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Yahoo! Finance

U.S. choices on climate change could cost $14.5 trillion — or generate $3 trillion: Deloitte report

Grace O’Donnell, Assistant Editor – February 16, 2022

Delaying the net-zero transition could cost the U.S. economy $14.5 trillion in the next 50 years, according to a recent report by Deloitte, while bold action on climate change could actually boost GDP and jobs.

The report gauged the macroeconomic consequences of two climate scenarios. In the first scenario, the U.S. takes no further steps to address climate change. In the second, the U.S. and other nations follow the pathways outlined in the Paris and Glasgow Agreements to draw down greenhouse gas emissions.

In that latter scenario of decarbonization, the U.S. economy could grow by $3 trillion over 50 years, according to the report. In the year 2070 alone, that amounts to an additional 2.5% increase of GDP.

The estimates demonstrate that “unchecked climate change, or insufficient action, that action in scenario A, is a costly choice for the U.S.,” Deloitte Deputy CEO Alicia Rose said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “And our analysis shows that a rapid transition to net-zero could truly drive a new Industrial Revolution and jump-start growth in the U.S. economy in the long term.”

A transition to net-zero would be transformational, touching every sector and region in the United States. It would also require historic investment, with estimates ranging from about $5 trillion to $9.2 trillion globally every year until 2050.

Despite this hefty investment, the cost of climate-related losses still dwarfs the cost of the transition, according to Deloitte’s model, which echoed similar findings from McKinsey and an Oxford Martin School working paper. Furthermore, that research has shown that a fast transition would be cheaper than a slower one.

“Economics is on the side of a low-emissions future,” the report’s authors stated. “Opportunely, the U.S. has the technology, capital, infrastructure, and skilled labor needed not only to make this transition possible, but to do so at the lowest possible cost.”

A downside to this, however, is that investment in a low-carbon future is front-loaded. As the U.S. economy shifts away from fossil fuels, the costs mount in the near term while the benefits accumulate later on. Assuming the U.S. adopts immediate climate measures, it would take until 2048 for the benefits to GDP and job growth outweigh the costs, meaning the process would defy short-term horizons and be subject to political and economic pressures until then.

‘Cascading effect’ of climate-related costs

Climate change is already disrupting businesses across the country that have already been impacted by climate-related costs.

From Hurricane Ida in the South to a rash of wildfires in the West amid a historic drought, an alarming number of extreme weather events and disasters struck the United States in 2021.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) registered 20 billion-dollar disaster events last year, which was also the fourth-warmest year in the NOAA’s 127-year record for the country. Scientists have linked each incremental degree of global warming to increases in the frequency and intensity of weather and climate events, resulting in new extremes.

“What we’ve continued to see over the course of years, decades at this point, is an acceleration of disaster losses from these larger-scale, more impactful events,” Steve Bowen, a meteorologist and head of Catastrophe Insights at Aon, said on Yahoo Finance Live. “And what we’re really seeing from a business standpoint is that it’s not just the physical location as to where events are occurring that’s leading to disruption to businesses and their outputs. It’s that it’s having this sort of domino effect, this cascading effect around the world, where it’s affecting supply chain, it’s affecting any type of manufacturing deliverables.”

Physical damage has already made a major financial impact. The U.S. suffered an estimated $169 billion in economic losses in 2021 due to damages associated with climate change, according to a report from Aon, which was 93% above average since 2000, and $92 billion in insured loss, 105% above average since 2000.

“We have a lot of areas that are what we call repetitive loss locations,” Bowen said. “So this is really causing a real reanalysis of the overall level of risk that companies are able to withstand, what they’re comfortable facing.”

Repetitive loss locations mean places with an increased prevalence of climate calamities. Those in the Northeast, for instance, face greater sea-level rise, whereas the energy sector concentrated in the Southeast and West would be particularly hard hit by extreme weather.

Moreover, impacts to business have been more far-reaching than isolated disaster incidents: Heat stress reduces productivity, sea-level rise sacrifices productive urban and agricultural land, damaged capital stalls productivity, overall health deteriorates under increased incidence of disease and mortality, tourism is disrupted, and agricultural yields can fall from changing climate patterns.

Businesses will need to navigate both kinds of risks and communicate their climate strategy to investors. And while climate risk disclosures are currently voluntary, pressure is mounting for federal regulatory bodies to require mandatory climate disclosures for U.S. companies.

As of now, most companies have not set needed climate targets, and those with targets have set weaker goals than are needed to reach net-zero.

“This is something that’s not going to go away as we continue to see more of these regulatory bodies, not just internationally, but here as well in the United States, really force companies to put some type of mandate together to highlight what they’re doing to diversify their portfolio, to wean off fossil fuels, or more importantly, just take climate change into account and have a plan,” Bowen said. “I think we’re going to see more and more of that in the future.”

Another area of the economy particularly susceptible to both climate and transition risks is labor.

Without making significant changes, around 900,000 jobs will disappear annually due to climate change, according to Deloitte. (At the same time, the Biden administration and environmental justice advocates have emphasized the need for a just transition that includes workers of all industries, including high-emitting ones.)

Four phases of the green transition

In its ideal second scenario, Deloitte mapped out the green transition and its effects on the U.S. economy in four phases.

Phase one is marked by bold climate policy plays that create the foundation for future decarbonization. From 2021 to 2025, that would take the form of huge government investments in climate tech and renewable electricity infrastructure. The impact of these shifts results in an average annual GDP loss of just 0.5% during this period.

In phase two, from 2026 to 2040, clean energy would increasingly displace hydrocarbons resulting in more transition pain points for the industrials and energy sectors. During this phase, GDP would fall just 0.2% annually as a result. At the same time, the clean energy sector would become the fastest-growing sector, adding 320,000 jobs each year.

Between 2041 and 2050, phase three would bring about the turning point in which the U.S. climate policies begin to pay off in the form of an additional 0.2% annually in GDP. However, regions reliant on fossil fuel industries could have a longer and more costly transition. The West and Southwest regional economies may not reach their turning points until after 2050.

Phase four would commence by 2050 should the U.S. achieve net-zero emissions. The Southeast would experience the most net-positive economic outcomes due to avoided climate disasters while a transformed energy sector would remain robust in the Southwest and potentially even add $500 billion annually to GDP by 2070.

While this optimistic scenario illustrates the stark choice ahead of the U.S. and other nations, other less-optimistic scenarios also abound, especially when factoring in the geopolitics surrounding the unequal distribution of climate risks and resources.

For instance, insurance company Lloyd’s and the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies presented three alternative scenarios: green globalization (most similar to Deloitte’s green transition scenario), climate anarchy, and a green cold war. In the latter two, the consequences for international markets include protectionist or polarized trade blocs.

Today, corporations do list obstacles to transitioning their business models, Rose explained. “Some of it is actually the difficulty in measuring the environmental impact of their own organizations,” she said. “Some of it’s the insufficient supply of sustainable and low emissions inputs in their own value chain.”

“But listing those does not change the need to actually push forward in order to achieve really the turning point that we highlight in the report of 2048. We really need to take action and start now,” she added.

As for economic risks and pressures, “we’re going to have to manage both,” Rose continued. “And again, any delay really increases the overall cost of the transition and pushes out the timing of that turning point where the gains actually exceed the cost.”

Grace is an assistant editor for Yahoo Finance.

USA Today

A Russian invasion could reach farther than Ukraine. How a cyberattack could affect you.

Josh Meyer and Kevin Johnson, USA TODAY – February 17, 2022

WASHINGTON – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s track record of unleashing destructive “hybrid warfare” cyberattacks has U.S. security officials fearing he could once again reach across continents and wreak havoc on unwitting Americans as worries about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine persist.

They call it the “spillover effect.” And they say the temporary takedown of some prominent Ukrainian military and financial sector websites Tuesday resembled the kind of prelude to more significant Russian cyberwarfare attacks that could get out of hand.

Russia has a long and demonstrated history of unleashing such powerful cyberweapons against its adversaries, former top Pentagon cybersecurity official Lucian Niemeyer told USA TODAY.

And once that happens, they can spread virtually anywhere – and potentially everywhere – without the ability to control them he said.

“Anytime we see that cyber is involved in an attack around the world, there’s always the potential that it can spread quickly and have unintended consequences,” said Niemeyer, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Energy, Installations and Environment from 2017 to 2021.

White House and U.S. intelligence officials had no comment on whether they believe the so-called Dedicated Denial of Services attacks on the websites of two large Ukrainian banks and the country’s defense ministry and Army were the work of state-sponsored Russian cyber warriors.

Such cyber ops are notoriously hard to attribute, especially given that nation states like Russia often use proxy criminal hacking groups to do their bidding, according to Niemeyer and other current and former U.S. cybersecurity officials.

More: Local governments are more vulnerable to cyberattacks than ever before. DHS wants mayors to step up.

But Putin, a former KGB officer, has a demonstrated history of using destabilizing cyberattacks – often much more destructive than Tuesday’s – in advance of sending in conventional military forces. That’s what happened in 2008, when low-grade attacks against Georgia’s Internet infrastructure preceded an all-out cyberwar that coincided with Russia’s invasion of its neighbor.

Cybersecurity experts say that marked the first time a known cyberattack coincided with a shooting war.

More: Homeland Security warns that Russia could launch cyberattack against US

Russia’s previous cyberattacks on Ukraine

Since then, the Kremlin also has used cyberattacks as an alternative to conventional warfare when trying to destabilize its enemies and undermine citizens’ confidence in their government and private institutions, experts and current and former U.S. officials say.

That’s especially the case with Ukraine, where Moscow is believed to be behind numerous cyberattacks for nearly a decade. In 2015 and 2016, the Kremlin planted malware in the neighboring country’s electric grid, disrupting power for hundreds of thousands of residents in the dead of winter.

By Wednesday morning, officials with Ukraine’s cybersecurity agency said in a briefing that some of their systems were still recovering from a digital assault that likely came from the sophisticated and well-funded adversary.

“The website of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine was disconnected from the external network to prevent the spread of cyberattacks. The site is not damaged, its full-fledged work will be restored in the near future,” official Victor Zhora said in tweet posted by Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection.

And while Ukrainian officials did not blame Russia specifically, the cyber agency tweeted, “We see a trace of foreign intelligence services. There are some similarities between this attack and those of January 14.”

In last month’s massive cyberattack, a warning popped up on numerous Kyiv government websites to “be afraid and expect the worst,” adding to an already tense situation. At the time, U.S. officials said they feared that Russia was preparing to create a false pretext to invade Ukraine if it didn’t get its way through diplomacy.

Whoever was responsible for Tuesday’s takedowns was trying to destabilize Ukraine at the height of its crisis with Russia, another Ukrainian official, Natalia Tkachuk, suggested during the briefing.

“We are witnessing a critical change in the mechanisms and purpose of cyberattacks,” Tkachuk was quoted as saying in the official Twitter feed of the briefing. “Previously, this was to obtain specific information for intelligence purposes or to disable them. Today it is a destabilization, a discrediting of the authorities.”

More: Dam releases, bank failures and poisoned water: Cyber pros warn worst cases are possible

Russian threat looms large

As President Joe Biden said in his Tuesday afternoon address, the looming threat of a full-scale Russian military invasion of Ukraine remains a very real possibility. “And if Russia attacks the United States or our allies through asymmetric means, like disruptive cyberattacks against our companies or critical infrastructure, we are prepared to respond,” he said.

“We’re moving in lockstep with our NATO Allies and partners to deepen our collective defense against threats in cyberspace,” Biden added.

Most cybersecurity experts and current and former U.S. officials interviewed by USA TODAY say Russia is unlikely to directly attack U.S. critical infrastructure, given the threat of countermeasures by Washington.

But it could launch a stealth cyberattack, perhaps through third-party hackers, as retaliation for the Biden administration’s hard line against any attack on Ukraine – and then deny that it played any role in it.

Former top U.S. officials from the White House, Pentagon and National Security Agency warned of just such a scenario in 2014, when Russia was enraged by the Obama administration’s sanctions over its aggressiveness toward Ukraine.

What’s far more likely, they say, is that such cyber weapons will be unleashed on targets in Ukraine.

Cloaking Russian cyberattacks

In some previous cyberattacks on Ukraine, including NotPetya, Russia has hidden extremely powerful “wiper” viruses that can delete entire networks in the form of far more routine-looking malware intrusions and ransomware attempts, Niemeyer said.

“They’ve got some of the best engineers in the world working on that perfect attack that can cloak itself and move laterally” from one computer network to another, said Niemeyer, CEO of Building Cyber Security, a non-profit international cybersecurity organization.

That’s just what happened in June 2017, when Russia’s military cyber-warfare specialists at its military intelligence agency, known as the GRU, targeted government agencies, banks and private companies doing business in Ukraine in an effort to destabilize them and undermine confidence, current and former U.S. officials say.

But the virus, later dubbed NotPetya, jumped the tracks and caused over $10 billion in damage worldwide in what has been described as the most destructive cyberattack ever. As many as 2,000 systems were affected, including the operations of some of the biggest multinational corporations in Europe and North America.

Danish shipping behemoth A.P. Moller-Maersk, the world’s biggest overseas cargo carrier, and even Russia’s own oil giant, Rosneft, were hit.

More: The next big cyberthreat isn’t ransomware. It’s killware. And it’s just as bad as it sounds.

One international pharmaceutical company, Merck, suffered $1.5 billion in U.S. damages in the NotPetya attack, even though its business was far removed from anything to do with Ukraine.

So far, there is no evidence that Russia is preparing to mount destructive cyberattacks even as it continues to negotiate a potential pullback of its forces from attack positions along the border with Ukraine.

More: Congress has tough words on Putin and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine but can’t agree on sanctions

But U.S. officials confirmed that they were on edge, and monitoring the situation for any developments. That includes intentional efforts by Russia to target U.S. critical infrastructure, and the spillover of cyberattacks on Ukrainian targets.

“We’ve known for years that Russia presages its military activities by conducting cyber operations in targeted countries,” said Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. “While these cyber attacks (Tuesday) are not destructive in nature, I worry that Russia could soon escalate, which could lead to spillover effects into American or NATO entities, like the NotPetya attack did in 2017.”

A ‘Shields Up’ warning from US

In recent days, the Department of Homeland Security has been warning local, state and federal law enforcement and government officials – and private sector leaders – to be on high alert for the possibility of cyberattacks in connection with a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Notably, the Russian government has used cyber as a key component of their force projection over the last decade, including previously in Ukraine in the 2015 timeframe,” DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said in a “Shields Up” warning. “The Russian government understands that disabling or destroying critical infrastructure – including power and communications – can augment pressure on a country’s government, military and population and accelerate their acceding to Russian objectives.”

“While there are not currently any specific credible threats to the U.S. homeland,” the agency added, “we are mindful of the potential for the Russian government to consider escalating its destabilizing actions in ways that may impact others outside of Ukraine.”

A Department of Homeland Security official confirmed to USA TODAY that top DHS cybersecurity official Jen Easterly spearheaded that effort, trying to raise awareness of the potential for Americans to get caught in the cyber-crossfire that could come with an escalation of hostilities.

Easterly, the director of DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, also took to Twitter on Saturday to urge U.S. officials to be especially vigilant about possible spillover – and intentional – hacks of critical U.S. infrastructure.

“Every organization in the US is at risk from cyber threats that can disrupt essential services,” Easterly warned in the tweet that included a link for CISA’s “Shields Up” campaign.

Easterly and other federal cybersecurity officials also urged local authorities to significantly lower their threshold for reporting any suspicious activity on their networks, especially power grids and other elements of critical infrastructure that could be especially damaged by a cyber-takedown.

“While there are no specific credible threats to the US homeland at this time, we are mindful of the potential for Russia to consider escalating its destabilizing actions in ways that may affect our critical infrastructure, to include cascading impacts as we saw w/NotPetya,” Easterly wrote. “ALL organizations must adopt a heightened posture of vigilance. The time to act is NOW.”

Russia could also launch a damaging cyberattack against Ukraine even if it ultimately backs down from a military invasion, said retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, the former director for Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Russia on the White House’s National Security Council during the Trump administration.

Gaming out what Russia has planned

Because such a cyber attack is usually considered “below the threshold of armed conflict,” Russia might view it as a way to continue to undermine the stability of its neighbor without triggering sanctions or other strong reactions from Washington and its NATO allies, said Vindman, who also served as the political-military affairs officer for Russia for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and as an attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.

“I don’t have any evidence to say that one is coming. But it falls completely within the bounds of the way the Russians would operate in this kind of situation,” he said. “The problem with these types of things, with cyber weapons, is that there are no borders. So a spillover effect on the U.S. is not just possible, it’s likely.”

Former U.S. cybersecurity and national security officials differ as to what Russia might do next – if anything.

More: The next big cyberthreat is something called killware

Brian Murphy, a former top Homeland Security and FBI official, said a possible spillover scenario remains a serious threat.

“The Russians remain reckless and once they take action in cyberspace they lose control of the outcome,” said Murphy, who retired last year after serving as acting undersecretary for Intelligence at the Department of Homeland Security. “Putin will continue to meddle in Ukraine and his hybrid warfare techniques will know no boundaries.”

But Chris Krebs, who was Easterly’s predecessor as director of CISA, said he didn’t believe Tuesday’s cyber attack in Ukraine should immediately be seen as a prelude for a Russian invasion.

“If this was an attack on a random government not involved in a geo-political crisis, I wouldn’t think much of it,” Krebs said. “But the fact that it coincides with a country facing the long specter of war, I think it bears further examination.”

Krebs said Russian hackers could target key U.S. government agencies, including the State and Treasury departments to probe for information about the promised U.S. sanctioning strategy in the event of an invasion.

“It is still not clear what Putin is going to do,” Krebs said. “But we do know from events of the past that the Russian intelligence services have a range of capabilities.”

For American business, Krebs said, officials should be preparing for the prospect that “something could happen.”

“You have to take this seriously; you have to prepare.”

Insider

Russia says it may be ‘forced’ to respond militarily if the US won’t agree to its unacceptable security demands on Ukraine

John Haltiwanger – February 17, 2022

• Russia warned it could be forced to respond militarily if the US doesn’t give in to its security demands.
• Russia has demanded that Ukraine be permanently barred from joining NATO.
• The US and NATO have been adamant that this is a non-starter.

Russia on Thursday warned it could be “forced to respond” militarily if the US doesn’t agree to its demands for binding security guarantees, including permanently barring Ukraine and Georgia from NATO. The US has repeatedly made it clear that this demand is a non-starter.

“In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees of ensuring our security by the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures,” the Kremlin said on Thursday in an 11-page response to written proposals submitted by the US in late January on Moscow’s security demands.

The US and NATO have firmly rejected Russia’s demand that Ukraine be forever banned from the alliance, stating that countries should be free to choose their own allies and defensive partnerships. Though Ukraine has sought to join NATO for years, it’s not on the formal track to become a member at any point in the near future. But with an estimated 150,000 troops surrounding Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that the issue be resolved now.

Putin has complained about NATO’s eastward expansion for years, ignoring the ways in which his aggressive behavior has pushed countries like Ukraine closer to the alliance and to the West more generally. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and annexed Crimea, and since that year has supported rebels in a war against Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region. Experts say Putin’s bellicose posture toward Ukraine is linked to his broader ambitions of seeing Russia regain the power and influence it enjoyed across the region and beyond during the Soviet-era.

Russia on Thursday once again denied any plans to invade Ukraine, despite its massive military buildup on the border of its next-door neighbor.

“There is no and is not planned any ‘Russian invasion’ of Ukraine, which the United States and its allies have been declaring at the official level since autumn last year, therefore statements about Russia’s ‘responsibility for the escalation’ cannot be regarded otherwise than as an attempt to put pressure on and devalue Russia’s proposals for security guarantees,” the Kremlin said.

Russia has gathered roughly 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s border, according to the Biden administration, which has warned that a Russian invasion could occur at any moment. On Tuesday, Moscow claimed it was withdrawing some troops from Ukraine’s border, but the US and NATO rejected this and said there have been no signs of Russian de-escalation.

The Biden administration has warned that Russia is looking for a pretext to invade, and could use covert operatives to stage some kind of sabotage to try to justify it.

“Russia says it’s drawing down those forces. We do not see that happening on the ground. Our information indicates clearly that these forces, including ground troops, aircraft, ships, are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, amid reports of shelling in eastern Ukraine.

CNN

Middle schoolers launched a boat from New Hampshire in 2020. It was found in Norway 462 days later

By Sara Smart, CNN – February 16, 2022

The boat traveled more than 8,000 miles and landed in Norway 462 days after it was launched in 2020.Mariann Nuncic/Educational Passage

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the ocean where the boat sailed. It was the Atlantic.CNN —  

A miniboat built by fifth graders took to the seas on October 25, 2020, charging off into the Gulf Stream for its maiden voyage. That voyage would take 5.5-foot-long Rye Riptides over 8,000 miles from home – all the way to the coast of Norway after 462 days at sea.

It began at Rye Junior High School, located about 50 miles east of Concord, through a not-for-profit program to spread ocean and environmental literacy called Educational Passage.

A tiny boat was discovered on a remote beach 27 years after it was launched by teachers

The miniboat program sends kits to students to help them learn things like science, technology, engineering, art, and math skills as well as building connections, Educational Passage’s executive director, Cassie Stymiest, told CNN on Tuesday.

Students build the GPS-tracked boat, fill it with items, decorate it and send it on its way. “It’s like a 21st century message in a bottle,” Stymiest said.

The boat, named Rye Riptides, traveled more than 8,000 miles and landed in Norway 462 days after it was launched in 2020.Sheila Adams/AP/FILE

The boat kit was originally purchased in 2018 by a now-retired teacher and each of her fifth-grade classes worked together to build it since then, according to Stymiest.

When the pandemic prevented this year’s class from finishing the decorating process, Stymiest volunteered to help out. Students sent their decorations to her and she put the finishing touches on the vessel, which they named Rye Riptides. On launch day, the students watched Riptides set off on Facebook Live.A 50-year pen pal friendship that began with a message in a bottle

In the months after the October launch, classes watched Riptides make its way up and across the Atlantic Ocean through data from the GPS tracker. Its last pinged location was on September 30, 2021, and Stymiest said they thought they had lost the boat when they didn’t see another notification for months.

But, on January 31, she noticed the location had changed. Riptides had landed on the coast of Smøla, Norway.

She immediately took to social media to reach out to the local community about retrieving the vessel. Then, on February 1, Mariann Nuncic responded that the boat was on an island near her house.

Karel Nuncic, left, took the vessel to his 6th grade class to open it with his classmates.Mariann Nuncic/Educational Passage

That afternoon, when her son, Karel, got home from school, the Nuncic’s got in their boat and searched the coast to find what was left of the miniboat.

And find it they did – Riptides was covered in Gooseneck barnacles, had lost its mast, and its hull and keel were no longer attached, but its precious cargo was still safe.

Karel, who also happens to be in the sixth grade, took the boat to his own class. They opened it to reveal the items inside, which including leaves, US quarters, and even a face mask with the students’ names on it.

The Rye Junior High students, who were now in sixth and seventh grade, were excited to hear about the recovery, Stymiest said.

The two classes are eager to meet each other and will do so on Thursday through Zoom, Stymiest said.

Going from New Hampshire to Smøla may seem like a lengthy journey for such a small boat, but Stymiest said it isn’t their longest. That award goes to a vessel sent from Massachusetts that landed in Australia.

EcoWatch

Corn-Based Ethanol Pollutes More Than Gas, Study Finds

Cristen Hemingway Jaynes – February 16, 2022

An ear of corn and a beaker of 200 proof ethanol produced at an ethanol production facility in Illinois. Photo Illustration by Scott Olson / Getty Images

For years, corn-based ethanol has been mixed with the gasoline sold at gas stations across the U.S., but a recently published study has found that its carbon intensity is “likely at least 24% higher” than gas, Roadshow by CNET reported.

The study, “Environmental Outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard,” was published by the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. It examined U.S. use of water and land resources from 2008 to 2016, during the country’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. The program was a national governmental policy that required a certain amount of fuel from renewable sources to reduce or replace heating oil, transportation fuel or jet fuel that was petroleum-based.

The study refutes earlier research commissioned by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) that showed that biofuels like ethanol were relatively clean, Reuters reported.

“Corn ethanol is not a climate-friendly fuel,” said assistant scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment Dr. Tyler Lark, who was the study’s lead author, as reported by Reuters.

The study was partially funded by the National Wildlife Federation and U.S. Department of Energy. It found that the combination of changes in land use made in order to grow corn, in addition to its combustion and processing, made corn-based fuel more polluting than gas.

Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of ethanol trade lobby the Renewable Fuels Association, referred to the study as “completely fictional and erroneous,” saying that “worst-case assumptions [and] cherry-picked data” were used by the study’s authors, as Reuters reported.

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, a 2005 law, requires that oil refineries in the U.S. combine 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol with their gas each year. The purpose of the law was to lower emissions while reducing the country’s dependence on imported fuel and supporting U.S. farmers.

The RFS resulted in an 8.7 percent increase in the cultivation of corn on an additional 6.9 million acres of land. Carbon that is stored in the soil is released during the tilling of fields.

According to Civil Eats, as corn prices went up by 30 percent as a result of the RFS, farmers planted more corn in place of other crops, cultivated pastures and tilled land that had been set aside for conservation. Rotating in soybean crops, beneficial for carbon storage in the soil, was often given up or reduced in favor of growing more corn.

“In places like Iowa, where farmers typically rotated corn and soybeans, we see a lot more continuous corn or three-year rotations of corn, corn, soybean,” said natural resource economist at the University of Iowa Silvia Secchi, as Civil Eats reported.

A 2020 study found that nitrogen from farms in the Midwest flowing downriver was the cause of as much as $2.4 billion worth of damages to fish and their habitat each year for over 30 years, and was a major contributor to the Gulf of Mexico’s “dead zone.”

As part of an effort to fight climate change and tackle U.S. carbon emissions, the Biden administration has been reviewing its policies on biofuels, reported Reuters. The fuel blending requirements under the RFS expire this year and the EPA will propose next year’s requirements in May.

“If this paper is discounted [in RFS deliberations], or we fail to acknowledge the net greenhouse gas effect of corn ethanol, we will be admitting this policy is all about income support for farmers,” Secchi said, as Civil Eats reported.

Senior researcher at Princeton University’s Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment Timothy Searchinger said the recent study shows that land use matters.

“It’s crazy to use this very limited resource — highly productive land — for energy,” said Searchinger, as reported by Civil Eats. “It’s almost spectacularly inefficient.”

The study focused on U.S. emissions, but the international impact could be much higher.

“The international effects are undoubtedly larger than the domestic effects,” Searchinger said.

It could be a pivotal year for biofuel and its related land use.

“Decisions made this year have the potential to impact our climate and landscape for decades to come,” stated Lark, as Civil Eats reported.

HuffPost

Watchdog Finds Trump Interior Boss Ryan Zinke Violated Ethics Rules, Misused Office

Chris D’Angelo – February 16, 2022

Ryan Zinke , Donald Trump’s first scandal-plagued head of the Interior Department, violated ethics rules and misused his office with his ongoing involvement in a real estate project in his hometown of Whitefish, Montana, the department’s internal watchdog concluded in a new report.

The report from Interior’s Office of Inspector General is yet another scathing rebuke of Zinke’s repeated false claims that internal probes against him were “B.S.” and that he was cleared of all wrongdoing — a drum that he continues to pound as he campaigns for Montana’s new congressional seat.

The real estate project, known as 95 Karrow, is financially backed by David Lesar, who was the chairman of oil giant Halliburton at the time. A foundation Zinke started and was president of before resigning to take over Interior ― The Great Northern Veterans Peace Park ― owns a 14-acre lot adjacent to the project site and initially agreed to allow developers to build a parking lot on the foundation’s land. Zinke also had hopes of opening a microbrewery on the site.

While in office and after stepping down as the foundation’s president, Zinke stayed in constant contact with project developers and “played an extensive, direct, and substantive role in representing the Foundation during negotiations” on the project, according to the inspector general report.

The inspector general concluded Zinke’s actions violated the department ethics agreement that he signed upon being confirmed as secretary. Investigators also concluded that Zinke knowingly provided incorrect and incomplete information when Interior ethics officials questioned him about his involvement, a violation of his duty of candor, and misused his official government position by directing Interior staff to assist him with matters related to the project and the foundation.

Investigators, however, did not find that Zinke violated federal conflict-of-interests laws since he did not participate in any Interior matters involving the real estate project. They also did not find that Zinke acted in his official capacity to specifically benefit Halliburton.

The inspector general referred its findings to the Justice Department, which last summer declined to prosecute Zinke’s actions, according to the report.

“Today’s report shows us yet again that former President Trump’s appointees didn’t view their positions at the highest level of our government as an opportunity to serve our country, but as an opportunity to serve the interests of their personal pocketbooks,” Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva (D-Ariz.), chair of the House Natural Resources Committee, said in a statement Wednesday. Grijalva is one of three House Democrats who called on the Interior’s internal watchdog to investigate the matter back in 2018.

In an email statement, Zinke’s campaign slammed the report as a “political hit job” and claimed investigators “didn’t even bother to talk to Ryan Zinke, staff or anyone else who was supposedly involved in the non-existent ‘negotiations.’”

“Only in Biden’s corrupt admin is talking to one’s neighbor about the town’s public meetings and history of the land a sin,” the campaign said.

The report was issued by Mark Greenblatt, the Trump-nominated inspector general of the Interior Department.

Investigators note in the report that Zinke and his wife, Lola, who took over as the foundation’s president after Zinke’s confirmation, refused multiple requests for an interview. The couple’s unwillingness to cooperate led to the inspector general issuing subpoenas to obtain developers’ phone and email records related to the project.

Zinke exchanged more than 60 emails and text messages, participated in up to five phone calls and met in person at least once with 95 Karrow developers while in office, investigators found. Among other things, those communications included discussions and negotiations about specific project design issues and Zinke’s interest in building and running a microbrewery.

When media outlets began asking about Zinke’s ongoing involvement with the project, he consulted with project leaders about how to respond. In one particular exchange, Zinke told a developer that an unnamed news organization was “not our friend” and stressed that he’d turned over all decision-making authority to the foundation’s board.

Jennifer Rokala, executive director of the conservation group Center for Western Priorities, said the report “confirmed what we’ve known all along — corruption was rampant in the Trump administration.”

“Self-dealing like this was par for the course. Ryan Zinke only got fired because he got caught,” she said in a statement. “It’s unfortunate that Attorney General [Merrick] Garland declined to pursue a criminal case against Secretary Zinke. The IG report makes it clear that Zinke broke the law when he ordered his staff to facilitate a meeting and private tour with the developers, one of whom was a top executive at Halliburton.”

Zinke faced at least 18 formal investigations during his tenure as head of the Interior Department, and ultimately resigned from his post in January 2019 under a cloud of scandals. He is now running for Montana’s new congressional seat.

On the campaign trail, Zinke has railed against resistance among Interior staff and dismissed investigations into his conduct as politically motivated.

“All of them ran their course,” he said of the probes during an August interview on the conservative podcast “Ruthless.” “No wrongdoing in the end, and there was no wrongdoing at the beginning.”

Not true then, not true now.

In 2019, the Office of Inspector General concluded that Zinke violated federal law when he tweeted a photo of himself wearing socks that featured Trump’s face and the words “Make America Great Again.” And in 2018, the agency watchdog determined that Zinke violated government travel policies by bringing his wife on taxpayer-funded trips and by asking staff to explore making her a department volunteer, a move that would have legitimized her travel.

CNN – Opinion

Putin could turn off Europe’s gas tap. This is the solution

Opinion by Tara Connolly – February 15, 2022

Tara Connolly is senior gas campaigner at Global Witness, an international NGO working towards a more sustainable, just and equal planet. She has over a decade of experience in EU energy policy. The views expressed in this commentary are her own.

(CNN)As Russian troops remain camped across several of Ukraine’s frontiers, Europe and the United States are scrambling to prevent an incursion, with a flurry of diplomatic efforts and by bolstering their own troops in nearby NATO countries.

Speculation over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions have ramped up from mere threats to actual war, but officials and pundits in Europe are jittery about another threat as well: Moscow could reduce — or even stop — the flow of fossil gas that the continent so heavily relies on.

There has been much talk of what Russia is trying to achieve geopolitically by fostering this reliance — to break up NATO, to split the European Union or alienate the US from its Western allies — but these other concerns are also pressing.

Soaring prices in a power crunch are driving millions of Europeans into energy poverty and the continent’s unfettered use of fossil gas is fueling the climate crisis. The solution should be self-evident — end our reliance on expensive, dirty, and overwhelmingly imported gas. This will require standing up to the powerful gas industry, and right now, far too few politicians seem willing to take this vital step.

This is by no means the first time Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian gas has been problematic. It was the same story during the last major flare-up with Ukraine in 2014, and Europe’s response — to simply find gas elsewhere — didn’t work then. It isn’t working now either.

In 2013, Russian imports accounted for around 27% of the European Union’s gas use. Instead of reducing reliance on Russia, nine years later, Europe remains more dependent on Russian gas than ever, with 38% of the EU’s supply now being piped from the country.

EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson has been holding urgent meetings with Azerbaijan and Qatar to boost the bloc’s gas supplies. Likewise, US President Joe Biden, a self-proclaimed climate champion, has been trying to ride to Europe’s rescue, and push his own ever-expanding plans for American liquefied natural gas exports.

On a practical level, it’s unlikely the US and its friends would be able to replace Russian gas in Europe quickly and effectively. Recent research by the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel, concluded that in the event of a rupture in Russian gas, the EU would run short and have to start cutting gas use altogether.

So, if Europe can’t do without Russia for gas, the question must be asked: Why not do without the gas?

Even if the US could bring a cavalry to Europe, more gas isn’t a long-term solution. The flag on the pipeline or ship is irrelevant — it’s Europe’s dependency on the fuel, regardless of where it’s from, that makes it so vulnerable to the vagaries of the global gas market.

Europe’s addiction to gas, and indeed the world’s, will have a deep impact on the future of our planet. The idea peddled by many in the fossil fuel industry that gas can help tackle the climate crisis by replacing coal is false. The International Energy Agency has said that the world should stop adding more capacity for gas if it wants to contain global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In the EU, gas is now responsible for more carbon emissions than coal. According to the European Commission’s own analysis, the continent must virtually eliminate fossil gas by 2050 to help keep global warming to 1.5C, although Global Witness believes it must be gone by 2035. Globally, between 2016 and 2019, fossil gas has been responsible for half of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions, according to data from the Global Carbon Project.

Methane, which can leak from almost every step in the gas supply chain, has more than 80 times the global warming power than carbon-dioxide in the short term. Methane has driven more than a quarter of all global warming to date. Not to mention the health risks attached to gas exposure both for communities near infrastructure and even in homes. A recent study by Stanford University showed, stoves used for cooking often leak methane even when turned off.

It’s not just followers of geopolitical tensions or those in the climate movement that should be concerned with this gas addiction. A sharp rise in gas prices has forced households across Europe into the impossible choice between heating and eating. In the UK, 22 million have been told their energy bills will rise by about £700 ($950) a year, which will hit the poorest the hardest. Recent, but as yet unpublished, figures crunched by the Global Witness data team found that consumer gas prices in the Netherlands and Estonia over the past year have increased by a staggering 62% and 122%, respectively.

As European households suffer, it’s a very different picture for major fossil fuel firms. Shell recently announced its most profitable fourth quarter in almost a decade, posting almost $20 billion in profit for 2021. ExxonMobil and Chevron recorded a combined $38.6 billion in profits last year. With other oil and gas majors set to post similarly strong years in the coming days — including Russia’s own Gazprom, which saw record-breaking Q3 profits — it’s a pointer as to just why politicians continue to back gas, despite all its associated woes.

Even with the tide turning against fossil fuels, many European lawmakers seem to continue to buy into the argument that the gas industry is vital for jobs and growth in their countries, even though the renovation and renewables sectors are already significant contributors to the economy with huge potential.

This is an industry that is directly benefiting from rising gas prices while ordinary citizens fall further into energy poverty and the climate crisis intensifies. It’s therefore no surprise that gas companies are pushing to keep gas locked in, using the two-pronged approach of lobbying and greenwashing. While announcing his company’s highest profits in eight years, the CEO of BP, Bernard Looney, called for even more investment into gas. And it’s clearly having the desired effect.

In December, the European Commission published its proposals to reform Europe’s gas market, in what could have been an opportunity to move towards the phaseout of gas. Worryingly, it chose to lock gas in for years to come, in line with calls from the gas industry.

The Commission’s proposals rest on the impossible assumption that fossil gas infrastructure — like pipelines — can eventually be used with substitutes by nascent technologies like hydrogen. In Europe’s existing networks, however, this would do little to reduce gas use, given most hydrogen is produced using fossil gas. There is little being done to challenge the power and influence of the fossil fuel companies at the heart of the gas market.

Another way is possible, but it requires a monumental shift. The huge political and financial support afforded to the fossil fuel industry needs to be redirected to give a much-needed boost for genuine solutions.

Modeling carried out by the Climate Action Network Europe and the European Environmental Bureau shows that the use of fossil gas could virtually be phased out by 2035. That would require accelerating deep renovations of Europe’s buildings, ramping up the deployment of renewable electricity technologies and the electrification of heating and transportation — all measures that are entirely realistic.

This includes accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, like wind and solar, so that we can replace gas with green electricity. Schemes to renovate large-scale buildings or to insulate homes and replace gas boilers with green heating solutions, like heat pumps and geothermal, would go a long way.

But, outrageously, the majority of the EU’s 27 member states still give more subsidies to fossil fuels than renewables.Europe’s deep gas dependency is impacting its citizens, the future of the planet and limiting its ability to shield from geopolitical threats. Already, rich big polluters in the gas industry — whether in Russia or elsewhere — are the only ones who stand to benefit from the status quo. European leaders should be putting in place plans to get Europe off gas as quickly as possible. This shouldn’t be a courageous act. It’s just common sense.

Scientists say this invisible gas could seal our fate on climate change

Europe’s plan to call natural gas ‘sustainable’ triggers backlash from climate campaigners

Good Morning America

Sandy Hook families settle with Remington marking 1st time gun maker is held liable for mass shooting

AAron Katersky – February 15, 2022

Remington Arms agreed Tuesday to settle liability claims from the families of five adults and four children killed in the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School, according to a new court filing, marking the first time a gun manufacturer has been held liable for a mass shooting in the U.S.

The settlement comes nearly eight years after the families sued the maker of the Bushmaster XM15-E2S semiautomatic rifle that was used in the 2012 mass shooting in Newtown, Connecticut.

More details will be announced at a news conference from the families.

On Dec. 14, 2012, Adam Lanza, 20, forced his way into Sandy Hook Elementary School, and in the course of 264 seconds, fatally shot 20 first-graders and six staff members.

Video: Survivors share how ‘teenage dreams’ disappeared after school shootings https://s.yimg.com/rx/martini/builds/39517272/executor.htmlScroll back up to restore default view.

MORE: Supreme Court clears way for Newtown shooting victim families to sue AR-15 gun-maker

The rifle Lanza used was Remington’s version of the AR-15 assault rifle, which is substantially similar to the standard issue M16 military service rifle used by the U.S. Army and other nations’ armed forces, but fires only in semiautomatic mode.

The families argued Remington negligently entrusted to civilian consumers an assault-style rifle that is suitable for use only by military and law enforcement personnel and violated the Connecticut Unfair Trade Practices Act through the sale or wrongful marketing of the rifle.

MORE: Sandy Hook families push to reinstate lawsuit against gun manufacturer

Remington, which filed for bankruptcy protection in July 2020, had argued all of the plaintiffs’ legal theories were barred under Connecticut law and by a federal statute — the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act — which, with limited exceptions, immunizes firearms manufacturers, distributors and dealers from civil liability for crimes committed by third parties using their weapons.

The settlement with the maker of the rifle used in the 2012 elementary school massacre marks the first time a gun manufacturer has been held liable in a U.S. mass shooting.

NBC News

Sandy Hook families reach historic $73M settlement with gunmaker Remington

Elizabeth Chuck – February 15, 2022

Relatives of nine victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting have reached a $73 million settlement with Remington, the maker of the rifle used in the massacre, marking the first time a gun manufacturer has been held liable for a mass shooting in the United States.

“Today marks an inflection point,” Veronique de la Rosa, the mother of six-year-old victim Noah Pozner, said at a press conference Tuesday. “Today is a day of accountability for an industry that has thus far enjoyed operating with immunity and impunity, and for this I am grateful.”

The landmark victory comes after a protracted legal battle over how Remington marketed its Bushmaster AR-15-style rifle, which was used in the December 2012 killings of the 20 first graders and six educators in Newtown, Connecticut. The gunman fatally shot his mother before the elementary school rampage, then killed himself.

In their lawsuit against Remington, which has since filed for bankruptcy, families of the victims argued that the gun maker irresponsibly marketed the weapon to at-risk young men such as the Sandy Hook shooter through product placement in violent video games.

Remington, based in Madison, North Carolina, has denied the allegations. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment from NBC News on Tuesday.

Attorney for the families, Joshua Koskoff, began Tuesday’s press conference by displaying photos of the victims and described details about the final days of their lives: the Hanukkah candles that Noah proudly lit for the first time; the favorite diner breakfast that fellow first-grader Jesse Lewis loved to eat; the Christmas music that teacher Victoria Soto would listen to on her drive into work.

Last July, attorneys for Remington offered nearly $33 million to the families to settle the suit. At the time, Koskoff praised Remington’s insurers for their offer, even though the families did not accept at the time.

“These families would pay everything, give it all back, just for one minute” more with their loved ones, Koskoff said Tuesday.

The path to a settlement was complicated, with the lawsuit making its way through the state Supreme Court after Remington argued it should be shielded under a federal law designed to prevent gun manufacturers from being held liable for crimes in which their guns were used. In 2019, the U.S. Supreme Court said it would allow the suit to go forward.

In September, a couple months after presenting its settlement offer, Remington subpoenaed school records of children and educators killed in the massacre.

Attorneys for the families immediately moved to seal the records.

“We have no explanation for why Remington subpoenaed the Newtown Public School District to obtain the kindergarten and first-grade academic, attendance and disciplinary records of these five schoolchildren,” Koskoff said, The Connecticut Post reported. “The records cannot possibly excuse Remington’s egregious marketing conduct, or be of any assistance in estimating the catastrophic damages in this case. The only relevant part of their attendance records is that they were at their desks on December 14, 2012.”

U.S. NEWS4-year-old girl missing since 2019 found alive, hidden under stairs in New York, police say

CORONAVIRUS Babies get Covid protection from mothers vaccinated during pregnancy, CDC says

USA Today

NY girl missing for 2 years found alive, stashed inside ‘small, cold and wet’ staircase

Matt Spillane, Poughkeepsie Journal – February 15, 2022

SAUGERTIES, New York — More than two years after she disappeared, a 6-year-old girl was found stashed under the staircase of a home in eastern New York.

The case broke Monday night when a detective pried open the staircase and found Paislee Shultis in a “small, cold, and wet” secret room, where she was hiding with her biological, “non-custodial” mother in a Fawn Road home, according to Town of Saugerties police.

Police arrested Paislee’s biological parents, who did not have custody of her and had been suspected of abducting her.

Saugerties police initially said Paislee disappeared in Cayuga Heights in Tompkins County, but Cayuga Heights police said Tuesday that was untrue. Saugerties police said in a Facebook post in 2020 that Paislee went missing in Spencer, a village in Tioga County. Saugerties police could not be reached for clarification Tuesday.

She had last been seen with Kimberly Cooper and Kirk Shultis Jr., police said at the time. Multiple police agencies had investigated numerous leads about Paislee’s disappearance, including several that led police to that Saugerties house. But each time police checked it out the residents denied any knowledge of the girl’s whereabouts.

It was not immediately clear with whom the girl was living when she disappeared.

Cooper and Shultis Jr. were arrested Monday, along with Kirk Shultis Sr., who owns the house on Fawn Road with his wife.

Police said the investigation is ongoing and more arrests are pending.

Paislee was taken to the police station, where she was met by paramedics. She was in good health and released to her legal guardian, police said.

The Ulster County District Attorney’s Office could not immediately be reached for more information.

‘Something out of place’

Police said Shultis Jr., the girl’s biological father, “resurfaced shortly after Paislee’s disappearance” and denied knowledge of his daughter’s whereabouts, and told police that he had not seen her since 2019, when he reported Cooper fled to Pennsylvania with his daughter.

During some follow-ups at the Fawn Road home, police said Shultis Jr. and his father allowed officers “limited access” to look around the home, “knowing the child and her abductor were hidden within the house and would not be found.”

The mystery of Paislee’s whereabouts was solved Monday, though, when police went to the Shultis’ home on a tip that Paislee was being held there. At 8:06 p.m. Saugerties police and state police took a search warrant to the house.

Shultis Sr. allegedly told police he did not know where Paislee was and he had not seen her since she was reported missing in 2019.

Police had been searching the house for more than an hour when Detective Erik Thiele noticed something odd about the way the steps were built on the staircase leading from the back of the home to the basement, where “something was out of place,” police said.

Thiele shined a flashlight through a crack between the wooden steps and saw what he thought was a blanket. The staircase seemed solid, police said, but they grabbed a tool and removed several of the wooden steps.

Detectives then “saw a pair of tiny feet,” police said, and after removing several more steps, they found Paislee and Cooper.

Cooper, 33, was charged with second-degree custodial interference and endangering the welfare of a child, both misdemeanors. She was also wanted on an arrest warrant issued through Ulster County Family Court, police said.

Cooper was arraigned in Saugerties Town Court and taken to the Ulster County Jail on the warrant.

Shultis Jr., 32, and Shultis Sr., 57, were both charged with first-degree custodial interference, a felony, and endangering the welfare of a child. They were both arraigned in Saugerties Town Court and released. They could not be reached for comment.

Cooper, Shultis Jr. and Shultis Sr. all had orders of protection issued against them to stay away from Paislee. They are due back in court Wednesday.