Underestimating Alvin Bragg’s case against Donald Trump is a historic mistake

Salon – Opinion

Underestimating Alvin Bragg’s case against Donald Trump is a historic mistake

Dennis Aftergut, Robert C. Gottlieb, Gerald B. Lefcourt – April 25, 2024

Donald Trump; Alvin Bragg Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images
Donald Trump; Alvin Bragg Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images

Prosecutors are off to a strong start in the Manhattan trial of Donald Trump. Their evidence is aimed at proving that the former president committed crimes by falsifying business records to cover up a pre-election payoff in 2016 meant to keep women who would have otherwise revealed some of his sexual scandals ahead of that presidential election silent. 

Some critics, including some very smart legal minds who have no love for Trump, don’t like the case. Boston University Law School Professor Jed Shugerman — who previously described to Salon “Trump abuses” at the Department of Justice as “using the system of prosecution to reward your political allies and to punish your opponents” — took major issue with the first criminal case against Trump to reach trial in an April 23 New York Times guest essay:

After listening to Monday’s opening statement by prosecutors, I still think the Manhattan D.A. has made a historic mistake. Their vague allegation about “a criminal scheme to corrupt the 2016 presidential election” has me more concerned than ever about their unprecedented use of state law and their persistent avoidance of specifying an election crime or a valid theory of fraud.

Shugerman went on to publicly accuse prosecutors of engaging in “an embarrassment of prosecutorial ethics and apparent selective prosecution.” But if you are to call the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference a “historic mistake,” you ought to have arguments that are as close to airtight as humanly possible. The ones in Professor Shugerman’s essay, lamentably, are not even legally persuasive.

Let’s put aside his description of the prosecution’s opening statement as “vague.” That’s not how former Trump impeachment counsel Norm Eisen reported it from the courtroom for CNN, or how reporters for The New York Times and the Washington Post described it.

The core of Shugerman’s faulty argument is that he sees “three red flags raising concerns about selective prosecution upon appeal” because of the “unprecedented” way in which the grand jury used the statute at issue – New York Penal Code §175.10 – to charge Trump with a felony. That offense – falsifying business records – becomes a felony only when committed with an “intent to commit or conceal another crime.”

As former prosecutors and as current defense lawyers, we know that the claim of selective prosecution is notoriously difficult for defendants to prove. Justice Juan Merchan, the seasoned judge presiding over the trial, rejected Trump’s claim, finding that he did not carry his burden of showing that the DA had discriminated against him by not prosecuting any other similarly situated individual. 

The reasoning is not mentioned in Shugerman’s Times essay yet it is a necessary element of proving selective prosecution in New York. Merchan also found that prosecutors had demonstrated that they had brought many other actions charging defendants with “falsifying business records with the intent to commit or conceal the commission of another crime.” 

But, Shugerman writes, there’s “no previous case of any state prosecutor relying on the Federal Election Campaign Act either as a direct crime or a predicate crime.” That, he says, is a “sign of overreach.”  

Wait! The case is unprecedented? Now there’s an understatement! 

Have we ever had a presidential candidate from New York against whom prosecutors have assembled strong evidence of falsifying information in business records to cover up a scandal on his way to winning election? Have we ever had such a man now seeking the voters’ approval for a return White House run?  

Rather than overreach, a novel use of the statute here is the sign of a prosecutor willing to extend the law to a new fact situation that society has a right and a duty to protect itself against. That is especially so when the case is brought to hold accountable someone whose company a different jury already found guilty of criminal tax fraud and falsifying business records, and who has been found to have committed massive civil fraud against the state.

Shugerman also emphasizes that there’s not even any other New York case that sustains the use of another jurisdiction’s statute – federal law in this case – as the “other crime” in. It’s not enough, he says, that prosecutors have cited multiple parallel New York appellate court decisions – ones sustaining the use of crimes from other jurisdictions to satisfy the “other crime” element in different New York criminal statutes.

Why not? The extension of parallel situations is precisely the kind of reasoning on which the law is built. Whenever new fact patterns arise, the law operates by analogy from contexts where it is established. That’s why Justice Merchan has endorsed it. 

Next, Shugerman says that a jury instruction endorsing the use of federal law violation as the “other crime” in another §175.10 case “doesn’t count” as precedent. Technically correct, but what that instruction shows is that another New York trial judge in a different case reached the same result that Justice Merchan reached here. That sounds like support for his decision and guidance for others in analyzing whether the prosecutors are making “an historic mistake.” 

The Boston University professor also takes issue with the Manhattan DA’s use of federal election law because, he says, the reliance on Trump’s alleged violation of state election law is flawed. He argues that state election law applies only to “public officers,” and “state statutory definitions of “public office” seem to limit those statutes to state and local races.”

But the essay omits the basis on which Justice Merchan rejected this argument. New York election law, he wrote, explicitly states it “shall govern the conduct of all elections at which voters of the state of New York may cast a ballot for the purpose of electing any individual to any party position or nominating or electing any individual to any federal, state, [or local] office . . . .” 

Further, Shugerman attacks the prosecutor’s election interference theory. He argues there is no precedent for satisfying the law’s “intent to defraud” requirement with an allegation that the defendant intended to defraud the general public. Shugerman says that “a conviction based on it may not survive a state appeal.”

Again, one is left to wonder why not. In the universe of threats to democracy, a candidate’s intent to defraud voters, if proven, is perhaps the most serious intent to defraud one can imagine. Trump is accused of seeking to deprive Americans, through deceit, of information most would have wanted to know about a candidate before deciding whether to make him president. The law is wise enough to take account of this element of a crime against democracy.

U.S. Supreme Court floats return to trial court for Trump in presidential immunity case

Minnesota Reformer

U.S. Supreme Court floats return to trial court for Trump in presidential immunity case

Jacob Fischler – April 25, 2024

Dozens of anti-Trump protesters gathered outside the U.S. Supreme Court on April 25, 2024, while the justices heard arguments about whether former President Donald Trump has immunity from prosecution on criminal charges related to his actions while in office. Photo by Jane Norman/States Newsroom.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Supreme Court appeared skeptical Thursday of former President Donald Trump’s argument he is immune from criminal charges that he tried to overturn his loss in the 2020 election.

But conservatives who dominate the court appeared open to returning key questions to a trial court, possibly delaying Trump’s prosecution beyond the November election — and essentially assisting the former president as he fights legal challenges on multiple fronts.

Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, has argued in a federal trial court and in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia that his actions following the 2020 election and leading up to the violent Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, were “official acts” conducted while still in office and therefore are not subject to criminal prosecution.

While court precedent establishes that U.S. presidents are immune to civil damages for their official acts, and to criminal prosecution while in office, the justices now must decide the unanswered question of whether former presidents are absolutely immune from criminal law.

At oral arguments Thursday in Trump v. United States, much of the discussion centered on what should be considered an official presidential act.

Trump’s lawyer, D. John Sauer, of St. Louis, argued that nearly everything a president does in office — including hypotheticals about ordering a military coup or assassinating a political rival — could be considered official acts.

While much of the court appeared skeptical of that broad view of official acts, several justices on the conservative wing asked about having the trial court determine what acts should be considered official. They also suggested prosecutors could drop sections of the four-count indictment against Trump that dealt with official acts.

The court’s three liberal justices voiced serious concerns about Trump’s immunity argument, with Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wondering aloud if the court accepting a broad view of criminal immunity for the president would make the Oval Office “the seat of criminal activity.”

The case is one of four in state and federal courts in which criminal charges have been made against Trump. On Thursday, he was in a New York state courtroom where he faces charges in an ongoing hush-money trial; the judge there did not allow him to attend the Supreme Court arguments.

Trial court determination

Conservative justices asked if they could avoid the constitutional question by having the trial court, presided over by U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, determine which parts of the allegations could be considered official or unofficial acts.

Special counsel Jack Smith and his team of prosecutors have indicated that prosecuting only Trump’s private conduct would be sufficient, Justice Amy Coney Barrett said.

“The normal process, what Mr. Sauer asked, would be for us to remand if we decided that there were some official acts immunity, and to let that be sorted out below,” Barrett said, referring to a process in which a case is sent back to a lower court. “It is another option for the special counsel to just proceed based on the private conduct and drop the official conduct.”

‘Absolute immunity’

Sauer argued, as he has for months, for “absolute immunity” from criminal prosecution for presidents acting in their official capacity.

No president who has not been impeached and removed from office can be prosecuted for official actions, Sauer said, broadly interpreting the meaning of official acts.

Liberal justices questioned Sauer about how far his definition of official acts would stretch. Trump’s attorney was reluctant to list any exceptions.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor asked a hypothetical that arose in a lower court: Would it be an official act for the president to order the assassination of a political rival?

“That could well be an official act,” Sauer answered.

He also answered Justice Elena Kagan that it could be an official act for a president to order a military coup, though Sauer said “it would depend on the circumstances.”

Michael R. Dreeben, representing the U.S. Department of Justice, argued that Trump’s broad view of presidential immunity would break a fundamental element of U.S. democracy, that no one is above the law.

“His novel theory would immunize former presidents for criminal liability for bribery, treason, sedition, murder, and here, conspiring to use fraud to overturn the results of an election and perpetuate himself in power,” Dreeben said.

Jackson, questioning Sauer, appeared to agree with that argument.

She said Sauer appeared worried that the president would be “chilled” by potential criminal prosecution, but she said there would be “a really significant opposite problem if the president wasn’t chilled.”

“Once we say, ‘No criminal liability, Mr. President, you can do whatever you want,’ I’m worried that we would have a worse problem than the problem of the president feeling constrained to follow the law while he’s in office,” Jackson said.

‘A special, peculiarly precarious position’

But other members of the court appeared more amenable to Sauer’s argument that subjecting presidents to criminal prosecution would constrain them.

Justice Samuel Alito, one of the court’s conservatives, asked Dreeben about Trump’s argument that a president’s duties require a broad view of immunity.

The president has to make difficult decisions, sometimes in areas of law that are unsettled, Alito said.

“I understand you to say, ‘If he makes a mistake, he makes a mistake, he’s subject to the criminal laws just like anybody else,’” Alito said. “You don’t think he’s in a special, peculiarly precarious position?”

Dreeben answered that the president has access to highly qualified legal advice and that making a mistake is not what generally leads to criminal prosecution.

He also noted that the allegations against Trump involve him going beyond his powers as president to interfere with the certification of an election, which is not a presidential power in the Constitution.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson warns of the Oval Office turning into a ‘crime center’ if Trump gets the sweeping immunity he wants

Business Insider

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson warns of the Oval Office turning into a ‘crime center’ if Trump gets the sweeping immunity he wants

Brent D. Griffiths – April 25, 2024

  • Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson seemed alarmed about Trump‘s ask for sweeping immunity for presidents.
  • Jackson wanted to know how future presidents would be disincentivized to commit crimes.
  • She expressed fear it could turn the Oval Office into “the seat of criminal activity in this country.”

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was animated on Thursday when she discussed the potential of what could happen to the presidency if the Supreme Court were to grant presidents the sweeping immunity former President Donald Trump is seeking.

“The most powerful person in the world with the greatest amount of authority could go into office knowing there would be no potential penalty for committing crimes,” Jackson said during oral arguments. “I’m trying to understand what the disincentive is from turning the Oval Office into, you know, the seat of criminal activity in this country.”

Trump’s lawyer, John Sauer, argued for sweeping absolute immunity for former presidents that would shield Trump from special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution related to efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. As multiple justices outlined during oral arguments, the issues in the case could have major implications for the future of the presidency.

Jackson appeared alarmed that some of her colleagues, especially some of the court’s conservatives, seemed more afraid of limiting presidential immunity the court would neuter by the presidency by forcing future leaders to question if a political rival would try to prosecute them after they left office.

Instead, Jackson said there should be at least equal consideration given to the possibility that by granting sweeping immunity, the nation’s highest court would give a green light to presidential criminality if a future president could even tangentially tie criminal actions to carrying out the job of leading the nation.

“Presidents from the beginning of time have understood that that’s a possibility,” Jackson said later of how past leaders understood they could be prosecuted after leaving office. “That might be what has kept this office from turning into the kind of crime center that I’m envisioning.”

Jackson repeatedly underlined her points when questioning Sauer, underlining how far future presidents could push the envelope. She seemed particularly drawn to a brief filed by Georgetown Law School professor Martin Lederman that outlined how presidents with immunity could commit perjury, destroy or conceal documents, or bribe other public officials.

Jackson’s concerns are based on another element of Trump’s arguments, which propose that a president could not be charged with a crime unless the law they are accused of violating specifically mentions that it applies to the presidency.

The court’s newest justice has considered Trump’s conduct and the power of the presidency before. As a Circuit Court judge, Jackson torched the Trump White House for arguing that former White House counsel Don McGahn didn’t have to cooperate with Congress’ investigation.

“Stated simply, the primary takeaway from the past 250 years of recorded American history is that Presidents are not kings,” Jackson wrote in 2019. “Rather, in this land of liberty, it is indisputable that current and former employees of the White House work for the People of the United States, and that they take an oath to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

Manhattan prosecutors reveal election crime driving Trump’s hush money case

Independent

Manhattan prosecutors reveal election crime driving Trump’s hush money case

Alex Woodward – April 24, 2024

Donald Trump claims Joe Biden has 'abandoned' Israel

A critical question hovering over Donald Trump’s criminal case in New York is whether prosecutors can convince a jury that the former president’s alleged falsification of business records can be tied to a “primary” crime.

Mr Trump is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records, which – on their own – are misdemeanor offences.

But Manhattan prosecutors have elevated those charges to felonies by tying them to another offence – one that involves a conspiracy to manipulate an election.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and his office believe the case is relatively straightforward when it comes to the so-called hush money scheme – there are cheques, business ledgers, emails and text messages that allegedly point to a cover-up to classify payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels as “legal expenses”.

Those charges are bumped up to felonies if they are done with the intent to “commit another crime or to aid or conceal” one.

The crimes at the heart of the case stem from an alleged scheme to bury politically compromising stories involving then-candidate Mr Trump and his alleged affairs in order to protect his chances of winning the 2016 presidential election.

On Tuesday, prosecutors suggested that Mr Trump falsified those business records with the intent to commit or conceal a conspiracy to “promote” his election through “unlawful means”.

Under section 17-152 of New York election law, “any two or more persons who conspire to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means and which conspiracy is acted upon by one or more of the parties thereto, shall be guilty of a misdemeanor”.

Prosecutors began outlining those “other” crimes in court filings one month after Mr Trump was indicted last year. Justice Juan Merchan allowed them to move forward on three of them – including section 17-152, as well as crimes involving tax fraud and campaign finance violations.

During witness testimony this week, Manhattan Assistant District Attorney Joshua Steinglass hinted that his challenged line of questioning was relevant to the “primary” underlying crime under section 17-152.

A courtroom sketch depicts Manhattan prosecutor Joshua Steinglass questioning David Pecker during Donald Trump’s hush money trial on 23 April (REUTERS)
A courtroom sketch depicts Manhattan prosecutor Joshua Steinglass questioning David Pecker during Donald Trump’s hush money trial on 23 April (REUTERS)

While questioning former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker about the “catch and kill” scheme arranged with Mr Trump and his then-personal attorney and “fixer” Michael Cohen, Mr Steinglass asked about Mr Pecker’s meetings with Steve Bannon, one of Mr Trump’s chief advisers.

Mr Bannon told Mr Pecker that they would “work very, very well together” during Mr Trump’s 2016 campaign, the former tabloid chief testified.

Defence attorney Emil Bove objected to the questions, alleging hearsay. But Mr Steinglass argued that questions tying Mr Pecker’s work with the campaign struck at the heart of the “primary” election crime that is driving the prosecution’s case.

During opening statements on Monday, Assistant District Attorney Matthew Colangelo also underscored the stakes of the case against the former president.

“This case is about a criminal conspiracy and a cover-up,” he said. “The defendant Donald Trump orchestrated a criminal scheme to corrupt the 2016 presidential election. Then he covered up that criminal conspiracy by lying in his business records, over and over and over again.”

Hush money, non-disclosure agreements and “catch-and-kill” arrangements aren’t illegal, per se, and “no politician wants bad press,” as Mr Colangelo said.

“But the evidence at trial will show that this was not spin or communications strategy,” he added. “This was a planned, coordinated, long-running conspiracy … It was election fraud. Pure and simple.”

Mr Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges and has accused the district attorney’s office of running an election interference campaign against him.

In Ukraine’s old imperial city, pastel palaces are in jeopardy, but black humor survives

Los Angeles Times

In Ukraine’s old imperial city, pastel palaces are in jeopardy, but black humor survives

Laura King – April 21, 2024

Church personnel inspect damages inside the Odesa Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa, Ukraine, Sunday, July 23, 2023, following Russian missile attacks. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Church personnel inspect damage from Russian missile attacks at the Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa, Ukraine. The cathedral is in the historic city center, a UNESCO-designated site. (Jae C. Hong / Associated Press)

On a cool spring morning, as water-washed light bathed pastel palaces in the old imperial city of Odesa, the thunder of yet another Russian missile strike filled the air.

That March 6 blast came within a few hundred yards of a convoy carrying Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who was touring the country’s principal shipyard with the visiting Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotaki.

It was a close call, but Ukrainian officials said that in all likelihood the two leaders were not the target. Like so many other strikes during what Ukrainians call the “big war” — ignited by Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022 — the attack was aimed at Odesa’s port, a strategic prize of centuries’ standing.

The Black Sea harbor and its docklands — Ukraine’s commercial lifeline and a prime military asset — have been the object of intensifying Russian drone and missile attacks in recent weeks, as Ukraine’s dwindling air defenses leave critical infrastructure vulnerable across the country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis walk near trees in Odesa, Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, center left, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, center right, walk in Odesa, Ukraine, on March 6. The sound of a Russian airstrike a few hundred yards away reverberated around the port city as they ended their tour. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

In Odesa, the deadly campaign of airstrikes has brought sharply renewed peril to nearly a million inhabitants of one of Ukraine’s most eclectic and cosmopolitan cities, known in equal measures for its people’s mordancy and joie de vivre. And it poses a heightened threat to a world-renowned cultural treasure: the jewel-box grid of streets making up Odesa’s UNESCO-designated historic center, which abuts the port.

Read more: Ukrainians contemplate the once unthinkable: Losing the war with Russia

After a string of attacks on Odesa and its environs, those who watch over the city’s landmark structures are braced for the worst. On many ornate facades in the city center, full-length windows topped with curlicued pediments are boarded over. Inside, as periodic power cuts permit, workers sweep up shattered masonry and painstakingly restore ruined grand staircases.

“It’s very, very difficult work to safeguard these beautiful old buildings,” said Oleksei Duryagin, who heads a firefighting team that works out of a headquarters dating back to the city’s days of horse-drawn fire wagons. “Whenever they try to hit the port, which is what they try to hit, everything here is in danger.”

Because of the building materials used — wood, flammable insulation within the walls — the 19th century buildings that line Odesa’s cobblestone, tree-lined central streets are especially susceptible to fire or collapse. First responders undergo special training in how to fight blazes in structures like Odesa’s sumptuous opera house, perched on a promontory above the seafront.

“From basement to ceiling, I know these buildings like my old friends,” said Duryagin, 52, who has more than three decades of firefighting experience. “I know their mysteries.”

Falling debris from airborne interceptions, rather than direct drone or missile strikes, has caused some of the most serious destruction. Some sites, like the city’s Fine Arts Museum, which is housed in a reconstructed palace, were hit again before they could be cleaned up after an initial attack.

The boarded-up windows on Odesa's Museum of Western and Eastern Art.
The windows on Odesa’s Museum of Western and Eastern Art are boarded up as Russian forces continue to target the port city. (Laura King / Los Angeles Times)

Early in the war, the museum whisked most of its art treasures into hiding. Some display areas are closed off for repairs, and big niches that once held priceless artworks are starkly blank. But the museum remains open to culture-hungry visitors, who must periodically be hustled into its underground shelter when air alerts sound.

Most of the exhibits now have a somber martial theme, including a striking collection of botanical watercolors by a 48-year-old Ukrainian army captain, Borys Eisenberg, an artist and landscape architect who volunteered on the first day of Russia’s invasion and was killed last year on the front lines. His delicate, violet-veined works on paper are mounted on the wooden lids of ammunition boxes.

“You can see that even looking out from the trenches, he found beauty,” said Irina Kulabina, 66, a retired engineer who helps out at the museum. “It’s really important. We should believe in life more than death.”

At Odesa’s Transfiguration Cathedral, the city’s largest Orthodox Christian church, a young priest named Father Alexei gazed out at blue sky through a gaping hole punched in an outer wall during a missile attack last July. He wondered aloud if fresh attacks would outpace rebuilding.

Rubble lies on the floor and walls are charred and blackened inside Odesa's Transfiguration Cathedral.
The blackened interior of the Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa. (Laura King / Los Angeles Times)

“We just don’t know what else is to come,” said the 28-year-old cleric, who came to Odesa as a refugee from a front-line town in the eastern province of Luhansk.

While repairs slowly progress, services are held in a cavernous, basement-level secondary space, lighted only by flickering candles and lanterns whenever the electricity goes out. After the July strike, congregants converged on the landmark church, helping to gather artifacts scattered by the blast.

Read more: After an artist’s studio was damaged in a Russian missile strike, he found a new medium: war debris

“It was really shocking for everyone,” said Father Alexei. Zelensky said at the time that hitting the cathedral amounted to targeting “the foundations of our entire European culture.”

Last month was a particularly deadly one for the city and its outskirts.

March 2 drone attack wrecked a nine-story building, killing a dozen people. Five more perished in the strike four days later that narrowly missed Zelensky and the Greek leader. A missile and drone barrage on March 15 left 21 dead, including a paramedic killed in a dreaded “double tap,” in which first responders are targeted, seemingly deliberately, by strikes aimed at the same site a few moments apart to give rescuers time to arrive.

Buildings are seen through a damaged greenhouse roof.
The roof of a greenhouse damaged by a Russian missile attack in the botanical garden of Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University. (Future Publishing via Getty Images)

More recently, on April 10, six people, including a 10-year-old girl, were killed in a strike on an outlying district of Odesa. That attack came on the 80th anniversary of Odesa’s liberation from Nazi forces during World War II.

The Odesa port and two others on the nearby seacoast have been a particular target of Russian wrath for the last eight months, since Ukraine managed to open a coast-hugging 350-mile Black Sea grain corridor to the Bosporus strait.

At the war’s outset, world grain prices jumped as Ukraine exports slumped, causing hardship in some of the world’s most impoverished countries. Now, though, almost 40 million tons of cargo have been shipped since August 2023, port officials said.

“Sometimes we spend all night in a shelter, then take a coffee and go straight to work — this is our reality,” said Dmytro Barinov, the deputy head of the state-owned Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority. “We feel responsibility not only for the Ukraine economy, to our farmers, but to the whole world that relies on our grain exports.”

As attacks continue and the overall war outlook grows grimmer, the city veers between a sense of relative safety and an acute awareness of peril.

Central cafes are full, and people linger at ice cream stands on the promenade. In flat green fields less than half an hour to the east, though, crews scatter pyramid-shaped reinforced cement antitank obstacles known as “dragon’s teeth.”

An ice cream stand on a public promenade
An ice cream stand on the promenade near the Potemkin Stairs, Odesa’s most famous landmark. Disused “tank traps” on the corner of a main boulevard in Odesa’s center. Laura King / Los Angeles Times

Odessa’s most famous landmark, the Potemkin Stairs — best known for the harrowing tumbling-baby-carriage scene in the 1925 film “Battleship Potemkin” — are topped with a roll of barbed wire. But a military checkpoint a few blocks away has been removed, and pedestrians can draw close enough to gaze down the 192 steps leading to the seafront.

The source of the city’s splendor is now the principal cause of its jeopardy. Odesa’s free port status financed its extraordinary architectural flowering in the 1800s and helped build its vibrant multiethnic society.

Russian warships have been driven back from Ukraine’s Black Sea coast — “when the big war started, we could see them from our palaces,” said naval spokesman Dytro Pletenchuk — but only 150 nautical miles to the east-southeast lies the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, from which many strikes are launched.

At that range, there is little time for people in Odesa to get to shelter once missiles are in the air.

Read more: In a storied Ukrainian city, a dance with wartime destiny

Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea and its fomenting of a separatist conflict in Ukraine’s east were a precursor to the current invasion. Many here harbor ardent hopes of someday recapturing the peninsula, and are heartened by Ukrainian strikes on Russian forces there, including a damaging attack Wednesday on a large Russian airfield.

At the National Academic Opera and Ballet Theater — where April offerings include the ballet “Giselle” and Verdi’s opera “Nabucco” — the show goes on, as it has almost continuously since the start of the conflict. The neo-Baroque opera house is no longer sandbagged, but the war still feels ever present.

Odesa's opera house, formerly protected with sandbags.
Odesa’s opera house, formerly protected with sandbags. Performances and rehearsals are often interrupted by air alerts. (Laura King / Los Angeles Times)

“After night bombings come the most difficult days: Actors, singers and dancers are just physically tired, and it’s hard to deliver the emotional spectrum in their performances,” said Oksana Ternenko, 50, a stage director.

“Sometimes it’s like a theater of the absurd,” she said. “We are starting to rehearse, and a singer is showing photos on the phone: ‘Look, here’s a piece of my house that fell on my car.’ ”

Despite all, Odesa maintains an irrepressible offbeat humor.

A man dances on a brick path as musicians play.
A man dances during the Festival of Humor, which has been taking place in Odesa on and around April Fools’ Day since 1973. (Nina Liashonok / Getty Images)

“My parents and I, we’re very happy that Granny is deaf, so the explosions don’t scare her,” said 14-year-old Alina Kulik, who lives in an outlying district that has been hit repeatedly.

“Right now, we’re in a place that’s a little dangerous,” said her 15-year-old friend Anastasia Jelonkina, as the two girls perched on a promenade bench overlooking the seaport. “We know that. But here we are!”

Odesa’s beaches, beloved by tourists before the war and by locals all along, are full again as spring temperatures rise. During much of the last two years, danger from mines and debris from destruction of a massive dam on the Dnipro River kept the shoreline largely closed.

Sunbathers flock to an Odesa city beach.
Sunbathers flock to an Odesa city beach. De-mining efforts allowed the reopening of the seashore. (Laura King / Los Angeles Times)

But intensive de-mining efforts have rendered the sea off Odesa relatively safe for swimming again, and a tousle-haired Irina Khosovana, a 62-year-old doctor who is a fifth-generation Odesan, said nothing — not even periodic air alerts — could keep her away.

“The sea is our comfort,” she said, gesturing toward the blue expanse. “Coming here is as important as life.”

A largely Russian-speaking city at the start of the war, Odesa still has deep cultural roots in common with the enemy now battering its shores. The poet Pushkin is still revered, with a grand boulevard named for him and a big statue taking pride of place in front of the city council building.

But another prominent piece of statuary near the opera house was deemed a symbol of colonialist oppression — that of the Russian empress known as Catherine the Great. Her likeness, hauled down in the war’s first year, is now boxed up in a black lean-to outside the damaged art museum.

Atop the empty plinth where the statue once stood flies a blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flag.

US can send fresh weapons to Ukraine ‘within days’

The Telegraph

US can send fresh weapons to Ukraine ‘within days’

Tony Diver – April 20, 2024

Speaker Mike Johnson talks to reporters after the House voted to approve the aid to Ukraine
Speaker Mike Johnson talks to reporters after the House voted to approve the aid to Ukraine – J. Scott Applewhite/AP

US weapons could be sent to Ukraine within days, after the House of Representatives voted to approve more than $60 billion (£48.5 billion) in military aid.

Kyiv’s army has resorted to increasingly desperate measures amid dwindling supplies of key missiles and relentless Russian bombardment that has translated into frontline advances.

Some troops have had to rely on civil society donations of items like drones or have started using decoy air defence systems to draw away enemy fire.

The Pentagon has already moved stockpiles of the most-needed arms closer to Ukraine’s borders in anticipation of the bill passing so that they could be sent to Kyiv at short notice.

Joe Biden’s “supplemental” bill on foreign aid funding has been held up for months in Congress amid opposition from Republicans.

Joe Biden's "supplemental" bill on foreign aid funding has been held up for months
Joe Biden’s “supplemental” bill on foreign aid funding has been held up for months – Alex Brandon/AP

On Saturday night the House voted to approve the package, sending it on to the Senate, where it is expected to pass early this week.

Chuck Shumer, the Democrat majority leader in the Senate, has suggested it could be approved as early as Tuesday. Mr Biden has said he will sign the bill as soon as it reaches his desk.

The aid package replenishes a Pentagon budget that can be accessed by Mr Biden through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), a power used for foreign aid purchases.

It allows the White House to send existing US military stockpiles to another country. More than $40 billion worth of equipment has been sent to Ukraine using this method since the start of the war in February 2022.

Maj Gen Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s press secretary, said this week that the US had already moved weapons closer to Ukraine in the hope the bill would pass, allowing them to be moved more quickly.

“We have a very robust logistics network that enables us to move material very quickly,” he said. “We can move within days.”

The main aid requests from Ukraine to other allies in recent months have been for air defence missiles to protect the country’s cities from Russian attacks, and shells to use on the front lines in the East.

Ukraine's front line has been feeling the strain
Ukraine’s front line has been feeling the strain – ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP

The next package is likely to include ATACMS missiles, which have already been sent in limited quantities to the front line, and Patriot missiles for Ukraine’s air defence systems.

The most recent round of aid, which was drawn from savings in the existing Pentagon budget, included munitions for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

The US stores some 155 million howitzer rounds in Europe, and could send them to Ukraine within days.

The global supply of rounds began to fall in recent months after the US budget for Ukraine aid dwindled and European manufacturers were unable to keep up with demand.

William Burns, the director of the CIA, has said that without speedy assistance from the US, Ukraine could lose the war against Russia this year.

Despite initial plans for a spring offensive this year, Ukraine has resorted to defending its existing front lines against Russian troops, without the weapons or personnel to launch a new push into Crimea.

The military draft in Ukraine was this week lowered to include men aged over 25, from its previous level of 27.

As the war in Ukraine has progressed, the US has agreed to send increasingly expensive military systems to Kyiv, including the Abrams tank.

An Abrams tank in Ukraine
An Abrams tank, which have been provided by the US, in Ukraine – X

Russia has also stepped up its defence procurement since February 2022, and has received drones from Iran and missile technology from China, according to US officials.

The Pentagon hopes that the package approved in the House on Saturday will be enough to meet America’s defence commitments to Ukraine until the presidential election, which will be held in November.

Republican efforts to stall the aid ramped up in recent months amid pressure from Donald Trump, the GOP’s nominee, who has opposed further spending and promised to end the war “in one day” if he wins the election.

Despite Mr Zelensky’s requests for advanced fighter jets from the US, planes are unlikely to be approved from the US.

Last year, Mr Biden approved some F-16 fighter jets to be sent to Ukraine from Denmark, under a rule that allows the US government to determine which countries can use planes that American manufacturers have produced.

The Pentagon has also agreed to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the planes, including at the Morris Air Force Base in Arizona.

MAGA Republican’s in congress are to blame: Russia pummels exhausted Ukrainian forces with smaller attacks ahead of a springtime advance

Associated Press

Russia pummels exhausted Ukrainian forces with smaller attacks ahead of a springtime advance

The Associated Press – April 19, 2024

FILE – A Su-25 plane is seen firing rockets over Ukraine in a video frame grab. The video was taken from inside another Su-25 plane and released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Jan. 22, 2024. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)
A Su-25 plane is seen firing rockets over Ukraine in a video frame grab. The video was taken from inside another Su-25 plane and released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Jan. 22, 2024. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)
FILE - A Ukrainian officer with the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Mariupol Brigade fires rockets from a pickup truck at Russian positions on the front line near Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region on March 5, 2024. The outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian troops are struggling to halt Russian advances as a new U.S. aid package is stuck in Congress. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)
A Ukrainian officer with the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Mariupol Brigade fires rockets from a pickup truck at Russian positions on the front line near Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region on March 5, 2024. The outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian troops are struggling to halt Russian advances as a new U.S. aid package is stuck in Congress. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)
FILE – This frame grab from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Feb. 20, 2024, shows one of its Su-25 ground attack jets firing rockets during a mission over Ukraine. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)
This frame grab from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Feb. 20, 2024, shows one of its Su-25 ground attack jets firing rockets during a mission over Ukraine. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)
FILE - Ukrainian servicemen with the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade fire a mortar at Russian forces on the front line near the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, on March 3, 2024. The outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian troops are struggling to halt Russian advances as a new U.S. aid package is stuck in Congress. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)
Ukrainian servicemen with the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade fire a mortar at Russian forces on the front line near the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, on March 3, 2024. The outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian troops are struggling to halt Russian advances as a new U.S. aid package is stuck in Congress. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)
FILE - Ukrainian soldiers carry shells to fire at Russian positions on the front line, near the city of Bakhmut, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, on March 25, 2024. The outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian troops are struggling to halt Russian advances as a new U.S. aid package is stuck in Congress. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)
Ukrainian soldiers carry shells to fire at Russian positions on the front line, near the city of Bakhmut, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, on March 25, 2024. 
FILE - Ukrainian soldiers with the 22nd Mechanized Brigade prepare to launch the Poseidon H10 Middle-range drone near the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region on March 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)
Ukrainian soldiers with the 22nd Mechanized Brigade prepare to launch the Poseidon H10 Middle-range drone near the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region on March 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

Russian troops are ramping up presure on exhausted Ukrainian forces to prepare to seize more land this spring and summer as muddy fields dry out and allow tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy equipment to roll to key positions across the countryside.

With the war in Ukraine now in its third year and a vital U.S. aid package for Kyiv slowed down in Congress, Russia has increasingly used satellite-guided gliding bombs — which allow planes to drop them from a safe distance — to pummel Ukrainian forces beset by a shortage of troops and ammunition.

Despite Moscow’s advantage in firepower and personnel, a massive ground offensive would be risky and — Russian military bloggers other experts say — unnecessary if Russia can stick to smaller attacks across the front line to further drain the Ukraine military.

“It’s potentially a slippery slope where you get like a death by a thousand cuts or essentially death by a thousand localized offensives,” Michael Kofman, a military expert with the Carnegie Endowment, said in a recent podcast to describe the Russian tactic. If the Russians stick to their multiple pushes across the front, he said, “eventually they may find more and more open terrain.”

Last summer’s counteroffensive by Ukraine was doomed when advancing Ukrainian units got trapped on vast Russian minefields and massacred by artillery and drones. The Russians have no reason to make that same mistake.

UKRAINIAN FORCES EXPOSED

Last November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered his forces to build trenches, fortifications and bunkers behind the more than 1,000-kilometer front line, but analysts say construction work moved slowly, leaving areas unprotected.

“If the defensive lines had been built in advance, the Ukrainians wouldn’t have retreated in such a way,” Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov said. “We should have been digging trenches through the fall and it would have stemmed Russian advances. Now everything is exposed, making it very dangerous.”

In a recent podcast, Kofman also said that Kyiv is “quite behind on effectively entrenching across the front” and “Ukraine does not have good secondary lines.”

After capturing the Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka, Russian troops are zeroing in on the hill town of Chasiv Yar, which would allow them to move toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, key cities in the Kyiv-controlled part of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Russia illegally annexed Donetsk and three other regions in 2022, and the Kremlin sees fully controlling that region as a priority.

Zhdanov said Ukraine doesn’t have the firepower to repel Russian attacks.

“They promised to have a defensive line 10 kilometers (6 miles) behind Avdiivka where our troops could get and dig in, but there is none,” he said.

Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command, sounded the alarm before Congress last week, warning that Ukraine will be outgunned 10 to one by Russia in a matter of weeks if Congress does not approve more military aid.

IN RUSSIA’S SIGHTS

After securing another term in a preordained election in March, President Vladimir Putin vowed to carve out a “sanitary zone” to protect Russia’s border regions from Ukrainian shelling and incursions.

Putin didn’t give any specifics, but Russian military bloggers and security analysts said that along with a slow push across the Donetsk region, Moscow could also try to capture Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv, which Russia tried and failed to take in the opening days of the war.

In a possible sign of a looming attack on Kharkiv, a city of 1.1 million about 30 kilometers (some 20 miles) south of the border, Russia has ramped up strikes on power plants in the area, inflicting significant damage and causing blackouts.

Ukraine doesn’t have enough air defense to protect Kharkiv and other cities, and the constant Russian strikes are part of Moscow’s strategy to “suffocate” it by destroying its infrastructure and forcing its residents to leave, Zhdanov said.

Retired Lt. Gen. Andrei Gurulev, now on the defense committee of Russia’s lower chamber of parliament, acknowledged that capturing Kharkiv is a major challenge, and he predicted the military would try to surround it.

“It can be enveloped and blockaded,” he said, adding that taking Kharkiv would open the way for a push deep into Ukraine and require more Russian troops.

After Putin’s order for “partial mobilization” of 300,000 reservists last fall proved so unpopular that hundreds of thousands fled abroad to avoid being drafted, the Kremlin tried a different approach: It promised relatively high wages and other benefits to beef up its forces with volunteer soldiers. The move appears to have paid off as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the military recruited 540,000 volunteers in 2023.

“There are no plans for a new wave of mobilization,” Viktor Bondarev, deputy head of defense affairs committee in the upper house of parliament, said in remarks carried by state RIA Novosti news agency. “We are doing well with the combat capability that we have.”

Trump campaign and RNC pledge to unleash thousands to monitor vote counting in battleground states

CNN

Trump campaign and RNC pledge to unleash thousands to monitor vote counting in battleground states

Fredreka Schouten, CNN – April 19, 2024

The Trump campaign and Republican National Committee are pledging to deploy 100,000 volunteers and lawyers to monitor vote counting across battleground states this year – part of what officials describe as a stepped-up focus on “election integrity” by the national party.

Officials describe the program, detailed in a news release Friday and first reported by Politico, as the “most extensive and monumental election integrity program in the nation’s history,” and it underscores how much former President Donald Trump’s relentless focus on baseless election fraud claims from 2020 is shaping the party’s agenda.

As the party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Trump now controls the RNC and recently installed a new chairman, Michael Whatley, and his daughter-in-law Lara Trump as party co-chair.

“Having the right people to count the ballots is just as important as turning out voters on Election Day,” Trump said in a statement. “Republicans are now working together to protect the vote and ensure a big win on November 5th!”

The RNC and the Trump campaign said they plan to recruit and train poll watchers, poll workers and attorneys to monitor not only voting sites but ballot-tabulation centers, including those where mail ballots are processed to guard against what they call “Democrat attempts to circumvent rules.”

The party said it plans to establish election integrity hotlines in each battleground state, allowing poll watchers and voters to report issues to the GOP’s legal team.

It’s not unusual for political parties and candidates to work to recruit and deploy lawyers and partisan poll watchers to protect their interests as voters cast their ballots and election officials tally the results.

But some Republican officials – even those who don’t subscribe to the falsehood that rampant election fraud led to Trump’s loss in 2020 – have argued that the GOP was outgunned by Democrats on the legal front during that election – as communities around the country eased voting rules to allow people to cast ballots safely during the pandemic.

In a statement, Charlie Spies, a veteran Republican election lawyer who is now serving as the RNC’s general counsel, said, “The Democrat tricks from 2020 won’t work this time.”

“In 2024, we’re going to beat the Democrats at their own game and the RNC legal team will be working tirelessly to ensure that election officials follow the rules in administering elections,” he said.

Spies promised aggressive legal action if officials deviate from established election procedures or “try to change them at the last minute.”

The new election monitoring program comes as the RNC has engaged in dozens of election-related lawsuits around the country.

With one letter, Trump turned the Republican Party into an extortion racket

USA Today – Opinion

With one letter, Trump turned the Republican Party into an extortion racket

Rex Huppke – April 18, 2024

I’d like to congratulate Donald Trump on the speed with which he’s turned the Republican Party into something resembling an extortion racket.

Aside from sinking his fangs into the Republican National Committee like a hungry bat on a plump Berkshire hog, the man spending his days in a Manhattan courtroom under criminal indictment is now looking to bleed cash out of down-ballot GOP campaigns.

In an April 15 letter, Trump’s campaign notified all Republican candidates that if they use the former president’s name, image or likeness on any campaign advertisements, they need to deliver at least 5% of the money they raise back to the aforementioned criminal defendant.

Former US President Donald Trump attends the second day of his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments linked to extramarital affairs, at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on April 16, 2024.
Former US President Donald Trump attends the second day of his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments linked to extramarital affairs, at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on April 16, 2024.

You know, a little kickback for the boss man. Just enough to get Trump’s beak wet. Because, as has been made abundantly clear, the GOP is Trump and Trump is the GOP.

The Republican Party is now nothing but a Donald Trump piggy bank

He’s got his daughter-in-law Lara Trump in place at the top of the RNC pecking order, and she didn’t hold back detailing the committee’s singular focus: “Every single penny will go to the No. 1 and the only job of the RNC – that is electing Donald J. Trump as president of the United States and saving this country.”

What is Trump afraid of? On eve of hush money trial, big, bold Donald Trump shows he’s nothing but a giant chicken

Sorry, other Republican candidates! Maybe you can find a different Republican National Committee to help you out. Oh, and in the meantime, if you mention the Republican at the top of the ticket, you need to ship some of the green you raise back upstream to the guy already vacuuming donor money up like a Statue-of-Liberty-size Dirt Devil.

If this sounds unbecoming of a presidential candidate who claims to be wildly successful and incredibly wealthy, wait until you see the tacky sneakers and weird Bibles he’s selling.

Biden is out-fundraising Trump, so more Bibles must be sold!

Adding to the cash thirst, the former president’s campaign is trailing President Joe Biden badly in the fundraising department.

A Financial Times analysis released this week found: “Donald Trump has raised $75 (million) less for his presidential bid than Joe Biden and has 270,000 fewer unique donors now than at the same stage of his run for the White House four years ago.”

President Joe Biden speaks to members of the United Steel Workers Union at the United Steel Workers Headquarters on April 17, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Biden announced new actions to protect American steel and shipbuilding industries including hiking tariffs on Chinese steel.
President Joe Biden speaks to members of the United Steel Workers Union at the United Steel Workers Headquarters on April 17, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Biden announced new actions to protect American steel and shipbuilding industries including hiking tariffs on Chinese steel.

He’d have to sell a moon-high stack of Bibles to catch up, so the grift must grow. And grow it has with this new “pony up some cash” push on fellow candidates.

Trump campaign’s letter to other GOP candidates reads like a mob flick

As if actively trying to get Trump’s campaign cast in the next Martin Scorsese gangster film, the letter to down-ballot Republicans included this line: “Any split that is higher than 5% will be seen favorably by the RNC and President Trump’s campaign and is routinely reported to the highest levels of leadership within both organizations.”

Why do Republicans hate each other? Nobody hates the GOP as much as Republicans hate the GOP. Just ask Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Sure, 5% is nice. That’s fine. But, you know, maybe do 10%, maybe even 15%? That’s the kinda thing that gets you noticed, kid.

When you give your party to someone under criminal indictment, well …

The letter also included this note to any campaigns that use Trump’s name, image or likeness and don’t play ball: “Any vendor whose clients ignore the guidelines mentioned above will be held responsible for their clients’ actions. Repeated violations will result in the suspension of business relationships between the vendor and Trump National Committee JFC.”

Yeah, nice little campaign you got there. Shame if anything happened to it, you know?

This all sounds dodgy as the day is long, but regardless, here’s what all the little Republican candidates not named Donald Trump are going to do. They’re going to line up in their fancy Trump sneakers with their Trump Bibles tucked under their arms and drop an offering in the MAGA hat at the feet of the Donald.

Frankly, it’s what they deserve.

They gambled on this guy again.

And the house always wins.

Ukraine’s growing arms sector thwarted by cash shortages and attacks

Reuters

Ukraine’s growing arms sector thwarted by cash shortages and attacks

Max Hunder – April 19, 2024

Employee prepares to place a mortar into a box at a production facility of the 'Ukrainian Armor' company in Ukraine
Employee prepares to place a mortar into a box at a production facility of the ‘Ukrainian Armor’ company in Ukraine
Employee tests a Novator armoured personnel carrier at a testing facility of the 'Ukrainian Armor' company in Ukraine
Employee tests a Novator armoured personnel carrier at a testing facility of the ‘Ukrainian Armor’ company in Ukraine

KYIV (Reuters) -Hundreds of Ukrainian businesses making weapons and military equipment have sprung up since Russia’s full-scale invasion, but some are struggling to fund production and all are afraid of being targeted in intensifying Russian missile strikes.

Owners say they have pumped in their own cash to survive and moved locations at their own expense to stay ahead of Russian intelligence. They are now urging the government to cut what they describe as excessive red tape around its arms purchases.

Several also want to be allowed to export, arguing that the government is unable to buy all of their output.

According to Ukraine’s strategic industries minister Oleksandr Kamyshin, the potential annual output of the military-industrial complex now stands at $18-20 billion.

Ukraine’s cash-strapped government can only fund about a third of that, the minister told Reuters in an interview. That compares with $120 billion of military aid received from allies throughout the war, most of it in equipment rather than cash.

“We have the biggest fight in a generation … If you look, for example, at NATO-calibre artillery shells, the production capacity of the U.S. and EU put together is lower than our needs,” said Kamyshin.

Many of Ukraine’s large, state-owned defence enterprises fell on hard times after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now the war has triggered a resurgence in the private arms sector.

According to his ministry, the number of defence manufacturers has more than doubled since the invasion. Private enterprises now number about 400 to the 100 state-owned ones, although the latter still provide the most production capacity.

To resolve cash shortages, Ukraine is asking foreign partners to fund its defence production. On Tuesday, Denmark made the first such pledge of $28.5 million.

RED TAPE

Some manufacturers say they are struggling to raise funds, a problem compounded by a government procurement process that they complain is slow and cumbersome.

“The first threat that makers come up against when they start working is the bureaucracy of the military sphere and of purchases,” said Vladyslav Belbas, CEO of Ukrainska Bronetekhnika (Ukrainian Armor), one of the few Ukrainian manufacturers making armoured vehicles and artillery shells, among other products.

Belbas cited the fact that the defence ministry only places orders for the current year, hampering makers’ ability to plan for the long term.

Four manufacturers making various weapons highlighted a range of issues: waiting for months to find out if the state was interested in buying, being bounced between departments in the defence ministry and armed forces, and having no assurances of future sales to help them plan production.

The defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the complaints. It has previously said it is building “a new architecture” for defence procurement, and appointed a new chief for the agency responsible for weapons purchases earlier this year.

Private investment has primarily been driven by domestic entrepreneurs, who often say they are driven by patriotism rather than profit.

A source in Ukraine’s government, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues, said private investment was not evenly spread.

“Everyone wants to invest in sexy stories like drones, but nobody wants to go into something difficult like (artillery) shells.”

One way to raise money is to grant licences for companies to export products that would otherwise go unbought by Ukraine due to the lack of financing.

Three manufacturers told Reuters they would like to see export licences being granted, provided the manufacturer had unused capacity not covered by orders from Ukraine.

Kamyshin said that was not feasible: “It’s fair for manufacturers to demand to either contract their capacity to the full or give them the possibility to export … but this position does not have political support, so we are looking for financing for our enterprises so that all production remains in Ukraine,” he said.

DANGEROUS BUSINESS

Aside from financial difficulties, making weapons in Ukraine during a full-scale war is fraught with risk.

When Reuters visited a factory of Ukrainian Armor, the head of the plant, who gave his name as Ruslan, agreed to speak only if his face was not shown to protect him from becoming a target of Russia’s intelligence services.

The factory, which employs around 100 people and makes armoured vehicles and mortars, was in the process of being wound down and moved to another location.

Ruslan said this was because a bigger premises was needed to accommodate more staff, as well as to make it harder for the Russians to find the factory. Some arms manufacturers move locations as often as every three months for security.

“From the (manufacturers) I speak to, not one private company received (state) compensation for relocation,” said Ukrainian Armor’s Belbas.

Another problem faced by manufacturers is the threat of power cuts, as Russia pounds energy infrastructure while Ukraine is running out of air defence munitions to protect its skies.

“In 2022-2023, we did not have electricity for two-thirds of our working hours – of course, under such conditions it is very difficult to manufacture anything,” Belbas said.

The government source said that manufacturers currently had no issues with power supply, and that if mass power cuts did have to be implemented then they “will be switched off last”.

(Reporting by Max Hunder; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Philippa Fletcher)