Some of the ways extreme heat will change life as we know it

Good Morning America

Some of the ways extreme heat will change life as we know it

Julia Jacobo – August 10, 2023

Some of the ways extreme heat will change life as we know it

Life as we know it could soon change if extreme, dangerous heat continues to inundate regions for longer stretches of time and at higher temperatures, according to experts.

A large part of the U.S., including much of the southern portion stretching from the West Coast, across Texas and to the Southeast, has been experiencing triple-digit temperatures and heat indexes for weeks on end.

Record-breaking temperatures have been the norm in several cities in recent weeks, including Phoenix, which has now seen more than 40 consecutive days at about 110 degrees.

Hotter-than-ever temperatures, and longer periods of time when they occur, will become the norm unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically curbed, mitigating further global warming, according to climate scientists. Americans could see an average of 53 more days of extreme heat by 2050, if emissions aren’t reduced, according to climate modeling data released by the ICF Climate Center in June.

The increased heat is guaranteed to alter how society operates, experts told ABC News.

MORE: Scientists concerned ‘rare’ glacial flooding event in Alaska could happen again

How kids spend their summers

Summer is synonymous with time spent outdoors for school-aged children all over the world.

But parents may be cautious about letting their kids spend prolonged periods of time outdoors when temperatures are nearing triple digits, especially if air quality is poor or UV indexes high, experts told ABC News.

SLIDESHOW: Extreme Weather Photos 2023

“The great outdoors go from being a magical place of exploration to a threatening place, full of fear,” Lise Van Susteren, a general and forensic psychiatrist who has researched how climate change has affected the psychological health of young people, told ABC News.

PHOTO: A World Youth Day volunteer uses a small fan to cool off from the intense heat, just outside Lisbon, Portugal, Aug. 6, 2023. (Armando Franca/AP)
PHOTO: A World Youth Day volunteer uses a small fan to cool off from the intense heat, just outside Lisbon, Portugal, Aug. 6, 2023. (Armando Franca/AP)

Less time outdoors could also be detrimental for children’s development. Research shows outdoor time is linked with improved motor development and lower obesity rates and nearsightedness in children. Outdoor play also promotes curiosity, creativity and critical thinking and is linked with behavior displaying less anger and aggression, studies have shown.

Few things could be more injurious to a child’s development than to be cooped up inside year-round, Van Susteren said, adding that humans have evolved to find the sounds and sights of nature meaningful and necessary for a healthy outlook.

“Yeah, you could always build something artificial. But don’t expect it to do for us mentally, which includes our ability to empathize and be generous, and to feel a sense of adventure,” she said.

Evidence that being holed up indoors is detrimental to kids’ mental health surmounted during the COVID-19 pandemic, which added more to the preexisting psychological distress among young people, according to the U.S. Surgeon General.

MORE: How rising temperatures are altering Napa’s wine-growing season

Athletes may alter their training

Athletes of all ages and levels will likely need to alter their training to stay safe during extreme heat, but those training for intense competitions that take place in a scorching climate need to be especially careful, said Brian Maiorano, coach liason for Core, a wearable tech that allows athletes to measure their core body temperature on the go.

Those training for competitions and races will need to adapt to the higher temperatures in order to participate safely, said Maiorano, who has coached athletes for running competitions and triathlons for 15 years.

“The human body is extremely adaptable, if given the right training,” he said.

Rather than training indoors in a climate-controlled setting, athletes will need to train outside and get their core body temperature to a level that will cause physiological adaptions, Maiorano said. Otherwise, athletes will suffer on race day.

Temperatures in the 90s are considered extreme for endurance athletes, while temperatures in the 80s would be considered extreme for those training for an event with even more difficulty and physical exertion, like the Ironman Triathlon, Maiorano said. About 80% of the heat in the body is generated by the power in the muscles, he said.

“It’s like literally having a space heater inside of you,” he said.

PHOTO: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews gets relief from the heat next to a water mister during the team's NFL football training camp, July 29, 2023, in Baltimore. (Nick Wass/AP)
PHOTO: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews gets relief from the heat next to a water mister during the team’s NFL football training camp, July 29, 2023, in Baltimore. (Nick Wass/AP)

Up until a few years ago, heat training was an “imprecise practice,” Maiorano said.

People training for events in warm climates — like the Hawaii Ironman and the Western States Endurance Run, which is a 100-mile race through the desert in California — were likely told by their coaches to go out during the hottest part of the day while wearing multiple layers of clothes.

“Cook yourself, but don’t overcook yourself, which is some really vague guidance,” Maiorano said. “It’s guidance you can give to a top athlete and hope that they don’t cause themselves heatstroke, but it’s not something that you can tell an age group athlete to do.”

MORE: Deaths due to extreme heat at national parks increasing, data from the National Parks Service shows

Peak travel seasons and destinations will change

Extreme heat will affect travel decisions people make in the summer, the peak travel season while kids are out of school, Erika Richter, spokesperson for the American Society of Travel Advisers, told ABC News.

“The climate crisis will impact where we go, when we go, and, in some cases, if we go,” Richter said.

The travel industry is already seeing shifts for travel to Greece, France and Spain, Richter said. While the peak tourist season is typically around July, Europe has been reaching record temperatures in recent years during that time. Combined with wildfires, the climate is causing people to travel to those destinations in the spring or early summer instead, Richter said.

People are also starting to choose cooler places for the summer travel season, such as Northern Europe, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest, Richter said.

PHOTO: Tourists refresh with water near the Parthenon temple at the Acropolis hill during a heat wave on July 20, 2023 in Athens, Greece. (Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)
PHOTO: Tourists refresh with water near the Parthenon temple at the Acropolis hill during a heat wave on July 20, 2023 in Athens, Greece. (Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)

Extreme heat is also heavily affecting air travel.

It is difficult for planes to take off in hot temperatures because as the air warms, it expands, so the number of molecules available to push the plane up is reduced. In June, Richter experienced a six-hour delay on a flight from Washington, D.C., to Portland because the plane could not take off with the number of passengers, she said.

While some passengers took the $1,000 credit offered to give up their seat, the originally nonstop flight had to stop in Missouri to refuel, because the plane could not handle the fuel load needed for the transcontinental flight, Richter said.

Extreme heat can also increase the amount of turbulence passengers experience. A 2017 study found that climate change may cause nearly three times as much clear-air turbulence as current conditions by the period between 2050 and 2080. Clear-air turbulence, which occurs without a visual warning like clouds or thunderstorms and is usually at high altitudes, is currently on the rise worldwide and at varying altitudes, the study found.

There have been several reports of heavy turbulence this summer, including a Hawaiian airlines flight in July that injured several flight attendants and passengers.

The wildfires in Canada, which have been so severe this season in part due to higher temperatures and drought, have impacted travel in the U.S., Richter said.

With more heat and humidity comes the possibility of thunderstorms grounding flights, as well, Richter said.

“We’re used to the thunderstorms for summer travel season,” she said. “But they are becoming much more violent, and they are grounding many more flights.”

MORE: Heat waves currently happening in North America, Europe ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change: Report

Reliance on air conditioning will increase

As climate change continues to worsen, regions that traditionally did not need air conditioning may need to brace for more heat waves by installing equipment to keep their homes cool.

In places like the Pacific Northwest and the San Francisco Bay Area, the majority of households are not equipped with central air conditioning. In 2021, when a historic heat wave struck the region, window and portable air conditioners were flying off the shelves, Jennifer Amann, senior fellow of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy’s building program, told ABC News.

Incorporating efficient cooling methods, like using the same pumps that heat homes to cool them, as well, and using efficient window air-conditioning units, will help households keep temperatures bearable in their homes, Amann said,

PHOTO: Ben Gallegos sits on the porch of his family's home with his dog as the daytime high temperature soars toward triple digits, July 27, 2023, in north Denver. (David Zalubowski/AP)
PHOTO: Ben Gallegos sits on the porch of his family’s home with his dog as the daytime high temperature soars toward triple digits, July 27, 2023, in north Denver. (David Zalubowski/AP)

Heat is the No.1 weather-related killer, with more than 600 people dying from heat-related illnesses every year in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. When temperatures do not cool down overnight, it exacerbates the risk to human health.

Buying an air conditioner is the short-term solution, but people will also need to adapt their homes to better deal with extreme heat, and builders will need to design new homes with more passive mechanisms to navigate the changing climate, Amann said.

MORE: Dangerous temperatures have been recorded in the US for weeks. Is the extreme heat coming to an end soon?

The economy could suffer

Extreme heat is taking a toll on economies in countries all over the world.

Countries in Europe like France, Italy, Spain, Romania and Germany have been the most affected by climate-related disasters over the past 20 years, an analysis by the Centre for Economic Policy Research found.

Domestically, Texas loses an average of $30 billion a year due to its climate and the large number of people working outdoors, according to a 2021 report by the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.

PHOTO: A tour guide fans herself while working in Times Square as temperatures rise, July 27, 2023, in New York City. (John Minchillo/AP)
PHOTO: A tour guide fans herself while working in Times Square as temperatures rise, July 27, 2023, in New York City. (John Minchillo/AP)

The cumulative global economic loss between 1992 and 2013 reached between $5 trillion and $29.3 trillion due to the impact of human-caused heat waves, according to a study published in 2022 in Science Advances.

The poorest countries in the hottest climates suffered the most, researchers found.

Heat also affects people’s moods, which is essentially survival mode kicking in, Van Susteren said.

“If we’re in a bad mood, we’re not buying,” she said.

Satellite images capture devastation in Lahaina from wildfires

NBC News

Satellite images capture devastation in Lahaina from wildfires

Tim Stelloh and Phil Helsel and Emma Li – August 10, 2023

Satellite images captured the devastation on Maui Wednesday after a wildfire tore through Lahaina, a popular vacation destination on the island’s west coast that was once the capital of the Kingdom of Hawaii.

In one image from the company Maxar Technologies, the historic area of Banyan Court — home to the island’s oldest living banyan tree, at 150 years old — appears to have mostly been reduced to ash.

Other images showed similar devastation in and around Lahaina Square, a shopping area, and a neighborhood on the southern end of the town of roughly 12,700.

Before and after satellite views of southern Lahaina, Maui, from left, June 25, 2023 to Aug. 9, 2023. (Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies)
Before and after satellite views of southern Lahaina, Maui, from left, June 25, 2023 to Aug. 9, 2023. (Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies)

Wildfires that scorched the island have left at least 36 people dead, officials said Thursday.

“Widespread damage to the West Maui town, the harbor and surrounding areas are being documented,” the county said in a statement.

Follow live coverage of the Maui wildfires

One resident of Lahaina, Tiare Lawrence, told NBC affiliate KHNL of Honolulu that everyone she knows in the community has lost their homes.

“I still don’t know where my little brother is,” she said. “I don’t know where my stepdad is.”

The fires, which have also hit the island of Hawaii, have been fueled by strong, erratic winds from a Category 4 hurricane.

“This is not going to be a short journey,” said Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke, who is acting governor until the governor returns early from a trip. “It’s going to take weeks and maybe months to assess the full damage.”

Americans are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at an alarming rate

CNN

Americans are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at an alarming rate

 Alicia Wallace, CNN – August 8, 2023

More Americans are tapping their 401(k) accounts because of financial distress, according to Bank of America data released Tuesday.

The number of people who made a hardship withdrawal during the second quarter surged from the first three months of the year to 15,950, an increase of 36% from the second quarter of 2022, according to Bank of America’s analysis of clients’ employee benefits programs, which are comprised of more than 4 million plan participants.

It’s a “pretty troubling” development if more people are resorting to making hardship withdrawals, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, told CNN.

“You understand why people do that in the heat of the moment, but the opportunity costs on that are really, really high over time,” he said.

Bank of America’s latest Participant Pulse report also found that a greater percentage of participants borrowed from their workplace plans from the first quarter, and average contributions trailed off as well.

However, overall employee contributions continued to hold steady for the first half of the year, and a greater share of participants upped their contribution rate than decreased it.

“The data from our report tells two stories — one of balance growth, optimism from younger employees and maintaining contributions, contrasted with a trend of increased plan withdrawals,” Lorna Sabbia, head of retirement and personal wealth solutions at Bank of America, said in a statement. “This year, more employees are understandably prioritizing short-term expenses over long-term saving.”

While the labor market remains strong, the economy is growing and consumers are spending, the global pandemic followed by two years of persistently high inflation have taken their toll on household finances.

Since 2019, household debt balances have increased by nearly $3 trillion, according to New York Federal Reserve data through the first quarter of 2023.

Separately on Tuesday, the New York Fed reported that US households’ credit card debt surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever. The $45 billion increase in credit card debt helped to drive overall household debt levels to $17.06 trillion at the end of the second quarter.

“There’s only so much hard debt that people can handle before delinquencies really spike,” Schulz said. “Ultimately, you just have a lot of people who are doing OK now, but it wouldn’t take a whole lot for them to find themselves in a pretty sticky situation financially, whether that is a medical emergency, job loss, or even just student loan payments restarting.”

Federal student loan payments are set to resume in October following a more than three-year pause due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Biden Administration’s push to forgive debt.

Are humans a cancer on the planet? A physician argues that civilization is truly carcinogenic

Salon

Are humans a cancer on the planet? A physician argues that civilization is truly carcinogenic

Troy Farah – August 5, 2023

Aerial View City in the US; Cancer Cell Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images
Aerial View City in the US; Cancer Cell Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images

Humans have existed on this planet for a relatively short time, yet we’ve had a major impact on it, dramatically altering its biodiversity and shifting its global climate in only a few centuries. The burning of fossil fuels has cooked the globe so much that ecosystems are threatening to fall completely out of balance, which could accelerate the ongoing mass extinctions caused by our predilection for exploiting nature.

There’s a very distinct possibility we could trigger our own extinction or, at the very least, greatly reduce our population while completely altering the way we currently live. Little things like going outside during daylight hours or growing food in the dirt could become relics of the past, along with birds, insects, whales and many other species. War, famine, pestilence and death — that dreaded equine quartet — threaten to topple our dominance on this planet. We are destroying our own home, sawing off the very branch we rest on.

Those who refute this reality, or climate change deniers, misinterpret the same sets of data showing a clear anthropological cause as being part of the “natural” cycle of the planet. Things are warming, they argue, and that is normal. Only, it really isn’t normal.

Climatologists and scientists have been sounding the alarm for decades: Global temperatures and planetary homeostasis are spiraling out of control, and we’re to blame. The climate crisis is no longer a hypothetical future. It’s the tangible present, and the evidence is clear in every grueling heatwavenot-so-uncommon “freak” storm and raging wildfire.

On the opposite extreme is a vocal minority, the accelerationists and nihilists who accept that humanity is overwhelmingly destructive to nature, but argue our extinction would be a welcome relief. I received many such comments on social media after interviewing Peter Ward, a paleontologist and professor at the University of Washington, about his “Medea hypothesis,” a theory that life is not a benevolent force and often causes its own extermination. Many species in Earth’s history became so successful that they wiped themselves out — and we could do the same.

In response to that article, many readers said something such as, “Humans are a virus and should be eradicated.” Obviously, inducing human extinction is an outcome for which only a very cynical personality would advocate. But what about the first part of that statement? Are humans really like a virus, a pathogen, a cancer?

Dr. Warren Hern, a Colorado-based physician and author of the new book “Homo Ecophagus: A Deep Diagnosis to Save the Earth,” argues that human civilization indeed has many similarities with cancer. This isn’t a metaphor, but rather a literal diagnosis — and it can be addressed in the same way that an actual cancer diagnosis can be the first step to treatment.

Salon recently spoke with Hern about his new book, which acts partially as a memoir, textbook, dire diagnosis and poetic ode to a disintegrating planet, discussing the implications for such an urgent prognosis, a new name for the human species that reflects our true nature and how we can still fix this crisis.

This interview has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.

My opinion is that humans are part of nature — we are not separate from it. After I came across your book, I began asking myself, “Are humans really a cancer on the planet?” I thought, “Aren’t we part of this whole ecosystem?” I initially set out to disprove what you’re saying, but the argument you make is so extremely convincing. I know from your writing that when you were first conceptualizing the notion that humans are a cancer on the planet, it was very unpopular. But now it seems like this idea has earned some mainstream acceptance. Is that true?

This is a fundamental scientific and philosophical question. And, first of all, I agree with you that we are part of nature. We evolved in a natural ecosystem, and we have obviously very intimate close ties with other species, other animals. Humans are unique in that they have culture, although we’re learning that other animals have certain levels of culture also, like whales. So, we are really not unique in that sense, but we have a different and higher level of culture that allows us to dominate other species and ecosystems.

These are cultural adaptations that allow us to survive, but they have become malignant maladaptations because they are now threatening our survival and millions of other species. We have essentially made a decision at this point as a species to go extinct. That’s what we’re doing — we’re eliminating our biosphere and our planetary support system. Consciously or not, and I think mostly unconsciously.

When I first came onto this in the late ’60s, I was horrified. It’s not an analogy; nobody ever died from an analogy. It’s a diagnosis, and that’s different. The diagnosis is the same as the hypothesis. The guy comes into the emergency room with a sore belly, and he has right lower quadrant pain. Your diagnosis is appendicitis until proven otherwise. But that’s a hypothesis because he might have some other disease, or if it’s a woman, they might have an ovarian cyst.

I work with the idea from Karl Popper that science is not advanced by proving anything, but by disproving false hypotheses. The purpose of a hypothesis is to explain reality and predict events. This hypothesis [humans as a cancer] explains what we see going on in reality around us —  and has for a long time —  and it predicts what is going to happen. And that means the prognosis, in medical terms, for cancer is death. The cancer continues until the host organism dies.

The difference between us and a cancer — the only difference — is we can think, and we can decide not to be a cancer. If the diagnosis is correct, things will continue until we are extinct. The biosphere can’t go extinct; it can’t die, but we can alter it to the point that we can no longer survive. And that will take out millions of other organisms. Clearly, plenty of organisms are going to survive that process. They might even be more intelligent than us. I don’t know.

That’s sort of the general picture. And whether people accept this or want to even listen to it is another thing. For example, in the book, I talk about the guy who took over the anthropology section at AAAS [American Association for the Advancement of Science] back in the early ’90s. He didn’t like this idea, and he wanted them to drop it from the schedule because his wife had cancer and he was very offended by it. I told him, “Well, I’m really sorry that your wife has cancer, and I certainly hope she recovers. This doesn’t have anything to do with your wife’s cancer.”

I hope people can see that because it’s such a good diagnosis. I mean, it really does fit the bill. You look at maps of cities and tumors, and you can see how they kind of grow similarly. But the similarities don’t end there.

The basic premise is that humans have the capacity of developing culture, and that has millions of manifestations, everything from language and speech and mathematics to constructing shelters, building weapons and having medical care to keep us alive. These adaptations have allowed us to go from a few separate species of skinny primates wandering around in Africa a couple of million years ago to being the dominant ecological force on the planet to the point we’re changing the entire global ecosystem.

These cultural adaptations have now become maladaptive. They do not have survival value. And they are, in fact, malignant maladaptations because they’re increasing in a way that cancer increases. So, this means that the human species now has all of the major characteristics of a malignant process. When I was in medical school, we had four of them that were identified: rapid, uncontrolled growth; invasion and destruction of adjacent normal tissues — in this case, ecosystems; metastasis, which means distant colonization; and dedifferentiation, which you see very well in the patterns of cities.

That’s only one example. We now have 10 or 15 other new characteristics of cancer, and the human species fits all of them. And so the disturbing thing about this? If you have any two of the first four characteristics of cancer, it’s cancer until proven otherwise. And cancer does not stop until the host organism has ceased to function, which for our purposes is the biosphere.

Now, I have given the book the name “Homo Ecophagus.” That is my new name for the human species, which currently has the scientific name of Homo sapiens sapiens, or wise, wise man, which makes us the most misnamed species on the planet. Homo ecophagus means the man who devours the ecosystem — and that’s what we are doing.

We are in the process of converting all plant, animal, organic and inorganic material on the planet into human biomass and its adaptive adjuncts or support systems. The evidence for that is all around us.

So, that’s the basic idea in a nutshell, and then the rest of the book is simply manifestations of this malignancy and an explanation of the analysis. And so, the next question is: Can we do anything about this? Should we do something about this? It’s very hard under the circumstances, for example, to think about Vladimir Putin sitting down with Zelensky if they can fix the ecosystem in Ukraine.

Right, it’s a very, very difficult problem. It’s the biggest problem our society faces right now. Literally, nothing else matters if we don’t address this problem.

That’s the point: It’s an existential crisis. Yes.

I have to say that it seems like we’re not going to solve this problem. I don’t want to be negative and despair that we’re all simply going to die from climate change. I recently made a move across the country from California to Illinois. Everywhere you go, you get that dedifferentiation that you speak of, where everything looks the same. Every freeway has the same strip malls. You see all these people in these giant pickup and semi trucks and all this overconsumption. I just don’t see people giving it up. I just don’t see it happening. Not fast enough, at least.

This is what I call the “ecophasic imperative.” Robert Ardrey, a brilliant anthropologist, about 40 or 50 years ago wrote a number of outstanding books. One is called “The Territorial Imperative,” which is about how humans have an imperative need to have and expand their territories.

One of the most lurid manifestations of what we have right now is Donald Trump. Another one is Putin and the war on Ukraine, but humans have been doing this forever. And now our malignant melanoma patients have been put in a position where we are devouring the Earth. We are devouring the ecosystem. We have an imperative to do that. Look at the open pit mines that we have of various kinds. The whole alternative energy programs depend on destroying certain ecosystems to get the rare metals that we need to do that stuff.

I do not want to be negative, either. I’m basically an optimistic and positive person. I’ve been my whole life. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gives us a list of horribles, and it gets more horrible every year. But what’s the underlying dynamic? I say this is a malignant process going on for hundreds of thousands of years.

This is not new. When the Australian Aborigines arrived on the continent of Australia, they started changing the ecosystem in very dramatic ways, and a lot of species went extinct. My colleague here at the University of Colorado, Giff Miller, has been one of the people showing that it happened in North America. It happened in the Pacific Islands. It happens every place. Humans have made other species extinct wherever they show up.

Of course, it takes individual actions. The obvious side to that is people can make changes in their lives. I’m in Boulder, Colo, for example, where they have a lot of recycling going on, and people are very conscious of that. But, at the same time, you have China putting in a coal-fired power generation plant every week. So, it’s very hard to see how all these individual actions can really have that effect that we want.

Do you have hope for the future, or maybe feel despair about everything? I often get a little bit paralyzed and feel like there’s no point to anything, like we’re all just going to go off the cliff. I’m hoping something will change, that something will shift on a major level, that we’ll all kind of come together on this issue. But I feel like I’ve been waiting for that moment for years.

It’s hard to know how to answer your question when you ask me, “Is there hope?” One of my main answers — which is true — is that young people like you give me hope, people who are looking at this stuff and thinking about it and figuring out what to do. When I look at the current political scene in the United States, it’s very hard to be optimistic because we have a violent fascist movement that occupies the attention of at least a third, if not more, of the population, supporting a man who is a sociopathic criminal.

I think that we make the decisions about these situations — the environment and our survival — through our political process. I want to be optimistic. Let me just share a little example of something with you. A week ago, I went to New Mexico to attend a special memorial service for Dave Foreman.

Dave Foreman started the organization Earth First! with a couple other people. He was what we call a radical environmentalist, and he was associated with Edward Abbey, who wrote “The Monkey Wrench Gang.” And part of their idea was you throw a monkey wrench into this process to stop it. OK, very romantic idea. Very exciting, but how much did they accomplish with that?

The meeting was held in a campground outside of Los Alamos, and we were a scruffy-looking bunch of backpackers and tree huggers. I felt right at home with these wonderful people, who were some of the hardcore environmentalists of this country, and people who really, really were dedicated, spent their lives working on protecting the environment. We’ve been talking about people with advanced degrees, with PhDs in ecology and biology, wolf conservation, I don’t know what else.

They were an impressive bunch of people. I enjoyed meeting them, and I participated in this meeting. I admire Dave, who was a friend of mine. And I have his books, and they’re worth reading. OK, this is a highly energetic, wonderful, dedicated, altruistic group in this country. What’s been happening since they started Earth First!? Things are a lot worse than they were.

And it’s very hard to see how that has really influenced the broad scale of things, even though they’ve had a lot of very specific local victories. More people need to understand that we are in an impending extinction crisis for ourselves and for the rest of the ecosystem and other species. We are destroying the planet as we speak — as rapidly as possible — and that must stop. We must find ways to do things differently, and that’s going to make big changes in our lives.

Read more about climate change:

The world inches closer to feared global warming ‘tipping points’: 5 disastrous scenarios

USA Today

The world inches closer to feared global warming ‘tipping points’: 5 disastrous scenarios

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY – August 5, 2023

Climate change effects usually become clear over decades and centuries, but they seem to be everywhere this summer: temperature records broken constantlyocean waters as warm as hot tubs and world leaders so alarmed they’ve called this the “the era of global boiling.”

And as concerning as these developments are, scientists have long worried about even more dramatic, looming and irreversible changes to the planet that could happen quickly. Even in the past year, there’s evidence some of these scenarios are becoming more likely.

A paper in the journal Science in 2022 looked at several climate “tipping points” – conditions beyond which changes become self-perpetuating and difficult or impossible to undo. While the concept raised the hackles of some scientists, who suggested it was overly simplistic, the paper suggested even the possibility of such no-going-back points provided compelling reasons to limit warming as much as possible.

About a year later, several global systems that scientists have been concerned about are showing signs of becoming increasingly fragile.

Antarctic sea ice is at a record lowfires in Canada are reshaping terrain and polluting the air and record ocean temperatures are threatening coral. There’s even new research published in July that suggests critical Atlantic Ocean currents could collapse sooner than expected, which could trigger rapid weather and climate changes.

But the news isn’t all bad: There’s some good news in the Amazon. And scientists continue to say that if humanity takes climate threats seriously and quickly moves to end carbon emissions, the scenarios below become less likely or at least less extreme.

Here are five tipping points scientists say could start to teeter sooner rather than later:

A July 2022 photo of melting summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean near Greenland.
A July 2022 photo of melting summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean near Greenland.
Melting ice sheets could overwhelm the oceans

As of July 18, Antarctic sea ice was more than 1 million square miles below the 1981-2010 average. That’s an area larger than the seven southwestern states, including Utah and Texas, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. It is also more than half a million square miles lower than last year, which had also been the previous record low.

In Greenland, temperatures over the country’s central-north ice sheet between 2001 and 2011 were the warmest in the past 1,000 years, said Maria Hörhold, a glaciologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany and author of a study published this year.

Critical Atlantic ocean currents could stall, reshape climate in US and Europe
  • What could happen: Massive ocean currents that move hot and cold water around could grind to a halt. Some studies have called it an “irreversible transition.”
  • When could it happen: New research suggests it could occur this century.
  • What would the effect on Earth be: Scientists aren’t sure, but some say a stoppage could trigger rapid weather and climate changes in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. It could bring about an ice age in Europe and sea-level rise in cities such as Boston and New York, as well as more potent storms and hurricanes along the East Coast.
  • What changed since last year? Recent analysis shows the current appears to be weakening or slowing down.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large system of ocean currents that carry warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic, could collapse by the middle of the century, or possibly any time from 2025 onward, because of human-caused climate change, a study published last week suggests.

It’s far from certain and many scientists say there’s not enough data yet to tell if there’s a trend that could mean a sudden collapse is in the offing.

FILE - Smoke rises from a fire near a logging area in the Transamazonica highway region, in the municipality of Humaita, Amazonas state, Brazil, Sept. 17, 2022. Brazil has a major role to play in addressing climate change as home to the world's largest rainforest, but after the Sunday, Oct. 2, election, the subject is less likely to come up than ever. (AP Photo/Edmar Barros, File) ORG XMIT: CLI301
FILE – Smoke rises from a fire near a logging area in the Transamazonica highway region, in the municipality of Humaita, Amazonas state, Brazil, Sept. 17, 2022. Brazil has a major role to play in addressing climate change as home to the world’s largest rainforest, but after the Sunday, Oct. 2, election, the subject is less likely to come up than ever. (AP Photo/Edmar Barros, File) ORG XMIT: CLI301More
The Amazon rainforest could wither
  • What could happen: The Amazon rainforest could shift from lush rainforest to arid savannah. Far fewer species would live there and much less carbon would be sequestered.
  • When could it happen? One estimate suggested it could happen as soon as 2039.
  • What could the effect on Earth be? The Amazon’s 2.5 million square mile rainforest, sometimes called “the lungs of the plant,” is so vast it creates half of its own rainfall and is home to 10% of the world’s species. It also stores a substantial amount of the world’s carbon.
  • What changed in the last year? There’s actually good news – deforestation in the Brazilian portion of the Amazon has dropped to a six-year low, possibly because the nation has a new president who has vowed to protect the rainforest. Illegal logging makes the rainforest much less resilient to climate changes.

As temperatures rise and droughts become more common, the ability of the forest to grow back after fires or logging is of concern. That’s especially a problem in the Amazon where the trees themselves capture water through their roots and then release moisture back through their leaves. It’s estimated a single tree can emit 265 gallons of water a day.

If drought or logging kills trees there may not be enough left to bring water to the area, meaning what grows back in their place would instead be grassland.

July 2, 2023 : Flames from the Donnie Creek wildfire burn along a ridge top north of Fort St. John, British Columbia.
July 2, 2023 : Flames from the Donnie Creek wildfire burn along a ridge top north of Fort St. John, British Columbia.
Wildfires could reshape Alaska and Canada, turning forests into grassland
  • What could happen: Massive wildfires could mean North America’s vast northern forests – sometimes called “snow forests” – could face a future as mostly treeless grasslands.
  • When it could happen: In some areas it could be as much as 50% by 2100.
  • What would the effect on Earth be: These cold-weather forests run across Alaska and Canada and are estimated to store more than 30% of all forest carbon on the planet. Without them, huge amounts of greenhouse gases would be released into the atmosphere, worsening global warming.
  • What’s changed in the last year? Fires in Canada this summer have burned more than 50 thousand square miles of forest. But so far the northern snow forests appear resilient, although which species grow where is beginning to change.

Forests have always burned but what’s happening now is on a different scale, in every part of the country, said Marc-André Parisien, a research scientist with the Canadian Forest Service.

This summer has been a historically bad fire season in Canada. As of August 4, a remarkable 1,054 active fires were burning, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre.

While boreal forests are highly adapted to wildfires, the climate in the forested areas is now hotter and windier than before, making it harder for the seedlings to reestablish themselves. The concern is that in some areas what grows back after these megafires might not be today’s endless forests but instead grassland and shrubland, interspersed with smaller areas of trees.

“The climate in the northern forests has always been changing since the end of the Ice Age,” Parisien said. “But just the sheer speed at which things are happening now is surprising.”

Underwater photo of coral bleaching and hard coral Acropora sp turns white due to high sea surface temperature and climate change
Underwater photo of coral bleaching and hard coral Acropora sp turns white due to high sea surface temperature and climate change
World’s coral reefs could be cooked by the ocean
  • What could happen: Rising ocean temperatures are literally cooking coral to death. If localized die-offs happened across the world’s oceans, it would fundamentally change and diminish undersea life.
  • When could it happen: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that 1.5°C of global warming would result in between 70 and 90% of the world’s coral reefs disappearing – which could happen in the early 2030s.
  • What would the effect on Earth be: Corals are vital to the health of the oceans. Although they cover only 0.2% of the ocean floor, they are home to at least a quarter of all marine species. They provide safety for juvenile fish and are home to small organisms and fish that provide food for larger fish. A report released last year showed that almost 15% of the planet’s reefs have vanished since 2009.
  • What’s changed since last year? Ocean temperatures have reached highs of as much as 101.1 degrees off the coast of Florida and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the ocean surface had its third consecutive month of record temperatures. Off the coast of Florida, scientists are racing to save coral specimens by bringing them out of ocean waters that have reached as much as 101 degrees in past weeks and into tanks where they can be saved until the waters cool.

Coral reefs can survive within only a relatively narrow temperature band. The coral that build the reefs get much of their food from algae living in their tissues. When the seawater is too warm, the coral’s stress response is to expel algae, causing the coral to turn white. The process is called coral bleaching, and if it lasts too long, the coral can starve – turning a thriving ecosystem into a cemetery of dead, white shells.

The Coral Restoration Foundation, a group centered around restoring and protecting Florida’s coral reefs, said it visited the Sombrero Reef off the Florida Keys on July 20 and found “100% coral mortality.” The discovery means all corals on the Sombrero Reef, a popular snorkeling area, have died and the reef will not recover on its own without active restoration, the foundation said.

Students from the Urban Homeschoolers in Atwater Village march through the neighborhood chanting and carrying signs on their way to the Los Angeles River and then an overpass on Interstate-5. Photo by Robert Hanashiro, USA TODAY staff
Students from the Urban Homeschoolers in Atwater Village march through the neighborhood chanting and carrying signs on their way to the Los Angeles River and then an overpass on Interstate-5. Photo by Robert Hanashiro, USA TODAY staff
Action, not despair

Even though it appears humanity is on track to miss the United Nations’ hoped-for limit of a temperature rise of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, giving up is not the answer, said Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

No specific number signifies that all hope is lost. Instead, it’s a call for action.

“It’s not like we fall off the edge of the world,” he said. “We can still make a big difference and every single tenth of a degree is enormously important.”

Contributing: Doyle Rice, Emily DeLetterDinah Voyles Pulver

Feeling Mortgage-Rate Envy? You’re Not Alone.

THe New York Times

Feeling Mortgage-Rate Envy? You’re Not Alone.

Ronda Kaysen – August 4, 2023

With interest rates climbing, a new form of one-upmanship is making the rounds: the mortgage-rate humble brag. (Getty Images)

At a rooftop party on a steamy July night in Philadelphia, the margarita machine was churning, the seafood boil was hearty, and the conversation turned to the default of the upwardly mobile: real estate.

Almost anyone shopping for a home in the 2020s knows the script by now: Someone mentions their recent home purchase, a tale undoubtedly rich with drama, stress and suspense. Guests, well schooled in the volatility of the housing market, lean in for the follow-up: When did you buy?

The response to that key question “is normally followed by an ‘Oooh,’” said Evan Barker, 36, a lawyer who attended the party and has participated in enough of these exchanges to know that the “Oooh” means one of two things: You either got the interest rate of a lifetime, or you squarely did not.

Fortunately for Barker, he falls into the former category. He and his wife, Laura Gallagher, 36, bought their first house in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania, in the early spring of 2020, weeks before home prices began their fastest ascent in U.S. history, as mortgage rates plummeted to historic lows. In January 2021, the 30-year mortgage rate bottomed out at 2.65%, a few months before Barker and Gallagher refinanced, besting the national average with a rate of 2.375%.

So it’s no wonder that Barker spent the evening enjoying the banter almost as much as the stunning City Center rooftop views. He knew his lines for this dialogue. He had spent months fine-tuning his delivery, usually waiting for someone else to toss out an enviable interest rate before he topped it.

“I throw the humblebrag in,” he said. “Hey! Best financial decision of my life was pure luck. It’s just that simple.”

While most of the guests spent the conversation one-upping each other, the person who stood out to Barker was the one who had bought recently, at a substantially higher interest rate than everyone else. “They shocked us with some of their payment info,” he said.

American homeowners now stand on two sides of a divide. On one side are those who had the good fortune to buy or refinance between 2020 and early 2022, and now enjoy notably low monthly interest payments on their principal. On the other side: everyone else.

These prospective and recent homebuyers are watching their purchasing power diminish as home prices hold steady amid rising rates. In mid July, the 30-year mortgage rate hovered just under 7%, after reaching a high of 7.08% in October. The last time rates exceeded 7% was in 2002 — more than 20 years ago.

The contrast creates ideal conditions for ribbing from the winners and resentment from the losers. Homeowners and buyers say the sparring has been happening among friends at parties, with colleagues at the office, and on social media, where it plays out as memes that are smug, shocked or hopeless, depending on where you fall on the spectrum.

“There is almost a cross-generational envy,” said Övül Sezer, an assistant professor of management and organizations at Cornell University, who studies humblebragging.

Flaunting wealth and good fortune is nothing new. But Americans, for the most part, avoid sharing specifics about money. Sure, you’ll plaster news about your promotion on Facebook and on the platform formerly known as Twitter, but you’ll probably keep mum about the salary package that comes with it. When it comes to real estate, the attitude is no different. A gleeful homeowner may gloat about vanquishing the competition in a bidding war, but they won’t mention the sale price, or their monthly payments.

In comes the interest rate, serving as the ideal proxy. Share your mortgage rate and you can showcase your financial prowess without revealing how much money you spent (or how much you have). It almost feels humble. Almost.

“When we brag, we signal our competence,” Sezer said — telling the world, in this case, that we’re savvy consumers. “Yet we also know that bragging is kind of bad, so humblebragging is this seemingly sweet spot. It allows us to both brag, but also look humble.”

Few people are fooled.

“It’s like a talking point. We get it, we know, yes, yes — everybody has 2.6%, you’re all so smart, thanks for informing me,” said Ike Wachuku, 34, a software engineer in Baltimore, who will not be getting a 2.6% interest rate if he and his wife ever manage to find a new house. “People are rubbing your face in it.”

Consumers have little control over what mortgage rate they get, aside from maintaining a solid credit rating. Mortgage rates have been rising in response to the Federal Reserve’s continued efforts to wrestle inflation under control. So timing, not skill, dictates the rate — and timing is a byproduct of luck.

As it happens, luck isn’t entirely random. The pandemic exacerbated inequalities that existed before 2020. For many wealthier Americans, the pandemic was a financial boon. They kept their jobs, were able to work remotely, enjoyed bonuses and raises, and had cash on hand when interest rates plummeted to keep the economy afloat. They were the ones best positioned to pluck up homes, driving up prices. The people who spent 2020 and 2021 struggling through job losses, illnesses or other financial hardships likely missed out on the moment, and are now the ones enduring the hard consequences of rampant inflation.

The interest rate cut “was this free handout to people who didn’t really need it,” said Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at Redfin. For everyone else, “that door closed as soon as people started to get back on their feet.”

Or as Sharon Reshef, who last month bought a $400,000 one-bedroom apartment in Washington D.C., put it: “It’s really hard to plan your life around macroeconomics.”

That hasn’t stopped some of her slightly older colleagues in Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s office from teasing her about her 6.625% interest rate.

“It’s just a gentle ribbing,” said Reshef, 30, the research director for the senator from New York, who now spends half of her take-home pay on her mortgage. “But as long as we’re here, I will say that not a lot of people in my cohort own property, especially as a single person. Regardless of the interest rate, I have that one up on them. I can definitely brag.”

In hindsight, Scott Decker, 35, wishes he had been ready to leave Brooklyn for the suburbs in 2021, when many of his friends were leaving. Instead, he and his wife, Maureen Decker, bought a home in Montclair, New Jersey, the following year. Now, when he drives his son to preschool, passing the stately homes on picturesque, tree-lined streets, he plays a tortured game.

“I’m like, ‘I wonder what this house sold for?’ And, ‘We could have gotten this house two years ago if we had wanted it,’” he said. “I’m definitely always thinking about that and always a little jealous.”

Decker, who leads strategic media planning for a tech company, “definitely overpaid” for the four-bedroom house that he and Decker bought for $1.1 million, 40% over the list price. They also took out an adjustable-rate mortgage, with a rate that is fixed at 4.15% until 2030, when it adjusts based on the current rates. “I’m terrified at what I may be forced to change to in the future,” he said.

The Deckers are friendly with another Montclair couple who own a bigger house, but because their interest rate is lower, their monthly payments are about the same. “Every time we go to their house, I’m like, ‘Man, this is unfair,’” Decker said.

Talk to anyone who managed to buy a home in 2020 or 2021, and they will probably tell you the competition was fierce and the experience miserable. But buyers today face similar, if not tougher, conditions. Inventory is anemic, partly because homeowners do not want to part with their low interest rates. So far, a scant 1% of American homes have traded hands this year, the lowest rate in a decade, according to a July report from Redfin.

Of course, things could be worse. In 1981, mortgage rates peaked at a jaw-dropping 18.53%. Still, the average home price in the second quarter of 1981 was $84,300 — even adjusted for inflation, that’s about $287,020, which is far less than the average price of $495,100 in the second quarter of 2023.

But people who remember the days of double-digit interest rates are often quick to remind younger generations that they, too, walked to school uphill both ways in the snow.

“The fate, the gods, determine when you enter that phase of your life and what is happening in the market,” said Allen J. Palmer, 85, who is retired from IBM and bought his house in what is now Silicon Valley, in California, in 1977 for $95,000 (or $480,686 in today’s dollars), with an 8.5% mortgage interest rate. The first year he and his wife spent in that house, they couldn’t afford to fly home to Milwaukee for the holidays.

Young buyers “don’t understand that this is the way it is,” he said. “They probably don’t remember that their parents struggled to pay” the mortgage, too.

On a recent TikTok video, Barbara Corcoran, the 74-year-old real estate mogul, arranged fresh flowers as she chided hesitant buyers for their reluctance to get back into the market — a common refrain among real estate agents, who insist that there is no time like the present to buy a house.

“Pick your poison: high interest rates now, which aren’t so high, or super-high prices once they come down,” Corcoran said, her hand grazing a fern frond. “Your choice.”

Decker, in Montclair, knows which choice he thinks buyers should make. Recently, he was standing at the bar of a local barbecue restaurant and overheard another patron who seemed overconfident about a recent lowball offer he had made on a house in town. Decker had lost enough bidding wars to know how this story would end, and considered schooling him on his grim prospects. Maybe he would lean across the bar, he thought, and say, “Don’t even bother, man, cool your heels somewhere else.” But he hesitated.

“It did make me feel a little good,” he said, “and certainly thankful that I have a place to live and I’m not dealing with that right now.”

Instead of offering unsolicited advice, he ordered a Pabst Blue Ribbon and a shot of Jameson, and walked back to the patio to sit down and enjoy the evening with his family in their new town.

DeSantis just another anti-government bomb thrower: DeSantis says he’d slash federal bureaucratic jobs on his first day as president: ‘We are going to start slitting throats’

Insider

DeSantis says he’d slash federal bureaucratic jobs on his first day as president: ‘We are going to start slitting throats’

Madison Hall  – August 3, 2023

Ron DeSantis
Republican Florida governor candidate Ron DeSantis speaks during a Make America Great Again Rally at the Florida State Fairgrounds in Tampa, Florida, U.S., July 31, 2018.Carlos Barria/Reuters
  • Ron DeSantis railed against the US for having too many federal bureaucrats at a recent campaign stop.
  • “We are going to start slitting throats on day one,” he said.
  • DeSantis has previously said he’d eliminate the IRS and other agencies if elected.

GOP Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis continued on his tirade against federal bureaucrats while speaking on the campaign trail Wednesday.

“We are going to start slitting throats on day one,” DeSantis said about federal bureaucrats, leading to some dissatisfaction among the crowd at the campaign stop in New Hampshire, according to New Hampshire Public Radio.

Wednesday wasn’t the first time DeSantis said he’d slash government agencies if elected to the White House. In June, he said he wanted to get rid of the Internal Revenue Service, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Education.

And in July, DeSantis reiterated his plans while speaking to Maria Bartiromo on Fox News.

“You also have to bring this administrative state to heel, the bureaucracy in Washington is totally out of control,” DeSantis said. “It is exerting power that is not therefore under the Constitution, and we need a President to come in and really, really clean house and I will do that on day one.

The president of the American Federation of Government Employees, a labor union that represents more than 650,000 federal workers, said in a statement that DeSantis’ comments were “disgusting, disgraceful, and disqualifying.”

“These public servants deserve respect and commendation from our nation’s leaders,” said Everett Kelley. “No federal employee should face death threats from anyone, least of all from someone seeking to lead the U.S. government. Governor DeSantis must retract his irresponsible statement.”

In a recent New York Times survey, DeSantis finished second among currently declared Republican presidential candidates, trailing behind former President Donald Trump by 37 percentage points. The same survey found that likely Republican voters much prefer a presidential candidate who thinks the “government should stay out of deciding what corporations can support” rather than one who promises “to fight corporations that promote ‘woke’ left ideology,” as DeSantis has pledged to do time and time again.

DeSantis does have time to claw back supporters in the GOP primary race: he qualified for and has said he’ll attend the first Republican presidential debate on August 23.. And in an effort to get more eyes on his campaign, DeSantis just accepted an offer to debate California Gov. Gavin Newsom (who’s not running for president).

The Kremlin has pumped so much money into the economy that it’s creating a boom — but this house of cards could topple anytime soon

Insider

The Kremlin has pumped so much money into the economy that it’s creating a boom — but this house of cards could topple anytime soon

Huileng Tan – August 1, 2023

The Kremlin has pumped so much money into the economy that it’s creating a boom — but this house of cards could topple anytime soon. The Russian economy has been doing far better than expected even amid sweeping sanctions, but most analysts do not expect this to last.(AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
  • Russia’s wartime economy is thriving, the New York Times reported Monday.
  • The Kremlin implemented measures to boost military equipment output, benefits, and mortgage subsidies.
  • These measures have boosted the demand — and prices — for a range of goods and services in Russia.

Nearly 18 months after the Ukraine war started, Russia’s economy appears to be humming along — baffling economists who predicted catastrophic outcomes following sweeping sanctions against Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

While some economists have questioned the quality and veracity of Russian data releases, a New York Times report on Monday offered a nuanced picture of the country’s wartime economy and how it’s helping drum up popular support for Vladimir Putin.

Russia’s economic strength so far is due to the Kremlin’s measures — the Times reported that Putin is boosting the production of military equipment and raising pensions, salaries, and other benefits for people who are not well-off. The state is also subsidizing mortgages.

Soldiers fighting the war are also earning far higher salaries than average earnings in poorer regions of Russia, the Times reported. For instance, Russia was offering a minimum of 160,000 rubles, or about $1,740, in monthly wages for contract soldiers last September — three times the national average, Reuters reported at the time.

Large payouts for those who died in the war — for example, a 5 million rubles payout for families of Wagner Group fighters who died in the war — are circulating in the economy.

These measures have boosted the demand — and prices — for a range of products and services in Russia, the Times reported.

Corporate loans have increased 19% in the year to June as investments grew, the Times said, citing the Russian central bank’s figures. Meanwhile, the value of mortgages taken out from Russia’s top 20 banks surged 63% in the first half of the year from a year ago, the Times reported, citing the state-run lender Dom.RF, and the real estate research firm Frank Media.

Russia’s economy is running so hot that its central bank raised interest rates by one percentage point on July 21 — double the 0.5 percentage point analysts polled by Reuters had expected — to tame inflation that hit 3.25% in June from a year ago.

But the boom may not last.

The house of cards could soon crumble

“As an economist, I don’t know how this bubble can be deflated,” Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a former advisor at the Russian central bank, told The Times.

“One day it could all crash like a house of cards,” he added.

Russia’s central bank has also been candid about its gloomy assessments of the economy — which at times were at odds with more bullish statements from the Kremlin. But the institution has come under pressure from Moscow to give a more “upbeat assessment” about the country’s economy, Bloomberg reported in February.

Economy experts, however, are not optimistic about Russia’s economic outlook even as they acknowledge the current robustness of its economy.

In April last year, the Russian central bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina said the country’s reserves wouldn’t last infinitely. In December, she also expressed concerns about inflation and the tight labor market due to Putin’s military draft. She repeated her concerns about price rises and the labor shortage in her July rate hike announcement.

Ariel Chernyy, an economist at Italian bank UniCredit, forecasts Russia’s GDP to grow by 1% this year — reversing a 2.1% contraction last year, according to a July 6 note seen by Insider.

Chernyy said the country’s economic resilience is due to government spending and the implementation of import-substitution projects that are boosting the domestic industry.

But it “does not mean a higher GDP growth rate that can be sustained in the long term” due to a shrinking labor pool and other issues like inferior import substitutes, he added.

DeSantis’s economic plan sounds like Biden’s

Yahoo! Finance

DeSantis’s economic plan sounds like Biden’s

Rick Newman, Senior Columnist – July 31, 2023

Who said it, Ron DeSantis or Joe Biden?

1. “We need a future that’s made in America. That means using products, parts, and materials built right here in the United States of America. It means bringing manufacturing back, jobs back, building the supply chains here at home, not outsourcing abroad.”

2. “We need to incentivize the repatriation of American capital and investment here in the United States so we can recapture our supply chains and build a strong durable industrial base.”

The first quote is President Biden, from a speech on his economic vision in January 2022. The second is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s running for the Republican nomination for president, outlining his own economic agenda on July 31, 2023. DeSantis isn’t plagiarizing Biden, exactly, but it sure sounds like he’s borrowing ideas he’s heard before.

DeSantis, badly lagging Donald Trump in Republican polling for the 2024 race, is trying to establish himself as a conservative populist akin to Trump, but with a better reputation for competence and governing. To further the cause, he outlined a “Declaration of Economic Independence” during a July 31 campaign stop in New Hampshire, his first major effort to present an economic vision.

It’s surprisingly similar to Biden’s. Both men favor protectionism and a heavier government role than usual to steer the US economy toward future prosperity. Both vilify China and say the United States needs to end its reliance on the huge trade partner for key products. And they both bash big corporations for building massive amounts of wealth at the expense of ordinary workers.

The biggest difference between the two agendas, in fact, may be that Biden is already pursuing efforts to achieve many of those goals, while DeSantis is only talking about them as a candidate. There are other differences between the two, some largely rhetorical, others more substantive. But the unusual similarities between a center-left president and a far-right challenger indicate how much traditional political views have shifted as foreign threats have changed during the last decade and the global economy has transformed.

Like most challengers facing an incumbent, DeSantis argues that the current leadership has sent the nation into “decline.” Corporate fat cats and Beltway opportunists are lining their pockets while everybody else falls behind. This is a reprise of Bernie Sanders in 2020, Donald Trump in 2016, and even Barack Obama in 2008.

One big change between then and now is an increasingly aggressive China that seems bent on confrontation with the United States and the democratic West, rather than the trade symbiosis of 10 or 15 years ago. “We have to stop selling out this country’s future to China,” DeSantis demanded in his July 31 speech.

Well, Biden beat him to it. And Trump beat him to it before Biden.

Trump started by decrying the US trade deficit with China and slapping tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports each year to fix it. The tariffs raised the cost of US imports to the United States but did almost nothing to alter the trade balance. Then COVID hit in 2020, exposing extreme American dependence on China for medical supplies, electronics, minerals, and other crucial products.

Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis gestures during a campaign event, Monday, July 31, 2023, in Rochester, N.H. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis gestures during a campaign event, Monday, July 31, 2023, in Rochester, N.H. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

After Biden took office in 2021, he left the Trump tariffs in place and went further. Biden began encouraging allies to join the United States in containing China’s expansionist policies, instead of going it alone the way Trump did. In 2022, Biden lobbied for and signed the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, a huge package of subsidies meant to boost US manufacturing of semiconductors, green energy components, and many other things — much as China subsidizes its own domestic manufacturing. A boom in US factory construction suggests those incentives are working.

Then last fall, Biden rolled out extensive restrictions on the exports of advanced US semiconductors and other high-end technology to China. In June, Biden told a private audience Xi Jinping was “a dictator,” which irked the Chinese president, even if it might be true. China called Biden’s quip needlessly provocative and said US-China relations were at the lowest point in more than 40 years.

So what might DeSantis do on top of all this? He called for an end to normal trade relations with China and said he would ban the import of Chinese products built with stolen technology. That’s not a big expansion of Biden policies and it might be little more than symbolic. China’s “normal” trade relationship with the United States is already undermined by the Trump tariffs and Biden sanctions, and who knows how the US government would assess which of the thousands of Chinese products coming to the United States include pirated technology.

Like Biden, DeSantis also wants to exert a government hand to boost certain parts of the manufacturing sector. He’d seek to repeal Biden’s green energy subsidies, however, and focus more on the domestic fossil fuel industry. If he were president, DeSantis could do a bit of that on his own through regulatory and executive action, but it would require Congress to undo hundreds of billions in green energy subsidies Congress passed last year, and replace them with subsidies directed elsewhere — no easy lift.

DeSantis distinguishes himself from Biden more clearly on cultural issues that have economic implications, such as diversity and inclusion policies and investing focused on environmental factors. DeSantis says he will “end the politicization of the economy” by discouraging or forbidding these kinds of policies in businesses, schools, and other organizations, but critics argue that DeSantis is the one politicizing the economy by focusing on these issues in the first place. Whatever the case, voters haven’t responded very enthusiastically to DeSantis’s “anti-woke” crusade, and DeSantis didn’t use his go-to word—”woke”— a single time in his July 31 speech. The dogs have not responded to this dog whistle. Maybe DeSantis decided to stop blowing it.

Here’s a fresh and interesting DeSantis idea: Hold universities accountable if students take on gobs of debt to get a degree and don’t earn enough once they graduate to pay it off. That does differ from Biden’s approach, which is to forgive a certain amount of debt, which would benefit the borrower but require nothing of the university. Mostly everybody agrees the cost of college in the United States is out of control and the current system of financing badly broken.

Finally, DeSantis finds a familiar bogeyman responsible for America’s economic woes in the Federal Reserve. He says the Fed should worry about inflation alone and stay out of extraneous matters such as saving the US economy during a financial crash or a pandemic. Except guess what: If DeSantis were president during such a crisis, he’d beg the Fed to ride to the rescue, because it’d be foolish to let a depression ruin lives if you had an alternative, and because President DeSantis’s own political survival would depend on a Fed bailout. Tough talk often ends the moment the election takes place.

Asian American workers most likely to be replaced by AI, study reveals

Next Shark

Asian American workers most likely to be replaced by AI, study reveals

Ryan General – July 31, 2023

Asian Americans are among the groups most vulnerable to displacement by artificial intelligence (AI) in the U.S., a new study by Pew Research Center has revealed.

About the study: The study, released on Wednesday, looked into the exposure of American workers to AI technologies and their potential risk of being replaced or assisted by AI systems.

Technical writers, budget analysts, web developers and data key operators are among those with high exposure to AI displacement, while workers such as firefighters, barbers and janitors have low exposure due to the nature of their work.

Impact on racial disparities: Overall, the study found that approximately 19% of American workers held jobs that are the most exposed to AI technologies.

More from NextShark: Bruce Lee may have died from drinking too much water, new study says

Asian workers face the highest risk of displacement at 24% compared to their white, Black and Hispanic counterparts. According to the findings, about 20% of white workers were found to be exposed, while 15% of Black workers and 13% of Hispanic workers faced similar risks.

Other findings: Women faced a slightly higher risk with 21% of female workers being exposed to AI in their jobs, compared to 19% of male workers. This discrepancy is attributed to the different types of jobs typically held by individuals of different genders.

The study also revealed a correlation between education levels and susceptibility to AI displacement or assistance. Workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher accounted for 27% of the workforce and were more than twice as likely to be exposed to AI technologies in their jobs than those with only a high school diploma, of which 12% faced similar risks.

The study also shed light on income disparities among workers with varying levels of AI exposure. Those in jobs with the highest exposure to AI technologies earned an average hourly wage of $33, while those in positions with the least exposure earned an average of $20 per hour.

Study’s implications: The findings, which provide crucial insights into the impact of AI on the American workforce, hold significant implications for policymakers and employers.

By identifying the groups most vulnerable to AI displacement, the study’s authors aim to provide policymakers with the ability to devise targeted strategies to support affected individuals and create measures to minimize potential workforce disruptions.

Global disruption: A previous study published by the University of Oxford in 2013 predicted that 47% of U.S. jobs could be eliminated by AI over the next two decades.

Meanwhile, a more recent study by Goldman Sachs suggested that generative AI tools could potentially disrupt around 300 million full-time jobs worldwide, signifying a significant disruption in the global job market.