State Farm will no longer accept applications for homeowners insurance in California, citing wildfire risk

ABC News

State Farm will no longer accept applications for homeowners insurance in California, citing wildfire risk

 Julia Jacobo – May 28, 2023

One of the largest insurance agencies in the country will no longer accept applications for home and business insurance in California due to wildfire risks and the cost of rebuilding.

State Farm has ceased new applications, including all business and personal lines property and casualty insurance, starting Saturday, the company announced in a press release.

PHOTO: The headquarters for State Farm Insurance is shown in Bloomington, Illinois. (Google Maps Street View)
PHOTO: The headquarters for State Farm Insurance is shown in Bloomington, Illinois. (Google Maps Street View)

Existing customers will not be affected, and the company will continue to offer auto insurance in the state, according to the release.

The insurance agency cited “historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market” for its decision.

MORE: Mosquito Fire in Northern California has destroyed dozens of homes

State Farm said while it takes its responsibility to manage risk “seriously” and will continue to work with state policymakers and the California Department of Insurance to help build market capacity in California, the decision was necessary to ensure the company remains in good financial standing.

“It’s necessary to take these actions now to improve the company’s financial strength,” the statement read. “We will continue to evaluate our approach based on changing market conditions. State Farm® independent contractor agents licensed and authorized in California will continue to serve existing customers for these products and new customers for products not impacted by this decision.”

PHOTO: In this Sept. 7, 2022, file photo, a property destroyed by Mosquito Fire is shown in the Michigan Bluff neighborhood of Foresthill, in Placer County, Calif. (Fred Greaves/Reuters, FILE)
PHOTO: In this Sept. 7, 2022, file photo, a property destroyed by Mosquito Fire is shown in the Michigan Bluff neighborhood of Foresthill, in Placer County, Calif. (Fred Greaves/Reuters, FILE)

A decadeslong megadrought and climate change have been exacerbating wildfire risk in California in recent years. Severe drought during the winter is leading to matchbox conditions in the dry season, allowing intense wildfires to ignite with the slightest spark.

The warm, dry climate that serves as fuel for wildfires is typical for much of the West, but hotter overall temperatures on Earth are increasing wildfire risk in the region.

MORE: Out-of-control wildfire destroys town of Greenville, California, as dry, gusty conditions encourage rapid spread

Last year, the Mosquito Fire destroyed dozens of homes in El Dorado and Placer counties. In 2021, the Dixie Fire destroyed more than 100 homes in the town of Greenville.

The Creek Fire in 2020 became the largest single fire in California history, damaging or destroying nearly 1,000 structures and burning through about 380,000 acres.

PHOTO: In this Sept. 24, 2021, file photo a burned residence is shown in Greenville, Calif. The Dixie fire has burned almost 1 million acres and remains at 94% containment after burning through 5 counties and more than 1,000 homes. (Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images, FILE)
PHOTO: In this Sept. 24, 2021, file photo a burned residence is shown in Greenville, Calif. The Dixie fire has burned almost 1 million acres and remains at 94% containment after burning through 5 counties and more than 1,000 homes. (Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images, FILE)

Rebuilding from wildfire destruction is expensive, expensive, experts have found.

The reconstruction costs from the 2022 Coastal Fire in Southern California were estimated to be $530 million, and only 20 homes were destroyed, according to a report by property solutions firm CoreLogic.

MORE: Creek Fire becomes largest single blaze in California history

In addition, the nationwide impact of California’s 2018 wildfire season — which included the Camp Fire, the most destructive in California history — totaled $148.5 billion in economic damage, according to a study by the University College London.

PHOTO: In this Sept. 8, 2020, file photo, a home is engulfed in flames during the 'Creek Fire' in the Tollhouse area of unincorporated Fresno County, Calif. (Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images, FILE)
PHOTO: In this Sept. 8, 2020, file photo, a home is engulfed in flames during the ‘Creek Fire’ in the Tollhouse area of unincorporated Fresno County, Calif. (Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images, FILE)

The state’s FAIR Plan provides basic fire insurance coverage for high-risk properties when traditional insurance companies will not, but that plan is the last resort, Janet Ruiz, director of strategic communication for the Insurance Information Institute, told ABC San Francisco station KGO.

“It’s a basic policy, only covers fire – you have to get a wraparound policy too to cover theft and liability,” she said.

Florida flood insurance costs are about to explode. ZIP codes closest to the coast will pay the most

South Florida Sun Sentinel

Florida flood insurance costs are about to explode. ZIP codes closest to the coast will pay the most

Ron Hurtibise, South Florida Sun Sentinel – May 22, 2023

Events of the past year have convinced more Florida homeowners of the need to carry flood insurance.

Flooding caused by hurricanes Ian and Nicole caught hundreds, if not thousands, of homeowners across the state by surprise, and without flood insurance.

Similarly, many homeowners affected by last month’s historic rainfall in eastern Broward County had no flood insurance and learned tragically that damage caused by water rising from the ground was not covered by their normal homeowner insurance.

It’s not just flood victims who are experiencing hard lessons about flood insurance.

Just as homeowners are realizing the increased risks of going without flood coverage, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has released data showing that coverage costs are exploding for properties in coastal areas most vulnerable to flooding.

The cost hikes stem from mandates by Congress to require rates charged by the National Flood Insurance Program, which is run by FEMA, to reflect the cost of flood risk to individual covered properties, and to pay down the program’s deficit, which was $20.5 million as of last November, according to FEMA.

The result is a new risk pricing model called Risk Rating 2.0, which took effect on Oct. 1, 2021, for new NFIP policies and on April 1, 2022, for renewing policies. Rather than set rates solely based on a property’s elevation within a zone on a Flood Insurance Rate Map, the new approach considers more risk variables such as flood frequency, types of flooding, and distance to a water source, along with individual property characteristics like elevation and the cost to rebuild, FEMA’s website states.

Improved modeling, however, is of little comfort to homeowners who will have to pay more for flood insurance at the same time costs of regular multiperil property insurance are skyrocketing.

Recently, FEMA released a spreadsheet that compared average premiums currently and how high they’ll climb under the new pricing model.

For example, homeowners in Boca Raton’s 33432 ZIP code can look forward to a whopping 229% flood insurance premium increase, from an average $950 per policy to $3,128.

In Broward County, the 33305 ZIP code that includes Wilton Manors and Fort Lauderdale neighborhoods near the Middle River will pay 209% more, from $1,099 to $3,400.

In the 33315 zip code, which includes Fort Lauderdale’s Edgewood neighborhood that was among the hardest-hit by last month’s flooding, average rates will increase by 64% — from $863 currently to $1,420.

These numbers are averages. Within each ZIP code are less expensive homes with cheaper coverage costs and pricier homes that will cost even more to insure.

Unsurprisingly, homes nearest the coast, particularly in low-lying areas, cost far more to insure than homes on higher ground in western suburban cities.

For example, homeowners in Coral Springs’ 33071 ZIP code are looking at a total premium increase of just 17.6% — from $669 to $787.

FEMA says the new pricing model will also drive down the cost of flood insurance for customers with low-risk characteristics. Yet, none of South Florida’s ZIP codes will see average rates decrease, FEMA’s data shows.

Not everyone facing rate increases will have to pay the higher premiums immediately. While homeowners who previously did not carry NFIP flood insurance will have to pay the new higher prices if they want a new policy, price hikes for existing policyholders are capped at 18% a year for homesteaded properties and 25% annually for second homes or investment properties, until they reach the new rates.

If the total increase is 18% or less, affected homeowners will pay it just once — presumably until FEMA raises rates again, whenever that happens.

Few homes have flood insurance, even in Florida

Although Florida has the largest number of NFIP flood insurance policies of any U.S. state — 597,967 of 2.2 million in the U.S., FEMA data shows, the percentage of covered homes remains low.

Florida has 3.8 million detached single-family homes, according to 2020 census figures. The number of FEMA flood insurance policies are just 15.7% of that total. In South Florida’s tricounty region, the percentage is 20.8%.

The actual percentages of homes with flood insurance are likely to be a little different. The above estimates don’t take into account private flood insurance policies, which are increasing but still a fraction of the number of federally-backed policies. And the estimates exclude attached single-family homes, such as townhomes. The percentage also does not include condominiums, which are typically covered by blanket commercial policies.

Experts advise every Florida homeowner to buy flood insurance because flooding can happen throughout the state, as during last fall’s hurricanes.

But many buy flood insurance only when required, such as home loan borrowers with federally backed mortgages who live in high-risk flood zones.

Flood insurance required for some with Citizens insurance

This year, a new set of homeowners are required to buy flood insurance. Customers of state-owned Citizens Property Insurance Corp. who live in high-risk flood zones are required to also carry flood insurance.

That mandate, enacted by the state Legislature and governor last year, took effect on April 1 for new Citizens policyholders and on July 1 for renewing policyholders.

Under the new law, all Citizens policyholders will have to buy flood insurance by 2027.

According to Citizens data, 228,203 of the company’s 1.2 million customers are now required to buy flood insurance. Of them, 105,763 are in Broward, Palm Beach or Miami-Dade counties.

When enacted last year, the law also required condo owners covered by Citizens to buy flood insurance. They were exempted, however, by a new law that was passed during the just-completed spring Legislative session and now awaits the governor’s signature. The change followed complaints that flood insurance is unnecessary for residents on upper floors of multistory buildings and for those covered by commercial policies that cover all units.

Although the mandate remains in place legally, Citizens has stopped sending notices to condo owners telling them they must buy flood insurance at renewal time, Citizens spokesman Michael Peltier said. Once it is signed, condo owners who bought coverage will be able to drop it.

If they bought FEMA coverage, they can request refunds if their policies have not yet taken effect, the NFIP’s website states.

Because the flood insurance requirement for renewing Citizens customers won’t take effect until July 1, Ryan Papy, president of Palmetto Bay-based Keyes Insurance, says it’s still a bit early to gauge the impact.

“There hasn’t been that much sticker shock,” Papy said in an email. “Many (premiums) in Miami-Dade County have gone down.”

But he added, “We do see issues when some clients are purchasing new property.” The difference between a new owner’s premiums and the capped rates paid by the previous owner can sometimes “be extreme,” he said.

Save money on the private market?

Florida homeowners hit hardest by rising NFIP rate hikes might ask their agents to see if they can save money by checking out the private flood insurance market.

Neptune Flood, the nation’s largest private flood insurer with more than 150,000 clients, can save policyholders up to 25% off the cost of comparable NFIP coverage, Neptune spokeswoman Loren Pomerantz said by email.

Private flood insurance satisfies requirements of both federal mortgage guarantors and Citizens, according to Pomerantz and Peltier.

Pomerantz said Neptune’s sales in Florida have increased in recent months. Sales climbed 20% in areas hard hit by Hurricane Ian prior to the new Citizens mandate taking effect. In high-risk flood zones, sales have increased 25% since April 1 compared to the same period last year, she said.

Private flood insurance also offers coverage that far exceeds the NFIP’s $250,000 cap for structural damage and $100,000 limit for personal property damage. “We can cover homes for up to $4 million in building coverage and $500,000 of personal property,” she said. “Additional coverage options not available through the NFIP include pool repair and refill, replacement cost on contents, temporary living expenses and more. This allows a homeowner to adequately cover their property and protect their families in the event of a flood-related loss.”

A ‘Canadian Armageddon’ Sets Parts of Western Canada on Fire

The New York Times

A ‘Canadian Armageddon’ Sets Parts of Western Canada on Fire

Dan Bilefsky – May 20, 2023

Flames from a prescribed burn, started by wildland firefighters in an attempt to halt the spread of larger wildfires, in Shining Bank, Alberta, Canada on May 19, 2023. (Jen Osborne/The New York Times)
Flames from a prescribed burn, started by wildland firefighters in an attempt to halt the spread of larger wildfires, in Shining Bank, Alberta, Canada on May 19, 2023. (Jen Osborne/The New York Times)

EDMONTON, Alberta — As acrid smoke filled the air, turning the sky around her sleepy hometown, Fox Creek, Alberta, a garish blood orange, Nicole Clarke said she felt a sense of terror.

With no time to collect family photographs, she grabbed her two young children, hopped into her pickup truck, and sped away, praying she wouldn’t drive into the blaze’s menacing path.

“This feels like a Canadian Armageddon, like a bad horror film,” said Clarke, a 37-year-old hair stylist, standing outside her truck, a large hamper of dirty laundry piled in the back.

In a country revered for placid landscapes and predictability, weeks of out-of-control wildfires raging across western Canada have ushered in a potent sense of fear, threatening a region that is the epicenter of the country’s oil and gas sector.

Climate research suggests that heat and drought associated with global warming are major reasons for the increase in bigger and stronger fires.

Amid frequent fire updates dominating national television news broadcasts, the blazes have also helped unite a vast and sometimes polarized nation, with volunteers, firefighters and army reservists from other provinces rushing in to lend a hand.

Roughly 29,000 people in Alberta have been forced from their homes by the recent bout of wildfires, though that number has been cut in half in recent days as fires subsided.

Clarke said her family had been staying in cheap motels since they were ordered about a week ago to evacuate. But she and her boyfriend were unemployed and money was quickly running out.

“I don’t know if I’ll have a home to return to,” she added Thursday, sobbing.

The fires have produced such thick smoke that during recess, children in some towns have remained in their classrooms rather than risk smoke inhalation outside. Dozens of residents left in such a frantic panic that they left pets behind.

On Highway 43, a long stretch of Alberta highway peppered by small, evacuated towns, the thick layer of smoke blanketing the road on Thursday conjured the feeling of a dystopia.

With helicopters hovering and dropping water, police cars with flashing lights blocked parts of the highway as fires approached the road. Residents trying to return to homes they hoped were still intact commiserated as they were forced to turn back.

Fires have broken out throughout western Canada, including British Columbia, but hardest hit has been neighboring Alberta, a proud oil and gas producing province sometimes referred to as “the Texas of the North,” which has declared a state of emergency. More than 94 active wildfires were burning as of Friday afternoon.

British Columbia was the site in 2021 of one of Canada’s worst wildfires in recent decades, when fires decimated the tiny community of Lytton after temperatures there reached a record 49.6 degrees Celsius, or 121.3 Fahrenheit.

Not since the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic buffeted the region has the area been so overcome by apprehension, accompanied by the all-too familiar need to wear masks outside. Only this time, residents say, a silent killer has been replaced by something more visceral and visible.

So far, no deaths have been reported. But in Alberta, Frankie Payou, a firefighter and 33-year-old father of three from the East Prairie Métis Settlement in Northern Alberta, was in a coma with severe injuries after being hit in the head by a burned tree. His home was also destroyed by a fire.

The bulk of the fires are in the far north of the province, home to many Indigenous communities, dealing a heavy blow to people who depend on the land and natural resources.

At a sprawling evacuation center in Edmonton, Ken Zenner, 61, a father of eight, two of whom are members of the Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation, said he and his family had been evacuated from the town of Valleyview. He worried how they would get by.

Families that have been displaced for a cumulative seven days are eligible for government-provided financial support, according to provincial regulations. But Zenner said he didn’t qualify because he had only been evacuated for six days.

“Indigenous communities have been underfunded for years and now we are seeing the consequences,” he said.

The rest of the country is mobilizing to help. Some 2,500 firefighters are battling the fires, among them 1,000 from other provinces. Joining them are wilderness firefighters from the United States.

The fires have even affected Alberta’s largest city, Calgary, where residents this week said they sat down for breakfast only to see and smell pungent smoke entering from cracks under their front doors.

Environment and Climate Change Canada said the air quality index for the city Wednesday afternoon was at 10+, or “very high risk.” Canadian health authorities have warned the smoke could cause symptoms ranging from sore and watery eyes to coughing, dizziness, chest pains and heart palpitations.

In Alberta, the blazes have brought back bad memories of 2016 when a raging wildfire destroyed 2,400 buildings in Fort McMurray, Alberta, the heart of Canada’s oil sands region with the third-largest reserves of oil in the world.

Alberta is Canada’s main energy-producing province and the United States’ largest source of imported oil and the fires have compelled some companies to curb production.

As flames bore down on wells and pipelines, major drillers such as Chevron and Paramount Resources together shut down the equivalent of at least 240,000 barrels of oil a day, according to energy consulting firm Rystad Energy.

For now, the disruptions affect only a small proportion of the country’s total oil and gas output. Still, they underscore how the production of oil and gas, the main driver of climate change, is also vulnerable to increasingly dire consequences of a warming planet.

Some say the fire may help galvanize Canadians about the perils of climate change. “The smoke from forest fires has an in-your-face impact affecting millions of Canadians that makes it harder to ignore,” the CBC, the national broadcaster, observed this week.

The human toll of the fires will reverberate for weeks to come. Christine Pettie, a business manager for a logging cooperative in Edson, a rural town about two hours west of Edmonton, said residents were still shellshocked after being evacuated.

She and her husband left in such a rush that he forgot his insulin medicine. They were fortunate that their home remained standing.

Still, Pettie said, the experience “definitely shook me to my core.”

Texas has the anti-climate Governor: Greg Abbott signs Law Making EV Owners Pay for Their Gas-Free Cars

Gizmodo

Greg Abbott Signs Law Making EV Owners Pay for Their Gas-Free Cars

Lauren Leffer – May 19, 2023

Photo of electric vehicles charging
Photo of electric vehicles charging


EV drivers in Texas don’t pay at the pump, but will have to start paying a significant annual fee that critics are calling “punitive.”

Driving an electric vehicle in Texas is soon to become more expensive. Governor Greg Abbott signed a law (SB 505) on May 13 instituting new fees for registering and owning EVs in the state. Under the bill, electric car owners will have to pay $400 upon registering their vehicle. Then, every subsequent year, EV drivers will have to shell out an additional $200. Both of those fees are on top of the cost of the standard annual registration renewal fees, which are $50.75 each year for most passenger cars and trucks.

The law exempts mopeds, motorcycles, and other non-car EVs, and goes into effect starting on September 1, 2023.

At least 32 states currently have special electric vehicle registration fees, according to data from the National Conference of State Legislatures. These range from $50 in places like Colorado, Hawaii, and South Dakota to $274 (starting in 2028) in a recently passed piece of Tennessee legislation. Note: Tennessee lawmakers had originally proposed a $300 fee, but lowered it in response to pushback.

Like many other states that have instituted EV fees, the reasoning behind the Lone Star State’s new law is that electric car drivers don’t buy gas. Taxes at the fuel pump are the primary way that most states, Texas included, amass funds for road construction, maintenance, and other driving-related infrastructure.

“Currently, Texas uses the gasoline/diesel fuel tax to fund transportation projects; however, with the growing use of EVs, the revenue from the fuel tax is decreasing, which diminishes our ability to fund road improvements for all drivers,” said the bill’s author, Republican State Senator Robert Nichols, in comments about the legislation, per local NBC News affiliate KXAN.

But, compared with what gas drivers contribute, Texas’s EV fees seem a little out of whack. Charging $200 per year and $400 at the outset of EV ownership places Texas’s fee schedule at the higher price end of the policies out there. In comparison, Texas’s gas tax is among the lowest in the country, at just $0.20 per gallon. Just seven states impose a lower duty on gasoline than TX. Among the 10 most populous states in the country, additional fees levied elsewhere make Texas’s gas the cheapest.

The average Texas driver burned through ~55 million BTUs of motor gasoline in 2018, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That’s equal to about 440 gallons of gas. At $0.20 per gallon, the standard car owner in Texas is paying just $88 per year in gas taxes—far less than the hundreds more EV drivers will now be throwing into the pot. A 2022 Consumer Reports analysis determined that a Texas driver’s gas tax contribution is even lower, at just $71.

The new law says loud and clear that Texas is “fully behind oil and gas,” Kara Kockleman, a transportation engineering professor at the University of Texas, Austin, told local ABC News affiliate KVUE. “Electric vehicles should pay a gas tax – I just think the tax on the conventional cars should be much, much higher than it is. We pay less for gas in this state than almost anyone in the world… Texas is really behind the curve on trying to do the right thing by the environment. And so, that’s embarrassing, I think, for all of us.”

There’s no doubt that roads and other car infrastructure are expensive. Though it can be easy to forget that—every time a driver cruises down the asphalt, complies with a traffic signal, or reads a highway sign—they’re benefiting from a costly system constructed for their particular use and benefit. But compared with other forms of transportation in the U.S., car ownership is already heavily subsidized. So is burning fossil fuels.

According to a 2015 analysis from the nonprofit Canadian media outlet The Discourse, society pays more than $9 for every $1 a driver pays in commuting: Through infrastructure, accident liability, noise and air pollution, and congestion. Buses, biking, and walking all eat up much less public funds for the same amount of miles traveled. EVs presumably also have a slightly lower public cost, as they’re quieter and don’t directly emit air pollution.

Yet in Texas, the tax load for driving an electric car will far exceed that of a gas-powered vehicle. The new law is “punitive” according to Consumer Reports. “Consumers should not be punished for choosing a cleaner, greener car that saves them money on fuel and maintenance,” Dylan Jaff, a policy analyst at CR, wrote in an April statement. “The fees proposed in this bill will establish an inequitable fee scale for EV owners, and will not provide a viable solution to the long-standing issue of road funding revenue.”

Luke Metzger, director of the non-profit advocacy group, Environment Texas, echoed Consumer Reports’ findings in a statement from last month. “The Texas Legislature is pouring sugar in the tank of the electric vehicle revolution. This punitive fee will make it harder for Texans to afford these clean vehicles which are so critical to reducing air pollution in Texas.”

Electric personal vehicles are not a perfect solution to the ongoing problem of petroleum-powered cars. Swapping every gas-guzzler for an EV still would use up an extraordinary amount of resources, that are likely to be ill-gotten. Public investment in mass transit would inarguably be a better environmental strategy. But, as long as the U.S. remains overwhelmingly car dominant and as long as most Americans lack access to adequate public transit, EV uptake remains important for lowering the nation’s carbon emissions.

Already, the upfront costs of purchasing an electric car are significantly higher than buying a gas vehicle. A disproportionate tax system adds to that burden, and it could dissuade people from transitioning to EVs.

Texas passes bill stripping authority from cities

The Hill

Texas passes bill stripping authority from cities


Saul Elbein – May 16, 2023

A sweeping Texas bill stripping authority from cities passed the state Senate on Tuesday and is now headed to the governor’s desk.

House Bill 2127 takes large domains of municipal governing — from payday lending laws to regulations on rest breaks for construction workers to laws determining whether women can be discriminated against based on their hair — out of the hands of the state’s largely Democratic-run cities and shifts them to its Republican-controlled legislature.

According to the Austin American Statesman, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has been a vocal supporter of the bill.

Progressive critics argue the legislation — which one lawyer for Texas cities called “the Death Star” for local control — represents a new phase in the campaign by conservative state legislatures to curtail the power of blue-leaning cities.

Opponents of the bill include civil society groups like the AFL-CIO — and representatives of every major urban area in Texas, along with several minor ones.

They argue the shift in power it would enable would hamstring cities’ abilities to make policies to fit their unique circumstances.

“Where the state is silent, and it is silent on a lot — local governments step into that breach, to act on behalf of our shared constituents,” state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt (D) told the Senate on Tuesday.

“We should be doing our job rather than micromanaging theirs.”

But the bill’s Senate sponsor, state Sen. Brandon Creighton (R), said it was necessary to protect “job creators” from “cities and counties acting as lawmakers outside of their jurisdiction.”

Both the legislation’s sponsors and the principal trade group that backed it — the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) — have argued local regulation poses an existential threat to Texas businesses.

“As prices escalate, property taxes increase, and workers remain in short supply, small business owners are continuing to struggle in this economic environment,” said Annie Spilman, state director of the NFIB, in a statement earlier this month. “Arduous local ordinances, no matter how well-intended, exacerbate these challenges.”

The NFIB’s solution to that problem: one set of rules governing business across the state, which it says will cut costs by preventing the “patchwork” of local and county regulations that govern Texas’s sprawling cities.

While the NFIB and the legislation are officially nonpartisan, support for the bill has been overwhelmingly Republican.

The bill passed the state Senate 18-13 on a nearly party-line vote after passing the House in April with the votes of just eight out of 65 Democrats.

If enacted, the legislation would have a wide reach, banning — technically “preempting” — broad swaths of the state code.

It would nullify many existing ordinances, like Austin and Dallas’s heat protections for construction workers.

It would also ban new restrictions on payday lending or puppy mills, although — after a long fight — existing city laws will be preserved.

Urban advocates say other specific local laws without state or federal analogs — like an Austin law banning discrimination based on hair texture or style — would also likely be struck down.

The bill failed to pass in the 2019 or 2021 sessions — in part because it was seen as too broad, Austin City Councilor Ryan Alter told The Hill.

But with every failed passage, Alter said, “The bill has only gotten broader.”

Alter listed the state preemption of the Property and Business and Commerce codes as two domains that would lead to unforeseen consequences for cities.

“We do a lot of things as the city as relates to property, land use and issues concerning land, and we make a lot of decisions that impact business and commerce,” Alter added.

The bill also preempts city and county ordinances relating to the Agriculture Code, Finance Code, Insurance Code, Labor Code, Natural Resources Code and Occupations Code.

One worry among the legislation’s opponents is procedural.

The state legislature only meets every two years, making each session a logjam of potential bills, most of which never go anywhere. In 2022, for example, the Legislature passed about 38 percent of the nearly 10,000 bills introduced.

That low frequency of meetings and state-level focus make the Legislature a body opponents argue is ill-suited to managing the day-to-day affairs of cities.

Under the new law, “cities and counties across Texas will have to rely on the state’s part-time Legislature, which meets for only 140 days every two years, to address various issues and problems of local concern,” Adrian Shelley, Texas director for public interest advocacy group Public Citizen, said in a statement.

Spilman of the NFIB has argued the law was necessary to rein in out-of-control municipal governments.

The long campaign for the legislation that became H.B. 2127 began in 2018, when Dallas, Austin and San Antonio passed ordinances requiring employers to offer paid sick leave.

Those laws were later shot down by state and federal courts as a violation of state bans on raising the minimum wage above the federal standard.

But the ordinances would have given city governments subpoena power to investigate potential violations — powers which worried the NFIB, Spilman said in an April statement.

“I just don’t know why a city ordinance would have something in there like that. That’s very frightening to a small business owner, with no compliance officers.”

The need for the legislation was urgent, she added at the time. “You go another two years without this protection — we just don’t know what cities might propose next.”

Opponents, meanwhile, argue the bill would present challenges to businesses because its scope is so broad as to make it impossible to say how far it will reach.

“If there is one thing businesses hate it is uncertainty,” Houston city attorney Collyn Peddie wrote in an April statement.

“Because 2127 barely attempts to define the fields that it purports to preempt, [self-governing] cities will not know what laws to enforce and, more important, businesses will not know what laws to obey,” Peddie continued.

Another source of concern for bill opponents is the method of enforcement, which — as in the case of the state’s “bounty” abortion ban — would occur through lawsuits.

The bill would authorize “any person who has sustained an injury in fact, actual or treated” to sue cities and counties for passing ordinances in areas now officially under the domain of the state.

Winners of such suits would get damages and attorney’s fees covered.

Whenever cities pass big ordinances, “people get clever in their lawsuits to challenge anything they don’t like,” said Alter, the Austin councilor.

“And because the bill is so broad there are a lot of opportunities for people to poke holes in any bills the city passes.”

The NFIB’s position is that the newly preempted powers aren’t being taken away from cities: They’re ones the cities never had to start with, as Spilman explained to The Hill.

The legislation’s GOP sponsors agree. “It’s a ‘stay in your lane’ bill,” Rep. Dustin Burrows (R) said at a February event hosted by the NFIB. “If you’re a city, do your core functions. If you’re a county, do your core functions.”

Burrows has dismissed critics of the bill as “taxpayer-funded lobbyists” who he told the Texas Tribune in March were “out in full force trying to undermine this effort.”

In those remarks, Burrows took a tack familiar from statehouse Republican messaging nationwide.

Groups opposing the bills, he added, “are beholden to special interest groups who cannot get their liberal agenda through at the statehouse, so they go to city halls across the State, creating a patchwork of unnecessary and anti-business ordinances.”

But bill opponents argued that local laws are a patchwork because local conditions are, too.

“Lawmakers who voted for this must explain to their constituents why they gave away local authority to lawmakers hundreds of miles away in Austin who may have never even set foot in their community,” said Adrian Shelley, Texas director of advocacy group Public Citizen.

Eckhardt, the state senator from Bastrop, argued the legislation “obliterates the local balancing of interests that creates the distinct local flavor from Lubbock to Houston, Laredo to Texarkana.”

Bills like House Bill 2127 “excuse the Texas legislature from leading,” she added.

“We are wasting our precious 140 days — when we could be doing statewide health, education, justice and prosperity policies — barging into bedrooms, locker rooms, boardrooms examining rooms and now city council meetings.”

Texas passes bill stripping authority from cities

The Hill

Texas passes bill stripping authority from cities


Saul Elbein – May 16, 2023

A sweeping Texas bill stripping authority from cities passed the state Senate on Tuesday and is now headed to the governor’s desk.

House Bill 2127 takes large domains of municipal governing — from payday lending laws to regulations on rest breaks for construction workers to laws determining whether women can be discriminated against based on their hair — out of the hands of the state’s largely Democratic-run cities and shifts them to its Republican-controlled legislature.

According to the Austin American Statesman, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has been a vocal supporter of the bill.

Progressive critics argue the legislation — which one lawyer for Texas cities called “the Death Star” for local control — represents a new phase in the campaign by conservative state legislatures to curtail the power of blue-leaning cities.

Opponents of the bill include civil society groups like the AFL-CIO — and representatives of every major urban area in Texas, along with several minor ones.

They argue the shift in power it would enable would hamstring cities’ abilities to make policies to fit their unique circumstances.

“Where the state is silent, and it is silent on a lot — local governments step into that breach, to act on behalf of our shared constituents,” state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt (D) told the Senate on Tuesday.

“We should be doing our job rather than micromanaging theirs.”

But the bill’s Senate sponsor, state Sen. Brandon Creighton (R), said it was necessary to protect “job creators” from “cities and counties acting as lawmakers outside of their jurisdiction.”

Both the legislation’s sponsors and the principal trade group that backed it — the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) — have argued local regulation poses an existential threat to Texas businesses.

“As prices escalate, property taxes increase, and workers remain in short supply, small business owners are continuing to struggle in this economic environment,” said Annie Spilman, state director of the NFIB, in a statement earlier this month. “Arduous local ordinances, no matter how well-intended, exacerbate these challenges.”

The NFIB’s solution to that problem: one set of rules governing business across the state, which it says will cut costs by preventing the “patchwork” of local and county regulations that govern Texas’s sprawling cities.

While the NFIB and the legislation are officially nonpartisan, support for the bill has been overwhelmingly Republican.

The bill passed the state Senate 18-13 on a nearly party-line vote after passing the House in April with the votes of just eight out of 65 Democrats.

If enacted, the legislation would have a wide reach, banning — technically “preempting” — broad swaths of the state code.

It would nullify many existing ordinances, like Austin and Dallas’s heat protections for construction workers.

It would also ban new restrictions on payday lending or puppy mills, although — after a long fight — existing city laws will be preserved.

Urban advocates say other specific local laws without state or federal analogs — like an Austin law banning discrimination based on hair texture or style — would also likely be struck down.

The bill failed to pass in the 2019 or 2021 sessions — in part because it was seen as too broad, Austin City Councilor Ryan Alter told The Hill.

But with every failed passage, Alter said, “The bill has only gotten broader.”

Alter listed the state preemption of the Property and Business and Commerce codes as two domains that would lead to unforeseen consequences for cities.

“We do a lot of things as the city as relates to property, land use and issues concerning land, and we make a lot of decisions that impact business and commerce,” Alter added.

The bill also preempts city and county ordinances relating to the Agriculture Code, Finance Code, Insurance Code, Labor Code, Natural Resources Code and Occupations Code.

One worry among the legislation’s opponents is procedural.

The state legislature only meets every two years, making each session a logjam of potential bills, most of which never go anywhere. In 2022, for example, the Legislature passed about 38 percent of the nearly 10,000 bills introduced.

That low frequency of meetings and state-level focus make the Legislature a body opponents argue is ill-suited to managing the day-to-day affairs of cities.

Under the new law, “cities and counties across Texas will have to rely on the state’s part-time Legislature, which meets for only 140 days every two years, to address various issues and problems of local concern,” Adrian Shelley, Texas director for public interest advocacy group Public Citizen, said in a statement.

Spilman of the NFIB has argued the law was necessary to rein in out-of-control municipal governments.

The long campaign for the legislation that became H.B. 2127 began in 2018, when Dallas, Austin and San Antonio passed ordinances requiring employers to offer paid sick leave.

Those laws were later shot down by state and federal courts as a violation of state bans on raising the minimum wage above the federal standard.

But the ordinances would have given city governments subpoena power to investigate potential violations — powers which worried the NFIB, Spilman said in an April statement.

“I just don’t know why a city ordinance would have something in there like that. That’s very frightening to a small business owner, with no compliance officers.”

The need for the legislation was urgent, she added at the time. “You go another two years without this protection — we just don’t know what cities might propose next.”

Opponents, meanwhile, argue the bill would present challenges to businesses because its scope is so broad as to make it impossible to say how far it will reach.

“If there is one thing businesses hate it is uncertainty,” Houston city attorney Collyn Peddie wrote in an April statement.

“Because 2127 barely attempts to define the fields that it purports to preempt, [self-governing] cities will not know what laws to enforce and, more important, businesses will not know what laws to obey,” Peddie continued.

Another source of concern for bill opponents is the method of enforcement, which — as in the case of the state’s “bounty” abortion ban — would occur through lawsuits.

The bill would authorize “any person who has sustained an injury in fact, actual or treated” to sue cities and counties for passing ordinances in areas now officially under the domain of the state.

Winners of such suits would get damages and attorney’s fees covered.

Whenever cities pass big ordinances, “people get clever in their lawsuits to challenge anything they don’t like,” said Alter, the Austin councilor.

“And because the bill is so broad there are a lot of opportunities for people to poke holes in any bills the city passes.”

The NFIB’s position is that the newly preempted powers aren’t being taken away from cities: They’re ones the cities never had to start with, as Spilman explained to The Hill.

The legislation’s GOP sponsors agree. “It’s a ‘stay in your lane’ bill,” Rep. Dustin Burrows (R) said at a February event hosted by the NFIB. “If you’re a city, do your core functions. If you’re a county, do your core functions.”

Burrows has dismissed critics of the bill as “taxpayer-funded lobbyists” who he told the Texas Tribune in March were “out in full force trying to undermine this effort.”

In those remarks, Burrows took a tack familiar from statehouse Republican messaging nationwide.

Groups opposing the bills, he added, “are beholden to special interest groups who cannot get their liberal agenda through at the statehouse, so they go to city halls across the State, creating a patchwork of unnecessary and anti-business ordinances.”

But bill opponents argued that local laws are a patchwork because local conditions are, too.

“Lawmakers who voted for this must explain to their constituents why they gave away local authority to lawmakers hundreds of miles away in Austin who may have never even set foot in their community,” said Adrian Shelley, Texas director of advocacy group Public Citizen.

Eckhardt, the state senator from Bastrop, argued the legislation “obliterates the local balancing of interests that creates the distinct local flavor from Lubbock to Houston, Laredo to Texarkana.”

Bills like House Bill 2127 “excuse the Texas legislature from leading,” she added.

“We are wasting our precious 140 days — when we could be doing statewide health, education, justice and prosperity policies — barging into bedrooms, locker rooms, boardrooms examining rooms and now city council meetings.”

Significant El Niño event is almost guaranteed this year, experts warn. And it could be a big one.

Live Science

Significant El Niño event is almost guaranteed this year, experts warn. And it could be a big one.

Harry Baker – May 12, 2023

 A rainbow-colored map of the world showing different sea surface temperatures across the globe.
A rainbow-colored map of the world showing different sea surface temperatures across the globe.
A rainbow-colored map of the world showing different sea surface temperatures across the globe.
A rainbow-colored map of the world showing different sea surface temperatures across the globe.

The chance of the ocean-warming event known as El Niño hitting this year is now over 90%. It will likely begin in the coming months, and there is a good chance it will persist into 2024 and have a widespread impact, experts have warned.

El Niño, which means “the little boy” in Spanish, is a major climatic event caused by changes to ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean. This heating event is strong enough to trigger major changes in global weather patterns and seriously impact marine ecosystems, especially combined with the effects of human-caused climate change. El Niño, along with its counterpart La Niña, or “the little girl” — a cooling event triggered by changes to the same ocean current system — make up the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

Experts have suspected that an El Niño event could be on the horizon for some time. And on May 3, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted there was a 60% chance that it would begin between May and July.

But on May 11, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) released its own forecast, which suggested that it is a near certainty that El Niño will begin during the same period. The agency also said there was a 90% chance that El Niño will persist into 2024.

Related: Is climate change making the weather worse?

“Keep your eyes peeled on the tropics, and don’t blink,” Nathaniel Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, wrote in a NOAA blog post. “Conditions are evolving quickly!”

ENSO cycle 101

The ENSO cycle is mainly linked to trade winds in the Pacific Ocean that blow westward along the equator. Normally, this blows warmer surface waters from South America toward Asia, which are in turn replaced by cooler deep ocean waters in a process known as upwelling, according to NOAA.

Cyclone Freddy between Mozambique and Madagascar on March 8. The image was captured by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NOAA-20 satellite.
Cyclone Freddy between Mozambique and Madagascar on March 8. The image was captured by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NOAA-20 satellite.

During El Niño, the trade winds weaken, which leads to reduced upwelling and in turn warmer surface waters. During La Niña, the trade winds are unusually strong, which has the opposite effect. Both events can trigger extreme weather events, such as the potentially record-breaking Cyclone Freddy that battered parts of Africa in February and March.

The periods between El Niño and La Niña events are known as ENSO neutral.

When was the last El Niño?

In the past, El Niño and La Niña events occurred roughly once every two to seven years, according to NOAA. But their appearance has recently become much more erratic due to the effects of climate change: In the last 50 years, the ocean has absorbed nearly 90% of the energy trapped by global warming, which has drastically increased sea surface temperatures, impacting the ENSO cycle.

The last El Niño event occurred between February and August 2019 and was quite weak. Between July 2020 and March 2023, a rare triple-dip La Niña suppressed rising global temperatures.

El Niño events normally last somewhere between nine months and two years but can be longer.

How strong will El Niño be?

It’s unclear exactly how strong this El Niño will become, but NOAA’s predictions suggest there is an 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño, where sea surface temperatures will rise by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius), and a 55% chance of a strong El Niño, where temperatures will rise by 2.7 F (1.5 C).

Experts are also concerned that recent high sea surface temperatures will make the upcoming El Niño worse. In early April, the average global sea surface temperature was the highest in recorded history.

A map of the U.S. showing the effects of el nino. There is a warm front coming in from NW Canada, a dry patch over parts of NW America and a wet patch over the Southern US from California to Florida.
A map of the U.S. showing the effects of el nino. There is a warm front coming in from NW Canada, a dry patch over parts of NW America and a wet patch over the Southern US from California to Florida.

NOAA will provide more information on how El Niño is progressing in early June.

How will El Niño affect North America?

During El Niño, the weaker trade winds mean more warm water is pushed back east toward the west coast of the Americas. The warmer waters push the Pacific jet stream south of its neutral position, which impacts weather patterns in North America, according to NOAA.

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For the northern U.S. and Canada, this can lead to warmer weather than usual, while eastern states often receive less rainfall. For the southern U.S. and northern Mexico, the result is often heavy rainfall, which can cause flooding and landslides.

The WMO expects global temperatures to rise to record levels during the next few years as La Niña’s cooling effect ends and El Niño begins, which could severely impact the lives of millions of people.

El Niño Is Coming in Strong, NOAA Says

Gizmodo

El Niño Is Coming in Strong, NOAA Says

Angely Mercado – May 12, 2023

Poisonous algae bloom affected major cities and fishing towns in Chile in 2016. Experts said it was linked to high temperatures stemming from the El Niño.
Poisonous algae bloom affected major cities and fishing towns in Chile in 2016. Experts said it was linked to high temperatures stemming from the El Niño.

El Niño almost here, the global shift is likely to stick around until this winter, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced this week. After an unusual three-year La Niña, all signs are pointing to changes in weather patterns for 2023.

Last month, NOAA said there was a 62% chance that El Niño would develop between May and July. Things have rapidly progressed, and now there is a 90% chance of El Niño forming and persisting into the end of this year, according to NOAA.

These two “siblings” are global climate shifts that are marked by cooler or warmer ocean temperatures and changes in global air currents, which alter weather and storm patterns. La Niña is associated with lower-than-average ocean temperatures, while El Niño is the opposite. Experts have noticed quickly rising ocean temperatures lately, one of the signs of a formation year.

What can we expect now that The Boy is coming to town? Ocean temperatures are going to rise above average. The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be milder, because storms are more likely to form there during La Niña years. However, storms are more likely to form in the Pacific. In the U.S., the shift brings more rain to southern states and to the East Coast. It also brings warmer temperatures to northern states.

El Niño years are especially hot. This was certainly true in 2016, one of the hottest years on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Scorching temperatures have already pummeled Southeast Asia—just last week, Vietnam recorded its hottest temperature ever. Expect more extreme heat to come this year.

Pancreatic cancer rates are spiking in women 55 and under. Experts don’t yet know why.

Yahoo! Life

Pancreatic cancer rates are spiking in women 55 and under. Experts don’t yet know why.

Korin Miller – May 10, 2023

Pancreatic cancer collage with jaundiced eyes, an IV bag, and a woman's hand on her face.
Pancreatic cancer rates are spiking in women under 55, according to a recent study. (llustration: Blake Cale; Photo: Getty Images)

Allison Lippman-Kuban was just 31 when she was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in 2017. Lippman-Kuban tells Yahoo Life that she first developed symptoms of the disease after she returned from a vacation in France with her boyfriend.

“I was having severe abdominal pain that shot into my back,” she says. “I had weight loss, fatigue, trouble digesting food — a lot of gastrointestinal issues.”

Lippman-Kuban reached out to her doctor and had tests scheduled with specialists, including a colonoscopy, to try to figure out what was behind her sudden pain. “But the pain got so severe that I ended up going to the hospital,” she says. She was hospitalized for five days, where she underwent a slew of tests. “I left with a diagnosis of neuroendocrine cancer and was later told it was stage 4 pancreatic cancer,” she says.

“I was just shocked,” Lippman-Kuban says. “I questioned everything, including why was my boyfriend staying with me. I had just been promoted at my job — I was nervous that I was going to lose that. Then, the fear of all of that subsided, and it was more, How long do I have to live?

Lippman-Kuban says she was urged “to do chemo as long as I could,” but her doctor also sent her biopsy to a lab for genetic sequencing. Her specific biomarker (a gene, protein or other substance that provides information about a type of cancer) qualified her for a clinical trial at MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston. “I’ve been on that trial for five and a half years now,” she says.

She says she’s had a “change of lifestyle” on the trial. “I stopped chemo, I take two pills in the morning and two pills each afternoon,” she says. “Within a month, my strength started coming back, my hair started coming back, and I was able to start rediscovering myself.”

Lippman-Kuban’s cancer isn’t gone, but her tumors have shrunk by 70%. “I now treat my cancer as a chronic illness,” she says. “I just take my medicine in the morning and the evening. I don’t have any side effects from it, which is great.”

Teona Ducre was just 41 when she was diagnosed with stage 3 pancreatic cancer in 2016. She tells Yahoo Life she had “extreme pain” in her lower stomach and lower back, along with exhaustion, indigestion and “substantial” weight loss. “Upon my initial diagnosis, I was in disbelief and did not fully appreciate the significance of the fact that pancreatic cancer is most often terminal,” she says.

Ducre discovered the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (PanCAN), a patient advocacy and research organization, and received guidance on her form of cancer, along with what to expect for treatment. She then underwent six months of chemotherapy, followed by surgery and five more months of chemotherapy. She’s now a pancreatic cancer survivor. “Survival is not some specified date in the future when the tumor is gone —survival is every single day a person wakes up and did not succumb to the disease,” she says.

Paula Mack Drill was diagnosed with stage 2 pancreatic cancer five years ago, when she was in her mid-50s. She tells Yahoo Life that she had been on sabbatical for three months from her job as a rabbi and “was coming off the most healthy, toxic-free diet” when she started having symptoms. Drill hosted people at her house for Passover Seder and kept eating a chocolate and caramel dessert that she jokingly refers to as “Matzo Crack.” “Around 5 a.m. the next morning, I had terrible stomach pain, which I assumed was from eating Matzo Crack,” she says. “But it got worse and worse as the day went on.”

The pain became so intense that Drill went to the emergency room. She was first diagnosed with pancreatitis — inflammation of the pancreas — but was later informed that the doctors had found a tumor. They suspected that she had pancreatic cancer (something that could only be confirmed with surgery) and needed surgery to remove the tumor, which was scheduled for three weeks from then.

“I was in deep denial,” she says of her diagnosis, noting that she didn’t look up anything about pancreatic cancer online. “I did not understand that pancreatic cancer is a killer,” she added.

Drill’s doctor was Dr. Russell C. Langan, director of surgical oncology, Northern Region at RWJBarnabas Health, Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey. “He saved my life,” she says. He performed a procedure known as a Whipple procedure, to remove the head of the pancreas, where Drill’s tumor was located.

“It’s a very intense, really hard surgery, and he came to me after the surgery and was practically crying,” Drill says. “He was able to take the tumor out. I was encapsulated. It hadn’t spread.”

Drill, who was diagnosed with stage 2 pancreatic cancer, says she had “heavy-duty chemo” after that twice a month for six months, followed by radiation therapy.

Now, she says she feels “100% better.” She just had a five-year scan that was clear. “Now, when I go in, it’s like a little party,” Drill says. “Everyone is happy, and we have a little celebration. I feel great.”

Pancreatic cancer rates are spiking in women of under age 55

While cancer rates have fallen in the U.S. as a whole over the last few years, there’s been a disturbing rise in pancreatic cancer diagnoses. More specifically, rates are spiking in women under the age of 55.

A study published in the journal Gastroenterologyin February analyzed data from nearly 455,000 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 2001 and 2018 and found that, while rates of the disease rose overall, they climbed in younger women. Specifically, the researchers found that the rates of pancreatic cancer in women under 55 rose 2.4% higher than those of men of the same age. The researchers also noted in the study that the trend did not appear to be “slowing down.”

Pancreatic cancer has a reputation as a fatal disease — its overall five-year survival rate is just 12% — and it used to be known as a cancer for older people. It also typically doesn’t cause symptoms until it is in the advanced stages, Dr. Anne Noonan, a medical oncologist with the Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center-Arthur G. James Cancer Hospital and Richard J. Solove Research Institute, tells Yahoo Life.

While the majority of pancreatic cancer cases are people in their 70s, doctors say they’ve seen an increase in the number of younger patients over the past few years. “We are certainly seeing more patients with pancreas cancer, and some patients are younger than the usual age at which we typically see it,” Noonan says. “Sometimes patients are in their 40s, 30s and even 20s.”

Pancreatic cancer is “still largely a disease of aging,” Dr. Shubham Pant, an associate professor in the department of gastrointestinal medical oncology at MD Anderson Cancer Center, tells Yahoo Life. “We are seeing a handful more of younger patients,” he says. “Before, we would see one or two a year. Now we are seeing five or more a year. It is increasing, but it’s a relative increase.”

Why are pancreatic cancer rates on the rise in women?

It’s not entirely clear. The most recent study only found an increase in cases — and did not explore why they’re on the rise. Langan says it’s possible that this could be due to an increase in obesity rates or alcohol consumption, but it could also be due to a variety of causes. “I would favor the cause being multifactorial,” he tells Yahoo Life.

“There are a number of theories,” Noonan says, including that pancreatic cancer may be linked to a high-fat diet, smoked and processed meats, physical inactivity and certain genetic mutations.

“But it’s very hard to say right now,” Pant says. “While the numbers are increasing, they are still very small.”

Pancreatic cancer symptoms can be easily confused with those of other illness, but may include jaundice, belly or back pain, weight loss and poor appetite and nausea and vomiting, according to the American Cancer Society.

Lippman-Kuban stresses the importance of getting evaluated by a doctor if you develop any symptoms. “If I had not pursued the pain and the treatment, I don’t know if I’d be here,” she says.

Climate change is bad for everyone. But this is where it’s expected to be worst in the US.

USA Today

Climate change is bad for everyone. But this is where it’s expected to be worst in the US.

Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY – May 7, 2023

If you’re thinking about a long-term real estate investment or shopping for a place to settle down for 20 or 30 years, you might be wondering which cities or states could fare better than others in a changing climate.

“There are no winners in a world where climate change gets worse,” said Alex Kamins, director of regional economics at Moody’s Analytics and author of a recent study on climate risks in the United States.

Climate change is ramping up the long-term risk almost everywhere, said Kamins and others. Temperatures are increasing. Oceans are warming, and rising. And scientists say the heat and higher sea levels help make some natural disasters more extreme.

The impacts vary widely over time and space, so it’s difficult to make a definitive ranking that says “buy here, not there,” but a growing body of evidence helps highlight some general trends.

USA TODAY looked at data from First Street and Moody’s Analytics – two organizations examining future climate risk – to see what areas of the country are most at risk from these climate impacts over the next 30 years.

Insurers and mortgage companies are asking the same kinds of questions, Kamins said. Banks are being asked to “stress test their portfolios in preparation for the impact of climate change.”

While locations with the greatest risks seem obvious – think Florida – others might surprise you.

Here’s your guide to what, when and where you can expect climate change impacts to be the worst in the U.S.

Each region sees risks

Climate change will have uneven impacts on the U.S. in coming decades. Some areas may experience more heat, more flooding, more extreme storms, or more intense wildfires – or all of the above.

The U.S. won’t see any locations underwater or wiped off the map over the next 30 years, Kamins said, but access to fresh water and insurance premiums will become bigger challenges.

“Every year it becomes increasingly crystal clear, just the amount of risk that we face, whether it’s increasingly severe natural disasters or droughts and heat risk,” he said. “In some cases it’s creating renewed momentum or brand new momentum for governments and businesses that hadn’t been thinking seriously about the impact of climate change before.”

Everyone loses out if others are impacted, because we all rely on goods and services from other states and countries,  said climate scientist Michael Mann, director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. “It’s a domino effect.”

East Coast: Wind, flooding and sea level rise stack the deck against many counties and states, especially Florida and the Carolinas, Kamins said. Bustling economies and distance to the beach still attract people in droves, but at some point the tide literally will turn against communities along beaches and coastal rivers.

Southwest: Heat and fire bring increasing risks, particularly in Arizona, he said, even without factoring in the perils of a dwindling water supply.

Interior: Intense heat may affect these states the most in runaway warming scenarios, Mann said. Sudden downpours with unprecedented rain also are occurring more often, even though these states aren’t in hurricane-prone coastal areas. One study he co-authored showed some of the greatest risk of heat stress could be in urban areas in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes.

Idaho to Minnesota: A swath of states across the northern U.S. look better than most, with less-pronounced risks, Kamins said. Recent statistics on an influx of newcomers to Idaho and its burgeoning tech hub in Boise show people may be figuring that out. He expects Montana may be the next frontier within 10-20 years.

What are the causes of climate change? How can it be stopped?

What are the effects of climate change? Disasters, weather and agriculture impacts.

States that may face more climate change risk sooner

Texas – Its sheer size and geography means Texas has a lot of risk. First Street’s data shows some of its counties are at great risk of wildfire, some face higher potential losses from tropical cyclone winds and some have greater flood risks. The Lone Star State leads the nation in billion-dollar disasters, according to information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It averages 5.3 such events a year, double the number it experienced in the previous 20, even adjusted for inflation.

Florida – 8,346 miles of shoreline, surrounded on three sides by water. Need we say more? Rising sea levels and extreme rainfall fueled by warming oceans, with the potential for more intense hurricanes while more people crowd into densely populated areas, increase the risks. Florida has the most top spots on First Street’s list of counties that could see the biggest increases in the number of days with the very warmest temperatures they experience today.

New Jersey – The Garden State has counties among the top of First Street’s lists for potential increases in average annual wind losses, extreme fire risk and properties at risk of flooding. New Jersey suffered three hurricanes or their remnants in 2021-22, including Hurricane Ida, Hurricane Henri and the final vestiges of Hurricane Ian. Forecasts for higher winds from more tropical cyclones and hurricanes aren’t good news.

California – Over the past three years, the state has seen its largest wildfire season in history, its worst drought in 1,200 years and a string of record-setting atmospheric rivers. Golden State residents need no reminder of the risks they face, but First Street’s data shows some California counties high on its lists for most extreme fire risk and some cities with the greatest percentage of residential properties at risk of flooding.

Which states did Moody’s Analytics find face the greatest physical risks?

When it comes to weather-related events, hurricanes are literally the heavy hitters when accounting for acute physical risk. Climate change already is cranking up the rain in some tropical storms and hurricanes and could be slowing them down over land but that research is still underway, scientists say. Floods and wildfires also figured into Kamins’ assessment of physical risks. Here’s his list:

  • Florida
  • Louisiana
  • South Carolina
  • North Carolina
  • Delaware
  • Rhode Island
  • New Jersey
  • Virginia
  • Massachusetts
  • Connecticut

Other locations suffer from change happening over time rather than in single headline-grabbing events. Think the creep of rising sea levels or warmer nights and higher average temperatures.

San Francisco faces above average risk across these categories and more, and is the nation’s most exposed large city, Kamins said.

Brown pelicans fly in front of the San Francisco skyline on August 17, 2018 in San Francisco, California.
Brown pelicans fly in front of the San Francisco skyline on August 17, 2018 in San Francisco, California.

It’s one of those urban areas where residents aren’t used to temperature extremes and many homes don’t have air conditioning, he said. In a world where temperatures rise 5-10 degrees, unlike Floridians, San Francisco residents are ill-equipped for dealing with heat and it could be economically damaging.

Other cities with more gradually increasing risk on the Moody’s Analytics list are:

Southeastern metropolitan areas are particularly risky because they’re experiencing rising sea levels and higher temperatures, in addition to a parade of cyclones that could be growing more intense, according to Kamins’ study. The top 10:

  • Jacksonville, NC
  • New Bern, NC
  • Myrtle Beach, SC
  • Wilmington, NC
  • Greenville, NC
  • Charleston, SC
  • Punta Gorda, FL
  • Deltona, FL
  • San Juan, PR
  • Palm Bay, FL
  • Goldsboro, NC
Billion dollar disaster data helps point to states already paying the price as the climate changes.

If there’s any doubt about risks from future climate change, look no further than NOAA’s list of the weather and climate disasters that caused at least $1 billion in damages.

At least 37 states suffered twice the number of billion dollar disasters this century than during the previous 20-years.

Tornado activity appears to be expanding in the Mid-South, with more frequent outbreaks, and a USA TODAY investigation showed extreme rainfall events are occurring more often along the Mississippi River Valley. Scientists say both trends may be linked to the warming Gulf of Mexico.

USA TODAY Investigation How a summer of extreme weather reveals a stunning shift in the way rain falls in America.

But it’s not just weather events causing the disaster toll to rise, NOAA said. More extreme weather events take a greater toll when population and development increase in vulnerable areas.

“Where you live is important, but how you live is just as important,” said Stephen Strader, a meteorologist and associate professor at Villanova University. “There are things we can do to better prepare our current developments for climate change.”

Billion dollar disaster events per year since 2001 (More than 3):

  • Texas – 5.3
  • Illinois – 3.9
  • Georgia – 3.7
  • Oklahoma – 3.6
  • Missouri – 3.5
  • North Carolina – 3.4
  • Alabama – 3.3
  • Tennessee – 3.3
  • Virginia – 3.2
  • Kansas – 3.1
  • Mississippi – 3.1

More than 300% increase in billion dollar disaster events per year since 2000:

  • Arizona – 500%
  • Wyoming – 450%
  • Utah – 400%
  • New Mexico – 367%
  • Nevada – 335%
  • Nebraska – 320%
  • Colorado – 300%
  • Wisconsin – 300%

When considering future scenarios, it’s important to note much remains within the world’s control, Mann said.

With substantial action to hold warming below 3 degrees F, “we can limit the worsening of extreme weather events,” although sea level increases would already be locked in, he said. A lack of action would mean “impacts in the interior of our continent could be every bit as bad.”

How taking action could help On Earth Day, scientists tell us what 2050 could be like. Their answers might surprise you.