Soils of war: The toxic legacy for Ukraine’s breadbasket
Rod Nickel – March 1, 2023
A view of the depression from shelling in field of grain farmer Andrii Povod that has been damaged by shelling and trenches, in BilozerkaGrain farmer Andrii Povod stands beside his field that has been damaged by shelling and trenches, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in BilozerkaA trench is seen near a field of grain farmer Andrii Povod, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in Bilozerka
BILOZERKA, Ukraine (Reuters) – When Ukraine recaptured Kherson in November, Andrii Povod returned to find his grain farm in ruins. Two tractors were missing, most of the wheat was gone and all 11 buildings used to store crops and machinery had been bombed and burned.
The farm bears the scars of Russian shelling and unexploded ordnance riddles the fields but it’s the less visible damage to Ukraine’s famously fertile soil after a year of war that could be the hardest to repair.
Scientists looking at soil samples taken from the recaptured Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine found that high concentrations of toxins such as mercury and arsenic from munitions and fuel are polluting the ground.
Using the samples and satellite imagery, scientists at Ukraine’s Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry Research estimated that the war has degraded at least 10.5 million hectares of agricultural land across Ukraine so far, according to the research shared with Reuters.
That’s a quarter of the agricultural land, including territory still occupied by Russian forces, in a country described as the breadbasket of Europe.
“For our region, it’s a very big problem. This good soil, we cannot reproduce it,” said Povod, 27, walking around his farm near Bilozerka in southeast Ukraine, about 10 km (6 miles) from the Dnipro River that is one of the war’s front lines.
Two dozen experts who spoke with Reuters, including soil scientists, farmers, grain companies and analysts, said it would take decades to fix the damage to Europe’s breadbasket – including contamination, mines and destroyed infrastructure – and that global food supplies could suffer for years to come.
Shelling has also upset the delicate ecosystems of microorganisms that turn soil materials into crop nutrients such as nitrogen while tanks have compressed the earth, making it harder for roots to flourish, the scientists say.
Some areas are so mined and physically transformed by craters and trenches that, like some World War One battlefields, they may never return to farm production, some experts say.
LOSS OF FERTILITY
Before the war, Ukraine was the world’s fourth-largest corn exporter and fifth-biggest wheat seller, and a key supplier to poor countries in Africa and the Middle East that depend on grain imports.
After Russia’s invasion a year ago, global grain prices climbed as the Black Sea ports that usually ship Ukraine’s harvest closed, exacerbating inflation rates around the world.
The war damage could cut Ukraine’s potential grain harvest by 10 to 20 million tonnes a year, or up to a third based on its pre-war output of 60 to 89 million tonnes, the Soil Institute’s director, Sviatoslav Baliuk told Reuters.
Other factors are also important for production levels, such as the area of land farmers plant, climate change, the use of fertilisers and adoption of new farming technology.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry declined to comment about soil contamination and long-term harm to the industry.
Besides the damage to the soil, Ukrainian farmers are struggling with unexploded shells in many fields, as well as the destruction of irrigation canals, crop silos and port terminals.
Andriy Vadaturskyi, chief executive of Nibulon, one of Ukraine’s biggest grain producers, expects demining alone to take 30 years and said urgent financial help was needed to keep Ukrainian farmers in business.
“Today, there is a problem of high prices but the food is available,” Vadaturskyi said in an interview. “But tomorrow, in one year’s time, it could be the situation if there is no solution, that it will be a shortage of food.”
Ukraine’s most fertile soil – called chernozem – has suffered the most, the institute found. Chernozem is richer than other soils in nutrients such as humus, phosphorus and nitrogen and extends deep into the ground, as much as 1.5 metres.
The institute’s Baliuk said the war damage could lead to an alarming loss of fertility.
Increased toxicity and reduced diversity of microorganisms, for example, have already reduced the energy corn seeds can generate to sprout by an estimated 26%, resulting in lower yields, he said, citing the Institute’s research.
ECHOES OF WORLD WAR ONE
A working group of soil scientists created by the Ukrainian government estimates it would cost $15 billion to remove all mines and restore Ukraine’s soil to its former health.
That restoration can take as little as three years, or more than 200, depending on the type of degradation, Baliuk said.
If studies of damage to land during World War One are anything to go by, some areas will never recover.
U.S. academics Joseph Hupy and Randall Schaetzl, coined the term “bombturbation” in 2006 to describe war’s impact on soil. Among the unseen damage, bomb breaches in bedrock or soil layers can change the water table’s depth, depriving vegetation of a shallow water source, they wrote.
At a former World War One battlefield near Verdun, France, some pre-war grain fields and pastures have gone unfarmed for more than a century due to craters and unexploded shells, a 2008 paper by Remi de Matos-Machado and Hupy said.
Hupy told Reuters that some arable land in Ukraine, too, may never return to crop production due to its contamination and topographic alteration. Many other fields will require significant earth-moving to relevel the ground, along with demining on a massive scale, Hupy said.
Naomi Rintoul-Hynes, senior lecturer in soil science and environmental management at Canterbury Christ Church University, studied soil contamination from World War One and fears the conflict in Ukraine is doing similar, irreversible damage.
“It is of utmost importance that we understand how bad the situation is as it stands,” she said.
Lead, for example, has a half-life of 700 years or more, meaning it may take that long for its concentration in the soil to decrease by half. Such toxins can accumulate so much in plants growing there that human health may become affected, Rintoul-Hynes said.
To be sure, World War One lasted four years, and the war in Ukraine only one year so far, but lead remains a key component of many modern munitions, Rintoul-Hynes said.
DEMINING CHALLENGE
Removing mines and other unexploded ordnance, which cover 26% of Ukraine’s land according to the government, will likely take decades, said Michael Tirre, Europe program manager for the U.S. State Department’s Office of Weapons Removal.
Andrii Pastushenko’s dairy farm in southeastern Ukraine, where he grows cattle feed and sunflowers, is pockmarked with craters and former Russian bunkers.
Though Ukraine recaptured the area in November, Russian forces shell his farm regularly from across the Dnipro River, blowing new holes in his fields and scattering unexploded ordnance, he said.
“We need many months to clear everything and continue to work, maybe years,” said Pastushenko, 39. “There is no help because we are on the first line of fire. No one will help while this is a war zone.”
There is currently no work underway on demining farms in the Kherson region because of a limited number of specialists, said Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, a spokesperson for the Kherson Regional Military Administration.
With so little help available, grain company Nibulon has created a small division dedicated to demining its land in southern Ukraine, a process expected to last decades, Mykhailo Rizak, Nibulon’s deputy director told Reuters.
“This is a very serious problem for Nibulon,” Rizak said.
There’s another long-term problem for Ukraine’s agricultural sector, which accounted for 10% of its gross domestic product before the war. That’s the damage to roads, railways and other infrastructure estimated at $35.3 billion and counting, the Kyiv School of Economics said in October.
“People think as soon as peace is achieved, the food crisis will be solved,” said Caitlin Welsh, director of global food security at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington. “With Ukraine, just repairing the infrastructure is going to take a really long time.”
Farmers’ finances are also in a desperate state, said Dmitry Skornyakov, chief executive of HarvEast, a major Ukrainian farming company.
Many farmers can survive this year, living off the income of a bumper year just before the war, said Skornyakov, but he predicts up to half will have severe financial problems if the conflict drags into 2024.
“The future is from grey to dark at the moment.”
(Reporting by Rod Nickel in Bilozerka; Additional reporting by Pavel Polityuk in Kyiv; Editing by David Clarke)
Republicans seize on train derailment to go after Buttigieg
Yasmeen Abutaleb, Ian Duncan and Justine McDaniel – March 1, 2023
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and other federal officials examine a burned Norfolk Southern rail car in East Palestine, Ohio. (Allie Vugrincic/AP)
Republicans are seizing on the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, to ramp up their attacks against Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, saying he is promoting his own agenda at the expense of families who are grappling with a toxic chemical accident in their backyard.
The Transportation Department does not have primary responsibility for the cleanup, and Buttigieg and his supporters are firing back, suggesting the GOP has other motives for its focus on him. The secretary, who sought the presidency in 2020, has taken the unusual step of responding directly to some of his critics, including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
The result is an unusually personal and, on occasion, vitriolic back-and-forth involving a transportation secretary who is also a rising star in his party, potential candidate for higher office and prominent gay official – far from the usual technocratic and logistical debates that surround the Transportation Department.
“I’ve never heard this level of criticism against another secretary, ever, and I’ve been following this a long time,” said Ray LaHood, a former Republican congressman who served as transportation secretary under President Barack Obama. “I’ve never seen it like this before. This is pure politics.”
Buttigieg has faced GOP criticism before, notably during supply chain disruptions early in Biden’s presidency and the failure of a federal aviation safety system in January. But people close to the transportation secretary say the attacks on him since the derailment have risen to a new level, noting that the Environmental Protection Agency, which is in charge of the response to the derailment, has taken far less heat.
Though part of a broader GOP criticism of the administration’s response to the derailment, the attacks on Buttigieg have in some cases been strikingly personal. Rubio tweeted that Buttigieg is “an incompetent who is focused solely on his fantasies about his political future & needs to be fired.” McConnell said on the Senate floor that Buttigieg is “more interested in pursuing press coverage for woke initiatives and climate nonsense than in attending to the basic elements of his day job.”
Some critics suggest Buttigieg should have been on the scene earlier – he visited East Palestine on Feb. 23, almost three weeks after the accident – but many of the accusations lack specificity, instead taking the secretary to task largely for his broader positions on issues such as the climate.
Buttigieg is one of the Biden administration’s most visible messengers, a deft debater who, unlike many Democrats, is often willing to appear on Fox News and other conservative outlets to advocate the White House’s priorities. A surprise star of the 2020 Democratic primaries, he moved last year from deep-red Indiana to the bluer state of Michigan, fueling speculation about further political ambitions.
Jeffrey Shane, a senior Transportation Department official during the presidency of George W. Bush, said that is one reason Buttigieg is receiving this level of attention. “Because his last act was running for president, Secretary Buttigieg is an unusually high-profile person to have the DOT job,” Shane said. “That visibility, together with genuine challenges in transportation and a toxic atmosphere in Washington, have combined to make this a difficult time.”
The White House argues that the administration implemented a by-the-book response to the train derailment, quickly dispatching federal experts from numerous agencies. The derailment itself did not harm or kill anyone, but some of the rail cars were carrying hazardous chemicals that leaked and burned in a massive fire.
Three days after the crash, officials decided to release vinyl chloride from five rail cars to prevent them from exploding, a controversial decision that spewed more chemicals into the air and yielded photos of an ominous-looking black plume looming over East Palestine.
The Transportation Department, while concerned with the conditions leading to the crash, did not have a central role in the response. The department did send experts to help the National Transportation Safety Board investigate, and the head of the Federal Railroad Administration, part of the Transportation Department, has also visited the scene.
Buttigieg has conceded that he should have spoken out sooner to convey his concern about the accident and the people in the area. “That’s a lesson learned for me,” he told CBS News.
While the Transportation Department is weighing new safety rules in the accident’s aftermath, it is the EPA that is the lead federal agency on the ground, monitoring toxins and overseeing the cleanup effort by Norfolk Southern, the company that operated the train. Still, Republicans have not gone after EPA Administrator Michael Regan or other federal officials in the same way they have targeted Buttigieg.
Some conservatives have tried making a broader argument – that Biden and his team do not care about East Palestine because it is a Republican, rural, largely White town. “Is it because these are not their voters?” Fox News host Tucker Carlson asked Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who agreed.
Others have taken it further, taking the opportunity to wrap Buttigieg’s sexual orientation into their criticism. Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s son, said late last month that Buttigieg got his job solely because Democrats wanted to give a role to “the gay guy.” Long before the derailment, some Republicans mocked Buttigieg’s decision to take paternity leave after his twins were born and to bring his husband, Chasten, with him on a military jet.
That has led to allegations that the post-derailment criticism stems in part from homophobia.
“Whether it’s sickening attacks on his family or disrespecting a community’s pain with failed attempts at exploitation as a political prop, nothing saps credibility like following debunked smears with even more debunked smears,” deputy White House press secretary Andrew Bates said in a statement.
In East Palestine last month, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani cited Buttigieg’s paternity leave as he criticized him for purportedly taking too long to visit the town. Giuliani, a Trump ally, referred to his own experience leading New York at the time of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
“One of the main rules in investigating a murder is: Every day you miss is one more day inactive,” Giuliani said in an interview. “It’s quite obvious that this mayor, who accomplished nothing as the mayor of a tiny town not much bigger than a New York City apartment building, seems to have no expertise.” Buttigieg was mayor of South Bend, Ind., when he launched his presidential bid in 2019.
Buttigieg has hit back directly against many of the attacks, an unusual approach for top officials, who often seek to remain above the fray. He has coupled that with invitations to his critics to help craft new rail safety guidelines, arguing that Republicans are at fault for blocking previous safety rules related to railways and chemical spills.
He accused Rubio of sending out a letter two years ago that was drafted by railway lobbyists. The senator responded that Buttigieg was “m.i.a. on the derailment” and was lying about the letter.
Buttigieg retorted: “The facts don’t lie. The 2021 letter you signed was obviously drafted by railroad industry lobbyists. It supports waivers that would reduce visual track inspections. Now: will you vote to help us toughen rail safety accountability and fines, or not?”
After McConnell’s floor speech accusing Buttigieg of pursuing “woke initiatives” and “climate nonsense,” Buttigieg cited a bridge in Kentucky that had benefited from the bipartisan infrastructure law, which the Transportation Department is helping implement.
“Respectfully, the Brent Spence Bridge we’re funding in Kentucky is hardly a ‘woke initiative.’ Fighting climate change isn’t ‘nonsense,'” Buttigieg tweeted. “And Leader McConnell could be enormously helpful by joining us in standing up to the railroad industry lobby to make hazardous trains safer.”
Republicans on the House Oversight Committee, meanwhile, said they were opening an investigation of the derailment and sent a letter seeking records from Buttigieg. “You ignored the catastrophe for over a week,” the letter said, accusing Transportation Department leadership of “apathy in the face of this emergency.”
Rep. Jamie B. Raskin (D-Md.) and other Democrats fired back that the letter “failed to ask a single legitimate question” about the cause of the derailment.
“If Committee Republicans are serious about uncovering the truth, it must do so by conducting thorough, fact-based oversight, which includes seeking answers from Norfolk Southern about its potentially harmful policies and ongoing efforts to influence federal railroad safety measures,” they wrote.
Biden administration officials note that the United States experiences about 1,000 derailments a year. They say they responded almost instantly to this one.
EPA personnel arrived at the crash site in the middle of the night on Feb. 4, a few hours after the train derailed, and began monitoring the air and water. The next morning, the NTSB, an independent agency, announced its investigation and was set to meet with local officials; the agency held two news briefings in East Palestine in the first three days of the crisis.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, has praised the administration’s response, telling reporters on Feb. 14 that Biden had offered federal help but that he had not taken the president up on it because the situation was under control.
As media attention on the derailment exploded that week, DeWine moved to secure more aid, and the administration sent teams from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Health and Human Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
In the past, transportation secretaries have sometimes visited disaster scenes, most often after incidents involving fatalities. In those cases, they have often waited several days to avoid causing a distraction and impeding the on-the-ground response.
Federico Peña, transportation secretary under President Bill Clinton, said he went to several accident scenes, adding that seeing the trauma firsthand enabled him to better push for improved safety measures.
Both Peña and LaHood also used disasters as springboards for efforts to overhaul transportation safety regulations, a playbook Buttigieg now seems to be using. Some Republicans, despite their criticism of his performance, have signaled a willingness to take part in such a push.
On Wednesday, Vance and Rubio sponsored bipartisan legislation that would advance many of the rail safety initiatives supported by the Transportation Department.
The Washington Post’s Meryl Kornfield contributed to this report.
A sunken boat reemerges in September 2022 in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Nevada, after unprecedented drought. (David McNew/Getty Images)
Much of the Northern Hemisphere is struggling with drought or the threat of drought, as Europe experiences an unusually warm, precipitation-free winter and swaths of the American West remain mired in an epic megadrought.
But it’s not just those pockets feeling the pain in the U.S. Most of the Western United States is in some form of drought, with areas of extreme drought concentrated in the Great Plains and Texas. A 23-year megadrought has left the Southwest at the driest it is estimated to have ever been in 1,200 years, based on tree-ring data.
That’s very bad news for Texas cotton farmers. The New York Times recently reported that “2022 was a disaster for upland cotton in Texas,” leading to short supplies and high prices of tampons and cloth diapers, among other products. “In the biggest loss on record, Texas farmers abandoned 74 percent of their planted crops — nearly six million acres — because of heat and parched soil, hallmarks of a megadrought made worse by climate change,” the Times noted.
Even recent heavy storms in California haven’t brought the state out of drought, because the precipitation deficit is so big.
A car drives through a flooded road in Gilroy, Calif., in January. (Michael Ho Wai Lee/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
“I want to be clear that these storms — and the likely rain and snow we may get over the next few weeks — did not, nor will they fully, end the drought, at least not yet,” Yana Garcia, secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency, said last Wednesday. “We’re in better shape than we were two months ago, but we’re not out of the woods.”
Just days earlier, Lake Powell, the second-largest U.S. reservoir, dropped to a new record low. Powell is created by a Colorado River dam along the Arizona-Utah border, and if the reservoir goes much lower, experts warn, water won’t be able to pass through it. Millions of people who rely on the Colorado would then lose access to their water supply.
“If you can’t get water out of the dam, it means everyone downstream doesn’t get water,” Brad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University, told USA Today. “That includes agriculture, cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and Phoenix.” The hydroelectric power plant for which the dam was constructed would also cease to function.
When the current 23-year megadrought plaguing the American West began, Lake Powell and Lake Mead — the largest U.S. reservoir, also on the Colorado — were 95% full. Now, they’re one-quarter full, according to Udall.
Logs and driftwood on Sept. 8, 2022, near Hite, Utah, remain where they settled when Lake Powell was at its highest-ever water level. (David McNew/Getty Images)
In order to prevent what one California official calls “a doomsday scenario,” the Department of the Interior will have to impose reductions in water allotments for downriver users.
Scientists say that the underlying conditions — growing demand for water and naturally occurring periodic drought — are being exacerbated by climate change. Warmer temperatures cause more water to evaporate, making both droughts and heavy precipitation more extreme. Climate change makes droughts “more frequent, longer, and more severe,” according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
“It’s unfortunate that the largely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases,” Flavio Lehner, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University, said. “That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.”
In Europe, an unusually warm, dry winter has forced ski resorts in the Alps to close for lack of snow, and left the canals of Venice running dry in Italy. Some of the city’s iconic gondolas are stuck in the mud. Europe experienced its third-warmest January on record, France has seen a record dry spell of 31 days without rain, and the Alps have received less than half their normal snowfall so far this winter.
Last Wednesday, Britain’s National Drought Group warned that one hot, dry spell would return England to the severe drought conditions it endured last summer.
Low water levels at Baitings Reservoir on Aug. 12, 2022, reveal an ancient packhorse bridge amid a heatwave in the U.K. at Ripponden, West Yorkshire. (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
The threat goes beyond tourism: A study published last month by researchers from Graz University of Technology in Austria warned that Europe’s drinking water supply has become “very precarious.” Much of Europe has been in a drought since 2018, and a review of satellite data of groundwater confirmed acute shortages in parts of France, Italy and Germany.
“A few years ago, I would never have imagined that water would be a problem here in Europe,” Torsten Mayer-Gürr, one of the researchers, said.
This development follows a summer of record-breaking heat waves and droughts that left thousands dead across the continent, as well as the worst wildfire season on record. Europe’s hot, dry summer coincided with acute droughts in the U.S. — even in normally wet regions like the Northeast — and in Asia. The dropping water levels revealed buried artifacts, including the wreckage of a German World War II warship in Serbia, dead bodies in Lake Mead and ancient Buddhist statues in China’s Yangtze River.
Last summer’s drought across the Northern Hemisphere was made 20 times more likely by climate change, according to an October 2022 study by World Weather Attribution, a group of international scientists who explore the link between global warming and the increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events it causes.
An emaciated cow stands at the bottom of a water pan that has been dried up for 4 months, in Iresteno, a town bordering Ethiopia, on Sept. 1, 2022. (Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images)
The worst impacts of ongoing drought are being felt in the Horn of Africa, where millions of residents in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are contending with food insecurity due to poor harvests. The region faces a forecast of a sixth consecutive low rainy season this spring.
Meanwhile, it’s summer in the Southern Hemisphere, and crop yields are being diminished by drought there as well. Argentina is a leading exporter of soy and corn, but its production is being drastically reduced this year as extremely high temperatures exacerbate a drought.
Climate scientists say that adaptation to climate change-related droughts is essential, including reducing water usage and building new infrastructure, like aquifers, to better manage water resources.
As climate change alters Michigan forests, some work to see if and how the woods can adapt
Keith Matheny, Detroit Free Press – February 27, 2023
It’s as integral a part of Michigan’s fabric as its lakes and rivers: more than 20 million acres of forest land − the hickory and oak trees of southern Michigan giving way to forests of sugar maple, birch and evergreens that surround northbound travelers.
But a warming climate is harming and transforming the woods, with further, even more dramatic impacts projected by near the end of the century.
Michigan has perhaps the most exceptional forest makeup in North America, as boundaries of multiple forest types converge here: The vast boreal forest, its cold-hardy conifer trees stretching far into Canada, dips into the Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan. A diverse mixed zone then gives way to the great Eastern Broadleaf Forest across the central and southern Lower Peninsula, dominated by beech, maple, oak and hickory trees. Even the grassland prairies of the Plains states extend into far southwest Michigan.
It’s the changes happening first at these border zones that give Michigan a front-row seat to climate change impacts on the forest the rest of the 21st century.
Climate change carries a host of stresses for the woods. Milder winters are leading to earlier, longer growing seasons, often better news for invasive, undesirable shrubs and weeds than for desired tree species. Less-frigid winters also improve invasive insects’ survival, fueling a northward migration of problems such as emerald ash borer, hemlock wooly adelgid and beech bark disease, which is caused by an interaction between an insect and fungus. And the hotter, drier conditions many scientists predict in coming decades will leave the tree species dominating the far north struggling to adapt.
“We expect to see species range shifts − species at the southern edge of their ranges, those boreal-associated species like black spruce, quaking aspen and white birch, may lose suitable habitat in the state,” said Ryan Toot, a watershed forestry specialist with the U.S. Forest Service based in St. Paul, Minnesota.
That’s messing with one of Michigan’s most golden of gooses. The forest products industry provides 96,000 jobs and contributes $20 billion annually to Michigan’s economy, according to the Michigan Department of Natural Resources. The north woods are a vital part of hunting, fishing and other tourism that brings in more than $20 billion more.
A view of Lake Michigan at the Clay Cliffs Natural Area in Leland on Wednesday, Aug. 24, 2022. (Photo: Junfu Han, Detroit Free Press)
University of Michigan forestry ecologist Peter Reich this month published the findings of a five-year study exposing seedling trees of the boreal and mixed hardwoods forest in northeastern Minnesota to increased temperatures and decreased summer rainfall — mimicking the projected warming and conditions under two different scenarios, one where considerable effort is made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change; another with more business-as-usual emissions. They found even the more modest emissions scenarios had a devastating effect on the young trees.
“The prognosis for the forest is not great,” said Reich, director of the University of Michigan’s Institute for Global Change Biology.
“It may be we are at a tipping point beyond which these northern species just can’t hack it. Nature is really resilient, but we are pushing it really far, maybe up to its boundaries.”
Reich has been experimenting in the boreal forest in northeastern Minnesota for 14 years, trying to better understand how oncoming climate change is going to influence the forest in the transition zone where colder and more temperate tree species converge.
“We see that many of these spruce and fir forests are doing poorly,” he said. “But temperature is changing, precipitation is changing, fire regimes are changing. There are more insects, we’ve changed management, there is rising CO2, there is changing ozone pollution — it’s hard to know which one of those is driving the change when you just observe forests.”
So Reich and his research team set out to control particular variables. They installed heat lamps and underground warming cables in outdoor plots, exposing nine species of seedlings to increased temperatures over the ambient weather: boreal species, including white spruce, balsam fir, jack pine and paper birch; and more temperate species, including white pine, red oak, burr oak, sugar maple and red maple.
Two levels of potential 21st-century climate warming were used: roughly 1.6 degrees Celsius (about 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) and roughly 3.1 C (about 5.6 F) above ambient temperatures.
“Unfortunately, you’re going to get to either one (of those temperature increases) in any scenario that’s realistic,” Reich said.
“You can think of it as what we are going to get to in 40 or 50 years if we slow down climate change, versus if we don’t.”
On some seedling plots, the researchers also captured some of the summer rains, preventing the water from reaching the young trees’ roots, to simulate drier conditions that could be coming with later-century warming. Control plots were also planted, allowing seedlings of the same tree species to experience natural conditions.
The findings surprised Reich and his team. Even the more modest levels of warming had a big impact.
“Even the spruce and fir, which are the most boreal of the species, we thought they would do a little bit more poorly with 1.5 degrees Celsius warming — maybe 5% or 10% slower growth and 5% or 10% more mortality,” he said. “But fir in particular had 30% to 40% poorer growth and survival. Quite a dramatic change with what’s not really a very big temperature change.”
While more southerly tree species might one day expand their ranges northward to exploit where boreal species are failing, that’s not likely to be an orderly transition.
“What’s going to fill the gap are shrubs — either native shrubs or invasive shrubs, the buckthorns and honeysuckles of the world, expanding north,” Reich said.
“You might end up with a forest zone that for the next 50, 100, 150 years is kind of trashy — is neither economically nor ecologically what we want.
“You’re not going to get any two-by-fours out of buckthorn.”
The ‘climate change help desk’ for foresters
The U.S. Forest Service has been thinking about climate change’s impacts on the woods longer than most. It founded the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science in 2009, a collaborative effort among the service, universities, conservation organizations, the forest industry and landowners to develop adaptation strategies for the changing landscape.
“NIACS is like the climate change help desk, or a climate change phone-a-friend service, for land managers of all kinds, all across the Midwest and Northeast,” said Stephen Handler, a climate change specialist for NIACS based at the Forest Service’s Northern Research Station in Houghton.
“When we started at NIACS with this interest of educating people about climate change impacts and thinking about how to adapt, we were in front of a lot of critical audiences. And now, more often, it’s more like folks are drawing us in. Saying ‘We are ready to talk about this. We recognize things are shifting and we need to be agile and keep up with the change.’ “
The group provides the best, most recent available science to whoever asks: the timber industry, state natural resources agencies, parks managers, private landowners. It includes regional evaluations of which tree species are expected to adapt poorly to climate change, which are expected to do better and perhaps expand their ranges, and those in the middle. Through checklists, interested parties can conduct their own vulnerability assessments.
“They are making the choices for themselves, which we think is the appropriate way to go,” he said. “Because every land manager is going to have a different appetite for risk and a different set of values.”
Family and small private landowners account for about 54% of forest land ownership in Michigan. How climate change’s impacts on the woods are responded to is largely in the hands of individuals, families, companies and communities.
“You’re going to have a pretty diverse set of choices being made across the landscape − preservation in some areas, encouraging change in other areas, a lot of places in the middle,” Handler said. “That could be a strength.”
Is assisted migration part of the answer?
A great debate among those who care about the climate-changed forest is how much attention and effort should be spent on trying to maintain what exists in an area now and how much should be devoted to preparation for what may better fit future conditions.
NIACS climate adaptation specialist Madeline Baroli, founder of the Assisted Tree Range Expansion Project, pauses during planting in northwest Lower Michigan in the spring of 2020.
Madeline Baroli has her boots on the ground and her hands dirty, conducting a big experiment across northwest Lower Michigan to help clarify the answer. Baroli, a NIACS climate adaptation specialist, also founded the Assisted Tree Range Expansion Project, a community science experiment that started in 2020 from her postgraduate work with the Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Benzie county conservation districts.
“Really, it’s all about supporting the resilience of our forests by planting and monitoring certain select tree species that are projected to have future suitable habitat in this region,” she said.
The nuances can get controversial. In some parts of the country, transplants introducing new tree types generated backlash. Others are experimenting with the concept of assisted population migration — taking existing tree species in northern Michigan, such as white pine, but introducing the genetics of trees of that species grown in, say, Ohio or Kentucky, trees more adapted to a warmer climate.
Baroli’s focus, instead, is on what scientists call assisted range expansion, taking trees already in Michigan but whose range stops only partway up the Lower Peninsula, and planting them farther north.
“So we’re really just expanding that bubble, that range a little farther, to match what the projections from the U.S. Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas have modeled,” she said.
The six trees selected for the initial plantings were selected using those models and through conversations with local professional foresters and other natural resources professionals, she said. The first trees chosen for the project were shagbark hickory, tulip trees, sassafras, black tupelo, hackberry and swamp white oak.
Baroli noted that the trees already have some presence Up North, and would potentially be more established there were it not for the fragmentation of their range by highways and agriculture in the southern and mid-Lower Peninsula.
“That’s where I feel we really sort of owe it to the forest to lend a helping hand − because we’ve also altered the landscape in such a way that it limits natural range expansion,” she said.
The first plantings were in the spring of 2020 − just as COVID-19 began to disrupt life.
“We were doing our tree sale, selling the seedlings and trying to get the word out there,” she said. “Luckily, everybody was migrating online, and looking for socially distant things to do. So we really had a pretty successful first two seasons.”
Over 2020 and 2021, more than 2,000 trees were planted by individuals, community groups and families. Baroli did not yet have figures for plantings from this spring.
People are asked to report over time how the trees’ growth progresses.
“What I hope, what’s really important, is just keeping forests as forests,” Baroli said. “At the end of the day, we aren’t really in control of exactly what a forest is going to look like or be − we can’t be. The idea is to reduce that fragmentation … ensure the forests themselves have a chance to adapt, on their own with our help.”
Deer, disease amplifying tree threats
Visitors to the Leelanau Conservancy’s Palmer Woods, a natural area of more than 1,000 acres, have seen something different in recent years: Young trees with protective tubes around their trunks and a large, 35-acre portion of the preserve surrounded by a large wire fence.
It’s all efforts to curb what’s one of the biggest killers of young trees in the region: deer munching on them.
“A lot of the seedlings don’t really have the chance to get to the adult stage,” said Becky Hill, director of natural areas and preserves for the conservancy. “In some of the forests where we have heavy (deer) browsing, you see a lot of adult trees and a lot of seedlings, but not a lot of in-between trees.”
Becky Hill, Leelanau Conservancy’s Director of Natural Areas and Preserves checks on the growth of a sassafras tree in a protective tube at the Whaleback Natural Area in Leland on Wednesday, August 24, 2022. The Conservancy planted around 200 trees this past spring.
It’s a problem expected to worsen as the region further warms. Milder winters will allow more deer to survive, breed and then feed on the young trees.
“Foresters have a really keen eye on how that next generation of trees is coming in,” Baroli said. “Young trees are more sensitive to things than older trees. First off, the deer love them; they are great deer food. And we have a huge deer population.
“If they are eating those young trees, those young trees aren’t growing up into a future forest. And then if you just have older trees dying off, it’s a problem.”
Beech trees might be nearly doomed
Another pest devastating trees in the region is beech bark disease. A tiny insect called a scale wounds the tree by piercing its bark with sharp mouth parts and sucking out sap. A type of fungus can then enter and infect the tree, weakening it over years until mature trees, almost hollowed out, snap dead.
Milder winters predicted in future warming scenarios will allow more of the insects to survive and infect trees.
“It’s pretty much devasted the population of beech; we are expecting 99% (beech tree) die-off,” Baroli said.
A dead beech tree in the center at the Clay Cliffs Natural Area in Leland on Wednesday, August 24, 2022.White fuzzy scale insects on the trunk of a beech tree at the Clay Cliffs Natural Area in Leland on Wednesday, August 24, 2022.
Emerald ash borer is similarly killing millions of ash trees across Michigan.
The Leelanau Conservancy is using the unfortunate circumstance to adopt some of the NIACS’s recommended population migration trees prepared for a warmer climate.
“When we have a die-off where a lot of beech and ash have died, suddenly in our forest we might have a sunny opening,” Hill said. “There are certain species that really need more sunshine to get established − cherries, oaks, other types of species that thrive in those conditions. If we can help get them established, that succession of growth will happen over time.”
The conservancy also hopes to use new tree planting to combat the invasive autumn olive, a shrub “that just takes over fields to the point where you see these autumn olive forests,” she said.
“We’re hoping to get some species growing in there, to get established and maybe help shade out some of the invasive shrubs while creating good wildlife habitat.”
The changing climate is bringing ecological changes “so rapidly,” Hill said.
“It just feels like it’s harder,” she said. “You see the decline of bird species, insects, they are having a hard time keeping up with all of these drastic changes.”
The Michigan forest of 2100 − what will it look like?
Reich envisions a significantly transformed northern Michigan woods by century’s end.
“My hunch is by 2100, we’ll lose most of the spruce and fir,” he said. “We might lose some of the white cedar. The forests will be scrubbier and more open. They may still have a mix of species but will be less diverse … a few areas that are sandier and drier may even convert to grasslands.”
Those changes will have unpredictable impacts on animal habitat, the state’s timber industry and how people can use the forests for recreation.
And it may become a negative feedback loop, accelerating and worsening climate change. Forests take carbon out of the atmosphere and store it in soils and roots and their wood.
Leelanau Conservancy’s Palmer Woods Forest Reserve in Maple City on Wednesday, Aug. 24, 2022.
Peat forests, the wet fens prevalent in the Upper Peninsula, make up only 3% of the globe’s forest land but store 30% of soil carbon. A square meter of U.P. or Canadian peatland holds five times the carbon as a square meter of Amazon rainforest.
In a 2020 U.S. Forest Service study similar to Reich’s, peatlands were exposed to controlled, increased temperatures. The results showed the warming causes peatlands to release carbon faster than anticipated, converting them from carbon-storers to carbon-emitters.
“It could be a double-whammy; instead of helping slow climate change, they would be accelerating it,” Reich said.
Tree planting and assisted migration approaches can have some local benefits. But those are ultimately just Band-Aids, he said.
“In order to maintain the economic value of our forests, we do need to manage them to try to make them as resilient as possible in the face of these changes,” he said. “But there are real limits to how much we can do. There are vast forests out there — we don’t have the personnel or the money to try to thin all of the forests and replant them.
“We really need to work at the root cause of this problem, which is climate change.”
Extreme heat is a health crisis, Columbia experts say
Isabella O’Malley – February 27, 2023
Two firefighters watch for spot fires, Oct. 13, 2017, near Calistoga, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, file)Farmer Barry Evans examines the soil at a cotton crop he shredded and planted over with wheat, Oct. 3, 2022, in Kress, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, file)Fire crews work a wildfire on Sept. 1, 2022, near Dulzura, Calif. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull, file)
The record-breaking heat Earth endured during the summer of 2022 will be repeated without a robust international effort to address climate change, a panel of scientists warned Monday.
Heat-related deaths, wildfires, extreme rainfall, and persistent drought are expected to become increasingly severe as both ocean and atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, the experts said. Even if all greenhouse gas emissions ceased today, Earth will continue to warm for several decades.
The presentation, “Earth Series Virtual: Blazing Temperatures, Broken Records,” featured a multidisciplinary panel of scientific experts from Columbia University.
Radley Horton, a research professor at Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, stated that human-induced climate change has caused the global average atmospheric temperature to warm by about 2 degrees (1.1 degrees Celsius) in the last several decades.
“One of the key takeaways is that a little bit of change in global temperature has an enormous impact,” said Horton. Some of the main consequences include longer and more intense heat waves that are hitting increasingly larger areas.
Additionally, Horton said, certain climate models have underestimated just how extreme certain events can be, such as the European heat wave of 2022 and the Pacific Northwest heat wave of 2021.
“We are locked into a lot of additional climate hazards, there is no way around it,” said Horton.
Diana Hernandez, Associate Professor of Sociomedical Sciences at the Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, is researching how certain vulnerabilities, such as medical conditions or access to energy, could be affected by changing climate domestically and internationally. The expected impacts include shade inequalities, urban heat islands, and inequitable access to energy-powered medical devices.
“The climate is changing, and we are not adapted to be able to deal with it from a health perspective,” said Cecilia Sorensen, a physician and associate professor of Environmental Health Sciences at the Columbia University Medical Center.
Sorensen noted that she and colleagues referred to summer as “trauma season” early in her career, even before she focused on the health impacts of climate change. “We used to get inundated with patients … people coming in with heart attacks and asthma exacerbations.”
Despite the foreboding climate projections, the panelists expressed hope that considerable strides can be made to minimize future climate impacts related to extreme heat.
Hernandez said a community-focused approach, especially with an emphasis on engagement that is inclusive, will be successful in implementing a wide range of climate adaptation strategies.
Sorenson said one solution that can be implemented by hospitals is developing emergency room protocols to treat a large influx of patients suffering from heat stroke or related conditions during extreme weather. Improved communications are also needed to increase awareness about the medical risks of extreme heat and how impacts can be prevented, she said.
“Within the problem lies the solution,” said Sorensen.
Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Grass-powered gas to heat homes for the first time
Telegraph reporters – February 26, 2023
Green gas will be made from grass material using anaerobic digestion – Ecotricity
Grass-powered gas is set to heat thousands of homes for the first time in the coming weeks.
Green energy firm Ecotricity is expected to begin supplying 5,300 homes from its plant near Reading in April.
Research has estimated that the grass biogas can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 90 per cent.
It is hoped the scheme can be scaled up to supply fuel to more homes around the country.
The £11 million mill uses bacteria to break down grasses and herbs, which absorb carbon dioxide while growing, in an anaerobic digester.
This produces biogas which is then “scrubbed” to remove some carbon dioxide and upgraded to biomethane for use in the gas network.
An organic fertiliser, which is intended to help grow more grass, is also produced.
Hopes for expansion
Homes in Berkshire will be supplied through the distribution company Southern Gas Networks.
Ecotricity owner Dale Vince hopes to expand across the country, building mills which minimise the use of fossil fuels while avoiding damage to the environment, and boost energy security.
Mr Vince, 61, said: “We are ready to go and once the gas supply company’s measuring and checking equipment is in place we expect to start in April.”
Green gas has previously been made from food waste or “high energy” crops such as maize, but both face sustainability issues and problems with a lack of scale.
Maize, for example, is fertiliser-hungry, attracts birds that struggle to survive in it, and is harvested around autumn, leaving topsoil run-off.
“Our mix of grass with herbs and clovers makes carbon neutral gas, pulling carbon out of the atmosphere,” said Mr Vince. “It’s a cycle of carbon rather than a net emission.
“When you burn fossil fuel it’s carbon from millions of years ago that gets released into the atmosphere.
“We’re buying the grass from farmers. Instead of them using it to grow for animals, they’re selling it to us.
“It’s better for farmers, they get a better price and more security because animal agriculture is a super marginal business. It only exists with massive subsidies.”
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90pc
On average, the amount of grass being used initially could be cultivated every year from around 3,000 acres to provide over 48 million kWh of gas, while saving nearly 12,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions – but the ultimate goal is to expand on a national scale.
A report by Imperial College Consultants estimated the UK has 6.46 million hectares of suitable grassland not involved in food production, enough for 5,400 green gas mills to provide up to 236.5TWh – sufficient to heat 98.8 per cent of British homes if made energy efficient.
The research estimated that gas made from grass can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 90 per cent when compared to the current use of North Sea gas and synthetic fertilisers.
The report also said the Government’s national air source heat pump roll-out – its alternative plan for heating homes without carbon emissions – would cost six times as much as a green gas roll out and would not be possible in 20 per cent of British homes.
Asked about Ecotricity’s biomethane project, a Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesman said: “Initiatives like this show how the UK is leading in the development of innovations in green technologies that can help increase our energy security, tackle climate change and bring down people’s bills.”
Southern Gas Networks said: “We’ve partnered with Ecotricity to deliver a biomethane to grid project at a site in Farley Hill near Reading. The project will supply 5,300 nearby properties with renewable green gas for heat and power, helping to reduce each household’s annual carbon emissions by an equivalent of 2.2 tonnes.
“Our role is to commission the gas entry unit infrastructure at the plant. This equipment will measure the flow of gas into our network and ensure it meets the required specification. Approximately 700m3 of biomethane-powered renewable energy will be injected into our local intermediate pressure network every hour.”
A National Gas Transmission spokesman: “Biomethane will play an important supporting role in the journey to Britain achieving net zero.”
In a California Town, Farmworkers Start From Scratch After Surprise Flood
Soumya Karlamangla and Viviana Hinojos – February 26, 2023
A teacher holds class on a playground at Planada Elementary School because classrooms in the building were flooded, in Planada, Calif. on Feb. 14, 2023. (Jim Wilson/The New York Times)
PLANADA, Calif. — Until the floodwaters came, until they rushed in and destroyed nearly everything, the little white house had been Cecilia Birrueta’s dream.
She and her husband bought the two-bedroom fixer-upper 13 years ago, their reward for decades of working minimum-wage jobs, first cleaning houses in Los Angeles and now milking cows and harvesting pistachios in California’s Central Valley.
The couple replaced the weathered wooden floors, installed a new stove and kitchen sink, and repainted the living room walls a warm burgundy. Here, they raised their three children, the oldest now at the University of California, Davis. They enjoyed tomatoes, peaches and figs from neighbors who worked on the nearby farms.
Birrueta and her husband felt content. Until last month. Until the floodwaters came.
A brutal set of atmospheric rivers in California unleashed a disaster in Planada, an agricultural community of 4,000 residents in the flatlands about an hour west of Yosemite National Park. During one storm in early January, a creek just outside of town burst through old farm levees and sent muddy water gushing into the streets.
For several days, the entire town looked like a lagoon. Weeks after record-breaking storms wreaked havoc across California and killed at least 21 people, some of the hardest-hit communities are still struggling to recover.
The flood ruined the two cars owned by Birrueta and her family and destroyed most of their clothes. The walls with the burgundy paint that she had carefully picked out had rotted through. Their house may need to be demolished.
Birrueta, her husband and their 14-year-old son and 10-year-old daughter had to move into a camp that typically houses migrant farmworkers, who arrive each spring with few belongings and the hope of building a life like the Birruetas had. There, 41 families from Planada are staying in long beige cabins and relying on space heaters for warmth because the camps lack furnaces.
“We came as immigrants, we started with nothing,” said Birrueta, 40, who was born in Mexico. “We bought a place of our own that we thought would be safe for our kids, and then we lost it. We lost everything.”
Nine miles east of Merced in California’s agricultural heartland, Planada’s wide streets are dotted with bungalows and lead to a central park shaded by towering spruce and elm trees. Less than 2 square miles, Planada was created in 1911 to be an idyllic, planned farming community — its name means “plain” in Spanish, a nod to its fertile, low-lying lands — but was eventually abandoned by its Los Angeles developers.
The quiet town, surrounded by almond orchards and cornfields, has since become a desirable place for farmworkers to settle with their families. When California farmworkers marched through Planada last summer on their way to the state Capitol in Sacramento, hundreds of children lined the streets to cheer them on.
The recent floods dealt a painful blow to a community in which more than one-third of households are impoverished. Planada is more than 90% Latino and overwhelmingly Spanish-speaking. Roughly one-fourth of the residents are estimated to be immigrants living in the country illegally, making them ineligible for some forms of disaster relief.
Agricultural workers in California are often on the front lines of catastrophes. They worked during the early, uncertain days of the COVID-19 pandemic, have endured record heat waves and toiled in the smoke-choked air that gets trapped in the Central Valley during wildfires.
During the recent floods, tens of thousands of farmworkers most likely lost wages because of water damage to California’s crops, compounding their already precarious financial situations, said Antonio De Loera-Brust, a spokesperson for the United Farm Workers of America.
“The very workers who put food on our table are getting hot meals from the Salvation Army,” said De Loera-Brust. “Whether California is on fire or underwater, the farmworkers are always losing.”
On a recent morning in Planada, huge piles of furniture were stacked more than 6 feet high along the curb, as if standing guard in front of each home. Once cherished possessions had become trash: A child’s tricycle. A green velvet armchair. An engraved wooden crib.
When Birrueta returned to her home after evacuating Jan. 9, it had a sour smell inside, she said. A floral rug in her daughter’s room that had once been white and blue appeared black after being caked in mud. The girl rushed to grab her soaked toys, some of them recent Christmas gifts. Birrueta had to wrest them from her hands. They threw away her pink wooden dollhouse, a Build-a-Bear she called Rambo, her beloved collection of Dr. Seuss books.
“I don’t really know how to talk to my kids about it,” Birrueta said, choking up.
Birrueta applied for relief from the Federal Emergency Management Agency but has yet to hear back. Although Planada is in a flood zone, most homeowners said they couldn’t afford to pay thousands of dollars for flood insurance. Besides, they said, so many years of severe heat and drought made wildfires seem a much greater concern than a deluge.
Maria Figueroa, a FEMA spokesperson, said the agency would provide, at most, $41,000 per flooded household. The funds are intended to jump-start recovery, not cover a full rebuild. “We’re not an insurance agency,” she said.
In 1910, Los Angeles real estate developer J. Harvey McCarthy decided Planada would be his “city beautiful,” a model community and an automobile stop along the road to Yosemite. “The town will be laid out similar to Paris,” The San Luis Obispo Daily Telegram reported at the time.
An infusion of money brought Planada a bank, hotel, school, church and its own newspaper, the Planada Enterprise, by the next year. But McCarthy eventually abandoned the community when he ran out of funds, leaving its settlers to pick up the pieces.
One thing wasn’t mentioned in advertisements for Planada: the floods. On Feb. 3, 1911, The Merced County Sun reported that during a 48-hour downpour, a creek overflowed its banks and that Planada was “under water.”
More than a century later, Maria Soto, 73, was sleeping when her grandson, who lives in the house behind hers, banged on her door around 2 a.m. A family member was driving a pickup truck through Planada to rescue their relatives, dozens of whom lived there.
Soto clambered onto the truck bed, and her feet dangled in the rising waters as they fled. When the engine stalled momentarily, she was frightened but didn’t tell anyone else that she didn’t know how to swim.
At her low-slung, peach-colored home, with an overgrown avocado tree out front and wind chimes hanging from the eaves, water breached the roof and poured down the walls.
Black patches of mold have begun to spread inside, so she is living at her daughter’s house next door while trying to scrape together money on her fixed income for the repairs.
“This is where I raised my children, and it’s always been dry,” said Soto, who in the late 1970s moved to Planada with her husband, who picked lettuce. “We weren’t prepared. No one was prepared.”
Disasters only exacerbate the health dangers that farmworkers face. Mold in flooded homes, for example, can prompt symptoms of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which are more common in low-income communities. Farmworkers often battle pesticide exposure and, even in good times, can only afford substandard housing.
“A small community like Planada, that has so many low-wage workers, you can only imagine the extent to which these problems were already existing,” said Edward Flores, an associate professor of sociology at University of California Merced and who co-wrote a new study revealing California farmworkers’ poor living conditions.
The flood’s impacts extend beyond inundated homes. Planada Elementary School lost 4,000 books as well as student desks, beanbag chairs and rugs. Hundreds of students had to be relocated to a nearby middle school.
“We were doing a really good job recovering from COVID,” said José L. González, superintendent of the Planada Elementary School District. “This just feels like we’re cut off at the knees again.”
Another major storm arrived this past week in California, bringing rain and snow, but Planada residents have been spared from further disaster.
Birrueta used to tuck sentimental items into suitcases that she stored in her son’s closet. Old photographs of relatives in Mexico, including of her father, who recently died. Socks she crocheted for her children when they were newborns. Pictures of her oldest daughter’s birthday celebrations, from an era before iPhones.
The floodwaters drenched those suitcases and everything inside. Still, Birrueta said she was grateful because her family safely escaped the floods and that they have a roof over their heads, albeit temporarily. Families can stay in the migrant camps until March 15, after which the county may provide other lodging.
Birrueta and her husband plan to rebuild their home in Planada.
“We started with nothing,” she said. “So in a way, we know how to start over again.”
Rail Industry Pushes Sensors Over Brakes After Ohio Train Crash
Thomas Black – February 26, 2023
(Bloomberg) — The train derailment that spilled toxic chemicals into a small Ohio town has revived a long-running debate about railroad safety — and some industry players think they have just the thing to resolve it.
The Feb. 3 crash of the Norfolk Southern Corp. train in East Palestine, Ohio, has renewed a push for railroads to adopt electronic brakes that could help prevent a malfunctioning train from endangering people and property. Electronically controlled pneumatic, or ECP, brakes have been touted for their capacity to bring trains to a halt in shorter distances and prevent dangerous pileups.
The Biden administration has blamed industry stonewalling for blocking regulations that would have mandated use of the systems on some trains — even though it isn’t clear that ECP brakes would’ve done much to mitigate an accident similar to the one in Ohio, and the proposed rules wouldn’t have applied to the train that crashed.
The railroad industry has found itself in a tight spot as the political furor around the accident grows, with former President Donald Trump turning up in East Palestine, and the derailment becoming a talking point on cable news and Capitol Hill. The episode has aggravated fears about the safety of sending chemicals and other hazardous materials over the rails, and raised the specter of new regulation at a time when railroads are coping with restive workers and annoyed customers.
Installing ECP brakes that the Biden administration and safety advocates favor would be expensive and cumbersome for a business beset by complaints about delays and lackluster service. The brakes need to be installed on each car to work properly — a daunting prospect for an industry with some 1.5 million cars on the tracks and little idle capacity.
A coalition that includes railcar makers, shippers and two large railroads say they have a different idea. They want to place sensors on railcars that could flag faulty equipment immediately to a train’s crew and others monitoring remotely. The system is being tested on 400 railcars and could be available commercially by the end of this year, according to the group, which calls itself RailPulse.
Such sensors could potentially catch problems like the overheated wheel bearing that likely caused the East Palestine wreck. Electronically controlled brakes, on the other hand, may not have even done much to mitigate the derailment if they were installed, based on a 2017 study by the National Academy of Sciences.
Notably, a sensor apparatus also would likely be much less expensive for the industry to put into place. RailPulse says its system would cost about $400 to $900 per railcar.
Smart Railcars
The use of remote sensing technology on the railroads isn’t entirely new. Currently, sensors known as wayside heat detectors placed along the tracks screen train cars for defects — and they sniffed out the trouble in Ohio. Wayside detectors were voluntarily adopted by railroads to reduce accidents; Norfolk Southern said it has nearly 1,000 of them.
According to a preliminary report by the National Safety Transportation Board, Norfolk Southern’s wayside detectors in Ohio were working, but caught the overheated wheel too late. The NTSB found that a wayside detector about 20 miles before the crash site measured the wheel bearing at 103 degrees Fahrenheit above ambient temperature — hot, but below a level that calls for the crew to stop and take a look.
However, the next detector, just ahead of the crash site, recorded a wheel temperature at 253 degrees above, a critical level. The sensor sounded an alarm, but it was too late. The wheel failed and caused 38 of the train’s 149 railcars to careen off the rails.
Sensors mounted directly on railcars could diagnose the issue sooner and buy critical time, backers say. Railcars will likely have multiple sensors in the near future that can detect anything from open doors to signs that equipment is in danger of failing, said David Shannon, general manager of RailPulse.
“Our objective is to make railcars smart,” Shannon said.
The group’s pilot program, which is testing five types of sensors, will be on 1,000 railcars by this summer, he said, and should be ready for real-world use by the end of this year. RailPulse plans to provide a subscription service to transmit the data to the cloud, and is counting on manufacturers to design the sensors the industry needs.
ECP Debate
Norfolk Southern was on the forefront of testing ECP brakes before the US Department of Transportation decided to require them on high hazard flammable trains in 2015. The company opposed the mandate because of cost, the brakes’ reliability and the inability to mix locomotives and railcars that didn’t have the system.
One of the biggest drawbacks of ECP brakes is that all the railcars on a train must have them or the system doesn’t work, making it impossible to phase in gradually. The rule followed a spate of derailments by trains shuttling crude oil from fracking hotspots where there were no pipelines to refineries.
As part of an infrastructure bill in 2015, Congress required the transportation department to justify the need for ECP braking. The National Academy of Sciences was ordered to examine computer modeling the department used to support its position that they had a significant safety advantage over conventional brakes.
After tests at a Norfolk Southern rail yard in Conway, Pennsylvania, and the New York Air Brake Facility in Watertown, New York, the academy said in a 2017 report that the department’s efforts to validate its modeling “do not instill sufficient confidence in DOT’s comparison of the estimated emergency performance of ECP braking systems” with other systems. That paved the way for the Trump administration to rescind the mandate.
In a Feb. 19 letter to Norfolk Southern Chief Executive Officer Alan Shaw, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg faulted the industry for opposing ECP brakes. “Rather than support these efforts to improve rail safety, Norfolk Southern and other rail companies spend millions of dollars in the courts and lobbying members of Congress to oppose common-sense safety regulation,” Buttigieg wrote.
However, others in the federal government have pushed back on the idea that the ECP mandate would have prevented the Ohio crash.
“Some are saying the ECP (electronically controlled pneumatic) brake rule, if implemented, would’ve prevented this derailment. FALSE,” NTSB Chairman Jennifer Homendy said in a Feb. 16 tweet. She went on to explain why the Norfolk Southern train wasn’t designated as high hazard flammable. “This means even if the rule had gone into effect, this train wouldn’t have had ECP brakes.”
Uphill Battle
The prospect that regulators would swiftly put the electronic-braking rules in place following the Ohio crash is remote. To reinstate the mandate would be an uphill battle, a senior White House official acknowledged during a Feb. 17 briefing. The rulemaking process takes years and it would be difficult to pull off after Congress weighed in against the technology.
Similarly, persuading the entire railroad industry to go along with RailPulse’s sensors could be a tall order.
Workers are wary of new safety technologies that the industry touts, especially if they are aimed at replacing human inspections, said Mark Wallace, vice president of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen. For the past five years, the railroads’ first priority has been profit, not safety, Wallace said. Operating profit margin for North American railroads increased to 39% last year from 34% in 2017.
“If you’re going to implement the technology, then you have to maintain the technology and you have to have somebody in place to make sure that it’s working properly,” he said.
Additionally, railcars are mostly owned by shippers and by leasing companies. Shippers are pushing to be able to track their freight cars just as they can for trailers on trucks, the railroads’ main competitor for freight. Some large railroads, including CSX Corp. and BNSF Railway, aren’t part of the coalition.
In Town Where Train Derailed, Lawyers Are Signing Up Clients in Droves
Campbell Robertson – February 25, 2023
A welcome sign on the outskirts of East Palestine, Ohio on Feb. 23, 2023. (Maddie McGarvey/The New York Times)
EAST PALESTINE, Ohio — In the three weeks since a freight train derailed in East Palestine and released more than 100,000 gallons of toxic chemicals, lawyers have poured into the little town, signing up clients, gathering evidence and already filing more than a dozen lawsuits in federal court on behalf of local residents.
They have held information sessions nearly everywhere a crowd can gather, including at a nearby Best Western, at the American Legion hall and in the packed cafeteria at East Palestine High School. Their message overall has been one of warning: It may be months, years or possibly even decades before the derailment’s ultimate effect on people’s health, property values or the soil and water becomes clear.
Further, the lawyers say, early moves by Norfolk Southern, the operator of the train, suggest that getting comprehensive answers from the company will not be easy.
Among a public that is deeply skeptical of official test results — Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, and other state and federal officials say they have not shown anything alarming so far — or camera-friendly efforts at reassurance, these warnings have resonated.
The distrust has been deepened by a sense that politicians are not being diligent enough in their response to the disaster; on Friday, President Joe Biden said that he had no plans to visit, although he pointed out that federal officials had arrived there within hours of the crash, and that he was “keeping very close tabs on” the situation.
“They get what’s happening,” Rene Rocha, a lawyer with supersize personal injury firm Morgan & Morgan, said during a state hearing about the derailment Thursday in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, just across the border from East Palestine.
Referring to residents there who had spoken at the hearing about headaches, coughs and other classic symptoms of chemical exposure, he added: “They see they’re not getting the truth from the politicians and the company. That leaves the lawyers.”
Norfolk Southern declined to comment Friday on matters involving litigation.
The huge scale of the chemical burn-off and the harrowing images of the fire, as well as the intense politicization of it all, have made the derailment in East Palestine among the most high-profile environmental disasters in the country in years.
Television cameras are still routine fixtures on the sidewalks of the town’s central street. On Friday night, Erin Brockovich, the famed environmental activist who years ago exposed corporate wrongdoing that polluted drinking water, spoke to a packed town hall at the East Palestine High School auditorium.
The event, billed as an “educational seminar” and organized by a law firm based out of Akron, Ohio, consisted mostly of a detailed presentation by Mikal Watts, a prominent Texas lawyer, about the potential health effects of the derailment and the legal landscape that plaintiffs would be facing. But it began with a short speech from Brockovich to the hundreds sitting in the auditorium and watching an overflow screen in the gym.
“You’re going to be told it’s safe, you’re going to be told not to worry: Well that’s just rubbish,” she said. Of the derailment in East Palestine, she said, “I’ve never seen anything in 30 years like this.”
To some local attorneys, the army that has descended on the town is exasperating. “Did they even know where East Palestine was prior to this accident?” fumed David Betras, a lawyer who has spent his career just up the road in Youngstown, Ohio, and is planning to file a suit on behalf of hundreds of local residents. “They come in with this star power. Like, ‘Oh, Erin’s gonna solve it.’”
On Thursday night, Steve and Kelly Davis sat down in a yet-to-be-opened wine bar a short walk from where the train cars left the tracks nearly three weeks earlier. Thousands of their bees had been found dead after the burn-off, thousands of dollars’ worth of boxes that had housed the bees were now in questionable condition and the reputation of the family honey business was in jeopardy.
Their son, on the verge of buying a house downtown, was suddenly getting a cold shoulder from the bank. No one had come to test their well water. And to top it all off, Steve Davis had developed a cough.
They had come to meet with Robert Till, a Texas-based investigator for the law firm of Cory Watson who for weeks has been meeting people at a table set up in the empty bar. Till has met with hundreds so far, he said, talking with people about their health conditions, learning how their businesses have been affected and asking whether they have cleaned their homes — and if they have held onto the cleaning materials, which he said would contain critical data about contamination.
“I’m putting you guys on for priority testing,” he told the Davises.
“For the water?” Steve Davis asked.
“For everything,” Till said.
The legal machinations are in their early stages. Cases might ultimately be consolidated as class-action or multidistrict litigation; most of the suits will almost surely end up bundled before one or several federal judges in an Ohio courtroom.
Norfolk Southern may offer some sort of resolution voluntarily, whether by setting up a compensation fund with an independent administrator, as BP did after the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, or establishing a court-supervised medical monitoring program, where people could come for free testing related to possible health effects.
The company has already been paying $1,000 in “inconvenience compensation” to people who had to evacuate. Although Norfolk Southern insists that the payments do not curtail anyone’s right to sue, many are skeptical.
Lawyers point to certain moves made by the company — including a letter sent Thursday notifying plaintiffs’ attorneys that they had two days to inspect the rail cars before the cars were removed or destroyed — as signs that it would be combative.
There is no shortage of experience among the members of the plaintiff’s bar arriving in town: Train derailments are not unusual in the United States, nor are oil spills, chemical leaks or industrial accidents.
“It looks like these dadgum railroads would get it right after that many years and stop falling off the tracks, but they just can’t do it,” said Calvin Fayard Jr., a Louisiana lawyer who took the lead in a suit after a train carrying vinyl chloride — one of the substances that spilled and burned in East Palestine — derailed in a small Louisiana town in 1982.
As part of a $39 million settlement arising from the 1982 derailment, a commission was set up to monitor long-term health effects and oversee the decontamination of soil and water. That commission continued its work for more than 30 years, dissolving less than a decade ago, said Fayard, whose law partner has been in East Palestine talking with potential clients.
But a program of that magnitude is never a sure thing. After a train carrying vinyl chloride derailed in Paulsboro, New Jersey, in 2012, a federal judge ruled against any medical monitoring program and dismissed the suit; settlements were ultimately reached in state court.
No sooner had Till signed up the Davises as clients Thursday evening than another couple walked in, keeping him at work. The Davises stepped outside to talk with Michael McKim, the owner of the wine bar, which so far remains on track to open next month.
McKim had met Till in a hotel lobby during the town’s initial evacuation, and had been letting him use his place as an office ever since. This was all new to both couples.
“I feel like a baby seal in the middle of the ocean surrounded by great white sharks,” McKim said. But with as big a shark as Norfolk Southern as the defendant, he said, joining up with a law firm was his best chance. “It’s kind of nice to at least hang out with a shark that maybe understands.”
In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities
Joel Anderson – February 25, 2023
dszc / iStock.com
Rising home values can quickly transition a reasonable housing market into the type of real estate monster that has consumed places like the San Francisco Bay Area and New York City. While the idea of affordable housing in an urban center isn’t implausible for plenty of Americans living in some areas, that’s rapidly changing in many places.
GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which major U.S. cities are on track to lose their label of affordability. GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow’s September 2022-23 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of 537 U.S. cities that currently have home prices below the national median of $356,026, with those surpassing the national median in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed “not affordable.”
GOBankingRates notes that projecting into the future based on a single year’s growth rate might paint an unfair picture in markets where the current rate is an anomaly. Additionally, Zillow’s estimated home values don’t necessarily reflect the list prices or sale prices in each market.
Still, identifying the areas that are outpacing the national average for growth can help shed light on the cities where you should buy a home sooner rather than later. If you end up living in one of these cities 10 years down the line, you might want to check out other cities with more affordable housing.
will_snyder_ / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Roseburg, Oregon
August 2022 home value: $321,807
One-year projected growth rate: 20.4%
Roseburg is in the Hundred Valleys of the Umpqua in southwestern Oregon, known for having seasonal, but pleasant, temperatures – never too hot or too cold. It sits 123 miles north of the California border.
kaceyb / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2023
Projected home value: $387,456
U.S. median projected home value: $382,019
Difference in value: $5,437
2032 projected home value: $2,059,967
Steven Liveoak / Shutterstock.com
Auburn, Alabama
August 2022 home value: $321,643
One-year projected growth rate: 19.4%
Auburn, in the eastern part of central Alabama, is just 35 miles west of Columbus, Georgia, and a 3 ½-hour drive from vacation spots along the Gulf of Mexico. Auburn University is the city’s largest employer, with about 7,100 people working there
disorderly / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2023
Projected home value: $384,042
U.S. median projected home value: $382,019
Difference in value: $2,023
2032 projected home value: $1,894,163
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Fayetteville, Arkansas
August 2022 home value: $307,909
One-year projected growth rate: 23.1%
Another college town, Fayetteville is home to the University of Arkansas. Bill and Hillary Clinton called Fayetteville home before he was elected the state’s governor, and then president of the United States, and the home they lived in is now a museum preserving memories of their time in the city.
Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $466,593
U.S. median projected home value: $448,108
Difference in value: $18,485
2032 projected home value: $2,460,384
SeanPavonePhoto / iStock.com
Knoxville, Tennessee
August 2022 home value: $299,342
One-year projected growth rate: 23.1%
Knoxville, Tennessee sits at the foothills of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, and is a diverse city known for celebrating its many different ethnicities in festivals and cultural events. This city of over 192,000 people is also home to the University of Tennessee and the Knoxville Ice Bears professional hockey team.
Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $453,611
U.S. median projected home value: $448,108
Difference in value: $5,503
2032 projected home value: $2,391,928
Patricia Elaine Thomas / Shutterstock.com
Dallas, Texas
August 2022 home value: $308,661
One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%
Dallas, with 1.3 million residents, is the third-largest city in Texas but also the ninth-largest in the United States. It boasts many firsts. The nation’s first planned shopping center (Highland Park Village Shopping Center) and convenience store (7-Eleven) opened in Dallas, and the frozen margarita and precursor to the microchip were invented there.
Trong Nguyen / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $462,429
U.S. median projected home value: $448,108
Difference in value: $14,321
2032 projected home value: $2,329,678
Chris Rubino / Shutterstock.com
Tucson, Arizona
August 2022 home value: $307,232
One-year projected growth rate: 21.5%
Tucson is an hour north of the border with Mexico, and it lays claim to some of the best Mexican food in the U.S. Start on 12th Avenue in the city to begin your tour of what is called The Best 23 Miles of Mexican food.
Tim Roberts Photography / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $453,544
U.S. median projected home value: $448,108
Difference in value: $5,436
2032 projected home value: $2,153,918
chapin31 / iStock.com
Pueblo, Colorado
August 2022 home value: $291,995
One-year projected growth rate: 22.6%
A city of about 112,000 people, Pueblo is located along the Arkansas River in Colorado, which once was the boundary between the U.S. and Mexico. The Colorado State Fair has been held in Pueblo since 1872.
J. Michael Jones / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $538,080
U.S. median projected home value: $525,631
Difference in value: $12,449
2032 projected home value: $2,240,166
Shutterstock.com
Fort Worth, Texas
August 2022 home value: $292,963
One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%
A city of about 920,000, Fort Worth grew by more than 175,000 people between the censuses of 2010 and 2020. Fun fact: 60 percent of America’s paper money is printed at the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing Western Currency Facility in Fort Worth.
Christopher Boswell / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $537,226
U.S. median projected home value: $525,631
Difference in value: $11,595
2032 projected home value: $2,211,195
Susilyn / Shutterstock.com
Lakeland, Florida
August 2022 home value: $263,818
One-year projected growth rate: 25.6%
Lakeland is located along Interstate 4 between Tampa and Florida. It’s name is appropriate. Lakeland has 38 named lakes within its 74.4 square miles.
Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $656,543
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $39,978
2032 projected home value: $2,577,513
Shutterstock.com
Daytona Beach, Florida
August 2022 home value: $258,118
One-year projected growth rate: 25.5%
Daytona Beach is known as the home of the Daytona International Speedway and the Daytona 500, but even amateur drivers have a spot in the city. Visitors are allowed to drive – slowly – along designated areas of the 23-mile-long white-sand beaches.
Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $640,314
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $23,749
2032 projected home value: $2,501,817
Arizona: 3.00% APY
Yuma, Arizona
August 2022 home value: $266,546
One-year projected growth rate: 24.1%
Yuma has about 95,000 residents, and there’s a good many of them help to put some of the food on your table. According to the city’s tourism website, Yuma is the “winter vegetable capital of the world” and produces 91% of the leafy greens served in North America each winter. Instead of watching the ball drop on New Year’s Eve, you can watch the Iceberg Lettuce Drop.
Ken Lund / Flickr.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $632,207
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $15,642
2032 projected home value: $2,309,351
Brian Stansberry / Wikimedia Commons
Crossville, Tennessee
August 2022 home value: $262,886
One-year projected growth rate: 24.1%
In 12,000-resident Crossville, residents can test their physical and mental skills. Known as the Golf Capital of Tennessee, it has nine courses. And, Crossville is the headquarters of the United States Chess Federation, too.
Swarmcatcher / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $623,526
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $6,961
2032 projected home value: $2,277,641
B Brown / Shutterstock.com
Pocatello, Idaho
August 2022 home value: $289,072
One-year projected growth rate: 21.6%
Pocatello is in the southeastern portion of Idaho at an altitude of 4,448 feet. Home of Idaho State University, the city is along the Oregon Trail, in the western foothills of the Rocky Mountains.
Ric Schafer / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $632,034
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $15,469
2032 projected home value: $2,043,345
virsuziglis / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Jacksonville, Florida
August 2022 home value: $281,915
One-year projected growth rate: 21.8%
At 840 square miles, Jacksonville is the largest city in the continental United States in terms of land mass. About 950,000 people live in the city – almost twice the amount of residents of Florida’s second-largest city in terms of population, Miami.
Ron_Thomas / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $620,451
U.S. median projected home value: $616,565
Difference in value: $3,886
2032 projected home value: $2,025,774
Ocala, Fla
Ocala, Florida
August 2022 home value: $230,684
One-year projected growth rate: 25.6%
Ocala, the first town in Marion County in the early 1840s, has preserved much of its past in the Ocala Historic Downtown Square. Boutiques, restaurants, galleries and more fill the spaces. About 64,000 people live in Ocala.
Michael Warren / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2028
Projected home value: $905,639
U.S. median projected home value: $848,350
Difference in value: $57,289
2032 projected home value: $2,253,792
Lorraine Boogich / Getty Images
Cookeville, Tennessee
August 2022 home value: $262,204
One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%
Incorporated in 1903, Cookeville sits almost midway between two of Tennessee’s biggest cities – 101 miles west of Knoxville and 79 miles east of Nashville. Fun fact: According to the local visitor’s bureau, Cookeville is within a day’s drive of 75% of the nation’s population.
ESB / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2028
Projected home value: $881,714
U.S. median projected home value: $848,350
Difference in value: $33,364
2032 projected home value: $1,979,035
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Athens, Georgia
August 2022 home value: $279,410
One-year projected growth rate: 20.3%
Athens, with a population of 127,300, is 60 miles northeast of Atlanta. The home of the University of Georgia, the city is beaming with pride. Their beloved Bulldogs won the College Football Playoff national championship following the 2021 season – their first since 1980.
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2029
Projected home value: $1,018,829
U.S. median projected home value: $995,115
Difference in value: $23,714
2032 projected home value: $1,773,774
Manuela Durson / Shutterstock.com
Klamath Falls, Oregon
August 2022 home value: $280,201
One-year projected growth rate: 19.9%
Klamath Falls is in the south-central part of Oregon, just north of the California border. The city has a population of nearly 22,000, according to the 2020 U.S. Census. The Klamath Falls website reports the city has the highest concentration of bald eagles in the Pacific Northwest.
Oregon: 66.67 Hours a Month to Afford
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2029
Projected home value: $998,169
U.S. median projected home value: $995,115
Difference in value: $3,054
2032 projected home value: $1,720,527
Sean Pavone/iStockPhoto
Savannah, Georgia
August 2022 home value: $246,657
One-year projected growth rate: 22%
Savannah’s history dates to 1733, and it became the first city in the 13th colony – Georgia – which was named for King George II of England. Today, visitors are drawn by its period architecture, art and boutiques
SeanPavonePhoto / iStock.com
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2030
Projected home value: $1,210,520
U.S. median projected home value: $1,167,270
Difference in value: $43,250
2032 projected home value: $1,801,738
Shutterstock.com
Huntsville, Alabama
August 2022 home value: $266,033
One-year projected growth rate: 20.6%
The city is named after John Hunt, who settled there in 1805. It grew rapidly from 2010 to 2020 – from 180,000 to 215,000 people – and is a bustling area for the technology, space and defense industries. NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center and the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command are located in Huntsville.
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2030
Projected home value: $1,190,458
U.S. median projected home value: $1,167,270
Difference in value: $23,188
2032 projected home value: $1,731,445
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Clarksville, Tennessee
August 2022 home value: $270,758
One-year projected growth rate: 20%
Clarksville is about an hour’s drive north of Nashville and is located just south of the Kentucky border. About 167,000 people live there, and the average age of residents is 29, the city reports.
Google Maps
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2031
Projected home value: $1,397,052
U.S. median projected home value: $1,369,207
Difference in value: $27,845
2032 projected home value: $1,676,462
ivanastar / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Albuquerque, New Mexico
August 2022 home value: $289,262
One-year projected growth rate: 19%
About 565,000 people live in Albuquerque, and what does it mean if one of them asks you “red or green”? You’re being asked whether you want red or green chiles in your New Mexican fare. Reply “Christmas” if you want both.
photoBeard / Getty Images/iStockphoto
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2031
Projected home value: $1,384,248
U.S. median projected home value: $1,369,207
Difference in value: $15,041
2032 projected home value: $1,647,256
Jordan Rosenfeld contributed to the reporting for this article.
Methodology: GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow’s September 2022-23 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of 537 U.S. cities that currently have home prices below the national median, with those surpassing the national median in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed “not affordable.” For each “not affordable” city over the next decade, GOBankingRates found the following factors: (1) year the city will become “not affordable”; (2) projected home value for that year; (3) US average projected home value for that year; and (4) the difference in value between factors (2) and (3). NOTE: GOBankingRates does not expect growth in home value to stay stagnant at one current rate for the next decade, but using these constant figures gives us an idea where certain markets are heading without unforeseen market disruptors in the future. All data used to conduct this study was compiled and verified on October 11, 2022.
