Associated Press
Ukraine-Russia crisis: What to know in the escalating crisis
By Venessa Gera – February 21, 2022
Ukraine Russian Tensions
Ukrainian border guard officers patrol the Ukrainian-Belarusian state border at a checkpoint in Novi Yarylovychi, Ukraine, Monday, Feb.21, 2022.(AP Photo/Oleksandr Ratushniak)
A woman and her child from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the territory controlled by pro-Russia separatist governments in eastern Ukraine, waves from a train on their way to temporary shelter in another region of Russia, at the railway station in Taganrog, Russia, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. World leaders are making another diplomatic push in hopes of preventing a Russian invasion of Ukraine, even as heavy shelling continues in Ukraine’s east. (AP Photo)
Displaced civilians from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the territory controlled by pro-Russia separatist governments in eastern Ukraine, rest in a sport hall in Taganrog, Russia, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. World leaders are making another diplomatic push in hopes of preventing a Russian invasion of Ukraine, even as heavy shelling continues in Ukraine’s east. (AP Photo)
Anastasia Manha, 23, lulls her 2 month-old son Mykyta, where she lives with her family members, after alleged shelling by separatists forces in Novognativka, eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022. Russia is extending military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders after two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between Ukrainian soldiers and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. The exercises in Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north, originally were set to end on Sunday. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
A Ukrainian serviceman pauses while walking to a frontline position outside Popasna, in the Luhansk region, eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022. Russia extended military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders Sunday amid increased fears that two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between soldiers and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine could spark an invasion. Ukraine’s president appealed for a cease-fire. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)
A schoolgirl runs in Ukraine’s village of Dobryanka close to the Belarus border, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. (AP Photo/Oleksandr Ratushniak)
Sofia, 4, looks at a photographer inside a house where she lives with her parents and family members, after alleged shelling by separatists forces in Novognativka, eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022. Russia is extending military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders after two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between Ukrainian soldiers and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. The exercises in Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north, originally were set to end on Sunday. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
Russian President Vladimir Putin talks via videoconference with members of the Russian Paralympic Committee team on the eve of the XIII Paralympic Winter Games in Beijing, in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. (Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
People line up to withdraw money from an ATM in Donetsk, the territory controlled by pro-Russian militants, eastern Ukraine, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. World leaders are making another diplomatic push in hopes of preventing a Russian invasion of Ukraine, even as heavy shelling continues in Ukraine’s east. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov)More
Demonstrators holding a huge Ukrainian flag march along the street in Odessa, Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022. Thousands of people in Odessa marched through the streets of the city in a show of unity on Sunday, marking the date on which, eight years ago, more than a hundred people were killed during Ukraine’s Maidan revolution. Waving national flags and placards with slogans such as, ‘No Putin, No Cry’, people said they had come out to demonstrate against a potential Russian invasion, and said that they were prepared to defend their city if needed. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
Demonstrators march along the street in Odessa, Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022. Thousands of people in Odessa marched through the streets of the city in a show of unity on Sunday, marking the date on which, eight years ago, more than a hundred people were killed during Ukraine’s Maidan revolution. Waving national flags and placards with slogans such as, ‘No Putin, No Cry’, people said they had come out to demonstrate against a potential Russian invasion, and said that they were prepared to defend their city if needed. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
People gather for a vigil in solidarity with Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022, at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
A boy plays with a weapon as an instructor shows a Kalashnikov assault rifle while training members of a Ukrainian far-right group train, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022. Russia extended military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders Sunday amid increased fears that two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between soldiers and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine could spark an invasion. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
A woman adjusts her sari as she walks past as students of an art school display their art works calling for peace amid fears of a Russian offensive on Ukraine on a pavement in Mumbai, India, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)
Russia’s security council secretary Nikolai Patrushev delivers his speech at the IX Moscow conference on international security in Moscow, Russia, on June 24, 2021. With all eyes on a possible Russia invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is sending his top security envoy to the Balkans where Moscow has been trying to maintain influence mainly through its ally Serbia. Serbia’s pro-government media said Monday Nikolai Patrushev, the powerful secretary of the Kremlin’s Security Council, is due to arrive in Belgrade next week for talks with Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, Pool)
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba speaks during a media conference on the sidelines of a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. The European Union’s top diplomat, foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, welcomed the prospect of a summit but said that should diplomacy fail the 27-nation has finalized its package of sanctions for use if Putin orders an invasion. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba speaks during a media conference on the sidelines of a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. The European Union’s top diplomat, foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, welcomed the prospect of a summit but said that should diplomacy fail the 27-nation has finalized its package of sanctions for use if Putin orders an invasion. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)
European Council President Charles Michel, right, walks with Montenegro’s President Milo Dukanovic prior to a meeting at the European Council building in Brussels, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)
Austria’s Chancellor Karl Nehammer speaks during a news conference about the current situation in the Ukraine in Vienna, Austria, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. (AP Photo/Lisa Leutner)
A Ukrainian soldier trains during military drills close to Kharkiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022. Britain’s top diplomat has urged Russia to take the path of diplomacy even as thousands of Russian troops engaged in sweeping maneuvers in Belarus as part of a military buildup near Ukraine. (AP Photo/Andrew Marienko)
WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Global efforts to head off a Russian invasion of Ukraine were dealt a serious blow Monday when Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognizing the independence of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and ordered his military to “maintain peace” in the disputed areas.
But Putin’s moves, made as shelling continued in those areas, could be a precursor to the Kremlin sending in troops and weapons to support Russian-backed separatists. Doing so is sure to deepen already inflamed tensions between Russia and the West.
The White House said President Joe Biden had agreed “in principle” to meeting Putin only if the Kremlin refrains from launching an assault on Ukraine. Even in advance of any invasion, however, both Biden and the European Union said they would move ahead with targeted sanctions in response to Putin’s decrees.
U.S. officials said Biden would soon issue an executive order prohibiting Americans from investing and doing business in rebel-held areas. The order would also allow the U.S. to impose sanctions on anyone in the area, a move to exact economic pain on key supporters of the breakaway incursion.
In a joint statement, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel called Russia’s recognition of the disputed territories “a blatant violation of international law” and also vowed economic repercussions.
A Biden-Putin meeting would offer some new hope of averting a Russian invasion that U.S. officials said appeared imminent, as an estimated 150,000 Russian troops await Putin’s orders to strike. It was uncertain when — or if — troops massing at the border would enter Ukraine.
Here is a look at the latest developments in the security crisis in Eastern Europe:
PUTIN DECREES INDEPENDENCE FOR SEPARATIST REGIONS
In a long, ranting speech during a meeting of the Russian presidential Security Council, Putin charged that Ukraine had inherited Russia’s historic lands and after the Soviet collapse was used by the West to contain Russia.
His decision to recognize the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine severely ratcheted up the volatility. Western officials fear that Russia could invade Ukraine any moment, using skirmishes in eastern Ukraine as a pretext for an attack.
The decree allows Russia to sign treaties with rebel territories in eastern Ukraine and openly send troops and weapons there.
Putin’s decree tasked his foreign minister with establishing formal diplomatic relations with the separatist regions and offer mutual assistance when requested by rebel leaders to “maintain peace” in the two regions.
The decision came Monday after the Russian Security Council meeting, and it effectively shatters the 2015 Minsk peace agreements, which ended large-scale fighting. Violence has nevertheless simmered — and has seen a spike in recent weeks in the wider crisis.
A U.S. official said that a recognition of the two regions would be “condemnable.”
“If carried out, this would again result in the upending of the rules-based international order, under the threat of force,” Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, told a special session of the organization in Vienna.
The meeting of Putin’s presidential Security Council followed televised statements by separatist leaders, who pleaded with Putin to recognize them as independent states and sign friendship treaties envisaging military aid to protect them from what they described as the ongoing Ukrainian military offensive. Russia’s lower house made the same plea last week.
Ukrainian authorities deny launching an offensive and accuse Russia of provocation as shelling intensifies along the line of contact.
WILL BIDEN AND PUTIN MEET?
The U.S. and Russian presidents have tentatively agreed to meet in a last-ditch diplomatic effort to stave off Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, its first since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
Yet both seem cautious about a possible meeting.
The White House says the meeting will only happen if Russia does not invade Ukraine, noting that heavy shelling is continuing in eastern Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, for his part, said Monday “it’s premature to talk about specific plans for a summit.”
French President Emmanuel Macron sought to broker the possible meeting between Biden and Putin in a series of phone calls that dragged deep into Sunday night. Macron’s office said both leaders had “accepted the principle of such a summit,” to be followed by a broader meeting involving other leaders too.
The White House said Biden on Monday conferred with Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a 30-minute call.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov were to lay the groundwork for the summit at a meeting Thursday, according to Macron’s office.
WHAT’S THE SITUATION ON UKRAINE’S EASTERN FRONT?
Heavy shelling has increased in recent days along the tense line of contact between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatist rebels in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas.
The conflict there began after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The fighting has claimed at least 14,000 lives but had been largely quiet for a while.
Ukrainian military spokesman Pavlo Kovalchyuk said Ukrainian positions were shelled 80 times Sunday and eight times early Monday, noting that the separatists were “cynically firing from residential areas using civilians as shields.” He said Ukrainian forces weren’t returning fire.
In the village of Novognativka on the government-controlled side, 60-year-old Ekaterina Evseeva, said the shelling was worse than at the height of fighting.
“It’s worse than 2014,” she said, her voice trembling. “We are on the edge of nervous breakdowns. And there is nowhere to run.”
RUSSIAN TROOPS STAY IN BELARUS, ADDING TO FEARS
Russian troops who have been carrying out military exercises in Belarus, which is located on Ukraine’s northern border, were supposed to go home when those war games ended Sunday. But now Moscow and Minsk say that the Russian troops are staying indefinitely.
The continued deployment of the Russian forces in Belarus raised concerns that Russia could send those troops to sweep down on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, a city of 3 million less than a three-hour drive away from the Belarus border.
UKRAINE PROJECTS CALM
Despite Biden’s assertion that Putin has made the decision to roll Russian forces into Ukraine, Ukrainian officials sought to project calm, saying that they weren’t seeing an invasion as imminent.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Monday that Russia has amassed 147,000 troops around Ukraine, including 9,000 in Belarus, arguing that the number is insufficient for an offensive on the Ukrainian capital.
“The talk about an attack on Kyiv from the Belarusian side sounds ridiculous,” he said, charging that Russia is using the troops there to create fear.
Over the weekend at the Polish border, many Ukrainians were also returning home from shopping or working in the neighboring EU country. Some said they were not afraid and vowed to take up arms against Russia in case of an assault.
EU OFFERS TO ADVISE UKRAINE
For all the posturing and vows of reprisal from Western leaders, direct military intervention has thus far been ruled out.
However, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Monday the European Union has agreed to set up a military education advisory mission in his country.
Kuleba told reporters in Brussels after meeting with the bloc’s foreign ministers that an agreement had been reached in principle to roll out the advisory training military mission.
“This is not combat forces,” he said. “This is a new element in the cooperation between Ukraine and the European Union.”
The move could involve sending European officers to Ukraine’s military schools to help educate its armed forces. It’s likely to take several months to set up.
Russia has sought promises from NATO that it would never offer membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, a condition that the West has rejected.
The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, spoke Monday with the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Lt. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny.
Milley called Ukraine a key partner to NATO, according to the Pentagon’s summary of the phone call.
THE LATEST BRITISH WARNINGS
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was preparing to speak to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and “offer him the support of the United Kingdom.”
Earlier, Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, urged Putin to turn away from military action and pursue diplomacy not just for the sake of Ukrainians but to prevent Russian deaths.
Russians know the consequences of the past actions, including the invasion of Afghanistan and Russia’s invasion of Chechnya, he said.
“These are just two examples when too many young men returned home in zinc-lined coffins, and the government therefore urges President Putin for the sake of his own people, and even at this 11th hour, to rule out the invasion of Ukraine,” he said.
Wallace told the House of Commons that Putin had continued to build up forces in the region. Russia has now massed 65% of its land combat power on the Ukrainian border, he said.
U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the West was preparing “for the worst-case scenario,” adding: “We must make the cost for Russia intolerably high.”
Associated Press writers Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow; Yuras Karmanau and Lori Hinnant in Kyiv, Ukraine; Jill Lawless and Danica Kirka in London; Lorne Cook in Brussels, Frances D’Emilio in Rome, Angela Charlton in Paris and Bobby Caina Calvan in New York contributed to this report.