The spark for a wider war? Why Americans should care about Russia’s aggression against Ukraine
Michael Collins, USA TODAY – February 12, 2022
WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden warned his Russian counterpart Saturday that an invasion of Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering,” as the U.S. and its allies scrambled to stave off a possible war in Europe.
Biden’s remarks, made in a phone call with Vladimir Putin amid fears that a Russian attack on its neighbor is imminent, offered a grim assessment of what U.S. officials believe could be the most consequential military conflict since World War II.
And it highlights, in stark terms, why Americans should care about the fate of an eastern European nation that’s roughly the size of Texas and is known for golden sunflowers, the Chernobyl nuclear disaster and being the spark for President Donald Trump’s first impeachment saga.
The current conflict is rooted in Putin’s desire to reestablish the influence that Russia wielded under the Soviet empire, foreign policy experts say. The U.S., in turn, wants to keep Russian aggression in check while working to strengthen a struggling democracy that has become more closely aligned with the West.
The U.S. has already spent billions of dollars to help Ukraine build up its military defenses, an investment that’s likely to escalate dramatically if Russia invades. The U.S. had about 160 National Guard troops in Ukraine advising the country’s military, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered their withdrawal on Saturday amid signs of an imminent Russian invasion.
Though Biden has said the U.S. would not send troops to help defend Ukraine against Russian forces, his administration has already sent American forces to other eastern European countries. On Friday, the Pentagon ordered 3,000 U.S. soldiers from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Poland, to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. And the National Guard troops withdrawing from Ukraine will be sent elsewhere in Europe.
The spark for a wider war?
Since Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, it has served as a buffer between Russia and the West, one whose security and stability could have ramifications for Europe and beyond.
“In many ways, Ukraine tells us about the future of the international system,” said Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund, which promotes cooperation and understanding between North America and Europe.
If Russia is allowed to invade, occupy and annex its neighbor, “that’s an inherently very unstable international system, which will affect America’s security and its prosperity,” Conley said.
A Ukrainian government minister warned Britain’s Sky News in December that a full invasion of Ukraine would spread conflict around Europe and could even trigger World War III.
“It is unpredictable as to what will happen,” said William Taylor, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. He noted that throughout history, conflicts often start small with an assassination or a strike on one country that then spreads to other parts of the world.
Russia ‘won’t stop’ with Ukraine
A Russian invasion of Ukraine would spread fear across the region and has already led to a further buildup of NATO forces in other eastern European countries.
“If the Russians succeed in reestablishing a sphere of influence or of dominating Ukraine, they won’t stop there. They will continue,” Taylor said. “The Poles and the Romanians, the Czechs will be very concerned as they see Russian tanks coming west from Russia into Ukraine toward them, and they will ask for reinforcements from the United States.”
A successful invasion of Ukraine, Taylor said, could embolden Russia to be more aggressive in other arenas – such as cyberattacks, election meddling and influence campaigns designed to undermine Western democracies.
Other U.S. adversaries also will be watching to see whether the Biden administration and its NATO allies will follow through on their warnings to answer a Russian invasion with devastating economic sanctions and additional shipments of weapons to Ukraine and other eastern European countries.
“NATO and the U.S. credibility are on the line,” said Will Pomeranz, acting director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, a think tank dedicated to Russian and Eurasia research. “And if they fail, that will be taken by China and other adversaries as an unwillingness by the West to defend its interests.”
Putin’s power and legitimacy
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have erupted frequently in the three decades since Ukraine declared its independence.
Ukraine, which has a population of 44 million, has deep historical and cultural ties to Russia. The two countries share a 1,200-mile border. Many Ukrainians work in Russia. By some estimates, one-third or more of Ukrainians speak Russian as well as the country’s official language, Ukrainian. Russian companies are among the largest investors in Ukraine.
But Ukraine has forged closer ties to the West since the fall of the Soviet Union. In 2008, it sought – and was promised – membership in the NATO alliance. Though that membership has never been granted, the prospect of a bigger, stronger NATO has rattled Putin, who still sees Ukraine as a part of Russia.
Ukraine, Putin insists, must never be granted NATO membership.
In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, a swath of Ukraine territory between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Russian operatives and separatist fighters have since launched attacks on eastern Ukraine, and the Kremlin continually works to undermine the country’s sovereignty militarily and in other ways.
The U.S. and its allies view the annexation as illegal and imposed sanctions in response. Last year, the U.S. sent more than $400 million in military aid to Ukraine; since 2014, the U.S. has provided about $2.5 billion in assistance to the country.
The stage for the latest clash was set late last year when Russia deployed more than 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s eastern border. Russian forces are now preparing to conduct major drills in the Black and Azov seas in the coming days and have engaged in other military exercises, raising alarms that another invasion could come within days.
Putin has repeatedly denied he is plotting to invade the country again. On Saturday, the Kremlin accused the West of engaging in “provocative speculations” about Russia’s intentions. The U.S. and its NATO allies do not believe those denials, citing Putin’s long history of refusing to accept Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Analysts say Ukraine poses no defensive threat to Russia, so Putin’s designs on the country have more to do with his long-held ambitions of expanding Russia’s influence and returning to what he views as the greatness of the Soviet empire.
As Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, once said: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire. But with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.”
“This is all about Mr. Putin’s power, his legitimacy and maintaining it,” Conley said.
Putin’s legacy would be much more secure if he created a modern, thriving economy that benefited all Russians, Conley said. Instead, he has presided over a decade of steady economic decline in his country.
“While he has hypersonic cruise missiles, the Russian people are not getting the services and the standard of living that they deserve,” Conley said.
What Putin fears most, she said, is that Russians will see the Ukrainian people living in a free, democratic society where the results of elections aren’t predetermined and citizens are allowed to speak their minds.
“The greatest threat to Russia is a free and thriving Ukraine,” Conley said. “Because if Ukrainian people can experience it, why can’t the Russian people experience it?”
After Russia invaded Georgia, another former Soviet republic, in 2008, the U.S. sought to reset its relations with Moscow.
“We got back to normal, and the message that sent was we get over it,” Conley said. “Now we’re into much more serious territory.”
Michael Collins covers the White House. Tom Vanden Brook and Deirdre Shesgreen contributed to this story.
Contributing: Courtney Subramanian and Deirdre Shesgreen