China is building new coal power so fast that ‘energy transition’ by the West is meaningless

The Telegraph – Opinion

China is building new coal power so fast that ‘energy transition’ by the West is meaningless

David Blackmon – September 6, 2023

China will soon have more new coal power than the US does in total
China will soon have more brand-new coal power than the US does in total – Michael Reynolds/EPA

Several interesting things have happened lately.

Bloomberg reported on August 30 that a recent update by British/Dutch oil giant Shell seems to have quietly abandoned a previously-announced radical plan to cut the company’s carbon emissions. Meanwhile Shell will increase investment in finding and producing more oil and natural gas.

The same media platform reported August 29 that China’s government has now approved the building of more new coal-fired power plants than are currently operating in the United States. The researchers who worked this out stated that these new coal plants are mostly in places with lots of existing coal power, and will provide capacity beyond that needed to back up renewables. This would appear to be a tacit admission that more fossil fuel energy is required to meet rising demand for electricity, even as Chinese population growth has stagnated.

Also on August 29, Rystad Energy released a new report which finds the “reinvestment rate among a group of 18 public shale companies hit 72 per cent in Q2 2023, the highest since Q2 2020,” as US shale producers strive to raise production to meet rising demand.

All these stories, and others, are indicative of industries and governments refocusing investments away from less productive green energy schemes, plowing more capital into efforts to increase production and generation. The driving factor behind this rededication to growth is obvious. The world continues to demand more oil, natural gas, and yes, coal to provide reliable and affordable energy to the masses.

Unlike Shell, BP and other European oil giants, US major ExxonMobil has never apologized for or scaled back investments in its core business efforts even as it has ramped up major new investments in various emissions-reducing projects through its Low Carbon Solutions business unit in recent years. ExxonMobil always has been and plans to remain at its core an oil and gas company, and the reasons why are spelled out in the 2023 edition of its annual Global Energy Outlook that was also published this week.

The key point in the Outlook that grabbed the most headlines in the renewables-obsessed legacy media is the finding that the world has fallen well behind the progress needed to meet the UN’s goal of having a “net-zero” energy mix by 2050, and that dynamic is unlikely to change over the next 27 years. This conclusion is hardly novel at this point – that view has in fact become part of a rising consensus among energy experts over the course of 2023. But most of the corporate media is so heavily invested in pushing the climate alarmist talking points that this finding still becomes the main headline related to a report that contains all manner of other interesting and valuable findings.

ExxonMobil’s projected shifts in the global energy mix between now and 2050 are a good example. The Global Outlook forecasts that fossil fuels – oil, natural gas, and coal – will still provide 69 per cent of global primary energy in 2050, which compares to the 80 per cent derived from those sources in 2022. The report projects the world will still demand the use of 25 billion metric tons (BMT) of oil in 2050, more than double the 11 billion projected by the International Energy Agency, whose initial findings seem to always be heavily optimistic in favor of a rapid transition, yet also always seem to require later, more pessimistic revisions.

That 25 BMT projection for 2050 will be a noticeable fall from the projected peak at 34 BMT of oil later in this decade. By contrast, the Global Outlook projects natural gas demand to increase by over 20 per cent during the next 27 years, “…given its utility as a reliable and lower-emissions source of fuel for electricity generation, hydrogen production, and heating for both industrial processes and buildings.” That finding also runs contrary to the IEA’s projection, as well as to the overarching media narrative related to the energy transition. But then again, almost everything currently happening in the energy space also conflicts with those things, so why should this Global Outlook be any different?

To further emphasize the continuing intractability of rising global energy demand, ExxonMobil’s researchers find that “energy from solar and wind is projected to more than quintuple, from 2 per cent of the world’s supply to 11 per cent.” The study also finds overall global CO2 emissions dropping dramatically by 2050, from a projected peak of roughly 34 BMT later this decade to about 25 BMT. But that reduction comes up well short of the UN’s goal of 11 BMT by 2050.

The report’s conclusion advocates for continuing public policy support for development of low carbon solutions, but the authors emphasize the need for these solutions to be “market-driven,” “technology-agnostic,” and to “incentivize all approaches, equally.”

Given that all these crucial energy policy decisions are being made by politicians beholden to their own preferred solutions which help fund their election campaigns, there is little reason to think any of those directional goals will be adopted. Thus, there is every reason to expect this heavily subsidized “energy transition” to continue to fail to meet its stated goals.

David Blackmon had a 40 year career in the US energy industry, the last 23 years of which were spent in the public policy arena, managing regulatory and legislative issues for various companies. He continues to write and podcast on energy matters

Mike Huckabee Hints at Violence if Trump Loses in 2024: Will Be Last Election ‘Decided by Ballots Rather Than Bullets’ (Video)

THe Wrap

Mike Huckabee Hints at Violence if Trump Loses in 2024: Will Be Last Election ‘Decided by Ballots Rather Than Bullets’ (Video)

Dessi Gomez – September 6, 2023

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee warned on the latest episode of his “Huckabee” program on the Trinity Broadcasting Network that the 2024 election may be the last decided by “ballots rather than bullets” if former President Donald Trump does not win.

Huckabee, himself a failed presidential candidate, began the segment by accusing President Joe Biden with enacting similar policing tactics seen in “third-world dictatorships” to silent his primary political opponent.

“Do you know how political opponents to those in power are dealt with in third-world dictatorships, banana republics and communist regimes?” Huckabee asked during his monologue of Saturday night’s episode. “The people in power use their police agencies to arrest their opponents for made-up crimes in an attempt to discredit them, bankrupt them, imprison them, exile them or all of the above.”

For Huckabee, the multiple indictments against Trump fall under the “made-up crimes” category. Trump became the first American president to be indicted in March with charges relating to 2016 hush money payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. And he has faced three indictments since then, most recently a series of charges out of Fulton County, Georgia, relating to alleged efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results.

While it’s unfounded by fact, Huckabee said he believes that Trump’s legal woes surrounding alleged hush-money payments, conspiracies to defraud the United States, mishandling of classified documents and more are a direct result of Biden trying to silence his political opponent.

“If you are not paying attention, you may not realize that Joe Biden is using exactly those tactics to make sure that Donald Trump is not his opponent in 2024,” Huckabee said.

“This kind of thuggery at tax payer expense isn’t supposed to happen in the United States,” he continued. “No, we’re supposed to be a nation of laws and not a nation of powerful people. But the Biden administration is in full meltdown mode to hide the money laundering, influence peddling and outright bribery that Joe, his son Hunter and their associates have been conducting for well over a decade that has enriched them to the tune of tens of millions of dollars.”

And that’s where the former politician intimated of violence to come if the legal actions against Trump are to cost him the 2024 presidential election.

“Here’s the problem: If these tactics end up working to keep Trump from winning or even running in 2024, it is going to be the last American election that will be decided by ballots rather than bullets,” he said.

Watch Huckabee’s full opening monologue in the video above.

Drivers squeezed as auto insurance costs soar across the U.S.

The Washington Post

Drivers squeezed as auto insurance costs soar across the U.S.

Eli Tan and Aaron Gregg – September 5, 2023

Louisiana resident Kalisa Hobbs said she has no choice but to accept auto insurance rate hikes. (Emily Kask for The Washington Post)

Car insurance is a growing burden for Kalisa Hobbs.

Hobbs, who lives near the northern shore of Louisiana’s Lake Pontchartrain, said the cost of her auto coverage jumped almost 30 percent this year when State Farm added hundreds of dollars to her annual premium, raising it to $1,806. “I’m not going to go hungry or homeless, but like everybody else I live on a budget, and when that budget gets interrupted, it’s difficult,” said Hobbs, 56, who works as a communications manager at a paper mill. “It’s just on my credit card, and I’ll pay it off when I can.”

Hobbs has been swept up in a larger trend affecting hundreds of thousands of American drivers: soaring car insurance rates, with some states seeing increases above 50 percent in the past year.

Premiums have kept climbing even as other types of inflation have cooled. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, car insurance for U.S. drivers in July was 16 percent more expensive than in July 2022, and 70 percent more expensive than in 2013.

“Car repair costs, body shop wages, and used car prices have all had significant increases,” said Frank Palmer, chief insurance officer at Root Insurance. “The entire industry has had to raise rates to keep up with these trends.”

Motor vehicle maintenance costs, for example, are up 13 percent from July of last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“It’s more expensive to diagnose newer vehicles,” said David Woodall, a mechanic at Metro Motor in Washington, D.C. “The parts aren’t a whole lot more expensive, but the frequency of repair on them is more than it used to be. If an air bag goes off, that’s thousands of dollars – a new car might have eight air bags in it.”

But the rate hikes are also an attempt by insurers to make up for big payouts driven by floods and natural disasters, which insurers categorize as “catastrophe losses.” States prone to climate disasters have seen some of the steepest auto-rate hikes.

In Colorado, car insurance premiums have increased 52 percent since last July as blizzards, tornadoes and hailstorms have led to an increased number of claims. And in Florida, premiums have soared 88 percent as insurers scramble to make up losses from hurricane-linked damage claims.

“Regular people are being priced out of the state,” says Inger Berg, a resident of Pensacola, Fla. She says Allstate recently hiked the policy on her Volkswagen Jetta by $85 a month.

The hikes follow a tough year for many insurers.

In 2022, State Farm reported $13.4 billion of underwriting loss in its auto insurance department. Allstate, which reported a $678 million loss in that sector in the first half of 2023, increased its auto insurance rates by 9.3 percent across 15 locations in May to make up for the losses, Allstate chief financial officer Jess Merten said last month.

State agencies have largely gone along with these hikes, executives said.

“We’re going to maximum file rates everywhere we can, and we’re not getting as much pushback from regulators because the numbers are pretty clear,” Allstate chief executive Tom Wilson said during the company’s most recent earnings call. “Like, it’s not like we’re making it up.”

No escape from higher premiums

Rising rates especially hurt those who rely on their vehicles to get to work or manage family life, experts said, with many drivers seeing their budgets stretched to the brink.

Car insurance is required by law ― “just another part of adulting,” as Hobbs put it ― and rates can go up or down based on factors that are out of any individual’s control, even with a clean driving record.

A driver’s auto bill can increase simply because of where they live, or because repair services they haven’t used are becoming more expensive.

That’s what happened to Hobbs when State Farm hiked her annual premium by $400. She was in one accident but didn’t file a claim because it wasn’t her fault, she said. She was told it was part of a statewide increase this year.

State Farm spokesman Justin Tomczak did not address Hobbs’s account specifically, but said car insurance premiums in Louisiana are expected to increase by about 17.7 percent in 2023, for both new and existing customers. Higher premiums in Louisiana and elsewhere are driven by inflationary pressures, supply chain issues and higher claim costs, he said.

“We continue to adjust to these trends to make sure we are matching price to risk,” Tomczak said in an email.

Although auto insurance rates in Louisiana actually fell 6 percent in 2022, the state’s average premium of $2,546 remains the second-highest behind Florida’s. Hobbs pays less than that, but she feels the sting of every increase in her total insurance bill, which she estimated at more than $22,000 a year across multiple providers for all forms of coverage, including property, medical and life insurance.

Consumer advocates point out that the auto insurance industry had a record year in 2020, when fewer cars were on the road but the rates were priced in from the previous year.

No matter how much control regulators have, insurers are allowed to set profitable rates, said David Forte, a policy adviser for the Office of the Insurance Commissioner in Washington state. Even in states with strict oversight, such as California and Washington, Forte said, insurers are allowed to price in an estimated profit of about 5 percent.

States with looser regulations are finding new ways to control costs. Last year, in Georgia, the state’s insurance commissioner said he was “angry and disappointed” in Allstate for raising rates 40 percent. In May, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) passed a law that gave state insurance regulators more control over prices.

But regulators have to tread a fine line between controlling costs and driving away insurers. Some insurance companies are abandoning parts of the Southeast, leaving drivers with few options. Farmers Insurance recently suspended new policies in California, Louisiana and Florida, for example.

“There’s one thing worse than rising rate hikes,” Georgia Deputy Insurance Commissioner Steve Manders told The Washington Post. “And that’s not having coverage at all.”

In southern Mississippi, student Andrew “AC” Bledsoe has been driving for Uber in the summer months, when his graduate stipend to study lighting and sound design isn’t paying the bills. In early 2022 he signed up with Root Insurance Company, which tracks policyholders through a cellphone app and promises cheaper rates for safe drivers.

Bledsoe said he was led to believe that good driving behavior would keep monthly insurance premiums low, but his rates kept climbing even though he retained a driver safety rating of 8 out of 10. His six-month insurance rate climbed from around $1,150 to nearly $1,800 ― growing larger than his car payment and not far from his monthly share of rent.

“It sounded like a great deal because I take pride in staying safe on the road,” Bledsoe said in an email.

“But,” he said later in an interview. “It wasn’t in my budget for the price to go up.”

Root’s Palmer said the company recognized industry-wide loss trends sooner than other insurers. He predicted that other competitors “will continue to take rate increases going forward” and said he sees Root’s good-driver discount as “still a useful tool to bring insurance costs down for good drivers.”

But it’s not useful enough, in Bledsoe’s view. He’s switching to State Farm, which he says offered him a cheaper rate.

Hitting low-income drivers hard

The higher costs of car insurance are being passed down to the country’s most financially vulnerable drivers, economists and consumer advocates say.

Lower- and middle-income households are already squeezed by the rising cost of shelter, KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said, and car ownership is yet another cost that harms them disproportionately.

Federal rules allow insurers to consider socioeconomic factors when setting rates, leading to the worst increases being borne by the people least able to afford them, said Doug Heller, director of insurance at the Consumer Federation of America.

“If you have a blue-collar job, or if you only have a high school degree, a number of companies will charge you more than if you’re a white-collar professional,” Heller said. “Everybody’s facing rate hikes, but a greater share is borne by lower-income drivers.”

Families also often face a heavier financial burden, especially when all adults in a household, along with teenage children, need transportation to work. And recent immigrants can suffer a financial penalty if insurers won’t accept their out-of-country driving experience.

Refugee families living in the United States, for example, have increasingly been downgrading from multiple cars to just one, said Jon Vosper, an executive at the aid organization International Rescue Committee. Those refugees are struggling with higher premiums, which, along with rent, make it harder to live in America’s car-centric suburban areas, according to Fred Rabin, a financial education specialist with IRC in San Diego.

Rabin recalls one client, an Afghan refugee, who was quoted at nearly $550 per month because the insurance company wouldn’t count his previous driving experience. But Rabin says his clients have no choice.

“A car here is a need, not a want,” Rabin said. “If you don’t have a car, you can’t work, you can’t afford expenses.”

Some drivers are downgrading to “liability-only” policies that fulfill legal requirements but otherwise offer little, if any, coverage, Vosper said.

Driving without insurance is illegal and can lead to the suspension of a driver’s license – or even jail time in some states – but some drivers are taking the risk and dropping insurance altogether. A 2023 Policy Genius survey of nearly 3,000 drivers ages 17 to 34 found that in the past year, 17 percent of them opted to drive uninsured.

But Louisiana resident Hobbs doesn’t see that as an option. She’s sticking with State Farm for now despite her rate increase, assuming other providers would charge her similarly.

“I sucked it up and paid it, because what can I do?” she said. “I have to have insurance on my car.”

Amy Nakamura contributed to this report.

‘The Old Farmer’s Almanac’ Predicts That Winter Will Be Frigid and Snowy Everywhere But Here

Country Living

‘The Old Farmer’s Almanac’ Predicts That Winter Will Be Frigid and Snowy Everywhere But Here

Karla Walsh – September 1, 2023

‘The Old Farmer’s Almanac’ Predicts That Winter Will Be Frigid and Snowy Everywhere But Here


“Hearst Magazines and Yahoo may earn commission or revenue on some items through these links.”

Since 1792, when Robert B. Thomas founded his publication The Old Farmer’s Almanac, the brand has been releasing long-long-term seasonal forecasts.

These conjectures are based on a formula that combines old methods like solar science and the study of sunspots (magnetic storms on the sun’s surface, which were once thought to affect conditions on Earth), with new ones, such as climatology and the study of weather patterns, meteorology, and the atmosphere.

Admittedly, many meteorologists believe that you can’t reliably trust a forecast beyond 10 days. However, with a self-reported 80 percent accuracy average, there’s something tempting about taking a peek about the Almanac’s predictions to see if we can tell the meteorological future.

So what’s ahead for around the next solstice, December 21, 2023? The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2023-2024 Winter Forecast claims to have our answers. Apparently, it’s a wise idea to have your coat and mittens ready, because “the 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts snow, seasonable cold, and all of winter’s delights,” the authors explain. “This winter’s forecast is sure to excite snow bunnies and sweater lovers alike, promising a whole lot of cold and snow across North America!”

In nearly all snow-prone parts of the country, expect higher-than-usual rates of snowfall, with an early start and late end to flurry season. Alongside the frosty scenery, you can anticipate colder-than-common temps. Central and Eastern states might be blasted with another frigid polar vortex this winter. In fact, “only snowy New England and the Atlantic Corridor will enjoy winter temperatures which are milder than what’s typical for their regions,” the Almanac says.

<p><a href=
Shop NowThe 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanacamazon.com$8.22More

In the Deep South, Texas, and California, rain will prevail, and residents along the majority of the Eastern coastline may experience a mix of mild and cool temps. The Pacific Northwest is one region that’s expected to remain “relatively dry and cold throughout the season.”

If you’re curious about what the crystal ball says about your particular locale, check out this region-by-number map to determine where you land. Then check out your specific weather prediction below. (Psst…we’ve called out all the spots where you may be able to look forward to a white Christmas, in case sledding, snowball fights, or simply feeling like you’re sitting inside a snowglobe are treasured parts of your holiday traditions.)

  • Region 1: Northeast — “The snowiest stretches occur in mid-to late November, mid-December and early to mid-January,” the Almanac says. Overall, the temps appear to be tracking above normal, with chilly spurts in mid- to late November, early to mid-January, and early to mid-February.
  • Region 2: Atlantic Corridor — Snowfall is expected to be 2 to 3 inches above monthly averages, with the snowiest parts of the season at the tail end of December, late January, and mid-February. Temperatures should be above normal, except for a cold spell from late January to the middle of February.
  • Region 3: Appalachians — You may notice above-normal overall precipitation and snowfall, however. As far as the mercury levels, they are on track to be just below average.
  • Region 4: Southeast — While it’s unlikely to be a white Christmas, it might be a wet one, folks! Overall precipitation rates seem higher than usual, as do temps, which are expected to be mild and slightly above normal.
  • Region 5: Florida — Wet and mild rules the day for most of the state (except the dryer south). Snowbirds will be happy to hear that Florida’s winter temps are anticipated to be milder than usual this year.
  • Region 6: Lower Lakes — North of I-90, Santa might bring you a white Christmas! Beyond that, the snowy, colder-than-average periods are expected for late January through mid-February.
  • Region 7: Ohio Valley — With a wetter and colder than usual winter on the horizon, residents can look forward to a snowy week around Hanukkah and Christmas. “The coldest spells will occur in late December, early January, and late January through mid-February,” the authors say.
  • Region 8: Deep South — Get your rain boots ready; you’ll need them for much of the wet and mild yet colder-than-common season. The chilliest times are forecasted for late December, early and late January, as well as early February.
  • Region 9: Upper Midwest — Go ahead and start dreaming of a white Christmas, because the authors claim that this is one of the few regions that is expected to entirely be treated to a fluffy, white gift on December 25. Winter temps are anticipated to be below normal, especially during the second half of November, the majority of December, the start and end of January, and early February. Snowfall is also expected to be above normal rates.
  • Region 10: Heartland — Keep that scarf handy. The forecast for this region includes colder than normal climate. You can also anticipate a white Christmas, with winter’s snowy peak from late December to mid-January.
  • Region 11: Texas-Oklahoma — With just a bit more precipitation and temps leaning ever so colder in the north but warmer in the south, conditions are looking about on par for the course in these states.
  • Region 12: High Plains — Precipitation and snowfall will be a bit higher than most years, and “it will be extra cold,” the Almanac explains, with the glacial temps foreshadowed for late November, late December, and early to mid-January.
  • Region 13: Intermountain — Who’s ready for some soup? Temps are prophesied to be an estimated 4° F below average, and “we’re looking at above-normal snowfall. The snowiest periods will be in mid- to late November, early and late January, and mid-February,” the authors claim. “Expect a white Christmas!”
  • Region 14: Desert Southwest — In parts of this region that typically receive snow, folks can await more flakes than normal, with the snowiest times during the second half of January and mid-February. Temps will be cooler than usual, especially in late November, at the start and end of December, and throughout late January.
  • Region 15: Pacific Northwest — Although this region is known for its frequently dreary conditions, residents can look forward to a colder yet drier-than-normal winter. The coldest weeks will fall in mid-November, late December, and mid-January.
  • Region 16: Pacific Southwest — It’s going to be a wet, stormy, and cold season, with the most precip predicted during early and late January, early to mid-February, and mid-March.
  • Region 17: Alaska — With a white Christmas and snowier-than-usual season ahead, you may guess that it will also be a frigid season. But the Almanac claims that temps should be about 4° F above average.
  • Region 18: Hawaii — Rainy and mild is the M.O. for the islands, the Almanac predicts. “Expect the stormiest periods in early November in the east and early January and mid-February.”

Exxon Mobil Predicts Climate Efforts Will Fail

Futurism

Exxon Mobil Predicts Climate Efforts Will Fail

Maggie Harrison – September 1, 2023

Pexximist Mobil

According to Exxon Mobil, oil giant and one of the more prominent architects of our planet’s fossil fuel-laden doom, humanity is likely to fail its climate goals of halting a global temperature rise of two degrees Celsius by 2050.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, Exxon published its grim prediction in a Monday climate report, effectively arguing that while global climate change efforts have made some progress — CO2 emissions caused by world fossil fuel consumption, the company posits, will fall by 25 billion metric tons by 2050, which will mark a 26 percent decrease from this decade’s “peak of 34 billion,” according to the WSJ — it simply won’t be enough to curb that dreaded two-degree global temperature uptick.

“An energy transition is underway,” reads the Exxon report, according to Reuters, “but it is not yet happening at the scale or on the timetable required to achieve society’s net-zero ambitions.”

Very bleak! And yet, according to the WSJ, Exxon also, in the very same report, argued that fossil fuels are conveniently still necessary to power worldwide economic growth.

“Fossil fuels remain the most effective way,” said the oil producer, “to produce the massive amounts of energy needed to create and support the manufacturing, commercial transportation, and industrial sectors that drive modern economies.”

Great. Thanks for nothing.

Cigarette Marketing

We really can’t stress enough how ludicrous it is to receive such dismal climate projections from Exxon specifically. To back up for a second: in 2015, an investigation revealed that executives at Exxon were made aware of the threat of greenhouse gas-caused climate change back in 1977, long before the public knew anything about it. They chose to ignore the risk, even spending millions to launch a long series of climate misinformation campaigns. Today, as the WSJ notes, the company is currently embroiled in a number of lawsuits related to climate deception.

That’s all to say that this latest report feels much like the cigarette lobby publishing a memo declaring that people are still dying from lung cancer, before turning around and explaining why cigarettes are still super useful and necessary long-term for social progress, actually. (Indeed, there are a lot of similarities between the cigarette lobby and oil giants.) And in June of this year, it’s worth noting, Exxon and Chevron shareholders rejected a series of proposals aimed to further limit emissions.

To Exxon’s credit, it’s probably right. The Earth is in a very bad place — and as long as Exxon’s still making upwards of $56 billion in oil sales annually, hitting our 2050 emissions targets is unlikely.

Scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. Now they know how bad.

USA Today

Scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. Now they know how bad.

Doyle Rice, USA Today – September 1, 2023

There is a link between global warming and polar bears after all. And it’s not a good one.

According to a new study released Thursday, for the first time, scientists can measure the impact that greenhouse gas emissions have on polar bear cub survival. This is key because although scientists have known for years that a lack of sea ice could be devastating for polar bears, there was no methodology in place to quantify the specific effect that human-caused climate change had on the iconic species.

“Until now, scientists hadn’t offered the quantitative evidence to relate greenhouse gas emissions to population decline,” said study co-author Cecilia Bitz, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, in a statement.

Sea ice decline could eventually lead to extinction

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane are produced from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal. Those gases have warmed the world’s atmosphere and oceans and are leading to reduced amounts of sea ice in the Arctic.

Polar bears rely on that sea ice to hunt, and when the ice is absent, they are forced onto land where they cannot find food. As Arctic sea ice declines in response to warming temperatures, polar bears must fast for longer periods.

Researchers estimated the relationship between how long bears fasted and each gigaton of cumulative emissions.

Scientists have said most polar bears could become extinct by the end of the century unless warming is curbed.

More: Climate change may push polar bears to the brink of extinction within 100 years, study says

How does the study relate to the Endangered Species Act?

The study also has policy implications because it allows a formal assessment of how future proposed actions would impact polar bears.

Researchers believe it overcomes a legal roadblock in the Endangered Species Act that prevented the federal government from considering climate change when evaluating projects like oil and gas drilling.

The Department of Interior has said greenhouse gas emissions can’t be considered when evaluating a project’s effects on endangered species unless its emissions impact could be distinguished from historic global emissions.

“What’s really relevant for policy is emissions,” rather than atmospheric concentrations, said Bitz.

A young female polar bear on the island of Svalbard wanders the meltwater channels on the sea ice.
A young female polar bear on the island of Svalbard wanders the meltwater channels on the sea ice.

Study lead author Steven Amstrup of Polar Bear International said, “I consider this the most important paper of my career. It helps explain recently observed population trends, overcomes a stumbling block in U.S. policy, and can inform other countries considering development projects – finally giving polar bears the protection they need.”

Amstrup also believes the methodology used in the new study can be applied to many other species, such as sea turtles or coral reefs.

Bitz said that “I hope the U.S. government fulfills its legal obligation to protect polar bears by limiting greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. I hope investments are made into fossil fuel alternatives that exist today, and to discover new technologies that avoid greenhouse gas emissions.”

The study was published in the journal Science.

Contributing: The Associated Press

USA TODAY

Scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. Now they know how bad.

Doyle Rice, USA TODAYFri, September 1, 2023 at 3:14 PM CDT·3 min read95

There is a link between global warming and polar bears after all. And it’s not a good one.

According to a new study released Thursday, for the first time, scientists can measure the impact that greenhouse gas emissions have on polar bear cub survival. This is key because although scientists have known for years that a lack of sea ice could be devastating for polar bears, there was no methodology in place to quantify the specific effect that human-caused climate change had on the iconic species.

“Until now, scientists hadn’t offered the quantitative evidence to relate greenhouse gas emissions to population decline,” said study co-author Cecilia Bitz, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, in a statement.

Sea ice decline could eventually lead to extinction

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane are produced from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal. Those gases have warmed the world’s atmosphere and oceans and are leading to reduced amounts of sea ice in the Arctic.

Polar bears rely on that sea ice to hunt, and when the ice is absent, they are forced onto land where they cannot find food. As Arctic sea ice declines in response to warming temperatures, polar bears must fast for longer periods.

Researchers estimated the relationship between how long bears fasted and each gigaton of cumulative emissions.

Scientists have said most polar bears could become extinct by the end of the century unless warming is curbed.

More: Climate change may push polar bears to the brink of extinction within 100 years, study says

How does the study relate to the Endangered Species Act?

The study also has policy implications because it allows a formal assessment of how future proposed actions would impact polar bears.

Researchers believe it overcomes a legal roadblock in the Endangered Species Act that prevented the federal government from considering climate change when evaluating projects like oil and gas drilling.

The Department of Interior has said greenhouse gas emissions can’t be considered when evaluating a project’s effects on endangered species unless its emissions impact could be distinguished from historic global emissions.

“What’s really relevant for policy is emissions,” rather than atmospheric concentrations, said Bitz.

A young female polar bear on the island of Svalbard wanders the meltwater channels on the sea ice.
A young female polar bear on the island of Svalbard wanders the meltwater channels on the sea ice.

Study lead author Steven Amstrup of Polar Bear International said, “I consider this the most important paper of my career. It helps explain recently observed population trends, overcomes a stumbling block in U.S. policy, and can inform other countries considering development projects – finally giving polar bears the protection they need.”

Amstrup also believes the methodology used in the new study can be applied to many other species, such as sea turtles or coral reefs.

Bitz said that “I hope the U.S. government fulfills its legal obligation to protect polar bears by limiting greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. I hope investments are made into fossil fuel alternatives that exist today, and to discover new technologies that avoid greenhouse gas emissions.”

The study was published in the journal Science.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. Now they know how bad.

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY – September 1, 2023

There is a link between global warming and polar bears after all. And it’s not a good one.

According to a new study released Thursday, for the first time, scientists can measure the impact that greenhouse gas emissions have on polar bear cub survival. This is key because although scientists have known for years that a lack of sea ice could be devastating for polar bears, there was no methodology in place to quantify the specific effect that human-caused climate change had on the iconic species.

“Until now, scientists hadn’t offered the quantitative evidence to relate greenhouse gas emissions to population decline,” said study co-author Cecilia Bitz, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, in a statement.

Sea ice decline could eventually lead to extinction

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane are produced from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal. Those gases have warmed the world’s atmosphere and oceans and are leading to reduced amounts of sea ice in the Arctic.

Polar bears rely on that sea ice to hunt, and when the ice is absent, they are forced onto land where they cannot find food. As Arctic sea ice declines in response to warming temperatures, polar bears must fast for longer periods.

Researchers estimated the relationship between how long bears fasted and each gigaton of cumulative emissions.

Scientists have said most polar bears could become extinct by the end of the century unless warming is curbed.

More: Climate change may push polar bears to the brink of extinction within 100 years, study says

How does the study relate to the Endangered Species Act?

The study also has policy implications because it allows a formal assessment of how future proposed actions would impact polar bears.

Researchers believe it overcomes a legal roadblock in the Endangered Species Act that prevented the federal government from considering climate change when evaluating projects like oil and gas drilling.

The Department of Interior has said greenhouse gas emissions can’t be considered when evaluating a project’s effects on endangered species unless its emissions impact could be distinguished from historic global emissions.

“What’s really relevant for policy is emissions,” rather than atmospheric concentrations, said Bitz.

A young female polar bear on the island of Svalbard wanders the meltwater channels on the sea ice.
A young female polar bear on the island of Svalbard wanders the meltwater channels on the sea ice.

Study lead author Steven Amstrup of Polar Bear International said, “I consider this the most important paper of my career. It helps explain recently observed population trends, overcomes a stumbling block in U.S. policy, and can inform other countries considering development projects – finally giving polar bears the protection they need.”

Amstrup also believes the methodology used in the new study can be applied to many other species, such as sea turtles or coral reefs.

Bitz said that “I hope the U.S. government fulfills its legal obligation to protect polar bears by limiting greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. I hope investments are made into fossil fuel alternatives that exist today, and to discover new technologies that avoid greenhouse gas emissions.”

The study was published in the journal Science.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Unrecognizable before-and-after photos show ‘zombie lake’ rising from the grave after years of droughts: ‘It’s been a wild year’

The Cool Down

Unrecognizable before-and-after photos show ‘zombie lake’ rising from the grave after years of droughts: ‘It’s been a wild year’

Jeremiah Budin – September 1, 2023

California has increasingly seen extreme weather in recent years — the state has experienced destructive wildfires as well as both severe droughts and floods.

However, there could be some good news from the wildly fluctuating weather in the Golden State. As a result of record levels of rain and snowpack this winter, some drought-stricken “zombie lakes” appear to have come back to life.

Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, two of the largest reservoirs in the state, are 86% full, according to data compiled by the Los Angeles Times. That’s a drastic increase from late last year when they were only 35% full.

And if those numbers aren’t shocking enough, the pictures tell the story even better. Photos of Lake Shasta taken in September 2021 show what appears to be a bone-dry valley.

Pictures taken from the exact same spot in April 2023 show a vast landscape. The difference between the two images is so stark that you might not even realize they were the same location if it weren’t for the bridge running through the middle of both photos.

Similar images exist of Lake Oroville, with the difference between them being just as stark.

“It’s been a wild year,” Fresno County farmer David “Mas” Masumoto told The Washington Post. “We forget, November and December, it looked like another drought. We all braced for that and planned for that.”

Instead, farmers have actually been able to rely on canals and irrigation ditches for water instead of being forced to pump groundwater, further depleting resources.

Scientists predict, according to the Post, that this is simply the future of California’s climate — years of drought interspersed with extremely wet years like 2023. One of the state’s main challenges now is figuring out how to capture the maximum amount of rainwater when the wet seasons do come.

The weather changes in California align with the climate science maxim of “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” that describes the phenomenon where all types of weather become more extreme as changes to our planet’s climates occur.

It is probably not the best plan to hope that climate change simply evens itself out, but at least for now, California has been given a reprieve from its years of devastating drought.

The Sunbelt was the retirement destination of choice. That was before climate change

CNN – Opinion:

The Sunbelt was the retirement destination of choice. That was before climate change

Deborah Carr, Ian Sue Wing and Giacomo Falchetta – September 1, 2023

Editor’s note: Deborah Carr is a professor of sociology at Boston University and director of its Center of Innovation in Social Science. She is the author of “Aging in America.” Ian Sue Wing is a professor of earth and environment at Boston University specializing in climate change economics and integrated assessment modeling. Giacomo Falchetta is a research scholar with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Italy. The views expressed in this commentary are their own. Read more opinion at CNN.

Retiree Jeanne Langan Burris, 61, a resident of Naples, Florida, often starts her daily tennis match at 7 a.m. Even at that early hour, however, she says she sometimes finds herself baking on the court in triple-digit temperatures.

The torrid heat is a far cry from Westport, Connecticut, where Burris and her husband raised their three children. It’s even further removed from Buffalo, New York — a city renowned for blizzards and brutally cold temperatures — where she grew up.

Deborah Carr - Courtesy Deborah Carr
Deborah Carr – Courtesy Deborah Carr

Burris still loves life in southwest Florida, where she moved a half-dozen years ago to be nearer her aging parents, but climate change has brought challenges. Naples is said to be one of the US cities most likely to suffer the loss of home and property because of rising sea levels. And because of the intense heat, Burris said, “I change two or three times a day,” she said.

Ian Sue Wing - Courtesy Ian Sue Wing
Ian Sue Wing – Courtesy Ian Sue Wing

The summer of 2023 continues to punish Naples – and huge swaths of the United States – with furnace-like weather. Triple-digit heat afflicted tens of millions of people across the center of the country this summer and may prove to be a permanent feature of life in the Sunbelt.

Giacomo Falchetta - Courtesy Giacomo Falchetta
Giacomo Falchetta – Courtesy Giacomo Falchetta

July and August, which saw the hottest summer on record in the US, were particularly brutal in the southern and southwestern states. And week upon week of blisteringly hot weather is especially worrisome for older adults, many of whom chose to relocate to Sunbelt regions in search of balmy winter weather – never counting on the dangerously elevated summer heat that has come with climate change.

Visions of ditching the wearying (and potentially dangerous) task of shoveling snow from their driveways have long attracted retirees to places like Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas and South Carolina, which are the most popular retirement magnets. But older adults in the Sunbelt got warmer weather than they bargained for.

The record-breaking heat waves of summer 2023 (not to mention the already established pattern of temperature records tumbling summer after summer in recent years) has made these localities seem like “hell on earth,” in the words of one unhoused resident of Phoenix who found himself at the mercy of the unrelenting heat.

In Phoenix, 110-degree-plus temperatures continued for an astonishing 31 consecutive days. Arizona is not alone: El Paso, Texas, saw 44 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures, and the heat index in Miami topped 100 degrees for 46 straight days. Many people find respite indoors in air conditioning of course, but part of the appeal of retirement is being able to stroll and do sports out-of-doors – something that this summer’s stifling heat has made all but impossible.

Organizations and professionals who help retirees plan their golden years have begun counseling that they toss out the old retirement playbook and consider retiring in places where the effects of global warming have so far been less pronounced.

We’re not just talking about personal comfort. Extreme heat is miserable for everyone, but can be particularly lethal for older adults. More than half of the two dozen people who died of heat-related causes in Maricopa County, Arizona, this summer were 65 or older. Heat stress is especially harmful to older people, worsening common health conditions like heart, lung and kidney disease, and even triggering delirium. Poor air quality makes it hard to breathe, especially for those who already struggle with shortness of breath. Even temperatures as low as 80 degrees can be dangerous for older people with underlying health problems.

Prescription medications make older people even more sensitive to heat: Anticholinergics — a class of drugs prescribed for gastrointestinal conditions, COPD and other ailments — reduce their capacity to sweat and cool down, while beta-blockers and diuretics can cause dehydration.

Meanwhile, being confined to an air-conditioned apartment for days on end can leave older adults depressed and isolated. High energy bills that go along with the air conditioning that makes life bearable in warmer climates can also be a significant burden for those living on a fixed income. And seniors with limited physical mobility may find it difficult to travel to a public cooling center — if they are lucky enough to have one nearby.

Will heat waves like the summer of 2023 scare away older adults from southern retirement destinations over the long haul? Or will retirees continue to flock to places like Florida and Arizona in the hope that the summer 2023 swelter is a fluke — and prioritize other enticements like recreational amenities and a low cost of living? The jury is still out, but we urge older adults to seriously factor climate issues into their relocation plans. Our research shows that Sunbelt heat extremes — a direct consequence of human-induced climate change — are here to stay.

If older adults continue to migrate to Arizona, Florida and desert regions of California, the dual forces of rising temperatures and aging populations will place unprecedented demands on cities, counties and states to meet older adults’ pressing health needs. That includes investing in conveniently located cooling centers and training first responders to work with adults who may be reluctant to leave their homes during a heat wave or other weather emergency.

One the other heand, should older adults living in cooler locales like New England, the Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest stay put to avoid the heat extremes of the Sunbelt? Not necessarily. Northern climates may be cooler, but they are actually heating up faster. Chronic exposure of populations to heat, measured by an indicator called person-degree days, will triple nationwide by 2050 — but will increase by five times in the Mid-Atlantic and upper midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin, and a factor of six in New England.

Our research focused on heat exposure only, but climate change drives other extreme weather events, such as droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding and intense blizzards. Resources like Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation provides helpful weather-related information on potential retirement destinations.

Retirees also should research whether a potential future home state has a well-developed climate plan that considers older adults’ distinctive needs. Does your ideal destination have heat and/or weather advisory warning systems? Does your dream neighborhood have cooling (or warming) centers close by? Are there urban green spaces like parks that can protect against the urban “heat island” effect? Could you access supports like Low Income Home Energy Assistance Programs for hardening your home against weather extremes?

In the future, city planners and policymakers must prepare to face the twin challenges of climate change impacts and population aging by investing in knowledge, capacity and infrastructure for adaptation.

The climate system’s inertia means that warming is inevitable, with potential effects nationwide. Careful research and planning can help retirees find a home where they can live out their golden years in relative safety and comfort.

Ta’Kiya Young’s family calls for charges against the officer who killed the pregnant Black woman

Associated Press

Ta’Kiya Young’s family calls for charges against the officer who killed the pregnant Black woman

Samantha Hendrickson – September 1, 2023

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio authorities on Friday released bodycam video showing a police officer fatally shooting Ta’Kiya Young in her car in what her family denounced as a “gross misuse of power and authority” against the pregnant Black mother.

Sean Walton, an attorney representing Young’s family, said the video clearly shows that the Aug. 24 shooting of the 21-year-old woman was unjustified and he called for the officer to be fired and charged immediately. Walton also criticized police for not releasing the video footage for more than a week after the shooting.

“Ta’Kiya’s family is heartbroken,” Walton said in an interview with The Associated Press. “The video did nothing but confirm their fears that Ta’Kiya was murdered unjustifiably … and it was just heartbreaking for them to see Ta’Kiya having her life taken away under such ridiculous circumstances.”

A spokesman for the police union said calls to charge the officer before an investigation is complete are premature. The officer is on paid administrative leave while the Ohio Bureau of Criminal Investigation examines the shooting, which is standard practice. A second officer who was on the scene has returned to active duty. Their names, races and ranks have not been released.

Blendon Township Police Chief John Belford called the shooting a tragedy.

“Ms. Young’s family is understandably very upset and grieving,” he said in a written statement released Friday morning. “While none of us can fully understand the depths of their pain, all of us can remember them in our prayers and give them the time and space to deal with this heartbreaking turn of events.”

Young’s death follows a troubling series of fatal shootings of Black adults and children by Ohio police and numerous occurrences of police brutality against Black people across the nation in recent years, events that have prompted widespread protests and demands for police reform.

Young’s father, grandmother and other relatives watched the video before its public release and released a statement Friday through Walton.

“It is undeniable that Ta’Kiya’s death was not only avoidable, but also a gross misuse of power and authority,” the statement said. While viewing the video, the family felt “a lot of anger, a lot of frustration,” Walton told The Associated Press.

“More than anything, there was … a sense of just devastation, to know that this power system, these police officers, could stop her and so quickly take her life for no justifiable reason.”

The video shows an officer at the driver’s side window telling Young she has been accused of theft and repeatedly demanding that she get out of the car. A second officer is standing in front of the car.

Young protests, and the first officer repeats his demand. Young then turns the steering wheel to her right and the car moves toward the officer standing in front of it, who fires his gun through the windshield. Young’s sedan then drifts into the grocery store’s brick wall.

Officers then break the driver’s side window, which Belford said was to get Young out of the car and render medical aid, though footage of medical assistance was not provided.

In his interview with the AP on Friday, Walton denied that Young had stolen anything from the grocery store. He said his firm found a witness who saw Young put down bottles of alcohol as she left the store.

“The bottles were left in the store,” he said. “So when she’s in her car denying that, that’s accurate. She did not commit any theft, and so these officers were not even within their right to place her under arrest, let alone take her life.”

Brian Steel, executive vice president of the union representing Blendon Township police, called Walton a “modern-day ambulance chaser” and criticized his characterization of the shooting as a murder while the investigation is still ongoing and all of the facts have yet to be established.

Steel said in a phone interview that the case will almost certainly be presented to a grand jury for a decision on whether to file charges against the officer, but he declined to say whether Young’s death was justified. “The fact is (the officer) had to make a split-second decision while in front of a moving vehicle, a 2,000-pound weapon,” he said.

Responding to criticism of the delay in releasing the video, Belford said it took time for his small staff to process it and properly redact certain footage, such as officers’ faces and badge numbers, in accordance with Ohio law.

He said the officers’ names cannot be released at this point because they are being treated as assault victims. He said one of the officer’s arms was still partially in the driver’s side window and a second officer was still standing in front of the car when Young moved the car forward.

Young’s death is one of numerous deaths of Black adults and children at the hands of police across the nation that have drawn protests and demands for more accountability. Among the most prominent cases was George Floyd’s death on May 25, 2020. Floyd died after then-Minneapolis police Officer Derek Chauvin, who is white, pressed a knee on his neck for 9 1/2 minutes on the street outside a convenience store where Floyd tried to pass a counterfeit $20 bill. Chauvin was convicted of second-degree murder.

In Ohio, Donovan Lewis was lying on his bed in August 2022 when he was shot by a K-9 officer serving a warrant. Ma’Khia Bryant, a 16-year-old girl in foster care who was accused of swinging at two people with a knife, was fatally shot in April 2021, minutes before the guilty verdict was announced for the Minnesota police involved in the death of George Floyd. In December 2020, Casey Goodson Jr., was shot five times in the back by a Franklin County sheriff’s deputy.

Ohio Families Unite for Political Action and Change, a grassroots organization focused on eradicating police brutality, said the footage shows officers’ conduct was “violent, defenseless, and egregious” and that they acted as “judge, jury and executioner.”

“We are in pain for her family, our community, and all families impacted by police brutality who are re-traumatized upon viewing yet another murder by police in Ohio,” the group said in a statement emailed to the AP.

Young was expected to give birth to a daughter in November. Family and friends held a private vigil a day after Young was killed, releasing balloons and lighting candles spelling out “RIP Kiya.” An online effort to pay her funeral expenses has raised over $7,000.

Ta’Kiya’s siblings, cousins, grandmother and father have rallied around her sons, 6-year-old Ja’Kobie and 3-year-old Ja’Kenlie, who don’t yet understand the magnitude of what happened to their mother, Walton said.

“It’s a large family and Ta’Kiya has been snatched away from them,” Walton said. “I think the entire family is still in shock.”

Young’s grandmother, Nadine Young, described her granddaughter as a family-oriented prankster who was a loving older sister and mother.

“She was so excited to have this little girl,” the grandmother said at a news conference Wednesday. “She has her two little boys, but she was so fired up to have this girl. She is going to be so missed.”

“I’m a mess because it’s just tragic,” she said, “but it should have never ever ever happened.”

Associated Press writers Aaron Morrison in New York; Maryclaire Dale in Philadelphia; Michael Rubinkam in northeastern Pennsylvania; and video journalist Patrick Orsagos in Columbus contributed to this report.

Samantha Hendrickson is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

Florida’s insurance industry is in flux as Idalia cleanup begins

NBC News

Florida’s insurance industry is in flux as Idalia cleanup begins

Rob Wile, Gabe Gutierrez, Phil McCausland and Melissa Chan September 1, 2023 Growing concerns over Florida’s insurance rates after Hurricane IdaliaScroll back up to restore default view.

CEDAR KEY, Fla. — As cleanup begins in the aftermath of Hurricane Idalia, the storm has served as a stark reminder that Florida’s insurance industry remains in flux.

Idalia made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend just before 8 a.m. Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane. It killed at least three people in Florida before it battered Georgia and other states on the East Coast as a downgraded tropical storm.

Idalia moved offshore Thursday morning, leaving around 330,000 customers without power in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

Powerful storms have regularly pummeled Florida’s coastal communities in recent years. The hurricanes have brought high winds, lashing rains and deadly storm surge. Idalia brought much of the same, and it has forced many homeowners to turn to their insurance policies in hope that repairing their homes and replacing their belongings might be covered.

But many of those homeowners face uncertainty amid the upheaval that has emerged in Florida’s insurance industry in recent years.

Image: Buddy Ellison, left, and his father Dan look through debris scattered across their property in Horseshoe Beach, Fla., on Aug. 31, 2023, one day after the passage of Hurricane Idalia. (Rebecca Blackwell / AP)
Image: Buddy Ellison, left, and his father Dan look through debris scattered across their property in Horseshoe Beach, Fla., on Aug. 31, 2023, one day after the passage of Hurricane Idalia. (Rebecca Blackwell / AP)

A thinning insurance market that is beset by more regular hurricanes has caused insurance policy costs to skyrocket. An average home premium in Florida is about $6,000 per year, according to the Insurance Information Institute, an industry trade organization. The U.S. average is about $1,700.

The state’s insurance industry is preparing to lose four insurers since last year — among them: Farmers Insurance, Bankers Insurance and Lexington Insurance. Farmers Insurance announced just last month that it intends to leave Florida, affecting about 100,000 policy holders, and that it would not be writing new policies.

Still, it appears Florida is better-positioned to handle insurance claims than it was last year after the state’s insurers acquired adequate levels of reinsurance — a reimbursement system that insulates insurers from very high claims.

Image: Burned rubble where a house stood after a power transformer explosion in the community of Signal Cove in Hudson, Fla., on Aug. 30, 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. (Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo / AFP - Getty Images)
Image: Burned rubble where a house stood after a power transformer explosion in the community of Signal Cove in Hudson, Fla., on Aug. 30, 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. (Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo / AFP – Getty Images)

“With all the weather and hurricane events that have come through, the reinsurance market has hardened on the Florida insurance companies,” said Chris Draghi, who specializes in the state’s insurance market as an associate director at AM Best, a global credit agency. “That’s led to material increases and reinsurance costs, which, of course, then strain bottom line results to afford the same level of protections as in the past.”

That could mean that, as the costs for insurers rise further, Floridians’ premiums will be affected.

Gregory Buck, the president and owner of National Risk Experts Insurance, based in Florida, said that his company’s premiums last year were four times the national average but that those prices are largely based on reinsurers. He expects rates to increase further.

“If you look at year on year for the last three to five years, you’re probably talking about between 100 and 300% (in insurance cost increases) depending on where you are and obviously the age and the construction of the homes themselves” Buck said by email. “But absolutely, we are looking at more increases.”

Image: The remains of a destroyed home built atop a platform on piles are seen in Keaton Beach, Fla., during a flight provided by mediccorps.org, following the passage of Hurricane Idalia, on Aug. 30, 2023. (Rebecca Blackwell / AP)
Image: The remains of a destroyed home built atop a platform on piles are seen in Keaton Beach, Fla., during a flight provided by mediccorps.org, following the passage of Hurricane Idalia, on Aug. 30, 2023. (Rebecca Blackwell / AP)

Homeowners in the state said they expect the cost to jump once again, which has led some to consider going without insurance because of the price.

Aimee Firestine stood outside her hotel, the Faraway Inn, in Cedar Key as she said her homeowners insurance rate doubled last year. She said it has left her “thinking about whether you can keep paying for that.”

“That’s one of the issues in Florida is Mother Nature does what it wants and we have to just rebuild and hope insurance can help us out with it,” Firestine said.

The cost of insurance policies could be a major contributing reason that as many as 15% of Florida homeowners are living without property insurance. That is the highest percentage in the country, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

In Florida, 16 severe storms or hurricanes since 2020 have caused $100 billion to $200 billion in damage. That has pushed many in the state to turn to Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the state-backed insurer of last resort, which has quickly become Florida’s fastest-growing insurer.

The company now has more than 1.4 million policies, centered largely in southeast Florida, up precipitously from 500,000 in 2019. It now covers roughly 1 in 8 Florida households.

It is a reflection of how private insurers have left the state as the storms walloping Florida grow in number and strength, said Amy Bach, the executive director of United Policyholders, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group. Because the agency is a state-run entity, it could also have an effect on taxpayer dollars.

“As they retreat and government is having an increasing role, that basically translates into taxpayers,” Bach said. “So really, we’re talking about a huge shift in risk-bearing from the private sector to the public, and it’s a big deal.”

Four new insurance companies will join the Florida market next year after legislative reforms designed to promote market stability were passed and signed into law, which could help address the problem. It is unclear, however, what market share the companies might be able to soak up or what their rates might be.

Image: A flooded house is seen in Crystal River, Fla., on Aug. 31, 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. (Chandan Khanna / AFP - Getty Images)
Image: A flooded house is seen in Crystal River, Fla., on Aug. 31, 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. (Chandan Khanna / AFP – Getty Images)

Aggravating the problem, 82% of Floridians do not have flood insurance, which is typically operated by the National Flood Insurance Program, a federal program run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Congress created the program in 1968 because of a similar issue — the lack of private insurers in flood-prone areas.

Analysts and experts said few people purchase flood insurance because many do not realize that most homeowners or hurricane policies do not cover flooding, even though hurricanes are a key threat to Florida’s low-lying areas.

Hundreds of thousands of Florida homes lie in flood-risk areas that are not designated as such by the federal government, leaving many homeowners vulnerable to massive out-of-pocket costs for damage after hurricanes.

More than 785,000 properties in the state face flood hazards but are not recognized as high risks in FEMA’s flood maps, according to data from the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research group.

The First Street Foundation said that it factors in heavy rainfall, the impact of small waterways’ flooding and climate change and that it updates its models annually, while FEMA does not. On its website, FEMA said it “consistently releases new flood maps and data, giving communities across America access to helpful, authoritative data that they can use to make decisions about flood risk.”

Meanwhile, Mark Friedlander, a spokesman for the Insurance Information Institute, said Florida has major flood events year-round.

“We’re going to see very significant flood losses from the hurricane this week, and only a small percentage of homeowners have that coverage,” he said.

In Taylor County, where Idalia made landfall, for example, only 5.4% of homeowners have flood insurance, Friedlander said. The county, in the Big Bend area of Florida, is home to about 21,000 people, according to the latest census data.

“That entire community is under water,” Friedlander said.

Gabe Gutierrez reported from Cedar Key. Phil McCausland and Melissa Chan reported from New York City.