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‘The Old Farmer’s Almanac’ Predicts That Winter Will Be Frigid and Snowy Everywhere But Here

Country Living

‘The Old Farmer’s Almanac’ Predicts That Winter Will Be Frigid and Snowy Everywhere But Here

Karla Walsh – September 1, 2023

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Since 1792, when Robert B. Thomas founded his publication The Old Farmer’s Almanac, the brand has been releasing long-long-term seasonal forecasts.

These conjectures are based on a formula that combines old methods like solar science and the study of sunspots (magnetic storms on the sun’s surface, which were once thought to affect conditions on Earth), with new ones, such as climatology and the study of weather patterns, meteorology, and the atmosphere.

Admittedly, many meteorologists believe that you can’t reliably trust a forecast beyond 10 days. However, with a self-reported 80 percent accuracy average, there’s something tempting about taking a peek about the Almanac’s predictions to see if we can tell the meteorological future.

So what’s ahead for around the next solstice, December 21, 2023? The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2023-2024 Winter Forecast claims to have our answers. Apparently, it’s a wise idea to have your coat and mittens ready, because “the 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts snow, seasonable cold, and all of winter’s delights,” the authors explain. “This winter’s forecast is sure to excite snow bunnies and sweater lovers alike, promising a whole lot of cold and snow across North America!”

In nearly all snow-prone parts of the country, expect higher-than-usual rates of snowfall, with an early start and late end to flurry season. Alongside the frosty scenery, you can anticipate colder-than-common temps. Central and Eastern states might be blasted with another frigid polar vortex this winter. In fact, “only snowy New England and the Atlantic Corridor will enjoy winter temperatures which are milder than what’s typical for their regions,” the Almanac says.

<p><a href= — Shop NowThe 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanacamazon.com$8.22More

In the Deep South, Texas, and California, rain will prevail, and residents along the majority of the Eastern coastline may experience a mix of mild and cool temps. The Pacific Northwest is one region that’s expected to remain “relatively dry and cold throughout the season.”

If you’re curious about what the crystal ball says about your particular locale, check out this region-by-number map to determine where you land. Then check out your specific weather prediction below. (Psst…we’ve called out all the spots where you may be able to look forward to a white Christmas, in case sledding, snowball fights, or simply feeling like you’re sitting inside a snowglobe are treasured parts of your holiday traditions.)

Region 1: Northeast — “The snowiest stretches occur in mid-to late November, mid-December and early to mid-January,” the Almanac says. Overall, the temps appear to be tracking above normal, with chilly spurts in mid- to late November, early to mid-January, and early to mid-February.
Region 2: Atlantic Corridor — Snowfall is expected to be 2 to 3 inches above monthly averages, with the snowiest parts of the season at the tail end of December, late January, and mid-February. Temperatures should be above normal, except for a cold spell from late January to the middle of February.
Region 3: Appalachians — You may notice above-normal overall precipitation and snowfall, however. As far as the mercury levels, they are on track to be just below average.
Region 4: Southeast — While it’s unlikely to be a white Christmas, it might be a wet one, folks! Overall precipitation rates seem higher than usual, as do temps, which are expected to be mild and slightly above normal.
Region 5: Florida — Wet and mild rules the day for most of the state (except the dryer south). Snowbirds will be happy to hear that Florida’s winter temps are anticipated to be milder than usual this year.
Region 6: Lower Lakes — North of I-90, Santa might bring you a white Christmas! Beyond that, the snowy, colder-than-average periods are expected for late January through mid-February.
Region 7: Ohio Valley — With a wetter and colder than usual winter on the horizon, residents can look forward to a snowy week around Hanukkah and Christmas. “The coldest spells will occur in late December, early January, and late January through mid-February,” the authors say.
Region 8: Deep South — Get your rain boots ready; you’ll need them for much of the wet and mild yet colder-than-common season. The chilliest times are forecasted for late December, early and late January, as well as early February.
Region 9: Upper Midwest — Go ahead and start dreaming of a white Christmas, because the authors claim that this is one of the few regions that is expected to entirely be treated to a fluffy, white gift on December 25. Winter temps are anticipated to be below normal, especially during the second half of November, the majority of December, the start and end of January, and early February. Snowfall is also expected to be above normal rates.

Region 10: Heartland — Keep that scarf handy. The forecast for this region includes colder than normal climate. You can also anticipate a white Christmas, with winter’s snowy peak from late December to mid-January.
Region 11: Texas-Oklahoma — With just a bit more precipitation and temps leaning ever so colder in the north but warmer in the south, conditions are looking about on par for the course in these states.
Region 12: High Plains — Precipitation and snowfall will be a bit higher than most years, and “it will be extra cold,” the Almanac explains, with the glacial temps foreshadowed for late November, late December, and early to mid-January.
Region 13: Intermountain — Who’s ready for some soup? Temps are prophesied to be an estimated 4° F below average, and “we’re looking at above-normal snowfall. The snowiest periods will be in mid- to late November, early and late January, and mid-February,” the authors claim. “Expect a white Christmas!”
Region 14: Desert Southwest — In parts of this region that typically receive snow, folks can await more flakes than normal, with the snowiest times during the second half of January and mid-February. Temps will be cooler than usual, especially in late November, at the start and end of December, and throughout late January.
Region 15: Pacific Northwest — Although this region is known for its frequently dreary conditions, residents can look forward to a colder yet drier-than-normal winter. The coldest weeks will fall in mid-November, late December, and mid-January.
Region 16: Pacific Southwest — It’s going to be a wet, stormy, and cold season, with the most precip predicted during early and late January, early to mid-February, and mid-March.
Region 17: Alaska — With a white Christmas and snowier-than-usual season ahead, you may guess that it will also be a frigid season. But the Almanac claims that temps should be about 4° F above average.
Region 18: Hawaii — Rainy and mild is the M.O. for the islands, the Almanac predicts. “Expect the stormiest periods in early November in the east and early January and mid-February.”

Exxon Mobil Predicts Climate Efforts Will Fail

Futurism

Exxon Mobil Predicts Climate Efforts Will Fail

Maggie Harrison – September 1, 2023

Pexximist Mobil

According to Exxon Mobil, oil giant and one of the more prominent architects of our planet’s fossil fuel-laden doom, humanity is likely to fail its climate goals of halting a global temperature rise of two degrees Celsius by 2050.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, Exxon published its grim prediction in a Monday climate report, effectively arguing that while global climate change efforts have made some progress — CO2 emissions caused by world fossil fuel consumption, the company posits, will fall by 25 billion metric tons by 2050, which will mark a 26 percent decrease from this decade’s “peak of 34 billion,” according to the WSJ — it simply won’t be enough to curb that dreaded two-degree global temperature uptick.

“An energy transition is underway,” reads the Exxon report, according to Reuters, “but it is not yet happening at the scale or on the timetable required to achieve society’s net-zero ambitions.”

Very bleak! And yet, according to the WSJ, Exxon also, in the very same report, argued that fossil fuels are conveniently still necessary to power worldwide economic growth.

“Fossil fuels remain the most effective way,” said the oil producer, “to produce the massive amounts of energy needed to create and support the manufacturing, commercial transportation, and industrial sectors that drive modern economies.”

Great. Thanks for nothing.

Cigarette Marketing

We really can’t stress enough how ludicrous it is to receive such dismal climate projections from Exxon specifically. To back up for a second: in 2015, an investigation revealed that executives at Exxon were made aware of the threat of greenhouse gas-caused climate change back in 1977, long before the public knew anything about it. They chose to ignore the risk, even spending millions to launch a long series of climate misinformation campaigns. Today, as the WSJ notes, the company is currently embroiled in a number of lawsuits related to climate deception.

That’s all to say that this latest report feels much like the cigarette lobby publishing a memo declaring that people are still dying from lung cancer, before turning around and explaining why cigarettes are still super useful and necessary long-term for social progress, actually. (Indeed, there are a lot of similarities between the cigarette lobby and oil giants.) And in June of this year, it’s worth noting, Exxon and Chevron shareholders rejected a series of proposals aimed to further limit emissions.

To Exxon’s credit, it’s probably right. The Earth is in a very bad place — and as long as Exxon’s still making upwards of $56 billion in oil sales annually, hitting our 2050 emissions targets is unlikely.

Scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. Now they know how bad.

USA Today

Scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. Now they know how bad.

Doyle Rice, USA Today – September 1, 2023

There is a link between global warming and polar bears after all. And it’s not a good one.

According to a new study released Thursday, for the first time, scientists can measure the impact that greenhouse gas emissions have on polar bear cub survival. This is key because although scientists have known for years that a lack of sea ice could be devastating for polar bears, there was no methodology in place to quantify the specific effect that human-caused climate change had on the iconic species.

“Until now, scientists hadn’t offered the quantitative evidence to relate greenhouse gas emissions to population decline,” said study co-author Cecilia Bitz, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, in a statement.

Sea ice decline could eventually lead to extinction

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane are produced from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal. Those gases have warmed the world’s atmosphere and oceans and are leading to reduced amounts of sea ice in the Arctic.

Polar bears rely on that sea ice to hunt, and when the ice is absent, they are forced onto land where they cannot find food. As Arctic sea ice declines in response to warming temperatures, polar bears must fast for longer periods.

Researchers estimated the relationship between how long bears fasted and each gigaton of cumulative emissions.

Scientists have said most polar bears could become extinct by the end of the century unless warming is curbed.

More: Climate change may push polar bears to the brink of extinction within 100 years, study says

How does the study relate to the Endangered Species Act?

The study also has policy implications because it allows a formal assessment of how future proposed actions would impact polar bears.

Researchers believe it overcomes a legal roadblock in the Endangered Species Act that prevented the federal government from considering climate change when evaluating projects like oil and gas drilling.

The Department of Interior has said greenhouse gas emissions can’t be considered when evaluating a project’s effects on endangered species unless its emissions impact could be distinguished from historic global emissions.

“What’s really relevant for policy is emissions,” rather than atmospheric concentrations, said Bitz.

A young female polar bear on the island of Svalbard wanders the meltwater channels on the sea ice.

Study lead author Steven Amstrup of Polar Bear International said, “I consider this the most important paper of my career. It helps explain recently observed population trends, overcomes a stumbling block in U.S. policy, and can inform other countries considering development projects – finally giving polar bears the protection they need.”

Amstrup also believes the methodology used in the new study can be applied to many other species, such as sea turtles or coral reefs.

Bitz said that “I hope the U.S. government fulfills its legal obligation to protect polar bears by limiting greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. I hope investments are made into fossil fuel alternatives that exist today, and to discover new technologies that avoid greenhouse gas emissions.”

The study was published in the journal Science.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. Now they know how bad.

Doyle Rice, USA TODAYFri, September 1, 2023 at 3:14 PM CDT·3 min read95

There is a link between global warming and polar bears after all. And it’s not a good one.

Sea ice decline could eventually lead to extinction

Researchers estimated the relationship between how long bears fasted and each gigaton of cumulative emissions.

Scientists have said most polar bears could become extinct by the end of the century unless warming is curbed.

More: Climate change may push polar bears to the brink of extinction within 100 years, study says

How does the study relate to the Endangered Species Act?

The study also has policy implications because it allows a formal assessment of how future proposed actions would impact polar bears.

“What’s really relevant for policy is emissions,” rather than atmospheric concentrations, said Bitz.

Amstrup also believes the methodology used in the new study can be applied to many other species, such as sea turtles or coral reefs.

The study was published in the journal Science.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Scientists were sure climate change was bad for polar bears. Now they know how bad.

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY – September 1, 2023

There is a link between global warming and polar bears after all. And it’s not a good one.

Sea ice decline could eventually lead to extinction

Researchers estimated the relationship between how long bears fasted and each gigaton of cumulative emissions.

Scientists have said most polar bears could become extinct by the end of the century unless warming is curbed.

More: Climate change may push polar bears to the brink of extinction within 100 years, study says

How does the study relate to the Endangered Species Act?

The study also has policy implications because it allows a formal assessment of how future proposed actions would impact polar bears.

“What’s really relevant for policy is emissions,” rather than atmospheric concentrations, said Bitz.

Amstrup also believes the methodology used in the new study can be applied to many other species, such as sea turtles or coral reefs.

The study was published in the journal Science.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Unrecognizable before-and-after photos show ‘zombie lake’ rising from the grave after years of droughts: ‘It’s been a wild year’

The Cool Down

Unrecognizable before-and-after photos show ‘zombie lake’ rising from the grave after years of droughts: ‘It’s been a wild year’

Jeremiah Budin – September 1, 2023

California has increasingly seen extreme weather in recent years — the state has experienced destructive wildfires as well as both severe droughts and floods.

However, there could be some good news from the wildly fluctuating weather in the Golden State. As a result of record levels of rain and snowpack this winter, some drought-stricken “zombie lakes” appear to have come back to life.

Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, two of the largest reservoirs in the state, are 86% full, according to data compiled by the Los Angeles Times. That’s a drastic increase from late last year when they were only 35% full.

And if those numbers aren’t shocking enough, the pictures tell the story even better. Photos of Lake Shasta taken in September 2021 show what appears to be a bone-dry valley.

Pictures taken from the exact same spot in April 2023 show a vast landscape. The difference between the two images is so stark that you might not even realize they were the same location if it weren’t for the bridge running through the middle of both photos.

Similar images exist of Lake Oroville, with the difference between them being just as stark.

“It’s been a wild year,” Fresno County farmer David “Mas” Masumoto told The Washington Post. “We forget, November and December, it looked like another drought. We all braced for that and planned for that.”

Instead, farmers have actually been able to rely on canals and irrigation ditches for water instead of being forced to pump groundwater, further depleting resources.

Scientists predict, according to the Post, that this is simply the future of California’s climate — years of drought interspersed with extremely wet years like 2023. One of the state’s main challenges now is figuring out how to capture the maximum amount of rainwater when the wet seasons do come.

The weather changes in California align with the climate science maxim of “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” that describes the phenomenon where all types of weather become more extreme as changes to our planet’s climates occur.

It is probably not the best plan to hope that climate change simply evens itself out, but at least for now, California has been given a reprieve from its years of devastating drought.

The Sunbelt was the retirement destination of choice. That was before climate change

CNN – Opinion:

The Sunbelt was the retirement destination of choice. That was before climate change

Deborah Carr, Ian Sue Wing and Giacomo Falchetta – September 1, 2023

Editor’s note: Deborah Carr is a professor of sociology at Boston University and director of its Center of Innovation in Social Science. She is the author of “Aging in America.” Ian Sue Wing is a professor of earth and environment at Boston University specializing in climate change economics and integrated assessment modeling. Giacomo Falchetta is a research scholar with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Italy. The views expressed in this commentary are their own. Read more opinion at CNN.

Retiree Jeanne Langan Burris, 61, a resident of Naples, Florida, often starts her daily tennis match at 7 a.m. Even at that early hour, however, she says she sometimes finds herself baking on the court in triple-digit temperatures.

The torrid heat is a far cry from Westport, Connecticut, where Burris and her husband raised their three children. It’s even further removed from Buffalo, New York — a city renowned for blizzards and brutally cold temperatures — where she grew up.

Deborah Carr - Courtesy Deborah Carr — Deborah Carr – Courtesy Deborah Carr

Burris still loves life in southwest Florida, where she moved a half-dozen years ago to be nearer her aging parents, but climate change has brought challenges. Naples is said to be one of the US cities most likely to suffer the loss of home and property because of rising sea levels. And because of the intense heat, Burris said, “I change two or three times a day,” she said.

Ian Sue Wing - Courtesy Ian Sue Wing — Ian Sue Wing – Courtesy Ian Sue Wing

The summer of 2023 continues to punish Naples – and huge swaths of the United States – with furnace-like weather. Triple-digit heat afflicted tens of millions of people across the center of the country this summer and may prove to be a permanent feature of life in the Sunbelt.

Giacomo Falchetta - Courtesy Giacomo Falchetta — Giacomo Falchetta – Courtesy Giacomo Falchetta

July and August, which saw the hottest summer on record in the US, were particularly brutal in the southern and southwestern states. And week upon week of blisteringly hot weather is especially worrisome for older adults, many of whom chose to relocate to Sunbelt regions in search of balmy winter weather – never counting on the dangerously elevated summer heat that has come with climate change.

Visions of ditching the wearying (and potentially dangerous) task of shoveling snow from their driveways have long attracted retirees to places like Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas and South Carolina, which are the most popular retirement magnets. But older adults in the Sunbelt got warmer weather than they bargained for.

The record-breaking heat waves of summer 2023 (not to mention the already established pattern of temperature records tumbling summer after summer in recent years) has made these localities seem like “hell on earth,” in the words of one unhoused resident of Phoenix who found himself at the mercy of the unrelenting heat.

In Phoenix, 110-degree-plus temperatures continued for an astonishing 31 consecutive days. Arizona is not alone: El Paso, Texas, saw 44 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures, and the heat index in Miami topped 100 degrees for 46 straight days. Many people find respite indoors in air conditioning of course, but part of the appeal of retirement is being able to stroll and do sports out-of-doors – something that this summer’s stifling heat has made all but impossible.

Organizations and professionals who help retirees plan their golden years have begun counseling that they toss out the old retirement playbook and consider retiring in places where the effects of global warming have so far been less pronounced.

We’re not just talking about personal comfort. Extreme heat is miserable for everyone, but can be particularly lethal for older adults. More than half of the two dozen people who died of heat-related causes in Maricopa County, Arizona, this summer were 65 or older. Heat stress is especially harmful to older people, worsening common health conditions like heart, lung and kidney disease, and even triggering delirium. Poor air quality makes it hard to breathe, especially for those who already struggle with shortness of breath. Even temperatures as low as 80 degrees can be dangerous for older people with underlying health problems.

Prescription medications make older people even more sensitive to heat: Anticholinergics — a class of drugs prescribed for gastrointestinal conditions, COPD and other ailments — reduce their capacity to sweat and cool down, while beta-blockers and diuretics can cause dehydration.

Meanwhile, being confined to an air-conditioned apartment for days on end can leave older adults depressed and isolated. High energy bills that go along with the air conditioning that makes life bearable in warmer climates can also be a significant burden for those living on a fixed income. And seniors with limited physical mobility may find it difficult to travel to a public cooling center — if they are lucky enough to have one nearby.

Will heat waves like the summer of 2023 scare away older adults from southern retirement destinations over the long haul? Or will retirees continue to flock to places like Florida and Arizona in the hope that the summer 2023 swelter is a fluke — and prioritize other enticements like recreational amenities and a low cost of living? The jury is still out, but we urge older adults to seriously factor climate issues into their relocation plans. Our research shows that Sunbelt heat extremes — a direct consequence of human-induced climate change — are here to stay.

If older adults continue to migrate to Arizona, Florida and desert regions of California, the dual forces of rising temperatures and aging populations will place unprecedented demands on cities, counties and states to meet older adults’ pressing health needs. That includes investing in conveniently located cooling centers and training first responders to work with adults who may be reluctant to leave their homes during a heat wave or other weather emergency.

One the other heand, should older adults living in cooler locales like New England, the Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest stay put to avoid the heat extremes of the Sunbelt? Not necessarily. Northern climates may be cooler, but they are actually heating up faster. Chronic exposure of populations to heat, measured by an indicator called person-degree days, will triple nationwide by 2050 — but will increase by five times in the Mid-Atlantic and upper midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin, and a factor of six in New England.

Our research focused on heat exposure only, but climate change drives other extreme weather events, such as droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding and intense blizzards. Resources like Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation provides helpful weather-related information on potential retirement destinations.

Retirees also should research whether a potential future home state has a well-developed climate plan that considers older adults’ distinctive needs. Does your ideal destination have heat and/or weather advisory warning systems? Does your dream neighborhood have cooling (or warming) centers close by? Are there urban green spaces like parks that can protect against the urban “heat island” effect? Could you access supports like Low Income Home Energy Assistance Programs for hardening your home against weather extremes?

In the future, city planners and policymakers must prepare to face the twin challenges of climate change impacts and population aging by investing in knowledge, capacity and infrastructure for adaptation.

The climate system’s inertia means that warming is inevitable, with potential effects nationwide. Careful research and planning can help retirees find a home where they can live out their golden years in relative safety and comfort.

Ta’Kiya Young’s family calls for charges against the officer who killed the pregnant Black woman

Associated Press

Ta’Kiya Young’s family calls for charges against the officer who killed the pregnant Black woman

Samantha Hendrickson – September 1, 2023

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio authorities on Friday released bodycam video showing a police officer fatally shooting Ta’Kiya Young in her car in what her family denounced as a “gross misuse of power and authority” against the pregnant Black mother.

Sean Walton, an attorney representing Young’s family, said the video clearly shows that the Aug. 24 shooting of the 21-year-old woman was unjustified and he called for the officer to be fired and charged immediately. Walton also criticized police for not releasing the video footage for more than a week after the shooting.

“Ta’Kiya’s family is heartbroken,” Walton said in an interview with The Associated Press. “The video did nothing but confirm their fears that Ta’Kiya was murdered unjustifiably … and it was just heartbreaking for them to see Ta’Kiya having her life taken away under such ridiculous circumstances.”

A spokesman for the police union said calls to charge the officer before an investigation is complete are premature. The officer is on paid administrative leave while the Ohio Bureau of Criminal Investigation examines the shooting, which is standard practice. A second officer who was on the scene has returned to active duty. Their names, races and ranks have not been released.

Blendon Township Police Chief John Belford called the shooting a tragedy.

“Ms. Young’s family is understandably very upset and grieving,” he said in a written statement released Friday morning. “While none of us can fully understand the depths of their pain, all of us can remember them in our prayers and give them the time and space to deal with this heartbreaking turn of events.”

Young’s death follows a troubling series of fatal shootings of Black adults and children by Ohio police and numerous occurrences of police brutality against Black people across the nation in recent years, events that have prompted widespread protests and demands for police reform.

Young’s father, grandmother and other relatives watched the video before its public release and released a statement Friday through Walton.

“It is undeniable that Ta’Kiya’s death was not only avoidable, but also a gross misuse of power and authority,” the statement said. While viewing the video, the family felt “a lot of anger, a lot of frustration,” Walton told The Associated Press.

“More than anything, there was … a sense of just devastation, to know that this power system, these police officers, could stop her and so quickly take her life for no justifiable reason.”

The video shows an officer at the driver’s side window telling Young she has been accused of theft and repeatedly demanding that she get out of the car. A second officer is standing in front of the car.

Young protests, and the first officer repeats his demand. Young then turns the steering wheel to her right and the car moves toward the officer standing in front of it, who fires his gun through the windshield. Young’s sedan then drifts into the grocery store’s brick wall.

Officers then break the driver’s side window, which Belford said was to get Young out of the car and render medical aid, though footage of medical assistance was not provided.

In his interview with the AP on Friday, Walton denied that Young had stolen anything from the grocery store. He said his firm found a witness who saw Young put down bottles of alcohol as she left the store.

“The bottles were left in the store,” he said. “So when she’s in her car denying that, that’s accurate. She did not commit any theft, and so these officers were not even within their right to place her under arrest, let alone take her life.”

Brian Steel, executive vice president of the union representing Blendon Township police, called Walton a “modern-day ambulance chaser” and criticized his characterization of the shooting as a murder while the investigation is still ongoing and all of the facts have yet to be established.

Steel said in a phone interview that the case will almost certainly be presented to a grand jury for a decision on whether to file charges against the officer, but he declined to say whether Young’s death was justified. “The fact is (the officer) had to make a split-second decision while in front of a moving vehicle, a 2,000-pound weapon,” he said.

Responding to criticism of the delay in releasing the video, Belford said it took time for his small staff to process it and properly redact certain footage, such as officers’ faces and badge numbers, in accordance with Ohio law.

He said the officers’ names cannot be released at this point because they are being treated as assault victims. He said one of the officer’s arms was still partially in the driver’s side window and a second officer was still standing in front of the car when Young moved the car forward.

Young’s death is one of numerous deaths of Black adults and children at the hands of police across the nation that have drawn protests and demands for more accountability. Among the most prominent cases was George Floyd’s death on May 25, 2020. Floyd died after then-Minneapolis police Officer Derek Chauvin, who is white, pressed a knee on his neck for 9 1/2 minutes on the street outside a convenience store where Floyd tried to pass a counterfeit $20 bill. Chauvin was convicted of second-degree murder.

In Ohio, Donovan Lewis was lying on his bed in August 2022 when he was shot by a K-9 officer serving a warrant. Ma’Khia Bryant, a 16-year-old girl in foster care who was accused of swinging at two people with a knife, was fatally shot in April 2021, minutes before the guilty verdict was announced for the Minnesota police involved in the death of George Floyd. In December 2020, Casey Goodson Jr., was shot five times in the back by a Franklin County sheriff’s deputy.

Ohio Families Unite for Political Action and Change, a grassroots organization focused on eradicating police brutality, said the footage shows officers’ conduct was “violent, defenseless, and egregious” and that they acted as “judge, jury and executioner.”

“We are in pain for her family, our community, and all families impacted by police brutality who are re-traumatized upon viewing yet another murder by police in Ohio,” the group said in a statement emailed to the AP.

Young was expected to give birth to a daughter in November. Family and friends held a private vigil a day after Young was killed, releasing balloons and lighting candles spelling out “RIP Kiya.” An online effort to pay her funeral expenses has raised over $7,000.

Ta’Kiya’s siblings, cousins, grandmother and father have rallied around her sons, 6-year-old Ja’Kobie and 3-year-old Ja’Kenlie, who don’t yet understand the magnitude of what happened to their mother, Walton said.

“It’s a large family and Ta’Kiya has been snatched away from them,” Walton said. “I think the entire family is still in shock.”

Young’s grandmother, Nadine Young, described her granddaughter as a family-oriented prankster who was a loving older sister and mother.

“She was so excited to have this little girl,” the grandmother said at a news conference Wednesday. “She has her two little boys, but she was so fired up to have this girl. She is going to be so missed.”

“I’m a mess because it’s just tragic,” she said, “but it should have never ever ever happened.”

Associated Press writers Aaron Morrison in New York; Maryclaire Dale in Philadelphia; Michael Rubinkam in northeastern Pennsylvania; and video journalist Patrick Orsagos in Columbus contributed to this report.

Samantha Hendrickson is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

Florida’s insurance industry is in flux as Idalia cleanup begins

NBC News

Florida’s insurance industry is in flux as Idalia cleanup begins

Rob Wile, Gabe Gutierrez, Phil McCausland and Melissa Chan September 1, 2023 Growing concerns over Florida’s insurance rates after Hurricane Idalia Scroll back up to restore default view.

CEDAR KEY, Fla. — As cleanup begins in the aftermath of Hurricane Idalia, the storm has served as a stark reminder that Florida’s insurance industry remains in flux.

Idalia made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend just before 8 a.m. Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane. It killed at least three people in Florida before it battered Georgia and other states on the East Coast as a downgraded tropical storm.

Idalia moved offshore Thursday morning, leaving around 330,000 customers without power in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

Powerful storms have regularly pummeled Florida’s coastal communities in recent years. The hurricanes have brought high winds, lashing rains and deadly storm surge. Idalia brought much of the same, and it has forced many homeowners to turn to their insurance policies in hope that repairing their homes and replacing their belongings might be covered.

But many of those homeowners face uncertainty amid the upheaval that has emerged in Florida’s insurance industry in recent years.

Image: Buddy Ellison, left, and his father Dan look through debris scattered across their property in Horseshoe Beach, Fla., on Aug. 31, 2023, one day after the passage of Hurricane Idalia. (Rebecca Blackwell / AP)

A thinning insurance market that is beset by more regular hurricanes has caused insurance policy costs to skyrocket. An average home premium in Florida is about $6,000 per year, according to the Insurance Information Institute, an industry trade organization. The U.S. average is about $1,700.

The state’s insurance industry is preparing to lose four insurers since last year — among them: Farmers Insurance, Bankers Insurance and Lexington Insurance. Farmers Insurance announced just last month that it intends to leave Florida, affecting about 100,000 policy holders, and that it would not be writing new policies.

Still, it appears Florida is better-positioned to handle insurance claims than it was last year after the state’s insurers acquired adequate levels of reinsurance — a reimbursement system that insulates insurers from very high claims.

Image: Burned rubble where a house stood after a power transformer explosion in the community of Signal Cove in Hudson, Fla., on Aug. 30, 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. (Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo / AFP - Getty Images) — Image: Burned rubble where a house stood after a power transformer explosion in the community of Signal Cove in Hudson, Fla., on Aug. 30, 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. (Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo / AFP – Getty Images)

“With all the weather and hurricane events that have come through, the reinsurance market has hardened on the Florida insurance companies,” said Chris Draghi, who specializes in the state’s insurance market as an associate director at AM Best, a global credit agency. “That’s led to material increases and reinsurance costs, which, of course, then strain bottom line results to afford the same level of protections as in the past.”

That could mean that, as the costs for insurers rise further, Floridians’ premiums will be affected.

Gregory Buck, the president and owner of National Risk Experts Insurance, based in Florida, said that his company’s premiums last year were four times the national average but that those prices are largely based on reinsurers. He expects rates to increase further.

“If you look at year on year for the last three to five years, you’re probably talking about between 100 and 300% (in insurance cost increases) depending on where you are and obviously the age and the construction of the homes themselves” Buck said by email. “But absolutely, we are looking at more increases.”

Image: The remains of a destroyed home built atop a platform on piles are seen in Keaton Beach, Fla., during a flight provided by mediccorps.org, following the passage of Hurricane Idalia, on Aug. 30, 2023. (Rebecca Blackwell / AP)

Homeowners in the state said they expect the cost to jump once again, which has led some to consider going without insurance because of the price.

Aimee Firestine stood outside her hotel, the Faraway Inn, in Cedar Key as she said her homeowners insurance rate doubled last year. She said it has left her “thinking about whether you can keep paying for that.”

“That’s one of the issues in Florida is Mother Nature does what it wants and we have to just rebuild and hope insurance can help us out with it,” Firestine said.

The cost of insurance policies could be a major contributing reason that as many as 15% of Florida homeowners are living without property insurance. That is the highest percentage in the country, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

In Florida, 16 severe storms or hurricanes since 2020 have caused $100 billion to $200 billion in damage. That has pushed many in the state to turn to Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the state-backed insurer of last resort, which has quickly become Florida’s fastest-growing insurer.

The company now has more than 1.4 million policies, centered largely in southeast Florida, up precipitously from 500,000 in 2019. It now covers roughly 1 in 8 Florida households.

It is a reflection of how private insurers have left the state as the storms walloping Florida grow in number and strength, said Amy Bach, the executive director of United Policyholders, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group. Because the agency is a state-run entity, it could also have an effect on taxpayer dollars.

“As they retreat and government is having an increasing role, that basically translates into taxpayers,” Bach said. “So really, we’re talking about a huge shift in risk-bearing from the private sector to the public, and it’s a big deal.”

Four new insurance companies will join the Florida market next year after legislative reforms designed to promote market stability were passed and signed into law, which could help address the problem. It is unclear, however, what market share the companies might be able to soak up or what their rates might be.

Image: A flooded house is seen in Crystal River, Fla., on Aug. 31, 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. (Chandan Khanna / AFP - Getty Images) — Image: A flooded house is seen in Crystal River, Fla., on Aug. 31, 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. (Chandan Khanna / AFP – Getty Images)

Aggravating the problem, 82% of Floridians do not have flood insurance, which is typically operated by the National Flood Insurance Program, a federal program run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Congress created the program in 1968 because of a similar issue — the lack of private insurers in flood-prone areas.

Analysts and experts said few people purchase flood insurance because many do not realize that most homeowners or hurricane policies do not cover flooding, even though hurricanes are a key threat to Florida’s low-lying areas.

Hundreds of thousands of Florida homes lie in flood-risk areas that are not designated as such by the federal government, leaving many homeowners vulnerable to massive out-of-pocket costs for damage after hurricanes.

More than 785,000 properties in the state face flood hazards but are not recognized as high risks in FEMA’s flood maps, according to data from the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research group.

The First Street Foundation said that it factors in heavy rainfall, the impact of small waterways’ flooding and climate change and that it updates its models annually, while FEMA does not. On its website, FEMA said it “consistently releases new flood maps and data, giving communities across America access to helpful, authoritative data that they can use to make decisions about flood risk.”

Meanwhile, Mark Friedlander, a spokesman for the Insurance Information Institute, said Florida has major flood events year-round.

“We’re going to see very significant flood losses from the hurricane this week, and only a small percentage of homeowners have that coverage,” he said.

In Taylor County, where Idalia made landfall, for example, only 5.4% of homeowners have flood insurance, Friedlander said. The county, in the Big Bend area of Florida, is home to about 21,000 people, according to the latest census data.

“That entire community is under water,” Friedlander said.

Gabe Gutierrez reported from Cedar Key. Phil McCausland and Melissa Chan reported from New York City.

State election officials prepare for efforts to disqualify Trump under 14th Amendment

Good Morning America

State election officials prepare for efforts to disqualify Trump under 14th Amendment

Isabella Murray and Hannah Demissie September 1, 2023

Efforts to keep former President Donald Trump off the 2024 ballot under the 14th Amendment are gaining momentum as election officials in key states are preparing for or starting to respond to legal challenges to Trump’s candidacy.

The argument to disqualify Trump from appearing on primary or general election ballots in 2024 boils down to Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment, which states that an elected official is not eligible to assume public office if that person “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against” the United States, or had “given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof,” unless they are granted amnesty by a two-thirds vote of Congress.

Several advocacy groups have said that Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021, fit that criteria — that he directly engaged in an insurrection. The legal theory has been pursued, unsuccessfully, against a few other elected Republicans; arguing their actions around Jan. 6 and support for overturning the 2020 election results amounted to the disqualifying behavior.

Trump has denied any involvement in the attack on the Capitol.

“Joe Biden, Democrats, and Never Trumpers are scared to death because they see polls showing President Trump winning in the general election,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Chung told ABC News in a statement. “The people who are pursuing this absurd conspiracy theory and political attack on President Trump are stretching the law beyond recognition much like the political prosecutors in New York, Georgia, and DC. There is no legal basis for this effort … “

The push to disqualify Trump under this constitutional clause gained more traction when two members of the conservative Federalist Society, William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, recently supported the idea in the pages of the Pennsylvania Law Review. Following the Baude and Paulsen article, retired conservative federal appeals judge J. Michael Luttig and Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Laurence Tribe made the same argument in The Atlantic.

PHOTO: Former US President and 2024 presidential hopeful Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Windham High School in Windham, New Hampshire, on Aug. 8, 2023. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images, FILE)

MORE: 14th Amendment, Section 3: A new legal battle against Trump takes shape

Now, threats of filings against Trump under this clause are gaining steam in a number of states, including New Hampshire and Arizona and in Michigan, a lawsuit to disqualify Trump was filed on Monday. Secretaries of state say they have started to take steps to prepare for the possibility of administering elections without the current GOP front-runner.

In an interview with ABC News, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, said that she and other secretaries of state from Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Maine started having conversations over a year ago about preparing for the legal challenges to Trump’s candidacy.

“I’m talking every day with colleagues about this, we’re all recognizing that our decisions that we make may in some cases be the first but won’t be the last and there may be multiple decision points throughout the course of the election cycle,” Benson said. “So, I think the public needs to be prepared for this to be an ongoing issue that is it has several resolution points and evolutions points throughout the cycle.”

But as conversations grow around the use of the 14th Amendment provision, some legal scholars and election officials are increasingly concerned about the practicality of the emerging lawsuits.

“The most difficult aspects of the litigation that the challenges to Trump’s eligibility will generate probably aren’t so much substantive as they are procedural,” Tribe wrote in an email to ABC News, noting that there is a lack of clarity about who has standing to bring the challenges.

“You can be sure that many secretaries of state, advised by many legal experts from across the ideological spectrum, are now studying the details of the legislative regimes in place in their respective states for dealing with challenges to the eligibility of candidates aspiring to become president,” he continued.

New Hampshire secretary of state conferring with attorney general

Bryant “Corky” Messner, a lawyer who lives in New Hampshire and was previously endorsed by Trump during his 2020 Senate run in the state, announced last week that he had begun the steps to challenge Trump’s eligibility to appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot.

New Hampshire’s Secretary of State Office confirmed to ABC News that Messner met with Secretary of State David Scanlan, a Republican, last Friday to discuss Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

PHOTO: New Hampshire Secretary of State, David M. Scanlan, following a public meeting with the New Hampshire Special Committee on Voter Confidence, Sept. 6, 2022. (John Tully/The Washington Post via Getty Images, FILE)

MORE: Trump’s 2024 bid hit with immediate challenge from group behind ‘disqualification clause’ lawsuits

The Secretary of State office also confirmed that it was flooded with calls from supporters of Trump on Monday, after conservative activist and host Charlie Kirk claimed that the state was trying to keep Trump off the ballot.

That office, and the attorney general’s, then released a joint statement clarifying that they have not taken any actions to prevent Trump from appearing on the primary ballot.

“Neither the Secretary of State’s Office nor the Attorney General’s Office has taken any position regarding the potential applicability of Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution to the upcoming presidential election cycle,” their statement reads.

The statement also said that Scanlan has asked the state’s attorney general to advise his office “regarding the meaning of Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution and the provision’s potential applicability to the upcoming presidential election cycle.”

Michigan fields its first 14th Amendment lawsuit

Robert Davis — widely known in Michigan as a citizen activist who serially sues state politicians — on Monday filed a lawsuit that urges Secretary of State Benson to declare Trump is ineligible to run for office.

Davis asked Benson to make a decision on Trump’s candidacy within 14 days.

Asked by ABC News her thoughts on Davis’ lawsuit, Benson said her focus is on upholding the law and acknowledged her state’s position as a battleground will influence public narrative nation wide surrounding the issue.

“My commitment is to making sure that even in this very unprecedented uncharted territory we find ourselves in that we at all times proceed according to the law, both substantively and procedurally.”

PHOTO: Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, attends an Election Night party, on Nov. 8, 2022, in Detroit. (Carlos Osorio/AP, FILE)

MORE: Should certain politicians be subject to disqualification under the Constitution’s ban on ‘insurrectionists’?

Benson had said during an interview on a Michigan Information and Research Service News podcast that it was too soon to decide on whether Trump will appear on Michigan’s ballot.

“I have said for, really since 2020, that this presidential cycle in 2024, is, I believe, in many ways going to be the grand finale of all the bumps and the challenges we’ve seen and endured since the 2020 election cycle, maybe even 2016.”

Arizona’s secretary of state gathering clarification from legal counsel

In Arizona, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a Democrat, said that he was planning for the possibility of challenges to Trump’s ballot eligibility but does not himself have the authority to explicitly bar Trump from appearing on the ballot.

Last year, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that there would be no way for his office to enforce the disqualification clause, only Congress would have the right to do so — a ruling Fontes called “dead wrong.”

“If that was the case, then no constitutional qualifier applies. So, a 23-year-old born in Poland, for example, who never became a citizen, could run for president in Arizona,” Fontes told ABC News.

Fontes said he doesn’t know of any specific individual or groups who have organized to file a lawsuit challenging Trump’s eligibility, but his office has gotten phone calls and notes objecting to the former president potentially appearing on the ballot.

For now, he’s “deciding on how to decide” how to proceed with who exactly appears on the 2024 ballot and gathering clarification from legal counsel.

PHOTO: Adrian Fontes, newly elected Arizona Secretary of State, gives a victory speech in Phoenix, Ariz., Nov. 14, 2022. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images, FILE)

“I cannot imagine a scenario where … a secretary of state allows Mr. Trump to be on the ballot and does not get sued. I can also not imagine a scenario where Mr. Trump is disallowed and does not get sued. I mean, this is this is this is where we are now. So I believe that we will be sued no matter what. I’ve still got to do my due diligence to get the job done,” Fontes said.

Fontes noted that he’s preparing so far in advance because he’s concerned about the toll these challenges and potential countersuits might pose to the voting process and election workers, especially in a state like Arizona, which has dealt with tedious and sometimes dangerous challenges surrounding election results over the past few cycles.

“Away from the political considerations This is an administrative issue. This is a ministerial point in time that cannot be avoided,” Fontes said. “We don’t have the luxury of waiting until next November. And anybody who’s misunderstanding the calendar and what it means to run an election has to sort of disabuse themselves of the notion that we have the comfort of time moving into this decision.”

“This is an active conversation. It is a national conversation. And I expect that we will end up eventually standing in front of nine judges in Washington, DC and they will decide,” he added.

Tribe, the Harvard law professor emeritus, also told ABC News that he expects the issue to reach the U.S. Supreme Court.

“Donald Trump could indeed be on the primary ballot in some states and not in others, although it is entirely possible that whichever state’s situation is first to reach adjudication in a state trial court when a secretary of state either sues or is sued with respect to Trump’s inclusion or exclusion from the ballot will quickly climb the judicial ladder to a Supreme Court adjudication that could then set a uniform rule for subsequent state primaries,” Tribe wrote in an email to ABC News.

“The Supreme Court would need to get involved soon after one or more states have received authoritative directions from a state or federal court,” he said, noting that the case was “likely to move on an expedited schedule in light of the need to avoid confusion and uncertainty.”

Ohio’s secretary of state: ‘A fringe legal theory’

In Ohio, another state where threats of the challenge have circulated, Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s office said in a statement that his office was “not aware of any litigation in Ohio” related to what they called a “fringe legal theory.”

There appear to be no attempts by LaRose, a Republican, to prepare for the possibility of any lawsuits challenging Trump’s eligibility.

“We do not anticipate being told to deny ballot access to any candidate who complies with Ohio law,” his office continued.

ABC News’ Kelsey Walsh and Laura Gersony contributed to this report.

This community lost 5 million gallons of clean, drinkable water a day — all because of an abandoned golf course

The Cool Down

This community lost 5 million gallons of clean, drinkable water a day — all because of an abandoned golf course

Laurelle Stelle – August 31, 2023

Jackson, Mississippi, experienced frequent water shortages and contamination for years, all while a leaking water main poured five million gallons per day into a nearby stream until finally being repaired.

What happened?

According to The New York Times, the leak was located under a golf course at the Colonial Country Club and had been there since 2016. It affected one of the two main pipes carrying water from the local treatment plant to the rest of the city, where the pressure was so strong that water from the leak shot into the air like a geyser and carved a swimming pool-sized pit in the ground.

Not only did the country club leak lose enough to supply 50,000 people with water every day, but it was only one of many large leaks affecting Jackson’s aging water system. The New York Times reports that the city’s two water plants were built in the 1910s and 1980s, meaning that many of the pipes the city relies on are over 100 years old and could break at any time.

Why does it matter?

Jackson residents have been experiencing problems with their water for years, according to the Times. They receive frequent “boil notices” — warnings that the tap water is unsafe and should be boiled before use — and at times receive no tap water at all. Many residents stockpile bottled water to prepare for the next crisis. Being without clean drinking water is bad enough, but experiencing these shortages while clean water is being poured out on the ground is especially alarming.

As temperatures rise across the globe, Jackson isn’t the only part of the U.S. experiencing water shortages. California and other western states have been facing a years-long drought, while pollution has affected the water supply in towns like Dimock, Pennsylvania. These shortages lead to increased water costs and may have long-term effects on agriculture that could drive up food prices.

What is being done to fix it?

Until recently, poor management has prevented any real improvement in Jackson, which is why the Justice Department ordered the city to bring in an outside manager for the water department in 2022, the Times reports. Repairs are finally underway, starting with the Colonial Country Club leak and aided by a recent infusion of federal funds.

Tropical Storm Idalia is nearing Florida. Residents are being urged to wrap up their preparations

Associated Press

Tropical Storm Idalia is nearing Florida. Residents are being urged to wrap up their preparations

Laura Bargfeld – August 28, 2023

Members of the Tampa, Fla., Parks and Recreation Dept., help residents with sandbags Monday, Aug. 28, 2023, in Tampa, Fla. Residents along Florida's gulf coast are making preparations for the effects of Tropical Storm Idalia. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara) — Members of the Tampa, Fla., Parks and Recreation Dept., help residents with sandbags Monday, Aug. 28, 2023, in Tampa, Fla. Residents along Florida’s gulf coast are making preparations for the effects of Tropical Storm Idalia. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

Motorists wait in line during sandbag distribution, ahead of Tropical Storm Idalia's arrival, at MacFarlane Park in Tampa, Fla., Monday, Aug. 28, 2023. (Ivy Ceballo/Tampa Bay Times via AP) — Motorists wait in line during sandbag distribution, ahead of Tropical Storm Idalia’s arrival, at MacFarlane Park in Tampa, Fla., Mon., Aug. 28, 2023. (Ivy Ceballo/Tampa Bay Times via AP)

Garry Sears, 78, collects fallen pecans from his pecan tree on Monday, Aug 28, 2023, near his collectible 1953 Ford sedan which he has elevated to keep out of storm surge. Sears, who said he had four inches of water in his Florida room during Tropical Storm Eta, in November 2020, is anticipating as much surge from Tropical Storm Idalia which intensified early Monday and is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches Florida's Gulf coast. (Douglas R. Clifford/Tampa Bay Times via AP) — Garry Sears, 78, collects fallen pecans from his pecan tree on Monday, Aug 28, 2023, near his collectible 1953 Ford sedan which he has elevated to keep out of storm surge. Sears, who said he had four inches of water in his Florida room during Tropical Storm Eta, in November 2020, is anticipating as much surge from Tropical Storm Idalia which intensified early Monday and is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches Florida’s Gulf coast. (Douglas R. Clifford/Tampa Bay Times via AP)

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — Florida residents loaded up on sandbags and evacuated from homes in low-lying areas along the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Idalia intensified Monday and forecasters predicted it would hit in days as a major hurricane with potentially life-threatening storm surges.

“You should be wrapping up your preparation for #TropicalStormIdalia tonight and Tues morning at the latest,” the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay said Monday on X, formerly known as Twitter.

As the state prepared, Idalia thrashed Cuba with heavy rain, especially in the westernmost part of the island, where the tobacco-producing province of Pinar del Rio is still recovering from the devastation caused by Hurricane Ian almost a year ago.

Authorities in the province issued a state of alert, and residents were evacuated to friends’ and relatives’ homes as authorities monitored the Cuyaguateje river for possible flooding. As much as 10 centimeters (4 inches) of rain fell in Cuba on Sunday, meteorological stations reported.

Idalia is expected to start affecting Florida with hurricane-force winds as soon as late Tuesday and arrive on the coast by Wednesday. It is the first storm to hit Florida this hurricane season and a potentially big blow to the state, which is also dealing with lingering damage from last year’s Hurricane Ian.

Idalia is also the latest in a summer of natural disasters, including wildfires in Hawaii, Canada and Greece ; the first tropical storm to hit California in 84 years, and devastating flooding in Vermont.

“Just got to prepare for these things, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst and, you know, hunker down, as they say,” said Derek Hughes as he waited to load up his car with sandbags at a city park in Tampa.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 46 counties, a broad swath that stretches across the northern half of the state from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast. The state has mobilized 1,100 National Guard members, who have 2,400 high-water vehicles and 12 aircraft at their disposal for rescue and recovery efforts.

Tampa International Airport and St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said they would close on Tuesday, and the Sunrail commuter rail service in Orlando was being suspended.

DeSantis warned of a “major impact” to the state, noting the potential for Idalia to become a Category 3 hurricane.

“The property — we can rebuild someone’s home,” DeSantis said during a news conference Monday. “You can’t unring the bell, though, if somebody stays in harm’s way and does battle with Mother Nature.”

DeSantis said the Florida Department of Transportation would waive tolls on highways in the Tampa area and the Big Bend starting at 4 a.m. Tuesday to help ease any burden on people in the path of the storm.

Large parts of the western coast of Florida are at risk for storm surges and floods. Evacuation notices have been issued in 21 counties with mandatory orders for some people in eight of those counties. Many of the notices were for people in low-lying and coastal areas, for those living in structures such as mobile and manufactured homes, recreational vehicles and boats, and for people who would be vulnerable in a power outage.

Pasco and Levy counties, located north of Tampa, both ordered mandatory evacuations for some residents. In Levy County, officials said residents of Cedar Key must be off the island by Tuesday evening because storm surges would make bridges impassable.

“Once the storm surge comes in, help may not be available to reach you,” the county said in a public advisory.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued a hurricane warning Monday from Longboat Key in the Sarasota area to the Holocene River, up past Tampa Bay.

Many school districts along the Gulf Coast said they would be closed Tuesday and Wednesday. Several colleges and universities said they would close their campuses on Tuesday, including the University of Florida in Gainesville.

“They told us that our dorm building, especially, is prone to flooding,” said Erin Amiss, a student at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg.

MacDill Air Force Base, located on Tampa Bay, is preparing to evacuate several aircraft and began a mandatory evacuation Monday morning for personnel who live in local counties, the Air Force said in a statement.

Tampa resident Grace Cruz, who has lived in the state for more than 40 years, put away patio furniture, filled her car up with gas and loaded up on sandbags. She worried about the tens of thousands of new residents to Florida who had never before experienced a hurricane, and she had some advice for them.

“If you’re planning to get away, you start ahead of time because of the traffic,” Cruz said. “No kidding. It’s horrible.”

As Gulf Coast residents packed up their cars or hauled out generators in case of power outages, state officials warned about potential fuel contamination at dozens of gas stations.

President Joe Biden spoke to DeSantis on Monday morning, telling the Florida governor that he had approved an emergency declaration for the state, the White House said in a news release. DeSantis is running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

Southwest Florida is still recovering from Hurricane Ian, which was responsible last year for almost 150 deaths. The Category 5 hurricane damaged 52,000 structures, nearly 20,000 of which were destroyed or severely damaged.

At 11 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Idalia was about 10 miles (16 kilometers) off the western tip of Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph), the hurricane center said. Idalia was moving north at 8 mph (13 kph). On Tuesday, it was expected to turn northeast at a faster pace, reaching Florida’s western coast as a dangerous major hurricane on Wednesday.

After moving across Florida, Idalia is forecast to blow through Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

So far this year, the U.S. East Coast has been spared from cyclones. But in the West earlier this month, Tropical Storm Hilary caused widespread flooding, mudslides and road closures in Mexico, California, Nevada and points north.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently said the 2023 hurricane season would be far busier than initially forecast, partly because of extremely warm ocean temperatures. The season runs through Nov. 30, with August and September typically the peak.

Associated Press writers Sarah Brumfield in Silver Spring, Maryland; Cristiana Mesquita in Havana; Mike Schneider in St. Louis, Missouri; and Lisa Baumann in Bellingham, Washington, contributed to this report.