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The Trump Team’s Startling Questions for E. Jean Carroll Jurors

Daily Beast

The Trump Team’s Startling Questions for E. Jean Carroll Jurors

Jose Pagliery – April 12, 2023

Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty

Are you on Truth Social? What cable news network do you watch? Have you ever used the hashtag #BelieveAllWomen when discussing sexual assault?

With just weeks to go before E. Jean Carroll’s rape trial against Donald Trump in New York, lawyers on both sides are figuring out what questions to ask prospective jurors. And while some questions are the run-of-the-mill kind used to screen biased jurors, a fair share highlight the bizarre nature of the case involving the country’s most divisive politician.

The federal trial is set to begin April 25 in Lower Manhattan, where the magazine columnist seeks to prove that the former president raped her in a changing room inside the luxury department store Bergdorf Goodman in the 1990s. Due to Trump’s delay games and refusal to test his DNA against the black coat dress she wore that day—which has been tested at a crime lab—jurors will mostly have to decide on competing recollections of what happened that day.

As such, the stakes are high for weeding out MAGA types and Trump haters. And the questions they plan to ask at jury selection indicate as much, half a dozen legal scholars told The Daily Beast.

One of Trump’s proposed questions stands out: “Do you think that the #metoo movement has gone too far?”

“He’s trying to poison the well a little bit and plant seeds in the jurors’ minds. He’s warming them up before he even talks to them,” noted Aviva Orenstein, a law school professor at Indiana University Bloomington.

However, Orenstein noted that unlike New York state courts, judges in federal court normally screen jurors with lawyers’ suggested questions—and no self-respecting judge would ask a leading question like that.

“I’d ask, ‘What is your opinion of #metoo?’” she said.

Trump to Face Sexual Battery Suit Under New ‘Survivors’ Law

Both sides’ proposed lists include several questions on a person’s feelings about alleged sexual assault, and scoring open-minded jurors who haven’t already labeled Trump a scumbag will be difficult. At trial, Carroll’s lawyers are hoping to convince jurors that Trump’s abundant history of misogynist comments paint the picture of a serial sexual predator protected by his entitlement and wealth.

In that sense, U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan has already tilted the trial in Carroll’s favor by allowing jurors—if they somehow haven’t already—to watch the leaked 2005 Access Hollywood tape where Trump infamously said, “When you’re a star, they let you do it… you can do anything… grab ’em by the pussy.”

Trump’s lawyers also want to engage in what several legal scholars noted was a blatant litmus test for people’s politics: dredging up the debacle that was the Senate’s contentious confirmation of Trump’s Supreme Court pick in 2018, Brett Kavanaugh. After he underwent a surface-level FBI background check, it was journalists who documented Kavanaugh’s long history of alleged sexual misconduct—including one episode in high school, where a prep school student recalled him drunkenly pinning her down in a bed while covering up her mouth so she couldn’t scream.

At Carroll’s trial later this month, Trump’s lawyers want to ask: “Are you familiar with the allegations made against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh before he was confirmed to the Court?”

Attorneys trying to assess people’s biases regularly draw from examples in movies and widely followed news stories—but this one carries a particular undertone that smacks of a MAGA loyalty test, noted Andrea D. Lyon, a longtime public defender who’s tried 138 cases in court.

“These are the kinds of questions you can’t get to ask. Judges won’t let you, because you’re bringing in a case that has nothing to do with a trial… there’s a huge backstory. And my guess is, it’s to identify people who just hate Trump, and also take a look and see if ‘grab ‘em by the pussy’ people stick together,” said Lyon, a law professor at Indiana’s Valparaiso University.

The Misogynist Things Trump Has Said That His Lawyers Don’t Want Jurors to Hear

There is something that attorneys for both Trump and Carroll are itching to know: where these New Yorkers hang out online. Carroll’s team is keen to identify anyone who joined Trump when he got booted off Twitter and launched his own social media network—a relatively small batch that was estimated at 513,000 active daily users last year.

“Is there anyone who uses or has used the social media platform Truth Social?” Carroll’s lawyers have proposed asking.

“Most of them probably don’t know what Truth Social is. Obviously, if they use it, it tells you a lot about who they are. It’s Trump’s platform,” noted Bennett L. Gershman, a law professor at Pace University in New York City.

Meanwhile, Trump’s team wants prospective jurors to list every social platform they’re on. But they stopped short of asking for potential candidates’ usernames, which could be seen as an offensive intrusion of privacy.

Carroll’s lawyers seem intent on using the jury selection process to point out how Trump is also under criminal investigation, with proposed questions probing people’s familiarity with the Manhattan District Attorney’s criminal case against him for faking business records to hide his hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels and the Justice Department’s investigation into his hoarding of classified documents at his Florida oceanside estate of Mar-a-Lago.

Just this week, Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina cited that first case and the widespread press coverage of Trump’s criminal arraignment in Manhattan criminal court as a reason to delay the trial—something that Carroll’s lawyer, Roberta Kaplan, starkly resisted in a letter to the judge on Wednesday.

Carroll’s lawyers are trying to screen the crazies who still parrot Trump’s unfounded claims that he lost the 2020 election to President Joe Biden unfairly.

“Is there anyone who believes the results of the 2020 Presidential Election are illegitimate?” her lawyers hope to ask.

Gershman doubts that the federal judge will allow it, though.

“This one is unique to our time. We haven’t had a presidential election where there are elements about whether the results are legitimate or not. But this is a question that the judge might not allow, because it’s getting into politics… and partisan politics has nothing to do with this trial,” he said.

But he stressed that it’s a question worth asking—along with a person’s views about alleged sexual assault.

“I’d like to know how they feel about those kinds of issues that are prevalent today to get a sense of whether I’m dealing with someone who’s intelligent and somewhat progressive or in the Dark Ages,” Gershman said.

Russia’s economic stats are ‘pure invention from Putin’s imagination,’ and its economy is actually imploding, Yale researchers say

Business Insider

Russia’s economic stats are ‘pure invention from Putin’s imagination,’ and its economy is actually imploding, Yale researchers say

Jennifer Sor – April 12, 2023

Russia’s economy is in tatters, despite what its central bank says, according to Yale researchers.
In a recent op-ed, two academics called Russia’s growth forecasts a figment of Putin’s imagination.
Stats outside of what is stated by Russia suggest its economy has been hit hard by sanctions.

Russia’s economy is in tatters, and economic stats touted by the country’s central bank are “pure invention” from Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to two Yale researchers.

In an op-ed for TIME on Tuesday, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian, two academics at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, blasted Russia’s economic forecasts, with the nation’s central bank painting an image of resilience amid western sanctions and Russia’s costly invasion of Ukraine.

The central bank recently adjusted its GDP outlook, estimating its economy to grow 1% or contract 1% this year, though it previously estimated a 1%-4% contraction. But those numbers are “fictional,” Sonnenfeld and Tian said.

“Since the Ukrainian invasion, our data has shown that the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable,” the academics said.

They pointed to unreleased statistics that paint a bleaker picture of Russia’s situation, including the nation’s exports and imports, capital inflows and outflows, and output data for oil and gas.

“Thus the Russian GDP number is a pure invention from Putin’s imagination,” the researchers said. “The Putin-selected statistics are then recklessly trumpeted across the world media and relied upon by careless experts in constructing ludicrous forecasts which are unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.”

Sonnenfeld and Tian were particularly critical of the International Monetary Fund, which have factored in Russia’s economic projections in their own analysis of the nation’s economy. The IMF currently estimates Russia’s GDP to grow by 0.7% in 2023, but Sonnenfeld and Tian claim that the organization’s economists have privately admitted they have “zero visibility” into the actual state of Russia’s economy.

Estimates outside of those offered by Russian officials suggest the country’s economy has been battered over the past year. By some accounts, Russia’s energy revenue has tanked amid the EU’s Russian oil ban and $60 price cap, and other major sectors of its economy have plunged 60%-95%, Sonnenfeld and Tian estimate.

Other experts also have a poor outlook for Russia’s economy, largely due to the nation’s isolation from global markets and its de-investment in technology. The nation could become a failed state by the end of the decade, according to one think-tank. The World Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs all expect Russia’s economy to contract this year.

“Putin is losing the military war, the diplomatic war, and the economic war. He must not win the disinformation war by western media and policy makers naively falling for his fake economic data,” the researchers said.

‘Please don’t punish him’: Louisville shooting bodycam footage, 911 calls paint picture of desperate moments

USA Today

‘Please don’t punish him’: Louisville shooting bodycam footage, 911 calls paint picture of desperate moments

‘Get here now!’; 911 calls from panicked employees inside Louisville bank released – Oh my God, there’s an active shooter there.

Jorge L. Ortiz, John Bacon and Andrew Wolfson – April 12, 2023

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – A frantic call from an Old National Bank employee and a much calmer one from a co-worker hiding in a closet provided Louisville police the first indications of the carnage caused by a gunman’s attack, according to audio of 911 calls released Wednesday.

The shooter’s mother tried to prevent the mayhem, reaching out to police and saying her son “currently has a gun and is heading toward” the bank, but it was too late.

Together, the 911 calls and the body camera video released Tuesday fill out details of the chaotic scene surrounding Monday’s assault and the police officers’ heroic response.

Five people were killed and eight injured by a bank worker identified as Connor Sturgeon, who police said was armed with an AR-15 rifle. Authorities said officers arrived at the scene three minutes after being dispatched, likely saving lives.

“Oh my God, there’s an active shooter there,” says a panicked woman identified as the first 911 caller. “I just watched it on a Teams meeting. … We were having a board meeting with our commercial (lending) team.”

An initial picture of the harrowing Monday morning scene develops as the operator asks the woman for the bank’s address, where specifically the shooting was taking place and what the assailant looked like.

As more calls start to come in, the operator excuses himself and tells her, “We have them (police officers) going that way. … We do have everybody responding. We’re getting them out there.’’

One of the callers says she’s calling from inside a closet in the building as numerous gunshots are heard in the background. She gives a description of the shooting and says she knows the perpetrator: “He works with us.”

Another call came from a woman who says her son was heading toward the bank with a gun, saying his roommate had called expressing concern. She identifies herself as Sturgeon’s mother.

“He apparently left a note,’’ she says. “I don’t know what to do, I need your help. He’s never hurt anyone. He’s a really good kid. Please don’t punish him.’’

The woman says her son is an employee at the bank, is not violent and has never owned a gun. She asks if she should go to the bank and the responder advises her against it, saying officers were already at the scene and it was not a safe location.

INTENSE VIDEO: Louisville shooting updates: Body camera video shows officers fired at in gunman’s ‘ambush’

Louisville police release body camera footage from mass shooting at bank

Latest developments:

►Funeral services will be held Friday for Elliott, a senior vice president at the bank whom Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear described as a good friend who helped him launch his law career.

►The killer left a note behind and told at least one person he was suicidal, U.S. Rep. Morgan McGarvey said.

A mother’s anguished 911 call

The gunman’s mother appears torn in a 911 call, wanting to protect her son but also warn police about what he might do. She tells the operator her son doesn’t own a gun but may be headed toward the bank with one.

Sturgeon’s mother says she’s shaking and doesn’t know where her son could have gotten a weapon.

“We don’t even own guns,” she says, providing a description of her son – white, 6-foot-4 inches tall.

She asks whether she should go to the bank and the operator warns her against it, saying police officers have responded.

“You’ve had calls from other people?” she asks, sounding incredulous and heartbroken. “So they’re already there?”

Yes, the operator says. “It is an unsafe situation.”

– Donovan Slack

Shooter’s parents can’t explain how ‘Mr. Floyd Central’ became a mass killer

The parents of the 25-year-old bank employee who killed five people in a hail of bullets say they can’t explain how the son voted “Mr. Floyd Central High” seven years ago turned into a brutal killer.

The family of Connor Sturgeon said late Tuesday that he had “mental health challenges” but that there were never any warning signs he was capable of what police described as the targeted shooting of Old National Bank colleagues gathered for a meeting Monday morning.

“No words can express our sorrow, anguish, and horror at the unthinkable harm our son Connor inflicted on innocent people, their families, and the entire Louisville community,” the family said in a statement.

As Louisville police seek a motive, Interim Chief Jacquelyn Gwinn-Villaroel denied reports that Sturgeon was about to get fired from his job at the bank. She told CNN on Wednesday that “there was no discussion about him being terminated.”

Body camera video from the first two police officers who responded shows them taking fire in what Deputy Police Chief Paul Humphrey described as an “ambush.”

Governor, mayor among hundreds paying tribute to victims at vigil

Hundreds of people gathered Wednesday afternoon at Louisville’s Muhammad Ali Center – about a mile from the site of the shooting – for a vigil to honor the five persons killed.

They have been identified as Joshua Barrick, 40, Thomas Elliott, 63, Juliana Farmer, 45, James Tutt, 64, and Deana Eckert, 57. They were all bank employees.

Among those who spoke at the memorial were Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg. Beshear was close friends with Elliott, whom the governor credited with helping launch his law career.

Beshear urged those in attendance to remember to express their love for those they care about.

“We can live for the fallen, and we can live better for them. We can be better,” Beshear said. “We can be better family members. Better dads. Better moms. We can be better community members, and we can be better people. Let’s commit that to them.”

Officer Nickolas Wilt fights for his life

Officer Nickolas Wilt remained in the hospital in critical condition after being shot in the head as he ran toward the gunfire. The released version of Wilt’s footage cuts off before he is shot.

A bullet grazed fellow officer Cory Galloway, Wilt’s field trainer, on his left side. Galloway found cover behind a large planter and eventually fired the round that took down the assailant.

Wilt, 26, graduated from the Louisville Metro Police Academy 10 days before the shooting. Gwinn-Villaroel said she had sworn him in as his family watched, and Wilt’s twin brother is going through the academy now, friends of the family said. Wilt was working just his fourth shift as a police officer.

The two officers’ quick response Monday saved lives, Gwinn-Villaroel said: They “did not hesitate” when the call came in at 8:38 a.m.

“I’m just truly proud of the heroic actions of those two officers and everybody else that responded,” Gwinn-Villaroel said. “They went toward danger in order to save and preserve life, and that’s what you saw yesterday. They stopped the threat so other lives could be saved.

“They showed no hesitation, and they did what they were taught to do.”

– Lucas Aulbach and Madeline Mitchell, Louisville Courier Journal

Galloway: ‘I think I’ve got him down’

Galloway’s video shows him and Wilt as they reach the top of the stairs outside the bank. Wilt is not shown being hit, but Galloway rolls down the stairs and positions himself behind the planter and on the sidewalk. He takes cover there for just over three minutes before other officers arrive.

At that point, Galloway is shown firing several shots. The gunshots are audible, but the footage does not offer a clear view of the fatal shot. Humphrey said Galloway did not have a “close-range shot” and the stairs obscured his camera angle.

“I think I’ve got him down,” Galloway says. He then walks up the stairs and over shattered glass. An image blurred by police shows the shooter down in the lobby, near a second set of glass doors.

“There’s only a few people in this country that can do what they did. Not everybody can do that,” Humphrey said. “They deserve to be honored for what they did because it is not something that comes easily, it is not something that comes naturally. … That’s superhuman.”

– Madeline Mitchell and Lucas Aulbach, Louisville Courier Journal

Impromptu memorial to victims emerges outside bank

The steps outside of Old National Bank have been transformed into a somber memorial crowded with flowers. White crosses with blue hearts bear the names of the victims. Kett Ketterer, who works nearby at KD & Company wholesale flower company, unloaded more than a dozen potted Easter lilies.

“I think everybody’s just in shock, and you have to have some way to express yourself in your grief,” he said. “And I’m trying to understand. It just doesn’t make sense.”

Andrew Thuita came to the memorial because his girlfriend works nearby downtown. She was safe, but he has been too close to tragedy before. In 2018, he had gone shopping at the Jeffersontown Kroger on the same day two people were shot and killed.

“Another statistic in America,” Thuita said. “There is something wrong.”

– Maggie Menderski, Louisville Courier Journal

Timeline for a tragedy

Sturgeon made a number of posts on his now deleted Instagram account shortly before the rampage began. Among them: “They won’t listen to words or protests. Let’s see if they hear this.” Sturgeon, armed with an AR-15 rifle, then livestreamed his assault.

Humphrey said the first 911 call came in at 8:38 a.m., and officers were sent to the scene. Wilt and Galloway arrived at the entrance to the bank three minutes later and were met with gunfire that forced them to back up their vehicle. One minute later they got out of the car, and two minutes after that Wilt was shot and officers returned fire.

At 8:45 a.m., after a burst of gunfire, officers entered the bank and confirmed the suspect was down. Sturgeon died at the scene.

Family statement mourns loss of son, his victims

The shooter’s family reached out to the Louisville community in their statement Tuesday night.

“We mourn their loss and that of our son, Connor. We pray for everyone traumatized by his senseless acts of violence and are deeply grateful for the bravery and heroism of the Louisville Metropolitan Police Department,” the statement read.

“While Connor, like many of his contemporaries, had mental health challenges which we, as a family, were actively addressing, there were never any warning signs or indications he was capable of this shocking act. While we have many unanswered questions, we will continue to cooperate fully with law enforcement officials and do all we can to aid everyone in understanding why and how this happened.”

A star athlete with negative self-image

Sturgeon grew up in southern Indiana and graduated from Floyd Central High School, about 12 miles northwest of Louisville. He earned his bachelor’s and master’s degrees at the University of Alabama, an school spokesperson confirmed.

At Floyd Central, he played basketball for his father, Todd Sturgeon, who was the head coach. The younger Sturgeon was named “Mr. Floyd Central” in 2016 as a senior.

A former friend and teammate at Floyd Central told The Daily Beast this week that Sturgeon was “smart, popular and a star athlete.”

But in a 2018 college essay at the University of Alabama, Sturgeon wrote, “My self-esteem has long been a problem for me,” and as a “late bloomer in middle and high school, I struggled to a certain extent to fit in, and this has given me a somewhat negative self-image that persists today.” The essay was posted to a website called “CourseHero,” CNN and The Daily Beast reported, but it has since been taken down.

Ukraine clings to Bakhmut as Russia pounds front lines

Reuters

Ukraine clings to Bakhmut as Russia pounds front lines

Kyiv and the West say the smashed city has only symbolic importance.

April 11, 2023

Fighting raged in the frontline cities in eastern Ukraine Tuesday, as Russian forces launched airstrikes and artillery attacks.

Footage from a Ukrainian soldier’s bodycam video, released by the border service, showed fighters launching rocket-propelled grenades and shooting rifles in the destroyed yard of a house, purported to be in the besieged city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian officials said its forces repelled dozens of attacks, as the Russian military kept up its effort to take control of Bakhmut.

The battle for the small city – now largely ruined – on the edge of Russian-controlled territory in Donetsk has been the bloodiest of the war, as Moscow tries to revive its campaign after recent setbacks.

Both sides have suffered heavy casualties in the Bakhmut fighting.

Near the frontline, under the cover of darkness, medical volunteers loaded wounded soldiers into a bus converted into an ambulance to bring them to a hospital in the city of Dnipro.

Mariia, a 23-year-old volunteer paramedic, told Reuters that during a two-week rotation she and her team evacuated hundreds of wounded soldiers.

“This bus has been operational for around two months, so we evacuated nearly 600 people. This bus makes a whole difference as it saves people’s lives.”

Tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed and wounded on both sides of the conflict since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

The ambulance effort involves rotating teams of volunteers who spend several weeks on call, ready when injured soldiers need transport from the frontline.

Both trained medics and volunteers without a medical background serve.

“It is very important for me because I have a connection to what we are doing. I work in the field which I know and where I am confident that I will do my best. Each of us has a mission and this is my mission.”

Donetsk is one of four provinces in eastern and southern Ukraine that Russia declared annexed last year and is seeking to fully occupy.

Last week, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said troops could be withdrawn from Bakhmut if they ran the risk of being encircled.

Kyiv and the West say the smashed city has only symbolic importance.

Study warns critical ocean current is nearing ‘collapse.’ That would be a global disaster.

USA Today

Study warns critical ocean current is nearing ‘collapse.’ That would be a global disaster.

Doyle Rice, USA Today – April 11, 2023

Due to global warming, a deep ocean current around Antarctica that has been relatively stable for thousands of years could head for “collapse” over the next few decades.

Such a sudden shift could affect the planet’s climate and marine ecosystems for centuries to come.

So says a recent study that was published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature.

The cold water that sinks near Antarctica drives the deepest flow of a network of currents that spans throughout the world’s oceans, known as the overturning circulation. The overturning carries heat, carbon, oxygen and nutrients around the globe.

This in turn influences climate, sea level and the productivity of marine ecosystems. Indeed, the loss of nutrient-rich seawater near the surface could damage fisheries, according to the study.

‘Headed towards collapse’

This deep ocean current has remained in a relatively stable state for thousands of years, but with increasing greenhouse gas emissions and the melting of Antarctic ice, Antarctic overturning is predicted to slow down significantly over the next few decades.

“Our modeling shows that if global carbon emissions continue at the current rate, then the Antarctic overturning will slow by more than 40% in the next 30 years – and on a trajectory that looks headed towards collapse,” said study lead author Matthew England of the University of New South Wales in Australia.

Speaking about the new research, paleoclimatologist Alan Mix told Reuters “that’s stunning to see that happen so quickly.” Mix, a paleoclimatologist at Oregon State University and co-author on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, who was not involved in the study, added “It appears to be kicking into gear right now. That’s headline news.”

‘Uncharted levels’: Gases fueling climate change still rising at an alarming rate, NOAA says

Atlantic current also affected

Such a collapse would also impact a nearby Atlantic Ocean current, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, which transports warm, salty water from the tropics northward at the ocean surface and cold water southward at the ocean bottom.

This current includes the well-known Gulf Stream, which affects weather patterns in the U.S. and Europe. “The main issue for the AMOC at the moment is meltwater from Greenland, which slows that current,” England told USA TODAY.

Other studies in recent years about the AMOC drew comparisons to the scientifically inaccurate 2004 disaster movie “The Day After Tomorrow,” which used such an ocean current shutdown as the premise of the film. In a 2018 study, authors said a collapse was at least decades away but would be a catastrophe.

The Day after Tomorrow?: Study warns of ‘irreversible transition’ in ocean currents that could rapidly freeze parts of North America

An Antarctic "tidewater" glacier meets the ocean in this 2018 photo that also shows sea ice floating on the water's surface. — An Antarctic “tidewater” glacier meets the ocean in this 2018 photo that also shows sea ice floating on the water’s surface.

Cause of the current slowdown

What’s causing the currents to slow down and potentially collapse? “Climate change is to blame,” England wrote for the Conversation. “As Antarctica melts, more freshwater flows into the oceans. This disrupts the sinking of cold, salty, oxygen-rich water to the bottom of the ocean”.

Specifically, more than 250 trillion tons of that cold, salty, oxygen-rich water sinks near Antarctica each year. This water then spreads northward and carries oxygen into the deep Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

“If the oceans had lungs, this would be one of them,” England said.

“Simply put, a slowing or collapse of the overturning circulation would change our climate and marine environment in profound and potentially irreversible ways.” he wrote.

Climate change and hurricanes: Climate change could push more hurricanes toward US coasts, new study suggests

How would it impact the US?

England told USA TODAY that the main impact for North America would be sea-level rise along the East Coast.

In addition, another impact of the collapse of the AMOC would be a transition to a more La Nina-like-state in the Pacific Ocean, England said. La Niña, a natural cooling of sea water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affects weather and climate in the U.S. and around the world.

It tends to lead to worsening droughts and wildfires in the Southwest U.S., and more hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.

What can be done?

“Our study shows continuing ice melt will not only raise sea levels, but also change the massive overturning circulation currents which can drive further ice melt and hence more sea-level rise, and damage climate and ecosystems worldwide,” England wrote in the Conversation. “It’s yet another reason to address the climate crisis – and fast.”

Contributing: The Associated Press

How Russia’s large-scale war efforts have warped the country’s economy, according to top scholars

Business Insider

How Russia’s large-scale war efforts have warped the country’s economy, according to top scholars

Morgan Chittum – April 11, 2023

The war in Ukraine by the numbers, one year later

Putin SCTO summit — Russian President Vladimir Putin.Contributor/Getty Images

Russia’s economy is adjusting to the sanctions imposed on it after Moscow began its war on Ukraine.
As a result, the country has lost the largest markets for its exports.
The shrinking market for Russia’s resources will force the Kremlin to cut spending on infrastructure and social programs.

Russia’s economy has been transformed in nearly ever way since Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine last year.

While the World Bank sees a smaller contraction than expected, and the International Monetary Fund forecasted some growth in 2023, top scholars outlined how the country has adjusted to the Western sanctions imposed on it since the invasion.

For example, Russia has lost its largest export markets, reducing its bargaining power. So Russia is selling its crude to a “truncated” market for around $50 per barrel, or just half of its breakeven price, Wharton Business School professor Philip Nichols told Insider.

“Russia is able to make up the difference by drawing on the foreign currency reserves in its National Wealth Fund, but those reserves are shrinking,” he said.

Eventually, the smaller market for Russia’s resources will force the Kremlin to cut spending on infrastructure and social programs, Nichols added.

Meanwhile, Russia has had to search for substitutions to trading partners that the Kremlin deems as “unfriendly countries,” which represent over 50% of the global economy, per a report from Finland’s central bank.

As a result of deteriorating relationships with other countries, Russia is orienting towards partners that did not impose sanctions like China and Turkey.

To trade with them, Russia must build more infrastructure, such as oil pipelines, to minimize exposure to the West, said Boston College’s Aleksandar Tomic.

“However, the war in Ukraine is definitely imposing costs on Russia, and there must be realignment to support the effort which is not likely to end any time soon,” he added.

And car imports from China have increased as Russian auto manufacturing collapsed, Tania Babina, a business professor at the Columbia Business School, told Insider.

Finally, airlines, pharmaceuticals, and industries that require “sophisticated materials” have been hit hard too, Nichols said.

This is due to highly skilled workers fleeing the country, resulting in less productivity. Also, these industries rely on sophisticated machinery, which need a continued supply of replacement parts that are now harder to obtain because of sanctions.

“This cannot be turned around in a short period of time; the Russian economy is going to feel the effects of this downgrade for a long time,” said Nichols.

How to Fall Back Asleep After Waking Up in the Middle of the Night

Real Simple

How to Fall Back Asleep After Waking Up in the Middle of the Night

Ashley Zlatopolsky – April 11, 2023

Sleep experts share what to do and what to avoid.

<p>jhorrocks/Getty Images</p> — jhorrocks/Getty Images

You’ve probably been here before: It’s 3 a.m., you’re awake for reasons you can’t explain and now you can’t fall back asleep. Should you continue tossing and turning and hope for the best, or get out of bed to do something that makes you sleepy again? The best course of action lies somewhere in the middle. Here’s what sleep experts recommend doing (and avoiding) if you wake up in the middle of the night and need help falling back to sleep.

What causes nighttime waking?

Normal, natural sleep patterns.

There are few things worse than waking up in the middle of the night, whether from anxiety or another reason, and not being able to fall back asleep. But waking up in the middle of the night is actually normal. “Everybody wakes up in the middle of the night,” says Philip Lindeman, MD, PhD and a sleep expert with Ghostbed. “Normal sleep cycles are such that we all enter at least a very shallow phase of wakefulness several times per night.” This can include interludes of getting up to use the bathroom and then going back to sleep. In fact, he adds that you may not even remember many of these awakenings happening.

Internal health issues and environmental factors.

Other causes of nighttime waking can include stress, anxiety, illness, hunger, discomfort, or changes in your sleep routine and sleep environment, explains clinical psychologist Carolina Estevez, PsyD. Then there are causes like nightmares or night terrors, or environmental noise or light disturbances.

Clearly middle-of-the-night waking is common and far from unavoidable, and is typically fine if we can get back to sleep without much of a problem. The real issue arises when you wake up, either naturally or unnaturally, and can’t fall back asleep afterward. This can actually cause more stress and anxiety that keeps you awake, and of course cause you miss out on precious sleep for your overall health.

How to Fall Back Asleep, According to Experts

Let your mind wander in a “happy place.”

If you’re awake in the middle of the night and wondering how to fall back asleep, Dr. Lindeman first recommends getting yourself in a good headspace. “Try guiding yourself into a ‘happy place,’ ‘flying’ over a place you like, or even ‘walking’ there if it helps,” he says. “Don’t worry if your eyes are open or closed, because it doesn’t matter. What matters is that the room is dark.” Dr. Lindeman says to “let your mind wander and do your best to stay there,” which can lull you into a sleep.

After about 20 minutes, find another place to lie down.

However, Dr. Lindeman adds that it’s important not to force sleep, which he says can have the opposite effect. If more than 20 minutes have gone by and you’re still lying awake in bed, Estevez suggests getting up and going into another room that might help calm your mind. Ideally, this is a room with a couch or even another bed where you can lie down and encourage rest.

Try simple relaxation techniques.

“You can also try relaxation techniques such as deep breathing or progressive muscle relaxation,” she adds. Some research has shown that slow breathing, together with healthy sleep hygiene and habits, may be more effective for insomnia than interventions like hypnosis or prescription medications. One breathing exercise called 4-7-8 breathing, which involves an elongated exhale, helps deactivate your stress system and activate your rest and digest system.

Get more physical exercise during the daytime.

Estevez also says that incorporating regular physical activity into your day can help promote better sleep quality at night and prevent occurrences of nighttime waking and sleeplessness.

What Not to Do

There’s more on the list of things you should avoid rather than things you should do if you’re wondering how to fall back asleep. The biggest thing to avoid: your cell phone, and then your TV. “Don’t open your phone, tablet, or computer,” Dr. Lindeman says. “It’s the worst thing you can do because the wavelength of light emitted will bottom out your melatonin levels.” Since blue light and bright light stops melatonin production, which is essential to making you feel sleepy, playing around on your phone or putting on a Netflix show can cue your body further for wakefulness.

Dr. Lindeman also cautions against turning on a light, eating, drinking, or taking medicine unless you’re in pain (such as being sick with a virus and unable to fall back asleep because of it). If you’re really struggling to fall back asleep and none of the above has helped, you can try taking a hot bath or diffusing lavender oil in your bedroom, but these should be last resorts, since the act of turning on lights or looking for things to help might in turn wire your brain some more.

Another thing to avoid is the clock. Seeing what time it is can cause anxiety and keep you from falling back asleep, so if you have regular nighttime awakenings that leave you awake for long periods of time, you may want to consider removing any clocks from your room (or at least keeping them out of your sight). If noise is keeping you up, earplugs or a sound machine are other options to consider, while light disturbances can be blocked out with a good set of blackout curtains or a quality eye mask.

What to Do if Nothing Works

If waking up in the middle of the night and not being able to fall back asleep is affecting your mental health or daily functioning, and you’ve tried all of the above to no avail, an underlying medical sleep condition, like insomnia, could be at the root of the problem. To get to the bottom of it, Estevez says, “speaking with a health professional may be helpful in developing an individualized treatment plan.” However, be sure to practice good sleep hygiene, keep a regular sleep schedule and avoid stimulating activities at night, like scrolling your phone before bed or working out late.

China could cross a red line and start arming Russia if Ukraine pulls off a major counterattack, leaked Pentagon papers say

Business Insider

China could cross a red line and start arming Russia if Ukraine pulls off a major counterattack, leaked Pentagon papers say

Tom Porter – April 11, 2023

Xi, Putin — Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (C) reviews a military honour guard with Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) in Beijing on June 8, 2018.GREG BAKER/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Leaked US documents reveal what could prompt China to begin arming Russia, reports say.
A Ukrainian attack on Russia using NATO weapons could be a red line for China, they say.
The leaked documents contain secret details of US military operations globally.

Leaked Pentagon papers spell out the circumstances that US officials believe could prompt China to get involved in the Ukraine conflict and begin arming its ally Russia, reports say.

The US Defense Department documents posted online appear to contain extensive discussion of the Ukraine conflict, and of China’s military plans and capabilities.

They say that a Ukrainian attack on Russian territory using weapons supplied by NATO would compel Beijing to act, according to The Washington Post and CNN, who have reviewed the documents.

US officials believe that if Ukraine were to strike a significant strategic target or leader in Russia it could be further justification for China to cross a red line and send lethal aid to Russia, reported the Post.

The documents say that, according to US intelligence, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had earlier this year discussed using drones to strike Russian deployment lines in Rostov Oblast, which borders eastern Ukraine, CNN reported.

The US has been hesitant to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles amid concerns they could be used to strike targets in Russia, and potentially escalate the conflict.

China could use Ukrainian attacks in Russia “as an opportunity to cast NATO as the aggressor, and may increase its aid to Russia if it deems the attacks were significant,” said CNN, citing the leaks.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, China has trodden a careful path, seeking to portray itself as neutral in the conflict. More recently it has acted as a peace broker, while also providing Russia with key diplomatic and economic support. At a recent summit in Moscow, China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin renewed their “no limits” cooperation pact.

But Russian setbacks on the battlefield, and reports that Russia has suffered steep casualties and equipment shortages, have prompted claims that China could start providing lethal aid to Russia.

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in March told NBC News that if China were to provide such aid, it would “alienate” it from the world.

China has denied the claim, and said it has provided weapons to neither side in the war, while accusing the US of stoking the conflict by providing Ukraine with billions in aid and weapons.

Analysts have told Insider that if Ukraine makes significant battlefield gains in the Spring it could prompt China to act and escalate its support for Russia.

The leaked papers suggest that it is attacks within Russia itself that would draw China into the war.

The Pentagon has said it is investigating the source of the leaks, which were posted on platforms including Discord and 4Chan.

Pressured by Their Base on Abortion, Republicans Strain to Find a Way Forward

The New York Times

Pressured by Their Base on Abortion, Republicans Strain to Find a Way Forward

Jonathan Weisman – April 11, 2023

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) speaks to reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, on Feb. 2, 2023 (Kenny Holston/The New York Times)

Republican leaders have followed an emboldened base of conservative activists into what increasingly looks like a political cul-de-sac on the issue of abortion — a tightly confined absolutist position that has limited their options before the 2024 election season, even as some in the party push for moderation.

Last year’s Supreme Court decision overturning a woman’s constitutionally protected right to an abortion was supposed to send the issue of abortion access to the states, where local politicians were supposed to have the best sense of the electorate’s views. But the decision on Friday by a conservative judge in Texas, invalidating the Food and Drug Administration’s 23-year-old approval of the abortion pill mifepristone, showed the push for nationwide restrictions on abortion has continued since the high court’s nullification of Roe v. Wade.

Days earlier, abortion was the central theme in a liberal judge’s landslide victory for a contested and pivotal seat on the state Supreme Court in Wisconsin. Some Republicans are warning that the uncompromising position of their party’s activist base could be leading them over an electoral cliff next year.

“If we can show that we care just a little bit, that we have some compassion, we can show the country our policies are reasonable, but because we keep going down these rabbit holes of extremism, we’re just going to keep losing,” said Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., who has repeatedly called for more flexibility on first-term abortions and exceptions for rape, incest and the life and health of the mother. “I’m beside myself that I’m the only person who takes this stance.”

She is far from the only one.

The chair of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel, has been showing polling to members of her party demonstrating that Americans largely accept abortion up to 15 weeks into a pregnancy and support the same exemptions that Mace wants. Dan O’Donnell, a conservative radio host in Wisconsin, wrote after the lopsided conservative defeat in the state Supreme Court contest that abortion was driving young voters to the polls in staggering numbers and that survival of the party dictated compromise.

“As difficult as this may be to come to grips with, Republicans are on the wrong side politically of an issue that they are clearly on the right side of morally,” he wrote.

The problem goes beyond abortion. With each mass shooting, the GOP’s staunch stand against gun control faces renewed scrutiny. Republicans courted a backlash last week when they expelled two young Democratic lawmakers out of the Tennessee state legislature for leading youthful protests after a school shooting in Nashville that left six dead. Then on Monday came another mass shooting, in Louisville, Kentucky.

“My kids had friends on Friday night running for their lives,” said Mace, referring to a shooting on South Carolina’s Isle of Palms, which elicited no response from most of her party. “Republicans aren’t showing compassion in the wake of these mass shootings.”

The party’s stand against legislation to combat climate change has helped turn young voters into the most liberal bloc of the American electorate. And Republican efforts to roll back LGBTQ rights and target transgender teenagers, while popular with conservatives, may be seen by the broader electorate as, at best, a distraction from more pressing issues.

Rep. Mark Pocan, an openly gay Democrat from Wisconsin, said Monday that in the short term, the Republican attacks on transgender Americans were having a real-world effect, with a rise in violence and bigotry. But he said it is also contributing to the marginalization of the party, even in his swing state.

He pointed to the “WOW counties” that surround Milwaukee — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — where then-Republican Gov. Scott Walker won 73% in 2014, and where the Republican, Dan Kelly, won 58.7% in the state Supreme Court race last week.

“We keep seeing our numbers increase in those counties because those Republicans largely are economic Republicans, not social Republicans,” Pocan said, adding that GOP candidates “definitely are chasing their people away.”

Mace does appear to be correct that her desire for compromise is not widely shared in a party in which analysts continue to look past social issues to explain their electoral defeats.

Kelly was a poor candidate who lost by an almost identical margin in another state Supreme Court race in 2020, noted David Winston, a longtime pollster and strategist for House Republican leaders. And, Winston added, Republicans may have lost female voters by 8 percentage points in the 2022 midterm elections, but they lost them by 19 points in 2018.

If inflation and economic concerns remain elevated, he added, the 2024 elections will be about the economy, not abortion or guns.

Republicans greeted the abortion-drug ruling on Friday, by Judge Matthew J. Kacsmaryk of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, with near total silence. The judge gave the Biden administration seven days to appeal, and on Monday, senior executives of more than 250 pharmaceutical and biotech companies pleaded with the courts to nullify the ruling with a scorching condemnation of Kacsmaryk’s reasoning.

Most anti-abortion advocates are not backing down. Katie Glenn Daniel, the state policy director for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, one of the most powerful anti-abortion groups, said Wisconsin’s results were more about anti-abortion forces being badly outspent than about ideology. In her state, Florida, she noted, Democrats scorched Republicans with advertising in 2022 saying they planned to ban abortion without exceptions. Republicans, from Gov. Ron DeSantis on down, easily prevailed that November.

Republicans need to keep pressing with abortion restrictions that will affect Democratic states as well as Republican ones, she said.

“A national minimum standard is incredibly important. Without it there will continue to be late-term abortions, and governors like Gavin Newsom are very motivated to force his views on the rest of the country,” she said of California’s Democratic governor.

Last week, the Florida state Senate approved legislation pushing the state’s ban on abortion from the current 15 weeks into pregnancy to six weeks. If the state’s House of Representatives approves it, DeSantis has said he will sign it. If DeSantis runs for president as expected, his signature would thrust abortion squarely into the 2024 race for the White House.

Last year, John P. Feehery, a veteran Republican leadership aide in the House, urged his party to find a defensible position on abortion that included flexibility on abortion pills, allowed early pregnancies to be terminated and detailed a coherent position on exceptions for rape, incest and health concerns. He said Monday that he was repeatedly told abortion would be a state-level issue and federal candidates should just stay quiet.

“They didn’t want to do the hard work on abortion,” he said, blaming “a lack of leadership” in the party that still has the Republican position muddled.

Guns are another issue where silence is not working. The shooting in Louisville, which left six dead, including the gunman, and eight wounded, kept the issue of guns in the spotlight after last week’s heated showdown in Tennessee — and before a three-day gathering of the National Rifle Association on Friday in Indianapolis. The Kentucky attack was the 15th mass shooting this year in which four or more victims were killed, the largest total in a year’s first 100 days since 2009, according to a USA Today/Associated Press/Northeastern University database.

“You can’t stop paying attention after one horrible event happens. You have to watch what happens afterward,” said Rep. Maxwell Frost, 26, a Florida Democrat who last year became the first member of Generation Z to be elected to the House.

Voices for compromise are beginning to bubble up, in some cases from surprising sources. Carol Tobias, president of the National Right to Life Committee, one of the country’s largest anti-abortion groups, said Monday that even she was “somewhat concerned” that the Republican Party might be getting ahead of the voters on abortion. Her organization has drafted model legislation to ban abortion at the state level in every case but when the life of the mother is in grave danger. But, Tobias said, that legislation comes with language to extend those exceptions to the “hard cases,” pregnancies that result from rape or incest, or that might harm a mother’s health.

“We’ve always known the American public does not support abortion for all nine months of a pregnancy,” she said. “They want some limits. We are trying to find those limits.”

She added, “If we can only at this time save 95% of the babies, I am happy to support that legislation.”

Volcano eruption in Russia’s Kamchatka spews vast ash clouds

Associated Press

Volcano eruption in Russia’s Kamchatka spews vast ash clouds

Associated Press – April 11, 2023

Smoke and ash are visible during the the Shiveluch volcano’s eruption on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, Tuesday, April 11, 2023. Shiveluch, one of Russia’s most active volcanoes, erupted Tuesday, spewing clouds of ash 20 kilometers into the sky and covering broad areas with ash. (Alexander Ledyayev via AP)

MOSCOW (AP) — A volcano erupted early Tuesday on Russia’s far eastern Kamchatka Peninsula, spewing clouds of dust 20 kilometers (65,600 feet) into the sky and covering broad areas with ash.

The ash cloud from the eruption of Shiveluch, one of Kamchatka’s most active volcanoes, extended over 500 kilometers (more than 300 miles) northwest and engulfed several villages in grey volcanic dust.

Officials closed the skies over the area to aircraft. Local authorities advised residents to stay indoors and shut schools in several affected communities. Two villages had their power supplies cut for a few hours until emergency crews restored them.

Ash fell on 108,000 square kilometers (41,699 square miles) of territory, according to the regional branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Geophysical Survey. Scientists described the fallout as the biggest in nearly 60 years.

The village of Klyuchi, which is located about 50 kilometers (some 30 miles) from the volcano, was covered by an 8-centimeter (3-inch) layer of dust. Residents posted videos showing the ash cloud plunging the area into darkness.

Kamchatka Gov. Vladimir Solodov said there was no need for mass evacuation, but added that some residents who have health issues could be temporarily evacuated.

Shiveluch has two parts, the 3,283-meter (10,771-foot) Old Shiveluch, and the smaller, highly active Young Shiveluch.

The Kamchatka Peninsula, which extends into the Pacific Ocean about 6,600 kilometers (4,000 miles) east of Moscow, is one of the world’s most concentrated area of geothermal activity, with about 30 active volcanoes.