Reuters
Exclusive-Russian missiles in Ukraine have failure rate of up to 60%, U.S. officials say
Phil Stewart – March 24, 2022
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion.
Since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russia has failed to achieve basic objectives such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force despite a vastly larger armed forces.
The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not provide evidence to support the assessment and did not disclose what precisely was driving high Russian missile failure rates.
Reuters was unable to independently verify the figures.
Though Reuters could not determine what a standard failure rate would be for air-launched cruise missiles, two experts interviewed by Reuters said any failure rate of 20% and above would be considered high.
The Kremlin says that what it calls a “special military operation” is going to plan and that Russia will achieve all of its aims. It casts the United States as an “empire of lies” which has unleashed an information war on Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined immediate comment and suggested Reuters approach the defense ministry which did not immediately respond to phone calls and a written request for comment.
In recent days, Russia’s defense ministry has lauded the professionalism and missile technology of the armed forces. It says claims of failures are misleading propaganda distributed by Russia’s enemies headed by the United States.
MISSILE FAILURES
U.S. defense officials told reporters this week that the Pentagon assesses that Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles of all kinds since the war began. The U.S. officials have so far not said how many of those hit their targets and how many failed to do so.
Citing U.S. intelligence, three U.S. officials said the United States estimated that Russia’s failure rate varied day-to-day, depended on the type of missile being launched, and could sometimes exceed 50%. Two of them said it reached as high as 60%.
One of the officials said the intelligence showed that Russia’s air-launched cruise missiles had a failure rate in the 20% to 60% range, depending on the day.
Russia has been seen fielding two types of air-launched cruise missiles in Ukraine, the Kh-555 and Kh-101, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank’s Missile Defense Project.
Failures can include anything from launch failures to a missile failing to explode on impact.
The United States believes Russia fired air-launched cruise missiles from Russian airspace earlier this month when it attacked a Ukrainian military base near the Polish border, and one of the U.S. officials told Reuters there was a particularly high failure rate during this attack. The strike killed 35 people, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Missile attacks have been a feature of Russia’s invasion, with Russia announcing strikes against military targets including weapons depots.
The invasion has killed thousands and driven a quarter of Ukraine’s 44 million people from their homes. The bombardment has hit residential areas, schools and hospitals in Ukrainian cities including Kharkiv and the besieged port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov.
Russia says the operation was necessary because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia while Russian speakers were being persecuted in Ukraine. Moscow denies it is targeting civilians.
(Reporting by Phil Stewart; Additional reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mary Milliken and Daniel Wallis; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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The Week
Up to 60 percent of Russian missiles in Ukraine are failing, U.S. assesses
Peter Weber, Senior editor – March 25, 2022
Russia has been trying to make up for its setbacks on the ground in Ukraine with missiles and bombs, and the Russians have launched at least 1,200 missiles “of all stripes and sizes” in the first 28 days of their invasion, a senior U.S. defense official said Wednesday. But not all of those missiles are hitting their marks. Three U.S. officials told Reuters on Thursday that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60 percent for some of the precision-guided missiles it’s using to attack Ukraine.
“Such a high failure rate can include anything from launch failures to a missile failing to explode on impact,” Reuters reports. “The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve what most could consider basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force, despite the apparent strength of its military against Ukraine’s much smaller armed forces.”
The failure rate for Russia’s missiles varies from day to day and depends on the type of missile being launched, the U.S. officials told Reuters, citing U.S. intelligence. Air-launched cruise missiles, for example, are failing at a rate of 20 percent to 60 percent. Two experts told Reuters that any failure rate above 20 percent would be considered high.
But Russia still has “the vast majority of their assembled available inventory of surface-to-air missiles and cruise missiles available to them,” the senior Pentagon official said Wednesday. “I mean, they’ve expended a lot, but they put a lot into the effort. And they still have an awful lot left.”
And even 40 percent of 1,200 missiles would do a lot of damage. On Friday, Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that Russia destroyed “the largest of the remaining fuel depot of the Ukrainian armed forces,” outside Kyiv with “sea-launched Kalibr precision cruise missiles.”
Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine isn’t impressing the Pentagon. “I think with a high degree of certainty that Russia will emerge from Ukraine weaker than it went into the conflict,” Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl said Thursday. “Militarily weaker, economically weaker, politically and geopolitically weaker, and more isolated.” Kahl added that an upcoming Pentagon defense strategy document would asses Russia as an “acute threat” that, unlike China, poses no long-term systems challenge to the U.S.
Related:
Business Insider
As many as 60% of Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine are failing to launch or don’t explode on impact, US officials say
Sophia Ankel – March 25, 2022
- Russia has used more than 1,100 missiles in Ukraine since its invasion last month, Reuters reported.
- But missiles used by Russia are seeing failure rates as high as 60%, US officials said.
- The officials were not able to provide Reuters with evidence of their assessment.
As many as 60% of Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine fail to launch or don’t explode on impact, three US officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue, told Reuters.
The Pentagon believes that Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles since its full invasion of Ukraine just over a month ago, US officials told reporters this week, according to Reuters.
But the precision-guided missiles, including air-launched cruise missiles, fired by Russian forces are seeing failure rates as high as 60%, two of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. One official estimated the rate could be as high as 50%.
The officials said that the failure rate depended on the type of missile being launched and varied day-to-day. They did not say why the rate could be so high, nor did they provide Reuters with any evidence of their assessment.
Since the start of the conflict, images of Russian missiles and bombs lodged in Ukraine’s streets and buildings have emerged online. Insider was unable to verify them.
Last week, Ukrainian forces captured 24 intact Russian missiles near the northwestern city of Hostomel and fired them back at Russian troops.
This tactic has been used before by Ukrainian forces, focusing on repairing damaged Russian equipment captured in the fighting and then sending them back into battle.