The next stage of Russia’s secular decline comes in 2023

Los Angeles Times

Op-Ed: The next stage of Russia’s secular decline comes in 2023

Simon Johnson – January 3, 2023

People watch as Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his speech after a ceremony to sign the treaties for four regions of Ukraine to join Russia in the Moscow's Kremlin, during a meeting in Sevastopol, Crimea, Friday, Sept. 30, 2022. The signing of the treaties making the four regions part of Russia follows the completion of the Kremlin-orchestrated "referendums." (AP Photo)
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech in September declaring the annexation of four regions of Ukraine. (Associated Press)

After a year of big surprises, led by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the global spike in inflation rates, and the collapse of cryptocurrency ventures, what kind of year will 2023 prove to be? This kind of short-run question is hard to answer because repercussions of global events can spread so quickly and unpredictably. But the last 12 months highlighted one major trend that will shape what happens next, in 2023 and beyond: the decline of Russia.

Russian aggression is nothing new. Moscow has been invading other countries since the mid-1990s and has occupied parts of Ukrainian territory since 2014. But the brutality of Russia’s attacks in Ukraine since last February and the most recent phase, destroying civilian energy infrastructure, is widely seen as amounting to a war crime. It is unlikely to change the course of the war, which Russia is losing.

In the bigger picture, Russia has again entered a period of secular decline, during which it will have limited access to Western investment, technology or consumer goods. Russia’s empires have collapsed before, in 1917-18 and again when the Soviet Union imploded in 1989-91. In both cases, the collapse took a while to get going, and then proved quite complete. Of course, historically Russia has also been able to reassert control over time, and during the 1990s, by getting a lot of help from Western companies.

This time, too, we should expect a long struggle for power within Russia, with serious existential risks for the world, including who ends up controlling Russian nuclear weapons. But the more direct economic impact will be reflected in the world energy market.

Demand for Russian fossil fuels is way down. Before its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia produced about 10.8 million barrels of oil per day, of which around 8 million were exported either as crude or refined products. The sharp decline in Russian economic activity means that more oil is available for export, but the European Union, the United States, and their allies are now buying crude from other suppliers — and the same will be true for refined products from February 2023.

The International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil exports will fall to around 6 million barrels per day over 2023-24. Over the medium term, India might buy 1-2 million barrels and China could sop up the rest — assuming both countries want to become more dependent on a malevolent and unreliable partner.

Purchases by India, China, and a few others can still result in a lot of free cash flow and tax revenue for Russia. Whoever leads Russia will put much of these proceeds into building and buying weapons — including missiles with which it can hit a wide range of countries from long distance. NATO member countries are, one hopes, protected to some extent by the threat of retaliation, but Russia can be expected to engage in sabotage and other deniable attacks on Western energy infrastructure and similar vulnerable strategic targets.

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was careful not to attack Western Europe and the U.S. too directly (and vice versa). Instead, both sides used proxy wars and other forms of pressure. This time, however, we should expect much more direct confrontation. The Russian elite have boxed themselves into a corner, with a bizarre set of beliefs — right-wing nationalism on steroids — and long-range weapons. Giving ground to these extremists will only embolden them to take more.

The need to limit over time how much cash Russia can spend on aggression is why the price cap on Russian oil exports is so important. The evidence so far is that this is working as intended.

But further measures are needed, including accelerated investments in renewable energy to reduce world demand for oil. If we continue to depend on Russia and its allies in the OPEC+ cartel, the ability to disrupt our economies will remain immense. There is now a pressing national security dimension to the energy transition.

High inflation in the 1970s had multiple causes, beginning with tight economies in the 1960s and the Vietnam War. But the problems were exacerbated by two oil price shocks, in 1973 and 1979. OPEC+ members understand that they have the power to do this again, at a time of their choosing — or the next time Russia asks for a favor.

Oil demand and supply are quite unresponsive to oil prices in the short run, but historically quite responsive over five to 10 years. In 2023 and beyond, the West needs to focus more intently on reducing demand for fossil fuels, particularly oil, and increasing the supply of alternative energy sources outside the control of Russia and OPEC.

Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is a professor at MIT Sloan School of Management.

Russia fires dozens of missiles across several Ukrainian cities

Yahoo! News

Russia fires dozens of missiles across several Ukrainian cities

Niamh Cavanagh, Reporter – December 29, 2022

Local resident Yana embraces a friend as they stand next to her mother's house, which was damaged during a Russian missile strike in Kyiv
Local resident Yana embraces a friend as they stand next to her mother’s house, which was damaged during a Russian missile strike in Kyiv on Thursday. (Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters)

LONDON — Ukraine faced a barrage of missiles on Thursday morning in one of the biggest bombardments the country has faced since Russia invaded earlier this year.

According to Oleksii Gromov, a Ukrainian general, Russia launched more than 69 missiles “aimed at critical and energy infrastructure.” Of the dozens launched, 54 were shot down by Ukraine’s air defenses, he said.

A map of Ukraine showing the cities hit by Russian missile attacks on Thursday.
Yasin Demirci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Three people in the capital, Kyiv, were hospitalized following the explosions, including a 14-year-old girl. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that 40% of the city was left without power due to the strikes. “Charge your phones and other devices,” he wrote on Telegram via translation. “Stock up on water.” He added that engineers were working on restoring power back to the capital.

In the south, missiles were shot down in the regions of Mykolaiv and Odesa. Meanwhile, several explosions were reported in the western city of Lviv. No casualties were immediately reported.

Rescuers clear debris of homes destroyed by a missile attack in the outskirts of Kyiv.
Rescuers clear debris of homes destroyed by a missile attack in the outskirts of Kyiv. (Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)

Ukraine’s foreign minister hit out at Russia for launching missiles during the holidays, describing it as “senseless barbarism.” Earlier Thursday, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said that more than 120 missiles had been launched.

Neighboring Belarus’s Defense Ministry said it had downed a Ukrainian missile on Thursday morning. The S-300 Soviet-era air defense missile was shot down near the village of Harbacha, just 9 miles from the border with Ukraine. Oleg Konovalov, a military official, played down the strike, stating that it was “absolutely nothing to worry about. Unfortunately, these things happen.”

People take shelter inside a metro station in Kyiv.
People take shelter inside a metro station during massive Russian missile attacks in Kyiv on Thursday. (Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters)

Similarly in November, an S-300 that accidentally landed in NATO member Poland, leaving two people dead, was likely fired by Ukrainian air defense. The missile sparked fear that there had been an escalation in tensions.

Russia has upped its airstrikes on Ukraine since October when the Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects the peninsula of Crimea to mainland Russia, was targeted. The bridge was partially damaged after a truck exploded. Russia blamed Ukrainian intelligence for the attacks and has made several arrests since the explosion.

A search and rescue worker sits amid debris.
A search and rescue worker is seen sitting amid debris following the missile attacks across Ukraine. (Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Trapped in the Trenches in Ukraine

The New Yorker – January 2 & 9, 2023 Issue

Trapped in the Trenches in Ukraine

Along the country’s seven-hundred-mile front line, constant artillery fire and drone surveillance have made it excruciatingly difficult to maneuver.

By Luke Mogelson, Reporter at Large – December 26, 2022

A soldier holding a gun in Ukraine photographed by David Guttenfelder.

Photographs by David Guttenfelder for The New Yorker

Listen to this storyhttps://audm.herokuapp.com/player-embed?pub=newyorker&articleID=63a1dfd215019d5497a6ac56

One Sunday in early October, I had lunch at an outdoor restaurant on Andriyivsky Descent, in downtown Kyiv, with a thirty-seven-year-old American who went by the code name Doc. I’d rented an apartment on the same cobblestone street back in March, while the Ukrainian military was repulsing a Russian assault on the city. At the time, the neighborhood had been deserted, and a portentous quiet was broken only by sporadic explosions and whining air-raid sirens. Now Andriyivsky Descent was thronged with couples and families promenading in the autumn sun. Local artists sold oil paintings on the sidewalk. A trumpeter and an accordionist played for tips. Doc sipped a Negroni. Long-bearded, square-jawed, and barrel-chested, he wore a green tactical jacket and a baseball cap embroidered with the Ukrainian national trident. A thick scar spanned his neck, from a bar fight in North Carolina during which someone had sliced his throat with a box cutter. Toward the end of our meal, an older man in a leather fedora approached our table. “International Legion?” he asked, in accented English. I pointed at Doc; the man extended his hand and told him, “I just wanted to say thank you.”

Doc scrutinized his glass, embarrassed. After the man left, I remarked that such recognition must feel good. “It feels weird,” Doc replied. He’d been a marine in his twenties, and had fought, as a machine gunner, in Iraq and Afghanistan. It had always made him uncomfortable when American civilians thanked him for his service. When his contract ended, in 2011, he’d been eager to put war behind him. “It was a hard cut,” he said. “I was never going back.” Shortly after being discharged, he moved from North Carolina to New York City, where he’d been accepted at Columbia University. Using the G.I. Bill, he majored in computer science, with a minor in linguistics. He did two summer internships at Google, and when he graduated the company hired him full time.

While Doc was working as a software engineer, in Manhattan, his view of Big Tech progressively dimmed. He was disillusioned by the Presidency of Donald Trump, and he blamed social media, in part, for the country’s polarization. This past January, he notified Google that he was quitting. He was unsure what he’d do next. “I didn’t really have direction,” he recalled. Then, on February 24th, Russia invaded Ukraine. From Doc’s perspective, “it was pretty serendipitous.”

The next afternoon, he visited the Ukrainian consulate in midtown. The reception area was swarmed with Ukrainian immigrants seeking information, and Doc was asked to come back after the weekend. That Sunday, Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, announced the creation of an International Legion and issued an “appeal to foreign citizens” to join. Volunteers would be defending not only Ukraine, Zelensky insisted: “This is the beginning of a war against Europe, against European structures, against democracy, against basic human rights, against a global order of law, rules, and peaceful coexistence.” When Doc returned to the consulate, an official advised him to go to Poland, giving him a phone number for someone who would guide him from there.

Two weeks later, Doc landed in Warsaw with a duffle bag containing medical supplies and body armor. He texted the number and was directed to a motel near the Ukrainian border. Several groups of men, “obviously military guys,” loitered in the parking lot. A few had unrolled sleeping bags in the lobby. Nobody would talk to Doc. Paranoia about spies and infiltrators was acute. The previous day, Russian cruise missiles had targeted the main training camp for the International Legion, in Yavoriv, a Ukrainian city about an hour’s drive away. Though no foreigners had died, dozens of Ukrainians were killed. A friend of mine—a Canadian Army veteran who’d joined the Legion—had survived the attack. When I’d reached him by phone, he’d described the scene as “a bloodbath.”

Doc had been waiting at the motel for about six hours when a cargo van pulled up. The driver told him to get in. “That’s all he said,” Doc remembered. “I was, like, All right. Fuck it.”

Half a dozen volunteers from South America crowded into the back with him. They were brought to an abandoned school and then, eventually, to the base in Yavoriv. Of the hundreds of foreigners who had been at the facility when it was hit, many had returned to Poland. According to my Canadian friend, this was for the best. Although some of the men had been “legit, values-driven, warrior-mentality” veterans, others were “shit”: “gun nuts,” “right-wing bikers,” “ex-cops who are three hundred pounds.” Two people had accidentally discharged their weapons inside his tent in less than a week. A “chaotic” lack of discipline had been exacerbated by “a fair amount of cocaine.”

The attack functioned as a filter. “It was almost comical to watch all these tough guys just shit themselves and run away,” my friend said. By the time Doc reached Yavoriv, a higher proportion of the volunteers were committed fighters. The main branch of the Legion fell under the purview of the Ukrainian Army, but the G.U.R., the Defense Ministry’s intelligence directorate, was also recruiting foreigners for specialized assignments. After an interview with a G.U.R. officer, Doc was placed on a thirteen-man team composed of Brazilians, Portuguese, Brits, and others. They were deployed to Sumy, in the north, to conduct reconnaissance on armored columns moving toward Kyiv.

A soldier in a vehicle approaches a rocket lodged in the road.

In April, Russian forces retreated from northern Ukraine in order to concentrate on the Donbas, in the east. The G.U.R. sent Doc and his comrades to a region there called Donetsk. The fighting intensified. Over the spring and summer, two members of Doc’s unit were killed and several injured. Others went home. When we met in Kyiv, his team had dwindled to five men, and the contraction reflected a broader trend. In March, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister had stated that twenty thousand people, from fifty-two countries, had expressed interest in signing up for the International Legion. That month in Kyiv, I’d met numerous Americans and Europeans eager to join the war effort, and a room in the train station had been dedicated to welcoming such new arrivals. The Legion refuses to disclose how many members it now counts, but it is nowhere near twenty thousand.

Many foreigners, no matter how seasoned or élite, were unprepared for the reality of combat in Ukraine: the front line, which extends for roughly seven hundred miles, features relentless, industrial-scale violence of a type unknown in Europe since the Second World War. The ordeal of weathering modern artillery for extended durations is distinct from anything that Western soldiers faced in Iraq or Afghanistan (where they enjoyed a monopoly on such firepower). “Once you’ve been dropped on heavy—ninety per cent of people can’t handle that, even if they’re combat-experienced,” Doc told me.

VIDEO FROM THE NEW YORKERIn Flow of Words: Translating the Trauma of War

At our lunch, Doc seemed conflicted himself about whether he would continue fighting. Two weeks later, though, he decided to return to Donetsk. I asked to go with him. The Ukrainian military has been extraordinarily opaque about how it is executing the war, and journalistic embeds are almost nonexistent. Despite the historic magnitude of the conflict, our concept of the battlefield derives largely from brief, edited video clips released by the government or posted by soldiers.

The G.U.R., however, appeared to exercise a degree of independence, and, rather unexpectedly, it allowed me to accompany Doc.

It was a ten-hour drive to the town where Doc’s team was based, not far from Pavlivka, a frontline village about fifty miles north of Mariupol. Most civilians had fled the area, and the landscape was now battered and pocked with craters. In May, the building where the foreigners had been living was struck by cluster munitions; a Portuguese fighter was gravely wounded, and shrapnel was lodged in Doc’s right buttock. Their current quarters, in a quaint brick house on the bank of a stream overgrown with reeds, resembled less a military billet than a communal squat. A salvaged barbecue grill stood in the yard; socks and underwear dried on a line. Logs split by a hatchet fuelled a wood-burning stove.

Doc went into the basement, which was teeming with ammunition boxes, anti-tank weapons, and rocket launchers, and unfolded a mat on the concrete floor. Tai, a former member of the New Zealand Defense Force, and T.Q., a German who had served in the French Foreign Legion, also slept down there. Another Kiwi, called Turtle, and a U.S. Army veteran whose code name was Herring occupied the first floor. Several Ukrainians lived upstairs, and a motley entourage of dogs and cats roamed the property. We’d shown up at dinnertime. In a cramped kitchen decorated with elaborately patterned wallpaper, the men took turns heating instant noodles and washing dishes. Black tarp was taped over every window: even faint traces of light could attract the attention of Russian surveillance drones. Nearby blasts had shattered some of the panes, chipped the walls, and opened gaping holes in an adjacent field. By way of welcome, Turtle cheerfully assured me of the advantage of residing in the basement: if a Russian missile hit the house, the stockpiled ordnance would provide the mercy of an “instant death.”

Turtle was the team’s leader. He’d enlisted in the New Zealand Army in 2002, when he was seventeen, done a tour in Afghanistan, and gone on to work in multiple countries as a private security contractor. An ethnic Maori, he had a forceful, gregarious personality that balanced sober professionalism with bombastic humor. His room had been the homeowner’s study, and later I found him sitting at a desk before a wall of books, writing on a notepad. He was planning the team’s next mission. In 2014, Vladimir Putin had backed a separatist rebellion in the Donbas. After Russia launched a full-scale invasion, in February, its control of the region expanded to Pavlivka; the Ukrainians retook the village in June, and since then a stalemate had prevailed. Because of the rural terrain—open farmland interspersed with occasional towns—a breakthrough from either direction would require troops to traverse sprawling fields exposed to enemy fire. Both Russia and Ukraine had focused their resources on more strategically vital theatres, so neither was equipped to mount such an offensive.

In lieu of major advances, the two sides vied to extend their presence by exploiting a network of parallel and perpendicular tree lines that divided up the no man’s land, or “gray zone,” between their fortified garrisons. “The tree lines offer concealment,” Turtle explained. “Nothing else here offers that ability to skirt around.” The team’s primary responsibility in Donetsk was reconnaissance: sneaking through the underbrush, probing the gray zone, locating the forwardmost Russian trenches, and establishing new positions for Ukrainian troops to backfill.

But the tactic of using the foliage to obscure their movements, Turtle told me, was expiring: “The leaves are falling. In a month’s time, there won’t be anything left.” Before that happened, he intended to secure one more tree line, which would give the Ukrainians a stronger footing from which to defend any winter assault on Pavlivka.

As Turtle described in granular detail various ridges, valleys, rivers, and roads, I was struck by how thoroughly he’d internalized the local geography. His family had been troubled, he said, when he’d begun referring to the town where we were as “home.” In New Zealand, he’d been “planning out the rest of my life with a girl.” Before coming to Ukraine, he’d ended the relationship, quit his job, and sold his house and car. “In hindsight, it was very selfish,” he acknowledged. Although he may have suggested to his friends and relatives that Russian atrocities—in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha and elsewhere—had instilled in him a sense of obligation, such moral posturing had been disingenuous. “It was just an excuse to be in this environment again,” Turtle said. If the “self-satisfaction” of testing his grit remained a factor, however, the months he’d spent in Ukraine had complicated his motives. “I actually do love these people and I love this country,” he said. “I can’t go home because this is home now. It really does feel that way.”

On one of the bookshelves, Turtle had lined up several hand grenades in front of a row of novels. I also noticed, hanging above the desk, a black tag with a barcode and the word “dead” on it.

I decided not to ask about it yet.

The first phase of the mission was to conduct aerial surveillance of the tree line—a duty that fell to the team’s thirty-year-old drone operator, Herring. After five years in the U.S. Army, Herring had become a deckhand on a purse seiner off the coast of Maine. He had the callused, knotty fingers typical of that trade, along with a shaved head and narrow, dark eyes that glinted with a readiness for mischief or danger. His nose had been slightly crooked since June, when it was broken in a blast in Kyiv.

In 2018, Herring had bought a drone and taught himself to locate schools of fish by tracking the whales and sharks that fed on them. When he realized that drones would play a role in Ukraine, he said, “it was hard to sit on the sidelines, knowing you could help.” He added that he had grown up in Illinois, and, “as a Midwestern dude, I’ve always hated Russia—the whole ‘Red Dawn’ thing.”

Two soldiers walk toward the ruins of an abandoned coal mine.

A few days after I arrived at the house, I accompanied Herring to a forward position within drone range of the target tree line. He was joined by Rambo, the leader of the Ukrainians who lived with the foreigners. The Ukrainians belonged to a reconnaissance company in the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which was responsible for the area around Pavlivka, and to which the foreigners were officially attached. Rambo was thin and scrappy, with a sly grin that seldom broke into laughter. He’d served three years in the Ukrainian Army directly after graduating from high school, in 2005. As a civilian, he’d been a pipe fitter for an engineering company that sent him to Europe, Africa, and the United States, where he’d learned rudimentary English.

Rambo and his men had moved in with Turtle’s team in August, after their own house, next door, was bombed. As we headed to the front in two dilapidated vehicles, we passed one building after another that had also been destroyed. Incinerated cars sat on the roadside. Missiles and rockets had lodged in the fields, their protruding metal tubes resembling strange bionic crops. We parked in the dystopian ruins of a coal mine whose silos, conveyors, and concrete warehouses had been severely shelled. Another soldier from the 72nd then transported us in a van to a wide tree line running toward the gray zone, where an air shaft led into underground tunnels.

Above the shaft, a utility room had been converted into a makeshift command center. A few Ukrainians monitored radio traffic from the trenches. Herring began preparing two compact drones and several improvised munitions: explosive material packed into short metal pipes that had been augmented with fins made on 3-D printers. An inverted nail emerged from the head of each pipe, serving as a firing pin; the fins caused the pipe to spiral vertically, pushing the nail into a blasting cap on impact. Sometimes, Herring weaponized his drones with disposable plastic cups containing hand grenades. “It’s a risky method, but it’s a method,” he said.

All across Ukraine, the proliferation of affordable, user-friendly drones has radically altered the battlefield. Herring had flown drones for hundreds of hours in Donetsk, dropping explosives on Russian positions and identifying enemy coördinates for Ukrainian artillery. Russian forces use commercial drones, too, but to a lesser extent. They rely more heavily on Orlans—military-grade, fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles that can be flown for longer periods of time. The limited battery life and transmission range of commercial drones preclude their pilots from operating them too remotely. Moreover, the pilots must avoid any type of shelter, such as a house or a bunker, where the signal might be obstructed.

This meant that Herring and Rambo needed to move forward from the air shaft. It was preferable to do so at night, both to mitigate their exposure and because one of the drones had a thermal camera, and spotting the heat signatures of bodies and tanks was more difficult during the day. At around 8 p.m., the men departed on foot, wearing night-vision devices. I followed, using a borrowed set.

In the grainy, green world of the phosphor screen, the stars gleamed like bioluminescent plankton. Herring and Rambo moved deliberately between the black silhouettes of trees, many of which had been splintered and contorted by artillery. I was looking at a tilled field to our left when a shimmering tail arced overhead, collided with another streaking light, and radiantly detonated. Herring said that it was a Russian missile intercepted by an anti-aircraft weapon.

We soon stopped advancing through the trees. While Rambo kneeled amid the deadwood, pulling security, Herring stepped out from under the canopy, draping a poncho over his head to hide the glow of his controller’s monitor. The drone’s four miniature rotors whirred into action, lifting it into the sky. Artillery whistled back and forth, over the field. After a while, I heard Herring curse.

“Jammers,” he told Rambo.

The Russians and the Ukrainians employ two main countermeasures against each other’s drones. One is a futuristic-looking contraption, fired like a rifle, whose transmissions force emergency landings. The other is a signal-jamming system that scrambles, over a broad zone, the satellite networks on which drones depend for navigation. Herring had run up against the latter, which had triggered an automatic response in his drone to race in the opposite direction, depleting its battery. He eventually retrieved it—correcting its course with small flicks of the joystick—and we returned to the air shaft. Although multi-rotor drones are relatively inexpensive, thermal ones are not, and Herring could not risk losing his.

Apart from their weapons, the foreigners had acquired much of their equipment on their own. Doc had bought helmets, scopes, binoculars, range finders, ear protection, ammo pouches, and other essential items for the team. Each night-vision device had cost thousands of dollars. T.Q. had traded a bottle of whiskey for American smoke grenades. Their two vehicles—a pickup truck and an S.U.V., both Nissans—had been donated but were forever breaking down, requiring parts and repairs.

Back at the command center, a soft-spoken Ukrainian officer told Rambo the brigade had received information that the Russians were preparing an attack. Rambo nodded, and then the officer turned to Herring. For a moment, they regarded each other uncertainly. At first blush, Herring could seem abrasive. His booming voice was seldom modulated, his sense of humor often lewd. I wondered what the officer thought about this brash American.

He had just one question, it turned out: “You will fight with us?”

“Of course,” Herring said.

The men clasped hands.

Trust between international volunteers and the Ukrainian military was crucial yet precarious. Language was an obvious hurdle. When Doc first rotated to Donetsk, a Portuguese team member whose parents were Ukrainian would translate from Ukrainian to Portuguese, which a Brazilian member would translate to Spanish, which an American member would translate to English. Each link in that chain had since left the country. Turtle had persuaded a Ukrainian friend who spoke English to come to Donetsk, but he was a civilian, and so he mostly stayed at the house.

Another persistent obstacle was the fact that both Ukraine and the Legion were constantly losing and replacing men. The 72nd Mechanized Brigade had assumed control of the area in August. Before that, the foreigners had worked with another brigade, the 53rd, which had fully integrated them into its operations and had furnished them with coveted Javelins. On near-daily missions, the team had pushed forward Ukrainian positions, ambushed enemy tanks, and planted mines behind Russian lines.

The 72nd had shown less interest in collaboration. Before coming to Pavlivka, the brigade had been stationed in Bakhmut, another city in Donetsk, where an enormous number of soldiers had died, and even more had been wounded. The trauma of Bakhmut had unnerved many of the survivors, and they now seemed wary of outsiders.

While the 72nd was settling in, Doc had gone on vacation, to the Spanish party island of Ibiza. Before his return, the team had undertaken to secure a tree line where, Herring’s drone surveillance indicated, Russian soldiers occupied a trench system. The foreigners left Pavlivka late in the evening. Although they had briefed the 72nd on their route, a Ukrainian unit opened fire on them as they approached. The team shot back. “We won, they didn’t,” Turtle told me.

While the Ukrainians evacuated their casualties, the team proceeded with its mission. Turtle and Tai established a machine-gun position in a field; everybody else continued on foot. T.Q. and Herring were there, as were four Americans, a Frenchman called Nick, and a third Kiwi, Dominic Abelen. The men followed a trench until they came upon a complex of dugouts and bunkers full of Russian troops—far more than they had anticipated. Most were asleep or just waking up. A frenzied close-quarters fight ensued. Using rifles and grenades, the team killed at least a dozen soldiers. Turtle and Tai, from across the field, assailed additional Russians with the machine gun.

A drone controlled by a soldier flies above a crumbling structure.

As the sun rose, and the foreigners lost the advantage of their night vision, they became overwhelmed. Abelen was shot in the head while attempting to withdraw from the trench. He died instantly. One of the Americans, a twenty-four-year-old Army veteran named Joshua Jones, was wounded in the thigh. A bullet pierced Nick’s hindside. Another American, a former marine who went by Saint, was struck in his elbow and foot.

Jones, bleeding profusely, screamed for help. But Russian mortars had begun to zero in on the machine-gun position, and any effort to retrieve him or Abelen would have been suicidal. The team retreated, linked up with Turtle and Tai, and delivered Nick and Saint to a hospital. A round had smashed into Turtle’s chest plate, and Herring found a bullet hole in the crotch of his pants. That afternoon, they attempted to return to the trench, but heavy shelling forced them back. When Herring flew a drone over the scene, the bodies were still there. Two days later, the Russians had collected them.

The debacle had further strained the team’s rapport with the 72nd. No Ukrainians had died in the exchange of friendly fire, and Turtle didn’t know how many had been injured, but he allowed, “That might be why some people don’t like us in this area anymore.” The leeriness was mutual. Members of the brigade’s reconnaissance company—with which the team was supposed to coördinate—had followed the foreigners partway through the tree line, and had agreed to provide additional backup if anything went wrong. Yet none of the Ukrainians had joined the battle with the Russians. (One of them later told me that their radio had malfunctioned and they had not heard the team’s call for help.)

“There’s always gonna be some soreness there,” Turtle said. While other Legion members were less restrained about their frustration, Turtle hewed to a philosophical detachment that I came to appreciate as central to his efficacy as a soldier. “Until then, we’d been lucky,” he told me. “And our luck ran out that night.” He was most concerned about the fallout within his team. After Jones and Abelen were killed, fear and trepidation had crept in, eroding the unit’s esprit de corps. Shaking his head at the memory, Turtle said of the trench, “I don’t know if we ever got out of that thing.”

The acting commander of the Ukrainian reconnaissance company, code-named Grek, was a thirty-year-old historian who had written a doctoral thesis on ancient Thebes. He and his men (with the exception of Rambo’s group) were stationed in another house in town, a short drive away. As an undergraduate at Kyiv University, in 2012 and 2013, Grek had spent one day a week attending a reserve-officer-training-corps program. At the time, a year of military service was mandatory in Ukraine, and many young academics opted to earn their commissions rather than be conscripted. When Putin launched his campaign to take Kyiv, Grek was assigned to the reconnaissance company, which was then commanded by an experienced older officer. After the ferocious combat in Bakhmut, the unit was reduced from a hundred and twenty-eight men to eighty-two. Grek and his superior both suffered concussions in an artillery strike, and the latter never fully recovered; shortly after Grek was released from the hospital, he was temporarily put in charge of the company. A month later, when the 72nd rotated to Pavlivka, another experienced officer was sent to relieve Grek. But the day after the officer arrived he was fatally wounded by a Russian shell.

When I noted the irony of Grek’s becoming an officer to avoid military service, only to end up a frontline commander, he said, “Times change, people change.” Nevertheless, he retained the languid demeanor of a scholar. His posture was hunched, his expression one of aloof amusement. “I’m not a professional soldier,” he told me more than once.

Two days after Herring’s drone mission, Turtle and Grek visited the same tree line. Turtle wanted to create new positions there, deeper into the gray zone, which would offer better angles for fire support during the impending operation. Grek was unconvinced that the benefit warranted the risk, and they had agreed to take a look, together, at the forwardmost trench.

On our way to the coal mine, Grek asked Turtle, “You stay the winter?”

Turtle laughed. “Yeah, that’s when all the fun happens.”

“Crazy man. I’ll probably go to New Zealand.”

“We’ll change passports—you go to New Zealand, I’ll stay here.”

We switched to a four-wheel-drive truck at the mine, and Turtle and I rode in the bed as it followed muddy tracks past the air shaft with the command center. When the truck could go no farther, we walked. Rain made the ground a slippery morass. After a while, we reached a Ukrainian encampment with a few soldiers, hand-dug foxholes, and a fire pit under camouflage netting. Grek was talking to an infantryman with gray stubble and glasses when a shell crashed in the fields. We took cover in a shallow bunker reinforced with logs and scrap lumber. A rusty pot sat over dead coals; an archaic telephone was connected to a wire that ran back to the air shaft. The bespectacled man introduced himself as Grandpa. He was a fifty-four-year-old farmer who had not left the encampment for two and a half months.

When the artillery subsided, Grek and Turtle resumed moving up the tree line. The path dropped into a narrow trench, and, after slogging through ankle-deep water for ten minutes or so, we arrived at the terminus. A middle-aged soldier was posted there; as he and Grek spoke in Ukrainian, Turtle filmed them with a GoPro mounted on his helmet. (Later, at the house, his friend would translate the exchange for him.)

“Everything beyond here is mined and booby-trapped with trip wires,” the soldier warned Grek. “Some of our guys were already blown up.”

“We’ll go with de-miners,” Grek said.

“They already tried. That’s who was blown up.”

There were other dangers: the tree line narrowed and thinned significantly, offering scant protection, and it sloped into a defilade, ceding the high ground to Russian snipers. “It’s not a good idea to go down there,” the soldier said. “I’m telling you like it is.”

“A lot of mines,” Grek said, in English.

Turtle shrugged. “We’re going. That’s just happening.”

On our way back, we stopped at another Ukrainian encampment, where a soldier with a digital tablet pulled up drone images and provided a detailed overview of the proximate Russian positions, their likely directions of attack, and how to defend against them.

“You’re the commander of this zone?” Grek asked.

“Me?” the soldier said. “I’m just a dancer.”

His name was Vitaliy, and before the war he’d belonged to a Ukrainian folk-dance ensemble.

Many of the professional soldiers in the 72nd had been killed or injured in Bakhmut. Conscripts had replenished the ranks. Some had attended a three-week basic infantry course in the U.K., with instructors from across Europe, but most had received only minimal training before being given Kalashnikovs and dispatched to the front. I had watched Turtle and the team train several dozen Ukrainians in close-quarters battle, or C.Q.B., a foundational doctrine among Western militaries for urban combat: how to enter rooms, move as a squad, shoot from windows. The Ukrainians were unaccustomed to handling rifles or wearing body armor, and, when Turtle asked if any of them were familiar with C.Q.B., only one raised his hand.

At the same time, the team had learned from the Ukrainians, especially when it came to the historical anachronism of trench warfare. Once, while the foreigners were visiting a trench that came under heavy bombardment, they had scrambled into a foxhole that was eight feet deep, in an L shape, with stairs and a roof of felled timber. For the next five hours, as Russian tank rounds and mortars burst around them, they had shared the shelter with an older infantryman who had been fighting in the Donbas since 2014. T.Q., the German who’d served in the French Foreign Legion, told me, “If he hadn’t had the experience and taken the time to dig out that position—with enough space not only for himself but also for other people—we would have had casualties.”

Staying alive in a Ukrainian trench requires a daunting combination of stamina, vigilance, and luck. The daily misery induces a mental fatigue that dulls alertness and subverts morale. But even the most disciplined soldier, with the most elaborate foxhole, can fall victim to a well-aimed munition, and the menace of sudden death plagues every Ukrainian infantryman charged with the imperative, terrible job of holding the line.

Soldiers stand in a dark staircase with a Ukrainian woman.

Before we left the encampment where Vitaliy, the dancer, was stationed, I gave him my card. He later texted me a photo of himself onstage, brandishing a sword in Cossack garb. It was an image, in more ways than one, of another world and another time. When I checked in on Vitaliy a few weeks later, he was in the hospital: a tank round had landed in his dugout, wounding him and killing a comrade.

I expressed my condolences, and Vitaliy replied, “Yes, but this is war.” He planned to return to the front as soon as possible.

When Turtle and I got back to the house, there was news. The remains of Joshua Jones had been recovered, as part of a prisoner exchange in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia. CNN had aired footage of the handover which showed Ukrainian forensic investigators, in biohazard suits, carrying a body bag and a white flag away from a group of Russian soldiers. The U.S. State Department had announced that Jones would “soon be returned” to his home town, in Tennessee.

The team’s reaction was subdued, which confused me. When I retired to the basement, I found Tai, the former New Zealand Defense Force member, lying on his mat with one of the cats purring on his chest. Since I had arrived, Tai had been the hardest team member to draw out. The twenty-nine-year-old son of Chinese immigrants, he was sleeved in tattoos that included, on his right hand, a five-petal orchid—the symbol of his family’s native Hong Kong. “Tai” was a facetious reference to Taiwan, which many volunteers believed would be attacked by an emboldened China unless Russia was humiliated in Ukraine.

After some stilted small talk, I brought up Jones, and asked Tai whether he felt any sense of closure.

“I’m concerned about my mate,” Tai said. He meant Dominic Abelen, whose body remained in Russian custody. Tai had known Abelen since 2017, when they served together in Iraq. After Tai and Turtle joined the International Legion, in August, Abelen requested that the G.U.R. assign them to Donetsk.

The two Kiwis both spoke of Abelen with reverence, describing him as an expert soldier whose courage and enthusiasm had been a reliable source of inspiration for his comrades. Before the unit had left the house on Abelen’s final mission, he’d given Turtle the black tag, marked “dead,” that I’d noticed in Turtle’s room. It was a digital I.D. that New Zealanders carry with them on deployments. “You’ll need that,” Abelen had joked.

After Abelen was killed, Tai had informed the G.U.R. that he was going home. He spent a week in a hotel in Kyiv and bought a bus ticket to Poland. The morning that he was to leave, however, he returned to Donetsk. He’d joined the Legion to escape his “mundane and boring” life in New Zealand, he told me, where he’d worked as a mail carrier since being discharged from the Army. In the end, the prospect of resuming that existence had been more intimidating than staying in Ukraine. “I knew that, as soon as I got home, there’s nothing there I’d rather do,” he said. “So I came back.”

The contract that international fighters sign with the government in Kyiv makes them Ukrainian soldiers and grants them the same benefits accorded to local troops: medical care, a base salary of about twelve hundred dollars a month (with additional pay for hazardous duty), and legal-combatant status under the Geneva Conventions (though Russia considers them mercenaries ineligible for prisoner-of-war status). The critical difference is that foreigners are free to leave when they want. They can also refuse to carry out specific requests or tasks. Everything they do is voluntary.

To a civilian, this may sound appealing. But any service member knows that such an arrangement not only contradicts the basic premise on which functioning militaries are built; it also imposes an oppressive burden on individual soldiers. On our way to Donetsk, Doc had explained to me, “In the Marines, it didn’t matter what shit you threw at us,” because disobeying orders was never an option. He attributed the Legion’s high attrition rate to the stress of having to constantly choose whether to participate in risky missions: “It’s a cumulative effect. It stacks up in your mind.”

Similarly, whereas Doc’s tours in Iraq and Afghanistan had scheduled end dates, Legion members must decide for themselves when to stop fighting. The fact that Ukrainians like Rambo and Grek lack such agency makes quitting all the more fraught. Doc agreed with President Zelensky’s assertion that the war was about much more than just Ukraine—that no less than the future of democracy might be governed by its outcome. “And this is the problem,” he told me. “Because how am I different from these Ukrainian soldiers, then, if I believe that?”

Five days after the soft-spoken officer at the air shaft warned Herring and Rambo of a looming attack, Russian forces mounted a multi-pronged armored offensive. From the house, we could hear a major spike in artillery, cluster bombs, and tank fire. Ukrainian helicopters shuttled overhead. Rockets dragged contrails across the sky. Turtle received word that the Ukrainians in the trenches we had visited—where I’d met Grandpa and Vitaliy—had destroyed two tanks, using shoulder-fired weapons. A larger Russian contingent, however, had captured a southern neighborhood of Pavlivka.

Turtle gathered the team outside. “It might be a day where nothing happens, it might be a day where everything happens,” he said. Then he turned to Doc. “Are you in this?” he asked.

“Yeah,” Doc said.

Grek, the reconnaissance-company commander, advised the team to report to the battalion headquarters in Vuhledar, the next Ukrainian-held town after Pavlivka. The foreigners left in their two Nissans, while Rambo and his men followed in a Hyundai that a network of friends and relatives had bought for them. The main route was exposed to Russian tanks, so we had to travel off-road. Rockets were clobbering Vuhledar. We parked outside an apartment tower, and the men hustled into the stairwell. Turtle and Rambo went to find the headquarters.

Doc a former marine who served in Iraq and Afghanistan smoking in fatigues photographed by David Guttenfelder.

There was no electricity, heat, or working plumbing in Vuhledar, and the only remaining tenant in the building appeared to be a middle-aged woman in a shabby coat and a tracksuit, named Lena. Alcohol seemed to have enhanced her delight at having guests.

“Where do you want to go?” she asked. “I can tell you the way. I’ve lived here since I was two.” Herring gave her a cigarette, and Lena gestured for him to light it. “I’m a lady,” she said.

An extended salvo shook the building. One shell screamed into a playground across the street, throwing up a splash of flame and dirt. Shrapnel tinked against the concrete walls.

“Well, they found our vehicles,” Herring said.

When Turtle and Rambo reappeared, they informed the team that the battalion commander wanted them to remain in Vuhledar on standby. It was the same story the next day, and the next: driving to Lena’s building and waiting in her stairwell, only to be sent home. By the third night, the team was bitterly demoralized. I found Rambo and Turtle in the kitchen, sharing a bottle of whiskey. “Three days, we just suck fucking Chupa Chups,” Rambo said.

“We’re trying to make something happen,” Turtle replied.

Soldiers in other companies had been sending Rambo videos of dramatic firefights and attacks on Russian tanks. “They kill a lot of guys in this time we sit in fucking Vuhledar,” he lamented.

“We’re stuck,” Turtle agreed. “But we can get out of it.”

The next day, he drove to Vuhledar with only his friend who served as an interpreter. Returning to the house, Turtle summoned Rambo’s men and his. “We have a mission,” he told them.

The 72nd had assessed that six hundred enemy troops and thirty armored vehicles had entered Pavlivka. The village was divided between Russian forces in the southern neighborhoods and Ukrainian forces in the northern ones, though the fronts were fluid and ambiguous. The center of the village could be accessed by a tree line from the east, and the brigade wanted the foreigners to see if it was possible to traverse its length, or how far they could go before encountering Russian positions.

On a whiteboard in the living room, Turtle drew a map. The team would travel by vehicle to a collection of summer cottages, or dachas, across a river from Pavlivka. Once it was dark, Turtle, Doc, T.Q., Rambo, and another Ukrainian would depart from there on foot, pass over a bridge, and enter the tree line. Herring would remain in one of the dachas to provide real-time intelligence from his drone, identifying any Russian soldiers, tanks, or artillery that might attack the team. If all went well, they’d be home before dawn.

Tai’s name did not appear on the whiteboard. When the others visited a firing range to rehearse their movements and practice shooting with night vision and thermal optics, he didn’t participate. “Tai’s out,” Turtle told me. There was no animus in his voice, and indeed the team seemed to be going out of its way to reassure Tai.

I rode back from the range with Doc. During the rehearsal, he’d been the point man, a dangerous and demanding responsibility when navigating hostile, unfamiliar terrain littered with mines. “It’s not what I came here to do, but it’s what needs to be done,” Doc said. When he joined the Legion, he’d assumed that the Ukrainians would use him in an engineering or communications role. It wasn’t just that he had worked at Google. His tours in Iraq and Afghanistan had taken a toll on his body, and in 2021 he had broken both knees and fractured a vertebra during a paramotor accident in the Hudson Valley. “I thought I was too old and too broke to fight,” he said. Nonetheless, he hadn’t protested when the G.U.R. recruited him for the reconnaissance team. Knowing little about such techniques, he’d scoured the Internet for manuals and studied them on his phone. Still, he was not a natural—not like Dominic Abelen, who’d been the point man on every mission until he was killed. “He was so careful,” Doc said. “You want someone who’s obsessive to a fault.” Combat was fast and frenetic, reconnaissance painstaking and slow. You took a few steps, then stopped and listened. You had to diligently suppress a powerful instinct, amplified by adrenaline and nerves, to speed up. “That’s not me,” Doc said.

Two feet descend through a hole in a basement bunker ceiling.

When we’d met in Kyiv, he’d been working on pivoting from frontline operations to safer projects, such as fund-raising. “But, at the end of the day, I’m still a soldier,” he said. In any war, the abstract or ideological reasons that lead someone to take up arms often dissolve in the highly personal crucible of combat, which produces its own logic. A desire for revenge can take hold, or a need for redemption, or an addiction to risk. Doc seemed to be contending with a sense of guilt. “The most shit I’ve ever felt about anything in this war,” he’d told me, was being absent when Abelen and Jones were killed. “When two of your guys die and you’re sitting on a beach in Ibiza . . .” He’d trailed off, grimacing.

The team left the house the following afternoon. A photographer and I rode in the Hyundai with Herring and a Ukrainian soldier called Pan. On the way, Herring stuck his hand in a pocket and brought out a yellow rubber duck. In March, he said, he’d distributed clothing to displaced civilians arriving at the train station in Kyiv. He’d given a jacket to a young boy, who reciprocated with the duck. The boy explained that it had helped him survive the siege of Mariupol. “He said that it would keep me safe,” Herring said, his jokey façade falling away.

We joined the rest of the team in an abandoned dacha riddled with holes. Other soldiers from the 72nd were also staging there, preparing to enter Pavlivka with about a dozen anti-tank weapons. Artillery was landing close; we could hear the clatter of small arms not far off. In a disarrayed living room, Doc tried to lighten the mood, speculating about the calibre of the projectiles outside.

T.Q. reclined on a couch, looking sombre. At twenty-five, he was the team’s youngest member, the only one who neither drank nor smoked, and generally the most serious, with a stereotypical German reserve. After studying chemistry at college for two semesters, he had asked himself, “Do I want to waste four years of my life for a piece of paper that validates an increase of salary?” He’d enlisted in the French Foreign Legion and deployed to Iraq. In Ukraine, T.Q. had preceded Turtle as team leader. Although T.Q. was universally admired for his meticulous pragmatism, after Abelen and Jones were killed everyone had agreed to make a change. Since then, according to Turtle, T.Q. had sometimes chafed at his loss of control. The previous day, he’d posed pointed questions about the plan that Turtle had outlined on the whiteboard. He worried, above all, that the team lacked clear lines of communication with the Ukrainian forces in Pavlivka.

“You all right, man?” Doc asked him in the dacha.

T.Q. shrugged.

The night before, Doc had told me, “If we do our job correctly, they’ll never know we were there.” He’d then qualified the assurance. The trees were almost bare, the roads carpeted with leaves. An Orlan, the Russian fixed-wing drone, would have “perfect observation.” Ultimately, Doc said, it was “a game of chance.”

More and more members of the 72nd were congregating at the dacha, and Herring and Pan, the Ukrainian soldier, decided to station themselves elsewhere. As the photographer and I followed them, along a dirt lane dotted with small homes, all of which had been partially demolished, something whistled toward us—loud and fast. We dove into the mud, then got up and ran. Arriving at a larger, gated property, we entered a foyer, and as Herring shut the door behind us another shell slammed to earth, blasting shrapnel against the walls.

The foyer was full of glass and debris. Floral-patterned drapes hung over a shattered window. A door leading to the next room was barricaded shut by rubble on the other side. I was relieved to see a hole in the floor with a wooden ladder descending to a root cellar. When the photographer and I climbed down, we found that the shelter was too shallow to stand in.

The rest of the team, still at the original dacha, waited for night to fall. Then Turtle radioed that they were heading out. He had substituted himself for Doc as the point man, and had secured a member of the 72nd to guide them around Ukrainian mines.

Herring went into the yard of the gated property, draped a blanket over his head, and launched the drone. Soon, a renewed barrage pounded the neighborhood. The photographer and I hunkered down in the root cellar. After one incoming strike, I could hear Pan, in the foyer, shout, “Herring O.K.?” It seemed insane to me that Herring was still outside. Only after a giant explosion brought chunks of ceiling crashing into the foyer did he and Pan join us under the floor.

“That’s the closest it’s ever come to hitting me,” Herring marvelled. He’d managed to land the drone in the yard, but had sprinted inside before he could retrieve it. He’d also lost his radio. Borrowing Pan’s, Herring said, “Turtle, this is Herring.”

There was a long pause. Then: “This is Doc. Be advised, we’re taking fire.” As soon as the team had crossed the bridge, Ukrainian troops in a dugout on the Pavlivka side of the river had warned them that an Orlan had spotted them. The team had decided to continue the mission but had quickly become pinned down.

“Roger that, Doc,” Herring said. “We’re taking near-direct hits on this house. I had a good visual on you guys. I just landed.”

“Roger. We’re taking what seems like tank fire. Over.”

“Roger that. About the same story here. I got a good scan of that tree line. I saw zero, I repeat zero, signatures along it.”

Doc asked Herring to locate the Russian tank. “It’s coming about ten degrees from the left,” he said.

“I gotta wait for this to subside to run out and grab the drone,” Herring told him.

Another strike near the house made Doc’s response inaudible.

“I gotta get that drone,” Herring said. If he could pinpoint the location of the tank, Rambo could transmit its coördinates to the 72nd Brigade, which could neutralize it with artillery.

It was pitch-black in the cellar. Even when three of us sat with our knees drawn up, the fourth person could fit only by standing next to the ladder. In the claustrophobic space, I could feel Herring debating what to do. He was lighting a cigarette when a loud whooshing noise, like a cascade of water, roared toward us. “Down!” Herring barked, though there was nowhere farther down to go. I bowed my head and pressed my palms into the dirt floor, which quaked as three successive impacts left a ringing in my ears.

“Fucking dildos,” Herring said.

It was unclear whether we, too, were being deliberately targeted. I had recently interviewed an American who was teaching Ukrainians in the south to identify Russian drone pilots by tracing the signal of their controllers. But Herring said that this method worked only on a Chinese brand of drones favored by the Russians; his drone was made by a different company and not susceptible to such tracking.

“I think they’re just hitting the whole area,” he surmised.

The next blast was the biggest yet. Above us, wood and plaster broke and tumbled down; the windows of other houses burst.

“We’ll be all right, boys,” Herring said. He sparked his lighter and held the flame under his face to show us that he was smiling. At first, I was annoyed by what seemed like a juvenile display of bravado. Then I realized that Herring was trying to put the photographer and me at ease. “I feel safe!” he said, as half a dozen more shells detonated outside.

Doc came over the radio. The Russian tank was homing in on them. He said of the rounds, “They’re walking up the tree line. The next one will likely be on us. So please try to find it.”

“We’re getting stuffed up here pretty good right now,” Herring told him. When Doc didn’t answer, Herring said again, “I gotta get that drone.” Another munition rocked the house. Somewhere, a machine gun had begun to fire. I urged Herring not to go outside.

“Yeah, but they need me,” he said. “Like, if I don’t do this . . .” He picked up the radio. “Doc, this is Herring.”

No answer. A few seconds later, thirteen rockets, some landing almost simultaneously, caused more of the house to crumble.

“Fuck!” Herring said.

Finally, Turtle came over the radio. “How much luck have you had with the flying?” he asked. “Are you finding out where the issue is?”

“Every time I try to get up out of this basement, we’re taking rounds pretty much right on top of this house,” Herring told him.

Turtle seemed not to have heard. “We are under pretty heavy shelling,” he said. “Try and find where it’s coming from. I know it’s a hard ask, but if you can it would be good for our counter-battery.”

“Roger that, Turtle. I’m trying.”

“Do your best, mate.”

During a brief lull in the high-pitched whizzing and booming thunderclaps of tank rounds, rockets, and artillery, Herring muttered, as much to himself as to anyone, “All right. I’m gonna get real low, crawl through the house, and make a mad dash for the drone, I guess.” Going up the ladder, he added, “If something happens, don’t come outside. I’ll find my way in.”

The drone was where he’d left it, apparently intact. Herring got it in the air, but before he could spot the tank the camera came loose, rendering it inoperative. Guided only by a digital map on the controller and by the sound of the rotors, he brought the drone back to the yard. When he returned to the house, he discovered that the drone’s camera mount had been damaged in one of the blasts.

“She’s fucked,” he said.

I climbed into the foyer. A fresh layer of debris was strewn across the floor, and when I looked up I saw that all the laths on the ceiling were exposed. On the controller, Herring showed me thermal footage of the team: each man a small black speck in the long gray tree line. They still had a ways to go, and now there was nothing for us to do but wait.

Forty-five minutes later, Doc informed Herring that they were returning to the dacha. It was too soon for them to have completed the mission, and Herring fretted that someone might have stepped on a mine. This wasn’t the case, though: the bombardment had convinced them that the Russians were tracking them, and Turtle had decided to abort.

When we ran back to the Hyundai, we found that its rear window had been blown out. Rambo arrived at the same time as us. It was 10:30 p.m. Headlights would have been like beacons for the Russians, so Herring covered the dashboard with a tarp and Rambo drove through the dark using his night-vision device. The others followed in the pickup. As Rambo turned into a rutted black field, Herring asked if everyone was O.K.

“We’re alive,” Rambo said.

At the house, Doc looked like a different person. His eyes were bright and tense, his face smeared with sweat and grime. Even his speech was unnaturally animated. He emanated a kind of physical energy that, in another context, might have suggested mania or narcotics. “It’s endorphins,” Doc said.

Turtle told me that he’d been “one hundred per cent” certain that they were going to die. I talked to him more about this the next day. Throughout my two weeks with the team, I’d been struck by what seemed to be a fatalistic anticipation of his own death. The “dead” tag that Dominic Abelen had given him was just one example. Turtle regularly made comments such as “When it’s your time, it’s your time,” “I wake up every morning ready to see the big guy in the sky,” and “I’ve had a good life, I can die happy.” When I asked him to relate his mind-set in the tree line, he said, “There was not a thought of regret. I was, like, It’s been a great ride. No tears. It was just acceptance. Like, Wow, here I am.”

He’d once told me that many volunteers who quit the Legion did so because they hadn’t been honest with themselves about their reasons for coming to Ukraine. “Because when you get here your reason will be tested,” Turtle said. “And if it’s something weak, something that’s not real, you’re going to find out.” He was dubious of foreigners who claimed to want to help Ukraine. Turtle wanted to help, too, of course, but that impulse was not enough; it might get you to the front, but it wouldn’t keep you there.

I asked what was keeping him there.

“In the end, it’s just that I love this shit,” he said. “And maybe I can’t escape that—maybe that’s the way it’s always gonna be.”

The photographer and I left for Kyiv the next morning. Tai came with us. So did Doc, who was flying to New York to attend a Veterans Day gala, where he hoped to solicit donations. Herring also caught a ride. He had a girlfriend in Bucha, whom he’d met on a dating app, and he was due for a visit. T.Q. was staying—but not for long. In his logical fashion, he had concluded that he could be more of an asset to the team if he spoke Ukrainian, and, given his linguistic aptitude—he was fluent in German, English, and French—he’d decided to take classes in Kyiv.

We were loading up our bags when Rambo received a call from Grek. A Russian armored unit was pushing on another tree line near the coal mine, and the infantry troops there needed backup. As we left the house, Rambo, Pan, and Turtle were donning their gear. That night, while I was in Kyiv, Turtle texted me a GoPro video: the three of them bounding through a cratered field, emptying their magazines, bullets zinging past them, a shell sending up a shower of dirt. When I called him, he said that they had been forced to pull back from the tree line but that no one had been hurt.

I asked if they would be returning.

“I fucking hope so, mate,” Turtle said.

Three days later, members of a Russian brigade that was leading the Pavlivka offensive published a letter alleging that about three hundred of their troops had been killed, wounded, or captured, and that half their armored vehicles had been destroyed. In an unprecedented public rebuke, the brigade members called the decision to invade Pavlivka “incomprehensible,” denouncing their commanders for treating them like “meat.” Despite the uproar over casualties, Russia plowed ahead with its offensive, and the 72nd Brigade eventually withdrew from the village. The defeat marked the largest loss of territory for Ukraine since the summer. Russian shelling of Vuhledar has subsequently intensified, imperilling it as well. Now that the trees in Donetsk are without leaves, it is unlikely that the Ukrainians will be able to reoccupy any of their surrendered trenches before the spring. Although Ukrainian forces recently liberated Kherson, a major port city on the Black Sea, the trench and artillery warfare being waged in the Donbas shows no sign of relenting. The grinding stalemate in Bakhmut continues to inflict a horrific toll on both sides, with little ground lost or won.

On November 10th, General Mark Milley, the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimated that Russia and Ukraine had each sustained “well over” a hundred thousand casualties since February—a staggering number, if true. The International Legion declines to say how many foreigners have been killed or wounded. After the prisoner exchange in Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainian government announced that it was holding Joshua Jones’s remains as part of a war-crimes investigation. Jones’s father, Jeff, a U.S. Army veteran of the Gulf War and a retired police officer, told me that he had identified his son in a photograph, and that the corpse had been “charred.” He was awaiting the results of an autopsy that would indicate whether Jones had been alive when his body was burned. Jeff said that he had spoken to Joshua on the phone in the weeks before his death, and that “he seemed content over there, like he finally found his place in the world.”

A few days after I spoke with Turtle, Rambo sent me a video of himself with a bandage over his face and his right hand bundled in a splint. The Hyundai had come under fire near the coal mine, sending him careering into a ditch. A couple of weeks later, Herring was riding in a truck through the dachas when a shell landed in the road. When he regained consciousness, the truck was on its side and wrapped around a tree. Herring climbed through a shattered window but lacked the strength to stand. The next time he woke up, a Ukrainian was slapping him in the face and he could hear muffled explosions. He was evacuated to a hospital in Dnipro, where he was told that he had four broken ribs and a punctured lung. His face and torso were covered with lacerations. When he called me from his room, which he was sharing with multiple wounded Ukrainians, he credited his rubber duck with having saved his life. “Either the duck or my helmet,” Herring quipped.

Tai, the Kiwi who quit the Legion, did not have a change of heart this time. His only regret, he told me, was leaving Ukraine without Dominic Abelen’s body, which he had hoped to escort to New Zealand. That was why he’d stuck around as long as he had. But, he said, “I realized that if I stay I’ll probably die as well, waiting for him.”

When New Zealand soldiers are killed overseas, their units welcome home their caskets with a haka—the ceremonial Maori dance. Turtle and Tai plan to lobby for Abelen to receive the same honor. If they succeed, the casket will be brought to his former unit’s parade grounds, in Christchurch, through a wooden gate decorated with traditional carvings, called a waharoa. Abelen’s comrades will stomp their feet, beat their chests, and stick out their tongues. Each battalion in the New Zealand Army has its own haka, with its own words that the soldiers hiss and bellow. The name of the haka that Abelen’s unit will perform translates as “We Are Ready.”

After attending the Veterans Day gala in New York, Doc went back to Kyiv, where he plans to buy an apartment. He is currently raising funds to produce and distribute an innovative overhead-protection system for Ukrainian troops deployed in frontline trenches.

More than any other foreign volunteer I met, Doc seemed to be genuinely motivated by a conviction that the conflict was “a clear case of right and wrong.” I sometimes wondered to what extent his desire to participate in such an unambiguously just war was connected to his previous military career. The cause for which he is fighting in Ukraine is righteous because it consists of one country resisting occupation by another. But Doc’s adversaries in Iraq and Afghanistan viewed their causes similarly—and, in Afghanistan, that galvanizing sentiment may be why the Taliban prevailed. This is a thorny topic for veterans, and Doc was not willing to concede a moral equivalence between the U.S. and Russian invasions. However, the experience of defending a country against an outside aggressor that was superior in numbers and in firepower had given him a new appreciation for his former enemies. “I used to think, What kind of pussy fights with mines?” he said. “And here I am, laying mines.”

I also suspected another appeal in Ukraine for International Legion members. During my lunch with Doc on Andriyivsky Descent, in October, I’d been unexpectedly moved when the old man in the fedora thanked him for his service. I shared Doc’s discomfort with similar gestures Stateside, but something here was different. Although the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan were transformative for those who fought in them, they had no real impact on most Americans and Europeans. Everyone in Ukraine, by contrast, has been affected by the Russian invasion; everyone has sacrificed and suffered. For some foreign veterans, such a country, so thoroughly reshaped and haunted by war, must feel less alien than home. ♦

In a basement bunker in Donetsk Tai a New Zealander who joined the Legion unit rests on a mattress with a sniper rifle...

Published in the print edition of the January 2 & 9, 2023, issue, with the headline “Trapped in the Trenches.”

Russians escaping Putin’s war on Ukraine find a new home – and a moral dilemma

USA Today

Russians escaping Putin’s war on Ukraine find a new home – and a moral dilemma

Kim Hjelmgaard, USA TODAY – December 22, 2022

Tbilisi, the capital city of Georgia, where more Russians have sought a new haven since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Tbilisi, the capital city of Georgia, where more Russians have sought a new haven since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

“If our people are dying because of the Russian state, shouldn’t the Russian people also be ready to stand up (and resist) even if there is a danger to their lives? They are all to blame for what’s happening now.”  

— Valeriya Boyko, 25, displaced Ukrainian from the eastern Donetsk region

KVEDA PONA, Georgia – It’s a magical, rustic kingdom where an enchanted fairy-tale forest opens up to reveal waterfalls and mountain lakes; where a bubbling brook flows softly underneath dappled light as farm animals graze freely around your feet; where the vibe is creative-whimsical-cum-merry; where eco-warriors, artists and coders can learn new skills and debate the merits of democracy and solitude while baking artisanal bread.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-10-1/html/r-sf-flx.html

And where even rank-and-file Russian passport holders can temporarily feel free from the pressure of the government fighting in their name in Ukraine – as well as from all those who say they are not doing enough to stop it.

At least, that’s the sales pitch for Chateau Chapiteau.

“When people come here they feel it’s a place that is out of context, a bubble, it exists on its own, you can get lost,” said Vanya Mitin, the 38-year-old Moscow-born entrepreneur who founded the commune 90 miles northeast of Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, a small but tough former Soviet republic located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia.

Chateau Chapiteau opened three years ago. It caters to seekers, wanderers and political, social and cultural exiles of various stripes. Now, nearly a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this forest close to where Georgia meets the Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan has become another kind of haven, one for Russians who have fled their own country because they don’t agree with the war in Ukraine and don’t want to fight in it.

Working the fields at Chateau Chapiteau.
Working the fields at Chateau Chapiteau.

“It is not that we are ignoring the war,” insisted Mitin, whose serious demeanor belies a dryness and archness of humor in his approach to business that is often wacky. One of his previous ventures in Russia that also had a branch in England was a series of cafes that charged customers only for the amount of time they spent on the premises. Even when Mitin is smiling, there is a little bit of a shrug to it that colors his apparent happiness.

“Most of the people with Russian backgrounds here, they were activists, or still are. They went to protests. There is nobody here, for example, who supported Putin even before the war,” he said.

Since the earliest days of the invasion directed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainians made little secret of the moral weight they placed on the Russian people. If Putin’s war was wrong, then his people had an obligation to rebel, rise up, agitate, protest, despite the Russian promise of crackdown on dissent. And in Russian protests, some did.

But far more have cast their lots another way, by leaving Russia entirely, especially once the threat of civilian mobilization meant ordinary Russians were likely to be drafted into the war if they remained at home.

So they have left by the thousands, especially for neighboring countries where Russians still enjoy visa-free access.

Putin’s sway over the hearts and minds of Russians remains a pivotal question for the future of the war. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alluded to it, during an appearance before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday. “The Russians will stand a chance to be free,” Zelenskyy said, “only when they defeat the Kremlin in their minds.”

Across Georgia today, untold thousands of Russians grapple in their own ways with the questions posed by the war. How much responsibility do they share for the decisions of Putin, for the suffering of Ukrainians? And what, if anything, should they do about it?

Expatriate Russians ask themselves these questions – or avoid asking them – in housewarming parties in Tbilisi, in cafes and bars, art shops and bookstore basements. And even in amid the pools and vines of a forest at the foot of the Caucasus Mountains.

The retreat at Kveda Pona sprawls over about 30 acres.

It sits on farmlands in a scenic plain that faces the barrier range of snow-capped peaks and picturesque villages. This mountain range runs from the Black Sea in the west to the Caspian Sea in the east, putting up a geologic fence line that makes uneasy neighbors of Georgia to the south and the Russian Federation to the north. The border stretches for about 550 miles.

There’s an orchard, a farm, a large studio building, smaller workshops, wooden cabins, a communal kitchen and entertainment room with a cozy fireplace, a bar in the woods, a collapsible ping-pong table and a makeshift swing over a stream made out of an old iron bed-frame. Some other parts of Chateau Chapiteau, such as traditional Georgian houses, are still under construction.

Wandering the grounds one day as autumn gathered last month, in no particular order, was a confusing mixture of employees, volunteers, paying guests, friends, hangers-on, ex-wives, ex-husbands, two small children rolling around in the mud, one teenage Georgian kitchen worker from the nearby village, two recently arrived Germans, a Russian-speaking American from Colorado who said she had just got here from Turkey where she saw scores of exiled Russians “behaving like they were on a beach vacation,” several boisterous dogs, three cats and at least two chickens, one of whom is called “City.” It was exceptionally hard to get a sense of how many people really lived there. At least 20. Perhaps as many as 50.

Around midday, there was a brief commotion as an all-hands buffet-style lunch of buckwheat (vegetarian and vegan options), chopped beet root, soup, bread and various salads was served in a main building on the estate. Halfway through the meal, Mitin abruptly stood up and walked over to an electric piano and started accompanying one of the instrument’s preprogrammed songs. It sounded like an upbeat video game tune. When he tired of that, he briefly left the room and came back with a guitar, which he started quietly fingerpicking and eventually graduated to some light strumming. He said nothing.

Daniil Mulyard, Mitin’s half-brother, leaned in semi-conspiratorially from across the table.

“You know,” he said, “even when the war first started, the protests in Russia were not very big. A couple of thousand people in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other big cities. People were afraid. And actually I think that most of the people who went to those protests have now left Russia.”

Mulyard, 28, is in a pretty good position to know.

At Chateau Chapiteau, he cares for the organic cucumbers and other produce grown on site. But he also works for OVD-Info, a Moscow-based independent human rights group that focuses on political persecution in Russia. OVD-Info tracks arrests of protesters, monitors censorship and helps with legal aid. According to OVD-Info data, about 20,000 protesters have been detained in Russia for various periods of time since Feb. 24, the start of the war.

“In my experience, it’s usually the same circles of people” who go to the protests, Mulyard said. “It’s seldom people from different circles. There’s really nobody left to protest.”

More: Plotting the locations of ‘one of the biggest rocket attacks’ Russia has unleashed on Ukraine

Anti-Russian graffiti scrawled on a wall in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.
Anti-Russian graffiti scrawled on a wall in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.

“They escape to Georgia and the European Union and pretend to be Ukrainians there. … We expect Russians to persuade their own men – their fathers and sons in the military – to leave the territory of Ukraine.”

— Anastasiya Orlova, 28, a Ukrainian who works for a Kyiv-based humanitarian organization

A ‘new language’: What is a Russian’s responsibility?

Every Sunday, a 23-year-old Muscovite with tousled hair, a broad, flat forehead and advanced skills in logical deduction named Arseny Velikanov sits at the head of a plastic garden dining table, in the basement of a bookstore, in a country Russia has fought several wars with, and tries to conjure what he calls a “new language.”

This language is full of contradictions, history, abstract concepts, moral quandaries, emotional pitfalls, anger, tension. It is riddled with guilt, shame, fear, confusion. Its would-be speakers – including himself –  are a little spoiled, Velikanov believes. Cowards, others say.

“I was about a year old when Putin became Russia’s president,” Velikanov said one evening in mid-November in Tbilisi, a chaotic, ancient city that is increasingly filled with Russians wearing denim, patterned shirts, vintage dresses, structured coats and beanie hats.

Tbilsi is a former Silk Road capital, a bohemian place where speakeasy culture unfussily sits alongside vintage flea markets and towering Orthodox churches. It is also a haven for food and wine lovers. Archaeologists have pinpointed the world’s earliest known vintners, circa 6,000 B.C., to Georgia. Wine is the nation’s second-largest export after ferroalloys.

There are no precise totals for how many Russians have left the country since February. But estimates based on media reports and figures released from neighboring countries where Russians enjoy visa-free access, such as Georgia and Kazakhstan, indicate it runs into the hundreds of thousands, perhaps even as high as 700,000.

This exodus is the smaller one in the wider region: The United Nations estimates 7.8 million Ukrainian refugees have been forced to flee their homes and seek safety, protection and humanitarian assistance as Russia’s military has destroyed Ukrainian infrastructure and appeared to deliberately target civilians. Humanitarian organizations have warned a new wave of Ukrainian refugees may be coming this winter as Russian missile attacks deprive millions of access to electricity, heat and water.

Velikanov had just finished one of his weekly talks at the bookstore for about a dozen people, all of them Russian. Upstairs, the bookshelves were filled with Russian-language graphic novels, thrillers and reference titles. In one corner of the store, a few kids played board games as their Russian parents exchanged news, gossip and worry with friends about home. A small bar serving coffee, beer and sandwiches was tended by a tattooed Russian who volunteered that back in Moscow, before the war, he used to work in a sex shop.

“I am always asking myself: Have I done enough? How much am I to blame? This is what we are trying to understand in our discussions. This is the ‘language’ we are trying to construct,” said Velikanov, a philosophy major in college. He fled to Georgia from Russia’s largest city in March to avoid being forced to fight in Ukraine.

It’s a question even experts struggle to answer.

“What is the ethical framework around citizen responsibility in wartime?” said David DeCrosse, a professor of ethics at Santa Clara University. “You may get drafted. But should you go if you don’t believe in the war? Maybe citizens in wartime have no other responsibility other than to do what the state asks them to do? Maybe there is an obligation to be part of the opposition to a profoundly unjust war?”

Yet political dissent in Russia – which had never been a safe pursuit – has been all but obliterated.

Anti-war protests are punishable by up to 15 years in prison. Any Russian who dares speak out publicly against the war in Ukraine faces an uncertain future.

Yevgenia Albats at a court hearing in Moscow in 2018. A longtime critic of President Vladimir Putin, she has since left Russia.
Yevgenia Albats at a court hearing in Moscow in 2018. A longtime critic of President Vladimir Putin, she has since left Russia.

“My lawyers told me that I would be arrested,” Yevgenia Albats, a longtime Putin critic who fled the country in August by crossing into Estonia on foot, said recently in an interview with Puck, a newsletter. “Basically, we now live in a country where there are no longer any rules.”

Still, there are some Russians who believe it is not their responsibility to be held accountable for actions taken by their government, even if their government is murdering civilians.

Dmitry Diachenko, 24, is one of them.

He used to work in a manufacturing plant in St. Petersburg before arriving in Tbilisi in March. Diachenko left Russia because he saw it becoming an international outcast and felt it would be easer to pursue his ambition to work in the technology industry if he were overseas. He’s saving money to travel to Thailand and is leaning toward trying to emigrate to Canada, a country he has never visited but suspects may have a similar climate to Russia’s.

“I want to be clear: I don’t support Putin’s war. But I also don’t feel any particular reason to try to stop it,” he said. “I don’t have any allegiance to anyone or anything apart from myself.”

Diachenko said that since coming to Georgia, his main preoccupation has been learning to play the piano. He showed off some clips of his playing posted on his Instagram account, a social media platform that Russia’s communications regulator has banned for its “extremism.” He is now teaching himself the songs of British music artist Elton John.

Yet others, such as Velikanov, have been reappraising their obligations as Russian citizens.

“In Moscow, people like me, we had a comfortable, normal life. When we heard the propaganda from the government we smiled at it like someone who smiles at a fool,” he said. “OK, maybe we knew that something terrible was happening in Crimea, in Donbas, or in Abkhazia, but we thought ‘Well, that is of course not at all about us.'”

Velikanov’s group had recently been spending time reading and talking about seminal texts written by Karl Jaspers, Hannah Arendt and other notable postwar philosophers and political theorists who examined the personal and shared responsibility of average citizens in the context of the atrocities carried out by Germans in World War II.

“Can I blame Ukrainians for hating us all right now?” Velikanov asked. “Of course not. They have that total right,” he said. “Do I feel moral guilt? Yes. Did I break any laws or do a criminal thing by leaving Russia? No. Do I experience political guilt for letting this happen and not doing more? Yes. But this type of guilt is also not a crime.”

Velikanov paused. He fidgeted in his chair. He was uncertain how to proceed. He has spoken to few Ukrainians about these questions. It’s a delicate topic.

“I guess what I can say is that Ukrainians have a right to not care about anything I say or do and what am I supposed to do in that situation? I guess I can only offer my silence,” he said.

More: War crimes in Ukraine may be unprecedented. So is the country’s push for swift justice

Georgian troops fire rockets at seperatist South Ossetian troops in August 2008.
Georgian troops fire rockets at seperatist South Ossetian troops in August 2008.

“If (Ukraine) loses this war, the next one will be in Georgia. I’m absolutely sure. … Even now Georgia isn’t secure and is not in a safe position.” 

— David Katsarava, 45, a Georgian volunteer fighting in Ukraine 

A complicated friendship for Georgians, Russians

“Russians, some Belarusians, but mostly Russians,” said Igor Kyznetsov.

The 36-year-old Russian proprietor of Freedom Aroma, a Tbilisi bar and cafe, was explaining who on any given day makes up the majority of his customers. His Russian and Belarusian employees alternated between listening in and steaming milk with an espresso machine.

Kyznetsov opened his bar in August, one month before Putin announced a massive troop mobilization after Russia suffered a series of major setbacks on Ukrainian battlefields.

Business has been “very good,” he said.

Some Russians may prefer to soak up sun on Spanish beaches, party in French nightclubs and selfie from Italian piazzas and ski hubs. As the war has dragged on, that has become harder for them as European countries have restricted access to their territories.

In Georgia, Russians can live and work for up to a year without a visa.

This, along with geographical proximity, partly explains why an estimated 300,000 Russians – nearly 10% of Georgia’s 3.7 million population – have decamped to the country in recent years.

The influx since the start of the Ukraine war has simply supplemented a Russian presence that was already easy to discern.

There are dozens of bars, cafes and restaurants in Tbilisi where Russian is the only language that can be heard spoken above the clang of silverware. Nightclubs where the young, fashion-forward ravers overwhelmingly hail from Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Over several visits in mid-November, Russians (and a few Belarusians) exclusively inhabited the bookstore where Velikanov held his weekly talks for Russians on devising a “new language” to talk about Ukraine. The bookstore is sandwiched between two cafes, both Russian-run. The patrons of both cafes overwhelmingly come from one place: Russia.

Georgians complain the influx has aggravated a growing housing shortage, supercharged an increase in rents, jammed up commuter traffic routes and generally led to a wave of Russian money that is helpful for short-terms economic gains and unhelpful as it increases Georgia’s economic dependence on Russia.

Some Georgians, such as Nicholas Shevardnadze, 30, a bar owner, don’t trust them.

“All these Russians are walking around Tbilsi talking about how they were so stressed in Russia, how they were stuck, that they are ‘refugees.’ For me, their emotions are fake. I understand they are scared. But c’mon man, it’s your country!” he said of their decision to flee Russia rather than find ways, from inside, to undermine its authoritarian regime.

Shevardnadze’s bar – House of Camora – is located at Fabrika, a Tbilisi cultural center that is a symbol of the shiny, new Georgia. Fabrika is an old Soviet sewing factory that has been given an industrial-design makeover. It has co-working spaces, a vinyl record shop, yoga studios, resident graffiti artists and multiple paces to grab a fancy burger or ramen noodles.

“The ship is going down and all the rats are running away,” he said of the Russian exodus.

Shevardnadze’s views reflect an animosity that runs deeper than just the current wave of Russians, in a country still struggling to untangle itself from the shadow of its former Soviet master.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, both Russia and Georgia were newly independent nations. But in the years that followed, Russia-backed separatists in Georgia sought to declare independence for two regions, which led to a war in 2008.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Tskhinvali, in the Georgian breakaway province of South Ossetia, on Aug. 16, 2008.
A woman walks past a destroyed building in Tskhinvali, in the Georgian breakaway province of South Ossetia, on Aug. 16, 2008.

The war ended in days, with Russian troops occupying the regions. Today, Abkhazia and South Ossetia (or the Tskhinvali region, as Georgians prefer to call it) remain under Russian control.

The conflict essentially meant Russia had invaded the bordering portions of an independent country.

It announced Moscow’s determination, Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland has noted, “to force a country (it) regarded as within Russia’s sphere of influence to heel.”

Many international affairs specialists in the West such as Fried regard Russia’s 2008 actions in Georgia as a kind of prelude to Ukraine. In 2014, Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region on the Black Sea and backed separatists in Donbas, a vast eastern industrial heartlands area dotted with factories and coal plants.

In Georgia, as in Ukraine, while Russia seized its bordering regions, the rest of the country took steps to unite with the West.

It applied to be a member of the European Union economic bloc in March. Like Ukraine, it has aspirations to join NATO, the military alliance that backs Western allies against Russian aggression. (NATO’s expansion to include former Soviet republics such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as former Soviet satellite states in Central and Eastern Europe such as Poland, Hungary and Romania, is sometimes cited as one of the reasons Putin decided this year to extend the war he started in Ukraine in 2014 to an all-out invasion.)

Many Georgians worry Russia could eventually try to take more territory, as it did in Ukraine.

Yet when it comes to Russia today, Georgia remains far from stand-offish.

Paata Zakareishvili, a former Georgian government minister, now an academic. He is concerned about Russia's influence in Georgia.
Paata Zakareishvili, a former Georgian government minister, now an academic. He is concerned about Russia’s influence in Georgia.

Paata Zakareishvili, a former Georgian government minister for reconciliation and civic equality from 2012-2016 who now teaches political science at Grigol Robakidze University, in Tbilisi, said that for all of Georgia’s overtures to the West, the country’s current government led by President Salome Zourabichvili and Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili’s ruling Georgian Dream party has maintained good relations with Russia.

Georgia has kept its borders entirely open to Russian nationals.

And over the last 10 months, its economy has become more, not less, tethered to Russia’s. The country has increased its imports of Russian oil and energy products. The Georgia branch of Transparency International, a Berlin-based organization that measures global corruption, has raised concern that many of the 17,000 Russian companies registered in Georgia since the start of the war – a tenfold increase compared to year-earlier totals – could be helping Moscow evade the sanctions imposed on it by the U.S. and European countries.

Georgia has facilitated Kremlin-friendly information campaigns not so much by talking up Russia, but by talking down the “lewd” West, said Zakareishvili. “Their main slogan can be summed up: ‘Yes, Russia is bad, but what’s good about the West? How did it ever help us?'”

Rati Khazalia, a business owner in Tblisi, says he remembers Russians bombing his village when he was a child.
Rati Khazalia, a business owner in Tblisi, says he remembers Russians bombing his village when he was a child.

Despite the presence of Ukrainian flags and anti-Russian graffiti across Tbilisi and other cities, many of Georgia’s leading politicians have adopted a carefully calibrated ambivalence toward Putin. No Georgian soldiers or weapons have been sent to Ukraine by the government. (Thousands of Georgian volunteers have been fighting in Ukraine. They make up one of the highest numbers in the international legions.) At least one former spy for Russia’s security services has come forward to claim that he was sent to Georgia to keep tabs on the expanding number of Russian emigres.

“Our government right now doesn’t have policies about anything,” said Rati Khazalia, 27, a Georgian business owner who founded and runs “Jpg,” an artsy print shop, located across the courtyard from Shevardnadze’s “Camaro” bar at Fabrika. “We don’t know in which direction the country is going. Is it to the West? Or is to the East?”

Khazalia said he has sympathy for some Russians in Georgia, though he worries about the impact on the cost of living. He fears a cohort that has shown itself resistant to learning the local language and chosen to socialize almost exclusively among its own kind will not, ultimately, be good for community relations. It also bothers him that the Russians he meets often view themselves as distinct from the regime they are fleeing. They appear to have little regard, he said, for how Georgians might feel threatened by a group of people who many like him have long seen as “imperialists,” and with whom they share a fraught history.

“Most of the Russians I encounter are against everything that is happening in Ukraine. I can see that,” he said. “They feel some responsibility for things that are taking place. I see they want it to change. But I also see them trying to separate themselves from the war because they think of themselves as liberals, more into art and music.”

Khazalia said he still vividly recalls the moment in 2008 when Russian jets bombed his village, destroying homes and causing a massive fire in the nearby woodlands.

Today, Russia’s tanks can be in Tbilisi in less than an hour.

More: What is NATO? History, facts, members and why it was created

The forest at Chateau Chapiteau, in Kveda Pona, Georgia.
The forest at Chateau Chapiteau, in Kveda Pona, Georgia.

“At first I thought, ‘Well, I don’t know what it’s like to live in a dictatorship. But now I have lost any hope of trying to understand what Russians are afraid of. … Let them try to understand us first.” 

—  Liliya, 27, a Ukrainian who works for an international development organization in Lviv, in western Ukraine

Rejected in Russia; rejected in Georgia

Sergeyand Polinadon’t think of themselves as cowards.

They do think they are being squeezed from all sides.

The pair, who are in a romantic relationship, said they went to protest after protest in Moscow. They were on the streets after the war first broke out.

Over a dinner they prepared in their temporary rental apartment on the edge of Tbilisi, they described a scene then, and in previous protests they participated in, in which endless columns of riot police in full military tactical gear descended on them like a “closing vice.”

Nowhere to run. Nowhere to hide. Placards confiscated. Shouted phrases drowned out.

Lebedev fled to Georgia in May. Butko followed in September.

They have good jobs in digital marketing that allow them to work remotely. They are disgusted by the war and feel deep embarrassment over what they perceive as their inability to do anything practical to help stop it. Yet they don’t feel that they should have to stay in a country where openly communicating their beliefs leads to prison or beatings, likely both.

“I don’t know what Ukrainians want from us,” said Butko, 23. “If their expectation is that unless the prisons in Russia are full of protesters then we are not doing enough, I don’t think that’s fair. But I understand their anger. And I understand the only way for them to maybe survive this anger is to direct it at the thing – Russians – that has caused it.”

For Lebedev, 24, there was another reason to flee.

He previously served in Russia’s military as a reservist. He said he knew Russia’s military “culture” – the poor training, inconsistent discipline, the blatant disregard for civilians, the effective inducements to loot because of low pay and terrible conditions. All of this has been shockingly evident in Ukraine as war crimes allegations mount.

Lebedev wanted no part of it.

But leaving has also been hard.

There are minor indignities to suffer, from pointed remarks from strangers aimed at Russians in the supermarket or on graffiti scrawled on walls in Tbilisi.

And there are indignities left behind. His uncle, a military man, calls him a coward for leaving Russia. Lebedev’s father also thinks this of his son, but is more guarded in how he phrases it. Only his mother supports his decision.

“My mother has told me not to talk to my father,” he said, a comment that drew a supportive glance and touch of the arm from Butko. She said they talk constantly about what they should do, where they should go, what kind of reception, as Russians, they might expect.

Still, while there are no easy answers, there are some moral expectations, according to

Jeff McMahan, an American philosopher who teaches at Oxford University and has spent years thinking about the responsibilities of citizens in times of war.

He said every Russian, to a greater or lesser extent, has some duty to oppose an unjust war like the one in Ukraine, which was unprovoked. He said Russian civilians who are important to the functioning of the state, who are involved in the major social, economic and political institutions of the country, have the greatest responsibility to make clear their opposition to the war because they have more influence over Putin and other people in the Kremlin.

But he said that Russians like Lebedev and Butko are also “morally liable to suffer certain harms that might be imposed on them in external efforts to bring the war to an end.”

These “harms” could be in the form of sanctions intended to produce discontent in society, as a means of putting pressure on Putin, that ultimately impact their living standards, ability to work, travel freely and leave them feeling ostracized – from Ukrainians or anyone else.

“These sanctions don’t hurt Russian civilians in anything like the ways in which Russia is harming and hurting civilians in Ukraine,” said McMahan. “These are proportionate harms. These people are not entirely innocent because they have some responsibility to try to prevent their government from doing what their government is doing.”

Yet when Albats, the Putin critic who fled Russia by crossing into Estonia this past summer, looks around at her compatriots she sees little reason to be optimistic.

Albats is 64 and now based in the U.S.

In her interview with Puck, she described Russia’s younger generations as “completely spoiled.” She said they lacked “experience of the Soviet struggle” and that after the last major pro-democracy protests in Russia in 2011-2012, the biggest of the Putin era, they had been placated, Muscovites especially, “with the best restaurants and bike lanes and sidewalks and new theaters and overhauled, modernized museums and libraries, and here’s work and you can do whatever you want. You shouldn’t criticize Putin, of course, but anything else, go for it.” Albats said in email that there are now virtually no avenues for Russians to pursue meaningful dissent inside the country, and any Russians who protest once they leave, and there haven’t been many, do so only for “self-satisfaction.”

“People in Iran are braving bullets to protest for women’s rights. People in China are on the streets calling for freedom. The only recent protests I have seen in Russia is by people who complain they haven’t been given sufficiently good weapons and equipment to go kill Ukrainians,” Yaroslav Trofimov, a Ukrainian-born journalist for The Wall Street Journal, tweeted recently, summing up the feelings of many Ukrainians toward Russians.

A recent leaked poll conducted by the Kremlin found that Russia support for the war that has devastated the nation’s economy and military is falling, according to the Latvia-based investigations outlet Meduza, which obtained the information.

But it still remains high.

Still, David Cortright, a retired peace studies professor and former soldier who ended up protesting the Vietnam War while on active duty, said that the idea that Russians should be doing more than they are to overturn Putin’s government is a “false expectation.”

He said that “even if Russians are not going to go out and protest – if Russians are leaving the country and refusing to fight – it means morale in the country is low. It means public opinion in Russia is shifting. It means (Ukraine is) winning.”

Chateau Chapiteau founder Vanya Mitin stands amid an art installation on the grounds of the commune a few hours northeast of Tbilisi, Georgia.
Chateau Chapiteau founder Vanya Mitin stands amid an art installation on the grounds of the commune a few hours northeast of Tbilisi, Georgia.

Back in the sun-dappled forest of Chateau Chapiteau, where an amorphous group of Russian expats hopes to build a sort of agrarian utopia, entrepreneur Mitin gave a tour of an art installation that he had set up in the woods.

It’s called the “forest of hands.” It features 24 sculpted, raised hands – the number marking the war’s start on the 24th day of February – placed in a circle in the ground. The title is a reference to a famous saying of educators in Soviet times.

“It is the dream of a totalitarian teacher to see people obey, blindly obey,” Mitin said, adding that Soviet teachers would often use the phrase “I see a forest of hands” to cajole students into raising their hands to questions they may not be able to answer. They sought full participation even if it was without understanding. He said the installation was intended to show Russians are tacitly approving atrocities committed by the authorities.

“I can’t imagine how to be useful in Russia if you’re not ready to sacrifice your life or go to prison,” he said. Mitin pointed out that Chateau Chapiteau has raised money for displaced Ukrainians and funded a Ukrainian family’s ongoing stay at the retreat. He also noted that nationals of many different countries come to the commune, not just Russians.

Mitin said he had recently acquired Israeli citizenship and wants to sever all ties to the country where he was born and raised. “Maybe sometimes to kill an evil you should just leave it alone. Let it destroy itself from within. … Maybe it’s better to leave this hooligan (Putin) alone … maybe everyone should just leave (Russia).”

Mulyard, his half-brother, though, has the opposite idea.

He has been out of Russia since March. Over the objections of Mitin, his girlfriend and many of the other Russians ensconced at Chateau Chapiteau, Mulyard said he’s considering returning home so he can be more directly useful.

“I don’t really agree with those people, with a lot of the Russians who have left, that just by being there you will immediately go to prison and die,” he said. “That doesn’t really happen unless you are involved in activism. Quite often my impression is Russians don’t feel guilty about this war. They leave because they have a strong feeling of self-preservation and maybe they are panicking about the situation more than they should.”

Contributing: Masho Lomashvili, Iryna Dobrohorska

Matt Gaetz Tells Tucker Carlson It’s ‘North Korea-Style’ to Stand for Zelensky

Daily Beast

Matt Gaetz Tells Tucker Carlson It’s ‘North Korea-Style’ to Stand for Zelensky

William Vaillancourt – December 22, 2022

Fox News
Fox News

Florida Republican congressman Matt Gaetz insisted Thursday that had he joined the vast majority of his colleagues in standing and applauding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky before his speech to lawmakers Wednesday, it would have been a “North Korea-style” act.

Appearing on Tucker Carlson’s show, the right-wing representative was introduced as “one of the very few” lawmakers “who didn’t follow the rules and stand up and applaud like a seal as a foreign leader in a sweatshirt lectured our country.” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) also remained seated beside Gaetz, while Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) skipped the event altogether.

Carslon, who has made a habit of harping on the war-time leader’s attire, further set the tone for the interview by saying what Gaetz did has been viewed as a “thought-crime” — as if there haven’t been enough references to the novel 1984 lately.

“How much do you love Putin that you didn’t applaud last night,” asked the Fox News host facetiously. (Carlson himself once said that he was rooting for Russia amid its tensions with Ukraine — a comment that he later claimed was a joke.)

“I feel no compunction to go out and applaud some foreign leader from a historically corrupt country who is begging for more than the hundred billion dollars that the Congress has already set to send them,” Gaetz said. Earlier on Thursday, the Senate approved an omnibus spending bill which included nearly $50 billion in aid to the country.

“Now, when President Trump said that America would never be a socialist country, you saw Democrats sit on their hands,” Gaetz continued, referencing a line in the former president’s 2019 State of the Union address. “But when we say you shouldn’t send endless amounts of money to this place where we’re exacerbating death and conflict, it’s like we’re traitors to the movement because Lauren Boebert and I didn’t stand up in some sort of North Korea-style performance.”

Carlson picked up where Gaetz’s ‘America-first’ spiel left off, criticizing Zelenky’s requests for aid.

“This guy has nothing to do with our country. Get what he can. I get it. I’m not even mad at him,” Carlson said. “I’m mad at the people who instinctively bow before some uppity foreigner demanding money that we don’t have.”

Gaetz closed the interview with what he must have thought was a zinger, in light of Zelensky having unfurled a Ukrainian flag signed by front-line soldiers. “At least we found a flag the Democrats were willing to stand for on the floor of the United States Congress,” Gaetz said, making Carlson crack up.

Russia is destroying Ukraine’s economy, raising costs for U.S. and allies

The Washington Post

Russia is destroying Ukraine’s economy, raising costs for U.S. and allies

Jeff Stein and David L. Stern, The Washington Post – December 15, 2022

KYIV, Ukraine – Two months of relentless missile and drone attacks by Russia have decimated Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and blown a hole in projections for the country’s war-ravaged economy.

Before those strikes, Kyiv expected to need at least $55 billion in foreign assistance next year to meet basic expenses – more than the country’s entire annual prewar spending.

Now, with its energy systems severely battered, and more Russian attacks likely, some officials believe Ukraine could end up needing another $2 billion a month, and political leaders have begun trying to brace Western supporters for such worst-case scenarios.

“What do you do when you can’t heat your house, you can’t run your shops, factories or plants, and your economy is not working?” said Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky. “We are going to be requiring more financial assistance, and Putin is doing this to destroy unity among allies.”

At a closed-door meeting last week at the National Bank of Ukraine, which now has a military checkpoint just outside its headquarters, central bank officials pondered what might happen if Russia’s attacks intensify. People could flee Ukraine in droves, taking their money with them, potentially crashing the national currency as they seek to exchange their Ukrainian hryvnia for euros or dollars.

The Ukrainian government could be left without international reserves to pay for critical imports and unable to meet its foreign debt obligations – a doomsday scenario known as a balance-of-payments crisis.

One dire scenario predicted that Ukraine’s economy could contract by another 5 percent next year, on top of the 33 percent contraction this year, according to a person familiar with the bankers’ report who spoke on the condition of anonymity because it was not public.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, at an international donor conference in Paris on Tuesday, said the contraction next year could reach 9 percent depending on the severity of continued Russian attacks.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin persists with his 10-month-old war, Ukraine’s survival hinges as much on outside economic aid as on donated weapons, and Putin now seems intent on making such help so costly that Kyiv’s Western backers give up.

Before the infrastructure attacks began on Oct. 10, Ukrainian officials were optimistic that Western financial aid would allow them to close most, if not all, of their enormous budget gap in 2023.

The European Union and United States collectively have pledged to send more than $30 billion to Ukraine next year, though not all of that money is formally approved. On Thursday, the E.U.’s 27 heads of state and government, meeting in Brussels, agreed to provide 18 billion euros, or just over $19 billion, in loans to Ukraine next year.

Some aid promised for this year was slow to materialize, forcing Kyiv to print money and devalue its currency to ensure its economy remained competitive, contributing to a spike in inflation of more than 20 percent.

But this help, even if it does come through, is intended only to keep the country afloat day-to-day. It doesn’t remotely begin to address the hundreds of billions in damage wrought by the war.

Russia’s invasion has destroyed hospitals, ports, fields, bridges and other parts of the country’s critical infrastructure. Agricultural exports have been decimated, despite an international accord to maintain some grain shipments. Huge swaths of Ukrainian industry are now in occupied territory. As much as one-third of the country’s forests have been destroyed.

In September, United Nations officials estimated that nearly 18 million Ukrainians needed humanitarian aid. With the country on the brink of a financial cliff, some advisers to Zelensky in recent weeks weighed asking Western governments to finance direct cash payments to Ukrainian citizens, according to two people familiar with the internal talks.

Now, with energy systems decimated, Kyiv and its partners face a head-splitting challenge. Key pillars of the economy – coal mining, industrial manufacturing, information technology – cannot function without electricity or internet service. The World Bank has warned that poverty could explode tenfold. Unemployment, already close to 30 percent, is likely to climb further.

“In case of full blackouts for longer periods, we will definitely need to get more resources to avoid humanitarian catastrophe,” Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Ukraine’s deputy central bank governor, who attended last week’s meeting, said in an interview.

The dire assessments reflect something Ukrainian officials and their Western supporters do not like to admit aloud: The Kremlin has made Ukraine’s economy a pivotal theater of the war – one in which Moscow is arguably having far more success than on the front lines, where its troops have struggled.

“How does an economy function at all – while supporting the war effort – with this level of damage to civilian infrastructure? I don’t think we’ve ever seen this,” said Simon Johnson, an economist at MIT who is in communication with Ukrainian officials. “I can’t think of any economy that’s ever tried to do this.”

Blackouts take up roughly half the workday. Valentyn Nyzkovolosov, co-owner of the Salt and Pepper catering service in Kyiv, and his partner, Andrii Boyarskyy, have their staff arrive at 5 a.m. – as early as possible under the wartime curfew in Kyiv. When the power goes out after sunset – before 4 p.m. these days – employees work with flashlights.

When Washington Post journalists arrived at Nyzkovolosov’s business recently, there was no electricity. Moments later, air raid sirens sounded and Salt and Pepper’s staff descended into a cramped cellar that serves as a bomb shelter. “This is the best example of the conditions that we work under,” Nyzkovolosov said. During a previous alert, a few weeks earlier, explosions were heard nearby, employees said.

Ukrainians are adamant that Russia’s missile attacks will not break their fighting spirit. But businesses and workers are struggling to adapt. For many, it is impossible to function without electricity.

Mining and manufacturing – which make up roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s economy – are among the hardest-hit sectors. Two of the country’s biggest steel plants, located in the industrial southeast, shut down last month because of blackouts. Dozens of coal miners had to be rescued after a power failure trapped them underground.

“For large industrial and metallurgical plants, these blackouts are very dangerous,” said Dennis Sakva, an energy analyst at Dragon Capital, a Ukrainian investment firm, which recently downgraded its economic forecast for 2023 to a 6 percent contraction in economic output from 5 percent growth.

“If you’re in the middle of a technical complicated process with high temperatures and have a power outage, it can cause all sorts of problems,” Sakya said.

Ongoing internet outages could also wreak financial havoc. Information technology, for example, has emerged as a pillar of Ukraine’s economy, and was the only sector to have grown over the past year, said Mykhailo Fedorov, a vice prime minister who oversees digital transformation.

Yet due mainly to the recent attacks, the internet connectivity rate is down to 35 percent of its prewar level. Ukrainians are importing Starlink terminals for internet via satellite, but there are unlikely to be enough to manage widespread outages. And the internet disruptions impair not just the IT sector but basic public and private financial services, such as pension payments, mobile banking, tax collection and digital sales.

The biggest economic threat, however, is not a loss of connectivity but a loss of people. A lack of heat and water service during winter could set off a mass population exodus. Kyiv has already warned residents to be prepared to leave if its heat goes offline amid freezing temperatures. In that scenario, the city would have no choice but to cut off water to prevent pipes from freezing and rupturing.

In the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson, authorities are urging citizens to evacuate, warning of a lack of critical services during winter. European countries are already sheltering millions of war refugees, and experts warn of a new crisis.

“You need to have a place to evacuate so many people,” Sakva, the Dragon analyst, said. “When the number of affected residents is in millions or the tens of millions, that’s a very hard question. I’m not sure anyone has a clear answer to it.”

Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko was already in the midst of asking Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen for billions in aid when he first alerted her to Russia’s bombing of infrastructure.

At the time, on Oct. 16, it appeared that the United States and Europe could help stave off an economic disaster in Ukraine. The Biden administration was helping to close a significant portion of Ukraine’s budget deficit. The E.U., while behind on pledges, was also providing aid.

Dominated by oligarchs and perennially in need of bailouts, Ukraine was a financial mess long before Russia’s invasion. Full-blown war sent its economy into a tailspin.

After Ukraine halted Russia’s assault on Kyiv last spring, the immediate emergency stabilized. By summer, Western officials had even started talking about forcing Russia to pay for postwar reconstruction, which the World Bank estimated would cost $350 billion. Ukrainian officials talked up a modern-day “Marshall Plan” that would also forge closer economic ties to the West.

When he met Yellen in October, Marchenko warned that the energy attacks could unravel previous calculations, but he had no idea how bad things would get. “Even at that week, we couldn’t estimate how far Russia could reach to destroy our energy infrastructure,” Marchenko recalled in an interview at the Finance Ministry on Monday, shortly after he and his team took cover in a parking lot amid another air raid siren.

The Zelensky and Biden administrations were already on edge about the rhetoric from U.S. Republicans who won a slim majority in the House, including the potential future speaker, Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who warned that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine.

As the humanitarian needs grow, Ukrainian economic officials have sounded out Western officials about the potential for an income support program to provide roughly $50 per person per month – at a cost of $12 billion over six months, one person familiar with the matter said.

They found a cool reception, however, from Western officials who were already wary of appearing to support too much aid for Ukraine, the person said.

After the energy attacks, some experts argue the West may be doing too little, not too much.

“We’re already giving them just enough to avoid hyperinflation,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “But there’s clearly a risk of a more serious economic contraction, and the only way to stop that will be to provide more financial assistance.” But, Kierkegaard added, “I don’t know if the will is there.”

Russia launches another major missile attack on Ukraine

Associated Press

Russia launches another major missile attack on Ukraine

Hanna Arhirova, Vasilisa Stepanenko, Jamey Keaten – December 16, 2022

A woman cries in front of the building which was destroyed by a Russian attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Russian forces launched at least 60 missiles across Ukraine on Friday, officials said, reporting explosions in at least four cities, including Kyiv. At least two people were killed by a strike on a residential building in central Ukraine, where a hunt was on for survivors. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
A woman cries in front of the building which was destroyed by a Russian attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Russian forces launched at least 60 missiles across Ukraine on Friday, officials said, reporting explosions in at least four cities, including Kyiv. At least two people were killed by a strike on a residential building in central Ukraine, where a hunt was on for survivors. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka
Debris of an apartment building damaged in a Russian rocket attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Russian forces launched at least 60 missile strikes across Ukraine on Friday, officials said, reporting explosions in at least four cities. At least two people were killed when a residential building was hit in central Ukraine, while electricity and water services were interrupted in the two largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv. (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP Photo)
Debris of an apartment building damaged in a Russian rocket attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Russian forces launched at least 60 missile strikes across Ukraine on Friday, officials said, reporting explosions in at least four cities. At least two people were killed when a residential building was hit in central Ukraine, while electricity and water services were interrupted in the two largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv. (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP Photo)
People rest in the subway station, being used as a bomb shelter during a rocket attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Ukrainian authorities reported explosions in at least three cities Friday, saying Russia has launched a major missile attack on energy facilities and infrastructure. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported explosions in at least four districts, urging residents to go to shelters. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
People rest in the subway station, being used as a bomb shelter during a rocket attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Ukrainian authorities reported explosions in at least three cities Friday, saying Russia has launched a major missile attack on energy facilities and infrastructure. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported explosions in at least four districts, urging residents to go to shelters. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters work to extinguish a fire at the building which was destroyed by a Russian attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Russian forces launched at least 60 missiles across Ukraine on Friday, officials said, reporting explosions in at least four cities, including Kyiv. At least two people were killed by a strike on a residential building in central Ukraine, where a hunt was on for survivors. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters work to extinguish a fire at the building which was destroyed by a Russian attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Russian forces launched at least 60 missiles across Ukraine on Friday, officials said, reporting explosions in at least four cities, including Kyiv. At least two people were killed by a strike on a residential building in central Ukraine, where a hunt was on for survivors. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters work at the building which was destroyed by a Russian attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Russian forces launched at least 60 missiles across Ukraine on Friday, officials said, reporting explosions in at least four cities, including Kyiv. At least two people were killed by a strike on a residential building in central Ukraine, where a hunt was on for survivors. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters work at the building which was destroyed by a Russian attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. Russian forces launched at least 60 missiles across Ukraine on Friday, officials said, reporting explosions in at least four cities, including Kyiv. At least two people were killed by a strike on a residential building in central Ukraine, where a hunt was on for survivors. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s capital came under one of the biggest attacks of the war on Friday as Russia’s invading forces fired dozens of missiles across the country, triggering widespread power outages, Ukrainian officials said.

Gunfire from air defense systems and thudding explosions combined with the wail of air-raid sirens as the barrage targeted critical infrastructure in cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih and Zaporhizhzhia. The head of the Ukrainian armed forces said they intercepted 60 of 76 missiles launched.

“My beautiful sunshine. What am I going to do without you?” wailed Svytlana Andreychuk in the arms of Red Cross staffers. Her sister Olha was one of three people killed when a missile slammed into a four-story apartment building in Kryvyi Rih.

“She was so cheerful in life. She was a beauty. She helped everybody. She gave advice to everybody. How I love you so,” said Andreychuk.

In Kyiv, city council member Ksenia Semenova said 60% of residents were without power Friday evening, and 70% without water. The subway system was out of service and unlikely to be back in operation Saturday, she said.

Russian strikes on electricity and water systems have occurred intermittently since mid-October, increasing the suffering of the population as winter approaches. But the Ukrainian military has reported increasing success in shooting down incoming rockets and explosive drones.

Friday’s attacks took place after the United States this week agreed to give a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine to boost the country’s defense. Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned Thursday that the sophisticated system and any crews accompanying it would be a legitimate target for the Russian military.

The U.S. also pledged last month to send $53 million in energy-related equipment to help Ukraine withstand the attacks on its infrastructure. John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said Friday that the first tranche of that aid had arrived in the country.

More than half the Russian missiles fired Friday targeted Ukraine’s capital. The city administration said Kyiv withstood “one of the biggest rocket attacks” it has faced since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly 10 months ago. Ukrainian air defense shot down 37 of about 40 missiles that entered the city’s airspace, and one person was injured, it said.

Ukraine’s air force said Russian forces fired cruise missiles from the Admiral Makarov frigate in the Black Sea, while Kh-22 cruise missiles were fired from long-range Tu-22M3 bombers over the Sea of Azov, and tactical aircraft-fired guided missiles.

In Kryvyi Rih, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s hometown in central Ukraine, the apartment building hit by a missile had a gaping hole in its upper floors. Along with the three people killed, at least 13 were taken to the hospital, said Igor Karelin, deputy head of the city’s emergency services.

Rescue teams with sniffer dogs searched through the debris for a missing mother and her 18-month-old child.

Also at Kryvyi Rih, nearly 600 miners were stuck underground because of the missile strikes, but were later rescued, Mayor Oleksandr Vilkul said on state TV.

He said “several energy infrastructure facilities were completely destroyed.”

State-owned grid operator Ukrenergo wrote on Facebook that Friday’s attack was “the ninth wave of missile strikes on energy facilities,” and because of the repeated damage, “the restoration of power supply may take longer than before.”

Analysts have said Russian strikes targeting energy infrastructure are part of an attempt to freeze Ukrainians into submission after battlefield losses by Russian forces. Experts say that has only strengthened the resolve of Ukrainians to resist Russia’s invasion, while Moscow tries to buy time for a possible offensive in coming months after the current battlefield stalemate.

Kharkiv regional governor Oleh Syniehubov reported three strikes Friday on critical infrastructure in that city, Ukraine’s second-largest. By evening, about 55% of the city had its electricity restored.

The southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia and its surrounding region were hit by 21 rockets, city council secretary Anatoly Kurtev said. There were no initial reports of injuries.

And Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported explosions in at least four districts there. Many residents were sheltering deep underground in subway tunnels.

At the site of one attempted strike in Kyiv, military commanders told The Associated Press that the city’s territorial defense mobile group had shot down a cruise missile with a machine gun. It wasn’t immediately clear whether other Ukrainian fire may have contributed to downing the rocket.

“Almost impossible to hit a missile with a machine gun, but it was done,” said a commander who asked to be identified only by the call sign “Hera” for security reasons.

Ukrzaliznytsia, the national railway operator, said power was out in a number of stations in the eastern and central Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. But trains continued to run after electric power was switched to backup, steam-engine power.

In neighboring Moldova, the state-owned energy company reported disruptions to its electricity network and warned of a “high risk” of power outages. Moldova — whose Soviet-era systems remain interconnected with Ukraine’s — has already suffered two massive blackouts in recent months as Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy grid.

The previous such round of massive Russian air strikes across Ukraine took place on Dec. 5.

“Grateful for the work of Ukraine’s air defense amid more escalatory Russian attacks this morning on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and around the country,” the U.S. ambassador in Kyiv, Bridget Brink, wrote on Twitter.

Kyiv warns of long cuts after Russian missiles batter grid

AFP

Kyiv warns of long cuts after Russian missiles batter grid

Dmytro Gorshkov – December 16, 2022

A barrage of deadly Russian strikes battered Ukraine’s grid on Friday, worsening dire conditions for Ukrainians across the winter-worn country by knocking out water and electricity services in several regions.

The national energy provider warned Ukrainians already braving near freezing temperatures that it could take longer to restore electricity after dozens of Russian missiles targeted key infrastructure sites in the north, south and centre of the country.

“Priority will be given to critical infrastructure: hospitals, water supply facilities, heat supply facilities, sewage treatment plants,” Ukrenergo said in a statement Friday.

Residents of the capital wrapped in winter coats crammed into underground metro stations after air raid sirens rang out early Friday: the ninth wave of Russian aerial bombardments since October.

“I woke up, I saw a rocket in the sky,” Kyiv resident 25-year-old Lada Korovai said. “I saw it and understood that I have to go to the tube.”

“We live in this situation. It’s a war, it’s real war,” she told AFP.

The onslaught is the latest brought by Russian forces to target what Moscow says are military-linked facilities. The air assaults follow a series of embarrassing battlefield defeats for Russia.

– ‘Biggest’ missile attack of invasion –

Ukraine’s second largest city Kharkiv, near the border with Russia, was left without electricity, its mayor said. Oleg Synegubov, head of Kharkiv’s regional adminstration, said later they planned to have power restored by midnight.

The central cities of Poltava and Kremenchuk were also without power and regional officials in Kryvyi Rig, where Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky was born, said the airstrikes had hit a residential building.

“A 64-year-old woman and a young couple died. Their little son still remains under the rubble of the house,” the region’s governor Valentyn Reznichenko said, adding that 13 more were injured.

Oleksandr Starukh, head of the frontline Zaporizhzhia region, which houses Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, said more than a dozen Russian missiles had targeted territory under Ukrainian control.

Kyiv meanwhile “withstood one of the biggest missile attacks since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. About 40 missiles were recorded in the capital’s airspace,” regional authorities said in a statement.

Air-defence forces had shot down 37 of them, they added.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the water supply had been disrupted and that the metro had stopped running so people could shelter underground.

“Due to damage to the power system and emergency power outages, subway trains will not run until the end of the day today,” city officials later announced.

The Kyiv metro is a vital resource for the capital, which had a pre-war population of three million. It has been used as a city-wide bomb shelter since the Russian invasion.

– ‘Survive winter’ –

About half of Ukraine’s energy grid has been damaged in sustained attacks and the national provider warned Friday of emergency blackouts because of the “massive” wave of Russian attacks.

In Ukrainian-held Bakhmut — an eastern city at the epicentre of the war — some residents received wood stoves distributed by volunteers, AFP journalists said.

Bakhmut resident, 85-year-old Oleksandra was braving the cold to collect medication at a nearby pharmacy in the Donetsk region city.

“I’ll survive winter. I’ll just walk more to get warm,” the old woman told AFP.

In the south, fresh Russian shelling in Kherson, recently recaptured by Ukraine, killed one person and wounded three more.

Kherson has been subjected to persistent Russian shelling since Moscow’s forces retreated in November and power was cut in the city earlier this week.

The UN humanitarian coordinator for Ukraine, Denise Brown, said a woman working as a paramedic for the Ukrainian Red Cross had been killed by Thursday’s strikes on Kherson.

Russian attacks overall killed 14 on Thursday, the deputy head of the Ukrainian presidency Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.

In the Russian-controlled region of Lugansk in eastern Ukraine, Moscow-installed officials said shelling from Kyiv’s forces had killed eight and wounded 23.

– Putin to visit Belarus –

“The enemy is conducting barbaric shelling of cities and districts of the republic,” the Russian-installed leader of Lugansk Leonid Pasechnik said on social media.

Moscow has said the strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are a response to an explosion on the Kerch bridge connecting the Russian mainland to the Crimean peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.

The Kremlin has said it holds Kyiv ultimately responsible for the humanitarian impact of the strikes for refusing to capitulate to Russian negotiation terms.

But Ukrainian defence officials said this week that its forces had shot down a swarm of more than a dozen Iranian-made attack drones launched at Kyiv, a sign that Western-supplied systems are having an impact.

Separately on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he will visit Belarus next week for talks with his counterpart and ally Alexander Lukashenko.

Minsk said the pair would hold one-on-one talks as well as wider negotiations with their ministers on “Belarusian-Russian integration”.

Zelenskyy: Occupiers destroy every town and village in Donbas so there are no buildings for defense

Ukrayinska Pravda

Zelenskyy: Occupiers destroy every town and village in Donbas so there are no buildings for defense

Ukrainska Pravda – December 15, 2022

Atrocious Russian attacks continue in Donbas, the occupiers are physically destroying towns and villages in order for Ukrainian soldiers not to have buildings that can be used for defence.

Source: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his evening address

Quote: “Today in Donbas, as in all previous weeks, brutal Russian attacks continue. The occupiers throw everyone and everything they have into the offensive.

They cannot defeat our army, so they physically destroy every town and village so that there are no buildings, not even walls, that can be used for any kind of defence…”

Details: According to Zelenskyy, the only way to stop this is pushing Russian terrorist out of Ukrainian land step by step and “continuing the pressure on Russia, finding new ways to hold every Russian terrorist, every Russian oligarch who helps the terrorist state and all Russian officials and propagandists accountable for everything they are doing against Ukraine and against freedom as such.”

Are We in the West Weaker Than Ukrainians?

Nicholas Kristof – December 14, 2022

Three women in military fatigues try on boots in a room with gray walls and a stack of black shoe boxes in the corner.
Credit…Emile Ducke for The New York Times

“We will beat the Ukrainian out of you so that you love Russia,” a Russian interrogator told one torture survivor I spoke to in Ukraine, before he whipped her and raped her. That seems a pretty good summation of Vladimir Putin’s strategy.

It isn’t working in Ukraine, where Putin’s atrocities seem to be bolstering the will to fight back. That brave woman triumphed over her interrogators, albeit at horrific personal cost.

But I worry that we in the West are made of weaker stuff. Some of the most momentous decisions the United States will make in the coming months involve the level of support we will provide Ukraine, and I’ve had pushback from some readers who think President Biden is making a terrible mistake by resolutely helping Ukraine repel Russia.

A woman named Nancy protested on my Facebook page that I was more interested in securing Ukraine’s border than the American border. She argued that we should focus on our own challenges rather than Ukraine’s.

“We’re over our head in debt but funding a war that we shouldn’t be involved in,” she said. “Enough is enough.”

Polls find American support for aid to Ukraine still robust but slipping, especially among Republicans. And almost half of Americans want the United States to push Ukraine “to settle for peace as soon as possible,” even if it loses territory — a finding that must gladden Vladimir Putin’s heart.

The exhaustion with Western support for Ukraine may continue to gain ground in the coming months as people grow weary of high energy prices and, in the case of some European countries, possible rolling power cuts.

So let me make the case, to Nancy and others, for why we should continue to provide weaponry to Ukraine.

The fundamental misconception among many congressional Republicans (and some progressives on the left) is that we’re doing Ukraine a favor by sending it weapons. Not so. We are holding Ukraine’s coat as it is sacrificing lives and infrastructure in ways that benefit us, by degrading Russia’s military threat to NATO and Western Europe — and thus to us.

“They’re doing us a favor; they’re fighting our fight,” Wesley Clark, the retired American general and former supreme allied commander of NATO forces in Europe, told me. “The fight in Ukraine is a fight about the future of the international community.”

If the war ends in a way favorable to Russia, he argues, it will be a world less safe for Americans. One lesson the world would absorb would be the paramount importance of possessing nuclear weapons, for Ukraine was invaded after it gave up its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s — and Russia’s nuclear warheads today prevent a stronger Western military response.

“If Ukraine falls, there will certainly be a wave of nuclear proliferation,” Clark warned.

For years, military strategists have feared a Russian incursion into Estonia that would challenge NATO and cost lives of American troops. Ukrainians are weakening Russia’s forces so as to reduce that risk.

More broadly, perhaps the single greatest threat to world peace in the coming decade is the risk of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait that escalates into a war between America and China. To reduce that danger, we should help Taiwan build up its deterrent capacity — but perhaps the simplest way to reduce the likelihood of Xi Jinping acting aggressively is to stand united against Russia’s invasion. If the West falters and allows Putin to win in Ukraine, Xi will feel greater confidence that he can win in Taiwan.

Putin has been a destabilizing and brutal bully for many years — from Chechnya to Syria, Georgia to Moldova — partly because the world has been unwilling to stand up to him and partly because he possesses a powerful military force that Ukraine is now dismantling. Aside from energy, Russia’s economy is not substantial.

“Putin and Russia are weak,” Viktor Yushchenko, a former Ukrainian president who challenged Russia and then was mysteriously poisoned and disfigured, told me. “Russia is a poor country, an oil appendage to the world, a gas station.”

The world owes Ukraine for its willingness to finally stand up to Putin. If anything, I’d like to see the Biden administration carefully ratchet up the capabilities of the weaponry it supplies Ukraine, for it may be that the best way to end the war is simply to ensure that Putin finds the cost of it no longer worth paying.

I don’t mean to suggest that everyone backing peace negotiations is craven, fatigued or myopic. Gen. Mark Milley and other Pentagon officials are understandably worried that the Ukraine conflict could spiral out of control into a nuclear war. That’s a legitimate concern, and it’s always good to peer through the fog of war for off-ramps. But bowing to nuclear blackmail and rewarding an invasion would create their own risks for many years to come, and on balance those dangers seem greater than those of maintaining the present course.

In arguing for the West to stand with Ukraine, I’ve emphasized our national interest in doing so. But we have values at stake as well as interests, for there is also a moral question to face.

When one nation invades a neighbor and commits murder, pillage and rape, when it traffics in thousands of children, when it pulverizes the electrical grid to make civilians freeze in winter — in such a blizzard of likely war crimes, neutrality is not the high ground.

Let’s not let Russia beat the Ukrainian out of us: The world could use a spinal transplant from brave Ukrainians.

Nicholas Kristof joined The New York Times in 1984 and has been a columnist since 2001. He has won two Pulitzer Prizes, for his coverage of China and of the genocide in Darfur.