What Happened in Moscow: The Inside Story of How Trump’s Obsession With Putin Began.

Mother Jones

What Happened in Moscow: The Inside Story of How Trump’s Obsession With Putin Began.

His 2013 visit paved the way for a scandal that shook the world.

By David Cone and Michael Isikoff     March 8, 2028

This is the first of two excerpts adapted from Russian Roulette: The Inside Story of Putin’s War on America and the Election of Donald Trump (Twelve Books), by Michael Isikoff, chief investigative correspondent for Yahoo News, and David Corn, Washington bureau chief of Mother Jones. The book will be released on March 13.

It was late in the afternoon of November 9, 2013, in Moscow, and Donald Trump was getting anxious.

This was his second day in the Russian capital, and the brash businessman and reality TV star was running through a whirlwind schedule to promote that evening’s extravaganza at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall: the Miss Universe pageant, in which women from 86 countries would be judged before a worldwide television audience estimated at 1 billion.

Trump had purchased the pageant 17 years earlier, partnering with NBC. It was one of his most prized properties, bringing in millions of dollars a year in revenue and, perhaps as important, burnishing his image as an iconic international playboy celebrity. While in the Russian capital, Trump was also scouting for new and grand business opportunities, having spent decades trying—but failing—to develop high-end projects in Moscow. Miss Universe staffers considered it an open secret that Trump’s true agenda in Moscow was not the show but his desire to do business there.

Yet to those around him that afternoon, Trump seemed gripped by one question: Where was Vladimir Putin?

From the moment five months earlier when Trump announced Miss Universe would be staged that year in Moscow, he had seemed obsessed with the idea of meeting the Russian president. “Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in Moscow—if so, will he become my new best friend?” Trump had tweeted in June.

Once in Moscow, Trump received a private message from the Kremlin, delivered by Aras Agalarov, an oligarch close to Putin and Trump’s partner in hosting the Miss Universe event there: “Mr. Putin would like to meet Mr. Trump.” That excited Trump. The American developer thought there was a strong chance the Russian leader would attend the pageant. But as his time in Russia wore on, Trump heard nothing else. He became uneasy.

“We all knew that the event was approved by Putin,” a Miss Universe official later said. “You can’t pull off something like this in Russia unless Putin says it’s okay.”

“Is Putin coming?” he kept asking.

With no word from the Kremlin, it was starting to look grim. Then Agalarov conveyed a new message. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s right-hand man and press spokesman, would be calling any moment. Trump was relieved, especially after it was explained to him that few people were closer to Putin than Peskov. If anybody could facilitate a rendezvous with Putin, it was Peskov. “If you get a call from Peskov, it’s like you’re getting a call from Putin,” Rob Goldstone, a British-born publicist who had helped bring the beauty contest to Moscow, told him. But time was running out. The show would be starting soon, and following the broadcast Trump would be departing the city.

Finally, Agalarov’s cellphone rang. It was Peskov, and Agalarov handed the phone to an eager Trump.

Trump’s trip to Moscow for the Miss Universe contest was a pivotal moment. He had for years longed to develop a glittering Trump Tower in Moscow. With this visit, he would come near—so near—to striking that deal. He would be close to branding the Moscow skyline with his world-famous name and enhancing his own status as a sort of global oligarch.

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During his time in Russia, Trump would demonstrate his affinity for the nation’s authoritarian leader with flattering and fawning tweets and remarks that were part of a long stretch of comments suggesting an admiration for Putin. Trump’s curious statements about Putin—before, during, and after this Moscow jaunt—would later confound US intelligence officials, members of Congress, and Americans of various political inclinations, even Republican Party loyalists.

What could possibly explain Trump’s unwavering sympathy for the Russian strongman? His refusal to acknowledge Putin’s repressive tactics, his whitewashing of Putin’s abuses in Ukraine and Syria, his dismissal of the murders of Putin’s critics, his blind eye to Putin’s cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns aimed at subverting Western democracies?

Trump’s brief trip to Moscow held clues to this mystery. His two days there would later become much discussed because of allegations that he engaged in weird sexual antics while in Russia—claims that were not confirmed. But this visit was significant because it revealed what motivated Trump the most: the opportunity to build more monuments to himself and to make more money. Trump realized he could attain none of his dreams in Moscow without forging a bond with the former KGB lieutenant colonel who was the president of Russia.

This trek to Russia was the birth of a bromance—or something darker—that would soon upend American politics and then scandalize Trump’s presidency. And it began in the most improbable way—as the brainstorm of a hustling music publicist trying to juice the career of a second-tier pop singer.

Trump’s Miss Universe landed in Moscow because of an odd couple: Rob Goldstone and Emin Agalarov.

Goldstone was a heavyset, gregarious bon vivant who liked to post photos on Facebook poking fun at himself for being unkempt and overweight. He once wrote a piece for the New York Times headlined, “The Tricks and Trials of Traveling While Fat.” He had been an Australian tabloid reporter and a publicist for Michael Jackson’s 1987 Bad tour. Now he co-managed a PR firm, and his top priority was serving the needs of an Azerbaijani pop singer of moderate tal­ent named Emin Agalarov.

Emin—he went by his first name—was young, handsome, and rich. He yearned to be an international star. His father, Aras Agalarov, was a billionaire developer who had made it big in Rus­sia, building commercial and residential complexes, and who also owned properties in the United States. After spending his early years in Russia, Emin grew up in Tenafly, New Jersey, obsessed with Elvis Presley. He imitated the King of Rock and Roll in dress, style, and voice. He later studied business at Marymount Manhat­tan College and subsequently pursued a double career, working in his father’s company and trying to make it as a singer. He married Leyla Aliyeva, the daughter of the president of Azerbaijan, whose regime faced repeated allegations of corruption. After moving to Baku, the country’s capital, Emin soon earned a nickname: “the Elvis of Azerbaijan.”

Emin cultivated the image of a rakish pop star, chronicling a hedonistic lifestyle on lnstagram by posting shots from beaches, nightclubs, and various hot spots. He brandished hats and T-shirts with randy sayings, such as “If You Had a Bad Day Let’s Get Naked.” But his music career was stalled. For help, he had turned to Goldstone.

During a January 2015 meeting, Trump told Emin, “Maybe next time, you’ll be performing at the White House.”

In early 2013, Goldstone was looking to get Emin more media exposure, especially in the United States. A friend offered a suggestion: Perhaps Emin could perform at a Miss Universe pageant. The event had a reputation for showcasing emerging talent. The 2008 contest had featured up-and-comer Lady Gaga. (Trump would later brag—with his usual hyperbole—that this appearance was Lady Gaga’s big break.) About the same time, Goldstone and Emin needed an attractive woman for a music video for Emin’s lat­est song—and they wanted the most beautiful woman they could find. It seemed obvious to them that they should reach out to Miss Universe.

This led to meetings with Paula Shugart, the president of the Miss Universe Organization, who reported directly to Trump. She agreed to make the reigning Miss Universe, Olivia Culpo, available for the music video. (Within the Miss Universe outfit, Culpo, who had previously been Miss USA, was widely considered a Trump favorite.) And over the course of several conversations with Shugart, Goldstone and Emin discussed where the next Miss Universe contest would be held. At one point, Emin proposed to Shugart that Miss Universe consider mounting its 2013 pageant in Azerbaijan. That didn’t fly with Shugart.

At a subsequent meeting, Emin revised the pitch. “Why don’t we have it in Moscow?” he suggested. Shugart was interested but hesitant. The pageant had looked at Moscow previously. It had not identified a suitable venue there, and it was fearful of running into too much red tape. “What if you had a partner who owns the biggest venue in Moscow?” Emin replied. “Between myself and my father, we can cut through the red tape.”

The venue Emin was referring to was Crocus City Hall, a grand 7,000-seat theater complex built by his father. Moreover, the influential Aras Agalarov could help smooth the way—and bypass the notorious bureaucratic morass that was a regular feature of doing business in Russia.

A native Azerbaijani, Aras Agalarov was known as “Putin’s Builder.” He had accumulated a billion-dollar-plus real estate fortune in part by catering, like Trump, to the super-wealthy. One of his projects was a Moscow housing community for oligarchs that boasted an artificial beach and waterfall. Agalarov had been tapped by Putin to build the massive infrastructure—conference halls, roadways, and housing—for the 2012 Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vladivostok. He had completed the project in record time. That venture and others—the construction of soccer stadiums for the World Cup in Russia and the building of a superhighway around Moscow—had earned Agalarov Putin’s gratitude. Later in 2013, Putin would pin a medal on Agalarov’s lapel: “Order of Honor of the Russian Federation.”

When Shugart first mentioned to Trump the idea of partnering with a Russian billionaire tight with Putin to bring the Miss Universe contest to Moscow, the celebrity developer was intrigued. At last, here was an inside track to break into the Russian market. And Agalarov agreed to kick in a good chunk of the estimated $20 million pageant budget. Trump was all for it. A Putin-connected oligarch would be underwriting his endeavor.

But the deal had to include something for Emin. Trump’s Miss Universe company guaranteed that Emin would perform two musical numbers during the show. He would be showcased before a global television audience. He and Goldstone believed this could help him achieve his dream: cracking the American pop market.

Even before that, there would be a payoff for Emin. In May, Culpo showed up in Los Angeles for the one-day shoot. Emin was filmed strolling through a deserted nighttime town looking for his love—to the tune of his song “Amor”—and a sultry woman played by Culpo walked in and out of the beam of the flashlight he carried. A few weeks later, the video was done. Emin held a release party at a Moscow nightclub owned by his family. It was a lavish affair. Russian celebrities dropped by. Shugart and Culpo flew in to join the celebration.

In June 2013, Trump arrived in Las Vegas to preside over the Miss USA contest, which was owned by the Miss Universe com­pany. Goldstone, Aras Agalarov, and Emin were in town for the event. Emin posted a photo of himself outside Trump’s hotel off the Vegas strip wearing a Trump T-shirt and boasting a hat exclaim­ing, “You’re Fired”—the tagline from Trump’s hit television show, The Apprentice. Trump had yet to meet the Agalarovs. But when they finally got together in the lobby of his hotel, he pointed at Aras Agalarov and exclaimed, “Look who came to me! This is the richest man in Russia!” (Agalarov was not the richest man in Russia.)

On the evening of June 15, the two Russians and their British publicist were planning a big dinner at CUT, a restaurant located at the Palazzo hotel and casino. Much to their surprise, they received a call from Keith Schiller, Trump’s longtime security chief and confidant, informing them that his boss wanted to join their party. Sure, they said, please come.

At the dinner for about 20 people in a private room, Emin sat between Trump and Goldstone. Aras Agalarov was across from Trump. Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal attorney who acted as the businessman’s consigliere, was on the other side of Goldstone. Also at the table was an unusual associate for Trump: Ike Kaveladze, the US-based vice president of Crocus International, an Agalarov company. In 2000, a Government Accountability Office report identified a business run by Kaveladze as responsible for opening more than 2,000 bank accounts at two US banks on behalf of Russian-based brokers. The accounts were used to move more than $1.4 billion from individuals in Russia and Eastern Europe around the globe in an operation the report suggested was “for the purpose of laundering money.” His main client at the time was Crocus International. (Kaveladze claimed the GAO probe was “another Russian witch-hunt in the United States.”)

Trump was charming and solicitous of his new partners. He asked Aras what kind of jet he owned. A Gulfstream 550, Aras answered. But the Russian billionaire quickly noted that he had a Gulfstream 650 on order. “If that was me,” Trump replied, “I would have said I was one of only 100 people in the world who have a Gulfstream 650 on order.” It was a small Trumpian lesson in self-promotion. And Trump, proud of himself, turned to Goldstone to emphasize his point: “There is nobody in the world who is a better self-promoter than Donald Trump.”

“When it comes to doing business in Russia, it’s very hard to find people in there you can trust,” Trump told Emin Agalarov. “We’re going to have a great relationship.”

After the dinner, part of the group headed to an after-party at a raunchy nightclub in the Palazzo mall called The Act. Shortly after midnight, the entourage arrived at the club. The group included Trump, Emin, Goldstone, Culpo, and Nana Meriwether, the outgoing Miss USA. Trump and Culpo were photographed in the lobby by a local paparazzi. The club’s management had heard that Trump might be there that night and had arranged to have plenty of Diet Coke on hand for the tea-totaling Trump. (The owners had also discussed whether they should prepare a special performance for the developer, perhaps a dominatrix who would tie him up onstage or a little-person transvestite Trump impersonator—and nixed the idea.)

The group was ushered to the owner’s box, where Emin had an unusual encounter. Alex Soros, the son of George Soros, the bil­lionaire philanthropist who funded opposition to Putin, was there as Meriwether’s date. Emin started chatting with Soros and invited him to see him in Moscow. “You should know,” Soros replied, “I’m no fan of Mr. Putin.” And, he added, he was a big admirer of Mikhail Khodorkovsky—the oligarch turned Putin critic then serving time in a Siberian prison. Emin laughed it off.

The Act was no ordinary nightclub. Since March, it had been the target of undercover surveillance by the Nevada Gaming Con­trol Board and investigators for the club’s landlord—the Palazzo, which was owned by GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson—after complaints about its obscene performances. The club featured seminude women performing simulated sex acts of bestiality and grotesque sadomasochism—skits that a few months later would prompt a Nevada state judge to issue an injunction barring any more of its “lewd” and “offensive” performances. Among the club’s regular acts cited by the judge was one called “Hot for Teacher,” in which naked college girls simulate urinating on a professor. In another act, two women disrobe and then “one female stands over the other female and simulates urinating while the other female catches the urine in two wine glasses.” (The Act shut down after the judge’s ruling. There is no public record of which skits were performed the night Trump was present.)

As The Act’s scantily clad dancers gyrated in front of them late that night, Emin, Goldstone, Culpo, and the rest toasted Trump’s birthday. (He had turned 67 the day before.) Trump remained focused on Emin and their future partnership. “When it comes to doing business in Russia, it’s very hard to find people in there you can trust,” he told the young pop singer, according to Goldstone. “We’re going to have a great relationship.

The next night, toward the end of the Miss USA broadcast, Trump hit the stage to announce that the Miss Universe pageant would be held the coming November in Russia. In front of the audi­ence, the Agalarovs and Trump signed the contract for the event. Trump declared, “This will be one of the biggest and most beautiful Miss Universe events ever.” On the red carpet earlier that evening, Trump had hailed Emin and Aras Agalarov: “These are the most powerful people in all of Russia, the richest men in Russia.”

Two days later, Trump expressed his desire on Twitter to become Putin’s “new best friend.” Emin quickly responded with his own tweet: “Mr. @realDonaldTrump anyone you meet becomes your best friend—so I’m sure Mr. Putin will not be an exception in Moscow.”

The Moscow event held great potential for Trump to score in Russia. Now he was partnering with a Russian billionaire connected to other oligarchs and favored by Putin. (Trump already had a controversial venture underway in Baku, where he was developing a hotel with the son of the transportation minister of the corrupt regime. This project would soon founder.) “For Trump, this Miss Universe event was all about expanding the Trump Organization brand and getting his names on buildings,” a Miss Universe associate recalled.

And anyone who wanted to do big deals in Russia—especially an American—could only do so if Putin was keen on it. “We all knew that the event was approved by Putin,” a Miss Universe official later said. “You can’t pull off something like this in Russia unless Putin says it’s okay.” Trump would only be making money in Russia because Putin was permitting him to do so.

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Immediately, the contest was slammed by controversy. A few days before the announcement in Las Vegas, the Russian Duma had passed a law that made it illegal to expose children to information about homosexuality. The new anti-gay measure was the latest move by Putin to appeal to the conservative Orthodox Church and ultranationalist forces. It came amid a disturbing rise in anti-gay violence throughout Russia. In the southern city of Volgograd a few weeks earlier, a gay man’s naked body was found in a courtyard, his skull smashed, his genitals scarred by beer bottles. The atmosphere was “ugly and brutal,” a US diplomat who then served in Moscow later said. “There would be these hooligans who would go after gay people in bars and beat them up. There was a pretty vicious cam­paign against the LGBT community.”

Human rights and gay rights advocates in Russia and around the world denounced the new law. Vodka boycotts were launched. There was a push to relocate the Winter Olympics, scheduled to be held the following year in Sochi, Russia. In the United States, the Human Rights Campaign called on Trump and the Miss Uni­verse Organization to move the event out of Russia, noting that under the new law a contestant could be prosecuted if she were to voice support for gay rights.

The uproar over the Russian anti-gay act confronted Trump with a dilemma—how to distance himself from the law without jeopardizing his big Russia play. The Miss Universe Organization issued a statement asserting that it “believes in equality for all indi­viduals.” That didn’t stop the protests. Bravo talk-show host Andy Cohen and entertainment reporter Giuliana Rancic, who had pre­viously co-hosted the pageant, quit the show. Miss Universe officials scrambled and found replacements: Thomas Roberts, an openly gay MSNBC anchor, and former Spice Girl Mel B.

Roberts explained his decision in an op-ed on MSNBC.com: “Boycotting and vilifying from the outside is too easy. Rather, I choose to offer my support of the LGBT community in Russia by going to Moscow and hosting this event as a journalist, an anchor, and a man who happens to be gay. Let people see I am no different than anyone else.

This was a godsend for Trump. He granted Roberts an inter­view on MSNBC. “I think you’re going to do fantastically,” he told Roberts, “and I love the fact that you feel the same about the whole situation as me.” Inevitably, the conversation turned toward Putin and whether he would appear at the pageant. “I know for a fact that he wants very much to come,” Trump said, “but we’ll have to see. We haven’t heard yet, but we have invited him.”

Though US relations with Moscow were at this point deterio­rating, Trump was touting Putin as a wily and strong leader. In September, Putin published an op-ed in the New York Times that opposed a possible US military strike against the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria (in retaliation for its use of chemical weapons) and that denounced President Barack Obama for referring to American exceptionalism. The next day, Trump on Fox News commended Putin’s move. “It really makes him look like a great leader,” he said.

The following month, Trump appeared on David Letterman’s late-night show. The host asked if Trump had ever done any deals with the Russians. “I’ve done a lot of business with the Russians,” Trump replied, adding, “They’re smart and they’re tough.” Letterman inquired if Trump had ever met Putin. “He’s a tough guy,” Trump said. “I met him once.” In fact, there was no record he ever had.

Trump landed in Moscow on November 8, having flown there with casino owner Phil Ruffin on Ruffin’s private jet. (Ruffin, a long-time Trump friend, was married to a former Miss Ukraine who had competed in the 2004 Miss Universe contest.) Trump headed to the Ritz-Carlton, where he was booked into the presidential suite that Obama had stayed in when he was in Moscow four years earlier.

There was a brief meeting with Miss Universe executives and the Agalarovs. Schiller would later tell congressional investigators that a Russian approached Trump’s party with an offer: He wanted to send five women to Trump’s hotel room that night. Was this traditional Russian courtesy—or an overture by Russian intelligence to collect kompromat (compromising material) on the prominent visitor? Schiller said he didn’t take the offer seriously and told the Russian, “We don’t do that type of stuff.”

Trump was soon whisked to a gala lunch at one of the two Moscow branches of Nobu, the famous sushi restaurant. (Nobu Matsuhisa, its founder, was one of the celebrity judges for the Miss Universe telecast. Agalarov was one of the co-owners of the restaurant; another co-investor was actor Robert De Niro.) An assortment of Russian businessmen was there, including Herman Gref, the chief executive of Sberbank, a Russian state-owned bank and one of the co-sponsors of the Miss Universe pageant.

“[Trump] often thought a woman was too ethnic or too dark-skinned. He had a particular type of woman he thought was a winner. Others were too ethnic. He liked a type. There was Olivia Culpo, Dayanara Torres [the 1993 winner], and, no surprise, East European women.”

Trump was treated with much reverence. He gave a brief welcoming talk. “Ask me a question,” he told the crowd. The first query was about the European debt crisis and the impact that the financial woes of Greece would have on it. “Interesting,” Trump replied. “Have any of you ever seen The Apprentice?” Trump spoke at length about his hit television show, repeatedly noting what a tre­mendous success it was. He said not a word about Greece or debt. When he was done with his remarks, he thanked them all for com­ing and received a standing ovation. (Later, Aras Agalarov, remi­niscing about this lunch, would note, “If [Trump] does not know the subject, he will talk about a subject he knows.”)

Gref, a close Putin adviser, was pleased with his face time with Trump. “There was a good feeling from the meeting,” he later said. “He’s a sensible person…[with] a good attitude toward Russia.”

Trump next went to the theater in Crocus City Hall. It was the day before the show. This was Trump’s chance to review the con­testants and exercise an option he always retained under the rules of his pageants: to overrule the selection of judges and pick the con­testants he wanted among the finalists. In short, no woman was a finalist until Trump said so.

At each pageant, Miss Universe staffers would set up a special room for Trump backstage. It had to conform to his precise require­ments. He needed his favorite snacks: Nutter Butters and white Tic Tacs. And Diet Coke. There could be no distracting pictures on the wall. The room had to be immaculate. He required unscented soap and hand towels—rolled, not folded.

In this room would be videos of the finalists who had been selected days earlier in a preliminary competition and the other contestants, particularly footage of the women in gowns and swim­ suits. Here, a day or two before the final telecast, Trump would review the judges’ decisions.

Frequently, Trump would toss out finalists and replace them with others he preferred. “If there were too many women of color, he would make changes,” a Miss Universe staffer later noted. Another Miss Universe staffer recalled, “He often thought a woman was too ethnic or too dark-skinned. He had a particular type of woman he thought was a winner. Others were too ethnic. He liked a type. There was Olivia Culpo, Dayanara Torres [the 1993 winner], and, no surprise, East European women.” On occasion, according to this staffer, Trump would reject a woman “who had snubbed his advances.”

Once in a while, Shugart would politely challenge Trump’s choices. Sometimes she would win the argument, sometimes not. “If he didn’t like a woman because she looked too ethnic, you could sometimes persuade him by telling him she was a princess and married to a football player,” a staffer later explained.

That night, Aras Agalarov hosted a party at Crocus City Hall to celebrate his 58th birthday. Various VIPs were invited. Trump by now was exhausted. He spent much of the time sitting with Shugart and Schiller. At one point, Goldstone approached him with a request from Emin. The pop star was filming a new music video. Could Trump the next day shoot a scene that would be based on The Apprentice? Trump agreed, but it had to be early— between 7:45 and 8:10 in the morning. Sure, Goldstone said. Twenty-five minutes of Trump would have to do.

At about 1:30 a.m., Trump left the party and headed to the Ritz-Carlton hotel a few blocks from the Kremlin. This would be his only night in Moscow. According to Schiller, on the way to the hotel, he told Trump about the earlier offer of women, and he and Trump laughed about it. In Schiller’s account, after Trump was in his room, he stood guard outside for a while and then left.

(But Schiller by another account was accustomed to being a go-between for Trump. In a 2011 interview with In Touch Weekly magazine that was not published until early 2018, Stormy Daniels, a porn star who claimed she had an 11-month-long affair with Trump, identified Schiller as the Trump aide who facilitated her secret liaisons with Trump. “That’s how I got in touch with him,” Daniels said. “I never had Donald’s cellphone number. I always used Keith’s. I went up to the room and he said, “Oh yeah, he’s waiting for you inside.’”)

The morning of November 9, Trump showed up for Emin’s shoot. He was needed for the final scene. The video would open with a boardroom meeting with Emin and others reviewing Miss Universe contestants. Emin would doze off and dream of being with the various contestants. Enter Trump for the climax—Emin wakes up with Trump shouting at him: “What’s wrong with you, Emin? Emin, let’s get with it. You’re always late. You’re just another pretty face. I’m really tired of you. You’re fired!” Trump’s bit would only last 15 seconds. Yet soon Emin would release a video that he could promote as featuring the world-famous Trump.

The rest of the day was as hectic as the first: a press conference with 300 Russian reporters and more interviews, includ­ing one with Roberts in which Trump was pressed again about Putin.

Do you have a relationship with Putin and any sway with the Russian leader? Roberts asked him. Trump was unequivocal: “I do have a relationship.” He paused. “I can tell you that he’s very inter­ested in what we’re doing here today. He’s probably very interested in what you and I are saying today. And I’m sure he’s going to be seeing it in some form.”

Trump could barely contain his praise for Russia’s president: “Look, he’s done a very brilliant job in terms of what he represents and who he’s representing. If you look at what he’s done with Syria, if you look at so many of the different things, he has really eaten our president’s lunch. Let’s not kid ourselves. He’s done an amazing job…He’s put himself at the forefront of the world as a leader in a short period of time.”

But Trump’s comments about a “relationship” with Putin were, at this point, wishful thinking. The word had spread through the Miss Universe staff that Trump fiercely craved Putin’s atten­dance at the pageant. In preparation for Putin’s possible appear­ance, Thomas Roberts and Mel B were taught several words in Russian to welcome the Russian president: “hello,” “thank you,” and so on. With her cockney accent, Mel B had trouble pronounc­ing the Russian words. She was told she had to get this right because Putin might come.

By late afternoon, Trump’s anxiety was palpable. There had been no word. He kept asking if anybody had heard from Putin. Then Agalarov’s phone rang. “Mr. Peskov would like to speak to Mr. Trump,” Agalarov said.

Trump suggested to an associate that after the telecast they could spread the word that Putin had dropped by. “No one will know for sure if he came or not.”

Trump and Peskov spoke for a few minutes. Afterward, Trump recounted the conversation to Goldstone. Peskov, he said, was apologetic. Putin very much wanted to meet Trump. But there was a problem nobody had anticipated: a Moscow traffic jam. King Willem-Alexander and Queen Maxima of the Netherlands were in town, and Putin was obligated to meet them at the Kremlin. But the royal couple had gotten stuck in traffic and was late, making it impossible for the Russian president to find time for Trump. Nor would he be able to attend the Miss Universe pageant that evening.

Putin wanted to make amends, though. Peskov conveyed an invitation for Trump to attend the upcoming Olympics, where perhaps he and Putin could then meet. He also told Trump that Putin would be sending a high-level emissary to the evening’s event—Vladimir Kozhin, a senior Putin aide. And, Peskov told Trump, Putin had a gift for him.

It was a crushing disappointment for Trump. But he quickly thought of how to spin it, suggesting to an associate that after the telecast they could spread the word that Putin had dropped by. “No one will know for sure if he came or not,” he said.

One reason Trump’s hoped-for meeting with the Russian president never materialized was his attention to another project. Trump was originally scheduled to spend two nights in Moscow—which would have yielded a wider window for a get-together with Putin. But Trump had decided to attend the celebration of evangelist Billy Graham’s 95th birthday on November 7 at the Grove Park Inn in Asheville, North Carolina. In Russia, Trump told Goldstone that it had been necessary for him to show up at the Graham event: “There is something I’m planning down the road, and it’s really important.”

Goldstone knew exactly what Trump was talking about: a run for the White House. Franklin Graham, the evangelist’s son, was an influential figure among religious conservatives. When Trump two years earlier was championing birtherism—the baseless conspiracy theory that Barack Obama had been born in Kenya and was ineligible to be president—Graham joined the birther bandwagon, raising questions about the president’s birth certificate. Appearing at this event and currying favor with Franklin Graham was a mandatory stop for Trump, if he was serious about seeking the Republican presidential nomination. And it paid off: Trump and his wife Melania were seated at the VIP table along with Rupert Murdoch and Sarah Palin. Franklin Graham later said that Trump was among those who “gave their hearts to Christ” that night.

Before the Miss Universe broadcast, there was the obligatory red-carpet event. Camera crews from around the world recorded the strutting celebrities. A triumphant-looking Trump posed with Aras and Emin Agalarov for the paparazzi. Trump dodged a question about whether Emin had been booked to perform based on merit.

“Russia has just been an amazing place,” Trump exclaimed. “You see what’s happening here. It’s incredible.” Behind him was a banner featuring the logos of the Trump Organization, Miss Uni­verse, Sberbank, Mercedes, and NBC. The NBC peacock was in black and white, without its usual rainbow of colors. Officials at Agalarov’s company had ordered Miss Universe staffers to eschew the rainbow, fearing it would be seen as a gay pride message.

Edita Shaumyan caught Trump’s eye. “You’re beautiful,” Trump told her. “Wow, your eyes, your eyes.” According to Shaumyan, “He said, ‘Let’s go to America. Come with me to America.’”

Thomas Roberts walked the red carpet with his husband. He wore a bright pink tuxedo jacket—something he would never do back home in New York. He was sending his own message. In inter­views, he explicitly denounced Putin’s anti-gay laws.

Other celebs and local notables strolled past the entertain­ment reporters. The group included Kozhin and a curious guest: Alimzhan Tokhtakhounov, a.k.a. “the Little Taiwanese,” one of Russia’s most prominent suspected mobsters and a fugitive from US justice. Tokhtakhounov had an odd link to Trump’s signa­ture property: Seven months earlier, he had been indicted in the United States for protecting a high-stakes illegal gambling opera­tion run out of Trump Tower. Additional Trump guests included Chuck LaBella, an NBC executive who worked on Trump’s Celeb­rity Apprentice, and Bob Van Ronkel, an American expatriate who ran a business specializing in bringing Hollywood celebrities to Russian events. (Van Ronkel once had tried to produce an Ameri­can television show extolling the KGB and its heroic exploits.)

The show went off well. Trump sat in the front row next to Agalarov. Emin performed two of his Euro-pop numbers. Aerosmith’s Steven Tyler, one of the judges, pumped out his classic hit “Dream On.” For the finale, Culpo crowned Miss Venezuela the new Miss Universe. There was no mention during the broadcast of the controversy over the anti-gay law.

After the event, there was a rowdy after-party with lots of vodka and loud music. A 26-year-old aspiring actress, Edita Shaumyan, made her way into the VIP section, entering the roped-off area the same time as a famous Russian rap singer named Timati. Shaumyan caught Trump’s eye. He approached her, gestured to Timati, and asked, “Wait, is this your boyfriend? You’re not free?” She said no. “You’re beautiful,” Trump told her. “Wow, your eyes, your eyes.” According to Shaumyan, “He said, ‘Let’s go to America. Come with me to America.’ And I said, ‘No, no, no. I’m an Armenian. We’re very strict. You need to meet my mother first.’” When other women approached, trying to get photographs with Trump, he took hold of Shaumyan’s arm and said, “Don’t go. Stay. Stay.” Shaumyan took selfies with him. (She later produced five photos and a video of her with Trump that night.) But nothing further happened. Trump later had somebody give Shaumyan his business card with his phone number on it. She never called.

From the party, Trump headed to the airport. He was going straight home on another Ruffin jet. The next day, he called Roberts. He told him he was pleased with the show and that it had been a smash, with great ratings. That was not accurate—at least not in the United States. The telecast drew 3.8 million viewers, much less than the 6.1 million who had watched it the previous year.

In the following days, various media outlets in Russia and the United States reported that Trump had used his visit to Moscow to launch a major project in the Russian capital. “US ‘Miss Universe’ Billionaire Plans Russian Trump Tower,” declared the headline on RT, the Russian government-owned TV channel and website. The Moscow Times proclaimed, “Donald Trump Planning Skyscraper in Moscow.” Trump’s partners in the Trump SoHo project he had developed in New York City—Alex Sapir and Rotem Rosen—had come to Moscow for the event and met with Agalarov and Trump to discuss the possibilities.

Agalarov’s daughter showed up at the Miss Universe office in New York City bearing a gift for Trump from Putin…Inside was a sealed letter from the Russian autocrat. What the letter said has never been revealed.

It seemed things were moving fast. The state-owned Sberbank announced it had struck a “strategic cooperation agreement” with the Crocus Group to finance about 70 percent of a project that would include a tower bearing the Trump name. If the deal went ahead, Trump would officially be doing business in Moscow with the Russian government.

“The Russian market is attracted to me,” Trump told Real Estate Weekly“I have a great relationship with many Russians.” He added, with his customary exaggeration, “Almost all of the oligarchs” had been at the Miss Universe event.

Back in the United States, Trump tweeted out the good news: “I just got back from Russia—learned lots & lots. Moscow is a very interesting and amazing place!” The next day he tweeted at Aras Agalarov, “I had a great weekend with you and your family. You have done a FANTASTIC job. TRUMP TOWER-MOSCOW is next. EMIN was WOW!

The project moved further along than publicly known. A letter of intent to build the new Trump Tower was signed by the Trump Organization and Agalarov’s company. Donald Trump Jr. was placed in charge of the project.

Trump was finally on his way in Russia. And shortly after the Miss Universe event, Agalarov’s daughter showed up at the Miss Universe office in New York City bearing a gift for Trump from Putin. It was a black lacquered box. Inside was a sealed letter from the Russian autocrat. What the letter said has never been revealed.

In February 2014, Ivanka Trump flew to Moscow to scout potential sites for the Trump Tower project with Emin Agalarov. “We thought that building a Trump Tower next to an Agalarov tower—having the two big names—could be a really cool project to execute,” Emin later said.

But international events would quickly intervene. Weeks after Ivanka’s visit, the Obama administration and the European Union imposed tough sanctions on Russia in response to Putin’s annexation of Crimea and his military intervention in Ukraine. It would be a kick to Russia’s faltering economy, already struggling because of the plummeting price of oil. And one round of sanctions imposed by the European Union targeted Russian banks in which the Russia government held a majority interest—that included Sberbank, which had agreed to finance the Trump deal. Its access to capital was now hindered.

Rob Goldstone suspected the demise of Trump’s project with the Agalarovs influenced Trump’s view of sanctions: “They had interrupted a business deal that Trump was keenly interested in.”

In this environment, the plans for the Trump Tower in Moscow crumbled. According to the Trump Organization, Ivanka Trump, after touring Moscow with Emin, killed the deal for business reasons. But Rob Goldstone suspected the demise of Trump’s project with the Agalarovs influenced Trump’s view of sanctions: “They had interrupted a business deal that Trump was keenly interested in.”

That deal was dead. But Trump’s involvement with Russia and Putin was not done. He still had a close bond with an influential oligarch, Aras Agalarov, who was wired into the Kremlin. And he stayed in touch with his Miss Universe pals, Emin and Goldstone. In January 2015, nearly a year after Putin’s invasion in Ukraine, Trump had Emin and Goldstone as guests to his office in Trump Tower—a meeting that was never publicly revealed during the investigations that followed the 2016 election. As Goldstone recalled it, they found Trump listening to the blaring sounds of a “hideous” rap video about Trump. The lyrics were ridiculing Trump, and Goldstone asked, “Have you listened to the words?” Trump replied, “Who cares about the words? It has 90 million hits on YouTube.” While they chatted, Trump was encouraging to Emin, who had performed at the Miss Universe contest in 2013: “Maybe next time, you’ll be performing at the White House.”

Seventeen months later, in June 2016, Goldstone would return to Trump Tower—this time escorting a Russian-led delegation dispatched by the Agalarovs, offering potentially derogatory information on Hillary Clinton, courtesy of the Kremlin, to the top officials of Trump’s presidential campaign.

Image credit: Pavel Golovkin/AP; Olivier Douliery/CNP/ZUMA; Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AP

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Nationalist autocrats are on the march. Trump yawns.

Yahoo News – Matt Bai’s Political World

Nationalist autocrats are on the march. Trump yawns.

Matt Bai, National Political Columnist – Yahoo News   March 8, 2018

Yahoo News photo illustration; photos: AP, Getty

At this time seven years ago, what came to be known as the Arab Spring was blossoming across the Middle East, spreading the ideal of reform. It was possible to think then that what the conservative theorist Francis Fukuyama had predicted at the end of the Cold War, in a book called “The End of History and the Last Man,” was actually coming to pass — that eons of autocracy were ending, and a global age of democratic self-determinism had dawned.

As it turns out, though: not really. And not just because Egypt is back to military rule, while Syria and Yemen and Libya are each engaged in all-out civil war.

What you might have missed over the last week or so — with all this mesmerizing spectacle about coming tariffs and an exodus of White House aides and a guy who briefly worked for the campaign publicly melting down on a string of cable shows — is a rush back toward the repression and militarism of the 20th century in some of the world’s most powerful nations.

In China, Xi Jinping just woke up one morning and made himself president for life. In Russia, Vladimir Putin, on the verge of achieving the same status, threatened last week to unleash a new generation of nukes on Florida. In North Korea, the strongman Kim Jong Un has managed to reopen talks with the South by menacing the region with missiles.

It really is stupefying, as others have pointed out, that the American government, currently administered by the party of Ronald Reagan, offers zero response to any of this. (You would think President Trump would at least rise to defend the territorial integrity of Mar-a-Lago, considering what nuclear annihilation might mean for property values.)

But there’s a deeper, more vexing question here about where this president fits into the moment. Is Trump’s presidency causing this sharp turn in the historical current, or is he merely a product of it?

If you’re not quite old enough to remember the fall of the Berlin Wall or Boris Yeltsin standing on the tank (or, for that matter, Boris Yeltsin), then let’s very roughly revisit the sweep of recent history. The end of the Cold War between East and West, after nearly 50 years of proxy wars and client states around the world, unleashed a series of forces that are only now coming into focus.

First came the sudden release of nationalist and religious tensions that had been bottled up during the long conflict between capitalism and communism. This led to wars, persecution and waves of immigration. And all of that was exacerbated by the revolution in digital technology, which displaced whole industries and created the tools for both spreading ideologies and organizing movements.

At the same time, though, as all of these modern forces were destabilizing communities and causing people everywhere to seek solidarity in national or religious identity, elites in the industrialized nations were talking about something completely different: integration, open borders, global markets. They were exhorting citizens to abandon old identities, rather than cling to them.

“Part of the internationalization effort was to say that cultures aren’t different, that we are all the same,” the Yale professor John Lewis Gaddis told me this week. “That, I think, was a mistake.”

I called Gaddis because he’s one of the nation’s preeminent scholars of the Cold War period, and I wondered if he thought we were now headed back to something more like the period he had studied.

But Gaddis told me that he now looks at the Cold War as a kind of brief intermission in the longer drama of world events, which is driven less by heady ideology than by nationalist identity and absolutism.

What we’re actually moving toward, in other words, is a continuation of exactly where we had been heading for centuries before the advent of nuclear weapons forced the world to temporarily divide between ideological spheres of influence. We’re going back to the time of czars and kings ensconced behind walls of ethnic pride.

“What’s happening now,” Gaddis said, “is a pretty widespread, fast-moving backlash against internationalism.”

So, to get back to my initial question, what’s Trump’s role in all of this re-entrenchment and creeping authoritarianism — cause or effect?

The answer, I think, is some of both.

You could make an argument, certainly, that Trumpism is a close cousin of the nationalist movements in Europe and Russia, which preceded it. The backlash against internationalism that Gaddis talks about, the simmering outrage at cultural and economic integration, is exactly why a lot of white, working-class Americans so resented Barack Obama by the end of his presidency, more than simple racism or political ideology.

In his rhetoric and policies, and even more so in his personal journey, Obama symbolized the blurring of lines, the mashing together of cultures and countries and economic fortunes into one big pile of haves and have-nots.

But if Obama personified internationalism, then Trump came to personify the inevitable response — “America First.” Trump didn’t create the anti-internationalist wave. He was enveloped and carried along by it, no less than Putin or the far-right nationalist parties in Europe.

But that doesn’t mean Trump isn’t also helping to embolden repressive nationalist rulers to tighten their grips — or that he’s helpless to stop it. Trump leaves the impression that his administration isn’t interested in checking the brazen power of dictators, mainly because it’s true.

By now, Putin, Xi and all the rest of them have seen enough to know that Trump isn’t like other American presidents — that he doesn’t really aspire to safeguard the world or champion ideals of liberty. Not only can you seize and abuse power with impunity, but you can even threaten to obliterate Guam or Florida without much fear of conflict, as long as you’re only really upsetting the media commentators who worry about that kind of thing.

The real danger here isn’t that Trump will decide that he too wants to suspend free speech or become president for life, as he joked last week. The flashing neon danger sign is that at some point — bank on it — one of these nuclear-armed strongmen is going to overshoot and do something we can’t actually afford to ignore. Someone is going to mistake our temporary self-absorption for indifference to our own national interest.

And in a world of tweets and bots, the kind of confrontation that used to move in slow motion — in the form of naval embargoes or Security Council resolutions — might get out of control very quickly.

“No one has time to back off and reflect now,” Gaddis told me. “It seems to me the potential for misinterpretation or misunderstanding is greater than it was in the past.”

Which is why the sooner Trump starts standing up to nationalist dictators and letting them know where the line is, the safer we’ll all be. As Franklin Roosevelt or John Kennedy or George W. Bush could testify, presidents don’t get to decide when it’s time to confront aggression.

History does, and it hasn’t ended yet.

‘Act of War’: British Lawmakers Fume Over Russian Spy Poisoning

Daily Beast

‘BRAZEN AND RECKLESS’

‘Act of War’: British Lawmakers Fume Over Russian Spy Poisoning

British politicians publicly point the finger toward Russia as Sergei Skripal and his daughter remain critically ill.

Jamie Ross        March 8, 2018

British lawmakers have voiced their anger over the “brazen and reckless” attempted murder of a former spy using a deadly nerve agent, with one accusing Russia of having potentially committed an “act of war.”

Former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, remain in critical condition in the hospital after they were found unconscious on Sunday as a result of being exposed to an as-yet unspecified nerve agent. The police officer who first responded to the scene, who had been in intensive care, is now “stable and conscious” and has been named as Sergeant Nick Bailey.

Local newspaper the Salisbury Journal reported that police had cordoned off the graves of Skripal’s wife and son, appearing to confirm previous reports that their deaths are now part of the ongoing investigation by British counter-terrorism police. Liudmila Skirpal died of cancer in 2012, and Alexander Skripal died in St. Petersburg last year.

As speculation mounted that Russia was responsible for the attack, the British government’s Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, said: “The use of nerve agent on UK soil is a brazen and reckless act. This was attempted murder in the most cruel and public way.”

But she added: “If we are to be rigorous in this investigation we must avoid speculation and allow the police to carry on their investigation. The investigation now involves hundreds of officers following every possible lead to find those responsible.

“We are committed to doing all we can to bring the perpetrators to justice, whoever they are and wherever they may be. As the Foreign Secretary [Boris Johnson] made clear, we will respond in a robust and appropriate manner once we ascertain who was responsible.”

Both Rudd and Prime Minister Theresa May refused to be drawn into questions over Russian involvement on Thursday. In a session in the British Parliament, Rudd repeatedly swatted away questions from lawmakers, both from her own party and the opposition, about what the government’s retaliatory measures would be if Russia was implicated.

Conservative MP Sir Edward Leigh told Rudd: “The circumstantial evidence against Russia is very strong. Who else would have the motive and the means? … Those of us who seek to understand Russia know that the only way to preserve peace is through strength If Russia is behind this, this is a brazen act of war, of humiliating our country.”

Labour MP Ben Bradshaw said: “[We] have warned for several years about the growing threat of the terrorist Russian state under President Putin whether it’s money laundering in the City of London, targeted murders… and the interference in our political and democratic system.”

Rudd insisted that the government had “not been asleep at the switch as to where our international enemies are,” saying Britain has been vocal over its opposition to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Syria. She said the government would “go further if we needed to do so.”

Prime Minister Theresa May said: “We will do what is appropriate, we will do what is right, if it is proved to be the case that this is state-sponsored.”

Russia has continued to vociferously deny any involvement in the attempted murder after the Russian Foreign Ministry rejected the “groundless” speculation on Wednesday. The unusually outspoken Twitter account of the Russian Embassy in London spent Thursday correcting reports that called Skripal a Russian spy, insisting he was a British one who worked for MI6.

The account also tweeted: “When Boris Berezovsky and Alexander Perepilichny died in Britain, there was a lot of speculation in the media, then all the conclusions were classified, and no data provided to Russia. Same happening now, with MI6 agent Sergei Skripal poisoning.” 

Although British police officially declared Perepilichny and Berezovsky’s deaths non-suspicious, a BuzzFeed News investigation from last year claimed that the British government suppressed evidence that Russia was responsible for both deaths and seven others.

The Russian Embassy account also complained of “Russophobia” from a British lawmaker who had pointed the finger towards Russia.

Counterterrorism police continued their investigation on Thursday with a fingertip search of Skripal’s home as hundreds of analysts and detectives worked to reconstruct his movements before he was found collapsed with his daughter on a bench outside a shopping center.

A source on the investigation told the BBC the nerve agent used was likely to be rarer than the sarin gas which is thought to have been used in Syria or the VX substance used to kill Kim Jong Un’s half brother last year.

When Rudd was asked outright if she believed the poisoning was a Russian assassination attempt, she said: “I’m determined to wait before any attribution [is made] until we have the facts. I’m completely confident that the police will be able to get that.”

Police again appealed to potential eyewitnesses to get in touch.

The Trump doomsayers might turn out to be right

Yahoo Finance

The Trump doomsayers might turn out to be right

Rick Newman     March 8, 2018     

In this photo illustration Levi’s 501 blue jeans by U.S. clothing manufacturer Levi Strauss are seen on March 8, 2018 in Berlin, Germany. U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to sign into law tariffs on imported steel and aluminum today and the European Commission has vowed to retaliate with tariffs on Levi’s jeans, Kentucky bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

During the 2016 election season, many analysts and prognosticators (including me) predicted the economy would tank if voters elected Donald Trump president. They turned out to be wrong.

Or were they just premature?

Developments over the next several months will provide some important clues. During his first year in office, Trump presided over a strengthening economy and booming stock market, due in part to the sharp cuts in business taxes Trump promised—then delivered. Employers added 2.1 million jobs during Trump’s first 12 months in office. The S&P 500 stock index rose 25%.

But stocks are now wobbling, and economists are warning of new dangers to the economy—thanks largely to Trump. Among the campaign promises Trump has yet to fulfill are new tariffs on imported goods, which, to Trump’s mind, are necessary to revive the U.S. manufacturing sector. So Trump now to plans to impose tariffs of 25% on all imported steel and 10% on all imported aluminum.

It’s hard to find an economist who thinks this is a good idea. The real question is how bad, and how dangerous, Trump’s tariffs might be. Nations affected by the tariffs are almost certain to retaliate with tariffs of their own on American exports. If that’s where it ends—trading partners doing nominal damage to each other’s economies, for purely political reasons—the economy will adapt. But if broader trade wars break out, with whole new classes of tariffs on a wide range of products, markets seem likely to heave, and business likely to slow or halt investment until it all sorts itself out.

Still unfulfilled campaign promises

Trump seems unconcerned, for now. But it’s worth pointing out that the stock market is flat for the year, which is pretty unusual given that the tax cuts are expected to generate record corporate profits. Markets are adjusting to the possibility of slightly higher inflation, and most forecasters still think stocks will end handsomely higher in 2018. But that confidence dims with every tweet and utterance from the White House indicating Trump’s fondness for tariffs and his belief that “trade wars are good.”

Many forecasters—including Moody’s Analytics, Oxford Economics, Citibank and Macroeconomic Advisers—predicted the economy would quake, and stocks fall, if Trump won. But those analyses were based on Trump doing what he said he was going to do, which Trump hasn’t, so far. As a reminder, while campaigning, Trump said he’d imposed tariffs of 45% on all imports from China and 35% on imports from Mexico. Trump hasn’t done either of those things, so far, but he’s now testing the waters on tariffs for the first time, with his proposed steel and aluminum duties. Trump also said he’d revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement, or withdraw from it completely (work in progress, outcome unknown). And he vowed to kick 11 million undocumented immigrants out of the country and reduce the number of legal immigrants (also works in progress).

When economists tried to estimate how those policies, if enacted, would affect the economy, the outlook was gloomy. Moody’s Analytics found that the economy would enter a recession starting in 2019 and lose 2.8 million jobs that year alone. Oxford Economics predicted Trump’s plan would cost the economy 4 million jobs and slash $1 trillion in economic output. Citibank said a Trump victory would induce a global recession.

None of that carnage has occurred. But the main reason it hasn’t is that Trump has only done things that stimulate the economy, so far. He hasn’t done things he called for while campaigning that are likely to depress the economy—until now.

The nonprofit group Trade Partnership analyzed Trump’s metal tariffs and found they’d generate 33,000 new jobs in steel and aluminum, but kill 179,000 jobs in other industries, because of the higher prices manufacturers buying those metals would have to pay. So a net loss of 146,000 jobs, just from two tariffs. That doesn’t include any ramifications of retaliatory tariffs by trading partners.

Does Trump want to institute two tariffs just to check off a campaign promise? Just to keep faith with deplorables who expect him to sucker-punch the globalists? Maybe. It’s possible Trump will get his tariffs, downplay the damage when partners retaliate, declare victory and call it a day. Trump could also impose the tariffs but then announce exemptions for a variety of trading partners, diluting the damage. If there isn’t much bite to accompany the bark, markets will quiver but probably recover, and 2018 might end nicely.

But Trump might also feel emboldened, and follow his steel and aluminum tariffs with a major rewrite of NAFTA, or even a withdrawal. Then we’d be getting closer to the doomsday scenarios Trump critics were painting during the later days of the 2016 election. Trump seems to think he can dismantle trading regimes and put them back together on more favorable terms. But even if that’s possible, there will almost certainly be a painful interim period when markets, allergic to unpredictability, price in the worst. If Trump gets his trade wars, he might end up making his critics look pretty smart.

Read more:

What Trump is missing on jobs

Why Trump’s tariffs are a “complete sham”

Trump is picking winners and losers

The real reason the NRA wins

Government debt is exploding. Here’s the danger

Trump’s stock-market mistake

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.

Trump’s Deranged Managerial Theories Are Destroying His Presidency

Vanity Fair – Politics

Trump’s Deranged Managerial Theories Are Destroying His Presidency

Tina Nguyen, Vanity Fair            March 7, 2018

No, it’s not normal.

At the outset of Donald Trump’s administration, various theories arose as to why the White House could not pivot out of a state of permanent chaos. And while it is true that many of the intra-office clashes seemed inseparable from the fact that a hodgepodge of political neophytes with caustic personalities were now attempting to form coherent policy, it also became increasingly apparent that the problem stemmed from the boss, himself, whose Thunderdome-inspired approach to management has fueled the highest West Wing burn-rate in modern history. Now, Trump’s organizational dysfunction, which crescendoed over the last month, appears to be reaching an apex—or, at least, a new plateau of zaniness.

On Tuesday, CNN reported that Trump is covertly supporting Anthony Scaramucci’s regular tirades against Chief of Staff John Kelly, during which he recently called Kelly such charming names as “General Jackass” and blamed him for staffers’ low morale. Trump has reportedly “emboldened” the Mooch to continue the attacks, which he apparently follows on cable TV. At the same time, Trump dismissed the suggestion that the White House is eating itself alive at his direction, describing the rapid turnover as evidence of “tremendous energy” and “tremendous spirit.” “It is a great place to be working. Many, many people want every single job,” he told reporters Tuesday. “Believe me, everybody wants to work in the White House. They all want a piece of that Oval Office, they all want a piece of the West Wing.”

During the White House press briefing Wednesday, Sarah Huckabee Sanders also defended the turnover as “not abnormal.” When a reporter pushed back—“If this is not the definition of chaotic, how would you describe what’s happening in these recent weeks?”—Sanders pointed to the economy, “jobs,” military successes against ISIS, and “the remaking of the judiciary,” which she called historic. “Sounds like a very functioning place of business to me.”

Other people who have worked in the West Wing seem to feel otherwise. Less than a week ago, both Josh Raffel and Hope Hicks, a senior communications official and the communications director, respectively, announced their resignations, citing a desire to return to their families. Earlier that month, Reed Cordish, an assistant, announced that he would leave to return to his family’s real-estate business, and staff secretary Rob Porter, stepped down in the face of allegations that he had abused his ex-wives (Porter has denied the claims). And, less than two hours after Trump bragged about the size of his applicant pool, Gary Cohn, his beleaguered national economic adviser, announced that he, too, would depart “in the coming weeks.”

That list doesn’t include the 34 percent of Trump staffers who were either fired, resigned, or reassigned in 2017. But it does highlight the very real problem Trump continues to have in hiring and keeping talent, a task made more difficult by the delight he takes in starting fires. “I like conflict. I like having two people with two points of view,” Trump said during the Tuesday presser. “I like watching it, I like seeing it.” His lust for conflict, however, has taken a toll on the White House, where the attrition rate is so bad that in a recent reshuffle, senior administration official Johnny DeStefano was asked to take charge of the Office of Public Liaison, the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, and the duties of the recently departed deputy chief of staff—all while retaining his original job as the head of the Office of Presidential Personnel, overseeing (irony of ironies) the White House hiring process.

Trump, for his part, seems content to gloss over the sky-high burn rate. “The new Fake News narrative is that there is CHAOS in the White House. Wrong!” he tweeted Tuesday morning. “People will always come & go, and I want strong dialogue before making a final decision. I still have some people that I want to change (always seeking perfection). There is no Chaos, only great Energy!” If that “energy” continues to repel talent, however, the consequences could be dire. “With Gary gone, I just think, from a policy perspective, it means disaster,” one White House official told Politico. “The number of bad ideas that have come though this White house that were thankfully killed dead—there are too many to count.”

A Homeless Man’s Truck Is His Home, Judge Rules In Seattle

NPR

A Homeless Man’s Truck Is His Home, Judge Rules In Seattle

By Laurel Wamsley      March 6, 2018

A King County, Wash., Superior Court judge ruled Friday that the truck a Seattle man was living in is his home, and thus can’t be impounded. Here, a man hauls garbage at a temporary parking area for people living in their vehicles in Seattle in 2016. Elaine Thompson/AP

In a case that may have a significant implications for Seattle’s fast-growing homeless population, a King County Superior Court judge ruled on Friday that the pickup truck a man was living in was his home.

The case concerns a 57-year-old man named Steven Long, whose pickup was impounded because it was improperly parked and he didn’t move it every 72 hours. Long was living in the truck while working as a janitor at CenturyLink Field, and he said the vehicle wasn’t running well enough to move it.

Because of Washington’s frontier-era homestead law, the judge’s ruling means the city can’t impound the truck. The judge also ordered the city to refund the fees Long was levied for the towing and impoundment, saying Seattle violated constitutional protections against excessive fines.

The city argued that impounding Long’s truck was not a “forced sale” and that the courts “have consistently held that there is no constitutional right to housing,” KIRO reports. The city is considering whether to appeal.

NATIONAL

Homeless Population Rises, Driven By West Coast Affordable-Housing Crisis

The ruling follows a decision by a judge in Clark County who found that police officers in Vancouver, Wash., had violated a homeless man’s right against unreasonable search and seizure when they lifted the tarp he was sleeping under, found a bag of meth, and arrested him.

The Clark County prosecutor’s office was critical of that ruling.

“Are we asking our officers to go get warrants now for every person in a park who throws a blanket over themselves?” said Clark County senior deputy prosecuting attorney Rachael Probstfeld, The Stranger reports. “Like a cloak of invisibility? Like ‘Oh this is my dwelling now’?”

But advocates for the homeless say poor people deserve the same protections as those living in traditional housing.

“If this person had rented wooden walls, we wouldn’t have this debate,” Tristia Bauman, senior attorney at the National Law Center on Homelessness & Poverty, told the Stranger. “It would be unquestionable that the police overstepped their bounds. But because this person is poor, then there becomes a debate about whether this person even had a home and has any of the fundamental guarantees afforded to the rest of us.”

HERE & NOW COMPASS

Shelters Reach Capacity In Cold Weather As Homeless Population Rises

The King County decision draws attention to a population that often goes unnoticed: people who live in their vehicles.

one-night count in King County in January 2017 found that 2,314 people were living in vans, cars or RVs — 20 percent of county’s homeless population. Along with people who live on the street, in tents, or in abandoned buildings, they comprise the 47 percent of the city’s homeless population who are considered “unsheltered.”

Many West Coast cities are struggling with growing numbers of people experiencing homelessness as housing costs have spiked. The Associated Press reports that Washington’s population of chronically homeless people has risen 67 percent since 2007, while nationally the rate has declined 27 percent.

SHOTS – HEALTH NEWS

For Some Seniors Without Housing, A Parking Lot Is Home

Some cities have established places for people living in their cars to park. Santa Barbara, Calif., for example, has a Safe Parking program with designated spots where they can park overnight, often in church parking lots. The program also provides services and outreach to the people living there – including necessities like bathrooms.

Los Angeles has an estimated 8,000 people living in vehicles, according to the Los Angeles Times. But as KPCC has reported, LA has been slow to get its own safe-parking program off the ground.

And Seattle now has just one vehicle safe zone, The Seattle Times reports, with plans to shut it down by the end of April. The newspaper says Seattle’s parking enforcement officials work with a local homelessness organization to determine who is living in their vehicles so they don’t face excessive fines.

Ann LoGerfo, one of the attorneys who worked on Long’s case, told The Stranger she would like the Seattle decision to impact other cities, too.

“We’re hoping the city and other cities across the state will look at this and rethink how they’re treating people who have no other choice but to live in a vehicle,” she said.

 Why is a top aide to the EPA chief ‘moonlighting for private clients’?

MSNBC

The Rachel Maddow Show – The Maddow Blog

 Why is a top aide to the EPA chief ‘moonlighting for private clients’?

 By Steve Benen       March 6, 2018

The headquarters of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stands in Washington, D.C. Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty

Since Donald Trump put Scott Pruitt in charge of the EPA, the agency has faced one controversy after another, but today’s is just … bizarre.

Last year, Pruitt hired a Republican political consultant named John Konkus to serve as the EPA’s deputy associate administrator for public affairs. It’s not, however, just a public-relations job. The Washington Post  reported in September that Konkus, despite his lack of environmental policy experience, is in charge of “vetting the hundreds of millions of dollars in grants the EPA distributes annually.”

We learned at the time that Konkus “reviews every award the agency gives out, along with every grant solicitation before it is issued.” As part of his reviews, he looks out for “the double C-word” – climate change – and according to the Post, he’s repeatedly “instructed grant officers to eliminate references to the subject in solicitations.”

It’s against this backdrop that the Associated Press reports that the EPA official is also moonlighting for unnamed private-sector clients.

A key aide to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt has been granted permission to make extra money moonlighting for private clients whose identities are being kept secret.

A letter approving outside employment contracts for John Konkus – signed by an EPA ethics lawyer in August – was released Monday by Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

The ethics official noted that Konkus’ outside contracts presented a “financial conflict of interest” and barred him from participating in matters at EPA that would have a “direct and predictable” financial benefit for his clients.

Apparently, Konkus, a former Trump campaign aide who now receives a $145,000 annual salary at the EPA, received permission to work for at least two unnamed clients, with the expectation that this list will grow.

What’s more, according to the AP, he’s not the only one.

Along with the information about Konkus’ side jobs, the House Democrats also got a copy of letter approving similar outside employment for Patrick Davis, another Trump political appointee working as a senior adviser for public engagement in the EPA’s regional office in Denver.

Like Konkus, Davis is a Republican political consultant who led Trump’s presidential campaign in Colorado. According to a 2015 report by ProPublica, Davis was accused two years earlier of defrauding a conservative super PAC called Vote2ReduceDebt, which was funded by an elderly oil tycoon. The group collapsed after Davis allegedly paid nearly $3 million of the PAC’s funds to organizations run by him or his close associates, according to the news report. […]

An EPA ethics lawyer in February 2017 approved of Davis receiving outside compensation for work as sales director for a company called Telephone Town Hall Meeting, which provides services such as robocalls to political campaigns and advocacy groups. The agency redacted how much Davis is to be paid for the agreement, but his outside compensation would also be capped at less than $28,000.

I don’t know how long it’ll take to repair the Environmental Protection Agency, but I have a hunch it’s going to take a while.

Update: Norm Eisen, the chief ethics lawyer in Obama’s White House, described these EPA waivers as “insane,” adding, “In the Obama White House, I even made people quit uncompensated non-profit outside positions because of conflicts risks. This is for-profit work that could conflict with official duties.”

Is Mueller Closing in on Trump?

Newsweek

Is Mueller Closing in on Trump? Incidents Involving President’s Lawyer and Russia Under Scrutiny, Report Says

Greg Price, Newsweek    March 6, 2018 

Two particular events involving President Donald Trump’s longtime personal attorney Michael Cohen have reportedly become areas of interest in the special counsel investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

Robert Mueller’s team has asked for documents and spoken with witnesses specifically about Cohen, involving the Trump Organization’s plan to build a new property in Moscow during the president’s campaign and a peace plan for Ukraine that favored Russian interests, according to The Washington Post’s report Tuesday. The report cited people familiar with the investigations subpoenas and interviews with witnesses.

Cohen’s work on those two matters has “drawn Mueller’s attention,” the report stated. Cohen is said to have handed Trump a letter of intent from a Russian developer in October 2015 to build a new tower in Russia’s capital city and then later reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s right-hand man to try and move the project along. At that point, Trump had already been on the campaign trail for several months.

Michael Cohen, a personal attorney for President Trump, departs from a House Intelligence Committee on Capitol Hill, October 24, 2017 in Washington, DC. Getty Images/Mark Wilson

Nine days before his inauguration, and with allegations of Russian collusion swirling, Trump vehemently denied having any business ties to Russia whatsoever:

“Russia has never tried to use leverage over me. I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA – NO DEALS, NO LOANS, NO NOTHING!” Trump tweeted January 11 of last year.

As well as the Trump Tower negotiations, Cohen is reported to have received the Ukraine peace proposal plan from a Ukrainian lawmaker a week after Trump took office. Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 sparked sanctions from the United States and European Union members that Putin’s regime has tried to lift or circumvent.

“Unsourced innuendo like this succeeds only because the leakers know the Special Counsel will not respond to set the record straight,” Cohen’s attorney, Stephen Ryan, told The Post in a statement.

Cohen, who has worked for Trump for more than two decades, previously spoke to both the House and Senate Intelligence Committees in October. Both committees reportedly asked about the Trump Tower Moscow deal that never was.

More from Newsweek

Mueller Could Use Trump Lawyer Cohen to ‘Take Down’ President, Former Campaign Aide Says

Can a Lawyer (Michael Cohen) Pay a Witness (Stormy Daniels) Hush Money to Silence Her?

Trump Lawyer Michael Cohen Says The ‘Haters’ Are Trolling Him For Supporting the President

This evangelical Christian is also a world-renowned climate scientist

New York Post

This evangelical Christian is also a world-renowned climate scientist

By Reuters       March 6, 2018 

Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe. AFP/Getty Images

EDMONTON, Canada – Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist and evangelical Christian, says she gets slammed every day on social media for her contributions to establishing that climate change is human-made.

But on Monday, she was welcomed with applause at a United Nations-backed climate summit in the capital of Canada’s western province of Alberta, where polls show that climate skepticism rates are among the highest in the country.

Hayhoe, a professor at Texas Tech University, has emerged in recent years as a leading voice sharing the science of climate change to skeptics — many of whom are fellow evangelical churchgoers.

A 2015 survey from the Washington DC-based Pew Research Center found that just one-quarter of white evangelicals in the United States believe that climate change is caused by humans.

A separate Pew poll from 2016 showed that white evangelicals voted overwhelmingly to elect United States President Donald Trump, who has pulled his country out of the Paris agreement, a global pact to curb climate change.

But Hayhoe said it is that same Christianity that fuels her dedication to climate science.

“I study climate change because I think it’s the greatest humanitarian crisis of our times,” she said.

“It exacerbates poverty and hunger and disease and civil conflicts and refugee crises,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Traits that have made Hayhoe uniquely qualified to speak authoritatively in such conservative circles are best summed up by two accolades she has received.

For her work in explaining climate change, Hayhoe has made TIME magazine’s list of most influential people and she was named one of the 50 Women to Watch by the evangelical magazine Christianity Today.

Her calling came “completely serendipitously.”

Six months into her marriage, her husband, a linguistics professor, told her about his disbelief in global warming.

“You have somebody you respect and you also love and you also want to stay married. I said well, ‘Let’s talk about it.’”

It took two years of discussion to agree that heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions attributable to human activity are driving today’s climate change.

The marital episode and her subsequent engagement with faith groups have firmed up her views that the traditional conservative tenet of small government – not science – usually explains why some resist the issue.

“(It’s) not because they really have a problem with the science,” she said. “It’s because they have a problem with the perceived solutions.”

“Taxes, government legislation, loss of personal liberty … that’s the real problem people have.”

Hayhoe did not field any questions from climate change skeptics during her talk at the summit in Edmonton. And her message struck particularly close to home in a province that is Canada’s main oil producer.

“The world energy system is undergoing an energy revolution … from old dirty energies that we have been using for hundreds of years to clean, endless sources of energy like wind,” she said, in an interview after her speech.

“Oil and gas companies, they look down the road and they understand that the world is changing.”

Under the Paris agreement, nearly 200 countries agreed to curb planet-warming emissions enough to keep the rise in global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, ideally to 1.5 degrees.

But without unprecedented action temperatures could rise above 1.5 degrees, according to a draft report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change seen by Reuters earlier this year.

Senate inches closer to passing bill to ease bank safeguards

Associated Press

Senate inches closer to passing bill to ease bank safeguards

Kevin Freking and Marcy Gordon, Associated Press  March 6, 2018

Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., flanked by Sen. John Boozman, R-Ark., left, and Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., arrive with other lawmakers for a procedural vote as the Senate moves to pass legislation that would roll back some of the safeguards Congress put into place after a financial crisis rocked the nation’s economy ten years ago at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, March 6, 2018. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate advanced legislation Tuesday to roll back some of the safeguards Congress put in place to prevent a repeat of the financial crisis. Enough Democrats supported a procedural vote on the bipartisan bill to show it has a good chance of passage in the coming days.

The move to alter some key aspects of the Dodd-Frank law comes ten years after the financial crisis rocked the nation’s economy. The bill has overwhelming Republican support and enough Democratic backing that it’s expected to gain the 60 votes necessary to clear the Senate. That was reflected in the 67-32 vote Tuesday, with 16 Democrats and one independent voting to move ahead with consideration of the bill.

Several Democratic lawmakers facing tough re-election races this year have broken ranks with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., said he was proud to support Dodd-Frank eight years ago, and for the most part, the legislation was successful, but the bill also had unintended consequences, which he said included consolidation in the banking industry and a decline in small business lending. He said local banks in Montana have suffered from regulations specifically designed to rein in risky behavior on Wall Street.

“As a result of complying with these regulations, many of our community bankers are hanging up their hats,” Tester said.

Nonpartisan congressional analysts say the legislation would slightly increase the probability of a big bank failure — prompting a possible taxpayer bailout — or another financial meltdown. The probability of those events is deemed to be small under current law. The new assessment by the Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill would increase federal deficits by $671 million between 2018 and 2027 if it became law.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said the drumbeat for derailing Dodd-Frank has been constant. He said Wall Street banks always want “a new exception, or a new, weaker standard, or a new tax break.”

“We know what happens next. It is hubris to think we can gut the rules on these banks again, but avoid the next crisis,” said Brown, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee.

But the bill’s proponents insisted it would bring a needed boost to beleaguered banks outside Wall Street that didn’t engage in the reckless practices that fueled the financial crisis.

“Dodd-Frank’s enormous regulatory burden has been inefficient and unhelpful for financial institutions of all sizes, but it has hit Main Street lenders especially hard,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said.

The legislation would increase the threshold at which banks are subject to stricter capital and planning requirements. Lawmakers are intent on easing those rules for midsize and large regional banks, asserting that would boost lending and the economy.

Banks have long complained about the cost of complying with the many requirements of Dodd-Frank. Under the Senate bill, some of the nation’s biggest banks would no longer have to undergo an annual stress test conducted by the Federal Reserve. The test assesses whether a bank has enough capital to survive an economic shock and continue lending. Dozens of banks would also be exempted from making plans called “living wills” that spell out how the bank will sell off assets or be liquidated in a way that won’t create chaos in the financial system.

The Senate legislation increases from $50 billion to $250 billion the threshold at which banks are considered critical to the system. The change would ease regulations on more than two dozen financial companies, including BB&T Corp., Sun Trust Banks Inc. and American Express.

Opponents of the bill argue that the same banks getting regulatory easing through the Senate bill also got about $50 billion in taxpayer-funded bailouts during the financial crisis. Warren said banks got their wish-list in the bill, but consumers got next to nothing.

“This bill was written by big banks to help big banks,” said Warren, who is hoping to offer several amendments to the bill.

The Senate bill emerged from lengthy negotiations between Sen. Mike Crapo, the Republican chairman of the banking committee, and several Democratic members on the committee. Crapo said the Federal Reserve will have the authority to tailor tougher capital and liquidity requirements for individual banks when it believes it’s necessary. For the others, compliance costs should drop.

The bill has 13 Republican and 13 Democratic or independent co-sponsors, a rare level of bipartisanship for substantive legislation in the current Congress. By contrast, the House effort to roll back Dodd-Frank didn’t generate a single Democratic vote in support.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said the financial sector spent more than $200 million alone on lobbying last year and has donated billions to election campaigns since the 1990s.

“That is why Congress will be spending day after day trying to make life easier for these large financial institutions while at the same time ignoring the needs of working families,” Sanders said.