New gas pipeline capacity sharply exceeds consumption, report says

StateImpact – Pennsylvania

Energy. Environment. Economy.   A reporting project of NPR member stations. About StateImpact Pennsylvania:

StateImpact Pennsylvania is a collaboration between WITF, WHYY, WESA and the Allegheny Front. Reporters Marie Cusick, Susan Phillips and Reid Frazier cover the commonwealth’s energy economy. Read their reports on this site, and hear them on public radio stations across Pennsylvania. This collaborative project is funded, in part, through grants from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, Heinz Endowments and William Penn Foundation.

New gas pipeline capacity sharply exceeds consumption, report says

By John Hurdle        November 13, 2017

https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/files/2016/03/pipeline-construction-620x413.jpg Nati Harnik / AP Photo. Workers unload pipes at a staging area in Worthing, S.D., for the 1,130-mile Dakota Access Pipeline. A new report says the nation’s new natural gas pipeline capacity resulting from a building boom is far more than is needed.

Charges that the U.S. pipeline industry is building far more natural gas pipelines than it needs are being fueled by a new report showing that the capacity of lines approved by federal regulators over the last two decades was more than twice the amount of gas actually consumed daily in 2016.

The report by the independent Analysis Group for the Natural Resources Defense Council said the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved more than 180 billion cubic feet a day (bcf/d) of new pipeline capacity since 1999, when it began its current policy on approving interstate pipelines. The new capacity compares with the average daily consumption of only 75.11 bcf/d last year, the report said.

Even during the Polar Vortex of 2013/14 when exceptionally cold temperatures in the Northeast boosted the need for heating fuel, consumption of 137 bcf/d was still significantly lower than the combined capacity additions, the report said, citing data from the federal Energy Information Administration. In January 2017, national consumption was 93.1 bcf/d, even further below the capacity of the additional pipeline network, the report said. The data on additions to pipeline capacity are from FERC.

Topics:    Pipelines: The new battleground over fracking

https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/files/2015/11/mechanicsburg-and-more-037.jpg

NRDC, in the report issued Nov. 6, said the overcapacity is being driven by the profits that can be earned by pipeline builders; by FERC’s willingness to accept builders’ assurances that there is a need for the additional gas, and by the regulator’s existing application policy that does not recognize big changes in the natural gas market since the policy began.

“The report underscores very real concerns that we are overbuilding the natural gas pipeline system,” said Montina Cole, an attorney with NRDC’s ‘Sustainable FERC’ project.

Cole told StateImpact that an increasing number of pipeline builders are justifying their projects with so-called affiliate agreements in which buyers of the gas are commercially linked with the carrier. When the buyer is an electric utility, that means ratepayers end up paying the cost of the pipeline, she said.

“The pipeline developer is really on both sides of the transaction,” Cole said. “They are both selling the capacity, and the buyers are affiliates, which are increasingly electricity companies that have captive ratepayers.”

She argued that FERC, which approves virtually all pipeline applications that come before it, is too ready accept builders’ assurances that there is a need for a pipeline.

“Pipeline companies tell FERC: ‘We can demonstrate the need because we have contracts subscribing the capacity of the pipeline.’ FERC places undue reliance on that in deciding whether a pipeline is needed,” she said.

https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/files/2017/07/03_FERCOfficeBuilding-620x348.jpgIn a recent 2-1 ruling, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia found the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission failed properly quantify greenhouse gas emissions linked to a pipeline expansion project in the southeastern U.S.     Marie Cusick / StateImpact Pennsylvania

Despite the high cost of building new pipelines and the existence of spare capacity in existing lines, builders are attracted to new projects because they are more profitable, Cole argued.

“There’s a lot more money to be made if you build that new pipeline, and you have a guaranteed recovery of your costs,” she said. “It’s a very lucrative business.”

The Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, which represents pipeline builders, rejected the calls for a reform to FERC’s pipeline policy, saying it has served consumers by responding quickly to market need.

“The responsiveness of FERC’s certificate process has enabled U.S. consumers and the economy to benefit very quickly from the shale revolution,” said INGAA spokesman Cathy Landry. “This would not have occurred had FERC been bound by a policy requiring extensive proceedings to establish an administrative determination of the needs of the market.”

Landry said the idea of FERC incorporating regional planning into its application process, as proposed NRDC, would be at odds from the regulator’s “pro-competition” policies that rely on the “real world commitments” of pipeline companies to demonstrate market demand.

Still, the issue of over-capacity in the pipeline industry has also been raised by the U.S. Department of Energy, which said in 2015 it expects the rate of pipeline additions to slow in future as gas is increasingly carried in pipelines that have been built over the last decade in response to the shale boom.

“Higher utilization of existing interstate natural gas pipeline infrastructure will reduce the need for new pipelines,” the DOE said in a report.

Meanwhile, the NRDC said FERC’s policy on evaluating pipeline applications does not take into account significant market changes since the policy took effect, including a huge increase in shale gas production, public concerns on whether fracking taints drinking water, and how climate is affected by the shale gas boom.

“The time is ripe for FERC to undertake a structured and collaborative review of its pipeline certification guidance and policy,” said the report’s author, Susan Tierney, a former assistant secretary for policy at the DOE, in a statement.

FERC would not say whether it is looking at the NRDC report, how it responds to charges that it is approving too much pipeline capacity, or whether it is considering a review of its 1999 policy. “We don’t comment on outside reports,” said spokeswoman Celeste Miller.

But Commissioner Cheryl LaFleur indicated her own concerns with FERC’s approval process when she dissented in October from the commission’s approval of the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley Pipelines in West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina, saying both projects would have significant environmental effects.

LaFleur, the only Democrat among the three current commissioners, said the FERC process would benefit from a fuller consideration of how to balance pipelines’ environmental effects, including downstream impacts, with their need.

John Quigley, former secretary of Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection, said that big changes to the supply of and demand for natural gas since the FERC policy was implemented would justify a fresh look at whether it is working as it should.

“When you look at the impact that this build-out clearly is having in states like Pennsylvania, the environmental impacts, the potential impacts in terms of public health, risks to public safety, climate risks, all of that needs to be considered,” he said. “It is not at all unreasonable to ask that they be considered anew given the rapid change and the scale of the challenge.”

On the issue of overcapacity, Quigley said that national figures may obscure regional variations in states like Pennsylvania where there are not yet enough pipelines to bring huge quantities of Marcellus gas to market.

“Generally speaking, there’s a lot of evidence to suggest overcapacity but when you look at regional and sub-regional places, especially in Pennsylvania, there’s a pretty strong argument on the other side that given the immense volume of gas that is being produced, it still can’t get delivered to the most lucrative markets,” said Quigley, who is now director of the Center for Environment, Energy and Economy at Harrisburg University of Science and Technology.

In Pennsylvania and New Jersey, opponents of the PennEast Pipeline project argue there’s no need for the line that would carry natural gas some 120 miles from the Marcellus Shale of Luzerne County, Pa. to Mercer County, NJ.

Their argument was backed up in 2016 by the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel, a public advocate for utility ratepayers, which said the PennEast Pipeline Co. had failed to demonstrate the need for the gas that would be carried by the line, and seemed to be motivated “more by the search for higher returns on investment than any actual deficiency in pipeline supply or pipeline capacity to transport it.”

In a response to claims that the pipeline was not needed, PennEast released a consultant’s report in 2015 saying that energy consumers in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania could have saved $890 million in additional energy costs if the pipeline had been operational in the cold winter of 2013/14.

PennEast is still waiting for FERC to issue a Certificate of Public Convenience which would allow it to begin eminent domain proceedings against landowners who have refused its offers of compensation. The company previously said it expected the certificate to be issued in the summer of 2017, and now says it expects FERC to do so “shortly,” according to company spokeswoman Pat Kornick. She predicted the pipeline will be operational in the second half of 2018.

‘One of the most secretive, darkest states’: What is Kansas trying to hide?

McClatchy  D.C. Bureau

‘One of the most secretive, darkest states’: What is Kansas trying to hide?

 https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/31m98Es20TmCOWzLBOhEDw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/http://l.yimg.com/yp/offnetwork/f45de984d1fbfb6dca7262eac66a0f65

By Laura Bauer, Judy L. Thomas And Max Londberg, The Kansas City Star

November 13, 2017

The statement was simple. Factual.

A Kansas spokesperson was acknowledging that the state highway department didn’t have the money to rebuild a dangerous stretch of Interstate 70 that had been the scene of multiple wrecks and a grisly motorcycle fatality caught on video.

“KDOT has lost a lot of money over the last few years,” the spokesperson said. “There’s just no funding at this point.”

Simple, yes. But in Gov. Sam Brownback’s cash-strapped administration, those were fighting words. Days later, the spokesperson was fired.

“Your article was the nail in my coffin for being the face of KDOT,” the spokesperson said in an email to The Kansas City Star.

The terminated employee, who wishes to remain anonymous for fear of reprisal, had learned what it meant to cross the line — the one where the state of Kansas doesn’t discuss public business with Kansans.

Kansas runs one of the most secretive state governments in the nation, and its secrecy permeates nearly every aspect of service, The Star found in a months-long investigation.

From the governor’s office to state agencies, from police departments to business relationships to health care, on the floors of the House and Senate, a veil has descended over the years and through administrations on both sides of the political aisle.

Read more in this series: Why so secret, Kansas?

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/dq0g4f/picture184177746/alternates/FREE_768/1%20Secret%20Kan%20Child%20101617%20JAT%20(2)

Secrecy inside child welfare system can kill: ‘God help the children of Kansas’

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/j54oe9/picture184176586/alternates/FREE_768/A1%20Gut%20and%20GO

Here’s how Kansas lawmakers keep you from finding out what they’re doing —until it’s too late

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/iaegr9/picture184174726/alternates/LANDSCAPE_1140/Kansas_capitol_money

Who benefits from tax breaks in Kansas? You’re not allowed to know

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/22hfpm/picture184172766/alternates/LANDSCAPE_1140/Secret%20Kan%20Police%20101317%20JA

When cops kill in Kansas, you probably won’t hear their names or see the video

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/6a2xd2/picture184167381/alternates/FREE_768/1%20Secret%20KanCare%20083017%20JAT%200%20(2)

Caregivers of disabled left in dark under Kansas’ private healthcare system

“My No. 1 question to anybody who opts in favor of nondisclosure is, ‘What are you trying to hide from us?’  ” said former Rep. John Rubin, a Johnson County Republican, calling Kansas “one of the most secretive, dark states in the country in many of these areas.”

What’s hidden are stories of regular Kansans who have suffered inside the silence.

In the course of its investigation, The Star found that:

▪ Children known to the state’s Department for Children and Families suffer horrific abuse, while the agency cloaks its involvement with their cases, even shredding notes after meetings where children’s deaths are discussed, according to a former high-ranking DCF official. One grieving father told The Star he was pressured to sign a “gag order” days after his son was killed that would prevent him from discussing DCF’s role in the case. Even lawmakers trying to fix the troubled system say they cannot trust information coming from agency officials. (Story coming Monday)

▪ In the past decade, more than 90 percent of the laws passed by the Kansas Legislature have come from anonymous authors. Kansans often had no way of knowing who was pushing which legislation and why, and the topics have included abortion, concealed weapons and school funding. Kansas is one of only a few states that allow the practice. (Story coming Tuesday)

▪ When Kansas police shoot and kill someone, law enforcement agencies often escape scrutiny because they are allowed to provide scant details to the public. The release of body-cam video has become common practice around the country after several high-profile, police-involved shootings. But in Kansas, a new state law is one of the most restrictive in the nation, allowing agencies to shelve footage that could shed more light on controversial cases. (Story coming Wednesday)

▪ Kansas became the first state to fully privatize Medicaid services in 2013, and now some caregivers for people with disabilities say they have been asked to sign off on blank treatment plans — without knowing what’s being provided. In some of those cases, caregivers later discovered their services had been dramatically cut. (Story coming Thursday)

The examples, when stitched together, form a quilt of secrecy that envelops much of state government.

“Damn,” said Bob Stephan, a Republican and four-time Kansas attorney general. “That causes me concern. It’s very disheartening. … It’s gone crazy.”

Secrecy from the top down

Many lawmakers who have attempted more openness in government say accountability has withered in the Brownback era.

Sen. Anthony Hensley, a Topeka Democrat, has spent 41 years in the Legislature, making him the longest-serving lawmaker in Kansas history. He has served under eight governors — half of them Republicans, half Democrats.

“We’ve had a real problem with this current administration,” Hensley said. “This is the least transparent administration I have seen. To be able to even get basic information about issues like foster care and the corrections department, it’s next to impossible when you make an inquiry.”

Rubin pushed for transparency — often in vain — during his time in Topeka from 2011 to 2016. He was one of the first two legislators to sign a pledge created last year by a group called Open Kansas.

The pledge asked lawmakers to increase government accountability and transparency. Only 23 of the state’s 165 legislators signed the pledge during the 2016 session. After last November’s election, that number increased by 14 but still represented just 22 percent of the Legislature.

It’s no wonder Kansas got a flunking grade in a 2015 study by the Center for Public Integrity that measured transparency and state accountability. Among its bad grades: F’s in public access to information, internal auditing and executive accountability.

Though the state’s obsession with secrecy goes back decades, Brownback’s seven years as governor have been marked by efforts to shield executive decisions from the public.

In 2012, the Shawnee County district attorney’s office concluded that private meetings Brownback held with lawmakers at the governor’s mansion technically violated the state’s open meetings act. Prosecutors determined the violations were a result of ignorance about the law and did not pursue penalties.

Two years later, the state’s budget director used a private email address to share details of Brownback’s budget proposal with a pair of lobbyists who had close ties to the governor. The director shared the information several weeks before lawmakers saw it.

In late 2014, Brownback appointed two additional members to the Saline County Commission but refused to release the names of the applicants. Two news organizations sued and the court eventually sided with Brownback. But five applicants came forward and identified themselves. The year before, Brownback had refused a request to identify applicants for a seat on the Kansas Court of Appeals, the state’s second-highest court.

And last year, as Brownback’s office weighed budget cuts in the wake of massive tax reductions and huge revenue shortfalls, he refused to release financial documents that had been public under previous governors.

Critics say the governor also leaves behind a legacy of state agencies that avoid disclosure as a matter of policy.

This ‘suicide curve’ is the site of numerous violent crashes

After a fatal motorcycle crash on a dangerous stretch of Interstate 70 in Kansas City, Kan., a Kansas Department of Transportation spokesperson told The Star a lack of funding had prevented a rebuild project. Days later, the spokesperson was fired. Video courtesy of Leo Eilts.

Monty Davis and Max Londberg The Kansas City Star

A current Kansas Department of Transportation employee, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, likened the central office in Topeka to the Pentagon.

“They (spokespeople) are told what they can and cannot say,” the employee said. “Their public relations people are just there for show.”

The spokesperson who was fired after talking about highway funding deficits was known within KDOT as a social media expert whose communication initiatives had built public respect for the agency, one former colleague said.

The employee “was really the best public affairs manager that KDOT had,” said Martin Miller, who retired in 2015 as the spokesman for the department’s south-central Kansas district. “I would see Facebook posts, tweets, emailed press releases at 1 or 2 o’clock in the morning. (The terminated employee) did a great service for the residents of Kansas.”

The Star sent questions to Brownback’s office, including one asking whether anyone from KDOT had been disciplined for talking about funding issues. His office responded with a lengthy comment about transparency but did not answer the question about KDOT.

“Governor Brownback’s administration has always been sensitive to the fact that government is a public institution and that public institutions function best in the sunshine,” wrote Rachel Whitten, the governor’s interim spokeswoman, in an email Thursday. “He makes it a priority to remain open with the people he serves by answering thousands of media requests for comment, hundreds of open records requests, and signing numerous bills that increase transparency in state government.

“Public officials are required to balance transparency with many other considerations in the process of governing, including the law, and the privacy of private individuals who interact with the government, among a myriad of other important factors.”

Many do not see it that way. The state, they say, seems hellbent on keeping information from the public.

“If you don’t have transparency in every aspect of the government, then you aren’t making it clear to people that the public’s business is being done in a forthright way,” said Doug Bonney, the legal director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Kansas. “It’s something about Kansas; I don’t know what it is exactly. But Kansas is overly worried about information becoming public.

“If it’s not the least transparent state in the Union, it’s close to it.”

An ingrained mindset of privacy

Rumors had been running through Tonganoxie for days: Tyson Foods was coming.

But residents didn’t know any details of the planned poultry plant. Not until the big announcement inside the Brunswick Ballroom in early September when state and county officials were on stage smiling and clapping.

By then, much of Tonganoxie was pissed.

This wasn’t just going to be a small plant. It would be a $320 million state-of-the art complex, slaughtering and packaging 1.25 million birds each week. Residents worried about the smell, contamination to the area and how their town and schools would handle a projected 1,600 employees.

City and county officials, along with Brownback, had been quietly working on a deal for months. A site was already picked. “Project Sunset,” it was called behind closed doors.

“This was a done deal. They said they were going to break ground in 90 days,” said Steve Skeet, whose parents own land across the road from where Tyson wanted to build. “They knew about this but didn’t tell anybody. Giving it a code name made it a dirty secret that they wanted to hide.”

Residents heckled and jeered as the plans were revealed, and Skeet’s mom cried.

In the end, the town’s uproar was heard loud and clear. Two weeks later, the Leavenworth County Commission reversed its support of the project and Tyson said it would explore other locations.

Project Sunset could have played out anywhere in Kansas, where privacy is as deeply rooted as the wheat fields covering the Sunflower State.

“In Kansas, I do think folks tend to be somewhat private people,” said Sen. Molly Baumgardner, a Louisburg Republican. “The majority of the state is rural and that small-town approach, that ‘Our business is our business and it’s not anyone’s business until we want to share it,’ tends to be the thought of the day.”

Both Democrats and Republicans have run opaque administrations, said Burdett Loomis, who worked for former Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

“Once you’ve got that lack of transparency, unless there’s something that rocks the boat, the people who benefit from it are perfectly happy to let it be,” said Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas. “Corporations, lobbyists, lawmakers, a lot of these people have no reason to change anything very much.”

The culture that stifles transparency has become ingrained, said Benet Magnuson, executive director of Kansas Appleseed, a nonprofit justice center serving vulnerable and excluded Kansans.

“There’s something about once that culture sets in,” Magnuson said. “It’s really difficult to move out of.”

Raised in Kansas, Magnuson went to Harvard and Harvard Law School before moving to Texas. There, he never encountered problems when requesting open records or information. Then he returned to Kansas.

“Moving back here, time after time, the first question that would be asked is, ‘Who are you and why are you asking for this?’ ” Magnuson said. “In Kansas, I’m hesitant to say 100 percent, but it was close to 100 percent of the time that’s what you get — ‘who are you and what are you going to do with this?’ ”

The Star asked more than a dozen counties how they were responding to a new law intended to open criminal affidavits.

When it contacted Kurtis Jacobs in Finney County in southwest Kansas, the District Court administrator said he would not provide the information without first knowing the angle of the story. Or, he said, The Star could file an open records request.

“Under the Kansas Open Records Act (KORA), I can take three days to respond and then as long as I need to to get the information,” Jacobs said. “We can do this the easy way or we can do this the hard way.”

Three months after receiving two requests from The Star regarding the deaths of an infant and a 10-year-old boy, the Department for Children and Families said it could not fulfill them.

Why? Because it didn’t have enough staffing resources “due to its current workload of KORA requests.”

Meeting behind closed doors

Obtaining records and information isn’t the only obstacle regular citizens encounter.

Kansas is one of four states that do not require public notice of all regular public meetings, according to a Star analysis of the 50 states’ open meetings laws. The Kansas Open Meetings Act only requires notice be given to individuals who have requested it.

And Kansas and Arkansas are the only two states that do not require minutes to be kept of a public meeting.

Since 2016, the Kansas attorney general’s office has filed seven enforcement actions against municipalities that have violated the two open government laws. In each case, those who broke the law were asked to take additional training and agree to not break the law again.

The state also grants tax breaks worth hundreds of millions of dollars each year to lure businesses. Trouble is, you’ll never know who got those credits or how much. The state does what most states do not: It forbids the disclosure — even to lawmakers — of the recipients and how much they received. In Missouri and other states, that information is available online. (Story coming Tuesday)

It should be of little surprise then that Kansas has received D’s and F’s in several national studies about transparency over the years, including the 2015 Center for Public Integrity report where Kansas ranked with 10 states that scored F’s.

Some Kansans have fought to make the system more open.

Alan Cowles, a Lawrence physician, couldn’t find any record of his local health board or city or county commissions discussing a $750,000 lawsuit he knew about.

That’s because, he discovered, when members went into closed session they didn’t list specific reasons why. That prompted him to survey the state’s 10 largest cities and counties and he found that all but one — the Manhattan City Commission — would close meetings without giving “meaningful information” about the subjects they were going to discuss.

He found that they conducted at least 200 hours of government business behind closed doors.

“They were doing business in secrecy,” Cowles said. “What good is the open meetings act?”

He worked with Sen. Marci Francisco, a Lawrence Democrat, and Baumgardner, the Louisburg Republican, to change the law and require boards to state the specific topics they plan to discuss in a closed meeting. The legislation went into effect July 1.

“The public ought to have some chance in knowing what these governmental bodies were talking about,” Cowles said.

Judith Deedy, a mother of three in Johnson County, is worried about lack of transparency in education policy.

She is one of many Shawnee Mission School District parents who started paying closer attention to what happens in the state Capitol after budget cuts and other policy changes began affecting schools.

Deedy, executive director of the advocacy group Game On for Kansas Schools, recalled that a 2015 law changing education funding was “one of the wake-up calls.”

“That was a really clear example to so many people that we had a Legislature that was not listening to us,” she said, “and by us I mean any supporters of public education.”

The bill that made block grants the source for school funding was a “gut-and-go” measure — a common practice in Topeka where legislators take a bill that has already passed one chamber, gut it and insert an unrelated bill. The maneuver clears the path for less public debate and easier passage. (Story coming Tuesday)

“To us, it was absurd that something this important was getting rammed through so quickly,” Deedy said.

How did your legislator vote?

Aside from using “gut-and-go” measures and anonymous bills, lawmakers also can keep their votes from being disclosed to the public in committee meetings where much of the legislative work is done.

House rules don’t require committee votes to be logged unless a member requests his or her vote be recorded. The Senate only requires that the number of votes for and against an action be recorded.

When former Rep. Rubin told his committee in 2013 that the votes of each member would be recorded, “I had a revolt on my hands.”

Both Republicans and Democrats went to the House speaker, he said, and complained, asking how Rubin was allowed to do that. When the speaker said committee chairs have the power to require public votes, they asked to be removed from his committee.

Rubin backed down but still had every one of his own votes recorded; he recalled only three or four other committee members following his lead.

“I’ve talked to legislators in other states and so did Legislative Research, and they’ve never heard of such a thing,” Rubin said.

He said Topeka should not be a place for covert actions.

“The things we do in the Legislature affect people’s lives profoundly,” Rubin said. “People in Kansas have a right to know how their government operates and have the right to know about how decisions are arrived at that affect their lives.

“People have no idea this stuff is going on.”

The Star’s Kelsey Ryan, Bryan Lowry, Hunter Woodall, Andy Marso and Steve Vockrodt contributed to this report.

Laura Bauer: 816-234-4944, @kclaurab

Judy L. Thomas: 816-234-4334, @judylthomas

Max Londberg: 816-234-4378, @MaxLondberg

Monday

Many say that as children die, a state agency charged with protecting them instead focuses on itself.

Tuesday

Lawmakers hide their roles in legislation, and controversial bills pass outside the public’s eye.

Wednesday

Want to see what a police body camera captured? In a state where officers avoid scrutiny, good luck.

Thursday

Some of the state’s most vulnerable patients have suffered since Kansas privatized its Medicaid system.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article184298908.html#storylink=cpy

Why Do Republicans Vote The Way They Do? Follow the Money

Newsweek

Why Do Republicans Vote The Way They Do? Follow the Money

Peter Certo, Newsweek         November 12, 2017     

Sometimes I have to remind myself that people in “real America” with “real jobs” don’t while away their mortal hours reading about politics.

But God help me, if you’ve suffered through any coverage of the Republican tax plan, you’ve probably heard three things.

First, it’ll dramatically slash taxes on corporations and billionaires, raise them for nearly a third of us in the middle class, and blow a $1.5 trillion hole in the deficit.

Second, it’s unpopular. Less than a third of Americans support it, Reuters reports. That’s worse than Trump’s own approval rating, which remains mired in the 30s.

And third, the Republicans who control Congress believe it simply must pass.

In fact, this third point sets the tenor for the entire debate. “Republicans are desperate to rack up a legislative win after a series of embarrassing failures,” Time observes. “If tax reform doesn’t pass, many in the party fear an all-out revolt in 2018.”

http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/full/public/2017/01/12/0114trumprepublicans01.jpgRepublican members of the U.S. Congress at the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on January 3. Jonathan Ernst/reuters

“All of us realize that if we fail on taxes, that’s the end of the Republican Party’s governing majority in 2018,” South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham told Fox News recently. In fact, “that’s probably the end of the Republican Party as we know it.”

If the tax giveaway doesn’t pass, adds Utah Republican Mike Lee, “We might as well pack up our tent and go home.”

The thing is, that doesn’t make any sense. Gallup polls have shown over and over that most Americans think rich people and corporations should pay more, not less. Even a majority of Republican voters worry about what this wealth grab will do to the deficit.

If they were looking for a win, then, Republicans would be running against their own plan. So what gives?

Well, New York Republican Chris Collins recently offered a clue: “My donors are basically saying, ‘Get it done or don’t ever call me again.’” Ah!

In other words, it doesn’t have a lick to do with voters — many of whom in Collins’s high-tax district will likely pay more, since the party wants to end federal deductions for state and local taxes. It has everything to do with the affluent donors who bankroll GOP campaigns.

A similar dynamic played out in the health care debate. GOP leaders trotted out plan after plan that would eliminate coverage for anywhere from 20 to 24 million Americans — plans that never topped the low 20s in public support.

But those plans would have reduced taxes on the wealthy. So they had to pass.

“Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, who has been deeply involved in health policy for years, told reporters back home that he could count 10 reasons the new health proposal should not reach the floor,” the New York Times reported back in September, “but that Republicans needed to press ahead regardless.”

When those bills met their righteous demise, elite GOP fundraising took a huge dive. Senate Republicans lost $2 million in planned contributions alone, The Hill noted this summer. Fundraising in those months fell some $5 million below where it had been in the spring.

So there it is, team: Follow the money. It’s no wonder Princeton researchers found a few years ago that rich people matter to Congress, but ordinary folks generally don’t. That’s probably why many of us prefer to tune it out entirely.

It’s also exactly why we do have to pay attention. Especially in those rare moments when members admit exactly what’s going on.

Peter Certo is the editorial manager of the Institute for Policy Studies and the editor of OtherWords.org, which distributed this piece.

Arizona’s teacher problem is only getting worse

Salon

Arizona’s teacher problem is only getting worse

The state’s “warm body” law, designed to solve its teacher shortage, isn’t helping

Vincent Pena, Salon Young Americans      November 11,2017

https://media.salon.com/2017/11/empty-classroom-compressor.jpg?width=847&format=pjpg&auto=webpThis feature is part of Salon’s Young Americans initiative, showcasing emerging journalists reporting from America’s red states. Read more Young Americans stories.

One of the nation’s worst education systems is getting worse.

The total number of teachers in America is on the decline, as many teachers are underpaid and overworked and don’t receive adequate resources or funding from their schools or governments. The Wall Street Journal reports that since 2005, all 50 states and Washington, D.C. have experienced teacher shortages. But some states are really struggling. States like Arizona, which has been at or near the bottom of national education rankings for quite some time, have a dearth of qualified teachers — and are lowering certification standards as a result.

Arizona ranks 43rd overall in the latest U.S. News & World Report’s state-by-state education report. The state comes in at 22nd in higher education and ranks 47th in pre-kindergarten through high school. According to an Arizona Republic analysis from June, 22 percent of the state’s 46,000 teachers were not fully qualified to teach in the state, meaning they lacked proper training or certification to teach.

In May, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey passed the so-called “warm body” legislation, a nickname which stems from the concern that it allows almost anyone with a pulse t0 teach in the state. The bill enabled school administrators to set teacher certification standards on a district-by-district basis while also lowering the standards to teach. Now teachers can be hired with no formal teaching training, so long as they have five years of relevant experience in a field.

Ducey touted the bill as a sensible fix for a complex problem, saying, “No longer will an outdated process keep qualified, dedicated individuals out of the classroom.”

Only a month or so into the new school year, about 520 teachers have either resigned or abandoned their post, according to a survey published by the Arizona School Personnel Administrators Association, raising the total number of positions that remain unfilled to more than 1,300 across the state and exacerbating an already severe problem.

Arizona isn’t the only state to substantially lower the bar on requirements to become a qualified teacher. States like Minnesota and Illinois are in similar scenarios, forced to adjust the standards of becoming a teacher in order to satisfy the need for more teachers. Most of these states have come up with some form of legislation that strips down the standards to the bare minimum requirements, like simply having a bachelor’s degree and experience teaching a certain subject.

But the one in Arizona has been particularly problematic.

Many opposed the legislation, including the superintendent of public schools, Diane Douglas, and education advocacy groups, among others. They argued that lowering standards for teachers does not solve the problem in the long or short term, as it won’t necessarily help these schools retain these teachers long term because of inadequate wages and diminishing resources from the government. Having under-qualified teachers also directly affects the quality of the students’ education, who are the real losers in a situation like this.

“In my opinion, lowering the standards for new teachers is not the way to correct the problem,” Douglas said in a statement, before Ducey passed the bill. “Instead, I have recommended that we focus on increasing teacher salaries to help retain and attract the best candidates.”

Arizona spends relatively little on education, and what little money was budgeted for the state’s education system has been reduced several times over the last decade. The new budget introduced in May by Gov. Ducey included more money allocated to education than before, and promised a 2 percent increase in teacher wages, this after Arizona teachers saw the biggest one-year decrease in salary in the nation from 2014-15 to 2015-16, -0.5 percent change, according to data from the National Education Association. (Far below the national average of one-year change, 1.3 percent).

But even that increase won’t solve the issues that teachers currently face in Arizona, and it barely raises their salaries. The state’s teachers make on average $47,218, which ranks 42nd out of all 50 states. In addition to making far less than the national average, Arizona teachers are also saddled with the second highest teacher-to-student ratio in the country. At 23.8 to 1, it places an extra burden on the teachers to teach more students for, and with, less. In addition to teachers getting little in the way of an adequate salary, the state spends far too little on the students themselves, with an average per-student expenditure of $7,566, fourth lowest in the country.

In another effort to fix the teacher shortage problem, Gov. Ducey announced an initiative that would add an additional 200 teachers to Arizona public schools by offering a year of free tuition at a state university for every year one teaches in Arizona.

The program is called the Arizona Teachers Academy, and will be funded by the three in-state universities themselves, costing roughly $1 million. Ducey and administrators are hopeful to expand the program to more than 700 teachers within the next five years.

That certainly seems like a more reliable, long-term solution to the problem than lowering certification standards, but more is needed in the short-term. As it stands, hundreds of teachers are still needed across the state, and most of those positions likely won’t get filled anytime soon, at least not by qualified teachers.

Vincent Peña
Born and raised in Phoenix, Vincent Peña attended Northern Arizona for undergrad and headed to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln for grad school. He’s a huge journalism nerd who has mostly written about sports, but wanted to venture out and write about issues that are important to him and his community, especially in Arizona. There’s more to Arizona than cacti, bad government decisions, 117-degree heat, and mediocre sports teams — like 80-degree winters and the best Mexican food north of the border. His main vices are books and coffee.

Algae Toxins In Drinking Water Sickened People In 2 Outbreaks

NPR    Public Health

Algae Toxins In Drinking Water Sickened People In 2 Outbreaks

Greta Jochem      November 9, 2017

https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2017/11/09/gettyimages-453151868_custom-b5bb5c09e32b3048ed501c7d3e68946d472a7713-s1100-c15.jpgA algae bloom in Lake Erie contaminated the water supply for Toledo, Ohio, in August 2014. About 400,000 people were without usable water. The Washington Post/Getty Images

The city of Toledo and nearby communities have earned the dubious distinction of being the first to report outbreaks of human illness due to algae toxins in municipal drinking water, according to a report published Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Both areas take their drinking water from Lake Erie. Blue-green algae are common there and in many other in freshwater lakes, where they can multiply in the heat of summer and produce toxins, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Exposure to water contaminated by toxins can cause rashes, respiratory issues and stomach or liver illness, and are an ongoing issue in recreational areas around the country.

Not to mention they can cause dead zones in bodies of water, killing marine life. And if you’ve ever seen one, they don’t exactly make for a pleasant day at the beach. The bloom can look like chunks of green, earthy scum floating on the water, or make the water look like it’s been dyed green.

In September 2013, microcystin toxin was detected in the water treatment facility for Carroll Township, Ohio, at 3.5 times the safety threshold for drinking water. The township’s 2,000 residents were told to use water only for dishes and “non-drinking uses.” Six people suffered gastrointestinal illnesses in the outbreak, according to the CDC.

Then in August 2014, the state of Ohio declared a state of emergency after algal toxin contaminated the city of Toledo’s water supply. This time around, 110 people got sick, and almost half a million people had to quit drinking tap water until they got the all clear.

Drawing water from the cold depths of a lake can reduce the risk of contamination, according to the EPA, and water treatment facilities can filter out or neutralize toxins.

Among the biggest causes of algae blooms: an excess of nitrogen and phosphorus in warm, un-moving water. Those nutrients sneak into water predominantly through the use of fertilizer in agriculture. Warmer summers and higher rainfalls that cause sewer systems to overflow also help algae flourish.

It’s too early to know whether drinking water problems due to algae are becoming more common, says Jonathan Yoder, a CDC epidemiologist and one of the report’s authors.

“The bottom line is that we can’t say whether they are increasing or not, we know that the conditions that lead to algal blooms — nutrient pollution and warm water — are present in these freshwater lakes,” Yoder says. “I think there’s a continual risk in some of these areas for algal blooms and for some of them to be the type that have toxins that cause human illness.”

Kathy Benedict, lead author of the paper and an epidemiologist with the CDC’s Waterborne Disease Prevention Branch, points out that the cases in Ohio in 2013 and 2014 were not necessarily the first — they were just the first to be reported. The CDC is tracking harmful algal blooms through One Health Harmful Algal Bloom System (OHHABS) to help prevent illnesses, she says.

Fortunately, health problems from drinking water remain rare in the U.S. The CDC report, which was published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, found than in 2013-2014, 42 outbreaks were reported in 19 states, resulting in 1,006 illnesses and 13 deaths. Most of the cases and all of the deaths were caused by Legionella, the source of Legionnaire’s disease.

For Lake Erie, blue-green algae blooms have become an “annual summer plague,” in the words of Cleveland’s newspaper, The Plain Dealer. And they’ve just had one of their worst years yet. In the summer of 2017, blooms in the great lake were the third-largest ever recorded. The good news is that this time around, no one got sick.

Greta Jochem is an intern on NPR’s Science Desk.

Related:

Poisonous Algae Blooms Threaten People, Ecosystems Across U.S.

NPR    Environment

Poisonous Algae Blooms Threaten People, Ecosystems Across U.S.

From KQED, Heard on All Things Considered

https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2016/08/29/blue-green-algae-feature_slide-4531d73215d4ccb33756b50bcf8362704871020f-s1500-c85.jpgOfficials found the toxin microcystin in the blue-green algae present at Discovery Bay, Calif. For people exposed to the toxin, symptoms include dizziness, rashes, fever, vomiting and in more unusual cases, numbness.

Lesley McClurg/KQED      August 29, 2016

Serious algae outbreaks have hit more than 20 states this summer. Organisms are shutting down beaches in Florida, sickening swimmers in Utah and threatening ecosystems in California.

The blooms are a normal part of summer, but the frequency, size and toxicity this year are worse than ever.

And water managers are rattled.

“Everyone’s on edge with the cyanobacteria,” says Bev Anderson, a scientist with the California Water Resources Control Board.

Emails reporting outbreaks of cyanobacteria — or blue-green algae — fill Anderson’s inbox every morning.

The algae is showing up in lakes and big reservoirs like Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville. In some places, it looks like someone poured a giant can of green paint into the water. And the smell can be rank.

Anderson says California has posted danger signs at at least 30 lakes and reservoirs.

But what’s most alarming are the toxin levels, which Anderson says are “crazy.” Twenty micrograms per liter would be worrisome. Current readings are as high as 150,000 micrograms per liter.

As for the threat the algae outbreaks pose, water districts carefully screen for toxins in drinking water. It’s boaters and swimmers who are most at risk.

Discovery Bay, a community about 60 miles east of San Francisco, is normally buzzing with boats and personal watercraft. But this year, the waterfront has been eerily still for weeks.

On a recent day, Dave Holmes watches with disgust as his white speedboat and blue kayak bob in mucky green water.

“We’ve been here since 2002,” Holmes says. “It is by far the worst we’ve ever seen.”

Down the street, another Discovery Bay resident regrets diving into the water in mid-July. Wade Hensley ended up in the hospital because his body went numb from the waist down. It’s still numb.

“And, it was about three days of swimming. Not constant, but in and out. And they can’t pinpoint exactly what it is,” Hensley says.

But, county health officials did find microcystin — one of several toxins produced by algae — in Discovery Bay. More typical symptoms are dizziness, rashes, fever and vomiting.

https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2016/08/29/discovery-bay2_slide-f77a8c73ee98524eb0014d7f93d05ed72019cbdf-s1500-c85.jpgThe docks behind homes at Discovery Bay, Calif., are quieter than usual because of fears of blue green algae toxins. Lesley McClurg/KQED

Algae expert Bev Anderson blames a changing climate for the blooms, at least in part.

“We’re getting higher temperatures than we’ve seen ever in the past,” she says. “California had an unprecedented drought for the last five years which [has left] the water levels very low in a lot of areas.”

And shallow water means warmer water. Add to this cocktail, runoff from farms, golf courses and lawns — algae love fertilizers.

Worst of all, Anderson says, scientists are just starting to understand a problem they expect to escalate.

“Some areas have been monitoring and seeing blooms for decades, but they’ve never had toxins,” she says.

Researchers are finding poisonous blooms in surprising places like mountain lakes and streams.

So scientists are scrambling for solutions. The chemicals that kill algae can help temporarily, but they can also backfire by promoting other toxins.

When it comes to swimming, Anderson’s advice is simple.

“If in doubt, stay out!” she warns. “Don’t go in, don’t let your dogs in.”

There’s nothing to do now but wait for the green muck to disappear — and hope a cold winter kills it off.

Commentary: Why Corporate Tax Cuts Won’t Raise Wages

Fortune

Commentary: Why Corporate Tax Cuts Won’t Raise Wages

David Dodson           November 9, 2017

  https://s.yimg.com/lo/api/res/1.2/MkJ4nLLTU6JLsCCOLtU5Zw--/YXBwaWQ9eW15O3E9NzU7dz02NDA7c209MQ--/http://media.zenfs.com/en-us/video/video.fortune.time.com/c1643893ae2ca2403b5aea08a7fcfe9c

House Republican leaders are selling their one-sided tax reform to middle America on the promise that once their plan becomes law, companies will pay less in taxes and generate higher profits—and therefore raise the wages of their employees. It’s then, they tell us, that the working class will get their share of the pie.

Reality says otherwise.

The effective corporate tax rate—what companies actually pay—is the lowest it’s been since 1950, and corporate profits are among the highest in recorded history. Corporations today are sitting on a staggering $1.84 trillion in cash. Meanwhile wages have been stagnant since 1964, while CEO salaries have increased 997% since 1978.

If the Republicans’ logic on higher corporate profits driving higher wages was correct, the record corporate profits we’ve been seeing over the past several years would already be driving big wage increases. That’s not happening.

In 30 years of spending time in boardrooms, I’ve never heard a CEO say they’re raising the wages of their front-line workers because the company had a good year. It doesn’t work that way. When profits are rising, the CEO will first ask the board to raise their own salary. And if there’s anything left over, they pay dividends to their shareholders.

The working people of America are once again being told that the political elite have the levers of the U.S. economy figured out. But all they’ve really figured out is how to funnel more money to themselves and their allies.

All of this just exacerbates income inequality, which is bad for everyone. The current tax bill does nothing, for example, to close the carried interest loophole, which President Donald Trump once said was like “getting away with murder.” The estate tax reductions in the tax plan are solely for the top 2% of all taxpayers. And everyone making more than $500,000 is getting a significant marginal tax rate reduction.

Last week, the House leadership revealed a 429-page tax bill, and asked members to vote on it before Thanksgiving—13 business days later—because to them, passing a careless plan is better than passing no plan at all. They also know that the longer Americans have to review and understand this plan, the worse it looks. We have a partisan Congress so embarrassed by its lack of achievement that it’s willing to pass a bad tax bill and lie to the middle class about what it will accomplish just so Republicans can avoid another legislative failure.

Tax policy should not be about partisan wins. This affects real people—people who recycle tires and spray for mosquitoes, who sit on tractors instead of riding in limousines.

If Washington insiders truly want to reform the 74,608 pages of the tax code in favor of the middle class, they should pay America a visit. We’d be more than happy to show them around.

David Dodson is a lecturer in management at the Stanford School of Business.

Why Are Conservatives More Susceptible to Believing Lies?

Slate – Science

Why Are Conservatives More Susceptible to Believing Lies?

An interplay between how all humans think and how conservatives tend to act might actually explain a lot about our current moment.

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/11/171103_SCI_FoxBelievers.jpg.CROP.promo-xlarge2.jpgPhoto illustration by Natalie Matthews-Ramo. Photos by FoxNews and FoxNews.com.

By John Ehrenreich               November 9, 2017

Many conservatives have a loose relationship with facts. The right-wing denial of what most people think of as accepted reality starts with political issues: As recently as 2016, 45 percent of Republicans still believed that the Affordable Care Act included “death panels” (it doesn’t). A 2015 poll found that 54 percent of GOP primary voters believed then-President Obama to be a Muslim (…he isn’t).

Then there are the false beliefs about generally accepted science. Only 25 percent of self-proclaimed Trump voters agree that climate change is caused by human activities. Only 43 percent of Republicans overall believe that humans have evolved over time.

And then it gets really crazy. Almost 1 in 6 Trump voters, while simultaneously viewing photographs of the crowds at the 2016 inauguration of Donald Trump and at the 2012 inauguration of Barack Obama , insisted that the former were larger. Sixty-six percent of self-described “very conservative” Americans seriously believe that “Muslims are covertly implementing Sharia law in American courts.” Forty-six percent of Trump voters polled just after the 2016 election either thought that Hillary Clinton was connected to a child sex trafficking ring run out of the basement of a pizzeria in Washington, D.C., or weren’t sure if it was true.

If “truth” is judged on the basis of Enlightenment ideas of reason and more or less objective “evidence,” many of the substantive positions common on the right seem to border on delusional. The left is certainly not immune to credulity (most commonly about the safety of vaccines, GMO foods, and fracking), but the right seems to specialize in it. “Misinformation is currently predominantly a pathology of the right,” concluded a team of scholars from the Harvard Kennedy School and Northeastern University at a February 2017 conference. A BuzzFeed analysis found that three main hyperconservative Facebook pages were roughly twice as likely as three leading ultraliberal Facebook pages to publish fake or misleading information.

Why are conservatives so susceptible to misinformation? The right wing’s disregard for facts and reasoning is not a matter of stupidity or lack of education. College-educated Republicans are actually more likely than less-educated Republicans to have believed that Barack Obama was a Muslim and that “death panels” were part of the ACA. And for political conservatives, but not for liberals, greater knowledge of science and math is associated with a greater likelihood of dismissing what almost all scientists believe about the human causation of global warming.

It’s also not just misinformation gained from too many hours listening to Fox News, either, because correcting the falsehoods doesn’t change their opinions. For example, nine months following the release of President Obama’s long-form birth certificate, the percentage of Republicans who believed that he was not American-born was actually higher than before the release. Similarly, during the 2012 presidential campaign, Democrats corrected their previous overestimates of the unemployment rate after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the actual data. Republicans’ overestimated even more than before.

Part of the problem is widespread suspicion of facts—any facts. Both mistrust of scientists and other “experts” and mistrust of the mass media that reports what scientists and experts believe have increased among conservatives (but not among liberals) since the early ’80s. The mistrust has in part, at least, been deliberately inculcated. The fossil fuel industry publicizes studies to confuse the climate change debate; Big Pharma hides unfavorable information on drug safety and efficacy; and many schools in conservative areas teach students that evolution is “just a theory.” The public is understandably confused about both the findings and methods of science. “Fake news” deliberately created for political or economic gain and Donald Trump’s claims that media sites that disagree with him are “fake news” add to the mistrust.

But, the gullibility of many on the right seems to have deeper roots even than this. That may be because at the most basic level, conservatives and liberals seem to hold different beliefs about what constitutes “truth.” Finding facts and pursuing evidence and trusting science is part of liberal ideology itself. For many conservatives, faith and intuition and trust in revealed truth appear as equally valid sources of truth.

To understand how these differences manifest and what we might do about them, it helps to understand how all humans reason and rationalize: In other words, let’s take a detour into psychology. Freud distinguished between “errors” on the one hand, “illusions” and “delusions” on the other. Errors, he argued, simply reflect lack of knowledge or poor logic; Aristotle’s belief that vermin form out of dung was an error. But illusions and delusions are based on conscious or unconscious wishes; Columbus’s belief that he had found a new route to the Indies was a delusion based on his wish that he had done so.

Although Freud is out of favor with many contemporary psychologists, modern cognitive psychology suggests that he was on the right track. The tenacity of many of the right’s beliefs in the face of evidence, rational arguments, and common sense suggest that these beliefs are not merely alternate interpretations of facts but are instead illusions rooted in unconscious wishes.

This is a very human thing to do. As popular writers such as Daniel Kahneman, Cass Sunstein, and Richard Thaler have pointed out, we often use shortcuts when we reason, shortcuts that enable us to make decisions quickly and with little expenditure of mental energy. But they also often lead us astray—we underestimate the risks of events that unfold slowly and whose consequences are felt only over the long term (think global warming) and overestimate the likelihood of events that unfold rapidly and have immediate consequences (think terrorist attacks).

Our reasoning is also influenced (motivated, psychologists would say) by our emotions and instincts. This manifests in all kinds of ways: We need to maintain a positive self-image, to stave off anxiety and guilt, and to preserve social relationships. We also seek to maintain consistency in our beliefs, meaning that when people simultaneously hold two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values, one or the other must go. And so we pay more attention and give more credence to information and assertions that confirm what we already believe: Liberals enthusiastically recount even the most tenuous circumstantial evidence of Trump campaign collusion with the Russians, and dyed-in-the-wool Trump supporters happily believe that the crowd really was bigger at his candidate’s inauguration.

These limits to “objective” reasoning apply to everyone, of course—left and right. Why is it that conservatives have taken the lead in falling off the deep edge?

The answer, I think, lies in the interaction between reasoning processes and personality. It’s each person’s particular motivations and particular psychological makeup that affects how they search for information, what information they pay attention to, how they assess the accuracy and meaning of the information, what information they retain, and what conclusions they draw. But conservatives and liberals typically differ in their particular psychological makeups. And if you add up all of these particular differences, you get two groups that are systematically motivated to believe different things.

Psychologists have repeatedly reported that self-described conservatives tend to place a higher value than those to their left on deference to tradition and authority. They are more likely to value stability, conformity, and order, and have more difficulty tolerating novelty and ambiguity and uncertainty. They are more sensitive than liberals to information suggesting the possibility of danger than to information suggesting benefits. And they are more moralistic and more likely to repress unconscious drives towards unconventional sexuality.

Fairness and kindness place lower on the list of moral priorities for conservatives than for liberals. Conservatives show a stronger preference for higher status groups, are more accepting of inequality and injustice, and are less empathetic (at least towards those outside their immediate family). As one Tea Party member told University of California sociologist Arlie Hochschild, “People think we are not good people if we don’t feel sorry for blacks and immigrants and Syrian refugees. But I am a good person and I don’t feel sorry for them.”

Baptist minister and former Republican congressman J.C. Watts put it succinctly. Campaigning for Sen. Rand Paul in Iowa in 2015 he observed, “The difference between Republicans and Democrats is that Republicans believe people are fundamentally bad, while Democrats see people as fundamentally good.”

These conservative traits lead directly to conservative views on many issues, just as liberal traits tend to lead to liberal views on many issues. But when you consider how these conservative traits and these conservative views interact with commonly shared patterns of motivated reasoning, it becomes clearer why conservatives may be more likely to run into errors in reasoning and into difficulty judging accurately what is true and what is false.

It’s not just that Trump is “their” president, so they want to defend him. Conservatives’ greater acceptance of hierarchy and trust in authority may lead to greater faith that what the president says must be true, even when the “facts” would seem to indicate otherwise. The New York Times cataloged no less than 117 clearly false statements proclaimed publicly by Trump in the first six months of his presidency, with no evident loss in his supporters’ faith in him. In the same way, greater faith in the legitimacy of the decisions of corporate CEOs may strengthen the tendency to deny evidence that there are any potential benefits from regulation of industry.

Similarly, greater valuation of stability, greater sensitivity to the possibility of danger, and greater difficulty tolerating difference and change lead to greater anxiety about social change and so support greater credulity with respect to lurid tales of the dangers posed by immigrants. And higher levels of repression and greater adherence to tradition and traditional sources of moral judgment increase the credibility of claims that gay marriage is a threat to the “traditional” family.

Conservatives are also less introspective, less attentive to their inner feelings, and less likely to override their “gut” reactions and engage in further reflection to find a correct answer. As a result, they may be more likely to rely on error-prone cognitive shortcuts, less aware of their own unconscious biases, and less likely to respond to factual corrections to previously held beliefs.

The differences in how conservatives and liberals process information are augmented by an asymmetry in group psychological processes. Yes, we all seek to keep our social environment stable and predictable. Beliefs that might threaten relationships with family, neighbors, and friends (e.g., for a fundamentalist evangelical to believe that humans are the result of Darwinian evolution or for a coal miner to believe that climate change is real and human-made) must be ignored or denied, at peril of disrupting the relationships. But among all Americans, the intensity of social networks has declined in recent years. Church attendance and union membership, participation in community organizations, and direct political involvement have flagged. Conservatives come disproportionately from rural areas and small towns, where social networks remain smaller, but denser and more homogeneous than in the big cities that liberals dominate. As a result, the opinions of family, friends, and community may be more potent in conservative hotbeds than in the more anonymous big cities where Democrats dominate.

The lack of shared reality between left and right in America today has contributed greatly to our current political polarization. Despite occasional left forays into reality denial, conservatives are far more likely to accept misinformation and outright lies. Deliberate campaigns of misinformation and conservative preferences for information that fits in with their pre-existing ideology provide only a partial explanation. Faulty reasoning and judgment, rooted in the interactions between modes of reasoning and judgment shared by all with the specific personality patterns found disproportionately among conservatives may also play a central role.

Paul Ryan abandons key boast on Republican tax cut plan

MSNBC

Paul Ryan abandons key boast on Republican tax cut plan

http://www.msnbc.com/sites/msnbc/files/styles/ratio--3-2--1_5x-1245x830/public/paul_ryan_maddowblog_0517.jpg?itok=xAsseH9lepa05969869 Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan speaks to the media about President Trump’s disclosure of classified information to the Russians, along..       JIM LO SCALZO

By Steve Benen          November 10, 2017

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), desperate to approve a massive tax-cut package, spent much of the week making a specific boast: the GOP plan, Ryan told several conservative media outlets, delivers “a tax cut for everybody.” Who’ll benefit? “Every single person,” he said.

At face value, that doesn’t even make sense. Even if we put aside the independent assessments that show millions of Americans would pay more in taxes under the House Republican proposal, the whole point of tax reform is to shift burdens in such a way that some would pay less and others would pay more.

To hear Ryan tell it, GOP officials have come up with a way to cut taxes for literally “everyone” who pays taxes in this country. That’s clearly wrong, and an ostensible budget wonk should know better.

So why did the Speaker keep repeating a claim that obviously isn’t true? The Washington Post contacted his office and Ryan’s spokesperson said the Wisconsin congressman “misspoke.” Indeed, he tried to clarify the claim with reporters yesterday:

“When you take the thing all in its totality, what the analysis shows us, whether it’s analysis from [Joint Committee on Taxation], from the Tax Foundation, or even [the Tax Policy Center], that the average households at every income level see a tax cut.”

It’s an interesting shift. “A tax cut for everybody” is a Republican rallying cry, while “analyses show that the average households at every income level see a tax cut” isn’t quite as inspiring.

If we set the bar for honesty very low, I’ll give Ryan some credit for changing his talking point. If it were Donald Trump and his team, it’s likely they’d simply pretend their version of reality is true and insist that their “alternative facts” are of equal value to actual facts. The Speaker obviously shouldn’t have repeated the bogus claim over and over again, but at least he didn’t stick to it when confronted with the truth.

The trouble, though, is that Ryan is dealing with a nagging and uncomfortable detail: under his proposal, millions of Americans really will pay more than they’re paying now. His office can craft various talking points based on income-level averages, but when push comes to shove, Republicans are trying to approve a tax blueprint that increase many families’ tax bills.

As the Post’s fact-check piece added, “In the case of married families with children – whom Republicans are assiduously wooing as beneficiaries of their plan – about 40 percent are estimated to receive tax hikes by 2027, even if the provisions are retained. That would be a nasty surprise for folks who had heard Ryan’s less-precise spin.”

Republicans can tell these folks about averages and the “trickle-down” effects of their tax hike paying for a corporate tax break, but I have a hunch they won’t be impressed.

Trump’s nominee to lead his environmental council isn’t sure if water expands as it warms

Washington Post

Democracy Dies in Darkness

Trump’s nominee to lead his environmental council isn’t sure if water expands as it warms

By Philip Bump            November 9, 2017

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/A2RR3OS6KI7VTIE3RYKWMKQRNI.JPG&w=600President Trump walks out after an announcement about the Paris climate agreement in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington on June 1. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg)

Kathleen Hartnett White was nominated by President Trump last month to lead his Council on Environmental Quality, the top environmental position within the White House. Under Barack Obama, the council’s initiatives included implementing sustainability efforts throughout the executive branch and establishing systems for addressing climate change.

Based on her testimony Wednesday during a confirmation hearing, it’s safe to assume that Hartnett White will not continue similar efforts.

Our Chris Mooney articulated the various ways in which Hartnett White was pressed on the issue of climate change, including her insistence that, while human activity probably contributes to the warming climate, the extent of that contribution is “very uncertain.”

That’s not the view of the vast majority of climate scientists, of course. Climate scientists agree that the burning and extraction of fossil fuels releases tons of gases into the atmosphere — carbon dioxide and methane, for example — that serve as a blanket (or the glass in a greenhouse, if you will), preventing heat from escaping. This is, for the time being, still the position of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Hartnett White’s position is a political one. From the outset of the modern debate over climate change, uncertainty has been the watchword of those who weren’t interested in addressing greenhouse-gas emissions. That asserted uncertainty once centered on whether warming was happening. Then it focused on whether humans were involved. Now, in the Hartnett White iteration, it centers on how much humans are involved. (This was the position Trump espoused in an interview with the New York Times during the campaign.)

In the case of Hartnett White, that insistence that there’s uncertainty — again, a view not widely held in the scientific community, as NASA points out —  leads to some difficult rhetorical dead ends.

Consider this exchange from Wednesday, in which Hartnett White is questioned by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.).

https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/928437200655667200/pu/img/pLcW25WHByxxOz-L.jpg

Sheldon Whitehouse   @SenWhitehouse

I don’t even know where to begin with  @realdonaldtrump’s CEQ nominee Kathleen Hartnett White—she outright rejects basic science.

Whitehouse asks two questions. The first is whether Hartnett White is aware of the extent to which oceans trap heat. This is a complicated question that is probably outside the awareness of a layperson. Whitehouse seems to believe that such a question — not a complicated one in the context of the issue of climate change — should be understood by the nominee to serve in the top White House environmental position.

In short, research suggests that as much as 90 percent of the heat trapped by the atmosphere ends up being stored in the Earth’s oceans. That has an expected consequence: Ocean water temperatures are higher now than they used to be.

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Those warmer water temperatures have some perhaps unexpected consequences, too. It’s shifted the habitats of sea animals and endangered other sea life. The environmental effects, in other words, are not insignificant.

Notice, though, that Hartnett White doesn’t say that she knows whether more than 50 percent of the heat trapped in the atmosphere has been stored in the oceans (the correct answer, of course, being that far more than 50 percent has). All she knows is that, whatever the answer, it’s contested. How it’s contested isn’t clear; all she knows is that it is. Her knowledge of the issue is limited to one data point: Uncertainty exists. We’ll note that that data point is not supported by any available evidence.

We noted some unexpected effects of a warming ocean above. But anyone who’s ever tried to boil water on a stove is aware of another effect of warming water: It expands. Fill a saucepan to the brim with water and crank up the heat — you know what happens next.

But when Whitehouse asks that question — does water expand when it’s warmer? — Hartnett White won’t answer.

This is important in the context of climate change. Warmer seas mean higher sea levels, and higher sea levels mean more flooding and more damage to coastal real estate. Melting ice due to global warming will raise sea levels, but hotter seas will expand by themselves.

It’s likely that Hartnett White knows that water expands as it warms. Most humans do. What she’s doing is offering a political answer to a question asked in a political context. The question, then, is why she sees it as politically valuable to avoid acknowledging that water expands as it warms.

The answer goes back to our point at the outset. Hartnett White was probably nominated to run the CEQ because she’s willing to brush aside the scientific consensus on climate change, not in spite of it. If that means that an awkward video trickles out over social media for one day, so be it.

Philip Bump is a correspondent for The Post based in New York City.