Month: May 2023

Associated Press

Biden’s shift on F-16s for Ukraine came after months of internal debate

Aamer Madhani and Lolita C. Baldor – May 22, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden’s decision to allow allies to train Ukrainian forces on how to operate F-16 fighter jets — and eventually to provide the aircraft themselves — seemed like an abrupt change in position but was in fact one that came after months of internal debate and quiet talks with allies.

Biden announced during last week’s Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan, that the U.S. would join the F-16 coalition. His green light came after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spent months pressing the West to provide his forces with American-made jets as he tries to repel Russia’s now 15-month-old grinding invasion.

Long shadowing the administration’s calculation were worries that such a move could escalate tensions with Russia. U.S. officials also argued that learning to fly and logistically support the advanced F-16 would be difficult and time consuming.

But over the past three months, administration officials shifted toward the view that it was time to provide Ukraine’s pilots with the training and aircraft needed for the country’s long-term security needs, according to three officials familiar with the deliberations who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Still, the change in Biden’s position seemed rather sudden.

In February, Biden was insistent in an interview with ABC’s David Muir that Ukraine “doesn’t need F-16s now” and that “I am ruling it out for now.” And in March, a top Pentagon policy official, Colin Kahl, told U.S. lawmakers that even if the president approved F-16s for Ukraine, it could take as long as two years to get Ukrainian pilots trained and equipped.

But as the administration was publicly playing down the prospect of F-16s for Ukraine in the near term, an internal debate was heating up.

Quiet White House discussions stepped up in February, around the time that Biden visited Ukraine and Poland, according to the U.S. officials.

Following the trip, discussions that included senior White House National Security Council, Pentagon and State Department officials began on the pros and cons and the details of how such a transfer might work, officials said. Administration officials also got deeper into consultations with allies.

In April, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin heard from defense leaders from allied countries during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group who were looking for U.S. permission to train the Ukrainians on F-16s, according to a Defense Department official who was not authorized to comment publicly. Austin raised the matter during the NSC policy discussions and there was agreement that it was time to start training.

Austin also raised the issue with Biden before the G7 summit with a recommendation “to proceed with approving allies” to train the Ukrainians and transfer the aircraft, the department official said. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also was a strong advocate for pushing forward with the plan during the U.S. policy talks and conveying to Biden increasing European urgency on the issue, officials said.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan traveled to London on May 8 for talks with British, French and German allies on Ukraine, and F-16s were high on the agenda. They got into the nitty gritty on how to go about provide training and which countries might be willing to transfer jets to Ukraine. It was agreed that the focus would be on training first, according to one of the officials.

Sullivan, before leaving London, spoke by phone with his counterparts from the Netherlands and Poland, both countries that have F-16s and “would be essential to any efforts to provide Ukraine jets for any future use.” Denmark also could potentially provide the jets, the official added.

Biden and Sullivan discussed how the upcoming G7 summit in Hiroshima could provide a good opportunity for him to make the case to key allies on the administration’s shifting stance on fighter jets.

They also discussed Biden backing allies providing jets to Ukraine — a line he had previously appeared not to want to cross out of concern that it could draw the West into what could be seen as direct confrontation with Moscow.

Biden, in private talks with fellow G7 leaders on Friday, confirmed that the U.S. would get behind a joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 and that as things went on, they would work together on who would provide them and how many would be sent.

State, Pentagon and NSC officials are now developing the training plan and “when, where and how to deliver F-16s” to Ukraine as part of the long-term security effort, the official said.

U.S. officials say it will take several months to iron out details, but the U.S. Air Force has quietly determined that the actual training could realistically be done in about four months. The Air Force based the far shorter estimate on a visit by two Ukrainian pilots to a U.S. air base in March, where they got to learn about the F-16 and fly simulators. The training, officials say, would take place in Europe.

White House officials have bristled at the notion that Biden’s decision amounted to a sea change.

The administration had been focused on providing Ukraine with weapons — including air defense systems, armored vehicles, bridging equipment and artillery — that were needed for a coming counteroffensive. There also were concerns that sending F-16s would eat up a significant portion of the money allocated for Ukraine.

What changed, the official added, is that other allies got to a point where they were willing to provide their own jets as part of a U.S.-based coalition.

The Biden administration is still examining whether it will directly provide its own F-16s to Ukraine. Regardless, it needed buy-in from other allies because the U.S. wouldn’t be able to provide the full fleet of jets Zelenskyy says is needed.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the F-16 will give Ukraine a key capability for the long term but it won’t be a “game changer.”

Kendall told a gathering of reporters on Monday there has been an awareness that “we needed to go there at some point, but we didn’t have a sense of urgency about this. I think we’re at a reasonable place to make that decision now.”

Another potential wrinkle in the F-16 conversation involves Turkey.

Turkey wants to buy 40 new F-16s from the U.S., but some in Congress oppose the sale until Turkey approves NATO membership for Sweden, which applied to join the alliance in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has objected to Sweden’s perceived support of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, the leftist extremist group DHKP-C and followers of the U.S.-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, who Ankara claims was behind a failed military coup attempt in 2016.

Erdogan is facing opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a runoff election on Sunday. If Erdogan wins, as expected, White House officials are increasingly hopeful that the Turkish leader will withdraw his opposition to Sweden’s membership, according to the U.S. official.

If Erdogan drops opposition to Sweden joining NATO, it could lead to Turkey getting its long desired F-16s and may eventually add to the number of older F-16s in circulation, which could benefit Ukraine.

Associated Press White House correspondent Zeke Miller contributed reporting.

Business Insider

A top Ukrainian commander fighting around Bakhmut says military experts who portray Russian soldiers as only ‘stupid and miserable’ are wrong

Bethany Dawson – May 21, 2023

• A Ukrainian commander has contradicted suggestions of the poor state of Russian troops.
• Andriy Biletsky, of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, said Russian soldiers were not “stupid.”
• The comments come as President Zelenskyy said that Bakhmut was completely destroyed.

The commander of a Ukrainian brigade fighting on the frontlines in Bakhmut has dismissed the notion that Russian soldiers are ill-equipped and unhappy.

In a video posted on Telegram, Andriy Biletsky, a commander with Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, said recent victories had not come at “an easy price.”

The enemy is not as stupid and miserable as some experts show him to be,” said Biletsky.

He added that “The enemy is stubborn and cruel. But we are moving forward. We gnaw out every meter of Ukrainian land. Slava Ukraini!”

Biletsky’s comments contradict a lot of previous analysis on Russia’s military, which has tended to suggest that troops are poorly equipped, lack training, and suffer from low morale.

The Telegram video comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conceded that Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine where Russian and Ukrainian forces have been waging a particularly brutal battle, had been completely destroyed.

“They’ve destroyed everything. There are no buildings. It’s a pity. It’s tragedy,” Zelenskyy said during a Sunday meeting with President Joe Biden at the G7 summit in Hiroshima.

“For today, Bakhmut is only in our hearts,” he added.

Zelenskyy’s office later made it clear that he had not meant that the city had fallen to Russian troops, the BBC reported.

Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade in action

Meanwhile, Ukraine said it had made advances on the flanks around Bakhmut, where Biletsky’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade has seen action.

Recent helmet-cam footage from the brigade represents the reality of the fierce fighting, showing a smoky ruin of Russian trenches littered with corpses after the unit mounted a series of surprise counterattacks.

Insider’s Isobel Van Hagen reports the video depicts Ukrainian soldiers throwing grenades, firing their weapons, and advancing toward Russian positions.

In his video, Biletsky described battles earlier this week against Russia’s 72nd Brigade and the so-called “Storm Z. ” He called it “an analogue” of the Wagner Group units made up of released convicts, operated by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

He described hard-won victories that left “more than 50” Russians dead and the capture of “a lot of trophies: equipment, weapons, and prisoners.”

The British Ministry of Defence announced additional Russian troops had likely been deployed to Bakhmut to fight against Kyiv’s advances.

The intelligence briefing stated that Russia’s leadership will “likely continue to see capturing Bakhmut as the key immediate war aim,” which will “allow them to claim some degree of success in the conflict.”

Business Insider

Russia adapted to the game-changing HIMARS, but Ukraine’s new Storm Shadow missiles could put the fear back into its commanders, warfare experts say

 Jake Epstein – May 20, 2023

• The UK recently outfitted Ukraine with its Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles.
• This new strike capability puts Russian positions far behind the front lines within Ukraine’s reach.
• Experts say Russian commanders are now facing logistical headaches and a renewed sense of fear.

Ukraine’s military just got its hands on Storm Shadow missiles from the UK, and it is already making good use of the newly acquired weapon that significantly boosts Kyiv’s long-range strike capabilities.

Russian forces have already adapted to game-changing weapons that Ukraine introduced into the war last year, like the US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). Warfare experts say Storm Shadow missiles could spark new logistical headaches for Russia, giving Kyiv a massive capability to put the fear back into Moscow’s commanders who thought they were safe and out of reach.

“It’s going to have a terrible effect on morale for the Russian forces, and officers and commanders who are going to be operating within Ukraine,” George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, told Insider.

The UK announced earlier this month plans to provide Ukraine with the Storm Shadow, an air-launched cruise missile developed in partnership with France that has seen combat experience in various conflicts across the Middle East. When released from an aircraft, these missiles drop to fly at a low altitude and avoid detection.

Kyiv has long pushed its Western partners for extended-range missiles and munitions able to strike Russian positions behind the front liens and deep inside the occupied territories of eastern and southern Ukraine, but the US and its NATO allies, worried that the weapons will provoke an escalatory response from Moscow, have largely been reluctant to do so, until now.

With an operational range of 155 miles, Storm Shadow will more than triple the distance for Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities. The much-celebrated HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system that Kyiv obtained from the US last summer can only hit targets up to 50 miles away. With the Storm Shadow, Russian-occupied territory that was previously out of Ukraine’s reach is now in range of its weapons.

UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told reporters on Thursday that he understands Storm Shadow missiles have been used since they were sent to Ukraine, but he declined to go into any further details. A recent strike in the eastern Luhansk region has reportedly been linked to the new missiles.

It’s going to ‘degrade’ Russia’s war effort

Since the early weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and even now, the Kremlin’s forces have relied on a tactic of carrying out massive artillery barrages to destroy Ukrainian positions and then advancing through the rubble. When this wasn’t possible, they sent human waves into urban environments to make territorial gains at high costs.

When the HIMARS arrived in Ukraine nearly a year ago, they quickly became highly revered among Kyiv’s forces. These truck-mounted and highly mobile systems were used to carry out precision strikes targeting Russian command posts, ammunition depots, and bridges and have been hailed by experts as a “game-changing” weapon.

Ukraine used the HIMARS to degrade the effectiveness of Russia’s battlefield tactic, which depended heavily on Moscow’s ability to stage massive amounts of artillery shells near the front line to sustain a high rate of fire, Barros, the ISW analyst, said. To mitigate their new problem, Russian forces had to move their ammunition back outside the range of the HIMARS to prevent it from being destroyed.

Russia has also shifted key logistics hubs deep behind the front lines, relocated command and control to hardened structures in the rear, and reorganized air defense systems, Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, wrote in a recent analysis on the potential impact of Storm Shadow.

Introducing Storm Shadow to the battlefield will resolve “serious tactical challenges” that Ukraine currently faces, Watling wrote. Its warhead is designed to penetrate hardened targets and its stealth features will help it avoid detection and interception.

Barros said the implication is that Russia’s tactic “will be reduced even further” because it will require the Russians to undertake even more stringent sustainment and protection measures to avoid the missile’s long range. This means pushing ammunition depots and command and control efforts even deeper into occupied territory and away from the front lines.

“It’s just going to degrade the overall Russian war effort,” Barros said. “The Ukrainians are very capable of making the Russians pay.”

‘Afraid for their personal safety’

Beyond forcing the Russians to once again try to figure out how to protect key positions from a long-range strike capability, Ukraine could use its Storm Shadow missiles to instill a fresh sense of fear into Moscow’s commanders who previously thought they were out of range.

Higher-ranking Russian military officials like officers and commanders hanging out deep in Ukraine’s occupied territory might have previously enjoyed a feeling of safety knowing that they were far from the front lines and beyond the reach of Kyiv’s existing firepower range.

But in the blink of an eye, Russian commanders now understand that Ukraine has the potential capacity to deliver a warhead right to their location, Barros said. Needless to say, the Storm Shadow development poses a threat to these commanders, especially because Ukraine has already proven that it’s quite capable of eliminating them, thanks in part to Moscow’s poor command and control practices.

“So the more that these Russian commanders are exposed to Ukrainian fires, I expect their survivability to decrease,” Barros said.

Watling, meanwhile, noted that making Russian commanders “afraid for their personal safety” is an effective way to degrade their battlefield decision-making and priorities.

“Employed well, in conjunction with psychological operations and other capabilities, Storm Shadow offers myriad opportunities to cognitively attack the enemy,” he said. “In this sense, their existence in Ukraine’s arsenal may be as significant as their use.”

The delivery of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine comes as the country gears up for its highly anticipated counteroffensive, which is expected to be aimed at liberating occupied territory in the eastern and southern regions. While there are speculations over when the offensive will actually begin, Kyiv’s forces have enjoyed some recent territorial gains through counterattacks around the war-torn city of Bakhmut, where intense and brutal fighting has raged for months.

The recent delivery of Storm Shadow missiles calls into question whether the Biden administration will provide Ukraine with surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), a much-sought-after weapon that has an impressive range of nearly 200 miles and can be launched from Kyiv’s existing force of HIMARS.

Should the US eventually send ATACMS, it would not be the first time that Washington has moved to outfit Ukraine with notable military aid following the footsteps of European partners. Britain confirmed earlier this year that it would send Kyiv its Challenger main battle tanks, paving the way for Germany and the Biden administration to eventually do the same with Leopard and American M1 Abrams tanks.