| What does a second Trump presidency mean for climate change? |
| By Amber Phillips – November 12, 2024 The planet is at a “can’t-miss” moment to stop climate change, world leaders at an international climate summit warned this week. Meanwhile, the United States has just elected a president who has described climate change as a “hoax,” and some of his allies have suggested doing away with entire federal agencies that deal with climate. “You’ll have more oceanfront property,” Trump said during the campaign, as 2024 is on track to be the world’s hottest year on record. Here’s what a second Trump presidency could mean for a rapidly warming planet and extreme weather. The government may stop trying to reduce emissions: Many scientists expect Trump to redo many of his first presidency’s antagonistic actions toward climate change, such as when he yanked the United States out of the Paris agreement, an international pact to lower emissions by a certain date. That would create a vacuum that may not be filled by another world leader, climate analysts say. The Earth is already behind on its modest goals to prevent the worst ravages of climate change.“You can see the global difference with U.S. leadership and the U.S. leaning in, saying, ‘This is where we want to go,’” said Heather Reams, president of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a right-of-center climate nonprofit that has endorsed Republican candidates. “It will be incumbent on other countries to lead now, but they may not have the same leverage as the U.S.” The U.S. will increase drilling for oil: “Drill, baby drill!” was literally in Republicans’ official policy platform. Trump argues that this will make oil prices cheaper and help the United States become less reliable on foreign oil. But that’s not where the world is heading, say climate experts. “Doubling down on fossil fuels is absurd,” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said at the world climate summit Tuesday. “The clean-energy revolution is here.”But ironically, Trump’s emphasis on drilling could boost investments in clean energy, too, Ream said. There’s bipartisan support in Congress for permitting reform, which would make it easier for all energy companies — oil, solar, wind — to get permits to produce more energy.“Republicans are laser-focused on energy dominance and reducing energy prices,” Reams said. “And that could benefit an all-of-the-above approach.” The government may even get out of weather forecasting: Project 2025, a blueprint for a future Republican administration that was written by many of the president-elect’s allies, calls for taking a hatchet to the government’s role in forecasting not only climate change but extreme weather. Trump distanced himself from the plan during the campaign, but much of it aligns with his priorities. Project 2025 wants to scrub mentions of climate change in nearly every corner of the federal government, including eliminating departments — and even entire agencies — that deal with it. That would mean dramatically downsizing or getting rid of the United States’ hurricane forecasting agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and even the National Weather Service. Meanwhile, the plan calls for putting people who question the science of climate change into positions of leadership. This week, Trump named Republican former congressman Lee Zeldin, a Trump loyalist without much experience in environmental policy, to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, which regulates polluters. Also this week, the Biden administration began requiring oil companies to pay a fee for emitting methane. But Trump could pretty easily roll that back, reports The Washington Post’s Maxine Joselow.“It’s kind of like ‘stick your head in the sand and the problem will go away,’” said Leah Stokes, a political scientist at the University of California at Santa Barbara and co-host of the climate podcast “A Matter of Degrees.” “But that isn’t how physics and climate change work. Even if you don’t think it’s real, it’s real. Even if you don’t talk about it, it’s still happening.” Conservatives may prioritize clean-energy investments, despite large-scale Republican inaction on climate change, there is a growing conservative movement interested in addressing the problem, Reams noted, including a roughly 80-member Conservative Climate Caucus in the House of Representatives. And Trump has a billionaire clean-energy tycoon in his inner circle, Elon Musk, who has said climate change is real and a threat. The first test of whether Republicans in Congress are willing to move forward on clean energy will be whether they repeal President Joe Biden’s energy efficiency tax credits, to pay for broader tax cuts Trump is pushing. The clean-energy tax credits have become more popular than expected across the country. Americans who make climate-friendly upgrades to their homes are eligible for the credits, and by some estimates, three-quarters of investments go to Republican communities to help manufacture clean-energy products. This summer, 18 Republicans sent a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), asking him to keep the incentives. Expect a major fight among Republicans about this, Reams predicted. AMBER’S PICKS ANALYSIS The best and worst candidates of 2024, By Aaron Blake Tracking Trump’s picks for his Cabinet and administration, By Washington Post staff The counties that picked the winning president every year since 2000, By Dan Keating No immunity decision in Trump’s hush money case as prosecutors weigh how to proceed, By Shayna Jacobs Scientists may have figured out why a potent greenhouse gas is rising. The answer is scary. By Shannon Osaka Biden races to Trump-proof his climate legacy, By Maxine Joselow Judge blocks Louisiana from requiring schools to display Ten Commandments, By Kim Bellware Democratic warnings about Trump were not simply campaign rhetoric, By Philip Bump |
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