Nearly 1,000 Ukrainians have shown up at the U.S.-Mexico border so far this month — a jump from the 272 encounters in February, according to Department of Homeland Security documents obtained by Axios.
Why it matters: The numbers are low compared to other nationalities arriving at the border in droves — such as the nearly 17,000 Cubans last month. But Russian and Ukrainian migrants present new challenges for border officials, and highlight the desperation of some fleeing Russia’s invasion.
Between the lines: Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas recently told reporters border officials have been instructed to consider using exemptions for Ukrainians rather than kicking them back to Mexico under a COVID-19-linked policy known as Title 42.
This would allow them to apply for asylum in the U.S. The documents indicate at least some Ukrainians have been allowed in to seek asylum.
The administration has already paused deportations to Ukraine and other countries in the region, as CBS News has reported.
Border officials under President Biden have used Title 42 — a Trump-era policy — to quickly expel migrants more than 1 million times.
What to watch: Recent documents reviewed by Axios highlight local concerns that Russians and Eastern European migrants may be forming a make-shift camp in Tijuana.
A similar camp in Del Rio, Texas, hosting mostly Haitian migrants drove national news in September, and forced the administration to quickly take action.
The number of Russians arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border has been declining from a high of more than 2,000 in December, to roughly 750 so far this month.
It’s still an unusual number, and reflects a broader shift in the demographics of people arriving at the southwest border. During the past year, there have been far more people from places outside of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador — including such far-flung departure points as Turkey and India.
What they’re saying: “Consistent with the CDC Order, DHS continues to grant Title 42 exceptions to particularly vulnerable individuals of all nationalities for humanitarian reasons,” a DHS spokesperson told Axios.
”All exceptions are made on a case-by-case basis.”
The order is still in place for single adults and family units, the spokesperson added.
The big picture: Russia’s invasion has now forced more than 3.7 million people to flee Ukraine, according to U.N. statistics.
There’s been growing pressure for the U.S. to do more to aid these refugees.
On Thursday, the government announced it would welcome up to 100,000 Ukrainians and others fleeing Russia’s aggression through various pathways.
Meanwhile, U.S. border officials are already struggling with overall large numbers of migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border.
They’re on track to reach 200,000 encounters total for March, the Washington Post reported — the highest monthly total since August.
The administration has been preparing for the potential of a mass migration event this spring — especially if policies aimed at inhibiting the spread of the coronavirus are ended in the coming weeks.
German farmers in Ukraine press ahead in defiance of war
Sophie Makris – March 25, 2022
German farmers Tim Nandelstädt (centre) and Torben Reelfs (right) push ahead with their crop planting in Ukraine despite Russia’s invasion (AFP/Tim NANDELSTAEDT)
War has come to Ukraine but German farmers Torben Reelfs and Tim Nandelstaedt are planting the first sugar beets of the season on their plot of land in western Ukraine (AFP/Tim NANDELSTAEDT)
Every year in early spring, German farmers Torben Reelfs and Tim Nandelstaedt turn the soil and plant the first sugar beets of the season on their plot of land in western Ukraine.
But this year, the ritual has taken on a new meaning.
“It’s very symbolic. When the machine turns over the land, it’s a different feeling than in previous years,” said Reelfs, 41, speaking to AFP by phone from the farm about 60 kilometres (37 miles) from Lviv.
When Russian troops invaded Ukraine on February 24, Reelfs and Nandelstaedt immediately fled to Germany to “get away from the missiles, to be on the territory of the EU, of NATO”, according to Nandelstaedt, 43.
“At first I thought that Russia would get to the Polish border very quickly,” he said.
But three weeks later, both of them were back in Derzhiv, their adopted home for the last 10 years.
“What we are seeing here, the solidarity on a military and a humanitarian level, is inspiring and gives you hope,” said Reelfs.
– ‘Poker game’ –
With the west of Ukraine so far largely spared from the deadly fighting raging in the south and east, the two men decided to go ahead and start sowing their crops.
The pair had already managed to secure the fuel, fertiliser and seeds they needed.
They began by sowing the sugar beets, which will be followed by corn in around two weeks’ time and soybeans in around two months.
It’s too early to tell whether the crops will ever be harvested, but for now, Reelfs is sure it was “the right decision”.
He also feels “a certain responsibility” to “reduce the risk of catastrophic famines” around the world as a result of the war.
Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was the world’s fourth largest exporter of corn and was on its way to becoming the third largest exporter of wheat behind Russia and the United States.
Corn, wheat and sunflower oil prices have already soared in recent weeks and the situation looks set to worsen if the “breadbasket of Europe” is unable to keep up with the usual supplies.
The two German farmers know that going ahead with the harvest is a huge risk — a “poker game”, according to Reelfs.
“What will happen in six months, when we harvest, I honestly have no idea,” said Nandelstaedt. “Some farms have already been hit by missiles or attacked by ground troops. Fields are burning. If that happens here, it will be over.”
– ‘Adventure’ –
Reelfs and Nandelstaedt have spent the last decade building up their farm in Ukraine, which covers 1,900 hectares of land and employs 25 people.
The business partners, who have been friends for over a decade, were among a wave of farmers who took up leases on land in Ukraine after the fall of the Soviet Union, attracted by the cheap prices and fertile soil.
They liked the idea of an “adventure” and the chance to build everything from scratch, according to Reelfs.
Between 2008 and 2009, “we visited almost 50 villages and there was still available land everywhere”, he said.
“When we started out, you could rent a hectare of land for 17 euros ($18.70) and could even pay in kind, with wheat or sugar. Today, we pay well over 100 euros here and it is more than 200 euros in many regions.”
It’s a sign of how much Ukraine has changed over the years, he said: “Corruption has greatly decreased… and the standard of living has got better and better.”
Reelfs believes it has been a surprise to the Russian forces to see that “people are not at all unhappy with their government, they want to support the army and defend their country”.
During their stay in Germany, Reelfs and Nandelstaedt collected 130,000 euros in donations for Ukraine and helped to arrange accommodation for around about 170 people in villages around Berlin.
“Even though they all feel welcome there, they want to return to Ukraine as soon as possible,” said Reelfs.
Rumors of ‘filtration camps’ and mass deportation in Ukraine raise old USSR fears
Cassandra Vinograd – March 25, 2022
Rumors of ‘filtration camps’ and mass deportation in Ukraine raise old USSR fears
The reports have filtered out for days: Mass kidnappings, forced deportations, Ukrainians spirited across the border to Russia.
The Ukrainian foreign ministry said Thursday that 6,000 residents of the besieged city of Mariupol had been “forcibly deported” by Russian forces — stripped of their passports and identity documents — and taken to Russia as “hostages.”
Like much in this war, the claims have been impossible to independently verify. A statement from the foreign ministry Thursday echoed allegations and details released by Mariupol’s city council in recent days, stating that “several thousand” of its residents had been taken to “filtration camps” in Russia before being “redirected to remote cities.”
Russia, in turn, has cited the “evacuations” of more than 380,000 people from Ukraine to its territory.
Communications are sporadic or down, and no foreign journalists are left in the city. That’s meant relying on the rare videos that have emerged from the city — and on the testimony of those who’ve managed to escape.
Yet the language — “filtration camps” — and the imagery of mass deportations are particularly resonant, evoking a dark chapter in Russian history.
The trauma and memory of mass deportations inflicted by the then-Soviet Union are still fresh. An estimated 3 million people on the USSR’s borders were rounded up and forcibly deported to remote parts of Siberia and Central Asia between 1936 and 1952, according to the United Nations refugee agency. Some 60,000 were Poles and Ukrainians.
The echoes of history — and their power — have not been lost on Mariupol’s city council.
“What the occupiers are doing today is familiar to the older generation, who saw the horrific events of World War II, when the Nazis forcibly captured people,” it said in a statement March 19. “It is hard to imagine that in the 21st century people will be forcibly deported to another country.”
Service members of pro-Russian troops are seen atop of an armoured vehicle (Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters)
With verifiable information limited and access to Mariupol impossible, the claims could be true. They also could be enhanced by the fog of war — or elements of a parallel information war, in which messaging is key to enforcing each side’s narrative.
Regardless, the reports have caught the attention of Ukraine’s supporters, humanitarians and even the White House. Department of State spokesman Ned Price said the United States was trying to corroborate the “very concerning” accounts, “which have in fact continued to mount.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that his government was trying to verify the exact number of citizens who had been forcibly deported, alleging that Russia was trying to forcibly conscript many into its army. That followed a March 22 statement from Ukraine’s defense minister stating that Russia was forcing men in occupied territories of Ukraine to conscript as “cannon fodder.”
On Thursday, Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman said prosecutors were investigating the “illegal deportation” of more than 2,000 children to Russia.
She said Ukrainians have been taken to different cities across Russia, citing the case of a family from the left bank of Mariupol who were taken out of a bomb shelter, loaded onto buses and taken to the Russian city of Taganrog. After being interrogated by Russian intelligence, she said, they were put on another train.
“They last got in touch with us on March 20,” she added.
Moscow ‘plotting to seal off Crimea’ to stop ‘panicking Russians’ from fleeing
Kate Buck – March 24, 2022
Vladimir Putin is prepare to seal off Crimea and block the exit of Russias fleeing the invasion, Ukrainian intelligence officials have claimed. (Getty)
Ukrainian intelligence officials have claimed the Kremlin is preparing to seal off Crimea in order to block the exit of any “panicked” Russians trying to flee.
In 2014, Russia seized Ukraine’s southern peninsula of Crimea, an area of significant strategic importance in an invasion which marked what one Western intelligence official described as the “creeping militarisation” of the Black Sea.
While Nato and the international community deemed the annexation illegal, they failed to stop it and Moscow has since established two federal “subjects” in the area – the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol.
View on the globe zoomed on Ukraine(light blue) and western part of Russia (red)
Eight years on and Putin mounted a full scale invasion of Ukraine, in an apparent attempt to annex more land in the east of the country, specifically the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
However, Western officials believe the invasion is not going to plan, with Moscow frustrated by the lack of progress. The war has sparked numerous protests across Russia.
On Wednesday, the intelligence department of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence claimed in a Facebook post that the Kremlin plans to block bridges, ferries and air connections from the mainland to Crimea in order to prevented panicking Russians from fleeing the region.
The post said Russia is now holding 600,000 Russian citizens “hostage” who are “illegally on the peninsula”.
The statement said: “Putin’s authorities are trying to react to panic moods among Russian citizens who illegally moved to Ukrainian Crimea after February 2014.
A mental hospital hit by the Russian shelling in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine (Getty)
“The occupants seek to stop the flow of refugees from the peninsula.”
It added that families of Russian officers and officials in Sevastopol have “urgently” sold real estate and are removing assets from the peninsula.
These claims have not been verified, however it is clear that there is some anger aimed at Putin’s invasion in the Russian homeland.
On 4 March, Moscow enacted two laws that criminalised independent war reporting and protesting the war, with penalties of up to 15 years in prison.
Three days after those laws came into force police reportedly detained more than 4,300 protesters in 56 different cities, according to the OVD-Info independent protest monitoring group.
Some Russian state-controlled media carried short reports about the protests but they did not feature high in news bulletins.
Russia’s RIA news agency said the Manezhnaya Square in Moscow, adjoining the Kremlin, had been “liberated” by police, who had arrested some participants of an unsanctioned protest against the military operation in Ukraine.
The last Russian protests with a similar number of arrests were in January 2021, when thousands demanded the release of opposition leader Alexei Navalny after he was arrested on returning from Germany where he had been recovering from a nerve agent poisoning.
The anonymous officer said that battlefield casualties suffered by Russia are thought to total between 30,000 and 40,000 since Putin launched his invasion on February 24.
On Thursday, British military intelligence said that “Russian forces have almost certainly suffered thousands of casualties during their invasion of Ukraine.”
In an effort to bolster their troops, Russia is likely looking at bringing reservists and conscription, further intelligence has suggested.
An update added: “Russia is likely now looking to mobilize its reservist and conscript manpower, as well as private military companies and foreign mercenaries, to replace these considerable losses.”
Putin’s ‘Achilles heel’ in Ukraine is Russians believing their ‘soldiers are dying unnecessarily,’ CNN says
Peter Weber, Senior editor – March 24, 2022
Soviet Russia finally pulled out of Afghanistan because fierce Afghan resistance, fueled by U.S.-provided Stinger missiles, was eating away at Russian forces, eventually resulting in 15,000 Russian deaths. “Today the death toll of Russian troops in Ukraine could already match those killed over 10 years in Afghanistan,” CNN’s Nic Robertson reported early Thursday, citing NATO estimates.
“Afghan parallels with today’s war in Ukraine are clear,” Robertson said. “Russia’s enemies, if not Russia, have learned the lessons of the Afghan war.”
“Across dozens of Russian cities, more than 15,000 people have been arrested for protesting the war,” Robertson said. “Recently, anxious parents of troops have begun showing up. Putin’s Achilles heel is the perception soldiers are dying unnecessarily. It’s why he’s tightened reporting laws and swamped Russia with Kremlin propaganda, and it’s why the Ukrainian military shows off battlefield gains — like knocking out Russian tanks or captured Russian soldiers — because they know bad press back home is what the Red Army out of Afghanistan.”
Thus far, Kremlin-friendly media has rarely strayed from the party line. So, for example, this drone footage of Mariupol after weeks of relentless Russian bombing and airstrikes is “shocking” proof on CNN of Russia’s scorched-earth campaign of punishing and killing Ukrainian civilians to achieve otherwise unattainable territorial gains.
On Russian state TV, it is portrayed as Ukrainian forces burning down their own house to thwart the Russians.
But there are signs of low morale among Russian forces in Ukraine, reported to be suffering from frostbite and hunger, not just stalemate and high casualties. And the morale problems aren’t just among Russian ground troops and field officers in Ukraine, CNN says, pointing to a report it obtained by U.S. military attachés in Moscow who “casually inquired” about a Russian major general’s Ukrainian family roots and were shocked when the general’s “stoic demeanor suddenly became flushed and agitated.”
Microplastics have been found in air, water, food and now … human blood
Mike Snider – March 25, 2022
Powerful magnification allowed researchers to count and identify microplastic beads and fragments that were collected in 11 western national parks and wilderness areas over 14 months of sampling in a 2020 study.
Plastic – it’s in your blood. And we know so because researchers have just found microscopic plastic particles flowing in our bloodstream for the first time.
“It’s the first step for proper risk assessment … (of) the internal concentrations of plastic particles,” Dick Vethaak, professor of ecotoxicology, water quality and health at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Hague, the Netherlands, told USA TODAY. Vethaak is among the authors of a study published Thursday in the peer-reviewed journal Environment International.
Plastic particles were found in the blood of more than three-fourths (17 out of 22) of the Netherlands-based donors who participated in the study. Of course, knowing there is plastic in the blood of many people just leads to more questions for researchers to tackle.
“We have to find out where are these particles traveling. Do they accumulate in certain organs?” Vethaak said. “Are (accumulations) sufficiently high enough to trigger responses leading to diseases?”
Plastic particles can enter the body through your food and drink, the air you breathe – there are microscopic plastic bits flying around in the air – and even from the rain.
Finding signs of plastic in the blood
Researchers analyzed subjects’ blood samples for traces of the presence of different polymers, which are the building blocks of plastics. Most prominent was polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a common type of plastic used in making drink bottles, food packaging and fabrics, and even lip gloss.
The second most commonly found plastic in the samples: polystyrene, used to make a wide variety of common household products including disposable bowls, plates and food containers, and what we call styrofoam.
The third most likely plastic found in subjects’ blood was polyethylene, a material regularly used in the production of paints, sandwich bags, shopping bags, plastic wrap and detergent bottles, and in toothpaste.
Polypropylene, used in making food containers and rugs, was also found in subjects’ blood, but at concentrations too low for an accurate measurement.
Did you know?
Humans have produced 18.2 trillion pounds of plastics – the equivalent to 1 billion elephants – since large-scale plastic production began in the early 1950s. Nearly 80% of that plastic is now in landfills, researchers say. By 2050, another 26.5 trillion pounds will be produced worldwide.
Plastic flowing into the world’s oceans, rivers and lakes will increase from 11 million metric tons in 2016 to 29 million metric tons annually in 2040, the equivalent of dumping 70 pounds of plastic waste along every foot of the world’s coastline, according to research from The Pew Charitable Trusts.
Powerful magnification allowed researchers to count and identify microplastic beads and fragments that were collected in 11 western national parks and wilderness areas over 14 months of sampling in a 2020 study.
The overall concentration of plastic particles in the donor’s blood averaged 1.6 micrograms, or one-millionth of a gram – the equivalent to one teaspoon of plastic per the amount of water in ten large bathtubs, researchers say.
That’s not much, but researchers only searched for a few plastic polymers. And plastic particles may be in different concentrations in different parts of the body.
Researchers particularly wonder whether microplastics – or even smaller particles called nanoplastics – could affect the brain, digestive system and other parts of the body. Could they help cancers develop or grow?
“More detailed research … is urgently needed,” Vethaak and other researchers say in a separate article published this week in the peer-reviewed journal Exposure and Health. “The problem is becoming more urgent with each day.”
More foods including fruits and vegetables may contain microplastics, too. Previous research found that infants may ingest 10 times the amount of microplastics that adults do, based on a 2021 study comparing adult and infant feces. Babies could have higher microplastics exposures from bottles and baby toys, researchers suggest.
Microplastics will continue to spread because plastic production is only increasing, said Jo Royle, CEO of Common Seas, an organization targeting plastic pollution in the oceans. Common Seas, along with the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, commissioned the research. “We need to hurry up and invest in the research to be able to understand what threats plastics pose to human health,” Royle told USA TODAY.
She said her blood, and that of Vethaak’s, was analyzed and found to have plastics in the bloodstream but was not included in the published research. “To find this plastic in my blood, it is concerning,” Royle said.
With research, “we can make informed choices,” she said. “But there’s a lot of steps that we can take each day to reduce our exposure to single-use plastics and particularly food and beverage packaging.”
After Ukraine, Vladimir Putin Is Beyond Redemption
March 25, 2022
After Ukraine, Vladimir Putin Is Beyond Redemption
Continuing from Part 1, John Heilemann talks with international affairs and national security guru Tom Nichols about the debate over whether Russian President Vladimir Putin’s behavior and rhetoric suggest that he is losing touch with reality and becoming unhinged. Nichols argues that Putin has reached a “point of no return” given the mounting civilian casualties in Ukraine, President’s Biden’s recent characterization of Putin as a war criminal, and Russia’s increasing isolation on the world stage. They also discuss Biden’s successful rallying of NATO allies – as the president meets with European leaders in Brussels this week about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – as well as the difficult decisions facing Biden and the NATO alliance as Zelenskyy warns that we may already have entered World War III. Tune in to the full episode to hear about Nichols’s proud status as a five-time, undefeated Jeopardy champion, and his well-known – and well-deserved – reputation for having indefensibly and inexplicably bad taste in music.
Related:
Yahoo! News
What is the punishment for a war criminal?
James Morris, Freelance news writer, Yahoo UK – March 25, 2022
Vladimir Putin, pictured holding a meeting on Friday, has been accused of war crimes. (Getty Images)
The UK government has said “all options are on the table” when it comes to seeking to prosecute Russian president Vladimir Putin’s regime for war crimes amid the Ukraine crisis.
Preliminary international probes have already begun following Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which has seen more than 1,000 civilians killed and millions of people displaced from their homes.
But what is a war crime, how are they prosecuted and what is the punishment? Here, Yahoo News UK explains.
What is a war crime?
There is not actually an agreed definition. As the United Nations points out, “there is no one single document in international law that codifies all war crimes”.
But the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), where war crimes can be prosecuted (see further information below), follows the definition set out by the 1949 Geneva Conventions, which were ratified by 196 states.
This definition includes acts of:
wilful killing
torture or inhuman treatment
wilfully causing great suffering or serious injury
extensive destruction and appropriation of property which is not justified by military necessity
compelling a prisoner of war to serve in the forces of a hostile state
wilfully depriving a prisoner of war of the rights of fair and regular trial
unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement
taking of hostages
However, the Rome Statute also includes an extensive list of further specific violations, such as intentionally directing attacks against civilian populations, using child soldiers, forced pregnancy and intentionally directing attacks against hospitals.
How are war crimes prosecuted?
War crimes can be prosecuted at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague in the Netherlands. This court is governed by the Rome Statute outlined above.
The ICC, which began operations in 2002, “investigates and, where warranted, tries individuals charged with the gravest crimes of concern to the international community”. This includes war crimes as well as genocide, crimes against humanity and the crime of aggression.
It is a “court of last resort” and a case will only be heard there when a national court is not in a position to address it.
After gathering evidence and identifying a suspect, ICC prosecutors can request judges to issue arrest warrants. It relies on countries to carry out the arrest and a trial cannot begin until a suspect is detained and transferred to the court.
Twenty-seven defendants have been accused of war crimes by the ICC, with three – Ahmad Al Faqi Al Mahdi, Germain Katanga and Thomas Lubanga Dylio – convicted. A further eight are currently in ICC custody awaiting trial or appealing proceedings.
What is the punishment for war crimes?
At the trial, the prosecution “must prove beyond reasonable doubt the guilt of the accused” before three judges.
If found guilty, the judges can issue sentences of up to 30 years’ imprisonment, or a life sentence “under exceptional circumstances”.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, Netherlands. (Reuters)
Sentences are served in countries that have agreed to enforce ICC prison terms.
Verdicts are subject to appeal by the defence of the accused, as well as by the prosecution.
Has Putin committed war crimes in Ukraine?
Putin hasn’t been formally accused of war crimes by the ICC, though it launched an investigation earlier this month following referrals from 41 countries.
But Putin’s bombardment of major cities including Kyiv and Mariupol, including strikes on hospitals and civilian evacuation routes, have seen leaders around the world accuse Putin of having committed war crimes.
Boris Johnson said on Thursday: “It is right that Russia should now be called before the International Court of Justice and right that President Putin should appear before the International Criminal Court. There is no question that what they are doing is war crimes.”
Boris Johnson gives a press conference during a Nato summit in Brussels, Belgium. He says the UK is bolstering support for Nato and the UK will ramp up legal aid for Ukraine.
In his most recent statement on the probe on 10 March, ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan said: “I note, in particular, that if attacks are intentionally directed against the civilian population: that is a crime. If attacks are intentionally directed against civilian objects: that is a crime. I strongly urge parties to the conflict to avoid the use of heavy explosive weapons in populated areas.
“There is no legal justification, there is no excuse, for attacks which are indiscriminate, or which are disproportionate in their effects on the civilian population.”
Could Putin be prosecuted for alleged war crimes in Ukraine?
David Scheffer, who was the first US ambassador-at-large for war crimes under the Clinton administration, told Foreign Policy on Thursday it is “inevitable” Putin will be indicted at the ICC. “He is at the very top of the command chain in Russia.
“He has obviously failed as top commander to stop those crimes from being committed on a daily basis. He has the power to do it.”
However, as outlined above, hearings cannot begin until a suspect is arrested and transferred to the ICC.
And while the court could well accuse Putin of war crimes, asking Russia to arrest its all-powerful dictator is another matter altogether.
Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine – A War Expert’s Analysis
John Heilemann talks with international affairs and national security guru Tom Nichols, contributing writer at The Atlantic, longtime senior faculty member at the U.S. Naval War College, and author of eight books on foreign policy and politics, including, most recently, Our Own Worst Enemy: The Assault from Within on Modern Democracy. Heilemann and Nichols assess Vladimir Putin’s calculations in the face of the Russian military’s inability to win a swift and decisive victory, how President Zelenskyy has wielded a masterful media strategy to galvanize support around the world and dominate the information battlefield; and the difficult decisions facing Joe Biden and the NATO alliance as Zelenskyy warns that we may already have entered World War III. Nichols also discusses his proud status as a five-time, undefeated Jeopardy champion, and his well-known – and well-deserved – reputation for having inexplicably bad taste in music.
Related:
The Recount
Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine – A War Expert’s Analysis
March 24, 2022
John Heilemann talks with international affairs and national security guru Tom Nichols, contributing writer at The Atlantic, longtime senior faculty member at the U.S. Naval War College, and author of eight books on foreign policy and politics, including, most recently, Our Own Worst Enemy: The Assault from Within on Modern Democracy. Heilemann and Nichols assess the state of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s calculations in the face of the Russian military’s inability to win a swift and decisive victory, and the emerging consensus in the West that war has reached what could prove to be a protracted and bloody stalemate; how President Zelenskyy has wielded a masterful media strategy to galvanize support around the world and dominate the information battlefield; and the difficult decisions facing Joe Biden and the NATO alliance as Zelenskyy warns that we may already have entered World War III. Nichols also discusses his proud status as a five-time, undefeated Jeopardy champion, and his well-known – and well-deserved – reputation for having indefensibly and inexplicably bad taste in music.
Mariupol officials say 300 dead in Russian airstrike on theater
Dylan Stableford, Senior Writer – March 25, 2022
Ukrainian officials said Friday that they now believe as many as 300 people may have been killed in the bombing of a theater in Mariupol on March 16.
The Mariupol City Council said it relied on witness accounts to estimate the death toll from the attack, which has been difficult to gather due to constant bombardment of the besieged city.
“From witnesses comes information that about 300 people died in the Mariupol Drama Theatre as a result of the bombing by a Russian plane,” the City Council said in a statement. “Up until the very last moment, one does not want to believe this horror. But the words of those who were inside the building at the time of this terrorist act says the opposite.”
City officials had said that about 130 people were rescued from the rubble. Video footage taken in the wake of the attack showed massive devastation inside the theater as people covered in dust and debris tried to escape.
The theater was being used as one of the main shelters in Mariupol, which has been pummeled by airstrikes in recent weeks.
The destroyed theater, which was being used as a shelter by civilians, in Mariupol, Ukraine. (Ukrainian Interior Ministry/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
According to the United Nations human rights office, at least 1,081 civilians have been killed and another 1,707 wounded in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, though the agency believes the actual death toll is likely much higher.
Russia has denied targeting civilians.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week that the United States has officially determined that members of Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine.
“Since launching his unprovoked and unjust war of choice, Russian President Vladimir Putin has unleashed unrelenting violence that has caused death and destruction across Ukraine,” Blinken said Wednesday. “We’ve seen numerous credible reports of indiscriminate attacks and attacks deliberately targeting civilians, as well as other atrocities.
“The deliberate targeting of civilians is a war crime,” he said.
Insider Marie Yovanovitch says it will take a ‘concentrated effort over a number of years’ to undo the ‘damage’ that Mike Pompeo did to the State Department
Sonam Sheth,Nicole Gaudiano – March 25, 2022
Representative Mike Pompeo (R-KS) testifies before a Senate Intelligence hearing on his nomination of to be become director of the CIA at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., January 12, 2017.REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Yovanovitch told Insider that it will take “years” to undo the “damage” Pompeo did to the State Department.
He “presided over the hollowing out of a great institution,” she said.
The former ambassador accused Pompeo of being a hypocrite in her memoir and wondered if the State Department would “survive the betrayals of the Pompeo years.”
Marie Yovanovitch, the former US ambassador told Ukraine, told Insider in a wide-ranging interview that it will take “years” to reverse the damage that former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did to the State Department.
Pompeo “presided over the hollowing out of a great institution,” Yovanovitch told Insider. She added that Donald Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, “started it and Pompeo continued it, so there’s is lasting damage.”
President Joe Biden’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, made a commitment to following the rule of law, protecting diplomats and foreign service officers, and promoting US policy abroad when he took the helm at the department.
But “it takes a concentrated effort over a number of years not only to knit the fabric of the State Department back together again, but to give it the kinds of resources that are necessary for our diplomacy,” Yovanovitch told Insider.
The former ambassador didn’t mince words about her view of Pompeo in her new memoir, “Lessons From The Edge.” She struck a blunt tone when she said that Pompeo’s “hypocrisy was galling” and wondered if the State Department would “survive the betrayals of the Pompeo years.”
Yovanovitch was abruptly recalled from her post in Ukraine in April 2019 following a concerted smear campaign against her by Trump’s allies, led by his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. In her book, Yovanovitch discussed her pleas for the State Department, and Pompeo himself, to publicly support her against Giuliani’s efforts to discredit her work in Ukraine and bogus allegations that she was a partisan Obama holdover.
But Pompeo failed to protect her from the White House, Yovanovitch later testified to Congress. She was one of more than a dozen witnesses to testify at Trump’s first impeachment inquiry in late 2019. It centered around his efforts to strongarm the Ukrainian government into launching bogus political investigations into the Biden family while withholding vital security assistance and a White House meeting.
When congressional staffers began contacting her in mid-August 2019 — shortly before the impeachment inquiry was launched — to discuss “Ukraine-related” matters, Yovanovitch started thinking about hiring a lawyer.
“Although the department lawyers usually tried to watch out for State personnel, their job was to protect State’s interests, not mine,” she wrote. “I was a team player, but the past six months had shown me that I could no longer trust the coach.”
She also wrote that it was ironic that Pompeo pledged to work with “uncompromising personal and professional integrity” after being unable to guard her against Giuliani and Trump’s attacks on her. She recalled, in particular, the day that she flew back to Washington, DC, from Kyiv after being abruptly fired without cause.
The same day, Pompeo unveiled an “ethos statement” at the State Department “with great fanfare,” the memoir says. In addition to promising to work with “uncompromising personal and professional integrity,” the statement also promised to “show ‘unstinting respect in word and deed for my colleagues,'” Yovanovitch writes.
“Every Foreign Service officer I knew agreed with these points, but coming from Pompeo, the irony was too much to handle,” the book says. “We were all tired of Pompeo’s talk. We just wanted him to walk the walk. He didn’t need to swagger.”
Looking forward, the former ambassador told Insider that the way the US conducts diplomacy needs to be overhauled, in the same way that the US military reformed after the Vietnam War and intelligence services did after the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Diplomacy in 2022 needs to “meet the challenges of the 21st century in a way that reflects many of the tools that we’ve got now that we didn’t have back in the day,” she said. One example she highlighted is the advent of social media and how journalists, activists, and governments use it to spread awareness about key issues of the day.
“When we respond on social media, we don’t have to have it approved by, you know, 20 different people in Washington, but we can be more nimble and more effective,” Yovanovitch said.
Exclusive-Russian missiles in Ukraine have failure rate of up to 60%, U.S. officials say
Phil Stewart – March 24, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in Kharkiv
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion.
Since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russia has failed to achieve basic objectives such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force despite a vastly larger armed forces.
The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not provide evidence to support the assessment and did not disclose what precisely was driving high Russian missile failure rates.
Reuters was unable to independently verify the figures.
Though Reuters could not determine what a standard failure rate would be for air-launched cruise missiles, two experts interviewed by Reuters said any failure rate of 20% and above would be considered high.
The Kremlin says that what it calls a “special military operation” is going to plan and that Russia will achieve all of its aims. It casts the United States as an “empire of lies” which has unleashed an information war on Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined immediate comment and suggested Reuters approach the defense ministry which did not immediately respond to phone calls and a written request for comment.
In recent days, Russia’s defense ministry has lauded the professionalism and missile technology of the armed forces. It says claims of failures are misleading propaganda distributed by Russia’s enemies headed by the United States.
MISSILE FAILURES
U.S. defense officials told reporters this week that the Pentagon assesses that Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles of all kinds since the war began. The U.S. officials have so far not said how many of those hit their targets and how many failed to do so.
Citing U.S. intelligence, three U.S. officials said the United States estimated that Russia’s failure rate varied day-to-day, depended on the type of missile being launched, and could sometimes exceed 50%. Two of them said it reached as high as 60%.
One of the officials said the intelligence showed that Russia’s air-launched cruise missiles had a failure rate in the 20% to 60% range, depending on the day.
Russia has been seen fielding two types of air-launched cruise missiles in Ukraine, the Kh-555 and Kh-101, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank’s Missile Defense Project.
Failures can include anything from launch failures to a missile failing to explode on impact.
The United States believes Russia fired air-launched cruise missiles from Russian airspace earlier this month when it attacked a Ukrainian military base near the Polish border, and one of the U.S. officials told Reuters there was a particularly high failure rate during this attack. The strike killed 35 people, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Missile attacks have been a feature of Russia’s invasion, with Russia announcing strikes against military targets including weapons depots.
The invasion has killed thousands and driven a quarter of Ukraine’s 44 million people from their homes. The bombardment has hit residential areas, schools and hospitals in Ukrainian cities including Kharkiv and the besieged port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov.
Russia says the operation was necessary because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia while Russian speakers were being persecuted in Ukraine. Moscow denies it is targeting civilians.
(Reporting by Phil Stewart; Additional reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mary Milliken and Daniel Wallis; Editing by Toby Chopra)
Related:
The Week
Up to 60 percent of Russian missiles in Ukraine are failing, U.S. assesses
Peter Weber, Senior editor – March 25, 2022
Unexploded Russian missile in Ukraine Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images
Russia has been trying to make up for its setbacks on the ground in Ukraine with missiles and bombs, and the Russians have launched at least 1,200 missiles “of all stripes and sizes” in the first 28 days of their invasion, a senior U.S. defense official said Wednesday. But not all of those missiles are hitting their marks. Three U.S. officials told Reuters on Thursday that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60 percent for some of the precision-guided missiles it’s using to attack Ukraine.
“Such a high failure rate can include anything from launch failures to a missile failing to explode on impact,” Reuters reports. “The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve what most could consider basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force, despite the apparent strength of its military against Ukraine’s much smaller armed forces.”
The failure rate for Russia’s missiles varies from day to day and depends on the type of missile being launched, the U.S. officials told Reuters, citing U.S. intelligence. Air-launched cruise missiles, for example, are failing at a rate of 20 percent to 60 percent. Two experts told Reuters that any failure rate above 20 percent would be considered high.
But Russia still has “the vast majority of their assembled available inventory of surface-to-air missiles and cruise missiles available to them,” the senior Pentagon official said Wednesday. “I mean, they’ve expended a lot, but they put a lot into the effort. And they still have an awful lot left.”
And even 40 percent of 1,200 missiles would do a lot of damage. On Friday, Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that Russia destroyed “the largest of the remaining fuel depot of the Ukrainian armed forces,” outside Kyiv with “sea-launched Kalibr precision cruise missiles.”
Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine isn’t impressing the Pentagon. “I think with a high degree of certainty that Russia will emerge from Ukraine weaker than it went into the conflict,” Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl said Thursday. “Militarily weaker, economically weaker, politically and geopolitically weaker, and more isolated.” Kahl added that an upcoming Pentagon defense strategy document would asses Russia as an “acute threat” that, unlike China, poses no long-term systems challenge to the U.S.
Related:
Business Insider
As many as 60% of Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine are failing to launch or don’t explode on impact, US officials say
Sophia Ankel – March 25, 2022
An unexploded tail section of a 300mm missile which appear to contain cluster bombs is embedded in the ground after shelling on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv, on March 21, 2022.Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images
Russia has used more than 1,100 missiles in Ukraine since its invasion last month, Reuters reported.
But missiles used by Russia are seeing failure rates as high as 60%, US officials said.
The officials were not able to provide Reuters with evidence of their assessment.
As many as 60% of Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine fail to launch or don’t explode on impact, three US officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue, told Reuters.
The Pentagon believes that Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles since its full invasion of Ukraine just over a month ago, US officials told reporters this week, according to Reuters.
But the precision-guided missiles, including air-launched cruise missiles, fired by Russian forces are seeing failure rates as high as 60%, two of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. One official estimated the rate could be as high as 50%.
The officials said that the failure rate depended on the type of missile being launched and varied day-to-day. They did not say why the rate could be so high, nor did they provide Reuters with any evidence of their assessment.
Since the start of the conflict, images of Russian missiles and bombs lodged in Ukraine’s streets and buildings have emerged online. Insider was unable to verify them.
This tactic has been used before by Ukrainian forces, focusing on repairing damaged Russian equipment captured in the fighting and then sending them back into battle.
German farmers Tim Nandelstädt (centre) and Torben Reelfs (right) push ahead with their crop planting in Ukraine despite Russia’s invasion (AFP/Tim NANDELSTAEDT)
War has come to Ukraine but German farmers Torben Reelfs and Tim Nandelstaedt are planting the first sugar beets of the season on their plot of land in western Ukraine (AFP/Tim NANDELSTAEDT)
