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Daily Beast

Lonely Putin Is Losing Control of His Own Spiraling Minions

Shannon Vavra – April 14, 2022

After a series of embarrassing setbacks in trying to capture Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, over the past 40-odd days, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ultimately decided to have his forces retreat, and regroup to go after eastern Ukraine. But his cronies can’t seem to get the picture straight.

Putin loyalist Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic—also known as Putin’s “foot soldier”—said on his Telegram account this week that Russia will still be working to take Kyiv.

We will “take Kyiv and all other cities,” Kadyrov said.

The picture on the ground is far different, though. With Russian forces failing to take Kyiv, they left and abandoned that goal, instead focusing on the east. As recently as Tuesday this week, a senior U.S. defense official confirmed in a briefing that Russia is still focusing on the eastern portions of Ukraine.

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In all fairness, Russia is working to take eastern portions of Ukraine, which Kadyrov mentioned as well. But for the moment, his messaging seems way off from Putin’s current planning process.

But this isn’t a function of a war dragging on and messaging getting lost in the fog. The list of mishaps and communications not going according to plan goes back months. In mid-March, Kadyrov claimed he and Chechen forces were near Kyiv—a claim Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov flat-out denied. And during a now notorious meeting with Russia’s Presidential Security Council in February, Putin lashed out at the chief of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin, when Naryshkin spoke about Russia’s policy towards eastern Ukraine in a way that apparently irked Putin. Naryshkin hesitated and stammered his way through his words, molding them to Putin’s will as they went—and as Putin continually interrupted him.

The trouble might be self-inflicted, at least in part. Putin has isolated himself from his advisers while waging a war that is, unlike any war in Europe before, being documented in real time on social media. All eyes are on Putin and his cronies’ every move. And for Putin’s Russia, which isn’t built for transparency or message coordination and rollout, the fumbles are glaringly obvious.

“The Russians don’t practice this. It’s not an open society, they don’t talk to the press—they don’t even attempt to be transparent. Undoubtedly because it’s such a stovepiped system and they don’t have much experience or use in talking to the press it’s inevitable they’d be working at cross-purposes,” Douglas London, a former CIA chief of station, told The Daily Beast. “Putin is very much a stovepiped decision-maker in terms of how he delegates power and authority.”

Examining what Putin wants to do next in the war is like a game of Russian roulette—and many, even in Putin’s inner circle, are just throwing out ideas they think might stick, or that might align with what Putin wants, even if they have no clue what he’s thinking, according to Anton Barbashin, a Russian political analyst.

“Among the many decision-makers or elites in Russia… only a few have a clear-cut understanding of what is actually happening [including] what’s the strategy and how it evolves. We never know who exactly knows the situation,” Barbashin told The Daily Beast. “There’s just a lot of people speculating on how they understand the situation.”

Some of the fudged messages coming from advisers are tied to their interest in vying for attention from Putin and trying to show him just how loyal and useful they can be in the war.

“It’s essentially a competition to prove to the Kremlin, ‘Look, this version is better for Russia and I’m ready to execute it. I’m ready to be that institution that you can rely on to solve your problems,’” Barbashin said. “They’re showing specifically their loyalty to the Kremlin, to Putin, to the cause. And they’re trying to compete.”

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An increasingly isolated and rage-filled Putin has found himself surrounded by advisers too scared to tell him things were not going well on the battlefield, though, leading him to have an inaccurate picture of the war, which may also contribute to bad messaging, according to top Biden administration officials.

“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions, because his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth,” White House Communications Director Kate Bedingfield told reporters in a briefing last month.

Putin has cordoned himself off so much in recent months that it’s not clear anyone knows what Moscow’s next move will be.

“Generally speaking it is very hard to understand even for them, what is the decision… because the Kremlin doesn’t know yet,” Barbashin said. “That has been a Kremlin thing for decades now to work several options at the same time [and] depending on the circumstances choosing one.”

The messages from Kadyrov need to be taken with a sizable grain of salt because he is essentially operating as a kind of vassal ally to Russia—one with his own personal goals and interest in maintaining a foothold in Russian power circles.

“He’s a very special kind of duck in this mix,” Barbashin said. “The way he’s been engaged in this war, the way he is participating, is kind of like he’s acting on its own.”

Putin’s war has encountered a whole slew of other problems that have tripped Putin and his cronies up. Putin’s forces, for one, struggled to take Kyiv, a situation that “frustrated” Putin, according to a CIA analysis shared with U.S. lawmakers. A senior defense official said in briefings last month that a column of Russian forces was stalling outside of Kyiv due to failures of resourcing and a lack of fuel. Russian command and control has been a mess. And officials have been scratching their heads at why Russia launched a series of cyberattacks on Ukrainian banks and websites in advance of the invasion—but have largely failed to run a flurry of successful hacks while waging war in Ukraine, a move which some analysts say could have made their invasion more chaotic for Ukrainians, and lent an advantage to Russia.

U.S. intelligence officials eventually realized it wasn’t clear if Putin had a top military commander in charge of running the war in Ukraine, according to CNN. Units running different operations around Ukraine weren’t communicating with each other, making for a poor distribution of resources and lack of coordination, officials said.

Putin appears to know that he might need more coordination if he is going to walk away with any “positive” news to bring back to Russia. As Russia has retreated from Kyiv and works to regroup and refocus on the eastern portions of Ukraine, Russia is tapping Aleksandr Dvornikov, the chief of staff of Russia’s Central Military District, to be the top commander in Ukraine. And a military convoy north of Izyum might be poised to provide more logistics support to the offensive in eastern Ukraine, as a way to make up for lack of preparation earlier, a senior U.S. defense official said in a briefing Tuesday.

But this little bit of optics play—announcing a new leader—isn’t likely to overhaul the disorganized way the war is going for Russia, in particular because the military is just not equipped for an overarching command structure right now, London said.

“I don’t think it’s going to make for an immediate solution to a lot of the problems they’re having, particularly in terms of logistics, command control, and… morale,” London told The Daily Beast. “They may now have said they’ve got this overall battlefield commander… I don’t necessarily know it’s going to quite roll out that way because they’re not organized to work that way. They’re not organized to function in this overall very organized chain of command.”

Air Force Times

Russian military’s damaged Black Sea flagship sinks

Adam Schreck, The Associated Press – April 14, 2022

KYIV, Ukraine — The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, a guided-missile cruiser that became a potent target of Ukrainian defiance in the opening days of the war, sank Thursday after it was heavily damaged in the latest setback for Moscow’s invasion.

Ukrainian officials said their forces hit the vessel with missiles, while Russia acknowledged a fire aboard the Moskva but no attack. U.S. and other Western officials could not confirm what caused the blaze.

The loss of the warship named for the Russian capital is a devastating symbolic defeat for Moscow as its troops regroup for a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine after retreating from much of the north, including the capital.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the ship sank in a storm while being towed to a port. Russia earlier said the flames on the ship, which would typically have 500 sailors on board, forced the entire crew to evacuate. It later said the blaze had been contained and that the ship would be towed to port with its missile launchers intact.

The ship can carry 16 long-range cruise missiles, and its removal from combat reduces Russia’s firepower in the Black Sea. It’s also a blow to Russian prestige in a war already widely seen as a historic blunder. Now entering its eighth week, Russia’s invasion has stalled because of resistance from Ukrainian fighters bolstered by weapons and other aid sent by Western nations.

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The news of the flagship’s damage overshadowed Russian claims of advances in the southern port city of Mariupol, where they have been battling the Ukrainians since the early days of the invasion in some of the heaviest fighting of the war — at a horrific cost to civilians.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Wednesday that 1,026 Ukrainian troops surrendered at a metals factory in the city. But Vadym Denysenko, adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister, rejected the claim, telling Current Time TV that “the battle over the seaport is still ongoing today.”

It was unclear how many forces were still defending Mariupol.

Russian state television broadcast footage that it said was from Mariupol showing dozens of men in camouflage walking with their hands up and carrying others on stretchers. One man held a white flag.

Mariupol’s capture is critical for Russia because it would allow its forces in the south, which came up through the annexed Crimean Peninsula, to fully link up with troops in the eastern Donbas region, Ukraine’s industrial heartland and the target of the coming offensive.

The Russian military continues to move helicopters and other equipment together for such a effort, according to a senior U.S. defense official, and it will likely add more ground combat units “over coming days.” But it’s still unclear when Russia could launch a bigger offensive in the Donbas.

Moscow-backed separatists have been battling Ukraine in the Donbas since 2014, the same year Russia seized Crimea. Russia has recognized the independence of the rebel regions in the Donbas.

The loss of the Moskva could delay any new, wide-ranging offensive.

Maksym Marchenko, the governor of the Odesa region, across the Black Sea to the northwest of Sevastopol, said the Ukrainians struck the ship with two Neptune missiles and caused “serious damage.”

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, called it an event of “colossal significance.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry said ammunition on board detonated as a result of a fire, without saying what caused the blaze. It said the “main missile weapons” were not damaged. In addition to the cruise missiles, the warship also had air-defense missiles and other guns.

The Neptune is an anti-ship missile that was recently developed by Ukraine and based on an earlier Soviet design. The launchers are mounted on trucks stationed near the coast, and, according to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, the missiles can hit targets up to 280 kilometers (175 miles) away. That would have put the Moskva within range, based on where the fire began.

The U.S. was not able to confirm Ukraine’s claims of striking the warship, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Thursday. Still, he called it “a big blow to Russia.”

“They’ve had to kind of choose between two stories: One story is that it was just incompetence, and the other was that they came under attack, and neither is a particular the good outcome for them,” Sullivan told the Economic Club of Washington.

During the first days of the war, The Moskva was reportedly the warship that called on Ukrainian soldiers stationed on Snake Island in the Black Sea to surrender in a standoff. In a widely circulated recording, the soldier responds: “Russian warship, go (expletive) yourself.”

The AP could not independently verify the incident, but Ukraine and its supporters consider it an iconic moment of defiance. The country recently unveiled a postage stamp commemorating it.

Russia invaded on Feb. 24 and has lost potentially thousands of fighters. The conflict has killed untold numbers of Ukrainian civilians and forced millions more to flee.

It’s also further inflated prices at grocery stores and gasoline pumps because Ukraine and Russia are major producers of crops and energy, while dragging on the global economy. The head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the war helped push the organization to downgrade economic forecasts for 143 countries.

Also Thursday, Russian authorities accused Ukraine of sending two low-flying military helicopters across the border and firing on residential buildings in the village of Klimovo in Russia’s Bryansk region, some 11 kilometers (7 miles) from the frontier. Russia’s Investigative Committee said seven people, including a toddler, were wounded.

Russia’s state security service had earlier said Ukrainian forces fired mortar rounds at a border post in Bryansk as refugees were crossing, forcing them to flee.

The reports could not be independently verified. Earlier this month, Ukrainian security officials denied that Kyiv was behind an air strike on an oil depot in the Russian city of Belgorod, some 55 kilometers (35 miles) from the border.

Associated Press journalists around the world contributed to this report.

Business Insider

Russian ships are heading south as the Russian Black Fleet flagship battles ‘extensive’ fire, officials say

Christopher Woody, Abbie Shull – April 14, 2022

• Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva is battling an “extensive” fire following an explosion aboard, officials say.
• Ukrainians forces claim to have hit the ship with missiles, but Western official could not confirm that on Thursday.
• While the details remain unclear, the incident is seen as a significant blow to the Russian navy.

Russian Navy ships in the northern Black Sea have moved south as the Russian Black Fleet flagship, the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, battles a severe fire, Western officials said Thursday.

Ukrainian forces claim to have struck the Russian cruiser with a long-range missile launched from shore. Western officials say there is not yet enough information to attribute the fire to a specific cause, but the damage to the Russian flagship appears extensive and amounts to a “significant blow” against Russia’s navy.

US officials believe Moskva “has experienced significant damage” and that the ship is still “battling a fire, but we do not know the extent of the damage,” what caused that damage, or whether there are casualties, a senior US defense official told reporters on Thursday, speaking anonymously to describe developing events in Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials say their forces struck the Russian warship with Neptune anti-ship missiles. One official said the Moskva was “drowned.” Russian state media said Thursday that the warship was afloat, its main armaments were intact, and the fire had been localized, implying it has been contained to some area but perhaps not extinguished.

Western officials have called Ukraine’s claims “credible” and said the Russian account of a fire breaking out aboard was “difficult to believe,” but the US official wouldn’t rule out an accident.

“The risk of fire is ever present and potential for explosions are also ever present, particularly on a surface combatant, which is designed in this case for air defense,” the US defense official said, pointing to the munitions and fuel that a ship like Moskva would be carrying.

This would be the first known use of the Ukrainian-developed Neptune missiles. The Neptune is capable of striking land and sea targets within a 200-mile range. It’s the first mid-range cruise missile produced by Ukraine and designed primarily to strike warships, like the Moskva.

The cruiser was between 60 and 65 nautical miles south of the port city of Odesa when it experienced an explosion. “Sixty miles is well within the Neptune’s effective range but it also could have been something else,” the US official said.

The US official called the fire “extensive” and “significant” but said it’s unclear if there is damage to the hull. The warship does appear to be sailing east, however. “Our assumption is that she’ll be heading to Sevastopol for repairs, but that’s really all we can say,” the US official said.

Roughly a half-dozen ships were “fairly dispersed” in the northern Black Sea at the time of the explosion, according to the US official, who said that four or five those ships, which were “as close or closer” to the coast as the Moskva, “have all moved south.”

“At this point, we hold them no closer than about 80 nautical miles from the coast, but ships move and I can’t predict where there’ll be an hour from now,” the US official added.

That movement has raised speculation that Russian commanders are trying to increase the distance between their ships and Ukrainian coastal defenses, which are being bolstered by weaponry provided by Western countries.

The Moskva is perhaps best known for involvement in the attack on Ukraine’s Snake Island at the start of the Russian invasion. When asked by the Russian fleet to surrender, Ukrainian guards on the island were heard saying “Russian warship, go f— yourself.” Speaking Thursday, however, the US official couldn’t confirm that Moskva had been involved in that incident.

Since then, Moskva has been active around Odesa. The Russians have repeatedly sent landing ships toward the port but diverted them at the last moment, tying up Ukrainian forces in the area with threats of an assault.

While the circumstances are unclear, the damage to Moskva is significant for Russia, which will be unable to reinforce its ships in the Black Sea following Turkey’s closure of the sea to warships at the outset of the conflict.

Alessio Patalano, an expert on naval warfare in East Asia at King’s College London, called it “one of the most severe naval losses since the Falklands War.”

“Tonight Russian commanders will feel less secure as they reflect upon the fact that the [Black Sea] is no longer their lake. It’s a box with no way out,” Patalano said. “Things have got much harder.”

Yahoo! News

Putin nemesis Bill Browder reveals the ‘real money’ funding Kremlin’s war

Alexander Nazaryan, Senior W. H. Correspondent – April 14, 2022

NEW YORK — A trillion dollars: That’s how much money famed investor Bill Browder believes Vladimir Putin and Russian oligarchs have stolen from the Russian people since the fall of the Soviet Union.

“And that was money that was supposed to be spent on health care and education, roads and services,” Browder said at a Manhattan event to celebrate the publication of his second book, “Freezing Order,” which chronicles how he became a Putin nemesis as a result of his attempts to expose Kremlin corruption. Those efforts led to the death of Browder’s attorney Sergei Magnitsky, who was tortured in a Russian prison and whose name is affixed to sanctions bills passed by Congress.

Learning of Magnitsky’s death was “the most heartbreaking, traumatic, and devastating moment of my life,” Browder writes — and a sign of how committed Putin was willing to pursuing perceived enemies of the state. The grandson of American communist leader Earl Browder, Bill Browder had made billions through Hermitage Capital Management, the fund he started in 1996, during the chaotic period of full-contact Russian capitalism.

As Browder heightened scrutiny of some of the companies he invested in — most notably, energy giant Gazprom — he ran afoul of a Kremlin that, under Putin, has declared such questions off limits, as they would go to the very heart of the kleptocracy that had ruled Russia since the nation’s industry was sold off and plundered in the early 1990s.

“Everyone tries to think about Russia as a sovereign state and Putin as a leader acting in national interest,” Browder said to Yahoo News, describing that outlook as a fundamental misunderstanding. “You think you can apply political science to Russia. You need to apply criminal science. You need to be a criminologist to understand Russia. People don’t go into government to serve the country. They go into government to steal money.”

Browder was banned from entering Russia in 2005 and has since watched a series of American presidents try to improve relations with the Kremlin. He now lives in London, a city favored by the oligarchs he despises.

“We basically said, ‘It’s OK. We want your money. We want your oil,’” Browder told Yahoo News in an interview at the Century Club ahead of Tuesday’s book release party.

Today it is uncontroversial to call Putin a war criminal. But the man bombing Kharkiv is the same one who leveled the Chechen capital, Grozny, in 2000, invaded Georgia in 2008 and seized Ukrainian territory for the first time in 2014. “When I walked into the offices of government ministers in Europe, or the United States, back in the early days talking about sanctioning Russia — it’s like I walked in with a giant turd on my head,” Browder said.

Today, Browder is known less as an investor than as a human rights campaigner and Putin critic. Tuesday’s party thus included an eclectic mix: the professional basketball player Enes Kanter Freedom, former federal prosecutor Preet Bharara, private equity giant Stephen Schwarzman and National Review journalist Jay Nordlinger, who in 2017 highlighted the refusal of federal authorities to allow Browder into the U.S. The decision was reversed.

Browder is especially withering when it comes to the Western attorneys, bankers and publicists who help Putin’s oligarchs hide their ill-gotten gains, sue investigative journalists into submission and burnish their blood-spattered records with favorable coverage.

There could be only one motive for Western firms to do business with the Kremlin, Browder believes. “They’re just a bunch of greedy bastards that are trying to make as much money as possible,” he said, alluding to the legal travails of British journalist Catherine Belton, who was sued for reporting on Kremlin corruption. “They don’t care who they’re working for.”

Last week, Browder testified in Washington during a hearing on the Enablers Act, which would tighten already existing rules around money laundering, in effect providing more government scrutiny into the secretive movement of funds from countries like China and Russia.

“If we make banks report dirty money but allow law, real estate and accounting firms to look the other way, that creates a loophole that crooks and kleptocrats can sail a yacht through,” Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-N.J., said last fall when introducing the legislation. While it targets any institution or individual abetting money laundering, the measure has assumed a new urgency since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

Browder has additionally called for foreign accomplices of Russia to be deprived of entry into the United States, a proposal clearly aimed at Kremlin allies residing in the British capital, which has earned the unflattering nickname “Londongrad.” He bemoans the notion that high-profile seizures of oligarchs’ yachts give the impression of fatal blows, when they are really just minor difficulties or men worth billions.

“The real money is held in highly complex trusts and structures,” Browder said, in offshore havens like Jersey and the Cayman Islands.

Sanctions are one way to fight Putin. Weapons are another. “The Ukrainians say they need a no fly-zone,” he pointed out, rejecting the idea that such a move would immediately lead to nuclear war. “At what point,” he wondered, “do you finally stand up to Russia?”

And much as he would like to see Putin defeated, he hopes to return to Russia one day when it is a free country, one that doesn’t threaten him with prison or murder.

“It’s fascinating. It’s interesting. It’s unforgettable. It’s horrible,” Browder told Yahoo News. “It’s nasty, brutish. It’s got everything. If Putin wasn’t in power, and there was a democratic government, I would love to go back there.”

The Week

Russian troops ‘systematically raped’ 25 women, girls as young as 14 in a Bucha basement, Ukraine says

Peter Weber, Senior editor – April 12, 2022

After five weeks of Russian occupation, the Kyiv suburb of “Bucha is a landscape of horrors,” The New York Times reports in a graphic photo essay compiled over more than a week spent with officials, coroners, and scores of witnesses in the recently liberated city. “The evidence suggests the Russians killed recklessly and sometimes sadistically, in part out of revenge.”

Ukrainian officials said that as of Sunday, they had discovered the bodies of more than 360 civilians in Bucha and its immediate surroundings, including more than 250 killed by bullets or shrapnel and now being investigated as war crimes, Bucha chief regional prosecutor Ruslan Kravchenko tells the Times. Along with the executions and random murder are horrific cases of torture and sexual violence.

One man who fled his home with his wife when a Russian armored vehicle rammed their fence, said when they finally returned home after the Russians left, they found it “ransacked, filled with rubbish and beer bottles,” the Times reports. “Then, in a cellar under the garden shed, his nephew discovered the body of a woman” wearing “a fur coat and nothing else.” Police said she had been shot in the head, and they found condom wrappers, a used condom, and other signs she was kept as a sex slave before being executed, the Times reports.

Ukraine’s ombudswoman for human rights, Lyudmyla Denisova, said she has recorded many horrific cases of sexual violence by Russian troops in Bucha and other places, speculating that the rapes were partly revenge for stiff Ukrainian resistance but also a Russian weapon of war.

In one case, “about 25 girls and women aged 14 to 24 were systematically raped during the occupation in the basement of one house in Bucha. Nine of them are pregnant,” Denisova told BBC News. “Russian soldiers told them they would rape them to the point where they wouldn’t want sexual contact with any man, to prevent them from having Ukrainian children.” The BBC also spoke with one woman who recounted being raped.

CBS News, which spoke to a different woman who described being raped by a Russian soldier, notes that it is incredibly difficult to prosecute war crimes. Ukraine prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova told CNN Monday evening that her office is investigating 5,800 cases of Russian war crimes and has so far identified more than 500 suspects, including Russian politicians, military personnel, and propagandists.

Reuters

UPDATE 2-Russia says ammunition blast badly damages major ship in Black Sea fleet – Interfax

April 13, 2022

April 14 (Reuters) – The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, the Moskva missile cruiser, was badly damaged when ammunition on board blew up, Interfax news agency quoted the defence ministry as saying on Thursday.

Interfax said the crew had been evacuated. It blamed the blast on a fire and said the cause was being investigated.

A Ukrainian official earlier said the Moskva had been hit by two missiles but did not give any evidence.

The 12,500 tonne ship has a crew of around 500. Russian news agencies said the Moskva was armed with 16 anti-ship “Vulkan” cruise missiles, which have a range of at least 700 km (440 miles).

“As the result of a fire on the Moskva missile cruiser, ammunition detonated. The ship was seriously damaged,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. “The crew was completely evacuated.”

Interfax did not give more details.

Maksym Marchenko, governor of the region around the Black Sea port of Odesa, earlier said in an online post that two anti-ship missiles had hit the cruiser, but did not provide evidence.

Last month Ukraine said it had destroyed a large Russian landing support ship, the Orsk, on the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast of the Black Sea. Moscow has not commented on what had happened to the ship. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Stephen Coates and Neil Fullick)

Reuters

Russia says blast cripples Black Sea flagship, Ukraine claims missile strike

Pavel Polityuk and Oleksandr Kozhukhar – April 13, 2022

KYIV/LVIV, Ukraine (Reuters) -Russia said on Thursday the flagship of its Black Sea fleet was seriously damaged and its crew evacuated following an explosion that a Ukrainian official said was the result of a missile strike.

Russia’s defence ministry said a fire on the Moskva missile cruiser caused ammunition to blow up, Interfax news agency reported.

It did not say what caused the fire but Maksym Marchenko, the Ukrainian governor of the region around the Black Sea port of Odesa, said the Moskva had been hit by two Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles.

“Neptune missiles guarding the Black Sea caused very serious damage,” he said in an online post.

Ukraine’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment and Reuters was unable to verify either side’s claims.

The Moskva is the second major ship known to have suffered serious damage since the start of the war. Last month Ukraine said it had destroyed a landing support ship, the Orsk, on the smaller Sea of Azov.

Russia’s navy has launched cruise missiles into Ukraine and its activities in the Black Sea are crucial to supporting land operations in the south of the country, where it is battling to seize full control of the port of Mariupol.

Russian news agencies said the Moskva, commissioned in 1983, was armed with 16 anti-ship Vulkan cruise missiles with a range of at least 700 km (440 miles).

Russia said 1,026 soldiers from Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade, including 162 officers, had surrendered in Mariupol and that the city was fully under its control. Ukraine’s defence ministry spokesman said he had no information about a surrender.

Capturing the Azovstal industrial district where the marines have been holed up would give Russia control of Ukraine’s main Sea of Azov port, reinforce a southern land corridor and expand its occupation of the country’s east.

“Russian forces are increasing their activities on the southern and eastern fronts, attempting to avenge their defeats,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a Wednesday night video address.

Reuters journalists accompanying Russian-backed separatists saw flames billowing from the Azovstal area on Tuesday, a day after Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade said its troops had run out of ammunition.

The United States said on Wednesday it would send an extra $800 million worth of military hardware to Ukraine including artillery, armoured personnel carriers and helicopters. France and Germany also pledged more.

Senior U.S. officials are weighing whether to send a top cabinet member such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin Lloyd to Kyiv in a show of solidarity, a source familiar with the situation said.

Russia will view U.S. and NATO vehicles transporting weapons on Ukrainian territory as legitimate military targets, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the TASS news agency.

It will impose tit-for-tat sanctions on 398 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 87 Canadian senators, Interfax cited the foreign ministry as saying, after Washington targeted 328 members of Russia’s lower house of parliament.

Britain announced new financial measures on separatists, and Australia imposed targeted financial sanctions on 14 Russian state-owned enterprises on Thursday.

Fiji said it was investigating the arrival of the superyacht Amadea, owned by Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, who has been sanctioned by the United States, Britain and the European Union.

‘LIBERATE US FROM WHAT?’

Ukraine says tens of thousands of people are believed to have been killed in Mariupol and accuses Russia of blocking aid convoys to civilians marooned there.

Its mayor, Vadym Boichenko, said Russia had brought in mobile crematoria “to get rid of evidence of war crimes” – a statement that was not possible to verify.

Moscow has blamed Ukraine for civilian deaths and accused Kyiv of denigrating Russian armed forces.

In the village of Lubianka northwest of Kyiv, from where Russian forces had tried and failed to subdue the capital before being driven away, a message to Ukrainians had been written on the wall of a house that had been occupied by Russian troops.

“We did not want this … forgive us,” it said.

The Kremlin says it launched a “special military operation” to demilitarise and “liberate” Ukraine from nationalist extremists, a message villagers said had been repeated to them by the Russian troops.

“To liberate us from what? We’re peaceful … We’re Ukrainians,” Lubianka resident Viktor Shaposhnikov said.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said on a visit to Kyiv with his Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian counterparts that those who had committed and ordered crimes must be brought to justice.

Germany’s president did not join them as he had planned. Zelenskiy denied a newspaper report he had rejected the visit due to Steinmeier’s recent good relations with Moscow.

BIDEN’S GENOCIDE COMMENTS

The Kremlin denounced President Joe Biden’s description of Moscow’s actions in Ukraine as amounting to genocide, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying this was unacceptable coming from the leader of a country he said had committed crimes of its own.

An initial report by a mission of experts set up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe documents a “catalogue of inhumanity” by Russian troops in Ukraine, according to the U.S. ambassador to the OSCE.

“This includes evidence of direct targeting of civilians, attacks on medical facilities, rape, executions, looting and forced deportation of civilians to Russia,” Michael Carpenter said.

Russia has denied targeting civilians.

The Kyiv district police chief said 720 bodies had been found in the region around the capital from where Russian forces had retreated, with more than 200 people missing.

(Additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper in Kyiv, Max Hunder in London, David Ljunggren in Ottawa and Reuters bureaus; Writing by Costas Pitas and Stephen Coates; Editing by Cynthia Osterman and Michael Perry)

The Week

Zelensky: Russian forces left ‘hundreds of thousands’ of mines, unexploded shells in northern Ukraine

Catherine Garcia, Night editor – April 11, 2022

In northern Ukraine, Russian forces have dropped and left behind “hundreds of thousands of dangerous objects,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday night, including mines and unexploded shells.

“At least several thousand such items are disposed of daily,” Zelensky said. “The occupiers left mines everywhere. In the houses they seized. Just on the streets, in the fields. They mined people’s property, mined cars, doors. They consciously did everything to make the return to these areas after de-occupation as dangerous as possible.”

In Kharkiv, authorities are asking people to stay away from some neighborhoods in the eastern part of the city, where there are mines strewn across streets. Lt. Col. Nikolay Ovcharuk, head of the state emergency service’s de-mining unit, said the plastic devices are PTM-1M mines, which were used by Soviet troops in Afghanistan and are detonated by timers.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian forces of dropping “parachute bombs” over Kharkiv, and a resident who gave his name as Sergey told The Guardian that at about 1 a.m. Monday morning, “we heard some strange sounds, something whistled and then it all dropped.”

Zelensky said he believes Ukraine is now “one of the most contaminated by mines in the world,” and considers this a war crime. Russian forces, he added, “did everything to kill or maim as many of our people as possible, even when they were forced to withdraw from our land. Without the appropriate orders, they would not have done it.”

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Will the US run out of Javelin anti-tank missiles to give Ukraine before Russia runs out of tanks?

Mark F. Cancian, Center for Strategic and International Studies

April 13, 2022

• The US has supplied Ukraine with thousands of Javelin anti-tank missiles.
• But it’s nearing a point where it must reduce transfers to maintain a stockpile for US forces.
• Will Ukraine inflict enough Russian losses to cause stalemate before it runs out of Javelins?

The United States has supplied Ukraine with thousands of Javelins, the anti-tank missiles that have become the iconic weapon of the war, but the US inventory is dwindling.

The United States has probably given about one-third of its stock to Ukraine. Thus, the United States is approaching the point where it must reduce transfers to maintain sufficient stockpiles for its own war plans. Production of new missiles is slow, and it will take years to replenish stocks.

The Russians have numerous armored vehicles, but their supply of trained crews and level of morale are declining. Will Ukrainian anti-tank weapons inflict enough Russian combat losses to produce a battlefield stalemate before Ukraine runs out of its most effective anti-tank weapons?

Javelins ― the iconic weapon

To review, a Javelin is a long-range guided anti-tank missile that can be carried by one person. Javelins have become the iconic weapon of this war, with pictures of Mary Magdalene, dubbed St. Javelin, holding a weapon and even a Javelin song.

It is the most sophisticated, capable, and expensive weapon out of the wide range of anti-tank munitions that NATO and other countries are providing to Ukraine. The United States says it has provided 7,000 to Ukraine.

Infantry anti-tank weapons have allowed Ukrainian forces, which are mostly light infantry, to defeat Russian mechanized forces despite their much greater firepower.

It is important to note that Javelins are the most capable and best known of the anti-tank weapon systems but not the most numerous. That distinction goes to the NLAW, an anti-tank system with guidance but not as sophisticated as a Javelin’s and lesser range.

In addition, other nations have provided their own anti-tank weapons, such as the German Panzerfaust 3 and the Swedish Carl Gustav.

The United States has not published figures about its Javelin inventory, so this must be deduced. According to the Army budget books, total production has been 37,739 since production began in 1994.

Every year, US forces use some missiles for training and testing. Thus, there may be 20,000 to 25,000 remaining in the stockpiles. These 7,000 systems represent about one-third of the US total inventory.

That fraction doesn’t sound like much; after all, two-thirds of the inventory remains. However, military planners are likely getting nervous. The United States maintains stocks for a variety of possible global conflicts that may occur against North Korea, Iran, or Russia itself.

At some point, those stocks will get low enough that military planners will question whether the war plans can be executed. The United States is likely approaching that point.

The obvious answer is to build more missiles (and launch units, the control box that goes on the missile). The United States has been buying Javelins at the rate of about 1,000 a year. The maximum production rate is 6,480 a year, though it would likely take a year or more to reach that level. The delivery time is 32 months; that is, once an order is placed, it will take 32 months before a missile is delivered.

This means that it will take about three or four years to replace the missiles that have been delivered so far. If the United States delivers more missiles to Ukraine, this time to replace extends.

It’s not just Javelins

The United States is providing a wide variety of other systems, such as small arms, tracking radars, and armored trucks (High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle). However, the numbers being provided are relatively small compared to likely inventories.

For example, the United States has sent the Ukrainians 50 million rounds of ammunition. That sounds like a lot, but total US ammunition production for military and civilian purposes is 8.7 billion per year. Deliveries to Ukraine comprise less than 1% of that.

One system for which inventories and replenishment rates are limited is the Stinger anti-aircraft missile. According to the White House fact sheet, the United States has provided 2,000 Stingers to Ukrainian. The United States has not purchased any since 2003. At that time, the total production was stated as 11,600 missiles (from the FY 2000 budget documents).

With testing and training losses of 1% a year, the remaining inventory would be about 8,000. So, the United States has sent about a quarter of its inventory to Ukraine.

In 2003, the last time the United States procured Stingers, production rates were stated as 275 with standard shifts (called “1-8-5”) and 720 at maximum production rate. Production lead time was 24 months. That means it will take at least five years to replace the inventory drawdown (two years for lead time and three years for production).

The problem is that the production line is apparently kept alive only by a small number of foreign sales, so it may take longer than 24 months to ramp up. Further, the Department of Defense (DOD) has been thinking about the next generation of short-range air-defense systems and may not want to buy more of what it considers an outmoded technology.

So there may be an extended period of risk when the inventory is low, but a replacement is not in the pipeline.

How many targets are there for all those anti-tank weapons?

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) The Military Balance, the Russians have 2,800 tanks and 13,000 other armored vehicles (reconnaissance and infantry fighting vehicles) in units with another 10,000 tanks and 8,500 armored vehicles in storage.

Open-source intelligence indicates that the Russians have lost about 1,300 armored vehicles. The bottom line is that the Russians are not going to run out of armored vehicles anytime soon.

What the Russians may run out of are trained crews and morale if the Ukrainians chew up enough armor. The Russians have lost about 40,000 troops, a quarter of their initial combat force, with especially high casualties in their elite units. Reinforcements and replacements can restore some of the numbers, but skills are deteriorating and morale, never high, seems to be declining.

So it is a race. Will Russian combat losses produce a battlefield stalemate before Ukraine runs out of its most effective anti-tank weapons?

This piece was originally published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on April 12, 2022.

Mark F. Cancian is a senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.