Kremlin says repeated predictions of Ukraine invasion may have ‘detrimental consequences’
February 20, 2022
The Kremlin spokesperson on Sunday warned that repeated suggestions by Western governments of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine may have adverse consequences.
Speaking with Russian state television, Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin takes no notice of such statements.
“The fact is that this directly leads to an increase in tension. And when tension is escalated to the maximum, as it is now, for example, on the line of contact [in eastern Ukraine], then any spark, any unplanned incident or any minor planned provocation can lead to irreparable consequences,” Peskov told Rossiya 1 state TV, according to Reuters.
“So all this has – may have – detrimental consequences. The daily exercise of announcing a date for Russia to invade Ukraine is a very bad practice,” Peskov added.
Peskov was responding to remarks from President Biden who said Friday he was “convinced” that Putin had decided on whether he would invade Ukraine.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated much of the same predictions on Sunday, saying current intelligence indicated that Putin was planning on following through with an invasion.
“Everything we’re seeing tells us that the decision we believe President Putin has made to invade is moving forward,” Blinken said.
Up to 190,000 Russian troops are believed to have amassed along Ukraine’s borders. On Sunday, Belarus announced that joint military exercises with Russia that were meant to end this week would be extended.
Images show new Russian deployments of armor and troops near Ukraine – Maxar
February 20, 2022
A satellite image shows an overview of a helicopter deployment, a battle group, and troops, in Valuyki
(Reuters) – Satellite images show multiple new field deployments of armored equipment and troops from Russian garrisons near the border with Ukraine, a private U.S. company said on Sunday, in what its director said indicated increased military readiness.
The new activity comes as Russia extended military drills in Belarus that were due to end on Sunday, heightening fears among Western powers over an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The images released by U.S.-based Maxar Technologies, which has been tracking the buildup of Russian forces for weeks, could not be independently verified by Reuters.
“This new activity represents a change in the pattern of the previously observed deployments of battle groups (tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and support equipment),” Maxar said in a release on Sunday.
Several large deployments of battle groups had been observed around the military garrison at Soloti, Russia, as of Feb. 13 according to satellite images, Maxar said.
Images on Sunday showed most of the combat units and support equipment at Soloti had departed. Extensive vehicle tracks and some convoys of armored equipment were seen throughout the area, the company said.
Some equipment has also been deployed east of nearby Valuyki, Russia, in a field approximately 15 km (9 miles) north of the Ukrainian border. A number of new field deployments are also seen northwest of the Russian city of Belgorod, Maxar said.
Based on the tracks and the snow, the activity appeared to be recent, Stephen Wood, senior director at Maxar News Bureau, told Reuters.
“To me it indicates an increased state of readiness,” he said.
(Reporting by Michelle Price and Costas Pitas; Editing by Daniel Wallis)
Latest satellite images show shift in Russian military activity near Ukraine
February 20, 2022
New satellite images by Maxar Technologies collected over the weekend show an apparent shift in Russia’s military deployment around Ukraine as officials continue to warn about an impending invasion, according to The New York Times.
Some smaller deployments are now visible with several units shown to be on training grounds or outside of bases.
Most of the locations are in Russia’s Belgorod area, which is 25 miles from Ukraine’s boarder in western Russia. Images also showed a helicopter landing site being established in the last two weeks.
Analysis by Maxar cited by the Times indicate that units and equipment at a military garrison near the town of Valuyki have left.
Other footage, including a TikTok video, showed Russian military deployment less than five miles from the Ukrainian border, according to the Times.
The latest satellite imagery analysis comes as Russia has deployed as many as 190,000 troops in Russia and Belarus, with the number growing in recent weeks.
The U.S. and other Western governments have pressured for diplomatic solutions while threatening sanctions against Russia if it opts to further invade Ukraine.
In a statement, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Sunday that President Biden has accepted a meeting “in principle” with Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to de-escalate the tension within the Ukrainian border so long as no invasions occur this week.
“As the President has repeatedly made clear, we are committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins. Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov are scheduled to meet later this week in Europe, provided Russia does not proceed with military action,” Psaki said in the statement, referring to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Letters to the Editor: The Republican silence is deafening
Austin American-Statesman – February 19, 2022
Former President Donald Trump, shown in April 20, 2020 speaking at the White House.
Trump brought classified documents home; where are the law-and-order Republicans?
The Republican silence is deafening. Hillary’s use of her private email server caused screams of “Lock her up,” condemnation and turmoil that it shook the very foundations of Washington.
Now we learn that Trump ripped up documents and that his aides had to tape them back together. We are also learning that Trump brought 15 boxes of documents home with him. Although those documents were not secure, some were marked as classified The final insult was Trump flushing documents down the toilet.
Where is Ted Cruz? Where is Louie Gohmert? Where is Ken Paxton? Where is Gov. Abbott? Where are any of those law-and-order Republicans? Their silence and is a threat to our democracy.
Can I get a “Lock him up”?
Randy Broussard, Temple
Relying on print sources in search for factual and complete reporting
Re: Feb. 12 commentary, “How to lose your audience.”
I agree with Kathleen Parker’s analysis of the change at CNN since its inception back in the early ’80s. However, she shouldn’t forget what has happened over at Fox.
It’s changed from “We report, you decide” to entertainment and editorializing, leaving me and thousands like me wondering where to go for actual, factual and complete reporting. Too often the talking heads leave out important information and context in order to slant the reporting in a particular way.
It leaves me shaking my head. Oh, by the way, I have eschewed CNN, Fox, MSNBC and the other cable sources, and search written sources of news such as the Statesman, but still wonder if I am getting the entire story. Fortunately, I am retired and have the time to search multiple sources of information in order to get the full story. Sorry that the rest of the country does not have that luxury.
John Williams, Hutto
It’s unfair to blame Biden for how the war ended in Afghanistan
Re: Feb. 13 commentary, “Why is Ukraine America’s problem?”
I know Marc Thiessen’s column runs under the category “From the Right” but he has gone overboard in blaming President Biden for the unfortunate ending of the war in Afghanistan.
His criticism is known as the “Johnny at the Bat” theory. Poor Johnny is at bat in the bottom of the ninth with two outs. Alas, Johnny goes down swinging. And the cries arise from the crowd, “Johnny lost the game for us” and “Kick Johnny off the team.” Never mind that Johnny made only one out of 27 outs.
Yes, our president made the last out but he was preceded by Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump, any one who could have ended the game themselves. President Biden inherited a fait accompli from Trump’s misguided schedule to abandon Afghanistan.
Trump wants Wyoming lawmakers to change their election laws to block Liz Cheney from receiving crossover votes in the state’s GOP primary
John L. Dorman – February 19, 2022
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a “Save America” rally in Florence, Ariz., on January 15, 2022.AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
Trump on Thursday backed a Wyoming proposal that would end crossover voting in state primaries.
The bill would cut off potential support for Rep. Liz Cheney, who has fallen out of favor with many Republicans.
The measure would bar non-Republicans from requesting a GOP ballot and voting in another party’s primary.
Former President Donald Trump is pushing Wyoming lawmakers to back legislation that would bar Democrats and other non-Republicans from casting ballots in statewide GOP primaries, in a move widely seen as a way to sink Rep. Liz Cheney’s prospects for renomination by the party.
Cheney — who has clashed with Trump over his debunked election claims and the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol — is set to face water rights attorney Harriet Hageman in a Republican primary in August.
The proposed legislation, known as SF0097 — which was introduced by Wyoming state Sen. Bo Biteman — would prevent Democrats, Republicans, and independents from switching their party affiliation on the day of the primary election to vote in another party’s primary.
On Thursday, Trump applauded the legislation through his spokesperson, Liz Harrington.
“This critically important bill ensures that the voters in each party will separately choose their nominees for the General Election, which is how it should be!” the former president said in a statement released on Twitter.
He continued: “It makes total sense that only Democrats vote in the Democrat primary and only Republicans vote in the Republican primary. This bill has my Complete and Total Endorsement and Support.”
Politico on Thursday reported that several of Trump’s political associates were privately advocating for passage of the bill, with several state Republicans pushing for the change to ensure that Democrats don’t switch parties to support Cheney in the GOP primary.
Hageman, one of several Republican primary challengers to Cheney, represents the congresswoman’s highest-profile challenge, as she has been endorsed by the former president and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California.
Trump and David McIntosh — a former Indiana congressman who now leads the conservative Club for Growth — both called Republican Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon in recent weeks in a bid to get his support for the bill, according to two individuals with knowledge of the situation who spoke with Politico.
Michael Perlman, the communications director for Gordon, told the outlet that while Gordon has had conversations about the bill, the governor was not being pressured to make changes.
“The Governor has had many conversations about this issue, including with President Trump and David McIntosh, however characterizing that as ‘pressure’ would be incorrect,” he said. “Governor Gordon is going to do what’s best for Wyoming and he respects the legislative process.”
Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Mississippi), left, listens as Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyoming) speaks during the House select committee hearing on the Jan. 6 attack in Washington, DC, on July 27, 2021. Washington Metropolitan Police Department officer Michael Fanone is at center.Bill O’Leary/The Washington Post via AP, Pool
Cheney has become a polarizing figure among state Republicans
The former president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., tweeted in support of the proposal on Thursday, telling voters in the Equality State to “pay attention” to the issue. And Matt Schlapp, the American Conservative Union chairman who has close ties to Trump, tweeted that his organization might use support of the bill in scoring legislators.
“There was a big push this morning to get all of our MAGA influencers to push it and make a big deal out of it,” a GOP operative told Politico.
Last year, Wyoming legislators rejected a bill backed by Trump Jr. that would have mandated that candidates running in primaries receive a majority of the vote to avoid primary runoff elections.
When Cheney sought the GOP House nomination in 2016, she won with 39% of the vote in a multicandidate primary before cruising to an easy win in the general election. However, if a runoff election law had been in place at the time, the runner-up in the GOP primary could potentially have consolidated a majority of the vote in a second contest and defeated Cheney.
While speaking with The New York Times earlier this month, Cheney insisted that she would not ask Democrats to vote in the Republican primary to support her candidacy, despite her flagging popularity among base voters.
According to The Times, only 31% of Wyoming Republicans had a favorable opinion of Cheney in a recent private poll, compared to 60% who viewed her unfavorably.
The congresswoman has deep roots in the state, as her widespread name recognition is inextricably linked to that of her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney.
However, she has forged a polarizing legacy as a result of her criticism of Trump.
Cheney quickly ascended the GOP leadership ladder, becoming the House Republican Conference Chair only two years after joining the lower chamber. She was a reliable supporter of Trump’s agenda for the vast majority of his tenure in the White House.
That changed after January 6; she harshly criticized the former president’s response to the riot and his continued claims of a stolen election, eventually voting to impeach him for for incitement of insurrection.
After being stripped of her leadership position, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California tapped Cheney to serve as the vice chair of the January 6 select committee, which has continued to probe the riot in the face of deep opposition from Trump and most congressional Republicans.
Sue Hulett: Economic sanctions may make Russian invasion too costly
Sue Hulett – February 19, 2022
Vladimir Putin who reimposed Soviet-style dictatorship in his 23 years as leader of Russia, has also engineered a series of international power grabs. He invaded and annexed parts of two former colonies (Georgia in 2008) and Ukraine in 2014-2022), supported Syria’s dictator in his brutal crushing of civil war in Syria (2012-2022), and killed thousands of Muslims in the Russian province of Chechnya.
Presidents G. W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump under reacted to these and other displays of Putin’s attempts to recreate the Soviet/Russian Empire, although Obama and other NATO members eventually imposed painful economic sanctions on Russia after the annexation of Crimea and takeover of two other Ukrainian provinces in 2014. President Trump and Biden escalated defensive military and economic aid to Ukraine. All NATO members increased their defense budget contributions to European security. However, Putin remains largely undeterred, especially in regard to his appetite to re-conquer Ukraine (independent Ukraine now seeks European Union and NATO membership).
While Joe Biden’s chaotic and catastrophic (for the image of U.S. power) retreat from Afghanistan in 2021 embolden adversaries like China, Iran, and Russia, he is standing tall against Putin’s push to conquer in Europe. While pledging no U.S. troops to engage Russian troops if they invade the rest of Ukraine, he has rebuked Putin for his invasion preparations, played team-ball with other committed NATO allies, and revealed satellite and other intel on Russian troops (150,000+ on Ukraine’s borders), weapons, and maneuvers. He increased military aid to Ukraine and several nearby NATO members. He predicts Russia will invade, but will pay a huge economic and public relations price for invasion. Many tens of thousands of Ukrainians and thousands of Russians will die as a result. Biden and NATO pledge to impose new widespread economic sanctions (likely including the halting of the Russian-German oil pipeline) should Putin attack.
President Biden hopes that a consistent resistance to Putin’s plans for conquest and to undermine NATO unity will convince Putin to withdraw. As President Reagan said as he helped collapse the Soviet Empire in the 1980s, “Since the dawn of the atomic age, we’ve sought to reduce the risk of war by maintaining a strong deterrent and by seeking genuine arms control. “Deterrence” means … making sure any adversary who thinks about attacking the United States, or our allies, or our vital interests, concludes that the risks to him outweigh any potential gains. Once he understands that, he won’t attack. We maintain the peace through our strength; weakness only invites aggression.” While Putin masses front-line troops on Ukraine’s borders and pledges to dry-run nuclear missiles as a part of maneuvers on the border, Putin has also said he has no intention to invade and that diplomacy on Russian terms could commence.
However, as the Biden administration and NATO leaders know, Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling and his version of diplomacy are problematic and appeasement is not an option. Putin regrets the collapse of the Soviet empire, intends to restore Russian global power, and insists that former colonies bordering Russia must be “pro-Russian” and under Russian control just as in the good old days before the West interfered. Most of the former Soviet satellites (colonies) fled into Europe and NATO after the Soviet Union collapsed. Ukraine remained neutral and even returned to Russia the nuclear missiles that the Soviets had placed in Ukraine. The Russians in exchange pledged to do do nothing to endanger Ukrainian security. But Putin’s revanchist (I want all of Ukraine) pressures on Ukraine literally drove it westward as it sought to be European, independent, and secure.
It will be a challenge to negotiate with Putin. But he does want success on the cheap. Putin hopes that threats, posturing, displays of military firepower, deception, and boldness will win the day as the West backdowns in the face of pressure. Clearly NATO unity (there are 29 members) is sometimes vulnerable to conflicting interests and economic priorities. And, all have rejected war in Europe since WW II. Biden’s inconsistent foreign policy of retreat (Afghanistan, the Middle East, and so on) also makes the U.S. vulnerable to a determined aggressor or global power-seeker. So Putin may have hoped, to exploit Western appeasement to take Ukraine with little Western response.
However it looks like Biden’s and NATO’s firm commitment to Ukraine and to resist Putin’s aggression by way of renewed economic sanctions and military vitality surprised Putin and may convince him to negotiate rather than invade. If he pursues empire-by-aggression it will be a tragedy for Ukraine, but also for Russia as it will face a renewed NATO mission.
Louisa Sue Hulett is Professor Emerita (Political Science) at Knox College.
Russia to stage massive nuclear drills amid Ukraine standoff
February 18, 2022
MOSCOW (AP) — The Russian military on Friday announced massive drills of its strategic forces, a stark reminder of the country’s nuclear might amid Western fears that Moscow might be preparing to invade Ukraine.
The Defense Ministry said Russian President Vladimir Putin will personally oversee Saturday’s exercise, which will involve multiple practice launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
The ministry said it planned the maneuvers some time ago to check the readiness of Russia’s military command and personnel, as well as the reliability of its nuclear and conventional weapons.
The war games follow U.S. President Joe Biden’s warning on Thursday that Russia could invade Ukraine within days.
Western fears focus on an estimated 150,000 Russian troops — including about 60% of Russia’s overall ground forces — concentrated near Ukraine’s borders. The Kremlin insists it has no plans to invade.
But Moscow has demanded that the U.S. and its allies keep Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations out of NATO, not deploy weapons in Ukraine and pull back NATO forces from Eastern Europe.
Washington and its allies bluntly rejected the Russian demands, and Moscow threatened to take unspecified “military-technical measures” if the West continued to stonewall.
Russia holds massive drills of its strategic nuclear forces on an annual basis, but the maneuvers planned for Saturday pointedly involve the Black Sea Fleet. The fleet is based on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
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Images show military activity in Belarus, Crimea and western Russia – satellite firm
ByKanishka Singh and Dan Whitcomb – February 18, 2022
(Reuters) – Satellite imagery taken this week shows military activity in multiple locations across Belarus, the annexed Crimea region of Ukraine and western Russia near Ukraine’s border, a private U.S. company said on Friday.
U.S.-based Maxar Technologies, which has been tracking the buildup of Russian forces for weeks, said the images show recent helicopter deployments, consisting of both troop transport and ground attack helicopters, at multiple locations close to the border. They also show additional ground attack aircraft, air defense units and drone equipment have been deployed, it said.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-10-1/html/r-sf-flx.html
Reuters could not independently verify what was shown in the images.
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and that he was spreading false information to try to build a pretext for a military strike that could happen in days. Russia says it has no such intention and accuses the West of irresponsible fear-mongering.
Maxar said the images showed that a large new deployment of at least 50 helicopters had arrived in northwest Belarus.
A new helicopter unit and battle group deployment consisting of tanks, armored personnel carriers and support equipment was deployed at an airfield about 16 kilometers (9.9 miles) from the Ukraine border, the satellite firm said.
(Reporting by Dan Whitcomb and Kanishka Singh; Editing by Leslie Adler and Tim Ahmann)
Why would Vladimir Putin risk a Ukraine invasion? Check his ‘ego,’ analysts suggest.
Peter Weber, Senior editor – February 18, 2022
Vladimir Putin Alexey Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images
President Biden, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and numerous other U.S. officials delivered the same dire message on Thursday: All signs point to Russia invading Ukraine within days.
“Biden and his top aides acknowledge they are risking American credibility” by constantly warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin is about to launch a bloody, “unprovoked land war in Europe,” The New York Times reports. But they say “they would rather be accused of hyperbole and fearmongering than be proven right.”
Russia has maintained it has no plans to invade Ukraine, and Russian journalist Vladimir Pozner told NPR News on Tuesday that the feeling among Russians is that “Russia can win nothing by invading Ukraine,” On the contrary, he said, “it can lose a lot. Not only would it be a drawn-out guerrilla warfare kind of thing, which Russia cannot really bear. It would be total destruction of any kind of respect for Russia. There’s nothing to win and a lot to lose. And there are people who say that’s exactly what the West wants.”
“Putin has enough troops in place now to do what he wants to do when he wants to do it,” says Politico national security editor Ben Pauker, and when assessing whether he will invade, “the word we don’t hear often enough is ‘ego.'”
Putin has “played the pressure/escalation game many times before in order to extend the sphere of Moscow’s influence” or just “put himself back in the center of the world stage,” Pauker writes. “But this time, it seems he’s boxed himself into a corner: invade and suffer the consequences of international opprobrium and crippling sanctions, or pull the troops back and return home to a public that might smell weakness. I think ego is a significant part of why observers are so worried that he might actually do this, despite the consequences.”
Putin’s sated ego might help avert an “overt” Russian invasion, too, former U.S. NATO ambassador Douglas Lute suggested Thursday. “He enjoys this position,” Lute told the Times. “Everyone’s paying attention to him, like they haven’t in years. And he feels in control.”
‘What Mr. Putin did not want’: U.S. approves $6B tank deal with Poland
Paul McLeary – February 18, 2022
Alex Brandon/AP Photo
The State Department on Friday approved a long-awaited $6 billion deal to sell Poland 250 Abrams tanks, an announcement that comes as more U.S. troops and aircraft flood into the country in the face of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the deal early Friday while in a Warsaw press conference alongside his Polish counterpart Mariusz Blaszczak.
“What Mr. Putin did not want was a stronger NATO on his flank, and that’s exactly what he has today,” Austin said.
The eventual delivery “will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of our other NATO Allies.”
The package is another piece in Poland’s sweeping military modernization effort, coming on top of a $6.5 billion deal Poland forged in 2019 to buy 32 F-35 fighter planes, and other agreements to buy mobile rocket artillery systems from the United States.
In Vienna, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Michael Carpenter, upped Washington’s assessment of the force Russia has built up along Ukraine’s border, saying between 169,000 and 190,000 troops “are in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30.”
The Biden administration has deployed about 5,000 more troops to Poland over the past two weeks, bolstering the 4,000 troops already there, while dispatching two Stryker brigades based in Germany to Romania and Bulgaria.
A U.S. military official told POLITICO that the American role in Poland is “pretty limited” and focused on training with the Polish military and assisting and processing any American citizens who might flee any fighting in Ukraine.
“I think there are a lot of unknowns about what’s really going to happen,” the official, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss a sensitive issue, adding that any large flood of Ukrainians fleeing the fighting would be up to the Polish government and European Union to handle, and “we would have to be asked to do that.”
Austin addressed the issue in Warsaw on Friday, saying “if Russia further invades Ukraine, Poland could see tens of thousands of displaced Ukrainians and others flowing across its border, trying to save themselves and their families from the scourge of war.”
This week has seen a flurry of new activity as NATO and its allies seek to forestall a fresh Russian push into Ukraine. Vice President Kamala Harris met with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and Eastern European heads of state at the Munich Security Conference early Friday. In the afternoon, President Joe Biden will host a call about the Ukraine crisis with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Britain, the EU and NATO.
While the deal for the Abrams tanks has been approved, the Polish government still has to negotiate a final contract with General Dynamics and other U.S. defense companies that build the tanks and its components. That means it will be months, if not years, before the first tanks arrive in Poland.
The timing of the deal can be seen as a piece of a larger U.S. push in Eastern Europe.
This week saw a buildup in American airpower in the region, as eight additional F-15s from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C., arrived at the Lask Air Base in Poland, doubling the number of American F-15s which arrived there this month. Six more F-16s arrived in Estonia this month to help police the Baltic Sea.
This week, an additional eight F-16s based in Germany moved to an air base in Romania, and Utah-based F-35s moved to Germany.
