Law & Crime – Page 75 – The Tarbabys Blog

Moldova urges EU to save Transnistria from Vladimir Putin’s influence

The Telegraph

Moldova urges EU to save Transnistria from Vladimir Putin’s influence

Cameron Henderson – March 10, 2024

Mihai Popsoi says greater European alignment would help bring stability to the region – AP Photo/Alexandru Dobre

Moldova has urged the EU to save Transnistria from falling under the influence of Vladimir Putin.

Mihai Popsoi, the Moldovan foreign minister, told The Telegraph: “If Ukraine were to fail to resist, then we are next in line. Our citizens are fully aware of that threat.”

His comments come as European leaders rush to firm up their support for the tiny former Soviet republic.

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, struck a new security deal with Maia Sandu, Moldova’s president, in Paris in recent days.

Last week, Lord Cameron, the foreign secretary, said in parliament that if Putin is allowed to defeat Ukraine, “Moldova would be at risk”.

As Moldova vies for EU membership, Moscow has ramped up its efforts to destabilise the country by encouraging separatists in the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria to break away, in a bid to retain its authority in the region.

Mr Popsoi called on EU countries to support Moldova’s accession to the bloc and provide foreign investment, arguing that greater European alignment would help bring stability to the region.

“Moldova’s EU accession is a very strong pull factor for the Transnistrian region that also stands to benefit from these positive developments,” he said. “We want to provide them opportunities economically in exchange for reintegration of the country.”

Moldovan honour guards during a ceremony in Chisinau, on March 2, 2024, to commemorate the fallen soldiers of the Transnistrian War – DANIEL MIHAILESCU/AFP via Getty Images

Relations have long been fractious between Chisinau and Transnistria, a thin sliver of land on the border with Ukraine, which has been de facto controlled by pro-Russian forces since the collapse of the Soviet Union but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.

“The wounds are still fresh for many Moldovan families,” Mr Popsoi said of the Transnistrian War which split the country from 1990 onwards.

Since Moscow began its full-scale assault on Ukraine, Chisinau has been concerned the Kremlin could use Transnistria to open a new front in the south west, in the direction of Odesa.

Tensions came to a head last week when Transnistrian officials appealed for Russian “protection”, setting alarm bells ringing about a potential annexation plot.

The statement came a few days after Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said the rights of pro-Russian separatists in Transnistria must be respected, and the day before Putin’s annual speech.

In the event, nothing happened, vindicating a Moldovan intelligence analysis which described the plot as “another campaign to create hysteria”.

The Kremlin has around 1,500 troops permanently stationed in the region and has warned Ukraine and Moldova that attacking them would incur serious consequences.

But more than the threat of invasion, Moldova is concerned about Russia’s attempts to sow instability through disinformation.

“We take this bellicose rhetoric with a grain of salt,” said Mr Popsoi. “The imminent threat towards our borders is smaller but the threat towards our information space, our political system, remains strong.”

Defence analysts believe Moscow has ratcheted up its disinformation campaign against Moldova out of concern that the country’s increasing EU alignment threatens to undermine Russia’s authority in the region.

Moldovan officials have long danced “to the tune of Moscow”, relying on the country’s neutral status as a guarantee of security, Mr Popsoi said. But in recent years, and, in particular following Moldova’s decision to back Ukraine, the two countries have strongly diverged.

Dr Jack Watling, a land warfare researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), believes the intention of the Kremlin in spreading disinformation is to topple the current government and install a pro-Russian regime.

“Replacing the president with a Moldovan politician who looks favourably towards Russia is the ultimate goal,” he said.

In a recent report, he described how Russia’s disinformation machine is seeking to blame president Sandu for the country’s economic woes and exacerbate the threat that strengthened EU relations pose to Moldova’s Russian-speaking population in Transnistria.

“Of course the Kremlin is very interested to maintain a high state of anxiety in Moldova, a state of disarray, a state in which anger at the government would be increased,” said Mr Popsoi.

Spreading disinformation in this fashion also has a knock-on impact on Moldova’s beleaguered economy, which was completely derailed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A Transnistrian border guard secures an area at the Transnistria-Ukraine border at the checkpoint in the village of Pervomaysk – SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images

“Our economic situation is already complicated,” admitted Mr Popsoi. “So any state of unjustified and heightened risk is not helping us to keep the economic situation under control and to attract further investors.”

To ensure Moldova’s long-term stability, and with it, shore up Europe’s eastern border, Mr Popsoi believes European investment is essential.

“We appreciate the fish, but we would be much better off with the fishing rod,“ he said. “An investment in peace and stability in our region is an investment in peace and stability in broader Europe and the world.

“The potential harm and cost further down the way is a lot bigger than the investment in peace and stability and inviolability of borders paid now.

“Moldova’s European future cannot be taken hostage by the conflict,” he said. “At the same time, we have also highlighted the importance for the government of Moldova to undertake all efforts to ensure that the entire population of Moldova can benefit from the EU integration process.”

An FCDO spokesperson said: “The UK stands resolutely with Moldova in the face of sustained Russian aggression and malign activity.”

A lonely radio nerd. A poet. Vladimir Putin’s crackdown sweeps up ordinary Russians

Associated Press

‘A lonely radio nerd. A poet. Vladimir Putin’s crackdown sweeps up ordinary Russians

Dasha Litvinova – March 8, 2024

FILE - Artyom Kamardin, left, and Yegor Shtovba, right, stand behind a glass in a cage in a courtroom in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 28, 2023. Artyom Kamardin was given a 7-year prison sentence Thursday for reciting verses against Russia's war in Ukraine, a tough punishment that comes during a relentless Kremlin crackdown on dissent. Yegor Shtovba, who participated in the event and recited Kamardin's verses, was sentenced to 5 1/2 years on the same charges. (AP Photo, File) — Artyom Kamardin, left, and Yegor Shtovba, right, stand behind a glass in a cage in a courtroom in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 28, 2023. Artyom Kamardin was given a 7-year prison sentence Thursday for reciting verses against Russia’s war in Ukraine, a tough punishment that comes during a relentless Kremlin crackdown on dissent. Yegor Shtovba, who participated in the event and recited Kamardin’s verses, was sentenced to 5 1/2 years on the same charges. (AP Photo, File)

Viktoria Petrova is escorted by police for a hearing in a court in St. Petersburg, Russia, Friday, March 3, 2023. Petrova was sentenced to involuntary treatment in a psychiatric facility after she condemned Russian officials for sending troops into Ukraine on social media. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown. (AP Photo)

FILE - Police officers detain a woman during a protest in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Ulan-Ude, the regional capital of Buryatia, a region near the Russia-Mongolia border, Russia, Wednesday, April 21, 2021. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File) — Police officers detain a woman during a protest in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Ulan-Ude, the regional capital of Buryatia, a region near the Russia-Mongolia border, Russia, Wednesday, April 21, 2021. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - Police officers detains a demonstrator with a poster that reads: "Freedom for Alexei Navalny,” in Pushkinskaya Square in Moscow on Sunday, June 4, 2023. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File) — Police officers detains a demonstrator with a poster that reads: “Freedom for Alexei Navalny,” in Pushkinskaya Square in Moscow on Sunday, June 4, 2023. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - Police detain a man who wants to lay flowers paying last respects to Alexei Navalny at a large boulder from the Solovetsky islands, where the first camp of the Gulag political prison system was established, in St. Petersburg, Russia on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File) — Police detain a man who wants to lay flowers paying last respects to Alexei Navalny at a large boulder from the Solovetsky islands, where the first camp of the Gulag political prison system was established, in St. Petersburg, Russia on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - Riot police detain a demonstrator during a protest against mobilization in Moscow on Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File) — Riot police detain a demonstrator during a protest against mobilization in Moscow on Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - Police detain people protesting Russia's attack on Ukraine in St. Petersburg, Russia, Tuesday, March. 1, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File) — Police detain people protesting Russia’s attack on Ukraine in St. Petersburg, Russia, Tuesday, March. 1, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - Russian policemen detain a demonstrator protesting mobilization in St. Petersburg, Russia, Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File) — Russian policemen detain a demonstrator protesting mobilization in St. Petersburg, Russia, Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)

TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — A lonely man jailed for criticizing the government on his ham radio. A poet assaulted by police after he recited a poem objecting to Russia’s war in Ukraine. A low-profile woman committed to a psychiatric facility for condemning the invasion on social media.

President Vladimir Putin’s 24 years in power are almost certain to be extended six more by this month’s presidential election. That leadership has transformed Russia. A country that tolerated some dissent is now one that ruthlessly suppresses it.

Along with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in a crackdown reminiscent of the Soviet era. Some human rights advocates compare the scale of the clampdown to the repression from the 1960s to the 1980s, when dissidents were prosecuted for “anti-Soviet propaganda.”

THREE YEARS IN PRISON FOR A RADIO AMATEUR

Vladimir Rumyantsev led a lonely life. The 63-year-old worked stoking the furnace at a wood-processing plant in Vologda, a city about 400 kilometers (250 miles) northeast of Moscow. He had no family apart from an estranged brother.

To entertain himself, he bought a couple of radio transmitters online and started broadcasting audiobooks and radio plays that he had liked, along with YouTube videos and podcasts by journalists critical of the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine. He also shared posts on his social network page in which independent media and bloggers talked about Russia’s attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Rumyantsev did not intend to reach a radio audience. According to his lawyer, Sergei Tikhonov, he listened on headphones in his own apartment.

In a letter from behind bars published by Russia’s prominent rights group OVD-Info, Rumyantsev said “tinkering with and improving” radios has been his hobby since Soviet times, and he decided to set up self-broadcasting as an alternative to Russia’s state TV, which was increasingly airing “patriotic hysteria.” To him, it seemed a better technological solution than Bluetooth speakers because the radio could reach everywhere in his apartment, he said in the letter.

But his social media activity eventually put him on the authorities’ radar, and they discovered his radio frequency. In July 2022, police arrested Rumyantsev, accusing him of “spreading knowingly false information” about the Russian army — a criminal charge authorities introduced shortly after invading Ukraine.

Rumyantsev rejected the charges and insisted on his constitutional right to freely collect and disseminate information, Tikhonov says. The law under which Rumyantsev was charged effectively criminalized any expression about the war that deviated from the Kremlin’s official narrative. In December 2022, he was convicted and sentenced to three years in prison.

Tikhonov visits Rumyantsev every so often in a penal colony about 200 kilometers away (125 miles) from Vologda and described him as “calm and resilient,” even though incarceration has taken its toll on his health.

He said Rumyantsev deliberately chose to speak out against the war and refuses to apply for parole as “it is unacceptable for him to admit guilt, even as a formality.”

Russian media reported on the case against Rumyantsev when he was in pretrial detention, and he started getting many letters of support, Tikhonov said. Some supporters put money in his prison account, while others have sent supplies — mostly food, but also books and personal hygiene items, according to the lawyer.

“In addition to making the man’s life easier, this (gave him) an understanding that he is not alone and there are many people who share the same values,” Tikhonov said.

ARREST AND VIOLENCE AFTER A POETRY RECITAL

Artyom Kamardin worked as an engineer, but poetry is his passion.

He was a regular at monthly recitals in the center of Moscow, near the monument to Soviet poet Vladimir Mayakovsky. The recitals continued even after Russia invaded Ukraine. One was billed as an “anti-mobilization” recital several days after Putin announced a partial call-up into the army in September 2022.

Kamardin, 33, recited a poem condemning Russia-backed insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The next day, police with a search warrant burst into the apartment he shared with his wife Alexandra Popova and another friend, and took the poet into custody.

Police beat Kamardin, Popova and their flatmate, and raped the poet, both his wife and his lawyer said. All three filed a formal complaint with the authorities, and the allegations were eventually investigated. The authorities concluded that police acted “within the law,” the Russian news outlet Sota reported, citing the lawyer without providing further details.

For the couple, the experience was so traumatic that they “still can’t openly talk to each other” about what happened, Popova said in an interview with The Associated Press.

In addition to Kamardin, police swept up two other poets who didn’t know him, nor each other. They charged all three with making calls undermining national security and inciting hatred. All three were convicted and sentenced to prison terms.

Kamardin got the longest — seven years.

“No one should be in prison for words, for poetry,” Popova said. She said she believes that her husband’s poem “insulted someone so much that they decided to scourge a defiant poet.”

The couple got married while Kamardin was in pretrial detention.

INVOLUNTARY TREATMENT IN A PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL FOR WAR CRITICISM

Unlike dozens of other Russians convicted over speaking out against the war in Ukraine and handed prison terms, St. Petersburg resident Viktoria Petrova is spending her days in a psychiatric facility. In December, she was sentenced to six months of involuntary treatment over a social media post condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Her lawyer has said that doctors can keep Petrova there for as long as they want and extend the term indefinitely once the six months run out. So the ruling “can’t be considered good news,” Anastasia Pilipenko wrote in her blog on the messaging app Telegram.

Petrova was arrested in May 2022 and placed in pretrial detention over a post on Russian social network VK, in which she criticized Russian officials for what the Kremlin insists on calling “a special military operation” in Ukraine, the lawyer told Russian independent news site Mediazona.

In her Telegram blog, Pilipenko has described Petrova, 30, as “an ordinary girl” who “merely shared her thoughts on social media.”

“Ordinary life, ordinary gym, a cat. Ordinary job at an unremarkable office,” the lawyer wrote.

The court ordered a psychiatric evaluation of Petrova after other inmates of her pretrial detention center reported that she kept up her “antiwar propaganda,” Pilipenko said in an interview with a local news outlet. These evaluations are common but in a rare turn, Petrova was declared mentally incompetent.

The lawyer argued that it wasn’t true and her client’s words have been misconstrued, but to no avail — Petrova was committed to a psychiatric facility.

In November, Pilipenko reported abuse by facility staff, saying that they forced a strip search of the woman by male workers, pushed her around, strapped her to the hospital bed and injected her with medication that left her unable to to speak for two days.

“This should not happen to ‘political (prisoners),’ criminals, mentally ill people, healthy people — anyone,” Pilipenko wrote on Telegram. The facility didn’t comment on the allegations, but shortly after she spoke out about it, Pilipenko wrote, the abuse stopped.

Trump’s vaccine rhetoric sends chills through public health circles

The Hill

Trump’s vaccine rhetoric sends chills through public health circles

Nathaniel Weixel – March 9, 2024

Public health advocates are watching in growing alarm as former President Trump increasingly embraces the anti-vaccine movement.

“I will not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate or a mask mandate,” Trump said in a recent campaign rally in Richmond, Va.

It’s a line Trump has repeated, and his campaign said he is only referring to school COVID-19 vaccine mandates — but that hasn’t eased fears that the GOP leader could accelerate already worrying trends of declining child vaccination.

Trump “is an important voice. He has a big platform. And he uses that platform, in this case, to do harm. Because he’s implying by saying that we shouldn’t mandate vaccines, vaccines are in some ways ineffective or unsafe,” said Paul Offit, a pediatrician and vaccine expert at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.

The ironic part, Offit noted, is that the Trump administration kickstarted Operation Warp Speed, which helped drug companies use a relatively new technology to make two very effective and safe COVID-19 vaccines in less than a year.

Throughout the campaign, Trump has performed a complicated tap dance regarding COVID vaccines. He simultaneously wants to take credit for their speedy development but has also criticized their use and knocked his now former rivals for being too pro-vaccine.

In a post on Truth Social reacting to Biden’s State of the Union speech on Thursday, Trump again claimed credit for the COVID-19 shots.

“You’re welcome, Joe, nine month approval time vs. 12 years that it would have taken you!”

Every state and the District of Columbia requires children to get vaccinated against certain diseases before they start school, including measles, mumps, polio, tetanus, whooping cough and chickenpox. A plan to withhold federal funding would have widespread impact.

“Like most states, Virginia requires MMR vaccine, chickenpox vaccine, polio, etc. So Trump would take millions in federal funds away from all Virginia public schools,” former GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock (Va.) wrote in response to his campaign threat on X, formerly Twitter.

Since the public health emergency ended last May, no state requires students to get the COVID-19 vaccine, while 21 states have laws specifically banning schools from requiring COVID-19 shots.

Trump’s campaign says his comments only apply to states that mandate COVID-19 vaccines — making it essentially an empty threat.

“If you actually listen to the entire section, and also if you’ve been following his speeches for the past year, he’s talking about COVID vaccines in addition to masks in the same breath. This isn’t anything new,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in an email.

Experts say the politicization of vaccines has led to an increase in hesitancy and is sparking more outbreaks of preventable diseases like measles.

There have been measles outbreaks in 15 states this year, most recently in Florida, where state Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo did not recommend parents vaccinate their children or keep unvaccinated students home from school as a precaution.

Instead, he sent a letter to parents advising them to make their own decisions about school attendance.

Ladapo was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in 2021 and has since aligned himself with anti-vaccine sentiments, primarily about the COVID-19 shots.

Ladapo told people not to get the most recent shot and has drawn sharp rebukes from the medical community — as well as federal health agencies — for claims that the shots alter human DNA, can potentially cause cancer, and are generally unsafe.

Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said he worries that Trump is signaling he will empower more people like Ladapo if he wins reelection.

“I worry about any administration that doesn’t follow good evidence and good science, that they will put more and more people like them in their administration,” Benjamin said.

“We know that Trump had some extraordinarily competent people [in his first term]. But we also know that he had some extraordinarily incompetent people, and that in many situations, some of the really incompetent people carried the day because they aligned with his philosophy,” Benjamin added.

Robert Blendon, a professor emeritus of health politics at the Harvard School of Public Health, said the experience in Florida and the comments from Trump are part of a much broader Republican backlash against public health expertise and government mandates that can be traced to anti-COVID policies.

“It isn’t that he’s just going after these anti-vaccine votes,” Blendon said of Trump.

Trust in public health authorities has dropped precipitously among Republicans since 2021, and Blendon said Trump is a symbol of that. The anti-vaccine movement has never been associated with one particular political party, whereas the public health backlash is strongly Republican-centric.

“That’s made it very, very powerful,” Blendon said. “There are Republicans in the House and Senate, who when they’re not investigating public health, want to cut back the budget … so it has caught on within the Republican base very widely.”

Whether it’s anti-vaccine specifically or anti-public health more broadly, the sentiment is growing.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the percentage of kindergartners whose parents opted them out of school-required vaccinations rose to the highest level yet during the 2022-2023 school year.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known vaccine skeptic who is running for president as an independent, has gained a major platform to spread misinformation and widely debunked claims about vaccines.

He has falsely claimed vaccines cause autism, falsely declared the coronavirus shot is the world’s deadliest vaccine and questioned the safety of shots’ ingredients.

Offit, the vaccine expert, said he thinks public health officials could have done a better messaging job on the COVID-19 shots, and that by mandating vaccines they “inadvertently leaned into a Libertarian left hook.”

Still, Offit said he is concerned about the increasing anti-science rhetoric from politicians like Trump.

“I feel like we’re on the edge of a precipice here … you have the most contagious of the vaccine preventable diseases coming back to some extent, and with Donald Trump basically casting aspersions on vaccines, that’s only going to worsen.”

Orbán meeting offers preview of Trump’s 2nd-term strongman idealizations

CNN

Orbán meeting offers preview of Trump’s 2nd-term strongman idealizations

Analysis by Stephen Collinson – March 8, 2024

Szilard Koszticsak/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock/File

Victor Orban is taking his blueprint on dismantling democracy to Mar-a-Lago.

The Hungarian prime minister first won power through a democratic election, then proceeded to weaken the institutions of that democracy by eroding the legal system, firing civil servants, politicizing business, attacking the press and intimidating opposition parties and demagoguing migration.

Former President Donald Trump has left no doubt that he’d try something similar in the United States if he wins a second term – so the presumptive GOP nominee will presumably be eager to compare notes when he hosts Orbán in Florida on Friday.

The prime minister isn’t meeting Biden administration officials. (A Biden administration official told CNN’s Betsy Klein that no invitation for a meeting between the current US president and Hungarian leader was extended.) Instead, he’s choosing to meet the man he hopes will again be US president next year. The two men have a long history of mutual admiration. The fact that one of Trump’s first moves since becoming presumptive GOP nominee this week is to meet a European autocrat speaks volumes.

Trump sees Orbán as the kind of strongman – unencumbered by legal and political restraints – that he’d like to be. Orbán also frequently genuflects to Russian President Vladimir Putin – just like the former US president. Orbán supports Trump’s vow to end the war in Ukraine if he’s elected within 24 hours – a process that could happen only on Putin’s terms and reward his illegal invasion. Their relationship is also helped by the Hungarian leader’s frequent praise for Trump. He knows the way to the ex-president’s heart. At a rally in New Hampshire in January, Trump diverted from his regular stump speech to laud Orbán in a way that offered a chilling glimpse into his own intentions. “Some people don’t like him because he’s too strong. It’s good to have a strong man at the head of a country,” Trump reflected.

Orbán’s far-right populism, fierce anti-immigration rhetoric, Christian nationalism and hostility to LGBTQ rights has made him a popular ideological model for Trump’s “Make America Great Again” followers. He has spoken in the past at the Conservative Political Action Conference – an annual gathering of pro-Trump forces – and Hungary will host another edition of CPAC’s overseas conferences next month.

In many ways, Orbán pioneered a demagogic style of leadership that is identical to that of Trump long before the ex-reality star and property mogul went into politics. His country is a member of NATO and the European Union but, like Trump, he has often taken steps that cut against the interests of the western democracies. He has, for instance, long feuded with the EU over his anti-immigration policies and slowed the entry of Sweden into NATO, which finally took place this week.

Ahead of his meeting with the former president, Orbán endorsed Trump’s views on Ukraine, in what will have been music to Putin’s ears and will have added to alarm in Kyiv about what a second Trump term would mean. “It is not gambling but actually betting on the only sensible chance, that we in Hungary bet on the return of President Trump,” Orbán told an economic forum on Monday, Reuters reported. “The only chance of the world for a relatively fast peace deal is political change in the United States and this is linked to who is the president.”

Trump’s antipathy to sending more US aid to Ukraine had prompted House Republicans to block President Joe Biden’s latest $60 billion package and has led frontline soldiers fighting Russia to ration bullets. Trump is not even president, but he’s already influencing US policy in ways that help Putin.

Biden used the early portion of his State of the Union address on Thursday night to castigate Trump over his hostility to NATO allies and affinity with the Russian leader. “My predecessor, a former Republican president, tells Putin, ‘Do whatever the hell you want,’” Biden said, referring to a comment by Trump to the effect that if NATO states didn’t make military spending targets he wouldn’t defend them. “A former American president actually said that, bowing down to a Russian leader. It’s outrageous. It’s dangerous. It’s unacceptable.”

Biden, who is anchoring his reelection bid on a warning that Trump would destroy US democracy in a second term, was quick to seize on Orbán’s visit to Florida. In a statement, Biden’s campaign rebuked Trump for meeting “Hungarian dictator Viktor Orbán, notorious for eroding his own country’s democracy and cozying up to Vladimir Putin (sound familiar?)”

The juxtaposition of Biden using his State of the Union address on Thursday to vow to fight to preserve American and global democracy and Trump’s red carpet welcome for Orbán eloquently encapsulates the political and geopolitical crossroads that America’s presidential election represents.

Much of Europe is already recoiling in horror over the possibility of a second term for Trump. But in Budapest, at least, he’s seen as a kindred spirit and his return would be greeted with great satisfaction.

Trump praises ‘fantastic’ Viktor Orbán while hosting Hungarian autocrat at Mar-a-Lago for meeting and concert

CNN

Trump praises ‘fantastic’ Viktor Orbán while hosting Hungarian autocrat at Mar-a-Lago for meeting and concert

Kristen Holmes and Andrew Millman – March 9, 2024

Donald Trump heaped praise on Viktor Orbán while hosting the Hungarian prime minister at Mar-a-Lago on Friday night.

“There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orbán. He’s fantastic,” the former president told a crowd gathered for a concert at the Florida resort, as shown in a series of videos posted to Orbán’s Instagram account.

Trump added that the European autocrat is “a noncontroversial figure because he said, ‘This is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it, right? He’s the boss and … he’s a great leader, fantastic leader. In Europe and around the world, they respect him.”

Trump called the visit “an honor” and seemed to reference the pair staying in contact after he left White House in 2021, saying they “kept in touch.”

The meeting and subsequent admiration underscore Trump’s history of embracing global strongmen – at times at the expense of more traditional US allies.

The former president and a small group of close advisers met with Orbán for roughly an hour Friday night, sources familiar with the matter told CNN, with one of the sources describing it as a “social meeting” with no agenda. A separate source called it “friendly.”

Trump, according to a readout from his campaign, met with Orbán “to discuss a wide range of issues affecting Hungary and the United States, including the paramount importance of strong and secure borders to protect the sovereignty of each nation.”

Orbán, a fourth source told CNN, sought the meeting with Trump and had been planning to be in the US separately.

Afterward, Trump took him to a tribute concert that was part of a “members only” event at the club, featuring The Beatles and Rolling Stones tribute bands, along with the Palm Beach Symphony.

In one clip posted to social media, Orbán can be seen at the concert – billed as “Orchestral Elegance Meets Rock Legends” – presenting former first lady Melania Trump with a large bouquet of flowers as the band played “Oh, Pretty Woman” by Roy Orbison.

A Biden administration official confirmed to CNN that the White House did not extend an invitation to the authoritarian leader to meet with President Joe Biden, and Orbán did not request a White House meeting during his trip to the US this week.

Biden earlier in the day suggested the meeting between the Hungarian strongman and Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, was worrying.

Asked whether he was concerned about the Mar-a-Lago talks, Biden said: “If I’m not, you should be” – suggesting it was only natural for him to be alarmed by the meeting between Orbán and Trump.

The Biden administration has mostly declined to comment on Orbán’s meetings with Trump, but the president seized on the visit during remarks Friday evening in the crucial 2024 battleground of Pennsylvania.

“You know who he’s meeting with today, down in Mar-a-Lago? Orbán of Hungary, who stated flatly he doesn’t think democracy works – he’s looking for dictatorship,” Biden told the crowd gathered for what was his effectively his first rally of the 2024 general election campaign.

“That’s who he’s meeting with,” Biden added. “I see a future where we defend democracy, not diminish it.”

This headline and story have been updated with additional details.

CNN’s Kevin Liptak, Betsy Klein, Michael Williams and Kaanita Iyer contributed to this report.

With Sweden in NATO, the alliance has new ways to strike Russia’s prime targets

Business Insider

With Sweden in NATO, the alliance has new ways to strike Russia’s prime targets

Tom Porter – March 8, 2024

Sweden has formally joined the NATO alliance.
Its membership enhances NATO’s capabilities against Russia.
It would enable NATO to strike key Russian cities in a conflict.

As Sweden’s NATO membership took a decisive step toward becoming a reality, Russia was issued with a stark warning.

“If Russia dares to challenge NATO, Kaliningrad would be ‘neutralized’ first,” Linas Linkevicius, a former Lithuanian foreign minister, said on X in February.

Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign-ministry spokesperson, shrugged off the comment, describing it as “information warfare.”

But the threat shouldn’t be dismissed so quickly. With Sweden now formally accepted as a member of the alliance, key Russian cities and military assets are in closer range of NATO attacks.

Russia menaces the Baltics

NATO planners have long seen the alliance’s northeastern flank, the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, as a weak point.

The territory used to be part of the Soviet empire, and analysts believe Russian President Vladimir Putin has long harbored ambitions to bring it back under Moscow’s control.

In documents leaked in January, German military experts envisage a scenario in which Russia defeats Ukraine and then attacks NATO’s Baltic members, spelling out how Putin could seek to realize his ambition.

The documents say that Russia could stir internal turmoil and then move troops into the Suwalki Gap, a 65-mile stretch of territory connecting Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave on the Baltic Sea to Belarus, a close Kremlin ally.

The move would cut the Baltic NATO members off from the rest of Europe, exposing them to further Russian attacks.

But Sweden’s membership gives the alliance potent, new ways of deterring Russia from attacking the Baltic region.

Nima Khorrami, an analyst at the Arctic Institute, recently told Business Insider that Sweden’s membership “extends NATO’s missile range, putting strategic locations in Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg within reach.”

“This adds another layer of deterrence against potential Russian aggression, as NATO forces can effectively respond to threats in real time,” he said.

St. Petersburg, Russia’s second city, has long been the base of Russia’s Baltic fleet.

Kaliningrad was formerly named Königsberg and was seized by the Soviet Union from Germany in World War II. It extends Russia’s capacity to project its power into the Baltic region, containing air defenses, electronic-warfare units to scramble GPS systems, cruise missiles, and more.

It would likely play a key role in any Russian attempt to attack the Suwalki Gap and Baltic nations.

“Degrading Russian assets there is critical for NATO operations in the area. That would, in particular, need a saturation of Russian air-defense systems,” Oscar Jonsson, a researcher at the Swedish Defence University, told BI.

“Sweden is important for both safely receiving NATO troops and capabilities and by being hard to target for Russian forces, while being close enough to Kaliningrad to launch long-range precision capabilities. As its closest, Sweden is 280 km away from Kaliningrad which is a good distance,” he said.

Russia is responding to NATO’s new, expanded presence in the Baltic by massively expanding its own military presence in the region, a Lithuanian intelligence report released this week said.

It found that as part of a decadelong restructuring process, Russia would increase its military forces in the region and place nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in Belarus.

Russia has long accused NATO of seeking to encircle it, with Putin citing the claim as part of the justification for Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

But with Sweden becoming the newest member of the alliance, Putin has inadvertently placed his forces at a serious disadvantage in a key region.

“Russia’s previous false accusations that it is surrounded by NATO are now becoming a reality,” Linkevicius said.

Sweden finally joins NATO after months of wrangling – meaning Putin has another member on his doorstep

Independent

Sweden finally joins NATO after months of wrangling – meaning Putin has another member on his doorstep

Chris Stevenson – March 7, 2024

Sweden has officially joined Nato – ending decades of post-Second World War neutrality to become the alliance’s second new member since Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine.

The ratification cements NATO’s presence in the Nordic region with all countries now members, and makes the Baltic essentially a “Nato sea” right on Vladimir Putin‘s doorstep.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken presided at a ceremony in which Sweden’s “instrument of accession” to the alliance was officially deposited at the State Department.

“This is a historic moment for Sweden. It’s historic for alliance. It’s history for the transatlantic relationship,” Mr Blinken said as he welcomed the 32nd country into the group. “Our Nato alliance is now stronger, larger than it’s ever been.”

The Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg described it as “a historic day,” adding: “After over 200 years of non-alignment Sweden now enjoys the protection granted under Article 5, the ultimate guarantee of Allies’ freedom and security”.

Article 5 of Nato’s treaty obliges all members to come to the aid of an ally whose territory or security is under threat. It has only been activated once – by the US after the 11 September, 2001, attacks – and is the collective security guarantee that Sweden has sought since Russia invaded Ukraine.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, accepts Sweden’s instruments of accession from Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (Reuters)

Finland and Sweden both applied to join the defence alliance in the wake of Russian President Putin ordering the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While Finland officially joined Nato last April, Sweden’s bid was held up by Hungary and Turkey.

Turkey expressed concern that Sweden was harboring and not taking enough action against members of the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), which is deemed a terrorist group by Ankara, the US and the EU. The Turkish parliament finally gave approval in January. As for Hungary, it continued to drag its feet, without ever being so clear about the reasons for its objections. Populist

President Viktor Orban is Putin’s closest ally in Europe, and has been a block on EU-wide funding for Ukraine. Some have suggested that Orban has sought to play up his nation’s military and economic leverage to look strong to a domestic audience. Hungary finally ratified in the decision within the last week.

“Good things come to those who wait. No better example,” Mr Blinken said.

The White House said that having Sweden as a Nato ally “will make the United States and our allies even safer.”

A Ukrainian serviceman from air defence unit of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade fires a AK-74 assault rifle on the eastern frontline near Bakhmut (REUTERS)

“Nato is the most powerful defensive alliance in the history of the world, and it is as critical today to ensuring the security of our citizens as it was 75 years ago when our alliance was founded out of the wreckage of the Second World War,” it said in a statement.

Mr Kristersson was due to visit the White House and then be a guest of honor at President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address to Congress late on Thursday. Mr Biden is expected to cite Sweden’s accession to Nato as evidence that Putin’s intent to divide and weaken the alliance has failed as a direct result of the Ukraine invasion. He is also set to use Sweden’s decision to join to step up calls for reluctant Republicans to approved stalled military assistance to Ukraine as the war enters its third year.

Ukraine has been facing Russian advances in eastern areas of the 600-mile frontline while having to contend with shortages of ammunition. While the EU has managed to overcome Orban’s objections to push through some fresh funding, the US Congress still cannot agree. As Washington is the single largest supplier of military aid to Kyiv, Ukrainian officials have urged the US to agree new funds as soon as possible, as it is having a direct impact on the frontline.

The Swedish flag will be raised outside the military organization’s headquarters in Brussels on Monday. “Sweden will now take its rightful place at Nato’s table, with an equal say in shaping Nato policies and decisions,” Mr Stoltenberg said in his statement.

“Sweden’s accession makes Nato stronger, Sweden safer and the whole alliance more secure,” he added. He said that the move “demonstrates that Nato’s door remains open and that every nation has the right to choose its own path.”

Sweden has already got a taste of military exercises with NATO. Nordic response, a first-of-its-time training venture was launched in recent days across northern Norway, Sweden and Finland. The exercises across land, air and sea involve more than 20,000 troops from 13 nations, including the UK.

Russia isn’t ready for the surprise NATO attack its strategists foresee

Business Insider

Russia isn’t ready for the surprise NATO attack its strategists foresee

Michael Peck – March 9, 2024

Russian strategists believe their country must be ready for NATO conventional missile strikes.
Russian media publicized their article just as NATO war games began.
The missile strike they think NATO is planning is a mirror of how Russia itself would fight a war.

Russian strategists argue its military needs more robust systems to defend against a NATO surprise attack that would come in the form of conventional missile strikes, a warning that comes as NATO conducts a massive exercise near Russia’s northern border.

A recent article in Voyennaya Mysl (“Military Thought”) argues that a likely scenario is a “likely enemy” — presumably the US and its NATO allies — launching a massive barrage of missiles at vital Russian facilities, a strategy that looks a lot like Russia’s. “An attack might begin with a rapid global strike alongside several massive missile and aviation strikes on the country’s administrative-political and military-industrial infrastructure,” according to an official TASS news agency summary of the article, which recommends expanding the missions and equipment of the Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS.

How exactly NATO would attack Russia in this scenario is unclear, though the Russian analysts seem to be describing what the US military would call “multi-domain operations.” The article speaks of “joint operative formations” that consist of “compact, highly mobile combined multi-role groups of troops capable of inflicting heavy losses on the administrative-political and military-industrial infrastructure in all spheres: on the ground, on the high seas, in the air, in outer space and in cyberspace.”

The attack would be preceded by “provocations” to justify a war, as well as the deployment of forces near Russia. “The enemy will take potentially aggressive action, including provocations, for the purpose of controlling the situation, as well as intensify all types of intelligence activity. In addition, it may start deploying aircraft carrier strike groups and ships with guided missiles under the guise of exercises. Enemy aircraft, including strategic bombers and drones, will begin to perform regular flights near Russia’s national borders.”

The attack itself would begin with a massive air offensive (and by 2030, attack from space), “consisting of a rapid (instant) global strike and several (from 2-3 to 5-7) massive missile and air strikes,” the article warned.

This perceived NATO strategy of massive strikes risks compelling Russia to use its nuclear weapons, especially tactical nukes, to defend itself. But it is not without some grounding. In October 2022, the former CIA director and retired Army Gen. David Petraeus warned Russia that the use of a nuclear weapon against Ukraine would prompt a heavy NATO response that would sink the entire Black Sea Fleet and “take out” the ground forces in Ukraine “that we can see and identify.”

A US Marine Corps pilot flies an F/A-18D Hornet ahead of Exercise Nordic Response 24 at Andenes, Norway on Feb. 29, 2024.Cpl. Christopher Hernandez/US Marine Corps

Perhaps not coincidentally, Russian media publicized the article just as NATO began Nordic Response 2024, a large, 11-day exercise involving more than 20,000 troops, 50 ships, and 100 aircraft operating across Norway, Finland, and Sweden. It will also be notable by the presence of new NATO members Finland and Sweden, whose accession to the alliance has Russia worried over the security of its vast northern frontier. In 2020, the US flew B-52 bombers in the Barents Sea, which abuts Russia’s Arctic territories.

Predictably, the Russian experts urged more defense spending. This would include expanding the equipment and missions of the Russian Aerospace Forces, including the development of more advanced UAVs and other weapons, creating an automated fire control system (presumably AI-based), and “the improvement of reconnaissance, aviation engineering, airfield and other types of comprehensive support.”

The call to boost spending on airpower comes as Russia’s defense spending explodes, with the Kremlin diverting one-third of the national budget to finance the military and the war in Ukraine. That’s triple the amount in 2021, before the war began, by some estimates. While the Russian Air Force has had some success in supporting ground troops — albeit at a heavy cost — during recent Russian offensives, its overall performance in the war has been surprisingly ineffective.

Ironically, the missile strike that Russian military experts accuse the West of planning is a mirror image of how Russia itself would fight a war. “Russian military thought has broadly cohered around the idea of ‘active defense’ in the event of a NATO-Russia war,” Julian Waller, a Russia expert at the Center for Naval Analyses think tank in Arlington, Virginia, told Business Insider. “Such that due to expectations of overwhelming kinetic strikes in the initial phases by the West, Russia needs to be able to withstand these while also striking back at critical military and civilian infrastructure. This involves heavy usage of missiles, long-range fires, and VKS assets.”

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ.

Republicans’ Big FBI Cut Came From Scrapping One Senator’s Earmark

The New York Times

Republicans’ Big FBI Cut Came From Scrapping One Senator’s Earmark

Catie Edmondson – March 9, 2024

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) in his office on Capitol Hill in Washington on Dec. 13, 2022. (Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times)

WASHINGTON — When Republicans won the House majority, some of their most conservative members pledged to use their power to slash the budgets of the federal agencies they claimed had been weaponized against them — chief among them the FBI.

So when Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled the package of six government spending bills he had negotiated with Democrats that cleared Congress on Friday, he touted the “deep cuts” — 6% — Republicans had secured to the agency’s budget.

But the story of the FBI cut is not so much one of how House Republicans used their slim majority to raze the budget of an agency they claim has gone rogue. Instead, it is a remarkable yarn about how a single powerful senator used budgetary sleight of hand to steer hundreds of millions of dollars to a single project in his state, only to see the money slashed by members of his own party after he retired.

Out of the $654 million lawmakers agreed to cut this year from the FBI’s operating budget, $622 million came from eliminating what was essentially an old earmark: money for construction at the bureau’s campus at Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama. The funding was placed into the budget years ago by Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, a legendary pork-barreling veteran who retired in 2022 at 88.

The actual cut to the FBI’s operating budget — mostly for personnel and operations — was roughly $32 million, or 0.3%.

Ultraconservative Republicans like Rep. Chip Roy of Texas who voted against the spending package this week, deriding it as full of budgetary gimmicks, pointed to the elimination of Shelby’s pet project as a prime example of how little his party had actually been able to cut.

Grousing about the FBI budget cut on the House floor this week, Roy said, “What they won’t tell you is, 95% of that cut is eliminating an earmark from Richard Shelby, because Richard Shelby is no longer here to defend his pet project building back in Alabama.”

For years, Shelby used his perch on the Appropriations Committee to single-handedly transform the landscape of his home state, harnessing billions of federal dollars to conjure the creation and expansion of university buildings and research programs, airports and seaports, and military and space facilities.

One of his most prioritized projects was the twin FBI campuses at Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, where over the course of a decade, he steered more than $3 billion to build up the 1,100 acres of land the bureau has secured there for facilities dedicated to cyberthreat intelligence and training.

The FBI has said to expect that more than 4,000 jobs will come to Huntsville over the next eight to 10 years.

Normally, such pet projects are funded through earmarks — a practice that allows lawmakers to direct federal funds for specific projects to their states and districts. Those projects are enumerated in a separate list, which clearly lays out how much federal money is going to a specific project, and which lawmaker requested it.

Shelby instead shoehorned money for the campus into the text of the spending bill, in an apparent effort to ensure it would be available even after he left Congress. For multiple years in a row, the Biden administration requested about $61 million for the FBI’s construction budget. Instead, at the senator’s behest, Congress gave it $632 million one year, and $652 million the next. Shelby did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In each case, the laws stated that the additional funding was to be used to address the FBI’s “highest priorities outside of the immediate national capital area,” meaning Washington, D.C.

While it did not say so in the legislation, it was clear that that meant only one place: Huntsville.

“Growing the FBI’s presence in Huntsville has been a priority of mine for quite some time,” Shelby said in an announcement in 2022 touting the additional funding. “And I am proud to have helped bring it to fruition.”

Ukraine war: Is Europe doing enough to help against Russia?

BBC News

Ukraine war: Is Europe doing enough to help against Russia?

James Landale – BBC – March 9, 2024

Zelensky (centre) with EU and Canadian leaders — The EU and the West have pledged to support Ukraine, whatever the cost. But are they living up to that vow?

When the widow of the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny addressed the European Parliament recently, she said something striking. “If you really want to defeat Putin, you have to become an innovator,” Yulia Navalnaya told MEPs. “And you have to stop being boring.”

Being innovative and interesting may be traits not always associated with some European politicians.

But they are having to think differently, not just about how better to support Ukraine but also to increase pressure on Russia.

The shadow of a potential Donald Trump presidency hangs over the continent, raising doubts about America’s long-term backing for Ukraine.

A $60bn (£47bn) package of US military support for Ukraine is held up in the House of Representatives. And on the battlefield, Russian forces are beginning to make gains against their less well armed opponents.

Two years on from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European capitals have largely maintained their political backing for Kyiv.

In January the European Union agreed in January a €50bn package ($55bn; £43bn) of grants and loans to fund Ukraine’s government and public services.

But the EU failed to meet its target of sending one million shells to Ukraine by the beginning of this month.

EU diplomats are still haggling over plans for a new €5bn top-up to the European Peace Facility to buy more weapons for Kyiv. And Nato says that this year about 12 European members may still not meet the alliance’s target of spending 2% of national output on defence.

Medics treat a wounded Ukrainian soldier — As politicians debate support, Ukraine is losing ground – and paying in blood

More weapons

With the diplomatic and military balance is shifting, Europe is having to think creatively about how to support Ukraine and deter future Russian aggression.

There are existing stocks of ammunition and weapons Europe could give to Ukraine.

UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron told the House of Lords this week that instead of decommissioning weapons systems at great expense once they technically pass their expiry dates, allies should give them to Ukraine.

He also said countries in Eastern Europe with “legacy Soviet ammunition” suitable for Ukrainian weapons should release those stocks immediately.

But, as throughout this war, European leaders are still agonising over what weapons to give Kyiv.

The latest row is over Germany’s Taurus missiles. These have range of about 300 miles (500km), more than the UK-supplied Storm Shadows being used by Ukraine.

Many allies believe Taurus would give Ukraine the chance to strike deep behind Russian lines.

But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fears they could also be used against Russian cities and is resisting, fearing escalation.

women hold Ukrain flags at a protest — Olaf Scholz is under pressure at home and abroad to give the Taurus missile to Ukraine, amid recent demonstrations in Berlin

There are also plans to get Ukraine desperately needed artillery shells. The Czech government agreed a $1.5bn (£1.2bn) deal this week for a consortium of 18 Nato and EU countries to buy 800,000 rounds – both 155mm and 122mm calibre – from outside the EU.

This is a significant shift for more protectionist-minded EU members, especially France. But it will not meet Ukraine’s demand for the 2.5m shells it says it needs this year.

More defense spending

Policymakers are also are mulling new ways to increase spending on defence, including a proposal for the European Investment Bank to end its ban on funding defence projects.

There are proposals for European countries to co-operate more on defence procurement, buying arms jointly from manufacturers to drive down costs. Governments are also looking to give defence firms longer-term contracts to boost production in a highly risk adverse industry.

But little will happen overnight. One British minister told me: “One forgets that Dunkirk to D-Day was four years. It takes a long time to generate the mass to go from defence to offence.”

More military support for Ukraine

Estonia wants all Nato countries to commit – as it has – to give Ukraine at least 0.25% of their output in military support.

This would raise about 120bn euros per year. Although some allies are sympathetic, this idea has yet to win widespread backing.

Some Europe policymakers are also drawing up plans for a form of updated “lend-lease” arrangement to loan weapons to Ukraine, just as the allies did for the USSR during WWII. But these ideas are at an early stage.

Russian assets

Much thought is going into how best to exploit the roughly 300bn euros of frozen Russian assets held in Western financial institutions.

Giving the money outright to Ukraine might be illegal and put European assets at risk in other jurisdictions.

But the EU is looking at a plan to use the profits to fund military support for Ukraine. And the UK is looking at a separate proposal to use the assets as collateral for fast-track reparations for Ukraine.

The aim is not just to raise cash for Ukraine but also level a strategic blow against Russia, hitting its economy hard.

Russia’s economy under Vladimir Putin has managed to sidestep Western sanctions

So some European policymakers are thinking laterally. But tensions remain.

Many Eastern European countries are committing more military resource than their Western counterparts. Loose-lipped German officers are upsetting allies by revealing military secrets.

And President Emmanuel Macron of France has ruffled feathers by suggesting the West should consider putting military boots on the ground in Ukraine, thought by many analysts to be an unnecessary row over an implausible option.

Perhaps the biggest disagreement within European capitals is about the long-term challenge from Russia.

A recent poll from the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank suggested while most Europeans support Ukraine, only 1 in 10 think it can win an outright victory.

Some analysts say this is because European governments have not understood the broader challenge from Russia.

“There is no evidence that the highest political level has understood the scale of the threat or tried to explain it to the public,” says Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, a British think tank.

“If action comes too late to avoid disaster, it will have been because of criminal complacency.”

So will Europe rise to the challenge? Maybe there was one small hint of change this week.

France has long been criticised for not giving Ukraine enough military support. But President Macron – who once said Russia should not be humiliated – was in bullish form.

“We are surely approaching a moment for Europe in which it will be necessary not to be cowards,” he said.