Last minute provision in GOP tax bill would benefit Trump, Corker: IBTimes

The Hill

Last minute provision in GOP tax bill would benefit Trump, Corker: IBTimes

By John Bowden December 16, 2017

Last minute provision in GOP tax bill would benefit Trump, Corker: IBTimes © Greg Nash

A last-minute addition to the GOP tax plan creates a new tax deduction that would potentially benefit both President Trump and Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker (R), who is seen as a swing vote on the Republican tax reform plan.

International Business Times reports that a provision added during the reconciliation process allows owners of income-producing real estate to take advantage of a 20 percent deduction for “pass-through” entities. The Senate version of the tax bill included rules that allowed the deduction to be claimed only by businesses that pay their employees significant wages.

The new provision effectively creates a new tax deduction for real estate moguls like Trump and Corker, who announced his support for the bill on Friday after it was added. According to the IBTimes more than a dozen other GOP lawmakers could also benefit from the provision.

Both Trump and Corker have made millions off of “pass-through” income, according to IBTimes. Trump made between $41 million and $68 million from 25 “pass-through” LLC’s he owned in 2016, while Corker earned between $1.2 million and $7 million in rental income from his LLCs last year.

“I know every bill we consider is imperfect and the question becomes is our country better off with or without this piece of legislation. I think we are better off with it. I realize this is a bet on our country’s enterprising spirit, and that is a bet I am willing to make,” Corker said in his statement explaining his support for the bill.

Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen (MD) condemned his colleagues after learning about the provision, who he said were putting personal profit over the American people.

“Writing a tax bill that puts the very wealthy and special interests before working families was bad enough – but to slip in a last minute provision that could give even more of a windfall to people like President Trump and some Republicans in Congress is unconscionable,” the senator told IBT.

“It’s not too late for my colleagues to do the right thing. I urge them to put politics – and personal profit – aside, and stop this scam that will leave millions of middle class Americans paying more and cause the debt to skyrocket,” he added.

Corker’s spokesman denied that the senator knew about the provision before agreeing to vote for it, and added that he did not request any specific provisions before switching his vote to yes. Corker was the only Republican senator to vote against the bill when it passed in a 2:00 a.m. session at the end of November.

“Senator Corker is not a member of the tax-writing committee and made no requests for specific provisions throughout this debate,” a spokesman for Corker told IBTimes.

Republicans at state level fret over GOP tax overhaul

The Hill

Republicans at state level fret over GOP tax overhaul

By Reid Wilson December 16, 2017

Republicans at state level fret over GOP tax overhaul © Getty

CORONADO, Calif. — While Congress races to pass a massive tax overhaul by the end of the year, Republicans in state capitals across the country find themselves in a bind as they plan their own state budget requirements.

On one hand, Republicans at the state level say their party must prove it is able to handle the responsibilities of leadership by notching legislative victories that voters will be able to judge next November.

On the other, some legislative leaders say the tax package being pushed by congressional Republicans will undoubtedly impact their states in a negative way, foisting new uncertainty into the budgetary process as tax collections have already begun to sag.

“The Republicans have got to show they can do something, they can do something good, and they can get it done while they have the power so people can judge for themselves,” said Brent Hill, the Republican president of the Idaho state Senate.

“If Republicans go into [the midterm elections] without having accomplished anything, people get impatient, and they’re going to be looking at another way.”

Iowa House Speaker Linda Upmeyer (R) said in an interview that “we’re affected in different ways by different pieces” of the tax-reform package.

“We’re waiting to get excited about it until we figure out what’s in it moving forward,” she said.

State legislators said they will closely examine key elements of the tax overhaul released Friday by members of the congressional conference committee.

The agreement appeared all but guaranteed to have the necessary support to pass next week after Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Bob Corker(R-Tenn.), two key holdouts, backed the bill on Friday.

But state legislators had not yet seen the final bill, which was released Friday evening. And the details matter, because many states make their tax codes conform to the federal code. That means a change in Washington will necessitate changes in capitals across the country.

“I think we’re all grappling with the uncertainty of the federal government,” said Joyce Peppin, the Republican majority leader in the Minnesota state House.

What makes the balancing act more difficult is that the overhaul in the federal code will mean some states will be guessing about the fiscal impact those changes will have on their budgets.

Forty-nine states have constitutional requirements to balance their budgets, and making significant changes can lead to an imbalance quickly.

“When you’re guessing, you don’t have to be off very far to find yourself with a shortfall,” said Hill, a retired accountant.

Many states are teetering on the brink of budgetary crisis even before the tax package passes.

State and local government tax revenue increased by 1.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017 compared with a year before, a significant slowdown from the 2.2 percent average growth rate for the prior four quarters, according to a new report from the Rockefeller Institute of Government. Eleven states showed a decline in total state tax revenue.

Other Republicans said the tax overhaul might inadvertently harm small businesses in their states. Deb Peters, a Republican state senator from South Dakota and president of the National Conference of State Legislators, said she worried there would be “unintended consequences” from provisions relating to pass-through corporations.

“They’re going to see an automatic increase in jobs because people are going to have to close their small service business and get a job because the tax liability is going to go through the roof. It’s not going to be affordable,” Peters said.

The political consequences of passing the Republican tax overhaul is uncertain as well.

Some Republicans warned that members of their party in Washington simply had to secure a major legislative win before their first full year of government control came to an end.

“If Republicans cannot get their act together in Congress, there will be a trickle-down effect on our states,” said David Long, the Republican president of the Indiana Senate.

Others point to poll numbers that show the plan is deeply unpopular. A Harvard CAPS-Harris survey found 64 percent of Americans oppose the tax plan, including seven in 10 independents. More voters in that survey said they thought the plan would raise their taxes than said it would lower them.

A CBS News poll last week also found that 76 percent of Americans believed the plan would benefit corporations, and 69 percent said it would help the wealthy. Just 35 percent said they backed the plan.

The opposition does not come solely from Democrats and independents.

In the Senate, Corker had long been concerned about the bill adding to the deficit, while Rubio wanted higher child tax credits before signing off on the plan.

Hill, the Idaho Republican, said he too was concerned about deficit spending.

“Not all Republicans are really all that happy about the tax reform and the way that’s going, too,” he said.

Why depression and suicide are rampant among American farmers

New York Post

Why depression and suicide are rampant among American farmers

By Salena Zito December 16, 2017

Retired physician Jeffrey Menn

NORWALK, WIS. — Not long ago, a local farmer here plunged into a depression so intense that he could barely muster the strength to leave his bed.

The 40-something father of eight went dark for weeks, despite the enormous amount of daily work needed to keep his family farm going.

“If you are running a small farm, you still have to get up and milk the cows. You got to go put the crops in. There are demands that nature doesn’t let you forget,” explained Jeffrey Menn, a farmer and doctor who was familiar with his friend’s crisis. “His massive depression immobilized him. He couldn’t even get out of bed for two or three weeks. Young guy, but he got himself worked into a hole.

“It’s his wife who’s taken over the operation, and she has, let me tell you. She’s a force of nature. This woman, she gets things done. You know, eight kids, mountain of debt, but she’s out there busting her butt to make things happen.”

It could have been worse for his friend, said Menn. “Depression can lead to suicide. He’s recovered from the deeper parts but in terms of the leadership in the family, that’s now been transferred to his wife.”

A retired physician, Menn is known locally as the “cowboy doctor” for his love of riding horses and western attire. In 37 years of practice, he has become all too familiar with the impact that depression and suicide have had on the lives of farmers and their families in the western counties of Wisconsin, where he works full-time at the Neighborhood Family Clinic.

He is also a farmer.

Menn sees the crippling impact of depression several times a week at the clinic. The first thing he does is make sure visitors are getting counseling “and then we utilize medication like SSRI’s (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors) . . . which makes it harder for the patient to get to the darkest point of depression,” he said.

When he heard about the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study released in 2016, which showed farmers take their lives more often than people in any other occupation in this country, including the military, he was not surprised. “There is particularly a lot of depression in rural society. It happens for a lot of different reasons. A lot of it is our roller-coaster economics. People outside of farming, I think, understand that farming is hard work. What they don’t understand is the depth of the lows that can hit you at any one time, with just one small problem that can lead to hundreds of little problems.

“I just had the discussion today with my son-in-law,” he explained. “We sold feeder steers. We missed by about 50 pounds what we were hoping to get. Well, that was about another $15,000 worth of income we’re not going to have. That’s a big deal, because the margins are so tough.”

His brother, who works on the ranch and keeps the books, told him that their diverse operation of crops and livestock should bring in enough money to keep the 3,500-acre ranch going next year. “You know, pay taxes, make sure you have money to pay people, pay for your seed, your fertilizer. And hope to hell no big catastrophes hit you in the side of the head.”

The 2016 CDC study of approximately 40,000 suicides reported in the US in 2012 — the most recent year for which statistics are available — showed that the rate for agriculture workers is 84.5 per 100,000. The next occupation most at risk were construction, extraction, installation, maintenance and repair workers who had a suicide rate hovering around the 50 per 100,000 mark. Meanwhile, the suicide rate among American male veterans is 37 per 100,000, according to a 2016 study by the Veterans Affairs department.

The CDC research suggested that farmers’ exposure to pesticides might affect their neurological system and contribute to depressive symptoms, but for those in the Driftless area of Wisconsin, where Menn has his ranch, organic farming is thriving.

“So that is not a factor,” he said. But constant pressure of financial ruin and a cultural mindset that you should tough something out rather than seek mental-health treatment all contribute to the problem.

Societal changes, leading to a sense of isolation, are also to blame. It used to be that people knew their neighbors and went to church together while their kids attended the same schools.

“That sense of community — physically, spiritually and culturally — has sort of gone out the door,” Menn said.

All across rural America picturesque farms dot our landscape. These are the people who essentially provide the feasts that we will indulge in this Christmas season. The good news is that — like Menn — farmers still love what they do and love being part of this life.

“There’s just something great about seeing the land, seeing it as it is now in the brown and white season. Then it comes to life, and life just comes out of what looks like dead ground. It’s always amazing.”

As we enjoy the fruits of farmers’ labor in the coming days, we should remember their hard work. And never forget their sacrifice.

Trump officials decline to extend ObamaCare sign-up deadline

The Hill

Trump officials decline to extend ObamaCare sign-up deadline

by Peter Sullivan December 16, 2017

Trump officials decline to extend ObamaCare sign-up deadline The Trump administration declined to extend the ObamaCare sign-up period amid the last-minute surge of enrollees, a break with the precedent set under the Obama administration.

The enrollment period ended Friday at midnight. The Obama administration in previous years consistently extended the deadline for a few days to accommodate the high number of enrollees who wait until the last minute to enroll.

However, the Trump administration this year declined to give such an extension.

Officials declined to say whether there would be an extension for most of the day on Friday, but on Friday night the official healthcare.gov Twitter account wrote that there would not be.

For people who called the call center before the deadline and could not get through, though, there is a grace period where a representative will call them back after the deadline and they can still enroll, a practice consistent with that of the Obama administration.

Congressional Democrats had pushed for an extension of the deadline, not just for a few days but all the way to Jan. 31, which would put the sign-up period at the same length as previous years.

The period was about half as long this year, and the Trump administration cut back on outreach funding, part of the reason that experts expect fewer sign-ups this year. The final number is not yet available.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which oversees ObamaCare, said that there was an uptick in applicants near the deadline, as in previous years, but that the website worked well and an online waiting room did not need to be deployed.

“Our team worked day-and-night to help consumers have a seamless open enrollment experience,” a CMS spokesperson said. “Despite the increase in volume, both HealthCare.gov and call center operated optimally and consumers were able to easily access enrollment tools to compare plans and prices.”

This Tax Bill Is a Trillion-Dollar Blunder

Bloomberg

This Tax Bill Is a Trillion-Dollar Blunder

Congress and President Trump put politics ahead of smart reform.

By Michael Bloomberg December 15, 2017

The hour is late, but the fight is not over. Photographer: Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg

Last month a Wall Street Journal editor asked a room full of CEOs to raise their hands if the corporate tax cut being considered in Congress would lead them to invest more. Very few hands went up. Attending was Gary Cohn, President Donald Trump’s economic adviser and a friend of mine. He asked: “Why aren’t the other hands up?”

Allow me to answer that: We don’t need the money.

Corporations are sitting on a record amount of cash reserves: nearly $2.3 trillion. That figure has been climbing steadily since the recession ended in 2009, and it’s now double what it was in 2001. The reason CEOs aren’t investing more of their liquid assets has little to do with the tax rate.

CEOs aren’t waiting on a tax cut to “jump-start the economy” — a favorite phrase of politicians who have never run a company — or to hand out raises. It’s pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that.

Instead, Congress did what it always does: It put politics first. After spending the first nine months of the year trying to jam through a repeal of Obamacare without holding hearings, heeding independent analysis or seeking Democratic input, Republicans took the same approach to tax “reform” — and it shows.

The Treasury Department claimed to have more than 100 professional staffers “working around the clock” to analyze the tax cut. If true, their hard work must have been suppressed. The flimsy one-page analysis Treasury released — which accepts the White House’s reality-defying economic projections in order to claim that the tax cuts will pay for themselves and then some — is a politically driven document that amounts to economic malpractice. So does the bill itself.

The largest economic challenges we face include a skills crisis that our public schools are not addressing, crumbling infrastructure that imperils our global competitiveness, wage stagnation coupled with growing wealth inequality, and rising deficits that will worsen as more baby boomers retire.

The tax bill does nothing to address these challenges. In fact, it makes each of them worse.

EDUCATION: The bill, by limiting the deduction for state and local taxes, will make it harder for the localities to raise money for education. The burden will fall heaviest on cities with poor students, making it harder for millions of children to escape from poverty — and leaving more and more businesses with fewer qualified job applicants.

INFRASTRUCTURE: Restricting state and local tax deductions will also mean less local investment for infrastructure, and by raising deficits, the bill will constrain federal infrastructure spending. Our airports, railways and roads are in desperate need of modernization, and our energy grids are vulnerable and inefficient. Yet spending on those and other needs, which acts as a catalyst for private investment, will become more difficult.

INEQUALITY: If Congress wanted to raise real wages and reward work, there is a simple and proven way to do it: expand the earned income tax credit. Instead, it seems to believe that lower corporate tax rates will magically lead to higher wages, which fundamentally misunderstands how labor markets work.

In addition, by eliminating the requirement that individuals buy health insurance, many young and healthy people will drop out of the marketplace, causing health insurance premiums to rise for everyone else. This is nothing more than a backdoor tax increase on health care for millions of middle-class families that will leave them with less disposable income for savings, investment and spending.

DEFICITS: The bill’s cost — $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion — makes it more difficult for taxpayers to afford Medicare and Social Security for the baby boom generation, which is now hitting retirement. Republicans didn’t grapple with those costs. Instead, they kicked the can down the road. Ignoring the bill’s price tag, or pretending we needn’t worry about deficits, is like ignoring climate change or pretending we needn’t worry about its effects. I’ll say one thing for Republicans in Congress: They’re consistent.

In effect, the tax bill achieves four main things:

It takes money away from schools and students.
It restricts our ability to invest in infrastructure.
It does nothing to boost real wages while making health insurance more expensive.
It makes it harder to control the costs of Medicare and Social Security without cutting defense and other spending — or further exploding the deficit.

To what end? To hand corporations big tax cuts they don’t need, while lowering the tax rate paid by those of us in the top bracket, and allowing the wealthy to shelter more of their estates.

To be clear: I’m in favor of reducing the 35 percent corporate tax rate as part of a revenue-neutral tax reform effort. Right now, the corporate code is so convoluted, and rates so high relative to other nations (thereby creating an incentive to keep profits offshore), that the real rates companies pay can be wildly divergent. This is neither fair nor efficient. Eliminating loopholes and reining in the off-shoring of profits can and should be done in a revenue-neutral overhaul of the tax code.

Republicans in Congress will have to take responsibility for the bill’s harmful effects, but blame also falls on its cheerleader-in-chief, President Trump. A president’s job is to get the two parties in Congress to work together. Yet Trump is making the same mistake that Barack Obama made in his first two years in office — believing that his party’s congressional majority gives him license to govern without the other side.

The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future. The Republicans in Congress who must surely know it — and who have bucked party leaders before — should vote no.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Shipley at davidshipley@bloomberg.net

Recession Lurks in Fed’s Bullish New Jobs Forecasts

Bloomberg – Prophets

Recession Lurks in Fed’s Bullish New Jobs Forecasts

Unemployment is low and getting lower. To get it back up to a sustainable level, the Fed could trigger the next downturn.

By Tim Duy December 15, 2017

The unemployment rate could rise. Photographer: Luke Sharrett/ Bloomberg

There is a recession in the Federal Reserve’s forecast. You won’t see it in the growth projection, but it’s staring you in the face in the unemployment forecast. And it’s a doozy.

The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, released at the end of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, projects an unemployment rate of 3.9 percent at the end of 2018. This is well below the Fed’s current estimate of the longer-run rate of unemployment, equivalent to NAIRU, or the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, which remained at 4.6 percent.

Sustained unemployment rates below NAIRU would, in the Fed’s framework, eventually trigger above-target inflation. To counter these pressures, the Fed anticipates tighter policy to guide the unemployment rate back to 4.6 percent. This is evident in the SEP. Central bankers now project a benchmark federal funds rate of 3.1 percent by the end of 2020, compared with a neutral (or longer-run) rate of 2.8 percent. Monetary policy thus will turn from accommodative to slightly restrictive in the next couple of years.

The somewhat restrictive policy tempers economic activity sufficiently to nudge the unemployment rate back up to 4.6 percent. But therein lies the problem in this forecast. There is no evidence that the Fed can nudge the unemployment rate up 0.7 percentage points (from the projected low of 3.9 percent to 4.6 percent) without more aggressive rate increases that would trigger a recession.

Indeed, this has long been a concern of New York Fed President William Dudley:

A particular risk of late and fast is that the unemployment rate could significantly undershoot the level consistent with price stability. If this occurred, then inflation would likely rise above our objective. At that point, history shows it is very difficult to push the unemployment rate back up just a little bit in order to contain inflation pressures. Looking at the post-war period, whenever the unemployment rate has increased by more than 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, the economy has always ended up in a full-blown recession with the unemployment rate rising by at least 1.9 percentage points.

Historically, the Fed has not been successful in orchestrating an increase in unemployment of only 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points without triggering a recession. So why should we believe that the central bank can safely push up the unemployment rate by about twice that magnitude as projected in the SEP? That’s a recession all by itself.

Now consider what this forecast implies for the projection of short-term interest rates. The Fed anticipates overshooting its estimate of the neutral rate by the end of 2020. This will trigger a rise in the unemployment rate that has traditionally been recessionary in magnitude. That means it is more likely than not that soon after rates reach the top of this cycle the Fed will be cutting rates. And given the magnitude of rate cuts needed to deal with a recession, combined with the proximity to the lower bound, short rates will soon thereafter drop back to zero.

So, it is obvious why market participants would be cautious of betting against longer-term bonds with these forecasts. Because although short rates will be rising, the projected future rates will be much lower, and, arguably, will get lower with each SEP that projects a larger increase in unemployment necessary to contain inflation. The decrease in the path of expected short rates should weigh on longer-term rates. This is especially the case because persistent low inflation and continued forward guidance on policy rates are likely to continue to weigh on the term premium. This also explains the flattening yield curve and gives reason to expect an inverted yield curve in the not too distant future.

To be sure, the Fed will not say its forecast is recessionary. Officials will point to the growth expectations and say there is no recession. But unless they can explain how they intend to manage the unprecedented task of raising the unemployment rate 0.7 percentage points without toppling the economy, that recession is most definitely in these forecasts. And it won’t disappear until the Fed’s estimate of NAIRU drops dramatically.

Bloomberg Prophets: Professionals offering actionable insights on markets, the economy and monetary policy. Contributors may have a stake in the areas they write about.

To contact the author of this story: Tim Duy at duy@uoregon.edu

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Daniel Moss at dmoss@bloomberg.net

ALS Patient Asks Arizona Senator McCain To Help Save His Life

MoveOn.org

“Senator John McCain, you’re fighting for your life just like I am.” – Ady Barkan, who went viral for his conversation with Senator Jeff Flake on a plane, now pleads with John McCain to vote NO on the GOP tax plan.

Arizonians, tell Senator John McCain to do the right thing by the American people, and vote down this tax bill: (855) 378-7316

ALS Patient to Sen. McCain: Keep Your Promise

"Senator John McCain, you're fighting for your life just like I am." – Ady Barkan, who went viral for his conversation with Senator Jeff Flake on a plane, now pleads with John McCain to vote NO on the GOP tax plan.Arizonians, tell Senator John McCain to do the right thing by the American people, and vote down this tax bill: (855) 378-7316

Posted by MoveOn.org on Friday, December 15, 2017

Ady Barkan, Activist with ALS: Kill the GOP tax bill.

All In with Chris Hayes

Activist Ady Barkan, who suffers from ALS, is fighting against the Republican tax bill and its potential slashing of the safety net to finance tax cuts for the rich.

“We can’t allow Donald Trump and his lying and selfish sons to rip families apart, to steal our money, to take our health care away,” says Ady. “It’s up to us to stand up.”

Watch the full interview: http://on.msnbc.com/2CmRD9Z

Activist with ALS: Kill the GOP tax bill and save my life

Activist Ady Barkan, who suffers from ALS, is fighting against the Republican tax bill and its potential slashing of the safety net to finance tax cuts for the rich."We can't allow Donald Trump and his lying and selfish sons to rip families apart, to steal our money, to take our health care away," says Ady. "It's up to us to stand up."Watch the full interview: http://on.msnbc.com/2CmRD9Z

Posted by All In with Chris Hayes on Thursday, December 14, 2017

Obstacles emerge as GOP races to tax finish

The Hill

Obstacles emerge as GOP races to tax finish

By Alexander Bolton, Naomi Jagoda and Scott Wong – December 14, 2017

A revolt from two Republican senators concerned about the Child Tax Credit and the absence of two more Republican senators because of illness has injected fresh uncertainty into the GOP’s tax bill push.

The Senate was expected to vote first on the $1.5 trillion tax package, but that is now in doubt as GOP leaders aren’t absolutely sure they’ll have enough votes early next week to pass it.

Leaders have little room for error. The Christmas recess is fast approaching and soon they will see their Senate majority fall by one vote because Democrat Doug Jones won the Alabama special election on Tuesday.

Jones could be sworn into office as soon as Dec. 26, though it’s more likely that he will be seated after New Year’s Day.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) lobbed a bomb into the final negotiations Thursday by threatening to vote against the bill unless it makes the Child Tax Credit more generous to people who don’t pay income taxes.

“Right now it’s only $1,100. It needs to be higher than that,” Rubio told reporters, referring to the amount of the credit that is refundable in the Senate-passed tax bill. The amount was indexed to inflation.

“I understand that this is a process of give and take, especially when there’s only a couple of us fighting for it,” he said. “Given all the other changes they’ve made in the tax code leading into it, I can’t in good conscience support it unless we are able to increase the refundable portion of it.”

Rubio is working with Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), a member of the conference committee working on the final tax bill.

Lee’s office says he’s undecided about how to vote, pending the outcome of the Child Tax Credit debate, while Scott said, “I’m certainly interested in seeing it sweeter.”

Making the Child Tax Credit fully refundable would cost $87 billion over 10 years — a significant amount that won’t be easy to pay for. Negotiators are already straining to cover the costs of other fixes, such as lowering the top individual tax rate to 37 percent and allowing people to deduct up to $10,000 for state and local taxes.

It does not appear, however, that the Child Tax Credit will be indexed to inflation in the bill, which means middle-class families would likely see the benefit shrink in future years.

Republican leaders earlier this week said they planned to pass the revised tax bill through the Senate first and then through the House.

One reason they cited was that it would give them some breathing space in case the Senate parliamentarian ruled against some of the last-minute changes hammered out by negotiators in recent days.

But a Senate-first approach was thrown into doubt Thursday because of the debate over the Child Tax Credit and the prolonged absence of two senior lawmakers, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Thad Cochran (R-Miss.).

McCain is at Walter Reed Medical Center receiving treatments from the side effects of cancer therapy, while Cochran is recovering from an operation to remove a lesion from his nose. Both of them missed every Senate vote this week.

A senior GOP aide said leaders can’t be completely sure that McCain will be back, given the severity of his illness, calling his possible absence next week, “a serious problem.

An aide to Cochran said his boss “is in Washington and expects to vote for the tax plan when it comes to the Senate next week.”

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) told reporters Thursday that he now doesn’t know which chamber will move first on the tax bill, which means it may take Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) more time than expected to line up the votes.

Senate Republican Whip John Cornyn (Texas) confirmed Thursday evening that the timing of the bill is up in the air.

“That’s in some flux,” he said, but added, “in all likelihood, we’ll be voting on Tuesday.”

Cornyn expressed confidence that negotiators would be able to bring Rubio around to voting yes.

“We’re still working with him and expect to satisfy his concerns,” he said.

Cornyn also voiced confidence in McCain’s return.

“My expectation is he’ll be here. He’s resting up and so we hope to see him then,” he said.

Republicans control 52 Senate seats and can afford only two defections, as Democrats are expected to vote in unison against the legislation. Vice President Mike Pence would break a 50-50 tie.

Pence announced Thursday that he would delay a trip to Israel and Egypt next week in case his vote is needed.

Leaders lost one Republican, Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), when they first passed the bill through the Senate earlier this month, and he appears unlikely to back the final legislation.

Corker told reporters “the issues I had before are still there,” though he hasn’t ruled out voting for the bill when it comes back to the floor next week.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), another key swing vote, hasn’t yet committed to voting for the bill. She has expressed concern over the lowering of the top individual rate from 39.6 percent to 37 percent.

But Collins has won other major concessions, such as the $10,000 deduction for state and local taxes, as well as a promise from Pence and GOP leaders to pass legislation to subsidize insurance companies and set up high-risk insurance pools for sick people.

The various proposals to raise more revenue to offset the cost of tax relief could prove controversial.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orin Hatch (R-Utah) told The Washington Post Thursday that one option for saving money is to phase out the individual tax cuts in 2024, a year earlier than the original Senate bill envisioned. Other senators denied that the idea is under consideration, however.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said the final bill will set higher tax rates for cash and assets that companies have stashed oversees — 15 percent for cash and 8 percent of other assets, rates higher than were set in the Senate- and House-passed bills.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) described some of the pay fors as “a little bit of spinach” for the business community, such as extending the timeline over which companies may write off certain assets.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) said members of the conference committee would be able to sign or not sign the group’s report on Friday morning from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m.

He said the bill will be posted online for the public later in the day.

Peter Sullivan contributed.

Parents mourn son’s ‘senseless’ and ‘horrific’ death following alleged hazing incident at LSU fraternity

ABC Good Morning America

Parents mourn son’s ‘senseless’ and ‘horrific’ death following alleged hazing incident at LSU fraternity

Catherine Thorbecke, Good Morning America December 14, 2017

Watch: Family of LSU pledge killed in suspected hazing incident speaks out

PHOTO: Maxwell Gruver is seen in this undated photo shared by his mother, Rae Ann Feldner Gruver, on Facebook on Sept. 14, 2017.

The mother of the Louisiana State University student who died following an apparent hazing incident at a fraternity said she believes her son was murdered, telling ABC News, “Nobody can physically drink that much, you can’t, you have to be forced.”

“This shouldn’t have happened,” Rae Ann Gruver said in an exclusive interview with ABC News’ Amy Robach three months after her son, Max Gruver, 18, died following a night of drinking and alleged hazing at the Phi Delta Theta fraternity’s LSU chapter.

PHOTO: Rae Ann Gruver and Stephen Gruver speak to ABC News Amy Robach about the death of their 18-year-old son, Max Gruver.

ABC News. Rae Ann Gruver and Stephen Gruver speak to ABC News’ Amy Robach about the death of their 18-year-old son, Max Gruver.

On the night of September 13, Max Gruver and other fraternity pledges participated in a game dubbed “Bible Study,” where pledges were asked questions about the fraternity and ordered to drink alcohol if they answered questions incorrectly, according to an affidavit filed by LSU police in October.

Max Gruver was pronounced dead on September 14, according to authorities. A preliminary autopsy revealed that he had “a highly elevated blood alcohol level plus the presence of THC,” according to the East Baton Rouge Parish Coroner’s Office.

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Stephen Gruver, Max’s father, told ABC News that they eventually found out that his son’s blood-alcohol level was .496, or approximately six times the legal limit.

“We learned that the hospital’s gauge stops at .46, it doesn’t go any higher,” Stephen Gruver said. “And that was the next day. So that night, I’m sure it was enough to kill you.”

Ten current and former fraternity members were arrested and face potential charges ranging from misdemeanor hazing to felony negligent homicide. The East Baton Rouge District Attorney’s office told ABC News on Wednesday that the defendants have yet to be formally charged and no pleas have been entered.

PHOTO: Louisiana State University Police investigating after a Phi Delta Theta fraternity pledge died on Sept. 14, 2017.

Hilary Scheinuk/The Advocate via AP. Louisiana State University Police investigating after a Phi Delta Theta fraternity pledge died on Sept. 14, 2017.

When asked if she believed her son was murdered, Rae Ann Gruver responded “yes.”

“It’s senseless,” she added of the allegations that her son was forced to consume alcohol prior to his death. “I mean, how is making your brother do all these things, and humiliating somebody, a brotherhood?”

“How does that bond you?” she added. “That’s what I just don’t understand … It’s just horrific.”

Rae Ann Gruver added that they were initially encouraged by the research they had done about the fraternity their son chose to join.

“We went on the computer, we looked up on their national chapter,” she said, adding that it claimed to be a hazing- and alcohol-free environment.

She said they were initially unaware of any past reports of drinking and hazing at the fraternity, and thought “our son made a great decision with this fraternity.”

PHOTO: Rae Ann Gruver and Stephen Gruver pose with their children in this undated family photo. Rae Ann Gruver and Stephen Gruver pose with their children in this undated family photo.

“If we had found out just a year ago a fraternity had had a hazing incident, we might be like … with Max, like, ‘I don’t know that this is the one for you,'” she added.

Rae Ann Gruver recalled the last time she hugged her son, when she dropped him off at LSU on his freshman move-in day.

“I actually have a picture of the last hug of him and I,” Rae Ann Gruver said. Stephen Gruver added when they dropped him off at school they had no idea “that was the last time” they would see him alive.

Rae Ann Gruver said they are sharing their family’s heartbreak in order to prevent what happened to their son from happening to others, and called on students to speak up if they suspect something is off.

“They need to step up if they see something is wrong … Don’t be scared,” she said. “You could possibly be saving somebody’s life.”

The Phi Delta Theta fraternity has shuttered its LSU chapter and revoked its charter following Max Gruver’s death. The fraternity’s national chapter posted a statement on it’s website immediately following his death saying they “fully support local law enforcement in their decision to move forward and file charges against all of those alleged to be involved with the passing of Maxwell Gruver.”

A spokesperson for LSU told ABC News that a Greek Life Task Force has been established to investigate the school’s culture and environment and will write a report with recommendations for improvements by the end of January 2018. Meanwhile, Greek organizations can have registered, alcohol-free, on-campus events.

ABC News’ Emily Shapiro and Karma Allen contributed to this report

New York Post

Mom of ‘Bible study’ frat hazing victim: My son was murdered

By Jackie Salo December 14, 2017

Mom of ‘Bible study’ frat hazing victim: My son was murdered Rae Ann and Max GruverFacebook

The mom of a Louisiana State University student who reportedly died after a fraternity hazing event dubbed “Bible study” believes her son was murdered.

Max Gruver, an 18-year-old freshman, was found unresponsive in September following a Phi Delta Theta meeting where fraternity pledges were allegedly ordered to play a game involving excessive boozing, ABC News reported.

“Nobody can physically drink that much, you can’t, you have to be forced,” Rae Ann Gruver told ABC News.

While at the meeting, Max and other pledges were allegedly forced to drink when they answered questions in the game wrong, according to police.

The freshman was pronounced dead at a hospital the next morning after Phi Delta Theta members couldn’t tell if he was breathing on a couch at the fraternity house.

The hospital told his family that his blood-alcohol level when he arrived was about .496.

“We learned that the hospital’s gauge stops at .46, it doesn’t go any higher,” his dad Stephen Gruver told ABC News. “And that was the next day. So that night, I’m sure it was enough to kill you.”

When asked if his death was a murder, his mom said: “Yes, I believe so.”

Ten people are charged in his death with at least one suspect facing a negligent homicide charge.