Farming – Organic Farming – Page 20

Is the Atlantic Ocean current system nearing collapse? Scientists weigh in

CBS News

Is the Atlantic Ocean current system nearing collapse? Scientists weigh in

Li Cohen – July 31, 2023

A study out this week raised a dire warning about the future of the planet and humanity, suggesting a system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean could totally collapse as early as 2025 — a frightening scenario that was the premise for the 2004 film “The Day After Tomorrow.”

But some scientists say that while a collapse is possible, it’s just one of many potential scenarios that could unfold and is unlikely to occur this century.

The study, published in Nature Communications, focuses on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a system of ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean. This system is part of a global conveyor belt as it circulates water from north to south in the Atlantic, helping disperse warm waters. This system, along with other ocean currents, is crucial to helping maintain the Earth’s climate — and scientists believe it is being affected by climate change, as melting ice alters the balance in northern waters.

The AMOC “is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region,” the study says, adding that there has been other research in recent years indicating that its circulation is weakening.

“We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future [carbon] emissions,” it says.

Peter Ditlevsen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen’s Niels Bohr Institute and the lead author of the study, told CBS News he believes it’s “most likely” the system could collapse in about 30 years, around 2057. In the study, the range for a collapse was estimated to be anywhere between 2025 and 2095.

But, he says, there’s an “uncertainty”: “You cannot be completely sure.”

That’s because measurements of the AMOC only go back 20 years, providing a small amount of data to work into configurations. So his team looked at records of sea surface temperatures and climate model simulations to try to predict the fate of the current system.

The global conveyor belt, shown in part here, circulates cool subsurface water and warm surface water throughout the world / Credit: NOAA

“We know that there’s a tipping point out there in the future. And that when you approach that tipping point, they start to be unstable in a very specific way,” Ditlevsen said.

But Marlos Goes, a scientist at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, said the likelihood of this study’s results coming to fruition within this century “is very small.” Such a timeframe, he said, is just “one scenario … out of hundreds.”

According to state-of-the-art climate models and the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group that works to assess the science behind climate change, “it’s not going to collapse in the 21st century at all,” Goes said.

“It may in the following century. It depends on the [emissions] pathways,” he told CBS News. “If the emissions go unabated the way they are going right now … that could be a potential force for this collapse. But the probability of that single scenario that they analyzed in that study is very unlikely.”

What is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?

The AMOC is a long current cycle in the Atlantic Ocean that transports warm water across the globe. It’s an incredibly slow-moving system that takes roughly 1,000 years to move any given cubic meter of water through its entirety, according to NOAA.

It is part of the global conveyor belt, a system of deep ocean currents driven by temperature, salinity and the wind on the ocean surface. The belt begins where warm water from the Gulf is thrust into a cold atmosphere of the Norwegian Sea. From there, the now much cooler water sinks lower into the ocean and is carried south. The conveyor belt takes that cold water all the way down to Antarctica.

Is the Gulf Stream going to collapse?

The Gulf Stream is a warm ocean current that runs from the coast of Florida and up to North Carolina, where it then diverts and goes across the Atlantic. It’s also part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The latest study makes no mention of the Gulf Stream, specifically, but because it is part of this system, it would be impacted by such a collapse.

However, Goes told CBS News that wouldn’t disappear. The Gulf Stream is primarily driven by wind rather than temperature and salinity, as the AMOC as a whole is, meaning it would still function.

This image by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center shows the temperature of the Gulf Stream along the U.S. East Coast. / Credit: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center — This image by NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center shows the temperature of the Gulf Stream along the U.S. East Coast. / Credit: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center

“We would have a Gulf Stream just if we had the wind, if we didn’t have this formation in the North Atlantic,” Goes said. “…So even if the AMOC collapses, we’ll still have a Gulf Stream, but it would be much weaker.”

What would happen if the AMOC shut down?

A collapse of the system was the inspiration for the 2004 disaster film “The Day After Tomorrow.” In the movie, ocean current systems stopped because of global warming, triggering another Ice Age.

But Ditlevsen said, “That’s not gonna happen.” The principle of it, however, is the same, he said.

“You get colder Europe, northern Atlantic region, which is maybe not nice for us living in Scandinavia because it will be more similar to what’s going on in Alaska,” he said.

“But worse is that, the heat that’s not coming here stays in the tropics, heating them even more,” he continued. “The livelihood of people in the tropics can be severely threatened by this. … These are climate changes that are going to happen very fast.”

The AMOC won’t collapse just yet, some say — but it is slowing

Even though Goes says the chances of the AMOC collapsing within the next few decades are low, the current system is at risk. In 2021, another study found that the system is the weakest it’s been in at least 1,600 years. Researchers found that the current has slowed down an “unprecedented” amount — 15% since 1950.

Other research has found that it could be reduced up to 45% within the next 70 years or so.

Goes said that even just a slowdown of the currents, and not a total collapse, could impact people around the world.

“Generally, when the AMOC weakens or collapses, you have a cooling of the North Atlantic because this heat wouldn’t be carried further north, and there’s a warming of the South Atlantic. This would shift the precipitation patterns further south,” he said. “And that could influence all the sub-Sahara, the African and South American continents in the tropical bands. It would have influence on the storms in the North Atlantic, in Europe.”

But it would also release even more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The ocean absorbs 90% of the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and without the current, the ocean won’t be able to absorb as much, Goes said, a situation that would only add to the already rampant global warming the planet is facing. It would also increase sea levels along the U.S. coast.

Urgent action could stop a slowdown

A drastic change or shutdown of the AMOC wouldn’t necessarily be detectable right away, Goes said. In fact, it could take 40 to 50 years to emerge.

“By the time we detect that, it will be too late,” he said. “We really need to act now. This is one of the tipping points of the world.”

Once a tipping point such as a slowdown or shutdown of the AMOC is passed, it could cause a cascade of impacts that could cause “irreversible and severe changes in the climate system,” according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Even though a full collapse of the AMOC within the next few decades isn’t probable, it is possible, Goes said, and it could come with high risk.

Scientists are continuing to monitor the system to learn what they can about its current state. But to help prevent a continued slowdown or a potential full shutdown, both Goes and Ditlevsen agreed that global emissions must be reduced drastically. Those emissions, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, are trapping heat in the atmosphere and causing sea ice to melt. When that ice melts, it adds fresh water to the AMOC, disrupting the salinity and temperature it relies on to move.

“If we stop our emissions, it will not collapse,” Ditlevsen said. “The disturbing part about this study is that we have to react much faster than we perhaps would like to do. … It’s yet another wake-up call or warning sign that we have to react faster than we do.”

Scientists Say Atlantic Current Collapse Could Lead to Extreme Cold in Europe and North America

Futurism

Scientists Say Atlantic Current Collapse Could Lead to Extreme Cold in Europe and North America

Victor Tangermann – July 31, 2023

Researchers are warning that the crucial ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse as soon as 2025 — an impending, climate change-fueled disaster that could usher in a new era of extreme temperature fluctuations.

It’s important to note that not every scientist is convinced by this assessment. And though the researchers say the collapse could take place as soon 2025, they also say it could take another 70 years.

That said, a team of researchers led by Peter Ditlevsen, professor and climate researcher at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark anticipate in a paper published in the journal Nature Communications that the currents could collapse anywhere between 2025 and 2095 — if we don’t cut global carbon emissions, that is.

If it were to collapse, much of the Western world could be plunged into an extended period of extreme cold — a counterintuitive result of climate change. Previous collapses, which have predominantly occurred during ice ages many thousands of years ago, have indeed led to temperatures going haywire.

“I think we should be very worried,” Ditlevsen told The Guardian. “This would be a very, very large change. The AMOC has not been shut off for 12,000 years.”

Back in 2021, researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany warned in a separate paper that the AMOC is being driven to the brink of collapse due to climate change. In the short term, this collapse could cause temperatures to plunge in Europe and North America, resulting in prolonged periods of extreme cold.

And if the planet’s past history is anything to go by, the stakes are significant. 12,000 years ago, the melting of a massive glacial lake plunged Europe into an extreme cold spell for almost a millennium.

Now, by analyzing statistics from the last 150 years, Ditlevsen and his team say they’ve calculated with a 95 percent certainty that the AMOC will collapse between 2025 and 2095.

“Shutting down the AMOC can have very serious consequences for Earth’s climate, for example, by changing how heat and precipitation are distributed globally,” Ditlevsen said in a statement.

“While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to challenging living conditions,” he added.

This change could be far more rapid than the incremental 1.5 degrees Celsius rise caused by climate change over a century. With a collapsed AMOC, we’d be looking at far more extreme changes in the ten to 15 degrees Celsius range over just a decade.

“Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible,” Ditlevsen said.

But while researchers generally agree with this final conclusion, not everybody is convinced the AMOC is about to, well, run amok.

For one, the conclusion contradicts the latest findings of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which found in its most recent report that the current was unlikely to just collapse within this century.

“The work provides no reason to change the assessment of the [IPCC],” Jochem Marotzke of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, told Politico.

“We just don’t have the evidence to state that it has declined,” Penny Holliday, researcher at the UK’s National Oceanography Center, told the BBC. “We know that there is a possibility that AMOC could stop what it’s doing now at some point, but it’s really hard to have certainty about that.”

At the same time, while we may never get a 100 percent accurate prediction — after all, our planet’s climate systems are incredibly complex — we should still heed Ditlevsen and his colleagues’ warning.

“We do still have to take the idea seriously that there could be abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate system,” University of Reading atmospheric scientist Jon Robson told the BBC. “But the exact predictions that it will happen — and within this time frame — you have to take that with some skepticism.”

Why Republicans can’t get out of their climate bind, even as extreme heat overwhelms the US

CNN

Why Republicans can’t get out of their climate bind, even as extreme heat overwhelms the US

Analysis by Ella Nilsen, CNN – July 30, 2023

Deadly heatwaves are baking the US. Scientists just reported that July will be the hottest month on record. And now, after years of skepticism and denial in the GOP ranks, a small number of Republicans are urging their party to get proactive on the climate crisis.

But the GOP is stuck in a climate bind – and likely will be for the next four years, in large part because they’re still living in the shadow of former president and 2024 Republican frontrunner Donald Trump.

Even as more Republican politicians are joining the consensus that climate change is real and caused by humans, Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric has driven the party to the right on climate and extreme weather. Trump has called the extremely settled science of climate change a “hoax” and more recently suggested that the impacts of it “may affect us in 300 years.”

Scientists this week reported that this summer’s unrelenting heat wave would have been “virtually impossible” were it not for the planet-warming pollution from burning fossil fuels. They also confirmed that July will go down as the hottest month on record – and almost certainly that the planet’s temperature is hotter now than it has been in around 120,000 years.

Yet for being one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century, climate is rarely mentioned on the 2024 campaign trail.

“As Donald Trump is the near presumptive nominee of our party in 2024, it’s going to be very hard for a party to adopt a climate-sensitive policy,” Sen. Mitt Romney, a Republican from Utah, told CNN. “But Donald Trump’s not going to be around forever.”

When Republicans do weigh in on climate change – and what we should do about it – they tend to support the idea of capturing planet-warming pollution rather than cutting fossil fuels. But many are reticent to talk about how to solve the problem, and worry Trump is having a chilling effect on policies to combat climate within the party.

“We need to be talking about this,” Rep. John Curtis, a Republican from Utah and chair of the House’s Conservative Climate Caucus, told CNN. “And part of it for Republicans is when you don’t talk about it, you have no ideas at the table; all you’re doing is saying what you don’t like. We need to be saying what we like.”

Extreme weather changes GOP minds

With a few exceptions, Republicans largely are no longer the party of full-on climate change denial. But even as temperatures rise to deadly highs, the GOP is also not actively addressing it. There is still no “robust discussion about how to solve it” within the party, said former South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis, who now runs the conservative climate group RepublicEn, save for criticism of Democrats’ clean-energy initiatives.

“The good news is Republicans are stopping arguing with thermometers,” Inglis told CNN. Still, he said, “when the experience is multiplied over and over of multiple days of three-digit temperatures in Arizona and record ocean temperatures, people start to say, ‘this is sort of goofy we’re not doing something about this.’”

Meanwhile, the impacts of a dramatically warming atmosphere are becoming more and more apparent each year. Romney and Curtis, two of the loudest climate voices in the party, both represent Utah – a state that’s no stranger to extreme heat and drought, which scientists say is being fueled by rising global temperatures.

“There are a number of states, like mine, that are concerned about wildfires and water,” Romney said, adding he believes Republican governors of impacted states have been vocal about these issues.

Sen. Mitt Romney is one of a handful of Republicans who wants the party to get proactive on climate solutions. - Francis Chung/POLITICO/AP — Sen. Mitt Romney is one of a handful of Republicans who wants the party to get proactive on climate solutions. – Francis Chung/POLITICO/AP

Utah and other Western states are looking for ways to cut water use to save the West’s shrinking two largest reservoirs, Lakes Powell and Mead. And even closer to home, Utah’s Great Salt Lake has already disappeared by two-thirds, and scientists are sounding alarms about a rapid continued decline that could kill delicate ecosystems and expose one of fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the nation to toxic dust.

“I think the evidence so far is that the West is getting drier and hotter,” Romney told CNN. “That means that we’re going to have more difficulty with our crops, we’re going to have a harder time keeping the rivers full of water. The Great Salt Lake is probably going to continue to shrink. And unfortunately, we’re going to see more catastrophic fires. If the trends continue, we need to act.”

An issue ‘held hostage’

While Republicans blast Democrats’ clean energy policies ahead of the 2024 elections, it’s less clear what the GOP itself would prefer to do about the climate crisis.

As Curtis tells it, there’s a lot that Republicans and Democrats in Congress agree on. They both want to further reform the permitting process for major energy projects, and they largely agree on the need for more renewable and nuclear energy.

As the head of the largest GOP climate caucus on the Hill, Curtis’ Utah home is “full solar,” he told CNN, and is heated using geothermal energy.

While at a recent event at a natural gas drilling site in Ohio, as smoke from Canada’s devastating wildfire season hung thick in the air, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was asked how he would solve the climate crisis. He suggested planting a trillion trees to help offset the pollution created by burning fossil fuels – a bill House Republicans introduced in 2020. The measure has not yet passed the House and has an uncertain future in the Senate.

Rep. John Curtis, a Utah Republican, said his home is decked out in solar panels and geothermal energy. - Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg/Getty Images — Rep. John Curtis, a Utah Republican, said his home is decked out in solar panels and geothermal energy. – Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg/Getty Images

But the biggest and most enduring difference between the two parties is that Republicans want fossil fuels – which are fueling climate change with their heat-trapping pollution – to be in the energy mix for years to come.

Democrats, meanwhile, have passed legislation to dramatically speed up the clean energy transition and prioritize the development of wind, solar and electrical transmission to get renewables sending electricity into homes faster.

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Democrats want to pass more climate legislation if they take back a full majority in Congress. He later told CNN the GOP is “way behind” on climate and there’s been “too little” progress on the party’s stances.

“I think we’d get a lot more done with a Democratic House, a Democratic president and continuing to have a Democratic Senate,” Schumer told CNN. “Unfortunately, if you look at some of the Republican House and Senate Super PACs, huge amounts of money come from gas, oil and coal.”

Even though Curtis and Romney are aligned on the party needing to talk about climate change, they differ on how to fix it. While Curtis primarily supports carbon capture and increased research and development into new technologies, Romney is one of the few Republicans speaking in favor of a carbon tax – taxing companies for their pollution.

“It’s very unlikely that a price on carbon would be acceptable in the House of Representatives,” Romney said. “I think you might find a few Republican senators that would be supportive, but that’s not enough.”

The idea certainly doesn’t have the support of Trump, or other 2024 candidates for president, and experts predict climate policy will get little to no airtime during the upcoming presidential race.

“Regrettably, the issue of climate change is currently being held hostage to the culture wars in America,” Edward Maibach, a professor of climate communication at George Mason University and a co-founder of a nationwide climate polling project conducted with Yale University, told CNN in an email. “Donald Trump’s climate denial stance will have a chilling effect on the climate positions of his rivals on the right — even those who know better.”

Even if climate-conscious Republicans say Trump won’t be in the party forever, Inglis said even a few more years may not be enough time to counteract the rapid changes already happening.

“That’s still a long way away,” Inglis said. “The scientists are saying we can’t wait, get moving, get moving.”

What frightens me about the climate crisis is we don’t know how bad things really are

The Guardian – Opinion Climate Crisis

What frightens me about the climate crisis is we don’t know how bad things really are

Roger Harrabin – July 25, 2023

As the barrage of bad news from places like Greece continues, all we can be certain of is there are many surprises lying ahead.

‘What is the use of a net zero policy if it relies in part on planting trees that may crackle in wildfire?’ Firefighters tackle wildfires on the Greek island of Rhodes, 25 July 2023. Photograph: Graeme Robertson/The Guardian

Over the past few decades, climate scientists have made huge strides in understanding the future climate. But after recent weeks of extreme heat and devastating floods it’s clear that, although climate models have provided good information about overall rising temperatures, they can’t be sure what level of destruction each notch on the thermometer will bring.

Climate modelling is extremely complex, but its fundamentals rely on basic physics – X tonnes of emissions will bring Y increase in temperature, with some error bars. Supercomputers have been able to factor in shifts in land use that will change the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface. Improved temperature records helped verify their findings.

But lately, leading researchers have made a painful confession: even their most sophisticated models can’t yet foresee exactly how Earth systems will respond to those higher temperatures.

The influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says cranking up global temperature by half a degree will bring much more extreme weather, and it can be more often, more intense, or extended in duration – but exactly how much more, it can’t precisely say.

So, for instance, we’ve already had a global temperature rise of about 1.2C: that’s in line with IPCC projections. Yet the panel couldn’t warn us about the appalling heat dome that’s been searing North America. I can’t find heat domes mentioned in the bible of climate change, the IPCC report. This periodic report inevitably lags behind new science and – under pressure from some governments and industries, as well as a desire not to scaremonger – its pronouncements tend to be conservative.

The models also couldn’t warn us accurately about the emergence of the heat trapped deep in the ocean, which soaks up 90% of the world’s excess warmth. In the 35 years I covered the environment for the BBC, I recall speculation that the warmth could stay deep for decades, perhaps centuries – not that some of it would suddenly burst up to the surface off the coast of northern Britain.

Major uncertainties remain, too, over rainfall. Good information about the future of monsoon rain would be a godsend for farmers who rely upon it – not just in India but in southern China. Unfortunately, good information on precipitation is proving a bit tricky to find.

The macro models also failed to project the effect of current elevated temperatures on ice at both poles. The former IPCC chief, Prof Bob Watson, told me: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”

This is a massive admission. He added: “Scientists are only now starting to understand the response of large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica – and it is very disturbing.”

Prof Jane Francis, director of the British Antarctic Survey, told me a few months ago the latest science on ice melt was “truly scary”.

A digital billboard displays temperature in downtown Phoenix. — ‘The US has considered itself less vulnerable. But tell that to people in Phoenix trapped under that heat dome.’ Photograph: Matt York/AP

Watson said at current rates the world would almost certainly exceed the agreed maximum temperature rise of 1.5-2C. We would be lucky to get away with 2.5C, he said. More likely, we’re heading towards 3C.

That number positively frightens many climate scientists. But, as India starts stockpiling rice with a temperature rise of 1.2C, what useful advice can scientists offer for a 3C world? Just how bad will things be by then?

Should holidaymakers avoid buying homes in Greece? China is vulnerable to extremes – how should its economy adapt? The US has considered itself less vulnerable. But tell that to New Yorkers choking on wildfire smoke, or people in Phoenix trapped under that heat dome.

While immediate harm to people grabs the headlines, what’s even more destructive could be the impact of heat and humidity on food production for an expanding population. A global shift towards a plant-based diet could halve the land and water used for agriculture – and halve the carbon emissions – but politicians fear angering voters by recommending a dietary shift.

Facing all this gloom means we need imagineers as well as climatologists. Watson said civilization will still exist in the future, but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded civilization might that be? By then we may even have triggered some natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped methane in the tundra – let’s hope not.

What we do know is that so far, the effects of heating the climate are sooner and worse than many scientists projected (in public at least). This has policy implications. The world has agreed to cut emissions to net zero by 2050, but the UN secretary general, António Guterres, says rich countries should be aiming to squeeze the timetable to 2040. But what is the use of a net zero policy if it relies in part on planting trees that may shrivel in future drought or crackle in wildfire?

To make matters worse, climate heating is one thing on a list of huge environmental problems – including pollution of the air and water, destruction of wildlife habitats, overfishing, insect population declines, loss of birds, plastic pollution, nitrates, soil loss and more.

Watson says we don’t know how these phenomena will interact with each other, but he urges politicians to err on the side of caution, as the stakes are so very high. Every 0.1C warming matters, scientists say: 1.5C is better than 1.6C. That in turn is less bad than 1.7C.

As the barrage of bad news continues, all we can be certain of is that there are many climate surprises lying ahead of us. Governments, companies and individuals need to urgently squeeze down emissions to insulate ourselves as far as possible from what we may face.

Roger Harrabin is an energy and environment analyst and a former BBC correspondent

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State grapples with rampant algae that can cause lung infections and neurological disorders: ‘A bullet in the chamber’

TCD

State grapples with rampant algae that can cause lung infections and neurological disorders: ‘A bullet in the chamber’

Stephen Proctor – July 25, 2023

Toxic algae is overtaking the largest freshwater lake in Florida, hampering the summer plans of thousands — and the situation is likely to worsen. While plans are underway to alleviate the problem going forward, some are skeptical.

What’s happening?

Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida is currently half full of bright green toxic algae, which is expected to increase throughout the summer.

“We’re looking at a bullet in the chamber here,” Eve Samples, executive director of the conservation group Friends of the Everglades, told The New York Times of the growing bloom.

A handful of conditions allow the dangerous algae to thrive. According to reporting, the severity of the algal bloom is largely due to our overheating planet, which has caused increased storms and rainfall that have stirred up phosphorus that the algae need to grow. The phosphorous has mostly been sourced by fertilizer runoff from rivers upstream that feed into the lake. Rising levels of carbon dioxide pollution, which the algae need, intensify the problem.

While blooms of algae aren’t uncommon for Florida in the summer months, blooms of this magnitude are, and they seem to be occurring more often.

In 2018, Lake Okeechobee experienced a similar bloom that leaked into surrounding canals and the Caloosahatchee River. That year, toxin-producing algae exploded in both fresh and saltwater ecosystems, leading to former Governor Rick Scott to declare a state of emergency.

Downstream algae outbreaks from Okeechobee’s outflows also significantly impacted coastal communities in 2013, 2016, and 2018, causing beaches to be closed and businesses to shut down. Some residents were evacuated as well.

Why toxic algae is concerning

The Florida Department of Health issued a health alert in June warning the public to exercise caution in and around the area of Lake Okeechobee. Those looking for summer fun in the lake were warned not to swim, wade, ski, or boat where there is a visible bloom. They were also told to keep pets away from the water, and for good reason.

The toxic algae overtaking Lake Okeechobee can cause major health issues for humans and animals, including lung infections, organ damage, and neurological disorders. The algae-contaminated water is so harmful that even boiling it will not eliminate the toxins, according to health officials.

What’s being done about the toxic algae

The Army Corps of Engineers is undertaking a massive project to combat the growing issue of toxic algae affecting not only Lake Okeechobee, but the surrounding area as well.

A 10,500-acre reservoir expected to be completed in 10 years or so will capture at least some of Okeechobee’s toxic outflows. This is in addition to the recently completed 6,500-acre artificial wetland designed to remove nutrient pollution before water flows out into the Everglades.

Some are skeptical, though, of the project’s impact, as the new reservoir will fill to capacity after draining only 6 inches of water from Lake Okeechobee, per The New York Times.

An earlier proposal for a 60,000-acre system was scrapped due to objections from the local agricultural community.

Phoenix heat, people ration AC due to cost

Associated Press

Homes become ‘air fryers’ in Phoenix heat, people ration AC due to cost

Isabella O’Malley – July 20, 2023

FILE - Manuel Luna, left, a volunteer at the Salvation Army, gives out items to a patron at a cooling station on July 19, 2023, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File) — Manuel Luna, left, a volunteer at the Salvation Army, gives out items to a patron at a cooling station on July 19, 2023, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)

FILE - JP Lantin, right, owner of Total Refrigeration, and service tech Michael Villa, work on replacing a fan motor on an air conditioning unit July 19, 2023, in Laveen, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File) — JP Lantin, right, owner of Total Refrigeration, and service tech Michael Villa, work on replacing a fan motor on an air conditioning unit July 19, 2023, in Laveen, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)

FILE - After finishing up an air conditioning repair call, Michael Villa, a service tech with Total Refrigeration, finds shade as he wipes sweat from his face July 19, 2023, in Laveen, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File) — After finishing up an air conditioning repair call, Michael Villa, a service tech with Total Refrigeration, finds shade as he wipes sweat from his face July 19, 2023, in Laveen, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)

FILE - Michael Villa, a service tech at Total Refrigeration, works on a commercial air conditioning roof unit July 19, 2023, in Laveen, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)

FILE - Tony Berastegui Jr., 15, right, and his sister Giselle Berastegui, 12, drink water July 17, 2023, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)

Temperatures have peaked at or above 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) the entire month of July in Phoenix. Air conditioning, which made modern Phoenix even possible, is a lifeline.

When a cloudless sky combines with outdoor temperatures over 100 F, your house turns into an “air fryer” or “broiler,” as the roof absorbs powerful heat and radiates it downward, said Jonathan Bean, co-director of the Institute for Energy Solutions at the University of Arizona. Bean knows this not only from his research, he also experienced it firsthand this weekend when his air conditioner broke.

“This level of heat that we are having in Phoenix right now is enormously dangerous, particularly for people who either don’t have air conditioning or cannot afford to operate their air conditioner,” said Evan Mallen, a senior analyst for Georgia Institute of Technology’s Urban Climate Lab.

Yet some are cutting back on AC, trying to bear the heat, afraid of the high electricity bills that will soon arrive.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-11-1/html/r-sf-flx.html

Camille Rabany, 29, has developed her own system to keep herself and her 10-month-old Saint Bernard Rigley cool during the Arizona heat wave. Through trial and error, Rabany found that 83 F is a temperature she is willing to tolerate to keep her utility bill down.

By tracking the on-peak and off-peak schedule of her utility, Arizona Public Service, with the help of her NEST smart thermostat, Rabany keeps her home that hot from 4 to 7 p.m., the most expensive hours. She keeps fans running and has a cooling bed for Rigley, and they both try to get by until the utility’s official peak hours pass.

“Those are the hours that I have it at the hottest I’m willing to have it because I have a dog,” she said. Last month, Rabany said her utility bill was around $150.

Emily Schmidt’s home cooling strategy in Tempe, Ariz. also centers around her dog. Air conditioning is “constantly a topic of conversation,” with her partner, too, she said.

“Sometimes I wish I could have it cooler, but we have to balance saving money and making sure the house isn’t too hot for our pets.”

With the unrelenting heat of the recent weeks, “I’m honestly afraid what the electric bill will be, which makes it really hard to budget with rent and other utilities.”

Katie Martin, administrator of home improvements and community services at the Foundation for Senior Living, said she sees the pet issue, too. Older people on limited incomes are making dangerous tradeoffs and often won’t come to cooling centers when they don’t allow pets.

“In recent years we are finding that most of the seniors we serve are keeping their thermostat at 80 F to save money,” she said.

Many also lack a support network of family or friends they can turn to in case of air conditioner breakdowns.

Breakdowns can be dangerous. Models from Georgia Tech show that indoors can be even hotter than outdoors, something people in poorly-insulated homes around the world are well acquainted with. “A single family, one-story detached home with a large, flat roof heats up by over 40 degrees in a matter of hours if they don’t have air conditioning,” Mallen said.

The Salvation Army has some 11 cooling stations across the Phoenix area. Lt. Colonel Ivan Wild, commander of the organization’s southwest division, said some of the people visiting now can’t afford their electricity bills or don’t have adequate air conditioning.

“I spoke to one elderly lady and she that her air conditioning is just so expensive to run. So she comes to the Salvation Army and stays for a few hours, socializes with other people, and then goes home when it’s not as hot,” he said.

While extreme heat happens every summer in Phoenix, Wild said that a couple of Salvation Army cooling centers have reported seeing more people than last year. The Salvation Army estimates that since May 1, they have provided nearly 24,000 people with heat relief and distributed nearly 150,000 water bottles in Arizona and Southern Nevada.

Marilyn Brown, regents professor of sustainable systems at Georgia Tech, said that high air conditioning bills also force people to cut spending in other areas. “People give up a lot, often, in order to run their air conditioner… they might have to give up on some medicine, the cost of the gasoline for their car to go to work or school,” she said.

“That’s why we have such an alarming cycle of poverty. It’s hard to get out of it, especially once you get caught up in the energy burden and poverty,” Brown added.

Beatrice Dupuy contributed to this story from New York and Melina Walling contributed from Chicago.

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations.

Texas ranked worst state to live in the US, see where other states stand

USA Today

Texas ranked worst state to live in the US, see where other states stand

Amethyst Martinez and Isabelle Butera – July 19, 2023

How does life in your state compare to the rest of America?

CNBC released its rankings of the best and worst states to live in the United States last week.

Its rankings come from the network’s yearly research on the best states for business in 2023. One of the 10 criteria for the list is Life, Health & Inclusion, from which CNBC determines the best and worst states to live.

CNBC allots 350 possible points to each state, measuring categories such as per capita crime rates, environmental quality, health care and worker protections.

The research also examines anti-discrimination laws, voting rights and access to childcare. Surveys indicate a large percentage of women consider reproductive rights in deciding where they are willing to live and work, so CNBC includes abortion laws in this category.

In an aerial vies, buildings in the Dallas skyline are illuminated in blue Thursday, April 9, 2020. Cities and buildings across the nation were lighted in blue to show support for those fighting COVID-19. (Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning News via AP) ORG XMIT: TXDAM321

Texas ranked the worst state to live in the US

Texas has received the number one spot on a not-so-pleasant list: The top 10 worst places in America to live and work in 2023.

While Texas landed at number six on CNBC’s yearly America’s Top States for Business study, the state scored significantly low in one category: Life, Health & Inclusion. Factors in this category include:

crime rates
environmental quality
health care
quality and availability of childcare
inclusiveness in state laws such as reproductive rights, protections against discrimination and voting rights.

Texas received 53 out of 350 points for its 2023 Life, Health & Inclusion score, giving it an F in its Top States grade and the lowest nationwide, securing its number one spot on the list.

CNBC did mention the boom in economic opportunity across the state. In the overall Top States for Business study, Texas received sixth place, with North Carolina taking the number one spot.

Top 10 worst states to live and work

The rest of the states that landed on the top 10 worst states to live and work for 2023 were:

Texas
Oklahoma
Louisiana
South Carolina and Alabama (tie)
—
Missouri
Indiana
Tennessee
Arkansas
Florida

Vermont ranked the best state to live in the US

By contrast, Vermont won the acclaimed spot of the best place to live. Residents are statistically more stress-free and healthy. With the beautiful Green Mountains, Vermont offers the best air quality in the United States. The state provides the most accessible childcare, broad anti-discrimination protections and easy access to voting.

CNBC gave Vermont an A+ in Life, Health and Inclusion. The state’s largest weakness is worker protections, which are less stringent compared to some other states.

Top 10 best states to live and work

Vermont
Maine
New Jersey
Minnesota
Hawaii
Oregon
Washington
Massachusetts and Colorado (tie)
—
Connecticut

America’s top states for Business

CNBC examines on 86 metrics in 10 broad categories of business competitiveness when assigning its rankings. The research examines the workforce, infrastructure, cost of doing business, state laws and education, among other criteria.

Here is CNBC’s ranking for 2023.

North Carolina
Virginia
Tennessee
Georgia
Minnesota
Texas
Washington
Florida
Utah
Michigan

Another Insurance Company Halts Florida Home Policies Amid Worsening Storms

HuffPost

Another Insurance Company Halts Florida Home Policies Amid Worsening Storms

Nina Golgowski – July 18, 2023

AAA has announced that it’s scaling back some of its homeowner’s insurance coverage in Florida, with the decision aligning with several other major insurance providers amid a rise in natural disasters.

“Unfortunately, Florida’s insurance market has become challenging in recent years,” the company said in a statement Tuesday.

“Last year’s catastrophic hurricane season contributed to an unprecedented rise in reinsurance rates, making it more costly for insurance companies to operate. Prior to that, the market was already strained by increased claims costs due to inflation and excessive litigation,” the statement continued.

Only “a very small percentage” of higher exposure homeowner’s policies are affected by the change, and those policyholders have been notified that their plan will not renew, the company said. A spokesperson declined to specify the number of policies or where in the state they are located.

A collapsed home is seen in Naples, Florida, following Hurricane Ian in 2022. The Category 5 Atlantic hurricane was the third-costliest weather disaster on record.

The announcement came a week after Farmers Insurance Group announced that it would no longer write any new policies or renew existing homeowner, auto and umbrella policies for people in Florida. Last year Bankers Insurance and Lexington Insurance, a subsidiary of AIG, also pulled out of the Florida homeowners market.

“This business decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure,” Farmers said in a statement released to the Tampa Bay Times.

Farmers in May similarly said it would no longer offer new home insurance policies in California due to more frequent and intense wildfires. The insurance company blamed its decision, in a previously released statement, on “historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market.”

A skeleton in sunglasses sits beside a sign reading “Just waiting for the insurance check,” on Florida’s Sanibel Island in May. The area was hit by Hurricane Ian in 2022.

It’s getting harder to live in the Sunshine State, with Floridians paying on average about $6,000 for their yearly home insurance premium, a 42% increase compared to last year, Mark Friedlander, spokesperson for the Insurance Information Institute, recently told USA Today. The average annual premium in the U.S., in comparison, costs $1,700.

Floridians have also had to deal with exceptionally high inflation rates and housing costs amid an ongoing flood of new residents from other parts of the country.

Forecasters have meanwhile given mixed predictions on this year’s hurricane season in the Atlantic, which started last month and will last through November.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted a near-normal hurricane activity season with 12 to 17 total named storms — one to four of which it said could become major hurricanes.

Colorado State University has meanwhile predicted that the season will be “above average, with 18 named storms — four of which they predict will become major hurricanes. CSU previously estimated that the season would be “near average” but updated its prediction due to record warm sea surface temperatures in most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic.

Texas traps pregnant migrants in razor wire, pushes kids back into Rio Grande, state trooper complains

The Week

Texas traps pregnant migrants in razor wire, pushes kids back into Rio Grande, state trooper complains

Peter Weber, Senior editor – July 18, 2023

Razor wire at U.S. border in Texas Suzanne Cordeiro / AFP via Getty Images

Rolls of razor wire Texas installed along the U.S. side of the Rio Grande have ensnared several migrants, including a pregnant woman “in obvious pain” while having a miscarriage and a father trying to free his child “stuck on a trap” of razor wire–covered barrels in the water, a Texas state trooper wrote in July 3 email to a superior, the Houston Chronicle reported Monday.

The Dallas Morning News also obtained the email and a corroborating July 4 note from a second Department of Public Safety trooper. Both were identified by name. In recent weeks, as part of Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) “Operation Lone Star” border initiative, Texas has rolled out about 88 miles of razor wire along the Rio Grande and also put buoys in the middle of the river to deter migrants from crossing over from Mexico. This has sparked conflicts with the U.S. Border Patrol, complaints from local businesses, and legal challenges from Mexico.

The trooper, stationed in Eagle Pass, said Operation Lone Star service members have been ordered to push children back into the Rio Grande and told not to give water to asylum seekers even as Texas sweltered in extreme heat.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-11-1/html/r-sf-flx.html

He recounted seeing National Guard soldiers push a 4-year-old girl trying to cross the razor wire back into the river “due to the orders given to them,” adding that the girl then passed out from exhaustion in temperatures “well over 100 degrees.” The 4-year-old girl, 19-year-old pregnant woman, and others lacerated by the razor wire or injured trying to avoid it in the June 30 incidents were transferred to emergency medical services, the trooper wrote.

On June 25, he added, troopers came across a group of 120 hungry and exhausted people, including small children and nursing babies, resting along the river. The shift officer in command ordered the troopers to “push the people back into the water to go to Mexico,” the trooper recounted, and when the troopers refused and asked for new guidance, they were told to drive off. Other troopers and federal Border Patrol agents then stepped in and provided care to the migrants.

“I truly believe in the mission of Operation Lone Star,” the trooper wrote. “I believe we have stepped over a line into the inhumane.” He specifically said migrants need to be given water, and “the wire and barrels in the river needs to be taken out as this is nothing but a in humane [sic] trap in high water and low visibility.”

DPS spokesman Travis Considine told the Chronicle there is no policy against giving water to migrants and passed along emails from DPS Director Steven McCraw acknowledging seven additional cases in July of migrants needing “elevated medical attention” due to the razor wire. McCraw called for a safety audit and investigation of the trooper’s reports. A spokesman for Abbott said “Texas is deploying every tool and strategy to deter and repel illegal crossings between ports of entry,” criticizing President Biden’s border policies.

What record warm ocean temperatures could mean for hurricane season

CNN

What record warm ocean temperatures could mean for hurricane season

Jennifer Gray – July 17, 2023

Editor’s Note: A version of this article originally appeared in the weekly weather newsletter, the CNN Weather Brief, which is released every Monday. You can sign up here to receive them every week and during significant storms.

The Atlantic hurricane season is headed into uncharted territory with water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico warmer than they have ever been on record.

Seasonal forecasters are warning it means you need to prepare for a more uncertain forecast for the rest of the season with the potential for more storms and stronger ones.

Sea surface temperatures around parts of Florida and the Bahamas are warmer than 90 degrees Fahrenheit, shown here in shades of purple. - CNN Weather — Sea surface temperatures around parts of Florida and the Bahamas are warmer than 90 degrees Fahrenheit, shown here in shades of purple. – CNN Weather

Warm ocean water is one of the key ingredients for fueling hurricanes and it’s been in abundance so far this year. Scientists first sounded the alarm in April and the ocean warmth has only escalated since. Water in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic has been record warm, especially for this early in the year. It includes off the coast of Florida, where water temperatures in the Florida Keys were close to 97 degrees in some spots last week.

It is important because warm ocean water breeds stronger, bigger and wetter storms. It gives hurricanes the energy they need to grow and sometimes rapidly intensify, something hurricane forecasters told CNN we could see more of this season. Warm oceans can also lead to more evaporation and wring out more rainfall falling from any storms.

But hurricane season predictions involve more than just warm water. It’s just one factor in the birth and survival of tropical cyclones, and it is creating more uncertainty than usual in what could happen the rest of the hurricane season.

“Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty! That’s really the story going forward with this season,” Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University told me.

Klotzbach and the team at CSU are some of the pioneers of long-term hurricane season outlooks, and just increased the number of expected hurricanes and major hurricanes in their prediction for this season due to the warmer water in the Atlantic.

What makes this year even more uncertain is we are now under the influence of El Niño which typically suppresses activity in the Atlantic with increased wind shear, the changing of wind direction and speed with height which can blow budding storms to pieces and shred existing storms to death.

Klotzbach said the confluence of these record warm temperatures at the same time as a moderate to strong El Niño hasn’t been “observed historically.”

The million-dollar question right now is which will win out: warm ocean temperatures or El Niño. Early season predictions called for a near-average season, but Klotzbach and team seem to think the warm water will win out and are now calling for “an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.”

Warm water won in June. According to Klotzbach, June had the lowest wind shear in the southern Atlantic Basin since 1988. Arlene, Bret and Cindy formed as a result.

Wind shear and dry air from Saharan dust picked up in the month of July, suppressing hurricane activity for the most part, but August through October could be different.

“Most climate models are forecasting slightly to somewhat-below normal shear in August, September and even into October,” Klotzbach said. “If that were the case, we would likely have an extremely busy season given how warm the Atlantic is.”

An aerial picture taken on September 30, 2022, shows the only access to the Matlacha neighborhood destroyed in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Florida. - Ricardo Arduengo/AFP/Getty Images — An aerial picture taken on September 30, 2022, shows the only access to the Matlacha neighborhood destroyed in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Florida. – Ricardo Arduengo/AFP/Getty Images

As of now, there’s not much noteworthy on the horizon as far as tropical development goes. Subtropical Storm Don is meandering around the north-central Atlantic but poses no threat to land. Forecast models aren’t picking up any development this week. Forecasts for next week are hinting at some tropical development, but it’s far too early to have confidence in how, if or when this could materialize.

What we do know is hurricane season typically starts ramping up as we head into August. The first hurricane usually forms in early to mid-August. The eight-week span from mid-August through mid-October is when ocean temperatures are nearing their highest levels in the Atlantic, wind shear lessens considerably and when nearly 90% of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic happens.

The bottom line is this season is already unprecedented given the hot ocean temperatures, so forecasting the season in the uncharted territory we’ve entered is a challenge. We’ve got a lot of hurricane season left to go, which means you should prepare for the worst and hope for the best.