Category: Environment

‘The Day After Tomorrow’ film foretold a real and troubling trend: The Atlantic ocean’s circulation system is weakening

‘The Day After Tomorrow’ film foretold a real and troubling trend: The Atlantic ocean’s circulation system is weakening

Aylin Woodward                  
the day after tomorrow 20th Century Fox
A still from the film “The Day After Tomorrow.” 20th Century Fox

In the 2004 film “The Day After Tomorrow,” a climatologist played by Dennis Quaid warns world leaders about a rapid climate shift.

The key factor is an ocean current system called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which moves warm water from the equatorial tropics up to Europe and the north Atlantic. This influx of warmer water contributes to western Europe’s mild, temperate climate.

In the movie, the AMOC stops completely, causing an ice age to begin almost overnight. While the speed and intensity of that cold snap are hyperbolized in the film, the AMOC is very real, and research suggests a slow down of its circulation is a likely consequence of climate change.

In a paper published last week, climate scientist Niklas Boers concluded that the AMOC is approaching a tipping point. If enough fresh water from melting polar ice enters the ocean, the current system will experience an “abrupt weakening,” and destabilize, he told Insider.

A new climate report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) similarly suggests that the AMOC will very likely weaken by the end of the century.

According to Boers, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, this weakening would cause temperatures in Europe to fall, and “the cooling effect would be stronger the further north you go.”

On the US East Coast, meanwhile, sea levels would rise. Parts of central and west Africa would experience persistent drought conditions, since those areas also benefit from the AMOC’s circulation.

An on/off switch for the Atlantic’s currents
ocean currents
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation carries warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic (in red), where the water cools and sinks before flowing back south (in blue). NASA/JPL

 

When the AMOC is flowing quickly, western Europe enjoys a wet and warm climate. Scientists have likened the system to a conveyor belt: Once warmer water reaches the area around the UK, it cools and sinks to the bottom of the Labrador and Nordic Seas. Then that cold water makes a U-turn and snakes along the ocean floor, down to Antarctica’s Southern Ocean.

But if this circulation is sluggish and weak, warm tropical waters don’t get moved up, and the north Atlantic cools.

The AMOC’s speed is determined by a delicate balance of salt and fresh water. Salty water is dense, so it sinks easily. But as Greenland’s ice sheet and glaciers continue to melt, more fresh water is joining the AMOC’s salty surface water, making it lighter and less likely to sink. That clogs up the circulation’s flow.

Prior research suggests that a change in the strength of water circulation in the Atlantic really does precede abrupt climate changes. By examining ice cores dated to Earth’s last ice age, scientists have found that the AMOC alternates between two states – a strong “on” state, where the current system runs quickly, and a weak “off” state where that circulation decelerates.

“A shutdown of the AMOC is the easiest, most efficient way to disrupt the climate system,” Francesco Muschitiello, a geographer specializing in paleoclimatology at the University of Cambridge told Insider, adding, “95% of time when we talk about rapid climate change, it’s associated with AMOC.”

Still, Boers said, any cooling related to the AMOC wouldn’t look like “The Day After Tomorrow” – it “would take a few decades,” and North America “won’t get as cold as the movie suggests.”

It would take at least a few hundred years for the AMOC to re-strengthen
greenland
A small iceberg melting in southern Greenland. Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

 

In the past, when the AMOC reached a tipping point, the transition from strong to weak took a couple of decades, Boers said. But it takes much longer for the system to switch back.

“It typically took a few hundred to a few thousand years for the AMOC to go back to the strong mode,” he said, adding, “if the AMOC were to collapse to the weak mode at some point in the future, it would indeed be very hard to bring it back to the strong mode.”

According to the IPCC report, it’s possible that the AMOC will experience an abrupt collapse by 2100. That collapse, the report authors said, could be triggered by an unexpected additional melted ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has been thawing at an unprecedented rate. A 2019 study found the ice sheet was melting six times faster than it was 40 years ago.

Ocean
The Atlantic Ocean. Getty/MKnighton/Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing

 

It’s unlikely, however, that the Greenland Ice Sheet will ever melt quickly enough to completely stop the AMOC.

A full halt like the one depicted in “The Day After Tomorrow,” would only happen “if the Greenland ice sheet was to melt over the course of a few days,” Muschitiello previously told Insider.

That said, some studies suggest that the AMOC has stopped entirely in the past.

“These major distortions of the AMOC led to the coldest events ever recorded,” Muschitiello said.

In those cases, the cold events may have lasted for up to 1,000 years. If the AMOC were to shut down completely again, Boers said, the only way to undo it would be “to reverse the global temperature trend and get back to pre-industrial conditions.”

As summer winds down, concern rising over ‘multiyear drought,’ Idaho water managers say

As summer winds down, concern rising over ‘multiyear drought,’ Idaho water managers say

Nicole Blanchard                     

 

Idaho water managers are warning of the possibility of a lasting drought following the second-driest March-to-July period in the state’s recorded history.

According to an Aug. 6 drought condition update from the Idaho Department of Water Resources, officials are more worried than ever that the state’s drought won’t resolve quickly.

“With storage being rapidly depleted across the state, concern is rising that we may be entering into a multiyear drought,” wrote hydrologist David Hoekema in the report.

Hoekema said many reservoirs have been depleted this year, which means the state’s water supply will start off the next water year — which begins in October — already at a deficit. He mentioned that the Mountain Home Irrigation District and Big Wood Canal Company shut down water deliveries from storage in June, and said the Little Wood River Reservoir in Blaine County, the most drought-stricken part of the state, was at 2% storage capacity on Aug. 6.

Water resource managers in the Treasure Valley have also warned that they’ll likely have to cut the irrigation season short by a month or so. They’ve urged people to water lawns less often and find other means of conserving the dwindling water supply.

Hoekema said that when the irrigation season ends, officials can analyze what kind of snowpack Idaho will need this year to bounce back from the drought.

“On a positive note, the tropical Pacific is lining up for another La Niña this winter,” the hydrologist wrote in his report. “A La Niña typically brings higher than normal precipitation to northern Idaho, but could result in deepening drought across the southwestern United States and up into the Bear River basin.”

According to Hoekema, another La Niña system last winter provided “a near average” snowpack for Idaho by March 1. It was the scarce precipitation since then — which set record lows at snow telemetry measurement sites across Idaho and the Northwest — that created a rapidly accelerating drought that took water managers by surprise.

The report said the heart of Idaho’s drought is in the state’s central mountains, which also saw drought in 2020.

“Runoff records indicate that the Big Wood, Big Lost, and Little Lost basins may set record lows this year,” Hoekema wrote. “In other words, 2021 is likely to be considered the drought of record in those basins.”

Fire Threatens Second California Town as Heat Stokes Flames

Fire Threatens Second California Town as Heat Stokes Flames

Will Wade                   

 

(Bloomberg) — Hot, dry weather is hampering California firefighters’ efforts to combat the Dixie blaze, which swelled over the weekend to become the second-largest in state history and is threatening to engulf a second town.

The fire, which troubled utility giant PG&E Corp. said may have been sparked by one of its power lines, has ripped through more than 489,000 acres (198,000 hectares), destroying the Gold-Rush-era town of Greenville last week. It’s now spreading toward Janesville, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) northeast.

“Our intention is that we will not lose any more structures, we will not lose any more communities,” Mark Brunton, operations section chief with California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said in a briefing Sunday. “That is our priority.”

More than a dozen blazes are burning across California, fueled by a historic drought and heat waves that parched the West and created ideal wildfire conditions. Wildfires have also devastated Greece, Turkey and Siberia this year, and a landmark report Monday from the United Nations found “unequivocal” evidence that human activities have warmed the atmosphere.

The Dixie fire has been burning for almost four weeks and has destroyed more than 600 structures, according to Cal Fire, as the agency is known. The destruction is a growing risk for PG&E, which said last month that a worker had discovered a tree leaning against a power line near the start of the blaze.

The company’s shares were up 0.2% at 3:25 p.m. in New York Monday.

A judge on Friday ordered the utility to identify each of the California wildfires its equipment started this year. PG&E emerged from bankruptcy last year after sparking a series of wildfires in 2017 and 2018 that killed more than 100 people.

The Dixie fire has prompted mass evacuations as it continues to tear across the region, and was just 21% contained on Monday morning. Firefighters were aided over the weekend as the winds shifted in their favor, but higher temperatures this week are helping to fuel the blaze.

“Really hot conditions and really dry conditions are what is fueling the fire,” said Hannah Chandler-Cooley, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Sacramento. “It is still pretty dry and that is really not going to improve much.”

The Dixie Fire started on July 13 and destroyed much of the northern Sierra Nevada town of Greenville last week, leveling buildings and melting lamp posts.

“We’re really focusing on this effort just to keep it out of Janesville,” Jake Cagle, an operations sections chief with the U.S. Forest Service, said in a briefing. “We’re doing everything we can to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

California’s eight biggest wildfires have all burned since December 2017, department statistics show. Last year’s August Complex fire that destroyed more than 1 million acres remains the largest.

Powerful heat wave to cause 100-degree temperatures for 25 million in the U.S. this week

Powerful heat wave to cause 100-degree temperatures for 25 million in the U.S. this week

Andrew Freedman                  

 

Heat warnings and advisories are in effect for at least two dozen states through the end of the week. 25 million people are projected to see highs reach or eclipse 100°F this week, as yet another powerful heat dome-dominated weather pattern affects a huge swath of the country.

 

Why it matters: The heat wave will combine with drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest to aggravate an already dire wildfire situation, and bring more miserable weather to residents of Portland, Oregon, and other states hit hard by record-shattering heat in late June and early July.

  • This time around, heat and high humidity will combine to make for dangerously hot conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and Central states, too.
  • The hot and dry weather will only worsen the ongoing wildfires and potentially lead to new ignitions from thunderstorms. California’s Dixie Fire, the second-largest blaze in state history and the largest ongoing wildfire in the U.S., grew further overnight toward the 500,000-acre mark, threatening more homes.

By the numbers: A strong area of high pressure across the Pacific Northwest, also known as a “heat dome,” will ratchet up the heat from northern California to Washington state during the Wednesday-through-Saturday period in particular.

  • High temperatures of up to 112°F are possible in inland valleys in western Oregon, the National Weather Service predicts, with little overnight relief in many areas.
  • High temperatures will generally be between 10°F and 15°F above average for this time of year.

Threat level: When it comes to fire weather, the Weather Service forecast office in Medford, Oregon, is warning of “excessively hot, very unstable and dry air” across southern Oregon and northern California — where the Bootleg Fire is still burning, in addition to the Dixie and other blazes.

  • Fire weather warnings for potentially extreme wildfire behavior, including the formation of pyrocumulus clouds, go into effect on Wednesday.
  • Portland, Oregon, which set an all-time high temperature record of 116°F back in July, is predicted to reach a sizzling 104°F on Thursday.
  • Meanwhile, in the Eastern U.S., highs in the mid-to-upper 90s°F will affect the urban corridor between Washington and Boston, with scorching heat even reaching parts of New Hampshire and Maine.

Context: The heat wave comes just a day after a landmark climate science report was released by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which definitively linked the increasing frequency and severity of heat waves to human emissions of greenhouse gases.

  • The report described this connection as “established fact,” a striking increase in confidence level since its last major assessment, which is the equivalent of a CT scan for the planet, in 2013.
  • At the same time as the U.S. is feeling the heat and seeing more than 105 large wildfires burn across the country, a brutal heat wave in the Mediterranean region is continuing to fuel deadly blazes in Greece and Turkey.

World is on the brink of catastrophe, warns Government climate chief

World is on the brink of catastrophe, warns Government climate chief

Telegraph reporters                       
Alok Sharma says a Government report due out on Monday will be the "starkest warning yet" about what the future could hold - GETTY IMAGES
Alok Sharma says a Government report due out on Monday will be the “starkest warning yet” about what the future could hold – GETTY IMAGES

 

The world is getting “dangerously close” to running out of time to avert catastrophic climate change, Cop26 President Alok Sharma has said.

Mr. Sharma – who is tasked with making a success of the upcoming climate talks in Glasgow – said failing to limit warming to 1.5C would be “catastrophic”.

In an interview with the Guardian, Mr Sharma said a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due to be published on Monday, would be the “starkest warning yet” about what the future could hold.

“You’re seeing on a daily basis what is happening across the world. Last year was the hottest on record, the last decade the hottest decade on record,” he said.

He said Cop26 “has to be the moment we get this right”, adding: “We can’t afford to wait two years, five years, 10 years – this is the moment.”

“I don’t think we’re out of time but I think we’re getting dangerously close to when we might be out of time,” Mr Sharma said.

“We will see (from the IPCC report) a very, very clear warning that unless we act now, we will unfortunately be out of time.”

He added: “Every fraction of a degree rise makes a difference and that’s why countries have to act now.”

“We’re seeing the impacts across the world – in the UK or the terrible flooding we’ve seen across Europe and China, or forest fires, the record temperatures that we’ve seen in North America,” he said.

“Every day you will see a new high being recorded in one way or another across the world.”

Fires linked to environmental changes caused by global warming have been raging through Greece and parts of Europe - REUTERS
Fires linked to environmental changes caused by global warming have been raging through Greece and parts of Europe – REUTERS

 

But despite his powerful warnings, Mr. Sharma refused to condemn plans for a new oilfield off the coast of Shetland, that could see a further 150 to 170 million barrels extracted.

The Cambo oilfield could be approved before Glasgow, and potentially be in operation as far into the future as 2050.

Elsewhere, the Government has refused to rule out new licenses for oil and gas in the North Sea or a new coal mine in Cumbria.

The International Energy Agency said in May there must be no new investment in oil and gas projects and coal power plants from this year to have a hope of limiting warming to 1.5C.

But Mr. Sharma refused to criticize the UK Government’s plans for further fossil fuel extraction, saying: “Future [fossil fuel] licenses are going to have to adhere to the fact we have committed to go to net zero by 2050 in legislation.”

He added: “There will be a climate check on any licenses.”

The former business secretary came under fire this week for the volume of flights he has taken since new year in a bid to hash out a deal with countries dragging their feet on emissions targets.

But despite cries of “hypocrite” from political rivals, green groups refused to condemn him and the Government was robust in his defence.

Mr Sharma told the Guardian: “I have every week a large number of virtual meetings, but I can tell you that having in-person meetings with individual ministers is incredibly vital and actually impactful.

“It makes a vital difference, to build those personal relationships which are going to be incredibly important as we look to build consensus.”

He added he was “throwing the kitchen sink” at the negotiations.

The Cop26 climate talks are due to take place from October 31 to November 12 in Glasgow.

“Apocalyptic, catastrophic”: World leaders, activists react to “sobering” UN climate report

Axios

“Apocalyptic, catastrophic”: World leaders, activists react to “sobering” UN climate report

Jacob Knutson                        
A sweeping United Nations-sponsored review of climate science published Monday projected that the world will cross a crucial temperature threshold as early as 2030 — up to a decade sooner than previously thought.

 

Why it matters: Warming is affecting every area of the globe, the report notes, and extreme weather events are becoming more common and severe contributing to a more volatile world.

What they’re saying:

United Kingdom: “Today’s report makes for sobering reading, and it is clear that the next decade is going to be pivotal to securing the future of our planet. We know what must be done to limit global warming – consign coal to history and shift to clean energy sources, protect nature and provide climate finance for countries on the frontline,” U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement.

  • The U.K. hosts the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as the COP26 summit, in November.

United States: “The IPCC report underscores the overwhelming urgency of this moment. The world must come together before the ability to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is out of reach,” U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry said in a statement.

  • “As the IPCC makes plain, the impacts of the climate crisis, from extreme heat to wildfires to intense rainfall and flooding, will only continue to intensify unless we choose another course for ourselves and generations to come.”
  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken added in his own statement: “We cannot delay ambitious climate action any longer.”
  • Eric Lander, President Biden’s science advisor, said the report confirms “that climate change is intensifying faster than we thought.”

Activists: “The new IPCC report contains no real surprises. It confirms what we already know from thousands previous studies and reports – that we are in an emergency. It’s a solid (but cautious) summary of the current best available science,” Greta Thunberg tweeted.

  • “Today, I, and so many other young people, wake up enraged — the IPCC report is apocalyptic, catastrophic, and nothing we haven’t been screaming from the rooftops for years. Our politicians shouldn’t need a report to tell them how bad things are. We’re already living it,” Varshini Prakash, executive director of the Sunrise Movement, said in a statement.

This story will be updated with more reactions.

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Climate Change Is a ‘Hammer Hitting Us on the Head,’ Developing Nations Say

Climate Change Is a ‘Hammer Hitting Us on the Head,’ Developing Nations Say

Lisa Friedman, Hiroko Tabuchi, and Winston Choi-Schagrin

 

A neighborhood inundated by flooding in Banjarmasin, Indonesia, in January. (AP)

 

When some 200 scientists convened by the United Nations all but demanded on Monday that the nations immediately band together to cut emissions, they portrayed it as a brief window to avert the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

But as their call ricocheted around the planet, it only underscored the challenge ahead: getting the world’s biggest polluters and its most vulnerable countries to cooperate against a grave global threat.

In unequivocal terms, the new U.N. report said that the world has been so slow to cut emissions, it was certain to miss one of its basic goals to limit warming. It said atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide had not been this high in at least 2 million years, and the past decade is likely the hottest the planet has been in 125,000 years. And in unusually direct terms, it said that human activity — burning oil, gas and coal — was squarely to blame.

The report prompted outrage among some of the world’s most vulnerable countries, whose leaders demanded that rich, industrialized powers immediately reduce their planet-warming pollution, compensate poor countries for the damages caused and help fund their preparations for a perilous future.

“What science is now saying is actually happening in front of our eyes,” said Malik Amin Aslam, special assistant on climate change to the prime minister of Pakistan, where temperatures exceeded 122 degrees Fahrenheit (50 degrees Celsius) last year. “It’s like a hammer hitting us on the head every day.”

Tensions over the report’s findings are likely to course through negotiations taking place ahead of a major U.N. climate conference set for November in Glasgow.

The report concluded that essentially all of the rise in global average temperatures since the 19th century has been driven by humans burning fossil fuels, clearing forests and loading the atmosphere with greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane that trap heat.

Environmental groups said those findings will bolster international legal strategies to try to hold fossil fuel companies and governments accountable. The report may prove particularly valuable because, unlike previous reports, it focuses extensively on regional effects of climate change. That may allow environmental groups to fashion stronger, more specific legal arguments.

“It’s like a turbocharge” for some of the legal strategies that Greenpeace and other organizations have been pursuing in courts for years, said Jennifer Morgan, the executive director of Greenpeace International. Earlier this year, Greenpeace successfully sued Royal Dutch Shell in a Dutch court using evidence from an earlier U.N. report.

“I just expect the pace and the scale of the calls for action, whether they be in the courtrooms or on the streets or in the committee hearing rooms, to be clearer louder, bigger than ever before,” Morgan said.

Hours after the report was published, demonstrations were being planned for later this month in London and other cities.

The report shows that if emissions of greenhouse gases continue at the same levels or are only slightly reduced, the outcome will be continued warming and worsening effects for at least the rest of the century. But if governments make immediate, drastic cuts in emissions, they can stabilize the climate at about 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming compared to preindustrial levels.

The Earth has already warmed by about 1.1 degrees Celsius, or about 2 degrees Fahrenheit.

Despite the jolt the report sent through world capitals, it was clear that some of the biggest polluters, including China and the United States, were unlikely to make the kind of immediate pivot away from fossil fuels that scientists say is needed to hold the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius, the higher limit set by the 2015 Paris climate accord, an agreement among nations to fight global warming. Nearly every nation that signed the accord is far off track to meet its commitment.

At this point, every fraction of a degree of warming would bring ever more destructive floods, deadlier heat waves and worsening droughts as well as accelerating sea-level rise that could threaten the existence of some island nations, the report said.

The United States, which historically has pumped more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than any other country, in April pledged to roughly halve its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. While that is an ambitious goal, it is slightly below the target enshrined in law by the European Union and significantly below that of Britain.

John Kerry, President Joe Biden’s climate envoy, said the U.N. report showed that “we need all countries to take the bold steps required” to limit global warming to relatively safe levels. Unmentioned was the fact that current U.S. laws and regulations are insufficient to meet its own climate goals.

China, the world’s biggest current producer of greenhouse gases, is still increasing its emissions from power plants, transportation and industry. It plans to hit peak emissions by 2030 before starting to cut back until it no longer produces a net increase of carbon dioxide by 2060.

The Chinese government didn’t respond to the U.N. findings. But in a recent talk, the country’s top climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, objected to proposals to set new goals to cut global emissions beyond the level agreed upon by nations in 2015 as part of the Paris climate accord.

“As we’ve already achieved this consensus, there’s no need to ignite fresh controversy now over this goal,” Xie told an event organized by a Hong Kong foundation, adding, “Our issue now is taking action and stepping up.”

And in India, where emissions per capita are a fraction of those of wealthy nations yet growing at a rapid pace, the government said the U.N. findings point to the need for industrialized nations to do more. India also has been resistant to new language demanding all nations take stronger action to hold global temperatures to a 1.5 degree Celsius increase, arguing wealthy countries have not yet made good on their own targets.

“Developed countries have usurped far more than their fair share of the global carbon budget,” Bhupender Yadav, India’s environment minister, said in a statement. The report “vindicates India’s position that historical cumulative emissions are the source of the climate crisis that the world faces today,” he said.

Referring to the report as “a code red for humanity,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres renewed his call for an end to the construction of new coal-burning plants as well as an end to fossil fuel subsidies by governments. “This report must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet,” he said in a statement.

The American Petroleum Institute, which represents major oil and natural gas producers in the United States, said in a statement that “reducing methane emissions and addressing the risks of climate change are top priorities for our industry.” It added that the industry has already made gains but said, “we have more work to do.”

A representative from Shell declined to comment; Exxon Mobil did not respond to a request for comment.

For the most vulnerable countries, the report may have given new life to a fight that they have waged with mixed success in recent years to persuade wealthy nations to pay for the climate-change-related damages they are suffering.

“What’s happening in the science affects us immediately,” said Tina Stege, a climate envoy for the Republic of the Marshall Islands, a nation of coral atolls in the Pacific Ocean, much of which is only about 6 feet above sea level. Wealthier polluting countries need to step up their assistance “not just to protect our future generations, but current generations,” she said.

Vulnerable island nations said they require financial assistance for relocation efforts, early warning systems and other critical steps to adapt to a changing climate.

Wealthy nations agreed in 2009 to deliver $100 billion annually by 2020 in public and private finance to help developing countries adapt to climate change and transition to clean, renewable energy like wind and solar. That promise hasn’t been met. At the same time, poor countries have sought money to address the climate-fueled disasters happening now.

“People are suffering and somebody needs to pay for this,” said Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development at the Independent University, Bangladesh. Noting that Germany’s Cabinet recently approved $472 million to help its citizens recover from recent devastating floods, he questioned why nations could not find money for disasters being suffered by the countries that did the least to cause climate change.

Sveinung Rotevatn, Norway’s minister of climate and the environment, sidestepped the issue of whether wealthy nations would agree to pay compensation to vulnerable countries. Europe and the United States have resisted calls for climate compensation to poor nations.

“It remains of vital importance that the limited funding should be directed at saving lives, adapting to climate change and also to mitigation efforts,” Rotevatn said.

Mohamed Adow, the director of Power Shift Africa, a climate think tank based in Nairobi, said the U.N. report predicts a dire future that some are already experiencing. “Those of us who live in Africa have been aware of the urgency of the climate crisis for many years,” he said. “Lives and livelihoods have been shattered. It was time, Adow added, “for us to act on the scientific words.”

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While Delta spreads, Republicans deflect and resort to Trump demagoguery

The Guardian – Opinion – U.S. Politics

While Delta spreads, Republicans deflect and resort to Trump demagoguery

Robert Reich                             August 8, 2021

Trump Republicans are falling back on their proven method of deflecting attention by blaming immigrants crossing the southern border.

A syringe is filled with a first dose of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine at a mobile vaccination clinic in Los Angeles, California.
A syringe is filled with a first dose of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine at a mobile vaccination clinic in Los Angeles, California. Photograph: Patrick T Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

 

As America reaches the milestone of 70% of adults with at least one dose of a vaccine, the highly contagious Delta variant is surging.

Public health officials are trying to keep the focus on the urgent need for more vaccinations.

But with unvaccinated Americans – notably and conspicuously residents of states and counties that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 – succumbing to the Delta strain in large numbers, Trump Republicans are falling back on their proven method of deflecting attention by blaming immigrants crossing the southern border.

Last week, Trump issued a characteristic charge: “ICYMI: “Thousands of Covid-positive migrants passing through Texas border city,” linking a New York Post article claiming that “nearly 7,000 immigrants who tested positive for Covid-19 have passed through a Texas city that has become the epicenter of the illegal immigration surge.”

Trump has employed this racist-nationalist theme before. For years he fixed his ire on Mexicans and Central Americans from “shitholes”, as he has so delicately put it. He began his 2016 campaign by charging that “criminals, drug dealers and rapists” were surging across America’s southern border, and then spent much of the subsequent four years trying to erect a fence to keep them out.

Trump acolytes are adopting the same demagoguery.

As hospitalizations in Florida surged past 12,000 this week, exceeding a record already shattered last weekend, Florida governor Ron DeSantis accused Joe Biden of facilitating the virus by not reducing immigration through the southern border.

“Why don’t you do your job?” DeSantis snapped after Biden suggested DeSantis stop opposing masks. “Why don’t you get this border secure? And until you do that, I don’t want to hear a blip about Covid from you, thank you.”

The Trumpist media is quickly falling in line behind this nativist rubbish. In the last week, Fox News’s Sean Hannity has asserted the “biggest super-spreader” is immigrants streaming over the southern border rather than the lack of vaccinations.

The National Review claims “Biden’s border crisis merges with his Covid crisis” and asserts that “the federal government is successfully terrifying people about Covid while it is shrugging at the thousands of infectious illegal aliens who are coming into the country and spreading the virus.”

A columnist for the Wall Street Journal insists that “if Biden Is Serious About Covid, He’ll Protect the Border.” The Washington Examiner asserts “Biden hypocrisy endangers American lives on southern border.” Ben Shapiro’s Daily Wire warns of “Covid-Positive Illegal Immigrants Flooding Across The Border.”

Can we please stop for a moment and look at the actual data? The Delta variant is spreading fastest in interior states like Missouri and Arkansas, far away from the Mexican border.

It was first detected in India in December, and then moved directly to the United States in March and April according to the CDC.

GISAID, a nonprofit organization that tracks the genetic sequencing of viruses, has shown that each of the four variants now circulating in the United States arrived here before spreading to Mexico and Central America. International travel rather than immigration over the southern border brought the viruses to America.

Haven’t we had enough demagoguery and deflection? Haven’t Trump and his ilk done enough damage already?

The blame game must stop. Let’s be clear: The best way to contain deaths and hospitalizations from Covid is to get more Americans vaccinated. Period.

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New Poll Shows Pennsylvania Voters Want a ‘Crackdown’ on Fracking

DeSmog

New Poll Shows Pennsylvania Voters Want a ‘Crackdown’ on Fracking

As the promised benefits of fracking fail to materialize and the environmental costs mount, Pennsylvania voters of all demographics favor more regulation.
By Nick Cunningham                     August 5, 2021

Pipeline construction alongside Pennsylvania state forest roads. Credit: Public Herald. (CC BY -NC 2.0).

Pennsylvania voters have become increasingly disillusioned with the fracking industry, with weak and declining support across all demographics, according to a new poll. By wide margins, voters in the Keystone State want “a serious crackdown on fracking operations.”

The poll, conducted by Data for Progress for the Ohio River Valley Institute (ORVI), an Appalachian-focused think tank, shows that large majorities of voters in Pennsylvania — including from large swathes of Republicans — are concerned about pollution from fracking, oppose subsidies to the industry, and support a range of new regulations.

The declining support for fracking is “an extension of trends that have been underway for some time,” Eric de Place, a research fellow at ORVI, told DeSmog. “Men, women, age groups, Republicans, Democrats, Independents … there is not a demographic that doesn’t support a crackdown on fracking,” he said.

In the poll of 647 voters, 61 percent of respondents agreed with a statement that said Pennsylvania “needs to do a better job of cracking down on fracking companies that do not comply with regulations,” compared to 30 percent that said the government “does not need to intervene and impose more bureaucratic regulations on fracking companies.” Of those favoring increased enforcement, 51 percent were Independents, and even 43 percent of Republicans agreed the state should be doing more.

On a long list of additional questions, large majorities favored more restrictions, more oversight, and less state support for the natural gas industry, which for years has enjoyed political backing at multiple levels despite signs of waning approval from Pennsylvania residents.

For example, by a 74 to 14 percent margin, respondents favored greater setback distances for fracking operations from homes, schools, hospitals, and other buildings. By a 79 to 9 percent margin, respondents favored mandatory disclosure of chemicals used in drilling, and the same margin supported a comprehensive health response from the state to address the effects of living near drilling sites.

Currently, Pennsylvania exempts fracking fluids from being classified as hazardous waste, a designation that would change how and where fracking waste is handled. Yet 69 percent of those polled support classifying fracking fluids in this way, compared to 21 percent that do not.

Wayne Township Landfill in McElhattan, PA. The landfill handled gas industry drill cuttings. Credit: Public Herald. (CC BY -NC 2.0). 

 

Questions about whether fracking has been an economic boon to the state were mixed, but only 30 percent supported tax breaks for drillers, while 59 percent opposed such support. At the same time, 86 percent agreed with a statement that fracking companies “should pay the full cost for the pollution they create.” Only 8 percent were opposed.

“There’s an overwhelming, shocking number of people who want the industry much more tightly regulated than it is now. That’s something that kind of everyone agrees on,” de Place said. “Whether you want [fracking] banned or you want it to continue … almost nobody wants it to continue as it is now.”

He said two things are likely going on. The benefits promised by the industry have been disappointing, and the negative impacts have become impossible to ignore. “People have heard and seen in their lives the horror stories. Kids getting a rare bone cancer possibly because of fracking waste nearby. A lot of stories about groundwater being contaminated. There’s people concerned about climate, of course. It goes on and on,” de Place said. “As the industry has had 10 years to operate, in some cases almost with free rein, there’s just more and more reasons to be concerned and more evidence piling up that the industry is really pretty dangerous.”

When asked about the poll, David Masur, executive director of advocacy group PennEnvironment said he was not surprised, given that the lofty promises from the industry that fracking would be an economic “gamechanger” have not played out.

“I think a lot of people said, ‘well, the economy feels no different than it did before except there’s air pollution and I see pictures of things exploding on TV,’” Masur said.

The poll results add to a growing body of evidence that in a state with a heavy drilling presence, the gas industry’s support is weakening. A 2014 Quinnipiac University poll, for instance, showed that 58 percent of respondents favored fracking.

Other polls also detail declining support for the industry over time. A Franklin & Marshall College poll from 2014 found that 40 percent of voters thought the economic benefits of fracking outweighed the environmental costs, while 37 percent believed the risks were too high. That same question was asked in 2020, and opinions had flipped, with respondents stating that the risks were too high by a 49 to 38 margin.

Injection well in Allegheny County, PA. Credit: Ted Auch, FracTracker. (CC BY -NC 2.0).

 

Perceptions match some of the substantive data of the industry’s impact. Separate research from ORVI from earlier this year found the fracking boom over the past decade has been an economic bust, with counties home to disproportionately high levels of drilling having showing comparatively weak job growth and declining populations relative to other parts of Appalachia and the country as a whole.

“Our recent research shows there is very little data to support the contention that the Appalachian natural gas boom has been or can be an engine for economic prosperity. In fact, in some cases, the industry may have the opposite effect. It follows, then, that this poll confirms what other polls have been finding: that public support for fracking in Pennsylvania is eroding precipitously,” said Joanne Kilgour, executive director of ORVI.

The Marcellus Shale Coalition, a gas industry trade group, did not respond to a request for comment.

The Political Myth of Fracking

The notion that fracking is popular in Pennsylvania has been a difficult myth to debunk, and it flies in the face of conventional media narratives, including from the 2020 Presidential election in which then-President Donald Trump tried to hammer candidate Joe Biden on the issue.

“To all the people of Pennsylvania, hear this warning,” President Trump said at a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, in October. “If Biden’s elected, he will wipe out your energy industry.”

“Only by voting for me,” Trump added, “can you save your fracking in Pennsylvania.”

At the time, national media outlets consistently reported that fracking was a political liability for Biden, adopting Trump’s framing of the issue that being an ally of the industry was good politics and favoring restrictions on drilling presented political risks.

Gas rig in Butler County, PA. Credit: WCN 24/7. (CC BY – NC 2.0)

 

But that has arguably been a misguided political trope for some time. Eric de Place pointed to Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who has headed up a very public campaign opposing the industry.

In June 2020, Shapiro released a scorching grand jury report that capped off a two-year investigation into environmental crimes committed by gas drillers. The report also pointed blame at state environmental regulators for their cozy relationship with industry.

Shapiro “is about as close you can find to a one-person referendum on the politics of fracking in Pennsylvania,” de Place wrote in November 2020 shortly after the presidential election.

In 2020, Shapiro won reelection as Attorney General, garnering just barely more support across the state than Joe Biden did in the presidential election. But Shapiro did better than Biden by much larger margins in counties where fracking is concentrated. In fact, Shapiro outperformed Biden in nine out of the top ten fracking counties, according to ORVI. Given that Shapiro has cultivated a public reputation taking on the gas industry, his relatively strong performance in fracking counties undercuts the notion that regulating or opposing the industry is bad politics.

ORVI’s poll also shows that very large margins of voters favor Shapiro’s recommendations in his grand jury report. For example, by an 82 to 6 margin, respondents favor requiring safer transport of fracking waste, and a 63 to 19 percent margin favor allowing the Attorney General’s office to prosecute oil and gas companies.

Attorney General Shapiro, who is thought to be preparing a run for governor in 2022, must have come to the conclusion that it was “substantively valuable and politically valuable to call for these populist policies” against the fracking industry, betting that “there would be no blowback from the voters,” David Masur, told DeSmog.

“And it did play out that way,” Masur said.

“When fracking started, when I would go into the state capitol, I’d even have Democratic legislators going, ‘Oh my God, you can’t speak negatively about fracking. You’re going to be persona non grata in here,’” Masur told DeSmog. He said that is now changing.

But he added that increasing oversight or regulation of the industry was “an uphill battle” because of the role of money in politics. For example, Masur said that overwhelming majorities of the public favor classifying fracking fluids as hazardous waste, or favor mandatory disclosure of chemicals used in fracking, but even those extremely modest measures “can’t even get a hearing.”

“That’s a reflection of the power of money in politics, which allows a small group of special interests to have a chokehold on the decision-making,” Masur said. “Harrisburg and D.C. are so far behind the public partially because of the influence of money and access and power, [which] has them years behind where the polling shows the public is.”

Sheriff says 8 people missing as California’s Dixie Fire threatens thousands of homes

Sheriff says 8 people missing as California’s Dixie Fire threatens thousands of homes

Doyle Rice and Christine Fernando, USA TODAY      

 

At least eight people are missing and thousands anxiously waiting at evacuation centers as California’s Dixie Fire, now the nation’s largest wildfire, rips through Northern California communities and threatens to incinerate thousands of homes.

The Plumas County Sheriff’s Office is asking for help finding eight people who have been reported missing during the blaze, according to a late Friday statement. The office found 16 missing people Friday.

The Dixie Fire now spans 679 square miles and is just 21% contained. No injuries or deaths have been reported.

The fire is the third-largest wildfire in California history. But it is the largest single wildfire in the state’s history. The wildfires in 2020 and 2018 holding the top two positions were both complexes.

Fortunately, better weather conditions, including higher humidity and calmer winds, were expected to aid the fight against the blaze Saturday. Temperatures are expected to top 90 degrees, rather than the triple-digit highs earlier in the week.

Cal Fire said it expects full containment by Aug. 20, and the cause of the fire remains under investigation.

As hot, bone-dry, gusty weather hit California on Wednesday and Thursday, the fire raged through Greenville, a Gold Rush-era Sierra Nevada community of about 1,000, incinerating much of the downtown that included wooden buildings more than a century old.

Sheriff Todd Johns, who said he was a lifelong Greenville resident, said more than 100 homes were destroyed in the Greenville and Indian Falls areas.

 

“To the folks that have lost residences and businesses,” Johns said, “their life is now forever changed. And all I can tell you is I’m sorry.”

‘Catastrophically destroyed’: Dixie Fire wipes out California gold rush town of Greenville

Dan Kearns, a volunteer firefighter, said the winds came up strong Wednesday afternoon and blew the Dixie Fire into town under the type of deadly conditions that have in recent years caused widespread damage in California communities, including Paradise, Redding and Shasta County.

“I’m not going to say total (destruction) because not every structure is gone. But the town is catastrophically destroyed,” Kearns said.

No deaths or injuries were reported, but the fire threatens more than 10,000 homes.

Thousands of residents of the Northern California communities affected by the Dixie Fire have fled their homes. Some evacuated early and have spent weeks away from their homes. Others decided to stick it out and wait until the flames were at their doorstep.

Jennifer Gonzales knew it was time to go as she watched the flames creep up the building next to her.

Gonzales said she and her partner, who owned Greenville lodge, grabbed essential items and let their hotel burn behind them.

“We have the largest building in town and the best view so we could go up and see everything catching on fire,” Gonzales said. “There were embers and flames everywhere by the time we left.”

The blaze has also led to smoke and ash settling in surrounding areas, reducing air quality to unhealthy levels. By Friday morning, the air quality index remained at very unhealthy levels in the Reno-Sparks area as people with heart or lung issues, older adults, children and teens were advised to avoid outdoor physical activity and stay indoors as much as possible.

Tony Fuentes, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno, said he expect some improvement Saturday but said smoke should linger in the area over the weekend and into next week.

The cause of the blaze is under investigation, but Pacific Gas & Electric said in two separate reports to the California Public Utilities Commission that it may have been sparked when a tree fell on one of its power lines.

The questions around Dixie’s origin are only the latest in a string of disasters that has left the utility in bankruptcy and led to its criminal prosecution.

PG&E equipment was determined to be at fault for starting the 2018 Camp Fire, which destroyed most of the Butte County community of Paradise and killed 85 people.

Earlier this year, Shasta and Tehama counties agreed to a $12 million settlement with PG&E to recover costs associated with last year’s deadly Zogg Fire after the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection blamed the utility’s equipment for causing the fire.

A red sky and a road on fire: Man fleeing California wildfire saw no escape and prepared to die

Six of seven of the largest wildfires in California history have occurred during or since 2020, AccuWeather said. Compared to last year, California has experienced a 151% increase in the amount of acres burned. Fire season, which typically runs into October, is far from over.

 

Heat waves and drought tied to climate change have made wildfires harder to fight in America’s West. Scientists say climate change has made the region much warmer and drier in the past 30 years and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

Contributing: The Associated Press; David Benda and Matt Brannon, The Redding Record Searchlight; David Benda, Matt Brannon, Jessica Skropanic, Terell Wilkins and Richard Bednarski, The Reno Gazette-Journal