Earth’s hottest month featured extreme heat, drought and wildfires

Earth’s hottest month featured extreme heat, drought and wildfires

 

Reproduced from NOAA; Chart: Connor Rothschild/Axios

July was the hottest month on record worldwide, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Why it matters: When it comes to establishing new climate milestones, the Earth is on a roll, thanks in large part to the burning of fossil fuels for energy, as well as deforestation.

  • The monthly temperature record news dropped in the same week as the dire climate report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • That report makes clear that global warming can no longer be viewed as a problem simply for future generations — its effects are already here.
  • The report was the climate science equivalent of the horror movie trope: “The phone call is coming from inside the house.”

Details: The Northern Hemisphere land-surface temperature was the highest ever recorded for July, at an unprecedented 2.77°F (1.54°C) above average, NOAA found.

  • The month was the hottest month on record for Asia, and second-hottest for Europe.

During July:

  • California saw a spate of wildfires worsen, as did Oregon, Montana and other western states. One of the fires that began in July, known as the Dixie Fire, is now California’s second-largest blaze on record.
  • Brutal heat waves hit Europe and Asia, and vast stretches of Siberia went up in flames, choking population centers with smoke and haze.
  • Turkey set record highs, which helped set the stage for wildfires that broke out in August. Parts of Japan broke temperature records, and Northern Ireland broke its all-time heat record two days in a row.

Yes, but: Climate scientists don’t pay very close attention to individual calendar months, but rather to long-term, 30-year-plus trends. But in both cases, the trend lines are clear: The world is getting warmer, quickly, as greenhouse gas concentrations in the air climb.

  • It is nearly certain that 2021 will rank among the top 10 warmest years on record, most likely at number 6 or 7 on NOAA’s list. That is despite the presence of a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean that helped keep global average temperatures lower for a time.

What they’re saying: “This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe,” said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad.

Get ready to pay more for tomatoes, as California growers reel from extreme weather

Get ready to pay more for tomatoes, as California growers reel from extreme weather

 

Tomato sauce is feeling the squeeze and ketchup can’t catch up.

California grows more than 90 percent of Americans’ canned tomatoes and a third of the world’s. Ongoing drought in the state has hurt the planting and harvesting of many summer crops, but water-hungry “processing tomatoes” are caught up in a particularly treacherous swirl (a “tormado”?) of problems that experts say will spur prices to surge far more than they already have.

The drought threatens to imperil some of Americans’ favorite ingredients – pizza sauce, marinara, tomato paste, stewed tomatoes and ketchup all hang in the balance. And this comes not long after a bizarre, and completely unrelated, shortage of pizza sauce and individual ketchup packets during the height of the food-delivery-crazed pandemic.

This also comes on top of already steep increases in the price of fruits and vegetables, which have been rising since the coronavirus pandemic was declared last year.

For tomatoes, higher prices could start taking hold soon if not already, said Wells Fargo’s chief agricultural economist Michael Swanson.

“If you’re a producer or a canner and see these problems coming, why would you not raise prices now in anticipation?” he said, adding that consumers don’t see the price tag for a lot of the processed tomatoes consumed away from home. “It’s embedded in the menu board – but it is one more reason prices at Chipotle and Pizza Hut will go up.”

In a normal year, Aaron Barcellos, a farmer in Firebaugh, Calif., grows 2,200 acres of processing tomatoes. This year he’s decided to drop to 900 acres on his farm, which is on the border of Merced and Fresno counties. He’s left the remaining acres unplanted, choosing to focus all of his precious water on almonds, pistachios and olives grown on trellises – crops that command higher prices and represent already-significant sunken costs.

“We get eight inches of rain in a normal year. Last year we got 4 1/2 inches,” he said. “We got zero percent of our water allocation, which forced us to buy a lot of expensive water, and it doesn’t make sense to put it on tomatoes.”

He said many growers have made the decision to use their limited water on permanent crops – trees and things like grape vines – choosing to forgo planting annuals like tomatoes, onions and garlic, or even letting crops already planted wither in the desert-like conditions.

This year’s shortage of processing tomatoes has been a long time in the making. Farmers already had been planting fewer tomatoes. From 2015 to 2019, fewer countries were importing American tomatoes, partly because the dollar was strong, which made U.S. canned tomato products more expensive. This created an oversupply of California tomatoes, said Rob Neenan, chief executive of the California League of Food Producers.

Processors cut back their orders and farmers grew fewer acres. At the same time, partly because of a trade war, a global shortage of steel sheets used to make cans for food production caused can prices to soar. Major processing plants in Williams, Lemoore and Stockton, Calif., closed, citing higher production expenses, leaving fewer places for growers to sell. Inventory at the beginning of 2020 was low and supplies had tightened up worldwide.

And then the pandemic hit. Cue the tomato hoarding.

Frank Muller, a multigenerational tomato grower and president of M Three Ranches in Woodland, Calif., in Yolo County, euphemistically describes the market last year as “disrupted.”

Early in the pandemic, gallon cans of tomatoes sat unwanted on restaurant distributor shelves, hurting those who sold to the restaurant industry and other food-service sectors – this included caterers, event arenas and corporate cafeterias, all shuttered in the spring of 2020. Meanwhile, retail sales at grocery stores – from 5-ounce cans of paste to 28-ounce cans of diced – went nuts.

“If you were just selling to food service, they didn’t want all those tomatoes last year when restaurants closed. But if you were in retail, you were in hog heaven,” he said, going on to describe the huge uptick in pandemic pizza delivery, which used up all those gallon cans, followed by a ketchup shortage when curbside pickups and food delivery services grabbed all those little packets.

On top of the chaos of the supply problem, there’s still the threat of the coronavirus: Thousands of farmworkers throughout California have gotten sick on the job. Outbreaks still occur, despite robust vaccination pushes.

Muller said there were very few infections among his farmworkers – his tomatoes are mechanically picked. Now he’s also worried about worker shortages.

“We made it through last year, but here we are, and the workforce is still not returning because of enhanced unemployment benefits, and that has affected seasonal processing plants,” Muller said.

All these problems are leading to fewer tomatoes. Processors reined in their estimate of how many tons of tomatoes they would contract for this year, dropping it by more than a million tons, and now even that looks overly hopeful. Muller said this is the first year processors didn’t get all the tomato tonnage they wanted from farmers. “This year will be some of lowest inventory levels that we’ve ever seen,” he said.

Prices were already on the rise. In April, processing tomatoes worldwide were 7% more expensive than during three previous seasons, according to the World Processing Tomato Council. And before this summer’s heat wave struck, the California Tomato Growers Association had negotiated a price on behalf of farmers with the tomato processors that is 5.6% higher than last growing season, because, as Muller says, farmers’ expenses are rising: “Supplies, fuel, drip tape, anything with steel, you name it, it’s going up.”

“Tomato processors have very expensive facilities that can only do one thing. If they don’t want to be out of business, they will have to bid up tomatoes rather than leave facilities idle,” said Swanson, the agricultural economist.

Those price increases are expected to be passed along to the big companies that contract with processors, agricultural experts say. Companies that have deep ties to tomatoes have yet to signal price increases. Kraft Heinz declined to comment about pricing for this story, as did Campbell Soup, which is a grower as well as a processor and uses about 2 billion pounds of tomatoes annually for its iconic soup, V8 beverages and Prego and Pace sauces.

James Sherwood of the Morning Star Company, one of the largest tomato processors, said it’s hard to predict how high prices could go. He said higher prices are not just due to the drought but also increasing costs for fertilizer, labor and natural gas. And next year looks even grimmer.

“We have lower inventories right now and a water crisis,” Sherwood said, “and for next year, there are farmers making decisions about crops based on their allocation of water. The reservoirs are tremendously, historically low right now and that’s concerning.”

But a lot of these business decisions were made before the recent blistering, record heat wave. Fresno County, the top producer of tomatoes, saw a long stretch of triple-digit temperatures. Yolo, Kings, Merced and San Joaquin are the next largest in terms of tomato production, and all five are in the “exceptional drought” category, the highest level on the U.S. drought map. Severe drought conditions have enveloped nearly all of California’s landmass, with the state’s rain and snowfall well below average and its network of reservoirs holding much less water than usual.

Muller said in a typical year he has allocated three or four feet of water for every acre of farmland that needs irrigation. This year he got a smidgen of one foot, just 3.6 inches of water per acre. Much less rain than usual, as well as much less irrigation water than usual, means growers must turn to groundwater, which is more expensive, to save their crops.

“In Yolo County, we have relatively stable groundwater and replenishment of the aquifer. It’s like having money in the bank, so we’re pumping water out of the ground like a withdrawal,” he said. “We’re just keeping our fingers crossed that the water table will maintain itself. That’s caused a whole new level of concern.”

Greg Pruett, chief executive of Ingomar Packing Company in Los Banos, a partnership of four growers, says the situation is going to be significantly worse next year, because while there were reasonable reservoir levels going into this growing season, that will be entirely depleted by growers turning to groundwater.

On Friday, California’s State Water Resources Control Board released an order that would cut farmers off from turning to rivers and streams in the Sacramento and San Joaquin river watersheds, removing yet another source of water in an extreme drought year.

“Growers will have the worst water situation ever by the end of this growing season,” Pruett said. “The cost increases this year – in water, cans, all the other ingredients, labor, transportation – all those things add up to major cost inflation. And that pales in comparison to what’s going to happen next year.”

Bottom line, he says: If the drought continues and the water table dips significantly, many growers may not plant tomatoes next year.

First water cuts in US West supply to hammer Arizona farmers

First water cuts in US West supply to hammer Arizona farmers

CASA GRANDE, Ariz. (AP) — A harvester rumbles through the fields in the early morning light, mowing down rows of corn and chopping up ears, husks and stalks into mulch for feed at a local dairy.

The cows won’t get their salad next year, at least not from this farm. There won’t be enough water to plant the corn crop.

Climate change, drought and high demand are expected to force the first-ever mandatory cuts to a water supply that 40 million people across the American West depend on — the Colorado River. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s projection next week will spare cities and tribes but hit Arizona farmers hard.

They knew this was coming. They have left fields unplanted, laser leveled the land, lined canals, installed drip irrigation, experimented with drought-resistant crops and found other ways to use water more efficiently.

Still, the cutbacks in Colorado River supply next year will be a blow for agriculture in Pinal County, Arizona’s top producer of cotton, barley and livestock. Dairies largely rely on local farms for feed and will have to search farther out for supply, and the local economy will take a hit.

The cuts are coming earlier than expected as a drought has intensified and reservoirs dipped to historic lows across the West. Scientists blame climate change for the warmer, more arid conditions over the past 30 years.

 

Standing next to a dry field, his boots kicking up dust, farmer Will Thelander said “more and more of the farm is going to look like this next year because we won’t have the water to keep things growing everywhere we want.”

His father, Dan, tried to steer his kids away from farming, not because water would be scarce but because development was expected to swallow farms between Phoenix and Tucson where their family grows alfalfa, corn for cows, and cotton, some destined for overseas markets.

“It was fun just keeping the family business going, working with my dad,” said Thelander, a 34-year-old, fourth-generation farmer whose office is a dusty pickup truck.

Thelander manages almost half of the 6,000 acres his family farms under Tempe Farming Co., much of it devoted to corn for cows. He’s not planning on growing that crop next year, opting for others that will be more profitable on less land.

He didn’t plant anything on 400 acres this year to cut down on water use. Farmers’ Colorado River water comes by way of Lake Mead, which sits on the Arizona-Nevada border and serves as a barometer for water deliveries to Arizona, Nevada, California and Mexico, in the river’s lower basin.

The nation’s largest reservoir already has hit the level that triggers mandatory shortages — 1,075 feet (328 meters) above sea level. The Bureau of Reclamation will issue the official projection for 2022 water deliveries Monday, giving users time to plan for what’s to come.

Arizona is expected to lose 512,000 acre-feet of water, about one-fifth of the state’s Colorado River supply but less than 8% of its total water. Nevada will lose 21,000 acre-feet, and Mexico will lose 80,000 acre-feet. An acre-foot is enough water to supply one to two households a year.

The cuts will be most deeply felt in Arizona, which entered into an agreement in 1968 for junior rights to Colorado River water in exchange for U.S. funding to build a 336-mile (540-kilometer) canal to send the water through the desert to major cities.

Agriculture won’t end in Pinal County, but the cuts to farmers will force more of them to rely on groundwater that’s already overpumped.

Hardly anyone expects a more than 20-year megadrought to improve. Models show the Colorado River will shrink even more in coming years because of climate change, leading to additional cuts that could ultimately affect home taps.

The river carries melted snow from the Rocky Mountains and other tributaries through seven Western states, providing drinking water, nourishment for crops and habitat for plants and animals. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the river’s two largest reservoirs, are popular for recreation and their dams produce hydropower for the region.

“It’s such a significant river,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. “It used to be called the Nile of the West, which is almost impossible to believe these days.”

Arizona has positioned itself to weather the cuts by storing water underground and in Lake Mead and through conservation. It’s also trying to secure other water sources. Among the options are importing groundwater to metropolitan Phoenix and Tucson from other parts of the state, leasing more water from tribes, creating a more robust supply of recycled water and desalinating water from the Sea of Cortez in Mexico.

“They all work together,” said Ted Cooke, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, which manages the canal system that carries river water. “Some of them are more near term, some of them are farther away, some of them are more costly than others, but all of those things need to be done.”

Under a drought contingency plan that Western states signed in 2019, some of the water that farmers will lose will be replaced by other sources next year. Arizona, the Central Arizona Project, environmental groups and others have kicked in millions of dollars to soften the blow to farmers and improve groundwater infrastructure.

The Maricopa-Stanfield Irrigation and Drainage District, where Thelander farms, plans to have nine wells complete by year’s end.

District President Bryan Hartman said it won’t pump anywhere near what it used to and will be looking for other sources, likely turning to cities and tribes with higher priority water rights.

The next few months will be critical to planning for a future with less water.

“Growers will be asking, ‘How much water are we going to get, how many acre-feet, what are the flows going to be,’ and that will determine the cropping pattern,” said Hartman, himself a farmer.

Paul “Paco” Ollerton, 66, who largely grows feed for animals, will plant 25% to 35% less land next year.

He thought he was done with farming back in 2005 when he sold his land, partly because he knew water would be hard to get.

“I just finally woke up one day and thought, the secretary of the Interior one day is going to say, ‘It’s more important for you to flush your toilet and have water to brush your teeth with than farm,’” Ollerton said.

Too young to retire, he leased back the land and has farmed across Pinal County.

One of his farms along a stretch of interstate leading to San Diego uses drip irrigation that makes water use more efficient and crops more productive, he said. Making the rounds in his cotton fields, he flushes the system’s valves with Aggie, a yellow lab who rides in the backseat of his pickup truck.

His two children talk about being farmers, but he doesn’t promote the long hours or uncertainty. Three generations of farming likely ends with him.

For Thelander, he’s considered getting out of farming and starting a trucking business. But he also sees hope in guayule, a drought-resistant shrub that could be used in the production of rubber. His family’s farm is participating in research for a tire manufacturer to see if it can be used on a large scale.

“This is my Hail Mary, trying to save farming for myself,” Thelander said.

96,000 Fish Die in Chlorine Leak at Norwegian Fish Farm

96,000 Fish Die in Chlorine Leak at Norwegian Fish Farm

Olivia Rosane                        August 12, 2021

​A fish farm in Norway.
A fish farm in Norway. franckreporter / Getty Images

 

Nearly 100,000 fish have died after one of the world’s largest salmon farming companies released 4,000 gallons of chlorine into a Norwegian fjord on Tuesday.

Grieg Seafood, which is headquartered in Norway, said that the leak occurred in one of their fish slaughterhouses in the town of Alta in the Norwegian Arctic, as The Independent reported.

“This is very sad,” harvesting plant manager Stine Torheim said in a statement. “Our focus is now first and foremost on cleaning up. We will get all facts about this incident on the table, to ensure that it will not happen again.”

The company said that the leak did not harm any employees or other people. Further, police spokesperson Stein Hugo Jorergensen told Norwegian broadcaster NRK that no toxic chlorine gas had been released on land, according to The Independent. However, the leak did kill 96,000 fish in holding pens at the time.

In addition to contaminating the fjord, the chlorine also flowed into the Atlantic Ocean, Norwegian police said on Twitter, as The Independent reported.

“The emergency services are working on site to get an overview of the incident,” the police said.

The company said it did not yet know how the leak might impact the environment of the fjord, but had contracted an assessment from Akvaplan Niva. In general, chlorine tends to dilute and break down rapidly once it enters water.

“According to what we know today, the leak had a short-term, acute impact on organisms that were in the water around the harvesting plant when the incident occurred,” the company said. “The environmental assessment, which is expected to take a few days, will provide a full answer.”

The company uses chlorine in its day-to-day operations to disinfect the water used for processing at the plant. It said that it would cooperate with authorities as they investigate the cause of the leak. In the meantime, it is conducting a cleanup of the pens, removing dead fish. It said it expected the process to take a few days.

Grieg Seafood provides more than 25,000 tons of salmon to North America and Asia every year, according to CBS News. Approximately 430 tons were lost in the leak, the company said, which Norwegian media company Intrafish estimated to be worth around $3.4 million, CBS News reported. Grieg Seafood said that, while the financial consequences of the incident were still unclear, the fish had been insured.

China cities declare ‘red alerts’ as flood death toll hits 21

Reuters

China cities declare ‘red alerts’ as flood death toll hits 21

China regularly experiences flooding during its wet summer months, but authorities have warned that extreme weather is now becoming more frequent as a result of climate change.

Source: Reuters        August 13, 2021

NBC News Video:    blob:https://www.nbcnews.com/45cb5e0c-882a-401e-a6e1-06a99cb7529e

 

The deaths were recorded in the township of Liulin, part of the city of Suizhou in the north of the province. More than 2,700 houses and shops suffered flood damage and power, transportation and communications were also disrupted, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

Rescue crews have been dispatched to the worst affected areas, including the cities of Suizhou, Xiangyang and Xiaogan, China’s Ministry of Emergency Management said. The city of Yicheng also saw a record 400 millimeters of rain on Thursday.

According to the official China News Service, as many as 774 reservoirs in Hubei had exceeded their flood warning levels by Thursday evening.

Extreme weather in the province has caused widespread power cuts and has damaged more than 3,600 houses and 8,110 hectares of crops. Total losses were estimated at 108 million yuan ($16.67 million), the official China Daily said on Friday, citing the province’s emergency management bureau.

China regularly experiences flooding during its wet summer months, but authorities have warned that extreme weather is now becoming more frequent as a result of climate change.

Watch: Stranded flood victims in Zhengzhou, China, rescued by rafts and heavy machinery

July 22, 2021

Around 80,000 were evacuated in the southwestern province of Sichuan last weekend and record rainfall in Henan last month caused floods that killed more than 300 people.

 

The China Meteorological Administration warned that heavy rainstorms were likely to continue until next week, with regions along the Yangtze river vulnerable to flooding.

State weather forecasters also issued a geological disaster warning late on Thursday, saying areas at risk include the central provinces of Hubei, Hunan, Henan and Anhui, Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou in the southwest as well as Zhejiang on the eastern coast.

Covid may have begun with Chinese scientist collecting bat samples, says WHO investigator

Covid may have begun with Chinese scientist collecting bat samples, says WHO investigator

Field workers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology hunt for bats  - Chinese Academy of Sciences
Field workers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology hunt for bats – Chinese Academy of Sciences

 

A Chinese scientist may have started the pandemic after being infected with coronavirus while collecting bat samples, the head of the World Health Organization’s investigation has said.

In a documentary released this week by the Danish television channel TV2, Dr Peter Embarek said it was a “likely hypothesis” that a lab employee could have picked up the virus while working in the field.

Scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology were known to be working on bat coronavirus at labs in the city, but China has been uncooperative in providing details of their research.

Dr Embarek said WHO investigators were forced to conclude that a lab leak was “extremely unlikely” in their official report to avoid further arguments with the Chinese.

He said the team had come to an “impasse” with China, which would only allow a lab leak scenario to be included in the report if there were no recommendations to look further.

“My counterpart agreed we could mention (the lab leak scenario) in the report under the condition that we wouldn’t recommend specific studies of that hypothesis. We would just leave it there.”

Asked whether the Chinese would have agreed to the report without the scenario being labelled “extremely unlikely”, Dr Embarek said: “That would have probably demanded further discussion and arguments for and against I didn’t think it was worth it.”

However, Dr Embarek said it was possible that a lab employee may have been infected in the field.

“We consider that hypothesis a likely one,” he added.

Chinese pressure

Pressure is growing on China to release documentation of work at laboratories in Wuhan and allow a thorough investigation.

A report into the lab leak scenario, which was commissioned by Joe Biden, is expected to report at the end of August, and last month the WHO called for an in-depth audit, a request that the Chinese had rejected.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, co-chairman of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, said the international community urgently needed to identify how the virus outbreak erupted.

“There’s no question now that this process needs to be undertaken by the WHO. They need to come clean, as China needs to come clean, about the origins of the virus,” he said.

‘Arrogant refusal to accept the origins of the virus’

Sir Iain said millions of people had lost their lives on account of the “terrible and arrogant refusal to accept that the origins of the virus” may be linked to the Wuhan lab.

Dr Embarek, pictured below, also told the documentary team that he was concerned about a second lab, the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which had moved premises to just a third of a mile from the Wuhan wet market where the outbreak first emerged.

Peter Ben Embarek - Hector Retamal/AFP
Peter Ben Embarek – Hector Retamal/AFP

 

“There are other labs in Wuhan that are interesting, such as CDC, which also worked with bats,” he said.

“What is more concerning to me is the other lab that is next to the market, because they were also handling coronaviruses, without potentially having the same level of expertise or safety …

“When we were being shown around I thought it all looked new. I asked how old the lab was and they said, ‘We moved on 2 December’.

“That’s when it all started. We know that when you move a lab it disturbs all the procedures. You have to move the virus collection and the samples. That’s why that period of time and that lab are interesting.”

Lab leak theory persists

Experts in Britain said it was “plausible” that a lab employee could have brought the virus back to Wuhan, which would also fit with genetic studies showing it had jumped from an animal.

Dr Jonathan Stoye, group leader of the Retrovirus-Host Interactions Laboratory at The Francis Crick Institute, said: “It sounds entirely plausible to me

“My feeling when I read the original WHO report was there was no grounds for calling it extremely unlikely so it was always slightly strange.

“I have been saying for a while that this isn’t solved, the lab link is still there and we need to know more. The question is how we go about getting more.

“To my mind, there is no evidence of manipulation of the virus, but we know these investigators have been collecting bat samples, so they could have carried something back.”

Genetic studies support both a lab leak scenario and a wild infection

Ravi Gupta, professor of microbiology at the University of Cambridge, said that current genetic studies supported both a lab leak scenario and a wild infection

“The genetics are consistent with the lab leak/field work infection scenario described by the WHO mission lead, and also consistent with infection from the wild in general by a non-lab worker,” he said.

However, other researchers said the comments did little to move the investigation forward.

“There are many possible ways the virus was transmitted to humans,” said Prof David Robertson, head of viral genomics and bioinformatics at the University of Glasgow,

“Peter was just referring to something that was possible. As we’ve no evidence for this, or any link to a lab-leak, it remains just speculation.”

Inconvenient truth: Droughts shrink hydropower, pose risk to global push to clean energy

Inconvenient truth: Droughts shrink hydropower, pose risk to global push to clean energy

Hoover Dam reservoir sinks to record low, in sign of extreme Western U.S. drought.
SACRAMENTO, Calif./BRASILIA/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Severe droughts are drying up rivers and reservoirs vital for the production of zero-emissions hydropower in several countries around the globe, in some cases leading governments to rely more heavily on fossil fuels.

The emerging problems with hydropower production in places like the United States, China and Brazil represent what scientists and energy experts say is going to be a long-term issue for the industry as climate change https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/once-in-50-year-heat-waves-now-happening-every-decade-un-climate-report-2021-08-09 triggers more erratic weather and makes water access less reliable.

They also could pose a threat to international ambitions to fight global warming by hindering one of the leading forms of existing clean power. Hydropower is the world’s top source of clean energy and makes up close to 16% of world electricity generation, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

This year, climate-driven droughts have triggered the biggest disruptions in hydropower generation in decades in places like the western United States and Brazil. China is still recovering from the effects of last year’s severe drought on hydro production in Yunnan province in the southwestern part of the country.

Elsewhere, too much water is the problem.

Last year in Malawi, for example, flooding and debris from megastorms forced two power stations to go offline, reducing hydropower capacity from 320 megawatts (MW) to 50 MW, according to the IEA.

Those effects have forced power grid operators to rely more heavily on thermal power plants, often fired by natural gas or coal, and to ask businesses to curtail electricity use to prevent outages, according to Reuters interviews with grid operators and regulators.

“When we’re talking about hydropower we’re really talking about making sure we have enough water to get electricity,” said Kristen Averyt, a research professor focusing on climate resilience at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas. “What does that hydro generation get replaced with?”

SHUTDOWN AT LAKE OROVILLE

In California, the State Water Project was forced to shut down a 750-MW hydroelectric power plant at Lake Oroville this month for the first time since it was built in 1967 because of low water levels. In good years, the plant can power half a million homes.

Power facilities at Lake Shasta, the largest reservoir in the federal government’s Central Valley Project in California, were also generating about 30% less power than usual this summer, said Cary Fox, a team leader for the Bureau of Reclamation’s operations in the state.

The lake usually provides about 710 MW during the summer, but in July was producing only 500 MW, Fox said.

At the huge 2,000 MW Hoover Dam on the Colorado River at the border of Nevada and Arizona, production was also down by about 25% last month, the agency said.

One megawatt can power up to 1,000 U.S. homes.

Tight power supplies in California, driven in part by low hydropower production, led Governor Gavin Newsom to issue an order on July 30 allowing industrial power consumers to run on diesel generators and engines that emit more greenhouse gases. [

The order also allowed ships at port to use diesel generators instead of plugging into the grid, and lifted restrictions on the amount of fuel natural gas plants can use to generate power.

Environmentalists have criticized the move, saying it will worsen air quality in California and undermine the state’s efforts to fight climate change.

Tim Welch, director of hydropower research at the U.S. Department of Energy, said the department is researching ways that dams can more efficiently store water during rainy periods so it can be reserved for use during droughts.

Hydropower plants in the United States are capable of producing about 80 gigawatts (GW) of energy, about 7% of total energy production, Welch said.

DROUGHT IN BRAZIL

In Brazil, where hydroelectric power is the top source of electricity at 61%, drought recently cut water flows into hydro dams to a 91-year low, the country’s mines and energy minister said.

To offset the drop in hydropower, the country is seeking to activate thermoelectric plants, mainly powered by natural gas, threatening to drive up greenhouse gas emissions. In July, sector regulator Aneel raised the most expensive electricity rate by 52%, due to the drought crisis.

Severe weather events like the current drought will become increasingly frequent with climate change, and Brazilians will need to change their attitudes about water, said José Marengo, a climatologist at the government’s disaster monitoring center.

“People always thought that water is unlimited, but it really isn’t,” Marengo said.

Brazil Mines and Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque said in an online briefing with reporters that a boom in the construction of power lines to reroute electricity to where it is needed and diversification away from hydro to solar and wind will help the country deal with such events in the future, and prevent the need for water rationing.

Even so, Brazil will remain reliant on hydropower for years. By 2030, the energy ministry predicts 49% of electricity will come from hydro. The country is also maintaining plans to build more hydro plants, exploring potential cross-border dam projects with Bolivia, Guyana and Argentina, as well as building 2 GW worth of small dams domestically.

DAMS – SAVE THE PLANET OR HARM IT?

Last year’s drought in China’s Yunnan province slashed hydro power generation by nearly 30% during the first five months of 2020, according to official data. Output this year remains curtailed by around 10%.

Yunnan usually accounts for roughly a quarter of China’s total hydro generation, and the province is home to several aluminum smelting businesses that require vast quantities of power to operate. The province restricted metal producers’ power use earlier this year, forcing some smelting capacity to be temporarily shut.

More disruptions are expected.

A recent study by researchers in Nanjing looked at the potential impact of climate change and rising temperatures on hydropower generation in Yunnan. Their models showed decreases in rain and snowfall during the October-April drought season and increases in the summer rainy season.

To even out the variability, the researchers proposed more storage capacity – more dams and reservoirs.

But the diversions could worsen droughts elsewhere, according to experts. China’s giant reservoirs https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mekong-river-idUSKCN21V0U7 on the upper reaches of the Mekong River in Yunnan have already been blamed https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mekong-river-idUSKBN2AC0K0 for reducing downstream flows – affecting water access in Thailand, Cambodia https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mekong-river-cambodia-idUSKBN2B002T and Myanmar.

(Reporting by Sharon Bernstein in Sacramento, California, Jake Spring in Brasilia, David Stanway in Shanghai; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Record Salmon in One Place. Barely Any in Another. Alarm All Around.

Record Salmon in One Place. Barely Any in Another. Alarm All Around.

An aerial view of the Yukon River in Alaska, Aug. 3, 2021. (Ash Adams/The New York Times)
An aerial view of the Yukon River in Alaska, Aug. 3, 2021. (Ash Adams/The New York Times)

 

This summer, fishers in the world’s largest wild salmon habitat pulled a record-breaking 65 million sockeye salmon from Alaska’s Bristol Bay, beating the 2018 record by more than 3 million fish.

But on the Yukon River, about 500 miles to the north, salmon were alarmingly absent. This summer’s chum run was the lowest on record, with only 153,000 fish counted in the river at the Pilot Station sonar — a stark contrast to the 1.7 million chum running in year’s past. The king salmon runs were also critically low this summer — the third lowest on record. The Yukon’s fall run is also shaping up to be sparse.

The disparity between the fisheries is concerning — a possible bellwether for the chaotic consequences of climate change; competition between wild and hatchery fish; and commercial fishing bycatch.

“This is something we’ve never seen before,” said Sabrina Garcia, a research biologist with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. “I think that we’re starting to see changes due to climate change, and I think that we’re going to continue to see more changes, but we need more years of data.”

The low runs have had ripple effects for communities along the Yukon River and its tributaries — the Andreafski, Innoko, Anvik, Porcupine, Tanana and Koyukuk rivers — resulting in a devastating blow to the people relying on salmon as a food staple, as feed for sled dogs and as an integral and enriching cultural tradition spanning millenniums.

“We have over 2,000 miles of river, and our numbers are so low,” said Serena Fitka, the executive director of the Yukon River Drainage Fisheries Association. “Where are all our fish? That’s the question hanging over everyone’s head.”

Because the critically low runs of chinook and chum didn’t meet escapement goals, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game prohibited subsistence, commercial and sports fishing on all of the Yukon, leaving nearly 50 communities with basically no salmon.

“When we have a disaster of this magnitude, where people are worried about their food security, they’re worried about their spiritual security, they’re worried about the future generations’ ability to continue our way of life and culture — our leadership is very anxious,” said Natasha Singh, who is general counsel for the Tanana Chiefs Conference, a tribal organization representing 42 villages in an interior Alaska region nearly the size of Texas. “Our people are very anxious. They want to remain Athabascan-Dene. They want to remain Native, and that’s at risk.”

It’s not the first time salmon runs on the Yukon River and its tributaries have plummeted, but this summer’s record low numbers feel particularly distressing. A large stretch of the Yukon River carries only two of the five species of salmon found in Alaska: chinook and chum.

“When one species crashes, we’re kind of shocked, but we’re OK because we know we can eat from the other stock,” said Ben Stevens, the tribal resource commission manager for Tanana Chiefs Conference. “But, this year is unprecedented in that we don’t have either stock there. They’re both in the tank.”

Yukon River chinook salmon have been in decline for decades, shrinking in size and in quantity as the years pass. The region is also seeing mass die-offs of salmon. In 2019, thousands of chum carcasses washed up on the banks of the Yukon River and its tributaries, which scientists blamed on heat stress from water temperatures nearing 70 degrees, about 10-15 degrees higher than typical for the area.

While warming waters can create an inhospitable habitat for salmon, some research indicates that the heat benefited the sockeye in Bristol Bay, boosting the food supply for young salmon.

Some fish processors are donating excess fish from Bristol Bay to communities along the Yukon. SeaShare and other Alaska fish processors are coordinating donations, and more salmon is expected to be shipped in the next few weeks.

“It’s so heartwarming to have our fellow Alaskans reach out and provide donations,” Stevens said. “I’m just kind of sad that we’ve allowed the situation to get this bad.”

Stevens is a Koyukon Athabascan from Stevens Village, a small community northwest of Fairbanks, Alaska, where the Trans-Alaska Pipeline crosses over the Yukon River. He toured the region last month to hear how communities are coping with the low runs. He said people are scared about a winter with no food, and for the consequences that come with being disconnected from the land and animals. With the loss of fish also comes “the incredible loss of culture,” Stevens said.

Meat harvested from the land is a core food for people living off Alaska’s road system, whose communities are accessible only by boat or plane. Steep shipping costs and long travel times make fresh food at village stores prohibitively expensive and limited; the custom of harvesting food together with friends and family goes back thousands of years.

No salmon also means no fish camp — an annual summer practice where families gather along the rivers to catch, cut and preserve salmon for the winter, and where important life lessons and values are passed down to the next generation.

“We go out and we pass on our tradition over thousands of years from the young to the old,” said PJ Simon, a chief and chairman of the Tanana Chiefs Conference. “That’s our soul. That’s our identity. And that’s where we get our courage, our craftsmanship, for everything that has led up to where we are today.”

Model and activist Quannah Chasinghorse, 19, travels to her family’s fish camp every summer. Chasinghorse is Han Gwich’in and Oglala Lakota, and is from the Eagle, Alaska.

“Every time I go out to fish camp there’s something new I notice that’s different — due to climate change, due to so many different things — and it breaks my heart because I want to be able to bring my children, and I want them to experience how beautiful these lands are,” Chasinghorse said. “I want to see younger generations fishing and laughing and having fun and knowing what it’s like to work hard out on the land.”

The future of Yukon salmon runs remains uncertain. But there’s still time for fishers in the region to adapt to the effects of climate change and to different management approaches, said Singh, the attorney. If salmon are allowed to rebound, then “our children will be fishing people,” she said.

“We shouldn’t conclude that climate change is going to change our fisheries to the point where we have to give up our identity,” Singh said.

Stevens said state and federal natural resource managers “need more Indigenous science” and more “traditional resource management principles in play right now.”

“I think we need folks to know that the last great salmon run on this globe, the last wild one, is about ready to end,” Stevens said. “But, we can stop it.”

© 2021 The New York Times Company

Days of hot weather grip Southern Europe, North Africa

Associated Press

Days of hot weather grip Southern Europe, North Africa

 

ROME (AP) — Stifling heat kept its grip on much of Southern Europe on Thursday, driving people indoors at midday, spoiling crops, triggering drinking water restrictions, turning public libraries into cooling “climate shelters” and complicating the already difficult challenge firefighters faced battling wildfires.

In many places, forecasters said worse was expected to come.

In Italy, 15 cities received warnings from the health ministry about high temperatures and humidity with peaks predicted for Friday. The cities included Rome, Florence and Palermo, but also Bolzano, which is usually a refreshing hot-weather escape in the Alps,

The local National Health Service offices in Rome and Bologna telephoned older residents who live alone to see if they needed groceries or medicines delivered so they wouldn’t venture out in the searing heat.

The Italian air force, which oversees the national weather service, said the interior parts of the islands of Sardinia and Sicily could expect to see temperatures upwards of 40 degrees Celsius (104 F) by Friday. By early afternoon on Thursday in Rome, the city famous for its ornamental as well as strategically placed sidewalk drinking fountains sizzled in 38 C (100 F) heat.

“I drink a lot of water, more water, more water and more water,” said Hank Heerat, a tourist from the Netherlands cycling down the broad boulevard flanking the Roman Forum.

At the ancient Colosseum, Civil Protection volunteers distributed hundreds of bottles of water to visitors.

In Serbia, the spell of hot, dry weather prompted four municipalities to declare an emergency after Rzav River levels plummeted, endangering water supplies. Authorities imposed drinking water restrictions affecting some 250,000 people, while the army brought in water tanks for public use.

“We have a period of severe drought, we cannot take any more water from the river,” Zoran Barac, the head of a local water supply utility, told state broadcaster RTS.

In Spain, the national weather service warned temperatures could hit 44 C (111 F) in some areas in coming days. Parts of the northeastern Catalonia region were forecast to reach 42 C (107.6 F) on Thursday.

Authorities in Barcelona, the Catalan capital, designated 162 museums, libraries, schools and other public places around the city as “climate shelters.” The sites offered an escape from the heat, cool drinking water and staff trained in dealing with heatstroke.

The surge in temperatures, due to a mass of hot, dry air from Africa, was expected to ease starting on Monday on the Iberian peninsula.

While Southern Europe is known for sunny, hot summers, climate scientists say there’s little doubt climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas is driving extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and wildfires, which they say are likely to happen more frequently as Earth warms.

A German tourist in Rome concurred.

Because of climate change, “temperatures are very high. So I think it’s a better option is to reduce the carbon dioxide from the cars and travel more with the metro,” said Philippe Kutaski near the Colosseum in Rome.

As in past years, Croatia’s Adriatic Sea resorts were hosting hundreds of thousands of tourists. But those stepping out of the sea sweltered as temperatures reached 39 C (102 F) on the coast on Wednesday.

Crops and farm animals were suffering from days of extremely high temperature, too.

The Italian agriculture lobby Coldiretti said Thursday that 20% of the tomato crop in Italy’s south was lost due to torrid heat and humidity. Italy exports nearly 2 billion euros ($2.4 billion) worth of tomatoes and tomato products like canned or bottled sauce throughout the world.

Dairy farmers in southern Italy estimated that the heat wave meant cows were eating less, producing 20% less milk and drinking double the usual amount of water.

While much attention has focused on southern Europe’s heat crisis, it was even hotter on the North African shore of the Mediterranean Sea. Temperatures hit 50 C (122 F) in Tunisia, a record high for the country. The last previous high was 48.2 C (nearly 119 F) in 1968.

In Algeria, most of the regions of the north of the country have been placed on alert for heat waves. Fires ravaging mountain forests and villages in Algeria’s Berber region have killed at least 65 people, including 28 soldiers.

Blazes have devoured forest and brush areas in Greece and in southern Italy for days.

In Italy, temperatures in the mid-40s C (over 110 F) in inland parts of Sardinia, Calabria and Sicily made for ripe fire conditions. But long spells of drought also were blamed. By the start of summer in Italy, vegetation had already withered from lack of rain and “essentially became fuel” for wildfires, Italian Civil Protection official Luigi D’Angelo told Italian state TV.

Michele Calamaio in Rome, Barry Hatton in Lisbon, Jovana Gec in Belgrade, Sylvie Corbet in Paris, contributed reporting.

An estimated 300 trillion invasive mussels blanket Lake Michigan. Eradication may be impossible, but small-scale removal efforts could be the answer

An estimated 300 trillion invasive mussels blanket Lake Michigan. Eradication may be impossible, but small-scale removal efforts could be the answer

 

SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NATIONAL LAKESHORE — The divers leaned back from the edge of the boat and splashed into water, bobbing up for a moment before dropping down to a world just a few miles off the northern Michigan coast — and worlds away from the one above the surface.

Today in Lake Michigan, quagga mussels, Eastern European invaders generally smaller than a stamp, reign over an upended underwater ecosystem. The mussels arrived in the Great Lakes more than three decades ago, eating, excreting and spreading zealously ever since, attaching themselves to everything from water intakes to shipwrecks, and all the while filtering life out of the food chain and a $7 billion fishing industry.

But solutions in open water, at least on a small scale, are starting to seem possible to soften the bivalves’ brunt.

Experiments are playing out in Lake Michigan with hopes of restoring fish spawning habitat. Manually removing mussels, with another invasive species offering an assist, has kept rocks clear. Other treatments from copper compounds to genetic biocontrol are in the mix as a collaborative dedicated to mussel control plans for the future.

The Lake Michigan survey on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 180-foot Lake Guardian research vessel, generally conducted every five years, just wrapped up. The bottom-dwelling census is essential to understanding what mussels have done to the lake in the last 30 years, and what they may do next.

Large-scale eradication is still a daunting idea with how many invasive mussels blanket Lake Michigan. By comparison, during peak migration, 30 million birds might fly over Illinois in a night. About 3 trillion trees cover the entire earth. The human body? Somewhere in the tens of trillions of cells.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists estimate about 300 trillion mussels in the lake from the 2015 count — and the mollusks are growing at deeper sites, and growing larger.

More than a decade ago, between regular dives off the Wisconsin shore, Harvey Bootsma, a professor at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, told the Chicago Tribune the lake was “changing faster than we can study it.”

There are now more than 185 nonnative species in the Great Lakes region; some sneaked in through ships and human-made connections, while others, such as coho and king salmon, were introduced by people. Some acclimated with negligible — or even beneficial — consequences. The invasive mussels are among the most notorious of the unexpected visitors.

On top of the ecological damage caused to native mussels, fish and even shorebirds, they’ve cost billions — from clogging water intakes and power infrastructure, to damaging boats and docks.

Zebra mussels came first; the Caspian Sea travelers discharged in the 1980s, likely via ship-stabilizing ballast water. Quagga mussels, filter feeders armed with a more impressive propagation arsenal, arrived soon after.

Unlike zebra mussels, which generally attach to hard surfaces and stick to shallower water, quaggas tolerate colder temperatures, softer sediment and outcompete zebras with less food available, meaning they now dominate Lake Michigan — and most of the Great Lakes. Only Lake Superior has been largely spared due to the lake’s chillier conditions and lack of calcium, which mussels need to strengthen their shells.

Years later, Bootsma is still studying how the mussels have transformed Lake Michigan, suiting up and diving down to an underwater laboratory.

“What we’ve learned in the Great Lakes is that prevention is a lot cheaper than trying to implement cures,” Bootsma said. “So it’s really important for us now to understand how we can prevent such dramatic changes happening in the future.”

As zebra and quagga mussels engulfed Lake Michigan, their colonies transforming rocks into shelled clumps and the lake bed into serrated carpet, they gobbled up phytoplankton at the base of the food web.

In the last 30 years, the bottom-dwelling czars have changed the look and chemistry of the lake: the water’s clearer, algae heartier, plankton scarcer. The nutrients — in the mussels’ control.

But, despite the improbability, if not impossibility, of large-scale mussel removal in Lake Michigan, Bootsma said it’s valid to ask: “Could we do it at scales large enough that there could be some positive impacts?”

Today, it’s still a challenge to get people to understand the widespread implications of the mussels, Bootsma said, because “most people don’t see what’s under the surface.”

Zebra mussels on a Lake Michigan Beach

If you went to Yellowstone National Park and discovered the bison were gone, you might be upset, he said. “The changes that have happened in the Great Lakes are more dramatic than that.”

Underwater landscape

 

On recent sunny days near Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, a boy in a red jersey cast a fishing line from an old wooden dock; a woman on the beach, legs crossed, read a newspaper under a blue-green striped umbrella; from the top of a bluff, Lake Michigan’s surface flickered like the last moments of a firework. All along the shore you could spot the broken halves of bleached mussel shells.

A few miles out on the lake, framed by the towering dunes, U.S. Geological Survey scientists dove down to get a good look at Good Harbor Reef, a mix of cobblestones and sandy stretches.

They’d usually be diving to collect samples, said research fisheries biologist Peter Esselman, but as part of a project with the National Park Service, they were collecting 360-degree video footage to help people understand the underwater landscape — and its challenges. At Sleeping Bear, that includes invasive species.

On one dive, Glen Black, a biological science technician, scooped up mussels and crunched them in his hand for the video.

Along the lake bottom was another invasive species, Black said, the round goby — an invasive fish also from Eastern seas, now plentiful in Lake Michigan.

“You just see the bottom moving everywhere,” he said.

Esselman came up from a dive and stretched his hands beyond half a foot: “The algae’s about this high.”

As the mussels occupied the reef, so did nuisance cladophora algae, which appears to be linked to botulism outbreaks that left piles of birds — including endangered Great Lakes piping plovers — dead in the sand.

The mussels also choked historically important spawning grounds, just a few miles from Leland Harbor and Fishtown, where you can line up for fresh lake trout and whitefish.

The reef has subhabitats of sorts, some more optimal for fish spawning and mussel attachment than others, said Ben Turschak, a fisheries research biologist with the Michigan Department of Natural Resources. The department is working with the park service and geological survey to map and identify fish spawning habitat.

“That’ll help prioritize any kind of restoration or protection that we would do in the future,” Turschak said.

The places where native fish spawn aren’t infinite, said Brenda Moraska Lafrancois, aquatic ecologist with the National Park Service. “So we don’t need an infinite amount of invasive mussel removal effort either.”

“I think we’re actually getting to a point where you can envision a future where the most important parts of Good Harbor Reef are restored to some semblance of natural habitat,” she said.

Round goby’s role

The story of mussel removal in Lake Michigan is also the story of the reef, where researchers have tested hypotheses related to algae, mussels and bottom-dwellers for more than a decade. In 2016, they scraped off nearly 1 million mussels from an area the size of a studio apartment.

Scientists thought the mussels, whose millions of young float in the water and then settle down to colonize, might re-blanket the rocks after a year or two.

Five years later, some mussels occupy crevices, but the rocks are still largely mussel free.

Scientists think the round goby helped.

“They like small mussels because their shells are easier to crush and they’re easier to digest,” Bootsma said. “So we think what’s happening is that those rocks that we scraped just can’t get recolonized because anytime some small mussels settle on them and try to start growing, the gobies pick them off right away.”

Scientists are studying how the goby might give back to the food web; the fish are credited with reviving the Lake Erie water snake population. But they devour other small invertebrates — and native fish eggs.

Bootsma’s team set up a cage this summer with mussel-free rocks that are inaccessible to the gobies to see whether the mussels can recolonize.

“If the round gobies had gotten to the Great Lakes first, we might have avoided a lot of problems with invasive mussels,” Lafrancois said. But “invasive mussels are also probably part of why round gobies had such an easy time establishing here.”

The mussels also fed a “perfect storm for algae,” Bootsma said.

Nuisance cladophora algae was prevalent before controls aimed at reducing phosphorus from sewage pollution, farm runoff and detergents in the 1970s were put into place. The decaying shaglike mats announce their presence via a stench of rotting eggs.

Capable of filtering the entirety of Lake Michigan in less than two weeks, the mussels allowed more sunlight to reach the lake bottom where the algae grows — Lake Michigan is now sometimes clearer than Lake Superior — and their excreted nutrients offered an extra boost to algae growth.

In the removal patch, phosphorus content is lower in the algae on previously cleared rocks, in line with scientists’ hypotheses. But algae has returned to the rocks — another piece of the puzzle that keeps sending them underwater.

Ripple effects

In 2014, the EPA approved open water use of the molluscicide Zequanox, a treatment made up of dead cells from a soil bacteria that specifically targets mussels by destroying their digestive systems. A year later, the Invasive Mussel Collaborative formed.

“People thought, well, maybe there is something we can do about this,” said Erika Jensen, executive director of the Great Lakes Commission. “And we don’t just need to throw up our hands and accept that they’re here.”

As the collective, including the Great Lakes Commission, Geological Survey, NOAA and the Great Lakes Fishery Commission, among others, began to think about potential sites for mussel control projects, Good Harbor Reef, already a testing ground, was a natural fit.

But there were questions about how and where Zequanox could be used, and what would happen to a post-mussel ecosystem if they suddenly disappeared.

“If we were to be able to control them or suppress their populations to a significant degree, what ripple effects does that have for the rest of the ecosystem?” Jensen said. “And we still don’t have all the answers to that.”

A frame and tarp system was designed to pump Zequanox to cordoned-off areas of Good Harbor Reef over a few days in August 2019.

Bad weather caused delays — a challenge of working in open water — but mussel density was soon reduced by 95%.

Since, populations have crept back up more than the manual removal site; scientists think the treatment missed some mussels underneath rocks. But they’re still not as abundant as surrounding areas.

This summer, Bootsma hopes to try another control method at Good Harbor involving tarps — cheaper and less logistically demanding, but one that may take a lot longer to work.

The mussels would essentially be starved and smothered.

Aside from removal efforts, the findings from Good Harbor can help contribute to the development of mathematical models to play out future scenarios.

“You can say to the model, OK, now let’s see what happens to Lake Michigan if we reduce the number of mussels to 50% of what they are now, or if we warm the lake up by 3 degrees as a result of climate change,” Bootsma said. “And that’s really useful for managers because we want to know, for example, is there going to be more or less plankton in the future to support the food web and important fish in the lake?”

Growing larger

Lowell Friedman looked out on calm water and a smoky sky at Leland Harbor. He and his wife, a Michigan native, came to buy fresh fish on vacation. And, as kayakers, they’re familiar with invasive mussels.

“In the last 10 years we’ve now seen it move from just boaters to everything that enters the water has to be checked for mussels,” Friedman said.

The checks aren’t much of an inconvenience, and they’re necessary, he said, listing off the damage mussels have caused. And, Friedman said, “It keeps the ecosystem out of balance.”

A group within the mussel collaborative is developing a list of high-priority locations where control may be beneficial, looking at factors including: fish spawning and nursery habitat, cladophora algae and native mussel distribution, water intake infrastructure, and threatened and endangered fish species.

“They’re not good for fisheries, that’s for sure,” said Bob Lambe, executive secretary of the Great Lakes Fishery Commission.

Some Great Lakes fish have struggled through overfishing, pollution, the arrival of alewives and the devastation wrought by the invasive blood-sucking sea lamprey. Species like lake trout and salmon are somewhat stable in Lake Michigan, Lambe said, but mostly through aggressive restocking rather than natural reproduction.

In the latest survey of Lake Michigan prey fish, food for salmon and trout, their collective weight is comparable to surveys since the mid-2000s. But it’s still a fraction compared with earlier decades.

The mussels are faring better.

 

In 2015, 300 trillion mussels were counted in Lake Michigan, a drop from 480 trillion a decade ago, said Ashley Elgin, a research scientist with NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. But they’re growing larger and heavier, increasing from about 40 million tons to 50 million tons, collectively weighing more than 300,000 hefty blue whales.

The overall mussel population may be stabilizing, but in deeper offshore reaches, which comprise more than half of the lake, populations have grown slowly and steadily.

“Monitoring’s important so that we have our finger on the pulse with what’s happening with the population,” Elgin said. “Mussels are one of the major drivers and major stressors in the lake, so to understand where their populations are at helps us understand how the rest of the food web is responding.”

Monitoring food-web changes

During the Lake Michigan survey on the Lake Guardian, scientists send down devices called Ponar grabs, which scoop up the lake bottom for sampling.

Throughout Ponarpalooza — the affectionate term given to the survey — there’s excitement, and trepidation, in seeing food-web changes firsthand. The bottom-dwellers are good indicators of ecosystem health and change, said EPA environmental scientist Beth Hinchey Malloy.

“Everybody gathers around on the back deck when they’re bringing up those Ponars from the deep sites, because the big question is, are we going to find diporeia or not?” Malloy said. “And when you find them, a big cheer erupts on that back deck.”

Before mussels, diporeia, a shrimplike fish food, were the predominant bottom-dwellers, and an energy-rich food source. The “Snickers bars of the deep,” Elgin said. But they keep disappearing.

Scientists on the Lake Guardian also used video technology, a newer tool to assess mussel coverage. A map from SUNY Buffalo State scientists is expected soon.

“There’s a lot of anticipation to see what these population curves are going to look like with this new data from 2021,” Malloy said.

How climate change may affect mussel populations — as even the depths of Lake Michigan are warming — is another question. Warming water may help mussel growth, Elgin said, but may also hamper food availability.

For now, with populations in the hundreds of trillions, the mussels are a driving force.

“The quagga and zebra mussels, they’re true ecosystem engineers,” Elgin said.

Advocates and officials are still fighting for more stringent ballast water regulations to prevent the next invader from occupying waterways.

Scientists, meanwhile, fixate on the ones already here, building on each small victory.