Who’s to blame for climate change? Scientists don’t hold back in new federal report.

USA Today

Who’s to blame for climate change? Scientists don’t hold back in new federal report.

Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice – November 14, 2023 President Joe Biden slams 'MAGA Republican leaders,' claims they deny climate change

Climate change is here and prompting unprecedented actions in every state to curb the greenhouse gas emissions fueling warming temperatures, but a new federal report out Tuesday says bigger, bolder steps are needed.

After several years of work by more than 500 authors from every state, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Guam, the White House released the massive Fifth National Climate Assessment.

In remarks Tuesday morning, President Joe Biden announced more than $6 billion to bolster the electric grid, update water infrastructure, reduce flooding, and advance environmental justice.

“This assessment shows us in clear scientific terms, that climate change is impacting all regions, all sectors of the United States,” Biden said. “We’ve come to the point where it’s foolish for anyone to deny the impacts of climate change anymore.”

The assessment includes more evidence than ever before to demonstrate the cause and effects of the changing climate, said L. Ruby Leung, one of its authors. It also breaks from previous reports by saying unequivocally that humans are responsible for changes to Earth’s climate.

“It’s important for us to recognize that how much climate change we will be experiencing in the future depends on the choices that we make now,” said Leung, a climate scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and lead author on the earth sciences chapter.

All of the impacts people are feeling, like sea level rise and extreme weather events, she said “are tied to the global warming level, to how warm the earth becomes,” Leung said. “And that depends very much on the level of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.”

In other news, the United Nations released its latest analysis of national climate plans on Tuesday morning and found them “strikingly misaligned” with science. “The chasm between need and action is more menacing than ever,” said Secretary-General António Guterres. “It’s time for a climate ambition supernova in every country, city and sector.”

The impacts of climate change are felt in every corner of the country, the latest National Climate Assessment finds
The impacts of climate change are felt in every corner of the country, the latest National Climate Assessment finds
What is the 2023 National Climate Assessment?

The massive assessment describes the climate and economic impacts Americans will see if further action is not taken to address climate change. The report, issued roughly every four years, was mandated by Congress in the late 1980s and is meant as a reference for the president, Congress, and the public.

“Too many people still think of climate change as an issue that’s distanced from us in space or time or relevance,” said Katharine Hayhoe, an author of the report and chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy.

The assessment “clearly explains how climate change is affecting us here in the places where we live, both now and in the future and across every sector of human and natural society,” Hayhoe said. It also shows that “the risks matter and so do our choices.”

Climate Nexus, a nonprofit communications organization, said the new report is “essential reading,” because it highlights the seriousness of current impacts and shows the existing pace of adaptation isn’t enough to keep pace with future climate changes.

“Without deeper cuts in global net greenhouse gas emissions and accelerated adaptation efforts, severe climate risks to the United States will continue to grow,” the report states. “Each additional increment of warming is expected to lead to more damage and greater economic losses.”

However, greater reductions in carbon emissions could reduce the risks and impacts, and have immediate health and economic benefits, the report states.

Another heat record? Earth is historically and alarmingly hot. Now what?

What are the effects of climate change?

Millions are experiencing more extreme heat waves, with warmer temperatures and longer-lasting heat waves, the report states. It adds climate changes are apparent in every region of the country.

Among the noted effects:

◾ The number of nights with minimum low temperatures at or above 70 degrees has increased compared to 1901-1960 in every corner of the country except the northern Great Plains and Alaska.

◾ Average annual precipitation is increasing in most regions, except the Northwest, Southwest, and Hawaii.

◾ Heavier precipitation events are increasing everywhere except Hawaii and the Caribbean.

◾ Relative sea levels are increasing along much of the coast, except for Oregon, Washington, and Alaska.

◾ In the 1980s, the country experienced on average a $1 billion disaster every four months but now experiences one every three weeks. This year, the country has set a new record with 25 billion-dollar disasters.

Fishers and the warming climate Climb aboard four fishing boats with us to see how America’s warming waters are changing

Climate scientists around the world say 2023 is almost certain to be the globe’s warmest year in recorded human history. The global mean temperature through October was 1.4 Celsius (more than 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average.

So far this year, the nation is experiencing its 11th warmest year on record through October, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. However, 12 states are experiencing their warmest or second warmest year on record.

Growing evidence that humans are changing the climate

This assessment is most notable for the certainty scientists have gained about warming and its impacts, said Leung, who served as the lead author for the report’s Earth Systems Processes chapter, which lays the scientific groundwork and is used to illustrate points throughout the report.

The chapter, a collaboration among more than a dozen authors, was intended to answer such questions as whether humans are causing global warming, whether warming is changing extreme weather and climate events and how much warming the planet might expect to see.

In prior reports, scientists often hedged their statements, for example saying they were 90% sure humans were responsible for the changes being seen,” Leung said. “In this NCA 5 report, we are now saying that we are totally sure.”

Starting from the 1900s, the observed warming has been caused by human activities, she said. “It’s definitive.”

Another key difference is scientists reduced by 50% the uncertainty in how much temperatures would warm if the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles, she said. In previous assessments that number had hovered around a range from 2.7 degrees to 8 degrees. “It was a pretty big range,” she said. “Our goal has always been to narrow this down.”

Thanks to the increase in instrumental observations, satellite data, the study of the paleoclimate, and higher resolution computer modeling, scientists now have amassed more evidence than ever before, giving them more certainty, she said. “Now we can say that the global warming that is caused by a doubling of the CO2 in the atmosphere should be between 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.”

The Fifth National Climate Assessment shows the U.S. has warmed rapidly since the 1970s.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment shows the U.S. has warmed rapidly since the 1970s.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Efforts to adapt to climate change, reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, and be more energy efficient are underway in every U.S. region and have expanded since 2018, the report concludes.

Greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. fell 12% between 2005 and 2019, mostly driven by changes in the way electricity is produced, the assessment concluded. The nation burns less coal, but more natural gas, which is cleaner. Because of the electrical industry’s 40% reduction in emissions, the transportation sector took the lead as the industry with the most emissions.

Growth in the capacity of wind, solar, and battery storage is supported by the falling costs of those technologies, and that ultimately means even more emissions reductions, the report states. For example, wind and solar energy costs have dropped 70% and 90%, respectively.

While the options for cleaner technologies and lower energy use have expanded, the authors found they aren’t happening fast enough for the nation to meet the goal of achieving a carbon-neutral energy system.

Without deeper cuts in global net greenhouse gas emissions and accelerated adaptation efforts, the scientists found severe climate risks to the United States will continue to grow. Each additional increment of warming is expected to lead to more damage and greater economic losses compared to previous increments of warming, and the risks of catastrophic consequences also increase.

But the report also finds that reducing greenhouse gas emissions and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere can limit future warming and associated increases in many risks, and bring immediate health and economic benefits.

What others are saying about the report:

The scientific assessment is “the latest in a series of alarm bells and illustrates that the changes we’re living through are unprecedented in human history,” said Kristina Dahl, a principal climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists and a contributor to the report. “The science is irrefutable: we must swiftly reduce heat-trapping emissions and enact transformational climate adaptation policies in every region of the country to limit the stampede of devastating events and the toll each one takes on our lives and the economy.”

The report illustrates three things, said Arati Prabhakar, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

◾ The events Americans have already experienced firsthand are “unfolding as predicted.”

◾ Communities in every state and territory have taken action.

◾ People across the nation can use the assessment to take future actions.

For example, Prabhakar said the report could be used by a water utility manager in Chicago trying to understand extreme rainfall, an urban planner deciding where to locate cooling centers in Texas, or a manager of a Southeastern hospital trying to get ahead of the diseases ticks and mosquitoes are bringing into their region as a result of the changing climate.

What an increase of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit over pre-industrial temperatures would feel like in the United States.
What an increase of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit over pre-industrial temperatures would feel like in the United States.

Mind-altering ketamine becomes latest pain treatment, despite little research or regulation

Associated Press

Mind-altering ketamine becomes latest pain treatment, despite little research or regulation

Matthew Perrone – November 6, 2023

Dr. Padma Gulur, a Duke University pain specialist, stands for a portrait on Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Prescriptions for ketamine have soared in recent years as doctors adopt the mind-altering drug as an alternative pain treatment. Gulur and other specialists see potential for ketamine as a pain therapy, but warn it also carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
Dr. Padma Gulur, a Duke University pain specialist, stands for a portrait on Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Prescriptions for ketamine have soared in recent years as doctors adopt the mind-altering drug as an alternative pain treatment. Gulur and other specialists see potential for ketamine as a pain therapy, but warn it also carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
Medical equipment used to customize ketamine infusions for patients is seen at the Duke Specialty Infusion Center, Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Ketamine prescriptions have soared in recent years as an alternative to opioids for pain. But with little research on its effectiveness, some experts worry about the risks of overprescribing another powerful drug that carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
Medical equipment used to customize ketamine infusions for patients is seen at the Duke Specialty Infusion Center, Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Ketamine prescriptions have soared in recent years as an alternative to opioids for pain. But with little research on its effectiveness, some experts worry about the risks of overprescribing another powerful drug that carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
The Duke Specialty Infusion Center is seen prior to opening for patients, Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Ketamine prescriptions have soared in recent years as an alternative to opioids for pain. But with little research on its effectiveness, some experts worry about the risks of overprescribing another powerful drug that carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
The Duke Specialty Infusion Center is seen prior to opening for patients, Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Ketamine prescriptions have soared in recent years as an alternative to opioids for pain. But with little research on its effectiveness, some experts worry about the risks of overprescribing another powerful drug that carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
Dr. Padma Gulur, a Duke University pain specialist, stands for a portrait on Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Prescriptions for ketamine have soared in recent years as doctors adopt the mind-altering drug as an alternative pain treatment. Gulur and other specialists see potential for ketamine as a pain therapy, but warn it also carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
Dr. Padma Gulur, a Duke University pain specialist, stands for a portrait on Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Prescriptions for ketamine have soared in recent years as doctors adopt the mind-altering drug as an alternative pain treatment. Gulur and other specialists see potential for ketamine as a pain therapy, but warn it also carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
Saline fluid runs through a tube demonstrating how ketamine would be administered to a patient at the Duke Speciality Infusion Center on Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Ketamine prescriptions have soared in recent years as an alternative to opioids for pain. But with little research on its effectiveness, some experts worry about the risks of overprescribing another powerful drug that carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
Saline fluid runs through a tube demonstrating how ketamine would be administered to a patient at the Duke Speciality Infusion Center on Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Ketamine prescriptions have soared in recent years as an alternative to opioids for pain. But with little research on its effectiveness, some experts worry about the risks of overprescribing another powerful drug that carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
A lockbox is held to show where ketamine is placed into while administered at the Duke Speciality Infusion Center, Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Ketamine prescriptions have soared in recent years as an alternative to opioids for pain. But with little research on its effectiveness, some experts worry about the risks of overprescribing another powerful drug that carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)
A lockbox is held to show where ketamine is placed into while administered at the Duke Speciality Infusion Center, Friday, Oct. 27, 2023, in Durham, N.C. Ketamine prescriptions have soared in recent years as an alternative to opioids for pain. But with little research on its effectiveness, some experts worry about the risks of overprescribing another powerful drug that carries risks of safety and abuse. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)

WASHINGTON (AP) — As U.S. doctors scale back their use of opioid painkillers, a new option for hard-to-treat pain is taking root: ketamine, the decades-old surgical drug that is now a trendy psychedelic therapy.

Prescriptions for ketamine have soared in recent years, driven by for-profit clinics and telehealth services offering the medication as a treatment for pain, depression, anxiety and other conditions. The generic drug can be purchased cheaply and prescribed by most physicians and some nurses, regardless of their training.

With limited research on its effectiveness against pain, some experts worry the U.S. may be repeating mistakes that gave rise to the opioid crisisoverprescribing a questionable drug that carries significant safety and abuse risks.

“There’s a paucity of options for pain and so there’s a tendency to just grab the next thing that can make a difference,” said Dr. Padma Gulur, a Duke University pain specialist who is studying ketamine’s use. “A medical journal will publish a few papers saying, ‘Oh, look, this is doing good things,’ and then there’s rampant off-label use, without necessarily the science behind it.”

When Gulur and her colleagues tracked 300 patients receiving ketamine at Duke, more than a third of them reported significant side effects that required professional attention, such as hallucinations, troubling thoughts and visual disturbances.

Ketamine also didn’t result in lower rates of opioid prescribing in the months following treatment, a common goal of therapy, according to Gulur. Her research is under review for medical journal publication.

PSYCHEDELIC EXPERIENCE

Ketamine was approved more than 50 years ago as a powerful anesthetic for patients undergoing surgery. At lower doses, it can produce psychedelic, out-of-body experiences, which made it a popular club drug in the 1990s. With its recent adoption for pain, patients are increasingly encountering those same effects.

Daniel Bass, of Southgate, Kentucky, found the visual disturbances “horrifying.” His doctors prescribed four- to six-hour IV infusions of ketamine for pain related to a rare bone and joint disorder. Seated in a bare hospital room with no stimulation or guidance on the drug’s psychological effects, Bass says he felt “like a lab rat.”

Still, he credits ketamine with reducing his pain during the year that he received twice-a-month infusions.

“No matter how horrific an experience is, if it allows me to be more functional, I will do it,” Bass said.

Ketamine targets a brain chemical messenger called glutamate, which is thought to play a role in both pain and depression. It’s unclear whether the psychedelic experience is part of the drug’s therapeutic effect, though some practitioners consider it essential.

“We want patients to disassociate or feel separate from their pain, depression or anxiety,” said Dr. David Mahjoubi, owner of Ketamine Healing Clinic in Los Angeles. “If they feel like they’re just sitting in the chair the whole time, we actually give them more.”

Mahjoubi’s practice is typical of the burgeoning industry: He offers IV ketamine for alcohol addiction, chronic pain, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder. The ketamine doses for those indications are well below those used for surgery, but Mahjoubi favors higher doses for pain than for psychiatric conditions.

Patients pay cash because most insurers don’t cover non-surgical uses of ketamine, none of which are approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Mahjoubi’s background is in anesthesiology, not psychiatry or addiction.

Patients can pay extra for ketamine nasal sprays and tablets to use between infusions. Those formulations are also not FDA approved and are compounded by specialty pharmacies.

Sending ketamine through the mail has become its own profitable business for telehealth services, such as MindBloom, which jumped into the space after regulators relaxed online prescribing rules during COVID-19.

Pain specialists who study ketamine say there’s little evidence for those versions.

“The literature for the nasal and oral formulations is pretty scant,” said Dr. Eric Schwenk of Thomas Jefferson University. “There’s just not a lot of good evidence to guide you.”

Demand for ketamine has sent prescriptions soaring more than 500% since 2017, according to Epic Research, which analyzed the trend using a database of more than 125 million patients. In each year, pain was the No. 1 condition for which ketamine was prescribed, though depression has been rising quickly.

The prescribing boom has led to shortages of manufactured ketamine, driving up sales of compounded versions.

There is more evidence for ketamine’s use against depression than for pain. In 2019, the FDA approved a ketamine-related chemical developed by Johnson & Johnson for severe depression. The drug, Spravato, is subject to strict FDA safety rules on where and how it can be administered by doctors.

Guidelines from pain societies note some evidence for ketamine’s use in complex regional pain, a chronic condition that usually affects the limbs. But the experts found “weak or no evidence” for ketamine in many more conditions, including back pain, migraines, fibromyalgia and cancer pain.

THE ‘WILD WEST’ OF KETAMINE PRESCRIBING

While the science behind ketamine is murky, the business model is clear: Physicians can purchase ketamine for less than $100 a vial and charge $500 to $1,500 per infusion.

The recent boom has been fueled, in part, by venture capital investors. Another set of consulting businesses offer to help doctors set up new clinics.

A blog post from one, Ketamine Startup, lists “Five reasons you should open a ketamine clinic,” including: “You want to be your own boss” and “You want to take control of your money-making ability.”

The clinics are facing increasing competition from telehealth services like MindBloom and Joyous, which connect potential patients with physicians who can prescribe ketamine remotely and send it through the mail.

In May, federal regulators were scheduled to roll back the COVID-era policy that allowed online prescribing of high-risk drugs like ketamine and opioids. But the Drug Enforcement Administration, facing backlash for telehealth companies and physicians, agreed to extend the flexible approach through 2024.

The current landscape is a “wild west,” said Dr. Samuel Wilkinson, a Yale University psychiatrist who prescribes both Spravato and ketamine for depression. U.S. physicians have “quite a bit of latitude” to prescribe drugs for unapproved, or off-label, uses.

“There’s good things about that and not-so-good things about that,” he said.

When used at high doses, ketamine can cause bladder damage, sometimes seen in people who use the drug recreationally. Far less is known about the neurological effects of long-term use. Ketamine was linked to brain abnormalities in rat studies, FDA regulators note.

Last month, the FDA warned doctors and patients against compounded versions of ketamine, including lozenges and pills, saying the agency does not regulate their contents and cannot assure their safety. The warning followed a similar advisory last year about nasal spray versions of ketamine.

But most compounding pharmacies are small operations, overseen by state officials, not the FDA.

In April, Massachusetts’ board of pharmacy flagged the FDA’s warning to local pharmacies, but noted that state officials wouldn’t take any steps to stop “the continued compounding and dispensing of ketamine nasal spray.”

The FDA likewise has little leverage over physicians promoting ketamine, even those making exaggerated or misleading claims.

Drugmakers are subject to strict FDA regulation in how they promote their medicines — with requirements to balance risk and benefit information. Those rules don’t apply to physicians.

Even when the FDA has tried to regulate risky in-office procedures, such as unproven stem cell infusions, the agency has had a mixed track record of prevailing in court.

For now, experts say it’s unlikely regulators will go beyond their recent warnings about off-label ketamine.

“There’s an element of whack-a-mole and it’s essentially beyond their regulatory purview,” said Dr. Caleb Alexander, a drug safety researcher at Johns Hopkins University. “These clinics would represent yet another front that they would be hard pressed to manage and address.”

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

A man with Parkinson’s who was unable to walk without falling is enjoying Sunday strolls again thanks to a spine implant

Insider

A man with Parkinson’s who was unable to walk without falling is enjoying Sunday strolls again thanks to a spine implant

Kim Schewitz – November 6, 2023

  • A man who has had Parkinson’s for 30 years could hardly walk on his own and had to stay home.
  • Scientists implanted a device in his spine that stimulates his leg muscles with electrical impulses.
  • Two years on he can climb stairs, go shopping, and walk almost four miles independently.

A man diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease almost 30 years ago who could barely walk on his own can now climb stairs and go out independently again thanks to a potentially revolutionary device implanted in his spinal cord.

Marc Gautier, 62, from a small town near Bordeaux, France, has lived with Parkinson’s since he was 36, and was forced to stop working as an architect three years ago when his mobility got so bad that he was falling down five to six times a day, meaning he often had to stay at home.

“I practically could not walk anymore without falling frequently, several times a day. In some situations, such as entering a lift, I’d trample on the spot, as though I was frozen there,” Gautier said in a press release.

Two years since the device was surgically implanted, however, he can once again do many things he used to enjoy.

“Every Sunday I go to the lake, and I walk around six kilometers. It’s incredible,” he said.

The implant stimulates sensory fibers connected to muscles

Parkinson’s is a degenerative disease where people don’t have enough dopamine — a neurotransmitter responsible for many bodily functions — in their brain, which can lead to physical symptoms including rigidity and tremors.

Parkinson’s is most common in older people and men, with symptoms typically appearing in those over 50, but it can occur in people under 40, too.

Treatments typically include taking dopamine and deep brain stimulation, where electrodes implanted in the brain produce electrical impulses that affect brain activity. These are usually effective but can stop working as the patient’s condition worsens over time.

Around 90% of people with advanced Parkinson’s experience walking problems, such as gait impairments, balance problems, and freezing-of-gait episodes, which reduce their quality of life, study co-author Jocelyne Bloch, director of the NeuroRestore treatment center that researches implantable neurotechnologies, and senior attending neurosurgeon at University Hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland, said in a press video.

Scientists from Switzerland and France worked to develop the new treatment by designing and implanting a device, known as a neuroprosthesis, into Gautier’s spinal cord.

In healthy people without Parkinson’s, muscles move after being stimulated by sensory fibers. In Gautier’s case, the fibers in his legs were weakened by Parkinson’s, meaning the sensory feedback loop was not strong enough to make them move properly, co-author Grégoire Courtine, professor of neuroscience at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, told a press conference. The implant works by stimulating the weakened sensory fibers attached to the leg muscles.

“So if you imagine the stretch reflex, you go to the doctor, there’s a tendon with the hammer, you hit the tendon and then you have a reflex. That’s exactly this pathway that we are mobilizing with the stimulation,” he said. Gautier can turn the stimulation on and off himself, the authors said.

“Instead of focusing on the region of the brain that’s deprived of dopamine, we thought that we could focus on the spinal cord, that ultimately is responsible for the activation of leg muscle in order to walk,” Courtine said.

The team published their findings in Nature Medicine on Monday.

Gautier’s walking improved almost immediately

After the device was implanted, Gautier quickly saw his walking start to improve, according to the study, and following several weeks of rehabilitation, it had nearly returned to normal.

He currently uses his neuroprosthetic for around eight hours a day, only turning it off when sitting down for a long period or sleeping, according to the press release.

The study’s authors are excited about the possibility of turning this proof of concept into a widely available therapy to treat mobility problems in people with Parkinson’s, they told a press conference.

“I really believe that these results open realistic perspectives to develop a treatment that alleviates gait deficits due to Parkinson’s disease and therefore look forward to testing this new therapy in six additional patients,” Bloch said.

The authors said further testing would happen within the next 18 months, but if successful, the treatment would not be commercially available for at least five to ten years.

David Dexter, director of research at Parkinson’s UK, who was not involved in the study, told Insider: “This research is still at a very early stage and requires much more development and testing before it can be made available to people with Parkinson’s, however, this is a significant and exciting step forward and we hope to see this research progress quickly.”

Eduardo Fernández, director of the Institute of Bioengineering at the Miguel Hernandez University of Elche, Spain, who was also not involved in the research, said in a statement that Parkinson’s patients with mobility issues can often respond poorly to standard treatments that focus primarily on the areas of the brain directly affected by the loss of dopamine-producing neurons. He described the new approach as “very innovative” because it involves areas of the nervous system not affected by the disease.

“The future is hopeful, but it is necessary to advance little by little and not to create false expectations that could damage the credibility of this research,” he said.

China rushes to swap Western tech with domestic options as U.S. cracks down

Reuters

China rushes to swap Western tech with domestic options as U.S. cracks down

Reuters – October 25, 2023

FILE PHOTO: Servers are seen inside Huawei's factory campus in Dongguan, Guangdong province
FILE PHOTO: Huawei store in Shanghai

Servers are seen inside Huawei’s factory campus in Dongguan, Guangdong province

BEIJING (Reuters) – China has stepped up spending to replace Western-made technology with domestic alternatives as Washington tightens curbs on high-tech exports to its rival, according to government tenders, research documents and four people familiar with the matter.

Reuters is reporting for the first time details of tenders from the government, military and state-linked entities, which show an acceleration in domestic substitution since last year.

China has spent heavily on replacing computer equipment, and the telecom and financial sectors are probably the next target, said two people familiar with the industries. State-backed researchers also identified digital payments as particularly vulnerable to possible Western hacking, according to a review of their work, making a push to indigenize such technology likely.

The number of tenders from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), government and military bodies to nationalize equipment doubled to 235 from 119 in the 12 months after September 2022, according to a finance ministry database seen by Reuters.

In the same period, the value of awarded projects listed on the database totaled 156.9 million yuan, or more than triple the previous year.

While the database represents only a fraction of tender bids nationwide, it is the largest collection of state tenders publicly available and mirrors third-party data. China spent 1.4 trillion yuan ($191 billion) replacing foreign hardware and software in 2022, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, according to IT research firm First New Voice.

But Beijing’s lack of advanced chip-manufacturing capabilities prevents it from completely substituting products with alternatives that are entirely locally made, analysts say.

Previous domestic substitution efforts stalled because China did not have the “technical chops to pull off localization until now, and to a certain extent they still kind of don’t,” said Kendra Schaefer, head of tech policy research at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

FEAR OF DEPENDENCE

SOEs were instructed last year to replace office software systems with domestic products by 2027, the first time such specific deadlines were imposed, according to five brokerage firms that cited a September 2022 order from China’s state asset regulator. Reuters could not independently verify the order.

Domestic replacement projects this year have targeted markedly sensitive infrastructure, the tenders show.

One partially redacted tender for a “certain government department in Gansu province” assigned 4.4 million yuan to replace an intelligence-gathering system’s equipment, without providing specifics.

People’s Liberation Army units in the northeastern city of Harbin and Xiamen in the south last December meanwhile issued tenders to replace foreign-made computers.

Tech researchers such as Mo Jianlei of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the country’s largest state-run research organization, said the Chinese government was increasingly concerned about Western equipment being hacked by foreign powers.

The state asset regulator did not return a request for comment.

Over the past year, state-linked researchers also called on Beijing to strengthen anti-hacking defences in its financial infrastructure due to geopolitical concerns.

One March research paper highlighted the dependence of China’s UnionPay credit card system on U.S software firm BMC for settlements.

“Beware of security vulnerabilities in hardware and software set by the U.S. side … build a financial security ‘firewall’,” the researchers wrote.

BMC declined to comment.

An article published this year in the journal Cyberspace Security by researchers from the state-run China Telecommunications Corporation concluded the country was overdependent on chips made by U.S. giant Qualcomm for back-end management, as well as on the iOS and Android systems.

“(They) are all firmly controlled by American companies,” the researchers wrote.

As China has not signed World Trade Organization clauses governing public procurement, the substitution effort does not appear to violate international accords, according to the U.S. Treasury. The U.S. has implemented similar rules barring Chinese companies from public sector bids.

Qualcomm, Google and Apple did not immediately return requests for comment.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

China’s effort to build an independent computing system dates back to at least its 2006 five-year plan for science and technology development, which listed the semiconductor and software systems sectors as national priorities.

This effort spawned state-owned companies that are increasingly winning major contracts. Two firms awarded the Harbin tenders were subsidiaries of China Electronics Corporation and China Electronics Technology Group Corporation – both heavily targeted by U.S. sanctions.

The state regulator’s 2022 order pushed SOEs away from U.S. companies such as Microsoft and Adobe, according to an employee of a Beijing-based firm that develops domestic office-processing software

China Tobacco, for example, in July began switching some subsidiaries from Microsoft Windows to Huawei’s EulerOS, according to an employee of a software vendor that services the state-owned manufacturer.

The people spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss clients and competitors.

For years, Western tech companies have shared their source code and entered into partnerships with domestic firms to address Beijing’s concerns, but prominent computer scientists such as Ni Guangnan of the Chinese Academy of Engineering have said such measures are not sufficient for China’s security needs.

China Tobacco, Microsoft and Adobe did not respond to requests for comment.

In September, Reuters and other outlets reported that some employees of central government agencies were banned from using iPhones at work.

“In certain sectors, customers … are opting for domestic suppliers, with foreign suppliers frequently facing informal barriers,” the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing said in response to Reuters questions.

In a 2023 American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai report, 89% of the organization’s tech business members named procurement practices favoring domestic competitors as a regulatory obstacle. It was the highest percentage of any sector.

AmCham Shanghai President Eric Zheng acknowledged China’s national security concerns but said he hoped “normal procurement procedures will not be politicized so that US companies can compete fairly and pursue commercial opportunities … to benefit both countries.”

The U.S. Department of Commerce, China Electronics Corporation and China Electronics Technology Group Corporation did not return requests for comment.

HUAWEI PRIZED

Chinese tech conglomerate Huawei has emerged as the leading firm in this replacement cycle, according to three people familiar with China’s enterprise tech industry, who spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue.

In 2022, Huawei’s enterprise business, which includes software and cloud computing operations, reported 133 billion yuan in sales, up 30% on the previous year.

One of the people said privately-held Huawei was seen as more nimble than state-owned groups in rolling out products and executing projects.

The other two sources highlighted Huawei’s broad product suite – spanning chips to software – as an advantage.

Clients also prize Huawei for its ability to process data on internal company servers and external cloud networks, as well as its wide offering of cybersecurity products, according to the employee of a China Tobacco tech supplier.

Huawei declined to comment.

The replacement drive has re-drawn entire sub-sectors of the software industry. The combined China market share held by five major foreign makers of database management systems – the majority of which are American – dropped from 57.3% in 2018 to 27.3% by the end of 2022, according to industry group IDC.

Despite heavy spending on domestic substitution, however, foreign firms are still dominant suppliers for banking and telecoms database management. Non-Chinese companies held 90% of market share for banking database systems at the end of 2022, according to EqualOcean, a tech consultancy.

Financial institutions are generally reluctant to switch database systems despite government pressure, said one of the industry sources, adding that they have higher stability requirements than many other sectors and local players cannot yet match their needs.

Even for personal computers, banks that switch from an international brand to China’s dominant supplier Lenovo would still be reliant on critical chip components provided by Western firms, one of the industry sources said.

($1 = 7.3165 Chinese yuan)

(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Brenda Goh and Katerina Ang)

Facts about Glyphosate From drugwatch.com/roundup

By Michelle Llamas, Bd Cert. Patient Adv, October 11, 2023

Michelle Llamas has been writing articles and producing podcasts about drugs, medical devices and the FDA for nearly a decade. She focuses on various medical conditions, health policy, COVID-19, LGBTQ health, mental health and women’s health issues. Michelle collaborates with experts, including board-certified doctors, patients and advocates, to provide trusted health information to the public. Some of her qualifications include:

  • Member of American Medical Writers Association (AMWA) and former Engage Committee and Membership Committee member
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Health Literacy certificates
  • Original works published or cited in The Lancet, British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology and the Journal for Palliative Medicine
  • Board Certified Patient Advocate, Patient Advocacy Certificate from University of Miami.

“Glyphosate, the active component found in popular herbicides such as Roundup, sees extensive application in agriculture to combat unwanted weeds that compete with crops. Nevertheless, apprehensions have surfaced concerning its safety and potential impacts on health. Legal disputes have arisen, asserting that exposure to glyphosate through products like Roundup might be connected to specific types of cancer, notably non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Glyphosate operates by inhibiting the enzyme EPSP synthase, causing disruptions in plant growth that ultimately result in the plant’s demise. While some regulatory authorities consider the levels of glyphosate in food as safe, concerns regarding its long-term consequences continue to grow. Typical repercussions of exposure include skin and respiratory irritations, and research indicates potential associations between glyphosate and both cancer and neurological disorders. Certain countries within the European Union have imposed bans on glyphosate, and Bayer, the manufacturer of Roundup, has encountered significant settlements in legal actions in the United States lawsuits linked to glyphosate exposure.”

Tips for Reducing Glyphosate Exposure

People can avoid glyphosate use with several Roundup alternatives. These include manual or mechanical methods of weed pulling, such as small and large hand tools, tillers and other mechanical methods.

Natural or organic herbicides whose active ingredients are vinegar or essential oils are also an option. Ask your local home and garden center for organic or natural herbicides that do not contain glyphosate.

Drugwatch.com writers follow rigorous sourcing guidelines and cite only trustworthy sources of information, including peer-reviewed journals, court records, academic organizations, highly regarded nonprofit organizations, government reports and interviews with qualified experts. Review our editorial policy to learn more about our process for producing accurate, current and balanced content.

Rogue AI will learn to ‘manipulate people’ to stop it from being switched off, predicts British ‘Godfather of AI’

Fortune

Rogue AI will learn to ‘manipulate people’ to stop it from being switched off, predicts British ‘Godfather of AI’

Ryan Hogg – October 10, 2023

Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile for Collision via Getty Images

The “Godfather of AI,” and one of its biggest critics, believes the technology will soon become smarter than humans and could learn to manipulate them.

Geoffrey Hinton, a former AI engineer at Googletold 60 Minutes he expected artificial intelligence to become self-aware in time, making humans the second most intelligent beings on the planet.

Humans have about 100 trillion neural connections, while the biggest AI chatbots have just 1 trillion connections, according to Hinton.

However, he suggests the knowledge contained within those connections is likely much more than that contained in humans.

Eventually, Hinton says, computer systems might be able to write their own code to modify themselves, in a sense going rogue. And if it does, he thinks AI will have a way to stop itself from being switched off by humans.

“They will be able to manipulate people,” Hinton told 60 Minutes.

“These will be very good at convincing because they’ll have learned from all the novels that were ever written, all the books by Machiavelli, all the political connivances. They’ll know all that stuff.”

Bigger threat than climate change

Hinton quit his role as an engineer at Google in May after more than a decade with the company, in part to speak out against the growing risks of the technology and lobby for safeguards and regulations against it.

While at Google, Hinton helped build the AI chatbot Bard, the tech giant’s competitor to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. He also set the foundations for the growth of AI through his pioneering neural network, which helped him win a prestigious Turing Award.

Since he quit, Hinton has been one of the leading voices warning of AI’s dangers. Following his resignation announcement in the New York Times, he told Reuters he thought the tech had become a bigger threat to humans than climate change.

In late May, he was at the top of a list of hundreds of experts, which included OpenAI founder Sam Altman, calling for urgent regulation of AI.

“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war,” the 22-word statement read.

Hinton’s biggest worry about AI right now pertains to the labor market. He told 60 Minutes he feared a whole class of people would find themselves unemployed as more capable AI systems take their place.

In the longer run, though, he worries about AI’s militaristic potential. In his interview with 60 Minutes, Hinton called for governments to commit to not building battlefield robots. The warning is akin to J. Robert Oppenheimer’s calls to stop world leaders from developing nuclear weapons after he pioneered the first atomic bomb.

Hinton summed up by saying he couldn’t see a path that guarantees safety, adding he wasn’t sure robots could ever be stopped from wanting to take over humanity.

The world’s major governments appear to have heard Hinton’s and others’ warnings loud and clear.

The U.K. will host the first global AI summit in November, which is expected to be attended by 100 politicians, academics, and AI experts.

It could lay the groundwork for sweeping regulatory changes by major countries including the United States.

The U.S. is crafting an AI Bill of Rights, and in the coming months is expected to bring in safeguards that tech companies must abide by.

The European Union is crafting its own guardrails around AI, titled the AI Act. However, the potential for varying regulations based on geography is creating tension.

In June, more than 150 major European execs requested the EU pull back on its proposed restrictions around AI, including increased bureaucracy and tests on certain tech’s safety. They argued these would create a “critical productivity gap” in the region that would leave it trailing the U.S.

Global temperatures are off the charts for a reason: 4 factors driving 2023’s extreme heat and climate disasters

The Conversation

Global temperatures are off the charts for a reason: 4 factors driving 2023’s extreme heat and climate disasters

Michael Wysession, Professor of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis. October 6, 2023

2023's weather has been extreme in many ways. <a href=
2023’s weather has been extreme in many ways. AP Photo/Michael Probst

Between the record-breaking global heat and extreme downpours, it’s hard to ignore that something unusual is going on with the weather in 2023.

People have been quick to blame climate change – and they’re right: Human-caused global warming does play the biggest role. For example, a study determined that the weekslong heat wave in Texas, the U.S. Southwest and Mexico that started in June 2023 would have been virtually impossible without it.

However, the extremes this year are sharper than anthropogenic global warming alone would be expected to cause. September temperatures were far above any previous September, and around 3.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.75 degrees Celsius) above the preindustrial average, according to the European Union’s earth observation program.

July was Earth’s hottest month on record, also by a large margin, with average global temperatures more than half a degree Fahrenheit (a third of a degree Celsius) above the previous record, set just a few years earlier in 2019.

September 2023’s temperatures were far above past Septembers. <a href=
September 2023’s temperatures were far above past Septembers. Copernicus
July 2023 was the hottest month on record and well above past Julys. <a href=
July 2023 was the hottest month on record and well above past Julys. Copernicus Climate Change ServiceMore

Human activities have been increasing temperatures at an average of about 0.2 F (0.1 C) per decade. But this year, three additional natural factors are also helping drive up global temperatures and fuel disasters: El Niño, solar fluctuations and a massive underwater volcanic eruption.

Unfortunately, these factors are combining in a way that is exacerbating global warming. Still worse, we can expect unusually high temperatures to continue, which means even more extreme weather in the near future.

An illustration by the author shows the typical relative impact on temperature rise driven by human activities compared with natural forces. El Niño/La Niña and solar energy cycles fluctuate. The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano’s underwater eruption exacerbated global warming. Michael Wysession
An illustration by the author shows the typical relative impact on temperature rise driven by human activities compared with natural forces. El Niño/La Niña and solar energy cycles fluctuate. The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano’s underwater eruption exacerbated global warming. Michael Wysession
How El Niño is involved

El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs every few years when surface water in the tropical Pacific reverses direction and heats up. That warms the atmosphere above, which influences temperatures and weather patterns around the globe.

Essentially, the atmosphere borrows heat out of the Pacific, and global temperatures increase slightly. This happened in 2016, the time of the last strong El Niño. Global temperatures increased by about 0.25 F (0.14 C) on average, making 2016 the warmest year on record. A weak El Niño also occurred in 2019-2020, contributing to 2020 becoming the world’s second-warmest year.

El Niño’s opposite, La Niña, involves cooler-than-usual Pacific currents flowing westward, absorbing heat out of the atmosphere, which cools the globe. The world just came out of three straight years of La Niña, meaning we’re experiencing an even greater temperature swing.

Comparing global temperatures (top chart) with El Niño and La Niña events. <a href=
Comparing global temperatures (top chart) with El Niño and La Niña events. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Based on increasing Pacific sea surface temperatures in mid-2023, climate modeling now suggests a 90% chance that Earth is headed toward its first strong El Niño since 2016.

Combined with the steady human-induced warming, Earth may soon again be breaking its annual temperature records. June 2023 was the hottest in modern record. July saw global records for the hottest days and a large number of regional records, including an incomprehensible heat index of 152 F (67 C) in Iran.

Solar fluctuations

The Sun may seem to shine at a constant rate, but it is a seething, churning ball of plasma whose radiating energy changes over many different time scales.

The Sun is slowly heating up and in half a billion years will boil away Earth’s oceans. On human time scales, however, the Sun’s energy output varies only slightly, about 1 part in 1,000, over a repeating 11-year cycle. The peaks of this cycle are too small for us to notice at a daily level, but they affect Earth’s climate systems.

Rapid convection within the Sun both generates a strong magnetic field aligned with its spin axis and causes this field to fully flip and reverse every 11 years. This is what causes the 11-year cycle in emitted solar radiation.

Sunspot activity is considered a proxy for the Sun’s energy output. The last 11-year solar cycle was unusually weak. The current cycle isn’t yet at its maximum. <a href=
Sunspot activity is considered a proxy for the Sun’s energy output. The last 11-year solar cycle was unusually weak. The current cycle isn’t yet at its maximum. NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterMore

Earth’s temperature increase during a solar maximum, compared with average solar output, is only about 0.09 F (0.05 C), roughly a third of a large El Niño. The opposite happens during a solar minimum. However, unlike the variable and unpredictable El Niño changes, the 11-year solar cycle is comparatively regular, consistent and predictable.

The last solar cycle hit its minimum in 2020, reducing the effect of the modest 2020 El Niño. The current solar cycle has already surpassed the peak of the relatively weak previous cycle (which was in 2014) and will peak in 2025, with the Sun’s energy output increasing until then.

A massive volcanic eruption

Volcanic eruptions can also significantly affect global climates. They usually do this by lowering global temperatures when erupted sulfate aerosols shield and block a portion of incoming sunlight – but not always.

In an unusual twist, the largest volcanic eruption of the 21st century so far, the 2022 eruption of Tonga’s Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, is having a warming and not cooling effect.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano’s eruption was enormous, but underwater. It hurled large amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. <a href=
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano’s eruption was enormous, but underwater. It hurled large amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens using GOES imagery courtesy of NOAA and NESDISMore

The eruption released an unusually small amount of cooling sulfate aerosols but an enormous amount of water vapor. The molten magma exploded underwater, vaporizing a huge volume of ocean water that erupted like a geyser high into the atmosphere.

Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, and the eruption may end up warming Earth’s surface by about 0.06 F (0.035 C), according to one estimate. Unlike the cooling sulfate aerosols, which are actually tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that fall out of the atmosphere within one to two years, water vapor is a gas that can stay in the atmosphere for many years. The warming impact of the Tonga volcano is expected to last for at least five years.

Underlying it all: Global warming

All of this comes on top of anthropogenic, or human-caused, global warming.

Humans have raised global average temperatures by about 2 F (1.1 C) since 1900 by releasing large volumes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is up 50%, primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels in vehicles and power plants. The warming from greenhouse gases is actually greater than 2 F (1.1 C), but it has been masked by other human factors that have a cooling effect, such as air pollution.

Sea surface temperatures in 2023 (bold black line) have been far above any temperature seen since satellite records began in the 1970s. <a href=
Sea surface temperatures in 2023 (bold black line) have been far above any temperature seen since satellite records began in the 1970s. University of Maine Climate Change InstituteCC BY-NDMore

If human impacts were the only factors, each successive year would set a new record as the hottest year ever, but that doesn’t happen. The year 2016 was the warmest in part because temperatures were boosted by the last large El Niño.

What does this mean for the future?

The next couple of years could be very rough.

If a strong El Niño develops over the coming months as forecasters expect, combined with the solar maximum and the effects of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, Earth’s temperatures will likely continue to soar.

As temperatures continue to increase, weather events can get more extreme. The excess heat can mean more heat wavesforest firesflash floods and other extreme weather events, climate models show.

A heavy downpour flooded streets across the New York City region, shutting down subways, schools and businesses on Sept. 29, 2023. <a href=
A heavy downpour flooded streets across the New York City region, shutting down subways, schools and businesses on Sept. 29, 2023. AP Photo/Jake OffenhartzMore

In January 2023, scientists wrote that Earth’s temperature had a greater than 50% chance of reaching 2.7 F (1.5 C) above preindustrial era temperatures by the year 2028, at least temporarily, increasing the risk of triggering climate tipping points with even greater human impacts. Because of the unfortunate timing of several parts of the climate system, it seems the odds are not in our favor.

This article, originally published July 27, 2023, has been updated with September’s record heat.

Read more:

Michael Wysession does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Treasury’s Yellen says US overdependent on China for critical supply chains

Reuters

Treasury’s Yellen says US overdependent on China for critical supply chains

Reuters – October 3, 2023

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday the United States has become overly dependent on China for critical supply chains, particularly in clean energy products and needs to broaden out sources of supply.

Yellen, speaking at a Fortune CEO event in Washington, repeated her longstanding view that the United States does not want to decouple economically from China.

She said that she has not been “a strong believer” in industrial policy, but that the United States had stood by for too long while other countries built up semiconductor industries with massive subsidies.

The U.S. would face national security concerns without a robust semiconductor sector of its own, she said, adding that last year’s Chips and Science Act will help reverse that trend.

“We’re fooling ourselves if we think that abandoning, for all practical purposes, semiconductor manufacturing, is a smart strategy for the United States,” Yellen said.

(Reporting by David Lawder and Kanishka Singh in Washington; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Deepa Babington)

We didn’t have a Pure Michigan summer. Pay attention to those climate warning signs.

Detroit Free Press – Opinion

We didn’t have a Pure Michigan summer. Pay attention to those climate warning signs.

Ali Abazeed – September 29, 2023

As summer draws to a close, it would be easy to forget the weather patterns and disruptions that took us about as far from a Pure Michigan summer as you can get. But we’re moving into an uncertain future, and we must pay attention to these warning signs.

Metro Detroit experienced unprecedented air quality alerts this summer, with over 23 days of air quality gauged unhealthy or worse, the first-ever air quality alert for the entire state, our own rash of fires due to unprecedented hot and dry conditions, and, thanks to Canadian wildfire smoke in early June, another air-quality alert first: a warning based on PM2.5, a form of fine particulate matter that wreaks havoc on the respiratory system.

Hospitals across the state reported increased admissions of patients suffering breathing problems due to poor air quality. For a region of the country that already ranks poorly in particle pollution, this summer’s alerts serve as a clarion call for action.

And it wasn’t just poor air quality. We’ve witnessed increases in extreme flooding, extreme heat, tornadoes and high winds, just this summer. If left unchecked, we are looking at scenarios that will lead to profound environmental degradation — and this for a state deemed a potential “climate haven” for its ability to weather the even more destructive effects of climate change.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires lingers in downtown Detroit skyline off of Woodward Avenue on Tuesday, June 27, 2023.
Beyond the ‘hottest summer ever’: How climate extremes impact us

Flooding and erosion will likely disrupt Michigan’s precious freshwater systems, and could contribute to harmful algal blooms that damage aquatic life and pose a risk to human health. Just last week, the Michigan Department of Natural Resources added two new invasive species to the state’s watch list, likely the result of alterations in habitat conditions due to climate change. These environmental flags have far-reaching consequences for the region, our state’s social fabric, and public health.

The consequences of climate extremes extend beyond just the environment and health. The stress and uncertainty generated by extreme weather events also corrode our built environment and social square.

Upheaval due to extreme weather is leading to significant changes in the fabric of society. Research shows that climate change is causing “social tipping points”: fast and fundamental changes in human values, behaviors, the nature of relationships, technologies and institutions that are just as intractable and hard to undo as climate change itself.

Lake Michigan shoreline in Ottawa County, Mich., is shown on Feb. 1, 2022. Despite its closeness to the lake, the county has areas where household and business wells are running short of water. That's because the aquifer beneath the county has dropped significantly in recent decades and it has no connection to the lake. Experts say Ottawa County is a cautionary tale for the state of Michigan, which is trying to leverage its water abundance to build a "blue economy" as climate change brings more drought and depleted aquifers to much of the U.S.

Constant worry about the next flood or extreme weather event takes a toll on interpersonal relationships, and has a deleterious effect on community bonds. Neighborhood squares, once the bedrock of local culture and interaction, face an existential crisis as people are forced to move, houses are abandoned and the pressures of climate change reshape communities. The ironclad law of climate change is this: Underserved communities and communities closest to the pain will always bear the brunt of displacement, insecurity and devastation due to extreme weather.

More from Freep opinion: I lead the Michigan AFL-CIO. Trump has never shown up for union workers. | Opinion

This is to say nothing of the already growing political tensions likely to rise due to extreme weather.

Research has repeatedly shown that more extreme weather contributes to many adverse outcomes, including violent crime, political instability and even the collapse of global regimes. Locally, we have diverging views on accepting the science of climate change, let alone addressing its disastrous effects. Politicizing what should be a shared concern for our state will make it harder to enact meaningful change.

Climate change is a public health crisis – and a social challenge

So, what can we do?

First, we must accept that extreme weather is not just an environmental issue, but a public health crisis and a social challenge. A public health approach centers on the health and well-being of communities near and far, but also emphasizes the importance of our built environment and its effect on our health. If our built environment is constantly reconfigured and disrupted by the ensuing floods, droughts, storms, or wildfires, the consequences on our health will continue to be disastrous.

We must adopt and enforce policies that limit emissions and promote sustainable practices now.

It’s important to expand our conception of community, and invest in regional efforts vital to increasing the resilience of communities, like long overdue investments in regional transit.

Downstream communities like Dearborn cannot solve flooding alone — we need cooperation and support from upstream communities to improve resiliency.

Though climate change is often globalized, seen as a concept far removed from our day-to-day, local actions can provide significant outcomes in the short term. For example, research shows that though most climate-related actions save money and provide benefits in the long run, the benefits of emission reductions for improved air quality provide immediate results regarding improved health outcomes, agricultural benefits, medical expenses and economic benefits.

Actions at the local level matter, and there are essential steps you can take now in your own community: Encourage investment in green infrastructure that makes our terrain more resilient to inevitable extreme weather, shift toward renewable energy sources, and educate yourself and others on climate adaptation. Ask your local government whether it has a sustainability plan. When new developments are proposed in your community, make sure those developments move us closer to a green future. Political leaders should incorporate public health concepts and terminology into their climate policies to engage communities that are facing the brunt of the devastation.

The summer of 2023 was a glaring preview of what’s at stake for Michigan’s future. Our health, communities and shared social bonds are on the line.

The time for more decisive action was yesterday.

Ali Abazeed is a Dearborn native, founding director of public health for the City of Dearborn, where is is currently the city’s chief public health officer, and is a faculty member at Wayne State University.

Can We Imagine Life Without Oil?

The Nation – Books & The Arts

Can We Imagine Life Without Oil?

Mobility, a novel by Lydia Kiesling, looks at the way fossil fuels defines life in public and private, shaping the very way we tell stories.

Jess Bergman – September 26, 2023 (October 2nd-9th, 2023 issue)

A businessman hitchhiking at a gas station in Oregon, 1973.(Photo by Smith Collection / Gado / Getty Images)

Elizabeth “Bunny” Glenn, the protagonist of Lydia Kiesling’s new novel Mobility, may work for the Turnbridge Oil Company, but that doesn’t mean she’s in oil. As she’s quick to remind anyone who asks, “I work for the non-oil part of it, the part that is moving away from oil; we are targeting batteries and energy storage, not oil.” And as she rationalizes to herself, all she does in her capacity as a marketer and administrator is “relay information, tell stories, shape narratives, soft things, things that didn’t really matter.”

Despite these disavowals, the fact is that Bunny has spent years trying to better understand the oil industry. It turns out to be a Sisyphean task: The basic schema of the industry—where many companies are vertically and horizontally integrated, mergers are a constant, and financialization has spawned its own sprawling sub-industry—intentionally obscures the full picture. The oil landscape is a quicksand of “names and names and names.” Every time Bunny learned a new one, “the map she had constructed in her mind shifted.” Meanwhile, her brother John, a do-gooder Peace Corps veteran who teaches English in Ukraine, teases Bunny that she’ll wind up like their uncle Warren, a garden-variety reactionary with a desk job at Motiva that earns him “a seemingly huge amount of money.”

More than halfway through the novel, John’s partner, Sofie—a Swedish journalist who covers fossil fuels—provides Bunny with a term that describes the oil industry’s elusiveness: “hyperobject.” Coined by the philosopher Timothy Morton in 2010, a hyperobject is something so large and complex, so distributed across both space and time, that it evades our comprehensive understanding, even as we cannot escape its presence in our life. “The more data we have about hyperobjects, the less we know about them—the more we realize we can never truly know them,” Morton argues. Oil is a hyperobject par excellence: Not only is it the result of a geologic process that is millions of years old, but there are reserves of crude oil all over the world, and its byproducts are found in innumerable consumer items: artificial limbs and toilet seats, lipstick and trash bags, refrigerators and contact lenses. As Bunny herself puts it, “It does touch everything. Absolutely everything.”

Even before Bunny started working at Turnbridge, her life had been touched by oil more directly than others’. As a Foreign Service brat in Azerbaijan in the late 1990s, her adolescence unfolded alongside the development of a new international order, and commodities like oil played a starring role in this transition. Four years before her family’s arrival in Baku, and three years after the country restored its independence from the Soviet Union, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic and a consortium of 11 foreign oil companies signed what was called the “contract of the century”: an agreement to jointly develop—and share the profits from—oil fields in the Azeri sectors of the Caspian Sea. Several of those foreign companies, of course, were American. Bunny’s father is sent to Azerbaijan in part to protect his country’s investment.

In Baku, some of the consequences of the newly privatized oil economy are obvious even to a self-absorbed 15-year-old like Bunny: a sulfuric smell on the beach, or the “mansions with no context” piled up on cliffsides outside of the capital. But most of what she learns about the industry comes via a more sentimental education—namely, crushes on the young men who have flocked to Azerbaijan to witness the so-called end of history. There is Eddie, a mild-mannered Brit making a documentary about the Nagorno-Karabakh War, who rents a room in the apartment above the Glenns’; and then there is Charlie, a hedonistic, hirsute American who publishes a guerrilla newspaper called The Intercock (short for Inter-Caucasian Times) covering “foreign activity in the former Soviet Union.”

At one point, while attending a party at an oil prospector’s mansion in Baku’s ancient inner city, Bunny bumps into her crushes smoking cigars with a gray-haired Amoco bureaucrat. After frightening the oilman off with a veiled reference to his taste for sex workers, Charlie turns to Bunny. “Do you want to hear the story of oil in the former Soviet Union?” he asks. Following her noncommital “I guess,” Charlie proceeds to unspool a profane monologue about the scramble for the Caspian’s riches amid the breakup of the USSR, featuring cameos by Mikhail Gorbachev, Ilham Aliyev, “Condoleezza fucking Rice,” BP, Chevron, Exxon, and more.

This speech, which unfolds across four pages, is for Bunny’s benefit, but also our own. By embedding crucial context in naturalistic dialogue, Kiesling is able to establish the historical conjuncture in which her book is set without resorting to dull exposition. But this formal choice is more than just a canny bit of craft; it also hints at the novel’s true subject. Recognizing the epistemological impasse that Bunny runs up against in her quest to master the industry’s inner workings, Mobility is not really about oil qua oil, but the way it is narrativized—both for good and for ill.

Mobility teems with storytellers, from investigative reporters, podcasters, and filmmakers to spin doctors, government public information officers, and oil CEOs, dictating their memoirs to underpaid female assistants. When Bunny eventually joins their ranks, it’s due less to any conscious choice than to circumstance. Personally and professionally adrift after graduating from college in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, she moves in with her recently divorced mother in Texas and finds a job through a temp agency at Miles Engineering Consultants, a firm that provides “client satisfaction in the diverse fields of geophysics and seismology, hydrology, hydrogeology, and construction support.” Bunny is assigned to the admin pool, where she puts her English degree to work copy-editing inscrutable reports about prospective megaprojects, such as a nuclear power plant in the Persian Gulf. However tedious, it’s a task at which she excels.

Not long after Bunny is hired, she meets Frank Miles—son of the company’s founder, and son-in-law to oil magnate Frank Turnbridge—who recognizes in Bunny a potential asset to his own ambition. Before long, Frank convinces her to jump ship to Turnbridge, where he’ll be heading up a new arm of the business: one that “over time,” he promises, will begin investing in “renewables, batteries, clean energy.” As she’ll learn, it’s a future that’s always just on the verge of arriving.

Whatever “unease” Bunny feels as a reflexive liberal who believes in global warming but who is now working for an oil company is allayed in short order by the material comforts that the job enables her to obtain: a well-appointed apartment in Houston, Ted Baker dresses, Bare Minerals makeup, Jo Malone perfume (the novel is littered with brand names that increase in value in tandem with Bunny’s professional advancement). It’s a state of affairs that Sofie mocks during a visit to Texas: “I’m sorry, but this is such an American tragedy! You work for the oil complex so you can have health insurance and a place to live!” However much Bunny clings to these justifications, the truth is that she starts to find something magnetic about the industry after immersing herself in its literature.

While attempting to better understand her new workplace, Bunny spends many Saturdays at the Turnbridge Petroleum Library, donated by Frank to a local college, where she reads introductory textbooks (“useful but boring”) as well as “narrative histories, which she infinitely preferred.” The latter are seductive in both the cinematic quality of their imagery and in the sheer enormity of the feats of engineering and labor they describe—so monumental that they reduce the “dead people and filth strewn all over the pages of these books” to mere footnotes. “These tragedies were made small against the inexorability of a steel tube drilling down thousands of feet, drilling sideways a thousand feet more, seeming to subvert the laws of geology or physics,” Bunny thinks. “Literal pipelines laid under the ground and spanning two continents, traveling under the ocean itself, to bring them their standard of living.”

Her encounter with these texts is formative in more ways than one: Bunny will eventually stake her career on building a Lean In version of this emphatically masculine mythos. In 2016, she attends a women-in-energy luncheon in a frigid Texas conference room where the keynote speaker is “one of the first Black women special agents in the FBI.” Bunny, then unmarried and childless, is seated with a number of colleagues discussing the challenges of being a working mother in the oil industry. A geologist with twins who’s recently been let go from Exxon jokes—if you can call it that—that “they always lay the moms off first.” Then one of the only men present at the lunch drops by their table. “What are we talking about here?” he asks. “Shoes?” A less keen novel might leverage this interaction into an epiphany for Bunny, but Kiesling is working in an ultimately ironic register here. At the end of the scene, Bunny lifts a foot out of her “Tory Burch square-heeled croc pumps that didn’t have quite enough room in the toe box…before turning her attention back to the podium.” She, at least, had been thinking about shoes after all.

Over the course of Mobility, Kiesling develops a critique of the fossil fuel industry’s use of women as both a shield and a source of legitimacy. This applies to women on the outside: A recurring motif is the line, supplied by industry flacks like Bunny, that it’s thanks to oil and gas that mothers can give birth in brightly lit, temperature-regulated hospitals, full of high-tech devices made from petrochemical byproducts, rather than in unsanitary sheds, the United States’ high rate of maternal mortality be damned. But it’s women working on the inside who prove to be most useful to the industry. Of course, the benefits flow both ways: On the one hand, the industry’s embrace of corporate feminism allows individual women to recast their environmentally destructive and highly remunerative work as a radical riposte to the old boys’ club. More significantly, this PR strategy plays into the narrative that a lack of diversity, not a profit motive antithetical to life, is responsible for oil’s gravest ills. In this way, reforming the energy industry’s relationship to women and other minorities becomes a metonym for reforming the industry itself. At yet another conference, Bunny listens to a chipper blonde introduce a new professional network for women backed by companies like Shell and Halliburton. Her ambitions for the project are grand: It’s “something that will benefit not only us, but our entire oil and gas industry.” Notably, the woman is a special guest at an event titled “Storytelling Oil and Gas.”

By focusing primarily on the recent past and covering mostly real disasters, natural and otherwise—the Deepwater Horizon spill; Hurricane Harvey—Mobility sets itself apart from most so-called climate change novels, which tend to take place in an alternative present or near future menaced by mysterious adverse weather events. So when the book flashes forward to 2051 in a brief coda knowingly titled “Downstream”—referring to the refining of crude oil and all of its byproducts, as well as their marketing and sale—it comes as a somewhat deflating capitulation to the conventions of the genre. Kiesling depicts this future bluntly; its crises are represented in broad strokes, with minimal stylistic flourishes: “On the first 120-degree-Fahrenheit day [Bunny] ever felt, nearly everything shriveled and died and the crows fell out of the trees.”

Given the destructiveness of Mobility’s final act, it’s tempting to read it as an environmentalist parable, or even an intervention. But the novel is fundamentally ambivalent about the usefulness of stories in fighting climate change. Through Bunny’s occasional insecurities about the meaning of her work for Turnbridge, Kiesling breaks the fourth wall. “Sometimes Elizabeth marveled at how simultaneously irrelevant and critical the shaping of narrative was to reality,” she writes.

Decarbonization was more important than ever. The majors were pulling out of the Permian and Bakken right and left…. And yet Europe was preparing to freeze without Russian gas. The EU had signed a deal to double its supply of LNG from Azerbaijan, great news for Azerbaijan and BP.

In Mobility, the primary function of the stories told by fossil fuel companies is to approximate the feeling of change without actually changing anything—except, perhaps, their names.

For the industry, this proves to be a winning strategy: “Many of the people who got rich from oil put themselves directly atop the next generation of energy just in the nick of time.” For its opponents, the value of narrative is less clear. We learn little about the impact of Sofie’s journalism, other than that her career goes “gangbusters” after she becomes a household name during the Standing Rock protests. And when Bunny bumps into Charlie many years after their initial meeting in Baku, he’s traded in harassing fossil fuel executives for reporting on drone war, because, he explains, “There’s more people with a deep state paranoia who will subscribe to your podcast than there are people who want to hear about oil companies.” Stories, Kiesling suggests, can make us feel better about the path of least resistance, or they can prompt us to consider the cost of our familiar comforts. But given that they tend toward tidy resolution, stories are more likely to produce inertia than action on a mass scale. This makes them no match for the resources of an industry that scaffolds our geopolitical order and produces trillions of dollars in profits a year.

Rather than styling itself as a rallying cry, the closest thing that Mobility offers to a concrete solution is smuggled into a joke in a scene some years before the apocalyptic flash-forward. During a visit to the United States in 2014 from his posting in Tajikistan, Bunny’s diplomat father tells his grown children that the long-defunct oil field their grandparents owned a small interest in might soon become active again, thanks to a tertiary form of oil recovery in which pressurized carbon dioxide is blasted into old wells to loosen whatever remains. Any money it yields, he says, will be passed on to them. Bunny’s brother John is horrified by the prospect of profiting from oil. “Can you do something to shut down production?” he asks.

Bunny laughs. “He owns one-seventy-somethingth of it,” she tells her brother. “Is he supposed to throw a grenade down the well?

Jess Bergman is a senior editor at The Baffler and a contributing writer at Jewish Currents.