Russian landing ship Tsezar Kunikov hit in Black Sea, it has sunk – intelligence sources, photo, video
Ukrainska Pravda – February 14, 2024
Landing ship Tsezar Kunikov. Photo: website of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
Drones of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) have struck the Russian landing ship Tsezar Kunikov in the Black Sea on the morning of 14 February.
Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in DIU
For reference: According to the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s website, the Tsezar Kunikov is a Project 775 large landing ship. The vessel is 112.5 metres long, 15 metres wide and has a draft of 3.7 metres. The warship has the following weapons: 2×2 57-mm AK-725 artillery pieces, 4×8 launchers of man-portable air defence systems, and 2×30 122-mm A-215 Grad-M multiple rocket launchers.
There are 87 crew members.
The ship can reportedly be used to set up minefields. The landing ship can be used with various loading options: 150 troops and 10 T-55 tanks with a crew of 40; 12 PT-76 amphibious swimming tanks with a crew of 36; a unit consisting of 3 T-55 tanks with a crew of 12, 3 120-mm mortars, 3 2G 27 combat vehicles, 4 ZIL-130 vehicles, 4 GAZ-66 vehicles and one GAZ-69 off-road vehicle.
The landing party consists of 147 troops. The ship is capable of carrying 650 tonnes of cargo over a distance of 4,700 miles.
According to Wikipedia, Tsezar Lvovich Kunikov, a Soviet officer and commander of a landing unit, after whom the warship in question was named, died on 14 February 1943 and was buried in Gelendzhik, where Russian President Vladimir Putin has a bunker.
Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that its air defence forces had supposedly shot down six drones in the Black Sea on the night of 13-14 February.
At the same time, Telegram channels reported that something was burning in the sea near Alupka-Katsiveli. Two Mi-8 helicopters were also reportedly circling low over the water in the area.
The Krymsky Veter (Crimean Wind) Telegram channel reported that drones had supposedly struck a landing ship.
Later, a Ka-27 search and rescue helicopter was also spotted in the area of the settlement of Foros (Russian-occupied Crimea).
Senate passes $95.3 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan after rare all-night session
Mary Clare Jalonick and Stephen Groves, AP – February 13, 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate early Tuesday passed a $95.3 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, pushing ahead after months of difficult negotiations and amid growing political divisions in the Republican Party over the role of the United States abroad.
The vote came after a small group of Republicans opposed to the $60 billion for Ukraine held the Senate floor through the night, using the final hours of debate to argue that the U.S. should focus on its own problems before sending more money overseas. But more than a dozen Republicans voted with almost all Democrats to pass the package 70-29, with supporters arguing that abandoning Ukraine could embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin and threaten national security across the globe.
“It’s been years, perhaps decades, since the Senate has passed a bill that so greatly impacts not just our national security, not just the security of our allies, but also the security of western democracy,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who worked closely with Republican Leader Mitch McConnell on the legislation.
The bill’s passage through the Senate was a welcome sign for Ukraine amid critical shortages on the battlefield. The final vote gained 22 Republicans supporting its passage, while two Democrats, Sens. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Peter Welch of Vermont, as well as Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent, voted against it. Progressive lawmakers have objected to sending offensive weaponry to Israel.
Yet the package faces a deeply uncertain future in the House, where hardline Republicans aligned with former President Donald Trump — the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, and a critic of support for Ukraine — oppose the legislation.
Speaker Mike Johnson cast new doubt on the package in a statement Monday evening, making clear that it could be weeks or months before Congress sends the legislation to President Joe Biden’s desk — if at all.
Still, the vote was a win for both Senate leaders. Schumer noted the strong bipartisan support and projected that if the House speaker brings it forward it would have the same strong support in that chamber. McConnell has made Ukraine his top priority in recent months, and was resolute in the face of considerable pushback from his own GOP conference.
Speaking directly to his detractors in a floor speech on Sunday, McConnell said that “the eyes of the world” were on the U.S. Senate.
“Will we give those who wish us harm more reason to question our resolve, or will we recommit to exercising American strength?” McConnell asked.
Dollars provided by the legislation would purchase U.S.-made defense equipment, including munitions and air defense systems that authorities say are desperately needed as Russia batters the country. It also includes $8 billion for the government in Kyiv and other assistance.
In addition, the legislation would provide $14 billion for Israel’s war with Hamas, $8 billion for Taiwan and partners in the Indo-Pacific to counter China, and $9.2 billion in humanitarian assistance for Gaza.
The bill’s passage followed almost five months of torturous negotiations over an expansive bill that would have paired the foreign aid with an overhaul of border and asylum policies. Republicans demanded the trade-off, saying the surge of migration into the United States had to be addressed alongside the security of allies.
But a bipartisan deal on border security struck by Republican Sen. James Lankford fell apart just days after its unveiling, a head-spinning development that left negotiators deeply frustrated. Republicans declared the bill insufficient and blocked it on the Senate floor.
After the border bill collapsed, the two leaders abandoned the border provisions and pushed forward with passing the foreign aid package alone — as Democrats had originally intended.
While the slimmed-down foreign aid bill eventually won enough Republican support to pass, several GOP senators who had previously expressed support for Ukraine voted against it. The episode further exposed divisions in the party, made more public as Trump dug in and a handful of lawmakers openly called for McConnell to step down.
Sen. J.D. Vance, an Ohio Republican, argued that the U.S. should step back from the conflict and help broker an end to it with Russia’s Putin. He questioned the wisdom of continuing to fuel Ukraine’s defense when Putin appears committed to fighting for years.
“I think it deals with the reality that we’re living in, which is they’re a more powerful country, and it’s their region of the world,” he said.
Vance, along with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and other opponents, spent several hours on the floor railing against the aid and complaining about Senate process. They dug in their heels to delay a final vote, speaking on the floor until daybreak.
Supporters of the aid pushed back, warning that bowing to Russia would be a historic mistake with devastating consequences. In an unusually raw back-and-forth, GOP senators who support the aid challenged some of the opponents directly on the floor.
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis angrily rebutted some of their arguments, noting that the money would only help Ukraine for less than a year and that much of it would go to replenishing U.S. military stocks.
“Why am I so focused on this vote?” Tillis said. “Because I don’t want to be on the pages of history that we will regret if we walk away. You will see the alliance that is supporting Ukraine crumble. You will ultimately see China become emboldened. And I am not going to be on that page of history.”
Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., became emotional as he talked about the drudgery of the Senate and spending time away from his family to get little done. “But every so often there are issues that come before us that seem to be the ones that explain why we are here,” he said, his voice cracking.
Moran conceded that the cost of the package was heavy for him, but pointed out that if Putin were to attack a NATO member in Europe, the U.S. would be bound by treaty to become directly involved in the conflict — a commitment that Trump has called into question as he seeks another term in the White House.
At a rally Saturday, Trump said that he had once told a NATO ally he would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to members that are “delinquent” in their financial and military commitments to the alliance. The former president has led his party away from the foreign policy doctrines of aggressive American involvement overseas and toward an “America First” isolationism.
Evoking the slogan, Moran said, “I believe in America first, but unfortunately America first means we have to engage in the world.”
While the vast majority of House Republicans have opposed the aid and are unlikely to cross Trump, a handful of GOP lawmakers have signaled they will push to get it passed.
House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner, R-Ohio, traveled to Ukraine last week with a bipartisan delegation and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Turner posted on X, formerly Twitter, after the trip that “I reiterated America’s commitment to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia.”
But Speaker Johnson is in a tough position. A majority of his conference opposes the aid, and he is trying to lead the narrowest of majorities and avoid the fate of his predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted in October.
Johnson, R-La., said in a statement Monday that because the foreign aid package lacks border security provisions, it is “silent on the most pressing issue facing our country.” It was the latest — and potentially most consequential — sign of opposition to the Ukraine aid from House GOP leadership, who had rejected the bipartisan border plan as a “non-starter,” contributing to its rapid demise.
“Now, in the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson said. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.”
Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Virginia Democrat, traveled to Kyiv last week with Turner and other House members. She said the trip underscored to her how Ukraine is still in a fight for its very existence.
As the group traveled through Kyiv in armored vehicles, she said, they witnessed signs of an active war, from sandbagged shelters to burned-out cars and memorials to those killed. During the meeting with Zelenskyy, she said the U.S. lawmakers tried to offer assurances that the American people still stand with his country.
“He was clear that our continued support is critical to their ability to win the war,” Spanberger said. “It’s critical to their own freedom. And importantly, it’s critical to U.S. national security interests.”
Utah senators split on passed $95 billion defense spending bill
Derick Fox – February 13, 2024
SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) — Early Tuesday morning, the U.S. Senate voted to pass a $95 billion emergency defense spending bill, which has left Utah’s senate delegation split.
Lee, alongside Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), led the opposition to the bill, saying he had done everything he possibly could do to stop it.
“This didn’t have to happen. It is unfortunate we had Senate Republicans turn on the commitment they made to each other and to their voters and to our Republican colleagues down the hall,” said Lee.
During his speech on the Senate floor, Lee said the bill in its current form only serves to empower drug cartels and dissolve the U.S. southern border – a point of contention between the Biden Administration and GOP officials across the country. Lee said the bill, instead, spends an “insane amount” of money on foreign countries without properly addressing the U.S. southern border.
Romney, however, countered by warning of the “dire consequences” that would come by not continuing support for Ukraine. He claimed that by not helping Ukraine defend itself, the door would open for Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade NATO and allow China to spread fear to Taiwan that the U.S. will not help its allies.
He further said America would “cease to be the arsenal of democracy” and a global leader.
“What sending weapons to Ukraine does do is help discourage further Russian and Chinese invasions which could draw us in, it helps preserve NATO, it allows America to remain the leader of the free world, and it shows that we honor our word to our friends and allies,” said Romney.
Romney further criticized some of his Republican colleagues by saying if their position is cheered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is “time to reconsider your position.”
Twenty-one Republican senators joined Romney in voting to pass the bill while two Democrats voted against it, citing deep concerns for supporting Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign in Gaza, per The Hill. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) also voted no for the same reason.
Sen. Mitt Romney issues dire warnings if the U.S. doesn’t continue to help Ukraine
Suzanne Bates – February 12, 2024
Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, arrives as the Senate prepares a procedural vote on an emergency spending package that would provide military aid to Ukraine and Israel, replenish U.S. weapons systems and provide food, water and other humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, at the Capitol in Washington, Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024. | J. Scott Applewhite, Associated Press
Utah Sen. Mitt Romney took to the Senate floor Monday night and urged his colleagues to continue to support Ukraine in its war against Russia, saying that if they don’t the United States “will cease to be the leader of the free world.”
During his remarks, which lasted only five minutes, Romney issued several dire warnings over what he believes would be the consequences of lawmakers deciding not to send additional funds to Ukraine.
“If we fail to help Ukraine, America will cease to be the arsenal of democracy. It will cease to be the leader of the free world,” he said.
The Senate is debating a $95.3 billion foreign aid package that includes roughly $60 billion for Ukraine, $14.1 billion for Israel, and $9.5 billion in humanitarian assistance.
During his remarks, Romney said the vote to “provide military weapons for Ukraine is the most important vote we will ever take as United States senators.”
“We are not being asked to send American troops into war,” he continued, “only to help the Ukrainians defend themselves.”
Romney said he believes if the U.S. does not send aid to Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin will “invade a NATO nation.” He said it would also signal to China the U.S. will not live up to its promises to help Taiwan, and that it would lead to the disintegration of NATO.
“If we fail to help Ukraine, we will be known not as our fathers and mothers were — the greatest generation — but as the worst generation,” he said.
Romney challenged each of the reasons other lawmakers have cited for why the U.S. should not support Ukraine, including concerns over high deficits and depleting America’s military arsenal.
“I know that the shock jocks and online instigators have effectively riled up many in the far reaches of my party. But if your position is being cheered by Vladimir Putin, it’s time to reconsider your position,” he said.
The Senate voted 66-33 Monday night to advance the bill toward a final vote.
Meanwhile, several Republican senators, including Utah Se. Mike Lee, have rejected sending additional funds to Ukraine and have also said Congress should focus on securing America’s border.
An earlier foreign aid bill that included funds for border security failed to achieve enough Republican support to pass the Senate over complaints the bill would not actually shore up the border.
House Speaker Mike Johnson released a statement Monday night casting doubt the House would vote on the foreign aid package, saying that “any so-called national security supplemental legislation must recognize that national security begins at our own border.”
Russia’s economic decline is in only in the early stages, and the country is masking significant ‘degradation,’ think tank says
JenniferSor – February 13, 2024
Russia’s economic decline is still in the early stages, according to a London-based think tank.
Talk of Russia’s resilience ignores deep-seated issues in Moscow’s finances.
The nation is losing a huge amount of human capital as war in Ukraine drags on.
Russia’s economy has significantly more degradation ahead of it, according to the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.
The London-based think tank pointed to comments from some economists, who say Russia’s finances are holding up amid its grinding war in Ukraine and sanctions from Western countries. Economists and experts note that Russia has proved to be seemingly resilient so far, with the International Monetary Fund recently raising its growth target for the nation to 2.6% from 1.1 this year.
But talk of Russia’s economic resilience is misguided, and there are deep-rooted issues that will continue to plague its economy, the think tank said.
“Russia is masking a process of significant economic degradation that will continue well into the future and further marginalise its global footprint,” Mark Sobel, the US Chair of the OMFIF said in a note on Monday.
Russia’s robust military spending has been a key factor in propping up its economic growth so far. But a deeper look into the Kremlin’s finances shows a far bleaker picture: Russia’s global share of world purchasing power has fallen to under 2%, down from around 4% before the 2008 financial crisis, Sobel said.
Meanwhile, there’s evidence that Russia’s energy revenues – a key source of income – are plummeting. Urals crude, Russia’s flagship oil product, is now trading at a significant discount to the global benchmark. Russian oil traded around $68 a barrel on Tuesday, while Brent traded around $83 a barrel, according to data from Oilprice.com.
Countries also appear less willing to buy Russian crude since the West has resolved to enforce its trade restrictions on Russia. Over half of sanctioned Russian oil tankers are now idling at sea, Bloomberg reported this week.
That’s complicated by a swarm of other problems Russia’s economy is facing, such as roaring inflation, a weak ruble, and a record shortage of workers, which economists have warned will hinder future growth and productivity.
The country, for instance, is losing a huge amount of human capital as casualties mount on the battlefield, while younger educated Russians have fled the country, Sobel said.
“Inflation is elevated and the central bank is maintaining high interest rates in light of the outlook for prices. That will erode real incomes and crimp investment,” he added.
Over 1,000 companies have publicly said they’re withdrawing or scaling back operations in Russia, according to a list compiled by the Yale School of Management. Companies that have exited Moscow are unlikely to return anytime soon, Sobel added.
“A cursory examination of current Russian data — such as growth and inflation – might suggest the economy is ‘resilient’ in the face of the costs of Russia continuing its ruthless invasion. That view may contain elements of validity in the short term. But even that overlooks weaknesses and realities,” Sobel warned. “Significantly greater isolation and economic degradation is baked into the cake for the Russian economy and people.”
But people in Russia already appear to be feeling the pain of Moscow’s ailing finances. Heating systems are now breaking down in parts of Russia, partly due to Moscow’s immense military budget that’s been unable to update Soviet-era infrastructure. Russian inflation grew 7.2% year-per-year in January, well above the nation’s 4% inflation target.
Elon Musk opposes aid to Ukraine, says Putin can’t lose – Bloomberg
Ukrainska Pravda – February 13, 2024
Elon Musk. Photo: Getty Images
Elon Musk believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot lose in the war. He has also opposed the approval of assistance to Ukraine.
Source: Elon Musk to US Republican senators during a discussion on X Spaces; Bloomberg
The discussion was joined by opponents of the draft law on further assistance to Ukraine to combat the full-scale Russian invasion.
Elon Musk said that “there is no way in hell” Vladimir Putin could lose the war in Ukraine. He said this in response to the words of one of the speakers, who said that people who expect victory in Ukraine are “living in a fantasy world”.
Commenting on the assistance to Ukraine from the United States, the billionaire said that it is ineffective.
“This spending does not help Ukraine. Prolonging the war does not help Ukraine,” Elon Musk said about the bill which provides further assistance to Ukraine.
Elon Musk also drew attention to the fact that he is often accused of defending the Russian president. However, in his opinion, this accusation is “absurd”. In this context, the billionaire added that his companies “have probably done more to undermine Russia than anything”. This, of course, is not true because, in addition to activating the Starlink satellite and transferring a limited number of terminals at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the contribution of Musk’s companies to the “undermining” of Russia is minimal. After all, neither Tesla, with its electric vehicles, nor SpaceX, did not cause problems for the Russian raw material economy.
The billionaire also believes that Vladimir Putin is being pressured to bring the war to an end because “if he were to back off, he would be assassinated”.
The businessman noted that his interest is to stop the death of people on both sides. However, he expressed doubt that seeking to remove Vladimir Putin is a wise decision.
“For those who want regime change in Russia, they should think about who is the person that could take out Putin, and is that person likely to be a peacenik? Probably not,” Elon Musk said.
In his opinion, such a person will likely be “even more hardcore than Putin”.
Background: Last year, a scandal broke out due to Elon Musk’s unilateral decision to not activate Starlink near Crimea. The incident occurred in 2022 and became known from an excerpt out of a biographical book about the billionaire.
Chief justice gives Jack Smith one week to respond to Trump’s bid to stave off trial
Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney – February 13, 2024
Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP
Chief Justice John Roberts is giving prosecutors a week to respond to former President Donald Trump’s request to keep his federal criminal election-subversion trial on hold while he tries to persuade the Supreme Court to scuttle it entirely on the grounds of presidential immunity.
A brief docket entry from the court Tuesday morning said special counsel Jack Smith has until next Tuesday at 4 p.m. to address the emergency application Trump’s lawyers filed at the high court Monday.
Last week, a three-judge panel of a federal appeals court in Washington unanimously rejected Trump’s sweeping immunity claim. However, the judges agreed not to return the case to a lower court for trial until the Supreme Court acts on Trump’s request for emergency relief.
Smith has already urged the courts to resolve the immunity dispute quickly so that Trump’s Washington, D.C. trial, originally set for March 4, can begin later this year.
In December, the special counsel asked the Supreme Court to take up the immunity issue even before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals reviewed it, in order to reach an expedited conclusion, but the justices denied the attempt.
“This Court’s immediate review of that question is the only way to achieve its timely and definitive resolution,” Smith wrote in the December filing. “The Nation has a compelling interest in a decision on [Trump’s] claim of immunity from these charges — and if they are to be tried, a resolution by conviction or acquittal, without undue delay.”
Smith is expected to oppose Trump’s request to keep the proceedings in the trial court on hold while Trump pursues further relief from both the Supreme Court and the full, 11-judge bench of the D.C. Circuit. He is hoping those courts rule that former presidents are immune from prosecution on conduct arguably related to the presidency unless they have been impeached and convicted by Congress.
Smith does not have to wait until next Tuesday to respond to Trump’s latest high court filing, which was widely anticipated and largely repeats arguments his attorneys have raised previously.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report misstated the time of day when the special counsel’s response is due.
‘Dropping dead like flies’ – harsh realities for Russia’s conscripted soldiers unveiled in intercepted phone calls
The New Voice of Ukraine – February 13, 2024
Destroyed Russian equipment near Avdiivka
Intercepted conversations, published on Ukrainian Intelligence You-tube channel on Feb. 12, have disclosed significant casualties among Russian forces mobilized for the conflict in Ukraine. These revelations paint a grim picture of the conditions faced by Russian soldiers, many of whom reportedly die before even reaching the Ukrainian border.
Russian mobilized soldiers die before they even reach Ukraine. “People are dropping flies before even reaching Ukraine,” the girlfriend of one of the Russian soldiers said in one intercepted call.
The woman recounted a particularly disturbing incident where a soldier died during training, highlighting the dangers faced by recruits. “The main thing is not Ukraine,” she said. “They brought us [to our settlement] a dead man. He did not even reach Ukraine. He was killed during the training.”
The discussion further unveiled shocking instances of violence and abuse within the ranks, including hangings and assault. “There is a f…load of such cases,” she added. “Someone was hanged, a man was raped.” Similar incidents underscore the desperate measures the Russian military has resorted to, including the conscription of prisoners to bolster their numbers.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are effectively neutralizing Russian troops at a rate comparable to Russia’s recruitment efforts, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Dec. 8, 2023.
The Russian offensive has resulted in over 54,000 soldier fatalities within approximately two months, with the Kremlin sacrificing about 400 soldiers for every square kilometer gained in Ukraine, Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, said on Jan. 23.
British intelligence has assessed that, given the substantial losses suffered, it could take Russia five to ten years to reconstitute its military units to their former levels of training and experience. This ongoing attrition highlights the severe impact of the conflict on Russian military capabilities and raises questions about the sustainability of their offensive efforts in Ukraine.
CNN host threatens to cut off interview with Texas Republican
Tara Suter – February 13, 2024
CNN host Brianna Keilar threatened to cut off an interview with Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) Thursday after the representative interrupted her multiple times.
Keilar was interviewing Van Duyne on “CNN News Central” and questioning her about a Senate bill with Israel and Ukraine aid. Keilar noted that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) has criticized the bill for not including border security provisions.
Van Duyne then brought up Republicans’ border security bill, House Resolution 2, and said it would get rid of “catch and release,” or the humanitarian parole of migrants. She also spoke about her time as mayor of Irving, Texas and the partnership she had with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) while in that role.
“Let me stop and ask you about this, a couple things,” Keilar stated. “First off, illegal immigrants’ criminal conviction rate is 45 percent below that of native-born Americans in your state, just to be clear.
“When you raise the specter of, ‘They create so many crimes, they’re convicted,’” Keilar said. “I mean, when it comes to violent crimes, property crimes, homicides, sex crimes, you’ve talked in the past about rapes, the numbers just don’t support that. But let’s focus on ‘catch and release.’”
Van Duyne then began to interrupt Keilar, causing the two women to talk over each other. Keilar then attempted to bring up the topic of “catch and release” again, noting that when examining the practice, “you have to look at what’s causing it, and it’s a judicial backlog.” She also pointed to the recently failed bipartisan foreign aid and border deal, which would have clamped down on the practice of humanitarian parole.
“[A]ctually, it wouldn’t have,” Van Duyne cut in and began interrupting Keilar again, repeatedly disagreeing with her.
The two began to talk over each other again, leading to Keilar stating that if Van Duyne wouldn’t let her speak, she would “cut the interview off.”
“And I will let you speak and finish sentences,” Keilar said.
Russia refits old tanks after losing 3,000 in Ukraine – research centre
Mark Trevelyan and Greg Torode – February 13, 2024
Ukrainian servicemen walk near destroyed Russian tanks in the town of Izium
LONDON (Reuters) -Russia has lost more than 3,000 tanks in Ukraine – the equivalent of its entire pre-war active inventory – but has enough lower-quality armoured vehicles in storage for years of replacements, a leading research centre said on Tuesday.
Ukraine has also suffered heavy loses since Russia invaded in February 2022, but Western military replenishments have allowed it to maintain inventories while upgrading quality, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.
Even after the loss of so many tanks – including an estimated 1,120 in the past year – Russia still has about twice as many available for combat as Ukraine, according to the IISS’s annual Military Balance, a key research tool for defence analysts.
Henry Boyd, the institute’s senior fellow for military capability, said Russia had been roughly “breaking even” in terms of replacements. He estimated that it had put around 1,000 to 1,500 more tanks into service in the past year.
But of these, he said, 200 at most were newly built, and the large majority were refurbished older models.
“Moscow has been able to trade quality for quantity… by pulling thousands of older tanks out of storage at a rate that may, at times, have reached 90 tanks per month,” said the report.
Russia’s stored inventories meant Moscow “could potentially sustain around three more years of heavy losses and replenish tanks from stocks, even if at lower-technical standard, irrespective of its ability to produce new equipment”.
Russia’s defence ministry declined to comment.
TOUGH CHOICES FOR UKRAINE AND WEST
Nearly two years into the conflict, Ukraine and its Western partners face very difficult choices, the report said.
IISS senior land warfare analyst Ben Barry said Ukraine had tried to shield some of its younger troops – the average age of its infantry soldiers is reported to be in the early 40s – but may struggle to continue to do so.
“They have deliberately protected their youth, but the extent to which they can do that in future is doubtful if they are going to sustain their frontline strength,” he said.
Ukraine, which failed to make progress in a counter-offensive last year and has just replaced its popular commander Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, is also in urgent need of new artillery supplies and air defence systems, while awaiting a major new U.S. aid package that has been held up by Republican opposition.
“Western governments find themselves once again in a position where they must decide whether to furnish Kyiv with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow, rather than merely enough not to lose,” IISS Director-General Bastian Giegerich said.
Russia, for its part, has placed its economy on a war footing and moved defence factories to round-the-clock production in three shifts.
“It’s an astounding figure,” said Singapore-based defence analyst Alexander Neill, referring to the estimate of 3,000 tanks lost.
“Some of those could have been older tanks, so one of the big questions is how many of its most advanced tanks does it have left for any major future offensives,” added Neill, an adjunct fellow at Hawaii’s Pacific Forum think-tank.
Given the losses sustained by both sides and the attritional character of the trench warfare, IISS experts said the current stalemate was likely to persist.
“Neither side can do a large-scale attack without incurring very heavy casualties, and that’s likely to continue for the foreseeable future,” IIIS land warfare analyst Barry said.
(Reporting by Mark Trevelyan in London and Greg Torode in Hong Kong Editing by Gareth Jones)
