5 stats show how Russia’s economy is withering

Business Insider

5 stats show how Russia’s economy is withering

Phil Rosen – July 16, 2023

Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during the Victory Day military parade at Red Square in central Moscow on May 9, 2023.GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images
  • Russia’s economy has deteriorated since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
  • Its current-account balance has crashed, the ruble is weakening, and it’s status as an energy superpower has crumbled.
  • At the same time, Russia’s domestic consumption and production are low.

Russia’s economy is a shadow of what it was 16 months ago.

Before Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and prior to the onset of historic sanctions, Moscow commanded the world’s 11th largest economy and played a key role as a reliable, wide-reaching energy exporter.

Now however, from a weakening currency to tepid trade, all signs point to a sharp deterioration with no end in sight.

“Russia might collapse into multiple pieces, like the Soviet Union, and that might not be a bad thing for the world,” Volodymyr Lugovskyy, an economics professor at Indiana University, told Insider this week. “It’s resembling an empire right now, with a central power. Extreme events are highly possible.”

These five statistics illustrate how war has reshaped the Russian economy for the worse.

A weakening ruble

The ruble has been one of the worst-performing currencies this year, and geopolitical uncertainty in Russia has made it volatile.

During the failed mutiny in June by the Wagner Group, the currency tumbled to a 15-month low against the dollar as panicked citizens swapped for alternative currencies.

Over the last month, the ruble has weakened more than 6.8%, and it’s down more than 35% in the last year.

Current-account balance drops 93%

For the April to June quarter, the country posted a current-account surplus of $5.4 billion, marking a 93% plunge from a record $76.7 billion during the same stretch last year, according to the Russian central bank.

The fading current account surplus shows that Moscow has been unable to secure imports, and that its profits from energy exports are failing to prop up the economy like they did before.

Yale russia economy
Weakening Russian trade surplus illustrates inability to secure imports, and diminishing profits from windfall energy exports.Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute

“The decline in the surplus of the balance of the external trade in goods in January – June 2023 compared to the comparable period of 2022 was caused by a decrease in both the physical volumes of export deliveries and the deterioration in the price situation for the basic Russian export commodities, energy commodities made the most significant contribution to the decline in the value of exports,” the Bank of Russia said in a statement.

Energy revenue crash

Russia’s Finance Ministry said in June that revenue from oil and gas taxes dropped 36% compared to a year ago, while profits from crude and petroleum products fell 31%.

Before the war, Russia was responsible for almost 40% of the European Union’s natural gas imports, and a quarter of the bloc’s crude oil.

Those numbers have gone to almost zero since then, and even though Putin has turned to China and India as alternative buyers, Moscow has had to sell energy at steep discounts.

Yale Russia economy energy
Russia’s energy exports now go mostly to China and India.Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Russian car sales have tumbled

Before the invasion of Ukraine, roughly 100,000 vehicles were sold every single month across Russia, according to Yale research data shared with Insider.

Those sales have collapsed to about a quarter of that level, driven not only by soaring prices and sinking consumer sentiment, but also due to a lack of supply.

Yale collapse in russian economy car sales
Russia has seen a total collapse in car sales over the last year and a half.Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Brain drain and emigration

Millions of Russians have emigrated since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to Yale data, with Uzbekistan alone taking in more than 400,000 fleeing citizens.

The flight of capital and talent out of Russia is illustrated in the surge of money transfers to neighboring countries that aren’t normally seen as financial hubs, according to Yale, such as Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.

“While there is no concrete measure of how much capital flight has taken place, proxy measures, such as the explosion of non-resident deposits in UAE bank accounts, suggests that Russians of means are taking their productive capital out of Russia at a dramatic clip,” Yale researcher Jeffrey Sonnenfeld said.

Russia’s economy has gone from bad to worse in a matter of months. Here’s where the country is feeling pain the most.

Business Insider

Russia’s economy has gone from bad to worse in a matter of months. Here’s where the country is feeling pain the most.

Zahra Tayeb – July 16, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin sitting in a chair in front of a Russian flag.
Russian President Vladimir Putin.Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
  • Russia’s economy is going from bad to worse as Western sanctions hammer the country’s key sectors.
  • From slumping car sales to a plunging Russia ruble, the problems Russia faces keep on growing.
  • Here are key signs showing how Moscow’s economy is spiraling.

Russia’s economy just keeps getting worse – and there are plenty of ways to show that.

From plunging car sales to a dramatic collapse in its current-account surplus, there’s no way to hide Moscow’s troubles.

The country’s economic woes have multiplied since its invasion of Ukraine early last year. The conflict has triggered a wave of sanctions from the Western world. Some have even blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for inflicting so much pain on the nation, with Yale researchers saying he’s “cannibalizing” Russia’s economy in his urge to conquer Ukraine.

“The lion’s share of the economy is controlled by the state, the energy and financial sectors, and Putin is taking from the seed capital of those businesses to use as a cookie jar for his war chest,” researchers Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian said.

Russians are buying fewer cars

Russia’s car industry is one part of the economy that’s being squeezed.

Insider’s Phil Rosen reported that car sales in Moscow have tanked by nearly 75% since the Ukraine war broke out. The decline has been fueled by a mix of three factors: soaring prices, decreasing supply, and deteriorating consumer sentiment.

“Russians are just buying less cars, period,” Tian said. “That speaks to the weakness of the consumer in Russia. This is as close to a proxy to deteriorating consumer sentiment as there is, and the story it tells is profoundly distressing. Russians just aren’t spending money.”

At the same time, the number of Russians buying foreign-branded cars – typically viewed as luxury purchases – has neared a standstill. Instead, consumers are buying locally sourced cars, many of which are riddled with mechanical issues.

Plunging exports

Another sign that Russia’s economy is flailing is the dramatic collapse in its current-account balance.

Moscow’s central bank posted a 93% year-on-year drop in its current-account surplus for the April-June quarter. it fell from a record $76.7 billion to $5.4 billion.

The rough financials show how badly Western sanctions are biting the country, particularly its key energy sector where its oil-and-gas exports have taken a huge hit after price caps and bans were imposed.

Energy export revenue

Moscow garners a big chunk of its revenue from sales of oil and gas products, but Western penalties have eroded that income stream.

In June, Russia’s Finance Ministry said that revenue from oil-and-gas taxes fell 36% compared to a year ago to about 571 billion rubles, and that profits from crude and petroleum products tumbled 31% to 426 billion rubles.

Ruble in freefall

Adding to Russia’s troubles is a tumbling ruble. The country’s currency slumped to a 15-month low of 94.48 against the dollar earlier in July, triggered by capital flight, shrinking tax revenues, and declining central-bank reserves.

“The ruble doesn’t have anywhere to go but down,” Konstantin Sonin, a University of Chicago economist, said in a tweet.

Concerns about the currency’s volatility have prompted a wave of domestic withdrawals from the country’s central bank, amounting to over $1 billion. The bank run was mainly fueled by the recent Wagner revolt.

Russia’s weakening currency has forced the country to take desperate measures. Recently, Russia’s foreign minister urged Southeast Asian countries to dump the dollar and use local currencies to conduct trade.

Cheater in Chief, Pele Trump: Donald Trump’s nightmare golf shank caught on camera, and it’s embarrassing

Insider

Donald Trump’s nightmare golf shank caught on camera, and it’s embarrassing

Alia Shoaib – July 16, 2023

Trump LIV Golf
Former President Donald Trump.AP Photo/Seth Wenig
  • Donald Trump hit a terrible shot during a round of golf, shanking the ball way right of the green.
  • The former president’s poor shot was caught on camera at Trump National Golf Club in Los Angeles.
  • Trump has embraced reports he has a 2.8 handicap, but observers say he is not as good as he claims.

Former President Donald Trump was caught on video hitting a terrible golf shot, shanking the ball way right of his intended target.

In the video posted on Twitter, the person filming can be heard saying: “Trump’s shooting right now. Let’s see if he can hit the green.”

Despite being a few feet from the putting green, Trump takes his swing and sends the ball flying away from the hole and into the rough.

“Oh, he shanked it,” the commentator said in the video, filmed at the Trump National Golf Club in Los Angeles, and started laughing.

The former president is known to be an avid golfer, owning several golf courses and often devoting his spare time to the sport.

He has also embraced reports listing him as the greatest golfer of any US president with a handicap of 2.8, per The Independent. The average golf handicap for men in 2022 was 14.1, per the United States Golf Association.

But many observers have questioned Trump’s golfing prowess, with the ranking mocked by social media users.

Rick Reilly, a sportswriter, also cast doubt on the figure, writing in a book about Trump’s golfing: “If Trump is a 2.8, Queen Elizabeth is a pole vaulter.”

Others who have played with Trump agree that he may not be quite as good as some have made out.

Former pro golfer Brad Faxon said Trump was “a legit 10,” and former LPGA golfer Annika Sörenstam guessed he was “a 9 or 10,” per Golf Digest.

Former President Donald Trump at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster on July 28, 2022.
Former President Donald Trump at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster on July 28, 2022.Jonathan Ferrey/LIV Golf via Getty Images

Trump has also often been accused of serially cheating in golf.

“Trump doesn’t just cheat at golf,” Reilly wrote in his book about Trump’s golf.

“He throws it, boots it, and moves it. He lies about his lies. He fudges and foozles and fluffs. At Winged Foot, where Trump is a member, the caddies got so used to seeing him kick his ball back onto the fairway they came up with a nickname for him: ‘Pele.'”

Early this year, Trump claimed victory against “many fine golfers” in the Trump International Golf Club’s Senior Championship, despite reportedly missing one tournament day.

According to The Daily Mail, Trump’s competitors were surprised when they showed up to the course on Sunday only to find that the former president had claimed a five-stroke lead. According to the report, Trump claimed that an earlier round would count for his score in lieu of him having missed the start of the tournament.

Putin says Russia has stockpiled cluster bombs and will use them in Ukraine if it has to

Reuters

Putin says Russia has stockpiled cluster bombs and will use them in Ukraine if it has to

Reuters – July 16, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council in Moscow

MOSCOW (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin said Russia had a “sufficient stockpile” of cluster bombs and reserved the right to use them if such munitions, the use of which he said he regarded as a crime, were deployed against Russian forces in Ukraine.

Ukraine said on Thursday it had received cluster bombs from the United States, its biggest military backer, which says the munitions are needed to compensate for shell shortages faced by Kyiv’s forces at a time when they are mounting a counteroffensive.

Cluster munitions are banned in more than 100 countries because they typically release large numbers of smaller bomblets that can kill indiscriminately over a wide area. Some of them inevitably fail to explode and can pose a danger for decades, particularly to children.

Kyiv has said it will use cluster bombs to dislodge concentrations of enemy soldiers when trying to take back its own territory, but will not use them on Russian territory.

Putin told state TV Moscow would respond in kind if necessary.

“I want to note that in the Russian Federation there is a sufficient stockpile of different kinds of cluster bombs. We have not used them yet. But of course if they are used against us, we reserve the right to take reciprocal action.”

Putin said he regarded the use of cluster bombs as a crime and that Russia had so far not needed to use them itself despite having suffered its own ammunition issues in the past.

Human Rights Watch says both Moscow and Kyiv have used cluster munitions. Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. have not signed up to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which bans the production, stockpiling, use and transfer of the weapons.

Putin also told state TV he saw nothing wrong in Russian specialists examining captured Western military equipment and missiles, such as the Storm Shadow missiles Britain supplied to Ukraine, in order to see if there was anything useful that could be used in Russia’s own military hardware.

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

Vlad Carlson worships Putin: Tucker Carlson Turns a Christian Presidential Forum Into a Putin Showcase

The New York Times

Tucker Carlson Turns a Christian Presidential Forum Into a Putin Showcase

Jonathan Weisman – July 15, 2023

FILE – Tucker Carlson, host of “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” poses for photos in a Fox News Channel studio, March 2, 2017, in New York. A former Donald Trump supporter who became the center of a conspiracy theory about Jan. 6, 2021, filed a defamation lawsuit against Fox News on Wednesday, July 12, 2023, saying the network made him a scapegoat for the Capitol insurrection. Although the lawsuit mentions Fox’s Laura Ingraham and Will Cain, former Fox host Carlson was cited as the leader in promoting the theory. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)More

DES MOINES, Iowa — Bob Vander Plaats, the conservative evangelical kingmaker in Iowa politics, now knows what happens when you turn over your Republican presidential showcase to Tucker Carlson.

Jesus is out. Vladimir Putin is in.

Carlson was given the task of interviewing six Republican presidential hopefuls at the Family Leadership conference in Des Moines on Friday. Consequently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine became the dominant issue of debate, on a day when Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa used the event to sign a near-total abortion ban into law.

In the hands of Carlson, the former Fox News host who was recently fired, Ukraine became the bad actor in the conflict, not Russia.

The most heated exchange came when Carlson interviewed former Vice President Mike Pence before a packed auditorium in Des Moines’ convention center. Pence was berating the Biden administration for being too slow to provide advanced weaponry to Ukraine.

“We promised them 33 Abrams tanks in January. I heard again two weeks ago in Ukraine, they still don’t have them,” Pence said. “We’ve been telling them we’ll train their F-16 pilots, but now they’re saying maybe January.”

Carlson interjected, to the delight of much of the audience. “Wait, I know you’re running for president, but you are distressed that Ukrainians don’t have enough American tanks?” he asked, in his trademark confrontational style.

For good measure, Carlson called Ukraine an American “client state,” accused Ukraine’s Jewish leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of persecuting Christians and strongly indicated Pence had been conned, despite evidence to the contrary.

Pence was not alone. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., argued that by degrading Russia’s military, U.S. aid to Ukraine was making the United States stronger and more secure.

Carlson responded with a signature dismissive response.

“The total body count from Russia in the United States is right around zero; I don’t know anyone who’s been killed by Russia,” Carlson said. “I know people personally who have been killed by Mexico,” he said, adding, “Why is Mexico less of a threat than Russia?”

It didn’t go any better for his first target, Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, who led border security under former President George W. Bush. He found himself making the case to Carlson that bombing Mexican drug cartels might be problematic since it would be an act of war against a friendly neighboring state.

The divide in the Republican Party between traditional conservatives who favor the projection of American military might and a new, more isolationist wing that leans toward Russia is nothing new. But the Family Leadership Summit was supposed to be a showcase of Christian values, where social issues like abortion and transgender rights were expected to be center stage.

But by making Carlson something of a master of ceremonies, Vander Plaats, the president of The Family Leader, which hosted the summit, dealt the crowd a wild card. By the time the spotlight turned to Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, Eric Teetsel, vice president of government relations at the Heritage Foundation, praised her as “still willing to come up onstage” after the preceding appearances.

Pence had his laments after his appearance. “I regret that we didn’t have very much time during my time onstage to talk about the progress for life or issues impacting the family,” he said, before adding, “I’m really never surprised by Tucker Carlson.”

Federal judge rules Oregon’s tough new gun law is constitutional

Associated Press

Federal judge rules Oregon’s tough new gun law is constitutional

July 15, 2023

FILE – Firearms are displayed at a gun shop in Salem, Ore., Feb. 19, 2021. A federal judge has ruled Oregon’s voter-approved gun control measure, one of the toughest in the nation, is constitutional. Oregon voters in November narrowly passed Measure 114, which requires residents to undergo safety training and a background check to obtain a permit to buy a gun. The Oregon measure’s fate has been carefully watched as one of the first new gun restrictions passed since the Supreme Court ruling last June. (AP Photo/Andrew Selsky, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)More

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — A federal judge has ruled Oregon’s voter-approved gun control measure – one of the toughest in the nation – is constitutional.

U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut ruled that banning large capacity magazines and requiring a permit to purchase a gun falls in line with “the nation’s history and tradition of regulating uniquely dangerous features of weapons and firearms to protect public safety,” Oregon Public Broadcasting reported.

The decision comes after a landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision on the Second Amendment that has upended gun laws across the country, dividing judges and sowing confusion over what firearm restrictions can remain on the books. It changed the test that lower courts had long used for evaluating challenges to firearm restrictions, telling judges that gun laws must be consistent with the “historical tradition of firearm regulation.”

Oregon voters in November narrowly passed Measure 114, which requires residents to undergo safety training and a background check to obtain a permit to buy a gun.

The legislation also bans the sale, transfer or import of gun magazines with more than 10 rounds unless they are owned by law enforcement or a military member or were owned before the measure’s passage. Those who already own high-capacity magazines can only possess them at home or use them at a firing range, in shooting competitions or for hunting as allowed by state law after the measure takes effect.

Large capacity magazines “are not commonly used for self-defense, and are therefore not protected by the Second Amendment,” Immergut wrote. “The Second Amendment also allows governments to ensure that only law-abiding, responsible citizens keep and bear arms.”

The latest ruling in U.S. District Court is likely to be appealed, potentially moving all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The Oregon measure’s fate has been carefully watched as one of the first new gun restrictions passed since the Supreme Court ruling last June.

Jack the Ripper’s identity ‘revealed’ by newly discovered medical records

The Telegraph

Jack the Ripper’s identity ‘revealed’ by newly discovered medical records

Dalya Alberge – July 15, 2023

Hyam Hyams
Hyam Hyams, photographed at Colney Hatch Lunatic Asylum in 1899, has been named as a key suspect in the Jack the Ripper murders – London Metropolitan Archives

A former police volunteer claims to have discovered the identity of the figure behind some of the most shocking crimes in British history, unmasking the 19th-century murderer who terrorised the nation as Jack the Ripper.

Sarah Bax Horton – whose great-great-grandfather was a policeman at the heart of the Ripper investigation – has unearthed compelling evidence that matches witness descriptions of the man seen with female victims shortly before they were stabbed to death in 1888 in the East End of London.

Her detective work has led her to Hyam Hyams, who lived in an area at the centre of the murders and who, as a cigar-maker, knew how to use a knife. He was an epileptic and an alcoholic who was in and out of mental asylums, his condition worsening after he was injured in an accident and unable to work. He repeatedly assaulted his wife, paranoid that she was cheating on him, and was eventually arrested after he attacked her and his mother with “a chopper”.

Significantly, Ms Bax Horton gained access to his medical records and discovered dramatic details. She told The Telegraph: “For the first time in history, Jack the Ripper can be identified as Hyam Hyams using distinctive physical characteristics.”

Sarah Bax Horton
Sarah Bax Horton has researched medical records in her quest to find Jack the Ripper – HENRY HARRISON

Witnesses described a man in his mid-thirties with a stiff arm and an irregular gait with bent knees, and Ms Bax Horton discovered that the medical notes of Hyams – who was 35 in 1888 – recorded an injury that left him unable to “bend or extend” his left arm as well as an irregular gait and an inability to straighten his knees, with asymmetric foot dragging. He also had the most severe form of epilepsy, with regular seizures.

The victims were prostitutes or destitute. Their throats were cut and their bodies butchered in frenzied attacks with the authorities received taunting anonymous notes from someone calling himself Jack the Ripper. They are some of the most infamous unsolved crimes.

At least six women Martha Tabram, Polly Nichols, Annie Chapman, Elisabeth Stride, Kate Eddowes and Mary Jane Kelly – were killed in or near Whitechapel between August and November 1888.

Hyams’ medical notes, taken from various infirmaries and asylums, reveal that his mental and physical decline coincided with the Ripper’s killing period, escalating between his breaking his left arm in February 1888 and his permanent committal in September 1889.

“That escalation path matched the increasing violence of the murders,” said Ms Bax Horton. “He was particularly violent after his severe epileptic fits, which explains the periodicity of the murders.”

She added: “In the files, it said what the eyewitnesses said – that he had a peculiar gait. He was weak at the knees and wasn’t fully extending his legs. When he walked, he had a kind of shuffling gait, which was probably a side-effect of some brain damage as a result of his epilepsy.”

An 1888 Illustrated Police News front page reports on the murders
An 1888 Illustrated Police News front page reports on the murders – alamy

Witness accounts of the man’s height and weight were similar to the details in Hyams’ medical files, Ms Bax Horton discovered.

“They saw a man of medium height and build, between 5ft 5in. and 5ft 8in. Tall, stout and broad-shouldered. Hyams was 5 foot 7 and a half inches, and weighed 10 stone 7 lbs… His photograph demonstrates that he was noticeably broad-shouldered,” she said.

She has concluded that Hyams’ physical and mental decline – exacerbated by his alcoholism – triggered him to kill. The murders stopped at the end of 1888, around the time Hyams was picked up by the police as “a wandering lunatic”. In 1889, he was incarcerated in the Colney Hatch Lunatic Asylum, north London, until his death in 1913. Jack the Ripper never struck again.

Various suspects have previously been suggested as the man behind the killings, including the artist Walter Sickert, who painted gruesome pictures of a murdered prostitute.

Hyams had been on a “long list” of around 100 culprits, but Ms Bax Horton said he had been discounted because he had been misidentified. “When I was trying to identify the correct Hyam Hyams, I found about five. It took quite a lot of work to identify his correct biographical data. Hyam Hyams has never before been fully explored as a Ripper suspect. To protect the confidentiality of living individuals, two of the Colney Hatch Asylum files on patients, including Hyams, were closed to public view until 2013 and 2015.”

What makes her research particularly extraordinary is that it was prompted by her chance discovery in 2017 that her own great-great-grandfather, Harry Garrett, had been a Metropolitan Police sergeant at Leman Street Police Station, headquarters of the Ripper investigation. He was posted there from January 1888 – the murders’ fateful year – until 1896.

Sergeant Harry Garrett, who worked on theJack the Ripper case
Sergeant Harry Garrett, who worked on theJack the Ripper case

Ms Bax Horton, who read English and modern languages at Oxford University, is a retired civil servant who volunteered with the City of London Police for almost two decades until 2020. She had no idea of her ancestor’s history until she began researching her family and found herself studying the Ripper case.

She will now present her extensive evidence in a forthcoming book, titled One-Armed Jack: Uncovering the Real Jack the Ripper, to be published by Michael O’Mara Books next month.

It is written in tribute to her ancestor and his police colleagues.

Paul Begg, a leading Ripper authority, has endorsed it. “This is a well-researched, well-written, and long-needed book-length examination of a likely suspect. If you have an idea of the sort of man Jack the Ripper might have been, Hyam Hyams could be it,” he said.

Americans are widely pessimistic about democracy in the United States, an AP-NORC poll finds

Associated Press

Americans are widely pessimistic about democracy in the United States, an AP-NORC poll finds

Nicholas Riccardi and Linley Saunders – July 14, 2023

FILE - Protester David Barrows carries a sign during a rally to press Congress to pass voting rights protections and the "Build Back Better Act," Monday, Dec. 13, 2021, in Washington. A new poll finds that only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults give high ratings to the way democracy is working in the United States or how well it represents the interests of most Americans. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)
 Protester David Barrows carries a sign during a rally to press Congress to pass voting rights protections and the “Build Back Better Act,” Monday, Dec. 13, 2021, in Washington. A new poll finds that only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults give high ratings to the way democracy is working in the United States or how well it represents the interests of most Americans. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)
FILE - In this Jan. 26, 2020, file photo, people cheer as Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks at a campaign rally in Sioux City, Iowa. A new poll finds that only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults give high ratings to the way democracy is working in the United States or how well it represents the interests of most Americans. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
 In this Jan. 26, 2020, file photo, people cheer as Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks at a campaign rally in Sioux City, Iowa. A new poll finds that only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults give high ratings to the way democracy is working in the United States or how well it represents the interests of most Americans. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
FILE - A Republican supporter holds a "Save America" sign at a rally for former President Donald Trump at the Minden Tahoe Airport in Minden, Nev., Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022. A new poll finds that only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults give high ratings to the way democracy is working in the United States or how well it represents the interests of most Americans.(AP Photo/José Luis Villegas, Pool, File)
A Republican supporter holds a “Save America” sign at a rally for former President Donald Trump at the Minden Tahoe Airport in Minden, Nev., Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022. A new poll finds that only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults give high ratings to the way democracy is working in the United States or how well it represents the interests of most Americans.(AP Photo/José Luis Villegas, Pool, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults give high ratings to the way democracy is working in the United States or how well it represents the interests of most Americans, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Majorities of adults say U.S. laws and policies do a poor job of representing what most Americans want on issues ranging from the economy and government spending to gun policy, immigration and abortion. The poll shows 53% say Congress is doing a bad job of upholding democratic values, compared with just 16% who say it’s doing a good job.

The findings illustrate widespread political alienation as a polarized country limps out of the pandemic and into a recovery haunted by inflation and fears of a recession. In interviews, respondents worried less about the machinery of democracy — voting laws and the tabulation of ballots — and more about the outputs.

Overall, about half the country — 49% — say democracy is not working well in the United States, compared with 10% who say it’s working very or extremely well and 40% only somewhat well. About half also say each of the political parties is doing a bad job of upholding democracy, including 47% who say that about Democrats and even more — 56% — about Republicans.

“I don’t think either of them is doing a good job just because of the state of the economy — inflation is killing us,” said Michael Brown, a 45-year-old worker’s compensation adjuster and father of two in Bristol, Connecticut. “Right now I’m making as much as I ever have, and I’m struggling as much as I ever have.”

A self-described moderate Republican, Brown has seen the United States falling short of its democratic promise ever since learning in high school that the Electoral College allows someone to become president while not winning the majority of national votes. But he’s especially disappointed with Congress now, seeing its obsessions as not reflective of the people’s will.

“They’re fighting over something, and it has nothing to do with the economy,” Brown said, singling out the GOP-controlled House’s investigation of President Joe Biden’s son.

“Hunter Biden — what does that have to do with us?” he asked.

The poll shows 53% of Americans say views of “people like you” are not represented well by the government, with 35% saying they’re represented somewhat well and 12% very or extremely well. About 6 in 10 Republicans and independents feel like the government is not representing people like them well, compared with about 4 in 10 Democrats.

Karalyn Kiessling, a researcher at the University of Michigan who participated in the poll, sees troubling signs all around her. A Democrat, she recently moved to a conservative area outside the liberal campus hub of Ann Arbor, and worried that conspiracy theorists who believe former President Donald Trump’s lies that he won the 2020 election would show up as poll watchers. Her Republican family members no longer identify with the party and are limiting their political engagement.

Kiessling researches the intersection of public health and politics and sees many other ways to participate in a democracy in addition to voting — from being active in a political party to speaking at a local government meeting. But she fears increased partisan nastiness is scaring people away from these crucial outlets.

“I think people are less willing to get involved because it’s become more contentious,” Kiessling, 29, said.

That leads to alienation at the national level, she said — something she certainly feels when she sees what comes out of Washington. “When you have a base that’s a minority of what general Americans think, but they’re the loudest voices in the room, that’s who politicians listen to,” Kiessling said.

Polarization has transformed some states into single-party dominions, further alienating people like Mark Short, a Republican who lives in Dana Point, California.

“In California, I kind of feel that I throw my vote away every time, and this is just what you get,” said Short, 63, a retired businessman.

The poll shows that the vast majority of Americans — 71% — think what most Americans want should be highly important when laws and policies are made, but only 48% think that’s actually true in practice.

And views are even more negative when it comes to specific issues: About two-thirds of adults say policies on immigration, government spending, abortion policy and gun policy are not representative of most Americans’ views, and nearly that many say the same about the economy as well as gender identity and LGBTQ+ issues. More than half also say policies poorly reflect what Americans want on health care and the environment.

Joseph Derito, an 81-year-old retired baker in Elmyra, New York, sees immigration policy as not representing the views of most Americans. “The government today is all for the people who have nothing — a lot of them are capable of working but get help,” said Derito, a white political independent who leans Republican and voted for Trump. “They just want to give these people everything.”

Sandra Wyatt, a 68-year-old retired data collection worker and Democrat in Cincinnati, blames Trump for what she sees as an erosion in democracy. “When he got in there, it was like, man, you’re trying to take us back to the day, before all the rights and privileges everybody fought for,” said Wyatt, who is Black, adding that she’s voted previously for Republicans as well.

She sees those bad dynamics as lingering after Trump’s presidency. “We always knew there was racism but now they’re emboldened enough to go around and shoot people because of the color of their skin,” Wyatt said.

Stanley Hobbs, a retired autoworker in Detroit and a Democrat, blames “a few Republicans” for what he sees as democracy’s erosion in the U.S. He sees those GOP politicians as beholden to a cabal of big businesses and points to issues like abortion as examples of how the laws no longer represent the views of the majority of Americans.

He’s trying to stay optimistic.

“It seems like this always happens in the U.S. and we always prevail,” Hobbs said, recalling how American politicians sympathetic to Nazi Germany gained prominence before World War II. “I just hope we prevail this time.”

Riccardi reported from Denver.

The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The poll of 1,220 adults was conducted June 22-26 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Americans haven’t felt this good about the economy in almost two years

Yahoo! Finance

Americans haven’t felt this good about the economy in almost two years

Josh Schafer, Reporter – July 14, 2023

A commonly followed measure of consumer confidence in the US economy just increased to the highest level since September 2021.

The first July reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a reading of 72.6 on Friday. The print came in significantly higher than the 65.5 economists had expected and reflected a 13% increase from the month prior. That marks the fastest pace since December 2005, when the economy was recovering from Hurricane Katrina.

“The sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets,” Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release.

Consumers have had plenty to be bullish about recently, including a month of largely strong economic dataupbeat reports to kick off second quarter earnings, and waning fears of a second Federal Reserve rate hike in the back half of the year propelling the 2023 stock market rally higher.

A 19% surge in long-term business conditions and a 16% increase in short-run business conditions were the primary drivers behind Friday’s surprise print, according to the University of Michigan. The report did, however, include a slight uptick in consumers’ inflation expectations.

The expectations for inflation over the next year are now at 3.4%, up from 3.3% in June but down from the highs of 5.4% in April 2022. Analysts had anticipated one-year inflation expectations to tick down to 3.1%

“Easing concerns about a recession, which had been garnering a ton of headlines in the media for most of the year, may have helped push sentiment and expectation higher,” Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote on Friday.

Consumers have had plenty to be bullish about recently, including strong June jobs numbers and data showing that inflation eased during the month. (Photo by Allison Joyce/Getty Images)
Consumers have had plenty to be bullish about recently, including strong June jobs numbers and data showing that inflation eased during the month. (Photo by Allison Joyce/Getty Images)

The Friday release follows a week of upbeat economic data. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index for June came in cooler than projected, rising at its slowest pace since March 2021. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index painted a similar picture. The labor market, meanwhile, continued to show resilience with weekly jobless claims of 237,000 coming in lower than expectations for 250,000 claims and below the week prior’s 249,000 claims.

Last week’s June jobs report showed the labor market is cooling with nonfarm payroll additions coming in short of expectations for the first time in 15 months. But economists were quick to note that the economy still added 209,000 jobs, the unemployment ticked lower to 3.6%, and average hourly earnings grew 4.4% from the year prior.

At scale, that data paints a picture of a tight labor market where Americans have jobs while prices for goods continue to decrease.

This is what happens when attorneys go along with Kari Lake’s election delusions

AZ Central – The Arizona Republic – Opinion

This is what happens when attorneys go along with Kari Lake’s election delusions

Laurie Roberts, Arizona Republic – July 14, 2023

Mark Finchem, Republican candidate for Arizona secretary of state and Kari Lake, Arizona gubernatorial candidate.
Mark Finchem, Republican candidate for Arizona secretary of state and Kari Lake, Arizona gubernatorial candidate.

A federal judge on Friday ordered the attorneys for Kari Lake and Mark Finchem to pay Maricopa County $122,200 — money the county’s taxpayers spent to fend off a “frivolous” lawsuit brought before last year’s election.

Turns out judges don’t much like to see the court system used as a campaign prop.

Attorneys should take note of this.

Lawsuit was simply a campaign stunt

You may recall that Lake and Finchem — with financial backing from MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell — filed suit in April 2022 while they were running for governor and secretary of state.

Their lawsuit asked a judge to bar the machine tabulation of votes in the 2022 election and require that paper ballots be used instead. They claimed that Arizona vote-counting machines produced inaccurate results and that there were no paper ballots to verify the machine count.

Never mind, apparently, the fact that they had no evidence to back up their claims.

Or that Arizona not only already uses paper ballots but state law requires a hand count of a random sample of those ballots, to verify the machine count is accurate.

Appeal moves to Tucson: And Kari Lake smells a conspiracy

But then, their lawsuit wasn’t a serious attempt to remedy a real problem. It was yet another campaign stunt, employed to make baseless claims about supposedly stolen elections.

A judge called Lake and Finchem on it

To his credit, U.S. District Court John J. Tuchi called them on it.

Last August, he threw out their lawsuit, noting that the pair provided no evidence that machine counting produces inaccurate results and no proof that a hand count of ballots would be more accurate.

In December, he followed up by granting Maricopa County’s request for sanctions against the lawyers for bringing a “frivolous” lawsuit that “baselessly kicked up a cloud of dust.”

“In sum,” Tuchi wrote, “Plaintiffs lacked an adequate factual or legal basis to support the wide ranging constitutional claims they raised or the extraordinary relief they requested. Plaintiffs filled the gaps between their factual assertions, claimed injuries, and requested relief with false, misleading, and speculative allegations.”

Lawyers, take note: You better have evidence

And on Friday, he socked attorneys Kurt Olsen, Andrew Parker and Alan Dershowitz with the county’s $122K bill, though Dershowitz is liable for just 10% of the tab.

Dershowitz, one of the nation’s pre-eminent constitutional law experts, tried to wiggle out of any responsibility by minimizing his involvement, but the judge wasn’t having it.

“Attorneys must be reminded that their duties are not qualified in the way he suggests and that courts are entitled to rely on their signatures as certifications their filings are well-founded,” Tuchi wrote.

Turns out judges don’t like it when attorneys throw in with their clients to bring false, misleading and speculative allegations.

Now, they’re on notice that there’s a price to be paid for doing that.