How many Russians have died in Ukraine? Data shows what Moscow hides
Erika Kinetz – July 10, 2023
A Russian soldier killed during combats against Ukrainian army lies on a corn field in Sytnyaky, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, March 27, 2022. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to a new statistical analysis. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd, File)Ukrainian servicemen load bodies of Russian soldiers in to a railway refrigerator carriage in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, May 13, 2022. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to a new statistical analysis. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File) Relatives of servicemen who died during the Russian Special military operation in Donbas pose for a photo holding portraits of Russian soldiers killed during a fighting in Ukraine, after attending the Immortal Regiment march through a street marking the 77th anniversary of the end of World War II, in Sevastopol, Crimea, May 9, 2022. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to a new statistical analysis. (AP Photo, File)A woman at a cemetery in Volzhsky, outside Volgograd, Russia, on May 26, 2022, looks at the graves of Russian soldiers killed in the war in Ukraine. Some experts say that Europe’s largest conflict since World War II could drag on for years. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to a new statistical analysis. (AP Photo, File)The father and son of Russian army Sgt. Daniil Dumenko, 35, who was killed in Ukraine, mourn his death at a ceremony in Volzhsky, outside Volgograd, Russia, on May 26, 2022. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to a new statistical analysis. (AP Photo, File)Ukraine’s military official workers move bodies of killed Russian soldiers into a refrigerator in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Saturday, June 18, 2022. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to a new statistical analysis. (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko, File)The remains of one of the Russian soldiers killed in battles and abandoned by the Russian troops in Sviatohirsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Volunteers of a Ukrainian search group look for the remains of Ukrainian and Russian servicemen to identify them. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead. (AP Photo/Andriy Andriyenko, FileUkrainian servicemen pack the dead body of a Russian soldier, killed in a recent battle in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, Saturday, April 8, 2023. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead. (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko, File)A grave of a Russian serviceman who died during the Russian-Ukrainian war at the cemetery in the village of Dinskaya, Krasnodar region, southern Russia, on Saturday, April 1, 2023. Nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead. (AP Photo, File)
BRUSSELS (AP) — Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead.
Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine.
To do so, they relied on a statistical concept popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic called excess mortality. Drawing on inheritance records and official mortality data, they estimated how many more men under age 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 than normal.
Neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, and each is at pains to amplify the other side’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers. Reports about military losses have been repressed in Russian media, activists and independent journalists say. Documenting the dead has become an act of defiance; those who do so face harassment and potential criminal charges.
Despite such challenges, Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service, working with a network of volunteers, have used social media postings and photographs of cemeteries across Russia to build a database of confirmed war deaths. As of July 7, they had identified 27,423 dead Russian soldiers.
“These are only soldiers who we know by name, and their deaths in each case are verified by multiple sources,” said Dmitry Treshchanin, an editor at Mediazona who helped oversee the investigation. “The estimate we did with Meduza allows us to see the ‘hidden’ deaths, deaths the Russian government is so obsessively and unsuccessfully trying to hide.”
To come up with a more comprehensive tally, journalists from Mediazona and Meduza obtained records of inheritance cases filed with the Russian authorities. Their data from the National Probate Registry contained information about more than 11 million people who died between 2014 and May 2023.
According to their analysis, 25,000 more inheritance cases were opened in 2022 for males aged 15 to 49 than expected. By May 27, 2023, the number of excess cases had shot up to 47,000.
That surge is roughly in line with a May assessment by the White House that more than 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December, though lower than U.S. and U.K. intelligence assessments of overall Russian deaths.
In February, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely been killed in the war. A leaked assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency put the number of Russians killed in action in the first year of the war at 35,000 to 43,000.
“Their figures might be accurate, or they might not be,” Treshchanin, the Mediazona editor, said in an email. “Even if they have sources in the Russian Ministry of Defense, its own data could be incomplete. It’s extremely difficult to pull together all of the casualties from the army, Rosgvardia, Akhmat battalion, various private military companies, of which Wagner is the largest, but not the only one. Casualties among inmates, first recruited by Wagner and now by the MoD, are also a very hazy subject, with a lot of potential for manipulation. Statistics could actually give better results.”
Many Russian fatalities – as well as amputations – could have been prevented with better front-line first aid, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said in an intelligence assessment published Monday. Russia has suffered an average of around 400 casualties a day for 17 months, creating a “crisis” in combat medical care that is likely undermining medical services for civilians in border regions near Ukraine, the ministry said.
Independently, Dmitry Kobak, a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University who has published work on excess COVID-19 deaths in Russia, obtained mortality data broken down by age and sex for 2022 from Rosstat, Russia’s official statistics agency.
He found that 24,000 more men under age 50 died in 2022 than expected, a figure that aligns with the analysis of inheritance data.
The COVID-19 pandemic made it harder to figure out how many men would have died in Russia since February 2022 if there hadn’t been a war. Both analyses corrected for the lingering effects of COVID on mortality by indexing male death rates against female deaths.
Sergei Scherbov, a scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, cautioned that “differences in the number of deaths between males and females can vary significantly due to randomness alone.”
“I am not saying that there couldn’t be an excess number of male deaths, but rather that statistically speaking, this difference in deaths could be a mere outcome of chance,” he said.
Russians who are missing but not officially recognized as dead, as well as citizens of Ukraine fighting in units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, are not included in these counts.
Kobak acknowledged that some uncertainties remain, especially for deaths of older men. Moreover, it’s hard to know how many missing Russian soldiers are actually dead. But he said neither factor is likely to have a huge impact.
“That uncertainty is in the thousands,” he said. “The results are plausible overall.”
Asked by the Associated Press on Monday about the Meduza and Mediazona study, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during a conference call with reporters he wasn’t aware of it as the Kremlin had “stopped monitoring” Meduza. Peskov also refused to comment on the number of deaths mentioned in the study, saying only that “the Defense Ministry gives the numbers, and they’re the only ones who have that prerogative.”
Meduza is an independent Russian media outlet that has been operating in exile for eight years, with headquarters in Riga, Latvia. In April 2021, Russian authorities designated Meduza a “foreign agent,” making it harder to generate advertising income, and in January 2023, the Kremlin banned Meduza as an illegal “undesirable organization.”
Moscow has also labeled independent outlet Mediazona as a “foreign agent” and blocked its website after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Dasha Litvinova contributed to this report from Tallinn, Estonia.
Exclusive-Wagner fighters neared Russian nuclear base during revolt
July 10, 2023
Exclusive-Wagner fighters neared Russian nuclear base during revolt
(Reuters) – As rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents.
Once the Wagner fighters reach more rural regions, the surveillance trail goes cold – about 100 km from the nuclear base, Voronezh-45. Reuters could not confirm what happened next, and Western officials have repeatedly said that Russia’s nuclear stockpile was never in danger during the uprising, which ended quickly and mysteriously later that day.
But in an exclusive interview, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said that the Wagner fighters went far further. He said that they reached the nuclear base and that their intention was to acquire small Soviet-era nuclear devices in order to “raise the stakes” in their mutiny. “Because if you are prepared to fight until the last man standing, this is one of the facilities that significantly raises the stakes,” Budanov said.
The only barrier between the Wagner fighters and nuclear weapons, Budanov said, were the doors to the nuclear storage facility. “The doors of the storage were closed and they didn’t get into the technical section,” he said.
Reuters was not able to independently determine if Wagner fighters made it to Voronezh-45. Budanov did not provide evidence for his assertion and he declined to say what discussions, if any, had taken place with the United States and other allies about the incident. He also didn’t say why the fighters subsequently withdrew.
A source close to the Kremlin with military ties corroborated parts of Budanov’s account. A Wagner contingent “managed to get into a zone of special interest, as a result of which the Americans got agitated because nuclear munitions are stored there,” this person said, without elaborating further.
A source in Russian occupied east Ukraine, with knowledge of the matter, said this caused concern in the Kremlin and provided impetus for a hastily negotiated end to the rebellion on the evening of June 24, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
U.S. officials expressed doubts about this account. In response to a query about whether Wagner forces reached the base and sought to acquire nuclear weapons, White House National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge said, “We are not able to corroborate this report. We had no indication at any point that nuclear weapons or materials were at risk.”
The Kremlin and Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin did not respond to questions for this article.
Matt Korda, a Senior Research Associate and Project Manager for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said it would be “virtually impossible for a non-state actor” to breach Russian nuclear security. Wagner may have had thousands of troops at its disposal, he said, but it’s unlikely any of them knew how to detonate a bomb.
“If you had a malicious actor who was able to get their hands on a nuclear weapon, they would find the weapons stored in a state of incomplete assembly,” he said. “They would need to be completed by installing specialised equipment and then unlocking permissive action links, and in order to do that they would need the cooperation of someone from the 12th Directorate” responsible for protecting Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Budanov is the first official to suggest Wagner fighters came close to acquiring nuclear weapons and further escalating an armed mutiny that has been widely interpreted as the biggest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power. U.S. officials have long feared the nightmare possibility that strife in Russia might lead to nuclear devices falling into rogue hands.
Wagner fighters drove in the direction of Voronezh-45 after peeling away from a larger convoy of heavy weaponry that was advancing along the M4 highway that runs north from Rostov, where the rebellion began. This smaller group headed east, and engaged Russian forces in a firefight at the first village it reached, according to residents and social media posts. But then it appears to have passed without hindrance for 90 km, including driving unchallenged through the centre of a town that houses a military base.
Reuters followed the group’s progress to the town of Talovaya, about 100 km from the base, which dates back to the Soviet era. It is one of Russia’s 12 “national-level storage facilities” for nuclear weapons, according to a report by U.N. scientists. At Talovaya, Russian forces attacked the column, according to local people who spoke to Reuters. A Russian helicopter was shot down, killing the two crew.
Reuters interviewed Budanov in his Kyiv office, which Russia targeted with strikes as recently as May. Dressed in military fatigues with a black pistol tucked into his waistband, Budanov spoke in front of a painting that depicts an owl, a symbol of Ukraine’s spy bureau, clutching a bat, symbol of Russia’s military intelligence agency. He said Voronezh-45 houses small nuclear devices that can be carried in a backpack. “This was one of the key storage facilities for these backpacks,” he said, without providing evidence for this assertion. Reuters was unable to establish if the backpack-sized nuclear charges, referred to by Budanov, are kept at Voronezh-45.
Such small nuclear bombs – light enough to be carried by a single person – are Cold War relics. American troops trained to parachute from planes with nuclear weapons strapped to their bodies and Soviet troops trained to deploy them behind enemy lines on foot. But by the early 1990s, both nations agreed to remove them from their arsenals as tensions eased, and did so, though Russia kept some to mine harbours, said Hans Kristensen, who leads the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, based in Washington.
Several former U.S. nuclear nonproliferation officials cautioned that it’s difficult to know for sure whether the Russians kept their promise to destroy their backpack-style nuclear weapons. “I don’t believe the Russians still have them, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it,” said David Jonas, former general counsel to the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, which tracks atomic weapons and radioactive material worldwide.
Amy Woolf, a nuclear weapons specialist for U.S. lawmakers at the Library of Congress from 1988 to 2022, raised doubts about the potency of such weapons if they do still exist. “It’s possible there’s still some old crap stuck in storage somewhere,” she said. “But is it operational? Almost certainly not.”
Jonas, who advised top Pentagon officials on nonproliferation, agreed, noting that such portable weapons need to be maintained and updated, and degrade over time. He said Russia has struggled to maintain its conventional forces, let alone its atomic stockpile.
A FALLING OUT
Wagner was founded by Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, a former special forces officer in Russia’s GRU military intelligence. Cast as a private army, Wagner enabled Russia to dabble in wars in countries including Syria, Libya and Mali with full deniability. U.S. officials also say Prigozhin’s business operated a social media troll factory that interfered with the 2016 American presidential election. In recent days, Putin confirmed the Russian state financed Wagner. State television reported that Prigozhin’s operations had received more than 1.7 trillion roubles ($19 billion) from the Russian budget.
Prigozhin fired the opening salvo of his mutiny on June 23 when he accused the Russian military of launching a missile strike on a Wagner camp in Russian-occupied east Ukraine. Russia denied any such operation.
At least half a dozen sources inside and outside Russia say the conflict had been brewing for some time and that money and tensions between rival clans lay at its heart. For months, Prigozhin had been openly insulting Putin’s most senior military men, casting Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov as corrupt and incompetent and blaming them for reversals in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The insults went unanswered in public for a long time. Then Shoigu hit back. On June 10, he ordered Wagner fighters to sign contracts with his ministry agreeing to become part of the regular army by month’s end. Prigozhin refused. On June 13, Putin publicly sided with Shoigu. The state was moving to cut Wagner’s funding and this, the sources inside and outside Russia told Reuters, was the trigger for the mutiny.
In the early hours of June 24, Wagner forces arrived in the southern city of Rostov, an important command centre for Russia’s operations in Ukraine. Wagner took charge of the base there and within hours video emerged of Prigozhin chatting with Russian commanders. Around the same time, other contingents of Wagner forces struck out north, heading in the direction of Moscow along the M-4 highway.
Wagner fighters encountered little resistance.
Some Russian units that stood in their path or were instructed to intercept them did nothing, according to five sources: a Russian security source, three people close to the Kremlin, and a person close to the Russian-installed leadership in eastern Ukraine. The security source said two Russian military formations around the south-west of the country received orders to resist Wagner but they did not act on the command.
Some Russian units did nothing because they were taken by surprise and were outgunned, the sources said, while others stood by because they assumed, until Putin went on television at 10:00 a.m. Moscow time to denounce Prigozhin, that Wagner was acting on the Kremlin’s orders. The sources said some officers were reluctant to move against Wagner because they felt solidarity with the private army and shared Prigozhin’s disillusionment with the way the Defence Ministry top brass was running the war.
At the Bugayevka crossing between Ukraine and Russia, images posted by a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on the morning of June 24 showed dozens of Russian troops standing in line, unarmed. The caption said they had laid down their weapons.
Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, told Reuters that many in the Russian military sided with Prigozhin. “There are so many commanders who sympathise with Wagner and don’t want to follow Putin,” he said, adding that he knew of 14 Russian generals who supported Prigozhin. Reuters was not able to independently verify his account about the generals.
One branch of the Wagner force headed north along the M-4 highway, in the direction of Moscow. Their route took them right past Boguchar, a garrison town where a Russian unit is stationed. Three local residents who spoke to Reuters said that the military there did nothing to resist, and that a significant number of people in the town, including people serving in the military, felt sympathy with the Wagner force.
One woman said of Prigozhin: “Who else should we support? At least there’s one dignified person who was not frightened.” Another female resident also said Wagner had widespread support in the town, and that many Wagner fighters are from Boguchar. “They’re all friends,” she said.
A NUCLEAR DETOUR
As the main Wagner column advanced northwards towards Moscow, a group of military vehicles, and some civilian pickups and vans, turned eastwards. The moment is captured on a video posted on a Voronezh region news site. Reuters geo-located the video to a junction near the town of Pavlovsk. The breakaway contingent rumbled through villages and along a road that cut through patches of forest and flat farmland, skirting gulleys carved out by tributaries of the Don River.
A video posted on a local online bulletin board shows a field in the dawn light near the village of Elizavetovka on June 24. In the distance there is an explosion and gunfire, and panicked cries from a male voice: “Has a war started?”
Then a fresh round of automatic gunfire, closer this time.
Reuters spoke to the man’s neighbour, who said the Russian military had attacked the Wagner force. At 08:24 am, a user on the same online bulletin board, Anna Sandrakova, wrote: “Shells are flying, low-flying helicopters, we could hear explosions, automatic gunfire.” Maxim Yantsov, the local government chief for Pavlovsk district, wrote on his Telegram channel that 19 households were damaged as a result of shooting around Elizavetovka.
A few hours later, the convoy passed through another village, Vorontsovka, still moving in the direction of the nuclear facility. Two videos posted to Telegram show more than a dozen vehicles, including armoured personnel carriers, tanks and trucks mounted with machine guns or carrying artillery.
Next on the route, the convoy reached Buturlinovka, according to posts on the town’s online bulletin board and a video that Reuters identified as being recorded in the town. Buturlinovka, closer still to the nuclear facility, is the location of a military air base.
By Saturday evening, users on a VKontakte online forum started reporting the presence of a military column at the town of Talovaya, 110 km from the military base. A video shared by a local resident with Reuters shows a column of military vehicles moving through the outskirts of the town. A second video, provided by another resident, showed at least 75 vehicles in a convoy on the edge of the town, including 5 armoured personnel carriers, two ambulances, and an artillery gun towed behind a truck. A third resident said local people offered food and water to the Wagner troops. The situation was calm, he said, until a Russian helicopter fired at the column. It fired back and the helicopter fell to the ground, followed by explosions and a cloud of smoke.
Russian state media later broadcast video of a wooden cross erected at the site in Talovaya district where the helicopter, a Ka-52 attack aircraft, crashed. Pskov region governor Mikhail Vedernikov said the two crewmen who were killed were stationed at a military base in his region, in north-west Russia. “True to their oath, they did everything to protect our country,” he said in a video address posted on his Telegram channel.
Reuters couldn’t determine what the column did next. A resident of Talovaya said that as far as he was aware, it did not move any further and the following day – after the truce was announced – the column turned around and went back the way it came.
Budanov said in his interview that an unspecified number of fighters did in fact press on to Voronezh-45 with the intention of seizing portable, Soviet-era nuclear weapons stored at the facility.
The nuclear facility at Voronezh-45 is operated and guarded by military unit no. 14254, part of the defence ministry’s 12th Main Directorate responsible for protecting Russia’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, according to the Russian Defence Ministry’s website and publicly available records. What is stored there is a closely guarded secret. Russia does not publicly acknowledge even keeping nuclear weapons there; that information has emerged from the reports of foreign scientists.
Reuters was unable to establish if the backpack-sized nuclear charges referred to by Budanov are kept at the facility. But there is evidence that such devices were developed by the Soviet Union. In testimony to the U.S. Congress, in 1997 Alexei Yablokov, a former Russian presidential science advisor, said Soviet scientists in the 1970s created suitcase-sized nuclear munitions for use by secret agents.
Kristensen, the Federation of American Scientists researcher who said that Russia and the United States discarded thousands of suitcase-sized nukes in the 1990s, said that he doubts any remain stored Voronezh-45. He said he believes – but cannot be certain – that other nuclear weapons are stored at Voronezh-45, which satellite images show to be well-maintained.
Given the 12th Main Directorate’s control over the facility, the movement of weapons would take time and likely be detected by U.S. satellites, he added.
Further north, there is evidence that the Russian military undertook drastic measures to block off another potential access route to Voronezh-45. The E-38 road branches off the M-4 highway at a settlement called Rogachevka. This road also leads to Voronezh-45. On the evening of June 24, local residents reported hearing explosions. A video posted on a Telegram channel captured the sound of an aircraft followed by an explosion. A motorist driving along the E-38 posted a video that shows the road covered in debris near a bridge over the river Bityug. In one lane is a deep crater.
A DEAL IS STRUCK
On the evening of June 24 there was an unexpected announcement by Belarusian state media. The country’s president, Alexsandr Lukashenko, had negotiated Prigozhin’s agreement to halt his forces’ advances. Prigozhin said in an audio message that his forces had come within 125 miles of Moscow and were “turning around” to head back to their training camps. Under the deal, Russia would not prosecute the rebels and Wagner fighters would either withdraw to Belarus or join Russia’s regular army.
A European intelligence source said Prigozhin was persuaded to abandon his revolt after realising he didn’t have sufficient support amongst the military.
Prigozhin’s whereabouts and future plans are unclear.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Putin held talks with the Wagner leader on June 29 and “gave his assessment of the events” of June 24.
One of Prigozhin’s private jets has made multiple trips between Belarus and Russia in the days since the rebellion, according to flight tracking data.
When Belarusian president Lukashenko hosted a group of journalists in Minsk on July 6, he said Wagner’s fighters had yet to arrive at their new Belarusian base. “As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, he’s in St Petersburg. Or perhaps this morning he flew to Moscow. Or perhaps he’s somewhere else. But he’s not in Belarus,” Lukashenko said.
(Reporting by Mari Saito, Tom Balmforth, Sergiy Karazy and Anna Dabrowska in Kyiv, John Shiffman and Phil Stewart in Washington, Polina Nikolskaya in London, Maria Tsvetkova in New York, Anton Zverev, Christian Lowe in Paris, David Gauthier-Villars in Istanbul, Stephen Grey, Reade Levinson and Eleanor Whalley in London, Milan Pavicic and Daria Shamonova in Gdansk; edited by Janet McBride)
Degenerative disc disease treatment aims to minimize symptoms and prevent further disc degeneration. Damage to the disc cannot be reversed. The right treatment option may depend on the extent of deterioration.
Degenerative disc disease is caused by the wear of the shock-absorbing discs (intervertebral discs) between the spinal vertebrae. It can occur in any area of the spine. The symptoms of degenerative disc disease include back pain (especially when sitting), numbness and tingling in the hands or feet, and weakness in the legs.
This article will cover the different treatment options for degenerative disc disease, including conservative treatment and surgery.
Medication
Medication can minimize pain and inflammation in people with degenerative disc disease. It will not stop the progression of the condition, but decrease its symptoms.
Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs)
NSAIDs are medications that decrease inflammation and pain. They can relieve the associated back pain and decrease inflammation in the joints in those with degenerative disc disease.
Aspirin and Advil or Motrin (ibuprofen) are common over-the-counter (OTC) NSAIDs. Prescription NSAIDs include Nalfon (fenoprofen), ketoprofen, and sulindac.
Potential side effects of NSAIDs include ringing in the ears, dizziness, gas, bloating, constipation, and nervousness. People who are on blood thinners, have poor kidney function, or are pregnant should talk to their healthcare provider before taking an NSAID.
Nonnarcotic Pain Relievers
Tylenol (acetaminophen) is a common OTC pain reliever. Prescription nonnarcotic pain relievers may also be recommended by a healthcare provider.
Narcotic Medications
Narcotic pain medications may be prescribed by a healthcare provider when pain is moderate to severe.
Narcotics like codeine and morphine work in the central nervous system (CNS) to numb pain. While narcotics are an effective pain medication, they do carry many side effects. These include:
Constipation is a very common narcotic side effect. Talk to a healthcare provider about starting a stool softener or increasing dietary fiber.
Muscle Relaxants
If someone is having muscle spasms in their back then a muscle relaxant may be a good choice to help relieve pain and spasms. Common muscle relaxants include Soma (carisoprodol) and Flexeril (cyclobenzaprine).
Muscle relaxants should not be used long-term, but rather for just three to four days. There are serious side effects like depression and drowsiness.
Antidepressants
Antidepressants may be used to treat pain and poor sleep in people with degenerative disc disease. The chemical reactions in neurons that cause depression seem to be the same nerve pathways as pain.
Using an antidepressant may not be right for everyone, but can be helpful to regain a normal sleep routine due to back pain.
Physical Therapy
People with degenerative disc disease may benefit from physical therapy. The overall goal of physical therapy will be to decrease pain and improve muscle strength and flexibility. This will help the body support the spine and reduce pain and stiffness.
There are many different treatments used under the physical therapy umbrella. They may include:
Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS): The electrical stimulation from a TENS unit interferes with or blocks pain signals and can work for back pain.
Strength training: Strengthening the core can stabilize the spine and reduce back pain.
Improving flexibility: This can improve spine mobility and range of motion. Stretching also decreases back spasms.
Posture training: Poor posture contributes to back pain. A physical therapist can teach someone how to sit, stand, and move correctly.
Exercise
Regular exercise is an important component in maintaining spine health. Exercise strengthens back and abdominal muscles, which support the spine. A person with degenerative disc disease should talk to a healthcare provider before beginning an exercise routine. Ask if any motions (such as twisting) should be avoided.
Many types of exercise can be used, like weight training, aerobic exercise, and aquatic therapy, as follows:
Weight training combines weights with exercise and helps to prevent bone loss and strengthen muscles.
Aerobic exercise like walking, cycling, or running increases the heart rate and blood pressure while also releasing endorphins (the body’s natural pain relievers).
Aquatic therapy, or exercise in a pool, is an effective and low-impact aerobic exercise that is beneficial to people with degenerative disc disease. The water decreases pressure on the spine allowing the person to get the benefits of a workout without all the physical stress.
Chiropractic Care
Chiropractic care uses adjustments to the spine to correct improper alignments, reduce pain, and improve the body’s ability to heal itself. There is limited research on the effectiveness and safety of chiropractic care for people with degenerative disc disease, so it should be discussed with a healthcare provider before use.
Acupuncture
Acupuncture is a traditional Chinese medicine practice in which thin needles are inserted into the skin in different areas of the body. An acupuncturist will place the needles along meridians (traditional energy pathways). Acupuncture may improve healing by increasing blood flow or relieve pain by releasing endorphins.
Cold therapy works by applying an ice pack or cold towel to the painful area for 20 minutes at a time. The cold will interrupt the pain signal, thereby reducing pain. It will also cause the surrounding blood vessels to tighten, which will reduce swelling.
Heat can be used with a warm towel or heating pad. The heat will soothe sore muscles and dilate the surrounding blood vessels, which improves blood flow to the area.
Spine Injections
A steroid spine injection can reduce back pain and inflammation caused by degenerative disc disease. The injections use a combination of steroid medication and numbing medicine. Pain relief usually starts soon after the injection and lasts a few weeks to months.
Healthcare providers may limit the number of steroid injections a person can receive in a year. Too many can cause an infection or skin discoloration. Steroid injections are typically used when other conservative treatments are not successful.
Bracing
Another nonsurgical option for degenerative disc disease is a back brace. A back brace is a medical device that is wrapped around the lower back and secured with Velcro. The brace does not completely immobilize the back but does reduce the ability to move. It can stabilize the spine and reduce tension in people with degenerative disc disease.
Surgery
When degenerative disc disease does not respond to conservative treatment, surgery may be necessary. Below are the different surgical options that can be used.
Disc Replacement
Disc replacement is used in place of a spinal fusion in people under 65 years of age who have a herniated disc in the neck. An artificial disc is placed where the damaged disc is removed. One of the greatest benefits is that it allows flexibility and stability in the spine.
People who have a disc replacement can usually go home after one night in the hospital and can walk within 24 hours. They may need to wear a brace for support during the first few weeks after surgery.
Discectomy
A discectomy is a common surgery used in the treatment of degenerative disc disease. During the procedure, the injured part of the disc is removed. This alleviates pressure on the surrounding nerves by making room in the spinal canal.
Spinal Fusion
A spinal fusion is when a surgeon permanently joins the vertebrae to eliminate movement and stabilize parts of the spine. Spinal fusion may be necessary when there is a severely degenerated disc. It is sometimes done in conjunction with a discectomy and is more often done on the neck than the lower back.
A spinal fusion requires an overnight stay at the hospital. The patient may need to wear a brace after surgery and will need to minimize activity until their surgeon clears them.
How to Prevent Degenerative Disc Disease From Getting Worse
While preventing degenerative disc disease may not be possible, there are several ways to decrease the rate of degeneration. Here are a few steps that can be taken:
Stop smoking. Research shows that smoking increases the rate at which the intervertebral disc degenerates.
Exercise. Regular exercise will strengthen the back and core muscles that support the spine.
Maintain a healthy weight. People with elevated body mass index (BMI) have a higher likelihood of developing degenerative disc disease.
Summary
Degenerative disc disease is a progressive condition that results when the cushions in between the vertebrae wear down. There is no cure for the condition and treatment is aimed at reducing symptoms and preventing further degeneration. Current treatments include exercise, physical therapy, and in severe cases surgery. Talk to a healthcare provider to determine the best treatment route.
The worst thing for Russia’s economy isn’t Western sanctions. It’s Putin.
Phil Rosen – July 10, 2023
Vladimir Putin has steered the Russian economy to the brink of catastrophe.Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Vladimir Putin has crippled Russia’s economy to fund the war in Ukraine, experts tell Insider.
Experts say the official data from Moscow suggests it’s faring far better than it actually is.
The ruble has is crashing, the labor force has seen an exodus, and civil war remains possible.
The West has imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow since it launched its war on Ukraine last February, but much of Russia’s economic troubles can be chalked up to suspect and counterproductive leadership by Vladimir Putin.
Before the “special military operation” began, Russia was the 11th largest economy in the world, accounting for almost 40% of Europe Union’s natural gas imports and a quarter of its crude oil. A year and a half later, Putin’s turned Moscow into a pariah state, isolated from the global financial system, barred from its most lucrative trade routes, and in the midst of a worker brain drain. Experts say the damage has been largely self-inflicted.
Speaking with Insider on Monday, Yale researchers Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian said that Putin has lost the economic battle to a profound degree, and now he’s scrambling to maintain a status quo that’s quickly dissolving beneath his feet.
“He’s devouring core bedrock industries,” Sonnenfeld said. “The lion’s share of the economy is controlled by the state, the energy and financial sectors, and Putin is taking from the seed capital of those businesses to use as a cookie jar for his war chest.”
Trade will never be the same
Russia is barely breaking even on its energy trade, and most of its other top commodities like wheat, lumber, and metals sell cheaper today than before the invasion. The lack of trade income pushed Putin to levy draconian windfall taxes on businesses and individuals, which the Yale academics see as part of his “cannibalization” of the economy.
“Laying on onerous taxes is doing nothing for the economic health of the country, but they allow him to pay bills,” Sonnenfeld said.
Putin’s policy missteps became inevitable after he made the initial call to invade Ukraine, Tian said, adding that Russia’s trade status may never be the same. It’s become increasingly clear that other countries can get by just fine without Russia as a trading partner.
“He’s destroying the historical underpinnings of the Russian economy,” Tian said. “Its main exports have always been commodities, but now nobody needs to buy Russian commodities anymore.”
Yale data shared with Insider showed that Russia’s natural gas market in particular has been permanently lost.
The initial supply shock in February 2022 has quickly been overcome, with nearly 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas going online since then thanks to regasification projects commissioned across Europe. Germany has led nations including France, Netherlands, and Italy to develop new floating storage units that have come online in record time.
Russia’s LNG markets are permanently lost, according to Yale data. Gas production across other major exporters jumped following the invasion of Ukraine.Courtesy of Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
While China and India have stepped in as big buyers of cheap Russian crude since last year, steep discounts and lengthy shipping routes prevent those sales from propping up the Russian economy in a meaningful way.
“If Putin were on the call with us today, he couldn’t point to a single policy or economic positive for himself, the Russian people, or the economy,” Sonnenfeld said.
Potential for Soviet-style collapse
Volodymyr Lugovskyy, an economics professor at Indiana University, told me he expects to see a dramatic economic change within the next three or four months.
“Many people still don’t realize how bad the situation in Russia might be,” he said.
Official government data point to an economy that’s been able to withstand the costs of war, but under-the-hood numbers like retail sales, flight purchases, and business activity suggest otherwise.
“Things are much worse than the reported 2% drop in GDP,” Lugovskyy said. “Sales of new cars, sales of new computers, those dropped by 40% to 60%. And if you remove military activity from the data, production looks far worse [than reported].”
The country’s currency in particular looks vulnerable. After the Wagner Group’s attempted mutiny in June, the ruble crashed to a 15-month low. On Monday, it hovered just above 90 per dollar, but that could weaken to 149 per dollar, in Lugovskyy’s view.
A change in power, civil war, or another attempt at mutiny, the professor maintained, could drag on the exchange rate and ultimately lead to the collapse of the economy.
“Russia might collapse into multiple pieces, like the Soviet Union, and that might not be a bad thing for the world,” Lugovskyy said. “It’s resembling an empire right now, with a central power. Extreme events are highly possible.”
Toxic algae that can cause lung infections and neurological disorders is taking over a giant lake in Florida, and ecologists say the bloom will only grow
Katie Hawkinson – July 9, 2023
More than half of Lake Okeechobee is covered in algae blooms.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Florida’s Lake Okeechobee is already half full with toxic algae, and the bloom will only grow.
Fumes from the algae can cause several health complications, like lung infections.
Climate warming and pollutant run-off from nearby crops help it thrive, experts say.
The largest freshwater lake in Florida, which is a draw for fishing and boating in the summer months, likely won’t see many faces this year.
That’s because Lake Okeechobee is already half-full with a bright green, toxic algae that researchers say will only grow as algae season continues on through the summer. The algae can cause several health complications, including lung infections, organ damage, and neurological disorders, The New York Times reports.
Experts told the Times the severity of this year’s bloom is, in large part, due to the warming climate that has resulted in increased rainfall and rising levels of carbon dioxide, which the algae feeds on. The algae also thrives among the fertilizer and manure that runs into the lake from nearby crops.
This is not a new problem for Florida. In 2018, former Governor Rick Scott declared a state of emergency across seven counties in an effort to combat the same toxic algae in Lake Okeechobee that was also inundating a nearby river.
Finding a solution to this toxic bloom has been a challenge.
Florida plans to build a reservoir to stop the algae from flowing out of the lake and into other bodies of water — though the Times reports that the reservoir would fill to capacity after depleting Okeechobee by only six inches.
Environmentalists are also calling on the state of Florida to implement rules limiting the run-off of pollutants from nearby crops that feed the algae, the Times reports.
This policy would take decades to make a large impact, thanks to the phosphorous-rich sediment already present in the lake.
Las Vegas Valley is making major changes to its landscape to keep up with its fast-growing population — here’s what’s happening
Mary Swansburg – July 9, 2023
The Las Vegas Valley is working with its citizens to help them ditch their grassy yards and embrace Nevada’s natural landscape instead.
The news was shared in an article by ProPublica that was reposted on Reddit.
Photo Credit: u/WhoIsJolyonWest / Reddit
The effort will conserve water and allow the population in Vegas to continue growing.
Community members have already done their part to conserve water indoors, and Nevada treats and recycles all indoor water. Outdoor water, however, cannot be recycled in the same way because it evaporates or settles into the ground.
Because of this, the state is turning toward grass reduction because growing grass in the desert climate requires a significant amount of water.
A similar plan has been utilized before and helped the conservation effort, but it encountered some pushback from homeowner associations (HOAs.) Also, some citizens want to preserve the aesthetic of green lawns, so the state is making an effort to find a compromise.
The state is targeting “nonfunctional” grass first, like grass that lines roadways and lakes, with the goal to get rid of all of it by 2027. Citizens upset about grass removal can submit an exemption request — many of which are approved — making the pushback from HOAs minimal.
In addition, some companies like Par 3 Landscape and Maintenance are offering ideas for alternative plantlife that is native to the area, such as evergreens and desert-friendly shrubs.
Families that choose to embrace the natural landscape will lower their water bills while leaving resources for the addition of new residents and businesses. On top of that, they’ll be helping to fight rising global temperatures.
Princeton reported that 800 million gallons of gasoline, which releases planet-warming gases, are used by lawn equipment each year, and an additional 17 million gallons are spilled in the process.
Plus, the Natural Resource Defense Council reported that lawns are responsible for consuming almost three trillion gallons of water each year. And when grass is grown outside of its natural habitat, it doesn’t benefit the local wildlife either.
One Redditor echoed this in the comments. “Lawns do NOT belong in the southwest,” they wrote.
Luckily, the Las Vegas Valley is setting a great example for communities looking to conserve water.
“If everyone else takes on similar initiatives, we’ll be able to sustain our community and communities across the Colorado River Basin for future generations,” said Howard Watts, Nevada state representative.
Investigation Uncovers More of Clarence Thomas’ Undisclosed Freebies from Wealthy Pals
Peter Wade – July 9, 2023
Clarence Thomas’ connections to wealth and expensive vacations run deeper than billionaire businessman and Nazi-enthusiast Harlan Crow. The New York Times reports that Thomas has milked relationships with the rich he made through the Horatio Alger Association of Distinguished Americans, a scholarship association, to benefit himself and his wife.
Because of their Horatio Alger connections, Thomas and his spouse, Virginia, have been invited to join luxurious vacations and parties in addition being granted V.I.P. access to sports events. Thanks to the association, Thomas also rubbed elbows with the likes of Oprah Winfrey and Ed McMahon during a lavish three-day Montana birthday party for billionaire industrialist Dennis Washington.
But the connections Thomas made through Horatio Alger have benefitted him beyond lavish trips. Thomas’ Horatio Alger contacts — including Washington as well as investor David Sokol, formerly of Berkshire Hathaway — helped fund a documentary that painted him in a heroic light after the premiere of an HBO movie that depicted Anita Hill during his confirmation hearings making sexual harassment allegations against Thomas. The Sokol family also hosted Thomas and his wife at their Montana ranch and their waterfront Florida estate. According to the Times, Thomas has not reported many of the benefits and gifts he has received from his rich and well-connected allies. The justice also declined to answer questions from the paper about the matter.
Early in his SCOTUS tenure, Thomas did report a number of personal gifts he received, including flights on private planes, cigars, and clothing. But after 2004, when TheLos Angeles Times reported on his disclosures, Thomas ceased reporting to the court certain gifts and benefits he received. A ProPublica investigation in 2023 uncovered the justice’s close relationship with Crow, a GOP megadonor with a large collection of Nazi memorabilia and Hitler paintings, including trips on Crow’s private jet and yacht totaling tens of thousands and Crow’s purchase of the house where Thomas’ mother lived. Crow even paid tuition for Thomas’ nephew, who the Thomases were raising. After his relationship with Crow came to light, Thomas justified his lack of disclosures, claiming that “colleagues and others in the judiciary” advised him he did not need to report trips of “personal hospitality” from friends.
Thomas has not only accepted benefits that granted him access to places he otherwise may not have gone, he also hosts the Horatio Alger Association’s induction ceremony for new members in the Supreme Court’s courtroom, which the Times notes is “unusual access” for an outside group. The association has parlayed the access Thomas gives them to fundraise for scholarships and events, per fundraising records reviewed by the Times.
The court this year updated its disclosure rules to mandate justices report private jet travel and comped stays at hotels and resorts, but there is an exception for “personal hospitality,” meaning food, accommodations, or entertainment that is not related to business.
“The Horatio Alger Association has been a home to Virginia and me,” Thomas said when he received the association’s highest honor in 2010, adding that the association “has allowed me to see my dreams come true.”
If his dreams were of undisclosed fancy vacations and V.I.P. access, then that’s probably the case.
Staying active and healthy – here are some key points to stay fit as you get older
Brandon Brown, Portsmouth Herald – July 8, 2023
Peter Hubbard, 85, spots his wife, Nona, 61, during a recent weight-lifting workout. Both will compete at the Powerlifting America New Hampshire State Championship at The Lift Free or Die Gym in Dover starting at 9 a.m.
Peter Hubbard, an 85-year-old Candia resident, is a big advocate for physical activity, especially as people age.
“There’s lots of research and data that shows that as you grow older, you’re going to lose muscle density and mass, but you can maintain it better through exercise,” Hubbard said. “It’s been proven that exercise improves your life expectancy, it gives you the ability to do things when you get older that you wouldn’t be able to do. You don’t have to lift all these heavy weights, and I don’t expect everybody to go out and try to be a powerlifter, but if you continue to work out and lift weights, then you can live into you 60s, 70s and 80s, and you’re going to have a better quality of life.
This Sunday, Hubbard will compete in the Powerlifting America New Hampshire State Championship at The Lift Free or Die Gym in Dover starting at 9 a.m.
Though there are three events – the squat, the bench-press and the deadlift, Hubbard is only participating in the bench-press. Hubbard’s goal is to bench more than 200 pounds. Hubbard’s wife, Nona, 61, will participate in all three events.
Although preparation for such a competition takes at least three months, Hubbard is in the gym and keeps up with physical activity year-round.
Hubbard is a role model for how to keep your body strong and fit as you enter your golden years.
Caroline Schepker, doctor at Wentworth-Douglass
It’s never too late to get physically fit
The aging process, realistically, begins in the late 20s and doesn’t become noticeable for most people until their 40s or 50s, said Dr. Caroline A. Schepker, a physiatrist who specializes in physical medicine and rehabilitation and sports medicine at Wentworth-Douglass Hospital in Dover.
“It’s usually around the age where people start to notice that they feel a little bit stiffer, maybe a little bit more easily aching, and look like they’ve lost a little muscle mass,” she said. “The best time to start prevention wise is in your 20s and 30s and kind of maximizing your muscle mass and your mobility.”
Additionally, Schepker said it’s never too late to start with things such as mobility training and strength training.
“And what that could look like is working with either a physical therapist or athletic trainer, or personal trainer to develop a whole body strength and conditioning program that also works on mobility, which is just flexibility and range of motion,” Schepker added.
“The general prescription of physical activity, whether it’s in a sport or just going to the gym or doing your own independent exercise, there’s three categories to it,” Schepker said. “One is aerobic exercise, also known as cardiovascular exercise, the second is resistance training or strength training and the third is flexibility and balance; they kind of put those three together.”
From a fitness standpoint, an ideal week involves two to three days, or 150 total minutes of aerobic exercise, at least two days a week with strength training and at least two days a week with range of motion exercises.
The most common problem Schepker sees is pain, and mostly coming from the spine and lower back, and secondly the hips, knees and shoulders.
“What that usually comes down to is a relative lack of core strength conditioning,” she said. “Even very fit active people can lose touch with their core muscles and how to optimally activate them to stabilize their spine. It can really irritate the little joints and discs in the back. So that’s probably what I see in the older, more active athletic population.”
Stretching or no stretching?
Schepker said stretching is actually one of the topics that can be controversial.
“If you really look into the research to stretching, some people say stretch and some people say don’t,” she said. “I think the reason why it’s complicated is because it’s not just stretching, but also mobility and range of motion exercises; they all have their place.”
Schepker said the research and studies shows that the recommendation is that as people get older, connective tissues, such as tendons and ligaments, naturally start to stiffen.
“Our joints generally get a little stiffer, and we lose range of motion, so it becomes important to do some stretching or range of motion medicine,” she said.
While daily is preferred, the American College of Sports Medicine recommends that adults who are 65 and older stretch at least three times per week.
“And what they recommend for that is really performing stretches of all major muscle groups, meaning the muscle groups that surround the hips, the trunk spine, shoulders and holding stretches for at least 10 to 30 seconds,” Schepker said. “Bigger muscles, like the hamstrings, may require up to 60 seconds. But, holding a stretch is called static stretching and that’s generally done after physical activity or kind of in isolation. Whereas before physical activity, it’s more important to do more kind of active range of motion instead of static holds of stretching.”
Schepker said active range of motion includes things like gently moving joints through their range of motions.
“Things like arm circles, arm swings, hip circles, just kind of getting all the joints through their range,” Schekper said.
How should ages 65 and older approach physical activity
Below is a chart that outlines what the American Heart Association and ACSM recommends for frequency, intensity and types of training for those 65 and older.
Physical Activity Recommendation Chart
“Some older adults who have athletic or fitness backgrounds may feel comfortable looking at those guidelines and kind of being independent with them,” Schepker said. “For those who have questions or concerns about how to incorporate any piece of it, whether it’s the aerobic aspect, or the strength training, or the flexibility or the balance, usually the best place to start is speaking with your doctor and/or working with a physical therapist or athletic trainer.”
Schepker said working with a physical therapist or an athletic trainer is a good way to develop a program for themselves and get comfortable with some of the concepts to where they can branch off to do it independently.
Tensions between the West and China show no sign of easing. Interdependence and mistrust continue to mix uneasily. Triggers are many and varied including; human rights, relations with Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine, microchip manufacturing and the big one, Taiwan.
Then there is the rhetoric. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Beijing for talks aimed at easing some of these tensions. It’s ironic, but not unprecedented, that at the exact same time, President Xi is telling the troops of the Eastern Theatre Command – the one that faces Taiwan – that they need to step up their combat readiness and “… persist in thinking and handling military issues from a political perspective, dare to fight, be good at fighting, and resolutely defend our national sovereignty, security, and development interests.”
This is not the first time Xi has timed an info-ops stunt like this to coincide with a diplomatic visit and neither is he the first Chinese President to do it.
Hu Jintao did something similar in 2011 telling his military to “make extended preparations for warfare”. It has happened many times since. One can make a case that this constant need to posture in this way masks a lack of confidence.
Xi’s military numbers and rate of build might be eyewatering but what experience underpins them? Russia’s efforts in Ukraine have shown repeatedly that spectacular parades do not equate to hardened fighting competence. His message is timed with Yellen’s visit to create maximum international effect but internally it is as likely to be a kick aimed at his generals than an immediate call to arms.
In the longer term, is war with China inevitable? General Mike Minihan of the US Air Force says it is; a hawkish stance that I suspect is shared by quite a few in the US military. But, as is the way, there are plenty who believe that the situation will continue to be managed by ongoing diplomatic efforts and the deterrent effect of our combined militaries.
Certainly, the ongoing importance of both conventional and nuclear deterrence cannot be underestimated right now. This, coupled with maximum diplomatic effort, soft and hard, should sit alongside military operations and exercises designed to demonstrate what it could look like if these efforts fail.
One thing we can be sure of is that US Pacific Command will be planning for all ‘fighting’ eventualities with a high degree of granularity. Having been part of a US led contingency plan myself (thankfully not one that was put into action in my time) I know that the level of detail that goes into American wargaming is exceptional and the algorithms they use to determine levels of damage and casualties are sophisticated.
Having said that, the quirk of taking a kicking from Enemy X during a wargame but then telling the General in the final debrief that ‘we issued a beat down’ was interesting to watch from close up. Nevertheless, PACOM’s planning for a war with China will be reassuringly comprehensive.
So what for the UK? Well, we will feature in the plan. Somewhere in the chapter marked ‘assets’ will be what we could offer in a ‘fight tonight’. That’s zero right now, with apologies to HMS Tamar and HMS Spey, the almost unarmed patrol vessels which are all we have in the Indo-Pacific area at the moment. Then there’s what ‘best effort’ would look like if we sent everything we have across Defence, and a reasonable middle ground with associated deployment timelines.
We Brits will be a footnote in terms of overall combat power with two exceptions. Our aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth (with a full outfit of US/allied jets) would be a noticeable piece on the game board if she was out there.
Secondly our nuclear powered attack submarines, armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, are a threat to worry any Chinese admiral. There will be other areas where we can contribute such as intelligence, cyber, special forces etc, but the carrier and the submarines will be front and centre of the conventional plan.
In QE and the Astute class submarines, we have cutting-edge capabilities. The carrier herself has redundancy (which has proven useful recently with HMS Prince of Wales in drydock to replace a broken shaft) but everything beneath that is wafer thin: we have very few F-35 jets to put aboard her, very few escort ships to send with her and not enough ammunition (including Tomahawks), support helicopters or supporting logistic ships.
Much of this will be ameliorated by operating in the sort of allied task group that would be assembled for a fight like this but every time you have to put a star by your asset (*needs US support) you degrade your usefulness until eventually they look at you across the room and ask ‘are you in this or not?’ This is happening.
And, of course, neither of those assets are there right now. HMS Queen Elizabeth made a significant impression during her 2021 deployment there but isn’t due back until 2025. Similarly, our attack subs are already fully assigned elsewhere. Someone will have worked out how quickly both these things could get there but it isn’t ‘soon’.
The Aukus alliance between us, the US and Australia is an outstanding political and military collaboration but is going to take an age to come online and a lot could happen in that time. There has however been talk of sending one of our submarines to the Indo-Pacific early.
If this happens, and is coordinated with US attack submarine deployments to the region, and we buy more Tomahawks, then that would be a significant UK contribution to both deterrence and the fight. There are a lot of unfunded assumptions in there though.
More broadly, the Integrated Review Refresh is complete and still suitably ambiguous as to whether Continental Europe, the North Atlantic or the Indo-Pacific should constitute ‘main effort’. All eyes are therefore on the imminent Defence Command and Balance of Investment Papers to allocate resources to these areas and thus provide some answers.
While this turn of the handle won’t have the slash-and-burn effect of the 2010 process there also won’t be any more money: probably less in real terms. We remain almost the only country in Europe steadfastly opposed to increasing Defence expenditure just now.
Meanwhile, the situation in Taiwan feels like a ‘circling press aircraft’. Let me explain.
I was in a naval exercise off the north of Scotland some time ago when a light aircraft claiming that it was neutral and full of press approached the ship. We spoke to it and then ‘warned’ it ranging from ‘hello who are you?’ to ‘turn away now or you will be fired on’.
Then at the range where the Rules of Engagement would have allowed me to start shooting, five miles, it turned 90 degrees and started circling the ship. We carried on talking to it and reading ‘warnings’ but they protested, stated their peaceful intentions and continued to circle. But now they were at four miles. My bluff had been called. We had intelligence to suggest a light aircraft threat but they weren’t closing us directly and so we were not allowed to engage. Now they were at three.
It was a brilliant scenario, because when do you pull the trigger?
This is what is happening with China and Taiwan. China continues to circle, getting ever closer but never pointing directly at the target. Aggressive exercises, encircling, drone overflights and encroachments will continue until they become ‘normal’, then they will tighten a little more.
My working theory is that they will keep closing in and wait for a natural disaster such as an earthquake or tsunami to provide cover for a final move under cover of Humanitarian and Disaster Relief. It’s hard to say ‘no’ to assistance and before you know it Chinese presence on Taiwan has also become ‘normal’. I could be wrong. I hope I’m not because many of the alternatives are far, far worse.
In the meantime, the diplomatic, information and deterrent efforts from both sides will continue apace. Xi will carry on building equipment and posturing aggressively and the West will continue to try and decide where to sit between appeasement, essential cooperation and aggression.
The UK will continue to contribute where it can, whilst hoping that no one notices the smallness of the stick with which we are walking softly.
To finish the story, I was out of ideas with the ‘press aircraft’ until I heard our American exchange officer in the Operations Room. He was a little bemused when I put my headset on him and told him to say, ‘turn away or we will fire on you’ but did as we was asked.
There was then a five-second pause before a new voice appeared on the radio, “British warship, this is the aircraft pilot. Can I just check this is still an exercise?”
Kremlin expands surveillance on Russians’ music and taxi journeys
James Kilner – July 8, 2023
Vladimir Putin has ramped up surveillance of his people as he battles to crush dissent – AFP
The Kremlin will soon begin restricting Russians’ music playlists and tracking their taxi journeys in real time as it ramps up state surveillance two weeks after a failed rebellion.
Yandex Music, Russia’s most popular music streaming service, has said it will create a “safe environment” by blocking “dangerous” content, a move that activists have criticised.
“Recommendations on music services are nothing more than the automation of censorship using algorithms,” said Sarkis Darbinyan, a lawyer at Russian Roskom Svoboda which is a Russian NGO.
The music streaming service is part of the Yandex group of companies. Once dubbed the “Russian Google”, Yandex provides Russians with navigation tools, internet searches, a taxi-hailing app, food delivery services and everything else in between.
But analysts have also said that the Kremlin uses Yandex to spy on Russians and spread its propaganda. Part of this propaganda has been to promote pro-war singers and sideline anti-war artists but this is the first time that it will impose restrictions on people’s music choices.
To ‘protect’ listeners
Yandex Music said that the restrictions were designed to protect listeners from racist and Nazi-themed songs but Ms Darbinyan from Roskomsvoboda said that this was just a smokescreen.
“Musicians who have declared their civil and anti-war position have already essentially been thrown off the Russian stage, forbidden to perform and to earn their bread,” she said. “Now, I’m afraid this practice of blacklisting will affect all Russian streaming platforms.”
The Kremlin has banned parts of the internet including YouTube, while Spotify and other Western music streaming services stopped operating in Russia after the Russian invasion last year.
The new restrictions came after Vladimir Putin faced down a mutiny two weeks ago by his former mercenary commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, and analysts have said he needs to reimpose his authority.
And this means more censorship and more power for his favoured FSB intelligence agency.
Round-the-clock access to data
On Friday, the Russian government said that it had given the FSB the right to monitor people’s movements on taxi aggregation services.
Russian opposition media described the new taxi censorship laws as effectively giving the FSB “24/7 remote access” to passenger data.
One of the FSB’s main roles is to monitor the Russian population for any signs of dissent, and the Wall Street Journal has now reported that foreigners fall under an intensified surveillance operation.
It said that a special FSB unit called the DKRO monitors foreign nationals that enter Russia.
They also often play intimidatory mind games such as breaking into hotel rooms or apartments, moving bookcases and leaving smoked cigarette butts in bathrooms and faeces in suitcases, the newspaper reported.
