January 2023 – Page 13 – The Tarbabys Blog

Warning about aquifer’s decline sets up big fight in Kansas

Associated Press

Warning about aquifer’s decline sets up big fight in Kansas

John Hanna – January 6, 2023

Lee Reeve poses for a photo at the cattle feedyard and ethanol plant operated by his family Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, near Garden City, Kan. Reeve sees language by the Kansas Water Authority on controlling groundwater use in western Kansas as "toxic,"as the Kansas Legislature looks to take up ways to address depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer in the upcoming session. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel) — Lee Reeve poses for a photo at the cattle feedyard and ethanol plant operated by his family Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, near Garden City, Kan. Reeve sees language by the Kansas Water Authority on controlling groundwater use in western Kansas as “toxic,”as the Kansas Legislature looks to take up ways to address depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer in the upcoming session. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

A discarded couch litters the dry bed of the Arkansas River Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, near Garden City, Kan. The river in western Kansas is mostly dry after decades of extensive groundwater use and periodic droughts. Lawmakers are looking to take up groundwater issues in western Kansas in the upcoming session as the Kansas Water Authority is urging stricter usage measures to try to slow the steady decline of water levels in the Ogallala Aquifer. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Kansas Geological Survey field research technician Connor Umbrell measures water levels in an irrigation well Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, near Marienthal, Kan. Lawmakers are looking to take up groundwater issues in western Kansas in the upcoming session as the Kansas Water Authority is urging stricter usage measures to try to slow the steady decline of water levels in the Ogallala Aquifer. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) — Kansas water experts are sounding an alarm decades in the making: Farmers and ranchers in the state’s western half must stop pumping more water out of a vast aquifer than nature puts back each year or risk the economic collapse of a region important to the U.S. food supply.

That warning is setting up a big and messy fight for the annual session of the Kansas Legislature set to open Monday.

The Kansas Water Authority is telling lawmakers that Kansas needs to break sharply with its decadeslong policy of slowing depletion while still allowing water levels to drop in the Ogallala Aquifer. The aquifer covers roughly 175,000 square miles (453,000 square kilometers) in the western and Great Plains states of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming and South Dakota.

Most of those states have areas where depletion is a problem, but the call in Kansas to “halt” the declines has farmers, ranchers and politically influential agriculture groups preparing to battle proposals that would give them less control over water and possibly could force them to cultivate fewer acres, buy expensive new equipment or turn on a dime to grow different crops.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-10-1/html/r-sf-flx.html

Imposing the Water Authority’s policy means agribusinesses that drive the region’s economy would have to consume less water — perhaps as much as 30% less in some areas. Lawmakers also would have to decide whether local officials would keep driving conservation efforts or if the state would be in charge.

“The easy part was making the statement. That didn’t cost anybody anything,” said Clay Scott, who farms in southwestern Kansas. “We’re going to have to start paying for it, and we have to decide how that gets divvied up.”

Kansas produces more than 20% of the nation’s wheat and has about 18% of the cattle being fed in the U.S. The western third of Kansas, home to most of its portion of the Ogallala, accounts for 60% of the value of all Kansas crops and livestock. That’s possible because of the water.

The recommendation on the Ogallala from the water authority, a planning and advisory commission, is a response to data showing that since widespread pumping began around 1940, much of the Ogallala has lost at least 30% of its available water and more than 60% in places in western Kansas. The Kansas Geological Survey had a team in western Kansas this week to measure well depths for updated figures.

“There are wells that are starting to run dry already, so this isn’t a distant problem in some areas,” said Tom Buller, executive director of the Kansas Rural Center, a nonprofit that promotes sustainable agriculture and family farming. “There isn’t a lot of time to solve the problem.”

The Water Authority’s recommendation comes as much of the western U.S. continues to suffer through a megadrought fueled by climate change. Parts of Kansas have had drought conditions for a year, and more than half the state has been in extreme drought since mid-September.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is currently working on a plan to cut water use from the Colorado River in western states by 15%, and Arizona is restricting large-scale farming. Nebraska last year launched a $500 million canal project to divert water from the South Platte River in Colorado.

“We are told that the future, due to climate change, is going to get warmer and drier in western Kansas,” said Connie Owen, director of the Kansas Water Office, which oversees long-term plans for preserving water. “That is making things worse, which is all the more reason that we have to deal with this now.”

There’s broad agreement, including among powerful agriculture groups and nervous farmers and ranchers, that Kansas needs to extend the aquifer’s life.

But the path forward isn’t yet clear for Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly and the Republican-controlled Legislature.

In a pre-session interview, Kelly promised only to get affected parties together to negotiate a comprehensive solution. She added that following her narrow reelection in November, “I’ve got some political capital to spend to deal with what will be a very contentious issue.”

Depletion of the Ogallala was one reason that in the Kansas House, the Water Committee last year considered a 283-page bipartisan proposal to set aside $49 million a year for conservation efforts and other programs. The measure also would have reorganized those programs and made the official who grants rights to use water independent of the state Department of Agriculture. In addition, it would have curbed the power of big irrigators in local districts that manage groundwater use, including from the Ogallala.

Opponents included the Kansas Farm Bureau and the Kansas Livestock Association. Nothing ultimately passed after critics accused supporters of drafting it largely in secret. The committee’s chair later retired.

The new Water Committee chair, Republican Rep. Jim Minnix, a southwestern Kansas farmer, said he hopes to work on incentives for local officials to be more aggressive about water conservation.

The state allows local districts to set restrictions, and one in northwest Kansas gets high marks from water experts and officials for cutting water use. In one area of 99 square miles (256 square kilometers), it set water-use rules, sought to cut consumption 20% and reduced it 35% over the past decade, according to Manager Shannon Kenyon.

Kenyon prizes local control but said the state should take charge where local officials haven’t pursued enough conservation.

If local officials allow the water dry up, she said, “They are going to kill the economy in the state of Kansas,” Kenyon said.

Some western Kansas farmers argue that the state’s best move is to ramp up education about ways to conserve water and provide incentives to help farmers adopt them. Several of them, as well as local water officials, said agriculture has become more careful with water over the past several decades through new technology, new crop varieties and better farming practices.

Lee Reeve, whose family has farmed near Garden City in southwest Kansas for more than 100 years and now operates a cattle feed yard and ethanol plant, sees the Water Authority’s language on halting depletion as “toxic,” noting that farmers already are suspicious of government programs.

“There’s just enough of this scare stuff out there that it’s hard to get through to people that, ‘Hey, there are things we can do,’” he said.

Germ Experts Share How Often You Should Really Be Washing Your Sheets

Parade

Germ Experts Share How Often You Should Really Be Washing Your Sheets

Emily Laurence – January 6, 2023

It’s probably more often than you think.

A recent survey conducted in the UK found that almost half of single men wash their sheets once every four months. How do your bed linen habits compare? Maybe you aren’t quite as neglectful as these bachelors and are in the habit of washing your sheets once a month. Or maybe you don’t have a set schedule; you can just tell when it’s time.

According to germ experts (yep, they exist), it’s important to wash your sheets regularly. Otherwise, you’ll be sleeping in a bed of bacteria—literally. But how often should you really change your sheets? Keep reading to find out.

How Often Should You Wash Your Sheets?

While there aren’t any scientific studies on people’s bed linens at home, Dr. Charles Gerba, PhD., a professor of virology in the Department of Environmental Science at The University of Arizona, says that there have been studies of sheets in hospitals. Dr. Gerba says that these studies have found that bacteria from the human skin is transferred to bedding and about one-third of this bacteria is fecal bacteria (E.coli). “Fungi also appears to be common,” he adds.

“Sheets are a great place for bacteria to reside and grow. All they need are water and food, which our bodies provide,” says Jason Tetro, a scientist and author of The Germ Files. If you go too long without washing your sheets, Tetro says that the bacteria will continue to grow, which could then potentially lead to skin irritation and possibly infection.

Tetro says that in a laboratory, bacteria can multiply as quickly as every 20 minutes. In the real world, he says it takes several hours. With this in mind, Tetro recommends washing your sheets every two weeks. If you tend to sweat in bed or eat in bed, both experts recommend washing them even more often. “What matters more is the amount of bacteria transferred—the inoculum if you wish,” Tetro says. “If you are not sweating much, the inoculum won’t be too significant from night to night and two weeks should be sufficient. If you tend to sweat a significant amount, then the nightly inoculum goes up and you may want to clean them every week.”

Interestingly, Tetro says that polyester has been found to hold more bacteria than cotton. “It also took in more of the body’s natural secretions meaning the bacteria would be able to grow to higher numbers,” he adds. So if your sheets are made of polyester, you may want to wash your sheets more often.

What About Pillowcases, Blankets and Comforters?

You may want to wash your pillowcases even more often than you wash your sheets. Dr. Gerba says that’s where most bacteria and fungi are found.

As for comforters, duvets and throw blankets, Tetro says that anything that comes in direct contact with the skin regularly should be washed as frequently as your sheets. But if your throw blankets or comforter is coming into contact with the sheets instead of your skin, he says they can be washed less frequently, roughly once a month.

Even with all this in mind, if you’re still debating whether or not you should throw your bed linens in the wash, Tetro says to give them a sniff. “One can never discount the smell test,” he says. “Bacteria tend to stink once they get to high enough numbers. If your sheets—and clothes for that matter—tend to have an odor, then there’s a good likelihood that there’s a high bacterial count and a wash may be needed.”

Put this advice into practice and you’ll be able to sleep easy. (And maybe pass the info along to the single men in your life too.)

Next up, check out these viral TikTok cleaning hacks that actually work.

Sources

Dr. Charles Gerba, PhD., a professor of virology in the Department of Environmental Science at The University of Arizona
Jason Tetro, scientist, author of The Germ Files, and host of the Super Awesome Science Show podcast

Great Salt Lake on track to disappear in five years, scientists warn

The Washington Post

Great Salt Lake on track to disappear in five years, scientists warn

Sarah Kaplan and Brady Dennis, Washington Post – January 6, 2023

MAGNA, UTAH – AUGUST 02: Park visitors walk along a section of the Great Salt Lake that used to be underwater at the Great Salt Lake State Park on August 02, 2021 near Magna, Utah. As severe drought continues to take hold in the western United States, water levels at the Great Salt Lake, the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere, have dropped to the lowest levels ever recorded. The lake fell below 4194.4 feet in the past week after years of decline from its highest level recorded in 1986 with 4211.65 feet. Further decline of the lake’s water levels could result in an increase in water salinity and could generate dust from the exposed lakebed that could impact air quality in the area. The lake does not supply water or generate electricity for nearby communities but it does provide a natural habitat for migrating birds and other wildlife. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 99 percent of Utah is experiencing extreme drought conditions. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) (Justin Sullivan via Getty Images)

Without dramatic cuts to water consumption, Utah’s Great Salt Lake is on track to disappear within five years, a dire new report warns, imperiling ecosystems and exposing millions of people to toxic dust from the drying lake bed.

The report, led by researchers at Brigham Young University and published this week, found that unsustainable water use has shrunk the lake to just 37 percent of its former volume. The West’s ongoing mega-drought – a crisis made worse by climate change – has accelerated its decline to rates far faster than scientists had predicted.

But current conservation measures are critically insufficient to replace the roughly 40 billion gallons of water the lake has lost annually since 2020, the scientists said.

The report calls on Utah and nearby states to curb water consumption by a third to a half, allowing 2.5 million acre feet of water to flow from streams and rivers directly into the lake for the next couple of years. Otherwise, it said, the Great Salt Lake is headed for irreversible collapse.

“This is a crisis,” said Brigham Young University ecologist Ben Abbott, a lead author of the report. “The ecosystem is on life support, [and] we need to have this emergency intervention to make sure it doesn’t disappear.”

Scientists and officials have long recognized that water in the Great Salt Lake watershed is overallocated, – more water has been guaranteed to people and businesses than falls as rain and snow each year.

Agriculture accounts for more than 70 percent of the state’s water use – much of it going to grow hay and alfalfa to feed livestock. Another 9 percent is taken up by mineral extraction. Cities use another 9 percent to run power plants and irrigate lawns.

There are so many claims on the state’s rivers and streams that, by the time they reach the Great Salt Lake, there’s very little water left.

Over the last three years, the report says, the lake has received less than a third of its normal stream flow because so much water has been diverted for other purposes. In 2022, its surface sank to a record low, 10 feet below what is considered a minimum healthy level.

With less freshwater flowing in, the lake has grown so salty that it’s becoming toxic even to the native brine shrimp and flies that evolved to live there, Abbott said. This in turn endangers the 10 million birds that rely on the lake for a rest stop as they migrate across the continent each year.

The vanishing lake may short-circuit the weather system that cycles rain and snow from the lake to the mountains and back again, depriving Utah’s storied ski slopes. It threatens a billion-dollar industry extracting magnesium, lithium and other critical minerals from the brine.

It has also exposed more than 800 square miles of sediments laced with arsenic, mercury and other dangerous substances, which can be picked up by wind and blown into the lungs of some 2.5 million people living near the lakeshore.

“Nanoparticles of dust have potential to cause just as much harm if they come from dry lake bed as from a tailpipe or a smokestack,” said Brian Moench, president of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment. He called the shrinking of the lake a “bona fide, documented, unquestionable health hazard.”

Dried-up saline lakes are hot spots for dangerous air pollution. Nearly a century after Owens Lake in southern California was drained to provide water to Los Angeles County in the 1920s, it was still the largest source of hazardous dust in the country, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The pollution has been linked to high rates of asthma, heart and lung disease and early deaths.

Kevin Perry, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Utah who studies pollution from the receding lake, said about 90 percent of the lake bed is protected by a thin crust of salt that keeps dust from escaping. But the longer the lake remains dry, the more that crust will erode, exposing more dangerous sediments to the air.

“You see this wall of dust coming off the lake, and it reduces horizontal visibility sometimes to less than a mile,” Perry said. The impact might only last a couple hours at a time, he said, but the consequences can be profound.

Perry and other researchers have mapped the location and elevation of the dust hot spots, he said, and the results show that the problem is unlikely to abate anytime soon. The lake would need to rise roughly 14 feet to cover 80 percent of current hot spots, Perry said, or about 10 feet to submerge half of them.

Even researchers have been taken aback by the rapid pace of the Great Salt Lake’s decline, Abbott said. Most scientific models projected that the shrinking would slow as the lake became smaller and saltier, since saltwater evaporates less readily than freshwater.

But human-caused climate change, driven mostly by burning fossil fuels, has increased average temperatures in northern Utah by about 4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 1900s and made the region more prone to drought, the report said. Studies suggest this warming accounts for about 9 percent of the decline in stream flows into the lake. Satellite surveys also show significant declines in groundwater beneath the lake, as ongoing drought depletes the region’s aquifers.

If humans weren’t using so much water, the lake might be able to withstand these shifts in climate, Abbott said. But the combined pressure of drought and overconsumption is proving to be more than it can bear.

Candice Hasenyager, the director of the Utah Division of Water Resources, said Utahns are becoming increasingly aware of the urgency of the lake’s decline. Last year, the Utah legislature passed numerous bills aimed at conservation, including a $40 million trust intended to help the ailing lake. Gov. Spencer Cox (R) recently proposed another massive infusion of funding for water management and conservation.

“We don’t have the luxury to have one solution,” but curbing water demand is essential, Hasenyager said. “We live in a desert, in one of the driest states in the nation, and we need to reduce the amount of water we use.”

Yet recent efforts haven’t kept up with the accelerating crisis. Abbott and his colleagues found that Utah’s new conservation laws increased stream flow to Great Salt Lake by less than 100,000 acre feet in 2022 – a tiny fraction of the 2.5 million acre feet increase that’s needed to bring the lake back to a healthy minimum level.

“Among legislators and decision-makers there is still a very prevalent narrative of ‘let’s put in place conservation measures so over the next couple of decades the Great Salt Lake can recover,'” Abbott said. “But we don’t have that time.”

“This isn’t business as usual,” he added. “This is an emergency rescue plan.”

The new report, drafted by more than 30 scientists from 11 universities, advocacy groups and other research institutions, recommends that Cox authorize emergency releases from Utah’s reservoirs to get the lake up to a safe level over the next two years.

This would require as much as a 50 percent cut in the amount of water the state uses each year, requiring investment from federal agencies on down to local governments, church leaders and community groups.

For decades, Abbott said, officials have prioritized human uses for all the water that trickles through the Great Salt Lake watershed.

Until last year, the lake itself wasn’t even considered a legitimate recipient of any water that fell in the region. If a farmer chose not to use some of their shares, allowing that water to flow to the lake and the surrounding ecosystem, they risked losing their water rights in the future.

“We have to shift from thinking of nature as a commodity, as a natural resource, to what we’ve learned over the last 50 years in ecology, and what Indigenous cultures have always known,” Abbott said. “Humans depend on the environment. . . . We have to think about, ‘What does the lake need to be healthy?’ and manage our water use with what remains.”

The weather this year has given Utah a prime opportunity to, in Abbott’s words, “put the lake first.” After a series of December storms, the state’s snowpack is already at 170 percent of normal January levels. If that snow persists and precipitation continues through the rest of the winter, it would enable the state to set aside millions of acre feet of water for the lake without making such drastic cuts to consumption.

“I’m generally optimistic,” said Hasenyager, the water resources director. “I don’t think we are past a point of no return – yet.”

A young father died after toxic mold grew in the walls of his family home.

Insider

A young father died after toxic mold grew in the walls of his family home. Here’s how to spot signs of mold, and how to stay safe.

Andrea Michelson and Leah Rosenbaum – January 5, 2023

26-year-old Christian Childers died Monday after long-term exposure to toxic mold.
Mold grew in his family’s home after flooding from Hurricane Ian last September.
Childers’ asthma made him particularly susceptible to health risks from mold.

Instead of spending time with his family at home, 26-year-old Christian Childers spent Christmas Eve in the hospital in a medically induced coma after a severe asthma attack led to cardiac arrest. The potential cause of this asthma attack: toxic mold that had been growing in his apartment for months.

Christian Childers and his fiancée Kendra Elliot first noticed the mold growing after Hurricane Ian flooded their home in September, Elliot told NBC affiliate WBBH-TV.

Despite attempts to get in contact with FEMA and the Red Cross, the family was forced to live with the mold for months, according to a GoFundMe set up by a family friend. The couple moved their family of five into the living room to avoid the toxic growth, but the mold continued to affect Childers, who had asthma and had to go to the hospital multiple times.

On December 24, Childers suffered an asthma flare-up and was struggling to breathe, Elliot told WBBH-TV. They went to his parents house, where he still wasn’t able to catch his breath, and then to the emergency room.

“They were on their way to the emergency room, and they didn’t make it,” Elliot told the local news station. “They had to pull into a fire station, and he went into cardiac arrest. He died, and they had to work on him for an hour to get his heartbeat back before they got him on the way to the hospital.”

Childers was initially put into a medically induced coma in the hospital to give his body a chance to recover from a hypoxic brain issue caused by a lack of oxygen, but on January 2 he died.

Additionally, during Childers’ hospital stay the family’s landlord sent them an eviction notice, which has been reviewed by Insider. Lorie Peterson, a friend of the family, said Elliot and her mother and two sons are still searching for a new place to live.

Mold is particularly dangerous for people with lung diseases like asthma

Mold stains on a damp wall.Ekspansio/Getty Images

Mold growth in the home is usually related to excess moisture in the environment — for instance, a Category 4 storm can cause plenty of water-related damage. Some molds can release toxins into the air, which can irritate the lungs, but not all molds found in the home are toxic.

While most people won’t suffer health effects from living in a home with small amounts of mold, it can be dangerous for people with lung diseases or people who are immunocompromised.

People with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or compromised immune systems should not stay in a moldy home, even while it is being cleaned, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Severe reactions to mold can include fevers and shortness of breath.

Otherwise healthy people can experience symptoms from mold exposure including coughing and wheezing.

What to do if there is mold in your home

The best way to stop mold exposure is prevent it from growing in the first place.

The CDC recommends that people control humidity levels in their homes through ventilating bathrooms, laundry and cooking areas; promptly fix leaks; and thoroughly clean and dry after flooding. Using an air conditioner or dehumidifier during humid and warm months can be helpful, as well as avoiding carpeting rooms that may gather moisture, like bathrooms.

If, however, you can already see or smell mold in your home, it’s best to get professional help. Mold growth can be removed with commercial cleaning products, soap and water, or a solution of water and bleach (no more than 1 cup of bleach per gallon of water). While it’s possible to clean up mold on your own, anyone with extensive mold growth or preexisting health conditions that would make them sensitive to mold should vacate the home and let a professional handle the cleanup.

Crazies taking over the asylum: Ginni Thomas Leaps Into House Speaker Battle Against Kevin McCarthy

HuffPost

Ginni Thomas Leaps Into House Speaker Battle Against Kevin McCarthy

Mary Papenfuss – January 5, 2023

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ wife, Virginia “Ginni” Thomas, has jumped squarely into the battle against Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s bid to become speaker of the House.

The in-your-face activism comes in the wake of stinging criticism of Thomas’ high-profile support of extremist right-wing politics even as her husband continues to rule in support of some of the same issues, raising serious conflict-of-interest concerns.

“Conservative organizations and the millions of grassroots conservatives … are united in our support of the 20 courageous members of Congress seeking to change the status quo in Washington,” said an open letter published Wednesday by the Conservative Action Project organization and signed by Thomas and about 70 other right-wing activists and organization officials.

“We stand behind them and beside them in their courageous efforts to find a Speaker of the House who will represent the interests of conservatives,” the letter added.

Most of the 20 “courageous” lawmakers, as they’re referred to in the letter, who have voted against McCarthy in his repeated bids to become speaker had denied the results of the 2020 presidential election, despite no evidence of their claims of widespread voter fraud.

Thomas backed the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrectionists, even though she testified to members of the House select committee investigating the U.S. Capitol riot that she had no evidence of election fraud.

Text messages previously released by the committee revealed how Ginni Thomas relentlessly pushed Donald Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, to do what he could to subvert the 2020 election results and keep Trump in power.

Thomas was joined in signing the letter by Cleta Mitchell, the controversial attorney who was on the phone call between Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffesnperger after the 2020 election when the then-president demanded that Raffensperger “find” just enough votes to change his loss to Joe Biden into a victory. That phone call is now at the center of a Georgia grand jury investigation.

Mitchell plotted with the right-wing American Legislative Exchange Council to challenge the election in the event Trump lost months before a single vote was cast. Lisa Nelson, the CEO of ALEC, announced to members in early 2020 that the organization had been working with Mitchell on “action items that legislators can take to question the validity” of the election, according to a recording obtained by the watchdog group Documented.

Thomas has been the target of stinging criticism for her role in extremist right-wing politics even as her husband rules on issues dear to her heart.

Supreme Court justices were divided over 2020 election issues but ultimately refused to accept Trump’s claims of election rigging. Clarence Thomas, however, stood out for emphasizing ballot fraud in sympathy with those who, like his wife, refused to accept the results.

He has also stood apart when other justices refused to block the work of the Jan. 6 committee, even while his wife was affected by the decision. Federal law requires all federal judges to recuse themselves from cases in which they cannot be impartial.

Norman Orenstein, emeritus scholar of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, has called it a massive “scandal” that Clarence Thomas continues to rule on issues his “radical insurrectionist” wife is involved in.

“The wife of a Supreme Court justice is a radical insurrectionist. Her husband has refused to recuse himself from any of the cases in which she has been deeply and actively involved. This is a scandal of immense proportions.”

As for McCarthy, the House adjourned until Friday after he lost an 11th vote to become speaker.

Related…

Why Does Kevin McCarthy Even Want to Be Speaker at This Point?

Daily Beast

Why Does Kevin McCarthy Even Want to Be Speaker at This Point?

Charlotte Clymer – January 5, 2023

Photo Illustration by Kelly Caminero / The Daily Beast / Getty

As the overhead lights dimmed in the House chamber on Wednesday evening, beckoning those present to begin their commutes back to apartments scattered across D.C., Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy put on a brave face and chatted amiably with colleagues.

It had been a brutal two days. After six ballots and six nominating speeches by oblivious colleagues and six opposing anti-McCarthy speeches that wouldn’t have seemed out-of-place in a Parks and Recreation town hall, McCarthy had failed to gain any movement against a bloc of far-right conservatives who seemed determined to end his dream of becoming Speaker of the House.

The California Republican looked about as lost as Donald Trump in a public library. I’m sure he thought it wasn’t supposed to be this way, but given who we’re talking about, it was inevitable. When it comes to leadership, Kevin McCarthy has always been a resumé in search of a reason.

Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker Battle Shows Newt Gingrich’s GOP Is Truly Dead

In 2010, McCarthy published the book Young Guns: A New Generation of Conservative Leaders, along with co-authors Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. Touted as the future of conservative politics, the trio staked out specifically defined roles meant to highlight their strengths: Cantor was the captain, Ryan was the thought leader, and McCarthy was the tactician.

Had he not been thumped in a shocking primary upset to a Tea Party candidate in 2014, Cantor would have likely become the first Jewish Speaker of the House. Ryan would go on to win the gavel after the retirement of Speaker John Boehner and spend four painful years negotiating the rise of Trump, before absconding after the utter shellacking his party took in 2018.

Say what you will about Cantor and Ryan, but they weren’t bereft of vision. They had specific policy goals, made them known, and weren’t afraid to fight for their beliefs, even with members of their own party, even on principle, however inconsistent that may have been.

Unlike his fellow Young Guns, Kevin McCarthy doesn’t appear to have any sort of vision beyond his own quest for power. His current and past GOP colleagues certainly seem to think so.

In a text exchange with CNN contributor Alyssa Farah Griffin—a former Trump administration official—she had little sympathy for the embattled GOP leader: “I’m sorry but McCarthy bears tremendous responsibility for this current disaster. He empowered the Hard Right, who are now blocking him, all while he’s telling his Conference that they can’t support anyone other than him because that would empower the hard Right.”

Stephen Colbert Can’t Believe He’s Agreeing With Matt Gaetz

Last month, Matt Gaetz published an op-ed in The Daily Caller claiming: “Every single Republican in Congress knows that Kevin does not actually believe in anything. He has no ideology. Some conservatives are using this fact to convince themselves that he is the right leader for the moment, as McCarthy is so weak he’ll promise anything to anyone.”

Gaetz also pointed to former GOP Rep. Bill Thomas (R-CA), McCarthy’s former mentor, who told a reporter last month: “Kevin basically is whatever you want him to be. He lies. He’ll change the lie if necessary. How can anyone trust his word?”

Many reporters who have covered him seem to agree, perhaps with a bit more subtlety.

This past June, a blistering op-ed from Politico’s Michael Schaffer summed up McCarthy in a brutal paragraph of descriptions from journalists, with various takes on his lack of policy curiosity and, notably, a 2018 article by Julie Hirschfield Davis that described him as “a golden retriever of a man.”

OK, perhaps not so much subtlety.

Seriously, why does Kevin McCarthy want to be speaker? Has anyone figured that out? Has anyone asked him directly? I don’t think he knows beyond some half-baked effort at his legacy. He has articulated no particular vision for the country. His colleagues don’t seem to trust him, and the reporters who have followed his career aren’t impressed with his knowledge of policy.

McCarthy has scrambled in recent weeks to placate his detractors in the caucus, offering numerous concessions—this morning going so far as to concede a rule that would permit any individual member to call for a no-confidence vote on his leadership, an embarrassing reversal that he previously vowed not to accept.

Holdouts Take Kevin McCarthy’s New Offer and Vote for Him to Shove It

It’s surreal to be as progressive as I am—in many ways, the antithesis of Kevin McCarthy—and understand, in ways he apparently doesn’t, that the more he offers concessions and grovels to these people, the more he drives them away. They dislike him not because of any glaring differences in policy but because he’s weak. And by “weak,” I mean that he’s spiritually weak. What does Kevin McCarthy stand for at the end of the day? What does he believe in? He doesn’t even have the good sense to believe in himself. Who wants to follow a leader like that? I sure as hell wouldn’t.

Even those Democratic lawmakers who opposed former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in previous leadership elections affirmed their respect for her as a colleague, which is why she won nine consecutive leadership elections and didn’t need more than one ballot in any of them.

I think even if McCarthy manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat and gets to that magic majority threshold for election, he’s going to be an ineffective speaker. His colleagues don’t respect him. They certainly don’t fear him. He’s a paper tiger in a room full of matches.

He fears his own caucus and craves their approval, and they know it.

Mexico arrests Ovidio Guzman, son of ‘El Chapo,’ city engulfed by violence

Reuters

Mexico arrests Ovidio Guzman, son of ‘El Chapo,’ city engulfed by violence

Lizbeth Diaz and Dave Graham – January 5, 2023

Mexico arrests Ovidio Guzman, son of 'El Chapo,' in Culiacan

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexican drug cartel leader Ovidio Guzman, a son of jailed kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, was arrested, unleashing a violent backlash by gang gunmen on Thursday that shut the airport in the city of Culiacan as authorities told residents to stay indoors.

Defense Minister Luis Cresencio Sandoval told a news conference that security forces had captured the 32-year-old senior member of the Sinaloa Cartel. The arrest comes three years after an attempt to detain him ended in humiliation for the government.

Ovidio was now being held in the capital Mexico City, Sandoval said.

Videos shared on social media, which Reuters was unable to immediately verify, appeared to show heavy fighting overnight in Culiacan, the main city in the northern state of Sinaloa, with the sky lit up by helicopter gunfire.

The city’s airport was the target of violence, with Mexican airline Aeromexico saying one of its planes had been hit by gunfire ahead of a scheduled flight to Mexico City. No-one was hurt, it said. The airport was closed until Thursday night.

Ovidio, who has become a key figure in the cartel since the arrest of his father, was briefly detained in 2019 but was quickly released to end violent retribution in Culiacan from his gang. The incident was an embarrassing setback for the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

His latest capture comes before a North American leaders’ summit in Mexico City next week, which U.S. President Joe Biden will attend and at which security issues are on the agenda.

One of the Mexican officials said Guzman’s arrest was likely to prove a welcome addition to U.S.-Mexico cooperation on security ahead of Biden’s visit.

The United States had offered a $5 million reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Ovidio.

It not yet clear whether Ovidio will be extradited to the United States like his father, who is serving a life sentence at Colorado’s Supermax, the most secure U.S. federal prison.

A surge in overdose deaths in the United States, fueled by the synthetic opioid fentanyl, has led to increased pressure on Mexico to combat the organizations – such as the Sinaloa Cartel – responsible for producing and shipping the drug.

The cartel is one of the world’s most powerful narcotics trafficking organizations.

For Tomas Guevara, a security expert at the Autonomous University of Sinaloa, Guzman’s arrest helps save face for Mexican law enforcement following the humiliation of having to let El Chapo’s son go in 2019.

“The detention of Ovidio is finally the culmination of something that was planned three years ago,” he said.

It might also herald a change in approach by the government, Guevara added, after criticism from many security experts that Lopez Obrador was soft on the cartels, an accusation he denies.

The president argues the confrontational tactics of his predecessors were unsuccessful and only caused more bloodshed, saying he would instead pursue a strategy of “hugs not bullets.”

RESIDENTS URGED TO STAY INDOORS

On Thursday morning, security forces were attempting to contain a violent reaction to the arrest in the Culiacan area by Guzman’s associates.

Burned vehicles were scattered on the streets and heavily armed law enforcement patrolled in pickup trucks.

“We continue to work on controlling the situation,” said Cristobal Castaneda, Sinaloa’s public security chief.

Local government urged people to stay indoors and said schools and administrative offices were closed due to the violence. Street blockades had also been erected.

“We ask the citizens of Culiacan not to leave home due to the blockades that have occurred in different parts of the city,” Culiacan Mayor Juan de Dios Gamez wrote on Twitter.

Joaquin Guzman, 65, was convicted in New York in 2019 of trafficking billions of dollars of drugs to the United States and conspiring to murder enemies.

Eduardo Guerrero, director of Lantia Consulting which analyzes Mexican organized crime, said that recent pressure from the Biden administration to target the Sinaloa Cartel had likely motivated Mexico to go after Guzman.

But he warned that while Ovidio’s capture was likely to weaken that cartel, it could help their main rival, the notoriously violent Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

“It’s very important the government bear in mind that the weakening of the Sinaloa Cartel may also bring about an even greater expansion, a greater presence of the Jalisco Cartel.

(Reporting by Lizbeth Diaz, Dave Graham and Diego Ore, additional reporting by Tomas Bravo, Kylie Madry and Jackie Botts, Writing by Stephen EisenhammerEditing by Alistair Bell)

Cartel lays siege to Mexican city after recapture of the son of ‘El Chapo’

Los Angeles Times

Cartel lays siege to Mexican city after recapture of the son of ‘El Chapo’

Kate Linthicum – January 5, 2023

FILE - This Oct. 17, 2019 file frame grab from video provided by the Mexican government, shows Ovidio Guzman Lopez at the moment of his detention, in Culiacan, Mexico. Mexican security forces had Ovidio Guzman Lopez, a son of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, outside a house on his knees against a wall before they were forced to back off and let him go as his gunmen shot up the western city of Culiacan. (CEPROPIE via AP, File) — Ovidio Guzmán, a leader of the Sinaloa drug cartel, is taken into custody by Mexican security forces in 2019. He was released then, but was apparently captured again Thursday. (Associated Press)

Armed men took hostages, burned vehicles and stormed an airport in northern Mexico on Thursday after federal forces captured Ovidio Guzmán, one of the world’s most wanted cartel leaders and the son of drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.

The drug boss was arrested early Thursday in the city of Culiacan, a stronghold of Guzmán’s Sinaloa cartel, and was later flown to Mexico City, according to Mexican Secretary of Defense Luis Crescencio Sandoval González.

Officials canceled flights, suspended school and ordered residents to shelter in place as videos circulated on social media showing roads blockaded by burning vehicles and gunfire erupting on the tarmac of the Culiacan airport. One local journalist, Marcos Vizcarra, said he had been effectively taken hostage along with other civilians in a hotel, their cars confiscated by armed gunmen to be incinerated in the streets.

The dramatic cartel response was eerily similar to a bloody siege on Culiacan in 2019, the last time federal forces sought to capture 32-year-old Ovidio Guzmán.

Vehicles burn on a city street — Vehicles burn in Culiacan, Mexico, on Oct. 17, 2019, after the arrest of the son of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán there. A similar scene was playing out Thursday as Ovidio Guzmán was reportedly arrested a second time in Culiacan. (AFP via Getty Images)

In 2019, federal forces raided a luxurious Culiacan compound and subdued Ovidio Guzmán, who has helped lead the Sinaloa cartel since his father was sentenced to life in prison in the United States.

But as Mexican national guard members were attempting to take him into custody, hundreds of Sinaloa fighters seized control of the city, taking hostages, blocking intersections with burning vehicles and laying siege to a housing complex for the families of military personnel. Eight people were killed. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador eventually ordered Guzmán’s release to avoid more bloodshed.

Many Mexicans and U.S. law enforcement personnel were furious about the bungled operation, which they said humiliated federal forces and sent a dangerous message to criminal groups.

The recapture of Guzmán comes days before a scheduled visit to Mexico by President Biden. Some in Mexico speculated that it was timed to please the Americans, who have grumbled about the Mexican president’s crime-fighting strategy and in particular his effort to shield a former defense minister charged by U.S. officials with collaborating with organized crime.

Former President Vicente Fox, a major critic of López Obrador, speculated in a tweet that “Ovidio will be the gift for Biden.”

George Israel, a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said López Obrador was “cleaning the house before Biden arrives, gift in hand with bow and all.”

Meanwhile, the situation on the ground in Culiacan seemed far from contained.

After videos circulated showing gunfire at the airport, Aeromexico, the country’s largest airline, said one of its planes was attacked but said there had been no injuries.

Rubén Rocha Moya, the governor of Sinaloa state, called on citizens “to remain calm and take shelter in their homes.”

Cecilia Sánchez in The Times’ Mexico City bureau contributed to this report.

Capitol riot investigation growing 2 years later

Associated Press

EXPLAINER: Capitol riot investigation growing 2 years later

Michael Kunzelman – January 5, 2023

FILE - Violent insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier on Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File) — Violent insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier on Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)

FILE - Violent insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump, storm the Capitol, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File) — Violent insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump, storm the Capitol, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File)

FILE - U.S. Capitol Police hold rioters at gun-point near the House Chamber inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File) — U.S. Capitol Police hold rioters at gun-point near the House Chamber inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Violent insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File)

FILE - Violent insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File) — U.S. Capitol Police hold rioters at gun-point near the House Chamber inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Violent insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File)

FILE - Police with guns drawn watch as rioters try to break into the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File) — Police with guns drawn watch as rioters try to break into the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

FILE - People shelter in the House gallery as rioters try to break into the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File) — People shelter in the House gallery as rioters try to break into the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

The largest investigation in the Justice Department’s history keeps growing two years after a violent mob of supporters of then-President Donald Trump attacked the U.S. Capitol and challenged the foundations of American democracy.

More than 930 people have been charged with federal crimes related to the siege on Jan. 6, 2021, and the tally increases by the week. Hundreds more people remain at large on the second anniversary of the unprecedented assault that was fueled by lies that the 2020 election was stolen.

A surplus of self-incriminating videos and social media posts has made it difficult for riot suspects to present viable defenses. Federal prosecutors have a near-perfect trial record, securing a conviction in all but one case.

The cases have clogged Washington’s federal court, a building less than a mile from the Capitol. Virtually every weekday, judges are sentencing rioters or accepting their guilty pleas while carving out room on their dockets for trials. Already scheduled for this year are trials for about 140 riot defendants.

At least 538 cases, more than half of those brought so far, have been resolved through guilty pleas, trials, dismissals or the defendant’s death, according to an Associated Press review of court records. That leaves approximately 400 unresolved cases at the outset of 2023.

While a House committee has wrapped up its investigation of the riot, the Justice Department’s work appears to be far from done. A special counsel is overseeing two federal investigations involving Trump: one into the retention of classified documents at the former president’s Florida estate and a second into efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

The Jan. 6 attack as an “assault on our democracy,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said.

“And we remain committed to doing everything in our power to prevent this from ever happening again,” he said in a statement Wednesday.

A look at where the prosecutions stand:

HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN CHARGED?

The number of defendants charged with Jan. 6-related federal crimes is approaching 1,000. They range from misdemeanor charges against people who entered the Capitol but did not engage in any violence to seditious conspiracy charges against members of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys extremist groups accused of violently plotting to stop the transfer of presidential power.

More than 100 police officers were injured at the Capitol. More than 280 defendants have been charged with assaulting or impeding law enforcement officers on Jan. 6, according to the Justice Department. The FBI is posting videos and photos of violent, destructive rioters in seeking the public’s help in identifying other culprits.

Investigators have used facial recognition software, license plate readers and other high-tech tools to track down some suspects. Networks of online sleuths have helped the FBI identify rioters based on digital clues.

Among those still on the lam: the person who put two explosives outside the offices of the Republican and Democratic national committees before the riot. The FBI, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the Metropolitan Police Department are offering a $500,000 reward for information leading to an arrest and conviction.

Authorities have shared a staggering amount of evidence with defense lawyers — more than nine terabytes of information that would take over 100 days to view. The shared files include thousands of hours of surveillance footage from the Capitol and hundreds of hours of bodycam videos from police officers who tried to hold off the mob.

HOW MANY HAVE PLEADED GUILTY?

Nearly 500 people have pleaded guilty to riot-related charges, typically hoping that cooperating could lead to a lighter punishment.

About three-quarters of them pleaded guilty to misdemeanors in which the maximum sentence was either six months or one year behind bars. More than 100 of them have pleaded guilty to felony charges punishable by longer prison terms.

The first person to plead guilty to a Jan. 6-related crime was Jon Ryan Schaffer, an Indiana musician who joined the Oath Keepers. Schaffer was one of at least eight Oath Keepers who pleaded guilty before the group’s founder, Stewart Rhodes, and other members went to trial on seditious conspiracy charges.

The Justice Department also cut plea deals with several Proud Boys members, securing their cooperation to build a case against former national leader Enrique Tarrio and other top members of the group. A New York man, Matthew Greene, was the first Proud Boys member to plead guilty to conspiring with others to stop Congress from certifying the Electoral College vote.

HOW MANY HAVE GONE TO TRIAL?

Dozens of riot defendants have elected to let juries or judges decide their fates. For the most part, they haven’t fared well at trial.

The Justice Department notched a high-stakes victory in November when a jury convicted Rhodes, the Oath Keepers’ founder, and a Florida chapter leader of seditious conspiracy. It was the first seditious conspiracy conviction at trial in decades. Jurors acquitted three other Oath Keepers associates of the Civil War-era charge, but convicted them of other felony offenses.

The next major milestone is the sedition trial of Tarrio and four other members of the Proud Boys. Jury selection in the trial of the far-right extremist group started last month.

In other cases, an Ohio man who stole a coat rack from the Capitol testified that he was acting on orders from Trump when he stormed the Capitol. A New Jersey man described by prosecutors as a Nazi sympathizer claimed he didn’t know that Congress met at the Capitol. A retired New York Police Department officer testified that he was defending himself when he tackled a police officer and grabbed his gas mask outside the Capitol.

Those defenses fell flat. Jurors unanimously convicted all three men of every charge in their respective indictments.

Federal juries have convicted at least 22 people of Jan. 6 charges. Judges have convicted an additional 24 riot defendants after hearing and deciding cases without a jury.

Only one person, New Mexico resident Matthew Martin, has been acquitted of all charges after a trial. After hearing testimony without a jury, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden concluded that it was reasonable for Martin to believe that outnumbered police officers allowed him and others to enter the Capitol through the Rotunda doors on Jan. 6.

HOW MANY HAVE BEEN SENTENCED?

At least 362 riot defendants were sentenced by the end of 2022. Roughly 200 of them have received terms of imprisonment ranging from seven days to 10 years. Prosecutors had recommended a jail or prison sentence in approximately 300 of those 362 cases.

Retired New York Police Department Officer Thomas Webster has received the longest prison sentence. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta, who sentenced Webster to a decade in prison, also presided over the first Oath Keepers sedition trial and will sentence Rhodes and Rhodes’ convicted associates.

Webster is one of 34 riot defendants who has received a prison sentence of at least three years. More than half of them, including Webster, assaulted police officers at the Capitol.

The riot resulted in more than $2.7 million in damage. So far, judges have ordered roughly 350 convicted rioters to collectively pay nearly $280,00 in restitution. More than 100 rioters have been ordered to pay over $241,000 in total fines.

Judges also have ordered dozens of rioters to serve terms of home detention ranging from two weeks to one year — usually instead of jail time — and to collectively perform more than 14,000 hours of community service.

Two-thirds of glaciers on track to disappear by 2100

Associated Press

Study: Two-thirds of glaciers on track to disappear by 2100

Seth Borenstein – January 5, 2023

FILE - Chunks of ice float on Mendenhall Lake in front of the Mendenhall Glacier on Monday, May 30, 2022, in Juneau, Alaska. A study of all of the world's 215,000 glaciers published on Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, finds even if with the unlikely minimum warming of only a few tenths of a degrees more, the world will lose nearly half its glaciers by the end of the century. With the warming we're now on track to get, the world will lose two-thirds of its glaciers and overall glacier mass will drop by one-third while sea level rises 4.5 inches just from melting glaciers. (AP Photo/Becky Bohrer) — Chunks of ice float on Mendenhall Lake in front of the Mendenhall Glacier on Monday, May 30, 2022, in Juneau, Alaska. A study of all of the world’s 215,000 glaciers published on Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, finds even if with the unlikely minimum warming of only a few tenths of a degrees more, the world will lose nearly half its glaciers by the end of the century. With the warming we’re now on track to get, the world will lose two-thirds of its glaciers and overall glacier mass will drop by one-third while sea level rises 4.5 inches just from melting glaciers. (AP Photo/Becky Bohrer)

FILE - This combination of Sept. 14, 1986, left, and Aug. 1, 2019 photos provided by NASA shows the shrinking of the Okjokull glacier on the Ok volcano in west-central Iceland. A geological map from 1901 estimated Okjökull spanned an area of about 38 square kilometers (15 square miles). In 1978, aerial photography showed the glacier was 3 square kilometers. in 2019, less than 1 square kilometer remains. (NASA via AP, File) — This combination of Sept. 14, 1986, left, and Aug. 1, 2019 photos provided by NASA shows the shrinking of the Okjokull glacier on the Ok volcano in west-central Iceland. A geological map from 1901 estimated Okjökull spanned an area of about 38 square kilometers (15 square miles). In 1978, aerial photography showed the glacier was 3 square kilometers. in 2019, less than 1 square kilometer remains. (NASA via AP, File)

FILE - People climb to the top of what once was the Okjokull glacier, in Iceland, Sunday, Aug. 18, 2019. With poetry, moments of silence and political speeches about the urgent need to fight climate change, Icelandic officials, activists and others bade goodbye to the first Icelandic glacier to disappear. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana, File) — People climb to the top of what once was the Okjokull glacier, in Iceland, Sunday, Aug. 18, 2019. With poetry, moments of silence and political speeches about the urgent need to fight climate change, Icelandic officials, activists and others bade goodbye to the first Icelandic glacier to disappear. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana, File)

The world’s glaciers are shrinking and disappearing faster than scientists thought, with two-thirds of them projected to melt out of existence by the end of the century at current climate change trends, according to a new study.

But if the world can limit future warming to just a few more tenths of a degree and fulfill international goals — technically possible but unlikely according to many scientists — then slightly less than half the globe’s glaciers will disappear, said the same study. Mostly small but well-known glaciers are marching to extinction, study authors said.

In an also unlikely worst-case scenario of several degrees of warming, 83% of the world’s glaciers would likely disappear by the year 2100, study authors said.

The study in Thursday’s journal Science examined all of the globe’s 215,000 land-based glaciers — not counting those on ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica — in a more comprehensive way than past studies. Scientists then used computer simulations to calculate, using different levels of warming, how many glaciers would disappear, how many trillions of tons of ice would melt, and how much it would contribute to sea level rise.

The world is now on track for a 2.7-degree Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) temperature rise since pre-industrial times, which by the year 2100 means losing 32% of the world’s glacier mass, or 48.5 trillion metric tons of ice as well as 68% of the glaciers disappearing. That would increase sea level rise by 4.5 inches (115 millimeters) in addition to seas already getting larger from melting ice sheets and warmer water, said study lead author David Rounce.

“No matter what, we’re going to lose a lot of the glaciers,” Rounce, a glaciologist and engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University, said. “But we have the ability to make a difference by limiting how many glaciers we lose.”

“For many small glaciers it is too late,” said study co-author Regine Hock, a glaciologist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and the University of Oslo in Norway. “However, globally our results clearly show that every degree of global temperature matters to keep as much ice as possible locked up in the glaciers.”

Projected ice loss by 2100 ranges from 38.7 trillion metric tons to 64.4 trillion tons, depending on how much the globe warms and how much coal, oil and gas is burned, according to the study.

The study calculates that all that melting ice will add anywhere from 3.5 inches (90 millimeters) in the best case to 6.5 inches (166 millimeters) in the worst case to the world’s sea level, 4% to 14% more than previous projections.

That 4.5 inches of sea level rise from glaciers would mean more than 10 million people around the world — and more than 100,000 people in the United States — would be living below the high tide line, who otherwise would be above it, said sea level rise researcher Ben Strauss, CEO of Climate Central. Twentieth-century sea level rise from climate change added about 4 inches to the surge from 2012 Superstorm Sandy costing about $8 billion in damage just in itself, he said.

Scientists say future sea level rise will be driven more by melting ice sheets than glaciers.

But the loss of glaciers is about more than rising seas. It means shrinking water supplies for a big chunk of the world’s population, more risk from flood events from melting glaciers and about losing historic ice-covered spots from Alaska to the Alps to even near Mount Everest’s base camp, several scientists told The Associated Press.

“For places like the Alps or Iceland… glaciers are part of what makes these landscapes so special,” said National Snow and Ice Data Center Director Mark Serreze, who wasn’t part of the study but praised it. “As they lose their ice in a sense they also lose their soul.”

Hock pointed to Vernagtferner glacier in the Austrian Alps, which is one of the best-studied glaciers in the world, but said “the glacier will be gone.”

The Columbia Glacier in Alaska had 216 billion tons of ice in 2015, but with just a few more tenths of a degree of warming, Rounce calculated it will be half that size. If there’s 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since pre-industrial times, an unlikely worst-case scenario, it will lose two-thirds of its mass, he said.

“It’s definitely a hard one to look at and not drop your jaw at,” Rounce said.

Glaciers are crucial to people’s lives in much of the world, said National Snow and Ice Center Deputy Lead Scientist Twila Moon, who wasn’t part of the study.

“Glaciers provide drinking water, agricultural water, hydropower, and other services that support billions (yes, billions!) of people,” Moon said in an email.

Moon said the study “represents significant advances in projecting how the world’s glaciers may change over the next 80 years due to human-created climate change.”

That’s because the study includes factors in glacier changes that previous studies didn’t and is more detailed, said Ruth Mottram and Martin Stendel, climate scientists at the Danish Meteorological Institute who weren’t part of the research.

This new study better factors in how the glaciers’ ice melts not just from warmer air, but water both below and at the edges of glaciers and how debris can slow melt, Stendel and Mottram said. Previous studies concentrated on large glaciers and made regional estimates instead of calculations for each individual glacier.

In most cases, the estimated loss figures Rounce’s team came up with are slightly more dire than earlier estimates.

If the world can somehow limit warming to the global goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since pre-industrial times — the world is already at 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) — Earth will likely lose 26% of total glacial mass by the end of the century, which is 38.7 trillion metric tons of ice melting. Previous best estimates had that level of warming melting translating to only 18% of total mass loss.

“I have worked on glaciers in the Alps and Norway which are really rapidly disappearing,” Mottram said in an email. “It’s kind of devastating to see.”