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Insider

There are big problems with the way the Kremlin drone incident went down, and war experts say Russia ‘likely staged’ it

 Mia Jankowicz – May 4, 2023

• Much remains unknown about the drone incident that the Kremlin announced on Wednesday.
• A US think tank, however, argues it was “likely” a Russian false-flag operation.
• Several commentators have cautiously noted the potential political benefits for Russia.

A US think tank says Russia “likely” staged a drone attack on the Kremlin as a false-flag operation, with other observers noting how politically advantageous the incident would be for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia on Wednesday claimed that two drones — one of which was apparently caught on camera exploding — were sent over the Kremlin as a “planned terrorist act and an attempt on the president’s life.” It characterized the incident as a Ukrainian attack.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy quickly denied any involvement.

The Kremlin was largely unharmed in the incident, and Putin wasn’t in the building at the time.

As military experts told Insider, many details of the incident — and ultimate responsibility for it — remained unconfirmed as of Thursday.

But the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank that produces a detailed daily situation update on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, says “several indicators suggest that the strike was internally conducted and purposefully staged” by Russia.

Russia has bolstered its multilayered air defenses around Moscow, making it “extremely unlikely” that two drones could get close enough to explode “just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera,” the ISW said.

The think tank pointed to geolocated images of Russia installing advanced Pantsir surface-to-air missile-defense systems around Moscow earlier this year.

Moscow and the central industrial district are defended by the 1st Air and Missile Defense Army, equipped with S-300 or S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, as Defense News reported. The Russian defense ministry is also working to further bolster these capabilities by year-end.

The highly coordinated public statements made immediately after the incident also suggest it was no surprise to Russia, the ISW said.

Russia’s much-hyped annual Victory Day celebrations are looming on May 9 — but have been pared back nationwide over security concerns.

Some observers have argued that the celebrations could turn into a show of dissent against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the BBC reported.

The Kremlin could use the drone incident to justify scaling them back even further, which would help it in “framing the war in Ukraine as directly threatening Russian observance of revered historical events,” the ISW wrote.

Several commentators have speculated on the positive political possibilities for Russia in staging such an attack, both domestically and on the international stage.

“Russia needs some sort of justification for why they are continuing to stay in Ukraine,” Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, told Insider, speaking hypothetically about the incident.

“And so this has a message for the domestic populace to say: ‘Look how dangerous Ukraine is. They’re even trying to kill Putin.'”

“The motives are all really in Russia’s favor,” an unnamed UK senior defense source told the Sky News correspondent Tamara Cohen.

The source echoed Miron’s sentiments, saying it would encourage “the public to rally round; excuse for more random and reckless bombardments; trying to gain sympathy for Russia over Ukraine.”

Russia also has a history of false-flag attacks and is known to make demonstrably false claims around international incidents.

Still, other theories — such as the drone incident being a warning signal from Ukraine or the work of Russian dissidents — are far from closed off, experts told Insider.

Some commentators have said Ukraine’s denial is undermined by the fact that it has also denied prior incidents on Russian territory that have been widely attributed to Kyiv.

James Patton Rogers, a drone expert, hypothesized that the drones used could have been the Ukrainian UJ-22, which was most likely used in a prior attempt on a Gazprom site near Moscow in February. He said the earlier strike could have been a test to feel out Moscow’s air defenses.

The Russian defense and foreign ministries didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Reuters

Russia says Ukraine tried to kill Putin with night-time drone attack on Kremlin

Mark Trevelyan – May 3, 2023

(Reuters) -Russia accused Ukraine on Wednesday of attacking the Kremlin with drones overnight in a failed attempt to kill President Vladimir Putin.

A senior Ukrainian presidential official denied the accusation – the most serious that Moscow has levelled at Kyiv in more than 14 months of war – and said it indicated Moscow was preparing a major “terrorist provocation”.

The Kremlin said Russia reserved the right to retaliate, and hardliners demanded swift retribution against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

“Two unmanned aerial vehicles were aimed at the Kremlin. As a result of timely actions taken by the military and special services with the use of radar warfare systems, the devices were put out of action,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

“We regard these actions as a planned terrorist act and an attempt on the president’s life, carried out on the eve of Victory Day, the May 9 Parade, at which the presence of foreign guests is also planned …

“The Russian side reserves the right to take retaliatory measures where and when it sees fit.”

Baza, a Telegram channel with links to Russia’s law enforcement agencies, posted a video showing a flying object approaching the dome of the Kremlin Senate building overlooking Red Square – site of the Victory Day parade – and exploding in an intense burst of light just before reaching it. Reuters could not immediately verify the video’s authenticity.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in comments sent to Reuters: “Ukraine has nothing to do with drone attacks on the Kremlin. We do not attack the Kremlin because, first of all, it does not resolve any military tasks.”

He added: “In my opinion, it is absolutely obvious that both ‘reports about an attack on the Kremlin’ and simultaneously the supposed detention of Ukrainian saboteurs in Crimea … clearly indicate the preparation of a large-scale terrorist provocation by Russia in the coming days.”

The powerful speaker of the lower house of Russia’s parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, issued a statement demanding the use of “weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime”.

Margarita Simonyan, head of the state broadcaster RT, wrote on Telegram: “Maybe now things will get started for real?”

PUTIN WAS NOT IN KREMLIN – RIA

The statement from the presidential administration said fragments of the drones had been scattered on the territory of the Kremlin complex but there were no casualties or material damage.

RIA said Putin had not been in the Kremlin at the time, and was working on Wednesday at his Novo Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow.

Another video circulating on Russian social media appeared to show a plume of smoke over the Kremlin after the purported attack.

The video was posted in the early hours of Wednesday on a group for residents of a neighbourhood that faces the Kremlin across the Mosvka River. It was picked up by Russian media, including the Telegram channel of the military news outlet Zvezda.

Victory Day is a major public holiday commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War Two, and a chance for Putin to rally Russians behind what he calls his “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Russia marks the occasion with a huge military parade on Red Square, for which seating has already been erected.

The state news agency TASS said the parade – for which the Kremlin last week announced tighter security – would still go ahead.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said earlier on Wednesday that the city had introduced an immediate ban on unauthorised drone flights.

Russia has accused Ukraine of numerous cross-border attacks since the start of the war, including strikes in December on an air base deep inside Russian territory that houses strategic bomber planes equipped to carry nuclear weapons. In February, a drone crashed in Kolomna, about 110 km (70 miles) from the centre of Moscow.

Ukraine typically declines to claim responsibility for attacks on Russia or Russian-annexed Crimea, though Kyiv officials have frequently celebrated such attacks with cryptic or mocking remarks.

(Additional reporting by Felix Light and Jake Cordell; writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

The War Zone

Drone Attack On The Kremlin In Moscow (Updated)

Howard Altman – May 3, 2023

Video has emerged showing what appears to be a drone striking at the dome of the Senatsky Dvorets in the Kremlin in Moscow. Russian officials claim that the building came under attack by Ukraine and have vowed to retaliate, while Ukraine’s president denied Kyiv’s involvement in the incident.

The video shows what appears to be a drone approaching the dome and then exploding in a ball of fire that lit up the sky. It seems that this drone did not impact the dome itself, but detonated very close to it, sending flaming debris falling. Two drones are suspected to have attacked the dome in succession.

Stills captured from another video appear to show two drone strikes, one at 2:27 A.M. and another at 2:43 A.M.

Moscow residents say the sound of the explosion could be heard from across the Moskva River, according to the Yakimanca Telegram channel, a Moscow neighborhood social media site.

“The strength of the [explosion] was like a roll of thunder, neighbors from Serafimovicha Street write,” according to Yakimanca. “Also, residents of the House on the Embankment saw sparks in the sky and people with flashlights near the Kremlin wall after the claps. The illumination of the Kremlin and the Kremlin embankment is now off.”

Residents of the House on the Embankment, an iconic block-long apartment building along the banks of the Moskva River, reported “a strong bang and smoke in the center at about 2:30 a.m.,” according to Yakimanca, which posted videos of the incident. “A few minutes later, the popping repeated.”

Putin’s press service blamed Ukraine for the attacks, which could be viewed as a major symbolic victory for Ukraine, especially ahead of Victory Day on May 9. There is hardly a higher profile target than the Kremlin. On the other hand, they could also be used to rally Russians to support Putin’s war efforts. This has already led to speculation that this was a calculated move by Russia.

The video also shows people climbing the tower just prior to the detonation of one of the drones, which has led to suspicions as to exactly how all this played out.

“Last night, the Kyiv regime attempted a drone strike against the residence of the President of the Russian Federation at the Kremlin,” Russia’s official Presidential Press Service stated.

“Two unmanned aerial vehicles targeted the Kremlin. Timely action by the military and special services involving radar systems enabled them to disable the devices. They crashed in the Kremlin grounds, scattering fragments without causing any casualties or damage.”

“We view these actions as a planned terrorist attack and an assassination attempt targeting the President, carried out ahead of Victory Day and the May 9 Parade, where foreign guests are expected to be present, among others.”

Putin “has not suffered in this terrorist attack. His working schedule remains unchanged and follows its ordinary course. Russia reserves the right to take countermeasures wherever and whenever it deems appropriate.”

However, Mikhail Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, denied Kyiv’s involvement.

“As for the drones over the Kremlin. It’s all predictable,” Podolyak said in a tweet. “Russia is clearly preparing a large-scale terrorist attack. That’s why it first detains a large allegedly subversive group in Crimea. And then it demonstrates ‘drones over the Kremlin.’ First of all, Ukraine wages an exclusively defensive war and does not attack targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. What for? This does not solve any military issue. But it gives RF grounds to justify its attacks on civilians.”

Podolyak’s comment about Ukraine not attacking Russian territory is also specious, as we have repeatedly reported numerous incidents where Russian towns along the border and targets beyond have come under attack by various means.

Regardless of who is to blame, Russia has clearly anticipated some kind of attack on its capital, installing a Pantsir air defense system on top of at least two different government buildings in Moscow, including the Ministry of Defense’s headquarters in January. You can read more about that in our coverage here.

We don’t know at this point what kind of drones were involved or from where they were launched, but there have been other apparent attempts by Ukraine to strike near Moscow and Ukrainian drones have gotten closer and closer to the capital in recent months. On April 24, an explosives-laden Ukrainian drone, most likely a UJ-22, was found a short distance from Moscow. You can see it in this tweet below.

We also reported about an incident in February, where a Ukrainian drone came within 70 miles of Moscow. You can read more about that in our coverage here.

But despite the attack, the Victory Day parade will go on and Putin will take part, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, according to TASS.

Putin is working today at his residence near Moscow in Novo-Ogaryovo, Peskov told RIA Novosti.

“The president’s schedule continues without changes,” he said.

As a result of the attack, Moscow’s mayor issued an order banning drone flying in the city.

Moscow’s mayor announced a ban on unauthorized drone flights over the Russian capital Wednesday after the Kremlin said it had shot down two Ukrainian drones targeting President Vladimir Putin. (Photo by NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP via Getty Images)

Meanwhile, there was yet another Ukrainian attack in Bryansk Oblast, which sits roughly 100 miles away from the Ukrainian border.

“UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked a military airfield in the Bryansk region on the night of May 3,” the Russian Baza news agency reported on its Telegram channel.

“According to preliminary data, a total of five UAVs participated in the attack,” according to Baza. “Two of them were destroyed by small arms, two more exploded on the territory of the airfield. Another drone was not found”.

As a result of the attack, a “non-operating” An-124 cargo jet “received minor damage,” according to Baza. “There were no casualties.”

Bryansk Oblast, which borders Ukraine, has been a frequent target of attacks.

There was also a suspected drone attack on a Russian oil facility in Krasnodar Oblast Russia, across the Kerch Strait from Crimea, according to a local government official.

“A fire at an oil depot in the Temryuk district of the Kuban is seen from Mount Mithridates in Kerch,” Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram channel, adding that there are no victims and no danger to the public.

The fire response “was assigned the highest rank of difficulty. The fire area was 1,200 square meters. The drone attack has not yet been officially confirmed, but local public reports report that the fire was preceded by an explosion.”

Residents of the village were not evacuated, said Kondratyev.

The resulting fire and smoke could be seen from the Kerch Bridge, itself the site of a Ukrainian attack last October.

These are just some of several suspected Ukrainian attacks noted by Russian milblogger Igor Girkin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied his country’s involvement in the Kremlin attack.

In response to this incident, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, called for the assassination of Zelensky and his cabinet.

“After today’s terrorist attack, there are no options left except for the physical elimination of Zelensky and his cabal,” he said on his Telegram channel. “It is not even needed to sign the act of unconditional surrender. Hitler, as you know, did not sign it either. There will always be some kind of changer like the Zitz President Admiral Dönitz.”

Medvedev’s statement elicited a response from Podolyak.

CIA director Bill Burns will brief the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on the incident, according to CNN.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov echoed Zelensky’s denial.

AFP

Conflict deepens Russia’s demographic crisis

May 2, 2023

Russia’s offensive in Ukraine has aggravated a long-simmering demographic crisis that President Vladimir Putin has struggled to tackle, which could further damage its sanctions-hit economy.

For a country already suffering from a shrinking labour force because of persistently low birth rates, the conflict means even more difficulties that could persist for years.

The mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of men took them off the job market, while prompting many of the most educated parts of the population to flee the country.

“Russia lacks workers,” Alexei Raksha, a demographer who previously worked at the Rosstat statistics agency, told AFP.

“It’s an old problem, but it has gotten worse due to mobilisation and mass departures,” he said.

Russia inherited low birth rates with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, when birth rates had halved due to economic hardship and uncertainties over the country’s future.

Putin has since tried to push families to have children, heralding “traditional values” as a way to solve what he believes to be an existential crisis.

As part of his efforts to boost population growth, he introduced a financial bonus for a second and every following child.

– Already hit by Covid –

Russian authorities have not given updated estimates of troop losses in Ukraine since September 2022, when the Defence Ministry reported 5,937 dead.

Western estimates suggest around 150,000 dead and wounded on each side.

“We don’t know about the exact losses in the military operation, but 300,000 people were mobilised, further reducing the number of young people working,” said Natalya Zubarevich, an expert at the Moscow State University.

The battlefield losses come on the heels of a deadly coronavirus pandemic, which “hit Russia hard”, demographic expert Igor Yefremov told AFP.

Official figures count around 400,000 deaths from Covid-19, but the actual toll is estimated to be much higher.

Given the shrinking labour force, Russia’s low unemployment rate of 3.5 percent is not a healthy sign — showing instead a shortage of recruits, with various sectors struggling to fill posts.

A survey published on April 19 by the Russian Central Bank confirmed “acute” tensions, particularly in “processing industries”, transport and “water supply”.

– Will some ‘come back’? –

A study last month from the Higher School of Economics said Russia needed to take in 390,000 to 1.1 million migrants every year until the end of the century to avoid population shrinkage.

But some sectors will not be able to compensate the losses of workers, particularly industries requiring high levels of education.

Raksha said the Ukraine conflict triggered two waves of departures, with “many highly qualified people, including IT specialists”, leaving Russia.

He estimated that around 150,000 people, including around 100,000 men, quit Russia in February-March 2022, just weeks after the conflict erupted.

After Putin announced a mobilisation for the country in September, Raksha estimates that another half a million left.

A recent law has imposed economic restrictions on draft dodgers, which could encourage those who have fled abroad to settle there permanently.

Still, Zubarevich said more than 60 percent of those who left continue working for Russian companies remotely.

“And some of them will come back,” she said.