6 more years of Vladimir Putin will bring increasingly weak, dysfunctional Russia
William Partlett, University of Melbourne – March 14, 2024
People stand in front of a large screen that shows a live broadcast of the Russian President Vladimir Putin delivering his annual address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow on February 29. Photo by Maxim Shipenkov/EPA-EFE
March 14 (UPI) — There is very little drama in Russia’s presidential election this weekend. We all know Vladimir Putin will win. The only real question is whether he will receive more than 75% of the vote.
It could be tempting to see these results as a sign of the strength of the Russian system. Recent gains by the Russian army in Ukraine seem to further support this.
But my own research — soon to be published in a forthcoming book — shows the election results and Russia’s military gains in Ukraine hide a much more problematic reality for the country.
Russia’s system of government is not only undemocratic, rights abusing and unpredictable. It is also increasingly dysfunctional, trapped in a cycle of poor quality and weak governance that cannot be solved by one man, no matter how much power he has.
Constitutional dark arts
The weakness stems from the hyper-centralization of power in Russia around the president.
This centralization is the product of an increasingly common logic that I call the “constitutional dark arts.” This logic generally holds that democracy and rights protection are best guaranteed in a constitutional system that centralizes authority in one elected leader. This line of thinking is present in many populist, authoritarian countries, such as Hungary and Turkey.
The foundation of this kind of system in Russia is the 1993 Constitution. It was drafted by then-President Boris Yeltsin and his supporters (many in the West) as an expedient for dismantling communism and implementing radical economic reforms. As such, it contains a number of rights provisions and democratic guarantees, alongside provisions that centralize vast power in an elected Russian president.
Yeltsin (and his Western supporters) described this system as democratic because it made the president answerable to the people. They also argued that rights provisions would allow courts to limit any abuses by the centralized state.
These reformers hoped Yeltsin could use this concentrated power to build democracy in Russia. Thirty years later, however, we can see how this use of the “constitutional dark arts” backfired spectacularly.
Since 2000, Putin has ruthlessly deployed this centralized authority to eliminate any checks on power. He has also transformed elections, the media and the courts from sources of accountability into mechanisms to project the image of strong presidential power.
The upcoming presidential election is just the most recent example.
Poor quality governance
Although this centralized system has allowed Putin to dominate politics, it fosters weak and poor governance, particularly outside Moscow. At least two factors are at play.
First, centralized decision-making in Russia is often made using incomplete or false information. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is an example. It was based on intelligence that the operation would be over quickly and Ukrainians would likely welcome Russian forces.
Second, centralized directives are delegated to under-resourced, incompetent and weak institutions. Russia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was disastrous, in large part due to the poorly resourced regional authorities who were overwhelmed by a crisis of this scale.
This dysfunction has been a central message of the political movement led by the opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Before his death last month, Navalny and his team harshly criticized the corruption and weakness of the Russian regime and its inability to fix roads, provide healthcare and adequately pay teachers or doctors.
This message was potent, making Navalny the first opposition politician to build a broad coalition that spanned Russia’s 11 time zones.
This broad coalition frightened the Kremlin to such an extent that it led to Navalny’s poisoning in August 2020. Although it remains to be seen how his political movement responds to his death, this central criticism of the government remains one of its most potent messages.
Although it’s impossible to get independent polling on domestic issues during the Ukraine war, it does appear Putin and his administration are concerned about this weakness. In his Feb. 29 address to parliament, Putin tacitly acknowledged these problems, promising new national projects to improve infrastructure, support families and enhance the quality of life.
These kind of promises, however, are unlikely to be implemented. Putin has traditionally promised these kinds of changes around presidential elections. But, when it comes to implementing them, Russia’s regional sub-units are often given no resources to do so.
With so much money now going to the war, it is unlikely the latest set of promises will be any different.
Increasing dysfunction
With Putin soon to start his fifth presidential term, this centralization and personalization of power is only going to increase.
Externally, this centralization is likely to produce an increasingly unpredictable Russia, led by a man making decisions on the basis of an increasingly paranoid world view and incorrect or manipulated information. As former German Chancellor Angela Merkel once described Putin, he is really “living in another world.”
This is likely to lead to more foreign policy adventurism and aggression. It will likely foster harsher repression of any dissenting voices inside Russia, as well.
We are also likely to see an increasingly dysfunctional Russia, one in which roads, housing, schools, healthcare and other infrastructure will continue to deteriorate, particularly outside Moscow.
This extends to the military, which remains weak despite its recent battlefield gains. For instance, Russia’s overly centralized command structure has decimated the officer class and led to stunning losses of equipment. Although Russia has managed to muddle through by relying on its vast human and industrial resources, these systemic problems are taking a serious toll on its fighting capacity.
Despite escalating repression, these problems pose an opportunity for a democratic challenger, particularly when Putin is inevitably replaced by another leader.
Russia’s dysfunctional government is also an important reminder for Western media, policymakers and commentators. While it should not serve as a reason for complacency, highlighting Russia’s poor governance is an important tool in combating the Kremlin’s carefully curated image of power and control.The Conversation
GOP nominee to run North Carolina public schools called for violence against Democrats, including executing Obama and Biden
Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck – March 14, 2024
From Michele Morrow/Facebook
The Republican nominee for superintendent overseeing North Carolina’s public schools and its $11 billion budget has a history marked by extreme and controversial comments, including sharing baseless conspiracy theories and frequent calls for the execution of prominent Democrats.
Michele Morrow, a conservative activist who last week upset the incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction in North Carolina’s Republican primary, expressed support in 2020 for the televised execution of former President Barack Obama and suggested killing then-President-elect Joe Biden.
In other comments on social media between 2019 and 2021 reviewed by CNN’s KFile, Morrow made disturbing suggestions about executing prominent Democrats for treason, including Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Hillary Clinton, Sen. Chuck Schumer and other prominent people such as Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates.
“I prefer a Pay Per View of him in front of the firing squad,” she wrote in a tweet from May 2020, responding to a user sharing a conspiracy theory who suggested sending Obama to prison at Guantanamo Bay. “I do not want to waste another dime on supporting his life. We could make some money back from televising his death.”
In another post in May 2020, she responded to a fake Time Magazine cover that featured art of Obama in an electric chair asking if he should be executed.
“Never. We need to follow the Constitution’s advice and KILL all TRAITORS!!! #JusticeforAmerica,” she wrote.
CNN reached out to Morrow and her campaign multiple times but did not receive a response.
From activist to candidate
Last Tuesday, Morrow defeated Catherine Truitt, the incumbent North Carolina Superintendent of Public Instruction, in the Republican primary. Morrow, a registered nurse and grassroots activist who homeschooled her children, ran on a platform of supporting parental rights and opposing critical race theory.
As superintendent, Morrow would oversee the state’s public school system and help set educational priorities, manage the school system’s budgets, and work with the state’s Board of Education to set and implement curriculum standards. Her website lists endorsements by “conservative school boards” but remains light on changes she’d make if elected.
In a campaign speech in February, Morrow advocated for a constitutional amendment to abolish the state Board of Education, which sets policies and procedures for public schools in the state. Doing away with the board would put direct control over the state’s education agenda under the superintendent and the state legislature, which is currently controlled by Republicans.
“I’d like to see a constitutional amendment to get rid of the state Board of Education,”she said. “If the superintendent is elected and works under the legislature – knowing that they’re accountable to the legislature to oversee the DPI and to oversee and have impact into the superintendents in the 115 districts, I think we would be so much better off because you don’t have all these extra people right in mix.”
Morrow has espoused a wide range of extreme views on social media in recent years. Many of her past extreme comments were made on her now-dormant personal Twitter account — which is separate from her campaign account.
Morrow also promoted QAnon slogans and tweeted that the actor Jim Carrey was “… likely searching for adrenochrome” – a reference to a conspiracy theory shared by QAnon believers that celebrities harvest and drink the blood of children to prolong their own lives. Media Matters, a left-leaning publication, was first to report the QAnon tweets.
All together, Morrow tweeted “WWG1WGA” – the slogan that stands for “where we go one, we go all” and is commonly associated with the QAnon conspiracy – more than seven times in 2020.
Central to QAnon lore is the notion of the “Storm,” a belief there will be a day when thousands will purportedly be arrested, subjected to military tribunals, and face mass executions for their alleged crimes, with Donald Trump leading efforts to dismantle them alongside other QAnon “patriots.”
Violent fantasies about executing Democrats
Morrow’s post about publicly executing Obama was just one of numerous she has made espousing carrying out violent fantasies against Democrats.
On Twitter, the platform now known as X, and on the now-defunct conservative Twitter alternative, Parler, Morrow used the hashtag “#DeathtoTraitors” a combined 12 times – usually in relation to prominent Democrats.
In another post from July 2019, Morrow targeted Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar and other Democrats, suggesting their impending death for unspecified “treason.”
“@IlhanMN and her other law-hating Dems must be getting a little nervous. Are they just realizing the punishment for treason is death?!?” Morrow wrote.
In a post on Parler, Morrow used the hashtag #deathtotraitors in discussing the Democratic governors of North Carolina and New York, Cooper and Cuomo. Morrow publicized her Parler handle in a tweet and CNN found the deleted Parler posts on the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine.
“Our Communist sympathizer, Comrade Cooper, has the same plans for NC!Expose them NOW!Can we we see the CCP list, @SecPompeo??? #PrisonTimeforFederalCrimes #DeathToTraitors #FreeOurCitizens,” Morrow wrote in 2020, discussing restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In other posts on Parler, Morrow shared posts from other users and a QAnon account about locking up Democrats at Guantanamo Bay and prisons.
Morrow’s ire also went beyond Democrats, including one post in December 2020 calling for putting Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia in prison after he certified Georgia’s results for Joe Biden in that year’s presidential election.
Shared conspiracies and made anti-Muslim comments
In other comments, Morrow repeatedlyshared the false claim that Obama was Muslim, called Islam evil, and expressed belief in a conspiracy theory that tens of thousands of Chinese troops were stationed in Canada to invade the United States to help Joe Biden become president.
“Tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers are already in Canada and probably Mexico waiting for orders to invade,” she wrote on January 8, 2021.
In another post from September 2019, Morrow said that Barack Obama (referred to as B.O.) was a puppet for the “Deep State” and the “Muslim movement” and suggested he pay the highest penalty for his alleged crimes.
“B.O. was a puppet for the Deep State and the Muslim movement to destroy our Constitutional Republic. We cannot give up until ALL the guilty pay the highest penalty for their crimes. We will lose our country #SAVEOURNATION #JusticeForAll #TraitorsMustPay
“The DEEP STATE globalists and Muslim extremists, intent on destroying America, placed Omar and MANY others into our govt. #WakeUpAmerica #IslamIsEvil #ToleranceIsDeadly,” she wrote in January 2020.
In one post, Morrow said Muslims should be banned from elected office in the United States and said Rep. Omar, who came to the United States as a refugee, should, “head back to Somalia.”
Vote against Trump, former supporters urge in $50m video campaign
Lauren Aratani – March 13, 2024
Donald Trump’s role in the January 6 insurrection is cited by many former supporters as a key factor in turning them against the former president. Photograph: Sam Navarro/USA Today Sports
An anti-Donald Trump group of Republicans is launching its second campaign against the former president, spending $50m and using testimonials from former supporters in an attempt to convince voters to turn away from Trump.
This week, Republican Voters Against Trump released 100 videos recorded by anti-Trump Republicans explaining why they no longer support him.
Sarah Longwell, president of Republican Accountability political action committee, which is behind the campaign, explained the logic behind the effort in a press release on Tuesday.
“Traditional Republican voters who have long supported the party but have concerns about Donald Trump proved decisive in the 2020 election. By targeting these voters and reaching them with credible messengers, the campaign will establish a permission structure for them to withhold their support from Trump again,” she said.
“This will help re-create the anti-Trump coalition that made the margin of victory in 2020 and holds the key to 2024.
The group ran the same unconventional ad campaign against Trump in 2020, when it ultimately received over a thousand homemade testimonials on its website.
“One of the reasons they are so compelling is because you can tell how authentic they are, how deeply they feel this – a lot of them want to get something off their chest,” Longwell told the Guardian in 2020.
Longwell told the New York Times in a piece published on Tuesday that she had raised $20m so far for 2024 and hoped to raise the rest of the $30m before the election in November. The group has received large donations from anti-Trump billionaires, according to Forbes, including the Democratic donor and co-founder of LinkedIn Reid Hoffman and John Pritzker, a member of the family that owns the Hyatt hotel chain.
In many of the videos, former supporters say that the January 6 Capitol insurrection turned them against Trump.
“January 6 was the end of Donald Trump for me. I could not believe what was happening before my eyes – watching what was an insurrection at the Capitol, which was, in my mind, unquestionably led by Donald Trump,” Ethan, a former Trump supporter from Wisconsin, said in one video.
Chuck, a supporter from Nebraska, similarly said that he “completely 100% hold[s] him accountable for the insurrection”.
“I will vote Democrat. I can’t believe I’m saying it. But I will not ever support or vote for Donald Trump ever. I’ll vote for Joe Biden,” Chuck said.
Many other supporters similarly express disbelief at Trump’s popularity with the Republican party, often saying that Biden is the first Democrat they have ever supported.
“Now, I understand that a lot of people say, ‘Oh, well look at maybe Joe Biden in his past,’ and you hear that ‘Oh, everyone’s corrupt and has got a torrid past,’” said Paul, a voter in North Carolina, in his testimonial. “Maybe Joe Biden does, something he lied about many years ago about his record, but he’s not even in the same league as Trump as far as all the different lies.”
Longwell said in the release this week that she believed “former Republicans and Republican-leaning voters hold the key to 2024”.
“Whatever their complaints about Joe Biden – Donald Trump is too dangerous and too unhinged to ever be president again,” she said. “Who better to make this case than the voters who used to support him?”
Trump Hit With Harsh Truth After Harsh Truth From Former Voters In Scathing Ads
Lee Moran – March 13, 2024
Republicans who have in the past voted for Donald Trump explain exactly why they will never do so again in a damning series of testimonials released this week by the Republican Accountability PAC.
The conservative political action committee is spending $50 million on its Republican Voters Against Trump campaign to spotlight “real former Trump voters making the case for why they won’t support him in November,” according to a news release.
In a video released Tuesday, one- and two-time Trump voters reel off a long list of reasons for not backing the former president as he seeks to retake the White House.
They condemn the twice-impeached Trump as the “biggest threat to our democracy,” “responsible for the violence” at the 2021 U.S. Capitol riot, and more.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ahBKWQssQ5o%3Frel%3D0
In another video, a Virginia Republican named Beth explains how the Trump-instigated riot was “like a sucker punch” and made her realize “this is not the party that I thought we had.”
Trump’s 2021 decision to throw then-Vice President Mike Pence “under the bus and … to the wolves and the lions” for not helping him overturn the 2020 election result made Beth “sick to my stomach,” she says.
She says she’d back any rival if Trump’s “evil” is on the ballot, and acknowledges that President Joe Biden’s administration has been “a bit refreshing.”
“I’ll take kind, older man any day over the tyrant,” she says.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Cxqw4wzkGOQ%3Frel%3D0
A third clip shows a man named Dennis, identified as a former service member, condemning Trump for reportedly making derogatory comments about U.S. veterans and war dead.
Trump only thinks about protecting himself, he says.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=NcC80GCSOVQ%3Frel%3D0
The Republican Accountability PAC is one of multiple conservative groups seeking to prevent Trump from returning to the White House.
Its campaign will particularly focus on states that are “‘blue wall’ battlegrounds,” per the news release, with the goal of re-creating “the anti-Trump coalition that won in 2020 by targeting soft GOP voters and Republican-leaning independents.”
“Former Republicans and Republican-leaning voters hold the key to 2024, and reaching them with credible, relatable messengers is essential,” read a statement from Sarah Longwell, the president of the Republican Accountability PAC.
“It establishes a permission structure that says that—whatever their complaints about Joe Biden—Donald Trump is too dangerous and too unhinged to ever be president again,” Longwell explained. “Who better to make this case than the voters who used to support him?”
The videos will air “on TV, streaming, radio, billboards, and digital media,” according to the group. However, while such ads attacking Trump (especially from conservatives) have gone viral in recent years, their actual effect on swaying voters remains up for debate.
Trump tried to move assets to Florida, NY officials complain in fraud-judgment filing
Laura Italiano – March 13, 2024
GOP presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump, campaigning in Georgia.Reuters/Alyssa Pointer
`Donald Trump has promised not to sneak assets out of New York as he appeals his civil-fraud judgment.
But officials say he recently tried to change the addresses of major assets from New York to Florida.
They say the attempt proves Trump can’t be trusted to give a mere IOU for the money he owes.
Donald Trump tried — but failed — to switch the addresses of key assets from Trump Tower in New York to Florida, officials with the New York attorney general’s office say in their latest civil-fraud-case filing.
State officials complained in the new filing that days after losing the 11-week fraud trial, Trump’s lawyers “announced for the first time that various entity defendants operating in New York are allegedly now located on a golf club in Florida.”
Trump attempted to switch the Trump Tower addresses of several key assets to new addresses in Florida, state officials allege. Business Insider
Lawyers for state Attorney General Letitia James say the attempted “relocation” effort proves Trump cannot be believed when he promises his assets will never be “secreted” out of New York.
“Defendants attempted that relocation even as they claim to this Court that those assets ‘cannot be summarily disposed of or secreted out of the jurisdiction,'” the attorney general’s lawyers wrote, quoting Trump’s own past assurances in their new filing, which totals 132 pages.
The filing asks a Manhattan appellate court to order Trump to post an appeal bond for the entirety of what he owes New York in fraud penalties.
Trump has asked the appellate court to let him post a bond covering only a fraction of that massive sum; he promises to pay the full amount later if he loses on appeal.
State officials have now countered that unless he’s forced to set the money aside now in the form of a “full bond,” there’s a “significant risk” Trump will try to evade paying down the road.
“Absent a full bond or deposit, OAG would be highly prejudiced and likely forced to expend substantial public resources to execute the judgment if it is affirmed on appeal,” James’ lawyers wrote, using the acronym for the office of the attorney general.
An excerpt from a new filing by the New York attorney general’s office.Business Insider
The appellate court may not rule on Trump’s request for permission to post a lower bond for several weeks. Given the court’s March 18 deadline for written arguments, a decision may come during Trump’s felony hush-money trial, set to begin in Manhattan on March 25 and span some six weeks.
And there could be wider ramifications if state officials continue to find ongoing financial misconduct.
The judge in Trump’s New York civil trial and lawyers for the attorney general’s office said repeatedly that Trump seemingly could not stop committing fraud, even during a four-year state investigation and a resulting lawsuit and trial that disclosed a decade of fraudulent financial filings.
If court-imposed monitoring continues to uncover ongoing misconduct, Trump risks additional penalties, including “the restructuring and potential dissolution” of his properties, as state Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron warned in his February 16 verdict.
‘Corrected’ addresses
It was on February 21, five days after the verdict, that Trump’s lawyers disclosed what they called the “corrected” addresses for six Trump assets that were named as defendants in James’ lawsuit.
“Several of the addresses for the Defendants in the proposed Judgment are incorrect,” the defense lawyer Clifford S. Robert wrote in the letter to Engoron.
One such defendant is the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust — an umbrella trust that owns 100% of Trump’s business empire, also known as the Trump Organization.
The last known business address for this New York-registered trust is Trump Tower in Manhattan, James says. But the defense lawyer’s February 21 letter to Engoron claimed the trust’s actual address was 1100 South Ocean Boulevard in West Palm Beach — meaning Mar-a-Lago.
Trump’s lawyers also tried to “correct” the addresses for a pair of Trump Organization holding companies that were also defendants in the case.
Like the trust, the holding companies use Trump Tower as their business address, James says — despite the February letter claiming that their “proper” address was the Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Florida.
Similarly, the February letter gave a Jupiter golf club business address for the Trump Old Post Office LLC, and said the business address for Trump’s Miami golf course was the address for the golf course itself. The AG has said Trump Tower is the actual business address for both properties.
Finally, Trump’s lawyers claimed the “proper address” for Trump Tower in Chicago — another defendant in the fraud case — was Trump’s Jupiter golf course rather than Trump Tower in New York.
In his final judgment, dated February 22, the judge uses the Manhattan Trump Tower address for all six of these defendants — not the Florida addresses Trump claimed.
Trump has said in appellate filings that he would have to sell property at a loss in order to post a bond approaching half a billion dollars. He recently posted a $92 million appeal bond to cover the defamation award he owes the writer E. Jean Carroll.
Correction: March 13, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the date of Trump’s fraud verdict, and the address he claimed for his Miami golf course. The verdict was reached on February 16, not 15.The business address Trump claimed for his Miami golf course was in Miami, not Jupiter, Florida.
Putin says he will re-deploy troops along Finland border in response to NATO accession
Paul Godfrey – March 13, 2024
Russian President Vladimir said Wednesday he would re-deploy military forces along the border with Finland in response to the country becoming a member of the NATO alliance in April. File Pool Photo by Alexander Zemlianchenko/EPA-EFE
March 13 (UPI) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he would re-deploy military forces along the border with Finland in response to the country becoming a member of the NATO alliance in April.
Putin made the threat in an interview with state media in response to what he said was Finland and Sweden’s “absolutely senseless step from the point of view of ensuring their own national interests.”
“We generally had ideal relations with Finland. Simply perfect. We did not have a single claim against each other, especially territorial, not to mention other areas. We didn’t even have troops; we removed all the troops from there, from the Russian-Finnish border,” he said.
“However, it is up to them to decide. That’s what they decided. But we didn’t have troops there, now we will.”
Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO together in 2022, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland officially joined the military alliance last April, while Sweden was forced to wait until last week amid holdouts by Hungary and Turkey.
Prime minister of Finland Petteri Orpo speaks during a joint press conference With President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi,in Kyiv, on Wednesday August 23, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photo by Ukrainian President Press Office/ UPI
Putin’s comments came as Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told the European Parliament in Strasbourg that the rest of the bloc must follow Finland’s example in ramping up security on its fringes.
He said hybrid threats to Finland, including Russia’s “worrisome” weaponization of migration by funneling people from third countries toward the Finland border, had forced his country to become a preparedness superpower.
“It is a status born out of necessity and reinforced by our history and geographical position. Finland stands ready to share our experiences of resilience and readiness,” Orpo told MEPs.
“We have developed comprehensive strategies that cover all sectors of society, from public to private. Our approach to preparedness includes not only physical defenses but also societal resilience, which is critical in facing both conventional and hybrid threats.”
He said he believed Finland’s model could provide valuable lessons for the European Union and that adopting similar “comprehensive and forward-thinking strategies” would boost the resilience of the entire EU.
Warning that if migrant numbers at the Finland-Russia border grew it would not only threaten national security but pose an existential threat to the bloc, Orpo called for an urgent review of existing EU legislation to ensure it was sufficiently robust to tackle the challenge of hybrid attacks.
“If it is not, then we must consider updating it to better suit the time we are living in. We must send a clear message: Europe is resolute in its defense, agile in its response, and firm in its commitment to the safety of its borders.”
Noting that deteriorating relations with Russia over the Ukraine war had impacted the border economy, effectively ending all tourism and cross-border trade, Orpo stressed that measures addressing the security of borders had to focus on the people living there.
He warned that unless the decline was reversed people would begin leaving those areas, presenting a grave threat to the security and stability of the EU.
Calling for EU-level policies aimed at revitalizing these areas and making them more secure against external threats, he said the security of the EU’s external border regions was “crucial” for national security and societal unity.
Finland’s border with Russia remains closed through April 14, after Helsinki last month extended the total closure of its eastern frontier, which it initially shut in November, for another two months saying it saw no change in Russia’s behavior.
“Finland’s eastern border remains closed due to Russia’s attempts to use instrumentalized migration against Finland. Russia is causing human suffering and using people as tools,” the interior ministry statement said in a statement posted on X.
“Russia is responsible for the situation.”
Finland’s Nov. 16 closure of the border was taken under its Border Guard Act to stop Russia from transporting undocumented migrants and dropping them off at the border.
“Obviously low IQ”: Former DHS official says “Donald Trump has apparent repeated memory lapses”
Chauncey DeVega – March 12, 2024
Donald Trump Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
During last week’s State of the Union speech, President Biden fired a series of broadsides against Donald Trump and his MAGA movement. President Biden fired off this opening salvo and the Republicans in the audience, and more generally, never recovered from it.
Not since President Lincoln and the Civil War have freedom and democracy been under assault here at home as they are today. What makes our moment rare is that freedom and democracy are under attack, both at home and overseas, at the very same time.
Overseas, Putin of Russia is on the march, invading Ukraine and sowing chaos throughout Europe and beyond. If anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you, he will not.
But Ukraine can stop Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons it needs to defend itself. That is all Ukraine is asking. They are not asking for American soldiers. In fact, there are no American soldiers at war in Ukraine. And I am determined to keep it that way. But now assistance for Ukraine is being blocked by those who want us to walk away from our leadership in the world. It wasn’t that long ago when a Republican President, Ronald Reagan, thundered, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.”
Now, my predecessor, a former Republican President, tells Putin, “Do whatever the hell you want.”
A former American President actually said that, bowing down to a Russian leader. It’s outrageous. It’s dangerous. It’s unacceptable.
Everyone was expecting a historic train wreck of a State of the Union last night and they got it. But it wasn’t the one they thought it would be. President Joe Biden’s address was powerful and dynamic and no doubt put a lot of timorous Democrats’ worries to rest (at least for a day or so.) It was Donald Trump’s highly touted response that failed dramatically.
Biden came out swinging and knocked the Republicans so far back on their heels that they had to completely abandon the image of him they’ve been building since 2020 — a man so old and feeble that he can’t even feed himself — and instead hilariously whimper about his loud macho aggression….Biden gave a barn burner of a speech that wasn’t boring, which is highly unusual for any president but especially unusual for a president many people have been convinced has one foot in the grave.
At the end of the State of the Union speech, President Biden made a bold move, landing another salvo on his critics and enemies, who are advancing the lie of a narrative that he is somehow “too old” or perhaps even “senile” and therefore should not seek a second term in office.
In my career I’ve been told I’m too young and I’m too old.
Whether young or old, I’ve always known what endures.
Our North Star.
The very idea of America, that we are all created equal and deserve to be treated equally throughout our lives.
We’ve never fully lived up to that idea, but we’ve never walked away from it either.
And I won’t walk away from it now.
My fellow Americans, the issue facing our nation isn’t how old we are, it’s how old our ideas are.
Hate, anger, revenge, retribution are among the oldest of ideas.
But you can’t lead America with ancient ideas that only take us back.
To lead America, the land of possibilities, you need a vision for the future of what America can and should be.
Tonight you’ve heard mine.
President Biden was clearly implying that it is actually Donald Trump, and not him, who especially in these last few days and weeks, has repeatedly shown that he appears to be facing serious cognitive challenges in terms of his speech, thinking, and memory.
Sounding the alarm about Trump’s growing dangerousness, Dr. John Gartner explained to me in a widely read conversation here at Salon that, “Not enough people are sounding the alarm, that based on his behavior, and in my opinion, Donald Trump is dangerously demented. In fact, we are seeing the opposite among too many in the news media, the political leaders and among the public. There is also this focus on Biden’s gaffes or other things that are well within the normal limits of aging. By comparison, Trump appears to be showing gross signs of dementia. This is a tale of two brains. Biden’s brain is aging. Trump’s brain is dementing”.
Dr. Gartner’s colleague, Dr. Harry Segal, who is a senior lecturer at Cornell University and Weill Cornell Medical School, even went so far to suggest that Donald Trump should withdraw from the 2024 presidential campaign.
At several events last week, as predicted by Dr. Gartner and his colleagues, President Trump continued to manifest apparent challenges in speech, memory, and cognition.
In an attempt to make better sense of Donald Trump’s obvious cognitive challenges and related behavior in the context of the country’s democracy crisis and the 2024 election, and what may happen next, I recently asked a range of experts for their thoughts and suggestions.
Will Bunch is a national opinion columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Clearly, Donald Trump is struggling to hold a coherent thought or find the proper word, and I notice it seems to be increasing every time he gives a speech. Everyone ages differently, and I think of my dad who just turned 87 and it totally lucid in conversation although he does occasionally forget a name (as do I, at 65!), I’m not at all an expert on brain health, but based on what’s observable and also the folks who are experts whose analyses I’ve read I think there’s a real problem.
Voters should have serious conversations about what it means to be president, what the real issues are around presidential health, and how Trump and Biden might be different from each other. Generally speaking, I think the Ronald Reagan “charismatic actor” reinvention of the presidency makes people forget that we’re actually electing the CEO of a massive organization, with smart people in corner offices channeling the policies and morals of the boss. No one is bombing Barbados instead of Syria because an aging president said the wrong thing. That said, I think Trump’s mental struggles should be taken seriously by voters because in his case it seems to be linked to his moods and his temperament. He’s promised a presidency of “retribution” and to surround himself with aides who can act on his whims. That’s concerning. But will most voters care? Probably not.
It feels like the lessons the mainstream media have taken from the Trump years are exactly the wrong ones: a doubling down on a bland and ultimately phony interpretation of “balance and objectivity.” It seems that occasionally going out on a limb and calling out Trump for some of his lies from 2017-2021 means they were salivating for a chance to prove they can be just as tough on Biden – whether or not he deserves it. For a time, that stalking horse was “inflation,” but the price increases cooled, and Biden got four years older, so here we are. So much of this is journalists indulging voters by focusing on style when the substance in this election is life or death for America.
Miles Taylor is a national security expert who served under the Trump administration as chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security. Writing as “Anonymous,” Taylor published the widely discussed 2018 New York Times op-ed “I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration.” Taylor’s most recent book is “Blowback: A Warning to Save Democracy from the Next Trump.”
Donald Trump is obviously a deeply troubled person. Strip away the politics and his biography, and any person who would spend time with the man would come to the same conclusion: he’s a sick person, devoid of any moral system beyond relentless self-aggrandizement. The self-interest colors his every interaction. The man’s eyes scan every room — and situation — opportunistically for leverage, for moments to advance himself at the expense of others. This has happened to the people closest to him … to his employees … and to the country.
On a more simple level, Donald Trump has apparent repeated memory lapses, difficulty synthesizing complex information, disinterest in nuance, and an obviously low IQ. He’s not a smart man, and some would say he shows clear signs of decline. If it were a screenplay, a wannabe gangster with dementia might be an oddball comedy. But on the national stage, it’s a civic tragedy.
Ultimately, the election is less about Trump than it ever was. It’s now about us. We elevated a man to the nation’s highest office, witnessed a truly innumerable string of incidents displaying his ineptitude and immorality, watched him attempt to subvert the Constitution and commit crimes, and now we are giving serious consideration to restoring him to that office. If that is what we are doing, one might say we deserve a second Trump presidency. Perhaps it will be enough to shock the conscience of our society that it’s time to renegotiate our social contract. Perhaps not.
Yes, Joe Biden has lost his step. It shows. But there’s no comparison between an elderly man and an authoritarian one.
Jared Yates Sexton is a journalist and author of the new book “The Midnight Kingdom: A History of Power, Paranoia, and the Coming Crisis.”
I see a deeply unwell person. I think sometimes we get lost in politics and forget to look at the situation as human beings. What we’re dealing with is an abusive, deteriorating man who is somehow even getting worse. Fascism feeds on that unwellness and accelerates the process until it leaves a husk, a host, and that’s what we’re watching in real time. Everything else stems from that and that, coupled with the rhetoric, tells a story we should all be listening to.
As I say all the time, a healthy political system and American society would have rejected Donald Trump in 2016 like so much bad food. That it didn’t betrays a sickness. What should happen is a complex series of legal consequences and systematic expulsions. On a political level, a complete rejection by the electorate and movement toward something reconciliatory.
Biden’s age is an issue. We should be concerned about the fitness of a president. The media obsession is simply the same thing that propelled the e-mail debacle. Lazy journalism mixed with the neoliberal refusal to wrestle with itself. They want a right-wing turn in their bones but aren’t even conscious about it. These cycles give themselves away after a while.
Investigative reporter Heidi Siegmund Cuda writes about US politics and culture at her Substack newsletter and for Byline Times, and Byline Supplement.
I do my best not to watch the spectacle of Trump. He’s an avatar for the destruction of our country and America as a reliable ally, and his “moth to flame” circuses have turned us into stock characters — the outraged or the devoted. But it’s impossible to not see the clips of his antics, and yes, the obvious sloppy, sweaty decline is notable. But always when we’re watching a propagandist in action — how much is organic and how much is miming Vincent the Chin’s ‘bathrobe shuffle’? It behooves him to be “losing it” when committing crimes, and this cat has had more than nine lives. He detonates narrative warfare wherever he goes, so it’s difficult to decipher what is planted to create spectacle to feed the mangy cult and what is a true trash fire of a human.
The more critical framing for me is what it says about us that a man who led an insurrection, is an adjudicated sex assaulter, a convicted fraud, an agent of Russian disinformation who engaged in a cover up of his own nefarious activity, and a likely superspreader of America’s most guarded secrets, is a political party’s frontrunner. I guess I don’t care if he mispronounces “Venezuela” while appearing to get high on his own supply, I care about the fascism. Project 2025 is a fascist endeavor.
If we were a healthy society, we would prioritize a return to decency and the rule of law. We would swiftly arrest Donald Trump and his co-conspirators for their complicity in an attempted coup, which somehow this country seems to have forgotten. I’m tired of limited hangouts — I’m tired of small sentences for big crimes, and convictions for minor players. I want to see this country standup against authoritarians and oligarchs, who are trying to remove all barriers to their unrestrained lust for power. From the moment Trump removed language to water down support for Ukraine at the 2016 RNC, his role has been to hand Ukraine to Russia, which he is now doing through his proxies like Mike Johnson. I bring this up because until we have a proper framework, we will be continually tilting at windmills. The proper framing is Trump, his proxies, and his handlers, are aiming to destroy the US as an international power. They are using narrative warfare as a battering ram, and we need to take back the narrative quickly. We need to bullhorn the stakes. Women will likely have to take the lead, because it’s our rights that are imperiled.
The media’s obsession with Biden’s age (“But His Age….”) is America getting caught in the trap of narrative warfare, yet again. “But His Age” is simply “But Her Emails” as we saw with Hillary Clinton — it’s a gaslighting mantra for simpletons who don’t want to think too hard about the fact that we are the targets of a global fascist criminal movement attempting to eviscerate democracy. The New York Times and cable news know this, and they’ve placed their bets on fascism. Big News is big business and big business has historically supported fascism. This is why we as independent members of the media must help shape the narrative. Our choice is literally good vs evil. We have a choice between decency and a vast criminal network — a choice between standing up for our imperfect democracy or succumbing to complete authoritarian capture. It’s not about age — by Biden’s side is a perfectly healthy vice president, who can capably handle the labor of democracy should he fall ill.
The 2024 election is not about anything other than decency — are we good people — is our President a good man — are we decent — do we know right from wrong. If we are decent, we will re-elect Joe Biden, we will do everything to help Ukraine defeat Russian imperialism. We will rebuke the cruelty of Trumpism and Putinism. We know that Trump is a cruel man. We knew that when he called immigrants ‘rapists’, called women “fat pigs”, “dogs”, and “disgusting animals”, mocked a disabled person, and ginned up violent rhetoric to encourage his MAGA base to kill Mike Pence. We must decide who we are. Are we decent?
Orbán says Trump won’t give ‘a penny’ to Ukraine after Mar-a-Lago meeting
BradDress – March 11, 2024
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said former President Trump would not give “a penny” to support Ukraine in its war against Russia after the two met at Trump’s Florida estate Mar-a-Lago last week.
Orbán told Hungarian news channel M1 that Trump wants peace in the Russian war against Ukraine, and the Hungarian leader said he backed his vision to achieve that.
“I don’t see any other person as determined and strong as Donald Trump,” Orbán told M1, saying Trump “will not give a single penny to the Ukrainian-Russian war, therefore the war will end.”
Trump has yet to publicly comment on the claims. In a Truth Social post, the former president praised Orbán for the meeting.
“Viktor is a Great Leader, respected all over the World,” Trump wrote.
Trump has repeatedly criticized spending on Ukraine, part of growing skepticism in the Republican Party. More conservative lawmakers in Congress have blocked Ukraine aid for more than a year.
Trump has said he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours, though he has remained ambiguous on how that would be achieved, sparking concerns that he would cede Ukrainian territory taken by Russian forces in the war.
Orbán added in the interview with M1 that “Trump has detailed plans for how to end the war, and they coincide with Hungary’s interests.”
Trump has also made a number of controversial comments about Russia. Shortly after the war began in 2022, Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin “savvy,” echoing his often warm remarks for the Russian leader during his time at the White House.
And this year, Trump said he would let Russia do “whatever the hell they want” to members of NATO that did not pay enough in defense spending.
Still, Trump, who has no major challenger left in the Republican primaries and is headed toward a general election rematch with President Biden, has not publicly said he would avoid giving money to Ukraine.
Orbán, a far-right leader who has also received criticism for his close relations with Putin, met Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday and Saturday in a high-stakes visit.
Biden slammed Trump for meeting with Orbán, who he criticized as a leader “looking for dictatorship.”
Hungary, a NATO member, has not provided any arms to Ukraine throughout the war. Orbán, who has frequently called for an end to the Ukraine war and met Putin in October, also said it would be “bad” if Biden were to win the election in November.
Moldova faces multiple threats from Russia as it turns toward EU membership, foreign minister says
Stephen McGrath and Aurel Obreja – March 10, 2024
Moldova’s Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi arrives for joint statements with Romanian counterpart Luminita Odobescu in Bucharest, Romania, Feb. 6, 2024. Moldova’s foreign minister says the past two years for his country have been the hardest and most tumultuous for European Union candidate Moldova in more than three decades as it faces threats from Russia in multiple spheres of public life. (AP Photo/Alexandru Dobre)
CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) — The past two years have been the hardest and most tumultuous for European Union candidate Moldova in more than three decades as it faces threats from Russia in multiple spheres of public life, the country’s foreign minister says.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, its neighbor Moldova has faced a litany of crises that have at times raised fears the country is also in Russia’s crosshairs. These included errant missiles landing on its territory; a severe energy crisis after Moscow dramatically reduced gas supplies; rampant inflation; and protests by pro-Russia parties against the pro-Western government. Moldova has also taken in the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita of any country.
“This past two years without exaggeration have been by far the most difficult in the past 30 years,” Mihai Popsoi, appointed foreign minister in late January, told The Associated Press in an interview.
Moldova gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but Russia continues to see the country — sandwiched between Ukraine and EU member Romania — as within its sphere of influence.
Moldovan officials have repeatedly accused Russia of conducting a “hybrid war” against the country — funding anti-government protests, meddling in local elections and running vast disinformation campaigns to try to topple the government and derail Moldova from its path toward full EU membership. Russia has denied the accusations.
Last week, Moldova’s national Intelligence and Security Services agency said it has gathered data indicating “unprecedented” plans by Moscow to launch a fresh and sprawling destabilization campaign as Moldova gears up for a referendum on EU membership and a presidential election later in the year.
“We know that the Kremlin is going to invest a lot of energy and financial resources through their proxies to try to get their way,” said Popsoi, a lawmaker from the governing Party of Action and Solidarity who also serves as deputy prime minister.
“They’re trying to bribe voters and use citizens to bribe them,” he added. “The Russians are learning and adapting, and they’re trying to use the democratic process against us … to topple a democratic government in Moldova.”
Tensions have also periodically soared in Moldova’s Russia-backed breakaway region of Transnistria — a thin strip of land bordering Ukraine that isn’t recognized by any U.N. member countries but where Russia maintains about 1,500 troops as so-called peacekeepers, guarding huge Soviet-era weapons and ammunition stockpiles.
Popsoi acknowledged that the situation with Transnistria is tense, and he worries that the speculation could adversely impact investment. “The situation will remain tense as long as the front line is 200 miles away,” he said.
The 37-year-old minister noted the testing period Moldova has been through has nevertheless also been transformative for his country, which has a population of about 2.5 million people.
“When we look at the energy security of Moldova, two years ago there was very little,” he said. “Now Moldova is quite independent or has alternatives and can choose where to buy gas and electricity.”
The same can be said, he added, for his country’s defense capabilities, the resilience of key institutions such as intelligence, police force, and justice reform. “Moldova is moving in the right direction despite enormous challenges.”
Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, says Moldova has faced a “constant onslaught” of Russian tests to probe weaknesses that might undermine its EU trajectory.
“It feels like a geopolitical race in which Russia is trying to stop Moldova from moving toward the EU, while Moldova tries to fend off Russian influence until it joins the EU,” he said, adding that the authorities “have been much more open about acknowledging the danger Russia presents to the country’s democracy.”
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova applied to join the EU and was granted candidate status in June 2022. In December, Brussels said it would open accession negotiations for both Moldova and Ukraine.
Although militarily neutral, non-NATO Moldova has boosted defense spending over the past year and recently approved a new national security strategy that identified Russia as a main threat and aims to raise defense spending to 1% of GDP.
“A significant number of Moldovans still live under the spell of Russian propaganda which has made a boogeyman out of NATO,” Popsoi said. “But that doesn’t stop us from cooperating with our NATO partners and building resilience in our armed forces.”
Since the war started, Moldova has received critical financial and diplomatic support from its Western partners but needs long-term investments, Popsoi said. The referendum later this year on EU membership aims to gauge where Moldovans see their future. Officials have an ambitious target of gaining full accession by 2030.
“We will do our utmost to make sure we get this message across that there is a better tomorrow and that is within the European Union,” Popsoi added. “No matter how hard Russian propaganda tries to convince our citizens of the opposite.”
After Trump ballot ruling, critics say Supreme Court is selectively invoking conservative originalist approach
Lawrence Hurley – March 10, 2024
WASHINGTON — Two years ago, conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch excoriated his conservative colleagues for ignoring history and the original understanding of the law in ruling for Oklahoma in a dispute over Native American tribal authority.
The 5-4 ruling against tribes “comes as if by oracle, without any sense of the history … and unattached to any colorable legal authority,” Gorsuch wrote in his dissenting opinion.
His complaint sounds a lot like the chorus of criticism from legal scholars on the left and right directed at the Supreme Court’s ruling last week that said states had no authority to kick former President Donal Trump off the presidential ballot.
For critics, it was just another example of how the conservative justices appear to selectively apply the legal methodology known as originalism, which focuses on the original meaning of the law at the time it was written.
The court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, was unanimous in ruling that Section 3 of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment cannot be enforced by states, but critics were quick to point out the absence of originalist arguments.
“What struck me is how much attention was devoted to questions of original meaning in the briefing and at oral argument and how cursory and frankly unpersuasive the discussion of the history was in the published opinion,” said Evan Bernick, a professor at Northern Illinois University College of Law.
J. Michael Luttig, a conservative former federal judge once considered as a potential Supreme Court nominee, said the decision was “a textbook example of judicial activism” that contained little originalist analysis.
“This is an abomination in every respect,” he added. “That’s just one of many respects.”
The ruling itself was unsigned and none of the conservative justices — including Gorsuch — wrote separately to explain their views.
This came as a disappointment to some self-professed originalists, who believe that Section 3 as written and understood at the time is self-executing, meaning that there is no requirement that legislation be enacted for it to be applied.
The legal argument that Trump could be barred from the ballot had been promoted in part by two conservative legal scholars, William Baude and Michael Paulsen, who wrote a law review article on the subject.
“In my view, the reasoning in the opinion is a disaster,” wrote Michael Rappaport, who leads the Center for the Study of Constitutional Originalism at the University of San Diego School of Law. He added that the ruling featured a “nonoriginalist, made-up argument.”
Rappaport argued in an email that the court is not an originalist court, but rather “one that sometimes decides things based on originalism.”
Defenders of the ruling have tended to focus on the outcome, which is aimed at preventing a cascade of similar actions throwing presidential candidates off the ballot in other states, rather than the methodology.
An adherence to originalism has long been favored in conservative legal circles, and Supreme Court nominees often claim to espouse it when appearing at their Senate confirmation hearings. But the conservative justices differ on the extent to which they apply it, if at all. Gorsuch and Justice Clarence Thomas are probably the most outspoken proponents among the current justices.
“Suppose originalism does lead to a result you happen to dislike in this or that case. So what?” Gorsuch wrote in his 2019 book “A Republic if You Can Keep It.”
At a 2020 event, Thomas said he aims to ensure the law makes sense to the average American.
“I think we are obligated when we interpret the people’s Constitution to make sense of it and be plainspoken,” he said. “I don’t think it’s that complicated.”
Liberal critics of the conservative majority have long taken aim at the court for ignoring originalist arguments that might lead to liberal outcomes or selectively applying them to reach conservative results.
They point in part to the ruling in 2022 that restricted abortion rights by overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade decision and last year’s ruling that struck down affirmative action programs in college admission as examples.
In an attempt to engage with originalists, lawyers presented arguments to counter the idea that abortion rights and race-conscious policies have no historical underpinnings in the law.
In both cases, “when text and history became inconvenient, a conservative majority was willing to scuttle” long-standing precedents, said Praveen Fernandes, vice president of the liberal Constitutional Accountability Center.
The court’s 2022 ruling that expanded gun rights by finding for the first time that there is a right to bear arms outside the home has also attracted scrutiny for its analysis of the history of gun rights.
With tongue in cheek, Michael Smith, a professor at St. Mary’s University School of Law, has taken the criticism to a new level in a soon-to-be-published law review article, “Is Originalism Bulls—?”
His conclusion? “Yes. You’re welcome.”
Smith said in an interview he was hoping to draw attention to how the court can pick and choose what methodology to use in a particular case, which the justices can then say leads inevitably to a specific outcome.
“I think those proclamations are at best bulls—,” he said. “At worst, it could be an outright lie.”
