The Real Winner of the Afghan War? It’s Not Who You Think.

The Real Winner of the Afghan War? It’s Not Who You Think.

Pakistani police officers stand guard outside the compound where Osama bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan, May 5, 2011. (Warrick Page/The New York Times)
Pakistani police officers stand guard outside the compound where Osama bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan, May 5, 2011. (Warrick Page/The New York Times)

Just days after the Taliban took Kabul, their flag was flying high above a central mosque in Pakistan’s capital. It was an in-your-face gesture intended to spite the defeated Americans. But it was also a sign of the real victors in the 20-year Afghan war.

Pakistan was ostensibly America’s partner in the war against al-Qaida and the Taliban. Its military won tens of billions of dollars in American aid over the last two decades, even as Washington acknowledged that much of the money disappeared into unaccounted sinkholes.

But it was a relationship riven by duplicity and divided interests from its very start after 9/11. Not least, the Afghan Taliban the Americans were fighting are, in large part, a creation of Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI, which through the course of the war nurtured and protected Taliban assets inside Pakistan.

In the last three months as the Taliban swept across Afghanistan, the Pakistani military waved a surge of new fighters across the border from sanctuaries inside Pakistan, tribal leaders have said. It was a final coup de grâce to the American-trained Afghan security forces.

“The Pakistanis and the ISI think they have won in Afghanistan,” said Robert Grenier, a former CIA station chief in Pakistan. But, he warned, the Pakistanis should watch what they wish for. “If the Afghan Taliban become leaders of a pariah state, which is likely, Pakistan will find itself tethered to them.”

Pakistan’s already shaky reputation in the West is likely to plummet now, as the Taliban take over Afghanistan. Calls to sanction Pakistan have already circulated on social media. Absent foreign financing, Pakistan faces reliance on a jihadi drug trade encouraged by the new rulers in Kabul. A Taliban-run state on its border will no doubt embolden Taliban and other Islamist militants in Pakistan itself.

Not least, relations with the United States, already on the downslope, will unravel further. Aside from maintaining the stability of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, the Americans now have less incentive to deal with Pakistan.

So the question for the Pakistanis is what will they do with the broken country that is their prize? Already Pakistan, along with Russia and China, is helping fill the space the Americans have vacated. The embassies of the three nations have remained open since the Taliban seized Kabul.

A Pakistani protégé, Khalil Haqqani, a Taliban leader who was a regular visitor to Pakistan’s military headquarters in Rawalpindi, is one of the new rulers of Afghanistan.

Known to U.S. intelligence as the Taliban emissary to al-Qaida, Haqqani showed up in Kabul last week as their new chief of security, brazenly armed with an American-made M4 rifle, with a protection squad dressed in American combat gear.

“Governing a war-ravaged country will be the real test and imposing challenge especially as the Taliban have been a warring force, not one adept at governing,” Maleeha Lohdi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations, wrote in a column in The Dawn newspaper this week.

During the war the Americans tolerated Pakistan’s duplicitous game because they saw little choice, preferring to fight a chaotic war in Afghanistan to warring with nuclear-armed Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan’s ports and airfields provided the main entry points and supply lines for American military equipment needed in Afghanistan.

Pakistan did that, even as its spy agency provided planning assistance, training expertise and sometimes on the ground advice to the Taliban all through the war, American officials said.

Though Pakistan was supposed to be an American ally, it always worked toward its own interests, as nations do. Those interests did not include a large American military presence on its border, an autonomous Afghanistan with a democratic government it could not control or a strong and centralized military.

Rather, Pakistan’s goal in Afghanistan was to create a sphere of influence to block its archnemesis, India. The Pakistanis insist that India uses separatist groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army, operating from havens in Afghanistan, to stir dissent in Pakistan.

“The Pakistani Army believes Afghanistan provides strategic depth against India, which is their obsession,” said Bruce Riedel, a former South Asia adviser to the Bush and Obama administrations. “The U.S. encouraged India to support the American-backed Afghan government after 2001, fueling the army’s paranoia.”

The Pakistanis were incensed that former President Barack Obama visited India in 2015 but conspicuously boycotted Pakistan, he said.

During a visit to Washington this spring, Moeed Yusuf, the national security adviser to Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, stressed the need to eliminate the Indian presence in Afghanistan, Americans who met him said.

Yusuf is considered a moderate on the Pakistani political spectrum, and the Americans said they were struck by his vehemence on India’s role in Afghanistan.

When Indian diplomats were among the first foreigners to evacuate from Kabul, their departure was played in the Pakistani press as a singular victory.

The nexus between the Pakistanis and the victorious Haqqani was indisputable and indispensable to the Taliban victory, said Douglas London, a former CIA counterterrorism chief for South and Southwest Asia.

The head of the Pakistani Army, Qamar Javed Bajwa, and the head of the ISI, Hameed Faiz, met with Haqqani on a “recurring basis,” London said. The extended Haqqani family has long been known to live in the largely ungoverned areas of Pakistan along the Afghan border.

“All the time Bajwa was pressed by the U.S. to give up Khalil Haqqani and two other Haqqani leaders, and all the time, Bajwa would say, ‘Tell us where they are,’” said London, who has written an upcoming memoir of his CIA years, “The Recruiter.” “My favorite quote was when Bajwa said: ‘You just have to come to my office and we will go in a helicopter and we will go and pick them up.’”

Pakistan’s help, he said, encompassed a gamut of services. Safe havens in the borderlands of Pakistan, particularly in the city of Quetta, sheltered Afghan Taliban fighters and their families. Medical services treated wounded fighters, sometimes in hospitals in the major cities, Karachi and Peshawar. Free rein for the Haqqanis to run lucrative real estate, smuggling and other businesses in Pakistan kept their war machine churning.

The ISI usually kept its operatives out of the actual conflict, fearful that they might be captured in Afghanistan, delivering a smoking gun to the Americans, London said.

The ISI also provided the Taliban with assets that elevated their international status. The Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar traveled on a Pakistani passport to attend peace talks in Doha, Qatar, and to meet in Tianjin, China, with Wang Yi, the foreign minister.

“The Afghan Taliban would not be where they are without the assistance of the Pakistanis,” London said.

Washington’s relationship with Pakistan cooled after Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden in 2011 at a safe house located near a Pakistani military academy. Top American officials stopped visiting Pakistan and assistance was reduced.

But the Obama administration never said publicly what it suspected: that the Pakistani military knew all along that bin Laden was living with his extended family in Abbottabad, one of Pakistan’s best-known garrison towns.

If Washington had declared that Pakistan was harboring bin Laden, then Pakistan would have legally been a state sponsor of terrorism, and subject to mandatory sanctions like Iran, said Riedel, the former South Asia adviser to the Bush and Obama administrations.

That would have forced the Americans to end its support for Pakistan and that in turn, would have led Pakistan to stop American war supplies from transiting Pakistan, increasing the cost of the war.

The bin Laden raid played into long-standing fears within the Pakistani military that the Americans wanted to dismantle Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and would violate Pakistani territory to do it.

Despite the strained relations, the U.S. continues to work with Pakistan through the Department of Energy to help provide security for the weapons, and fissile material, said Toby Dalton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment.

But Pakistan is also agile in its alliances. China, a longtime patron of Pakistan — they call each other as “close as lips and teeth” — is investing heavily in Pakistani infrastructure.

Publicly, China says it is cheered to see the Americans exit Afghanistan, and is ready to step into the void, expanding its Belt and Road initiative into Afghanistan, where it hopes to extract minerals.

But privately, the Chinese are wary. Chinese workers in Pakistan have been killed in terrorist attacks, which could presage a rough ride in Afghanistan. And the Taliban prefer isolation to roads and dams that could serve to loosen their control on the population.

China is counting on Pakistan to serve as its facilitator in Afghanistan, said Sajjan Gohel, International Security Director of the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London.

“The Chinese appear confident that they will be able to secure more security guarantees from the Taliban,” Gohel said, “because of their mutual ties with Pakistan.”

Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton says it’s ‘impossible’ for Mike Pompeo to ‘rewrite history’ on his negotiations with the Taliban

Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton says it’s ‘impossible’ for Mike Pompeo to ‘rewrite history’ on his negotiations with the Taliban

Donald Trump Mike Pompeo John Bolton.JPG
John Bolton, right, Mike Pompeo, center, and President Donald Trump, left. REUTERS/Leah Millis 

  • Trump’s national security advisor John Bolton slammed Mike Pompeo over his negotiations with the Taliban.
  • Bolton said it was “impossible” to “rewrite history” about the Trump administration’s role in the Afghanistan pullout.
  • Pompeo and Trump have come under attack over their deal with the Taliban in February 2020.

Donald Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton criticized former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who negotiated a deal with the Taliban in February 2020, for distancing himself from the Afghanistan withdrawal.

“Trying to extricate yourself from this withdrawal is I think difficult if not impossible to do, especially to rewrite history about what actually happened,” Bolton told Politico in a report published Thursday. “I think that’s a prescription for Democratic attack ads that would be fatal to someone’s credibility.”

Pompeo and Trump have come under attack over their agreement with the Taliban, which stipulated that US troops be withdrawn from Afghanistan within 14 months on the condition that the militant group not turn the country into a terrorist base. At the signing ceremony in Qatar, Pompeo posed for photos alongside the Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar, who is anticipated to head the next Taliban government in Afghanistan.

At the time, critics blasted the Trump administration for excluding the Afghan government, saying it undercut its legitimacy. That criticism has been renewed amid the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and the collapse of the US-backed Afghan government on August 15.

Read more: We identified the 125 people and institutions most responsible for Donald Trump’s rise to power and his norm-busting behavior that tested the boundaries of the US government

Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security advisor from 2018 to 2019, has said both the Trump administration and President Joe Biden are responsible for the chaotic, ongoing removal of US troops from Afghanistan.

Other Republicans who have criticized Trump and Biden over the pullout include Reps. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Liz Cheney of Wyoming. H.R. McMaster, Trump’s national security advisor from 2017 to 2018, denounced Trump’s Taliban deal as a “surrender agreement.”

Pompeo and Trump have attempted to absolve themselves of the situation in Afghanistan and blamed Biden for the fallout.

“I hope this Administration comes to understand that apologizing, placating, appeasing, being weak, only presents risks to American security,” Pompeo tweeted on Thursday.

‘Was it worth it?’ A fallen Marine and a war’s crushing end

‘Was it worth it?’ A fallen Marine and a war’s crushing end

 

SPRINGVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — She was folding a red sweater when she heard a car door slam, went to the window and realized that a moment she always imagined would kill her was about to be made real: three Marines and a Navy chaplain were walking toward her door, and that could only mean one thing.

She put her hand on the blue stars she’d stuck next to the front door, a symbol meant to protect her son, Marine Lance Cpl. Alec Catherwood, who had left three weeks before for the battlefields of Afghanistan.

And then, as she recalls it, she lost her mind. She ran wildly through the house. She opened the door and told the men they couldn’t come inside. She picked up a flower basket and hurled it at them. She screamed so loud and for so long the next day she could not speak.

“I just wanted them not to say anything,” said Gretchen Catherwood, “because if they said it, it would be true. And, of course, it was.”

Her 19-year-old son was dead, killed fighting the Taliban on Oct. 14, 2010.

As she watched the news over the last two weeks, it felt like that day happened 10 minutes ago. The American military pulled out of Afghanistan, and all they had fought so hard to build seemed to collapse in an instant. The Afghan military put down its weapons, the president fled and the Taliban took over. As thousands crushed into the Kabul airport desperate to escape, Gretchen Catherwood felt like she could feel in her hands the red sweater she’d been folding the moment she learned her son was dead.

Her phone buzzed with messages from the family she’s assembled since that horrible day: the officer who’d dodged the flowerpot; the parents of others killed in battle or by suicide since; her son’s fellow fighters in the storied 3rd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment, nicknamed the Darkhorse Battalion, that endured the highest rate of causalities in Afghanistan. Many of them call her “Ma.”

Outside of this circle, she’d seen someone declare “what a waste of life and potential” on Facebook. Friends told her how horrible they’d felt that her son had died in vain. As she exchanged messages with the others who’d paid the price of war, she worried its end was forcing them to question whether all they had seen and all they had suffered had mattered at all.

“There are three things I need you to know,” she said to some. “You did not fight for nothing. Alec did not lose his life for nothing. I will be here for you no matter what, until the day I die. Those are the things I need you to remember.”

In the woods behind her house, the Darkhorse Lodge is under construction. She and her husband are building a retreat for combat veterans, a place where they can gather and grapple together with the horrors of war. There are 25 rooms, each named after one of the men killed from her son’s battalion. The ones who made it home have become their surrogate sons, she said. And she knows of more than a half-dozen who have died from suicide.

“I am fearful of what this might do to them psychologically. They’re so strong and so brave and so courageous. But they also have really, really big hearts. And I feel that they might internalize a lot and blame themselves,” she said. “And oh God, I hope they don’t blame themselves.”

The 3rd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment deployed in the fall of 2010 from Camp Pendleton, California, sending 1,000 U.S. Marines on what would become one of the bloodiest tours for American service members in Afghanistan.

The Darkhorse Battalion spent six months battling Taliban fighters in the Sangin district of Helmand province. An area of green fields and mud compounds, Sangin remained almost entirely in the Taliban’s control nearly a decade into the U.S.-led war. Fields of lush poppies used in narcotics gave the militants valued income they were determined to hold.

When the Marines arrived, white Taliban flags flew from most buildings. Loudspeakers installed to broadcast prayers were used to taunt U.S. forces. Schools had closed.

The Marines came under fire as soon as a helicopter dropped them outside their patrol base.

“When the bird landed, we were already getting shot at,” recalled former Sgt. George Barba of Menifee, California. “We run, we get inside and I remember our gunnery sergeant telling us: `Welcome to Sangin. You just got your combat action ribbon.’”

Snipers lurked in the trees. Fighters armed with rifles hid behind mud walls. Homemade bombs turned roads and canals into deathtraps.

Sangin was Alec Catherwood’s first combat deployment. He had enlisted in the Marines while still in high school, went to boot camp shortly after graduation, then was assigned to a 13-man squad led by former Sgt. Sean Johnson.

Johnson was impressed by Catherwood’s professionalism — physically fit, mentally tough and always on time.

“He was only 19, so that was extra special,” Johnson said. “Some are still just trying to figure out how to tie their boots and not get yelled at.”

Catherwood also made them laugh. He carried around a small, stuffed animal he used as a prop for jokes.

Barba recalled Catherwood’s first helicopter ride during training, and how he was “smiling ear-to-ear and he’s swinging his feet like he’s a little kid on a highchair.”

Former Cpl. William Sutton of Yorkville, Illinois, swore Catherwood would crack jokes even during a firefight.

“Alec, he was a shining light in that darkness,” said Sutton, who was shot multiple times fighting in Afghanistan. “And then they took it from us.”

On Oct. 14, 2010, after a late night standing watch outside their patrol base, Catherwood’s squad headed out to assist fellow Marines under attack, who were running low on ammunition.

They crossed open fields, using irrigation canals for cover. After sending half his squad safely ahead, Johnson tapped Catherwood on the helmet and said: “Let’s go.”

After running just three steps, he said, gunfire from ambushing Taliban fighters sounded behind them. Johnson looked down and saw a bullet hole in his pants where he had been shot in the leg. Then came a deafening explosion — one of the Marines had stepped on a hidden bomb. Johnson blacked out momentarily, waking up in the water.

Another explosion followed. Looking to his left, Johnson saw Catherwood floating facedown. It was obvious, he said, that the young Marine was dead.

Explosions during the ambush killed another Marine, Lance Cpl. Joseph Lopez of Rosamond, California, and badly wounded another.

Back in the United States, Staff Sergeant Steve Bancroft began an excruciating two-hour drive toward Catherwood’s parents’ house in northern Illinois. He’d served seven months in Iraq before he became a casualty assistance officer, tasked with notifying families of a death on the battlefield.

“I’d never wish that on anybody, I can’t express that enough: I do not wish looking a mom and dad in the face and telling them their only son is gone,” said Bancroft, who is now retired.

He was stoic when he had to be, as he escorted families to Dover, Delaware, to watch coffins be rolled out of a plane. But when he was alone, he cried. And he still weeps when he thinks about the moment he arrived at the home of Gretchen and Kirk Catherwood.

They laugh now about the hurled flowerpot. He still regularly talks to them and other sets of parents he notified. Though he never met Alec, he feels like he knows him.

“Their son was such a hero, it’s hard to explain, but he sacrificed more than 99% of the people in this world would ever think of doing,” he said.

“Was it worth it? We lost so many people. It’s hard to think about how many we’ve lost.” he said.

Gretchen Catherwood keeps the cross her son was wearing on a chain around her bedpost with his dog tags.

Alongside it hangs a glass bead, blown with the ashes of another young Marine: Cpl. Paul Wedgewood, who made it home.

The Darkhorse Battalion returned to California in April 2011. After months of intense fighting, they’d largely seized Sangin from the Taliban’s grip. Leaders of the provincial government could move about safely. Children, including girls, returned to school.

It came at a heavy price. In addition to the 25 who perished, more than 200 returned home wounded, many with lost limbs, others with scars harder to see.

Wedgewood had trouble sleeping when he finished his four-year enlistment and left the Marine Corps in 2013. As he slept less, he drank more.

A tattoo on his upper arm showed a sheet of scroll paper bearing the names of four Marines who died in Sangin. Wedgewood considered reenlisting, but told his mother: “If I stay, I think it’ll kill me.”

Instead, Wedgewood enrolled in college back home in Colorado, but soon lost interest. A welding program at a community college proved a better fit.

Wedgewood had been diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder. He was taking medication, participating in therapy.

“He was very engaged in working on his mental health,” said the Marine’s mother, Helen Wedgewood. “He was not a neglected veteran.”

Still, he struggled. On the Fourth of July, Wedgewood would take his dog camping in the woods to avoid fireworks. He quit a job he liked after a backfiring machine caused him to dive to the floor.

Five years after Sangin, things appeared to be looking up. Wedgewood was preparing for a new job that would take him back to Afghanistan as a private security contractor. He seemed to be in a good place.

After a night of drinking with his roommates, Wedgewood didn’t show up for work on Aug. 23, 2016. A roommate later found him dead in his bedroom. He had shot himself. He was 25 years old.

He left a short note.

“He basically said that he loved us, but he was tired,” Helen Wedgewood said.

She considers her son and others who took their own lives to be casualties of war every bit as much as those killed in action.

When the Taliban swept back into control of Afghanistan just before the fifth anniversary of her son’s death, she felt relief that a war that left more than 2,400 Americans dead and more than 20,700 wounded had finally come to an end. But there was also sadness that gains made by the Afghan people — especially women and children — may be temporary.

“As a mom, this kind of stabs you, because would he still be around, would any of these young men still be around if this whole war hadn’t happened?” she said. “But I try to gently correct people when they say this was a waste or this was all for nothing. Because that’s not true. We don’t know what impacts it’s had on the safety of our country, on the safety of the Afghan people.”

Some who served with the Darkhorse Battalion are having a hard time seeing it any way other than that their efforts, their blood and the lives of their fallen friends were all for nothing.

“I’m starting to feel like how the Vietnam vets felt. There was no purpose to it whatsoever,” said Sutton, 32, who now works in the veterans services office of a county outside Chicago, helping military vets get care.

“We were able to hold our head up high and say we went to the last Taliban stronghold and we gave them hell,” Sutton said, “only for it all to be taken away. In the blink of an eye.”

Barba, 34, works as a private security guard near Los Angeles. He and his wife are expecting their first child. He said he’s had trouble sorting his feelings about the bleak news from Afghanistan. His wife recently woke to Barba screaming in his sleep. “I think your nightmares are back,” she told him.

“It really is weird,” Barba said. “I’ve seen my guys get mad. I’ve seen my guys get frustrated. But not like this. This is like somebody spit in their face.”

Johnson, 34, works as a commercial diver in Florida. He said the U.S. should have acknowledged years ago that the Afghan security forces Americans trained and equipped would never be able to defend the country on their own.

“My personal opinion, yeah, we probably should have pulled out years and years ago,” Johnson said. “If you’re not going to win the damn thing, what are you doing there?”

A few months ago, Gretchen Catherwood was painting the cabins that will become the Darkhorse Lodge. It was dark, still without electricity and no cell service, so it was quiet. She felt suddenly like she could feel her son and his 24 fallen comrades. She could almost see their faces.

“It’s a place where I can feel like they’re together,” she said, “and that they are still caring for their brothers.”

The Catherwoods moved out of their home in Illinois. Every time she walked to the front door, Gretchen remembered those four men arriving with the news. She couldn’t bear it anymore.

The gold star pins she wore everyday on her chest kept breaking. She’d always disliked tattoos and hassled her son when he got one as a Marine. But then she found herself at a tattoo parlor. She had his name inked on her arm, and the shape of a gold star pin put permanently on her chest, just above her heart, so she’d never take it off again.

She could no longer care for her son, she said, but she could for those who made it home. She and her husband moved to the woods in Tennessee and got to work on the Darkhorse Lodge.

They fashioned their logo after the battalion’s mascot, a fierce-looking horse, facing left, its mane sharp like a serrated knife and its eyes squinted for battle. The artist who drew theirs softened its edges and turned it to the right, facing toward a future after war.

They raised a million dollars, mostly in small donations. One woman sends a check for $2 every month. Bancroft, the officer who notified her of her son’s death, donates every year. The obituary for one soldier who died by suicide asked for donations to the Darkhorse Lodge in his memory, and checks flooded the Catherwoods’ mailbox.

They hope to open next summer and offer free stays for any combat veteran from any war or branch of the military who might benefit from time in the woods, where the only conflict is among the dozens of hummingbirds fighting over the feeders on her front porch.

She is hopeful that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan means no one else will die on a battlefield there. But she also worries that it might rattle the vets who made it home, and who might already be struggling to make sense of what happened there and why.

“That’s a constant fear, it’s been my fear since they got back but now it’s even worse,” she said. “They experienced things that 99% of the country never will. I’ve never watched a friend die. I’ve never fought to the death. We are losing these people at a frightening, frightening rate to suicides, and we can’t afford to lose one more.”

She and her husband don’t believe that the chaotic end honors their son’s service, and are particularly troubled that some of the Afghan interpreters and others who helped the military for years might not make it out alive. But they also can’t imagine how it might have ended any other way, had the United States stayed in Afghanistan another year or five or 20.

Part of Alec Catherwood remains there, and for a while that bothered his mother.

When he was alive, she loved to touch his face. He had baby soft skin and when she put her hands on his cheeks, this big tough Marine felt like her little boy. The military did an honorable job making him look whole, she said. But when she touched his cheek as he laid in the casket, she touched a part that had been reconstructed – it wasn’t really him.

“That used to be much harder than it is now,” she said. “Now, it’s like, damn straight, he’s still there. He’s always going to have a presence there, flipping off the Taliban.”

Good things will grow where he is, she likes to think.

“He’s part of their dirt, their soil, he’s part of the Earth there, he is forever there.”

Bynum reported from Savannah, Georgia.

Drought worsens in Southern California, with Ventura County in worst category

Drought worsens in Southern California, with Ventura County in worst category

Ojai, Calif. -- Tuesday, June 22, 2021: Aerial view of Lake Casitas near Ojai, Calif., on June 22, 2021. (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)
An aerial view of Lake Casitas near Ojai in Ventura County shows a receding waterline on June 22. (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

 

As sweltering drought conditions continue to worsen throughout California, Ventura and other Southern California counties have shifted from “extreme” to “exceptional” drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

Along with Ventura County, northwest Los Angeles County, most of Kern County and the eastern portion of San Bernardino County are also in the federal report’s highest range, signifying “exceptional drought.” Almost all of California is facing detrimental drought conditions, with 50 of the state’s 58 counties under a state of emergency amid excessive drought conditions.

In Ventura County, Calleguas Municipal Water District officials have declared a water shortage, continuing their call to residents to conserve water.

“The board’s action urges residents, businesses and agencies in Metropolitan’s 5,200-square-mile service area to lower the region’s water demand to stave off more severe actions in the future, which could include restricting water supplies to Metropolitan’s 26 member agencies,” officials said in a statement Tuesday.

Officials at the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which supplies imported water to Calleguas Municipal Water District, said the state’s water supply has been “increasingly stressed by the extreme drought.”

Last week, the MWD issued a supply alert, calling on all of Southern California to conserve water amid the continued drought, a move that brings the state’s largest population center closer to tough water restrictions that have been imposed on communities elsewhere.

The alert came one day after U.S. officials declared the first-ever water shortage on the Colorado River, a key source of water for the region and one that supplies the Calleguas Municipal Water District, which serves approximately 75% of Ventura County.

In a statement released by MWD, board member Gloria D. Gray said the water management district has needed to begin tapping into its stored reservoirs, and continued to urge residents to conserve water.

“We don’t know what next year will bring. We must all find ways we can save even more so we have the water we need if this drought continues,” Gray said.

Last month, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office called for all California residents to voluntarily reduce their water consumption by at least 15%.

Metropolitan General Manager Adel Hagekhalil echoed Newsom’s call to residents to save water, stressing the need for California to come together to solve its water crisis.

“We are working with the governor’s office and water agencies throughout California to maximize available supplies,” Hagekhalil said. “We encourage Southern California to step up again, just as we have in the past, to do our part to reduce our region’s water use.”

Climate change made catastrophic flood more likely, study finds

Climate change made catastrophic flood more likely, study finds

 

One of the worst disasters in a summer full of extreme weather events — the Western European flooding in July — was made significantly more likely and more intense due to the impact of human-caused climate change, new research shows. More than 200 people lost their lives when rivers overflowed and roared through towns in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, washing away structures that had been standing for hundreds of years.

A Belgian government minister described the flood as “one of the greatest natural disasters our country has ever known.” As much as two months’ worth of rainfall fell in just two days, with some locations picking up nearly 8 inches.

The new study from a team of international scientists at World Weather Attribution has found that the European flooding event — even in today’s heated climate — would only be expected to occur once every 400 years in that part of the world. The study also found that the flood event was between 1.2 times and 9 times more likely than it would have been without climate change, and our warmer climate made it up to 19% more intense.

And the researchers warn, “these changes will continue in a rapidly warming climate.”

Rainfall totals from the mid-July European flood event in millimeters. / Credit: World Weather Attribution
Rainfall totals from the mid-July European flood event in millimeters. / Credit: World Weather Attribution

 

The factors the study takes into account involve fairly straightforward science. For instance, it’s well understood that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and dump more rain. The relationship is simple: for every 2 degrees Fahrenheit increase in global temperature, atmospheric water vapor increases by 8%.

In addition, the attribution study uses climate models to analyze local effects like the impact on convection (downpours) due to a warmer atmosphere. The study can then use computer modeling to compare heavy precipitation in today’s heated atmosphere with what they call a counter-factual world — one with cooler, pre-industrial-level temperatures. The difference between the heated and not-heated world tells scientists how impactful climate change has become.

While these numbers are impressive in their own right, they don’t tell the whole story. That’s because assessments like these focus on statistical and climate model analysis, which do not take into account the climate change impact on large scale weather patterns, like atmospheric steering currents known as the jet stream.

Climate change and the jet stream

The jet stream is a narrow river of air in the upper atmosphere which is responsible for steering storms around the globe and also separating cold air masses from warm air masses. In the case of the European floods there’s no debate that a very abnormal jet stream was a significant factor.

The jet stream at the time, from July 12 to 15, was so elongated, wavy and unstable that a piece of it broke off, forming what is called a cut-off low. These type of lows move very slowly, often dumping heavy precipitation over the same areas for a prolonged period of time.

You often hear us talk about the wavy jet stream. Here’s a good illustration of how this manifests in extreme weather, connecting the Europe flooding to the Heat Dome in the US West. Some scientists have found a connection between climate change and a more amp’d – wavy jet 1/…. pic.twitter.com/4rEZNHL3mg

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 17, 2021

Cut-off lows like the one in Europe can and do happen naturally. But they are made more likely when the jet stream is slower and more wavy. Many climate scientists believe that a warmer climate is indeed making the jet stream slower.

In 2018, Penn State climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann published a paper about changes in persistent extreme summer weather events, coining the rather technical term quasi-resonant amplification (QRA), which refers to large scale weather patterns that are more likely to be semi-stationary due to a warmer climate.

In an email to CBS News, Mann says although he doesn’t see evidence that QRA contributed to this flood event, “There’s no question that the overall slowing down of the summer jet stream did play a role.”

Mann calls attribution studies like this one “extremely conservative” and says that since its modeling doesn’t appear to have taken this factor into account, “it is likely understating the role climate change likely played here.”

Why was the impact of warming on the jet stream not included in the World Weather Attribution analysis? Simply put, jet stream dynamics are extremely complicated and hard to replicate in climate models. The jet stream also exhibits tremendous day-to-day and year-to-year variability in terms of its location, speed and degree of waviness. This makes determining the impact of climate change on the jet stream extremely challenging, especially for a rapid study like this.

The extent to which climate change is causing the jet stream is become slower and more “wavy” is one of the hottest debates in the climate community. There’s one camp of scientists who buy into a concept called the wavy jet stream — the idea that because the temperature contrast from the poles to the tropics is lessening, the jet stream slows down and becomes more meandering and curvy. There’s another camp, just as big, who disagree.

Although there is still no clear winner in this climate debate yet, there is one study, coincidentally published just two weeks before the European floods, which seems to be especially applicable. In their research, the authors not only take into account changing rain rates due to increased moisture and convection, but also the change in steering currents in the atmosphere.

Using extremely high resolution climate simulations, the authors were able to show that a future increase in precipitation extremes across Europe happens not only because of more moisture, but also due to slower storm movement of storms, which increases their duration in a given location. What they describe bears a striking resemblance to what happen in mid-July.

“Our results suggest such slow-moving storms may be 14x more frequent across land [in Europe] by the end of the century,” the study concludes. The authors say the main reason seems to be a reduced temperature difference between the poles and tropics, which weakens upper-level winds, especially in the fall.

But this impact of a slower, more amplified jet stream reverberates all around the globe. This past weekend in the U.S., record-breaking rainfall occurred both near the path of Henri in the New York City area and to a much larger degree in western Tennessee, where more than 17 inches of rain fell in 24 hours — a new state record.

Following a weekend of record-breaking rain after #Henri made landfall, @WeatherProf breaks down how climate change is intensifying these naturally occurring weather patterns. pic.twitter.com/iDNtam1OA8

— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) August 23, 2021

The Tennessee flooding, which claimed at least 22 lives, was not caused by a large weather system. Rather, it was caused by a very narrow band of heavy rain which got stuck over one small area for an extended period of time.

The result was an extremely rare event — one that would be expected to happen less than once every 1,000 years.

As seen in the graphic below, this can be blamed on a blocked weather pattern — a bumper-to-bumper traffic jam in the atmosphere — which extended well into the Atlantic Ocean and even Greenland. When nothing can move, heavy rain bands persist in the same spot.

This summer has featured a very amplified and wavy jet stream across the globe. One aspect of this type of pattern is a blocked flow, in which systems get stuck for extended periods of time.  / Credit: CBS News
This summer has featured a very amplified and wavy jet stream across the globe. One aspect of this type of pattern is a blocked flow, in which systems get stuck for extended periods of time. / Credit: CBS News

 

While the connection between climate change and extreme weather is still hard for science to put an exact number on, what this summer has made abundantly clear is that greenhouse warming from the accumulation of carbon emissions is amplifying extreme weather all over the globe. These extremes will only increase at a faster rate as the climate continues to warm.

Climate change made catastrophic flood more likely, study finds

Climate change made catastrophic flood more likely, study finds

One of the worst disasters in a summer full of extreme weather events — the Western European flooding in July — was made significantly more likely and more intense due to the impact of human-caused climate change, new research shows. More than 200 people lost their lives when rivers overflowed and roared through towns in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, washing away structures that had been standing for hundreds of years.

A Belgian government minister described the flood as “one of the greatest natural disasters our country has ever known.” As much as two months’ worth of rainfall fell in just two days, with some locations picking up nearly 8 inches.

The new study from a team of international scientists at World Weather Attribution has found that the European flooding event — even in today’s heated climate — would only be expected to occur once every 400 years in that part of the world. The study also found that the flood event was between 1.2 times and 9 times more likely than it would have been without climate change, and our warmer climate made it up to 19% more intense.

And the researchers warn, “these changes will continue in a rapidly warming climate.”

Rainfall totals from the mid-July European flood event in millimeters. / Credit: World Weather Attribution
Rainfall totals from the mid-July European flood event in millimeters. / Credit: World Weather Attribution

 

The factors the study takes into account involve fairly straightforward science. For instance, it’s well understood that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and dump more rain. The relationship is simple: for every 2 degrees Fahrenheit increase in global temperature, atmospheric water vapor increases by 8%.

In addition, the attribution study uses climate models to analyze local effects like the impact on convection (downpours) due to a warmer atmosphere. The study can then use computer modeling to compare heavy precipitation in today’s heated atmosphere with what they call a counter-factual world — one with cooler, pre-industrial-level temperatures. The difference between the heated and not-heated world tells scientists how impactful climate change has become.

While these numbers are impressive in their own right, they don’t tell the whole story. That’s because assessments like these focus on statistical and climate model analysis, which do not take into account the climate change impact on large scale weather patterns, like atmospheric steering currents known as the jet stream.

Climate change and the jet stream

The jet stream is a narrow river of air in the upper atmosphere which is responsible for steering storms around the globe and also separating cold air masses from warm air masses. In the case of the European floods there’s no debate that a very abnormal jet stream was a significant factor.

The jet stream at the time, from July 12 to 15, was so elongated, wavy and unstable that a piece of it broke off, forming what is called a cut-off low. These type of lows move very slowly, often dumping heavy precipitation over the same areas for a prolonged period of time.

You often hear us talk about the wavy jet stream. Here’s a good illustration of how this manifests in extreme weather, connecting the Europe flooding to the Heat Dome in the US West. Some scientists have found a connection between climate change and a more amp’d – wavy jet 1/…. pic.twitter.com/4rEZNHL3mg

Cut-off lows like the one in Europe can and do happen naturally. But they are made more likely when the jet stream is slower and more wavy. Many climate scientists believe that a warmer climate is indeed making the jet stream slower.

In 2018, Penn State climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann published a paper about changes in persistent extreme summer weather events, coining the rather technical term quasi-resonant amplification (QRA), which refers to large scale weather patterns that are more likely to be semi-stationary due to a warmer climate.

In an email to CBS News, Mann says although he doesn’t see evidence that QRA contributed to this flood event, “There’s no question that the overall slowing down of the summer jet stream did play a role.”

Mann calls attribution studies like this one “extremely conservative” and says that since its modeling doesn’t appear to have taken this factor into account, “it is likely understating the role climate change likely played here.”

Why was the impact of warming on the jet stream not included in the World Weather Attribution analysis? Simply put, jet stream dynamics are extremely complicated and hard to replicate in climate models. The jet stream also exhibits tremendous day-to-day and year-to-year variability in terms of its location, speed and degree of waviness. This makes determining the impact of climate change on the jet stream extremely challenging, especially for a rapid study like this.

The extent to which climate change is causing the jet stream is become slower and more “wavy” is one of the hottest debates in the climate community. There’s one camp of scientists who buy into a concept called the wavy jet stream — the idea that because the temperature contrast from the poles to the tropics is lessening, the jet stream slows down and becomes more meandering and curvy. There’s another camp, just as big, who disagree.

Although there is still no clear winner in this climate debate yet, there is one study, coincidentally published just two weeks before the European floods, which seems to be especially applicable. In their research, the authors not only take into account changing rain rates due to increased moisture and convection, but also the change in steering currents in the atmosphere.

Using extremely high resolution climate simulations, the authors were able to show that a future increase in precipitation extremes across Europe happens not only because of more moisture, but also due to slower storm movement of storms, which increases their duration in a given location. What they describe bears a striking resemblance to what happen in mid-July.

“Our results suggest such slow-moving storms may be 14x more frequent across land [in Europe] by the end of the century,” the study concludes. The authors say the main reason seems to be a reduced temperature difference between the poles and tropics, which weakens upper-level winds, especially in the fall.

But this impact of a slower, more amplified jet stream reverberates all around the globe. This past weekend in the U.S., record-breaking rainfall occurred both near the path of Henri in the New York City area and to a much larger degree in western Tennessee, where more than 17 inches of rain fell in 24 hours — a new state record.

Following a weekend of record-breaking rain after #Henri made landfall, @WeatherProf breaks down how climate change is intensifying these naturally occurring weather patterns. pic.twitter.com/iDNtam1OA8

 

The Tennessee flooding, which claimed at least 22 lives, was not caused by a large weather system. Rather, it was caused by a very narrow band of heavy rain which got stuck over one small area for an extended period of time.

The result was an extremely rare event — one that would be expected to happen less than once every 1,000 years.

As seen in the graphic below, this can be blamed on a blocked weather pattern — a bumper-to-bumper traffic jam in the atmosphere — which extended well into the Atlantic Ocean and even Greenland. When nothing can move, heavy rain bands persist in the same spot.

This summer has featured a very amplified and wavy jet stream across the globe. One aspect of this type of pattern is a blocked flow, in which systems get stuck for extended periods of time.  / Credit: CBS News
This summer has featured a very amplified and wavy jet stream across the globe. One aspect of this type of pattern is a blocked flow, in which systems get stuck for extended periods of time. / Credit: CBS News

 

While the connection between climate change and extreme weather is still hard for science to put an exact number on, what this summer has made abundantly clear is that greenhouse warming from the accumulation of carbon emissions is amplifying extreme weather all over the globe. These extremes will only increase at a faster rate as the climate continues to warm.

Denmark, Costa Rica seek alliance to speed up the end of oil and gas

Reuters

Denmark, Costa Rica seek alliance to speed up the end of oil and gas

By Kate Abnett and Stine Jacobsen         August 25, 2021

A flame burning natural gas is seen at the Joint stock company "Mozyr oil refinery" near the town of Mozyr, Belarus January 4, 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko/File Photo

A flame burning natural gas is seen at the Joint stock company “Mozyr oil refinery” near the town of Mozyr, Belarus January 4, 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko/File Photo

BRUSSELS/COPENHAGEN, Aug 25 (Reuters) – Denmark and Costa Rica are trying to forge an alliance of countries willing to fix a date to phase out oil and gas production and to stop giving permits for new exploration, government ministers said and documents showed.

Burning fossil fuels is the main source of the greenhouse gas emissions heating the planet, but so far there has been no collective government action to end oil and gas production.

“Restricting domestic oil and gas production in line with what is required to live up to the Paris Agreement goals will be the core focus for BOGA,” a draft of the rules for the alliance said, referring to the group’s name – the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA).

Industry and governments are moving too slowly to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit), which scientists say requires the world to reach net zero emissions by 2050. read more

The International Energy Agency has said there should be no new investments in fossil fuel supply projects anywhere in the world if the Paris targets are to be met. read more

The draft document seen by Reuters said a core task for the BOGA would be to establish a deadline for developing and developed countries to phase out existing oil and gas production that would align them with the Paris goals.

To become a full member of the alliance, countries must promise to end new licensing rounds for oil and gas production on their territories, as well as to phase out existing production, the draft said. The draft could change before the expected launch of the BOGA at the U.N. climate summit in November in Glasgow, Scotland.

Countries could become second-tier members if they have taken some steps to limit oil and gas output, such as ending public financing of it abroad or reforming fossil fuel subsidies.

LEVEL OF SUPPORT UNCLEAR

Danish climate and energy minister Dan Jorgensen told Reuters Denmark, which is co-leading the initiative with Costa Rica, was talking to many countries, but it was too early to say how many would join the alliance.

One of the largest European oil and gas producers, Denmark last year banned new North Sea oil and gas exploration and committed to ending its existing production by 2050.

“Very few countries have taken such steps and we hope that this alliance will be something that will be noticed and hopefully inspire others to join,” Jorgensen said.

Costa Rica has never extracted oil, but is considering a bill to permanently ban fossil fuel exploration to ensure no future governments do so.

“Costa Rica represents the commitment and decision of a developing country that has the possibility to explore, makes a brave decision and decides to go for another development model and rides into the economy of the future,” Costa Rica’s environment minister Andrea Meza said.

New Zealand, which banned new permits for offshore oil in 2018, told Reuters it had been approached by Denmark and was “in the process of learning more about this initiative”.

Costa Rica’s Meza said the countries the alliance had approached included Portugal and Spain. Spain did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment, while Portugal said it had not applied for membership of the alliance yet.

The United Kingdom, which is hosting the U.N. climate summit December and has not committed to phase out its oil and gas production or halt exploration, declined to comment on its involvement.

A UK government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters the government is engaging with Denmark on the alliance.

However, some large producers – including Norway, western Europe’s top oil and gas producer, are not yet involved.

“We’ve not been contacted in this regard,” Norwegian deputy energy minister Tony Tiller told Reuters.

PARADOXIAL SITUATION

As a coalition of the willing, BOGA is unlikely to touch major oil and gas producers, such as Saudia Arabia or Russia, whose economies depend on fossil fuels, and which have shown no interest in curbing production.

But part of BOGA’s aim is to redefine what counts as climate leadership from governments. Large countries’ climate change targets tend to focus on reducing emissions from burning fossil fuels, but rarely limit the production of the fuels themselves.

“We are in a paradoxical situation right now where many countries have pledged to become carbon neutral but are actually still planning to produce oil and gas after that date,” Jorgensen said.

The United States, the world’s largest producer of both oil and gas, this year pledged to halve its emissions by 2030, from 2005 levels. The U.S. government did not respond to a request for comment on whether it is involved in BOGA.

Of the few countries that have taken action to ban fossil fuel exploration and production, France has committed to do so by 2040, and Spain by 2042.

‘Times have changed’: some Afghan women defiant as Taliban return

‘Times have changed’: some Afghan women defiant as Taliban return

Afghan women wait to receive free wheat donated by the Afghan government during a quarantine, amid concerns about the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Kabul.

 

(Reuters) – Afghan women and girls who have won freedoms they could not have dreamt of under the last Taliban rule that ended 20 years ago are desperate not to lose them now the Islamist militant movement is back in power.

Taliban leaders have made reassurances in the build-up up to and aftermath of their stunning conquest of Afghanistan that girls and women would have the right to work and education, although they have come with caveats.

Some women have already been ordered from their jobs during the chaos of Taliban advances across the country in recent days. Others are fearful that whatever the militants say, the reality may be different.

“Times have changed,” said Khadija, who runs a religious school for girls in Afghanistan.

“The Taliban are aware they can’t silence us, and if they shut down the internet the world will know in less than 5 minutes. They will have to accept who we are and what we have become.”

That defiance reflects a generation of women, mainly in urban centers, who have grown up being able to attend school and university and to find jobs.

When the Taliban first ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, their strict interpretation of sharia, or Islamic law – sometimes brutally enforced – dictated that women could not work and girls were not allowed to attend school.

Women had to cover their face and be accompanied by a male relative if they wanted to venture out of their homes. Those who broke the rules sometimes suffered humiliation and public beatings by the Taliban’s religious police.

During the past two years, when it became clear that foreign troops were planning to withdraw from Afghanistan, Taliban leaders made assurances to the West that women would enjoy equal rights in accordance with Islam, including access to employment and education.

On Tuesday, at the Taliban’s first press conference since seizing Kabul on Sunday, spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said women would have rights https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/evacuation-flights-resume-kabul-airport-biden-defends-us-withdrawal-2021-08-17 to education, health and employment and that they would be “happy” within the framework of sharia.

Specifically referring to women working in media, Mujahid said it would depend on what laws were introduced by the new government in Kabul.

On Tuesday, a female anchor for the private Afghan channel Tolo TV interviewed a Taliban spokesman live on air.

WOMEN FORCED FROM WORK

Afghan girls’ education activist Pashtana Durrani, 23, was wary of Taliban promises.

“They have to walk the talk. Right now they’re not doing that,” she told Reuters, referring to assurances that girls would be allowed to attend schools.

“If they limit the curriculum, I am going to upload more books to (an) online library. If they limit the internet … I will send books to homes. If they limit teachers I will start an underground school, so I have an answer for their solutions.”

Some women have said that one test of the Taliban’s commitment to equal rights would be whether they give them political and policy making jobs.

Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai, who survived being shot in the head by a Pakistani gunman in 2012 after she campaigned for girls’ rights to education, said she was deeply concerned https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malala-yousafzai-urges-world-leaders-take-urgent-action-afghanistan-2021-08-17 about the situation in Afghanistan.

“I had the opportunity to talk to a few activists in Afghanistan, including women’s rights activists, and they are sharing their concern that they are not sure what their life is going to be like,” Yousafzai told BBC Newsnight.

The United Nations’ children’s agency UNICEF expressed cautious optimism https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/unicef-says-some-taliban-support-education-afghan-girls-2021-08-17 about working with Taliban officials, citing their early expressions of support for girls’ education.

It is still delivering aid to most parts of the country and has held initial meetings with new Taliban representatives in recently seized cities like Kandahar, Herat and Jalalabad.

“We have ongoing discussions, we are quite optimistic based on those discussions,” UNICEF’s chief of field operations in Afghanistan, Mustapha Ben Messaoud, told a U.N. briefing.

But U.N. chief Antonio Guterres warned on Monday of “chilling” curbs on human rights under the Taliban and mounting violations against women and girls.

Reuters reported https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-women-bankers-forced-roles-taliban-takes-control-2021-08-13 last week that in early July, Taliban fighters walked into a commercial bank branch in Kandahar and ordered nine women working there to leave because their jobs were deemed inappropriate. They were allowed to be replaced by male relatives.

(Writing and editing by Mike Collett-White)

Climate change: Europe’s 2020 heat reached ‘troubling’ level

Climate change: Europe’s 2020 heat reached ‘troubling’ level

Fire
Fire. Last year was the warmest on record across Europe, breaking the previous high mark by a considerable distance, say scientists.

Temperatures across the region were more than 1.9C above the long-term average between 1981 and 2010.

The State of the Climate 2020 report from the American Meteorological Society says temperatures in the Arctic are also rising rapidly.

The temperature over land there was the highest since records began in 1900.

Reports earlier this year had confirmed that 2020 was Europe’s warmest on record and one of the three hottest globally.

This new data shows that Europe’s temperature margin over previous years was significantly greater than previously thought.

Not only was the year 1.9C above the long-term average, it was more than 0.5C greater than the previous high mark.

“This level of difference to the previous long-term average, which is a large difference, is something that is concerning,” said Dr. Robert Dunn, a senior climate scientist at the UK Met Office.

“It is something to sit up and take notice of, but it’s not just the temperatures that are increasing, the extreme events, the heat waves we’re seeing this year, and last year as well. We’re seeing these responses across the world.”

Other researchers agreed that the scale of the record-breaking heat in Europe was troubling.

“The amount by which the previous record has been exceeded should worry us all,” said Prof Gabi Hegerl, professor of climate system science at the University of Edinburgh, who was not involved with the study.

“European temperatures are well measured and can be tracked back to the beginning of industrialization and beyond, using documentary evidence and proxy records. This long-term context emphasizes how unusual this warmth is.”

river
River. The warmth across Europe brought huge temperature differences from the long-term average in some countries with Estonia, Finland and Latvia all recording anomalies of 2.4C.

 

Overall, Europe has seen its five warmest years on record all occur since 2014.

One other area of the world experiencing rapid warming is the Arctic.

Temperatures over land reached worrying new heights, getting to 2.1C above the 1981-2010 average. This was the highest since the series of records began 121 years ago.

It was also the seventh year in succession with an annual average temperature more than 1C above the average.

“The Arctic, we see warming incredibly rapidly. It was the warmest average surface temperature in the Arctic in a series going back 121 years, in 2020,” said Dr Dunn.

“That, of course feeds down into places nearby, which includes Europe to some level. But we’re seeing these effects throughout the world.”

Key findings from the State of the Climate 2020
  • Earth’s greenhouse gases were the highest on record. Despite the global pandemic that slowed economic activity, the major atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide rose to a new record high in 2020.
  • CO2 levels were the highest in both the modern 62-year record and in ice cores dating back as far as 800,000 years.
  • Global sea level was the highest on record. For the ninth consecutive year, global average sea level rose to a new record high and was about 91.3mm higher than when satellite observations began.
  • Earth’s warming trend continued. The year 2020 was among the three-warmest years since records began (around 1850) and was the warmest year on record without an El Niño event (a warming climate pattern in the Pacific).
  • The last seven years (2014-20) were the seven warmest years on record.

While rainfall around the world wasn’t exceptionally high during 2020, the authors say that there’s a clear response from the hydrological cycle to sustained heating.

Total atmospheric water vapor was well above average. The extra moisture adds to the impact of higher temperatures on humans.

Drought
Dry conditions were seen in many parts of Europe in 2020

 

Taken together, the indicators show what one of the study’s editors calls “our new normal”.

“This report follows closely on the latest [UN] IPCC [climate] report which could not be clearer in its messaging,” said Dr. Kate Willett, from the Met Office.

“Our climate has changed and is likely to continue changing unless the key driver, greenhouse gases, are curbed, and what we’re seeing now is already straining our society and our environment.”

The House seat of one of the GOP’s ‘most prominent’ Trump critics is on the chopping block

The House seat of one of the GOP’s ‘most prominent’ Trump critics is on the chopping block

Adam Kinzinger.
Adam Kinzinger. Andrew Harnik-Pool/Getty Images

 

A new congressional map in Illinois could spell trouble for the House tenure of “one of the GOP’s most prominent” critics of former President Donald Trump, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), Politico reports.

Democrats, having “total control” over redistricting in Illinois, will almost definitely “attempt to maximize party gains” with the updated map, especially as sure-to-be contentious midterms threaten the party’s razor-thin majority. That said, “thanks to declining population,” Kinzinger’s seat will very likely be cut, writes Politico.

Although no official proposed map has yet emerged, “few party operatives in D.C. or Illinois could envision a final plan that leaves much of Kinzinger’s seat intact,” Politico writes. “If I had to take a bet, I bet that we lose a Republican district,” said Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.).

Should Kinzinger lose his seat, he’d be forced to choose between running somewhere new, perhaps against another incumbent, or making a long shot bid for governor or Senate, assuming he could perform in a GOP primary after having repeatedly criticized Trump. Said Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), when asked if Kinzinger could win in a different seat: “It’d be hard.”

But maybe that’s counting him out too early. Some think Kinzinger could mount a successful 2024 presidential run. Others think he could shore up the vote from suburban moderates and democrat-skeptical independents. For his part, Kinzinger, who told Politico he isn’t “losing sleep” over the possibility of losing his seat, hasn’t counted himself out of the political conversation moving forward.

“I certainly wouldn’t rule out Senate or governor and anything else,” he said. “Maybe, who knows?” Read more at Politico.