North Korea’s Kim says armed conflict becoming reality because of US – KCNA
Jack Kim – December 31, 2023
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with commanders of the Korean People’s ArmyNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends the 2024 New Year’s Grand Performance at the May 1st Stadium in Pyongyang
SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un told the country’s military commanders the most powerful means must be mobilized to destroy the United States and South Korea if they choose military confrontation, state media reported on Monday.
Kim said the danger of an armed confrontation on the Korean peninsula is fast becoming a reality because of hostile maneuvers by the enemies including the United States, requiring the country to “sharpen the treasured sword” to protect itself.
“If the enemy opt for military confrontation … our army should deal a deadly blow to thoroughly annihilate them by mobilizing all the toughest means and potentialities without moment’s hesitation,” KCNA news agency quoted Kim as saying.
Kim made the comments as he hosted senior military leaders on Sunday at the ruling Workers’ Party (WPK) headquarters to congratulate them on the accomplishments made in 2023, the state news agency said.
North Korea in 2023 tested its largest ballistic missiles and launched its first military reconnaissance satellite, which Kim has called major advances in modernizing the country’s military.
The call to upgrade the country’s military readiness follows the pledge made at the conclusion of a five-day WPK meeting that ended on Saturday to boost its nuclear arsenal, build military drones and launch three new spy satellites in 2024.
The escalation of rhetoric from Kim comes as the United States increased drills with South Korea in the past year, deploying more strategic military assets, including a nuclear missile submarine, aircraft carriers and large bombers.
It also comes ahead of a year that will see pivotal elections in both South Korea and the United States, which Pyongyang likely sees as an opportunity to increase its leverage by stepping up a campaign of military pressure.
On Monday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol pledged to accelerate work to complete a missile defence system and a system using U.S. extended deterrence to “fundamentally deter any North Korean nuclear and missile threat.”
Extended deterrence refers to the strategy of using U.S. military assets including nuclear weapons to deter and, in the event of an attack against an ally, respond.
In separate reports, KCNA said Kim hosted a reception for senior members of the ruling party and attended a late night “grand art performance” celebrating the new year at the May Day stadium in Pyongyang, where senior party members, soldiers and members of the diplomatic corps were present.
The show featured ice skaters, acrobats and choirs, and fireworks lit up the sky at midnight, as the venue filled “with great happiness and boundless excitement of seeing in the New Year with the benevolent father of the great socialist family.”
(Reporting by Jack Kim; Editing by Diane Craft, Lisa Shumaker and Kim Coghill)
North Korea’s Kim vows to launch 3 more spy satellites and produce more nuclear materials in 2024
Associated Press – December 31, 2023
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to launch three additional military spy satellites, produce more nuclear materials and introduce modern attack drones in 2024, as he called for “overwhelming” war readiness to cope with U.S.-led confrontational moves, state media reported Sunday.
Kim’s comments, made during a key ruling Workers’ Party meeting to set state goals for next year, suggest he’ll intensify a run of weapons tests ahead of the U.S. presidential elections in November. Observers say Kim believes a boosted nuclear capability would give him another chance for high-stakes diplomacy with the U.S. to win sanctions relief if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.
During the five-day meeting that ended Saturday, Kim said “vicious” anti-North Korea moves by the United States and its followers “have reached the extremes unprecedented in history,” pushing the Korean Peninsula to the brink of a nuclear war, according to the official Korean Central News Agency. Kim cited the expansion of U.S.-South Korean military exercises and the temporary deployment of powerful U.S. military assets such as bombers and a nuclear-armed submarine in South Korea — steps the allies have taken in response to the North’s weapons testing spree since last year.
Kim called for “the overwhelming war response capability” to deter potential enemy provocations, KCNA said.
He set forth plans to launch three more military spy satellites next year in addition to the country’s first reconnaissance satellite launched in November. He underscored the need to establish “a reliable foundation” to build more nuclear weapons, an apparent reference to facilities producing fissile materials like weapons-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium. Kim also ordered authorities to enhance submarine capabilities and develop various types of modern unmanned combat equipment such as armed drones.
“Pyongyang might be waiting out the U.S. presidential election to see what its provocations can buy it with the next administration,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
“The Kim regime has closed the political door on denuclearization negotiations but could offer rhetorical restraint and a testing freeze in exchange for sanctions relief,” Easley said. “Although North Korea has no intention of giving up nuclear weapons, it might try to extract payment for acting like a so-called responsible nuclear power.”
Kim has been focusing on modernizing his nuclear arsenal since his diplomacy with Trump broke down in 2019 due to wrangling over how much sanctions relief the North could get for a partial surrender of its nuclear program. Experts say Kim likely thinks that Trump, if elected for a second term, could make concessions as the U.S. is preoccupied with the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas fighting.
Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University in South Korea, said if President Joe Biden is reelected, North Korea won’t get what it wants. But he predicted a Trump win could revive diplomacy, saying Trump will likely say during his campaign that he can convince North Korea to suspend intimidating weapons tests.
He said Kim’s vow to ramp up production of plutonium and uranium is meant to strengthen his negotiating cards. Nam said North Korea will also test-launch more intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the continental U.S. this year.
“North Korea will act to the fullest extent under its timetable for provocation until the U.S. election day,” Nam said.
During his speech at the party meeting, Kim used bellicose, derisive rhetoric against South Korea, calling it “a hemiplegic malformation and colonial subordinate state” whose society is “tainted by Yankee culture.” He said South Korea must not be considered as a partner for reconciliation or unification. He ordered the military to use all available means including nuclear weapons to conquer South Korea in the event of a conflict.
South Korea’s Unification Ministry responded Sunday saying it strongly condemns North Korea for advancing its nuclear program and displaying hostility toward its neighbors. A statement said South Korea will try to overwhelmingly deter North Korean threats based on a solid alliance with the United States.
Some analysts have speculated that limited clashes between the Koreas along their tense land and sea border could happen in the coming year. South Korea’s spy agency said last week that North Korea will likely launch military provocations and cyberattacks ahead of South Korean parliamentary elections in April and the U.S. presidential election in November.
Kim also maintained that North Korea must solidify cooperation with “anti-imperialist, independent” countries that he said oppose U.S.-led Western hegemony.
Kim didn’t name the countries. But North Korea has been seeking to beef up its cooperation with Russia and China, which have repeatedly blocked attempts by the U.S. and allies to toughen U.N. sanctions on the North over its banned missile tests. The U.S. and South Korea accuse North Korea of supplying artillery and ammunition to Russia in return for high-tech Russian technologies for its own military programs.
Julianne Smith, U.S. permanent representative to NATO, said earlier this month the U.S. assessed that the suspected Russian technologies North Korea seeks are related to fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment or materials of that kind. Smith said U.S. intelligence indicates that North Korea had provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions.
South Korean officials said Russian support likely enabled North Korea to put its spy satellite into orbit for the first time on Nov. 21. Many foreign experts are skeptical about the satellite’s ability but South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik said in November that Russia could help North Korea produce higher-resolution satellite photos.
Yang Uk, an analyst at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said that North Korea hasn’t yet obtained functioning ICBMs that can launch nuclear strikes on the continental U.S. But he said North Korea’s shorter-range nuclear-armed missiles can reach South Korea and Japan, where a total of 80,000 American troops are stationed.
Estimates on the size of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal vary, ranging from 20-30 bombs to more than 100. The U.N. atomic agency and foreign experts recently said North Korea appears to have started operating a light-water reactor at its main nuclear complex in a possible attempt to secure a new source for weapons-grade plutonium.
Meanwhile, Kim said during the meeting that North Korea made “eye-opening” economic achievements by fulfilling or exceeding set quotas in major areas such as farming, housing construction and fisheries. Nam, the professor, said the self-praise appears aimed at burnishing Kim’s image as a leader who cares about public livelihoods as well as military issues.
North Korea’s Kim orders military to ‘thoroughly annihilate’ US, South Korea if provoked
Hyung-Jin Kim – December 31, 2023
In this photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivers a speech during a year-end plenary meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party, which was held between Dec. 26, and Dec. 30, 2023, in Pyongyang, North Korea. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: “KCNA” which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)In this photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, attends a year-end plenary meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party, which was held between Dec. 26, and Dec. 30, 2023, in Pyongyang, North Korea. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: “KCNA” which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)People attend the New Year’s eve gala of youth and students at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Jon Chol Jin)
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered his military to “thoroughly annihilate” the United States and South Korea if provoked, state media reported Monday, after he vowed to boost national defense to cope with what he called an unprecedented U.S.-led confrontation.
Kim is expected to ramp up weapons tests in 2024 ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. Many experts say he likely believes his expanded nuclear arsenal would allow him to wrest U.S. concessions if former President Donald Trump is reelected.
In a five-day major ruling party meeting last week, Kim said he will launch three more military spy satellites, produce more nuclear materials and develop attack drones this year in what observers say is an attempt to increase his leverage in future diplomacy with the U.S.
In a meeting on Sunday with commanding army officers, Kim said it is urgent to sharpen “the treasured sword” to safeguard national security, an apparent reference to his country’s nuclear weapons program. He cited “the U.S. and other hostile forces’ military confrontation moves,” according to the official Korean Central News Agency.
Kim stressed that “our army should deal a deadly blow to thoroughly annihilate them by mobilizing all the toughest means and potentialities without moment’s hesitation” if they opt for military confrontation and provocations against North Korea, KCNA said.
In his New Year’s Day address Monday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said he will strengthen his military’s preemptive strike, missile defense and retaliatory capabilities in response to the North Korean nuclear threat.
“The Republic of Korea is building genuine, lasting peace through strength, not a submissive peace that is dependent on the goodwill of the adversary,” Yoon said, using South Korea’s official name.
At the party meeting, Kim called South Korea “a hemiplegic malformation and colonial subordinate state” whose society is “tainted by Yankee culture.” He said his military must use all available means including nuclear weapons to “suppress the whole territory of South Korea” in the event of a conflict.
South Korea’s Defense Ministry warned in response that if North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, South Korean and U.S. forces will punish it overwhelmingly, resulting in the end of the Kim government.
Experts say small-scale military clashes between North and South Korea could happen this year along their heavily armed border. They say North Korea is also expected to test-launch intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the mainland U.S. and other major new weapons.
In 2018-19, Kim met Trump in three rounds of talks on North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal. The diplomacy fell apart after the U.S. rejected Kim’s offer to dismantle his main nuclear complex, a limited step, in exchange for extensive reductions in U.S.-led sanctions.
Since 2022, North Korea has conducted more than 100 missile tests, prompting the U.S. and South Korea to expand their joint military drills. North Korea has also tried to strengthen its relationships with China and Russia, which blocked efforts by the U.S. and its partners in the U.N. Security Council to toughen U.N. sanctions on North Korea over its weapons tests.
KCNA said Kim and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged New Year’s Day messages on Monday on bolstering bilateral ties. North Korea faces suspicions that it has supplied conventional arms for Russia’s war in Ukraine in return for sophisticated Russian technologies to enhance the North’s military programs.
Estimates of the size of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal vary, ranging from about 20-30 bombs to more than 100. Many foreign experts say North Korea still has some technological hurdles to overcome to produce functioning nuclear-armed ICBMs, though its shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles can reach South Korea and Japan.
Seven ways the exodus of Western companies has cratered the Russian economy.
By Jeffery A. Sonnenfeld, the Lester Crown professor in management practice and a senior associate dean at the Yale School of Management, and Steven Tian, the director of research at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute. – December 22, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds his year-end press conference at Gostiny Dvor exhibition hall in central Moscow.
This is perhaps the most dire moment for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, with the military situation on the battlefield seemingly stalemated, Western political support wavering under the weight of political dysfunction, and war in the Middle East diverting resources and attention.
Nevertheless, many reflexive cynics in the Western press are going too far in crediting Ukraine’s adversary, Russian President Vladimir Putin, with one Wall Street Journal columnist even declaring Putin one of the “winners of the year.” We cannot fall into the trap of thinking that all is good for Putin, and we cannot jettison effective measures to pressure him. Just this week, the New York Times even suggested that the exit of more than 1,000 multinational companies from Russia has backfired by enriching Putin and his cronies.
All the evidence suggests there are, in fact, ample costs of the business exodus. Economic data clearly shows that the Russian economy has paid a huge price for the loss of those businesses. Putin continues to conceal the required disclosure of Russia’s national income statistics—obviously because they are nothing to brag out.
Transferring nearly worthless assets does not make Russia or Putin cronies wealthier. While Putin expropriated some assets of Asian and Western companies, most firms simply abandoned them, eagerly writing down billions of dollars in assets. They were rewarded for doing so as their market capitalization soared upon the news of their exits. Russia is not only suing foreign companies for leaving, as ExxonMobil’s and BP’s departures ended the technology needed for exploration, but Russian oil giant Rosneft even sued Reuters for reporting on it. The massive supply disruptions shuttering Russian factories across sectors were described in on-the-ground reporting by the Journal, which resulted in the arrest and now nine-month imprisonment of the heroic journalist who documented the truth.
Consider the following economic statistics we have verified.
Talent flight. In the first months after the invasion, an estimated 500,000 individuals fled Russia, many of whom were exactly the highly educated, technically skilled workers Russia cannot afford to lose. In the year-plus since, that number has ballooned to at least 1 million individuals. By some counts, Russia lost 10 percent of its entire technology workforce from this unprecedented talent flight.
Capital flight. Per the Russian Central Bank’s own reports, a record $253 billion in private capital was pulled out of Russia between February 2022 and June 2023, which was more than four times the amount of prior capital outflows. By some measures, Russia lost 33 percent of the total number of millionaires living in Russia when those individuals fled.
Loss of Western technology and knowhow. This occurred across key industries such as technology and energy exploration. For example, Rosneft alone has had to spend nearly $10 billion more on capital expenditure over the last year by its own disclosure, which amounts to roughly $10 of additional expenses for every barrel of oil exported, on top of difficulties continuing its Arctic oil drilling projects, which were almost solely dependent on Western tech and expertise.
Near-complete halt in foreign direct investment into Russia. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Russia has come to a near-complete stop by several measures. There has been only one month of positive inflows in the 22 months since the invasion, compared with approximately $100 billion in FDI annually before the war.
Loss of the ruble as a freely convertible and exchangeable currency. With global multinationals fleeing in such droves, there was little to stop Putin from implementing unprecedented, strict capital controls on the ruble post-invasion, such as banning citizens from sending money to bank accounts abroad; suspending cash withdrawals from dollar banking accounts beyond $10,000; forcing exporters to exchange 80 percent of their earnings for rubles; suspending direct dollar conversions for individuals with ruble banking accounts; suspending lending in dollars; and suspending dollar sales across Russian banks. No wonder ruble trading volumes are down 90 percent, making Russian assets valued in rubles virtually worthless and unexchangeable in global markets.
Loss of access to capital markets. Western capital markets remain the deepest, most liquid, and cheapest source of capital to fund business and risk-taking. Since the start of the invasion, no Russian company has been able to issue any new stock or any new bonds in any Western financial market—meaning they can only tap the coffers of domestic funding sources such as Putin’s state-owned banks for loans at usurious rates (and still increasing, with the benchmark interest rate at 16 percent). And with multinational companies having fled, Russian business ventures have no alternative sources of funding and no global investors to tap.
Massive destruction of wealth and plummeting asset valuations. Thanks in part to the mass exodus of global multinational businesses, asset valuations have plummeted across the board in Russia, with even the total enterprise value of some state-owned enterprise down 75 percent compared with prewar levels, according to our research, on top of 50 percent haircuts in the valuation of many private sector assets, as cited in the Times.
The Liberian-flagged oil tanker Ice Energy (left) transfers crude oil from the Russian-flagged oil tanker Lana (right), off the coast of Greece, on May 29, 2022.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gestures with an open hand while speaking during a TV news interview. Zelensky is dressed in his typical black t-shirt and is seated at a desk in front of a bright blue wall.A woman poses for a photo in front of a tall decorated Christmas tree in front of a war-damanged building in Melitopol in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region with a Russian flag flying from a tall pole overhead.
These are just some of the costs imposed on Putin by the withdrawal of 1,000-plus global businesses; it does not consider the deleterious impact on the Russian economy of economic sanctions, such as the highly effective oil price cap devised by the U.S. Treasury Department. More than two-thirds of Russia’s exports were energy, and that is now slicedin half. Russia, which never supplied any finished goods—industrial or consumer—to the global economy, is paralyzed. It is not remotely an economic superpower, with virtually all of its raw materials easily substituted from elsewhere. The war machine is driven only by the cannibalization of now state-controlled enterprises.
Based on our ample economic data, the verdict is clear: The unprecedented, historic exodus of 1,000-plus global companies has helped cripple Putin’s war machine. At such a dire moment for Ukraine, it would be a mistake to be too Pollyannaish—just as it would be a mistake to be too cynical.
Russian military executes Ukrainian POWs near Robotyne, investigation initiated
The New Voice of Ukraine – December 27, 2023
Shell casings on the ground in a trench near the frontline in the east
Russian forces executed Ukrainian prisoners of war near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhya Oblast in December, leading to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office launching an investigation.
Russian armed forces took three Ukrainian defenders captive during a skirmish with the Ukrainian Defense Forces. An hour later, the captives were shot by the occupiers, and the video surfaced on the internet, Prosecutor General’s Office reported on Telegram on Dec. 27.
The execution by Russians violates Article 3 of the Geneva Convention on the treatment of prisoners of war.
Law enforcement has initiated a criminal case on the fact of violating laws and customs of war, combined with intentional murder.
This is not the first instance where Ukraine has reported the execution of Ukrainian military personnel taken captive by Russian forces. In October, the United Nations documented six such cases in its report.
In early December, a video circulated on social media depicting two Russian military personnel shooting two surrendered Ukrainian soldiers with their hands held behind their heads. This was later confirmed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Preliminary findings from investigators place the execution in the vicinity of Stepove village in Pokrovsky district, Donetsk Oblast.
In early September, Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said that some 90% of Ukrainian POWs had been tortured, raped, threatened with sexual violence, or otherwise ill-treated.
Alexei Navalny says he is ‘doing fine’ in special regime Arctic prison
Euronews – December 26, 2023
The imprisoned Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, whose fate is causing concern in the West, said on Tuesday that he was “doing well” after a long and “tiring” transfer to a remote prison colony in the Russian Arctic.
His family, who had had no news of him for nearly three weeks, announced on Monday that they had traced him to a penal colony in Kharp, in the Yamalo-Nenets region, beyond the Arctic Circle.
They claim that the Russian authorities are seeking to isolate him even further, a few months before the March 2024 presidential election in which Vladimir Putin‘s victory appears to be a foregone conclusion.
In his first message on social networks since his disappearance, Alexei Navalny said that the 20-day journey to his new place of detention had been “quite tiring”.
“But I’m in good spirits, like Father Christmas”, he added, referring to his “beard” which had grown during the long journey and his new winter clothes suitable for polar temperatures.
“Whatever happens, don’t worry about me. I’m fine. I’m relieved to have finally arrived”, he said.
Alexei Navalny, 47, a charismatic anti-corruption campaigner and Vladimir Putin’s number one enemy, is serving a 19-year prison sentence for “extremism”.
He was arrested in January 2021 on his return from convalescing in Germany for poisoning, which he blames on the Kremlin.
He disappeared at the beginning of December from the prison colony in the Vladimir region, 250 kilometers east of Moscow, where he had been held until then, which meant that he was likely to be transferred to another establishment.
‘Special regime’ colony
According to the verdict for “extremism” against Mr Navalny, the opponent must serve his sentence in a “special regime” colony, the category of establishments where conditions of detention are the harshest and which are usually reserved for lifers and the most dangerous prisoners.
He said he had arrived at his new prison colony on Saturday evening, after a discreet journey and “such a strange itinerary” that he did not expect to be found by his family until mid-January.
“That’s why I was surprised when the cell door opened yesterday and I was told: ‘A lawyer is here for you'”, he said, expressing his gratitude for the “support” he had received.
One of his close associates, Ivan Jdanov, accused the Russian authorities of trying to “isolate” him in the run-up to the presidential election.
a group of officers walk inside a prison colony in the town of Kharp, in the Yamalo-Nenetsk region. – AP/Human rights ombudsman of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District
According to him, Alexei Navalny is being held in “one of the northernmost and most remote settlements” in Russia, where conditions are “difficult”.
In the West, his disappearance caused concern that was not entirely allayed by his reappearance in a very remote region.
On Monday, the United States said it was “deeply concerned” about Alexei Navalny’s “conditions of detention” and demanded his release.
Mr Navalny’s movement has been methodically eradicated by the authorities in recent years, driving his collaborators and allies into exile or prison.
In early December, the Russian authorities brought new charges of “vandalism” against the anti-corruption activist, which could add another three years to his sentence.
Vladimir Putin is aiming for a new six-year term in the Kremlin in the March presidential election, a term that would take him until 2030, when he turns 78.
Russia’s Navalny describes harsh reality at ‘Polar Wolf’ Arctic prison
Andrew Osborn and Olzhas Auyezov – December 26, 2023
FILE PHOTO: Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny at a court hearing via video link
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny on Tuesday confirmed his arrival at what he described as a snow-swept prison above the Arctic Circle and said he was in excellent spirits despite a tiring 20-day journey to get there.
Navalny posted an update on X via his lawyers after his allies lost touch with him for more than two weeks while he was in transit with no information about where he was being taken, prompting expressions of concern from Western politicians.
His spokeswoman said on Monday that Navalny, 47, had been tracked down to the IK-3 penal colony north of the Arctic Circle located in Kharp in the Yamal-Nenets region about 1,900 km (1200 miles) northeast of Moscow.
“I am your new Father Frost,” Navalny wrote jokingly in his first post from his new prison, a reference to the harsh weather conditions there.
“Well, I now have a sheepskin coat, an ushanka hat (a fur hat with ear-covering flaps), and soon I will get valenki (traditional Russian winter footwear).
“The 20 days of the transfer were quite tiring, but I’m still in an excellent mood, as Father Frost should be.”
Navalny’s new home, known as “the Polar Wolf” colony, is considered to be one of the toughest prisons in Russia. Most prisoners there have been convicted of grave crimes. Winters are harsh – and temperatures are due to drop to around minus 28 Celsius (minus 18.4 Fahrenheit) there over the next week.
About 60 km (40 miles) north of the Arctic Circle, the prison was founded in the 1960s as part of what was once the GULAG system of forced Soviet labour camps, according to the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper.
Kira Yarmysh, his spokeswoman, has said she believes the decision to move him to such a remote and inhospitable location was designed to isolate him, make his life harder, and render it more difficult for his lawyers and allies to access him.
Navalny, who thanked his supporters for their concern about his welfare during his long transfer, said he had seen guards with machineguns and guard dogs and had gone for a walk in the exercise yard which he said was located in a neighbouring cell, the floor of which he said was covered with snow.
Otherwise, he said he had just seen the perimeter fence out of a cell window. He said he had also seen one of his lawyers.
Navalny, who denies all the charges he has been convicted of, says he has been imprisoned because he is viewed as a threat by the Russian political elite.
The Kremlin says he is a convicted criminal and has portrayed him and his supporters as extremists with links to the CIA intelligence agency who they say is seeking to destabilise Russia.
Navalny earned admiration from Russia’s disparate opposition for voluntarily returning to Russia in 2021 from Germany, where he had been treated for what Western laboratory tests showed was an attempt to poison him with a nerve agent.
In his social media post, he told supporters he was unfazed by what he was facing.
“Anyway, don’t worry about me. I’m fine. I’m awfully glad I finally made it here,” said Navalny.
(Reporting by Andrew Osborn and Olzhas AuyezovEditing by Angus MacSwan, William Maclean)
It’s Time for the U.S. to Give Israel Some Tough Love
Thomas L. Friedman – December 22, 2023
Credit…Amir Levy/Getty Images
It is time for the Biden administration to give Israel more than just gentle nudges about how it would be kind of, sort of nice if Israel could fight this war in Gaza without killing thousands of civilians.
It’s time for the U.S. to stop wasting time searching for the perfect U.N. cease-fire resolution on Gaza.
It’s time for the U.S. to tell Israel that its war’s aim of wiping Hamas off the face of the earth is not going to be achieved — at least not at a cost that the U.S. or the world will tolerate, or that Israel should want.
It’s time for the U.S. to tell Israel how to declare victory in Gaza and go home, because right now the Israeli prime minister is utterly useless as a leader: He is — unbelievably — prioritizing his own electoral needs over the interests of Israelis, not to mention the interests of Israel’s best friend, President Biden.
It’s time for the U.S. to tell Israel to put the following offer on the table to Hamas: total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, in return for all the Israeli hostages and a permanent cease-fire under international supervision, including U.S., NATO and Arab observers. And no exchange of Palestinians in Israeli jails.
What would the advantages of this approach be for Israel?
First, if I am reading the mood in Israel correctly these days, the overwhelming majority of the country today wants their 120-plus hostages returned — over and above any other war aims. Israel is a small country. Many, many Israelis know someone — or know someone who knows someone — with a loved one taken hostage or killed in Gaza.
The hostage issue is making Israelis crazy, for good reason, and it’s making rational military decision-making there impossible — especially as many experts believe the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has now surrounded himself with Israeli hostages as human shields and it will be impossible to kill him without also killing many of them. Any Israeli government that does that would sow the wind and reap the whirlwind of wrath from the Israeli public.
Second, Israel has inflicted vast damage on Gaza’s main urban areas and on Hamas’s tunnel network and killed thousands of Hamas fighters, along with, tragically, thousands of the Gazan civilians among whom Hamas embedded itself. Hamas as a military organization deserved to be punished and pummeled, and it has been considerably degraded. But that huge toll of killed, wounded and displaced Gazan civilians has produced a humanitarian disaster. And Israel has no plan — indeed, has not had a plan since the start of the war — for how this humanitarian crisis will be managed and remediated, and how to induce non-Hamas Palestinians and Arabs to come forward and partner with Israel to repair and run a postwar Gaza.
There is also increasing discomfort in the Israel Defense Forces leadership over the fact that it is being asked by the far-right government of Benjamin Netanyahu to fight a war in Gaza without a clearly defined political objective, timetable or mechanism to win and hold the peace.
My view: Israel should just get out and let the person who started this terrible war, knowing but not caring that it would lead to the death and destruction of thousands of innocent Gazans, manage the cleanup. And that is the Hamas leader, Sinwar. The best way to discredit and destroy Sinwar is for Israel to leave Gaza and make him come out of his tunnel, face his people and the world and own Gaza’s rebuilding on his own.
I can tell you from experience what I think will happen. On the first day, Sinwar will strut around the rubble of Gaza like a peacock, declaring how he and his men inflicted terrible damage on the Jews, and supporters will carry him on their shoulders, shouting “Allahu akbar.”
On Day 2, with the Israelis gone, they will scream at Sinwar publicly and privately: What were you thinking? Who gave you permission to launch this war? Who is going to repair my home? Who is going to bring back my loved ones? How are you going to get any help rebuilding Gaza if you keep on lobbing missiles at Tel Aviv? You thought Hezbollah, the West Bankers, Israeli Arabs and Iran would all jump full-scale into this war and rise up against the Jews. It didn’t happen — except at some American colleges — and now all we have are ruins and the dead.
How do I know that will happen? Because it’s what happened in Lebanon in 2006, when Hassan Nasrallah foolishly launched an unprovoked war against Israel, leading to enormous destruction in Shiite villages both in the south and around Beirut.
How do I know that will happen? Because it is already happening. Consider this Bloomberg report from Dec. 11:
Since the war, life in Gaza — which never was easy — has become unbearable. And while most Palestinians are furious at Israel, some are also expressing anger at Hamas, which has ruled the strip since 2007, when it threw out the Palestinian Authority through a brief and violent civil war. “Hand over the hostages and stop the war,” Rahaf Hneideq, a Gaza-based professor of Islamic studies, wrote to Hamas on Facebook. “Enough death, enough destruction. Stop the displacement. Don’t your people deserve that?”
How do I know that will happen? Because while polls conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research show support for Hamas growing in the West Bank since Oct. 7 — which are really signs of contempt for the Palestinian Authority and antipathy to the violent Jewish settlers — support for Hamas in Gaza, which usually rises during wars, has not significantly increased. Moreover, despite the increase in Hamas popularity in the West Bank, “the majority in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip does not support Hamas,” Khalil Shikaki, the director of the P.C.P.S.R., found.
And if you follow news of Hamas politics, you will have noticed reports this week of significant tension between Sinwar and Hamas leaders abroad, who have begun — to Sinwar’s apparent rage — talks with leaders from the West Bank Palestinian Authority about reunifying and revamping the Palestinian leadership after the war to enable some kind of long-term peace arrangement with Israel.
Israel has a choice: It can own Gaza’s future forever, with Israel’s completely dysfunctional relationship between the army and the far-right cabinet, which will never agree on collaborating with any Palestinian Authority, leading to Israel inheriting one of the worst humanitarian disasters on the planet. Or it can get out now, get back its hostages and let Sinwar and his friends own that problem — as they should. Let Hamas have to tell Gazans that there will be no rebuilding, just more of its endless war to destroy the Jews. Let’s see how long that lasts.
And if Hamas tries that, let the U.S. and its allies show the whole world that there is only one reason Gazans are dying another day longer, and that it is because Hamas won’t accept a cease-fire.
From the start of this war, there has been an asymmetry: Israel, a democracy, has to answer every day for its actions and mistakes and excesses. Sinwar has never had to for a minute. Time to turn the tables.
And speaking of turning the tables — Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis pray five times a day for one thing: that Israel will stay in Gaza forever. They want Israel militarily, economically, diplomatically and morally overstretched. The absolute worst news they could get is to hear that Israel is offering total withdrawal for a return of all hostages and an internationally monitored cease-fire that will include U.S. and NATO supervision.
And the absolute worst news that Russia and China could get is that Biden arranged this end to the war.
Indeed, Hezbollah will go into immediate panic mode, saying to itself: Do you mean that if we now keep shelling northern Israel we will face the total, undivided wrath of the Israeli Army and Air Force and lose all justification for our attacks on Israel? Ditto the Houthis.
Israel has done enormous damage to Hamas’s military infrastructure, but at a cost to innocent civilians in Gaza that cannot be morally or strategically justified any longer. Offering Hamas a total withdrawal and internationally monitored cease-fire — in return for all hostages — will shift all of the political, military, diplomatic and moral pressure onto Sinwar. And it won’t just be for one day, but for the future.
I also have no doubt that the Israeli Army can fortify its Gaza border, apply all the lessons of its pre-Oct. 7 mistakes and make sure Hamas can never smuggle in the arms that it did again.
No, it is not the fairy-tale ending Israelis may have hoped for after Oct. 7 — a Gaza Strip utterly free of any trace of Hamas, permanently controlled by Israel and some totally compliant fantasy Palestinian partner and all the reconstruction paid for by the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia. But that was always a fairy tale.
Perfect is never on the table in Gaza. Israel needs to coolly, rationally think through its options, and the Biden administration needs to stop whispering quietly that Israel should reconsider its war aims and tactics. The Biden team needs to engage Israelis in a loud, blunt, no-holds-barred discussion about how much it has already achieved militarily, how best to consolidate those gains and how to end this war with some kind of new balance of power in Israel’s favor — before Israel sinks itself into the quicksand of Gaza, chasing a perfect victory that is a mirage.
Putin: There must be severe action against ‘foreign agents’ who help Ukraine, destabilize Russia
Nate Ostiller – December 20, 2023
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article said that Sergei Skripal’s wife was injured in the poison attack. Skripal’s daughter Yuliia, not his wife, was injured.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that there must be a “severe” response against foreign intelligence services that “directly” support Ukraine and seek to “destabilize the socio-political situation in Russia” in a video address published on the Kremlin’s website on Dec. 20.
Putin has long accused Ukraine of being guided by foreign powers, especially the U.S., and has claimed that its actions are dictated by Washington.
While the U.S. openly supports Ukraine and provides the country with funding, weapons, and strategic military assistance, there is no evidence that U.S. intelligence services actively assist Ukraine on the ground, especially within Russia.
The comments came on Russia’s Security Officer’s Day. Putin congratulated them for their work, particularly in parts of Ukraine that Russia illegally annexed in 2022.
He also accused Ukraine of pursuing “state terrorism” by engaging in sabotage and targeted assassinations. He did not elaborate on the statement.
Ukraine occasionally acknowledges its involvement in various operations within Russia, although it does not take direct responsibility.
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) published a video on Nov. 30 saying that trains in the region around Moscow were disrupted at the end of November “as a result of a special measure implemented together with the resistance movement.”
A pro-Russian former lawmaker, Illia Kyva, who was charged with treason in Ukraine, was assassinated in Moscow Oblast on Dec. 6. in a special operation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), according to the Kyiv Independent’s source in law enforcement.
Russian intelligence is widely believed to be behind a significant number of operations in foreign countries to sow chaos and destabilize society.
Russian operatives have also assassinated perceived opponents of Putin’s regime in foreign countries, such as the poisoning of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in the U.K. Skripal and his daughter survived the attack, but an innocent passerby who found the poison was killed.
Putin is trying to solve a ‘trilemma’ in Russia’s fragile wartime economy now, a former Russian official says
Huileng Tan – December 18, 2023
Vladimir Putin is trying to solve a “trilemma” in Russia’s economy, a former Russian official has said.
He said Putin needed to keep spending on the war and appear to deliver on the economy.
He also said Putin had to keep macroeconomic stability after imposing extraordinary measures.
Russia’s economy appears to be booming even 21 months into the Ukraine war.
But behind the scenes, Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to solve a tricky “trilemma” as the country’s economy heads into 2024, Alexandra Prokopenko, a former central bank official, has said.
“At the moment, the economy looks resilient. But it’s like Putin navigates it the way he navigates his yacht, as if it’s an icebreaker. But it’s not,” Prokopenko, a former advisor to the Bank of Russia, told the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank in a podcast last week.
Prokopenko, who is now a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, explained this was because Putin needed to negotiate three key issues.
First, he said the Russian leader had to keep spending on the war in Ukraine to keep up economic growth. Russia reported 5.5% GDP growth in the third quarter of this year — reversing a 3.5% decline in the same period last year.
“The current pace of GDP growth is mostly because of these war expenditures, which basically means that once the Russian state stops spending on the war, the growth will stop or slow significantly,” Prokopenko added.
He said that since economic growth would cause inflation, the country’s central bank needed to keep interest rates high to tame war-time price raises. On Friday, Russia’s central bank raised its key interest rate to 16% in its fifth straight hike.
Prokopenko said Putin also had to keep up the appearance that he was still delivering because he had a social contract with the people that “everything is going according to plan.” Putin is seeking a fifth term in Russia’s March presidential election when he is almost certain to win.
“War is not a global war, but it’s still a ‘special military operation,’ and people can continue their lives as usual, business as usual,” Prokopenko said.
He said Putin also needed to maintain macroeconomic stability after imposing extraordinary measures such as capital controls and breaking the country’s budget rule to support the flagging ruble.
“Abandoning these institutions means that in the future, it will be more complicated for the financial leadership, for the Kremlin, and for Putin to deal with future shocks,” Prokopenko said.
While Putin’s administration has managed to keep up a rosy facade for Russia’s economy, the country’s official economic statistics are nearly impossible to verify, and reports suggest that much of the country’s growth is due to massive military and government spending.
Prokopenko also cited a key quantitative signal that the Russian economy isn’t quite all it’s hyped up to be.
“Next year, the key rate will be in double digits. It’s also a sign that the economy is not healthy,” said Prokopenko. “If you have a healthy economy and moderate, sustainable growth, you don’t need a double-digit key rate. You don’t need such costly money within the economy.”
