What continued drone strikes on Russian oil refineries could mean for war with Ukraine

CBC

What continued drone strikes on Russian oil refineries could mean for war with Ukraine

CBC – February 18, 2024

Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz shared a photo of oil tanks burning on Telegram on Feb. 19 after a reported drone attack on a facility in Klintsy, Russia. Analysts say the attacks show Ukraine may have an increased ability to strike targets deeper inside Russia.  (Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz/Telegram/The Associated Press - image credit)
Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz shared a photo of oil tanks burning on Telegram on Feb. 19 after a reported drone attack on a facility in Klintsy, Russia. Analysts say the attacks show Ukraine may have an increased ability to strike targets deeper inside Russia. (Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz/Telegram/The Associated Press – image credit)

Hostile drones have been winding their way across the Russian landscape this winter, striking refineries and related oil and gas infrastructure all the way from the Baltic Sea in the northwest to the Black Sea in the southwest.

Drones attacked both the Ilsky and Afipsky refineries in Russia’s Krasnodar region, east of occupied Crimea, on Feb. 9, less than a week after another refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia, was hit. Further attacks have struck other refineries and oil depots near the Ukrainian border, as well as much deeper into Russian territory.

Though Ukraine does not typically confirm its actions outside its borders and Russia has not officially acknowledged drones were the cause of these incidents, media reports have identified Kyiv’s hand in the attacks occurring with regularity as Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine nears the two-year mark.

Analysts say the drone attacks are demonstrating that oil and gas targets of economic significance are not out of reach, even far from the front lines of the war.

Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz/Telegram/The Associated Press
Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz/Telegram/The Associated Press

“This is where strikes are intended to hurt,” said Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He sees a distinction between these types of targets versus strikes that have drawn attention but had less strategic impact.

He says Ukraine has gradually been able to send drones “further and further inside Russia,” and in doing so, may be aiming to make Russia think twice about its actions on the other side of the border.

Russia, oil and revenues

Late U.S. Senator John McCain once derisively described Russia as being “a gas station masquerading as a country” — a jibe underlining the critical importance of oil and gas products to Moscow.

Dmitri Lovetsky/The Associated Press
Dmitri Lovetsky/The Associated Press

Indeed, Russia draws heavily on its resource reserves to support the state. The International Energy Agency says Russia’s oil and gas export revenues accounted for 45 per cent of its federal budget in 2021.

Over the course of the war, as the West capped the price of Russia’s oil, it turned instead to China, India and other markets.

As Radchenko points out, these exports contribute “significantly” to Russia’s earnings, allowing it to use those funds to import goods and support the war effort.

A January attack on a Novatek facility in Ust-Luga halted gas processing operations there for several weeks. The plant processes gas condensate into various fuel products that are exported to customers in Turkey and Asia, according to Reuters.

Sergey Vakulenko, a former strategy executive at Gazprom Neft, a subsidiary of the larger Russian energy firm, believes the Ust-Luga episode may illustrate a bigger problem for Russia than a temporary disruption to production at a single facility.

In a recent analysis published online, Vakulenko reasoned that if small drones can get all the way to Ust-Luga, which is hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border, there are some 18 Russian refineries at risk of being targeted, and they account for more than half the country’s refinery production. He’s not the only analyst noticing this concern for Russia’s refineries.

And while the drones being used in these attacks may be small, they can still cause problems.

“With a bit of luck, they can damage not just pipelines, but also compressors, valves, control units, and other pieces of equipment that are tricky to replace because of sanctions,” Vakulenko wrote in the analysis.

The Russian government has taken steps to deal with the problem.

Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on the Russian defence and nuclear industry, says regulations have been put in place to restrict drones from flying close to “the most significant fuel and energy sector facilities” and operators are using electronic warfare systems to defend against drone threats.

But Starchak said Russian energy firms must foot the bill for expenses related to defence of their facilities.

“Moscow will not specifically help,” he said, noting Russian authorities may hold firms accountable for not putting measures in place to protect their facilities.

A familiar threat for Ukraine

On the other side of the border, Ukraine has seen the deadly impact drone strikes can have — including in Kharkiv last weekend.

Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images
Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images

Regional governor Oleh Syniehubov said at least 10 incoming drones were involved in the assault, with eight of the devices shot down — but one hit an oil depot, which then caused a fuel leak. The ensuing fire burned down 15 homes and killed at least seven people.

Ukraine has faced attacks on various forms of infrastructure since the launch of the Russian invasion, including its energy gridport facilities and railway stations.

As Ukraine continues to fight to repel Russian forces from its lands, its military leaders have signalled drones and related technology will be needed to win the war that seems to have no end in sight.

“Only changes and constant improvement of the means and methods of warfare will make it possible to achieve success on this path,” said Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the newly minted Ukrainian army chief, in a recent Telegram post.

Cheney urges Johnson to act: Don’t do what Trump and Putin want you to do

Politico

Cheney urges Johnson to act: Don’t do what Trump and Putin want you to do

Kelly Garrity – February 18, 2024

Andy Kropa/Invision/AP

Former Rep. Liz Cheney on Sunday urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to call the House back from its recess and introduce the bill that would send desperately needed aid to Ukraine — even if it means risking his speakership.

“He ought to understand that it is worth it if he has to lose his speakership in order to make sure that freedom survives, in order to make sure that the United States of America continues to play its leadership role in the world,” the Wyoming Republican said during an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

The Senate last week advanced a $95 billion aid package that included roughly $60 billion in aid for Ukraine as it works to fend off Russia’s invasion, a cause Republicans once broadly backed.

But Johnson, who has a razor-thin majority in the House, has been critical of the bill in the face of pressure from former President Donald Trump, and resisted taking it up before he adjourned the House for a two-week recess. “The mandate of national security supplemental legislation was to secure America’s own border before sending additional foreign aid around the world,” he said.

Cheney, who was ousted from her position in the GOP House leadership after refusing to waver in her criticism of Trump following the Jan. 6 insurrection, urged Johnson not to give in to outside pressure.

“He’s going to have to explain to future generations to his kids, to his grandkids whether or not he did what was right, whether or not he was a force for good and aided the cause of freedom, or whether he continued down this path of cowardice and doing what Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin wanted him to do,” Cheney told host Jake Tapper, tying their rhetoric together through the death of Putin foe Alexei Navalny.

“When you think about Donald Trump, for example, pledging retribution,” she said, “what Vladimir Putin did to Navalny is what retribution looks like in a country where the leader is not subject to the rule of law, and I think that we have to take Donald Trump very seriously.”

Cheney warns of a ‘Putin wing of the Republican party’

The Hill

Cheney warns of a ‘Putin wing of the Republican party’

Sarah Fortinsky – February 18, 2024

Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), an outspoken critic of former President Trump’s, warned of the emergence of a “Putin wing” of the Republican party and stressed the importance of preventing its return to the White House.

In an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Cheney sharply criticized Trump’s recent comments suggesting he would not defend NATO allies in the wake of an attack from Russia and his recent silence following the death of the anti-corruption, pro-democracy opposition leader in Russia, Alexei Navalny.

“I think that we have to take Donald Trump very seriously,” Cheney said on Sunday. “We have to take seriously the extent to which you have now got a Putin wing of the Republican Party.”

“I believe the issue this election cycle is making sure the Putin wing of the Republican Party does not take over the West Wing of the White House,” she continued.

In the interview, she did not make any presidential endorsements and said she has not yet decided whether she would enter the race herself. She made clear, however, that she would do whatever she could to prevent Trump’s return to the White House.

“Donald Trump, as you pointed out, said just a few days ago that he had told a NATO ally that he would encourage Putin to do whatever he needed to do, whatever he wanted to do,” Cheney told CNN anchor Jake Tapper.

“He’s basically made clear that, under a Trump administration, the United States is unlikely to keep its NATO commitments. And I think that Republicans who understand the importance of the national security situation who continue to support him are similarly going to be held to account,” she said.

Pressed later about Trump’s NATO comments, Cheney said, “It’s disgraceful. I can’t imagine any other American president of either party since the establishment of NATO saying such a thing. And it’s completely uninformed and ignorant and dangerous.”

Cheney also drew a connection between Trump’s frequent suggestions that he would investigate his political opponents in a second term and Navalny’s death.

“When you think about Donald Trump, for example, pledging retribution – what Vladimir Putin did to Navalny is what retribution looks like in a country where the leader is not subject to the rule of law,” Cheney said.

‘March for democracy’ draws multitudes in Mexico

Politico

‘March for democracy’ draws multitudes in Mexico

Associated Press – February 18, 2024

MEXICO CITY — Thousands of demonstrators cloaked in pink marched through cities in Mexico and abroad on Sunday in what they called a “march for democracy” targeting the country’s ruling party in advance of the country’s June 2 elections.

The demonstrations called by Mexico’s opposition parties advocated for free and fair elections in the Latin American nation and railed against corruption the same day presidential front-runner Claudia Sheinbaum officially registered as a candidate for ruling party Morena.

Sheinbaum is largely seen as a continuation candidate of Mexico’s highly popular populist leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador. He’s adored by many voters who say he bucked the country’s elite parties from power in 2018 and represents the working class.

But the 70-year-old president has also been accused of making moves that endanger the country’s democracy. Last year, the leader slashed funding for the country’s electoral agency, the National Electoral Institute, and weakened oversight of campaign spending, something INE’s head said could “wind up poisoning democracy itself.” The agency’s color, pink, has been used as a symbol by demonstrators.

López Obrador has also attacked journalists in hours-long press briefings, has frequently attacked Mexico’s judiciary and claimed judges are part of a conservative conspiracy against his administration.

In Mexico City on Sunday, thousands of people dressed in pink flocked to the the city’s main plaza roaring “get López out.” Others carried signs reading “the power of the people is greater than the people in power.”

Among the opposition organizations marching were National Civic Front, Yes for Mexico, Citizen Power, Civil Society Mexico, UNE Mexico and United for Mexico.

“Democracy doesn’t solve lack of water, it doesn’t solve hunger, it doesn’t solve a lot of things. But without democracy you can’t solve anything,” said Enrique de la Madrid Cordero, a prominent politician from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, in a video posted to social media calling for people to join the protests.

The PRI held uninterrupted power in Mexico for more than 70 years.

Marches were organized in a hundred cities across the country, and in other cities in the United States and Spain.

Still, the president remains highly popular and his ally Sheinbaum appears set to coast easily into the presidency. She leads polls by a whopping 64% over her closest competition, Xóchitl Gálvez, who has polled at 31% of the votes.

López Obrador railed against the protests during is Friday morning press briefing, questioning whether the organizers cared about democracy.

“They are calling the demonstration to defend corruption, they are looking for the return of the corrupt, although they say they care about democracy,” he said.

Tucker Carlson’s Lesson in the Perils of Giving Airtime to an Autocrat

The New York Times

Tucker Carlson’s Lesson in the Perils of Giving Airtime to an Autocrat

Jim Rutenberg and Michael M. Grynbaum – February 17, 2024

In this photo released by Sputnik news agency on Friday, Feb. 9, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, gestures as he speaks during an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Feb. 6, 2024. (Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Tucker Carlson left Moscow more than a week ago, riding high from an interview with President Vladimir Putin of Russia that returned him to the spotlight after his abrupt cancellation by Fox News last spring.

But the interview with the wartime autocrat, mocked in various corners of the political media world for its soft touch, continues to have a long and tortured afterlife — becoming a trending topic all over again Friday after Putin’s most vocal domestic opponent, Alexei Navalny, turned up dead in a Russian prison.

“This is what Putin’s Russia is, @TuckerCarlson,” Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman from Wyoming, wrote on X after the news of Navalny’s death broke Friday. “And you are Putin’s useful idiot.”

Naomi Biden, President Joe Biden’s granddaughter, also weighed in, pointing to a video that Carlson had recently posted in which he contrasted the supposed splendors of Russia under Putin’s leadership with the “filth and crime” of the United States. “Has anything aged so poorly, so quickly before?” Naomi Biden wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

In a statement to The New York Times on Friday, Carlson said: “It’s horrifying what happened to Navalny. The whole thing is barbaric and awful. No decent person would defend it.”

The comment represented a notable change in tone from earlier this week, when he appeared to offer a blase opinion regarding Russia’s treatment of Navalny, who was first imprisoned three years ago on charges of corruption and “extremism” that the United States called baseless.

Asked at a conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Monday why he had not questioned Putin about Russia’s free speech crackdown, Navalny’s jailing or suspected political assassinations, Carlson said those were “the things that every other American media outlet talks about.” (Carlson was, in fact, the first Western media figure to interview Putin in more than two years.)

But, Carlson said then, “leadership requires killing people — sorry, that’s why I wouldn’t want to be a leader” — comments that came under still more criticism after Navalny’s death.

Carlson said in a statement Friday that his remarks about leadership “had zero” to do with Navalny. “I wasn’t referring to him, which is obvious in context. I’m totally opposed to killing.”

Although Carlson did press Putin during the interview on Russia’s detention of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, he sat silent for long stretches as Putin conducted a history lecture that provided a one-sided and often false narrative about Ukraine.

Carlson’s fans and supporters on X portrayed criticism of his interview as sour grapes from mainstream journalists who did not get to interview Putin themselves.

But on Wednesday, a new pundit joined the chorus of those who said Carlson had gone too easily on Putin — Putin himself.

Speaking with a state television host, Putin said he was disappointed that Carlson had not asked “so-called sharp questions” because he wanted the opportunity to “respond sharply” in his own answers.

“He turned out to be patient and listened to my lengthy dialogues, especially those related to history, and didn’t give me reason to do what I was ready for,” Putin said. “So, frankly, I didn’t get complete satisfaction from this interview.”

Justin Wells, one of Carlson’s top producers, responded Friday that viewers should “judge for themselves.”

Putin’s mockery of Carlson came as the former Fox host was basking in the aftermath of his interview by offering a steady stream of praise for Russia and Putin, whose leadership he has extolled as superior to Biden’s.

On Wednesday, Carlson posted a short video recorded at a Russian grocery store, saying its selection and prices offered an example of Russia’s superiority over the United States, which he described as rife with “filth and crime and inflation.”

“Coming to a Russian grocery store, the heart of evil, and seeing what things cost and how people live, it will radicalize you against our leaders,” he said in the video. “That’s how I feel, anyway — radicalized.”

The video drew a bipartisan rebuke: from Naomi Biden and, before her, Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.

As a polemicist who has long dabbled in pro-Russia narratives and now relies on subscriptions from those drawn to just such content, Carlson operates in a sphere where the criticism he has received this week could be a catalyst for still more support.

“He’s just measured by an entirely different yardstick,” said Nicole Hemmer, an associate professor of history at Vanderbilt University who studies conservative media. “Tucker under attack is great for Tucker.”

Putin Kills Off the Handsome Princes

Politico

Putin Kills Off the Handsome Princes

Matthew Kaminski – February 17, 2024

Misha Japaridze/AP

The last images of Alexei Navalny alive show him behind bars. He is a bit gaunt. His hair is shorter,missing its old sheen. Yet his eyes are the same as ever: They light up. In the video shot on Thursday, he jokes with a judge and a policeman. I’m running out of money, he says, a well-compensated judge should lend me some. His captors laugh. For a prisoner stuck in a camp above the Arctic Circle, he looks good — a strong man in whom you see the faintest of glimmers of optimism about his own and Russia’s future.

The other image that I dwelled on Friday shows Navalny and Boris Nemtsov. These two were the most prominent leaders of an inspired protest movement in the spring of 2012 that imagined a different kind of future for Russia. Borya is whispering impishly in Navalny’s ear, making him laugh. Both are handsome, tall, vigorous. The kind of men who turn heads.

Nemtsov was gunned down in February of 2015, at the foot of the Kremlin, a year into Vladimir Putin’s initial military assault on Ukraine. He was a youthful 55. Navalny died — no, let’s be honest here, was killed — on Friday, barely a week shy of the two-year anniversary of Putin’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine. He was 47.

They say authoritarians who survive have a talent for identifying and eliminating the greatest threats to themselves. To paraphrase Kremlin chump Tucker Carlson, Putin is a very talented man. He chose his prey well. In his time, Nemtsov was seen as a credible alternative — a reforming governor from Nizhny Novgorod who came to Moscow under the previous Russian leader, Boris Yeltsin. The taint of the chaos of the 1990s stuck to him; he was associated with the pain of the changes that had to be made and others that were avoided by Yeltsin, and that hindered him in the early 2000s. But Borya had different talents — a feel for people and retail politics and convictions — that Putin lacks.

By 2012, Navalny emerged as the most captivating face of the Russian opposition. He had dabbled in nationalist politics. Then he figured out he could use the Internet for well-documented crusades against corruption that made his name. He coined the phrase “crooks and thieves” to describe Putin and his coterie, and it stuck. It did feel like an opening, if ever so slight, existed in 2012. The regime was disliked, was wobbling. Nemtsov and Navalny had the middle classes of Moscow and St. Petersburg on their side. The political threat from them was direct. Especially for the last decade from Navalny. He knew how to use the media, he showed how to stand up to the regime with courage, and he was willing to make the sacrifices to one day try to lead Russia on another path.

Yet these men challenged Putin in other ways he must have keenly felt. There was the youthfulness and energy. Nemtsov was born seven years after Putin but acted and looked as if he came from another generation; Navalny was the next generation. They had a sense of humor and color to their faces. They were optimistic. They didn’t seem cynical. They had nice hair, too, atop imposing frames. Did that hurt the balding Putin’s ego — so sensitive that, as the joke that happened to be a fact went, he found the one man in Dmitry Medvedev who’s shorter than himself to stand in as president in 2008-12 when Putin was term-limited out of that office.

I note Nemtsov and Navalny’s evident masculinity since that trait is so important to Putin and his admirers abroad. No one besides his dog, the saying goes, knows what Putin really thinks. But you can imagine these men must have stirred more than Machiavellian insecurities in Putin. No pictures of the bare-chested Vlad on horseback comes close to the magnetism of the image I was looking at Friday.

Equally stark is the generational contrast. Putin and his people are old and look it. Dull and gray, they fit right in a group picture of the Soviet politburo circa 1982. You can note the same dynamic in play with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the 46-year-old president of Ukraine. He and his people, almost all in their forties or younger, came of age after the USSR collapsed. They look ahead. The boomer Putin mourns its passing.

I last saw Nemtsov in June of 2013 in Washington. Sitting on a panel next to me, he kept whispering in my ear. A quick joke. Once a compliment. He was warm, playful. His people were and remain immensely loyal to him. Including the writer and activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, who has survived two poisoning attempts and currently sits in a Russian penal colony, another of Putin’s political prisoners.

I got to know Navalny better in March of 2012. Protesters were in the streets. The coming presidential election was a sham. He promised defiance. “The Kremlin should understand these tens of thousands of people will never leave the streets,” he told me. “We will never consider Putin as a president with legitimacy.” More than the words, Navalny left a physical impression on you. He had presence and a relaxed kind of intensity. Then 35, he usuallywore jeans and an open shirt.

On election night, I went to an event thrown by the opposition and remember standing with Navalny and Garry Kasparov, the chess grandmaster and opposition leader. Navalny’s confidence from a few days before had dimmed. He and Kasparov saw the staged election was a victory for Putin; the regime would counter-strike with force. They were right. Kasparov left Russia for good the next year. Navalny was charged with bogus embezzlement charges in July, the first of many that kept him in and out of prison over the next 12 years — except for the long spell in a hospital following a nearly fatal poisoning attempt courtesy of the Russian secret services.

In another country, Borya and Alyosha — the diminutives by which they were known to many — might have had their happy endings. They were the dashing princes, Putin the toad. But this story takes place in the land of the Tsars. Here the Tsar murders at will. His people are numbed to it — some bravely laid flowers Friday night at an impromptu memorial in Moscow, but we know too how this will end. Alyosha will be a memory, as is Borya. How will it end for Putin? The recent leader he resembles most, Stalin, died angry, ashen-faced and ailing, but in his own bed. It took over thirty years for any glimmers of optimism to emerge in Russia, in the 1980s with Gorbachev’s glasnost, openness, and the experiment with democracy in the 1990s, to be snuffed out with Putin’s ascendance in 2000. That’s not a happy thought. There aren’t any about Russia these days.

Navalny’s Team Demands His Body Be Returned to His Family

Daily Beast

Navalny’s Team Demands His Body Be Returned to His Family

Kate Briquelet – February 17, 2024

GONZALO FUENTES
GONZALO FUENTES

The body of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny—who his spokesperson claims was “murdered” Friday at the Arctic penal colony where he spent his final months—won’t be released to his family until officials complete an investigation.

Navalny’s mother, Lyudmila, endured the bone-chilling cold Saturday to visit the prison where he collapsed and died, Reuters reported. Authorities told her the 47-year-old Kremlin critic’s cause of death was “sudden death syndrome.”

“It’s obvious that the killers want to cover their tracks and are therefore not handing over Alexei’s body,” Navalny’s team said in a Telegram post, “hiding it even from his mother.”

Following the news of Navalny’s death, Russian police arrested at least 340 people at protests and memorials in 30 cities on Saturday, according to rights group OVD-Info.

Putin’s Pals Link Death of Alexei Navalny to Tucker Carlson Interview

President Joe Biden and other world leaders swiftly blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the death of Navalny, who was his most prominent foe. “The answer is, we don’t know exactly what happened,” Biden said on Friday, “but there is no doubt that the death of Navalny was a consequence of something that Putin and his thugs did.”

Navalny’s demise comes a month before Russia’s presidential election, which will keep Putin in office for another six-year term.

Image
Alexey’s lawyer and his mother have arrived at the Salekhard morgue. It’s closed, however, the colony has assured them it’s working and Navalny’s body is there. The lawyer called the phone number which was on the door. He was told he was the seventh caller today. Alexey’s body is not in the morgue.

On Saturday, Navalny’s spokesperson shared updates on Russian officials’ purported probe.

“Another of Navalny’s lawyers,” Kira Yarmysh wrote on Twitter/X, “who went to Salekhard’s Investigative Committee, was told that ‘the cause of Alexey’s death has not yet been established, a new histological examination has been carried out.’ The results will supposedly be available next week. It’s obvious that they are lying and doing everything they can to avoid handing over the body.”

“Now the Investigation Committee says directly that Alexey’s body will not be handed over to his relatives until the investigation is complete,” she added.

“Only an hour ago, the lawyers were informed that the investigation had been concluded and that something criminal had not been established. They literally lie every time, driving us around in circles and covering their tracks.”

According to the Moscow Times, the country’s federal penitentiary service said Navalny had “felt bad after a walk,” lost consciousness, and died.

But one of Navalny’s lawyers, Leonid Solovyov, said the anti-corruption activist appeared “normal” when another attorney saw him on Wednesday. The next day, Navalny was pictured smiling and cracking jokes during a virtual court appearance from the prison colony.

Navalny became a household name and Putin’s most outspoken critic through publishing exposés on corruption and leading massive anti-Kremlin protests.

In August 2020, he survived a poisoning with a deadly nerve agent, falling ill on a flight from Siberia to Moscow and soon being transported to Germany for treatment. Beforehand, he’d reportedly been followed by two doctors and six agents with the Russian Security Service.

Navalny returned to Russia in January 2021 and was immediately arrested. He was sentenced to two-and-a-half years behind bars for an alleged probation violation.

The following year, Navalny received another nine-year term for embezzlement and contempt of court; his supporters decried these charges as fabricated. He was sentenced to another 19 years in prison in 2023 after a court convicted him of extremism.

Alexei Navalny’s Death Is the Passing of More than Just One Man

On Friday, the dissident’s wife Yulia Navalnaya told a crowd at a conference in Germany she didn’t know whether to believe her husband had died.

“But if it is true, I want Putin, those around him, Putin’s friends, and his government to know they will be held responsible for what they have done to our country, my family, and my husband—and that day will come very soon,” she said.

Last year, a documentary about Navalny’s poisoning and imprisonment won an Academy Award, and his wife and children attended the Oscars to accept it.

“My husband is in prison just for telling the truth, my husband is in prison just for defending democracy. Alexei, I am dreaming about the day you will be free, and our country will be free,” his wife said on stage. “Stay strong, my love.”

What Alexey Navalny wanted people to know “if they decide to kill me”

CBS News

What Alexey Navalny wanted people to know “if they decide to kill me”

Tucker Reals – February 17, 2024

What Alexey Navalny wanted people to know “if they decide to kill me”

“You’re not allowed to give up.” That was the central message Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny wanted to stress to his supporters in the event of his death. He said it in an Oscar-winning 2022 documentary about his life by Canadian director Daniel Roher, in which Navalny spoke about his political ideals and surviving a purported poisoning attack.

“If they decide to kill me, it means that we are incredibly strong,” said the anti-corruption campaigner who arguably turned into President Vladimir Putin‘s most potent political challenger. “We need to utilize this power to not give up, to remember we are a huge power that is being oppressed by these bad dudes.”

Russian prison authorities said Friday that Navalny had died after going for a walk, feeling suddenly unwell and then collapsing. The Office of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia for the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District said medics at the IK-3 penal colony in Russia’s far north were unable to revive him.

Navalny appears healthy in court video day before reported death

Navalny’s own team said they couldn’t verify the information about his death on Friday, but the following day they confirmed it, saying he was “murdered.” U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris unequivocally placed the blame on Putin’s government.

“This is of course terrible news, which we are working to confirm,” Harris said at the Munich Security Conference in Germany. “My prayers are with his family, including his wife Yulia, who is with us today, and, if confirmed, this would be a further sign of Putin’s brutality. Whatever story they tell, let us be clear: Russia is responsible.”

Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny’s wife, spoke on stage at the Munich conference after Harris.

“You’ve probably all already seen the terrible news coming today. I thought for a long time whether I should come out here or fly straight to my children. But then I thought, ‘What would Alexey do in my place?’ And I’m sure he would be here. He would be on this stage.”

She made it clear that she didn’t trust any information coming from Russian government officials.

“They always lie. But if this is true, I want Putin, everyone around him, Putin’s friends, his government, to know that they will bear responsibility for what they did to our country, to my family and to my husband, and this day will come very soon,” Navalnaya said. “I want to call on the entire world community, everyone in this room, people all over the world, to unite together and defeat this evil, to defeat the terrifying regime that is now in Russia.”

Yulia Navalnaya, wife of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, attends the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Germany hours after Russian prison authorities said her husband had died at a remote penal colony in northern Russia, Feb. 16, 2024. / Credit: KAI PFAFFENBACH/REUTERS
Yulia Navalnaya, wife of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, attends the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Germany hours after Russian prison authorities said her husband had died at a remote penal colony in northern Russia, Feb. 16, 2024. / Credit: KAI PFAFFENBACH/REUTERS

Russia has been condemned globally for its invasion of neighboring Ukraine, which sparked a grueling war set to enter its third year on Feb. 24. Navalny was a fierce critic of what he called the “stupid war” launched by “madman” Putin.

In a cruel twist, Putin and his political allies — who have run Russia for decades — have used the war as a pretext to enact harsh new laws in the name of national security, dramatically curbing free speech. Laws put on the books over the last several years have given the government power to lock up anyone who criticizes Russia’s military or its actions in Ukraine.

It’s all part of a wider crackdown on dissent that reached a crescendo after pro-Navalny protests swept across the nation following the opposition leader’s 2021 arrest, and then took on new dimensions amid the Ukraine war.

Hundreds of politicians, opposition activists, journalists and civil society figures — including some of Navalny’s own top aides — are in prison or have fled Russia into exile.

Street protests in Russia are illegal without prior permission, which officials don’t grant to anyone known to oppose the government.

Ammunition shortage hurting Ukraine, Zelensky tells Munich meeting

AFP

Ammunition shortage hurting Ukraine, Zelensky tells Munich meeting

Hui Min Neo and Sebastien Ash – February 17, 2024

The Ukraine and Gaza conflicts are dominating talks among leaders at the Munich Security Conference (Tobias SCHWARZ)
The Ukraine and Gaza conflicts are dominating talks among leaders at the Munich Security Conference (Tobias SCHWARZ)

A lack of long-range missiles and artillery shells is limiting Ukraine’s fightback against Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky told a defence conference on Saturday, making a fresh appeal for more weapons.

Later in the day, delegates at the conference also discussed the situation in Gaza, with some holding out slim hopes of a lasting solution to end the Israel-Hamas war.

Zelensky’s call at the gathering of 180 leaders and defence chiefs at the Munich Security Conference comes at a critical juncture, with Ukraine’s troops forced to withdraw from the frontline city of Avdiivka to avoid being encircled.

“Ukrainians have proven that we can force Russia to retreat,” he said, adding that “our actions are limited only by the sufficiency and length of the range of our strength… (the) Avdiivka situation proves this.

“Keeping Ukraine in artificial deficits of weapons, particularly in deficits of artillery and long-range capabilities, allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war.”

With the war about to enter its third year, Ukraine is under mounting pressure over the ammunition shortfall.

The long-term future of Western aid is also in doubt, with a possible $60-billion package of military aid held up in Washington since last year because of wrangling in Congress.

Seeking to allay fears over US stamina in helping Ukraine, Vice President Kamala Harris said after talks with Zelensky that her country would not allow political brinksmanship to stand in the way of support to Kyiv.

“As it relates to our support for Ukraine, we must be unwavering and we cannot play political games,” she said.

Zelensky said he believed in the “wise decision” of the US Congress and expressed gratitude for Joe Biden’s “full support” following a telephone call with the US president.

In a White House statement, Biden blamed congressional inaction for Ukrainian soldiers having to ration ammunition and contend with dwindling supplies before their withdrawal from Avdiivka

– Israel-Hamas war in focus –

On top of the war in Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has added to the concerns for the delegates gathered in Munich.

Speaking at the conference, Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani provided a gloomy assessment of talks to seek a ceasefire in the more than four-month-old Gaza conflict.

“The pattern in the last few days is not really very promising,” said Al-Thani, whose country has played a key mediation role.

“Time is not in our favour”, he warned, with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan set to begin on March 10.

Failure to reach a deal could lead to a wider escalation in the region, he warned, as hundreds of thousands of Gazans faced a dire humanitarian situation.

Some 1.4 million are squeezed into the southern city of Rafah, close to the border with Egypt, as Israel prepares a new incursion in the area.

The Gaza war began with Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack which resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.

Militants also took about 250 people hostage, 130 of whom are still in Gaza, including 30 who are presumed dead, according to Israeli figures.

Israel’s retaliatory assault on Gaza has killed at least 28,858 people, mostly women and children, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Saudi Arabia also underlined in Munich the catastrophic situation facing civilians in Gaza.

Diplomats seeking an end to the conflict said however that there may be a unique chance to end the cycle of violence in the next months.

– ‘Extraordinary opportunity’ –

Earlier in the day, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel had an “extraordinary opportunity” to normalise relations with almost every Arab nation, if the Gaza conflict came to an end.

Blinken, who has travelled several times to the Middle East since the war erupted, had been in talks with key figures in the region to seek a truce deal and “an enduring end” to the Israel-Hamas war.

There was however an “imperative to proceed to a Palestinian state — one that also ensures the security of Israel”, Blinken said in Munich.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who held talks with Blinken, urged Saudi Arabia to normalise ties with his country, saying that would be a win against Hamas.

Stopping efforts at normalisation that had been progressing before the war was among Hamas’s aims when it launched its October 7 attack, he said.

“That is why moving on with Saudi Arabia will clearly be a victory over what Hamas did,” he added.

EU promises 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine every year

Ukrainska Pravda

EU promises 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine every year

Ukrainska Pravda – February 17, 2024

Soldiers. Photo: Ukraine’s Armed Forces
Soldiers. Photo: Ukraine’s Armed Forces

European Commissioner for Budget and Administration Johannes Hahn believes that the European Union will be able to produce up to two million artillery shells for Ukraine every year from 2025.

Source: German news agency DPA and European Pravda citing Hahn in an interview with the German newspaper Augsburger Allgemeine

Details: Hahn said, “we would already be able to supply 500,200 artillery rounds” as early as March 2024, when the EU promised to deliver a million shells to Ukraine.

“By the end of the year, we will have such large production capacities that we will be able to produce two million artillery shells from next year,” he added.

Hahn admitted that the EU has failed to fulfil the promise of supplying a million shells to Ukraine due to problems connected with production.

“Ammunition has always been produced only according to demand. That is why we have cut back many production capacities in the past and now we have to build them up again,” he explained.

Background:

  • In early January, the European Commission expressed confidence that the EU would be able to produce one million rounds of ammunition for Ukraine by spring, despite the fact that the process has stalled.
  • But in fact, the European Union admitted that they would only be able to supply Ukraine with just over 500,000 artillery shells by March, rather than the promised million.
  • EU defence ministers had agreed at a meeting in Brussels that they would fulfil their promise to supply Ukraine with a million artillery rounds, albeit later than they had planned last year.