‘Life or death’: Arizona heat wave poses lethal threat to homeless
Romain Fonsegrives – July 19, 2023
Hundreds of homeless people live in ‘The Zone,’ an encampment in Phoenix, the capital of the southwestern US state of Arizona (Patrick T. Fallon)
On a sidewalk in Arizona’s capital Phoenix, where a record-setting heat wave has prompted warnings for people to limit their time outside, Dana Page struggles to stay hydrated in her tarpaulin shelter.
The 49-year-old, surrounded by bottles of water, knows full well the dangers heat poses to the homeless population.
Days earlier, she watched emergency responders perform CPR on a fellow resident of “The Zone,” an encampment where hundreds live in tents and makeshift shelters, near downtown.
“He died just inches away from water,” she told AFP.
Phoenix, like much of the US southwest, is surrounded by desert, and its 1.6 million residents are used to brutal summer temperatures.
But this year’s heat wave is unprecedented in its length: it has already helped the city break its previous record of 18 straight days at or above 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43 degrees Celsius), with similar highs forecast into next week.
Page, a native of Phoenix, said she has had heatstroke three times in the past five years, describing it as a “secret killer” that sneaks up if not monitoring one’s water intake.
– Jump in heat-related deaths –
The absence of typical monsoon rains has also compounded the problem: no respite from searing heat during the day allows temperatures to remain dangerously elevated overnight.
“If this continues, we will see more heat-related deaths,” said Amy Schwabenlender, head of the Human Services Campus, a large facility near “The Zone” where 16 associations cooperate to provide social services, medical treatment and a shelter for those in need.
“It is a life-and-death situation,” she warned.
With its population growth among the highest in the United States, coupled with a lack of affordable housing, Arizona has seen the number of homeless people go up 23 percent in recent years.
And as global warming fuels more frequent extreme weather events, homeless people are increasingly vulnerable to the elements.
Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and its suburbs, recorded a 25 percent increase last year in heat-related deaths, with 425 fatalities — many among the homeless population.
The National Weather Service warns that extreme heat is the top weather-related killer, and has recommended people in Phoenix “stay indoors and seek air-conditioned buildings” during the heat wave.
– ‘Enough resources to help everybody’ –
To deal with the emergency, the Human Services Campus is running at full speed. Its associations send out early morning patrols to distribute 2,000 bottles of water every day, as well as sunblock and hats.
Like some sixty other sites around the city, the facility also serves as a cooling center, where homeless people can find shade, misters and a vast air-conditioned cafeteria with film showings to pass the time.
Schwabenlender warns that scorching hot surfaces outside also pose a significant danger, especially for those with worn shoes or bare feet, as well as people who fall or lie on the ground.
“I saw a man who laid on something and all the side of his neck was burned,” she said.
Asphalt in the summer sun can climb to temperatures above 160F (71C).
A few days ago, former house painter Jose Itafranco collapsed on the sidewalk after consuming methamphetamine, but the 30-year-old said he was lucky to have his wife Alvira nearby to prop his body up.
“When you do meth… it really just makes you think that you’re tougher than you are… like you’re untouchable,” Itafranco told AFP.
“But what happens, really, is you get dehydrated.”
Schwabenlender argues the hundreds of heat-related deaths in Maricopa County could have been avoided with a more coordinated response, and calls for federal emergency action commensurate with other natural disasters.
The White House, for its part, outlined last week various federal initiatives related to “extreme heat fueled by the climate crisis,” including a forthcoming meeting with local officials to discuss preparedness, as well as the drafting of a “National Heat Strategy.”
“We have enough resources to help everybody, we just have to figure out how to put them all together,” Schwabenlender said.
Climate change and Florida’s home insurance crisis: Here’s what homeowners should know
Lianna Norman, Palm Beach Post – July 19, 2023
There are many contributors to Florida’s insurance crisis. One of the biggest contributors are huge insurance payouts attached to yearly storm damage following hurricane season, exacerbated by climate change.
Last week, Farmers Insurance became the most recent insurer to drop coverage of Florida, announcing that the “decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure.”
Here are four reasons why insurance rates are rising in Florida
Costs for building materials and repairing property both increased by more than 30% during the pandemic, according to a 2022 report on building costs by the National Association of Home Builders.
Lawsuits between insurance companies and contractors or insurance companies and policyholders. According to the Insurance Information Institute, only 9% of the nation’s home insurance claims come from Florida. But 79% of the nation’s homeowners’ insurance lawsuits come from the state.
How has climate change affected the insurance industry?
Hurricane Ian, the last major hurricane to seriously impact Florida homeowners in the fall of 2022, cost the National Flood Insurance Program more than $1.2 billion in payouts to policyholders recovering from damage.
“FEMA estimates Hurricane Ian could potentially result in NFIP claims losses between $3.7-$5.2 billion,” FEMA’s website says. “The losses include flood insurance claims received from five states, with the majority of claims coming from Florida.”
Florida isn’t the only state affected. Some insurance policy providers have also hiked prices or dropped out of states like California, Colorado and Louisiana due to rising risk of insuring homes in flooding or wildfire-prone areas.
Which insurance companies are dropping customers in Florida?
This month, Farmers Insurance joined Bankers Insurance and Lexington Insurance, a subsidiary of AIG, in dropping out of Florida’s insurance market.
AAA is still writing policies, but the company said this week they will not renew its package policies that combine home, automobile and optional umbrella coverage. AAA says a “small number” of customers will be affected.
The Florida Department of Financial Services has a list of 14 companies that are in liquidation. This means that the Office of Insurance Regulation determined that there are grounds for the Department of Financial Services to proceed with charging these companies for delinquency.
Here are the insurers from that list that offered property insurance:
What’s the average cost of homeowners insurance in Florida?
Floridians pay some of the highest prices for home insurance in the nation. Most are paying about $6,000 for their yearly home insurance premium, an increase of 42% compared with last year, a spokesperson for the Insurance Information Institute told USA TODAY.
With each year and each hurricane season, the cost for homeowners insurance in Florida increases exponentially faster than the national rate.
Lianna Norman covers trending news in Palm Beach County for The Palm Beach Post.
Seniors are migrating to states that face America’s most extreme heat
Joshua Partlow, Greg Morton, Scott Dance, Brianna Sacks – July 19, 2023
SUN CITY, Ariz. – It was 6:15 p.m., 110 degrees, the speakers were playing “Hot Blooded” by Foreigner and the seniors of suburban Phoenix were blissfully arm-pumping their way around the walking pool.
“Quite honestly, I’m good up to 110 now, you do acclimate,” said Bob Hirst, who decamped from northern Virginia two years ago with his wife, Vicky, to this 55-and-over community.
Despite the blistering evening, Ira Schneider was happily submerged in the hot tub, which was a relief of sorts at around 100 degrees. He’d lived in Phoenix for 22 years. To get him to return to his native New York, he said, “you’d have to scrape me off a cactus.”
Phoenix saw a record-breaking 19th consecutive day above 110 degrees on Tuesday. The extraordinary run of punishing heat poses a particular risk to the elderly, who are more likely to suffer from heart disease, diabetes and other health problems that make it harder to tolerate extreme heat. And while some retirees have the resources to cope with scorching temperatures, others remain much more vulnerable – even as demographic data shows that this group continues to gravitate to sunny and warm parts of the country that are in the crosshairs for extreme heat.
Phoenix first responders and medical personnel say they are worried about seniors who may be isolated and living without air-conditioning, or those who fall and can’t get up on days when the concrete and pavement can be so hot it’s deadly.
Many of the places that, in recent years, have become attractive destinations for seniors are among those most affected by the historic heat wave camped out over the southern United States, according to an analysis by The Washington Post of forecast data from the National Weather Service and migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Between 2008 and 2021, Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, has received more than 68,000 people age 65 or older – more elderly migrants than any county in the country, according to census data. For the past several weeks, Maricopa has also been one of the hottest counties in the United States. This weekend, its heat index – a measure of how hot it feels outside that includes temperature and humidity – averaged over 110 and is expected to climb as high as 117 this week.
Those trends converged in a particularly dangerous way on Sunday at an RV park for the elderly in Mesa, east of Phoenix. The power went out for dozens of homes at the Viewpoint RV and Golf Resort, according to residents, and stayed out for nearly 24 hours – a period when temperatures in the area reached 118 degrees.
Many who lost power moved to hotels or stayed with relatives as the temperatures inside their homes soared, residents said. Robert Steffen and his wife, Gretchen, took refuge at his son’s house in Chandler for the night. When they returned Monday morning, they said the temperature inside their home was in the mid-90s.
Some residents, including people in wheelchairs and with other health problems, spent the night in sweltering conditions, said Kathleen Noble, a homeowner in the community who is also a board member of the Arizona Association of Manufactured Home, RV & Park Model Owners.
“Park managers, especially for the elderly, need to have some kind of an emergency plan set up during these times of high heat,” she said.
The power came back on midday Monday, residents said. The park’s management office did not answer the phone and Equity LifeStyle Properties, which owns the RV park, did not respond to a request for comment.
The combination of rising electricity demand and surging heat could be disastrous. Recent research found that in a city such as Phoenix, blackouts during a heat wave could kill thousands of people.
Nationwide, extreme heat exposure among people age 69 and older could more than double by 2050, according to a study published in March. The research looked at the number of people who will experience heat waves as well as their frequency and intensity. It attributed the surge in exposure to a convergence of three factors: the population at large is aging; the population of older people is growing in the swath of southern states known as the Sun Belt; and average temperatures are increasing everywhere as Earth’s climate warms.
Those trends also mean many older people underestimate the threat of extreme heat, whether because they are new to a hotter region, or because heat is becoming more intense in parts of the country that have been traditionally cooler, said Deborah Carr, a sociology professor at Boston University and the study’s lead author.
Moreover, older people are more likely to have preexisting health conditions that make extreme heat harder to tolerate. Common medications for heart disease and high blood pressure are dehydrating and reduce the body’s ability to cool itself by sweating, something many people don’t take into account when considering their ability to withstand heat, Carr said.
“If someone has underlying conditions, it’s going to be worse,” she said.
Florida, another haven for snowbirds and seniors, is also broiling in the recent heat wave. Lee County, which includes Fort Myers, is home to more than 200,000 Americans 65 and older and is one of the most popular places for elderly migrants, recent census data shows. The heat index is expected to surpass 100 degrees this week in the county, driven in large part by extreme humidity.
Sitting barefoot in a chair with the front door of his motel room open on Saturday, Joseph Sull couldn’t ever remember being this hot. The 76-year-old has lived in southwest Florida for nearly 20 years, and is used to sweltering summers, but this year’s historic stretch of heavy humidity has been “brutal” and has prevented him from spending time outside, like he usually loves to do.
After Hurricane Ian totaled his mobile home last September, Sull has been living in a motel, along with a handful of other victims, most of whom are also elderly. For days on end, Sull has sat in his small, air-conditioned room, watching “nothing happening,” as he says.
This kind of oppressive heat has made his world much smaller, having made the few routines he has, like taking a walk, very uncomfortable to do.
“I can’t sit in here all day with the door closed. It drives me crazy,” he said. “I need the fresh air and want to look at something else besides these four walls. It’s hard.”
In Phoenix, doctors say they regularly see elderly patients who suffer from heat stroke and burns once temperatures surpass 100 degrees. Diabetic patients who suffer from neuropathy and can’t feel their feet sometimes walk out onto hot surfaces, suffering serious burns, they said. Nearly two-thirds of the 425 heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County last year were individuals age 50 or older.
Frank LoVecchio, an emergency medicine physician at Valleywise Health Medical Center in Phoenix, said he saw an elderly woman last week who had fallen from her wheelchair at her nursing home and couldn’t get off the hot patio.
“She was there for like five minutes maybe,” he said. “And she had third-degree burns.”
Phoenix firefighters who respond to heat distress cases say the elderly and the immunocompromised tend to be among the most vulnerable. They have responded to help elderly people whose homes get too hot because they won’t turn on air conditioning or don’t have any.
The health impacts of extreme heat are easier to discount than, say, the dangers of a tornado or hurricane because they aren’t as readily apparent, said Peter Howe, a professor at Utah State University. Authorities usually know soon after a storm how many injuries or deaths it caused, but it often takes much longer to determine the toll of a heat wave, he said.
“We can do retrospective studies several months to years later, but we don’t really have good real-time data,” Howe said.
Migration to the Sun Belt, which air conditioning helped enable over the past half century, is still increasing as people seek out milder winter weather, said Albert Saiz, director of MIT’s Urban Economics Lab. At the same time, high costs and housing scarcity are driving people away from the Northeast and other regions, he said.
“It’s both a pull and a push,” he said.
Scott Dudlicek, a claims manager for a technology company, left Chicago after 54 years and moved to Sun City outside Phoenix in the summer of 2019.
“I came down on a visit for a work conference and said, ‘I’m tired. I’m done with the snow and the cold,'” Dudlicek recalled. “It was 113 when we were down here. I loved it.”
When he returned to Chicago it was 90 percent humidity, he said, and he was soon drenched through his shirt.
He told his wife: “That’s it. We’re moving.”
“And we were down here a year later.”
Morton and Dance reported from Washington. Sacks reported from Iona, Fla. Caitlin O’Hara in Sun City contributed to this report.
DeSantis has boasted about people flocking to Florida, but the transplants have helped the state reach inflation levels that are twice as high as the national average
Kelsey Vlamis – July 18, 2023
Coconut Grove, a neighborhood in Miami, Florida.Demetrius Theune/Getty Images
Florida was the fastest-growing state in 2022, but inflation is also booming there.
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach had the highest inflation of any large metro area in April.
High inflation and home insurance prices are among the costs that transplants may not anticipate.
Some areas of the Sunshine State face the highest inflation rates in the US, even more than twice as high as the national average, which hit 3% in June, the lowest since early 2021.
The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro area had a rate of 9% for the year that ended in April, according to the Consumer Price Index. It was the highest rate of any metro area with more than 2.5 million residents. The area’s inflation rate was also high for the year that ended in June, at 6.9%. Another Florida metro area, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, had an inflation rate of 7.3% for the year that ended in May.
He has also bragged that leftist ideologies in other states have pushed people away and driven them to Florida, but the state in part has its recent transplants to thank for the rising prices.
Amanda Phalin, an economist at the University of Florida, told CBS Miami that the state’s growing population and increased demand for housing have driven up prices. “A lot of people are still coming to Florida because the economy is really strong, and many like the fact that we don’t have an income tax like in New York, for example,” she said.
Florida was the fastest-growing state in 2022, but residents moving for perceived economic benefits may not realize the impact of higher prices. There’s also another cost of moving to Florida that transplants may not anticipate: steep homeowners insurance.
The Guardian reported the state is facing a crisis thanks to skyrocketing premiums for hurricane coverage. A 68-year-old resident who has lived in Florida for 30 years told the outlet if her homeowner insurance premium rises any more she “may have to sell up and move to another state.”
Another Insurance Company Halts Florida Home Policies Amid Worsening Storms
NinaGolgowski – July 18, 2023
AAA has announced that it’s scaling back some of its homeowner’s insurance coverage in Florida, with the decision aligning with several other major insurance providers amid a rise in natural disasters.
“Unfortunately, Florida’s insurance market has become challenging in recent years,” the company said in a statement Tuesday.
“Last year’s catastrophic hurricane season contributed to an unprecedented rise in reinsurance rates, making it more costly for insurance companies to operate. Prior to that, the market was already strained by increased claims costs due to inflation and excessive litigation,” the statement continued.
Only “a very small percentage” of higher exposure homeowner’s policies are affected by the change, and those policyholders have been notified that their plan will not renew, the company said. A spokesperson declined to specify the number of policies or where in the state they are located.
A collapsed home is seen in Naples, Florida, following Hurricane Ian in 2022. The Category 5 Atlantic hurricane was the third-costliest weather disaster on record.
A collapsed home is seen in Naples, Florida, following Hurricane Ian in 2022. The Category 5 Atlantic hurricane was the third-costliest weather disaster on record.
The announcement came a week after Farmers Insurance Group announced that it would no longer write any new policies or renew existing homeowner, auto and umbrella policies for people in Florida. Last year Bankers Insurance and Lexington Insurance, a subsidiary of AIG, also pulled out of the Florida homeowners market.
“This business decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure,” Farmers said in a statement released to the Tampa Bay Times.
Farmers in May similarly said it would no longer offer new home insurance policies in California due to more frequent and intense wildfires. The insurance company blamed its decision, in a previously released statement, on “historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market.”
A skeleton in sunglasses sits beside a sign reading
A skeleton in sunglasses sits beside a sign reading “Just waiting for the insurance check,” on Florida’s Sanibel Island in May. The area was hit by Hurricane Ian in 2022.
It’s getting harder to live in the Sunshine State, with Floridians paying on average about $6,000 for their yearly home insurance premium, a 42% increase compared to last year, Mark Friedlander, spokesperson for the Insurance Information Institute, recently told USA Today. The average annual premium in the U.S., in comparison, costs $1,700.
Floridians have also had to deal with exceptionally high inflation rates and housing costs amid an ongoing flood of new residents from other parts of the country.
Forecasters have meanwhile given mixed predictions on this year’s hurricane season in the Atlantic, which started last month and will last through November.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted a near-normal hurricane activity season with 12 to 17 total named storms — one to four of which it said could become major hurricanes.
Colorado State University has meanwhile predicted that the season will be “above average, with 18 named storms — four of which they predict will become major hurricanes. CSU previously estimated that the season would be “near average” but updated its prediction due to record warm sea surface temperatures in most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
Florida homeowners insurance prices are skyrocketing. Is self-insuring the answer?
Brandon Girod, Pensacola News Journal – July 18, 2023
Florida home insurance prices have skyrocketed over the years, outpacing the national average by nearly four times as homeowners still in the private market pay about $6,000 per year, which is quite a bit higher than the national average of $1,700.
Some homeowners have been able to find some reprieve through state-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corp., which was originally meant to serve as an insurer of last resort for homeowners unable to find insurance coverage in the private market. But it, too, is seeking to raise its rates by about 13.% to “depopulate” and shed some of the policies it has gained over the past three years.
Rising prices have led many Florida homeowners to question if purchasing home insurance is required and whether it’s cheaper to forego it completely — assuming their lender doesn’t require it.
SmartFinancial, a technology company that partners with some of the country’s top insurance companies to compare prices, recently laid out how much those out-of-pocket costs would run for the average homeowner.
There is technically no requirement that homeowners must carry property insurance that covers fire, flood, theft or storms. The caveat is that most mortgage lenders will require homeowners to carry home insurance, windstorm coverage and even flood insurance if the property is located in a designated flood zone.
Those who purchased their home outright or have paid their mortgage off may choose to “self-insure,” which is an informal way to describe the act of foregoing home insurance and opting to pay for potential repairs completely out of pocket.
Out-of-pocket expenses for home repairs will always vary based on where you live, supply and demand, the nature of the repairs and the quality of materials needed to make the repairs. In a press release, SmartFinancial provided a rough estimate of how much those costs would be for the average homeowner.
Roof replacement cost: $5,000-$10,000
Roof repair cost: $40-$1,800
Sinking or settling foundation: $4,000-$10,000
Water damage: $1,000-$5,000
Mold removal: $1,000-$4,000
HVAC replacement: $7,000-$10,000
Electrical rewiring: $4,000-$12,000
Termite damage: $3,000
Repair or replace a water heater: $600-$1,700
New pipes: $600–$1,600 per fixture; $5,000 for a new sewer line
In addition to those costs, SmartFinancial also included information about how likely it is for homeowners to file claims involving wind and hail, fire and lightning, water damage and more.
Wind and hail account for 45.5% of claims. This amounts to about 1 in 35 homes.
The average cost to insurers for claims related to wind and hail was $11,695.
Fire and lightning account for 23.8% of home insurance claims.
The average cost to insurers was $77,340 per claim
Water Damage and Freezing account for 19.9% of home insurance claims
The average cost to insurers was $11,650 per claim
Bodily injury and property damage claims for injuries or damage to others.
The average cost to insurers was $30,324 per claim
1 in 525 homes file a theft-related claim each year. These incidents account for 0.6% of home claims.
The average cost to insurers was $4,415 per claim
How many Florida homeowners go without insurance?
More than in most places. According to the Miami Herald, the Insurance Information Institute estimated that 13% of all Florida homeowners are going without property insurance, almost double the national average of 7%.
Texas traps pregnant migrants in razor wire, pushes kids back into Rio Grande, state trooper complains
Peter Weber, Senior editor – July 18, 2023
Razor wire at U.S. border in Texas Suzanne Cordeiro / AFP via Getty Images
Rolls of razor wire Texas installed along the U.S. side of the Rio Grande have ensnared several migrants, including a pregnant woman “in obvious pain” while having a miscarriage and a father trying to free his child “stuck on a trap” of razor wire–covered barrels in the water, a Texas state trooper wrote in July 3 email to a superior, the Houston Chronicle reported Monday.
The Dallas Morning News also obtained the email and a corroborating July 4 note from a second Department of Public Safety trooper. Both were identified by name. In recent weeks, as part of Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) “Operation Lone Star” border initiative, Texas has rolled out about 88 miles of razor wire along the Rio Grande and also put buoys in the middle of the river to deter migrants from crossing over from Mexico. This has sparked conflicts with the U.S. Border Patrol, complaints from local businesses, and legal challenges from Mexico.
The trooper, stationed in Eagle Pass, said Operation Lone Star service members have been ordered to push children back into the Rio Grande and told not to give water to asylum seekers even as Texas sweltered in extreme heat.- ADVERTISEMENT -https://s.yimg.com/rq/darla/4-11-1/html/r-sf-flx.html
He recounted seeing National Guard soldiers push a 4-year-old girl trying to cross the razor wire back into the river “due to the orders given to them,” adding that the girl then passed out from exhaustion in temperatures “well over 100 degrees.” The 4-year-old girl, 19-year-old pregnant woman, and others lacerated by the razor wire or injured trying to avoid it in the June 30 incidents were transferred to emergency medical services, the trooper wrote.
On June 25, he added, troopers came across a group of 120 hungry and exhausted people, including small children and nursing babies, resting along the river. The shift officer in command ordered the troopers to “push the people back into the water to go to Mexico,” the trooper recounted, and when the troopers refused and asked for new guidance, they were told to drive off. Other troopers and federal Border Patrol agents then stepped in and provided care to the migrants.
“I truly believe in the mission of Operation Lone Star,” the trooper wrote. “I believe we have stepped over a line into the inhumane.” He specifically said migrants need to be given water, and “the wire and barrels in the river needs to be taken out as this is nothing but a in humane [sic] trap in high water and low visibility.”
DPS spokesman Travis Considine told the Chronicle there is no policy against giving water to migrants and passed along emails from DPS Director Steven McCraw acknowledging seven additional cases in July of migrants needing “elevated medical attention” due to the razor wire. McCraw called for a safety audit and investigation of the trooper’s reports. A spokesman for Abbott said “Texas is deploying every tool and strategy to deter and repel illegal crossings between ports of entry,” criticizing President Biden’s border policies.
What record warm ocean temperatures could mean for hurricane season
Jennifer Gray – July 17, 2023
Editor’s Note: A version of this article originally appeared in the weekly weather newsletter, the CNN Weather Brief, which is released every Monday. You can sign up here to receive them every week and during significant storms.
The Atlantic hurricane season is headed into uncharted territory with water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico warmer than they have ever been on record.
Seasonal forecasters are warning it means you need to prepare for a more uncertain forecast for the rest of the season with the potential for more storms and stronger ones.
Sea surface temperatures around parts of Florida and the Bahamas are warmer than 90 degrees Fahrenheit, shown here in shades of purple. – CNN Weather
Warm ocean water is one of the key ingredients for fueling hurricanes and it’s been in abundance so far this year. Scientists first sounded the alarm in April and the ocean warmth has only escalated since. Water in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic has been record warm, especially for this early in the year. It includes off the coast of Florida, where water temperatures in the Florida Keys were close to 97 degrees in some spots last week.
It is important because warm ocean water breeds stronger, bigger and wetter storms. It gives hurricanes the energy they need to grow and sometimes rapidly intensify, something hurricane forecasters told CNN we could see more of this season. Warm oceans can also lead to more evaporation and wring out more rainfall falling from any storms.
But hurricane season predictions involve more than just warm water. It’s just one factor in the birth and survival of tropical cyclones, and it is creating more uncertainty than usual in what could happen the rest of the hurricane season.
“Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty! That’s really the story going forward with this season,” Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University told me.
Klotzbach and the team at CSU are some of the pioneers of long-term hurricane season outlooks, and just increased the number of expected hurricanes and major hurricanes in their prediction for this season due to the warmer water in the Atlantic.
What makes this year even more uncertain is we are now under the influence of El Niño which typically suppresses activity in the Atlantic with increased wind shear, the changing of wind direction and speed with height which can blow budding storms to pieces and shred existing storms to death.
Klotzbach said the confluence of these record warm temperatures at the same time as a moderate to strong El Niño hasn’t been “observed historically.”
The million-dollar question right now is which will win out: warm ocean temperatures or El Niño. Early season predictions called for a near-average season, but Klotzbach and team seem to think the warm water will win out and are now calling for “an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.”
Warm water won in June. According to Klotzbach, June had the lowest wind shear in the southern Atlantic Basin since 1988. Arlene, Bret and Cindy formed as a result.
Wind shear and dry air from Saharan dust picked up in the month of July, suppressing hurricane activity for the most part, but August through October could be different.
“Most climate models are forecasting slightly to somewhat-below normal shear in August, September and even into October,” Klotzbach said. “If that were the case, we would likely have an extremely busy season given how warm the Atlantic is.”
An aerial picture taken on September 30, 2022, shows the only access to the Matlacha neighborhood destroyed in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Florida. – Ricardo Arduengo/AFP/Getty Images
As of now, there’s not much noteworthy on the horizon as far as tropical development goes. Subtropical Storm Don is meandering around the north-central Atlantic but poses no threat to land. Forecast models aren’t picking up any development this week. Forecasts for next week are hinting at some tropical development, but it’s far too early to have confidence in how, if or when this could materialize.
What we do know is hurricane season typically starts ramping up as we head into August. The first hurricane usually forms in early to mid-August. The eight-week span from mid-August through mid-October is when ocean temperatures are nearing their highest levels in the Atlantic, wind shear lessens considerably and when nearly 90% of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic happens.
The bottom line is this season is already unprecedented given the hot ocean temperatures, so forecasting the season in the uncharted territory we’ve entered is a challenge. We’ve got a lot of hurricane season left to go, which means you should prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during the Victory Day military parade at Red Square in central Moscow on May 9, 2023.GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images
Russia’s economy has deteriorated since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Its current-account balance has crashed, the ruble is weakening, and it’s status as an energy superpower has crumbled.
At the same time, Russia’s domestic consumption and production are low.
Russia’s economy is a shadow of what it was 16 months ago.
Before Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and prior to the onset of historic sanctions, Moscow commanded the world’s 11th largest economy and played a key role as a reliable, wide-reaching energy exporter.
Now however, from a weakening currency to tepid trade, all signs point to a sharp deterioration with no end in sight.
“Russia might collapse into multiple pieces, like the Soviet Union, and that might not be a bad thing for the world,” Volodymyr Lugovskyy, an economics professor at Indiana University, told Insider this week. “It’s resembling an empire right now, with a central power. Extreme events are highly possible.”
These five statistics illustrate how war has reshaped the Russian economy for the worse.
During the failed mutiny in June by the Wagner Group, the currency tumbled to a 15-month low against the dollar as panicked citizens swapped for alternative currencies.
Over the last month, the ruble has weakened more than 6.8%, and it’s down more than 35% in the last year.
Current-account balance drops 93%
For the April to June quarter, the country posted a current-account surplus of $5.4 billion, marking a 93% plunge from a record $76.7 billion during the same stretch last year, according to the Russian central bank.
The fading current account surplus shows that Moscow has been unable to secure imports, and that its profits from energy exports are failing to prop up the economy like they did before.
Weakening Russian trade surplus illustrates inability to secure imports, and diminishing profits from windfall energy exports.Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
“The decline in the surplus of the balance of the external trade in goods in January – June 2023 compared to the comparable period of 2022 was caused by a decrease in both the physical volumes of export deliveries and the deterioration in the price situation for the basic Russian export commodities, energy commodities made the most significant contribution to the decline in the value of exports,” the Bank of Russia said in a statement.
Energy revenue crash
Russia’s Finance Ministry said in June that revenue from oil and gas taxes dropped 36% compared to a year ago, while profits from crude and petroleum products fell 31%.
Before the war, Russia was responsible for almost 40% of the European Union’s natural gas imports, and a quarter of the bloc’s crude oil.
Those numbers have gone to almost zero since then, and even though Putin has turned to China and India as alternative buyers, Moscow has had to sell energy at steep discounts.
Russia’s energy exports now go mostly to China and India.Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Russian car sales have tumbled
Before the invasion of Ukraine, roughly 100,000 vehicles were sold every single month across Russia, according to Yale research data shared with Insider.
Those sales have collapsed to about a quarter of that level, driven not only by soaring prices and sinking consumer sentiment, but also due to a lack of supply.
Russia has seen a total collapse in car sales over the last year and a half.Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Brain drain and emigration
Millions of Russians have emigrated since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to Yale data, with Uzbekistan alone taking in more than 400,000 fleeing citizens.
The flight of capital and talent out of Russia is illustrated in the surge of money transfers to neighboring countries that aren’t normally seen as financial hubs, according to Yale, such as Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.
“While there is no concrete measure of how much capital flight has taken place, proxy measures, such as the explosion of non-resident deposits in UAE bank accounts, suggests that Russians of means are taking their productive capital out of Russia at a dramatic clip,” Yale researcher Jeffrey Sonnenfeld said.
The country’s economic woes have multiplied since its invasion of Ukraine early last year. The conflict has triggered a wave of sanctions from the Western world. Some have even blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for inflicting so much pain on the nation, with Yale researchers saying he’s “cannibalizing” Russia’s economy in his urge to conquer Ukraine.
“The lion’s share of the economy is controlled by the state, the energy and financial sectors, and Putin is taking from the seed capital of those businesses to use as a cookie jar for his war chest,” researchers Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian said.
Russians are buying fewer cars
Russia’s car industry is one part of the economy that’s being squeezed.
Insider’s Phil Rosen reported that car sales in Moscow have tanked by nearly 75% since the Ukraine war broke out. The decline has been fueled by a mix of three factors: soaring prices, decreasing supply, and deteriorating consumer sentiment.
“Russians are just buying less cars, period,” Tian said. “That speaks to the weakness of the consumer in Russia. This is as close to a proxy to deteriorating consumer sentiment as there is, and the story it tells is profoundly distressing. Russians just aren’t spending money.”
At the same time, the number of Russians buying foreign-branded cars – typically viewed as luxury purchases – has neared a standstill. Instead, consumers are buying locally sourced cars, many of which are riddled with mechanical issues.
Moscow’s central bank posted a 93% year-on-year drop in its current-account surplus for the April-June quarter. it fell from a record $76.7 billion to $5.4 billion.
The rough financials show how badly Western sanctions are biting the country, particularly its key energy sector where its oil-and-gas exports have taken a huge hit after price caps and bans were imposed.
Energy export revenue
Moscow garners a big chunk of its revenue from sales of oil and gas products, but Western penalties have eroded that income stream.
In June, Russia’s Finance Ministry said that revenue from oil-and-gas taxes fell 36% compared to a year ago to about 571 billion rubles, and that profits from crude and petroleum products tumbled 31% to 426 billion rubles.
Ruble in freefall
Adding to Russia’s troubles is a tumbling ruble. The country’s currency slumped to a 15-month low of 94.48 against the dollar earlier in July, triggered by capital flight, shrinking tax revenues, and declining central-bank reserves.
“The ruble doesn’t have anywhere to go but down,” Konstantin Sonin, a University of Chicago economist, said in a tweet.
Concerns about the currency’s volatility have prompted a wave of domestic withdrawals from the country’s central bank, amounting to over $1 billion. The bank run was mainly fueled by the recent Wagner revolt.
Russia’s weakening currency has forced the country to take desperate measures. Recently, Russia’s foreign minister urged Southeast Asian countries to dump the dollar and use local currencies to conduct trade.
