Why nurses say they are striking and quitting in droves

The Washington Post

Why nurses say they are striking and quitting in droves

Lauren Kaori Gurley, The Washington Post – January 15, 2023

This flu season, Benny Matthew – a nurse at the Montefiore Medical Center emergency room in the Bronx – has often been responsible for 15 to 20 patients at a time.

By 3 p.m. most days, the emergency room is often exploding with patients, Matthew said. Hospital gurneys stand inches apart. When beds run out, patients squeeze into tightly packed chairs. When the chairs run out, patients must stand. Wait times to see a doctor can be up to six hours. At the same time, the hospital is advertising more than 700 nursing positions.

“We go home feeling like failures,” Matthew said. “There are times when you can’t sleep because you’re thinking: ‘Did I do anything wrong today?'”

Matthew is one of more than 7,000 union nurses who went on strike in New York City last week, protesting staffing levels, which led to two of the city’s largest nonprofit hospital systems to agree to strengthen staffing ratios at some hospitals. On Thursday, hundreds of health-care workers from around the country protested understaffing at HCA Healthcare, the nation’s largest hospital system. That included one worker from El Paso who recently admitted herself into her own emergency room for dehydration and exhaustion after working four 12-hour days in a row, her union said.

These tensions have continued to play out over the past month, as nurses have also protested, gone on strike or threatened strikes in California, Oregon, Michigan and Minnesota.

Understaffing concerns have been at the heart of labor disputes in myriad industries in recent months, including an averted national rail strike threat, but perhaps nowhere have these tensions been more pronounced than in health care and nursing. Nurses led a quarter of the top 20 major work stoppages tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2022.

While understaffing has plagued some hospitals and medical centers nationwide for years, the pandemic added new layers of stress, as nurses worked through consecutive coronavirus outbreaks that killed and disabled thousands of health-care workers. The upswing of flu and respiratory diseases in the past several months has only worsened the situation.

With no end in sight, legions of nurses have left the field, retired early or switched jobs. Some 100,000 nurses left the industry between 2020 and 2021, according to an industry trade-journal estimate. Although there were 4.4 million registered nurses with active licenses as of 2021, according to the National Council of State Boards of Nursing, only 3 million people were employed as nurses, according to the Department of Labor.

Those who have remained have faced increasingly heavy workloads. They also gained more leverage in the tight labor market, leading nurses to organize new unions and even walk away from jobs to join the ranks of traveling nurses who parachute in from out of town to fill staffing gaps and tend to be paid more.

“The issue is that we are understaffed, not only in my facility, but really across the nation,” said Cathy Kennedy, president of the California Nurses Association, which represents 100,000 nurses in the state. “We are seeing an upsurge of nurses that are saying, ‘We’ve had enough. We want to organize. We really want our hospital to hear what we have to say.'”

The New York-based hospital company Montefiore did not respond to a request for comment about staffing levels. But the company touted the agreement reached by negotiators and the hospital late Wednesday that ended the strike, with some big concessions for nurses. The agreement includes a 19.1 percent raise over three years, 170 new nursing positions and emergency-room staffing ratios based on the severity of patient needs.

Harlow Sumerford, a spokesperson for HCA Healthcare, said Thursday’s protest was “an expected tactic as we are set to begin our regular cycle of bargaining with the labor union in the next few weeks.” He noted that the hospital system staffs its “teams appropriately and in compliance with state regulations.”

In the years leading into the pandemic, there were roughly enough new nurses entering the pipeline to replace the ones that retired, according to a 2022 McKinsey & Co report titled “Assessing the lingering impact of COVID-19 on the nursing workforce.” But covid changed everything. “Over the past two years, McKinsey found that nurses consistently, and increasingly, report planning to leave the workforce at higher rates compared with the past decade,” the report found, a trend that continued even as covid cases fell.

From coast to coast, mounting nursing shortages have triggered a widespread set of issues for nurses and patients, according to conversations with nine nurses. Nurses say there have been significant declines in patient care, including delayed cancer treatments and critical checkups for expecting mothers. Medications are administered late or missed altogether. The shortage has also taken a toll on nurses’ mental and physical health, as they are forced to skip meal and rest breaks and get little recovery time between shifts.

Organized strikes, and even the threat of strikes, have succeeded in pushing some hospitals to agree to address some staffing concerns. This winter nurses have won guarantees of investment in new hires, a bigger role in shaping nurse-to-patient ratios, and strong wage gains that could help with retention.

In Kalamazoo, Mich., 300 nurses – as part of the Michigan Nurses Association – won a 20 percent raise in the first year of their contract, after threatening to strike at Ascension Borgess hospital over staffing levels in December. Night nurse Lori Batzloff said the pay increase should help retain nurses. But she is concerned about her hospital’s ability to weather another covid outbreak.

Last September, in Minnesota, 15,000 nurses went on strike for three days over understaffing concerns, in the largest-ever private nurses’ strike. When hospitals still refused to concede to their demands, the nurses threatened to walk out a second time, for three weeks in December. With days to go before the strike deadline, more than a dozen hospitals, for the first time, agreed to give nurses a say in staffing levels, averting the strike.

“I think the hospitals looked around and understood that they couldn’t withstand, frankly, a 15,000-member three-week strike in Minnesota,” said Chris Rubesch, vice president of the Minnesota nurses union. “That would be crippling.”

A Twin Cities Hospital group spokesman said in a press statement when the deal was struck that the new agreement shows that hospitals and labor can work together to “develop staffing language the meets the unique needs” of hospitals, nurses and patients.

For other health-care workers who typically earn less than nurses – such as health-care technicians, dietitians and nursing assistants – the impacts of understaffing are just as bad.

“There is no morale left,” said Gregorio Oropeza, an admitting representative who registers patients at Cedars-Sinai Hospital in Marina del Rey, Calif. Oropeza has colleagues who have had to drop out of the workforce after suffering severe symptoms from covid. “Everyone is there because they need a paycheck. They’re terrified of getting sick, but it is a job and they have to uphold a household.”

Oropeza and 400 of his colleagues went on a five-day strike with SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West in December over understaffing and pay concerns, but union contract negotiations have continue to stall.

Marni Usheroff, a spokesperson for Cedars-Sinai Marina del Rey, said the hospital recognizes that its employees are its “most important asset” and that during contract negotiations, the hospital has shown its “commitment to maintain staffing levels that provide important support for our health care workers.”

During the coronavirus pandemic, nurses have been organizing and winning union elections, even as unionization rates in the United States have declined.

“I remember in the middle of the pandemic, predicting that once the dust settles, there could be an explosion of new organizing and strikes to accomplish safe staffing levels,” said Sal Rosselli, president of the National Union of Healthcare Workers, which represents 15,000 health-care employees in California. “And that’s what’s happening now.”

While some nurses are organizing, many have dropped out of the field entirely or plan to leave the industry. A 2022 survey by the staffing agency ShiftMed found that two-thirds of nurses say they are inclined to leave the profession within the next two years.

Some nurses have quit their full-time jobs to take on highly lucrative contract work, traveling to other parts of the country and temporarily filling in at short-staffed hospitals. The option has become popular among younger nurses, in particular many who are looking to pay off student loans. Demand for travel nurses is roughly double what it was at the start of the pandemic, although it has tempered since the height of outbreak, according to April Hansen, an executive at Aya Healthcare, the country’s largest travel-nurse agency.

Nurses unions say hospitals are to blame for nursing shortage problems, noting that health-care companies made a deliberate choice not to devote resources to hiring more nurses. Many hospitals profited during the pandemic, receiving millions in covid-related aid, rewarding investors with generous stock buybacks and paying executives seven-figure salaries. In the Bronx, the CEO of Montefiore, Philip Ozuah, took home $7.4 million in 2020.

“I feel that hospital administrators are hypocrites,” said Zulma Gutierrez, 42, an intensive care unit nurse at Montefiore who went on strike this week. “They’re going home making millions and we’re going home with guilt.”

But a growing and aging population, combined with the continued waves of covid, mean demand for nurses will continue to soar in the coming years. By 2025, the United States is projected to be between 200,000 and 450,000 nurses short, according to the McKinsey report.

Your Gas Stove Is Bad For Your Health. Here’s What To Know.

HuffPost

Your Gas Stove Is Bad For Your Health. Here’s What To Know.

Jillian Wilson – January 13, 2023

If you're using a gas stove at home, it's important to open a window while you cook.
If you’re using a gas stove at home, it’s important to open a window while you cook.

If you’re using a gas stove at home, it’s important to open a window while you cook.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission announced that it is exploring potential regulations on gas stoves, which, unbeknownst to many, have harmful impacts on our health and the environment.

While rumors of a potential ban were circulating a few days ago, CPSC Chair Alexander Hoehn-Saric put those to rest in a Jan. 11 statement saying he is “not looking to ban gas stoves and the CPSC has no proceeding to do so.”

Instead, the agency will prioritize research about the health risks of gas stoves and aim to create solutions that address these risks. So, no one is coming for your gas stove — but it’s worth knowing that there are serious health risks that come with natural gas cooking.

The main pollutant of concern when it comes to gas stoves is nitrogen dioxide, said Shelly Miller, a professor of medical engineering at the University of Colorado Boulder.

This is “a pollutant that we also regulate for outdoor air quality. It’s an EPA-regulated pollutant,” she told HuffPost. For reference, the EPA — or U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — regulates air pollutants based on health standards that are reviewed every few years, Miller added.

“We know nitrogen dioxide is bad, we know that the EPA regulates it but only outdoors,” Miller said, “but here we have this major source indoors, which we have not paid any attention to for decades.”

And it’s something worth paying attention to. Below, experts share the health risks of gas stoves and what to do if you have one:

Gas stoves can have negative effects on the health of both children and adults.

“Nitrogen dioxide is a respiratory irritant,” Miller said, adding that it can increase the risk of asthma attacks, incidence of respiratory infections and respiratory disease.

Miller said increased incidence of respiratory diseases is most often seen in sensitive populations like older adults and children.

Bryan Cummings, a research scientist at Drexel University’s College of Engineering, pointed out a recent study that found that 12.7% of childhood asthma in the U.S. can be attributed to the use of gas stoves indoors.

But pollutants from gas stoves don’t only impact kids. Nitrogen dioxide can exacerbate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, commonly known as COPD, in adults, and some evidence says that it can negatively impact cognitive performance in folks of all ages, Cummings added.

As an oxidant, it may impact your lungs and your cardiovascular system, Miller explained. In fact, according to the American Heart Association, nitrogen dioxide exposure puts you at increased risk of heart attack.

It is worth noting that nitrogen dioxide exposure does not only come from your gas stove, but also comes from factors like car pollution too. But, according to Cummings, the release of nitrogen dioxide in your home is particularly harmful because it’s emitted into a confined space that often does not have great circulation with outdoor air. And, as Miller noted above, nitrogen dioxide emissions outdoors are regulated.

Studies show that gas stoves cause increased rates of childhood asthma.
Studies show that gas stoves cause increased rates of childhood asthma.

Studies show that gas stoves cause increased rates of childhood asthma.

If you have a gas stove, there are things you can do to reduce your exposure to nitrogen dioxide.

First, figure out if the vent on your gas stove expels the air outdoors or just circulates it around your kitchen.

Cummings said if your gas stove is below a microwave and does not have a cooking hood, it likely just pushes the pollutants around your home. If you have a hood above your stove, it’s likely that the pollutants are disposed of outdoors.

But this is just a general rule of thumb and isn’t necessarily true across the board; it’s worth checking with your landlord or the company that installed your appliances to determine where the air goes. If you find that your cooking hood moves the air outdoors, just make sure you turn on your air vent every time you cook (and not just when it gets smoky in your home).

If your vent does not expel the air outdoors, both Cummings and Miller said you should open a window — even just a few inches — while you use your gas stove. And if you don’t have a window in your kitchen, open a window elsewhere in your home to reduce the amount of pollution mixing in with your home’s air.

Additionally, if you have a HEPA air filter, you should turn that on when you cook, Miller suggested. “The air cleaner will remove all the particulate matter [but] you have to have a filter with activated carbon to remove the nitrogen dioxide,” she said.

Air cleaners with activated carbon are easy to find — you can try an Insignia air purifier from Best Buy, a Levoit air cleaner from Amazon and more.

When it comes time for a new stove, it’s worth purchasing a non-gas stove.

Getting a new stove is costly for those who own homes and largely impossible for those who rent. But, if you are in a position now or in a few years to get a new stove, consider an electric or induction stove instead of a gas stove, both experts said.

“They produce absolutely zero emissions from the heating process itself,” Cummings said. “Cooking your food might produce some emissions but that’s a totally different classification of pollution than what you get from a gas stove.”

In other words, you won’t be breathing in those harmful pollutants that come from natural gas.

On top of the health concerns, these electrically powered stoves are also better for the environment (though induction stoves, which are more energy-efficient, are also more costly).

When it comes to adding regulations around gas stoves, Miler said a decision to implement some restrictions would be great for the sake of climate change. “We need to start moving away from fossil fuel use in our homes — it would just be a huge leap forward from this issue,” she noted. Gas stoves use fossil fuels, which are bad for the planet.

Cummings added that some parts of the U.S. still get electricity (which powers both electric and induction stoves) from fossil fuels, but these stoves “will become increasingly cleaner to use as our electricity grid transitions to renewable.”

All in all, moving to a non-gas-powered stove is ideal, though impossible for many people (and that does not make you a bad person, Cummings stressed).

If you are stuck with a gas stove for the time being, follow the advice above to lower the health risks as you cook.

California storms erase extreme drought from nearly all of state

Yahoo! News

California storms erase extreme drought from nearly all of state

In a single week, the portions of the state classified as experiencing extreme drought in California fell from 27.1% to 0.32%.

David Knowles, Senior Editor – January 12, 2023

Flooding from the Sacramento and American rivers, near downtown Sacramento, Calif.
Flooding from the Sacramento and American rivers, near downtown Sacramento, Calif., Jan. 11. (Fred Greaves/Reuters)

BERKELEY, Calif. — There is a silver lining to the relentless California storms that have so far killed at least 18 people and racked up an estimated $1 billion in damages: In a single week, extreme drought conditions that had gripped almost one-third of the state have been downgraded nearly everywhere.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released an updated map Thursday that accounts for the series of atmospheric river storms that have doused the state in recent weeks with more than 24 trillion gallons of water. It shows that “extreme drought,” the second-highest classification used by the agency has been all but erased from the interior sections of the state.

U.S. Drought Monitor map
A U.S. Drought Monitor map of conditions in California. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

In a single week, the portions of the state classified as experiencing extreme drought in California fell from 27.1% to 0.32%, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Still, 46% of the state remains classified in “severe drought,” though that figure fell from 71% a week ago.

Drought conditions in California on the week of Jan. 3
Drought conditions in California from the week of Jan. 3. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

Extreme drought conditions are still widespread in Nevada and Utah, and the California storms have not affected the Colorado River Basin, including the badly depleted reservoirs Lake Mead and Lake Powell, where the federal government has been forced to implement water restrictions.

In order to completely eliminate drought conditions across the American West several consecutive seasons of precipitation at 120% to 200% of normal would need to occur, ABC News reported. A 2022 study published in the journal Nature found that the past 22 years have been the driest period in the Southwest in the last 1,200 years.

As temperatures continue to rise thanks to humankind’s burning of fossil fuels, one effect, called the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, is that there is 7% more moisture in the atmosphere per every degree Celsius of warming. That means extreme downpours like those in California in recent days can become more likely when conditions are right. By the same token, however, that relationship can also spur what UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain has called “flash droughts,” in which extremely dry conditions can arise quickly, even in a year of above-average precipitation.

“The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship also increases what is known as the vapor pressure deficit,” Swain told Yahoo News in November, which means that “the atmosphere’s potential to act as a giant sponge and extract more water out of the landscape has increased, even if the relative humidity has stayed the same. This Clausius-Clapeyron relationship is actually what drives the atmosphere’s capacity to dry out the landscape faster.”

For now, however, the precipitation picture is much brighter than it was even a week ago. Water levels in depleted state reservoirs have been rising, and California’s snow pack as of Wednesday measured 226% of normal. While the risks of flash flooding remain high, more rain and snow is in the forecast for the coming week.

Doctors say men are getting more vasectomies amid abortion restrictions nationwide

Yahoo! News

Doctors say men are getting more vasectomies amid abortion restrictions nationwide

Jayla Whitfield Anderson, ·National Reporter – January 12, 2023

A doctor writes on a clipboard, posing questions to a patient.
Doctor and patient. (Getty Images)

After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 landmark case that protected abortion rights, medical professionals say they have seen a drastic increase in vasectomies.

Vasectomies offer a form of permanent birth control for men, and roughly 500,000 are performed every year in the United States.

“There was an increase of basically 100% in the number of vasectomies from the moment Roe v. Wade was overturned,” Dr. Esgar Guarin, the co-founder of SimpleVas Medical Clinic, told Yahoo News.

Guarin, a doctor in Des Moines, Iowa, trained in maternal, child and reproductive health, says interest from male patients in learning more about the procedure increased after the Roe decision.

“Within only 48 hours, we signed up 50% of the patients that we normally sign up in a month, just immediately after June 24, and that trend continued,” he said.

In November, a Planned Parenthood office in St. Louis also noted a spike in vasectomies in an interview with Live Action. “Since the Dobbs decision, we have seen an increasing number of male-bodied people coming and requesting this service [vasectomies],” Dr. Margaret Baum of Planned Parenthood told Live Action. “We performed 142 vasectomies in 2021. Already this year, we’ve done close to 200 in 2022.”

But doctors say this isn’t the only major event that has pushed men to seek a permanent form of contraception.

“During the Great Recession, there was a marked increase in requests for vasectomies, because people felt that the economy was such that they couldn’t afford to have children,” Marc Goldstein, professor of reproductive medicine and urology at Weill Cornell Medical College, told Yahoo News.

Between 2007 and 2009, an estimated 150,000 to 180,000 additional men received a vasectomy, according to the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM).

“And we’re seeing exactly the same thing happening now,” Goldstein said. “We’ve seen a doubling or tripling overall in the number of vasectomies, and they marked a drop in the number of reversals since Roe v. Wade.”

Abortion rights activists on the march, with signs also reading: Guns should not have more rights than women,
Abortion rights activists hold a sign reading “Vasectomy Prevents Abortion” at a protest in downtown Los Angeles, on June 24, 2022. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

Doctors note a slight increase in the number of younger patients of less than 30 years old with no children seeking a vasectomy, with the largest increase among in men in their mid- to late 30s.

“We saw a bump up of about 20%-25% from 35- to 37-year-old men who had decided not to have any children in years prior, but had done nothing about it, and were purely relying on the partner for their contraception,” Guarin said.

As abortion rights are restricted nationwide, experts say vasectomies do not provide a replacement for access to abortion.

“Contraception is an integral part of ensuring reproductive justice, freedom and autonomy, but it always has to exist with access to other pregnancy outcomes, including access to abortion,” Katrina Kimport, professor of reproductive sciences at the University of California, San Francisco, told Yahoo News.

Even though medical professionals say vasectomies are cheaper, safer and faster, more women get their tubes tied. Vasectomies, however, are an outpatient procedure with a low risk of complications, and take less than an hour to complete.

“Tubal ligation and other procedures for women are options, but they usually have a higher risk of complications and may cost more,” Dr. Nicholas Toepfer, a UCHealth urologist, said in a UCHealth article.

“There has never been a single death from a vasectomy ever. In tubal ligation every single year in this country alone, 25 to 30 women die from getting a tubal ligation, because it requires a general anesthetic,” Goldstein said.

Since vasectomies have rarely been the popular choice, women have often carried the burden of preventing pregnancies.

“Women and people who can get pregnant are largely expected to prevent pregnancy on their own for 30 years or more. And there’s not enough public recognition for how hard that is,” Krystale Littlejohn, associate professor of sociology at the University of Oregon, told Yahoo News. “Responsibility for preventing pregnancy shouldn’t be a stopgap effort for men, and it shouldn’t be something that is done periodically. It is a long-term commitment to their partners and to themselves.”

Doctors suggest that men could step up more often. “It’s sad to see that it took restricting the rights of an individual to choose about her own body, for the counterparts to say, ‘You know what, I probably should be doing something, because I cannot rely on the very last option, because it’s no longer available,’” Guarin said.

What Happens To Your Body When You Cut Out Carbs? A Dietitian Tells Us.

She Finds

What Happens To Your Body When You Cut Out Carbs? A Dietitian Tells Us.

Georgia Dodd – January 12, 2023

High-carb foods have always been a no-no when it comes to weight loss. You may have been advised to avoid carbs in your diet as much as possible, but health experts stress that this is not necessarily true. Foods high in carbohydrates are a crucial part of any healthy diet. Carbohydrates provide the body with glucose, which is then converted into energy used to support your body and physical activity. We spoke with Dana Ellis Hunnes, PhD, a senior clinical dietitian at UCLA medical center, assistant professor at UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, and author of Recipe For Survival, and Jamie Nadeau, a registered dietitian and nutritionist. Read on to learn more!

What do carbs do for your body and what you’ll notice without it

It’s no secret carbs are one of the most delicious food groups. But there are some carbs, like pasta, bread, and potato chips (which can lead to inflammation!), that are actually very bad for your health. They can lead to chronic inflammation, gut issues, weight gain, and more.

“Carbs, short for carbohydrates, are long chains of carbon-containing molecules, a.k.a. sugars that are found in plant foods,” Hunnes explains. “When we consume and digest these plant foods, including grains, fruits, vegetables, (and dairy) we break them down into more simple, sugars, known as glucose, fructose, and galactose (dairy). Our bodies use these sugars to fuel our cells.”

“Carbohydrates are one of the macronutrients (there are three of them: carbohydrates, proteins, and fats). Macronutrients are where we get all of our energy (calories) from. Carbohydrates break down to their simplest form, sugar, to give your body energy,” Nadeau agrees.

While not all carbs are bad for you, there is one specific type of carbohydrate that you should cut out of your diet if you want to lose weight: refined carbs. “Carbohydrates are found in fruits, vegetables, grains, and legumes. Foods have different amounts of carbohydrates,” Nadeau notes. “For example, broccoli has fewer carbohydrates than potatoes. You’ll also find carbohydrates in added sugars like table sugar, honey, agave nectar, coconut sugar, and typical “sweets” like cookies, cakes, and candy. Our bodies also “handle” certain types of carbs differently. For example, you’ll get a bigger blood sugar spike from candy compared to beans.”

Just because some carbohydrates stall weight loss, that doesn’t mean you should never eat carbs again. It’s just not healthy, because, Hunnes says, “our muscle cells and our brain cells live off of glucose. If we do not have glucose in our body, we start to break down muscle and fat and turn them into alternate fuel sources that are not as efficient at being used.” There’s no need to cut carbs out of your diet completely. You need healthy carbs, like fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, in your diet to maintain your energy.

“Carbohydrates, especially high fiber carbohydrates like whole grains, legumes, and fruits are full of health-boosting nutrients that are great for our health,” Nadeau agrees. Instead of cutting out carbs, I recommend being mindful of the ones that you’re choosing regularly. Choosing high fiber carbohydrates helps to stabilize blood sugar and helps to make your meal more satisfying.” Good to know!

Well, there you have it! Both experts emphasize that completely removing all carbohydrates from your diet is not only impossible but also extremely unhealthy. Instead, try and cut out refined carbohydrates, like potato chips, that only harm your body. This can reduce inflammation, improve gut health, and promote an overall healthier body!

Gov. Katie Hobbs issued a ‘wake-up call’ on groundwater. Is anyone listening?

AZ Central – The Arizona Republic

Gov. Katie Hobbs issued a ‘wake-up call’ on groundwater. Is anyone listening?

Joanna Allhands, Arizona Republic – January 11, 2023

Gov. Katie Hobbs give her State of the State address to the Arizona House of Representatives during the opening session of the 56th Legislature on Jan. 9, 2023, in Phoenix.
Gov. Katie Hobbs give her State of the State address to the Arizona House of Representatives during the opening session of the 56th Legislature on Jan. 9, 2023, in Phoenix.

Gov. Katie Hobbs called it a “wake-up call” on water.

Whether it is remains to be seen.

The newly elected governor spent a good chunk of her first State of the State address talking about the “challenge of our time: Arizona’s decades-long drought, over usage of the Colorado River, and the combined ramifications on our water supply, our forests and our communities.”

She released a long-awaited model that shows parts of the far West Valley don’t have enough groundwater to sustain all users for the long term (more on that in a second).

And she called for swift action – particularly to address rural groundwater problems that have been festering for decades.

It’s the right tone, but will lawmakers agree?

Hobbs struck the tone that many in the water community have long sought from elected leaders – one that noted we’re not playing around, that there are consequential decisions we must make (and soon) to protect our dwindling water supplies.

But how willing is the Legislature to play along?

As infrastructure crumbles:Small towns face escalating water fees

There have been rumors aplenty about what may or may not be addressed this session, and right now, there are few answers, particularly on how far lawmakers might be willing to go on water regulation, something they have resisted for years.

Former Rep. Regina Cobb got nowhere on an effort to give rural communities more tools to manage groundwater use and more flexibility to choose which measures best fit their circumstances.

Retooled legislation is expected again this session, with more detail on how these new authorities would work with existing regulations.

And Hobbs is clearly pressing to have this discussion.

Hobbs’ council must have clear goals, deadlines

She told lawmakers she would convene a council to study ways to modernize and expand the Groundwater Management Act of 1980, which created Irrigation Non-expansion Areas and Active Management Areas, as well as an Assured Water Supply program that requires new subdivisions to prove they have a 100-year water supply before lots can be platted.

Hobbs also promised to include money in her proposed budget, due to be released later this week, to support rural communities that want to form Active Management Areas, the state’s most stringent form of groundwater regulation.

Granted, her predecessor created a council to study urban and rural groundwater management, but without strong direction and deadlines, it was generally where ideas went to die.

Hobbs cannot make the same mistake.

What if fast-growing areas can’t grow?

Because, as she correctly noted, real issues are beginning to manifest – even in metro Phoenix, where groundwater management is most robust.

Don’t overlook the significance of the report Hobbs released, one that she and others have claimed was withheld by former Gov. Doug Ducey.

The report found that the Lower Hassayampa groundwater subbasin – which contains Buckeye, one of the fastest-growing cities in the nation – is 4.4 million acre-feet shy of the groundwater it needs to service users for the long haul.

That’s roughly half of what a similar model found in the Pinal Active Management Area south of metro Phoenix. But presuming the state Department of Water Resources treats the Hassayampa subbasin’s imbalance the same way – meaning, it no longer allows developers to grow solely on groundwater – that could have major implications for Buckeye and the massive housing projects that have been proposed nearby.

New subdivisions would all but be shut down in that subbasin, under the state’s Assured Water Supply program, unless developers can secure and count renewable supplies toward their certificates, which are required to plat lots.

Arizona needed a call to arms. Now what?

Whether it’s real or not, there is a lot of fear that lawmakers will try to loosen the rules this session to maintain the status quo on growth in the outskirts, which has heavily relied on groundwater. Hobbs could certainly veto any such effort.

But if we agree to abide by the rules – and we should, because loosening them now would be disastrous for our negotiating position on even more painful Colorado River cuts – we’re going to have to rethink a lot of assumptions about how we continue to grow.

This is not going to be easy work.

Especially if Hobbs’ speech was not the wake-up call she hoped it would be. Or if Rep. Gail Griffin, the chair of the House natural resources committee, continues to be the brick wall upon which all new water regulation explodes.

The governor will need allies willing to go around that wall, if it remains.

But give Hobbs credit for issuing a call to arms. The days of allowing 80% of the state to pump indiscriminately, without ground rules to protect everyone, are over.

And even in areas with regulation, we need to up our game.

US official warns of risks posed by heavy electric vehicles

Associated Press

US official warns of risks posed by heavy electric vehicles

Tom Krisher – January 11, 2023

FILE – Jennifer Homendy of the National Transportation Safety Board speaks during a news conference, Oct. 3, 2019, in Windsor Locks, Conn. On Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2023, Homendy, the chairwoman of the National Transportation Safety Board, said she is concerned about the risk that heavy electric vehicles pose if they collide with lighter vehicles. (AP Photo/Chris Ehrmann, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

DETROIT (AP) — The head of the National Transportation Safety Board expressed concern Wednesday about the safety risks that heavy electric vehicles pose if they collide with lighter vehicles.

The official, Jennifer Homendy, raised the issue in a speech in Washington to the Transportation Research Board. She noted, by way of example, that an electric GMC Hummer weighs about 9,000 pounds (4,000 kilograms), with a battery pack that alone is 2,900 pounds (1,300 kilograms) — roughly the entire weight of a typical Honda Civic.

“I’m concerned about the increased risk of severe injury and death for all road users from heavier curb weights and increasing size, power, and performance of vehicles on our roads, including electric vehicles,” Homendy said in remarks prepared for the group.

The extra weight that EVs typically carry stems from the outsize mass of their batteries. To achieve 300 or more miles (480 or more kilometers) of range per charge from an EV, batteries have to weigh thousands of pounds.

Some battery chemistries being developed have the potential to pack more energy into less mass. But for now, there’s a mismatch in weight between EVs and smaller internal combustion vehicles. EVs also deliver instant power to their wheels, making them accelerate faster in most cases than most gas-powered cars, trucks and SUVs.

Homendy said she was encouraged by the Biden administration’s plans to phase out carbon emissions from vehicles to deal with the climate crisis. But she said she still worries about safety risks resulting from a proliferation of EVs on roads ands highways.

“We have to be careful that we aren’t also creating unintended consequences: More death on our roads,” she said. “Safety, especially when it comes to new transportation policies and new technologies, cannot be overlooked.”

Homendy noted that Ford’s F-150 Lightning EV pickup is 2,000 to 3,000 pounds (900 to 1,350 kilograms) heavier than the same model’s combustion version. The Mustang Mach E electric SUV and the Volvo XC40 EV, she said, are roughly 33% heavier than their gasoline counterparts.

“That has a significant impact on safety for all road users,” Homendy added.

The NTSB investigates transportation crashes but has no authority to make regulations. For vehicles, such authority rests largely with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Even apart from EVs, the nation’s roads are crowded with heavy vehicles, thanks to a decadelong boom in sales of larger cars, trucks and SUVs that’s led to extreme mismatches in collisions with smaller vehicles. But electric vehicles are typically much heavier than even the largest trucks and SUVs that are powered by gasoline or diesel.

Michael Brooks, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety, said he, too, is concerned about the weight of EVs because buyers seem to be demanding a range of 300 or more miles per charge, requiring heavy batteries.

Setting up a charging network to accommodate that may be a mistake from a safety perspective, Brooks said.

“These bigger, heavier batteries are going to cause more damage,” he said. “It’s a simple matter of mass and speed.”

Brooks said he knows of little research done on the safety risks of increasing vehicle weights. In 2011, the National Bureau of Economic Research published a paper that said being hit by a vehicle with an added 1,000 pounds increases by 47% the probability of being killed in a crash.

He points out that electric vehicles have very high horsepower ratings, allowing them to accelerate quickly even in crowded urban areas. “People are not trained to handle that type of acceleration. It’s just not something that drivers are used to doing,” Brooks said.

Also, many newer electric SUVs are tall with limited visibility that poses risks to pedestrians or drivers of smaller vehicles, he said.

Sales of new electric vehicles in the U.S. rose nearly 65% last year to 807,000 — about 5.8% of all new vehicle sales. The Biden administration has set a goal of having EVs reach 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030 and is offering tax credits of up to $7,500 to get there. The consulting firm LMC Automotive has made a more modest prediction: It expects EVs to make up one-third of the new-vehicle market by 2030.

UN says ozone layer slowly healing, hole to mend by 2066

Associated Press

UN says ozone layer slowly healing, hole to mend by 2066

Seth Borenstein – January 9, 2023

FILE - In this NASA false-color image, the blue and purple shows the hole in Earth's protective ozone layer over Antarctica on Oct. 5, 2022. Earth’s protective ozone layer is slowly but noticeably healing at a pace that would fully mend the hole over Antarctica in about 43 years, a new United Nations report says. (NASA via AP, File)
In this NASA false-color image, the blue and purple shows the hole in Earth’s protective ozone layer over Antarctica on Oct. 5, 2022. Earth’s protective ozone layer is slowly but noticeably healing at a pace that would fully mend the hole over Antarctica in about 43 years, a new United Nations report says. (NASA via AP, File)

DENVER (AP) — Earth’s protective ozone layer is slowly but noticeably healing at a pace that would fully mend the hole over Antarctica in about 43 years, a new United Nations report says.

A once-every-four-years scientific assessment found recovery in progress, more than 35 years after every nation in the world agreed to stop producing chemicals that chomp on the layer of ozone in Earth’s atmosphere that shields the planet from harmful radiation linked to skin cancer, cataracts and crop damage.

“In the upper stratosphere and in the ozone hole we see things getting better,” said Paul Newman, co-chair of the scientific assessment.

The progress is slow, according to the report presented Monday at the American Meteorological Society convention in Denver. The global average amount of ozone 18 miles (30 kilometers) high in the atmosphere won’t be back to 1980 pre-thinning levels until about 2040, the report said. And it won’t be back to normal in the Arctic until 2045.

Antarctica, where it’s so thin there’s an annual giant gaping hole in the layer, won’t be fully fixed until 2066, the report said.

Scientists and environmental advocates across the world have long hailed the efforts to heal the ozone hole — springing out of a 1987 agreement called the Montreal Protocol that banned a class of chemicals often used in refrigerants and aerosols — as one of the biggest ecological victories for humanity.

“Ozone action sets a precedent for climate action. Our success in phasing out ozone-eating chemicals shows us what can and must be done – as a matter of urgency — to transition away from fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gases and so limit temperature increase,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas said in a statement.

Signs of healing were reported four years ago but were slight and more preliminary. “Those numbers of recovery have solidified a lot,” Newman said.

The two chief chemicals that munch away at ozone are in lower levels in the atmosphere, said Newman, chief Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. Chlorine levels are down 11.5% since they peaked in 1993 and bromine, which is more efficient at eating ozone but is at lower levels in the air, dropped 14.5% since its 1999 peak, the report said.

That bromine and chlorine levels “stopped growing and is coming down is a real testament to the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol,” Newman said.

“There has been a sea change in the way our society deals with ozone depleting substances,” said scientific panel co-chair David W. Fahey, director of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s chemical sciences lab.

Decades ago, people could go into a store and buy a can of refrigerants that eat away at the ozone, punch a hole in it and pollute the atmosphere, Fahey said. Now, not only are the substances banned but they are no longer much in people’s homes or cars, replaced by cleaner chemicals.

Natural weather patterns in the Antarctic also affect ozone hole levels, which peak in the fall. And the past couple years, the holes have been a bit bigger because of that but the overall trend is one of healing, Newman said.

This is “saving 2 million people every year from skin cancer,” United Nations Environment Programme Director Inger Andersen told The Associated Press earlier this year in an email.

A few years ago emissions of one of the banned chemicals, chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11), stopped shrinking and was rising. Rogue emissions were spotted in part of China but now have gone back down to where they are expected, Newman said.

A third generation of those chemicals, called HFC, was banned a few years ago not because it would eat at the ozone layer but because it is a heat-trapping greenhouse gas. The new report says that the ban would avoid 0.5 to 0.9 degrees (0.3 to 0.5 degrees Celsius) of additional warming.

The report also warned that efforts to artificially cool the planet by putting aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect the sunlight would thin the ozone layer by as much as 20% in Antarctica.

Federal agency considers ban on gas stoves following report linking them to childhood asthma

Yahoo! News

Federal agency considers ban on gas stoves following report linking them to childhood asthma

A study released last week found gas stoves were the cause of 12.7% of childhood asthma cases in the United States.

Davis Knowles, Senior Editor – January 9, 2023

Blue flames rise from the burner of a natural gas stove
A blue flame from the burner of a natural gas stove. (David McNew/Getty Images)

The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission is considering a federal ban on gas stoves in response to a growing body of scientific research has linked them to a variety of health problems.

“This is a hidden hazard,” Richard Trumka Jr., an agency commissioner, told Bloomberg in an interview. “Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”

The agency will begin public comment sessions this winter as it begins weighing restrictions on emissions from gas stoves that have found to be harmful to human health.

Last week, a study in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health concluded that gas stoves, which are used in roughly 40% of U.S. homes, were responsible for 12.7% of childhood asthma cases in the country. In all, the study found, gas stoves are responsible for giving asthma to 650,000 children in the U.S.

“When the gas stove is turned on, and when it’s burning at that hot temperature, it releases a number of air pollutants,” Brady Seals, a co-author of the study and the carbon-free buildings manager at the energy policy think tank RMI, told Yahoo News. “So these are things like particulate matter, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, along with others. So, for example, nitrogen dioxide is a known respiratory irritant. And the EPA, in 2016, said that short-term exposure to NO2 causes respiratory effects like asthma attacks.”

The dangers of using gas stoves have long been known. In 2013, a meta-analysis published in the International Journal of Epidemiology found that children living in homes with gas stoves were 42% more likely to experience symptoms of asthma than those that lived with electric ranges and ovens, while 24% were more likely to be diagnosed with lifetime asthma.

“Cooking with gas stoves creates nitrogen dioxide and releases additional tiny airborne particles known as PM2.5, both of which are lung irritants. Nitrogen dioxide has been linked with childhood asthma,” Wynne Armand, a physician at Massachusetts General Hospital, wrote in September at Harvard Health Publishing. “During 2019 alone, almost two million cases worldwide of new childhood asthma were estimated to be due to nitrogen dioxide pollution.”

Cory Booker
Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey is one of a group of lawmakers concerned with the effects of gas stoves. (Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters)

In December, Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., sent a letter co-signed by 18 Democratic lawmakers to Consumer Product Safety Commission Chairman Alexander Hoehn-Saric, asking the agency to take steps to limit the risks posed by gas stoves, which they said were more significant for lower-income Americans.

“These emissions can create a cumulative burden to households that are already more likely to face higher exposure to both indoor and outdoor air pollution. Statistics show that Black, Latino, and low-income households are more likely to experience disproportionate air pollution, either from being more likely to be located near a waste incinerator or coal ash site, or living in smaller homes with poor ventilation, malfunctioning appliances, mold, dust mites, secondhand smoke, lead dust, pests, and other maintenance deficiencies,” the letter stated.

Using a stove’s ventilation hood greatly reduces the health risks associated with gas ranges and ovens, but many homes don’t have them. And even using a hood doesn’t obviate the health risks. A 2022 study by researchers at Stanford University found that gas stoves regularly leak, and that approximately 40 million units in the U.S. represent problems for human health as well as the emissions that cause climate change.

“Using a 20-year timeframe for methane, annual methane emissions from all gas stoves in U.S. homes have a climate impact comparable to the annual carbon dioxide emissions of 500,000 cars,” the study stated.

Given the number of gas stoves currently in American homes, new emissions restrictions could set off a political standoff. On Monday, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, offered a preview of that likely battle.

Kim Jong-un’s midlife crisis: ‘He’s crying after drinking a lot’

The Telegraph

Kim Jong-un’s midlife crisis: ‘He’s crying after drinking a lot’

Nicola Smith – January 8, 2023

In heroic mode, Kim Jong-un rides a white horse to climb Mount Paektu near the border with China - KCNA via KNS
In heroic mode, Kim Jong-un rides a white horse to climb Mount Paektu near the border with China – KCNA via KNS

A distinct puncture hole on a fleshy right forearm, seen just inside the sleeve of a boxy Mao suit. This tiny mark, when first spotted on Kim Jong-un in May 2020, caused an instant reaction among observers of the North Korean regime. Was it the trace of an IV drip? A giveaway of surgery? At the very least, it was an unusual sign of vulnerability in a man who rules his nation with a suffocating grasp.

The needle mark was seen on footage shortly after Kim had been out of public view the previous month. Rumours had circulated that he was either dead or in a vegetative state. When he was finally seen, touring a fertiliser factory, foreign medical observers concluded the wound could be related to a cardiovascular procedure, possibly for a stent placement.

The truth never emerged. So furtive is Kim about his health that on rare trips abroad he travels with his own toilets, to prevent foreign intelligence services scouring his excretions for clues. But the dramatic weight loss that followed his 2020 health scare, possibly due to bariatric surgery, is proof that even dictators must endure the trials of middle age.

This month, according to our best guesses, Kim turns 40. It’s indicative of how little the outside world knows about him that conflicting sources will put him at 39 or even 38. Either way, the approach of his fifth decade brings new anxieties.

Kim Jong-un turns 40 - Benjamin Swanson
Kim Jong-un turns 40 – Benjamin Swanson

‘He probably feels more mortal now than he did three years ago, and he had Covid earlier this year apparently as well,’ says Peter Ward, a North Korea expert and post-doctoral researcher at Seoul’s Kookmin University.

The regime itself appears to have acknowledged Kim’s mortality, quietly creating the unprecedented role of ‘first secretary’ – a de facto deputy – in the ruling party hierarchy. ‘It seems to be because they are concerned about managing another illness,’ says Ward.

Since 2011, Kim has secured his power base, brutally putting down any threat to his rule. But the impact of a global financial crisis and sanctions on the North Korean economy –  along with climate change wreaking havoc on farming – could present the leader with his toughest decade yet, thinks Ward.

Adding to the pressure on Kim will be the battle to block the influx and spread of information that could destabilise his strictly curated persona. To North Koreans, Kim is sold as a benevolent provider and semi-divine figure who inspires devotion and fear.https://www.youtube.com/embed/iKM8C829oN8?enablejsapi=1&modestbranding=1&origin=http://www.telegraph.co.uk&rel=0

To the rest of the world, he is almost a figure of ridicule. Last March, when he appeared in a Top Gun-style propaganda movie, clad in a shiny leather jacket and aviator shades while walking past a monster missile – all in dramatic slow motion – he was mocked by the West.

Yet the threat he poses globally is no joke. One muggy Pyongyang morning in August 2017, Lindsey Miller was woken at 6am by a deep rumbling. Her body shook as she ran out to the garden to look into the sky. ‘It sounded like an aeroplane going overhead but it didn’t fade away,’ she recalls now.

The author of North Korea: Like Nowhere Else, Miller lived in Pyongyang from 2017 to 2019 with her diplomat husband. She is one of the few Westerners to have experienced the roar of a North Korean ballistic missile test as a Hwasong-12 took off from the capital’s airport.

City residents carried on normally, Miller recalls. ‘The thing that made me more nervous was the response internationally. I was scared,’ she says. ‘It felt like a very real sense of danger.’ Diplomats were told to pack a bag in case of an emergency exit. ‘There were North Koreans who said how stressed they felt. They were worried about the potential for real war breaking out,’ she adds.

Kim seems set on raising the stakes. Since January 2022, he has test-launched an unprecedented volley of ballistic and cruise missiles, including a purported hypersonic weapon and his largest missile, the Hwasong-17, designed to carry a nuclear warhead more than 9,300 miles, within reach of the US mainland.

A satellite image taken over Wonsan in 2020 - Reuters
A satellite image taken over Wonsan in 2020 – Reuters

There had been a respite from aggression in 2018, during talks between Kim and then-US President Donald Trump. But the cycle of intense military escalation has since resumed; intelligence officials now warn Kim is gearing up for a seventh nuclear test, possibly a tactical weapon, and further confrontation with Seoul, Washington and the West.

So, what could Kim Jong-un be capable of?

In Asia, the significance of turning 40 is an expectation that a person ‘does not waver in their judgements’, explains Chun In-bum, a former lieutenant general in the South Korean army. ‘Kim Jong-un’s legacy is a Maoist, Stalinist legacy,’ says Chun. ‘So if he is 40, he is probably going to think that, “My path is the right path”… He is going to be more convinced of who he is and he will be very hard line.’

A tendency towards ruthless determination was already evident in Kim as a child. ‘He had such an abnormal childhood and was raised in such a dysfunctional family, there is really no other way that he could have turned out,’ says North Korea expert Anna Fifield. ‘From a very early age he was treated like a princeling in a way that not even the British Royal family would be.’

Fifield’s 2019 biography, The Great Successor, pieces together his life story. As a child Kim knew he would be handed the keys to the kingdom, after his dictator father Kim Jong-il identified him as more suitable for iron-fisted rule than his older brothers.

The stunning vistas along the eastern coastal resort of Wonsan provided the backdrop for Kim’s early years, which he spent sequestered in opulent villas with high iron gates. The vast property still plays a special role in his playboy lifestyle.

Kim’s decadence may be concealed from his hungry subjects, but high-resolution satellite imagery allows the world to view his expanding property empire. Recent pictures of the Wonsan enclave have revealed four cruise ships and a marina, with 10 villas dotting a 530m-long white sandy beach and manicured gardens. One boat is 80m in length and is said to boast dual twisting water slides.

He married Ri Sol-ju in 2008, and is thought to have three children. The Kim family enjoys as many as 30 luxury villas, and several private islands, according to Bruce Songhak Chung of South Korea’s Kyungpook National University. And in September, new verified images showed the expansion of ornate buildings at Kim’s lakeside mansion in South Pyongan province.

Kim Jong-un and his daughter pose in front of the Hwasong-17 ‘monster missile’ - KCNA/Reuters
Kim Jong-un and his daughter pose in front of the Hwasong-17 ‘monster missile’ – KCNA/Reuters

But now Kim faces the challenge to all midlifers: how to mitigate the threat he poses to himself. Overweight, a heavy smoker (of local brand 7.27 cigarettes) and drinker (he prefers fine spirits and expensive French wines), he frequently ignores the advice of his doctors and wife to exercise and cut back on indulgences. His father died at the age of 69. Kim’s long absences from the public eye suggest he is dealing with an array of serious health problems.

‘I heard he is crying after drinking a lot. He is very lonely and under pressure,’ says Dr Choi Jinwook, a Seoul-based North Korea academic.

In November, Kim unexpectedly pushed his ‘beloved daughter’ Kim Ju-ae into the spotlight. In her first introduction to the world, Kim was seen gently holding her hand in choreographed photographs as they inspected a new intercontinental ballistic missile. Analysts were left guessing about his message. Was the girl in the white puffy jacket and red shoes his heir? Or simply a prop to humanise him? Ju-ae, who was born in 2012, would be too young to take over in the event of his sudden death.

There is wide consensus among observers that the role would temporarily fall to his ambitious younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, who has often been spotted at his side, carrying his files or even his ashtray. ‘Family interests come first,’ says Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, and an authority on North Korea.

There are no reliable estimates of Kim’s personal fortune – in 2013, South Korean media suggested it could be $5 billion – but his personal assets grow even as dangerous levels of hunger rise in the nation of 26 million.

Last year, he warned citizens to brace for a crisis similar to the 1990s famine, which is believed to have killed up to 3.5 million people. In an interview with me last year, Professor Hazel Smith of the Centre for Korea Studies at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies confirmed that food insecurity is now at a similar level. ‘The conditions that we had in the famine years that precipitated malnutrition are in place today,’ she said. ‘There is starvation in North Korea right now.’

Kim Jong-un watching a Hwasong-12 missile launch
Kim Jong-un watching a Hwasong-12 missile launch

The crisis has been building for years thanks to the Kim family’s mismanagement of the agriculture sector and a centralised system that focuses heavily on providing food for the military and political elites, at the cost of the general population.

In 2019 and 2020, a string of typhoons hammered harvests and sent the cost of maize and rice soaring. ‘There is obviously climate change and long run environmental impacts,’ says Ward. ‘The point is their inability to handle them and the fragility of their supply system is not an environmental issue per se.’

Shortages grew in 2021 even as the pandemic forced the UN’s World Food Programme to suspend operations in the country. It warned that another poor harvest meant the North Korean population, already 40 per cent undernourished, would be short of about 860,000 tonnes of food that year.

Add in the impact of global sanctions and plunging trade with China due to border closures, and by June 2022, the South’s government-backed Korea Development Institute was warning the isolated North could fall into a ‘famine in silence’.

Naturally, Kim has never gone hungry. He was shielded from the 1990s famine as a child in his Wonsan paradise, with huge playrooms filled with toys and kitchens full of pastries and tropical fruits. Yet Fifield’s biography quotes Kenji Fujimoto, a Japanese sushi chef who spent years serving the Kims, as saying that a precocious Kim endured a solitary childhood, cut off without playmates.

Aged 12, he turned up with a ‘pudding-bowl haircut’ under the alias Pak-un at a $20,000-a-year international school in Bern, Switzerland. His maternal aunt and uncle Ko Yong Suk and Ri Gang cared for him and his older brother Jong-chol, later defecting to run a dry-cleaning business outside New York. ‘We lived in a normal house and acted like a normal family,’ Ko told Fifield. ‘I made snacks for the kids. They ate cake and played with Legos.’

Kim, though, was short-tempered, stubborn and intolerant. Classmates from the school recalled a loner who displayed frustration at his academic weaknesses. ‘He kicked us in the shins and even spat at us,’ recounts one in the biography. Others remembered his aggressiveness and trash talk on the basketball court. But his Portuguese friend João Micaelo described him as quiet, decisive and ambitious.

In 1998, Kim’s privileged European bubble imploded after his mother was diagnosed with advanced breast cancer; he returned home to face his destiny, taking on his father’s mantle after his death. His youth and Western education raised hopes that he might be more inclined towards reform, but those expectations quickly fizzled.

‘He realised if he was just treated normally, he wouldn’t be anyone,’ says Fifield. ‘He needed to keep this system completely intact, or his family would lose all of its power and status.’

Kim Jong-un’s 11 years in power have been defined by inhumanity and a determination to establish his reclusive regime as a nuclear state. The glimpse of Kim at the 2018 Singapore Summit, greeting Donald Trump with a wide smile, was all part of an act, says Fifield. ‘The real Kim Jong-un is the one that lives in Pyongyang and is Machiavellian,’ she says. ‘He is trying to strike fear into the heart of the populace and the top officials of the regime, to make sure that they don’t think about crossing him but also to generate the other half of the Machiavellian equation – which is love.

‘He completely played Donald Trump like a fiddle… all of it was designed to bolster his legitimacy at home and give him that brag book of photos where he could show people of North Korea that he is respected and treated as an equal by all these other leaders.’

Meeting with then US President Donald Trump in June 2019 - AFP
Meeting with then US President Donald Trump in June 2019 – AFP

His wife Ri Sol-ju – described by Fifield as the ‘Kate Middleton’ of North Korea in the sense that she is an aspirational yet approachable figure – is said to have tried to modernise the dynasty. She was even seen holding hands with the South Korean First Lady at a summit in 2018. But Kim operates with a chilling cruelty.

Nine years ago he reportedly ordered the execution of his influential uncle and mentor Jang Song-thaek, accusing him of treason. Unconfirmed reports suggest Jang was mown down by anti-aircraft guns, and his body incinerated with flamethrowers. The facts were hazy, but the message was clear. It was reinforced in 2017 by his alleged decision to murder his half-brother Kim Jong-nam at Kuala Lumpur airport using a nerve agent.

Lankov describes Kim as a sometimes capricious, but rational ‘third-generation CEO’; a man prepared to be brutal internally, while also building a nuclear weapons deterrent in order to protect himself and his family from foreign invasion. ‘His goal is very simple – to die a natural death in his palace, decades later. He wants to stay in power. He understands… if he loses power, very soon he will probably lose his life and everyone who he loves,’ Lankov says. ‘He is protecting his life, not lifestyle.’

Heading a meeting of the Workers’ Party of Korea last May
Heading a meeting of the Workers’ Party of Korea last May

Having neutralised the North Korean elites, whose prosperity is entwined with his fate, Kim tried to prevent a popular uprising by enforcing ‘information isolation’. Jihyun Park, 54, a defector and human rights activist who now lives in Manchester, tells me that as a child growing up under Kim Jong-il’s reign, she had no concept of how desperate the North Korean situation was. At school they were ‘brainwashed’ and ‘we believed everything we were told’.

Back then, in the pre-internet era, indoctrination was easier. Kim, while established as royal stock, has a more fragile cult of personality than his father and grandfather, Kim Il-sung, the nation’s founder. The younger Kim’s propaganda is less impressive, reduced to outlandish tales of learning to drive aged three, or a purported ability to control the weather. The first known mural depicting Kim’s exploits – digging at a greenhouse complex – has only recently appeared. It pales in comparison to the resplendent statues of his father and grandfather.

Hanna Song, from the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights in Seoul, said Kim’s youthful interest in technology is also a double-edged sword. He has to keep the younger, tech-savvy generation under control, through draconian laws and punishments for ‘anti-socialist behaviour’. In 2021, he unleashed a crackdown on ‘words, acts, hairstyle and attire of young people’ and a fresh ban on unsanctioned videos, broadcasts and speaking in a ‘South Korean’ style. Radio possession risks years in prison, and access to the open internet is blocked, allowing only a heavily censored state intranet.

Song said defectors’ motivations have shifted, from basic survival in the early 2000s to a new disillusionment with the leadership. ‘We’ve heard about North Koreans who are similar ages to Kim Jong-un who just couldn’t believe they had to serve a leader with his little experience,’ she says.

There could be one more astounding plot twist – and it’s a development that will only add to Kim’s mounting anxieties. In 2017, after his father Kim Jong-nam was poisoned in Malaysia, a young man called Kim Han-sol was spirited out of Macau, via Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, to an unknown destination. He is Kim Jong-un’s nephew.

Now 27, is he the other Kim being groomed in the wings for leadership at the earliest opportunity?

‘He seems to be somewhere in Europe being protected and taken care of, which I think is a great thing to do,’ former lieutenant general Chun tells me, ‘because we need him for some eventualities that might occur in North Korea. I am glad somebody is looking that far ahead.’