There’s a Wobble in the Moon’s Orbit. That’s Not Good.

There’s a Wobble in the Moon’s Orbit. That’s Not Good.

Photo credit: NASA/Earth Observatory
Photo credit: NASA/Earth Observatory

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  • High tides will get even higher as the sea level rises due to climate change.
  • The moon’s 18.6-year “wobble” will also affect the rising tides.
  • Altogether, these factors will lead to more “nuisance flood” days per year.

Thanks to rising sea levels and a wobble in the moon’s orbit, the 2030s will be marked by a record number of high-tide floods around the coastal United States, scientists warn in a new paper.

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So-called “nuisance floods” occur when tides rise between 1.75 and 2 feet above the daily average high tide, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These kinds of floods may not be as extreme as those caused by hurricanes or other natural disasters, but they can still cause water to back up into basements and gurgle from sewage drains.

NOAA reports that more than 600 nuisance floods occurred in the U.S. in 2019, and between May 2020 and April 2021, coastal communities saw twice as many high tide flooding days than they did 20 years ago. But new NASA-led research—published last month in the journal Nature Climate Change—suggests the trend will only grow more dramatic in the 2030s.

Photo credit: NOAA
Photo credit: NOAA

 

Expect to see three to four times more high-tide flood days than at present, all concentrated in the space of a few months of activity each year. Floods may even occur in clusters that last a month or longer, leaving cities along the east and west coasts to deal with floods every day or two, according to NASA.

“It’s the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact,” lead study author Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii, says in a NASA press release. “If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can’t keep operating with its parking lot under water. People lose their jobs because they can’t get to work. Seeping cesspools become a public health issue.”

Climate change, and the rising sea levels that come along with it, is only partly to blame. In fact, the main factor is a “wobble” in the moon’s orbit that regularly occurs every 18.6 years. The wobble isn’t new (it was first reported in 1728, according to NASA), but combined with the effects of climate change, it will create an unprecedented series of high-tide flooding.

Photo credit: tide-forecast.com
Photo credit: tide-forecast.com

 

To understand the significance of this wobble, let’s first unpack the moon’s relationship with the ocean’s tides. The moon physically pulls on the oceans via gravity (for that reason, the sun also affects the tides, although less noticeably), causing high and low tides. High tide, when the ocean’s fluctuating level is at its most elevated, can already cause problems in coastal towns. It can cause backflow in rivers that empty into the ocean, for example—just check out the daily tide forecast for New York City.

A couple of times each month, high tides are made even higher by the combined factors from Earth, the sun, and the moon. These are called spring tides, and they also mean lower low tides—more extremes in both directions. But spring tides are just one way the high tide varies over time, NASA explains.

Let’s return to that moon wobble. The moon suppresses tides on Earth for half of the 18.6-year cycle, meaning high tides are lower than normal, and low tides are higher than normal. But during the other half of the time, the tides are amplified. We’re in the latter period of the moon’s cycle at the moment, but the sea level hasn’t risen enough yet from climate change for the effect to be compounded—yet.

Here’s an extremely professional illustration of how that effect “stacks” with the overall sea level during high tides:

Photo credit: Caroline Delbert
Photo credit: Caroline Delbert

 

The next time we’re on the amplified side of this moon cycle, however, the combined higher sea levels and rising tides will cause a record number of nuisance floods along all of the mainland coastlines in the U.S., as well as in Hawaii and Guam.

As an example, the new paper highlights St. Petersburg, Florida, which is in the relatively low-lying Tampa Bay area. The researchers forecast just six “minor flooding” days per year between 2023 and 2033—a number that jumps to 67 days per year between 2033 and 2043. For La Jolla, California, the number jumps from one to 49 days per year. For Honolulu, Hawaii, it leaps from two to 63 days per year.

Photo credit: NASA
Photo credit: NASA

 

By 2030, the sea level will have risen by an estimated minimum of 1.4 inches, according to the Royal Society, the U.K.’s national academy of sciences. By 2039, that number will be more like 2.7 inches minimum. That, combined with the wobble effect, could leave beach communities at odds with nature, necessitating some serious infrastructure changes. Let’s hope stakeholders will take this new report seriously.

Western wildfire smoke creates fiery sunrise 2,000 miles away in New York City

Western wildfire smoke creates fiery sunrise 2,000 miles away in New York City

By Jeremy Lewan and Kathryn Prociv     July 20, 2021

 

Wildfires rage across 13 states as smoke swirls across the country creating hazy skies along the Eastern Seaboard from Toronto to Washington, D.C.
Hazy Sunrise Above the CN Tower in Toronto, Canada

The sun rises above the CN Tower through a thick haze caused by smoke from forest fires burning in western Canada moving through the upper atmosphere July 19, 2021, in Toronto.Gary Hershorn / Getty Images

After baking in weeks of searing heat, the West is erupting in fierce wildfires so strong the smoke was visible Tuesday on the East Coast in cities such as New York and Washington, D.C.

Air quality alerts were issued for New York City on Tuesday, and the National Weather Service urged sensitive groups to remain indoors.

More than 75 wildfires have already scorched more than 1 million acres in 13 states. On Tuesday, 3 million people remained under red flag warnings blanketing eight states across the Northwest and the northern Plains, including the area of the Bootleg Fire in Oregon, currently the largest fire this year.

Now classified as a megafire,or a fire burning more than 100,000 acres, the Bootleg Fire has blazed over 350,000 acres, which is about half the size of Rhode Island, and was only 30 percent contained as of Tuesday.

Conditions surrounding the area have exhibited extreme fire behavior, and the massive inferno has been so powerful that it created its own weather, generating dangerous columns of lightning-charged smoke and ash, called pyrocumulus or pyrocumulonimbus clouds, reaching the stratosphere. These can reach more than 40,000 feet into the atmosphere – the altitude at which commercial airplanes fly.

The Beckwourth Complex Fire, raging in Northern California, has topped 100,000 acres burned, also earning the megafire title. With more than 1,000 firefighters working, the fire was nearly 90 percent contained Tuesday.

Pacific Gas and Electric, California’s largest utility, may be responsible for another blaze licking across Northern California. On Sunday, a spokesperson admitted that blown fuses on one of its utility poles may have sparked the over the Dixie Fire, which is 30,000 acres and growing. This comes after PG&E has taken responsibility for the devastating 2018 Camp Fire and the 2019 Kincade Fire that burned more than 100 square miles of Sonoma County.

According to an update Monday from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or CAL FIRE, compared to this same time last year, there are over 900 more fires and 165,000 additional acres burned. For context, 2020 was the worst Western fire season in history.

The situation has become so dire that the National Interagency Fire Center has upgraded the national preparedness level to the highest category, Level 5, signifying that at least 80 percent of wildland firefighters are currently responding to fires.

Wildfire growth and spread are expected to intensify through the week as yet another major heat wave roasted the high Plains and the Rocky Mountains, peaking Monday. Triple-digit temperatures, combined with humidity as low as 10 percent and wind gusts up to 40 mph, will produce ideal wildfire conditions. An additional major concern is the dry thunderstorms expected to flare along the interior Northwest, producing abundant lightning that could easily spark sun-baked vegetation.

Climate scientists are certain that temperatures this extreme would have been “virtually impossible without climate change.

Tomato plants talk to themselves when approached by predators, study finds

Tomato plants talk to themselves when approached by predators, study finds

Hydrogen peroxide, the same chemical in hair dye, is one compound which increased in concentration after the electrical signals were triggered, according to researchers - Moment RF/Getty Images
Hydrogen peroxide, the same chemical in hair dye, is one compound which increased in concentration after the electrical signals were triggered, according to researchers – Moment RF/Getty Images

 

The Very Hungry Caterpillar ate an apple, pears, plums, strawberries and oranges, but never a tomato.

Had it tried, then the unsuspecting insect would have triggered an innate defensive mechanism of the fruit, which would make it taste worse – according to a study.

Researchers, led by a team from Federal University of Pelotas in Brazil, have witnessed and described this clever mechanism for the first time.

They found that a tomato fruit has the inherent ability to sense a nearby insect and produce a cascade of electrical signals.

These warning impulses are sent to the main plant from the fruit and allow other parts of the plant to set up their own defenses.

One of the botanical weapons it has at its disposal is the production of distasteful chemicals, which deliberately make the fruit less pleasant to fend off a hungry animal.

Hydrogen peroxide, the same chemical in bleach and hair dye, is one compound which increased in concentration after the electrical signals were triggered.

Preparing for a caterpillar attack

The finding helps revolutionize how we think of plants and their ability to communicate, the researchers say.

It has long been known that plants make and release chemicals to send messages, but usually it is from the plant to the fruit via the sap, not the other way round.

“Since fruits are part of the plant, made of the same tissues of the leaves and stems, why couldn’t they communicate with the plant, informing it about what they are experiencing, just like regular leaves do?” says Dr Gabriela Niemeyer Reissig, one of the report’s authors.

“What we found is that fruits can share important information such as caterpillar attacks – which is a serious issue for a plant – with the rest of the plant, and that can probably prepare other parts of the plant for the same attack.”

The researchers made the discovery by putting tomato plants in a Faraday cage with electrodes at the ends of each branch. This allowed them to measure the electrical impulses made by various parts of the plant, and where they were sent.

When caterpillars were introduced to the arena, the electrical signals changed drastically and so too did the chemicals produced by the plant.

The researchers now hope to see if other plants and fruits also have this ability.

The findings are published in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems.

With Disasters Mounting By The Day, The U.S. May Finally Enact Real Climate Policy

With Disasters Mounting By The Day, The U.S. May Finally Enact Real Climate Policy

Detroit residents observe a stretch of I-94 under several feet of water after rains flooded parts of Metro Detroit last month. (Photo: SOPA Images via Getty Images)
Detroit residents observe a stretch of I-94 under several feet of water after rains flooded parts of Metro Detroit last month. (Photo: SOPA Images via Getty Images)

 

It’s the summer of cascading disasters in the United States: Downpours have made rivers of major metropoles’ transit lines, a coastal condo collapsed, flames have engulfed vast swaths of land, and triple-digit heat has roasted typically temperate regions. The catastrophes have brought a mounting death toll and incalculable trauma.

But, for the first time in over a decade, the U.S. government may actually do something about the emissions destabilizing the climate.

This week, the Biden administration and its allies in Congress announced plans to pack the federal budget with resources and rules that could jolt a country long paralyzed by corporate obstruction and science denial into finally confronting an unprecedented crisis.

Democrats plan to use their slim majorities in Congress to pass a $3.5 trillion spending package that includes mandates to cut 80% of planet-heating pollution from the electricity sector by 2030, fund a new green jobs corps, and make it easier for drivers to swap gas guzzlers for electric vehicles.

Whether enough funding will make it into the final budget to make the programs significant remains unclear. By tacking the proposals to the budget process, which requires only 51 votes to become law, Democrats can circumvent the 60-vote threshold for passing traditional legislation that grants Republicans filibuster power.

But doing so gives Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), widely considered the most conservative Democrat in the caucus, kingmaker status, and already he’s signaled his opposition to anything that disadvantages fossil fuels.

There’s pull on the other end of Democrats’ ideological spectrum, too, as 16 senators, including Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), have vowed to vote against any budget that excludes climate provisions. But, as Mother Jones reported, those in the “No Climate, No Deal” contingent have yet to settle on any uniform demands about what kinds of policy they want to see in the budget.

“We cannot address a small sliver of our carbon pollution and call it a victory. We have to tackle this problem at scale,” Leah Stokes, an associate professor of political science at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and author of ”Short Circuiting Policy,” wrote in The Atlantic this week. “The last chance we had for a federal climate bill was 12 years ago. I’m afraid that Congress will again fail to pass climate legislation that invests at the necessary level. I’m worried that we’ll keep burning time we no longer have.”

In this handout provided by the USDA Forest Service, the Bootleg Fire burns on July 12 in Bly, Oregon. The Bootleg Fire has spread over 212,377 acres, making it the largest among the dozens of blazes fueled by record temperatures and drought in the western United States. (Photo: Handout via Getty Images)
In this handout provided by the USDA Forest Service, the Bootleg Fire burns on July 12 in Bly, Oregon. The Bootleg Fire has spread over 212,377 acres, making it the largest among the dozens of blazes fueled by record temperatures and drought in the western United States. (Photo: Handout via Getty Images)

 

While negotiators hash out the budget, other lawmakers are proposing standalone legislation that could ultimately appear in the final funding bill.

  • The Senate Energy Committee approved Manchin’s bill directing $95 billion to carbon capture and storage technology in fossil fuel plants on Wednesday.
  • On Thursday, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.H.) unveiled a bill to provide Americans with rebates to buy efficient new appliances aimed at slashing the 37% of U.S. emissions that stem from household energy use.
  • And on Friday, Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) joined two Republicans to introduce legislation to give grants to financially imperiled nuclear power plants in hopes of maintaining the supply of the country’s biggest source of carbon-free electricity.

Progressives in the House of Representatives, meanwhile, are pitching their own vision for how to legislate on climate.

  • In March, lawmakers announced the THRIVE Act, a $10 trillion spending plan, their banner policy.
  • In April, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) put forward a plan to give $1 trillion in federal aid to cities, towns and tribes seeking to slash emissions in a bid to circumvent anti-climate mandates on the state level.
  • On Thursday, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) proposed what he called the “Green New Deal for public schools,” a $1.4 trillion package to fund major retrofits at schools, hire more teachers and help kids living in poverty.

The steeper price tags the left-leaning candidates are seeking may seem big. But the numbers are actually more in line with what economists on the left and right ― from the progressive Roosevelt Institute to George W. Bush-era Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson ― say is needed to rapidly scale down the U.S. output of planet-heating gases.

Yet President Joe Biden and his treasury chief, Janet Yellen, worry that borrowing more money to justify climate spending poses financial risks for the country, despite warnings from economists and forecasters that failing to invest enough now in decarbonization carries even bigger risks as warming worsens. Under those self-imposed restraints, the White House sought to offset all its infrastructure and climate spending with new taxes.

Facing ferocious blowback from industries and their allies in Congress, the federal policymakers could only come up with $2.4 trillion in direct revenue to offset the program and managed to muster another $1.1 trillion through accounting techniques with the budget.

And while the Biden administration has faced mounting protests from climate activists demanding more action to curb emissions, pleas for something as wonky as “more deficit spending” have yet to materialize or gain popularity.

The memorial site for the collapsed 12-story Champlain Towers South condo building on July 13, 2021, in Surfside, Florida. (Photo: Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images)
The memorial site for the collapsed 12-story Champlain Towers South condo building on July 13, 2021, in Surfside, Florida. (Photo: Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images)

 

Despite far stricter budget constraints due to its multinational euro currency, the European Union this week took some even more aggressive climate steps, proposing a dozen bills that would, among other things, ban diesel- and gas-powered cars by 2035 and levy new taxes on heating gas.

Expanding on those efforts could prove crucial ahead of November’s United Nations climate conference in Scotland. The world is already 1.1 degrees Celsius hotter than in pre-industrial times, and even if every country adheres to its pledged emissions cuts, the planet would still be on pace to warm by at least another 2 degrees this century. Changing that trajectory depends not only on rich nations cutting emissions, but on poorer countries doing the same, and in many cases forswearing the development of heavily polluting industries that helped North America and Europe grow so wealthy.

If the U.S. and European Union — home to the people most responsible for the accumulated carbon in the atmosphere today — can’t rapidly slash emissions, convincing the majority of humanity in Africa, Asia and Latin America to do the same will be a tough sell.

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Editorial: Drought highlights value of our water

Editorial: Drought highlights value of our water

 

Minnesota has always been blessed with an abundance of water, above ground and below.

But the drought shows how quickly something usually taken for granted can become a concern.

While the immediate Mankato area has been blessed with a few timely rains that have helped crops and lawns, the signs of this year’s precipitation shortage — 11 inches below normal — is visible. Rivers are extremely low and showing sandbars not seen in many years. Boaters at area lakes are finding public boat ramps more difficult or impossible to use because of falling lake levels.

Around much of the state, including the Twin Cities, restrictions on watering lawns are in effect or soon will be as concerns about falling well and aquifer levels increase.

The conditions show just how fast our life-giving water can be jeopardized. While not yet an emergency here, the searing droughts and growing water shortages in the western United States portend serious problems far into the future.

Already some water-thirsty states have proposed piping water from Minnesota’s aquifers or from the Great Lakes. Fortunately, those efforts have so far been thwarted as Minnesotans and neighboring states have refused to make our waters a commodity.

And while southern Minnesota continues to have a good underground water supply, much of central and northern Minnesota has seen too much demand, such as for irrigating potato fields.

Above ground, our lakes and rivers aren’t only falling but many are impaired. The MPCA lists 56% of lakes and rivers as impaired.

Whether the current drought pattern is contributed to or caused by climate change isn’t something anyone can answer. We’ve had severe droughts in Minnesota long ago and will again.

But what is certain is that climate change will make for more erratic weather, and demands on our water resources will continue to grow — be it from more droughts, local demand or from other states seeking new water sources.

Next time you turn on the garden hose or visit a lake or river, it’s worth considering the value of our rich resources.

Water is a public good that needs to be protected from pollutants and overuse.

How Bad Is the Bootleg Fire? It’s Generating Its Own Weather.

How Bad Is the Bootleg Fire? It’s Generating Its Own Weather.

A column of smoke rises from the Bootleg Fire near Bly, Ore., on July 7, 2021. (U.S. Forest Service via The New York Times)
A column of smoke rises from the Bootleg Fire near Bly, Ore., on July 7, 2021. (U.S. Forest Service via The New York Times)

 

A towering cloud of hot air, smoke and moisture that reached airliner heights and spawned lightning. Wind-driven fronts of flame that have stampeded across the landscape, often leapfrogging firebreaks. Even, possibly, a rare fire tornado.

The Bootleg Fire in southern Oregon, spurred by months of drought and last month’s blistering heat wave, is the largest wildfire so far this year in the United States, having already burned more than 340,000 acres, or 530 square miles, of forest and grasslands.

And at a time when climate change is causing wildfires to be larger and more intense, it’s also one of the most extreme, so big and hot that it’s affecting winds and otherwise disrupting the atmosphere.

“The fire is so large and generating so much energy and extreme heat that it’s changing the weather,” said Marcus Kauffman, a spokesperson for the state Forestry Department. “Normally the weather predicts what the fire will do. In this case, the fire is predicting what the weather will do.”

The Bootleg Fire has been burning for two weeks, and for most of that time it’s exhibited one or more forms of extreme fire behavior, leading to rapid changes in winds and other conditions that have caused flames to spread rapidly in the forest canopy, ignited whole stands of trees at once, and blown embers long distances, rapidly igniting spot fires elsewhere.

“It’s kind of an extreme, dangerous situation,” said Chuck Redman, a forecaster with the National Weather Service who has been at the fire command headquarters providing forecasts.

Fires so extreme that they generate their own weather confound firefighting efforts. The intensity and extreme heat can force wind to go around them, create clouds and sometimes even generate so-called fire tornadoes — swirling vortexes of heat, smoke and high wind.

The catastrophic Carr Fire near Redding, California, in July 2018 was one of those fires, burning through 130,000 acres, destroying more than 1,600 structures and leading to the deaths of at least eight people, some of which were attributed to a fire tornado with winds as high as 140 mph that was captured on video.

Many wildfires grow rapidly in size, and the Bootleg Fire is no exception. In the first few days it grew by a few square miles or less, but in more recent days it has grown by 80 square miles or more. And nearly every day the erratic conditions have forced some of the nearly 2,200 firefighting personnel to retreat to safer locations, further hindering efforts to bring it under control. More than 75 homes and other structures have burned.

On Thursday night along its northern edge, the fire jumped over a line that had been treated with chemical retardant, forcing firefighters to back off. It was just the latest example of the fire overrunning a firebreak.

“This fire is a real challenge, and we are looking at sustained battle for the foreseeable future,” said Joe Hessel, the incident commander for the forestry department.

And it’s likely to continue to be unpredictable.

“Fire behavior is a function of fuels, topography and weather,” said Craig B. Clements, director of the Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center at San Jose State University. “It changes generally day by day. Sometimes minute by minute.”

Redman said that nearly every day the fire had created tall updrafts of hot air, smoke and moisture called pyrocumulus clouds, some of them reaching up to 30,000 feet. One day, he said, they saw one of these clouds collapse, which can happen in early evening when the updraft stops.

“All that mass has to come back down,” he said, which forces air at the surface outward, creating strong, gusty winds in all directions that can spread a fire. “It’s not a good thing.”

Last Wednesday, though, conditions led to the creation of a larger, taller, cloud called a pyrocumulonimbus, which is similar to a thunderhead. It likely reached an altitude of about 45,000 feet, said Neil Lareau, who studies wildfire behavior at the University of Nevada, Reno.

Like a thunderhead, the huge cloud spawned lightning strikes, worrying firefighters because of their potential to start new fires. It may have also brought precipitation.

“Some of these events rain on themselves,” said John Bailey, a professor of forestry at Oregon State University.

Rain can be a good thing, by dampening some of the fuels and helping slow the fire. But by cooling the air closer to the surface, rain can also create dangerous downdrafts, Lareau said.

There have also been reports of fire whirls, small spinning vortices of air and flames that are common to many wildfires and are often inaccurately described as fire tornadoes. Fire whirls are small, perhaps a few dozen feet in diameter at their largest, and last for a few seconds to a few minutes.

But Lareau said there were some indications that the Bootleg Fire might have created an actual fire tornado, which can be several thousand feet in diameter, have wind speeds in excess of 65 mph, extend thousands of feet into the air and last much longer. “It looks like it’s been producing some pretty significant rotation,” he said.

Fire tornadoes occur as a plume of hot air rises within a fire, which draws more air from outside to replace it. Local topography and differences in wind direction, often caused by the fire itself, can impart a spin to this in-rushing air, and stretching of the air column can cause it to rotate faster, like a figure skater pulling her arms in to increase her spin.

Redman said the incident command had not received any reports of a fire tornado. “But it’s totally possible” for one to occur in a fire this big and intense, he said. “When we get these extreme events, it’s stuff we’ve got to watch for.”

Other kinds of extreme fire behavior are more common. But the duration of the extreme behavior in the Bootleg Fire has stunned some of those fighting it.

“It’s day after day of that extreme behavior and explosive growth,” Kauffman said. “And you can’t really fight fire under those conditions. It’s too dangerous.”

The root cause of most of the extreme behavior is the huge amount of heat the fire is pumping out.

The amount of heat is related to the dryness of the fuel — trees and other vegetation, both dead and alive. And the fuels in southern Oregon, as well as most of the West, are extremely dry, a result of the severe drought afflicting most of the region.

Clements likened it to a campfire. “You want the driest tinder and logs to get that fire going,” he said. “Same thing in a forest fire. That’s why we’ve been monitoring the drought.”

If vegetation is damp, some of the energy from burning is used to evaporate its moisture. If there is no moisture to evaporate, the fire burns hotter. “More heat is released,” he said. “The flames are bigger.”

Oregon was also hit in late June by an extreme heat wave, when record temperatures in some places were broken by as much as 9 degrees Fahrenheit. That dried out the vegetation even more. In southern Oregon, the fuels were as dry as they’d be at the end of summer in a more normal year.

“We’ve had a lot of fuel that was ready to burn,” Bailey said.

What would help end the extreme behavior, and eventually the fire itself, is a good, widespread rain. But that doesn’t appear to be in the offing.

“We’re not seeing any significant relief in the next week at least,” Redman said. “But I don’t think we can get any worse.”

© 2021 The New York Times Company

Sunny day flooding could get a lot worse in St. Petersburg, study shows

Sunny day flooding could get a lot worse in St. Petersburg, study shows

 

ST. PETERSBURG — Sunny day flooding could go from an occasional nuisance to a regular problem in the city, according to a new study. It projects that St. Petersburg might see inundation at high tide more than 60 times a year in the coming decades.

Sea level rise, periodic shifts in tides and weather patterns are to blame, researchers said.

“The reason we’re worrying about it now is this has been going on forever, but we never noticed it before,” said University of South Florida College of Marine Science Associate Dean Gary Mitchum, one of seven authors on the study. “Now the high tide increase every decade or two is superimposed on sea level rise, and the combination of the two is giving us vastly increased events.”

The area could reach what the report deems a tipping point in 2033. In the decade before then, the researchers suggest, St. Petersburg will see high-tide flooding about 6 days a year. In the decade after, that number could reach 67 days of tidal flooding in one year.

This type of inundation is not catastrophic, like the impact of storm surge from a tropical storm or hurricane. It is a persistent nuisance that already soaks streets and bubbles through drains in some Florida cities, most notoriously Miami and in the Keys.

Residents of flood-prone coastal neighborhoods, like St. Petersburg’s Shore Acres, may see several inches of water on roads, forcing them to re-route drives to work, school or home — even on days when it doesn’t rain. City infrastructure, like pipes and pavement, would be submerged more often in corrosive saltwater.

The dramatic rise in flooding stems in part from a roughly 18-year tidal cycle, determined by the alignment of the sun, earth and moon, Mitchum said. This predictable pattern, he said, leads to spikes and drops in the maximum height of tides. The cycle is about to see years of declining tides, which Mitchum said will offset or mask the effects of sea level rise.

In 2033, the cycle is expected to turn around. Heightened tides in conjunction with sea level rise could create a compound effect that Mitchum said will offer a glimpse of how flooding decades into the future may reshape the region because of rising seas alone.

The lead author of the study, Philip Thompson, director of the University of Hawaiʻi’s Sea Level Center, said St. Petersburg is especially affected by the tidal changes across decades because it generally has one high tide per day, compared to other regions that experience two.

Nuisance flooding is already a worry for local planners. Pinellas County is studying the prospect of future floods in a vulnerability assessment paid for using money dispersed after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Local engineers in some cities are installing valves to stop the sea from filling stormwater systems at high tide.

“It just leads to constant environmental degradation of systems — mechanical, electrical, infrastructure,” said Pinellas Sustainability and Resiliency Coordinator Hank Hodde. He recalled a meeting where he heard a resident of the Florida Keys ask local leaders to install a car wash for cleaning off vehicles exposed to saltwater flooding.

“It’s going to be here all the time,” Hodde said. “Like rain.”

A lot of research and writing has been dedicated to understanding nuisance flooding, said Jayantha Obeysekera, director of the Sea Level Solutions Center at Florida International University. But the latest analysis offers a window into how soon it could become a bigger problem. Obeysekera was not involved in writing the paper, though he knows the authors and his work was cited in the report.

The researchers used National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrative flooding standards and tidal gauge data as their foundation and an intermediate projection for how far seas could rise.

“If it happens once a year, maybe people can live with it,” Obeysekera said. But as flooding becomes more regular, he said, residents “expect the communities to come up with adaptation so they don’t have to basically walk on water 5, 10 times a year.”

Knowing more precisely when and where flooding will hit at high tide would allow public works departments to prepare. In the next phase of his research, Mitchum said he wants to find a way for scientists to make those nearer term forecasts possible.

The almost 70 nuisance floods a year projected in St. Petersburg would not be spaced out evenly across months, according to the study. The flooding might instead happen in clusters, Mitchum said, with peaks depending on the season.

Eventually nearly every high tide in certain bad months could bring flooding, he said. Water levels around St. Petersburg tend to be highest when the sea is warmer in summer and early fall.

Although sunny day flooding should stay infrequent in the near term, Thompson, of the University of Hawaiʻi, said it would be a mistake for governments to be complacent in the coming years. Building better drainage systems and modifying zoning around Tampa Bay are two ways he imagines officials could look to mitigate future damage.

King tides that cause flooding across the state should be a bellwether, he said. “Florida is already sort of the epicenter.”

This story was produced in partnership with the Florida Climate Reporting Network, a multi-newsroom initiative founded by the Miami Herald, the South Florida Sun Sentinel, The Palm Beach Post, the Orlando Sentinel, WLRN Public Media and the Tampa Bay Times.

‘It Is All Connected’: Extreme Weather in the Age of Climate Change

‘It Is All Connected’: Extreme Weather in the Age of Climate Change

 

 

The images from Germany are startling and horrifying: houses, shops and streets in the picturesque cities and villages along the Ahr and other rivers violently washed away by fast-moving floodwaters.

The flooding was caused by a storm that slowed to a crawl over parts of Europe on Wednesday, dumping as much as 6 inches of rain on the region near Cologne and Bonn before finally beginning to let up Friday. There was flooding in Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland, too, but the worst impacts were in Germany, where the official death toll passed 125 on Friday and was sure to climb.

The storm was a frightening example of an extreme weather event, with some places getting a month’s worth of rain in a day. But in an era of climate change, extreme weather events are becoming more common.

The question is, how much did climate change affect this specific storm and the resulting floods?

A complete answer will have to await analyses, almost certain to be undertaken given the magnitude of the disaster, that will seek to learn if climate change made this storm more likely, and if so, by how much.

But for many scientists the trend is clear. “The answer is yes — all major weather these days is being affected by the changes in climate,” said Donald J. Wuebbles, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois.

Already studies have shown an increase in extreme downpours as the world warms, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations-backed group that reports on the science and impacts of global warming, has said that the frequency of these events will increase as temperatures continue to rise.

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a researcher with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said that in studies of extreme rain events in the Netherlands, “the observed increase is stronger than we expected.”

Van Oldenborgh is one of the primary scientists with World Weather Attribution, a loose-knit group that quickly analyzes specific extreme weather events with regard to any climate-change impact. He said the group, which just finished a rapid analysis of the heat wave that struck the Pacific Northwest in late June, was discussing whether they would study the German floods.

One reason for stronger downpours has to do with basic physics: warmer air holds more moisture, making it more likely that a specific storm will produce more precipitation. The world has warmed by a little more than 1 degree Celsius (about 2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 19th century, when societies began pumping huge amounts of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere.

For every 1 Celsius degree of warming, air can hold 7% more moisture. As a result, said Hayley Fowler, a professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University in England, “These kinds of storm events will increase in intensity.”

And although it is still a subject of debate, there are studies that suggest rapid warming in the Arctic is affecting the jet stream, by reducing the temperature difference between northern and southern parts of the Northern Hemisphere. One effect in summer and fall, Fowler said, is that the high-altitude, globe-circling air current is weakening and slowing down.

“That means the storms have to move more slowly,” Fowler said. The storm that caused the recent flooding was practically stationary, she noted. The combination of more moisture and a stalled storm system can lead to extra-heavy rains over a given area.

Kai Kornhuber, a climate scientist with the Earth Institute of Columbia University, said that his and his colleagues’ research, and papers from other scientists, drew similar conclusions about slowing weather systems. “They all point in the same direction — that the summertime mid-latitude circulation, the jet stream, is slowing down and constitutes a more persistent weather pattern” that means extreme events like heat waves and pounding rains are likely to go on and on.

Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, has studied the effects of a different summertime jet stream phenomenon known as “wave resonance” in locking weather systems in place.

Climate change, he said, is making the stalling weather events more frequent. But he said it was premature to say that the European disaster was caused by wave resonance.

Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist with the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts, said that while dawdling weather systems can have many causes, they generally don’t occur in a vacuum.

The European storm is “part of this bigger picture of extremes we’ve been seeing all along the Northern Hemisphere this summer,” she said, include the heat in the American West and Pacific Northwest, intense rainfall and cooler temperatures in the Midwest, and heat waves in Scandinavia and Siberia.

“It’s never in isolation when it comes to an odd configuration of the jet stream,” Francis said. “One extreme in one place is always accompanied by extremes of different types.”

“It is all connected, and it’s all the same story, really,” she added.

When it comes to floods, however, there are other factors that can come into play and complicate any analysis of the influence of climate change.

For one thing, local topography has to be taken into account, as that can affect rainfall patterns and how much runoff gets into which rivers.

Human impacts can complicate an analysis even further. Development near rivers, for instance, often replaces open land, which can absorb rain, with buildings, streets and parking lots that increase the amount of water that drains into rivers. Infrastructure built to cope with heavy runoff and rising rivers may be under-designed and inadequate.

And meteorological conditions can sometimes lead to different conclusions.

A 2016 study by World Weather Attribution of flooding in France and Germany in May of that year found that climate change affected the French flooding, which was caused by three days of rain. But the situation in Germany was different; the flooding was caused by a one-day storm. The computer simulations did not find that the likelihood of shorter storms in that area had increased in a changing climate.

While some development can make flooding worse, other projects can reduce flooding. That appears to have been the case in the Netherlands, which was not as severely affected by the storm.

After several major floods on the Meuse River in the 1990s, the Dutch government began a program called Room for the River to reduce flooding, said Nathalie Asselman, who advises the government and other clients on flood risk.

The work involved lowering and widening river beds, lowering flood plains and excavating side channels. “The aim of these measures is to lower flood levels,” she said.

While a dike near the Meuse in southern Netherlands suffered a breach that caused some flooding until it was repaired on Friday, the measures appear to have worked.

Flood levels on the Meuse were about a foot lower than would have been the case without them, Asselman said. That meant smaller tributaries backed up less where they met the Meuse, producing less flooding.

“If we wouldn’t have implemented these measures, then the situation would have been worse,” she said. “Both on the main river and the tributaries.”

Scorched, Parched and Now Uninsurable: Climate Change Hits Wine Country

Scorched, Parched and Now Uninsurable: Climate Change Hits Wine Country

Stuart Smith, owner of Smith Madrone Vineyards & Winery, inspected burned tree stumps near his vineyards, which were charred in last year’s wildfires, in St. Helena, Calif. (Mike Kai Chen for The New York Times)

 

ST. HELENA, Calif. — Last September, a wildfire tore through one of Dario Sattui’s Napa Valley wineries, destroying millions of dollars in property and equipment, along with 9,000 cases of wine.

November brought a second disaster: Sattui realized the precious crop of cabernet grapes that survived the fire had been ruined by the smoke. There would be no 2020 vintage.

A freakishly dry winter led to a third calamity: By spring, the reservoir at another of Sattui’s vineyards was all but empty, meaning little water to irrigate the new crop.

Finally, in March, came a fourth blow: Sattui’s insurers said they would no longer cover the winery that had burned down. Neither would any other company. In the patois of insurance, the winery will go bare into this year’s burning season, which experts predict to be especially fierce.

“We got hit every which way we could,” Sattui said. “We can’t keep going like this.”

In Napa Valley, the lush heartland of America’s high-end wine industry, climate change is spelling calamityNot outwardly: On the main road running through the small town of St. Helena, California, tourists still stream into wineries with exquisitely appointed tasting rooms. At the Goose & Gander, where the lamb chops are $63, the line for a table still tumbles out onto the sidewalk.

But drive off the main road, and the vineyards that made this valley famous — where the mix of soil, temperature patterns and rainfall used to be just right — are now surrounded by burned-out landscapes, dwindling water supplies and increasingly nervous winemakers bracing for things to get worse.

Desperation has pushed some growers to spray sunscreen on grapes, to try to prevent roasting, while others are irrigating with treated wastewater from toilets and sinks because reservoirs are dry.

Their fate matters even for those who cannot tell a merlot from a malbec. Napa boasts some of the country’s most expensive farmland, selling for as much as $1 million per acre; a ton of grapes fetches two to four times as much as anywhere else in California. If there is any nook of U.S. agriculture with both the means and incentive to outwit climate change, it is here.

But so far, the experience of winemakers here demonstrates the limits of adapting to a warming planet.

If the heat and drought trends worsen, “we’re probably out of business,” said Cyril Chappellet, president of Chappellet Winery, which has been operating for more than a half-century. “All of us are out business.”

‘I Don’t Like the Way the Reds Are Tasting’

Stu Smith’s winery is at the end of a two-lane road that winds up the side of Spring Mountain, west of St. Helena. The drive requires some concentration: The 2020 Glass fire incinerated the wooden posts that held up the guardrails, which now lie like discarded ribbons at the edge of the cliff.

In 1971, after graduating from the University of California, Berkeley, Smith bought 165 acres of land here. He named his winery Smith Madrone, after the orange-red hardwoods with waxy leaves that surround the vineyards he planted. For almost three decades, those vineyards — 14 acres of cabernet, 7 acres each of chardonnay and riesling, plus a smattering of cabernet franc, merlot and petit verdot — were untouched by wildfires.

Then, in 2008, smoke from nearby fires reached his grapes for the first time. The harvest went on as usual. Months later, after the wine had aged but before it was bottled, Smith’s brother, Charlie, noticed something was wrong. “He said, ‘I just don’t like the way the reds are tasting,’” Stu Smith said.

At first, Smith resisted the idea anything was amiss, but he eventually brought the wine to a laboratory in Sonoma County, which determined that smoke had penetrated the skin of the grapes to affect the taste.

What winemakers came to call “smoke taint” now menaces Napa’s wine industry.

“The problem with the fires is that it doesn’t have be anywhere near us,” Smith said. Smoke from distant fires can waft long distances, and there is no way a grower can prevent it.

Smoke is a threat primarily to reds, whose skins provide the wine’s color. (The skins of white grapes, by contrast, are discarded, and with them the smoke residue.) Reds must also stay on the vine longer, often into October, leaving them more exposed to fires that usually peak in early fall.

Vintners could switch from red grapes to white, but that solution collides with the demands of the market. White grapes from Napa typically sell for around $2,750 per ton, on average. Reds, by contrast, fetch an average of about $5,000 per ton in the valley, and more for cabernet sauvignon. In Napa, there is a saying: Cabernet is king.

The damage in 2008 turned out to be a precursor of far worse to come. Haze from the Glass fire filled the valley; so many wine growers sought to test their grapes for smoke taint that the turnaround time at the nearest laboratory, once three days, became two months.

The losses have been stunning. In 2019, growers in the county sold $829 million worth of red grapes. In 2020, that figure plummeted to $384 million.

Among the casualties were Smith, whose entire crop was affected. Now the most visible legacy of the fire is the trees: The flames scorched not just the madrones that gave Smith’s winery its name but also the Douglas firs, the tan oaks and the bay trees.

Trees burned by wildfires do not die immediately; some linger for years. One afternoon in June, Smith surveyed the damage to his forest, stopping at a madrone he especially liked but whose odds were not good. “It’s dead,” Smith said. “It just doesn’t know it yet.”

Sunscreen for Grapes

Across the valley, Aaron Whitlatch, head of winemaking at Green & Red Vineyards, climbed into a dust-colored jeep for a trip up the mountain to demonstrate what heat does to grapes.

After navigating steep switchbacks, Whitlatch reached a row of vines growing petite sirah grapes that were coated with a thin layer of white.

The week before, temperatures had topped 100 degrees, and staff sprayed the vines with sunscreen.

“Keeps them from burning,” Whitlatch said.

The strategy had not worked perfectly. He pointed to a bunch of grapes at the very top of the peak exposed to sun during the hottest hours of the day. Some of the fruit had turned black and shrunken — becoming, effectively, absurdly high-cost raisins.

“The temperature of this cluster probably reached 120,” Whitlatch said. “We got torched.”

As the days get hotter and the sun more dangerous in Napa, wine growers are trying to adjust. A more expensive option than sunscreen is to cover the vines with shade cloth, Whitlatch said. Another tactic, even more costly, is to replant rows of vines so they are parallel to the sun in the warmest part of the day, catching less of its heat.

At 43, Whitlatch is a veteran of the wine fires. In 2017, he was an assistant winemaker at Mayacamas Vineyards, another Napa winery, when it was burned by a series of wildfires. This is his first season at Green & Red, which lost its entire crop of reds to smoke from the Glass fire.

After that fire, the winery’s insurer wrote to the owners, Raymond Hannigan and Tobin Heminway, listing the changes needed to reduce its fire risk, including updating circuit breaker panels and adding fire extinguishers. “We spent thousands and thousands of dollars upgrading the property,” Hannigan said.

A month later, Philadelphia Insurance Cos. sent the couple another letter, canceling their insurance anyway. The explanation was brief: “Ineligible risk — wildfire exposure does not meet current underwriting guidelines.” The company did not respond to a request for comment.

Heminway and Hannigan have been unable to find coverage from any other carrier. The California Legislature is considering a bill that would allow wineries to get insurance through a state-run high-risk pool.

But even if that passes, Hannigan said, “it’s not going to help us during this harvest season.”

Half the Insurance, Five Times the Cost

Just south of Green & Red, Chappellet stood amid the bustle of wine being bottled and trucks unloading. Chappellet Winery is the picture of commercial-scale efficiency, producing some 70,000 cases of wine a year. The main building, which his parents built after buying the property in 1967, resembles a cathedral; gargantuan wooden beams soar upward, sheltering row after row of oak barrels aging a fortune’s worth of cabernet.

After the Glass fire, Chappellet is one of the lucky ones; he still has insurance. It just costs five times as much as it did last year.

His winery now pays more than $1 million a year, up from $200,000 before the fire. At the same time, his insurers cut by half the amount of coverage they were willing to provide.

“It’s insane,” Chappellet said. “It’s not something that we can withstand for the long term.”

There are other problems. Chappellet pointed to his vineyards, where workers were cutting grapes from the vines — not because they were ready to harvest but because there was not enough water to keep them growing. He estimated it would reduce his crop this year by one-third.

“We don’t have the luxury of giving them the normal amount that it would take them to be really healthy,” Chappellet said.

To demonstrate why, he drove up a dirt road, stopping at what used to be the pair of reservoirs that fed his vineyards. The first was one-third full; the other, just above it, had become a barren pit. A pipe that once pumped out water instead lay on the dusty lake bed.

This is the disaster,” Chappellet said.

Water by the Truckload

When spring came this year, and the reservoir on Sattui’s vineyard was empty, his colleague Tom Davies, president of V. Sattui Winery, crafted a backup plan. Davies found Joe Brown.

Eight times a day, Brown pulls into a loading dock at the city of Napa’s sanitation department, fills a tanker truck with 3,500 gallons of treated wastewater and drives 10 miles to the vineyard, then turns around and does it again.

The water, which comes from household toilets and drains and is sifted, filtered and disinfected, is a bargain at $6.76 a truckload. The problem is transportation: Each load costs Davies about $140, which he guesses will add $60,000 or more to the cost of running the vineyard this season.

And that is assuming Napa officials keep selling wastewater, which in theory could be made potable. As the drought worsens, the city may decide its residents need it more. “We’re nervous that at some point, Napa sanitation says, ‘No more water,’” Davies said.

After driving past the empty reservoir, Davies stopped at a hilltop overlooking the vineyard.

If Napa can go another year or two without major wildfires, Davies thinks insurers will return. Harder to solve are the smoke taint and water shortages.

“It’s still kind of early on to talk about the demise of our industry,” Davies said, looking out across the valley. “But it’s certainly a concern.”

© 2021 The New York Times Company

Conservation isn’t enough. Booming Fort Worth area needs new lake as a water source

Conservation isn’t enough. Booming Fort Worth area needs new lake as a water source

 

No one builds a lake on a lark.

It takes decades of discussion and planning to designate a reservoir site, conduct extensive environmental reviews and acquire permits and property. Along the way, stakeholders at every level have ample opportunity to weigh in.

That process has been playing out for nearly 25 years when it comes to the proposed Marvin Nichols Reservoir. It’s a key part of the future for much of the Dallas-Fort Worth region, including Tarrant County. So, its inclusion in the latest version of the state’s master water-supply and regulation plan is good news.

Landowners in northeast Texas, the proposed site of the lake, and some environmentalists are reinforcing their opposition to the new reservoir, which still wouldn’t be built yet for decades. There’s no question its creation will be a hardship for many, and property rights deserve the utmost respect and defense.

But it’s in the best interest of the region and state to build Marvin Nichols, and it’s not a close call. The process must move forward.

Dan Buhman, general manager of the Tarrant Regional Water District, which ensures a safe and reliable water supply for the area, said that the agency always seeks first to maximize conservation, reuse water and seek other efficiencies. But the need for a new source in the coming decades is inevitable.

“We have to meet the demands of a growing region,” Buhman said. “Marvin Nichols has got to be part of our portfolio of our possible water supplies. But it’s not our only option. The first priority is always efficiency.”

Dallas-Fort Worth remains primed for huge population growth for decades. That’s a good thing: It means vitality and more opportunity for all. But growth brings challenges, including the need to secure resources and infrastructure for households and businesses alike.

There was a time when conservation efforts were insufficient. But the entire area has made tremendous strides. Per-capita water usage rates in area cities has dropped over the years. Fort Worth and Arlington receive some of the highest scores on conservation from Texas Living Waters, a coalition of advocacy groups seeking to protect freshwater sources.

Buhman said the water district’s service area conserves 20 billion gallons annually, a testament to better technology, more efficient use of resources and a constant reinforcing of the message that saving water is important.

And such efforts should continue. Buhman noted that many new arrivals to Tarrant County come from places where water is abundant, so ongoing education about the challenges of ensuring our water supply is important.

“We have to do everything we can do to use the resources we have responsibly,” said Buhman, who recently ascended to the district’s top job. But “based on all our studies, conservation is insufficient to deal with our growth.”

Even with robust conservation and reuse, the North Texas region (as defined for state water planning purposes) will see its demand increase 67 percent over the coming decades, the Texas plan notes. Where will it come from? The Tarrant district once tried to get more from across the Red River, but it lost a dispute with Oklahoma at the Supreme Court. We simply must have other options to supply and store water. Buhman noted that one of the predicted effects of climate change for the region is fewer rainfall events that are more intense. Capturing that water when it comes is important.

That’s where Marvin Nichols comes in. The state doesn’t build reservoirs on a whim. A new one hasn’t opened in decades, and the last lake built in the DFW area, Joe Pool, is more than three decades old.

Opponents to Marvin Nichols seem reinvigorated by the North Texas region’s push to include the reservoir in the long-term plan. It’s uniting property owners, environmentalists and timber interests. Federal review will take many more years, and they’ll have ample opportunity to weigh in.

No one should pretend that building Marvin Nichols comes without cost. But tradeoffs are necessary. For a glimpse of what can happen when the right decisions aren’t made decades in advance, look no further than California, where a failure of planning and worsening drought have much of the state on the precipice of a water crisis.

Elected and appointed officials alike must stay well ahead of the curve. That kind of prudence, temperament and vision necessary are a reason to pay close attention when offices such as the water district’s board of directors are on the ballot.

After all, as Buhman says, no one wants the day to come when we turn the tap and wonder what, if anything, will come out.