John Hanno – Page 265 – The Tarbabys Blog

Polio in US, UK and Israel reveals rare risk of oral vaccine

Associated Press

Polio in US, UK and Israel reveals rare risk of oral vaccine

Maria Cheng – August 21, 2022

FILE - An Afghan health worker uses an oral polio vaccine on a child as part of a campaign to eliminate polio, on the outskirts of Kabul, Afghanistan, April 18, 2017. For years, global health officials have used billions of drops of an oral vaccine in a remarkably effective campaign aimed at wiping out polio in its last remaining strongholds — typically, poor, politically unstable corners of the world. Now, in a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there. The source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul, File) — An Afghan health worker uses an oral polio vaccine on a child as part of a campaign to eliminate polio, on the outskirts of Kabul, Afghanistan, April 18, 2017. For years, global health officials have used billions of drops of an oral vaccine in a remarkably effective campaign aimed at wiping out polio in its last remaining strongholds — typically, poor, politically unstable corners of the world. Now, in a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there. The source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul, File)

FILE - An auto rickshaw with a poster advertising an oral polio campaign, drives through a market in Peshawar, Pakistan in this 2020 photo. In a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there. The source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself. For years, global health officials have used an oral vaccine in an attempt to wipe out polio from its last remaining strongholds in countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad, File) — An auto rickshaw with a poster advertising an oral polio campaign, drives through a market in Peshawar, Pakistan in this 2020 photo. In a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there. The source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself. For years, global health officials have used an oral vaccine in an attempt to wipe out polio from its last remaining strongholds in countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad, File)

FILE - An Afghan polio victim makes her way in a wheelchair in the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) physical rehabilitation center in Kabul, Afghanistan, May 16, 2022. In a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there. The source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself. For years, global health officials have used an oral vaccine in an attempt to wipe out polio from its last remaining strongholds in countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi, File) — An Afghan polio victim makes her way in a wheelchair in the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) physical rehabilitation center in Kabul, Afghanistan, May 16, 2022. In a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there. The source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself. For years, global health officials have used an oral vaccine in an attempt to wipe out polio from its last remaining strongholds in countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi, File)

FILE - A bloodied polio vaccine cooler is left on the ground after women working to administer the anti-polio vaccine were killed by gunmen in the city of Jalalabad east of Kabul, Afghanistan, March 30, 2021. Aidan O'Leary, director of the World Health Organization's polio department, described the recent discovery of polio spreading in London and New York as "a major surprise," saying that officials have been focused on eradicating the disease in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where health workers have been killed for immunizing children and where conflict has made access to some areas impossible. (AP Photo, File) — A bloodied polio vaccine cooler is left on the ground after women working to administer the anti-polio vaccine were killed by gunmen in the city of Jalalabad east of Kabul, Afghanistan, March 30, 2021. Aidan O’Leary, director of the World Health Organization’s polio department, described the recent discovery of polio spreading in London and New York as “a major surprise,” saying that officials have been focused on eradicating the disease in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where health workers have been killed for immunizing children and where conflict has made access to some areas impossible. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - A police officer escorts health workers arriving to administer polio vaccine in a slum area of Peshawar, Pakistan, Jan. 24, 2022. Aidan O'Leary, director of the World Health Organization's polio department, described the recent discovery of polio spreading in London and New York as "a major surprise," saying that officials have been focused on eradicating the disease in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where health workers have been killed for immunizing children and where conflict has made access to some areas impossible. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad, File) — A police officer escorts health workers arriving to administer polio vaccine in a slum area of Peshawar, Pakistan, Jan. 24, 2022. Aidan O’Leary, director of the World Health Organization’s polio department, described the recent discovery of polio spreading in London and New York as “a major surprise,” saying that officials have been focused on eradicating the disease in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where health workers have been killed for immunizing children and where conflict has made access to some areas impossible. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad, File)

FILE - Then U.S. President Bill Clinton and First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton watch as nurse Dorothy Sellers administers an oral polio vaccine to 20-month-old Danielle Bailey at an Arlington County health clinic in Arlington, Va., Feb. 13, 1993. The oral vaccine is credited with dramatically reducing the number of children paralyzed by polio. For years, global health officials have used an oral vaccine in an attempt to wipe out polio from its last remaining strongholds in countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria. In recent weeks, scientists have found evidence of polio spread within Israel, the U.S. and Britain and genetic analyses show the viruses are not only connected, but that the cases were triggered by viruses linked to the oral vaccine. (AP Photo/Greg Gibson, File) — Then U.S. President Bill Clinton and First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton watch as nurse Dorothy Sellers administers an oral polio vaccine to 20-month-old Danielle Bailey at an Arlington County health clinic in Arlington, Va., Feb. 13, 1993. The oral vaccine is credited with dramatically reducing the number of children paralyzed by polio. For years, global health officials have used an oral vaccine in an attempt to wipe out polio from its last remaining strongholds in countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria. In recent weeks, scientists have found evidence of polio spread within Israel, the U.S. and Britain and genetic analyses show the viruses are not only connected, but that the cases were triggered by viruses linked to the oral vaccine. (AP Photo/Greg Gibson, File)

FILE - A health worker gives an oral polio vaccine to a girl on a street in Lahore, Pakistan, June 27, 2022. For years, global health officials have used billions of drops of an oral vaccine in a remarkably effective campaign aimed at wiping out polio in its last remaining strongholds — typically, poor, politically unstable corners of the world. Now, in a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there. The source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary, File) — A health worker gives an oral polio vaccine to a girl on a street in Lahore, Pakistan, June 27, 2022. For years, global health officials have used billions of drops of an oral vaccine in a remarkably effective campaign aimed at wiping out polio in its last remaining strongholds — typically, poor, politically unstable corners of the world. Now, in a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there. The source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary, File)

LONDON (AP) — For years, global health officials have used billions of drops of an oral vaccine in a remarkably effective campaign aimed at wiping out polio in its last remaining strongholds — typically, poor, politically unstable corners of the world.

Now, in a surprising twist in the decades-long effort to eradicate the virus, authorities in Jerusalem, New York and London have discovered evidence that polio is spreading there.

The original source of the virus? The oral vaccine itself.

Scientists have long known about this extremely rare phenomenon. That is why some countries have switched to other polio vaccines. But these incidental infections from the oral formula are becoming more glaring as the world inches closer to eradication of the disease and the number of polio cases caused by the wild, or naturally circulating, virus plummets.

Since 2017, there have been 396 cases of polio caused by the wild virus, versus more than 2,600 linked to the oral vaccine, according to figures from the World Health Organization and its partners.

“We are basically replacing the wild virus with the virus in the vaccine, which is now leading to new outbreaks,” said Scott Barrett, a Columbia University professor who has studied polio eradication. “I would assume that countries like the U.K. and the U.S. will be able to stop transmission quite quickly, but we also thought that about monkeypox.”

The latest incidents represent the first time in several years that vaccine-connected polio virus has turned up in rich countries.

Earlier this year, officials in Israel detected polio in an unvaccinated 3-year-old, who suffered paralysis. Several other children, nearly all of them unvaccinated, were found to have the virus but no symptoms.

In June, British authorities reported finding evidence in sewage that the virus was spreading, though no infections in people were identified. Last week, the government said all children in London ages 1 to 9 would be offered a booster shot.

In the U.S., an unvaccinated young adult suffered paralysis in his legs after being infected with polio, New York officials revealed last month. The virus has also shown up in New York sewers, suggesting it is spreading. But officials said they are not planning a booster campaign because they believe the state’s high vaccination rate should offer enough protection.

Genetic analyses showed that the viruses in the three countries were all “vaccine-derived,” meaning that they were mutated versions of a virus that originated in the oral vaccine.

The oral vaccine at issue has been used since 1988 because it is cheap, easy to administer — two drops are put directly into children’s mouths — and better at protecting entire populations where polio is spreading. It contains a weakened form of the live virus.

But it can also cause polio in about two to four children per 2 million doses. (Four doses are required to be fully immunized.) In extremely rare cases, the weakened virus can also sometimes mutate into a more dangerous form and spark outbreaks, especially in places with poor sanitation and low vaccination levels.

These outbreaks typically begin when people who are vaccinated shed live virus from the vaccine in their feces. From there, the virus can spread within the community and, over time, turn into a form that can paralyze people and start new epidemics.

Many countries that eliminated polio switched to injectable vaccines containing a killed virus decades ago to avoid such risks; the Nordic countries and the Netherlands never used the oral vaccine. The ultimate goal is to move the entire world to the shots once wild polio is eradicated, but some scientists argue that the switch should happen sooner.

“We probably could never have gotten on top of polio in the developing world without the (oral polio vaccine), but this is the price we’re now paying,” said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “The only way we are going to eliminate polio is to eliminate the use of the oral vaccine.”

Aidan O’Leary, director of WHO’s polio department, described the discovery of polio spreading in London and New York as “a major surprise,” saying that officials have been focused on eradicating the disease in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where health workers have been killed for immunizing children and where conflict has made access to some areas impossible.

Still, O’Leary said he is confident Israel, Britain and the U.S. will shut down their newly identified outbreaks quickly.

The oral vaccine is credited with dramatically reducing the number of children paralyzed by polio. When the global eradication effort began in 1988, there were about 350,000 cases of wild polio a year. So far this year, there have been 19 cases of wild polio, all in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Mozambique.

In 2020, the number of polio cases linked to the vaccine hit a peak of more than 1,100 spread out across dozens of countries. It has since declined to around 200 this year so far.

Last year, WHO and partners also began using a newer oral polio vaccine, which contains a live but weakened virus that scientists believe is less likely to mutate into a dangerous form. But supplies are limited.

To stop polio in Britain, the U.S. and Israel, what is needed is more vaccination, experts say. That is something Columbia University’s Barrett worries could be challenging in the COVID-19 era.

“What’s different now is a reduction in trust of authorities and the political polarization in countries like the U.S. and the U.K.,” Barrett said. “The presumption that we can quickly get vaccination numbers up quickly may be more challenging now.”

Oyewale Tomori, a virologist who helped direct Nigeria’s effort to eliminate polio, said that in the past, he and colleagues balked at describing outbreaks as “vaccine-derived,” wary it would make people fearful of the vaccine.

“All we can do is explain how the vaccine works and hope that people understand that immunization is the best protection, but it’s complicated,” Tomori said. “In hindsight, maybe it would have been better not to use this vaccine, but at that time, nobody knew it would turn out like this.”

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Chinese farmers struggle as scorching drought wilts crops

Associated Press

Chinese farmers struggle as scorching drought wilts crops

Mark Schiefelbein – August 20, 2022

Gan Bingdong uses a hose to water plants near a dying chili pepper plant at his farm in Longquan village in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have "significantly increased," the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) — Gan Bingdong uses a hose to water plants near a dying chili pepper plant at his farm in Longquan village in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Gan Bingdong walks through the basin of a community reservoir near his farm that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water, in Longquan village in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have "significantly increased," the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) — Gan Bingdong walks through the basin of a community reservoir near his farm that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water, in Longquan village in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Gan Bingdong stands in the basin of a community reservoir near his farm that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water, in Longquan village in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have "significantly increased," the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) — Gan Bingdong walks through the basin of a community reservoir near his farm that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water, in Longquan village in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

In this aerial photo, a community reservoir that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water is seen in Longquan village in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have "significantly increased," the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Olivia Zhang) — In this aerial photo, a community reservoir that ran nearly empty after its retaining wall started to leak and hot weather and drought conditions accelerated the loss of water is seen in Longquan village in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022. Drought conditions across a swathe of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday. The forecast called for no rain and high temperatures for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwest to the eastern part of Tibet. (AP Photo/Olivia Zhang)

LONGQUAN, China (AP) — Hundreds of persimmon trees that should be loaded with yellow fruit lie wilted in Gan Bingdong’s greenhouse in southwestern China, adding to mounting farm losses in a scorching summer that is the country’s driest in six decades.

Gan’s farm south of the industrial metropolis of Chongqing lost half its vegetable crop in heat as high as 41 degrees Celsius (106 Fahrenheit) and a drought that has shrunk the giant Yangtze River and wilted crops across central China.

Gan’s surviving eggplants are no bigger than strawberries. A reservoir beside his farm has run dry, forcing him to pump groundwater.

“This year’s high temperatures are very annoying,” Gan said.

Drought conditions across a swath of China from the densely populated east across central farming provinces into eastern Tibet have “significantly increased,” the national weather agency said Saturday.

The forecast called for high temperatures and no rain for at least three more days from Jiangsu and Anhui provinces northwest of Shanghai, through Chongqing and Sichuan provinces to the east of Tibet.

Local authorities were ordered to “use all available water sources” to supply households and livestock, the weather agency said.

The biggest impact is in Sichuan, where factories have been shut down and offices and shopping malls told to turn off air-conditioning after reservoirs to generate hydropower fell to half their normal levels.

The province of 94 million people gets 80% of its electricity from hydropower dams.

Factories that make processor chips for smartphones, auto components, solar panels and other industrial goods were shut down for at least six days through Saturday. Some say output will be depressed while others say supplies to customers are unaffected.

The shutdowns add to challenges for the ruling Communist Party as President Xi Jinping, the country’s most powerful leader in decades, prepares to try to break with tradition and award himself a third five-year term as leader at a meeting in October or November.

Growth in factory output and retail sales weakened in July, setting back China’s economic recovery after Shanghai and other industrial centers were shut down starting in late March to fight virus outbreaks.

The economy grew by just 2.5% over a year earlier in the first half of 2022, less than half the official annual goal of 5.5%.

State-run utilities are shifting power to Sichuan from other provinces. Authorities used fire trucks to deliver water to two dry villages near Chongqing.

In Hubei province, east of Chongqing, 220,000 people needed drinking water, while 6.9 million hectares (17 million acres) of crops were damaged, the provincial government said Saturday. It declared a drought emergency and released disaster aid.

In Sichuan, 47,000 hectares (116,000 acres) of crops have been lost and 433,000 hectares (1.1 million acres) damaged, the provincial disaster committee said Saturday. It said 819,000 people faced a shortage of drinking water.

Authorities in Chongqing say an estimated 1 million people in rural areas will face drinking water shortages, the Shanghai news outlet The Paper reported.

Gan, the farmer south of Chongqing, said he has lost one-third of his persimmon plants.

Farmers in the area usually harvest rice in late August or September but plan to finish at least two weeks early before plants die, according to Gan.

A community reservoir beside Gan’s farm is nearly empty, leaving a pool surrounded by cracked earth. After supply canals ran dry, it sprang a leak and heat accelerated evaporation. Gan is pumping underground water for irrigation.

“If the high temperature comes every year, we will have to find a solution such as to build up nets, daily irrigation or to install a spray system to reduce the loss,” Gan said.

Meanwhile, other areas have suffered deadly flash floods.

Flooding in the northwestern province of Qinghai killed at least 23 people and left eight missing, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing local authorities.

Mudslides and overflowing rivers late Thursday hit six villages in Qinghai’s Datong county, the report said. Some 1,500 people were forced out of their homes.

AP video producer Olivia Zhang contributed.

‘Dangerous days’: These will be the hottest California counties in 2053, study finds

The Hill

‘Dangerous days’: These will be the hottest California counties in 2053, study finds

Nexstar Media Wire – August 20, 2022

(NEXSTAR) – California, along with Arizona, Florida and Texas, make up a new list of the top 20 counties projected to see the most days per year with temperatures above 100° F, according to a new study.

In 2023, the roughly 180,000 residents of Imperial County in Southern California are projected to experience 102 “dangerous” days with a heat index exceeding 100, according to nonprofit First Street Foundation’s peer-reviewed model. By 2053, that number is 116.

It’s not just California, either. First Street’s study found that in three decades a so-called “extreme heat belt” will include Northern Texas and states bordering the Gulf, stretching north to Illinois, Indiana, and even up to Wisconsin.

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The study found that “dangerous” days occur more often in the southern half of the contiguous U.S., but especially in Florida and Texas. Starr County, Texas, topped all others in 2022 with 109 days above the threshold. Imperial, California is expected to have 53 consecutive dangerous days this year, the report states.

Here are the California counties projected to see the most days with a heat index over 100°:

Rank	County	Days above 100°F in 2023	Days above 100°F in 2053
1.	Imperial	102	116
2.	Riverside	39	55
3.	Fresno	26	43
4.	Tulare	26	43
5.	Kings	26	42
6.	Madera	22	38
7.	Glenn	22	37
8.	Sutter	21	36
9.	Tehama	21	36
10.	Kern	20	35

The model takes into account a number of factors including land surface temperatures, tree and other canopy cover, the presence of concrete and other impervious surfaces and the proximity to water. Researchers built the model under an established warming scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions reach their peak around 2040 and then begin to decline.

“Increasing temperatures are broadly discussed as averages, but the focus should be on the extension of the extreme tail events expected in a given year,” said Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation. “We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125°F and the results will be dire.”

In 2023, 8.1 million Americans living in 50 counties will experience temperatures of at least 125 degrees, the highest classification on the National Weather Service’s Heat Index – “Extreme Danger,” according to researchers.

Three decades later, the same model shows that climate change will cause 1,023 counties – home to 107.6 million people – to see temperatures rise above 125 degrees.

Preventing deaths from worsening heat

In July, days after nearly half the country — 154.6 million people — sweated through a blistering heat wave , the Biden Administration unveiled heat.gov, which includes maps, forecasts and health advice. The government can’t lower temperatures in the short-term, but it can shrink heat’s death toll, officials said.

“July 2021 was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth and summers are getting hotter and deadlier,” said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Rick Spinrad. “The annual average temperature of the contiguous U.S. has already warmed over the past few decades and is projected to rise by 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 to 5 degrees Celsius) by the end of this century.”

But officials said even though heat is the No. 1 weather killer, and warming is worsening, deaths can still be prevented. That’s the purpose of the website.

North Carolina state climatologist Kathie Dello said, “extreme heat is one of our greatest challenges as a county and I’m glad to see the interagency cooperation.”

It’s important that the website shows that heat isn’t just a problem for today “but in the future,” Dello said.

Given warming trends, this summer with its widespread heat waves “is likely to be one of the coolest summers of the rest of our lives,” Raimondo said. “That’s a pretty scary thing.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The unfortunate return of polio, explained

The Week

The unfortunate return of polio, explained

Peter Weber, Senior editor – August 20, 2022

A child with Polio. Illustrated | Getty Images

Polio is back.

The highly infectious, potentially lethal virus has been nearly eradicated through a global health campaign launched in 1988. But unlike horseshoes and hand grenades, close doesn’t cut it for communicable diseases. Poliovirus was discovered over the summer in samples of wastewater in New York City and two northern suburbs, and one unvaccinated young adult in Rockland County developed paralysis in their legs due to the virus — the first known case of polio in the U.S. since 2013.

“The fact that we’re finding it in wastewater tells you it’s more common than people appreciate,” Columbia University epidemiology professor Ian Lipkin tells Time. “We’re looking at the tip of the iceberg.” If we checked, “every major city in the U.S.” would probably have polio in its sewage, adds Columbia virologist Vincent Racaniello. Here’s what you need to know about the unwelcome return of an old public enemy.

What is polio, and how does it spread?

“Polio, or poliomyelitis, is a disabling and life-threatening disease caused by the poliovirus,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention explains. It mostly affects children.

Most people infected with the highly transmissible disease exhibit mild cold or flu-like symptoms, if they have any symptoms at all, but the virus can infect a patient’s spinal cord, causing meningitis, paralysis, and sometimes death. “Even children who seem to fully recover can develop new muscle pain, weakness, or paralysis as adults, 15 to 40 years later,” the CDC says.

The poliovirus is spread person-to-person, in rare cases through droplets from a sneeze or cough but mostly through ingesting contaminated fecal matter. “The virus multiplies in the intestine for weeks and could spread through feces or contaminated food or water — for example, when an infected child uses the toilet, neglects washing hands, and then touches food,” The New York Times explains.

Is there a cure?

No, “there is no cure for paralytic polio and no specific treatment,” the CDC says.

Why are health officials worried about polio now?

“Even a single case of paralytic polio represents a public health emergency in the United States,” a group of public health researchers wrote in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on Aug. 16, a month after New York State’s Department of Health confirmed the Rockland polio case. “Based on earlier polio outbreaks,” New York state health commissioner Dr. Mary Bassett said Aug. 4, “New Yorkers should know that for every one case of paralytic polio observed, there may be hundreds of other people infected.”

Before polio was found in New York, Israel reported its first polio case since 1988 in March, and Britain declared the June discovery of poliovirus in London’s sewers an “incident of national concern.” The samples collected in London, New York, and Israel have the same genetic fingerprint, “suggesting that the virus may have been circulating undetected for about a year somewhere in the world,” the Times reports. And they were all vaccine-derived virus.

Vaccines can cause polio?

The short answer is no, and certainly not the kind of vaccine exclusively used in the U.S. for the past two decades.

There are two types of polio vaccines: the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), which is injected in the arm or leg and uses a killed poliovirus to teach the body to recognize and attack the virus; and the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), which uses a weakened virus and is administered via oral drops. Both types of vaccine are overwhelmingly safe and effective at preventing severe polio. Each has its benefits and disadvantages.

“The oral vaccine is inexpensive, easy to administer, and can prevent infected people from spreading the virus to others, a method better suited to extinguishing outbreaks,” the Times reports. “But it has one paradoxical flaw: Vaccinated children can shed the weakened virus in feces, and from there it can sometimes find its way back into people, occasionally setting off a chain of infections in communities with low immunization rates.” Those rare infections are cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV).

The U.S. used oral vaccines for decades, but switched exclusively to the IPV in 2000 to avoid VDPV cases. “But that doesn’t prevent vaccine-derived strains from being imported by travelers from overseas, or by a U.S. resident who traveled internationally, picked up the virus from someone who had received the OPV, and brought it back home,” Time notes.

Before one of those scenarios played out in Rockland County this summer, the CDC says, there were three cases of disease caused by VDPV in the U.S. since 2000, all among people with weaker immune systems or who weren’t vaccinated against polio.

With very rare exceptions, if you are fully vaccinated against polio — with the IPV or OPV — you will not develop polio, not from the three wild strains or the vaccine-derived variety. If you are not fully vaccinated, you don’t have that protection.

“Polio was once so feared here in the United States, but there’s a reason we don’t fear it anymore, and that’s because of vaccines,” Dr. William Moss, director of the International Vaccine Access Center at Johns Hopkins University, tells the Times. “This is one of the challenges of vaccines — you prevent a disease and it goes away, and people kind of forget about the disease or why it went away.”

How can you tell if you’re vaccinated?

All 50 states have longstanding requirements that children entering child care or public schools be vaccinated against polio, as well as diphtheria and tetanus, so most adults living in the U.S. “are presumed to be immune to poliovirus from previous routine childhood immunization,” the CDC says.

“Still, after three years of managing their coronavirus status and taking precautions, many young people found themselves whispering aloud their unknown status on social media,” the Times reports. If you aren’t sure if you were vaccinated, CBS News adds, “the CDC suggests asking parents or caregivers, locating old documents from your childhood, or even asking former schools, doctors, and employers, as they may have kept a record of proof of immunization.”

If you aren’t vaccinated, or you didn’t get all three or four doses, it’s not too late. In fact, public health officials suggest you start completing your immunization regimen as soon as possible. The good news is that, except in rare situations where you will have significant exposure to the virus, “anyone who has had a complete polio vaccination series does not need a booster,” Columbia’s Racaniello tells Time. “Immunity to polio conferred by vaccination lasts a lifetime,” for both IPV and OPV courses.

What will it take to eradicate polio?

Eradicating a communicable disease is very difficult — the world has only done it once, with smallpox. But we’ve come a long way with polio since Dr. Jonas Salk developed the first vaccine in 1952.

Polio first struck the United States in Vermont in 1894. “Waves of outbreaks tore through the country over the next half-century, and peaked in 1952, when nearly 60,000 children were infected and more than 3,000 died,” the Times recounts. Frightened parents kept their kids home from swimming pools and movie theaters, but “after the first vaccine arrived in 1955, the number of cases dropped precipitously, and by 1979 the United States was declared polio-free.”

The World Health Organization and a handful of international partners launched the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988 with a goal to eliminate the virus, and “despite the recent cases, the progress is unmistakable: Global cases of polio have fallen by 99 percent — from 350,000 cases of paralysis in 1988 to about 240 so far this year,” the Times reports. Wild polio is endemic in only two countries — Afghanistan and Pakistan — and they appeared to be rid of polio at the beginning of 2022.

To eradicate a virus, though, it “must disappear from every part of the world and stay gone, regardless of wars, political disinterest, funding gaps, or conspiracy theories,” the Times reports. In February, Malawi reported its first case in 30 years, apparently imported from Pakistan, and Pakistan then reported 14 cases of its own. Then it hit Israel, then Britain the U.S.

The current goal is to eradicate polio worldwide by 2026. That will take hard work, innovation, persistence, and an estimated $4.8 billion, the Times reports. “The moment you take your eye off the ball, you know that the virus will simply reappear,” says Aidan O’Leary, the WHO’s director for polio eradication. “We have to literally face down every single chain of transmission that we can identify.”

The new flare-up is “a poignant and stark reminder that polio-free countries are not really polio-risk free,” says Dr. Ananda Bandyopadhyay, deputy director for polio at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. And as long as the virus is anywhere on earth, it’s always just “a plane ride away.”

Russia’s best and brightest are leaving the country in record numbers. 6 young Russians explain why they left

Fortune

‘We realized that there’s no way we can return’: Russia’s best and brightest are leaving the country in record numbers. 6 young Russians explain why they left

Yvonne Lau – August 20, 2022

Three months ago, Sonya, a 25-year-old who works at a major mobile gaming company and moonlights as a tutor, made one of the toughest decisions of her life: She left Russia.

She had an old but cozy communal apartment with her boyfriend and two other roommates in Moscow’s city center, a tight-knit group of friends, and spent several days a week taking classes at a local dance academy—her lifelong passion.

“It’s my home. My family, friends are there. My whole life. How can you possibly abandon all these things?” she told Fortune.

But like countless other young educated Russians, Sonya, who asked that only her first name be used, packed her bags and fled the country after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Over 3.8 million Russians left from January to March this year, according to the Federal Security Services’ own estimates. Some left for work or travel reasons, but many also left because of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Other estimates put the number of people who left because of the war at 300,000 to 3.8 million. The exact number is still unknown. A recent survey from non-governmental organization OK Russians says that the average age of Russians who left the country after Feb. 24 is 32 years old, while 80% of them have a higher education degree.

And as the war approaches its six month anniversary, the country is experiencing a second wave of outward migration, as individuals and families who needed more time to wrap up their lives are now leaving. And although the estimates vary widely, this year’s mass exodus from the country is comparable to the initial emigration out of Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed and 1.2 million Russians left in 1992 and 1993. Russia’s current, large-scale brain drain of young, skilled and educated citizens, could decimate sectors from journalism, to academia, and technology, experts say.

Sonya was part of the second exodus. In March, she bought tickets for the cheapest flight out, which was $650—only slightly less than her monthly salary of $750—and left in May. She said she realized early on that life in Russia was untenable, because of “the war… more horrid details about the situation in Ukraine were being revealed. The government, the system. Inhumane [and] anti-democratic laws. A ruined economy.”

“Everyday we were, and still are, going through an uncontrollable stream of shame and anger,” she says.

For a better future

Almost overnight, Putin’s war on Ukraine turned Russia into a global pariah and plunged the economy into chaos.

International leaders condemned Putin’s actions, and Western nations hit the country with unprecedented sanctions, including cutting it off from SWIFT, the international payments system.

Since February, over 1,000 global companies have curbed their operations in Russia, curtailing job opportunities and access to goods and services for Russians. Inflation soared to nearly 18%, while real wages plunged 7.2% in April.

In the first quarter of this year, the number of Russians living below the poverty line surged to 20.9 million—14.3% of the population, compared to 12.4 million in the last quarter of 2021, an increase of nearly 67%, according to Russia’s government statistics agency, which attributes the rise in poverty to inflation. Former Putin aide Andrei Illarionov told the BBC in April that this number could double or triple as the war continues.

As a result, young people in Russia envision an uncertain and unstable life ahead due to the war. They’re more opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than other demographics groups because they don’t want war, nor to be isolated from the rest of the world, according to surveys and experts.

“They feel more acutely than other groups that the war has deprived them of a future,” Kseniya Kirillova, an analyst for think tank Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told Fortune.

Last June, 23-year-old Roman Pastukhov left his hometown of Blagoveshchensk, a small Russian city where China is a 5-minute pontoon ride away. He knew he had to leave Russia to obtain a widely-recognized post-graduate degree, and had received a scholarship to study environmental science and technology in Japan.

Russia’s social, political, and economic problems, which have piled up over the years, made living in Russia an unattractive prospect, Pastukhov told Fortune. “A mid-range job won’t get you anywhere,” he said, citing low salaries, high inflation, and an unstable ruble.

Pastukhov and his wife Anastasiia, had planned to return to Russia to see family and figure out the next chapter of their lives. But Putin’s war reinforced that living there would only bring financial instability and repression. After Feb. 24, Pastukhov lost access to his investment accounts, due to western sanctions on Russian banks.

He says at first, he was mostly upset and terrified for his friends in Ukraine. Now, he’s shocked at how well state propaganda is influencing Russians.

“We realized that there’s no way we can return to Russia anytime soon. Once we get in, we might not be able to get out. Staying outside seems to be the safest option for now,” Pastukhov says.

‘The creative class that I know has already left Russia’

For over a decade, 32-year-old digital artist Grishanti Holon—a professional pseudonym— participated in radical art groups, including the infamous anti-government collective Voina, and hung up anti-Putin posters.

Despite his activism, the government recognized his talent and awarded him with the title of “Talent of Russia” in 2019. But he says life under Putin’s regime had by then become unlivable because free creative and political expression was impossible.

By December 2021, the “atmosphere became so tense” that he left Moscow for Bali with his partner and professional team, Holon told Fortune. He believes if he had tried to do it after the war started, he would not be able to.

“I’m more than sure I would’ve been detained and imprisoned,” he says. After the war began, he halted a digital NFT project in partnership with Russian state bank Sberbank mid-launch, as he didn’t want to support the country’s war effort, even indirectly.

Now, the “vast majority of the creative class that I know has already left Russia. [Our community] in Bali alone is several hundred people,” Holon says.

Academics, activists and tech workers are also leaving in droves. Around 10% of Russia’s tech workforce has left—or is planning to leave—the country, the Russian Association for Electronic Communications told Russia’s Parliament in May.

Elena, a 31-year-old freelancer who creates content on YouTube, shared her story with Fortune in March, when she fled Moscow for Istanbul. Her elderly parents ask when she will return, but she says she has no plans to do so because the “news and ideas coming from the Russian government terrifies me,” she told Fortune.

She’s now learned basic Turkish and opened an account with a European digital bank. She says her friends have settled in Brazil and South Korea.

“Educated people who understand the real situation are leaving the country; selling their houses, making different documents, and learning foreign languages,” she says.

Photo of Elena, a young Russian who fled her country, standing on a rock on a beach. — Elena—Istanbul_crop_web

In January 2021, 36-year-old Andrey Gusev, the product head for blockchain and gaming firm Sabai Ecoverse, left Zelenograd, a small city outside of Moscow, for Phuket for better career opportunities. He has no plans to return.

“Seventy percent of my friends, who were in intellectual spheres…like IT, science and engineering, have left or are actively looking for ways to leave Russia,” he told Fortune.

Another tech worker, Alexander Salomatov, founder of metaverse and crypto consulting firm Soulmate Consulting, left Moscow for Bali in January of this year. He wanted to develop tech projects with a global team and user base, which seemed difficult to do in Russia. But it was the war that reinforced his belief that “now is not the best time” to live in Russia and traditional allies like Belarus and Kazakhstan.

“I can’t image what [good] is going to happen in Russia… if all of the most talented, energetic, and enterprising people have left their homeland,” Holon says.

Lost human capital

The mass flight of human capital—tech workers, academics, journalists, and anti-war activists—could decimate certain sectors and hurt a Russian economy that’s already reeling and largely cut off from international trade and business.

The country has now lost its “most valuable human resources,” Michael Reynolds, director of Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies at Princeton University, told Fortune. “Young, educated, talented, and entrepreneurial Russians who, with their education and skills, would have become leaders in the Russian economy and helped drive its growth,” he says.

Some Russians will continue to contribute to their home economy through remote work, and can act as a sanctions buffer by setting up import-export operations in countries like Turkey, Armenia, and India. But the “bulk of this talent will be lost,” Reynolds says.

The Russian economy isn’t simply going to collapse because of the exodus, experts say. The supply of talented and skilled workers remaining in Russia—approximately only 30% of Russians hold a passport that lets them travel abroad—is “sufficient to keep the economy afloat,” Margarita Zavadskaya, a social science senior research fellow at the University of Helsinki’s Finnish Centre for Russian and East European Studies, told Fortune.

“But those who would replace [emigres] are likely to be less [skilled] on average and will… be more politically compliant,” she says. Some young Russians who stayed behind, like poet and teacher Katya V., who told her story to Fortune in March, says that she and her friends who remained in Russia did so to support their families and to protest from within. “I don’t want to give up everything here for [the government] to enjoy [ruling] without any resistance,” she says.

Still, the bottom line is that the Russian economy is losing competent and competitive [workers],” Zavadskaya says.

Photo of three digital paintings referencing Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin has sought to portray the brain drain from the country as a positive, saying Russians who left the country and those who hold pro-western views as “traitors” who seek to destroy Russia.

“The problem is that… their [slave] mentality is there, not here, with our people. I am convinced that a natural and necessary self-detoxification of society like this will strengthen our country,” Putin said earlier this year.

But the government is showing signs that it might not let go of expats so easily.

Russian human rights organization Perviy Otdel (First Department) reported in May that FSB agents have started asking the relatives of those who have fled the country to ask them to return.

And Russia’s prospects for rebuilding and reaccumulating its lost human capital will ultimately be difficult in the short-term and with Putin still in power.

“Russia’s economic revival is only possible if the devastating war [ends], and the existing political regime collapses,” Zavadskaya says.

Russia would need to promise economic and political stability to attract Russians to return, Reynolds says. But as he notes, “there is no prospect of stability now.”

L.A. County will experience triple the number of hot days by 2053, study says

Los Angeles Times

L.A. County will experience triple the number of hot days by 2053, study says

Noah Goldberg – August 19, 2022

The sun sets between two of the tallest buildings west of the Mississippi, as seen from Whittier, CA., on Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2022. The Wilshire Grand Center, left, is the tallest at 1,100 ft. and the US Bank Tower, right, is the third tallest at 1,018 feet. The According to their website, "the California Independent System Operator (ISO) issued a statewide Flex Alert, a call for voluntary electricity conservation, due to predicted high temperatures pushing up energy demand and tightening available power supplies." — The sun sets over downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday. (Raul Roa / Los Angeles Times)

Los Angeles County will experience triple the number of hot days per year by 2053, according to a new study.

The county, where a typical hot day is just under 94 degrees, gets about seven days that exceed that per year, according to the report released this week by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit, climate-focused research organization based in New York. By 2053, that number will jump to 21, the study found.

Los Angeles County is up there with Del Norte and Orange counties as the areas in California that will see the most severe jump in hot days. The increase will result in freak infrastructure accidents and cost the state more than half a billion dollars in air conditioning consumption.

“The results will be dire,” First Street Chief Executive Matthew Eby said about the rise in severely hot days across the country.

In 2053, California’s Imperial County, is expected to have 116 days in which the temperature exceeds 100 degrees. Riverside County is expected to have 55 days of triple-digit heat — the second highest number for a California county — according to the study.

All areas of California, as well as the rest of the country, will see increased heat over the next 30 years, according to the report. The state will also see increasing numbers of heat waves — three straight days of the county’s average hot day — which are worse on the West Coast.

“The likelihood of a heat wave in California is much higher than the rest of the country,” Eby said.

The First Street study also suggests a steep increase in the number of Americans who will face days where the temperature goes above 125 degrees, including in places like Chicago.

By 2053, more than 100 million Americans will deal with days that hot, whereas just over 8 million currently do, according to the study.

The report refers to the counties that will experience a day over 125 degrees as the “extreme heat belt.”

Meanwhile, California is already enduring a historic drought amplified by global warming.

Earlier this month, Gov. Gavin Newsom released a new plan to adapt to the state’s hotter, drier future by capturing and storing more water, recycling more wastewater and desalinating seawater and salty groundwater.

The governor’s new water-supply strategy, detailed in a 16-page document, lays out a series of actions aimed at preparing the state for an estimated 10% decrease in California’s water supply by 2040 because of higher temperatures and decreased runoff. The plan focuses on accelerating infrastructure projects, boosting conservation and upgrading the state’s water system to keep up with the increasing pace of climate change.

“The hots are getting a lot hotter. The dries are getting a lot drier,” Newsom said. “We have to adapt to that new reality, and we have to change our approach.”

The state plan calls for expanding water storage capacity above and below ground by 4 million acre-feet; expanding groundwater recharge; accelerating wastewater recycling projects; building projects to capture more runoff during storms, and investing in desalination of ocean water and salty groundwater.

The projected loss of 10% of the state’s water supply within two decades translates to losing 6 million to 9 million acre-feet per year on average — more than the volume of Shasta Lake, the state’s largest reservoir, which holds 4.5 million acre-feet.

“Mother Nature is still bountiful,” Newsom said. “But she’s not operating like she did 50 years ago.”

Times staff writer Ian James contributed to this story.

New study suggests covid increases risks of brain disorders

The Washington Post

New study suggests covid increases risks of brain disorders

Frances Stead Sellers – August 19, 2022

Close up photo of two doctors male and female working in laboratory holding digital tablet and analysing mri scan image. (Getty Images)

A study published this week in the Lancet Psychiatry showed increased risks of some brain disorders two years after infection with the coronavirus, shedding new light on the long-term neurological and psychiatric aspects of the virus.

The analysis, conducted by researchers at the University of Oxford and drawing on health records data from more than 1 million people around the world, found that while the risks of many common psychiatric disorders returned to normal within a couple of months, people remained at increased risk for dementia, epilepsy, psychosis and cognitive deficit (or brain fog) two years after contracting covid. Adults appeared to be at particular risk of lasting brain fog, a common complaint among coronavirus survivors.

The study was a mix of good and bad news findings, said Paul Harrison, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Oxford and the senior author of the study. Among the reassuring aspects was the quick resolution of symptoms such as depression and anxiety.

What we know about long covid, two years into the pandemic

Wellness reporter Allyson Chiu spoke to several experts to better understand what we know about long covid, two years into the pandemic.

“I was surprised and relieved by how quickly the psychiatric sequelae subsided,” Harrison said.

David Putrino, director of rehabilitation innovation at Mount Sinai Health System in New York, who has been studying the lasting impacts of the coronavirus since early in the pandemic, said the study revealed some very troubling outcomes.

“It allows us to see without a doubt the emergence of significant neuropsychiatric sequelae in individuals that had covid and far more frequently than those who did not,” he said.

Because it focused only on the neurological and psychiatric effects of the coronavirus, the study authors and others emphasized that it is not strictly long-covid research.

“It would be overstepping and unscientific to make the immediate assumption that everybody in the [study] cohort had long covid,” Putrino said. But the study, he said, “does inform long-covid research.”

Between 7 million and 23 million people in the United States have long covid, according to recent government estimates – a catchall term for a wide range of symptoms including fatigue, breathlessness and anxiety that persist weeks and months after the acute infection has subsided. Those numbers are expected to rise as the coronavirus settles in as an endemic disease.

The study was led by Maxime Taquet, a senior research fellow at the University of Oxford who specializes in using big data to shed light on psychiatric disorders.

The researchers matched almost 1.3 million patients with a diagnosis of covid-19 between Jan. 20, 2020, and April 13, 2022, with an equal number of patients who had other respiratory diseases during the pandemic. The data, provided by electronic health records network TriNetX, came largely from the United States but also included data from Australia, Britain, Spain, Bulgaria, India, Malaysia and Taiwan.

The study group, which included 185,000 children and 242,000 older adults, revealed that risks differed according to age groups, with people age 65 and older at greatest risk of lasting neuropsychiatric affects.

For people between the ages of 18 and 64, a particularly significant increased risk was of persistent brain fog, affecting 6.4 percent of people who had had covid compared with 5.5 percent in the control group.

Six months after infection, children were not found to be at increased risk of mood disorders, although they remained at increased risk of brain fog, insomnia, stroke and epilepsy. None of those affects were permanent for children. With epilepsy, which is extremely rare, the increased risk was larger.

The study found that 4.5 percent of older people developed dementia in the two years after infection, compared with 3.3 percent of the control group. That 1.2-point increase in a diagnosis as damaging as dementia is particularly worrisome, the researchers said.

The study’s reliance on a trove of de-identified electronic health data raised some cautions, particularly during the tumultuous time of the pandemic. Tracking long-term outcomes may be hard when patients may have sought care through many different health systems, including some outside the TriNetX network.

“I personally find it impossible to judge the validity of the data or the conclusions when the data source is shrouded in mystery and the sources of the data are kept secret by legal agreement,” said Harlan Krumholz, a Yale scientist who has developed an online platform where patients can enter their own health data.

Taquet said the researchers used several means of assessing the data, including making sure it reflected what is already known about the pandemic, such as the drop in death rates during the omicron wave.

Also, Taquet said, “the validity of data is not going to be better than validity of diagnosis. If clinicians make mistakes, we will make the same mistakes.”

The study follows earlier research from the same group, which reported last year that a third of covid patients experienced mood disorders, strokes or dementia six months after infection with the coronavirus.

While cautioning that it is impossible to make full comparisons among the effects of recent variants, including omicron and its subvariants, which are currently driving infections, and those that were prevalent a year or more ago, the researchers outlined some initial findings: Even though omicron caused less severe immediate symptoms, the longer-term neurological and psychiatric outcomes appeared similar to the delta waves, indicating that the burden on the world’s health-care systems might continue even with less-severe variants.

Hannah Davis, a co-founder of the Patient-Led Research Collaborative, which studies long covid, said that finding was meaningful. “It goes against the narrative that omicron is more mild for long covid, which is not based on science,” Davis said.

“We see this all the time,” Putrino said. “The general conversation keeps leaving out long covid. The severity of initial infection doesn’t matter when we talk about long-term sequelae that ruin people’s lives.”

The Washington Post’s Dan Keating contributed to this report.

Severe European drought reveals sunken World War II warships on Danube River

ABC News

Severe European drought reveals sunken World War II warships on Danube River

Kyla Guilfoil – August 19, 2022

Europe’s scorching drought has revealed the hulks of dozens of German warships that became submerged during World War Two near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo.

The ships, sunken on Danube River, were part of Nazi Germany’s Black Sea fleet in 1944 as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces, officials said.

The vessels still impact the river today, often hampering river traffic during low water levels, authorities said.

Now, over 20 ships have come to the surface, many of which are still loaded with ammunition and explosives. Officials say the vessels pose a risk to shipping on the Danube.

PHOTO: Wreckage of a World War II German warship is seen in the Danube in Prahovo, Serbia Aug. 18, 2022. (Fedja Grulovic/Reuters)

MORE: ‘Spanish Stonehenge’ has reemerged amid Europe’s sizzling drought–

The vessels have limited the navigable section of the stretch near Prahova to 100 meters, significantly slimmer than the prior 180 meters ships had access to.

Serbian officials have taken to dredging along the river to salvage the usable navigation lanes.

We have deployed almost [our] entire [dredging] capacity… We are struggling to keep out waterways navigable along their full length,” Veljko Kovacevic, Assistant Minister for Infrastructure and Transportation, told Reuters.

The increasing difficulties for shipping boats will impact the country’s vital transportation of coal, which accounts for two thirds of Serbia’s electrical output, officials said.

PHOTO: Local fisherman Ivica Skodric, sails on his boat past the wreckage of a World War II German warship in the Danube in Prahovo, Serbia August 18, 2022. (Fedja Grulovic/Reuters)

Further implicating the energy crisis, water flow in Serbia’s hydropower system dropped by half in the past two months, officials told the Balkan Green Energy News.

MORE: World War II-era ship emerges in Lake Mead amid climate impacts

The country is also already enduring the impacts of the war in Ukraine upon their energy supply.

Officials said the ships vary, with some now showing turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while even more still remain buried under sand banks.

In March, the Serbian government invited a contracted a private company for the salvage of some of the hulls and removal of ammunition and explosives. The operation cost officials an estimated $30 million, according to the country’s infrastructure ministry.

PHOTO: Wreckage of a World War II German warship surfaces in the Danube in Prahovo, Serbia Aug. 18, 2022. (Fedja Grulovic/Reuters)

MORE: 78% of adults in US report being affected by severe weather caused by climate change: Report

“The German flotilla has left behind a big ecological disaster that threatens us, people of Prahovo,” Velimir Trajilovic, 74, a pensioner from Prahovo who wrote a book about the German ships, told Reuters.

The exposure of more of the sunken fleet comes after a summer of low water levels and sizzling drought.

The Danube levels near Prahovo are less than half their average for this time of the summer, experts say.

Yangtze shrinks as China’s drought disrupts industry

Associated Press

Yangtze shrinks as China’s drought disrupts industry

Mark Schiefelbein – August 19, 2022

A man walks along the lower than normal bank of the Jialing River in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Friday, Aug. 19, 2022. Ships crept down the middle of the Yangtze on Friday after the driest summer in six decades left one of the mightiest rivers shrunk to barely half its normal width and set off a scramble to contain damage to a weak economy in a politically sensitive year. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) — A man walks along the lower than normal bank of the Jialing River in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Friday, Aug. 19, 2022. Ships crept down the middle of the Yangtze on Friday after the driest summer in six decades left one of the mightiest rivers shrunk to barely half its normal width and set off a scramble to contain damage to a weak economy in a politically sensitive year. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Students carrying umbrellas stand on the dry riverbed of the Jialing River in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Friday, Aug. 19, 2022. Ships crept down the middle of the Yangtze on Friday after the driest summer in six decades left one of the mightiest rivers shrunk to barely half its normal width and set off a scramble to contain damage to a weak economy in a politically sensitive year. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) — Students carrying umbrellas stand on the dry riverbed of the Jialing River in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Friday, Aug. 19, 2022. Ships crept down the middle of the Yangtze on Friday after the driest summer in six decades left one of the mightiest rivers shrunk to barely half its normal width and set off a scramble to contain damage to a weak economy in a politically sensitive year. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

In this aerial photo, the lower than normal bank of the Jialing River is seen in southwestern China's Chongqing Municipality, Friday, Aug. 19, 2022. Ships crept down the middle of the Yangtze on Friday after the driest summer in six decades left one of the mightiest rivers shrunk to barely half its normal width and set off a scramble to contain damage to a weak economy in a politically sensitive year. (AP Photo/Olivia Zhang) — In this aerial photo, the lower than normal bank of the Jialing River is seen in southwestern China’s Chongqing Municipality, Friday, Aug. 19, 2022. Ships crept down the middle of the Yangtze on Friday after the driest summer in six decades left one of the mightiest rivers shrunk to barely half its normal width and set off a scramble to contain damage to a weak economy in a politically sensitive year. (AP Photo/Olivia Zhang)
ASSOCIATED PRESS

CHONGQING, China (AP) — Ships crept down the middle of the Yangtze on Friday after China’s driest summer in six decades left one of the mightiest rivers barely half its normal width and set off a scramble to contain the damage to a weak economy in a politically sensitive year.

Factories in Sichuan province and the adjacent metropolis of Chongqing in the southwest were ordered to shut down after reservoirs that supply hydropower fell to half their normal levels and demand for air conditioning surged in scorching temperatures.

River ferries in Chongqing that usually are packed with sightseers were empty and tied to piers beside mudflats that stretched as much as 50 meters (50 yards) from the normal shoreline to the depleted river’s edge. Smaller ships sailed down the middle of the Yangtze, one of China’s biggest trade channels, but no large cargo ships could be seen.

Normally bustling streets were empty after temperatures hit 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in Chongqing on Thursday. State media said that was the hottest in China outside the desert region of Xinjiang in the northwest since official records began in 1961.

“We cannot live through this summer without air conditioning,” said Chen Haofeng, 22, who was taking pictures of the exposed riverbed. “Nothing can cool us down.”

The disruption adds to challenges for the ruling Communist Party, which is trying to shore up sagging economic growth before a meeting in October or November when President Xi Jinping is expected to try to award himself a third five-year term as leader.

The world’s second-largest economy grew by just 2.5% over a year earlier in the first half of 2022, less than half the official target of 5.5%.

The drought’s impact in Sichuan is unusually severe because the province gets 80% of its power from hydroelectric dams.

Thousands of factories that make processor chips, solar panels and auto components in Sichuan and Chongqing shut down this week for at least six days.

Some announced there was no disruption in supplies to customers, but the Shanghai city government said in a letter released Thursday that Tesla Ltd. and a major Chinese automaker were forced to suspend production.

The city government of Chengdu, the Sichuan provincial capital, told households to conserve power by setting air conditioning no lower than 27 C (80 F). Another city, Dazhou, earlier announced rolling three-hour daily power outages for neighborhoods.

The Yangtze basin, covering parts of 19 provinces, produces 45% of China’s economic output, according to the World Bank.

Low water levels in rivers also forced halts to cargo shipments.

A canal that connects Wuhan on the Yangtze with the city of Anqing to the northeast in Anhui was closed because it was too shallow for vessels to move safely, the Shanghai news outlet The Paper reported.

The national impact of shutdowns is limited because Sichuan accounts for only 4% of industrial production, while other provinces use more coal-fired power, which hasn’t been disrupted.

The government says China’s two main state-owned power companies, State Grid Ltd. and Southern Grid Ltd., are moving power from 15 other provinces to Sichuan.

A member of the Communist Party’s seven-member ruling Standing Committee, Han Zheng, promised official support to ensure power supplies during a visit Wednesday to State Grid, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

China suffered similar disruptions last year when a dry summer caused hydropower shortages and shut down factories in Guangdong province in the southeast, a global manufacturing center. Other regions suffered blackouts due to coal shortages and mandatory power cuts to meet official energy efficiency targets.

This year is unlikely to be so severe, according to Larry Hu of Macquarie Group.

“If the power rationing in Sichuan only lasts a few weeks, the impact on the industrial production at the national level should be very limited,” Hu said in a report.

Xuguang Electronics Co. in Chengdu said the six-day shutdown would reduce its output by 48,000 electronic circuits. The company said it expected to take a 5 million yuan ($600,000) hit to its annual profit.

BOE Technology Group Co., which makes electronic displays, said a Sichuan subsidiary would suspend production. BOE promised in a statement issued through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to “fully guarantee delivery of customers’ products.”

News reports said producers in Sichuan of solar panels and lithium for electric cars also shut down, but no companies announced disruptions in supplies.

AP video producer Olivia Zhang contributed to this report.

Droughts: People will need to ‘change the way we use our landscapes for tourism,’ professor says

Yahoo! Finance

Droughts: People will need to ‘change the way we use our landscapes for tourism,’ professor says

August 19, 2022

Toronto Metropolitan University Director at the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management Dr. Frederic Dimanche joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the economic impact of climate change and how it will affect tourism in particular.

– The images, they’re stunning. They’re disturbing. Quite frankly, they are depressing. Look at it. Water levels at once-pristine Lake Powell and Lake Mead are now at unimaginable heights. Both lakes are around 27% of capacity. That’s down from 95% in 2000. Climate change taking its toll on economies around the world. Let’s talk more about this with Dr. Frederic Dimanche, director of the Metropolitan University’s School of Hospitality and Tourism Management. Good to see you, doc. I know this is primarily, number one, a problem for our planet. What is the economic toll of climate change?

FREDERIC DIMANCHE: Well, the economic toll of climate change is tremendous on all kinds of different sectors, obviously. So my specialty is tourism, obviously, so I will talk about tourism specifically, but it affects every single aspect of the economy. Think about waterways in Europe that are not being used anymore because the water levels are too low. Think about the energy sector that could be shut down because there is not enough water to create hydroelectric systems.

And obviously, the tourism industry is very much affected because people are being displaced. Some tourism activities cannot take place. We’ve seen that in the western part of the United States, but we see that in Europe also this summer. Think about the fires that took place in France in the past few weeks. Think about the drought. There is a very significant impact overall, and I think we are coming slowly to realize how much that impact is.

– Well, Frederic, talk about just how much it is impacted. Do we have any data yet just on how this extreme heat, or the floods, or the droughts, have affected tourist spending so far this year?

FREDERIC DIMANCHE: No, we don’t have that information yet. But what we know is that at least it’s displacing spending, so people may not spend anymore in one region because they decide to go somewhere else. So overall, you may not see a very big difference, but for someone specific destinations that are very dependent on the travel and tourism sector, that will represent a very big impact.

– And the big story of the week– and I mentioned Lake Powell and Lake Mead, but the big story was, of course, because of that, we’re seeing cuts to the Colorado River, most notably with the state of Arizona. How do you expect that to impact economies and, to your point, tourism?

FREDERIC DIMANCHE: Well, people will have to realize– and when I say people, it’s going to have to be the states, the local governments, will have to realize that we have been depending too much on this mighty river, the Colorado River, but we have been draining it far too much. We know we have had issues of water supply for the past 10 years, or 20 years, or 30 years. We’ve been threats before. Remember two years ago, there was a very significant drought, and we know about this before.

So this seems to be occurring on a regular basis now more and more often, and we’re going to have to make some choices. We’re going to have to change our lifestyle. We’re going to have to change the way we use our landscapes, for tourism activities as well as for residential activities. We probably cannot continue to live the way we are doing right now.

– And we’ve also got the flooding and the fires at national parks like Yellowstone. You talk about some of the lifestyle changes we should make. Is it the government? Is it private sector? Where does the answer lie beyond individuals making the choices you discussed?

– Well, the individuals are going to have– we asked the individuals to make some choices. We asked people not to water lawns and these type of things. But it’s a drop in the bucket, really. Until we see very significant change at the government level that will be changing the way we use the landscape, we use the land– does it make sense to develop some golf courses, for example, in arid climates in Arizona, for example, or eastern California? It may not make sense anymore in this kind of new environment.

So I think there are some hard questions to ask for government who will have to provide some new directives, some new directions for us all to follow. And us as the individuals, as well as the businesses.

– Every time I play golf in the deserts of Arizona or Palm Springs, I can’t help but wonder that. Love to discuss that in the future, doctor. Really appreciate you being with us. Thank you.