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Born and raised in Chicago, Illinois. Bogan High School. Worked in Alaska after the earthquake. Joined U.S. Army at 17. Sergeant, B Battery, 3rd Battalion, 84th Artillery, 7th Army. Member of 12 different unions, including 4 different locals of the I.B.E.W. Worked for fortune 50, 100 and 200 companies as an industrial electrician, electrical/electronic technician.
(Reuters) – Much of the western United States will be gripped by a heat wave this week, with temperatures in some parts of California soaring above 110 Fahrenheit (43 Celsius) on Wednesday.
The extreme heat is also raising the risk of wildfires. The Wishon Fire, a 350-acre blaze in the Sequoia National Forest in California, was 35% contained. (Graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/3T9z9BB)
Here are some factors causing the heat waves, according to scientists.
HUMAN-INFLUENCED CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels is a global phenomenon that is certainly playing a role in what the United States is experiencing, scientists say.
“Climate change is making extreme and unprecedented heat events both more intense and more common, pretty much universally throughout the world,” said Daniel Swain, climate scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles.
“Heat waves are probably the most underestimated type of potential disaster because they routinely kill a lot of people. And we just don’t hear about it because it doesn’t kill them in, to put it bluntly, sufficiently dramatic ways. There aren’t bodies on the street,” said Swain.
Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, said with climate change the world is seeing shifting wind patterns and weather systems in ways that makes heat waves more intense, persistent and widespread.
Alex Ruane, researcher at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said as the world warms, it takes less of a natural anomaly to cause extreme heat categories.
“Because we’re closer to those thresholds, it’s more likely that you’ll get more than one heat wave at the same time. We’re seeing this in the United States.”
ARCTIC WARMING AND JET STREAM MIGRATION
The Arctic is warming three to four times faster than the globe as a whole, meaning there is ever less difference between northern temperatures and those closer to the equator.
That is resulting in swings in the North Atlantic jet stream, which in turn leads to extreme weather events like heat waves and floods, according to Francis at the Woodwell Climate Research Center.
HEAT DOMES
Warmer oceans contribute to heat domes, which trap heat over large geographical areas.
Scientists say the main cause of heat domes is a strong change in ocean temperatures from west to east, which occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean the preceding winter.
“As prevailing winds move the hot air east, the northern shifts of the jet stream trap the air and move it toward land, where it sinks, resulting in heat waves,” the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says on its website.
EL NINO AND LA NINA
Every few years, the climate patterns known as El Nino and, less frequently, La Nina occur. El Nino brings warm water from the equatorial Pacific Ocean up to the western coast of North America, and La Nina brings colder water.
At present, La Nina is in effect. Because summer temperatures trend lower during La Nina, climate scientists are concerned about what a serious heat wave would look like during the next El Nino, when even hotter summer weather could be expected.
(Reporting by Daniel Trotta; Editing by Donna Bryson, Lisa Shumaker and Josie Kao)
Climate change has doubled the chance of a California megaflood: Study
Ben Adler, Senior Editor– August 16, 2022
California is already known for being vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquakes, wildfires and even tsunamis, but a new study in the journal Science Advances finds that it is at increased risk of another: a disastrous megaflood that could cause more than $1 trillion in losses and turn low-lying areas into a “vast inland sea.”
The Golden State is currently enduring the worst 20-year drought in at least 1,200 years — an event made more likely due to climate change, as warmer air causes more evaporation. But, the study’s authors note, “Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods.”
Just as increased evaporation causes more frequent and severe droughts, it also causes more extreme rainfall when a storm arrives. The paper finds that climate change has doubled the chances of a dramatic flood in California during the next 40 years, and that the risk will continue to increase if average global temperatures keep rising.
Low water levels at Grant Lake, which is fed by now nearly snowless mountains in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, expose an expanded shoreline on Aug. 11 near Lee Vining, Calif. (David McNew/Getty Images)
The researchers used new high-resolution weather modeling and existing climate models to find how often a long series of storms fueled by atmospheric rivers that have occurred about once a century in recent history would occur, now that global average temperatures have risen 1.1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the Industrial Revolution. What they found was that warmer temperatures have doubled the risk of those conditions, so that what was once a 1-in-100-year flood would now occur every 50 years, on average.
“Climate change has probably already doubled the risk of an extremely severe storm sequence in California, like the one in the study,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who co-authored the study with Xingying Huang, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told NPR. “But each additional degree of warming is going to further increase that risk.”
An atmospheric river is a long, narrow band of heavy moisture. Historically, winter atmospheric rivers have led to large snowfalls in the Sierra Nevada mountains. In a warmer climate, however, atmospheric rivers will be stronger because they hold more moisture. With warmer temperatures, more of the precipitation will fall as rain, causing flooding, instead of snow, which melts gradually.
In recent history, the only example of such a flood is the Great Flood of 1862. In December 1861, nearly 15 feet of snow fell in the Sierra Nevada mountain range, and subsequent atmospheric rivers dumped rain for 43 days after that, with the water pooling in valleys. This meant that in the winter of 1862, parts of California were submerged in up to 30 feet of water for weeks, according to CNN. The state capital in Sacramento, “was under 10 feet of debris-filled water for months.”
A lithograph showing K Street in the city of Sacramento, Calif., during the Great Flood of 1862. (A. Rosenfield/WikiCommons)
Buildings were destroyed, including one out of every eight homes, and 4,000 people died. The state lost one-quarter of its economy that year.
No flood that large has happened since then, but river sediment deposits show that in the pre-climate change era, such floods usually happened every 100 to 200 years.
“We find that climate change has already increased the risk of a [1862-like] megaflood scenario in California, but that future climate warming will likely bring about even sharper risk increases,” the study’s authors write.
“It’s a question of when rather than if [the megaflood] occurs,” Swain told CNN.
But the effects would be far worse, now that California has grown to 39 million residents, with an economy that, if it were a country, would be the world’s fifth-largest.
According to the researchers’ modeling, Stockton, Fresno and Los Angeles would be under water and damages could be upward of $1 trillion, potentially the most expensive disaster in world history. Interstate highways in California, such as I-5 and I-80, would probably be shut down for weeks.
A man kayaks down a flooded street in the town of Guerneville, Calif., on Feb. 28, 2019, thanks to floodwaters from the Russian River nearby. (Josh Edelson/AP)
“Every major population center in California would get hit at once — probably parts of Nevada and other adjacent states, too,” Swain said in a UCLA press release.
The increased risk of extreme rainfall due to climate change is not limited to California or the West Coast. The United States recently experienced three extreme rainfalls of the kind that were supposed to only occur once in every 1,000 years: southern Illinois received 12 inches of rain in 12 hours, the St. Louis area 6 to 10 inches of rain in just seven hours, and parts of eastern Kentucky were drenched by 14 inches of rain in two days.
The California Department of Water Resources supported the study with data and funding, as part of an effort to understand and prepare for extreme weather risks exacerbated by climate change. Further research — which will include partnering with state and federal emergency management agencies — will try to determine where the flooding would be worst and how it could be mitigated.
“Modeling extreme weather behavior is crucial to helping all communities understand flood risk even during periods of drought like the one we’re experiencing right now,” Karla Nemeth, director of the California Department of Water Resources, said in a statement.
Arizona loses one-fifth of its Colorado River allocation under new federal drought plan
Debra Utacia Krol, Arizona Republic – August 16, 2022
The federal government will impose deeper cuts on the drought-stricken Colorado River, officials said on Tuesday, reducing water deliveries to Arizona by one-fifth starting in January.
The Bureau of Reclamation announced what it called “urgent action” as water levels in the river’s two largest reservoirs continue to drop. Under the steps outlined Tuesday, Arizona will lose 592,000 acre-feet of its river allocation in 2023, which represents 21% of its usual delivery. That’s an increase of 80,000 acre-feet from the 2022 cuts.
The additional cuts will come from the non-Indian agricultural water allocations, which includes farmers and some tribes, said Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke.
Nevada will give up 25,000 acre-feet, about 8% of its allocation, and Mexico’s share will be cut by 104,000 acre-feet, or 7% of its allocation. California will not lose any of its share under the blueprint released Tuesday.
These moves are meant to protect two major dams from structural damage and the ability to generate electric power.
Currently, Lake Mead holds just over 25% capacity and Lake Powell just less than 25%.
“Prolonged drought is one of the most profound issues facing the U.S. today,” said Tommy Beaudreau, assistant Interior secretary.
The Bureau of Reclamation also said it would take immediate action to address the continuing shortfalls in the system. Some of those include reducing Glen Canyon Dam releases to below 7 million acre-feet per year to protect critical infrastructure; investing in conservation and voluntary agreements; and looking closely at Lake Mead operations to prevent the reservoir from falling to critically low levels.
Federal officials said the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden on Tuesday, allocates $4 billion to the Bureau of Reclamation for drought relief and $12.5 million for emergency drought funding for tribes.
The measure also allocates $550 million for water programs in disadvantaged communities. That’s in addition to $8.3 billion the bureau received to address drought and build water systems under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act.
Interior Department officials said they would continue dialogue with the 30 federally recognized tribes in the basin and with Mexico as well as with the seven basin states to jointly deal with the long-term shortages.
Arizona: Proposed cuts are ‘unacceptable’
This chart shows the key water levels in Lake Mead, which is used to determine water deliveries for Arizona, Nevada and California.
Arizona’s water managers suggested the plan was not enough and put too much of the burden on the Central Arizona Project, despite calls from the federal government to reduce water consumption across the river basin.
“It is unacceptable for Arizona to continue to carry a disproportionate burden of reductions for the benefit of others who have not contributed,” read a statement by Buschatzke and Ted Cooke, general manager of the CAP.
They said a proposal put forth by Arizona was rejected.
Federal officials acknowledged the urgency of the situation.
“Our reservoirs are declining rapidly,” said Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary of the Interior Department for water and science.
She said all users have the responsibility to ensure the water is used responsibly. Trujillo said if new funding is authorized without prompt actions now, the Colorado River and the 40 million people who depend on it will face an uncertain future.
Arizona already has taken significant cuts to its annual take from the river, but it hasn’t been enough to keep Lake Mead from dropping further.
Under a set of guidelines negotiated between the states and the Bureau of Reclamation, the Central Arizona Project reduced its pumping by 512,000 acre-feet this year after the bureau officially declared a shortage base on reservoir projections released a year ago.
A bathtub ring of light minerals shows the high water line of Lake Mead near water intakes on the Arizona side of Hoover Dam at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area on June 26, 2022, near Boulder City, Nevada. The reservoir is now below 30% of capacity, Its level has dropped 170 feet since reaching a high-water mark in 1983.
That would be enough to supply about 1.5 million Arizona households if it went exclusively to municipal uses.
The next tier, triggered when Lake Mead is projected to drop below elevation 1,050 feet above sea level, requires another 80,000 acre-feet from Arizona under guidelines adopted in 2007.
With a previously enacted Drought Contingency Plan and an additional emergency commitment that Arizona made with California and Nevada last winter, the state’s total reductions in 2022 total about 800,000 acre-feet, or more than a quarter of the state’s Colorado River allocation, according to CAP.
When disappointing runoff from Rocky Mountain snowpack started flowing toward reservoirs this spring and early summer, the Bureau of Reclamation said it would require more, at least 2 million and maybe 4 million acre-feet from all users in the watershed. That set off a scramble among Arizona and its neighbors to find more water.
Sharon Megdal, director of the University of Arizona’s Water Resources Research Center, said the numbers don’t work if all of the states aren’t involved.
“Even if CAP and the cities were totally cut off, that wouldn’t add up to 4 million acre-feet,” she said. Cutting water use should be discussed and agreed to by all sectors and states, including the Upper Basin. “Nobody will come out of this unscathed.”
Residential water users are likely to escape the effects because most cities deliver water from a mix of sources. Phoenix implemented its drought management plan June 6 when it issued a Stage 1 water alert, asking residents to voluntarily conserve water use. Although the Colorado River provides about 40% of the city’s water, residential water users are unlikely to experience any cuts at this time.
But one major water stakeholder said Tuesday it had reassessed its position. The Gila River Indian Community cited a lack of progress among the states in its decision to stop contributing water to help shore up Lake Mead’s water levels.
Gila River Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis said Tuesday the tribe would go another direction.
“The community has been shocked and disappointed to see the complete lack of progress in reaching the kind of cooperative basin-wide plan necessary to save the Colorado River system,” Lewis said. The tribe reevaluated its strategy and will instead return to storing water underground.
The Colorado River Indian Tribes contributed more than 200,000 acre-feet and fallowed farmland. The tribe said its actions raised Lake Mead’s level by 3 feet. The 4,270-member tribe plans to up its contribution in 2023 and to develop more ways to use less water, according to a statement.
“We recognize that the decades-long drought has reduced the water availability for all of us in the basin,” said CRIT Chairwoman Amelia Flores. “Our ancestors lived through droughts and floods before the settlers arrived and built the dams on the Colorado River. We are a resilient people at CRIT and bring this attitude to the way we live and to our efforts to protect the life of the river that is our namesake.”
Planners want more certainty
The Imperial Irrigation District, which holds 2.6 million acre-feet of Colorado River rights, issued a statement seeking more details from federal officials in conservation and reservoir operations at Lake Mead.
The Colorado River is the Imperial Valley’s only water source, according to the district. Its 116,000 acres of irrigated lands produce much of the nation’s vegetables during the winter months. One of the district’s big concerns is keeping the nearby Salton Sea from declining further while protecting their farms.
“By adopting this plan, we’re providing a means for Imperial Valley growers to be able to continue their work to meet the nation’s food supply needs, within IID’s available water supply, while supporting the river,” said James C. Hanks, the district’s board president.
The two major Arizona water agencies argued that other states must do their part in preserving the river.
“We can’t do this alone without California,” said Buschatzke. He said the Upper Basin plan is in its early stages with few details.
The seven basin states and tribes are negotiating new water management guidelines to replace the current guidelines, which expire at the end of 2025.
Cooke, the CAP general manager, said any discussion among basin states to take further reductions should take into account current reductions.
“We’re taking an almost 600,000 acre-feet cut, Nevada is losing 25,000 acre-feet and Mexico is taking a 100,000 acre-feet cut, but California is taking none,” he said. “We’re willing to do our part, but we can’t continue to be the ones who do the most.”
The two state officials said they want to see more long-term planning. They want planners looking at 2024 and beyond. Cooke said he hopes the 2023 plan in progress can have more durable elements so they don’t have to start at zero in subsequent years.
Buschatzke gave Reclamation a grade of “incomplete” in its plans. Then-Interior Secretary Gale Norton had to give the states a nudge, a “kick in the pants,” to complete a plan in the mid-2000s, he said.
Nevada: Take concrete steps
U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., agreed with state water officials.
“As the West continues experiencing historic drought, Arizona has led the way identifying short and long term solutions while shouldering a disproportionate share of this crisis,” she said.
Sinema created a water advisory council earlier this month to discuss how to expend the $4 billion earmarked for drought and water programs.
U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., said in a letter to Interior Secretary Deb Haaland that the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law also contained funding to support voluntary reductions.
Megdal, of the UA, said that the new funding is welcome; however, she said, nothing she learned about the new measures means the pressure is off. “We all need to work together.”
The Southern Nevada Water Authority, which oversees water for metropolitan Las Vegas, echoed the comments made by Arizona officials.
“The Colorado River cannot provide enough water for the current level of use,” said John Entsminger, the authority’s general manager. “The magnitude of the problem is so large that every single water user in every single sector must contribute solutions to this problem regardless of the priority system.”
Entsminger suggested several actions, including eliminating wasteful and antiquated water use, and eliminating lawns. In June 2021, Nevada passed legislation that prohibits non-functional grass irrigated by Colorado River water. That covers about one-third of southern Nevada lawns.
U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Ariz., also expressed disappointment that the Interior Department had fallen short in its announcement.
“The federal government has failed to offer a plan that requires all states to make the cuts necessary to save the Colorado from system collapse,” Stanton said. “Today’s announcement merely kicks the can down the road and risks turning this crisis into catastrophe.”
Kelly also called for decisive action to develop long-term solutions to mitigating drought on the Colorado River, saying this “must be an urgent priority for the Department.”
One water activist called out a “vague” plan and asked what steps the bureau would take next if the seven basin states can’t or don’t reduce water usage.
“If you were hoping for security and knowing exactly what’s going to happen, Reclamation’s ‘plan’ doesn’t change much of anything,” said Gary Wockner, director of the environmental group Save the Colorado.
The group also proposed a possible solution to the issue, one that environmentalists have discussed for years: “We encourage Reclamation to focus quickly on how to drain Lake Powell and bypass Glen Canyon Dam because it is the weight that is driving this crisis and dragging the whole system down.”
Republic reporter Brandon Loomis contributed to this article.
Debra Krol reports on Indigenous communities at the confluence of climate, culture and commerce in Arizona and the Intermountain West.
Coverage of Indigenous issues at the intersection of climate, culture and commerce is supported by the Catena Foundation.
Map shows ‘extreme heat belt’ projected to cover a quarter of the US in 30 years, where temperatures would breach 125 degrees Fahrenheit
Morgan McFall-Johnsen – August 16, 2022
The US counties where First Street Foundation expects temperatures to exceed 125 degrees Fahrenheit at least one day in 2053.First Street Foundation
An “extreme heat belt” may form in the US by 2053, an analysis from First Street Foundation predicts.
The report used satellite data to model heat risk at the property level for the next 30 years.
Predictive maps show that 107 million Americans could see temperatures above 125 degrees Fahrenheit.
The heat waves scorching the US this summer may just be the beginning of an extreme heat belt forming across the country.
“If people think this was hot — this is going to be one of the better summers of the rest of their lives,” Matthew Eby, CEO of the climate-risk research nonprofit First Street Foundation, told Insider.
The foundation published a “Hazardous Heat” report on Monday, using a peer-reviewed model to assess six years of US government satellite data and predict future risk of extreme heat by property. Its conclusions align with scientists’ warnings that extreme heat will become more common, more extreme, and longer-lasting in the coming decades.
Next year, the report projects that 8 million Americans face the prospect of sweltering in at least 125 degrees Fahrenheit for at least one day. By 2053, that would rise to 107 million Americans — 13 times more people in just 30 years, according to the report.
That’s about one-third of the current population, covering one-quarter of the US land area, as shown in the map below.
Counties where at least one day is expected to breach 125 degrees Fahrenheit in 2023 (left) and 2053 (right).First Street Foundation
The majority of that extreme heat is expected in the center of the country, from the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast up through Chicago — an area that First Street Foundation is calling the “extreme heat belt.” Significant portions of the southwest and southeast are also likely to have more than one day above 125 degrees Fahrenheit in 2053, according to the report.
Gabe DeBay, Medical Services Officer with the Shoreline Fire Department, checks the blood pressure of a homeless man at a tent encampment during the hottest part of the day on July 26, 2022 in Shoreline, Washington.David Ryder/Getty Images
At such high temperatures, the National Weather Service warns that risk of heat stroke is high. Infrastructure often fails at such high temperatures, too. Roads buckle, train tracks bend and can cause derailing, and airport tarmacs can melt and prevent takeoff. Sometimes the power even goes out.
More hot days and more heat waves
Days that breach 125 degrees Fahrenheit aren’t the only ones to worry about. Even temperatures above 100 degrees can be dangerous. In another map, below, the report projects more days above 100 degrees across the southern half of the country.
Circles represent days above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in 2023 (left) and 2053 (right). Darker colors indicate a greater number of days, while the sizes of the circles represent the number of properties impacted.First Street Foundation
The extreme heat of the summer so far in 2020 lines up with many of the locations where First Street Foundation expects the most heat in years to come, Eby said.
For example, as the map below shows, the report projects more heat waves across the country, with significantly increased risk in northern areas including the Pacific Northwest, and other regions that aren’t historically accustomed to extreme heat.
The county-by-county probability of a heat wave — three consecutive days above the 98th percentile for the local area — in 2023 (left) and 2053 (right).First Street Foundation
The projections in this report are conservative, since it assumed a future scenario where humans drastically cut the greenhouse-gas emissions that are driving climate change and increasing global temperatures.
If the world doesn’t cut emissions soon — particularly through a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy — the future of extreme heat could look even worse than the maps in this report.
“If anything, our undercuts or our underrepresentation of these heat impacts will be noticed in 30 years,” Eby said.
Even if humans stop emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, some heating is locked in by the gases we’ve already added to the atmosphere. To protect life, infrastructure, and property, Eby said, individuals and companies and governments have to prepare for more extreme heat in the future.
“Our hope is that this data can inform everyone from the individual, to commercial users to state, local and federal governments, which are all users of our data,” he said.
Their data is publicly available on riskfactor.com, where you can check past data, as well as current and future risks for individual properties.
Why the Eastern Kentucky flood was no natural disaster. Let’s call it what it is
Charles Calhoun – August 16, 2022
It’s been two weeks since the historic and deadly flooding event in central Appalachia left 39 people dead and countless homes, businesses and lives destroyed. Naturally, narratives around this disaster have run amuck with some going so far as to name the very people dealing with it as the harbingers of their own destruction. And while this contributor will address that narrative below, there is another narrative that needs clarifying: The flood of July 28, 2022 was not a natural disaster.To imply this flood, along with so many other weather-borne catastrophes plaguing our world, is a natural disaster is to say three things: We don’t know why it happened, we don’t know how it happened and we don’t know how to prevent the next one. But we do know the answers to these questions. We’ve known them for some time. A combination of unfettered capitalism, environmental degradation through extraction economies and government indifference or plain inaction have borne a land in these hills ripe for weather related disasters and left behind communities with little to no defenses against them.
This disaster was man made. Strip mining and mountaintop removal reengineered the land and left communities and towns towards the valley floor exposed to record levels of storm runoff. Then the coal companies left and government officials let them offload their bonds tied to abandoned strip mining operations and their promise to clean up their mess. Logging companies also helped, clear cutting hillsides of trees capable of absorbing large amounts of moisture and holding the ground in place and leaving behind fields of kudzu, an invasive plant ill-suited for the job of mountain integrity. Throw in increased greenhouse gas emissions from the global industrialization of the 20th century and you have all the ingredients needed for continued and more frequent catastrophes.
This disaster is not the fault of those experiencing it. I consider myself an acquaintance of liberals and progressives and strive to abide no hate in the communities I live and work in. But to see folks of the same bent implying the assumed votes of the affected region in 2016 and 2020 and earlier are the reason why this man-made disaster has left them devastated is childish, infuriating and embarrassing.
To these same critical thinkers, I would ask: Will you say the same when the next disaster affects your democratic bulwark (i.e. Chicago, LA, Austin)? Did we not decry Sodom and Gomorrah references from conservatives after Hurricane Katrina? This is dangerously dualistic, incredibly callous and easily exploitable. We can’t be voices addressing climate change and in the same breath fall prey to such unscientific claims.
The science is clear
Finally, the next disaster is coming. The science is clear on this. The warmer our world becomes due to greenhouse gas buildup and environmental degradation, the more moisture will be absorbed into storms and the more volatile they will be, bringing prolonged rains and stronger winds. But when our government let the capitalists destroy these lands for profit and then let them off the hook for repairing them before they left, all while refusing any considerable legislation on addressing climate change, they left these communities vulnerable.
Without serious investments into repairing the land, rebuilding and refortifying infrastructure and providing those affected with free sturdy homes to replace the ones they lost, these man-made disasters will compound one after the other and the most vulnerable amongst us will suffer the consequences.
Charles Calhoun is a member of the Appalachian diaspora living in Columbia, SC but working remotely for an NPO in SEKY. He was present on the day of the floods.
Drought isn’t just a Western U.S. problem. A severe shortage has hit the Northeast, too
Jennifer McDermott – August 15, 2022
Hay farmer Milan Adams stands in a dry field in Exeter, R.I., on Tuesday. (Steven Senne / Associated Press)
Vermont farmer Brian Kemp is used to seeing the pastures at Mountain Meadows Farm grow more slowly in the hot late summer, but this year the grass is at a standstill.
That’s “very nerve-racking” when you’re grazing 600 to 700 cattle, said Kemp, who manages an organic beef farm in Sudbury, Vt. He describes the weather lately as inconsistent, which he attributes to a changing climate.
“I don’t think there is any normal anymore,” Kemp said.
The effects of climate change have been felt throughout the northeastern U.S. with rising sea levels, heavy precipitation and storm surges causing flooding and coastal erosion. But this summer has brought another extreme: a severe drought that is making lawns crispy and has farmers begging for steady rain. The heavy, short rainfall brought by the occasional thunderstorm tends to run off, not soak into the ground.
Water supplies are low or dry, and many communities are restricting nonessential outdoor water use. Fire departments are combating more brush fires, and crops are growing poorly.
Providence, R.I., had less than half an inch of rainfall during the third-driest July on record, and Boston had 0.6 of an inch in its fourth-driest July on record, according to the National Weather Service office in Norton, Mass. Rhode Island’s governor issued a statewide drought advisory Tuesday with recommendations to reduce water use. The north end of the Hoppin Hill Reservoir in Massachusetts is dry, forcing local water restrictions.
Officials in Maine said drought conditions began there in 2020, with occasional improvements in areas since. In Auburn, Maine, local firefighters helped a dairy farmer fill a water tank for his cows when his well went too low in late July and temperatures hit 90. About 50 dry wells have been reported to state authorities since 2021, according to the state’s dry-well survey.
The continuing trend toward drier summers in the Northeast can certainly be attributed to the impact of climate change, since warmer temperatures lead to greater evaporation and drying of soils, climate scientist Michael Mann said. But, he said, the dry weather can be punctuated by extreme rainfall events since a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which means that when conditions are conducive to rainfall, there’s more of it in short bursts.
Mann said there’s evidence shown by his research at Penn State University that climate change is leading to a “stuck jet stream” pattern. That means huge tentacles of the jet stream, or air current, get stuck in place, locking in extreme weather events that can alternately be associated with extreme heat and drought in one location and extreme rainfall in another, a pattern that has played out this summer with the heat and drought in the Northeast and extreme flooding in parts of the Midwest, Mann added.
Most of New England is experiencing drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor issued a new map Thursday that shows areas of eastern Massachusetts outside Cape Cod and much of southern and eastern Rhode Island now in extreme, instead of severe, drought.
New England has experienced severe summer droughts before, but experts say it is unusual to have droughts in fairly quick succession since 2016. Massachusetts experienced droughts in 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021 and 2022, which is very likely due to climate change, said Vandana Rao, director of water policy in Massachusetts.
“We hope this is maybe one period of peaking of drought and we get back to many more years of normal precipitation,” she said. “But it could just be the beginning of a longer trend.”
Rao and other water experts in New England expect the current drought to last for several more months.
“I think we’re probably going to be in this for a while and it’s going to take a lot,” said Ted Diers, assistant director of the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services water division. “What we really are hoping for is a wet fall followed by a very snowy winter to really recharge the aquifers and the groundwater.”
Rhode Island’s principal forest ranger, Ben Arnold, is worried about the drought extending into the fall. That’s when people do more yard work, burn brush, use fireplaces and spend time in the woods, increasing the risk of forest fires. The fires this summer have been relatively small, but it takes a lot of time and effort to extinguish them because they are burning into the dry ground, Arnold said.
Hay farmer Milan Adams said one of the fields he’s tilling in Exeter, R.I., is powder a foot down. In prior years it rained in the spring. This year, he said, the dryness started in March, and April was so dry he was nervous about his first cut of hay.
“The height of the hay was there, but there was no volume to it. From there, we got a little bit of rain in the beginning of May that kind of shot it up,” he said. “We haven’t seen anything since.”
Farmers are fighting more than the drought: Inflation is driving up the cost of everything, including diesel, equipment parts, fertilizer and pesticides, Adams added.
“It’s all through the roof right now,” he said. “This is just throwing salt on a wound.”
The yield and quality of hay is down in Vermont, too, which means there won’t be as much for cows in the winter, said Vermont Agriculture Secretary Anson Tebbetts. The state has roughly 600 dairy farms, a $2-billion-per-year industry. Like Adams, Tebbetts said inflation is driving up prices, which will hurt the farmers who will have to buy feed.
Kemp, the president of the Champlain Valley Farmer Coalition, is thankful to have supplemental feed from last year, but he knows other farmers who don’t have land to put together a reserve and aren’t well-stocked. The coalition is trying to help farmers evolve and learn new practices. They added “climate-smart farming” to their mission statement in the spring.
“Farming is challenging,” Kemp said, “and it’s becoming even more challenging as climate change takes place.”
Quarter of U.S. Could Be in ‘Extreme Heat Belt’ by 2053, According to Climate Crisis Research
Abigail Adams – August 15, 2022
Extreme Heat
Mario Tama/Getty
Newly released climate data suggests a quarter of the United States’ land could experience temperatures exceeding 125 degrees Fahrenheit in just 30 years.
According to a Monday press release from the First Street Foundation, an extreme heat model shows more than 1,000 counties are expected to experience the high temperatures by 2053.
These counties are currently home to 107.6 million Americans who, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, make up about a third of the country’s population.
The foundation is also warning of what it calls an “extreme heat belt,” which would stretch from the Northern Texas and Louisiana borders to Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.
“We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125°F and the results will be dire,” Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation, said in the press release.
Extreme Heat
First Street Foundation A map showing areas at risk
Next year, 50 counties in the United States are expected to experience temperatures above 125 degrees Fahrenheit, the foundation said. More than 8 million residents currently live in those areas.
That number is expected to explode over the next three decades, especially in central states “where there are no coastal influences to mitigate extreme temperatures,” according to an article also published Monday by First Street Foundation.
Counties in Texas, California, Arizona and Florida are expected to see the largest number of dangerously hot days, per the article.
Some southern states could see more than 70 straight days of a heat index over 100 degrees, The Washington Post reported.
However, Miami-Dade County is projected to experience “the most severe shift in local temperatures” in the coming years, with an estimated 91 days of a heat index over 100 degrees by 2053, the Post noted.
Extreme Heat
David McNew/Getty
Heat indixes between 103 and 124 degrees are considered dangerous, and can lead to heat cramps, heat exhaustion or heat stroke “with prolonged exposure” to the conditions, according to the National Weather Service.
Ringing in your ears? About 750 million people have this perplexing condition, study says
Christine Fernando – August 15, 2022
Tinnitus, commonly described as a ringing in the ears, may affect about 750 million people around the world, according to new research based on about 50 years of data.
Researchers estimate about 14% of adults experience tinnitus, and 2% experience a severe form of it. The prevalence also appears to increase with age: Tinnitus is reported in 10% of adults ages 18 to 44, 14% of adults ages 45 to 64, and 24% of those 65 and older.
“This study suggests that the global burden of tinnitus is large, similar to migraine and pain, and the lack of effective treatment options justifies a major investment in research in this area,” researchers wrote.
What is tinnitus?
While tinnitus is commonly known as a ringing sound in the ears, it can take many other forms, including buzzing, hissing, whistling, swooshing and clicking noises, according to the American Tinnitus Association (ATA). In rare cases, it can sound like music.
The condition can either be temporary or chronic, the ATA said. It’s not a disease in itself but is a symptom of other underlying health conditions, according to the association.
What causes tinnitus?
In most cases, tinnitus is a reaction in the brain to damage in the ear or auditory system, according to the ATA. However, the association says, tinnitus can also be a symptom of roughly 200 health problems, including hearing loss, obstructions in the middle ear, and head and neck trauma.
Even something as simple as a piece of earwax blocking the ear canal can cause tinnitus, the NIDCD said. The condition may also be the first sign of hearing loss in older adults or can be a side effect of more than 200 different medications.
Still, some people can develop tinnitus for no obvious reason, the institute said.
“Scientists still haven’t agreed upon what happens in the brain to create the illusion of sound when there is none,” the institute said.
Tinnitus usually isn’t a sign of a serious health problem, according to the NIDCD. But if it’s loud and persistent, it can cause memory and concentration problems, fatigue, anxiety and depression.
“For some, tinnitus can be a source of real mental and emotional anguish,” the institute said.
The ATA also said chronic tinnitus can be a debilitating condition that can interfere with a person’s ability to work and socialize.
Who is most at risk?
People at higher risk for tinnitus include older people, active military personnel or veterans, people who work in loud environments, and musicians, according to the ATA.
Military personnel can develop tinnitus when exposed to bomb blasts, and tinnitus is among the most common service-related disabilities for veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan, according to the NIDCD.
Is there a cure for tinnitus?
There is “no scientifically validated cure” for most forms of tinnitus, the ATA said. But treatment options can reduce the effects and help people live more comfortably.
The NIDCD recommends going to a primary care doctor to check if anything like ear wax is blocking the ear canal.
If a primary care doctor cannot find the condition that may be causing tinnitus, the physician may refer a patient to a otolaryngologist who specializes in the ear, nose and throat.
Treatments that may help tinnitus include hearing aids, counseling and wearable sound generators, the NIDCD said. Limiting exposure to loud noise also can help prevent tinnitus from worsening.
Tensions grow over lack of a water deal for the shrinking Colorado River
Ian James – August 15, 2022
Visitors walk on Hoover Dam high above Lake Mead. The reservoir near Las Vegas has shrunk during 23 years of drought intensified by climate change. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)
Two months ago, federal officials took the unprecedented step of telling the seven states that depend on Colorado River water to prepare for emergency cuts next year to prevent reservoirs from dropping to dangerously low levels.
The states and managers of affected water agencies were told to come up with plans to reduce water use drastically, by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet, by mid-August. After weeks of negotiations, which some participants say have at times grown tense and acrimonious, the parties have yet to reach an agreement.
The absence of a deal now raises the risk that the Colorado River crisis — brought on by chronic overuse and the West’s drying climate — could spiral into a legal morass.
Interior Department officials have warned they are prepared to impose cuts if necessary to protect reservoir levels. Managers of water agencies say they have been discussing proposals and will continue to negotiate in hopes of securing enough reductions to meet the Biden administration’s demands, which would mean decreasing the total amount of water diverted by roughly 15% to 30%.
But some observers worry the talks could fail, saying they see growing potential for federal intervention, lawsuits and court battles.
“There are a lot of different interests at loggerheads. And there’s a lot to overcome, and there’s a lot of animosity,” said Kyle Roerink, executive director of the Great Basin Water Network.
The latest round of closed-door talks occurred Thursday in Denver. Participants said they wouldn’t publicly discuss the offers of water reductions made, but they acknowledged those offers have amounted to far less than 2 million acre-feet. For comparison, the total annual water use of Los Angeles is nearly 500,000 acre-feet.
Those involved in the negotiations say there have been difficult discussions among the states, and among urban and agricultural water districts. There have also been growing tensions between the states of the river’s Lower Basin — California, Arizona and Nevada — and those of the Upper Basin — Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah.
Roerink said that if the regional tensions and dividing lines continue and deepen alongside more dry winters, the Colorado River Basin seems headed for conflicts.
“It’s going to be a mess,” Roerink said. “I don’t see how we ever get over some of what I believe are irreconcilable differences among the states.”
The federal Bureau of Reclamation is scheduled to hold a news conference Tuesday to present the government’s latest projections of reservoir levels, which will dictate water cuts for the Lower Basin states under a previous 2019 deal. Lake Mead and Lake Powell have fallen to record-low levels, now nearly three-fourths empty, and are projected to continue dropping.
Reclamation officials are expected to give an update on the proposals for water cuts that have been discussed. They haven’t said how they will respond to the lack of an agreement among the states.
The federal government’s call for urgent action came in a congressional hearing on June 14, when Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton announced that cuts of 2 million to 4 million acre-feet will be needed in 2023 to address declining reservoir levels. She warned that the bureau has the authority to “act unilaterally to protect the system.”
Touton called for negotiating a plan for the reductions within 60 days, a schedule that hasn’t been achieved.
The Upper Basin states have looked to the Lower Basin states, which use more water, to contribute much of the reductions. In a July 18 letter to Touton, Charles Cullom, executive director of the Upper Colorado River Commission, said the four upper states have “limited” options available to protect reservoir levels.
Cullom wrote that “previous drought response actions are depleting upstream storage by 661,000 acre-feet,” and that the four states’ water users “already suffer chronic shortages under current conditions.”
Cullom offered a plan with various steps in the Upper Basin but said “additional efforts to protect critical reservoir elevations must include significant actions focused downstream.”
One of the entities that many water managers are looking to for major contributions is the Imperial Irrigation District, which supplies farmlands in California’s Imperial Valley and controls the single largest share of Colorado River water.
IID board member J.B. Hamby said California’s water districts have made significant proposals laying out “where we think we can be in a very short period of time.” He declined to discuss how much water those proposals would conserve and leave in Lake Mead.
“We’re seeing different approaches from other states,” Hamby said. “The Upper Basin is not contributing anything firm whatsoever at this point, and things are still in flux with Arizona and Nevada.”
Even as the river is in a crisis that demands contributions from across the region, Hamby said, it remains “a ways from any agreements being inked.”
“Significant contributions are not really forthcoming at this time, which is unfortunate, because that’s really what’s needed in order to prevent the system from completely crashing,” Hamby said.
He said it’s especially critical to ensure Lake Mead doesn’t decline to “dead pool” levels, at which water would no longer pass through Hoover Dam to Arizona, California and Mexico.
“Everybody across the board needs to take a serious look at making contributions that, while not comfortable, are what’s necessary,” Hamby said. “Everybody needs to commit to a significant sacrifice in order to avoid having nothing at all.”
In a letter to Interior Department officials on Monday, John Entsminger, general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, said that “despite the obvious urgency of the situation, the last 62 days produced exactly nothing in terms of meaningful collective action to help forestall the looming crisis.”
Entsminger also lamented the “absence of political will to forge collective action,” saying that missing the federal government’s deadline is “doing a disservice” to everyone who relies on the Colorado River. He criticized some water users for focusing on the prices that would be paid for each acre-foot of conserved water to growers and other water users.
“The unreasonable expectations of water users, including the prices and drought profiteering proposals, only further divide common goals and interests,” Entsminger wrote.
The Colorado River has long been severely overallocated. For decades, so much water has been diverted to supply farms and cities that the river’s delta in Mexico has dried up, leaving only remnants of its once-vast wetlands.
Since 2000, the flow of the river has shrunk dramatically during a “megadrought” that research shows is being intensified by global warming.
Even years before the current shortage, scientists and others repeatedly alerted public officials that the overuse of the river combined with the effects of climate change would probably drain the reservoirs to perilously low levels. In recent years, researchers have warned that while dry and wet cycles will continue, the West is undergoing climate-driven aridification and will have to permanently adapt to drier conditions.
Some experts, such as former Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt, have said it’s time to revamp the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which divided the river among the states, because it allocated much more water than is available.
Thorny negotiations lie ahead over the next three years, when the states are due to negotiate rules for managing shortages after 2026, when the current rules expire.
For now, the immediate task facing water management officials is to find ways to rapidly reduce water use.
Congress’ newly passed Inflation Reduction Act included $4 billion to help address the Colorado River’s shortfall.
Much of that money is expected to be used to pay farmers and others to voluntarily use less water. Under one proposal offered by Arizona farmers, participating growers would forgo one acre-foot of water for each acre of farmland, generating roughly 925,000 acre-feet of savings.
Funds will also be available for environmental projects, such as controlling dust and restoring habitat around the shrinking Salton Sea, which is fed by agricultural runoff in the Imperial Valley. IID officials have pointed out that water reductions will hasten the shrinking of the Salton Sea, where the retreating shorelines are already releasing lung-damaging dust, and they have demanded protection of the lake as part of any deal.
Henry Martinez, the Imperial Irrigation District’s general manager, said the talks have gone over various proposals aimed at moving toward the Bureau of Reclamation’s targets.
“It’s going to require quite a bit of cooperation for everybody to achieve that goal,” Martinez said, describing the talks as being on “unsure ground at this point.”
“We see that California has a large contribution to make,” Martinez said, but those numbers “will have to be firmed up with all the California participants and then submitted to the bureau for consideration.”
Federal officials have also been negotiating separately with Mexico.
Another major player in the talks is the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which supplies drinking water for 19 million people. Bill Hasencamp, the MWD’s manager of Colorado River resources, said he’s hopeful the negotiations will eventually lead to a plan that meets the federal government’s goals, “maybe not next week, but at some point later this year.”
Last week, the MWD’s board held a three-hour meeting at which the district’s staff discussed the need to reduce the region’s reliance on the Colorado River.
“We are in discussions with our board about the possibility of extending mandatory conservation throughout Southern California,” Hasencamp said. The district has already ordered restrictions on outdoor watering in areas that depend on severely limited supplies from the State Water Project, which brings water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.
How soon the district might adopt these additional conservation measures has yet to be decided, Hasencamp said. And once a plan is developed, he said, each member city and local water district would determine how to achieve the necessary reductions in 2023.
The negotiations that are happening now, Hasencamp said, are one step in a multiyear process of determining how the western United States lives with less water from the Colorado River. He said he hopes the states agree on a plan because the alternative would be worse.
“If the federal government does have to take unilateral action, it will likely lead to litigation, which will make it even harder to develop new guidelines for the Colorado River. So that’s a big risk,” Hasencamp said. “I think everyone would agree that a consensus-based plan is better than either the courts or the federal government taking action to determine our future.”
More river water tapped to meet Tampa Bay’s future thirst
C.T. Bowen, Tampa Bay Times – August15, 2022
CLEARWATER — New tap water for the Tampa Bay region will come from an old source.
On Monday, the board of Tampa Bay Water — the region’s wholesale water supplier — voted unanimously to expand an existing plant in Hillsborough County to treat more water drawn from the Hillsborough and Alafia rivers and the Tampa Bypass Canal.
The vote was the culmination of a nearly four year-long study on how to meet future water demands for residents and businesses in Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties and the cities of Tampa, St. Petersburg and New Port Richey.
The expanded plant has a projected construction cost of $90.7 million and will increase the water supply as much as 12 million gallons each day. So-called surface water treatment accounted for 43% of the 189 million gallons of water the utility delivered daily during July.
The board picked the expanded plant over more costly alternatives. Building a new surface water treatment facility near the C.W. “Bill” Young Regional Reservoir in eastern Hillsborough carried a price tag of $145.6 million and expanding the desalination plant in Apollo Beach had a projected expense of $310 million.
The expanded surface water plant, west of North Falkenburg Road, is expected to be completed by the end of 2028.
Pinellas County Commissioner Dave Eggers noted the expansion helps Tampa Bay Water move “a little bit, not much, but a little bit” away from its reliance on groundwater.
“I think it’s healthy,” Eggers said.
Tampa Bay Water is required to update its master water plan every five years and it already is beginning the revision to provide new water sources for 2033 and beyond. Both the expanded desalination plant and a new surface water treatment facility will be considered again as part of the update, said Maribel Medina, the utility’s senior engineering manager.
Hillsborough County Commissioner Harry Cohen said the utility needed to diversify its portfolio of future water sources since expanding an existing treatment plant meant Tampa Bay Water was “doubling down on one.”
“I think that as we do that (updating the future plan) we’ve got to go a little outside the box and start being a little more bold,” Cohen said. “If we’re going to be conservative in our approach this time around, which I think we are, I think we really need to look at new technology, and new sources in the next round.”
