The Augusta Chronicle
Barbarossa, Pearl Harbor and Ukraine are military failures of the autocrats
Perry Smith is a retired Air Force major general who lives in Augusta.
When I conduct workshops on executive leadership, I emphasize the importance of strategic thinking and planning. In the past one hundred years, there have been three colossal mistakes of strategy.
These failures were made by three national leaders. Hitler, Tojo and Putin. They had three characteristics in common. All three were autocrats. They surrounded themselves with lackeys. Their study and understanding of history and grand strategy were both limited and flawed. At the end of this article, I will identify American leaders who were excellent strategists.
As someone who has studied and taught international relations for more than fifty years, I have been fascinated with the behavior of autocrats. My first interest was in Benito Mussolini. I lived in Italy immediately after World War II. I can remember quite vividly the newspaper picture of Mussolini hanging upside down in a square in Milan – with the headline: FINITO BENITO. He was the perfect example of a psychopath in his rhetoric, persona and actions.
More from Perry Smith: A strategic analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Next, I studied Adolph Hitler. I lived in Germany in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. I got to know the German people quite well in the Coblenz, Bitburg and Monchengladbach areas of Germany. Hitler was not only a psychopath, but he was also a brilliant public speaker. His keen understanding of the German political culture in the aftermath of World War I allowed him, through the democratic process, to reach very high office. Folks often forget that Hitler did not become the Chancellor of Germany by conducting a coup.
Hitler the autocrat evolved into Hitler the dictator. He created, during the 1930s, a remarkably efficient totalitarian state. Hitler’s gravest error was the Invasion of Soviet Russia in June 1941. Operation Barbarossa was flawed in all three levels of warfare: tactical, operational and strategic. Russia had collapsed in World War I so Hitler felt that throwing 200 German divisions in the attack would lead to Soviet surrender before winter closed in.
Like Hitler, Tojo learned the wrong lessons from history. Japan had great success with the war against China in the 1890s and with the war with Russia in 1905. Short wars were followed by favorable peace treaties which led to more and more territory under the Japanese empire. A short war with America followed by a favorable peace treaty was, to Tojo and some of his cronies, a likely outcome. If Tojo had strong subordinates at his elbow, this huge mistake may have been avoided. Admiral Yamamoto was strong but not strong enough
Putin has made a similar strategic mistake – misreading history. Russia had military success in Chechnya (1999-2009), in Georgia (2008), in Crimea (2014) and in Syria (2015). Attacking Ukraine with the massive use of Russian ground and air power may have seemed to Putin like a no-brainer. Putin probably anticipated a quick victory followed by a peace treaty that would guarantee that Ukraine would become a vassal state – much like Belarus today. Also, like Hitler and Tojo, Putin vastly underestimated the enemy he had created.
Putin now faces some huge problems. The 140 million people of Russia have had a taste, since 1991, of free speech, free enterprise and free assembly. Today, Russians are angry that Putin is destroying the Russian economy and their way of life. Putin has almost no friends and even his nominal ally, China, has become wary of this his behavior and actions.
This past week I spoke to 100 members of the Rotary Club of Augusta. I had been invited months earlier to address Pearl Harbor and what it was like to witness the Dec. 7, 1941 attack as a small child. I presented a strategic analysis of the Japanese attack and compared the calculus of decision making in Tokyo in 1941 with the decision-making in Moscow in 2022.
In answer to a question, I predicted that Ukraine would win the war and Putin would be removed from power. With enormous support from the West, Ukraine would rebuild rather quickly.
Toward the end of the session with the Rotarians, I recommended that they lend support to the Ukrainian people by sending a check to World Vision and to add a zero or two to their normal charitable contribution. I also suggested wearing blue and yellow clothing. I forgot to mention that Saint Paul’s Church, Augusta, had contributed $6,000 via the Episcopal Relief and Development Fund.
So, who were the best American grand strategists? George Marshall, Colin Powell and Brent Scowcroft. The poor ones were Robert McNamara and Donald Rumsfeld.
Let me end this article on a positive note. With Putin gone, the Chinese more cautious, NATO more unified, and COVID-19 greatly diminished, the future appears bright – thank goodness. Incidentally. our home has, in the front yard, the American flag and the blue and yellow flag of Ukraine.