Could the Russian invasion spark a Ukrainian insurgence?

Yahoo! News

Could the Russian invasion spark a Ukrainian insurgence?

Niamh Cavanagh and Sam Matthews – March 31, 2022

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds into its sixth week, experts and Western intelligence agencies are continuing to sketch out potential endgames for the conflict.

It’s possible that a ceasefire could emerge, and the Russian military, facing surprisingly fierce Ukrainian resistance, would simply back off its initial war aim of regime change in Kyiv and control over the country’s future. But recent history suggests the solution won’t be that simple.

Russia could also exploit its far larger military might and continue its advance into Ukraine, particularly in the east, where it now appears to be focused. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin may continue to face heavy losses, the sheer size of his army sets up the possibility of the Kremlin occupying swaths of Ukrainian territory and facing a protracted and bloody insurgence.

“Insurgency is different from regular warfare in that it’s usually troops that are not in a formalized military structure,” Emily Harding, the deputy director and senior fellow of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained to Yahoo News.

An insurgence is most likely to happen, Harding believes, if Russian soldiers occupy a significant number of Ukrainian territories in the coming months or even years. But if the Ukrainian population maintains its defiance, supporting a militia effort and harassing Russian troops, Putin may not have enough forces to fully establish control there.

Two tanks loaded with soldiers drive along a road. A Ukrainian flag is displayed on the first tank.
Ukrainian soldiers ride tanks through the town of Trostsyanets, east of Kyiv, on Monday. (Efrem Lukatsky/AP)

“To me, that would be a really critical moment for the way this conflict goes, there’s a numbers game to be played,” Harding said. “If you look at the required ratio [of troops] for occupying territory, it’s a lot higher than you would think. And so the Russians, they just don’t physically have enough Russian soldiers to try to hold much territory in Ukraine.”

But in order to be successful, insurgent militias require both financial and military assistance — likely coming from both the local population and foreign governments opposed to the Russian invasion. (Similar, in fact, to how Moscow has supported an insurgence in Ukraine’s eastern region, furnishing the local armies with weapons and other support.) “In fact, that’s critical to the success of most insurgencies that you have foreign assistance pouring in, both militarily and with people and money,” Harding said.

A soldier stands on a destroyed vehicle.
A Ukrainian soldier stands on a destroyed Russian vehicle in Kharkiv. (Efrem Lukatsky/AP)

For now, Russia is not facing a significant Ukrainian insurgence because its large military has failed to conquer significant Ukrainian territory since launching the invasion last month. Ukraine’s largest cities have thus far repelled Russian troops, whose most significant territorial gains have been in the country’s coastal south.

“We saw the Russians not only meet heavy resistance from the Ukrainians, but we also saw the Russians have real trouble with their logistical tail,” Harding said. “They couldn’t move as quickly as they wanted to through the roadways and through the railways of Ukraine. We joked a lot about how when we were studying the Russian cyber capabilities, we really should have been studying eastern Ukrainian mud.”

But the war is far from over.

“I think people underestimate the extent to which the Russian government is willing to just throw people at the problem,” she said. “They don’t care so much about the health and well-being of their troops. I think people who are assuming that there is a big win to happen here in the near term are probably assuming too much.”

A soldier walks through a destroyed village.
A Ukrainian soldier in the village of Malaya Rohan, in the Kharkiv region, which was recently liberated from Russian forces. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

Russia pulling back to resupply, US says; expect ‘even more suffering’ in Ukraine, NATO chief warns:

USA Today

Russia pulling back to resupply, US says; expect ‘even more suffering’ in Ukraine, NATO chief warns: Live updates

John Bacon, Tom Vanden Brook, Jorge L. Ortiz, Celina Tebor, USA Today March 31, 2022

Russian troops have continued to retreat from Kyiv in the last 24 hours, although the withdrawal remains at about 20% of the force Russian President Vladimir Putin sent to seize the Ukrainian capital, a senior Defense official said Thursday.

The Pentagon believes the Russians are pulling back to get resupplied, not to wind down the war, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to reveal intelligence assessments. As evidence, the official pointed to continued airstrikes and shelling of Kyiv by Russian troops.

President Joe Biden supported that contention later in the day, saying there have been no clear signs the Russians are relenting in their assault around the capital.

The official spoke to reporters hours after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg provided the same assessment in a briefing in Brussels. Stoltenberg also pledged that NATO will supply Ukraine with weapons for its struggle against Russia’s invasion for as long as necessary.

The alliance remains unconvinced that Russia is negotiating in good faith in the peace talks taking place in Istanbul. Russia must be judged on actions, not words, “and it’s obvious that we have seen little willingness from the Russian side to find a political solution,” he said.

“Russia maintains pressure on Kyiv and other cities,” Stoltenberg said. “So we can expect additional offensive actions, bringing even more suffering.”

LATEST MOVEMENT: Mapping and tracking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Latest developments:

►President Joe Biden will order the release of 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next six months from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve in response to a spike in gas prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

►U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield will travel to Moldova and Romania on Saturday to focus on efforts to assist refugees and the overwhelming humanitarian needs created by the war.

►Russia backed off a requirement that European countries pay for natural gas in rubles, allowing payments through a Russian bank that would convert the payments from euros to rubles, Russian state media said. The rubles mandate had been set to begin Friday.

►Nineteen people were found dead under rubble after a rocket attack on a regional administration building in the southern city of Mykolaiv, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported.

►Talks between Ukraine and Russia will resume Friday by video, the head of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arakhamia, said. Ukraine will not sign a peace treaty until Moscow withdraws its troops, he said.

No easing of bombardment in Kyiv

President Joe Biden told reporters Thursday there’s “no clear evidence” that Vladimir Putin is pulling all Russian forces out of Kyiv and that the Russian leader’s next military steps in Ukraine remain unclear.

“There is also evidence that he is beefing up his troops down in the Donbas area,” Biden said, referring to a contested region in eastern Ukraine near the Russian border. “Depending on your view of Putin, I’m a little skeptical. It’s an open question whether he’s actually pulling back or going to say I’m just going to focus on the Donbas and I’m not worried about the rest of the country.”

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that rather than pulling back their assault on the capital city and its surroundings as announced, Russian forces have intensified bombardment of homes, stores, libraries and other civilian sites on the city’s outskirts.

U.S. and British intelligence officials say Russian forces are repositioning and regrouping, not scaling back in and around Kyiv as the Kremlin said.

It’s not true,” Klitschko said in a video address to European Union regional officials translated by Reuters. “The whole night we listened to sirens, to rocket attacks, and we listened to huge explosions east of Kyiv and north of Kyiv. There are immense battles there, people died, still die.”

As Putin clashes with advisers, Russian soldiers rebelling

The impact of a war that’s not going according to plan appears to be taking an increasing toll on Russian forces and their leader. There are growing reports of friction between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his advisers, as well as discontent among the troops.

“He seems to be self-isolated, and there’s some indication that he has fired or put under house arrest some of his advisers,” President Joe Biden said of Putin. “But I don’t want to put too much stock in that at this time because we don’t have that much hard evidence.”

The head of the U.K.’s spy service said it “increasingly looks like Putin has massively misjudged the situation” in Ukraine and that Russian soldiers, short on weapons and morale, are refusing to carry out orders and sabotaging their own equipment.

“And even though we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime,” spy chief Jeremy Fleming said.

A U.S. official who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity said Putin has felt misled by the Russian military, leading to tension between the sides.

Russian troops sickened after being exposed to radiation at Chernobyl site

Russian troops were exposed to “significant doses” of radiation from digging trenches around the Chernobyl nuclear plant and have left the highly contaminated site, Ukraine’s state power company said Thursday.

Energoatom said the Russians had dug in the forest inside the exclusion zone around the now-closed plant, site in 1986 of the world’s worst nuclear disaster. The company did not provide information on the soldiers’ condition.

The troops “panicked at the first sign of illness,” which “showed up very quickly,” and began to prepare to leave, Energoatom said.

Russian forces seized the Chernobyl site early in the invasion that began Feb. 24, raising fears that they would cause damage or disruption that could spread radiation.

Germany: More sanctions needed

Germany’s economy minister says Europe should impose additional sanctions on Russia to encourage an end to what he described as a “barbaric” war in Ukraine. Robert Habeck said he discussed additional measures with French officials Thursday in Berlin.

“The last package doesn’t need to be the final one, it should not be the final one,” he said. Habeck said French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire had identified additional sanctions but did not detail them.

Habeck declined to elaborate on what those points might be. Current sanctions include the freezing of assets held by the Russian central bank in the EU, the exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT banking system and a ban on EU companies exporting high-tech products to Russia.

Zelenskyy asks Australia for armored vehicles

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Australia to increase sanctions against Russia and send him some armored vehicles in a video speech Thursday to the Australian Parliament.

“Most of all we have to keep those who are fighting against this evil armed,” he said. Finance Minister Simon Birmingham did not directly respond to the request in a briefing, saying the government was considering what was practical. He said Australia has already provided missiles and protective gear to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said the war might not have happened if Russia had been punished after Russian-backed separatists shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014. Thirty-eight Australians were among the 298 aboard, all of whom perished.

“The unpunished evil comes back,” Zelenskyy said.

A woman with a child returns to Ukraine from the border crossing in Medyka, southeastern Poland,  on March 31, 2022.
A woman with a child returns to Ukraine from the border crossing in Medyka, southeastern Poland, on March 31, 2022.
Russia calls up 134,500 military conscripts

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Thursday ordering 134,500 new conscripts into the army as part of Russia’s annual spring draft, but the defense ministry said the call-up was unrelated to the war. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the conscripts, ages 18-27, would be dispatched to bases in late May for 3-5 months of training. None will be sent to combat “hot spots,” he said.

The defense ministry acknowledged earlier this month that some conscripts had been taking part in the war, despite Putin saying only professional soldiers and officers had been sent to Ukraine. The Kremlin said Putin ordered military prosecutors to investigate and punish the officials responsible for disobeying his instructions to exclude conscripts.

Red Cross ready for Mariupol evacuation Friday

The International Committee of the Red Cross says its teams are ready to help evacuate civilians from of the besieged city of Mariupol.

“Our team in #Ukraine is on the road right now to be ready to: Facilitate the safe passage of civilians out of #Mariupol tomorrow. And bring aid,” the Red Cross tweeted Thursday. “All parties must agree to the exact terms. This operation is critical. Tens of thousands of lives depend on it.”

The evacuation could begin Friday provided all the parties agree to the terms, route, start time and the duration, the Red Cross said. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Ukraine is sending out several dozen buses to collect civilians from Mariupol after Russia’s military agreed to a local cease-fire from the city to Ukraine-held Zaporizhzhia.

Tech industry impacted by Russian invasion of Ukraine

Sensing the worst two weeks before Russia began invading his homeland, tech entrepreneur Volodymir “Vlad” Panchenko wanted to charter a plane for a month to get as many of his employees and their families out of Kyiv as quickly as possible.

But the co-founder of video game and metaverse marketplace DMarket said his board was giving him heavy pushback because his plan to shuttle workers to the Balkan country of Montenegro would lead to a 20% budget increase.

“None of them supported me. They said I was overreacting,” said Panchenko, who trusted his gut and told them he was executing his contingency plan anyway – regardless of the cost. “I told them that I felt a war was coming and we should leave. And if there isn’t, we’ll spend time in a warm place and still get our work done.”

DMarket and many other tech companies rely on colleagues who live and work in Ukraine, a fast-growing tech hotbed. While known companies such as Google and Microsoft have workers based in Ukraine, many far lesser-known, early- and mid-stage startups globally count on the embattled country’s talent-rich pool of engineers and developers and could be in jeopardy because of the conflict. Read more here.

– Terry Collins

Contributing: Joey Garrison, USA TODAY; The Associated Press

Exclusive-Photos show Russian attacks on Ukraine grain storage -U.S. official

Reuters

Exclusive-Photos show Russian attacks on Ukraine grain storage -U.S. official

Steve Holland and Michelle Nichols – March 31, 2022

WASHINGTON/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – U.S. government images seen by Reuters showed what a U.S. official said was damage to grain storage facilities in eastern Ukraine and was indicative of the severity of Russian attacks that are impacting the global food supply.

The two black-and-white images showed long rectangular buildings in eastern Ukraine, first seen intact in January and then with damaged roofs and what a key calls “impact craters” in March.

The U.S. official, commenting on the unclassified images, said the United States has information that Russian forces are repeatedly damaging grain storage facilities in eastern Ukraine.

“As of late March, at least six grain storage facilities had been damaged as a result of these attacks,” the official said.

The development comes as officials around the world worry about the fallout to the global food supply from the invasion of Ukraine, the world’s fourth largest grain exporter in the 2020/21 season.

“Russia’s reckless damaging of these grain silos is a clear-cut example of how Putin’s war directly affects civilians in Ukraine and threatens food security around the world,” the official said.

“With countries across Africa and the Middle East reliant on Ukrainian wheat exports, the destruction of these food stocks and storage facilities could result in shortages and drive up prices in already vulnerable economies,” the official said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin describes his country’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” that aims to destroy Ukraine’s military infrastructure.

The Biden administration has repeatedly shared its intelligence publicly to put pressure on Putin over his invasion of Ukraine.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, at a U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine on Tuesday, said Russia has bombed at least three civilian ships carrying goods from Black Sea ports to the rest of the world, including one chartered by an agribusiness company.

Sherman said Ukraine had told counterparts that “Russia is actively targeting grain silos and food storage facilities.”

The Black Sea is a major shipping route for grain, oil and oil products. Its waters are shared by Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and Turkey, as well as Ukraine and Russia.

Sherman said the Russian navy is blocking access to Ukraine’s ports, essentially cutting off exports of grain and reportedly preventing approximately 94 ships carrying food for the world market from reaching the Mediterranean.

“It’s no wonder many shippers are now hesitant to send vessels into the Black Sea, even to Russian ports, given the danger posed by Russian forces,” she said.

Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, refuted Sherman’s statement. He accused Ukrainian troops and “nationalists” of shooting at fleeing civilians, then added: “And yet today, we’re being told that we’re allegedly bombing vessels with grain as well as grain storage warehouses.”

Ukraine accused Russia on Wednesday of planting mines in the Black Sea and said some of those munitions had to be defused off Turkey and Romania as risks to vital merchant shipping in the region grow.

(Reporting by Steve Holland and Michelle Nichols; Editing by Heather Timmons and Leslie Adler)

Ukrainians hunting Russians as they leave Kyiv area

ABC News

Ukrainians hunting Russians as they leave Kyiv area: Pentagon update Day 36

Matt Seyler – March 31, 2022

The Pentagon has been providing daily updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s efforts to resist.

Here are highlights of what a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Wednesday on Day 36:

Russians being hunted as they withdraw from Kyiv area

The U.S. continues to see roughly 20% of the Russian forces that were arrayed against Kyiv repositioning away from the capital, the official said. And Ukrainian forces are attacking these troops as they withdraw from the area.

“As these forces begin to reposition, the Ukrainians are moving against them,” the official said.

Most of the Russian forces that are repositioning were located to the north and northwest of Kyiv. Most notably, they seem to have abandoned Hostomel airport, which has been a site of intense fighting at various points since the beginning of the invasion.

“We believe that they have very likely abandoned Hostomel airfield,” the official said.

PHOTO: A local resident rides a bicycle past an apartment building damaged during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 31, 2022. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)
PHOTO: A local resident rides a bicycle past an apartment building damaged during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 31, 2022. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

Although some troops are repositioning, long-range strikes on Kyiv continue.

“Despite the rhetoric of de-escalation, we’re still observing artillery fire and airstrikes in and around Kyiv,” the official said.

Shifting focus to Donbas

“This repositioning that they’re doing around Kyiv and other places in the north, and this reprioritization on the Donbas, clearly indicates that they know they have failed to take the capital city, that they know they have been under increased pressure elsewhere around the country,” the official said.

While Russia might be dedicating more forces to taking control of the Donbas region, the Ukrainians are primed to make it a tough fight.

MORE: Russia-Ukraine live updates: Russia hands over control of Chernobyl

“The Ukrainians know the territory very, very well. They have a lot of forces still there, and they’re absolutely fighting very hard for that area, as they have over the last eight years,” the official said. “So just because they’re going to prioritize it and put more force there or more energy there doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy for them.”

Russian ships can hit Donbas

While there are still no signs of any imminent amphibious landings, Russia has several ships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov that could be used to threaten the Donbas region with cruise missiles, the official said.

Putin not getting full picture from advisers

PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on the development of air transportation and aircraft manufacturing, via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, on March 31, 2022. (Kremlin via Reuters)
PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on the development of air transportation and aircraft manufacturing, via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, on March 31, 2022. (Kremlin via Reuters)

“Our assessment is that the planning for this war was done with a very small circle of people, and that Mr. Putin’s advisers do not count many. And, you know, our assessment is that they have not been completely honest with him about how it’s going,” the official said.

The official said Russian President Vladimir Putin has kept to a “very, very close circle,” a leadership style that inherently limits access to information.

“I can’t account for the fact that the people advising him have chosen to obstruct certain information or omit certain information. All we can say is we don’t believe that he has been getting the full picture,” the official said.

Odesa under blockade

“We know that the Russians have continued to blockade Odesa,” the official said. “So obviously it’s having it’s having an economic impact there.”

PHOTO: Ukrainian soldiers pass on top of armored vehicles next to a destroyed Russian tank in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 31, 2022. (Rodrigo Abd/AP)
PHOTO: Ukrainian soldiers pass on top of armored vehicles next to a destroyed Russian tank in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 31, 2022. (Rodrigo Abd/AP)

Kherson contested

“We assess that they’re still fighting over Kherson. We know that the Russians are in the city, but we aren’t prepared to call it for one side or the other at this point. I mean, it had been in Russian control, but the Ukrainians are attempting to retake Kherson, so it’s still being fought over,” the official said.

Bombardment of Mariupol continues

“I don’t have an update on the degree to which a cease-fire is being applied in Mariupol. What I try to give you is what we’ve seen, you know, in the last 24 hours since we last talked, and we have continued to see Mariupol will come under airstrikes,” the official said.

UK will send long-range weapons to keep Russian troops on the run in Ukraine

The Telegraph

UK will send long-range weapons to keep Russian troops on the run in Ukraine

Danielle Sheridan – March 31, 2022

A Ukrainian serviceman fires a mortar towards Russian positions near Kyiv - Shutterstock
A Ukrainian serviceman fires a mortar towards Russian positions near Kyiv – Shutterstock

Longer range artillery and armoured vehicles will be sent to Ukraine in a significant ramping up of Western support, Ben Wallace announced on Thursday.

The Defence Secretary confirmed that Britain and its allies would send more lethal aid after he convened an international donor conference.

The aid will include the provision of air and coastal defence systems, longer-range artillery and counter battery weapons, armoured vehicles as well as more training and logistical support.

“First of all Ukraine needs longer-range artillery and that’s because of what the Russian army has been doing – it has been now digging in and starting to pound these cities with artilleries,” Mr Wallace said.

“The best counter to that is other long-range artillery, so they will be looking for and getting more long-range artillery, ammunition predominantly.”

Boris Johnson was said to have personally pushed for armoured vehicles to be sent. Britain has been leading the way in calls for more lethal aid to Ukraine.

Whitehall sources have expressed concern that allies including the US, France and Germany are “over-eager” to secure an early peace deal and are pushing Ukraine to “settle”.

It came as a Ministry of Defence chief suggested Britain needs a national effort to boost its nuclear weapons programme.

While more than 30 international partners will pitch in with the latest donations, The Telegraph understands that the UK will send so-called loitering munitions such as drones, and will “lift and shift” other donations.

Prof Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute, told The Telegraph such kit would be “especially useful for Ukrainian counter offensive operations” against already retreating Russians.

“This is a significant step up in both quantitative and qualitative terms,” he added. “The provision of longer range artillery and armoured vehicles could be of significant benefit to Ukrainian forces.”

Prof Chalmers cautioned that the Ukraine war is “increasingly turning into one of attrition, where both sides risk running out of supplies of weapons and ammunition”.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Defence would not speculate on what types of armoured vehicles the UK could supply to Ukraine, but said it would consist of various types of protective vehicles used to transport equipment.

It comes as Russian forces were said to have retreated from a Ukrainian airfield that was key to their original plan of overthrowing the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.

Hostomel airport, just outside Kyiv, was the scene of some of the fiercest fighting of the war as Vladimir Putin sought to establish an air bridge to the Ukrainian capital.

Control of the airport, 20km from Kyiv, changed hands several times as Ukrainians at first defended fiercely, and then attacked the Russian occupiers.

However, according to a senior US defence official the Russians have now moved out, having failed in their mission.

Meanwhile the Pentagon said that it was not clear Russia’s convoy of military vehicles to Kyiv, which once stretched some 40 miles, even existed anymore after failing to accomplish its mission.

John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman said: “I don’t even know if it still exists at this point… They never really accomplished their mission.”

The stalled convoy became a symbol of Russia’s battlefield difficulties and had been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian forces during the first weeks of the more than month-long invasion.

The Ukrainian state nuclear company said that most of the Russian forces that occupied the Chernobyl nuclear power station after invading Ukraine have also left, having been driven away over radiation concerns.

Speaking from the White House on Thursday, Joe Biden, the US president, said Vladimir Putin may have fired some of his advisers or put them under house arrest, and that it’s an “open question” as to whether Mr Putin is fully informed on his military’s performance in Ukraine.

He added that “there’s a lot of speculation” about how informed Mr Putin is on Russian military progress in Ukraine, where his army has suffered staggering casualties while failing to capture major cities including the capital, Kyiv.

Russia keeps pounding Ukraine, fueling skepticism over Putin’s intentions

CBS News

Russia keeps pounding Ukraine, fueling skepticism over Putin’s intentions

CBS News – March 30, 2022

Kyiv — Russia’s unrelenting bombing campaign in Ukraine is fueling skepticism about Moscow’s claim that it will “drastically reduce” its military operations in two areas of the country to “increase mutual trust” and encourage peace talks. Despite the ongoing negotiations, the war continues.

As of Wednesday, the United Nations said it had driven more than 4 million people to flee Ukraine, upending their lives and making them refugees. At least 6 million more Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes to seek safety elsewhere inside the country.

As CBS News correspondent Debora Patta reports from the capital city of Kyiv — one of the areas where Russia said it would scale back its assault — U.S. military officials see President Vladimir Putin’s latest move more as a repositioning of forces than a retreat, and in Kyiv and elsewhere, the threat remained high on Wednesday.

Boardroom discussions like Tuesday’s peace talks in Turkey mean little on the battlefield. Patta says Ukrainians are not letting their guard down, with soldiers continuing to patrol checkpoints around Kyiv, on high alert as they search for Russian saboteurs.

With shelling still heard north of the capital on Wednesday morning ,it was clear that the danger still lurks on the ground, and in the sky.

“The enemy is still here,” President Volodomyr Zelenskyy told his country on Wednesday night, after Russia’s announcement. “Missile and air attacks have not stopped… that’s the reality.”

Few places have felt that more than the southeastern port city of Mariupol, which has all but collapsed. Even if peace is given a chance, all that’s left of Mariupol is rubble and ruin.

Children from the besieged city, and many others like it in Ukraine’s south and east, want their childhoods back.

“I’m so tired,” said one little girl. “And my toys have no batteries in them.”

Older Ukrainians just want to forget. “What else can I do,” asked Genaidy as he gathered what he could from his damaged apartment to flee Mariupol. “There’s nothing left for me here.”

He’s walking away after nearly 40 years working as a shoemaker in the city.

Russian-backed separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine — where the war now raging had simmered quietly since Putin’s last invasion in 2014 — are in no mood for peace. Video emerged showing rebels forcing Ukrainians to strip down, claiming they were searching for Nazi tattoos.

In nearby Mykolaiv, a Russian rocket ripped through a government building on Tuesday, leaving a gaping hole, and fresh trauma. One woman watched helplessly as her colleague died in her arms — one of 12 people killed in the strike according to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service.

Rescuers work at the regional administration building, which was hit by cruise missiles, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, in a handout picture released March 30, 2022 by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. / Credit: STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE//Handout/REUTERS
Rescuers work at the regional administration building, which was hit by cruise missiles, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, in a handout picture released March 30, 2022 by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. / Credit: STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE//Handout/REUTERS

Even if the Russian military does make good on its promise to pull back from Kyiv, in the towns around the capital, where fierce battles have been raging, there’s not much left to fight for.

While Ukraine claims to have retaken nearby towns like Irpin, those areas have been decimated, and many people did not make it out alive.

The U.K. said Wednesday that its latest intelligence did show some Russian troops pulling back from the outskirts of Kyiv into Belarus and Russia, “to reorganize and resupply” after suffering heavy losses. The Ukrainian government said it expected Russia to retain some troops near the capital, to keep the pressure on and prevent Ukraine’s forces from heading to the eastern front, where the war is still raging.

Zelenskyy, along with the U.S. and his other Western partners, have made it clear they’ll believe Russia’s claim to be easing the assault on Kyiv and the northeastern city of Chernihiv when they see it happen, and not before. Thirty-five days into an invasion that Putin insisted for months he had no intention of launching, the skepticism was unsurprising.

On Wednesday morning, the governor of Chernihiv said his region was “shelled all night” by Russian artillery: “Civil infrastructure has been destroyed again, libraries, shopping malls and other facilities have been destroyed, and many houses have been destroyed.”

Russian journalist says families are pressured not to talk about their relatives killed in Ukraine, local papers don’t report their deaths

Insider

Russian journalist says families are pressured not to talk about their relatives killed in Ukraine, local papers don’t report their deaths

Bill Bostock – March 30, 2022

Russian journalist says families are pressured not to talk about their relatives killed in Ukraine, local papers don’t report their deaths
Ukrainian firefighters work amid the rubble of the Retroville shopping mall, a day after it was shelled by Russian forces in a residential district in the northwest of the Ukranian capital Kyiv on March 21, 2022. - At least six people were killed in the bombing. Six bodies were laid out in front of the shopping mall, according to an AFP journalist. The building had been hit by a powerful blast that pulverised vehicles in its car park and left a crater several metres wide. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP) (Photo by FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images)
Ukrainian firefighters work amid the rubble in Kyiv on March 21, 2022.FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images
  • A Russian journalist says families are told to supress news of military relatives killed in Ukraine.
  • “They say, now there is no need to make a fuss,” the Siberian journalist told the BBC.
  • Russian state-run media is heavily censoring news of the invasion and is painting it as a success.

A Russian journalist says families of soldiers killed in Ukraine are being told to keep silent about it, and that newspapers are told not to report fatalities.

“All local media outlets were instructed by regional government not to publish any data on losses in Ukraine,” the journalist, who works in the Siberia region, told BBC World correspondent Olga Ivshina.

The journalist said that “there are cases when local officials put pressure on the relatives of the victims, ordering them to stay silent,” according to Ivshina.

“They say, now there is no need to make a fuss, we will find a way to commemorate your boys later.”

After weeks without addressing losses in Ukraine, Russia said last week that 1,351 of its soldiers had died in the offensive.

Its total was vastly less than the numbers Ukraine says it has killed. A NATO official estimated that a more accurate estimate was between 7,000 and 15,000.

According to Ivshina, Russian journalists are also being targeted for reporting on war deaths.

“There is evidence of growing pressure on local journalists in Russia who report on the military losses – some of the earlier publications about soldiers killed in action were deleted. Sometimes it happens in a day or two, sometimes within an hour,” she tweeted.

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, recently said that Russia was refusing to provide Ukraine with lists of missing Russian troops so that their bodies can be returned, the Guardian reported.

“The Russian authorities don’t want these bodies,” she said.

Russia has also been accused of using mobile crematorium chambers to conceal the true number of troops killed in the Ukraine conflict.

“These guys are carrying those cremation chambers for themselves,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this month, without providing evidence.

Russian state-run media is painting the invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a “special military operation,” as a success and news of the war is being heavily censored.

However, some journalists are breaking step.

Russian state TV editor Marina Ovsyannikova stormed a live Channel One news broadcast with an anti-war protest sign earlier this month and her colleague Zhanna Agalakova recently publicly resigned over the war.

Top officials from Ukraine and Russia met for peace talks in Turkey on Tuesday, with Ukraine saying it is open to declaring neutral status to end the war.

Several Russian servicemen seek help avoiding Ukraine war

Reuters

Several Russian servicemen seek help avoiding Ukraine war – lawyers

Dasha Afanasieva – March 30, 2022

FILE PHOTO: Russian servicemen march during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow

LONDON (Reuters) – Several Russian servicemen are seeking legal help to avoid being sent to fight in the war in Ukraine, two lawyers said, after 12 members of Russia’s National Guard were fired for refusing to go.

Lawyer Mikhail Benyash said around 200 people had been in contact to ask what they should do in a similar situation.

Pavel Chikov, another Russia-based lawyer, wrote on Telegram that there were “analogous stories from Crimea, Novgorod, Omsk, Stavropol… The workers are appealing for legal help.”

Reuters could not independently confirm the rush for legal help. The National Guard did not immediately reply to an emailed request for comment.

Ukraine and Western officials have said that Russia’s forces are suffering from severely low morale in what Moscow calls its special operation to disarm and “denazify” its neighbour. The West has cast it as a poorly executed, imperial-style land grab.

In five weeks, Moscow has failed to capture any major cities and on Tuesday said it would sharply reduce operations near Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv, although on Wednesday attacks on Chernihiv continued.

On Feb. 25, a day into the invasion, a National Guard commander in the southern Krasnodar region and 11 men from his company refused to follow an order to cross the border to Ukraine, Chikov wrote in an earlier post.

The group said the order was illegal because they didn’t have their international passports and because their main job description was confined to Russia, Chikov wrote. They believed they would be breaking the law by going abroad as part of an armed group.

Reuters could not independently verify the account.

The servicemen were fired, the lawyers said, and went on to file a wrongful dismissal lawsuit. On Tuesday, however, only three of the 12 proceeded with their claim, according to Benyash, who is representing them.

Russia created the National Guard in 2016 to fight terrorism and organised crime. Since then, it has cracked down on peaceful anti-government protests and in 2020 was placed on standby by President Vladimir Putin to intervene in Belarus, which was squashing civil unrest of its own.

(Reporting by Dasha Afanasieva; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Nick Macfie)

Britain: Russian units suffering losses, forced to leave Ukraine to resupply

The Hill

Britain: Russian units suffering losses, forced to leave Ukraine to resupply

March 30, 2022

Residents pass a rust-colored damaged Russian tank in the town of Trostsyanets
Residents pass a rust-colored damaged Russian tank in the town of Trostsyanets

The British Ministry of Defense said in an update on Wednesday that Russian forces were suffering losses, forcing them to leave Ukraine “to reorganize and resupply.”

“Russian units suffering heavy losses have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to reorganize and resupply. Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine,” the British Defense Ministry said in an update released through Twitter.

The British Defense Ministry said that Russia would likely defer to missile strikes and mass artillery to make up for their reduced ground maneuver capability.

“Russia’s stated focus on an offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk is likely a tacit admission it is struggling to sustain more than one significant axis of advance,” the ministry added.

The development comes as the Pentagon said on Tuesday that it did not believe a claim made by Moscow that its troops would be reducing military activity near the cities of Chernihiv and Kyiv, saying that Russia was instead “repositioning” its troops.

“We ought not be fooling – and nobody should be fooling ourselves by the Kremlin’s now recent claim that it will suddenly reduce military attacks near Kyiv or any reports that it’s going to withdraw all of its forces,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said.

“We believe this is a repositioning, not a real withdrawal, and that we all should be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine. It does not mean the threat to Kyiv is over,” Kirby noted.

The Russian invasion, now in its second month, has remained unsuccessful at seizing Kyiv. The Pentagon told reporters last week that the first Ukrainian city that was taken by Russia was no longer controlled by its forces.

Call Logs Underscore Trump’s Efforts to Sway Lawmakers on Jan. 6

The New York Times

Call Logs Underscore Trump’s Efforts to Sway Lawmakers on Jan. 6

Luke Broadwater and Maggie Haberman – March 30, 2022

 Peter Navarro, former trade advisor to the White House, speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Oct. 30, 2020. (Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times).
Peter Navarro, former trade advisor to the White House, speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Oct. 30, 2020. (Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times).

WASHINGTON — As part of his frenzied attempt to cling to power, President Donald Trump reached out repeatedly to members of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, both before and during the siege of the Capitol, according to White House call logs and evidence gathered by the House committee investigating the attack.

The logs, reported earlier by The Washington Post and CBS and authenticated by The New York Times, indicated that Trump had called Republican members of Congress, including Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, as he sought to pressure Vice President Mike Pence to reject electoral votes from several states.

But the logs also have a large gap with no record of calls by Trump from critical hours when investigators know that he was making them. The call logs were among documents turned over by the National Archives to the House committee examining the attack last year on the Capitol.

The New York Times reported last month that the committee had discovered gaps in official White House telephone logs from the day of the riot. The Washington Post and CBS reported Tuesday that a gap in the phone logs amounted to 7 hours and 37 minutes, including the period when the building was being assaulted.

Investigators have not uncovered evidence that any of the call logs were tampered with or deleted. It is well known that Trump routinely used his personal cellphone, and those of his aides, to talk with other aides, congressional allies and outside confidants, bypassing the normal channels of presidential communication and possibly explaining why the calls were not logged.

The logs appear to have captured calls that were routed through the White House switchboard. Three former officials who worked under Trump said that he mostly used the switchboard operator for outgoing calls when he was in the residence. He would occasionally use it from the Oval Office, the former officials said, but more often he would make calls through the assistants sitting outside the office, as well as from his cellphone or an aide’s cellphone. The assistants were supposed to keep records of the calls, but officials said the record keeping was not thorough.

People trying to reach Trump sometimes called the cellphone of Dan Scavino, former deputy chief of staff and omnipresent aide, one of the former officials said. (The House committee investigating the attack recommended Monday evening that Scavino be charged with criminal contempt of Congress for refusing to cooperate with a subpoena from the panel.)

But the call logs nevertheless show how personally involved Trump was in his last-ditch attempt to stay in office.

One of the calls made by Trump on Jan. 6, 2021 — at 9:16 a.m. — was to McConnell, the Senate’s top Republican, who refused to go along with Trump’s pressure campaign. Trump checked with the White House switchboard operator at 10:40 a.m. to make sure a message had been left for McConnell.

McConnell declined to return the president’s calls, he told reporters Tuesday.

“The last time I spoke to the president was the day after the Electoral College declared President Biden the winner,” McConnell said. “I publicly congratulated President Biden on his victory and received a phone call after that from President Trump and that’s the last time we’ve spoke.”

The logs also show Trump reached out on the morning of Jan. 6 to Jordan, who had been among members of Congress organizing objections to Joe Biden’s election on the House floor.

The logs show Trump and Jordan spoke from 9:24 a.m. to 9:34 a.m. Jordan has acknowledged speaking with Trump on Jan. 6, although he has said he cannot remember how many times they spoke that day or when the calls occurred.

Trump called Hawley at 9:39 a.m., and Hawley returned his phone call. A spokesperson for Hawley said Tuesday that the two men did not connect and did not speak until March. Hawley had been the first senator to announce he would object to Biden’s victory, and continued his objections even after rioters stormed the building and other senators backed off the plan.

The logs also show that Trump spoke from 11:04 a.m. to 11:06 a.m. with former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., who had recently lost his reelection campaign to Sen. Jon Ossoff.

A spokesperson for Sen. Bill Hagerty, R- Tenn., confirmed he had called Trump on Jan. 6 but said they did not connect. Hagerty declined to comment.

Despite the lack of call records from the White House, the committee has learned that Trump spoke on the phone with other Republican lawmakers on the morning of Jan. 6.

For instance, Trump mistakenly called the phone of Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, thinking it was the number of Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. Lee then passed the phone to Tuberville, who said he had spoken to Trump for less than 10 minutes as rioters were breaking into the building.

The president also fielded a call from Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, the top House Republican, who told Trump that people were breaking into his office on Capitol Hill.

During that call, Trump was said to have sided with the rioters, telling the top House Republicans that members of the mob who had stormed the Capitol were “more upset about the election than you are.”

Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s personal lawyer, was also calling lawmakers that day and continued to do so even after rioters laid siege to the building. In an evening phone call, he made clear that the effort to fight the result of the election was still alive even after the riot.

“Sen. Tuberville, or I should say Coach Tuberville, this is Rudy Giuliani, the president’s lawyer,” Giuliani said in a voicemail message intended for Tuberville, but mistakenly left on Lee’s phone. “I’m calling you because I want to discuss with you how they’re trying to rush this hearing and how we need you, our Republican friends, to try to just slow it down.”

The news of the call logs came the same day that the White House said Biden would not extend executive privilege to cover any testimony to the committee by Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, Trump’s daughter and son-in-law, who worked as his advisers.

“The president has spoken to the fact that Jan. 6 was one of the darkest days in our country’s history, and that we must have a full accounting of what happened to ensure that it never occurs again,” said White House spokesperson Kate Bedingfield. “And he’s been quite clear that they posed a unique threat to our democracy and that the constitutional protections of executive privilege should not be used to shield, from Congress or the public, information about an attack on the Constitution itself.”

Kushner is scheduled to testify before the committee this week, while Ivanka Trump has been negotiating the terms of her potential cooperation.