As Lake Michigan beaches erode, millions of dollars have been poured into temporary solutions

As Lake Michigan beaches erode, millions of dollars have been poured into temporary solutions

Patrick M. O’Connell                            December 13, 2020
As Lake Michigan beach erosion worsens, officials and residents take  concerns to Capitol Hill | News Break

LUDINGTON, Mich. – As the wind whipped across the top of the Big Sable Point lighthouse, one of the most famous and beloved on the Great Lakes, Jim Gallie pointed to the disappearing beach: “It’s been progressively getting worse.”

Every few seconds, a wave slammed into the break-wall protecting the base of the lighthouse, sending a silver splash high into the air, much to the delight of the photographers and young families there to take in the sights.

Hikers and beachcombers who trekked along the shoreline to the remote, historic lighthouse at Ludington State Park once had ample room between the pulsating waves and the metal break-wall.

Now the Michigan Department of Natural Resources is spending $130,000 to recap the seawall and place new stone barriers at its base. The hope is that the reinforcements will slow erosion, save the beach, protect the base of the lighthouse and preserve the low-lying dunes.

“If it wasn’t for that seawall,” said Gallie, the park manager in Ludington, “those dunes would be gone.”

From 112 feet above the beach on the deck of the 1867 lighthouse, the effects of a changing climate and a lake near historically high levels are clear: Increased precipitation, rising temperatures and human development across the Great Lakes basin have changed Lake Michigan and the lives of the millions who live, work and play along the coast in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin.

“It’s a system that’s really been whipsawed in many ways by a variety of factors, from climate change to non-native species, to the legacy of contaminants,” said J. Val Klump, dean and professor at the School of Freshwater Sciences at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee.

As part of the series “Great Lakes, High Stakes,” the Chicago Tribune visited and reported from each of the lakes, exploring the environmental issues and how coastal communities are adapting to a warming world.

While Illinois is home to one of the most intensely engineered coastlines across the Great Lakes, Lake Michigan still has the sandiest shores and therefore draws the most visitors, experts say. Michigan alone has 275,000 acres of sand dune formations, the vast majority of which are on the shores of Lake Michigan.

The third largest Great Lake by surface area (second by volume) is an eclectic mix of dune bluffs, sandy beaches, rugged rocks, major Midwestern cities, tourist towns and marshlands. But it is also emblematic of the myriad issues facing all of the Great Lakes as the climate continues to change. Surging water levels have collapsed bluffs, swamped coastal dune lands, erased beaches and damaged homes, businesses, docks, trails, campgrounds and sewer systems.

Residents and officials are scrambling to find new solutions as stone barriers and beach replenishment are often too costly and ineffective over the long-term.

Property owners look for help to prevent, repair erosion along Lake Michigan  | WWMT

In Illinois, environmental officials, engineers and scientists are experimenting with offshore reefs and shoals with the idea of blunting the force of storm surges before they eat away at the sand, dunes and marshland habitats. Meanwhile in Chicago, residents have dealt with submerged beaches and waterlogged trails as officials pour millions into shoreline protections.

In Wisconsin, cities and towns up and down the coast are spending millions on projects such as stormwater sewer upgrades and pier stabilization. In Indiana, shoreline protection has been contentious, including a federal lawsuit filed by residents and officials of Ogden Dunes who claim dunes, roads and private homes are “in danger of total destruction” if current protections fail.

Back at Big Sable Point, the landscape looks a lot different today than it did several years ago. The water, and the wind, have been eroding so much of the near dunes, Gallie said, that rangers and visitors have been uncovering a trove of treasures once buried.

A picnic table believed to be from Wisconsin “suddenly emerged from a dune that was eroding,” Gallie said. More troubling, an abandoned Dow Chemical pipeline buried near the shore also became exposed.

“I didn’t see it changing so drastically in such a short period of time,” said Gallie, who has worked at the park for a decade. “I expected to just be managing sand, cleaning the parking lots, cleaning the paths. But I didn’t expect the water levels to be way up like they’ve been.”

CONTROLLED RETREAT

As more precipitation falls on the upper Midwest and temperatures continue to rise, communities all around Lake Michigan have been hunting for solutions for how to deal with a changing climate and an altered lakeshore. On the western shores of Michigan, houses have begun to slip into the lake because of eroding coastal dunes, leading homeowners to stabilize their structures, build waterfront barriers or move altogether. Last winter, a home in Muskegon County tumbled into the lake. In Chicago, city and federal officials have battled lakefront flooding with boulders and trail repairs. To the north in Wisconsin, homes, piers and sewer systems need reinforcements from an encroaching lake.

In Orchard Beach State Park, north of Manistee, Michigan, park officials are planning to relocate the historic pavilion building that overlooks the lake because of the danger of erosion.

Doug Barry, unit supervisor at the park, described moving the entire structure, a massive 400-ton limestone building with a concrete foundation, two fireplaces, a picnic area and a protected hall, as “controlled retreat.”

The shoreline at the park has been losing 6 inches of soil per year, Barry said.

“There’s a lot of different erosion going on,” Barry said. “Wind, rainfall, the waves.”

With the 70-foot bluff eroding at a rapid rate, Barry and the park staff had a difficult decision to make regarding the historic pavilion with sweeping lake vistas that hosts weddings, picnics and parties. Ultimately, Barry said they decided to completely relocate the building, built by the Civilian Conservation Corps and opened in the 1940s.

Barry said DNR officials and consultants considered shoreline stabilization, including 5-ton boulders, but ultimately believed those were not only going to change the character of the beach, the park’s most popular attraction, but provide only brief relief.

“It’s a temporary fix,” Barry said, pointing to the beach and the bluff from the stairs that lead down to the lake, its entrance closed off for the year because high water levels have made it unsafe. “Lake Michigan is going to win.”

Barry saw an episode of “This Old House” in which crews relocated a house, and he began to explore the idea of moving the pavilion. While the process has taken three years of planning and the approval of federal and state agencies, he said, it “provides a long-term solution.”

“What’s the alternative?” Barry asked. “Let history fall into the lake? We’d still have to clean it up.”

CREATIVE SOLUTIONS

Cottage collapses into Lake Michigan after years of erosion

The movement of sand, and its effects on the shoreline and the underwater environment, is the focus of offshore projects at Illinois Beach State Park in Zion and the Fort Sheridan Forest Preserve in Lake County, north of Chicago.

There, a consortium of agencies, including the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, private researchers and the Lake County Forest Preserves, is working to install a series of offshore reefs and underwater natural breakwalls. The goal is to protect the shoreline, including the popular beaches at the state park, but also study whether reducing the flow of sand, sediment and crashing waves along the shore will alter the character of the lake itself, the nearshore habitat, the beaches and the unique marshlands beyond.

The Army Corps, working with the Lake County Forest Preserve District and other local partners, has nearly finished a large-scale project at the Fort Sheridan Forest Preserve in Lake Forest.

The project is focused on coastal restoration and underwater habitat improvement. Out in the water, the underwater reefs, made of large limestone blocks, tree roots, small cobblestones and sand, may end up having two benefits: improving the aquatic habitat for fish and state-threatened mudpuppies while also protecting the shoreline and the nearshore lakeshore bed, said Jim Anderson, director of natural resources for the Lake County Forest Preserve District.

“We’re really hoping for them to break the power of the waves a little so when they hit the shoreline, they’re not as destructive,” Anderson said.

The reefs, constructed parallel to the shore about 100 to 300 feet out, were designed so that when the lake levels subside, they will still be underwater.

On land, preservation work on 1.5 miles of coastal bluffs, dunes and beach has involved the eradication of invasive plant species and seeding the soil, dunes and ravines with native plants.

“A lot of these areas suffered from development that depleted habitat,” said Nicole Toth, project manager with the Army Corps’ Chicago District. “The goal of the project is to bring that back, to improve the habitat and to get these areas into more of a natural state.”

The project, authorized under the Great Lakes Fishery and Ecosystem Restoration program, costs an estimated $14 million, shared between the federal government, the Lake County Forest Preserve District, Openlands, the city of Lake Forest and Lake Forest Open Lands Association. Most of the federal share, about $9.1 million, was funded with Great Lakes Restoration and Initiative funds received from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

The Army Corps’ Chicago District has been working on more than a dozen similar projects, mostly in urban areas along Illinois’ North Shore.

A few miles to the north, scientists are studying how the lake is interacting with the shore and exploring nature-based solutions to help protect the beach and the nearshore habitats; blunt the force of the waves, especially in record-high levels; and slow the movement of sediment and sand.

Jack Cox, a coastal engineer with Edgewater Resources who is a scientific consultant for lakeshore projects, including at Illinois Beach State Park, has been studying how waves act and react to the lake bed and the shore. Cox is using a giant physical model of the Lake Michigan coast at a facility in Wallingford, England. Cox and others built a model — so large you can enter it with waders — of the shoreline so they could see how waves form, react as they crash into the shore and affect the movement of sand.

But waves, even if people cannot see them from the shore, are also busy churning under the surface, scouring the lake bed when the water becomes shallow near the shore and carrying sand along with it.

Weather patterns have pushed sand and sediment southward for years. But as people built more harbors, piers, docks, breakwaters and paved over sections of the shoreline, sand has become trapped along the way by all of these structures, Cox said.

“Sand wants to move in one direction or the other,” Cox said. “All the sand or sediment wants to move south toward Gary. If we had never settled all of this, Gary, Indiana, would be the world’s greatest beach.”

Cox said it can be helpful to imagine a zigzag pattern, where a wave comes in at an angle toward the shore, recedes, then zags back to land. At developed sections of the lake, with hardened landscapes of structures like Chicago, the waves bounce back more forcefully and can scour more powerfully.

At Illinois Beach, where there is 5 to 6 miles of natural shoreline, the goal of offshore, underwater barriers is to slow the scouring and the damage that waves can do to the beach and the unique marshlands beyond.

“And we want this to be as natural or as invisible as it can be,” Cox said.

The ideas range from underwater reefs, like to the south at Fort Sheridan, to offshore islands to underwater breakwaters. Success, Cox said, is a project that holds the shoreline so it does not retreat any farther. It may also have the added benefit of protecting onshore bird habitats and nesting grounds, and underwater fish habitats.

“It may be even able to cause a beach to be self-healing,” Cox said.

LAKE VS. HUMANS

In some communities like Saugatuck, Michigan, and the North Shore in Illinois, homeowners have put up their own barriers of boulders or breakwalls to hold back the lake. But officials are increasingly opposed to this piecemeal approach because it merely pushes erosion problems to neighboring properties or blocks public access to the lake.

With cotton clouds hanging low in the sky, whitecaps churned toward the shore of Oval Beach near Saugatuck, the southwestern Michigan town popular with many Chicagoans. The beach attracts tourists, walkers and bodysurfers to the white sand and sandy bluffs covered in dune grass.

Here, the tug between nature and human protection efforts is on full display. To the south of the public beach, dozens of expensive homes have prime lakefront property. As the lake rises and the waves do their work, the beaches and bluffs have been eroding, forcing some homeowners to seek remedies such as seawalls or stone barriers.

At the spot where the public land ends and private property begins, a sign was staked into the ground with a notice from the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy, permitting 213 feet of large stones “to protect against lakeshore erosion.”

A steady stream of visitors gawked, some shaking their heads, and took photos of the sign and the giant boulders at the water’s edge.

Among them was Kathleen Johnson, a retired teacher who has lived in Saugatuck for 40 years.

“It looks terrible,” Johnson said. “It’s brutal. It changes the way the lake reacts.”

The new structures and breakwalls also prevent people from being able to walk along the beach, since Michigan law allows the public to access the lakeshore as long as they are right along the water’s edge.

Johnson’s beach-walking route has been altered by seawalls and stabilization efforts.

“That’s impossible now,” she said.

To the north, on the other side of the Kalamazoo River, a battle is ongoing over the future of land near Saugatuck Dunes State Park. Developers are eager to build homes and a marina on the riverbank, at a protected inlet not far from the lake. Others aren’t keen on the idea, including David Swan, president of the Saugatuck Dunes Coastal Alliance.

“The only thing wrong with Saugatuck Dunes State Park: It’s too small,” Swan said.

The coronavirus pandemic, he said, has only underscored the benefits of outdoors parks and preserves, as people search for safe places for exercise, fresh air and space away from other people.

“Our public lands are being threatened up to the line by proposed development,” Swan said. “We need these natural areas more than ever.”

AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

At an Environmental Law and Policy Center virtual event in early September, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot acknowledged that high lake levels, shoreline flooding and access to clean water are continual challenges for city officials as they look to a more sustainable future.

Lightfoot said the city needs to rethink how it approaches the lakefront, work with federal partners to secure funding for projects and make sure residents understand the dangers and risks of shoreline flooding.

Millions of dollars have been spent and allocated for beach repair, revetment work and shoreline protections along the city’s lakefront, from Juneway, Howard and Rogers beaches in the north to Promontory Point near Hyde Park and the shoreline to the south.

A group of Great Lakes mayors has estimated that in the last year alone, high water, flooding and erosion has caused $500 million worth of damage in cities throughout the region.

Lake Michigan beach erosion - Michigan Drone Pros Photography & Video

In January, Gov. J.B. Pritzker issued a state disaster proclamation for Cook and Lake counties that helped municipalities apply for federal funding.

Lake Michigan set a monthly high mean record for each month in 2020 from January through August. The lake was nearly 3 feet higher than usual for early summer, and levels came close to reaching the all-time high, recorded in October 1986, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which maintains the official records. This fall, lake levels have fallen, and the Army Corps forecasts that they will remain flat or drop until the spring, when levels typically rise during the thaw.

However, in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter forecast for the Great Lakes, there is an increased chance for above-normal precipitation and snow accumulation. If that occurs, it increases the chances for more runoff and flooding. NOAA also notes that the potential for more ice on the lake later in the winter, caused by colder than normal temperatures, may result in less evaporation from surface water, keeping lake levels high. When you combine those factors, Lake Michigan may be on the path to high lake levels again next year.

Last year was the second-wettest year on record in the United States, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Chicago was pelted by 49.54 inches of precipitation, which ranks as the third wettest year on record and more than 12 inches greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service. Since Illinois meteorologists began collecting precipitation records in 1871, four of the top five wettest years in Chicago have occurred in the last decade.

Air temperatures are also on the rise. Last year was the second warmest year since records began to be collected in 1880, NOAA reported. The warmest was 2016, aided by El Nino events. Rising temperatures and increased precipitation are linked, scientists said.

OUT OF BALANCE

As climate change contributes to the warming of Lake Michigan’s more shallow waters, scientists across the Midwest are studying how changes in air and water temperature are altering the water, aquatic life and the proliferation of invasive species.

Joel Petersen, a fourth-generation commercial fisherman and captain of the “Joy,” which uses Fishtown, the historic and functional fishing village in Leland, Michigan, as its home port, said invasive species like the quagga mussel have upset the bottom food chain, altering the fish species at the higher end. With tiny snails and shrimp populations dwindling, he said, chubs have vanished and whitefish are scarce.

“With the food web all screwed up, it takes the whitefish a lot longer to grow,” Petersen said. “It’s been decimated from top to bottom. The whole thing’s out of balance.”

University of Minnesota researchers Tedy Ozersky and Sergei Katsev have been studying the effect of the quagga mussels on the biology and chemistry of the lake.

What they have found is that the quagga mussels, an aquatic mollusk native to Ukraine that arrived in ballast water from transoceanic vessels in the early 1990s, have outcompeted zebra mussels — which two decades ago were the more prolific invasive mussel — in the deep, offshore regions of the lake bottom.

Their impact stretches beyond changing the bottom of the food web. Their proliferation has filtered the water and changed the chemistry of the sediment. When the researchers lowered a camera into the water, they were surprised at not just how many mussels they saw, but also how active they were.

“It looked like they were having a party,” Ozersky said.

The invasives, he said, can filter 200 meters of lake in a matter of days, pulling the nutrients from the water, stealing them from other creatures that need them to survive.

For Petersen, the upending of that underwater interdependence has had a direct connection to how many fish he is able to catch. Peterson once caught 250 pounds of fish in the waters surrounding the Manitou islands, to the west of Leland. Now, it’s down to about 30 pounds a week.

“We don’t get very many,” he said.

The fish Petersen does catch he sells to Carlson’s Fishery, the popular shop in Fishtown. On an early fall weekday, the coronavirus a constant worry, the shop still had a line out the door during lunchtime.

Petersen is not sure how much longer he will be able to make a living out on the lake.

“You don’t want to stop,” he said. “But there might be a time when you have to. You never know what next year might look like.”

HISTORY ENDURES

The recent high water levels also have ravaged Fishtown, where on a blustery autumn day people bundled up in windbreakers and sweatshirts still flocked to the village on the fingertip Leelanau Peninsula. In bad weather, storm surges cause short-term flooding, swamping the wooden shanties, shops, pier, docks and walkway along the Leland River near where it empties into the lake.

The Fishtown Preservation Society has been working to raise the buildings and docks, many of which have been around since the early 20th century. The cost of all of the work will be at least $500,000, said Amanda Holmes, the society’s executive director.

“We keep having to add new projects,” Holmes said.

But while high lake levels and river flooding have led to changes, Fishtown’s unique northern Michigan location is part of its appeal.

“It can be so mesmerizing to be in a place where you are able to be one with the weather,” Holmes said.

The effort, and cost, is worth it, Holmes said. The society receives donations from people in 46 states, and many of those who stroll the docks and check out the shops at Fishtown are repeat visitors from across the Midwest. One of the recent catchphrases is “Save Our Shanties.”

“This is a place,” Holmes said, “that people have loved for a very long time.”

The challenge, she said, is to protect the buildings while maintaining and preserving their character.

“You just endure,” Holmes said.

–––

(This story received financial support from the Pulitzer Center’s Connected Coastlines initiative.)

Why experts are sounding the alarm about the hidden dangers of gas stoves

Quartz – SLOW BURN

Why experts are sounding the alarm about the hidden dangers of gas stoves

By Jonathan Mingle                            December 4, 2020
Gas stove burner
AP PHOTO/JOERG SARBACH.
Keeping the flame at a low burn. Every industry can be part of the solution — or part of the ongoing problem.

As a physician and epidemiologist with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, T. Stephen Jones spent his career fighting major threats to public health in the US and globally, from smallpox to HIV to viral hepatitis. But it wasn’t until Jones was well into retirement that he learned about a widespread yet widely overlooked health risk in his own home in Florence, Massachusetts, and in most US households: pollution emitted by natural gas appliances.

While many Americans might think illness linked to indoor cooking and heating is a problem confined to smoke-filled kitchens in the developing world, the natural gas-burning stoves and furnaces found in millions of US kitchens and basements can produce a range of health-damaging pollutants, including particulate matter (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and formaldehyde. Over the past four decades, researchers have amassed a large body of scientific evidence linking the use of gas appliances, especially for cooking, with a higher risk of a range of respiratory problems and illnesses.

Since the publication of two new reports on the subject from the nonprofit research group the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, this past spring, the existence of these gas-fired health hazards has garnered increasing media scrutiny. But less discussed has been how the Covid-19 pandemic has compounded the risks of this pollution, especially for low-income and vulnerable populations, and how key regulatory agencies have lagged decades behind the science in acting to protect them.

“There’s no question this has been a neglected issue,” said Jones, who has drawn on lessons from his long career in public health epidemiology and disease prevention in sounding the alarm throughout Massachusetts and with former CDC colleagues over the past few years. The first step, he said, is “letting people know what the risks are—particularly when they can be substantial, life-threatening risks that can kill kids.”

One of the clearest signals emerging in the scientific literature is the connection between cooking with gas and childhood asthma—a disease suffered by people of color and lower-income groups at much higher rates than the rest of the population. A 2013 meta-analysis of 41 studies found that children living in homes with gas stoves had a 42% higher risk of experiencing asthma symptoms, and, over their lifetime, a 24% increase in the risk of being diagnosed with asthma. That study confirmed, in turn, what a 1992 meta-analysis found: Children exposed to higher levels of indoor NO2 (at an increment “comparable to the increase resulting from exposure to a gas stove”) had an elevated risk of respiratory illness. More recently, a 2018 study from the University of Queensland found that in Australia, where 38% of households rely on gas stoves for cooking, more than 12% of the total burden of childhood asthma was attributable to their use.

Meanwhile, troubling new findings suggest that exposure to NO2—the primary pollutant of concern from gas appliances—could compound the dangers of the novel coronavirus in communities that are already at higher risk of infection and of dying from the disease. A recent peer-reviewed study led by researchers at Emory University examined Covid-19 mortality data in more than 3,000 US counties, and found that long-term exposure to elevated NO2 was correlated with a higher risk of death from Covid-19—and that NO2 appeared to be more dangerous than particulate matter or ozone.

The hazards now have a growing chorus of scientists and public health experts insisting that better and stricter oversight of burning gas indoors—a health threat that has been hiding in plain sight for decades, they say—can no longer be ignored. “It’s fundamental and imperative,” said Jones. “We ought to get up on the rooftops and shout about it.”

The cumulative evidence was enough for the venerable New England Journal of Medicine to publish an editorial in January recommending that “new gas appliances be removed from the market.” It was co-authored by Howard Frumkin, a former director of the CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health, which is responsible for investigating environmental drivers of illness and promulgating guidance about those risk factors.

Despite such calls—and despite compelling evidence that gas appliances can produce levels of air pollution inside homes that would be illegal outdoors in the US—indoor air quality remains entirely unregulated in the US today, and gas appliances largely maintain their industry-manufactured reputation as “clean.” The Environmental Protection Agency only monitors pollutants in outdoor air. And while building codes typically require natural gas furnaces and water heaters to be vented outside, many states lack requirements that natural gas cooking stoves be vented to the outdoors.

Still, recent signs suggest that some measure of regulatory action reflecting the current understanding of the health risks of gas cooking and heating devices might finally be forthcoming. At the end of September, the California Energy Commission held a day-long workshop on indoor air quality and cooking to inform its triennial update to its building energy efficiency standards. The California Air Resources Board (CARB), which regulates air pollution in the state, presented evidence that gas stoves harm health, and that a statewide transition to electric appliances would result in substantial health benefits. These obscure energy code deliberations have generated an unprecedented number of public comments—testament, advocates say, to mounting concern about greenhouse gas emissions, and to growing awareness of the health impacts of residential fossil fuel use.

Last month, the 16 members of CARB unanimously adopted a resolution in support of updating building codes to improve ventilation standards and move toward electrification of appliances—making California the first state to issue official guidance addressing the health impacts of gas stoves and other appliances.

This guidance—which cited the evidence linking gas appliances with asthma and exposure to air pollution more generally with elevated Covid-19 risks—boosts the hopes of those advocating for the decarbonization of California’s buildings that the Energy Commission will require new construction in the state to be all-electric in 2022. If that happens, it would instantly transform the country’s largest market for gas appliances, in a move that could reverberate nationwide.

Until then, advocates for reform suggest they’ll keep pushing—not least because, while this long chain of evidence would be worrying under any circumstance, the Covid-19 pandemic is keeping more people inside cooking at home than ever before.


Jones’ advocacy started with a phone call. In 2017, his wife, Adele Franks, also a retired public health physician, received a call from the local chapter of the Sierra Club, asking if she would like to help raise awareness among Massachusetts state public health officials about the health effects of gas appliances. She was too busy, so Jones took on the project instead.

He started digging into the peer-reviewed literature. He called experts on air pollution and respiratory health at research universities and reached out to former colleagues at the CDC. While the topic was new to him, analyzing epidemiological studies and assessing their rigor was not. At the CDC, Jones had worked on childhood immunization and child survival programs in Latin America and Africa and spent over a decade as its lead policy expert on HIV and viral hepatitis prevention. (He and Franks are both alumni of the CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service, which trains “disease detectives” to investigate and respond to public health emergencies in the US and around the world.)

Jones says he was struck by the discrepancy between the firmness of the evidence and the nearly non-existent response from regulators and public health agencies. Indeed, he found the evidence so persuasive that he traveled around Massachusetts, making presentations to local boards of health in more than 70 different cities and towns.

“One of the things I would always ask them was, ‘Have you heard about this connection between cooking with a gas stove and increased asthma among children living in the household?’” Jones said. The answer he received—from health board members and from former colleagues working in medicine and public health—was almost always “No.”

The fact that these gas stoves contribute to elevated NO2 is indisputable.

At around this same time, Brady Seals, a researcher at the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a nonprofit clean energy think tank, who co-authored its recent report summarizing decades’ worth of research on the health effects of gas stoves, was combing through the preceding 20 years’ worth of peer-reviewed studies on the subject. She pored over the EPA’s 2008 and 2016 Integrated Science Assessments on nitrogen oxides, the latter of which concluded that short-term NO2 exposure can exacerbate asthma and cause other adverse respiratory effects.

“The more I dug in and talked to experts in the field, I kept waiting to find out we were wrong,” Seals said. “It was the opposite. In every case, the evidence seems to be strengthening on NO2 and its impacts on health.” The RMI report (co-sponsored by advocacy groups Mothers Out Front, Physicians for Social Responsibility, and the Sierra Club) drew on that evidence to conclude that combustion products emitted by natural gas stoves can cause chronic respiratory illness.

“And the fact that these gas stoves contribute to elevated NO2 is indisputable,” added Seals.

Indeed, the EPA’s own analysis has found that American homes with gas stoves have much higher concentrations of NO2 than those using electric stoves—levels that would violate legal limits if measured outdoors.

Several of the studies cited in RMI’s report were led by Brett Singer, a staff scientist and leader of the Indoor Environment Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), who has been studying indoor air pollution for two decades. Measurement studies have found higher concentrations of NO2 and other pollutants in homes that rely on gas cooking since at least the 1980s, he said in an email.

“It is still a big problem,” he said. “LBNL has done several moderately-sized measurement studies in California in the past 10 years to show that elevated pollutant concentrations are still associated with gas cooking.”

Given that more than a third of all US households rely primarily on gas for cooking, the extent of the damage to people’s health, the RMI report concluded, could be quite large.

Seals spent over a decade working on clean cookstove programs in the developing world, where pollution from reliance on burning wood, coal, and dung for cooking kills 3.8 million people each year. But like Steve Jones, she wasn’t aware of these health risks from a fuel long touted by the natural gas industry, and embraced by the American public, as clean. “I was working on nothing but cookstoves for the past 11 years, but I didn’t really know a lot of this,” she said. “It’s humbling, in a way.”


The links between gas appliances and asthma—and the fact that environmental regulators and consumer protection agencies have long ignored the risk—have both been on Kevin Hamilton’s radar for a while. Hamilton is a licensed respiratory therapist and leader of the Central California Asthma Collaborative (CCAC), an organization that provides direct support to residents of California’s San Joaquin Valley who suffer from asthma and advocates for policy on their behalf.

In the San Joaquin Valley, which has long had some of the worst outdoor air pollution in the US, as many as 1 in 4 children have asthma. But from his years of working directly with asthmatics, Hamilton knows firsthand that their indoor air can trigger asthma, too.

His organization’s community health workers regularly visit homes to look for potential asthma triggers like mold, dust, and allergens, and help homeowners find ways to reduce their exposure. (Since the Covid-19 pandemic emerged, CCAC staff have been doing “virtual” home assessments using smart phones.) One of the key items on their checklist: the presence of a gas appliance. “We note whether or not they have a gas stove or electric stove, and gas for their heating and cooling,” Hamilton said. “Some homes are pretty old, and still have wall furnaces and floor heaters. We have concerns about all those things.”

Californians’ gas consumption is much higher than the national average. In about two thirds of California’s 14 million homes, gas is the primary cooking fuel, and a similar share relies on gas for heating. (Nationwide, 58% of households rely on natural gas as their main space heating fuel and 56% use gas for water heating, according to the Energy Information Administration.)

The vast majority of households that the asthma collaborative serves are low-income. “Our families are all on Medicaid or underinsured,” Hamilton said. Unvented gas-burning space heaters are illegal in California, but he noted that plenty of people still use them because they can’t afford alternatives or live in sub-standard rental housing.

These gas heaters can be even more dangerous than gas cooking appliances, Singer noted, because they are used for much longer periods, and are designed to vent directly into the living space, resulting in “very high pollutant concentrations.”

Especially in a home with poor ventilation, these particles can be highly concentrated with long-term health effects on people’s lives.

And some people, especially renters, even use their gas ovens as supplemental heating sources in the winter, or as a primary one if their electricity gets shut off.

“These are the most vulnerable folks, and have the least resources to do anything about this,” Hamilton said. “Especially in a home with poor ventilation, these particles can be highly concentrated with long-term health effects on people’s lives.”

Yifang Zhu, a professor of environmental health sciences at UCLA’s Fielding School of Public Health, underscored that point. “Smaller spaces, with more people in them, and poor ventilation, especially in rental apartment units, all mean higher levels of pollutants,” she said.

Zhu led a team of researchers that published a report in April examining the impact of natural gas appliances—including furnaces and water heaters—on health and air quality in California. One of the most striking findings from their modeling: In nearly all small apartments, cooking for just one hour on a gas stove results in NO2 concentrations that would far exceed ambient air quality limits set by the EPA and CARB.

Many of the houses and apartments that the asthma collaborative’s health workers evaluate don’t have functioning range hoods. And survey data cited by Zhu shows that only about a third of Californians who do have exhaust hoods use them regularly.

“Our work highlights that environmental-justice communities are disproportionately impacted by these issues,” Zhu said, referring to low-income and minority communities who often have higher exposures and greater vulnerability to environmental harms. “We need to understand there’s a cumulative, compounding health impact of those environmental conditions those populations are experiencing.”

Zhu’s team also calculated how much outdoor concentrations of nitrogen oxides and PM2.5—microscopic, airborne particles 2.5 micrometers or less in diameter—would be reduced by eliminating natural gas appliances from California homes. They estimated that the health benefits of going all-electric—in the form of avoided deaths and chronic illness—would amount to $3.5 billion per year.

And that estimate does not include the added benefits of indoor air quality improvements. Gaining access to people’s homes to observe their cooking and heating preferences and patterns, understand the physical layout, and monitor personal exposure is both logistically and ethically challenging, given privacy concerns and funding constraints. As a result, there are comparatively fewer studies that involve direct measurements of indoor air and individuals’ exposure.

Still, Zhu noted that if the impacts of breathing indoor particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides from gas combustion were tallied up, the health benefits of avoiding that exposure would almost certainly be far larger. “We know the most serious impacts happen indoors, so we can assume most health benefits will occur from replacing those indoor polluting appliances,” she said.

The people most burdened by these impacts are those who struggle the most to pay for cleaner alternatives.

The toll exacted by asthma alone gives a sense of the potential scale. Nearly 1.5 million children in California suffer from asthma. A 2015 report by the California Environmental Health Tracking Program found that childhood asthma results in more than 72,000 emergency room visits and 1.3 million missed school days per year. It calculated that the costs of childhood asthma—both the direct costs of treatment and hospitalization, as well as indirect costs from keeping sick kids home from school—due to environmental factors alone would be $208 million. The total cost of all asthma in the state, among children and adults, is estimated to be $11 billion.

During the recent wildfires plaguing California, CARB tweeted advice to stay indoors and shut windows to avoid breathing wildfire smoke. “Avoid vacuuming, frying foods or using gas-powered appliances,” the agency added.

For the millions of Californians who cook and heat with gas, however, that guidance presents an impossible choice—as does the specter of Covid-19, which has more of us worried about indoor ventilation. Several new studies suggest that people infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, who have higher exposure to air pollution are more likely to have severe cases of the disease.

“The people most burdened by these impacts are those who struggle the most to pay for cleaner alternatives,” says Seals. “We need policymakers to target those folks, and we need better rebates for electric stoves.”


For a long time, the blue flame coming out of a gas burner has evoked cleanliness. That was no accident, but the result of a concerted advertising campaign.

In the late 19th century, the nascent natural gas industry began marketing their product to homeowners as a cleaner, more hygienic alternative to coal and wood. After the famous comedian Bob Hope popularized the catchphrase “now you’re cooking with gas!” on his 1930s-era radio show, the slogan became synonymous with “modern, efficient, clean.”

Compared to the wood and coal it replaced in US households, gas was, and is, undoubtedly far better for air quality and health. That’s still true for the billions of people in the developing world who rely on solid fuels for cooking and heating, and are exposed to dangerous smoke every day as a result.

But the catchphrase is in need of updating, critics of such marketing argue. Compared to electric-powered appliances, gas burners are unquestionably more polluting. Induction cooktops—which use magnetic fields to heat pots quickly, rather than burning gas or using the resistance heating coils of conventional electric ranges—have been widely used in Europe for many years, and are now becoming more available in the US.

“Induction is both cleaner with fewer pollutant emissions and also the most efficient and least dangerous in terms of burns and fires,” said Brett Singer, “but cooking on induction still can produce pollutants that need to be vented.” Using a ventilation hood is essential with any cooking system, he emphasized.

We’re not accounting for what the pollution from gas stoves is doing to health costs, so we can’t monetize those.

Electric-powered induction cooktops may save energy and help homeowners breathe easier, but they are more expensive than conventional gas stoves. Right now, the only incentive program in California is a rebate of $100 to $750 from Sacramento’s municipal utility for homeowners who switch to an induction cooktop.

“We’re not accounting for what the pollution from gas stoves is doing to health costs, so we can’t monetize those,” Seals argued. If policymakers took those health costs into account, she added, the dollar value of all those avoided emergency room visits for asthma attacks and lost school and workdays could make wide-scale programs incentivizing adoption of induction cookers look like a bargain.

California is the birthplace of a growing movement by towns and cities to ban natural gas use in new construction. Nearly 40 cities and towns throughout the state have adopted ordinances mandating all-electric appliances in new residential buildings, with San Francisco among the most recent to do so. But those ordinances don’t touch the 70 million existing buildings in the US, including California’s 14 million homes—90% of which use natural gas in some form. Retrofitting those homes with electric heat pumps and water heaters and induction cooktops would be an expensive, politically-fraught undertaking.

Organizations such as the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council are pushing for state and regional air quality management districts to put in place tighter limits on outdoor emissions from gas appliances. If that happens, it could drive up the costs of those appliances. As homeowners and landlords increasingly switch to electric alternatives for space heating and heating water, keeping the gas line to a building just to supply a stove will become too expensive to justify.

But without targeted incentives, most homeowners and renters won’t be able to afford new heat pumps and induction cookers, and will be stuck paying for increasingly costly gas hookups.

“People are generally not aware of this issue,” said Hamilton. “Even our asthma patients who we educate about this, they just nod. They’d take a free electric range in a minute. But there’s no incentive to do that. There’s no source of funding—that’s key.” The frustration was evident in his voice when he said, “this is just not a regulated area.”

In Massachusetts, Steve Jones’ efforts helped persuade more than 100 boards of health (representing more than half of the state’s population, and including those from the three biggest cities of Boston, Worcester, and Springfield) to write to Gov. Charlie Baker to express concerns about the health impacts of natural gas consumption and infrastructure, and helped secure the adoption of an unprecedented resolution from the Massachusetts Medical Society, the nation’s oldest, recognizing that gas stoves contribute to childhood asthma.

The interior air pollution from gas cooking stoves may contribute to higher rates of Covid-19.

But while these gestures might boost awareness, they haven’t precipitated any changes to the state’s building codes or official state health guidance, nor have they unlocked any resources to help lower-income households make the transition from gas to electric cooking.

Before the pandemic shut everything down, Jones would drive down I-91 to Springfield from his home near Northampton to meet with officials running the city’s Healthy Homes Program, which aims to help reduce environmental triggers of asthma in the home and provides zero-interest loans to upgrade housing for lower-income households.

The Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America ranks Springfield as the most challenging city in the country to live with asthma. Jones wanted to put them in touch with counterparts in Worcester, who were using Department of Housing and Urban Development funding to rehabilitate rental housing, including installing wiring to enable a switch to electric cooking.

Now those conversations are on hold, but the risks haven’t gone away, said Jones.

“Covid-19 has dramatically demonstrated the health threats of living in small, crowded housing, typically apartments,” he said. “The interior air pollution from gas cooking stoves may contribute to the higher rates of Covid-19 in Chelsea, Lynn, Worcester, and Springfield.”


Nearly a quarter-century ago, a commentary appeared in The Lancet, the highly respected British medical journal. “The relation between respiratory health and indoor pollution from [gas] appliances has received considerable attention during the past 25 years; both positive and negative associations have been reported,” the authors noted. “Nevertheless, as the researchers suggest, continued investigation of the role of gas appliances and NO2 in the development and aggravation of respiratory disease is clearly warranted.”

The authors were commenting on a study published in the same issue of The Lancet that tracked 15,000 adults in East Anglia, U.K., and found that women who cooked primarily with gas stoves had a significantly higher risk of asthma-like symptoms and reduced lung functions in tests than those who didn’t. (Intriguingly, they found no significant association among men, perhaps explained by the fact that women spent more time in the kitchen cooking, and in the home generally.) They concluded: “Although the issue of indoor gas appliances, NO2, and respiratory health is not new, this remains an extremely common, possibly increasing, exposure throughout the world. The stakes are high.”

Despite those high stakes, the issue has received scant attention from policymakers and public health authorities up to this day. The natural gas industry points to this fact as an indication that there is nothing for homeowners to worry about, and that its product is safe to burn in the home.

Audrey Casey, a spokesperson for the American Public Gas Association (APGA), a national trade group for municipally-owned gas utilities, flatly denied any link between gas cooking and asthma, despite the emerging consensus from the scientific community. “The risks to respiratory health from NO2 documented in the scientific literature are not associated with gas stoves,” Casey said in an email message. “The association between the presence of a natural gas cooking appliance along with the increases in asthma in children is not supported by data-driven investigations that control for other factors that can contribute to asthma and other respiratory issues.”

She also noted that the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), which oversees safety and performance standards for consumer appliances like water heaters, furnaces, and stoves, and the EPA “do not view gas ranges as a significant contributor to adverse air quality or a health hazard in their technical or public information literature, guidance, or requirements.”

While the EPA does not regulate indoor air quality, it does provide extensive information through its Indoor Air Quality program, based on its decades of analysis of the same pollutants found in outdoor air. The EPA includes NO2 on its list of asthma triggers; “unvented combustion appliances, e.g. gas stoves” is first on its list of primary sources of NO2 indoors.

“Existing regulations—including from the CPSC—have found no health or safety risk associated with normal use of gas appliances,” the APGA’s Casey added.

Writ large, the industry’s core response to the scientific indictments laid out in the Rocky Mountain Institute and UCLA reports might be summarized this way: If gas appliances are so dangerous, why aren’t they regulated more tightly?

But critics of the industry ask precisely the same question: Given the evidence, which has mounted for decades, why hasn’t the CPSC or the CDC taken any action to limit indoor pollution from gas appliances, or issue updated guidance to health professionals and homeowners?

One possible reason, experts say, is that it’s not clear which US federal agency is responsible for regulating indoor air. The EPA has the authority, under the Clean Air Act, to regulate outdoor air. Should setting standards for the air we breathe indoors be under the purview of a health-focused institution like the CDC? Or should the CPSC take the lead?

In 1985, the chair of the CPSC wrote to the EPA, requesting help in determining whether gas stoves and appliances produced dangerous levels of nitrogen dioxide, and whether it should set targets for their manufacturers. The EPA directed its Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee, a panel of independent experts that reviews the latest science and issues recommendations on air quality standards, to address the question, which it did in a 37-page review on the health effects of exposure to NO2 from gas appliances. The committee characterized the evidence as “equivocal” and stopped short of recommending a standard, but recommended further investigation.

Other than replacement of gas stoves with electric stoves, fewer methods are currently available for indoor NO2 reduction.

Thirty-five years’ worth of subsequent investigation has yielded a large body of research confirming the risks, with little corresponding action from federal regulatory guardians of health and safety.

Change might be on the horizon. In an email message, Patty Davis, the deputy director of communications and press secretary for the CPSC, said that the agency was “aware of recent studies” and “looking at approaches for reviewing this latest research and understanding how this new information could be used to potentially update recommendations for indoor exposure levels and the development of new, or update of existing voluntary standards.” She noted that CPSC has, over the years, conducted emissions testing that led to the development of voluntary standards for nitrogen oxides from gas space heaters.

The CDC did not respond to a request for a telephone interview with a staff scientist, but in an email message, Ginger Chew, a deputy associate director for science within the CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health, said that, while the agency’s current guidance for health professionals on combustion sources and ventilation in the home was “up-to-date,” agency staff were nonetheless “actively reviewing the peer-reviewed literature” on indoor air quality and gas appliances. In the same email message, Chew also noted that one of the CDC’s scientists served on a recent expert working group investigating the effects of indoor environments on childhood asthma. Interestingly, that group’s 2017 report noted that, while HEPA filter technology has improved in recent years to capture particles in indoor air, only one technology offers similar promise on the cooking front: “Other than replacement of gas stoves with electric stoves,” the report stated, “fewer methods are currently available for indoor NO2 reduction.”

Until there’s more robust action from these agencies, Jones argues at the bare minimum doctors should be asking patients about the presence of gas appliances in their homes. He’s not alone: In a commentary published in September, one pediatrician in the Bay Area compared the risks associated with gas appliances to those posed by leaded gasoline until it was phased out in the 1980s.

“If a child with asthma is seen by a healthcare provider, the provider should ask about what kind of stove they have at home,” Jones said. “There’s absolutely enough evidence for that.”

But most parents are left to fend for themselves. Ellie Goldberg, who like Jones has worked to spread the word in Massachusetts on indoor gas pollution, agreed. As an advocate for children with chronic health conditions in the local school system in Newton, Massachusetts, she says she first became aware of the science connecting gas with asthma in the early 1980s, when she served on an asthma-focused subcommittee of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

“I began seeing the literature develop about combustion byproducts indoors from gas appliances,” she said, “and that’s when I saw information on gas as one of the inflammatory triggers for asthma.”

When she moved with her two young daughters, one of whom has asthma, to a home in Newton in 1986—the same year the CPSC asked the EPA for guidance on the subject—she made the switch from gas to electric. “There was no way I was going to move into a house with gas,” she said. “You do everything you can as a parent to lower the risks and exposures.”

Goldberg, of course, was lucky enough to have had options and access to information. Over three decades later, many lower-income Americans, Seals noted, simply don’t.

“The idea that our homes are more polluted than outdoors, even in cities,” Seals said, “is just a staggering fact.”


This article was originally published on Undark. Read the original article.

Jonathan Mingle is a freelance writer and a 2020 Alicia Patterson Foundation Fellow. He is the author of “Fire and Ice: Soot, Solidarity, and Survival on the Roof of the World,” about the health and climate effects of black carbon pollution, and his work has appeared in The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, Quartz, Atlas Obscura, and the Los Angeles Times, among other publications.

Taking fish out of fish feed can make aquaculture a more sustainable food source

Taking fish out of fish feed can make aquaculture a more sustainable food source

Pallab Sarker, Associate Research Professor of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz     

 

<span class="caption">Farmed red tilapia, Thai Mueang, Thailand.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="link rapid-noclick-resp" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/red-tilapia-fish-farming-tubtim-fish-economic-royalty-free-image/1201463699" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Kittichai Boonpong / EyeEm via Getty Images">Kittichai Boonpong / EyeEm via Getty Images</a></span>
Farmed red tilapia, Thai Mueang, Thailand. Kittichai Boonpong/EyeEm via Getty Images
The big idea

 

Aquaculture, or fish farming, is the world’s fastest growing food production sector. But the key ingredients in commercial fish feed – fishmeal and fish oil – come from an unsustainable source: small fish, such as anchovies and herring, near the base of ocean food webs.

My colleagues and I have developed a high-performing, fish-free aquaculture feed that replaces these traditional ingredients with several types of microalgae – abundant single-celled organisms that form the very bottom of the food chain in fresh and saltwater ecosystems around the world. To test this approach, we developed our feed for Nile tilapia – the world’s second-most farmed fish, exceeded only by carp.

Our research showed that tilapia fed our fish-free diet grew significantly better, achieving 58% higher weight gain than tilapia fed conventional feed. The resulting cost per kilogram of tilapia raised on our feed was lower than for fish raised on conventional commercial feed. And our feed yielded a higher level of a key fatty acid that is important for human health, DHA omega-3, in the resulting tilapia fillets.

Infographic of marine food chain
Infographic of marine food chain
Why it matters

About 19 million tons of wild fish – some 20% of the total quantity caught around the world – are rendered into fish meal and fish oil every year, even though 90% of these harvested fish are fit for human consumption. Analysts project that aquaculture feed demands for fish meal and fish oil could outstrip the supply of small forage fish, also known as prey or bait fish, by 2037. If this happens, it could have disastrous consequences for human food security and marine ecosystems.

Aquaculture feeds can also contain soy and corn ingredients from industrial farms on land that generate large amounts of water pollution. Fish can’t fully digest these ingredients, so they end up in aquaculture wastewater. Just like wastewater from cattle or poultry farms, effluent from fish farms can be a serious pollution source. What’s more, these crops could be used for direct human consumption.

Handful of pelletized fish feed made from microalgae.
Handful of pelletized fish feed made from microalgae.

For all of these reasons, developing fish-free fish feed is a key leverage point for reforming aquaculture so that it helps to conserve natural ecosystems instead of damaging them. Reducing pressure on forage fish will strengthen global marine fisheries. Our work also shows that it is possible to improve the human health benefits of eating farmed tilapia by manipulating the fishes’ diet.

How we do our work

We developed our fish-free feed formula in a series of experiments over six years. First, we evaluated how well fish could digest specific varieties of marine microalgae. Then we conducted separate experiments to see how well fish grew using these individual ingredients as replacements for either fish meal or fish oil.

For this feed we used two types of marine microalgae. One is a waste product left over after another type of omega-3 fatty acid, called EPA, has been extracted from the microalga for use in human nutritional supplements. This is the first proof of concept for a tilapia feed that eliminates fish meal and fish oil while improving growth metrics and the resulting nutritional quality of the fish.

Our feed is a substantial improvement over other commercially available feed products. There are some existing fish-free feeds that use soy, corn and other plant-based ingredients, but terrestrial vegetable oils within these feeds lack long chain omega-3 fatty acids. As a result, they produce fish fillets with lower nutritional value.

Microalgae ingredients don’t have this problem. Researchers have been experimenting with using microalgae to replace either fishmeal or fish oil in aquaculture feeds, but there haven’t yet been any fully fish-free microalgae blend feeds available in the market. We hope that ours will be the first.

The other major challenge in developing a commercially successful fish-free feed is achieving a competitive edge over conventional feed on cost and fish growth performance. Our research showed promising results for these factors as well.

Farm employee scoops fish feed into pond
Farm employee scoops fish feed into pond
What’s next

We currently have a patent pending for our formula and hope to work with the aquafeed industry, ingredient suppliers and sustainable aquaculture entrepreneurs to bring it to market. The major challenge will be achieving a consistent ingredient supply in order to produce large quantities on an industrial scale.

We’re also working now to develop fish-free feeds for other aquaculture species, including salmonids, a group that includes trout and salmon. Unlike tilapia, which eat a primarily vegetarian diet, these species are predators, so farming them accounts for most of the fishmeal and fish oil used in aquaculture feeds. Successfully replacing fishmeal and fish oil with microalgae in salmonid feed would be a major advance toward more sustainable aquaculture.

Read more:

Pallab Sarker and other participants in the research described in this article have received funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture; the Sherman Fairchild Professorship, Dean of the Faculty and Vranos family gift at Dartmouth College; the Dean of Social Sciences and Executive Vice Chancellor at the University of California Santa Cruz; and the National Sea Grant Aquaculture Federal Funding Opportunity.

Trump Strutted Like a Player, But Also Got Played

Trump Strutted Like a Player, But Also Got Played

Timothy L. O’Brien                December 14, 2020

 

(Bloomberg Opinion) — Anyone still clinging to the idea that Donald Trump is a crafty strategist who furthered his goals by corrupting everyone around him during an unspooled and vindictive presidency might want to consider, instead, that Trump himself was often gamed — at least when it comes to some of the signature policies that will define his administration. To be sure, Trump unleashed torrents of dangerous vitriol that made it safe for his party and supporters to embrace racial, economic and cultural divisions more openly and enthusiastically. And Trump’s stagecraft was certainly sui generis, tethered to outre mythmaking and serial fabulism. But apart from propagating a cult of personality, Trump’s performance art rarely revolved around policy debates or goals. It just revolved around him. On the policy frontier, where voters’ lives are shaped and institutions are remodeled, others were in charge. Those people most likely regarded Trump as a useful foil, someone easy to manipulate or outmaneuver if you had the stomach and patience for it. There are myriad examples, but for now let’s focus on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Attorney General William Barr and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Each of those men embodies some traits needed to turn Trump into a sock puppet — or to simply keep him out of the way. They could be wily (McConnell, Barr, Powell), craven (McConnell, Barr) or courageous (Powell), but needed at least one of those attributes to achieve their goals. History will also probably judge each of them in proportion to how much their particular vices or virtues drove policy and procedure.“ At the risk of tooting my own horn, look at the majority leaders since L.B.J. and find another one who was able to do something as consequential as this,” McConnell, a history buff, told the New York Times after he rammed Justice Amy Coney Barrett onto the Supreme Court in October. McConnell regards his conservative reshaping of the federal judiciary as his signature accomplishment, and his legacy goes well beyond the Supreme Court. He has pressed the Senate to confirm at least 229 federal court appointments during Trump’s presidency, and, for the first time in 40 years, hasn’t left a left a single vacancy on district and circuit courts — even if that has meant repopulating the judiciary with young, white men bearing threadbare resumes. Trump didn’t have a sophisticated, informed view of the judiciary before becoming president. But he let McConnell transform such traditionally liberal venues as the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals because the senator sustained him in other ways. McConnell ran interference when Trump was impeached. He helped court Trump’s incendiary political base. He kept to the shadows when Trump attacked the Black Lives Matter movement. He remained silent when Trump savaged the integrity of the presidential election. McConnell, according to those close to him, held Trump in low regard but protected him anyway to feed his own political ambitions, further fuel his fundraising apparatus and go about dismantling the federal government. McConnell’s fealty and machinations came home to roost this year when Trump failed to effectively respond to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Senate was left so broken it appears unable to pass a second coronavirus relief package even though it has bipartisan support. It’s not clear yet whether McConnell, content to wield power for power’s sake alone, will pay any penalties for cuddling with Trump. But there’s no question that he has spun the president like a top the last several years whenever one of his own goals was in play. Then there’s Barr, who, when asked last year whether his ward-heeler’s advocacy for Trump has tainted his legacy and his reputation in the legal community, responded with trademark indifference: “I’m at the end of my career. … Everyone dies.” Barr has been a longstanding proponent of an unrestrained imperial presidency, and those views took root long before he encountered Trump. But he went out of his way to audition for his Justice Department job because he undoubtedly saw Trump as a useful vehicle for furthering those aims. Among other things, Barr helped Trump end-run Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation, gave Trump the latitude to misuse federal force on U.S. streets, helped protect White House advisers on the wrong side of the law, knee-capped federal prosecutors investigating matters close to Trump and helped give early credence to Trump’s claims that the presidential election was rigged before later reversing himself. Trump grew weary with Barr after the attorney general refused to rush a Justice Department probe of how law enforcement went about investigating the president, but Barr initiated the investigation to begin with because he shared Trump’s belief that the deep state was out to get him. Barr reportedly worked hard to make sure that a federal investigation into President-elect Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, was kept under wraps during the election, but one wonders, given Barr’s record, how the investigation was started in the first place. Trump harbored authoritarian designs well before he intersected with Barr, but it’s Barr who tried to build a throne for the president — and taught Trump how to go about it. Powell, inhabiting the wonky and cloistered confines of the Federal Reserve, is the brighter tale here. An articulate, compassionate and relatively soft-spoken member of Trumplandia, Powell runs a financially powerful institution that Trump has repeatedly tried to strong-arm during his presidency. “Who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?” Trump once asked. Powell endured all of this with great calm and confidence, managing to win plaudits as one of the best Fed leaders of the modern era. He’s also been directly responsible for helping the U.S. economy weather the Covid-19 pandemic. He’s well aware that the Federal Reserve Act is meant to protect his independence from the White House, and he’s demonstrated repeated bravery charting his own course despite Trump’s interference. Asked during a congressional hearing if he’d pack up and leave if Trump tried to fire him, Powell said three times that he wouldn’t. “The law clearly gives me a four-year term, and I intend to serve it,” he responded. Trump pressured Powell to adopt rate cuts that would stoke the economy in the short run, but Powell largely made such calls on the merits. He also became one of the strongest voices in the government for using federal powers to support the financial well-being of average workers and the lives and livelihoods of those bowled over by the pandemic. To get there, he essentially ignored Trump — and expanded the Fed’s mandate and mission along the way. Powell’s tenure is a reminder that Trump can’t corrupt people willy-nilly. They have to be primed for it beforehand. And bad things didn’t happen during Trump’s time in office because he landed in Washington with a fully realized plan. Bad outcomes took root because Trump was surrounded by bad actors, some of whom knew exactly how to play him.

Defeated, lying, narcissist ex-President Trump will make a perfect ‘Florida man’ | Opinion

Defeated, lying, narcissist ex-President Trump will make a perfect ‘Florida man’ | Opinion

Fabiola Santiago                               December 9, 2020

 

Step aside Congressman Matt Gaetz, Florida man personified, you’ve got real competition now.

The cast of ding-a-ling characters in the state is getting a major infusion of fresh specimens as a result of the 2020 election.

GOP-friendly Florida, the big loser, inherits the Trumps as residents.

The ex-president (feels good to say that, exhaling) will reside in stately Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach and indications are that daughter Ivanka, husband Jared Kushner and their children have plans to head farther south.

Adiós, Donald Trump. I won’t forgive or forget what you did to my Miami | Opinion

They just plunked down $30 million for a plot of land on Indian Creek, an island village in Miami-Dade County.

It’s supposedly not only a move to be close to daddy.

CNN reported, quoting a source who works with the family, that the first daughter has big political ambitions — like a future run for the governorship of Florida, experience apparently not required although residency is, at least seven years.

President Donald Trump&#x002019;s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach is now officially the president&#x002019;s residence.
President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach is now officially the president’s residence.
Trump show in Florida

So brace yourselves, Floridians: Here comes “The Trumps Take Over Florida,” a new reality show starring the defeated, lying, narcissist ex-president and his entitled children.

We might as well laugh, people.

What’s the alternative?

Besides the sunny weather, the soon-to-be former occupants of the White House are attracted by the friendly accommodations made to conspiracy theorists, coronavirus deniers, and those with a healthy appetite for good old-fashioned corruption.

Your show host: The Republican Party of Florida.

The plot has been laid out well into 2024.

Supporting characters — filming location, Miami — are still auditioning.

But they will surely include, according to Facebook friends in-the-know: Lolita Caravana leading the red car, flag-waving caravan on the Turnpike from Miami to Palm Beach for a weekend bash at Mar-a-Lago and Pepe Ota at Versailles haunting for commie sympathizers, or Democrats, or anyone with a camera willing to turn a clown into an “influencer.”

Democrats laughed at these characters in 2020, but they made Trump’s victory possible, if only in very special Floriduh, which annexed territory in Miami-Dade during the last four years.

They’ll be good for a few more laughs in 2021 and beyond.

In Florida, Biden couldn’t shake Trump’s lie that Democrats are radical socialists | Opinion

Roles for DeSantis, Gaetz

Presiding over the made-for-TV show, master of ceremonies of the political revelry: Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has collected an impressive list of nicknames for his disastrous handling of the pandemic, the latest #DeathDeSantis, twice trending on Twitter this week.

Ron DeSastre also has unleashed an all-too-real plot to make Florida the first Fascist police state in the union, where protesters are criminalized.

His idol dethroned, Gov. Ron DeSantis is fashioning a fascist, gun-happier Florida | Opinion

He’s not funny at all, really, unless you count his campaign commercial using his small children, playing with toy blocks, to plug Trump’s wall — or his mask-less high-fiving Trump supporters at a Sanford rally then wiping his nose.

Come to think of it, DeSantis has outdone Gaetz, who cinched the No. 1 spot with his bizarre fixation on Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Gaetz made his Bronx colleague a household name in Florida.

Then, he threatened Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, who was spilling the beans on the president, and made fun of the coronavirus by wearing a gas mask on Capitol Hill.

Full disclosure: I’m partial to Gaetz’s leading man role as “Florida man” incarnate since he pronounced my name perfectly on Fox News.

But moving forward, between DeSantis, Gaetz, and the ex-president alone, the Trump show scenes will just write themselves.

Last but not least, there’s immigrant “be best” Melania, who will hopefully be happier now that her first lady contract expires. Pandemic or not, with her living in the state, the paparazzi won’t be filing for unemployment in Florida’s tightwad system.

See, the Trumps could even be a boon to Florida, no need to hire expensive Pitbull to do a commercial.

Be positive, Florida

There’s a handy expression in Spanish that comes to mind: “al mal tiempo, buena cara.”

It advises to put on a brave face in stormy weather.

The hurricane looming is that we’re far from done with the Trumps in the Sunshine State — or his influence on the Republican Party, the lasting ill.

The really, really good news is that the rest of the country knew better.

The White House is safe.

Florida, getting its just desserts, inherits the clown.

Showtime!

Study: Birds Are Linked to Happiness Levels

EcoWatch

Study: Birds Are Linked to Happiness Levels

Carly Nairn                   December 8, 2020

Study: Birds Are Linked to Happiness Levels
A new study demonstrates the link between birds and happiness. TorriPhoto / Getty Images
A new study reveals that greater bird biodiversity brings greater joy to people, according to recent findings from the German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research. In fact, scientists concluded that conservation is just as important for human well-being as financial security.

The study, published in Ecological Economics, focused on European residents, and determined that happiness correlated with a specific number of bird species.

“According to our findings, the happiest Europeans are those who can experience numerous different bird species in their daily life, or who live in near-natural surroundings that are home to many species,” says lead author Joel Methorst, a doctoral researcher at the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center, the iDiv and the Goethe University in Frankfurt.

The authors calculated that being around fourteen additional bird species provided as much satisfaction as earning an additional $150 a month.

For the study, researchers used data from the 2012 “European Quality of Life Survey” to explore the connection between species diversity around homes, towns and cites, and how it relates to satisfaction. More than 26,000 adults from 26 European countries were surveyed.

According to the study authors, birds are some of the best indicators of biological diversity in any given area because they are usually seen or heard in their environments, especially in urban areas. However, more bird species were found near natural green spaces, forested areas and bodies of water.

In the U.S., birding has become a more common and accessible hobby during the pandemic.

Although not new, thousands of amateurs and expert birders participate in Audubon’s long-running annual Christmas Bird Count, a three-week activity to count birds in a specific area for the group’s data compilation.

“Nature conservation therefore not only ensures our material basis of life, but it also constitutes an investment in the well-being of us all,” says Methorst.

Trump Just Broke Through the Last Level of Neo-Fascism

Trump Just Broke Through the Last Level of Neo-Fascism

Michael Tomasky                           December 10, 2020
Tasos Katopodis/Getty
Tasos Katopodis/Getty

 

Never mind his latest Twitter storm of complaints and threats. Or do mind them, because their very desperation proves that it’s dawning on the Undapper Don that his chances of staying in the White House much longer are, as the mayor of Munchkin City put it, morally, ethically, spiritually, physically, positively, absolutely, undeniably, and reliably dead. He’ll see for what will probably be the first time in his life that there’s no judge he can buy (including the one he assumed he was buying, who has at least shown herself to be above mob-style corruption; hey, we’ll take it), no fixer he can bribe, no idiot cousin he can put on the payroll to fix things.

For the first known time in 74 years, Trump morality has met normal morality, and normal morality has won.

Which raises the question: With his legal options all but exhausted (we’re waiting on this Texas case, which seems more insane than most of them), what will Trump do next? Perhaps more concerningly, what will his followers do? Until this week, Trump and they could keep entertaining the fiction that some brave soul would step forward and, within the parameters of “the system,” somehow fix this and save him.

Rubbing Trump’s Face in His Loss Isn’t Just Fun—It’s Important

I’ve been writing lately that Trump foes should see him as a figure of derision and take joy in mocking him, and I believe that. That kind of moral cleansing is mentally healthy and necessary, after what he’s done to our brains for four years. But in saying that I don’t mean to make light of the threat Trump and his backers pose. That threat is still terrifying, both over the next 40-plus days and further into the American future than I’d care to admit. We’d better be ready.

When they start writing histories of the Trump era, I think the one-line summary will be something like this: While some portion of his appeal was based on legitimate grievances of working-class people against elites, he awakened an authoritarian impulse among the citizenry that was far larger and more rabid, and more easily triggered, than most of us ever imagined.

That is, if you’d asked me back in, oh, 2013, when Donald Trump was still just the foolish corrupt narcissist most everybody knew he was, what portion of the American public would fall for neo-fascism, I’d have said 25 percent tops. But events have shown us that it’s more like 40. At least 35. That’s pretty frightening.

What do I mean by neo-fascism? It’s a fairly obvious set of criteria. Here are five essential ones, though there are others: blind loyalty to a leader who’s really more of a national father figure; belief that the leader is the state; belief that opposition to the leader is opposition to the state, and thus treason; conviction (instilled or ignited by the leader) that the source of the problems facing the good wholesome ethnic majority is some Other or collection of Others who must be ostracized if not banished; agreement that the rules and constraints of democratic order are sometimes useful and should be obeyed as long as one can obey them and win, because doing so confers a certain legitimacy, but if they have to be cast aside to hold power, then cast aside they must be. These principles animate every fascist regime in human history. They are at the heart of Trumpism, and they have drawn many more adherents than I’d have thought possible in this country.

Among advanced democracies, the United States is, if not unique in this regard, certainly more susceptible now than most. If a Trump came along in Denmark, say, would Denmark elect him? I doubt it. Ditto most European countries. Some would. Some have: Hungary, Poland, and Turkey. But I think most would not.

We, however, did. And now that that impulse has been awakened, putting it back to bed will be the work of a generation. Or two. The main thing that has to happen is that the system has to work well for enough working- and middle-class people again such that neo-fascism’s allures are diminished.

That means doing things that will help working-class people: a decent minimum wage, infrastructure, public investment in rural areas and small towns, and yes, the building of a greener economy that might be able to bring some new hope to places like my native West Virginia.

But the confounding irony of course is that the working-class people have been convinced that those things, or most of those things, are socialism, and so they don’t want them. Their voting patterns tell us they’d rather stay with a set of ideas and priorities that are frankly failing them. So the hope of changing this dynamic in the long term is slim. But we have to try.

And in the short term, by which I mean until Jan. 20? A lot of it depends on the father-leader. Given that we’ve already seen armed protesters surrounding a Michigan state official’s house, and the Arizona GOP suggest that its members should be ready to martyr themselves for Trump, it’s hard to say. One casual comment from the father-leader could set something off. Or he might not even have to say a thing. If people are willing to die for him, anything is possible.

Go back over my list above of the five criteria of neo-fascism with special focus on number five. That’s exactly where we are now.

Democratic trappings were of use to Trump as long as he was the winner as he was in 2016. But this time around, he lost. Then he tried everything he knew to try within the democratic system (the recounts); then he tried audacious and outrageous things that no one has ever tried before but still were not against any democratic law (pressuring Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, summoning those two Michigan legislators to the White House). None of it worked. So there are no more democratic options.

Which means other options might now be pursued. So yeah, be on your guard. And, uh, why did Trump replace all those people at the Pentagon anyway? Remember that? Could be nothing. But it could be… something. The one thing we know is that he has no conscience holding him back.

What Joe Biden could do to bring down drug costs

VOX

What Joe Biden could do to bring down drug costs

Pharma is having its best moment in years. What does it mean for Biden’s health care agenda?
President-elect Joe Biden may have a difficult time reining in drug prices, given the drug industry’s renewed political clout during the Covid-19 pandemic. The Washington Post/Getty Images

 

Just as Joe Biden prepares to take over the presidency, the pharmaceutical industry is having its best political moment in years. Numerous Covid-19 vaccines are on the verge of approval, promising an (eventual) end to the pandemic that has upended every American’s life for the last nine months.

Reducing prescription drug costs has long been a top priority for voters. But given the prospect of a divided government, the other health care issues likely to dominate the Biden administration’s attention, and pharma’s renewed political clout, lobbyists and health care experts are skeptical there will be significant action to rein in drug costs over the next few years.

“Now that it’s looking like we’ll have successful vaccines, drug companies could come out of this pandemic as heroes that saved us from the evil virus,” Larry Levitt, executive vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me. “That will make it harder to demonize the pharmaceutical industry in a fight over drug pricing.”

There are two kinds of drug pricing problems. One is the actual list prices set by drug companies, which most patients and health systems don’t actually pay, but still set the top line from which various discounts and rebates are applied. (And for the uninsured, that is their price unless they get some kind of assistance.) List prices are more difficult to control, without the more aggressive kind of price-setting that pharma and many lawmakers would balk at. The other issue is out-of-pocket costs, or what patients must pay under their insurance plan. That may be easier to fix; it’s just a matter of finding the money to improve, for example, the Medicare drug benefit so patients have smaller obligations when they fill a prescription.

There could be an opportunity for incremental improvements through Congress. A bipartisan Senate bill would serve as an obvious template for a compromise, if the Senate remains in Republican hands and with Democrats holding onto the House.

As one health care lobbyist told me, lawmakers are cognizant that after years of fierce partisan divisions that have stymied even small-bore improvements to US health care, “the voting public needs to see points on the board.”

But any legislating could still be difficult, as even small coalitions in the House and the Senate can make it hard for bills to move forward, and pharma still wields tremendous influence within the US Capitol.

As for President-elect Biden’s regulatory agenda, he will have to decide how much to prioritize drug pricing alongside improving Obamacare and reversing some of Trump’s actions on Medicaid. Pharmaceuticals are one area where the Trump administration has been more creative, but they also have failed to actually put many of their proposals in place. Biden could, in theory, pick up and build on some of the Trump initiatives. But many experts are skeptical he will.

Health care activists are still pushing for big changes. The US public still wants drug affordability addressed. But the context of the debate has shifted. On top of the vaccine news, drug prices have not been rising as quickly as in previous years, and the headline-grabbing price gouging appears to have subsided from the days when Martin Shkreli was briefly the face of the industry.

Taken together, experts have lowered their expectations about significant reforms happening any time soon, even though many Americans are still struggling to afford the medications they need.

“I think now, you don’t have all those stories about insulin and Epipen, plus you have positive stories about vaccines and other drugs,” Walid Gellad, director of the Center for Pharmaceutical Policy and Prescribing at the University of Pittsburgh, says. “You don’t have as fertile an environment for more extreme drug measures.”

There could be targeted action in Congress if everybody gets on board

A bipartisan bill introduced last year by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) and passed out of the Senate Finance Committee could be the initial template for drug pricing legislation under the Biden administration. As the lobbyist told me, if Senate Republicans and Senate Democrats can agree on a plan, that will put intense pressure on the House to come to an agreement.

The bill would penalize drug companies for any price hikes that are higher than inflation, requiring them to pay rebates to the Medicare program to make up the difference. For patients, the Finance Committee’s legislation would also redesign Medicare Part D benefits and cap patients’ out-of-pocket obligations at no more than $3,100 a year (and many would pay far less than that). The Congressional Budget Office projected that the bill would save beneficiaries a combined $20 billion over 10 years.

Both of those provisions are shared in concept, if not in all the details, with the major drug pricing bill passed by House Democrats in 2019, indicating they would represent a common ground between the two chambers if Republicans retain control of the Senate.

The Senate Finance bill didn’t get past the committee stage, partly because Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was unenthused and President Donald Trump did little to apply pressure on reticent Republicans. Biden could try to use his bully pulpit to get a deal done.

The legislation “just lacked the push from the president,” Gellad said. Under Biden, “I think you might actually see a push from the president.”

Other policies cracking down on anti-competitive practices by drug makers have earned support from lawmakers in both parties. For example, a bipartisan Senate bill from Grassley and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and a plan sponsored by a group of House Republicans would bar brand-name manufacturers from making “pay for delay” payments to generic drug companies. Those arrangements currently can push back the introduction of generic competitors — one of the main tools in the US health system for limiting drug prices after the monopolies granted to new drugs expire — for months or more.

But more direct negotiations between Medicare and drug companies, a popular campaign talking point for Biden and other Democrats, are likely off the table unless Democrats can win both Georgia Senate runoffs, and with them a narrow Senate majority. Republicans not named Donald Trump have never warmed to the idea.

The health care lobbyist told me that a deal agreed to by Biden, McConnell, and Senate Democrats should be able to get through the House, too, even if the left and right wings balk.

“Pelosi can’t say no. McCarthy can’t say no,” the lobbyist said. “They can bring enough of their guys.”

Biden will have to decide whether to press on with any of Trump’s executive actions

The Trump health department has been busy on drug prices. They’ve authorized drug importation from other countries and released a bevy of proposals to bring American drug prices more in line with other countries.

The trouble has been in their lack of follow-through, which means the Biden administration will largely be left to decide whether to pick up Trump’s policies and run with them or start from scratch on their own.

But if nothing else, Trump’s aggressive posture toward the pharma industry may give Biden more leeway to be ambitious during his own presidency.

“Despite the Trump Administration’s failure to implement its most ambitious drug pricing policy goals, the administration’s rhetoric has been successful in normalizing and making the case for these bold reforms,” Rachel Sachs, a law professor at Washington University in St. Louis, wrote in Health Affairs shortly after the election.

International reference pricing has been the calling card of Trump’s agenda, though his administration’s attempt to finalize it has been done in a legally shoddy, last-minute way that experts think leaves it vulnerable to the legal challenges already filed by the drug industry. In brief, under this “most favored nation” proposal, Medicare would not pay a higher price for drugs than other similarly wealthy countries do.

Sachs suggested in her article that Biden’s team could reevaluate the referencing pricing model, but refine it to make it less administratively complex. They could also shift the focus from automatic price controls to an independent review board that would take the foreign prices into account while setting its own recommended prices for Medicare.

Biden could also revisit the Obama administration’s plan to change how Medicare pays physicians for certain drugs, which was introduced too late to be fully implemented before Obama and Biden left office, Levitt said.

The federal government theoretically has expansive powers to try to curb drug prices. Progressives argue the federal government could use existing authorities to effectively revoke patents issued to drug makers if their medicines were developed through substantial public investment. It is an idea with a lot of purchase on the left and something even Biden’s newly announced nominee to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, Xavier Becerra, has sounded receptive to under certain circumstances.

Activists argue that the urgency of reducing drug costs for Americans has become only more apparent during the Covid-19 pandemic, even if pharmaceutical companies try to use their success with vaccines to their political advantage.

“If there is anything that this pandemic should have taught us, it’s that something should be done. We shouldn’t allow ourselves to think it’s not possible,” Dana Brown, who promotes drug pricing reform for the Democracy Collaborative, told me. “Can we literally afford the status quo? For me, the answer is no.”

Progressives will try to keep the pressure on Biden to go big. But there is a belief among savvy DC observers that drug pricing may be crowded out by other health care priorities. As Rob Smith, an analyst at the investment advisory firm Capital Alpha, wrote in a note in the days after the election: “We think drug pricing will fall to a third or fourth tier issue for the next administration.”

What Trade War? Trump Heartland Sees Record Farm Sales to China

What Trade War? Trump Heartland Sees Record Farm Sales to China

Bloomberg News                            December 8, 2020

(Bloomberg) — Measured by the bushel, the U.S.-China relationship has never been stronger. Through the trade war and open hostilities at the highest political levels, pig farmers in China and crop farmers in the U.S. have become increasingly interdependent. Already America’s biggest customer of soybeans and sorghum, for this season China bought an unprecedented 11.2 million metric tons of corn, up nearly 1,300% compared with pre-trade-war purchases.

For the moment, both sides seem happy. The American imports have helped China feed its hog herd, which is recovering faster than expected after the African swine fever outbreak created a shortage of the country’s most staple protein. Meanwhile, U.S. farm profits are at a seven-year high, riding China’s demand and additional support from federal aid to agriculture.

China’s bought nearly 30 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, the most for this point in the season since 1991 and 57% of America’s export sales. For sorghum, which is also a substitute for corn, China accounts for 80% of sales. Corn purchases, once negligible, rocketed to almost 30%.

But the deeper reliance is tenuous. As the trade war showed, that market can quickly evaporate, and experts warn that any number of geopolitical events – an incident in the South China Sea, for example, or further activity in Hong Kong – could end with another chill on Chinese imports.

“American agriculture has to be careful of putting too many eggs in the China basket,” said Tom Vilsack, who served as Agriculture Secretary from 2009 to 2017 and has emerged as a leading candidate for the position under President-elect Joe Biden. “I think the lesson that should be learned from the last couple of years is the need for American agriculture to continue to diversify so there’s always somewhere else the products can go, other than the storage bins.”

For now, purchases are so big that traders are even drawing parallels with the Soviet era’s “Great Grain Robbery,” another huge agricultural trade at a time of tensions between superpowers. Overall, the U.S. has nearly exhausted its export capacity.

“We are loading boats as fast as we can,” Gregg Doud, the U.S. Trade Representative’s chief negotiator for agriculture, said in an interview with Bloomberg at the end of October. “North of 95% of what can possibly be done in 2020 is already booked, and a huge chunk of that is soybeans to China.”

The farm belt, which voted overwhelmingly for the re-election of Donald Trump, is waiting to see how Biden will approach trade negotiations with China. Trump’s North American and Chinese trade deals, plus Covid-linked farm aid, have sustained the agricultural economy, said Jim Putnam, who grows corn and soy in Minnesota. “I was never a big Trump fan but he did get the Chinese attention with Phase 1,” he said. “I hope that the Biden administration can keep things going.”

Even if relations improve, China’s appetite for American crops reflects a combination of factors that won’t remain static: the strength of China’s post-Covid economy, the unanticipated consequences of the African swine fever recovery, and the limitations on the country’s own corn production.

When the disease killed roughly half the country’s herd after China first reported outbreaks in 2018, traders projected a five-year timeline for recovery. It’s been far faster. The herd is now at 80% of its pre-disease levels. But the industry has changed. Multi-story “hog hotels” and large industrial producers have replaced the backyard farms where pigs grew fat on table scraps. The more professional operations mean hogs are eating more corn, soybean meal and other feed grains. “Everybody focuses on soybean trade, but as the Chinese livestock industry is professionalizing their feeding practices, it means not only the soybean meal demand will grow, but it also means the corn demand grow as well too,” Greg Morris, president of Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.’s Ag Services and Oilseeds unit, said at a recent investment conference. Outgoing U.S. President Trump has taken credit for the deal that resolved the two-year long trade war and required China to increase purchases of agricultural goods by 52% from 2017. As of the end of October, China had met 71% of the $36.5 billion target based on exports through August and sales scheduled for import by Dec. 31, according to the USTR.

“The recent increase in grain exports to China, and tighter grain supply and demand has driven commodity prices higher,” Pat Bowe, chief executive officer of grain handler Andersons Inc., said Tuesday at the company’s investor day. “A demand-led rally is stronger than a supply shortage as it usually has lasting clock power.”

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, at a separate industry event Tuesday, credited the rally in crop prices to a functioning trade policy with China achieved by the Trump administration. Still, he added that while China may not reach the target for purchases, U.S. shipments are well on their way to showing a significant increase in the first quarter of 2021.Others are skeptical about the influence of the trade deal. “China doesn’t adhere to trade policies because they’d like to, it only happens when there is a need,” said Dan Basse, president of Chicago-based consulting firm AgResource. “I think China would have bought the same amount of grain relative to having a phase one agreement or not.” China has already bought so much corn from the U.S. and Ukraine, traditionally its biggest supplier, that imports this year exceeded for the first time the 7.2 million ton quota set by the World Trade Organization. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services expects China’s purchases to triple to 22 million tons this season. Those are the projections that will inform U.S. farmers as they decide how to allocate their land for the 2021 growing season. Behind closed doors, American executives worry that they’re at a disadvantage. China closely guards the status of its reserves, and only its state-owned enterprises understand the full scale of the country’s demand. Typhoons in the northeast could have done serious damage to the country’s harvest or, as its agriculture minister said, this year could see a bumper crop. The amount of corn subject to lower tariffs is also opaque. Les Finemore, chief investment officer at commodity hedge fund Imbue, drew a parallel with what’s known as the Great Grain Robbery of the 1970s. Hiding a severe domestic crop failure, Soviets bought millions of tons of American wheat in a frenzied spree, driving global prices higher and heavily contributing to inflation in the U.S.

In China, the goal is self-sufficiency. President Xi Jinping visited a corn farm in Jilin in July, urging local authorities to protect the fertile soil in the region. If the country can improve its yield by 2.5% per year, it could meet domestic demand by 2029, according to Xu Weiping, a chief analyst with the agriculture ministry. The country is reallocating land from non-grain crops to corn. ChemChina also acquired Syngenta in 2017, and plans to use genetically modified crops and other technologies to help get the country to 90% self-sufficiency.

The Trump administration sought to add pressure on Beijing over its crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong, announcing sanctions Monday against 14 members of China’s National People’s Congress. Biden has said he expects to keep up pressure on Beijing over Hong Kong, but he’s unlikely to resort to unilateral sanctions to the extent that Trump has.

Even if the political relationship sours, China has been developing its global supply chain. As part of its Belt-and-Road Initiative, it has heavily invested in Brazil, the world’s top producer of soybeans, and in the Black Sea region. It has also developed its own commodity-trading powerhouse, with the acquisition of Noble Group’s agriculture arm and Dutch grain trader Nidera BV, now merged and renamed Cofco International Ltd.Despite the jumps in purchases, the scars of the trade war remain. Tariffs are still in place, a challenge the Biden administration will eventually have to deal with, said Joseph Glauber, a former USDA chief economist. The new president will also have to tackle issues such as intellectual property and business practices, which remain on the table.

Any sticking points over any of those issues could stress agricultural trade, as China’s tension with Australia is once again making clear. What began in 2018, when Canberra barred Huawei Technologies Co. from building its 5G network on national security concerns, has snowballed; this year, China moved to block imports of barley, wine, sugar, lobster, coal and copper ore.“ The issue has never really been about agricultural trade,” said Glauber. “The bigger issues have been outside of agriculture, and I think those are going to be the tough ones.”

North American farmers profit as consumers pressure food business to go green.

North American farmers profit as consumers pressure food business to go green.

By Karl Plume and Rod Nickel                              December 3, 2020

The Co-op Farming Model Might Help Save America's Small Farms | Civil Eats

CHICAGO/WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) – Beer made from rice grown with less water, rye planted in the off-season and the sale of carbon credits to tech firms are just a few of the changes North American farmers are making as the food industry strives to go green.

The changes are enabling some farmers to earn extra money from industry giants like Cargill, Nutrien and Anheuser-Busch. Consumers are pressuring food producers to support farms that use less water and fertilizer, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and use more natural techniques to maintain soil quality.

Investments in sustainability remain a tiny part of overall spending by the agriculture sector, which enjoyed healthy profits in 2020. They may help to head off more costly regulations down the road now that Democratic climate advocate Joe Biden was elected U.S. president.

Some companies, like farm retailer and fertilizer producer Nutrien , are also opening new revenue potential for farmers by monetizing the carbon their fields soak up. The companies say technology is improving measurement and tracking of carbon capture, although some environmental activists question the benefit of such programs and how sequestered greenhouse gas volumes can be verified.

Sustainable techniques farmers are adopting include refraining from tilling soil at times to preserve carbon. Some are adding an off-season cover crop of rye or grass to restore soil nutrients instead of applying heavy fertilizer loads over the winter that can contaminate local water supplies.

A study conducted by agriculture technology company Indigo Ag estimated that if U.S. corn, soy and wheat farmers employed no-till and cover crops on 15% of fields, they would generate an additional $600 million by reducing costs, bolstering soil productivity or selling carbon credits.

Indigo has a partnership with brewer Anheuser-Busch Inbev NV, which plans to buy 2.6 million bushels of rice this year grown with less water and nitrogen fertilizer than conventional rice. Anheuser-Busch said that is up from 2.2 million bushels last year and accounts for 10% of its U.S. rice supplies.

Bill Jones, the brewer’s manager of raw materials, said farmers voluntarily growing rice with a lower environmental impact along the sensitive Mississippi River would be less disruptive to supplies than having local authorities require such practices by legislating changes to water and nitrogen use.

“We look at supply chain security. I see this gaining traction,” he said, noting that Minnesota and other U.S. states and conservation districts worried about polluting the Mississippi are already introducing limits on how much manure farmers can spread on fields. Arkansas farmer Carson Stewart used the program for the first time this year, earmarking his entire 340-acre rice crop to Anheuser-Busch. Depending on milling quality, his rice may earn up to $1.50 a bushel more than conventional rice, a premium of about 27%, he said.

10 MILLION ACRE SHIFT

While companies expect Washington and Ottawa to grow more committed to funding and regulating sustainable farming, industry sources and activists said widespread adoption remains far off.

“They come with high up-front costs,” said Giana Amador, managing director at climate-focused NGO Carbon180. “We’re seeing a huge differentiation in quality among all these corporate commitments. “In September, privately held Cargill Inc. said it would help North American farmers shift 10 million acres to regenerative practices during the next 10 years by offering them financial support and training.

Pushed by demand for greener foods from food companies that buy its products, Cargill has already signed up 750 farmers to green programs, representing 300,000 acres, said Ryan Sirolli, Cargill’s director of row crop sustainability. With projects like one that pays Iowa farmers to leave soils untilled or to create field buffers to prevent fertilizer runoff, Cargill hopes to cut 30% of its supply chain greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade.

“We’ve done a lot to stop soil erosion. And we’ve had a reduction of 538 tons of CO2, which is the equivalent of taking 104 passenger cars off the road,” said Iowa farmer Lance Lillibridge, who estimates he will earn about $37 an acre in a Cargill pilot project this year.

Environmental groups and consumer activists are skeptical about such corporate sustainability pledges, noting that Cargill has not made good on its promise to eliminate deforestation from supply chains by 2020.

As more premium-paying buyers emerge, more farmers will be enticed into sustainable growing, said Devin Lammers, CEO of Gradable. The unit of input dealer Farmers Business Network matches farmers using sustainable practices with buyers such as Unilever, Tyson Foods and ethanol producer POET.

CARBON CREDITS

Some farmers are making money by verifying the amount of climate-warming emissions their fields soak up and selling carbon credits to polluting companies seeking to reduce their net emissions. Agribusiness companies call that a double win for farmers as their fields become healthier and they earn extra cash.

This week, Saskatchewan-based Nutrien said it was launching a sustainable agriculture program on 100,000 acres in the United States and Canada, with expansion planned later in South America and Australia.

Nutrien Chief Executive Chuck Magro estimated that farmers will earn an additional $50 per acre in profits under the program – $20 per acre for carbon credits and $30 per acre worth of higher crop yields.

The announcement followed Nutrien’s 2018 purchase of digital farming company Agrible, which helps farmers log reduced emissions and water use. Magro said in an interview that the aim is to enable farmers to use that data to sell carbon credits. He noted that previous efforts produced meagre returns that were not worth the effort for farmers who had to wade through hundreds of pages of documents.

Agriculture accounts for 3% of the global carbon credit market, but that looks to grow to 30% by 2050, Magro said. “We see carbon being the next big agricultural revolution,” he said.

Matt Coutts, chief investment officer of 100,000-acre Coutts Agro in Saskatchewan, plans to sell carbon credits through Nutrien for up to 10,000 acres per year of canola, lentils and spring wheat. He expects they could eventually generate at least C$75,000 in annual additional revenue. Ohio-based start-up Locus Agricultural Solutions helped Iowa farmer Kelly Garrett create 22,400 tonnes in carbon credits by verifying his fields locked in about 1.4 tonnes per acre from 2015 to 2019. Garrett received a check for 5,000 of those credits in November, after e-commerce platform Shopify bought them on the carbon trading marketplace Nori for $75,000.

“The ability to sell our carbon credits through the Nori system and help the rest of the world be more green is a wonderful benefit to our economy and our finances,” Garrett said.

Still, Nori noted that Microsoft Corp passed on a deal to buy most of Garrett’s remaining credits because they were not verified by on-farm soil tests. Nori deems individual soil tests too costly, and instead verifies its credits based on soil type, crops planted and other data, said Alexsandra Guerra, the company’s director of corporate development.

Microsoft declined to comment. Few North American farmers have gone through the vetting process Garrett underwent, which also limits supplies of the high-quality carbon credits that some buyers seek. Some critics say carbon saved from no-till farming can easily escape if the soil is tilled again. “Statements that soils can sequester all of our emissions and more are overstated … There’s no way we could make that shift fast enough to address the climate crisis,” said Tara Ritter, senior program associate with the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy. PAYING UP FRONT Despite those doubts, food companies are banking more on carbon capture and regenerative agriculture. General Mills offers farmers technical advice while other companies pay growers up front to adopt greener practices. PepsiCo, maker of Quaker Oats and Frito-Lay chips, pays farmers $10 an acre to plant cover crops over winter, which can reduce erosion and control weeds and insects.

This helps PepsiCo meet its sustainability targets and secure its food supply, said director of sustainable agriculture Margaret Henry. PepsiCo subsidized cover crops such as rye and radish last year across 50,000 Midwest acres and plans to grow the program further.

Henry pointed to an added benefit: Cover crops soak up excess moisture, making many fields ready for spring planting two weeks earlier than fields that lay fallow.” We want this to be a win win for the long term,” she said.

(Reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago and Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba; Editing by Caroline Stauffer)