Rumors of ‘filtration camps’ and mass deportation in Ukraine raise old USSR fears
Cassandra Vinograd – March 25, 2022
Rumors of ‘filtration camps’ and mass deportation in Ukraine raise old USSR fears
The reports have filtered out for days: Mass kidnappings, forced deportations, Ukrainians spirited across the border to Russia.
The Ukrainian foreign ministry said Thursday that 6,000 residents of the besieged city of Mariupol had been “forcibly deported” by Russian forces — stripped of their passports and identity documents — and taken to Russia as “hostages.”
Like much in this war, the claims have been impossible to independently verify. A statement from the foreign ministry Thursday echoed allegations and details released by Mariupol’s city council in recent days, stating that “several thousand” of its residents had been taken to “filtration camps” in Russia before being “redirected to remote cities.”
Russia, in turn, has cited the “evacuations” of more than 380,000 people from Ukraine to its territory.
Communications are sporadic or down, and no foreign journalists are left in the city. That’s meant relying on the rare videos that have emerged from the city — and on the testimony of those who’ve managed to escape.
Yet the language — “filtration camps” — and the imagery of mass deportations are particularly resonant, evoking a dark chapter in Russian history.
The trauma and memory of mass deportations inflicted by the then-Soviet Union are still fresh. An estimated 3 million people on the USSR’s borders were rounded up and forcibly deported to remote parts of Siberia and Central Asia between 1936 and 1952, according to the United Nations refugee agency. Some 60,000 were Poles and Ukrainians.
The echoes of history — and their power — have not been lost on Mariupol’s city council.
“What the occupiers are doing today is familiar to the older generation, who saw the horrific events of World War II, when the Nazis forcibly captured people,” it said in a statement March 19. “It is hard to imagine that in the 21st century people will be forcibly deported to another country.”
Service members of pro-Russian troops are seen atop of an armoured vehicle (Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters)
With verifiable information limited and access to Mariupol impossible, the claims could be true. They also could be enhanced by the fog of war — or elements of a parallel information war, in which messaging is key to enforcing each side’s narrative.
Regardless, the reports have caught the attention of Ukraine’s supporters, humanitarians and even the White House. Department of State spokesman Ned Price said the United States was trying to corroborate the “very concerning” accounts, “which have in fact continued to mount.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that his government was trying to verify the exact number of citizens who had been forcibly deported, alleging that Russia was trying to forcibly conscript many into its army. That followed a March 22 statement from Ukraine’s defense minister stating that Russia was forcing men in occupied territories of Ukraine to conscript as “cannon fodder.”
On Thursday, Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman said prosecutors were investigating the “illegal deportation” of more than 2,000 children to Russia.
She said Ukrainians have been taken to different cities across Russia, citing the case of a family from the left bank of Mariupol who were taken out of a bomb shelter, loaded onto buses and taken to the Russian city of Taganrog. After being interrogated by Russian intelligence, she said, they were put on another train.
“They last got in touch with us on March 20,” she added.
Moscow ‘plotting to seal off Crimea’ to stop ‘panicking Russians’ from fleeing
Kate Buck – March 24, 2022
Vladimir Putin is prepare to seal off Crimea and block the exit of Russias fleeing the invasion, Ukrainian intelligence officials have claimed. (Getty)
Ukrainian intelligence officials have claimed the Kremlin is preparing to seal off Crimea in order to block the exit of any “panicked” Russians trying to flee.
In 2014, Russia seized Ukraine’s southern peninsula of Crimea, an area of significant strategic importance in an invasion which marked what one Western intelligence official described as the “creeping militarisation” of the Black Sea.
While Nato and the international community deemed the annexation illegal, they failed to stop it and Moscow has since established two federal “subjects” in the area – the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol.
View on the globe zoomed on Ukraine(light blue) and western part of Russia (red)
Eight years on and Putin mounted a full scale invasion of Ukraine, in an apparent attempt to annex more land in the east of the country, specifically the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
However, Western officials believe the invasion is not going to plan, with Moscow frustrated by the lack of progress. The war has sparked numerous protests across Russia.
On Wednesday, the intelligence department of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence claimed in a Facebook post that the Kremlin plans to block bridges, ferries and air connections from the mainland to Crimea in order to prevented panicking Russians from fleeing the region.
The post said Russia is now holding 600,000 Russian citizens “hostage” who are “illegally on the peninsula”.
The statement said: “Putin’s authorities are trying to react to panic moods among Russian citizens who illegally moved to Ukrainian Crimea after February 2014.
A mental hospital hit by the Russian shelling in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine (Getty)
“The occupants seek to stop the flow of refugees from the peninsula.”
It added that families of Russian officers and officials in Sevastopol have “urgently” sold real estate and are removing assets from the peninsula.
These claims have not been verified, however it is clear that there is some anger aimed at Putin’s invasion in the Russian homeland.
On 4 March, Moscow enacted two laws that criminalised independent war reporting and protesting the war, with penalties of up to 15 years in prison.
Three days after those laws came into force police reportedly detained more than 4,300 protesters in 56 different cities, according to the OVD-Info independent protest monitoring group.
Some Russian state-controlled media carried short reports about the protests but they did not feature high in news bulletins.
Russia’s RIA news agency said the Manezhnaya Square in Moscow, adjoining the Kremlin, had been “liberated” by police, who had arrested some participants of an unsanctioned protest against the military operation in Ukraine.
The last Russian protests with a similar number of arrests were in January 2021, when thousands demanded the release of opposition leader Alexei Navalny after he was arrested on returning from Germany where he had been recovering from a nerve agent poisoning.
The anonymous officer said that battlefield casualties suffered by Russia are thought to total between 30,000 and 40,000 since Putin launched his invasion on February 24.
On Thursday, British military intelligence said that “Russian forces have almost certainly suffered thousands of casualties during their invasion of Ukraine.”
In an effort to bolster their troops, Russia is likely looking at bringing reservists and conscription, further intelligence has suggested.
An update added: “Russia is likely now looking to mobilize its reservist and conscript manpower, as well as private military companies and foreign mercenaries, to replace these considerable losses.”
Putin’s ‘Achilles heel’ in Ukraine is Russians believing their ‘soldiers are dying unnecessarily,’ CNN says
Peter Weber, Senior editor – March 24, 2022
Soviet Russia finally pulled out of Afghanistan because fierce Afghan resistance, fueled by U.S.-provided Stinger missiles, was eating away at Russian forces, eventually resulting in 15,000 Russian deaths. “Today the death toll of Russian troops in Ukraine could already match those killed over 10 years in Afghanistan,” CNN’s Nic Robertson reported early Thursday, citing NATO estimates.
“Afghan parallels with today’s war in Ukraine are clear,” Robertson said. “Russia’s enemies, if not Russia, have learned the lessons of the Afghan war.”
“Across dozens of Russian cities, more than 15,000 people have been arrested for protesting the war,” Robertson said. “Recently, anxious parents of troops have begun showing up. Putin’s Achilles heel is the perception soldiers are dying unnecessarily. It’s why he’s tightened reporting laws and swamped Russia with Kremlin propaganda, and it’s why the Ukrainian military shows off battlefield gains — like knocking out Russian tanks or captured Russian soldiers — because they know bad press back home is what the Red Army out of Afghanistan.”
Thus far, Kremlin-friendly media has rarely strayed from the party line. So, for example, this drone footage of Mariupol after weeks of relentless Russian bombing and airstrikes is “shocking” proof on CNN of Russia’s scorched-earth campaign of punishing and killing Ukrainian civilians to achieve otherwise unattainable territorial gains.
On Russian state TV, it is portrayed as Ukrainian forces burning down their own house to thwart the Russians.
But there are signs of low morale among Russian forces in Ukraine, reported to be suffering from frostbite and hunger, not just stalemate and high casualties. And the morale problems aren’t just among Russian ground troops and field officers in Ukraine, CNN says, pointing to a report it obtained by U.S. military attachés in Moscow who “casually inquired” about a Russian major general’s Ukrainian family roots and were shocked when the general’s “stoic demeanor suddenly became flushed and agitated.”
After Ukraine, Vladimir Putin Is Beyond Redemption
March 25, 2022
After Ukraine, Vladimir Putin Is Beyond Redemption
Continuing from Part 1, John Heilemann talks with international affairs and national security guru Tom Nichols about the debate over whether Russian President Vladimir Putin’s behavior and rhetoric suggest that he is losing touch with reality and becoming unhinged. Nichols argues that Putin has reached a “point of no return” given the mounting civilian casualties in Ukraine, President’s Biden’s recent characterization of Putin as a war criminal, and Russia’s increasing isolation on the world stage. They also discuss Biden’s successful rallying of NATO allies – as the president meets with European leaders in Brussels this week about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – as well as the difficult decisions facing Biden and the NATO alliance as Zelenskyy warns that we may already have entered World War III. Tune in to the full episode to hear about Nichols’s proud status as a five-time, undefeated Jeopardy champion, and his well-known – and well-deserved – reputation for having indefensibly and inexplicably bad taste in music.
Related:
Yahoo! News
What is the punishment for a war criminal?
James Morris, Freelance news writer, Yahoo UK – March 25, 2022
Vladimir Putin, pictured holding a meeting on Friday, has been accused of war crimes. (Getty Images)
The UK government has said “all options are on the table” when it comes to seeking to prosecute Russian president Vladimir Putin’s regime for war crimes amid the Ukraine crisis.
Preliminary international probes have already begun following Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which has seen more than 1,000 civilians killed and millions of people displaced from their homes.
But what is a war crime, how are they prosecuted and what is the punishment? Here, Yahoo News UK explains.
What is a war crime?
There is not actually an agreed definition. As the United Nations points out, “there is no one single document in international law that codifies all war crimes”.
But the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), where war crimes can be prosecuted (see further information below), follows the definition set out by the 1949 Geneva Conventions, which were ratified by 196 states.
This definition includes acts of:
wilful killing
torture or inhuman treatment
wilfully causing great suffering or serious injury
extensive destruction and appropriation of property which is not justified by military necessity
compelling a prisoner of war to serve in the forces of a hostile state
wilfully depriving a prisoner of war of the rights of fair and regular trial
unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement
taking of hostages
However, the Rome Statute also includes an extensive list of further specific violations, such as intentionally directing attacks against civilian populations, using child soldiers, forced pregnancy and intentionally directing attacks against hospitals.
How are war crimes prosecuted?
War crimes can be prosecuted at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague in the Netherlands. This court is governed by the Rome Statute outlined above.
The ICC, which began operations in 2002, “investigates and, where warranted, tries individuals charged with the gravest crimes of concern to the international community”. This includes war crimes as well as genocide, crimes against humanity and the crime of aggression.
It is a “court of last resort” and a case will only be heard there when a national court is not in a position to address it.
After gathering evidence and identifying a suspect, ICC prosecutors can request judges to issue arrest warrants. It relies on countries to carry out the arrest and a trial cannot begin until a suspect is detained and transferred to the court.
Twenty-seven defendants have been accused of war crimes by the ICC, with three – Ahmad Al Faqi Al Mahdi, Germain Katanga and Thomas Lubanga Dylio – convicted. A further eight are currently in ICC custody awaiting trial or appealing proceedings.
What is the punishment for war crimes?
At the trial, the prosecution “must prove beyond reasonable doubt the guilt of the accused” before three judges.
If found guilty, the judges can issue sentences of up to 30 years’ imprisonment, or a life sentence “under exceptional circumstances”.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, Netherlands. (Reuters)
Sentences are served in countries that have agreed to enforce ICC prison terms.
Verdicts are subject to appeal by the defence of the accused, as well as by the prosecution.
Has Putin committed war crimes in Ukraine?
Putin hasn’t been formally accused of war crimes by the ICC, though it launched an investigation earlier this month following referrals from 41 countries.
But Putin’s bombardment of major cities including Kyiv and Mariupol, including strikes on hospitals and civilian evacuation routes, have seen leaders around the world accuse Putin of having committed war crimes.
Boris Johnson said on Thursday: “It is right that Russia should now be called before the International Court of Justice and right that President Putin should appear before the International Criminal Court. There is no question that what they are doing is war crimes.”
Boris Johnson gives a press conference during a Nato summit in Brussels, Belgium. He says the UK is bolstering support for Nato and the UK will ramp up legal aid for Ukraine.
In his most recent statement on the probe on 10 March, ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan said: “I note, in particular, that if attacks are intentionally directed against the civilian population: that is a crime. If attacks are intentionally directed against civilian objects: that is a crime. I strongly urge parties to the conflict to avoid the use of heavy explosive weapons in populated areas.
“There is no legal justification, there is no excuse, for attacks which are indiscriminate, or which are disproportionate in their effects on the civilian population.”
Could Putin be prosecuted for alleged war crimes in Ukraine?
David Scheffer, who was the first US ambassador-at-large for war crimes under the Clinton administration, told Foreign Policy on Thursday it is “inevitable” Putin will be indicted at the ICC. “He is at the very top of the command chain in Russia.
“He has obviously failed as top commander to stop those crimes from being committed on a daily basis. He has the power to do it.”
However, as outlined above, hearings cannot begin until a suspect is arrested and transferred to the ICC.
And while the court could well accuse Putin of war crimes, asking Russia to arrest its all-powerful dictator is another matter altogether.
Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine – A War Expert’s Analysis
John Heilemann talks with international affairs and national security guru Tom Nichols, contributing writer at The Atlantic, longtime senior faculty member at the U.S. Naval War College, and author of eight books on foreign policy and politics, including, most recently, Our Own Worst Enemy: The Assault from Within on Modern Democracy. Heilemann and Nichols assess Vladimir Putin’s calculations in the face of the Russian military’s inability to win a swift and decisive victory, how President Zelenskyy has wielded a masterful media strategy to galvanize support around the world and dominate the information battlefield; and the difficult decisions facing Joe Biden and the NATO alliance as Zelenskyy warns that we may already have entered World War III. Nichols also discusses his proud status as a five-time, undefeated Jeopardy champion, and his well-known – and well-deserved – reputation for having inexplicably bad taste in music.
Related:
The Recount
Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine – A War Expert’s Analysis
March 24, 2022
John Heilemann talks with international affairs and national security guru Tom Nichols, contributing writer at The Atlantic, longtime senior faculty member at the U.S. Naval War College, and author of eight books on foreign policy and politics, including, most recently, Our Own Worst Enemy: The Assault from Within on Modern Democracy. Heilemann and Nichols assess the state of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s calculations in the face of the Russian military’s inability to win a swift and decisive victory, and the emerging consensus in the West that war has reached what could prove to be a protracted and bloody stalemate; how President Zelenskyy has wielded a masterful media strategy to galvanize support around the world and dominate the information battlefield; and the difficult decisions facing Joe Biden and the NATO alliance as Zelenskyy warns that we may already have entered World War III. Nichols also discusses his proud status as a five-time, undefeated Jeopardy champion, and his well-known – and well-deserved – reputation for having indefensibly and inexplicably bad taste in music.
Mariupol officials say 300 dead in Russian airstrike on theater
Dylan Stableford, Senior Writer – March 25, 2022
Ukrainian officials said Friday that they now believe as many as 300 people may have been killed in the bombing of a theater in Mariupol on March 16.
The Mariupol City Council said it relied on witness accounts to estimate the death toll from the attack, which has been difficult to gather due to constant bombardment of the besieged city.
“From witnesses comes information that about 300 people died in the Mariupol Drama Theatre as a result of the bombing by a Russian plane,” the City Council said in a statement. “Up until the very last moment, one does not want to believe this horror. But the words of those who were inside the building at the time of this terrorist act says the opposite.”
City officials had said that about 130 people were rescued from the rubble. Video footage taken in the wake of the attack showed massive devastation inside the theater as people covered in dust and debris tried to escape.
The theater was being used as one of the main shelters in Mariupol, which has been pummeled by airstrikes in recent weeks.
The destroyed theater, which was being used as a shelter by civilians, in Mariupol, Ukraine. (Ukrainian Interior Ministry/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
According to the United Nations human rights office, at least 1,081 civilians have been killed and another 1,707 wounded in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, though the agency believes the actual death toll is likely much higher.
Russia has denied targeting civilians.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week that the United States has officially determined that members of Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine.
“Since launching his unprovoked and unjust war of choice, Russian President Vladimir Putin has unleashed unrelenting violence that has caused death and destruction across Ukraine,” Blinken said Wednesday. “We’ve seen numerous credible reports of indiscriminate attacks and attacks deliberately targeting civilians, as well as other atrocities.
“The deliberate targeting of civilians is a war crime,” he said.
Insider Marie Yovanovitch says it will take a ‘concentrated effort over a number of years’ to undo the ‘damage’ that Mike Pompeo did to the State Department
Sonam Sheth,Nicole Gaudiano – March 25, 2022
Representative Mike Pompeo (R-KS) testifies before a Senate Intelligence hearing on his nomination of to be become director of the CIA at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., January 12, 2017.REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Yovanovitch told Insider that it will take “years” to undo the “damage” Pompeo did to the State Department.
He “presided over the hollowing out of a great institution,” she said.
The former ambassador accused Pompeo of being a hypocrite in her memoir and wondered if the State Department would “survive the betrayals of the Pompeo years.”
Marie Yovanovitch, the former US ambassador told Ukraine, told Insider in a wide-ranging interview that it will take “years” to reverse the damage that former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did to the State Department.
Pompeo “presided over the hollowing out of a great institution,” Yovanovitch told Insider. She added that Donald Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, “started it and Pompeo continued it, so there’s is lasting damage.”
President Joe Biden’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, made a commitment to following the rule of law, protecting diplomats and foreign service officers, and promoting US policy abroad when he took the helm at the department.
But “it takes a concentrated effort over a number of years not only to knit the fabric of the State Department back together again, but to give it the kinds of resources that are necessary for our diplomacy,” Yovanovitch told Insider.
The former ambassador didn’t mince words about her view of Pompeo in her new memoir, “Lessons From The Edge.” She struck a blunt tone when she said that Pompeo’s “hypocrisy was galling” and wondered if the State Department would “survive the betrayals of the Pompeo years.”
Yovanovitch was abruptly recalled from her post in Ukraine in April 2019 following a concerted smear campaign against her by Trump’s allies, led by his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. In her book, Yovanovitch discussed her pleas for the State Department, and Pompeo himself, to publicly support her against Giuliani’s efforts to discredit her work in Ukraine and bogus allegations that she was a partisan Obama holdover.
But Pompeo failed to protect her from the White House, Yovanovitch later testified to Congress. She was one of more than a dozen witnesses to testify at Trump’s first impeachment inquiry in late 2019. It centered around his efforts to strongarm the Ukrainian government into launching bogus political investigations into the Biden family while withholding vital security assistance and a White House meeting.
When congressional staffers began contacting her in mid-August 2019 — shortly before the impeachment inquiry was launched — to discuss “Ukraine-related” matters, Yovanovitch started thinking about hiring a lawyer.
“Although the department lawyers usually tried to watch out for State personnel, their job was to protect State’s interests, not mine,” she wrote. “I was a team player, but the past six months had shown me that I could no longer trust the coach.”
She also wrote that it was ironic that Pompeo pledged to work with “uncompromising personal and professional integrity” after being unable to guard her against Giuliani and Trump’s attacks on her. She recalled, in particular, the day that she flew back to Washington, DC, from Kyiv after being abruptly fired without cause.
The same day, Pompeo unveiled an “ethos statement” at the State Department “with great fanfare,” the memoir says. In addition to promising to work with “uncompromising personal and professional integrity,” the statement also promised to “show ‘unstinting respect in word and deed for my colleagues,'” Yovanovitch writes.
“Every Foreign Service officer I knew agreed with these points, but coming from Pompeo, the irony was too much to handle,” the book says. “We were all tired of Pompeo’s talk. We just wanted him to walk the walk. He didn’t need to swagger.”
Looking forward, the former ambassador told Insider that the way the US conducts diplomacy needs to be overhauled, in the same way that the US military reformed after the Vietnam War and intelligence services did after the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Diplomacy in 2022 needs to “meet the challenges of the 21st century in a way that reflects many of the tools that we’ve got now that we didn’t have back in the day,” she said. One example she highlighted is the advent of social media and how journalists, activists, and governments use it to spread awareness about key issues of the day.
“When we respond on social media, we don’t have to have it approved by, you know, 20 different people in Washington, but we can be more nimble and more effective,” Yovanovitch said.
Exclusive-Russian missiles in Ukraine have failure rate of up to 60%, U.S. officials say
Phil Stewart – March 24, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in Kharkiv
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia’s invasion.
Since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russia has failed to achieve basic objectives such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force despite a vastly larger armed forces.
The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not provide evidence to support the assessment and did not disclose what precisely was driving high Russian missile failure rates.
Reuters was unable to independently verify the figures.
Though Reuters could not determine what a standard failure rate would be for air-launched cruise missiles, two experts interviewed by Reuters said any failure rate of 20% and above would be considered high.
The Kremlin says that what it calls a “special military operation” is going to plan and that Russia will achieve all of its aims. It casts the United States as an “empire of lies” which has unleashed an information war on Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined immediate comment and suggested Reuters approach the defense ministry which did not immediately respond to phone calls and a written request for comment.
In recent days, Russia’s defense ministry has lauded the professionalism and missile technology of the armed forces. It says claims of failures are misleading propaganda distributed by Russia’s enemies headed by the United States.
MISSILE FAILURES
U.S. defense officials told reporters this week that the Pentagon assesses that Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles of all kinds since the war began. The U.S. officials have so far not said how many of those hit their targets and how many failed to do so.
Citing U.S. intelligence, three U.S. officials said the United States estimated that Russia’s failure rate varied day-to-day, depended on the type of missile being launched, and could sometimes exceed 50%. Two of them said it reached as high as 60%.
One of the officials said the intelligence showed that Russia’s air-launched cruise missiles had a failure rate in the 20% to 60% range, depending on the day.
Russia has been seen fielding two types of air-launched cruise missiles in Ukraine, the Kh-555 and Kh-101, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank’s Missile Defense Project.
Failures can include anything from launch failures to a missile failing to explode on impact.
The United States believes Russia fired air-launched cruise missiles from Russian airspace earlier this month when it attacked a Ukrainian military base near the Polish border, and one of the U.S. officials told Reuters there was a particularly high failure rate during this attack. The strike killed 35 people, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Missile attacks have been a feature of Russia’s invasion, with Russia announcing strikes against military targets including weapons depots.
The invasion has killed thousands and driven a quarter of Ukraine’s 44 million people from their homes. The bombardment has hit residential areas, schools and hospitals in Ukrainian cities including Kharkiv and the besieged port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov.
Russia says the operation was necessary because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia while Russian speakers were being persecuted in Ukraine. Moscow denies it is targeting civilians.
(Reporting by Phil Stewart; Additional reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mary Milliken and Daniel Wallis; Editing by Toby Chopra)
Related:
The Week
Up to 60 percent of Russian missiles in Ukraine are failing, U.S. assesses
Peter Weber, Senior editor – March 25, 2022
Unexploded Russian missile in Ukraine Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images
Russia has been trying to make up for its setbacks on the ground in Ukraine with missiles and bombs, and the Russians have launched at least 1,200 missiles “of all stripes and sizes” in the first 28 days of their invasion, a senior U.S. defense official said Wednesday. But not all of those missiles are hitting their marks. Three U.S. officials told Reuters on Thursday that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60 percent for some of the precision-guided missiles it’s using to attack Ukraine.
“Such a high failure rate can include anything from launch failures to a missile failing to explode on impact,” Reuters reports. “The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve what most could consider basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force, despite the apparent strength of its military against Ukraine’s much smaller armed forces.”
The failure rate for Russia’s missiles varies from day to day and depends on the type of missile being launched, the U.S. officials told Reuters, citing U.S. intelligence. Air-launched cruise missiles, for example, are failing at a rate of 20 percent to 60 percent. Two experts told Reuters that any failure rate above 20 percent would be considered high.
But Russia still has “the vast majority of their assembled available inventory of surface-to-air missiles and cruise missiles available to them,” the senior Pentagon official said Wednesday. “I mean, they’ve expended a lot, but they put a lot into the effort. And they still have an awful lot left.”
And even 40 percent of 1,200 missiles would do a lot of damage. On Friday, Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that Russia destroyed “the largest of the remaining fuel depot of the Ukrainian armed forces,” outside Kyiv with “sea-launched Kalibr precision cruise missiles.”
Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine isn’t impressing the Pentagon. “I think with a high degree of certainty that Russia will emerge from Ukraine weaker than it went into the conflict,” Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl said Thursday. “Militarily weaker, economically weaker, politically and geopolitically weaker, and more isolated.” Kahl added that an upcoming Pentagon defense strategy document would asses Russia as an “acute threat” that, unlike China, poses no long-term systems challenge to the U.S.
Related:
Business Insider
As many as 60% of Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine are failing to launch or don’t explode on impact, US officials say
Sophia Ankel – March 25, 2022
An unexploded tail section of a 300mm missile which appear to contain cluster bombs is embedded in the ground after shelling on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv, on March 21, 2022.Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images
Russia has used more than 1,100 missiles in Ukraine since its invasion last month, Reuters reported.
But missiles used by Russia are seeing failure rates as high as 60%, US officials said.
The officials were not able to provide Reuters with evidence of their assessment.
As many as 60% of Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine fail to launch or don’t explode on impact, three US officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue, told Reuters.
The Pentagon believes that Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles since its full invasion of Ukraine just over a month ago, US officials told reporters this week, according to Reuters.
But the precision-guided missiles, including air-launched cruise missiles, fired by Russian forces are seeing failure rates as high as 60%, two of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. One official estimated the rate could be as high as 50%.
The officials said that the failure rate depended on the type of missile being launched and varied day-to-day. They did not say why the rate could be so high, nor did they provide Reuters with any evidence of their assessment.
Since the start of the conflict, images of Russian missiles and bombs lodged in Ukraine’s streets and buildings have emerged online. Insider was unable to verify them.
This tactic has been used before by Ukrainian forces, focusing on repairing damaged Russian equipment captured in the fighting and then sending them back into battle.
Ukraine morning briefing: Five developments as two missile strikes hit Ukrainian military unit
Our Foreign Staff – March 24, 2022
Volodymyr Ilnytskyi, 55, a retired policeman, prays before ringing the bell of the Latin Cathedral in Lviv – AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty
Good morning. Western leaders have denounced Moscow’s invasion of its neighbour as “barbarism” as thousands in besieged cities sheltered underground from Russian bombardment.
Responding to Thursday’s Nato show of unity among Western leaders in Brussels, Moscow said the West had itself to blame for the war by arming the “Kyiv regime”.
1. Two missile strikes hit Ukrainian military unit
News is breaking that in Dnipro, Ukrainian forces have been badly hit this morning. According to the city’s governor, there is “serious destruction” after two missile strikes hit a Ukrainian military unit on the outskirts of the city. The governor says rescuers are desperately looking for survivors.
Our liveblog will bring you the latest updates.
2. Ukraine is reoccupying defensive positions
The UK Ministry of Defence said Ukraine had managed to reoccupy some areas, however.
In its latest intelligence update, posted on Twitter, the MoD said: “Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian forces falling back on overextended supply lines, have allowed Ukraine to reoccupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 kilometres east of Kyiv.
“Ukrainian forces are likely to continue to attempt to push Russian forces back along the north-western axis from Kyiv towards Hostomel Airfield.
“In the south of Ukraine, Russian forces are still attempting to circumvent Mykolaiv as they look to drive west towards Odesa, with their progress being slowed by logistic issues and Ukrainian resistance.”
3. Hundreds of thousands ‘forcibly removed’ to Russia
People who are sheltering in a metro station in northern Kharkiv receive food from volunteers – REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Ukraine has accused Moscow of forcibly removing hundreds of thousands of civilians to Russia to pressure Kyiv to give up.
President Volodymyr Zelensky urged his country to keep up its military defence and not stop “even for a minute”.
Lyudmyla Denisova, Ukraine’s ombudsperson, said 402,000 people, including 84,000 children, had been taken against their will into Russia, where some may be used as “hostages” to pressure Kyiv to surrender.
The Kremlin gave nearly identical numbers for those who have been relocated, but said they wanted to go to Russia.
4. Ex-president says Western sanctions won’t sway Kremlin
It is “foolish” to believe that Western sanctions against Russian businesses could have any effect on Moscow, Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian ex-president and deputy head of security council was quoted as saying on Friday.
The sanctions will only consolidate the Russian society and not cause popular discontent with the authorities, he told Russia’s RIA news agency.
The West has imposed an array of sanctions on Russia, but one month into the war, the Kremlin says it will continue the assault until it accomplishes its goals of Ukraine’s “demilitarization and denazification”
Boris Johnson: We will tighten the economic vice around Putin regime
Some of the sanctions have specifically targeted billionaire businessmen believed to be close to President Vladimir Putin.
“Let us ask ourselves: can any of these major businessmen have even the tiniest quantum of influence of the position of the country’s leadership?” Mr Medvedev said.
“I openly tell you: no, no way.”
5. Gas shipments to help wean Europe off Russian energy
Joe Biden is expected on Friday to announce increased shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe, part of a long-term initiative to wean the Continent off Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine.
He plans to discuss the issue with Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Union’s executive arm, shortly before leaving for Poland.
Russian energy is a key source of income and political leverage for Moscow. Almost 40 per cent of the European Union’s natural gas comes from Russia to heat homes, generate electricity and power industry.
Ukraine said on Thursday they destroyed Russian navy landing ship Orsk in an attack on a Russian-occupied port facility in the city of Berdyansk.
Ukrainian officials didn’t say how the attack was carried out, but video shows other Russian vessels fleeing the area as smoke rises over the port, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Berdyansk is one of the few cities Russia has been able to seize since the start of the war, though Ukrainian citizens regularly protest the invading soldiers.
When the Orsk arrived on Monday, Russia’s army TV station Zvezda boasted of their new capabilities.
“The southern flank of the special operation can now receive anything, including armor and ammunition, at any time,” Zvezda said at the time, per the Journal. “The port, and the entire city, are under reliable protection of the Russian air defenses.”
Russia did not confirm the attack on the ship.
Ukraine has been able to stall much of Russia’s advances throughout the war, surprising Western allies who have supported the country with military and humanitarian aid.
NATO says six generals and up to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the invasion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for international rallies starting March 24 to support Ukraine after one month of fighting.
Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now
March 24, 2022
FILE PHOTO: Russia’s invasion on Ukraine continues
(Reuters) – Western leaders showcased their unity against Russia’s war in Ukraine with Washington seeking more military aid to Ukraine, London imposing new sanctions against Moscow, and NATO assigning more troops for its eastern flank as the conflict enters its second month.
LVIV, Ukraine – President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appealed to NATO leaders to increase military support for Ukraine against Russian forces that he warned would next target alliance members in eastern Europe.
ON THE GROUND
* Ukrainian authorities said about 15,000 civilians had been illegally deported to Russia from besieged Mariupol since Russian forces seized parts of the southern port city.
* Ukraine said its forces had destroyed the Russian landing ship “Orsk” near the Russian-occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk on the Azov Sea. Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar said the ship was capable of carrying 45 armoured personnel carriers and 400 people. Reuters was unable to verify the report.
* NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance would boost its forces in Eastern Europe by deploying four new battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
REPERCUSSIONS
* Switzerland has frozen around 5.75 billion Swiss francs ($6.17 billion) worth of Russian assets covered by sanctions and that amount is likely to rise, a government official said.
* The U.S. Embassy in Moscow received a list of its diplomats declared “persona non grata”, a State Department spokesperson said, in what Russian media said was a response to a U.S. move ousting Russian staff at the United Nations.
* Russia plans to switch its gas sales to “unfriendly” countries to roubles, President Putin said, responding to a freeze on Russia’s assets by foreign nations.
CIVILIANS
* UNICEF said 4.3 million of Ukraine’s 7.5 million children have been uprooted by the month-long war.
* More than 145,000 babies are in urgent need of nutrition support in Ukraine, UNICEF said.
QUOTES
* “Come from your offices, your homes, your schools and universities, come in the name of peace, come with Ukrainian symbols to support Ukraine, to support freedom, to support life,” Zelenskiy said in his appeal for a worldwide demonstration.
* “We, the French and Europeans, will do everything to stop this war without entering it,” French President Macron said.
(Compiled by Michael Perry and Peter Graff; Edited by Angus MacSwan)
