Author: John Hanno

The New York Times

Why Ukraine Is Different

David Leonhardt – February 21, 2022

There have been dozens of wars in the almost 80 years since World War II ended. But if Russia invades Ukraine in the coming days, it will be different from almost all of them. It will be another sign that the world may be entering an alarming new era in which authoritarianism is on the rise.

Here are the two main ways that a war in Ukraine would be distinct.

1. Regional dominance

A Russian invasion of Ukraine seems likely to involve one of the world’s largest militaries launching an unprovoked ground invasion of a neighboring country. The apparent goal would be an expansion of regional dominance, either through annexation or the establishment of a puppet government.

Few other conflicts since World War II fit this description. Some of the closest analogies are the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan in the 1970s, Czechoslovakia in the 1960s and Hungary in the 1950s — as well as Vladimir Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. The U.S., for its part, invaded Panama in the 1980s and used the CIA to overthrow an elected government in Guatemala in the 1950s. Of course, it also launched several faraway wars, in Iraq, Vietnam and elsewhere.

But the world’s most powerful countries have rarely used force to expand their boundaries or set up client states in their region. Instead, they have generally abided by the treaties and international rules established in the 1940s. The phrase “Pax Americana” describes this stability.

The relative peace has had enormous benefits. Living standards have surged, with people living longer, healthier and more comfortable lives on average than their ancestors. In recent decades, the largest gains have come in lower-income countries. The decline in warfare has played a central role: By the start of this century, the rate at which people were dying in armed conflicts had fallen to the lowest level in recorded history, as Joshua Goldstein, Steven Pinker and other scholars have noted.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would look like the kind of war that has been largely absent in the past 80 years and that was once common. It would involve a powerful nation setting out to expand its regional dominance by taking over a neighbor. A war like this — a voluntary war of aggression — would be a sign that Putin believed that Pax Americana was over and that the U.S., the European Union and their allies had become too weak to exact painful consequences.

As Anne Applebaum has written in The Atlantic, Putin and his inner circle are part of a new breed of autocrats, along with the rulers of China, Iran and Venezuela: “people who aren’t interested in treaties and documents, people who only respect hard power.”

This is why many people in Taiwan find the situation in Ukraine to be chilling, as my New York Times colleagues Steven Lee Myers and Amy Qin have explained. “If the Western powers fail to respond to Russia, they do embolden the Chinese thinking regarding action on Taiwan,” said Lai I-chung, a Taiwanese official with ties to its leaders. If the world is entering an era in which countries again make decisions based, above all, on what their military power allows them to do, it would be a big change.

2. Democratic recession

Political scientists have been warning for several years that democracy is in decline around the world. Larry Diamond of Stanford University has described the trend as a “democratic recession.”

Freedom House, which tracks every country in the world, reports that global political freedom has declined every year since 2006. Last year, Freedom House concluded, “the countries experiencing deterioration outnumbered those with improvements by the largest margin recorded since the negative trend began.”

A Russian takeover of Ukraine would contribute to this democratic recession in a new way: An autocracy would be taking over a democracy by force.

Ukraine is a largely democratic nation of more than 40 million people, with a pro-Western president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who in 2019 won 73% of the vote in the election’s final round. That victory and recent polls both indicate that most Ukrainians want to live in a country that resembles the European nations to its west — and the U.S. — more than it resembles Russia.

But Putin and his inner circle believe that liberal democracies are in decline, a view that Xi Jinping and other top Chinese officials share.

They know that the U.S. and Europe are now struggling to lift living standards for much of their populations. Putin and Xi also know that many Western countries are polarized, rived by cultural conflicts between metropolitan areas and more rural ones. Major political parties are weak (as in the case of the old center-left parties in Britain, France and elsewhere) or themselves behaving in anti-democratic ways (as with the Republican Party in the United States.).

These problems have given Putin and his top aides confidence to act aggressively, believing that “the American-led order is in deep crisis,” Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Moscow Center wrote in The Economist this weekend.

In the view of Putin’s regime, Gabuev explained: “A new multipolar order is taking shape that reflects an unstoppable shift in power to authoritarian regimes that support traditional values. A feisty, resurgent Russia is a pioneering force behind the arrival of this new order, along with a rising China.”

The situation in Ukraine remains highly uncertain. Putin may still choose not to invade, given the potential for a protracted war, a large number of Russian casualties and economic turmoil. An invasion would be a spectacular gamble with almost no modern equivalent — which is also why it would be a sign that the world might be changing.

Yahoo! News

White House hails Germany’s decision to halt certification of Nord Stream 2 pipeline to punish Russia

Caitlin Dickson, Reporter – February 22, 2022

The White House on Tuesday called Germany’s decision to halt certification of the new Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline “a major turning point in the world’s energy independence from Russia.”

Daleep Singh, who serves as deputy national security adviser for international economics and deputy director of the National Economic Council, made the comment during a White House press briefing in regard to steps taken by the U.S. and its NATO allies to punish Russia for its decision to recognize and send troops into two Moscow-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine.

Earlier in the day, President Biden announced that the U.S. was imposing new economic sanctions on Russia.

Singh began his remarks by highlighting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement Tuesday that Germany was halting certification of the Nord Stream 2 project, a newly constructed natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany that critics said gave the Kremlin too much power over energy policy in Europe. Singh said the ultimate decision on the pipeline followed U.S. “consultations overnight with Germany.”

“That’s an $11 billion investment in a prized gas pipeline, controlled by Russia, that will now go to waste. And it sacrifices what would have been a cash cow for Russia’s coffers,” Singh said. “But it’s not just about the money. This decision will relieve Russia’s geostrategic chokehold over Europe through its supply of gas, and it’s a major turning point in the world’s energy independence from Russia.”

During a joint press conference with Scholz at the White House earlier this month, Biden vowed to “bring an end” to the pipeline if Russia were to move forward with an invasion of Ukraine, “that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine.” At the time, the German chancellor was less willing to echo this specific promise, saying only that he and Biden were “absolutely united, we will not be taking different steps.”

During Tuesday’s briefing, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said President Biden “has never been a supporter of Nord Stream 2,” and added that while the president didn’t feel it was appropriate to take preemptive sanctions against the project, “the announcement by the German chancellor today was not by accident.”

Biden, she said, “never felt it was a good project, [he’s] been clear about that.”

Biden has acknowledged that the harsh sanctions the U.S. and its allies have pledged in response to Russia’s increased aggression against Ukraine, including the halting of Nord Stream 2, will likely drive up oil and gas prices worldwide. The president said Tuesday that he was taking “robust action to make sure the pain of sanctions is targeted at the Russian economy and not ours.”

“I want to limit the pain American people are feeling at the gas pump,” Biden said during his remarks at the White House.

Singh reiterated that point but declined to provide more specifics on how, exactly, the administration was working to minimize the impact of sanctions on Americans, saying only that the White House is engaged in an “ongoing effort and sensitive effort” to coordinate with major energy producers and consumers.

Asked when Americans could expect to see a difference in the price of gasoline at the pump, Singh declined to provide a timeline but said that “the collective power and authorities at our disposal, plus diplomatic maneuvers at our disposal, collectively we think will be effective at bringing down the price of gas and of oil.”

Bloomberg

Russia’s Richest Lose $32 Billion as Ukraine Crisis Deepens

Ben Stupples – February 22, 2022

(Bloomberg) — The fortunes of Russia’s super-rich have tumbled $32 billion this year, with the escalating conflict in Ukraine poised to make that wealth destruction much larger.

U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday unleashed sanctions targeting Russia’s sale of sovereign debt abroad and the country’s elites, and said he’s sending an unspecified number of additional U.S. troops to the Baltics in a defensive move to defend NATO countries.

Gennady Timchenko heads the list of Russian billionaires who have seen their fortunes drop, with almost a third of his wealth disappearing since Jan. 1, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a listing of the world’s 500 richest people.

Timchenko, 69, the son of a Soviet military officer who met and befriended Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin during the early 1990s, now has a fortune of about $16 billion, with the bulk of his wealth derived from a stake in Russia gas producer Novatek, according to Bloomberg’s wealth index.

Fellow Novatek shareholder Leonid Mikhelson’s fortune has tumbled $6.2 billion this year, while Lukoil Chairman Vagit Alekperov’s net worth has declined about $3.5 billion in the same period as the energy company’s stock has slid almost 17%.

The country’s 23 billionaires currently have a net worth of $343 billion, according to the wealth list, down from $375 billion at year-end.

Markets slumped further this week after Putin recognized two separatist republics in Ukraine, leading to Germany halting an energy project with Russia and the U.K. imposing sanctions on five of the country’s banks and three of its wealthy individuals, including Timchenko.

Also on the U.K.’s sanctions list are Boris Rotenberg, 65, and his nephew, Igor, 48, whose families made their fortune through gas-pipeline construction firm Stroygazmontazh.

Read more: Here Are the Russian Billionaires Facing Sanctions Over Ukraine

Igor’s father, Arkady, one of Putin’s former judo sparring partners, sold the pipeline firm in 2019 for about $1.3 billion. He purchased a minority stake from his younger brother Boris five years earlier when both siblings and Timchenko were hit with U.S. sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

Why Donetsk and Luhansk Matter to Putin and the West

Insider

Harvard economist and former Obama adviser says Russia is ‘basically a big gas station’ and is otherwise ‘incredibly unimportant’ in the global economy

Matthew Loh – February 21, 2022

• Harvard economist Jason Furman said Russia’s economy is ‘unimportant’ except for its gas resources, The New York Times reported.
• His comments come as the US and Europe prepare heavy sanctions on Russia if it invades Ukraine.
• But there are concerns that their plans to punish Moscow will penalize the rest of the world too.

Russia’s economy is “incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas,” Jason Furman, Harvard economist and ex-adviser to former President Barack Obama, told The New York Times.

“It’s basically a big gas station,” he said.

His comments come as the West prepares heavy sanctions on Russia if it invades Ukraine. While they have the potential to throw the entire Russian economy into chaos, these measures could also reverberate to further damage the US, Europe, and the rest of the world as they battle inflation and rising energy prices — a ripple effect that the West hopes to mitigate.

On Monday, Moscow declared the independence of two breakaway regions of Ukraine and sent troops there — escalating the prospect of a major war. President Joe Biden has already ordered sanctions on the separatist regions — Donetsk and Luhansk — prohibiting US citizens from engaging in any exports, imports, or new investments in these areas.

Despite Russia’s size and wealth in raw materials, its economy is more on-par with Brazil than with nations like Germany, France, and the UK, according to the latest nominal GDP data from the World Bank. According to the World Bank, its economy is weaker than Italy’s and South Korea’s, two nations with less than half of Russia’s population.

But as Furman notes, Russia’s oil and gas exports are significant to the world.

The European Union imports around 80% of the natural gases it uses, according to the US Energy Information Administration, and Russia accounts for 41% of the natural gas imports and 27% of the oil imports in the continent, per Eurostat.

Compounded with energy prices in the EU surging in price from 20 euros to 180 euros a megawatt-hour over the last year, the disappearance of those gas and oil imports could spell disaster for the region and the interconnected global economy. Meanwhile, in the US, gas prices have hit a seven-year high, climbing to around $3.50 per gallon, while inflation burgeons at its highest rate in 40 years, at 7.5%.

On the other hand, Ukraine has also been a major supplier of grain to other regions, sending 40% of its wheat and corn exports to the Middle East and Africa, The Times reported.

In response to a potential food crisis in those regions, US Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said on Saturday that American farmers would increase production and “step in and help our partners,” the Associated Press reported.

Ukraine accounts for 12% of the entire world’s grain exports, and is estimated to provide 16% of global corn exports this year, the AP reported. Vilsack told the outlet he believed that American consumers would largely be unaffected, but Europeans would face “a different story.”

“You have to look at the backdrop against which this is coming,” Gregory Daco, chief economist for consulting firm EY-Parthenon, told The Times. “There is high inflation, strained supply chains and uncertainty about what central banks are going to do and how insistent price rises are.”

Bloomberg

What Ukraine-Russia Tensions Mean for Stocks and Investor Portfolios

Central bank tightening and slowing growth loom as larger long-term threats for equities, according to strategists on both sides of the Atlantic.

By Charlie Wells – February 22, 2022

Tensions in Ukraine have markets on edge. Stocks are swinging, oil is closing in on $100 a barrel and uncertainty looms over investors big and small. 

But it’s more of a short-term headache than a long-term drag. That’s the view of analysts on both sides of the Atlantic trying to discern what the geopolitical crisis means for investor portfolios in the wake of Russia recognizing two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine.

Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter, sees the conflict dominating near-term headlines. But he doesn’t expect it to dictate market moves in the long or even medium term. Instead, the most important factors “remain Fed tightening and economic growth,” he wrote.

JPMorgan strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas were of a similar mind in their recent note to clients, citing the larger risk of tightening monetary policy for equities and noting that Russia-Ukraine tensions are a low earnings risk for U.S. corporates.

“But an energy price shock amidst an aggressive central bank pivot focused on inflation could further dampen investor sentiment and growth outlook,” they wrote. 

In the U.K., Bloomberg Intelligence equities strategist Tim Craighead wrote that European stocks face limited risk, “unless Russian energy supplies are cut.” The crisis might “shuffle the leader board temporarily” in terms of European equities, but Craighead noted that the market seems to be more focused on rising inflation, elevated margins and central bank tightening.

Still, Steve Clayton, who manages HL Select Funds at Hargreaves Lansdown in the U.K., noted that the crisis won’t be over in a blip. 

“Russian troops have not massed along the Ukrainian border in order to hold a cake sale,” he wrote in a note on Tuesday. “However this unfolds, tensions and uncertainties are likely to run hot for some time to come. The market will not like any escalation, nor will it trust any settlement between the parties unless accompanied by a rapid demobilization of Russian forces around Ukraine.”

Clayton sees U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bonds as potential beneficiaries as investors seek safe havens. Given the nature of the conflict, he also points to defense stocks such as Bae Systems Plc as possible destinations, given that “European politicians are unlikely to urge for lower defense spending while the Russian bear is growling angrily.”

Banking stocks — which have been outperforming in Europe so far this year — could be losers. The U.K. just announced sanctions on five Russian banks. The EU proposed a package of sanctions on banks that finance Russian operations in the region. 

“Effective sanctions will impact on economic activity and banks will be where it is felt in the West,” Clayton wrote. “Lending volumes would be hit too, if tensions really rocket, because cautious consumers and businesses will refrain from borrowing until they feel more confident.”

Travel and leisure could also lose some steam, as they tend to when international tensions rise, wrote Clayton. Among several stocks, he pointed to Wizz Air, which has a significant network across Central and Eastern Europe. 

“Times of tension are when defensiveness can pay off,” he wrote. “People still have to eat, take medicines and get operated upon. Food retailers and drug companies like Sainsbury and AstraZeneca could be interesting, but Tesco’s exposure to Central Europe will not help.”

Associated Press

Putin recognizes independence of separatist Ukraine regions in possible prelude to invasion

February 21, 2022

Move could trigger harsh sanctions from West; Russian military says it killed five suspected ‘saboteurs’ who crossed from Ukraine

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday recognized the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and paved the way to provide them military support — a direct challenge to the West that will fuel fears that Russia could imminently invade Ukraine.

The carefully staged move announced in the Kremlin could lead to new sanctions on Russia and flies in the face of European efforts for a diplomatic solution to the escalating crisis, which has brought East-West relations to a new low and jeopardized trade. Britain’s prime minister called it a “breach of international law.”

The European Union immediately said it will slap sanctions on those involved in recognizing Ukraine’s breakaway regions as independent.

It came amid a spike in skirmishes in the eastern regions that Western powers believe Russia could use as a pretext for an attack on the western-looking democracy that has defied Moscow’s attempts to pull it back into its orbit.

Putin justified his decision in a far-reaching, pre-recorded speech blaming NATO for the current crisis and calling the U.S.-led alliance an existential threat to Russia. Sweeping through more than a century of history, he painted today’s Ukraine as a modern construct that is inextricably linked to Russia. He charged that Ukraine had inherited Russia’s historic lands and after the Soviet collapse was used by the West to contain Russia.

Ukrainians shrugged off the move as meaningless, but it remains a fundamental blow to their country eight years after fighting erupted the Donetsk and Luhansk regions between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces.

After his speech, Putin signed decrees in the Kremlin recognizing those regions’ independence and called on lawmakers to approve measures paving the way for military support.

Until now, Ukraine and the West have accused Russia of supporting the separatists, but Moscow has denied that, saying that Russians who fought there were volunteers.

European leaders had urged Putin to not to recognized the regions’ independence, and the EU foreign policy chief threatened possible sanctions if he did. Ukraine’s president convened an emergency meeting of top security officials.

According to the Kremlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron voiced “disappointment with such a development” but also “readiness to continue contacts.”

At an earlier meeting of Putin’s Security Council, a stream of top Russian officials argued for recognizing the separatist regions’ independence. At one point, one slipped up and said he favored including them as part of Russian territory — but Putin quickly corrected him.

With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine, the U.S. has warned that Moscow has already decided to invade. Still, the American and Russian presidents tentatively agreed to a possible meeting in a last-ditch effort to avoid war.

If Russia moves in, the meeting will be off, but the prospect of a face-to-face summit resuscitated hopes that diplomacy could prevent a devastating conflict, which would result in massive casualties and huge economic damage across Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy.

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at an EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels that, “If there is a recognition, I will put sanctions on the table and the (EU) ministers will decide” whether to agree to impose them.

Even as the diplomatic efforts inched forward, potential flashpoints multiplied. Sustained shelling continued Monday in Ukraine’s east. Unusually, Russia said it had fended off an “incursion” from Ukraine — which Ukrainian officials denied. And Russia decided to prolong military drills in Belarus, which could offer a staging ground for an attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

Earlier Monday, leaders of the separatist regions released televised statements pleading with Putin to recognize them and sign treaties that would allow for military aid to protect them from what they described as an ongoing Ukrainian military offensive. Russia’s lower house of parliament made the same plea last week.

Ukrainian authorities deny launching an offensive and accuse Russia of provocation.

Putin’s announcement shatters a 2015 peace deal signed in Minsk requiring Ukrainian authorities to offer a broad self-rule to the rebel regions, which marked a major diplomatic coup for Moscow.

The deal was resented by many in Ukraine who saw it as a capitulation, a blow to the country’s integrity and a betrayal of national interests. Putin and other officials argued Monday that Ukrainian authorities have shown no appetite for implementing it.

With the prospect of war looming, French President Emmanuel Macron scrambled to broker a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Putin, who denies he plans to attack Ukraine.

Russia says it wants Western guarantees that NATO won’t allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members — and Putin said Monday that a simple moratorium on Ukraine’s accession wouldn’t be enough. Moscow has also demanded the alliance halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe — demands flatly rejected by the West.

Macron’s office said both leaders had “accepted the principle of such a summit,” to be followed by a broader meeting that would include other “relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe.”

The language from Moscow and Washington was more cautious, but neither side denied a meeting is under discussion.

During the Kremlin meeting, several top officials spoke skeptically about a possible summit, saying it was unlikely to yield any results.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, said the administration has always been ready to talk to avert a war — but was also prepared to respond to any attack.

“So when President Macron asked President Biden yesterday if he was prepared in principle to meet with President Putin, if Russia did not invade, of course President Biden said yes,” he told NBC’s “Today” show on Monday. “But every indication we see on the ground right now in terms of the disposition of Russian forces is that they are, in fact, getting prepared for a major attack on Ukraine.”

Since Thursday, shelling has spiked along the tense line of contact that separates Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas. Over 14,000 people have been killed since conflict erupted there in 2014, shortly after Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

Ukraine and the separatist rebels have traded blame for massive cease-fire violations with hundreds of explosions recorded daily.

While Russia-backed separatists have charged that Ukrainian forces were firing on residential areas, Associated Press journalists reporting from several towns and villages in Ukrainian-held territory along the line of contact have not witnessed any notable escalation from the Ukrainian side and have documented signs of intensified shelling by the separatists that destroyed homes and ripped up roads.

Some residents of the main rebel-held city of Donetsk described sporadic shelling by Ukrainian forces, but they added that it wasn’t on the same scale as earlier in the conflict.

The separatist authorities said Monday that at least four civilians were killed by Ukrainian shelling over the past 24 hours and several others were wounded. Ukraine’s military said two Ukrainian soldiers were killed over the weekend, and another serviceman was wounded Monday.

Ukrainian military spokesman Pavlo Kovalchyuk insisted that Ukrainian forces weren’t returning fire.

In the village of Novognativka on the Ukraine government-controlled side, 60-year-old Ekaterina Evseeva, said the shelling was worse than at the height of fighting early in the conflict.

“We are on the edge of nervous breakdowns. And there is nowhere to run,” she said, her voice trembling.

In another worrying sign, the Russian military said it killed five suspected “saboteurs” who crossed from Ukraine into Russia’s Rostov region and also destroyed two armored vehicles and took a Ukrainian serviceman prisoner. Ukrainian Border Guard spokesman Andriy Demchenko dismissed the claim as “disinformation.”

Amid the heightened invasion fears, the U.S. administration sent a letter to the United Nations human rights chief claiming that Moscow has compiled a list of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to detention camps after the invasion. The letter, first reported by the New York Times, was obtained by the AP.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the claim was a lie and no such list exists.

Bloomberg

Russia’s Richest Lose $32 Billion as Ukraine Crisis Deepens

Ben Stupples – February 22, 2022

(Bloomberg) — The fortunes of Russia’s super-rich have tumbled $32 billion this year, with the escalating conflict in Ukraine poised to make that wealth destruction much larger.

U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday unleashed sanctions targeting Russia’s sale of sovereign debt abroad and the country’s elites, and said he’s sending an unspecified number of additional U.S. troops to the Baltics in a defensive move to defend NATO countries.

Gennady Timchenko heads the list of Russian billionaires who have seen their fortunes drop, with almost a third of his wealth disappearing this year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a listing of the world’s 500 richest people.

Timchenko, 69, the son of a Soviet military officer who met and befriended Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin during the early 1990s, now has a fortune of about $16 billion, with the bulk of his wealth derived from a stake in Russia gas producer Novatek, according to Bloomberg’s wealth index.

Fellow Novatek shareholder Leonid Mikhelson’s fortune has tumbled $6.2 billion this year, while Lukoil Chairman Vagit Alekperov’s net worth has declined about $3.5 billion in the same period as the energy company’s stock has slid almost 17%.

The country’s 23 billionaires currently have a net worth of $343 billion, according to the wealth list, down from $375 billion at year-end.

Markets slumped further this week after Putin recognized two separatist republics in Ukraine, leading to Germany halting an energy project with Russia and the U.K. imposing sanctions on five of the country’s banks and three of its wealthy individuals, including Timchenko.

Also on the U.K.’s sanctions list are Boris Rotenberg, 65, and his nephew, Igor, 48, whose families made their fortune through gas-pipeline construction firm Stroygazmontazh.

Read more: Here Are the Russian Billionaires Facing Sanctions Over Ukraine

Igor’s father, Arkady, one of Putin’s former judo sparring partners, sold the pipeline firm in 2019 for about $1.3 billion. He purchased a minority stake from his younger brother Boris five years earlier when both siblings and Timchenko were hit with U.S. sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

Additionally, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday he wouldn’t meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this week because it “does not make sense” given Russia’s moves in Ukraine.

MSNBC

Russia is attacking Ukraine. Here’s why Putin pulled the trigger.

A brief rundown of what helped bring about this moment.

Zeeshan Aleem, MSNBC Opinion Columnist February 23, 2022

It’s finally happening.

After weeks of building up troops along Ukraine’s borders and diplomatic brawling with the West, Russia has formally announced plans to attack its neighbor. Just before dawn on Thursday in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin announced Russia will conduct military operations in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine declared a state of emergency and there were reports of explosions in the former Soviet republic.

Why did Moscow decide to send troops and tanks into the country and risk potentially severe punishment from the international community?

Ukraine was not looking to fight its far more powerful neighbor and had already been struggling to deal with Russian-backed separatist rebellions in its southeastern Donbas region. So why did Moscow decide to risk potentially severe punishment from the international community?

Experts do not share a consensus about what motivated Russia to make its move, but there are a number of non-mutually exclusive factors that likely fueled this action. Much of it has to do with long-held concerns that Russia has about security in the region and its fear of Ukraine becoming increasingly independent from its influence. Then there’s the element of timing: It appears Putin calculated that he had the strategic upper hand and decided this was a particularly good time to strike to advance his interests.

Here’s a brief rundown of what helped bring about this moment and why Putin decided to act now.Russia is threatened by NATO’s expansion and wanted to draw a line in the sand

In December, Russia sent a list of security demands to the U.S. calling for, among other things, a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion right up to its borders, ending Western military assistance to Ukraine, removing NATO troops and bases from former Soviet Union territory and a ban on intermediate-range missiles in Europe — and it threatened to use military force if its demands were not met diplomatically.

Ukraine’s Zelensky Calls on allies to impose sanctions on Russia

The major item Russia is particularly concerned about is the looming prospect of Ukraine entering NATO, a possibility that’s been floated by the U.S. for many years but for which there is no clear timeline. Anatol Lieven, the senior research fellow on Russia and Europe at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of “Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry,” has likened that possibility to Mexico entering military alliances with China — a development that would be, of course, deeply alarming for the U.S.

This is a concern that predates Putin. As Lieven told me in a recent interview, Russia has long expressed warnings that NATO’s expansionism could trigger war:

Since the beginning of NATO expansion in the mid-’90s, when Russia had a very different government under Boris Yeltsin, the Russian government, and Russian commentators and officials, opposed NATO enlargement but also warned that if this went as far as taking in Georgia and Ukraine, then there would be confrontation and strong likelihood of war. They said that explicitly over and over again. So this is not about Putin.

The Russian foreign policy establishment as a whole has long considered Ukraine joining NATO to be a major threat, and militarily dominating Ukraine is a potential way to forestall that possibility.

Russia is unsettled by Ukrainian independence and democracy

Regional analysts have also pointed out that Russia fears how Ukraine’s status as a democracy — which has allowed it to develop an increasingly anti-Russian orientation in recent years — poses a threat to Russia’s influence over its neighbors, as well as Russia’s own internal stability.

Putin was a KGB officer in East Germany when the Soviet Union collapsed. That experience has shaped his perception of the threats that emerge from street movements, protests and anti-authoritarian rhetoric, according to Anne Applebaum, historian and staff writer at The Atlantic.

When Putin considers Ukraine — which has seen two major pro-democracy uprisings, the last of which led to the ouster of the pro-Russian president of Ukraine in 2014 — he sees a country with which Russia has rich historical and cultural ties moving irreversibly out of its sphere of influence. In fact, he also fears Ukraine’s influence on Russia, as Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert wrote in December:

The emergence of a genuinely independent and democratic Ukraine is viewed by many in the Kremlin as a direct attack on Russia’s imperial identity and an existential threat to the country’s authoritarian system of government. For a generation of Russian leaders still haunted by the pro-democracy uprisings that sparked the collapse of the USSR, the rise of a European Ukraine looks ominously like the next stage in a nightmare scenario stretching all the way back to the fall of the Berlin Wall. …

… He recognizes that as Ukrainian democracy matures and consolidates, it will inevitably inspire demands for similar change within Russia itself and serve as a growing threat to his own authoritarian regime.

Putin sees intervention as an opportunity to bring Ukraine back into the fold and undermine its potentially infectious democratic energy.

Russia knows it has an unusually strong hand at this moment

Energy prices are rising around the world, and the surge is particularly big in Europe — where many countries are dependent on Russian natural gas for things like heating their homes. Analysts say sanctions against Russia could cause an energy crisis in Europe on the scale of the 1970s oil crisis. That’s why we’ve seen hesitation from the Germans on joining threats to sanction Russia into oblivion if it entered Ukraine. Moscow knows Europe’s hands are tied to some extent, making the incursion less costly now than it might be at another moment.

Another factor with timing might be that Russia has decided that the Biden administration’s renewed focus on confrontation with China leaves it with less room to maneuver on Russia

Whether Putin will succeed in achieving his goals remains to be seen; it’s still unclear how big and how ambitious his incursion will be. And the possibility that this will backfire in some ways by engendering more hostility from Ukrainians over the longer term looms large.

In any case, as with all war, civilians will bear the brunt of cold geopolitical maneuvering. Let’s hope for the best for Ukrainians and their right to self-determination as the country faces off against a formidable foe and the international community scrambles to decide what it will do to deter Russia from going further.

Associated Press

EXPLAINER: What is the Russia-Europe Nord Stream 2 pipeline?

David McHugh – February 22, 2022

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has suspended the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline after Russia recognized separatist-held regions in eastern Ukraine.

The undersea pipeline directly links Russian gas to Europe via Germany and is complete but not yet operating. It has become a major target as Western governments try to exert leverage on Russia to deter further military moves against its neighbor.

Here are key things to understand about the pipeline:

WHAT IS NORD STREAM 2?

It’s a 1,230-kilometer-long (764-mile-long) natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, running from Russia to Germany’s Baltic coast.

It runs parallel to an earlier Nord Stream pipeline and would double its capacity, to 110 billion cubic meters of gas a year. It means Gazprom can send gas to Europe’s pipeline system without using existing pipelines running through Ukraine and Poland.

The pipeline has been filled with gas but had been awaiting approval by Germany and the European Commission.

HOW IS SCHOLZ BLOCKING THE PIPELINE?

Germany’s utility regulator was reviewing the pipeline for compliance with European regulations on fair competition. It’s that approval process that Scholz said Tuesday that he was suspending.

Germany was required to submit a report on how the pipeline would affect energy security, and Scholz said that report was being withdrawn.

WHY IS SCHOLZ TAKING ACTION NOW?

Scholz, who took power in December, backed the project as finance minister for his predecessor, Angela Merkel, and his Social Democratic Party supported it. As Russia massed troops near Ukraine’s border, Scholz avoided referring to Nord Stream 2 specifically even as U.S. officials said it would not move forward if Russia invaded.

But Scholz warned that Russia would face “severe consequences” and that sanctions must be ready ahead of time. Germany had agreed with the U.S. to act against Nord Stream 2 if Russia used gas as a weapon or attacked Ukraine.

The chancellor said Tuesday that Russia recognizing the independence of rebel-held areas in Ukraine marked a “serious break of international law” and that it was necessary to “send a clear signal to Moscow that such actions won’t remain without consequences.”

WHY DOES RUSSIA WANT THE PIPELINE?

State-owned gas giant Gazprom says it will meet Europe’s growing need for affordable natural gas and complement existing pipelines through Belarus and Ukraine.

Nord Stream 2 would offer an alternative to Ukraine’s aging system that Gazprom says needs refurbishment, lower costs by saving transit fees paid to Ukraine, and avoid episodes like brief 2006 and 2009 gas cutoffs over price and payment disputes between Russia and Ukraine.

Europe is a key market for Gazprom, whose sales support the Russian government budget. Europe needs gas because it’s replacing decommissioned coal and nuclear plants before renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are sufficiently built up.

WHY IS THE U.S. AGAINST NORD STREAM 2?

The White House was in “close consultations with Germany” and welcomed their announcement, press secretary Jen Psaki tweeted Tuesday.

The U.S., European NATO allies such as Poland, and Ukraine have opposed the project going back before the Biden administration, saying it increases Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and gives Russia the possibility of using gas as a geopolitical weapon. Europe imports most of its gas and gets roughly 40% of its supply from Russia.

The pipeline, which went forward under Merkel, has been an irritant in U.S.-German relations. Biden waived sanctions against the pipeline’s operator when it was almost complete in return for an agreement from Germany to take action against Russia if it used gas as a weapon or attacks Ukraine.

In Congress, Republicans and Democrats — in a rare bit of agreement — have long objected to Nord Stream 2.

WILL SUSPENDING NORD STREAM 2 MAKE EUROPEANS FREEZE THIS WINTER?

No. Even before Scholz’s move, regulators made clear the approval process could not be completed in the first half of the year. That means the pipeline was not going to help meet heating and electricity needs this winter as the continent faces a gas shortage.

The winter shortage has continued to feed concerns about relying on Russian gas. Russia held back from short-term gas sales — even though it fulfilled long-term contracts with European customers — and failed to fill its underground storage in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the shortage underlines the need to quickly approve Nord Stream 2, increasing concerns about Russia using gas to gain leverage over Europe.

COULD RUSSIA CUT OFF GAS TO EUROPE IN RETALIATION?

While Europe needs Russian gas, Gazprom also needs the European market. That interdependence is why many think Russia won’t cut off supplies to Europe, and Russian officials have underlined they have no intention to do that.

Meanwhile, the Ukraine crisis, on top of the winter shortage, is has already given European governments more reason to find their gas somewhere else, such as through liquefied natural gas, or LNG, brought by ship from the U.S., Algeria and other places.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is now deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, tweeted his displeasure after Germany suspended Nord Stream 2: “Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay 2,000 euros for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!”

The spot market gas price in Europe was 829 euros ($940) per thousand cubic meters Tuesday. It was 1,743 euros (nearly $2,000) in late December amid jitters over the Ukraine crisis, and prices have since fallen as Europe has secured more LNG.

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Associated Press writers Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow, Geir Moulson and Frank Jordans in Berlin, and Lisa Mascaro and Ellen Knickmeyer in Washington contributed.

Yahoo! News

Putin moves troops, Biden levies sanctions and Europe prepares for war

Alexander Nazaryan, Senior W. H. Correspondent – February 21, 2022

WASHINGTON — Europe edged closer to war on Monday as Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Donetsk and Luhansk, two territories in Ukraine on which Russia has laid claim for years. He did so under the guise of “peacekeeping,” even as he made clear that he did not accept the basic premise of Ukrainian sovereignty.

“Ukraine is not just a neighboring country, they are a part of our culture,” the Russian leader said in a Monday night speech. Many Russians, especially those with fond memories of the Soviet Union, feel much the same way. But it is not clear that they are willing to risk a costly conflict to achieve Putin’s vision of reconstructing the Soviet-era empire. Having concluded that a Russian invasion is all but assured, the United States and allied Western powers have committed to defending Ukraine with economic sanctions and shipments of military hardware — but have steered clear of committing troops.

“This was a speech to the Russian people to justify a war,” a senior Biden administration said on Monday of Putin’s remarks. The Russian strongman justified sending troops to Donetsk and Luhansk by first claiming that the two regions, which border Russia, were “independent” of Ukraine. International observers widely consider that to be a dubious claim.

President Biden spent the weekend in Washington, planning for what he has maintained in recent days would be an imminent Russian invasion. He responded to Putin’s claims on Donetsk and Luhansk on Monday afternoon with an executive order designed to “prohibit new investment, trade, and financing” by American entities in the two breakaway regions, according to a statement from White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

Biden spoke on Monday with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky “to reaffirm the commitment of the United States to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to a White House description of the call. Ukraine, however, is not a member of NATO, meaning that the U.S.-led alliance would not send troops under its Article 5, which provides for a collective military defense of member states.

A seasoned diplomat from his time in the U.S. Senate and the vice president to Barack Obama, Biden has vowed to restore the U.S. to the role of international leadership he claims his predecessor, Donald Trump, squandered. But the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal of U.S. forces — which took place almost exactly six months ago — appears to have tarnished Biden’s claims of foreign policy mastery.

Putin seems intent on challenging Biden’s leadership; late on Monday, columns of Russian troops were spotted entering Donetsk.

In recent days, some of the most consequential shuttle diplomacy meant to avert a war in Ukraine has been undertaken by French president Emmanuel Macron, who on Sunday appeared to broker a meeting between Putin and Biden scheduled for later in the week. Biden spoke with Macron and chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany on Monday. “They discussed how they will continue to coordinate their response on next steps,” a White House summary of the call said.

It remains unclear whether Putin intends to launch an all-out invasion of Ukraine or is merely engaging in a show of force to intimidate the country and its Western allies. He has made clear again Monday that he sees the expansion of Western alliances like NATO into former Soviet bloc countries as a threat. At the same time, responding to that perceived threat with an invasion could trigger harsh sanctions and the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline. Such moves could cripple a Russian economy that largely relies on resource extraction.

A keen student of Russian history, Putin is acutely aware that the disastrous invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s helped bring about the downfall of the Soviet Union. Then, Russia’s fledgling democracy was imperiled by the cruel and, many say, pointless campaign in Chechnya, a conflict that helped facilitate Putin’s own rise from obscurity. With his own support among the Russian population faltering, Putin risks seeing a full-blown war in Ukraine further erode his standing, especially if Western forces aid Ukraine as they have promised.

Late Monday, at the request of Zelensky, the United Nations Security Council was set to meet regarding the situation in Ukraine.

For the moment, the U.S. foreign policy establishment is operating on the assumption that an invasion will take place. On Monday, Biden ordered U.S. diplomats who had remained in Ukraine out of the country, into neighboring Poland.