Orbán says Trump won’t give ‘a penny’ to Ukraine after Mar-a-Lago meeting
BradDress – March 11, 2024
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said former President Trump would not give “a penny” to support Ukraine in its war against Russia after the two met at Trump’s Florida estate Mar-a-Lago last week.
Orbán told Hungarian news channel M1 that Trump wants peace in the Russian war against Ukraine, and the Hungarian leader said he backed his vision to achieve that.
“I don’t see any other person as determined and strong as Donald Trump,” Orbán told M1, saying Trump “will not give a single penny to the Ukrainian-Russian war, therefore the war will end.”
Trump has yet to publicly comment on the claims. In a Truth Social post, the former president praised Orbán for the meeting.
“Viktor is a Great Leader, respected all over the World,” Trump wrote.
Trump has repeatedly criticized spending on Ukraine, part of growing skepticism in the Republican Party. More conservative lawmakers in Congress have blocked Ukraine aid for more than a year.
Trump has said he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours, though he has remained ambiguous on how that would be achieved, sparking concerns that he would cede Ukrainian territory taken by Russian forces in the war.
Orbán added in the interview with M1 that “Trump has detailed plans for how to end the war, and they coincide with Hungary’s interests.”
Trump has also made a number of controversial comments about Russia. Shortly after the war began in 2022, Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin “savvy,” echoing his often warm remarks for the Russian leader during his time at the White House.
And this year, Trump said he would let Russia do “whatever the hell they want” to members of NATO that did not pay enough in defense spending.
Still, Trump, who has no major challenger left in the Republican primaries and is headed toward a general election rematch with President Biden, has not publicly said he would avoid giving money to Ukraine.
Orbán, a far-right leader who has also received criticism for his close relations with Putin, met Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday and Saturday in a high-stakes visit.
Biden slammed Trump for meeting with Orbán, who he criticized as a leader “looking for dictatorship.”
Hungary, a NATO member, has not provided any arms to Ukraine throughout the war. Orbán, who has frequently called for an end to the Ukraine war and met Putin in October, also said it would be “bad” if Biden were to win the election in November.
Moldova faces multiple threats from Russia as it turns toward EU membership, foreign minister says
Stephen McGrath and Aurel Obreja – March 10, 2024
Moldova’s Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi arrives for joint statements with Romanian counterpart Luminita Odobescu in Bucharest, Romania, Feb. 6, 2024. Moldova’s foreign minister says the past two years for his country have been the hardest and most tumultuous for European Union candidate Moldova in more than three decades as it faces threats from Russia in multiple spheres of public life. (AP Photo/Alexandru Dobre)
CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) — The past two years have been the hardest and most tumultuous for European Union candidate Moldova in more than three decades as it faces threats from Russia in multiple spheres of public life, the country’s foreign minister says.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, its neighbor Moldova has faced a litany of crises that have at times raised fears the country is also in Russia’s crosshairs. These included errant missiles landing on its territory; a severe energy crisis after Moscow dramatically reduced gas supplies; rampant inflation; and protests by pro-Russia parties against the pro-Western government. Moldova has also taken in the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita of any country.
“This past two years without exaggeration have been by far the most difficult in the past 30 years,” Mihai Popsoi, appointed foreign minister in late January, told The Associated Press in an interview.
Moldova gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but Russia continues to see the country — sandwiched between Ukraine and EU member Romania — as within its sphere of influence.
Moldovan officials have repeatedly accused Russia of conducting a “hybrid war” against the country — funding anti-government protests, meddling in local elections and running vast disinformation campaigns to try to topple the government and derail Moldova from its path toward full EU membership. Russia has denied the accusations.
Last week, Moldova’s national Intelligence and Security Services agency said it has gathered data indicating “unprecedented” plans by Moscow to launch a fresh and sprawling destabilization campaign as Moldova gears up for a referendum on EU membership and a presidential election later in the year.
“We know that the Kremlin is going to invest a lot of energy and financial resources through their proxies to try to get their way,” said Popsoi, a lawmaker from the governing Party of Action and Solidarity who also serves as deputy prime minister.
“They’re trying to bribe voters and use citizens to bribe them,” he added. “The Russians are learning and adapting, and they’re trying to use the democratic process against us … to topple a democratic government in Moldova.”
Tensions have also periodically soared in Moldova’s Russia-backed breakaway region of Transnistria — a thin strip of land bordering Ukraine that isn’t recognized by any U.N. member countries but where Russia maintains about 1,500 troops as so-called peacekeepers, guarding huge Soviet-era weapons and ammunition stockpiles.
Popsoi acknowledged that the situation with Transnistria is tense, and he worries that the speculation could adversely impact investment. “The situation will remain tense as long as the front line is 200 miles away,” he said.
The 37-year-old minister noted the testing period Moldova has been through has nevertheless also been transformative for his country, which has a population of about 2.5 million people.
“When we look at the energy security of Moldova, two years ago there was very little,” he said. “Now Moldova is quite independent or has alternatives and can choose where to buy gas and electricity.”
The same can be said, he added, for his country’s defense capabilities, the resilience of key institutions such as intelligence, police force, and justice reform. “Moldova is moving in the right direction despite enormous challenges.”
Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, says Moldova has faced a “constant onslaught” of Russian tests to probe weaknesses that might undermine its EU trajectory.
“It feels like a geopolitical race in which Russia is trying to stop Moldova from moving toward the EU, while Moldova tries to fend off Russian influence until it joins the EU,” he said, adding that the authorities “have been much more open about acknowledging the danger Russia presents to the country’s democracy.”
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova applied to join the EU and was granted candidate status in June 2022. In December, Brussels said it would open accession negotiations for both Moldova and Ukraine.
Although militarily neutral, non-NATO Moldova has boosted defense spending over the past year and recently approved a new national security strategy that identified Russia as a main threat and aims to raise defense spending to 1% of GDP.
“A significant number of Moldovans still live under the spell of Russian propaganda which has made a boogeyman out of NATO,” Popsoi said. “But that doesn’t stop us from cooperating with our NATO partners and building resilience in our armed forces.”
Since the war started, Moldova has received critical financial and diplomatic support from its Western partners but needs long-term investments, Popsoi said. The referendum later this year on EU membership aims to gauge where Moldovans see their future. Officials have an ambitious target of gaining full accession by 2030.
“We will do our utmost to make sure we get this message across that there is a better tomorrow and that is within the European Union,” Popsoi added. “No matter how hard Russian propaganda tries to convince our citizens of the opposite.”
After Trump ballot ruling, critics say Supreme Court is selectively invoking conservative originalist approach
Lawrence Hurley – March 10, 2024
WASHINGTON — Two years ago, conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch excoriated his conservative colleagues for ignoring history and the original understanding of the law in ruling for Oklahoma in a dispute over Native American tribal authority.
The 5-4 ruling against tribes “comes as if by oracle, without any sense of the history … and unattached to any colorable legal authority,” Gorsuch wrote in his dissenting opinion.
His complaint sounds a lot like the chorus of criticism from legal scholars on the left and right directed at the Supreme Court’s ruling last week that said states had no authority to kick former President Donal Trump off the presidential ballot.
For critics, it was just another example of how the conservative justices appear to selectively apply the legal methodology known as originalism, which focuses on the original meaning of the law at the time it was written.
The court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, was unanimous in ruling that Section 3 of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment cannot be enforced by states, but critics were quick to point out the absence of originalist arguments.
“What struck me is how much attention was devoted to questions of original meaning in the briefing and at oral argument and how cursory and frankly unpersuasive the discussion of the history was in the published opinion,” said Evan Bernick, a professor at Northern Illinois University College of Law.
J. Michael Luttig, a conservative former federal judge once considered as a potential Supreme Court nominee, said the decision was “a textbook example of judicial activism” that contained little originalist analysis.
“This is an abomination in every respect,” he added. “That’s just one of many respects.”
The ruling itself was unsigned and none of the conservative justices — including Gorsuch — wrote separately to explain their views.
This came as a disappointment to some self-professed originalists, who believe that Section 3 as written and understood at the time is self-executing, meaning that there is no requirement that legislation be enacted for it to be applied.
The legal argument that Trump could be barred from the ballot had been promoted in part by two conservative legal scholars, William Baude and Michael Paulsen, who wrote a law review article on the subject.
“In my view, the reasoning in the opinion is a disaster,” wrote Michael Rappaport, who leads the Center for the Study of Constitutional Originalism at the University of San Diego School of Law. He added that the ruling featured a “nonoriginalist, made-up argument.”
Rappaport argued in an email that the court is not an originalist court, but rather “one that sometimes decides things based on originalism.”
Defenders of the ruling have tended to focus on the outcome, which is aimed at preventing a cascade of similar actions throwing presidential candidates off the ballot in other states, rather than the methodology.
An adherence to originalism has long been favored in conservative legal circles, and Supreme Court nominees often claim to espouse it when appearing at their Senate confirmation hearings. But the conservative justices differ on the extent to which they apply it, if at all. Gorsuch and Justice Clarence Thomas are probably the most outspoken proponents among the current justices.
“Suppose originalism does lead to a result you happen to dislike in this or that case. So what?” Gorsuch wrote in his 2019 book “A Republic if You Can Keep It.”
At a 2020 event, Thomas said he aims to ensure the law makes sense to the average American.
“I think we are obligated when we interpret the people’s Constitution to make sense of it and be plainspoken,” he said. “I don’t think it’s that complicated.”
Liberal critics of the conservative majority have long taken aim at the court for ignoring originalist arguments that might lead to liberal outcomes or selectively applying them to reach conservative results.
They point in part to the ruling in 2022 that restricted abortion rights by overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade decision and last year’s ruling that struck down affirmative action programs in college admission as examples.
In an attempt to engage with originalists, lawyers presented arguments to counter the idea that abortion rights and race-conscious policies have no historical underpinnings in the law.
In both cases, “when text and history became inconvenient, a conservative majority was willing to scuttle” long-standing precedents, said Praveen Fernandes, vice president of the liberal Constitutional Accountability Center.
The court’s 2022 ruling that expanded gun rights by finding for the first time that there is a right to bear arms outside the home has also attracted scrutiny for its analysis of the history of gun rights.
With tongue in cheek, Michael Smith, a professor at St. Mary’s University School of Law, has taken the criticism to a new level in a soon-to-be-published law review article, “Is Originalism Bulls—?”
His conclusion? “Yes. You’re welcome.”
Smith said in an interview he was hoping to draw attention to how the court can pick and choose what methodology to use in a particular case, which the justices can then say leads inevitably to a specific outcome.
“I think those proclamations are at best bulls—,” he said. “At worst, it could be an outright lie.”
If Donald Trump returns to the White House, House GOP wonders: Who will talk to him?
Ken Tran, USA TODAY – March 10, 2024
WASHINGTON – As Former President Donald Trump has all but secured the Republican nomination in his quest to retake the White House, House Republicans are grappling with one key question as he marches towards the nomination:
Who’s gonna deal with him if he wins a second term?
If Trump wins reelection, someone in the House Republican conference will have to be the liaison between the former president and the lower chamber. Who that person will be isn’t exactly clear to some GOP lawmakers.
Of course, all administrations coordinate closely with Capitol Hill to enact their agenda, but the designee for Trump will be especially consequential because of his at times erratic behavior compared to his predecessors. Its unclear who he will listen to as Republicans attempt to advance their priorities. House GOP members have been in disarray for much of the past few months, and have failed at times to coalesce around major legislative policy.
From the sidelines as a candidate, Trump has already irritated some Republican lawmakers after derailing a bipartisan emergency spending deal that would have significantly overhauled border and migrant policy.
The lawmaker previously assumed to be the ambassador between the House and Trump has been forcibly removed from that position. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R -Calif., who was ousted last year, spoke with the former president multiple times every day during his administration to brief him on legislation during his term. At times, the former president deferred to his judgment on big-ticket legislation.
“The question isn’t who would talk to Trump. It’s who Trump would listen to and who he would trust,” a senior House GOP aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said. “I don’t think there’s anyone here right now that Trump would listen to like he listened to McCarthy.”
With McCarthy gone, the GOP conference is scratching its head over who will handle Trump.
“That’s a good question. I don’t know,” said Rep. Ronny Jackson, R-Texas, Trump’s former physician in the White House and an ally in the House. “I obviously have a relationship with him and I’m gonna try to be as useful to him as I can possibly be.”
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a primary election night party at the South Carolina State Fairgrounds in Columbia, S.C., Feb. 24, 2024.
A ‘good working relationship’ with Speaker Johnson
The presumed point of contact between the GOP conference and a Trump White House is naturally the top House Republican, in this case, current House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. But there very well could be a leadership shakeup if Republicans lose the lower chamber in the elections – which Democrats are feeling bullish about considering the lower chamber’s dysfunction in recent months. Right now, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House and Democrats would need a net gain of just four seats in order to win control of the chamber.
“Circumstances have required them to talk pretty frequently and I think that’s helped build the relationship,” Jackson said. A person familiar with the relationship between Johnson and Trump also described it as a “good working relationship” and said the two speak frequently through a range of issues.
One of McCarthy’s former top lieutenants, Rep. Garret Graves, R-La., noted Johnson was on Trump’s defense team in his first impeachment trial in 2020 and that has helped build a “close relationship” between the two. But nothing in the future is “guaranteed,” he added.
Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, an unabashedly pro-Trump lawmaker, didn’t express much worry since the former president has already built lines of communication with other lawmakers throughout his first term.
“I think there are people up here that will try to keep him informed.” Nehls said he does “what I can” to loop in Trump to the temperature of the House GOP conference and his priorities.
Among Trump’s other most ardent supporters in the House include Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio and House Republican Conference Chair Rep. Elise Stefanic, R-N>Y., the No. 4 ranking House Republican.
The number of lawmakers who have positioned themselves as Trump’s closest allies on Capitol Hill underscores the conundrum: no one knows who will lead along with the former president.
One lawmaker thinks Trump will personally pick someone himself.
“I think he’s gonna anoint someone,” Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, a former Trump aide who regularly speaks with the former president, told USA TODAY.
Nehls also thought it was possible Trump personally picks someone out of the conference to be the point of contact between the White House and the House. As expected from the former president, Nehls said “loyalty is very, very important,” to Trump.
Speaker of the House Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., applauds before the arrival of President Joe Biden in the House chamber at the U.S. Capitol Thursday, March 7, 2024, in Washington.
A ‘multi-pronged approach’ for a House GOP ambassador
If fealty to the former president is non-negotiable, that could rule out leaders of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus. Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., chair of the loose group of hard-right lawmakers, opted to endorse then-candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump in the presidential primary, drawing the ire of Trump allies.
If he does select someone out of the GOP conference to serve as House Republicans’ main ambassador, one former Trump White House official described it as a “multi-pronged approach,” with various factors that could determine Trump’s pick.
That includes defending the president on television and strong decision making. McCarthy, the official said, “had a good gut about things and more often than not, Kevin’s advice has been correct.”
Conservative firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., another one of Trump’s most outspoken supporters, pitched herself as one of those key members that could have the president’s ear.
“I’m always happy to be a point person for the president,” Greene said. “I would argue I’m probably his strongest supporter in the House.”
U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., shouts at President Joe Biden as he delivers the State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress in the House chamber at the Capital building on March 7, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Russia’s new guided bomb inflicts devastation and heavy casualties on the Ukrainian front lines
Tim Lister and Frederik Pleitgen – March 10, 2024
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Russia has begun using a powerful aerial bomb that has decimated Ukrainian defenses and tilted the balance on the front lines. It has done so by converting a basic Soviet-era weapon into a gliding bomb that can cause a crater fifteen meters wide.
The bomb is the FAB-1500, essentially a 1.5-tonne weapon of which nearly half comprises high explosives. It is delivered from above by fighter jets from a distance of some 60-70 kilometers, out of range of many Ukrainian air defenses. The FAB-1500 is another example of how Russia is fighting its war in Ukraine, inflicting massive destruction before trying to take territory.
Recent videos from the battlelines in Donetsk region have illustrated the immense power of these bombs as they have hit thermal power plants, factories and tower blocks – places from which the Ukrainians coordinate their defenses.
The FAB-1500 is directed towards its target by a guidance system and pop-out wings that allow it to glide towards its target. Joseph Trevithick, who has written about the development of the bomb for TheWarZone, says they “offer a new and far more destructive stand-off strike option for many of Russia’s tactical jets that also help pilots stay further away from enemy defenses.”
Law enforcement officers walk past a building damaged as a result of shelling in Donetsk. – Stringer/AFP/Getty Images
One soldier from Ukraine’s 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade told CNN from the frontline town of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk last week: “Previously, we were only shelled with artillery. Now the orcs [Russians] have taken on the town more aggressively [and] started using air force assets, particularly the FAB-1500.”
“Why they are using the FAB-1500? Because the damage done by it is very serious. If you survive, you are guaranteed to have a contusion.”
“It puts a lot of pressure on soldiers’ morale. Not all of our guys can withstand it. While they are more or less used to the FAB-500 by now, but the FAB-1500 is hell.”
The use of FAB bombs has become a critical element in the Russian offensive in Donetsk region, especially in razing to the ground Ukrainian defenses in and around Avdiivka, which fell in February.
Yuri Ihnat, Ukrainian air force spokesman, told CNN: “On the eve of and during the battle of Avdiivka hundreds of air bombs were launched within days. There were 250 of them used in Avdiivka direction in 48 hours only.”
The FAB-1500 is the most powerful in a family of Soviet-era ‘dumb bombs’ now being converted at a plant near Moscow into a cheap but potent version of a missile.
Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, says that “while manufacturing the glide kits is a bottleneck, the basic explosive package is something they have in huge numbers.”
So the Russians have very heavy firepower to bring to bear on fixed defenses, increasing Ukrainian casualties, though not as yet enough to fundamentally change the frontlines.
Ihnat told CNN: “This isn’t a cheap or fast transformation, but still it’s much less than the millions of dollars a missile costs. It’s pennies in comparison with a missile.”
Russian military bloggers began referring to the weapon last September when its accuracy was being tested. The Fighterbomber telegram channel noted that “after many months of trials and errors,” a FAB-1500 had “accurately” hit its “combat target” for the first time.
Final checks on bombs before flight of the crew of Su-34 Fighter Bomber on March 8. – Russian Defense Ministry/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images
Fighterbomber, which is close to the Russian military and has nearly half-a-million subscribers, claimed that the newly developed glide kit had increased the range of the bombs. It also said the FAB-1500 was accurate to within five meters.
Within a few weeks, both Ukrainian and Russian sources spoke of the use of the massive bomb in Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the north.
Then in January, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu was seen toured the plant of the JSC Tactical Missiles Corporation – a major arms manufacturer – in the Moscow region, being shown the wrap-around wings developed for the bomb. According to the Ministry video, the company said it had developed “a high-precision” munition converting old free-fall bombs into weapons that would glide to their target.
The director of the plant proudly reported to Shoigu that productivity had increased by 40% as it had shifted to 24/7 production.
Bronk notes that the converted FAB bombs can only be used against fixed targets, but in the grinding attritional war in the east, the main Ukrainian positions are generally known to the Russians.
The Russian planes dispatching these bombs are not invulnerable. The Ukrainian air force has claimed that it has brought down several Su-34 fighters in recent weeks. But most Ukrainian air defenses do not have the range to hit planes some 70 kilometers away.
Ihnat told CNN: “Our air defense is getting stronger, but still we don’t have enough…Their goal is not only to hit our frontline positions, but guided glide bombs are also flying further behind our defenders to hit rear command posts, rear supplies, ammunition, and so on.”
“The attack aviation Su-35 and Su-34 bombers don’t approach as close as they would like to. Still, if we had more long-range air-defense we would be able to take down these jets further [from our frontlines],” Ihnat added.
Bronk says the development of the glide bombs has given the Russians a way to use their tactical air force (as opposed to long-range bombers) more effectively after its limited role in the first phase of the war. He says the US Patriot complex is just about the only defense that has the range to counter the threat, but the Ukrainians have a limited number. And the missiles used by Patriots are in short supply given the delay in the US Congress passing a further package of military aid for Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials from President Volodymyr Zelensky downwards have almost daily pleaded for longer range air defense weapons to fend off the Russian aerial threat. The F-16 combat aircraft on which Ukrainian pilots are now training are unlikely to take to the skies over Ukraine until the second half of the year but may force Russian combat aircraft to stay further away.
In the meantime, Ukrainian forces on the frontlines, especially in Donetsk, are exposed to a blitz of Russian air strikes – sometimes more than 100 in a day, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
Just as the Russians previously wiped out Ukrainian positions with intensive artillery, they are now using a seemingly inexhaustible supply of these devastating bombs to leave Ukrainian forces with nothing to defend and nowhere to shelter.
Mihai Popsoi, the Moldovan foreign minister, told The Telegraph: “If Ukraine were to fail to resist, then we are next in line. Our citizens are fully aware of that threat.”
His comments come as European leaders rush to firm up their support for the tiny former Soviet republic.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, struck a new security deal with Maia Sandu, Moldova’s president, in Paris in recent days.
Last week, Lord Cameron, the foreign secretary, said in parliament that if Putin is allowed to defeat Ukraine, “Moldova would be at risk”.
As Moldova vies for EU membership, Moscow has ramped up its efforts to destabilise the country by encouraging separatists in the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria to break away, in a bid to retain its authority in the region.
Mr Popsoi called on EU countries to support Moldova’s accession to the bloc and provide foreign investment, arguing that greater European alignment would help bring stability to the region.
“Moldova’s EU accession is a very strong pull factor for the Transnistrian region that also stands to benefit from these positive developments,” he said. “We want to provide them opportunities economically in exchange for reintegration of the country.”
Moldovan honour guards during a ceremony in Chisinau, on March 2, 2024, to commemorate the fallen soldiers of the Transnistrian War – DANIEL MIHAILESCU/AFP via Getty Images
Relations have long been fractious between Chisinau and Transnistria, a thin sliver of land on the border with Ukraine, which has been de facto controlled by pro-Russian forces since the collapse of the Soviet Union but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.
“The wounds are still fresh for many Moldovan families,” Mr Popsoi said of the Transnistrian War which split the country from 1990 onwards.
Since Moscow began its full-scale assault on Ukraine, Chisinau has been concerned the Kremlin could use Transnistria to open a new front in the south west, in the direction of Odesa.
The statement came a few days after Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said the rights of pro-Russian separatists in Transnistria must be respected, and the day before Putin’s annual speech.
In the event, nothing happened, vindicating a Moldovan intelligence analysis which described the plot as “another campaign to create hysteria”.
The Kremlin has around 1,500 troops permanently stationed in the region and has warned Ukraine and Moldova that attacking them would incur serious consequences.
But more than the threat of invasion, Moldova is concerned about Russia’s attempts to sow instability through disinformation.
“We take this bellicose rhetoric with a grain of salt,” said Mr Popsoi. “The imminent threat towards our borders is smaller but the threat towards our information space, our political system, remains strong.”
Defence analysts believe Moscow has ratcheted up its disinformation campaign against Moldova out of concern that the country’s increasing EU alignment threatens to undermine Russia’s authority in the region.
Moldovan officials have long danced “to the tune of Moscow”, relying on the country’s neutral status as a guarantee of security, Mr Popsoi said. But in recent years, and, in particular following Moldova’s decision to back Ukraine, the two countries have strongly diverged.
Dr Jack Watling, a land warfare researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), believes the intention of the Kremlin in spreading disinformation is to topple the current government and install a pro-Russian regime.
“Replacing the president with a Moldovan politician who looks favourably towards Russia is the ultimate goal,” he said.
In a recent report, he described how Russia’s disinformation machine is seeking to blame president Sandu for the country’s economic woes and exacerbate the threat that strengthened EU relations pose to Moldova’s Russian-speaking population in Transnistria.
“Of course the Kremlin is very interested to maintain a high state of anxiety in Moldova, a state of disarray, a state in which anger at the government would be increased,” said Mr Popsoi.
Spreading disinformation in this fashion also has a knock-on impact on Moldova’s beleaguered economy, which was completely derailed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A Transnistrian border guard secures an area at the Transnistria-Ukraine border at the checkpoint in the village of Pervomaysk – SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images
“Our economic situation is already complicated,” admitted Mr Popsoi. “So any state of unjustified and heightened risk is not helping us to keep the economic situation under control and to attract further investors.”
To ensure Moldova’s long-term stability, and with it, shore up Europe’s eastern border, Mr Popsoi believes European investment is essential.
“We appreciate the fish, but we would be much better off with the fishing rod,“ he said. “An investment in peace and stability in our region is an investment in peace and stability in broader Europe and the world.
“The potential harm and cost further down the way is a lot bigger than the investment in peace and stability and inviolability of borders paid now.
“Moldova’s European future cannot be taken hostage by the conflict,” he said. “At the same time, we have also highlighted the importance for the government of Moldova to undertake all efforts to ensure that the entire population of Moldova can benefit from the EU integration process.”
An FCDO spokesperson said: “The UK stands resolutely with Moldova in the face of sustained Russian aggression and malign activity.”
‘A lonely radio nerd. A poet. Vladimir Putin’s crackdown sweeps up ordinary Russians
Dasha Litvinova – March 8, 2024
Artyom Kamardin, left, and Yegor Shtovba, right, stand behind a glass in a cage in a courtroom in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 28, 2023. Artyom Kamardin was given a 7-year prison sentence Thursday for reciting verses against Russia’s war in Ukraine, a tough punishment that comes during a relentless Kremlin crackdown on dissent. Yegor Shtovba, who participated in the event and recited Kamardin’s verses, was sentenced to 5 1/2 years on the same charges. (AP Photo, File)Viktoria Petrova is escorted by police for a hearing in a court in St. Petersburg, Russia, Friday, March 3, 2023. Petrova was sentenced to involuntary treatment in a psychiatric facility after she condemned Russian officials for sending troops into Ukraine on social media. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown. (AP Photo)Police officers detain a woman during a protest in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Ulan-Ude, the regional capital of Buryatia, a region near the Russia-Mongolia border, Russia, Wednesday, April 21, 2021. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)Police officers detains a demonstrator with a poster that reads: “Freedom for Alexei Navalny,” in Pushkinskaya Square in Moscow on Sunday, June 4, 2023. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)Police detain a man who wants to lay flowers paying last respects to Alexei Navalny at a large boulder from the Solovetsky islands, where the first camp of the Gulag political prison system was established, in St. Petersburg, Russia on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)Riot police detain a demonstrator during a protest against mobilization in Moscow on Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)Police detain people protesting Russia’s attack on Ukraine in St. Petersburg, Russia, Tuesday, March. 1, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File) Russian policemen detain a demonstrator protesting mobilization in St. Petersburg, Russia, Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022. In the last two years, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in an unprecedented government crackdown, together with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists. (AP Photo, File)
TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — A lonely man jailed for criticizing the government on his ham radio. A poet assaulted by police after he recited a poem objecting to Russia’s war in Ukraine. A low-profile woman committed to a psychiatric facility for condemning the invasion on social media.
President Vladimir Putin’s 24 years in power are almost certain to be extended six more by this month’s presidential election. That leadership has transformed Russia. A country that tolerated some dissent is now one that ruthlessly suppresses it.
Along with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in a crackdown reminiscent of the Soviet era. Some human rights advocates compare the scale of the clampdown to the repression from the 1960s to the 1980s, when dissidents were prosecuted for “anti-Soviet propaganda.”
THREE YEARS IN PRISON FOR A RADIO AMATEUR
Vladimir Rumyantsev led a lonely life. The 63-year-old worked stoking the furnace at a wood-processing plant in Vologda, a city about 400 kilometers (250 miles) northeast of Moscow. He had no family apart from an estranged brother.
To entertain himself, he bought a couple of radio transmitters online and started broadcasting audiobooks and radio plays that he had liked, along with YouTube videos and podcasts by journalists critical of the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine. He also shared posts on his social network page in which independent media and bloggers talked about Russia’s attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
Rumyantsev did not intend to reach a radio audience. According to his lawyer, Sergei Tikhonov, he listened on headphones in his own apartment.
In a letter from behind bars published by Russia’s prominent rights group OVD-Info, Rumyantsev said “tinkering with and improving” radios has been his hobby since Soviet times, and he decided to set up self-broadcasting as an alternative to Russia’s state TV, which was increasingly airing “patriotic hysteria.” To him, it seemed a better technological solution than Bluetooth speakers because the radio could reach everywhere in his apartment, he said in the letter.
But his social media activity eventually put him on the authorities’ radar, and they discovered his radio frequency. In July 2022, police arrested Rumyantsev, accusing him of “spreading knowingly false information” about the Russian army — a criminal charge authorities introduced shortly after invading Ukraine.
Rumyantsev rejected the charges and insisted on his constitutional right to freely collect and disseminate information, Tikhonov says. The law under which Rumyantsev was charged effectively criminalized any expression about the war that deviated from the Kremlin’s official narrative. In December 2022, he was convicted and sentenced to three years in prison.
Tikhonov visits Rumyantsev every so often in a penal colony about 200 kilometers away (125 miles) from Vologda and described him as “calm and resilient,” even though incarceration has taken its toll on his health.
He said Rumyantsev deliberately chose to speak out against the war and refuses to apply for parole as “it is unacceptable for him to admit guilt, even as a formality.”
Russian media reported on the case against Rumyantsev when he was in pretrial detention, and he started getting many letters of support, Tikhonov said. Some supporters put money in his prison account, while others have sent supplies — mostly food, but also books and personal hygiene items, according to the lawyer.
“In addition to making the man’s life easier, this (gave him) an understanding that he is not alone and there are many people who share the same values,” Tikhonov said.
ARREST AND VIOLENCE AFTER A POETRY RECITAL
Artyom Kamardin worked as an engineer, but poetry is his passion.
He was a regular at monthly recitals in the center of Moscow, near the monument to Soviet poet Vladimir Mayakovsky. The recitals continued even after Russia invaded Ukraine. One was billed as an “anti-mobilization” recital several days after Putin announced a partial call-up into the army in September 2022.
Kamardin, 33, recited a poem condemning Russia-backed insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The next day, police with a search warrant burst into the apartment he shared with his wife Alexandra Popova and another friend, and took the poet into custody.
Police beat Kamardin, Popova and their flatmate, and raped the poet, both his wife and his lawyer said. All three filed a formal complaint with the authorities, and the allegations were eventually investigated. The authorities concluded that police acted “within the law,” the Russian news outlet Sota reported, citing the lawyer without providing further details.
For the couple, the experience was so traumatic that they “still can’t openly talk to each other” about what happened, Popova said in an interview with The Associated Press.
In addition to Kamardin, police swept up two other poets who didn’t know him, nor each other. They charged all three with making calls undermining national security and inciting hatred. All three were convicted and sentenced to prison terms.
Kamardin got the longest — seven years.
“No one should be in prison for words, for poetry,” Popova said. She said she believes that her husband’s poem “insulted someone so much that they decided to scourge a defiant poet.”
The couple got married while Kamardin was in pretrial detention.
INVOLUNTARY TREATMENT IN A PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL FOR WAR CRITICISM
Unlike dozens of other Russians convicted over speaking out against the war in Ukraine and handed prison terms, St. Petersburg resident Viktoria Petrova is spending her days in a psychiatric facility. In December, she was sentenced to six months of involuntary treatment over a social media post condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Her lawyer has said that doctors can keep Petrova there for as long as they want and extend the term indefinitely once the six months run out. So the ruling “can’t be considered good news,” Anastasia Pilipenko wrote in her blog on the messaging app Telegram.
Petrova was arrested in May 2022 and placed in pretrial detention over a post on Russian social network VK, in which she criticized Russian officials for what the Kremlin insists on calling “a special military operation” in Ukraine, the lawyer told Russian independent news site Mediazona.
In her Telegram blog, Pilipenko has described Petrova, 30, as “an ordinary girl” who “merely shared her thoughts on social media.”
“Ordinary life, ordinary gym, a cat. Ordinary job at an unremarkable office,” the lawyer wrote.
The court ordered a psychiatric evaluation of Petrova after other inmates of her pretrial detention center reported that she kept up her “antiwar propaganda,” Pilipenko said in an interview with a local news outlet. These evaluations are common but in a rare turn, Petrova was declared mentally incompetent.
The lawyer argued that it wasn’t true and her client’s words have been misconstrued, but to no avail — Petrova was committed to a psychiatric facility.
In November, Pilipenko reported abuse by facility staff, saying that they forced a strip search of the woman by male workers, pushed her around, strapped her to the hospital bed and injected her with medication that left her unable to to speak for two days.
“This should not happen to ‘political (prisoners),’ criminals, mentally ill people, healthy people — anyone,” Pilipenko wrote on Telegram. The facility didn’t comment on the allegations, but shortly after she spoke out about it, Pilipenko wrote, the abuse stopped.
Trump’s vaccine rhetoric sends chills through public health circles
Nathaniel Weixel – March 9, 2024
Public health advocates are watching in growing alarm as former President Trump increasingly embraces the anti-vaccine movement.
“I will not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate or a mask mandate,” Trump said in a recent campaign rally in Richmond, Va.
It’s a line Trump has repeated, and his campaign said he is only referring to school COVID-19 vaccine mandates — but that hasn’t eased fears that the GOP leader could accelerate already worrying trends of declining child vaccination.
Trump “is an important voice. He has a big platform. And he uses that platform, in this case, to do harm. Because he’s implying by saying that we shouldn’t mandate vaccines, vaccines are in some ways ineffective or unsafe,” said Paul Offit, a pediatrician and vaccine expert at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.
The ironic part, Offit noted, is that the Trump administration kickstarted Operation Warp Speed, which helped drug companies use a relatively new technology to make two very effective and safe COVID-19 vaccines in less than a year.
Throughout the campaign, Trump has performed a complicated tap dance regarding COVID vaccines. He simultaneously wants to take credit for their speedy development but has also criticized their use and knocked his now former rivals for being too pro-vaccine.
In a post on Truth Social reacting to Biden’s State of the Union speech on Thursday, Trump again claimed credit for the COVID-19 shots.
“You’re welcome, Joe, nine month approval time vs. 12 years that it would have taken you!”
Every state and the District of Columbia requires children to get vaccinated against certain diseases before they start school, including measles, mumps, polio, tetanus, whooping cough and chickenpox. A plan to withhold federal funding would have widespread impact.
“Like most states, Virginia requires MMR vaccine, chickenpox vaccine, polio, etc. So Trump would take millions in federal funds away from all Virginia public schools,” former GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock (Va.) wrote in response to his campaign threat on X, formerly Twitter.
Since the public health emergency ended last May, no state requires students to get the COVID-19 vaccine, while 21 states have laws specifically banning schools from requiring COVID-19 shots.
Trump’s campaign says his comments only apply to states that mandate COVID-19 vaccines — making it essentially an empty threat.
“If you actually listen to the entire section, and also if you’ve been following his speeches for the past year, he’s talking about COVID vaccines in addition to masks in the same breath. This isn’t anything new,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in an email.
Experts say the politicization of vaccines has led to an increase in hesitancy and is sparking more outbreaks of preventable diseases like measles.
There have been measles outbreaks in 15 states this year, most recently in Florida, where state Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo did not recommend parents vaccinate their children or keep unvaccinated students home from school as a precaution.
Instead, he sent a letter to parents advising them to make their own decisions about school attendance.
Ladapo was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in 2021 and has since aligned himself with anti-vaccine sentiments, primarily about the COVID-19 shots.
Ladapo told people not to get the most recent shot and has drawn sharp rebukes from the medical community — as well as federal health agencies — for claims that the shots alter human DNA, can potentially cause cancer, and are generally unsafe.
Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said he worries that Trump is signaling he will empower more people like Ladapo if he wins reelection.
“I worry about any administration that doesn’t follow good evidence and good science, that they will put more and more people like them in their administration,” Benjamin said.
“We know that Trump had some extraordinarily competent people [in his first term]. But we also know that he had some extraordinarily incompetent people, and that in many situations, some of the really incompetent people carried the day because they aligned with his philosophy,” Benjamin added.
Robert Blendon, a professor emeritus of health politics at the Harvard School of Public Health, said the experience in Florida and the comments from Trump are part of a much broader Republican backlash against public health expertise and government mandates that can be traced to anti-COVID policies.
“It isn’t that he’s just going after these anti-vaccine votes,” Blendon said of Trump.
Trust in public health authorities has dropped precipitously among Republicans since 2021, and Blendon said Trump is a symbol of that. The anti-vaccine movement has never been associated with one particular political party, whereas the public health backlash is strongly Republican-centric.
“That’s made it very, very powerful,” Blendon said. “There are Republicans in the House and Senate, who when they’re not investigating public health, want to cut back the budget … so it has caught on within the Republican base very widely.”
Whether it’s anti-vaccine specifically or anti-public health more broadly, the sentiment is growing.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the percentage of kindergartners whose parents opted them out of school-required vaccinations rose to the highest level yet during the 2022-2023 school year.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known vaccine skeptic who is running for president as an independent, has gained a major platform to spread misinformation and widely debunked claims about vaccines.
He has falsely claimed vaccines cause autism, falsely declared the coronavirus shot is the world’s deadliest vaccine and questioned the safety of shots’ ingredients.
Offit, the vaccine expert, said he thinks public health officials could have done a better messaging job on the COVID-19 shots, and that by mandating vaccines they “inadvertently leaned into a Libertarian left hook.”
Still, Offit said he is concerned about the increasing anti-science rhetoric from politicians like Trump.
“I feel like we’re on the edge of a precipice here … you have the most contagious of the vaccine preventable diseases coming back to some extent, and with Donald Trump basically casting aspersions on vaccines, that’s only going to worsen.”
Orbán meeting offers preview of Trump’s 2nd-term strongman idealizations
Analysis by Stephen Collinson – March 8, 2024
Szilard Koszticsak/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock/File
Victor Orban is taking his blueprint on dismantling democracy to Mar-a-Lago.
The Hungarian prime minister first won power through a democratic election, then proceeded to weaken the institutions of that democracy by eroding the legal system, firing civil servants, politicizing business, attacking the press and intimidating opposition parties and demagoguing migration.
Former President Donald Trump has left no doubt that he’d try something similar in the United States if he wins a second term – so the presumptive GOP nominee will presumably be eager to compare notes when he hosts Orbán in Florida on Friday.
The prime minister isn’t meeting Biden administration officials. (A Biden administration official told CNN’s Betsy Klein that no invitation for a meeting between the current US president and Hungarian leader was extended.) Instead, he’s choosing to meet the man he hopes will again be US president next year. The two men have a long history of mutual admiration. The fact that one of Trump’s first moves since becoming presumptive GOP nominee this week is to meet a European autocrat speaks volumes.
Trump sees Orbán as the kind of strongman – unencumbered by legal and political restraints – that he’d like to be. Orbán also frequently genuflects to Russian President Vladimir Putin – just like the former US president. Orbán supports Trump’s vow to end the war in Ukraine if he’s elected within 24 hours – a process that could happen only on Putin’s terms and reward his illegal invasion. Their relationship is also helped by the Hungarian leader’s frequent praise for Trump. He knows the way to the ex-president’s heart. At a rally in New Hampshire in January, Trump diverted from his regular stump speech to laud Orbán in a way that offered a chilling glimpse into his own intentions. “Some people don’t like him because he’s too strong. It’s good to have a strong man at the head of a country,” Trump reflected.
Orbán’s far-right populism, fierce anti-immigration rhetoric, Christian nationalism and hostility to LGBTQ rights has made him a popular ideological model for Trump’s “Make America Great Again” followers. He has spoken in the past at the Conservative Political Action Conference – an annual gathering of pro-Trump forces – and Hungary will host another edition of CPAC’s overseas conferences next month.
In many ways, Orbán pioneered a demagogic style of leadership that is identical to that of Trump long before the ex-reality star and property mogul went into politics. His country is a member of NATO and the European Union but, like Trump, he has often taken steps that cut against the interests of the western democracies. He has, for instance, long feuded with the EU over his anti-immigration policies and slowed the entry of Sweden into NATO, which finally took place this week.
Ahead of his meeting with the former president, Orbán endorsed Trump’s views on Ukraine, in what will have been music to Putin’s ears and will have added to alarm in Kyiv about what a second Trump term would mean. “It is not gambling but actually betting on the only sensible chance, that we in Hungary bet on the return of President Trump,” Orbán told an economic forum on Monday, Reuters reported. “The only chance of the world for a relatively fast peace deal is political change in the United States and this is linked to who is the president.”
Trump’s antipathy to sending more US aid to Ukraine had prompted House Republicans to block President Joe Biden’s latest $60 billion package and has led frontline soldiers fighting Russia to ration bullets. Trump is not even president, but he’s already influencing US policy in ways that help Putin.
Biden used the early portion of his State of the Union address on Thursday night to castigate Trump over his hostility to NATO allies and affinity with the Russian leader. “My predecessor, a former Republican president, tells Putin, ‘Do whatever the hell you want,’” Biden said, referring to a comment by Trump to the effect that if NATO states didn’t make military spending targets he wouldn’t defend them. “A former American president actually said that, bowing down to a Russian leader. It’s outrageous. It’s dangerous. It’s unacceptable.”
Biden, who is anchoring his reelection bid on a warning that Trump would destroy US democracy in a second term, was quick to seize on Orbán’s visit to Florida. In a statement, Biden’s campaign rebuked Trump for meeting “Hungarian dictator Viktor Orbán, notorious for eroding his own country’s democracy and cozying up to Vladimir Putin (sound familiar?)”
The juxtaposition of Biden using his State of the Union address on Thursday to vow to fight to preserve American and global democracy and Trump’s red carpet welcome for Orbán eloquently encapsulates the political and geopolitical crossroads that America’s presidential election represents.
Much of Europe is already recoiling in horror over the possibility of a second term for Trump. But in Budapest, at least, he’s seen as a kindred spirit and his return would be greeted with great satisfaction.
Trump praises ‘fantastic’ Viktor Orbán while hosting Hungarian autocrat at Mar-a-Lago for meeting and concert
Kristen Holmes and Andrew Millman – March 9, 2024
Emin Sansar/Anadolu/Getty Images
Donald Trump heaped praise on Viktor Orbán while hosting the Hungarian prime minister at Mar-a-Lago on Friday night.
“There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orbán. He’s fantastic,” the former president told a crowd gathered for a concert at the Florida resort, as shown in a series of videos posted to Orbán’s Instagram account.
Trump added that the European autocrat is “a noncontroversial figure because he said, ‘This is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it, right? He’s the boss and … he’s a great leader, fantastic leader. In Europe and around the world, they respect him.”
Trump called the visit “an honor” and seemed to reference the pair staying in contact after he left White House in 2021, saying they “kept in touch.”
The meeting and subsequent admiration underscore Trump’s history of embracing global strongmen – at times at the expense of more traditional US allies.
The former president and a small group of close advisers met with Orbán for roughly an hour Friday night, sources familiar with the matter told CNN, with one of the sources describing it as a “social meeting” with no agenda. A separate source called it “friendly.”
Trump, according to a readout from his campaign, met with Orbán “to discuss a wide range of issues affecting Hungary and the United States, including the paramount importance of strong and secure borders to protect the sovereignty of each nation.”
Orbán, a fourth source told CNN, sought the meeting with Trump and had been planning to be in the US separately.
Afterward, Trump took him to a tribute concert that was part of a “members only” event at the club, featuring The Beatles and Rolling Stones tribute bands, along with the Palm Beach Symphony.
In one clip posted to social media, Orbán can be seen at the concert – billed as “Orchestral Elegance Meets Rock Legends” – presenting former first lady Melania Trump with a large bouquet of flowers as the band played “Oh, Pretty Woman” by Roy Orbison.
A Biden administration official confirmed to CNN that the White House did not extend an invitation to the authoritarian leader to meet with President Joe Biden, and Orbán did not request a White House meeting during his trip to the US this week.
Biden earlier in the day suggested the meeting between the Hungarian strongman and Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, was worrying.
Asked whether he was concerned about the Mar-a-Lago talks, Biden said: “If I’m not, you should be” – suggesting it was only natural for him to be alarmed by the meeting between Orbán and Trump.
Orbán’s far-right populism, fierce anti-immigration rhetoric, Christian nationalism and hostility to LGBTQ rights has made him a popular ideological model for Trump’s “Make America Great Again” followers. He has spoken in the past at the Conservative Political Action Conference – an annual gathering of pro-Trump forces – and Hungary will host another edition of CPAC’s overseas conferences next month.
The Biden administration has mostly declined to comment on Orbán’s meetings with Trump, but the president seized on the visit during remarks Friday evening in the crucial 2024 battleground of Pennsylvania.
“You know who he’s meeting with today, down in Mar-a-Lago? Orbán of Hungary, who stated flatly he doesn’t think democracy works – he’s looking for dictatorship,” Biden told the crowd gathered for what was his effectively his first rally of the 2024 general election campaign.
“That’s who he’s meeting with,” Biden added. “I see a future where we defend democracy, not diminish it.”
This headline and story have been updated with additional details.
CNN’s Kevin Liptak, Betsy Klein, Michael Williams and Kaanita Iyer contributed to this report.
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