Month: January 2024

Business Insider

Shooting down Russia’s overhyped missiles with Patriots is a win for more than just Ukraine. The war is an ‘intelligence bonanza’ for the West.

Chris Panella – January 5, 2024

• Ukraine says it has shot down 25 Russian Kinzhal missiles with Patriot systems since last May.
• Any such kill improves the Patriot’s accuracy and algorithms, benefiting other users of the system.
• It’s invaluable intelligence for the West and further highlights the need for more air defenses.

Ukraine’s made good use of its Western-provided Patriot air-defense systems, shooting down plenty of Russian missiles, aircraft, and drones, including some advanced, albeit overhyped, weaponry.

But the intercepts, while a win for Ukraine, are also gathering hoards of data for other Patriot operators, making the system smarter and better. It’s just one example of how the war in Ukraine is, as one missile-defense expert told Business Insider, an “intelligence bonanza.”

And as Ukraine defeats threats, there’s also a growing recognition of the importance of robust air and missile defenses, vital for defending and deterrence and, in Ukraine’s case, survival amid an increase in missile and drone attacks.

On Tuesday, Ukraine said it shot down all 10 of the new Kinzhals fired during a vicious air assault, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine praising the incident as “what heroism supplied with advanced systems looks like.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, too, hailed Western-provided air defenses like Patriots, IRIS-T, and NASAMS for saving “hundreds of lives.”

The reported kills nearly doubled the tally of Kinzhals destroyed in the war. Just Sunday, Ukraine said it had shot down 15 Kinzhal missiles using Patriot batteries since the first recorded intercept last May, which was confirmed by the Pentagon.

A Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson, Col. Yurii Ihnat, praised the Patriot’s ability to counter a variety of missile threats. The rate at which the Patriot may have intercepted Kinzhals indicates Ukraine has learned well how to operate its Western air defenses and developed a strong defense against the missile the Russians have touted as an unstoppable hypersonic weapon.

But Ukraine is not the only one benefiting from these engagements. For other Patriot operators, such as the US, new data about how to counter specific threats, such as the Kinzhal, is incredibly useful information.

“Every Ukrainian downing of Russian hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal with the Patriot missiles will improve the Patriot missile intercept algorithm — and increase accuracy for all Patriot systems, a benefit for the US, the rest of NATO, and other Patriot AD users,” Jan Kallberg, a senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis who was a professor at West Point, posted on X.

That data is valuable for both the US and its NATO allies, giving them a rare opportunity to live test systems and learn more about how not only to engage but also defeat Russian weaponry.

“The larger point is the intelligence bonanza that we are capitalizing on by observing or capturing Russian systems” without actually having any troops on the ground, Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who’s the director of the Missile Defense Project there, told Business Insider. He said the opportunity was giving the US valuable data on Russia for potential future conflicts.

Russia’s Kinzhal is an advanced air-launched ballistic missile that has been celebrated by Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, for its “unique flight characteristics,” high speed, maneuverability, and ability to “overcome all existing” and “prospective antiaircraft and antimissile defense systems,” characteristics that supposedly make it unbeatable.

The MIM-104 “Patriot” air-defense battery, an older system that first entered service in the 1980s but has nonetheless been praised by the Pentagon as “one of the world’s most advanced air-defense systems,” arrived on the battlefield in April 2023. The system, once operational, quickly put an end to Russian narratives about the Kinzhal, shooting one down in early May.

Later that month, Ukraine said its Patriot air defenses eliminated six more of these missiles.

The Kinzhal is an advanced capability, but so far, it hasn’t really lived up to its overhyped narrative of being an unstoppable hypersonic missile.

“The Kinzhal doesn’t fit into the category of either a scramjet cruise missile or a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle,” Karako explained.

He added that the term “hypersonic,” when used to refer to the Kinzhal missile, tended to be in a more literal sense, as in it could exceed speeds of Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound.

But while the Kinzhal is going fast, “it doesn’t really constitute sustained and controlled flight in the hypersonic flight regime,” Karako explained, adding that “it’s essentially a somewhat maneuvering ballistic missile.”

Maj. Peter Mitchell, an air-defense officer who’s an instructor at West Point, previously characterized Russia’s Kinzhal as “more akin to a giant lawn dart loaded with explosives,” saying it wasn’t capable of sharp turns or quick changes in flight direction.

That doesn’t mean Ukraine’s reported wins aren’t impressive — or that it’s not a boon for the US and its partners to see Russia use the Kinzhal. Instead, it’s quite the opposite.

Similar to just about any data collected in the war, whether it’s information on how Russia’s operating its Shahed one-way exploding drones, defending against Ukrainian strikes, or pounding Ukrainian defenses, the takeaway is a beneficial one for the West: By helping defend Ukraine, they learn more about how their enemy could fight them in the future.

Ukraine’s successes with the Patriot and other Western systems also highlight the enormous importance of air and missile defenses.

While the drone war being fought between Ukraine and Russia has been eye-opening for many armies, including the US, the air campaigns have also reinforced the realization of how much armed forces need robust air defenses.

The successful engagement of “high-end missile threats from a major power like Russia is ratifying and bolstering the demand signal for both the Patriot family and other air defenses more broadly,” Karako said.

During his December visit to Washington to plead for more aid amid Republican roadblocks in Congress, Zelenskyy expressed a dire need for more Patriot batteries in Ukraine. But the demand goes beyond that.

Take, for example, recent news of a handful of NATO nations’ plans to buy 1,000 Patriot missiles or Japan’s landmark decision to remove its self-imposed ban on weapons exports to transfer dozens of missiles to the US. Other air-defense systems, too, have been prioritized, as seen in the US aid packages to Israel in recent months.

“We’re seeing an increased salience and demand for air and missile defense because missiles have become ‘weapons of choice,'” Karako said. He said air and missile defense was not a peripheral concern but rather a central concern.

The Telegraph – Opinion

Putin’s hypersonic bluster has been exposed by Ukraine’s American Patriots

David Axe – January 4, 2024

Russia’s biggest-ever air raids targeting Ukrainian cities have killed scores of Ukrainians, injured many others and traumatized potentially millions in a country that’s bracing for its third year of full-scale war.

But these same air raids were an important reminder that Russian superweapons aren’t always so super. At least, not compared to the best Western air-defenses – especially the American Patriot surface-to-air missile.

On December 29, Ukrainian air defences shot down 114 of 158 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles the Russians launched at Ukrainian cities. During a second wave of attacks on January 2, the Ukrainians shot down 107 of 134 drones and missiles.

Most notably, Ukrainian missile batteries – Patriots, apparently – shot down 10 of 10 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles the Russians fired in the latter raid. Russian president Vladimir Putin once declared the air-launched, maneuverable Kinzhal to be “invincible.”

That was a lie. If anything, it’s one of the easier Russian munitions for the Ukrainians to defeat. And the failure of the Kinzhal has cast doubt over the whole class of hypersonic missiles – any munition that travels at least five times the speed of sound through the atmosphere while maneuvering. In 2018, Putin listed the Kinzhal as one of six Russian “super weapons”, unstoppable by any adversary. It’s clear that in at least one case, he was wrong.

Armies, navies and air forces all over the world are counting on speedy hypersonic missiles to give them a firepower advantage. But unless these pricey weapons perform better than the Kinzhal, their efforts might be misguided.

The 24-foot Kinzhal is an air-launched version of Russia’s first hypersonic missile, the ground-launched Iskander. The Russian air force launches the multi-million-dollar Kinzhals from a small force of specially-modified MiG-31 interceptors.

A Kinzhal ranges as far as 1,200 miles, which is more than a thousand miles farther than the best Ukrainian air-defenses can reach. That impressive range keeps the MiG-31 out of harm’s way, but it does nothing to protect the Kinzhal itself in the final minutes of its flight.

As a Kinzhal approaches within a hundred miles of its target – usually some Ukrainian city – it’s fair game for Ukraine’s Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 surface-to-air missiles. Ukrainian Patriots have been swatting down Kinzhals since at least May. But their greatest success came on January 2, when they shot down every Kinzhal in the sky.

Observers have scrutinized videos of the attacks to understand the Kinzhal’s disappointing performance. Disappointing to the Kremlin, that is.

A Ukrainian captured the final seconds of a Kinzhal’s flight on January 2 and helpfully uploaded the video to social media. Because we know how long a Kinzhal is, it’s a straightforward exercise to measure the missile’s speed as it plummeted to the ground. It seems the vaunted missile traveled no faster than Mach 1.9.

The implications are important. While a Kinzhal might speed along at Mach 5 or faster during the most efficient, high-altitude phase of its flight – right after launch – it slows down a lot as it descends and nears its target. As it gets lower and slower, it’s easy pickings for Patriot batteries.

And it’s going to get even easier for air defences to target Kinzhal and similar missiles. Each engagement is a learning opportunity, after all. “Every Ukrainian downing of Russian hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal with the Patriot missiles will improve the Patriot missile-intercept algorithm,” explained Jan Kallberg, a missile expert with the Center for European Policy Analysis.

This not only improves Ukrainian Patriot batteries, it also benefits Patriots belonging to allied countries. “Data quality is high because it is live-tested,” Kallberg added. “It is not a desk job or theoretical calculation; this is data from a successful intercept.”

In that sense, every Patriot battery or missile reload that Ukraine’s allies donate to the war effort is an investment in their own defenses against hypersonic missiles – and not just Kinzhals. The more Kinzhals the Patriots shoot down over Ukraine, the better the American-made missiles get at intercepting all kinds of hypersonic missiles.

Even Chinese ones. Taiwan, take note.

It remains to be seen whether that argument will sway fickle Western politicians, however. Pro-Russia Republicans in the US Congress have, for months, refused to vote on $61 billion in fresh US military aid to Ukraine – aid that could pay for a lot of Patriot components and reloads.

Ukraine has just three full Patriot batteries, each of which has radars and several launchers. That’s enough to protect just three cities: presumably Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. Ukraine needs additional Patriot batteries, and many more missiles to keep them in action during intensive drone and missile raids.

A consortium of Nato countries including Germany, The Netherlands, Romania and Spain recently signaled its intention to order, from US maker Raytheon, a fresh batch of 1,000 Patriot missiles. The nearly $6-billion order will support a new production line for the missiles in Germany.

It’s unclear whether Ukraine will benefit from this expanded production, however. If Nato is serious about defeating Russia, some of those missiles should go to Ukraine, where air-defenders are fighting a winning battle against Russia’s “invincible” hypersonic missiles.