October 2023 – Page 12 – The Tarbabys Blog

What Ukrainian Soldiers Really Think of Trump and the GOP

The New Republic

What Ukrainian Soldiers Really Think of Trump and the GOP

Ben Makuch – October 9, 2033

Two Ukrainian soldiers fire a mortar in Bakhmut, where some of the fiercest fighting of the war has taken place. TYLER HICKS/THE NEW YORK TIMES/REDUX

For starters: “Donald Trump is a fucking asshole.”

“Donald Trump is a fucking asshole,” said Anatolii, a soldier in the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces. The leaves are changing, and it’s a chilly fall day in Bilopillya, a village in the Sumy region where you can see Russia a few kilometers away. “That’s what I think of him.”

His brigade defends flat farmland that wouldn’t be out of place in a Tolstoy novel—except the endless, rolling scene, laced with crops and thickets of trees, is heavily mined and pockmarked with artillery blasts.

The question of who will become U.S. president in 2024 is far from his mind. Anatolii is one of a few soldiers in his brigade, made up of other locals, who defend the Ukrainian border with Russia. On any given day, he deals with barrages of artillery, Grad rockets, the pings of gunfire, and the occasional missile, one of which took out a local school in March.

“The problem is, they never give us enough weapons,” he told me in an almost exasperated tone about U.S. and NATO arms transfers. “If he comes back and what? Give us none again?” Many in the Ukrainian military and government already feel that they are not receiving enough military aid. The stakes of the nascent Republican primary, which has been defined by isolationist rhetoric, are potentially dire.

Back in Kyiv, sitting in a hipster bistro near the banks of the Dnipro River, I find it tough to remember that, less than 48 hours ago, a swarm of Iranian-designed Shahed drones were shot down overhead, the debris landing near baroque architecture and cobblestoned streets.

I’m in a casual conversation with a Ukrainian official in the upper brass of Kyiv’s military effort. The war, he and his colleagues believe, is far from over. The need for continued support from the West is vital.

“For now, it’s going to be the same, then up and down,” he said to me, referring to the kinetic energy of a conflict that has grinded to mostly a standstill as Ukraine’s counteroffensive crawls on in the east. “But in Donbas, there is always going to be crazy shelling and missiles all day long.”

Spilling in and out of the American news cycle, the war in Ukraine has settled into its moodier, teenage era: One moment you might be sipping coffee on a sunny, cloudless day in the picturesque capital city, safely sitting on a cushioned seat; the next, it could be raining missiles in the distance, with air sirens singing for you to get into a shelter.

The consensus among Ukrainians is that the duration of the fight is indefinite, with no peace deal in sight. Stateside, the question of what to do about a war that has settled into a stalemate has become one of the most divisive issues in the ongoing Republican primary. Trump, the front-runner, has long complained that the war is too expensive, and that he could simply end it if reelected; his copycats, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis, have largely followed his lead. The party’s establishment wing, all languishing in the single digits, has backed continued financial and tactical support for the war effort.

Whatever path the immediate future of the war takes, recent chatter from the GOP primary has U.S. and, especially, Ukrainian intelligence and military figures theorizing about what the future of the conflict might be should Republicans retake the presidency.

The main concern? The $44 billion worth of weaponry (and counting) that has been essential to Ukrainians’ ability to stall Russian advances and carry out some of their own.

There isn’t yet any level of overt panic about what the future holds. But there is a sense of vigilance and preparation for the worst-case scenario.

One American ex-Marine, a foreign volunteer who trains Ukrainian soldiers in combat, told me that the Ukrainian officers he schools in places like the Donetsk region are well aware of what a Republican president could mean for the war effort.

“Anyone on the front lines who reads English-language media and follows either U.S. elections or news around the funding is aware that Republicans potentially want to pull the plug,” he said, keeping his anonymity in order to protect against possible Russian reprisals. “They know that 2024 is potentially a big, big problem, and they have objectives to hit in the counteroffensive to make sure they’re comfortable in case Trump wins, then stops the weapons transfers.”

But, oppositely, the same Ukrainian official at the bistro shares the uncanny confidence in American resolve that his president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, expressed to The Economist in September. Shrugging off a question about the possible consequences of Trump returning to power, Zelenskiy insisted that a President Trump would “never” take an action supporting Vladimir Putin: “That isn’t what strong Americans do.”

“I think Trump would keep giving us the weapons,” the Ukrainian official told me flatly, explaining that the consequences of withdrawing support would be so profound that they make it unlikely for any leader—even one as vociferously isolationist as Trump—to fully pull out.

“They have already given so much money and weapons for our war, if [the Republicans] take over and Ukraine turns into a disaster, they would be responsible for that, just like [President Joe Biden was] in Afghanistan,” he said, referencing America’s disastrous summer 2021 withdrawal, which started the current president’s slide in the polls.

So far, the Department of Defense has unleashed a torrent of weapons transfers to Ukraine that have proved essential in the fight against a Kremlin war machine that is vastly better armed and manned. Everything from Javelin anti-tank missile systems, to the infamous Stingers used by the mujahedin during the Afghan-Soviet war, to F-16 fighter jets and M1 Abrams tanks has been promised in increasingly bolder Pentagon and allied packages.

It isn’t just national Republicans who have begun to question the scale of support for the war—skepticism is growing in other NATO countries as well.

“Everywhere some politicians are using Ukraine to make support for their cause,” said one senior Ukrainian officer with knowledge of war planning. “The American people must know it is much cheaper for us to fight than for you to fight.”

To him, the conflict is already a quagmire for Russia on par with that of the Afghan-Soviet war. But ending aid could quickly reverse that. The same soldier, almost doubting himself, was frank and saw the pitfalls of a Republican win.

“Of course, our fighting costs a lot of money, and we know there are no security guarantees if Trump wins.”

It is possible, however, that opinion on Ukraine will shift as the Republican primary progresses and the candidates continue to appear at monthly debates—especially since Trump, the most prominent voice against U.S. support for Ukraine, has thus far declined to participate. Still, Trump’s prominence and level of support could draw even more Republicans to question the war.

A growing number of Republican voters oppose further aid to Ukraine, and there’s good reason to believe that figure will rise as the primary process and the accompanying debates drag on.

Perhaps the most extremist take on Ukraine in the primary comes from the oft-arrogant Ramaswamy, who has made the outlandish demand not only for the dismantling of the FBI, but also for granting Russia Ukrainian territory. The pharma-businessman has gone so far as to label the Biden administration’s current posture “disastrous” and has declared that military resources for Ukraine should be redirected “to prevent the invasion of our own southern border” with Mexico.

But a Republican president might not be catastrophic for the Ukrainian war effort. Lucas Webber, cofounder of the Militant Wire research network, concurred. “It is unlikely, even if Trump truly means what he says, that he would be able to shift America’s Ukraine policy in any meaningful way,” Webber told The New Republic over email. “The U.S. political elite and security establishment consensus on Ukraine will leave Trump very little room to maneuver, as seen during his first term. Moreover, it is also highly improbable that either Ukraine or Russia would accept anything remotely resembling the territorial status quo on the battlefield.”

There have been efforts to push back, however. Former Vice President Mike Pence has made support for Ukraine a major campaign issue that he’s used to hammer his rivals, particularly DeSantis, whom he has attacked for minimizing the conflict.

“I know that some in this debate have called the war in Ukraine a ‘territorial dispute,’” said Pence, directly quoting comments the Florida governor made in March 2023.

“It’s not; it was a Russian invasion, an unprovoked Russian invasion. And I believe the United States of America needs to continue to provide the courageous soldiers in Ukraine with the resources they need to repel that Russian invasion and restore their territorial integrity.”

Even if the Republicans commit to a total withdrawal of aid to Ukraine, it is possible that contingencies will be put in place should Biden know his presidency will be coming to an end. If Biden loses in 2024, weapons could be sent over right before the Republicans take the White House.

Whatever position on the war the eventual Republican presidential candidate takes, there is no denying one simple fact: If Ukraine loses to the despotic Putin regime, it not only would bolster autocrats around the world (or perhaps even herald the renormalization of imperial conquest) but also would undoubtedly weaken the West.

But if Biden can hold out, perhaps all the fears surrounding an end to the arms flow to Ukraine will be for naught. NATO and the EU want to continue thinking of themselves as global leaders, both militarily and economically. The loss of Ukraine after so much was spent to save it would be the crack in their castle that countries like China and its allies will see as a further sign of the decline of the West.

“Trump is not coming back,” Anatolii said to me at the end of a long week manning checkpoints. “I don’t think so.”

For the fate of Ukraine, he’d better hope he’s right.

Ben Makuch is a national security reporter and former correspondent for VICE News Tonight. His reporting has taken him to the Middle East, Pakistan, Russia, and Ukraine, where he has covered the war since 2016. He hosted the 2022 podcast American Terror, about far-right extremism in the United States.

Florida has ‘Help Wanted’ hanging on it. Economist says labor shortage is here to stay

Miami Herald

Florida has ‘Help Wanted’ hanging on it. Economist says labor shortage is here to stay

Mary Ellen Klas, Syra Ortiz Blanes – October 8, 2023

“We’re hiring” banners hang above grocery stories in nearly every community in Florida. “Help wanted” signs are taped to storefronts and posted on hundreds of online job boards. Florida’s unemployment rate is nearing a record low, even as the state population grows.

“Get used to it,” said Ron Hetrick, who lives in St. John’s County, south of Jacksonville. He’s a senior labor economist at labor market analytics firm Lightcast.

This is Florida’s new normal, and the results will translate into competitive wages, longer waits for professional and domestic services, and higher costs of living — for everyone.

Florida is unlike many other states because of its fast growth, aging population and dependence on migrants for both skilled and unskilled labor, Hetrick said. But a beefed-up state law that attempts to crack down on undocumented labor is exacerbating the deep hole in the work force that may take years to close.

“What makes Florida unique is that people are moving from all over the country, but the unemployment rate is not going up — it’s going down or holding a low level,’’ Hetrick said.

According to the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which is updating its 2021 “Workforce Needs Study,” 73% of job creators surveyed in Florida reported challenges in recruiting qualified candidates, and more than 58% reported they anticipate a need for training and “up-skilling” current employees.

Hardest hit are industries such as construction, restaurants, hotels, roofing, landscaping and agriculture, which traditionally have relied on both legal and illegal migrant workers. They have hit a new hurdle with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ recent crackdown on undocumented workers in Florida.

At DeSantis’ urging, legislators passed a package of immigration related measures this year that attempt to keep undocumented immigrants from coming into the state and make it more difficult for those living here to stay.

Dependence on migrant labor

Greg Batista, founder and owner of G. Batista Engineering & Construction, has seen the effect of the new laws first hand. He specializes in condo development in Miami-Dade and Broward counties and employs about 50 people.

“The immediate impact is that we’ve got four or five ongoing construction jobs at this moment and fewer people to do the jobs,’’ he said. “The job that you told the owner was going to take five months is now going to take 10 months.”

He attributed much of the problem to the exodus of construction workers from Florida.

“They’re just picking up and leaving to a state where they’re more friendly towards migrants, where they don’t have to be looking over their shoulder every 10 seconds and saying, ‘Look, I’m going have to go to be deported, going to go to jail, or I’m going to be fined,’ ’’ he said.

According to a 2021 analysis of U.S. Census data by the policy research and polling firm KFF, undocumented workers in Florida made up 11% of the state’s workforce, including 37% of all agriculture workers, 23% of construction workers, 14% of service workers, and 14% of transportation workers.

In Miami-Dade County, the number of all immigrants, legal and undocumented, are even higher: 65% of the county’s employed labor force are immigrants, according to the county’s Office of cq New Americans.

According to a survey of 25 Florida construction companies in 2023 by The Associated General Contractor of America and Autodesk, nearly all the surveyed companies were having difficulty filling some or all craft and salaried positions.

Eighty percent of companies reported having to increase base pay rates, 65% reported delays due to shortage of workers, and 68% said they expected to add new employees over the next 12 months.

Jeff Lozama, CEO of Miami-based glazing contractor CMS Group, said his staff is made up of immigrants and, without them, the construction industry in Florida could not continue at its current pace.

“They often take on jobs that are physically demanding and require skills in jobs that most Americans are not willing to take on,’’ he told an audience during the Miami Opportunity Summit in August.

Lozama recounted his company’s experiences at a recent job fair in Liberty Square, a predominantly Black community with a small immigrant population.

“We had a poor showing. It was really horrible. No one showed up,’’ he said. They also participated in a similar job fair in North Miami, home to a large Haitian population.

“There were busloads of immigrants that showed up,’’ Lozama said. “… It just tells you how important that immigrant population is.”

Many professions in Florida are heavily dependent on legal immigrants, such as nurses coming to Florida from the Philippines. The state’s agricultural industry depends on H2-A workers, a federal visa program that farmers use to bring temporary workers that harvest crops.

“People aren’t fully aware of just how dependent our labor force growth is on immigration,” Hetrick said. “A lot of our homes, a lot of our foods that we’re eating are because of immigration right now.”

Enforcement crackdown

Florida’s strengthened immigration laws increase the penalties for anyone who transports an undocumented migrant into the state, require hospitals that accept Medicaid to ask patients about their immigration status and require employers with 25 or more workers to check whether new hires are allowed to work in the country by using the federal E-verify program.

There is little evidence that the laws have produced many arrests, but they have had a chilling effect on available workers.

Farmers are scrambling to find workers for the fall and winter harvest season. Restaurants, hotels and construction industries are also straining.

Rep. Rick Roth, a Belle Glade vegetable farmer and one of the Republican legislators who supported the laws strengthening immigration enforcement, said many Florida farmers are relying on a loophole in the law that allows seasonal workers who were employed last season to come back without having their immigration status checked.

“The good news is, we’re hearing pretty much from the industry that if you had a seasonal workforce back in April and May and you told them to come back in November, that’s not going to be a problem,’’ he said. “They’ll come back and we’ll get to treat them as returning workforce. They’re not new employees who would have to go through E-verify.”

Roth acknowledged, however, that the law has added to a labor shortage years in the making. “Absolutely,’’ it’s having an impact, he said. “The difficulty is measuring the problem.”

Florida’s unemployment rate is 2.6%, well below the national rate of 3.8%

Florida’s retiree dilemma

As Florida has grown, so has its labor force — just not fast enough to meet the demand.

In 2008, before the Great Recession, the state’s unemployment rate was 2.4% and the labor force was about 9 million people. In 2023, the unemployment rate is 2.6% and there are 11 million people in the workforce. By comparison, the national unemployment rate is 3.8%

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, there were 552,000 job openings in Florida in July, the last month with data.

The dilemma now facing Florida, Hetrick said, is whether to continue to encourage population growth when that growth is not producing workers to match the demand, or tamp down expansion to allow the labor force to catch up and costs to stabilize.

Remote workers are coming to the Sunshine State bringing jobs with them, new residents quickly find something once they arrive, or retirees are coming with demands for services but aren’t working while they’re here, he explained.

“The reality is, to get somebody to fill your job, you’re gonna have to unseat them from an existing job,’’ he said.

Retirees entering Florida “used to be a good thing, but it’s not anymore,’’ he said. “Because you cannot have people who put demand on an economy but who don’t contribute to the supply of an economy.”

Former Gov. Rick Scott used his “Let’s Get to Work” mantra to activate Baby Boomers and get elected in Florida.

But, now job creation absent a steady stream of new workers is “the worst thing you could possibly do,’’ Hetrick said, “because your existing employers are dying and they need workers.”

Legal immigration slowdown

Part of the pressure of the influx of migrants on the U.S.-Mexico border is happening because consulates shut down and stopped processing visas during the pandemic, Hetrick said.

He tells governors and other elected officials with whom he consults across the country, that “instead of focusing so much attention on talking about what we should not be doing, let’s focus on what we should be doing: Creating faster visa processing, getting companies involved in sponsorships” and expanding the federal temporary worker programs of H2-A and H2-B.

“You would see a lot more people pursuing the legal route if they knew something would happen in two or three months, rather than two or three years,’’ he said.

Getting creative

Batista, the Davie construction and engineering company owner, said the market has forced him to “get creative.” In August, he went on a recruiting mission to a large engineering conference in Puerto Rico, an American territory, where he hoped to recruit U.S. citizens and avoid immigration paperwork.

He was prepared to pay to relocate structural engineers to have them move to Florida to help fill the need for people to certify inspections to meet Florida’s new condominium safety laws, he said.

But, he discovered, Puerto Rico continues to rebuild after Hurricane Maria, “everyone is looking for structural engineers” and none of the prospective candidates wanted to move to South Florida.

“I thought the trip to Puerto Rico was going to be more fruitful and it hasn’t been,’’ Batista said. “I don’t know what else to do. If people aren’t there, they aren’t there.”

Scientists warn of ‘silent pandemic’ stirring across the globe: ‘[This] could cause 10 million deaths per year by 2050’

The Cool Down

Scientists warn of ‘silent pandemic’ stirring across the globe: ‘[This] could cause 10 million deaths per year by 2050’

Leo Collis – October 7, 2023

After the coronavirus pandemic, the world is on high alert for the next global health emergency.

Scientists are now warning about the risk to humans from the food production network, and factory farms are among the most concerning areas that could spawn the next virus.

What’s happening?

At the Compassion in World Farming event in London in May 2023, scientists, policymakers, and farmers met to discuss challenges within the industry and potential threats to human health.

Among the issues discussed was the use of antibiotics in factory farming, which has been found to lead to a potential problem when humans eat meat.

“Most antibiotic resistance in human medicine is actually due to the human use of antibiotics,” scientific adviser at the Alliance to Save Our Antibiotics Cóilín Nunan told Euronews.green. “However, there is clear evidence that the farm use of antibiotics is also contributing, not just to antibiotic resistance in farm animals, but also to infections in humans.”

With animals kept in close quarters on factory farms, hygiene standards are poor, and disease spreads more easily, so antibiotic use is frequent.

Why is this a concern?

The World Health Organization has described antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as a “silent pandemic” and one of the top 10 global public health threats. Bacterial AMR has already been estimated to kill 1.3 million people a year.

If antibiotics are overused in farming, it could impact humans higher up the food chain as bacteria develop resistance to the drugs and multiply.

“If some of the bacteria have developed resistance, then these bacteria are unaffected by the antibiotic and can continue to proliferate, spreading from human to human, or from animal to animal, or from animal to human,” Nunan explained, per Euronews.green.

Nunan also described how animals fed antibiotics could end up with resistant bacteria in their gut at slaughter, leading to potential contamination of the carcass. This can spread to humans when handled or when undercooked meat is eaten.

Further, resistant bacteria can also enter the food system via animal manure, which is used to fertilize crops.

How can we prevent a “silent pandemic”?

Controlling AMR is essential, as experts predict it “could cause up to 10 million deaths a year by 2050,” per Euronews.green.

Nunan noted that better animal husbandry, such as providing animals with more space and improving hygiene, is one of the keys to preventing the spread of disease and, thus, the overuse of antibiotics. But there are already positive changes happening in the farming industry.

The EU has banned all forms of routine antibiotics on farms and the use of antibiotics to make up for poor farm husbandry.

The U.K. has also seen a 55% decrease in antibiotic use on farms since 2014, Euronews.green reported.

Consumer choices like buying responsibly sourced meat can also make a difference and discourage cheap and intensive farming methods that lead to animal disease and potential problems later on in the food chain.

Israel Attacks Condemned by President Biden as TV News Plans Special Reports: ‘Terrorism Is Never Justified’

Variety

Israel Attacks Condemned by President Biden as TV News Plans Special Reports: ‘Terrorism Is Never Justified’

Michaela Zee – October 7, 2023

Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel Saturday, in which they fired thousands of rockets, sent dozens of fighters into Israeli towns near the Gaza Strip and kidnapped Israeli civilians and soldiers. The attacks started during a religious holiday weekend in Israel, and nearly 300 people have been killed, according to the New York Times.

President Joe Biden shared a statement regarding the attacks against Israel: “This morning, I spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu about the horrific and ongoing attacks in Israel. The United States unequivocally condemns this appalling assault against Israel by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, and I made clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that we stand ready to offer all appropriate means of support to the Government and people of Israel. Terrorism is never justified. Israel has a right to defend itself and its people. The United States warns against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation. My Administration’s support for Israel’s security is rock solid and unwavering.”

Vice President Kamala Harris posted a statement on X/Twitter, writing that Biden’s and her support for “Israel’s security is unwavering.”

Doug’s and my prayers are with the victims of the heinous terrorist attacks in Israel. @POTUS and my support for Israel’s security is unwavering.
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) October 7, 2023

NBC News broadcast a special report on the Hamas’ surprise attack at 6 a.m. ET, featuring “NBC News Now” anchor Joe Fryer and NBC News senior legal correspondent Laura Jarrett. They were joined by NBC News foreign correspondents Raf Sanchez and Richard Engel and foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell.

“We haven’t seen something like this, this level of sophistication, to catch the Israelis off guard and to keep this operation moving for hours now. This began at dawn, its is already afternoon in Israel. So, this has been going on for multiple hours now,” said Richard Engel, NBC News chief foreign correspondent, during Saturday’s special report. “I think it’s very likely that we’re going to see an escalation in some sort of small-scale war, maybe bigger scale war, between Hamas and Israel. And I think we’re in the early phases of that right now.”

MSNBC announced the news channel will continue live, ongoing coverage of the latest developments in Israel, with Ayman Mohyeldin anchoring coverage live from New York starting at 8 p.m. ET. and José Díaz-Balart picking up coverage from 11 p.m. to 2 a.m.

Fox News Channel is also presenting continuous coverage of the developing conflict in Israel, with FNC foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reporting live from southern Israel. FNC chief political anchor and “Special Report’s” Bret Baier will contribute to live coverage throughout the day, while chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin will report from the Pentagon with correspondent Lucas Tomlinson reporting from the White House.

NewsNation will present a special edition of “NewsNation Prime” to cover the war in Israel and the Gaza Strip from 7 to 10 p.m. ET. Chief Washington anchor Leland Vittert will co-anchor from Washington D.C. with “NewsNation Prime’s” Natasha Zouves and “The Hill’s” Blake Burman live from the White House.

CNN chief Washington correspondent Jake Tapper will anchor “CNN Special Coverage: Israel at War” from 9 p.m. to 12 a.m. ET. CNN’s Nic Robertson is covering live from Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv.

Hamas surprise attack out of Gaza stuns Israel and leaves hundreds dead in fighting, retaliation

Associated Press

Hamas surprise attack out of Gaza stuns Israel and leaves hundreds dead in fighting, retaliation

Josef Federman and Issam Adwan – October 7, 2023

People look at the damage from a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip in Tel Aviv, Israel, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Moti Milrod)

Fire and smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike, in Gaza City, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. The militant Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip carried out an unprecedented, multi-front attack on Israel at daybreak Saturday, firing thousands of rockets as dozens of Hamas fighters infiltrated the heavily fortified border in several locations by air, land, and sea, killing dozens and stunning the country. Palestinian health officials reported scores of deaths from Israeli airstrikes in Gaza. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

Palestinians inspect the rubble of a building after it was struck by an Israeli airstrike, in Gaza City, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. The militant Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip carried out an unprecedented, multi-front attack on Israel at daybreak Saturday, firing thousands of rockets as dozens of Hamas fighters infiltrated the heavily fortified border in several locations by air, land, and sea and catching the country off-guard on a major holiday. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

An Israeli woman react over the body of her relative who was killed by Palestinian armed militants who entered from the Gaza strip, in the southern Israeli city of Sderot, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. Hamas, the militant group ruling the Gaza Strip, carried out a surprise, multi-front attack on Israel at daybreak Saturday, firing thousands of rockets and infiltrating the country by land, air and sea. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)

An Israeli soldier stands by the bodies of Israelis killed by Palestinian armed militants who entered from the Gaza Strip, in the southern Israeli city of Sderot, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. Hamas, the militant group ruling the Gaza Strip, carried out a surprise, multi-front attack on Israel at daybreak Saturday, firing thousands of rockets and infiltrating the country by land, air and sea. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)

JERUSALEM (AP) — Backed by a barrage of rockets, Hamas militants stormed from the blockaded Gaza Strip into nearby Israeli towns, killing dozens and abducting others in an unprecedented surprise attack during a major Jewish holiday Saturday. A stunned Israel launched airstrikes in Gaza, with its prime minister saying the country is now at war with Hamas and vowing to inflict an “unprecedented price.”

In an assault of startling breadth, Hamas gunmen rolled into as many as 22 locations outside the Gaza Strip, including towns and other communities as far as 15 miles (24 kilometers) from the Gaza border. In some places they gunned down civilians and soldiers as Israel’s military scrambled to muster a response.

Gunbattles continued well after nightfall, and militants held hostages in standoffs in two towns. Militants occupied a police station in a third town, where Israeli forces struggled until Sunday morning to finally reclaim the building.

Before daybreak Sunday, militants fired more rockets from Gaza, hitting a hospital in the Israeli coastal town of Ashkelon. The hospital sustained damage, said senior hospital official Tal Bergman. Video provided by Barzilai Medical Center showed a large hole punched into a wall and chunks of debris scattered on the ground of what appeared to an empty rooms and a hallway. There was no report of casualties.

Israeli media, citing rescue service officials, said at least 250 people were killed and 1,500 wounded in Saturday’s attack, making it the deadliest in Israel in decades. At least 232 people in the Gaza Strip were killed and 1,700 wounded in Israeli strikes, the Palestinian Health Ministry said. Hamas fighters took an unknown number of civilians and soldiers captive into Gaza.

The conflict threatened to escalate with Israel’s vows of retaliation. Previous conflicts between Israel and Gaza’s Hamas rulers brought widespread death and destruction in Gaza and days of rocket fire on Israeli towns. The situation is potentially more volatile now, with Israel’s far-right government stung by the security breach and with Palestinians in despair over a never-ending occupation in the West Bank and suffocating blockade of Gaza.

In a televised address Saturday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who earlier declared Israel to be at war, said the military will use all of its strength to destroy Hamas’ capabilities. But he warned, “This war will take time. It will be difficult.”

“All the places that Hamas hides in, operates from, we will turn them into ruins,” he added. “Get out of there now,” he told Gaza residents, who have no way to leave the tiny, overcrowded Mediterranean territory of 2.3 million people.

Early Sunday, the Israeli military issued warnings in Arabic to residents of communities near the border with Israel to leave their homes and move to areas deeper inside the tiny enclave. In previous Israel-Hamas fighting on Gaza soil, the Gaza communities near the border were hit particularly hard, both by artillery fire and at times by ground incursions.

Gaza’s residents have endured a border blockade, enforced to varying degrees by Israel and Egypt, since Hamas militants seized control in 2007. Civilians are trapped and particularly vulnerable during wars and bouts of fighting.

Israeli airstrikes in Gaza intensified after nightfall, flattening residential buildings in giant explosions, including a 14-story tower that held dozens of apartments as well as Hamas offices in central Gaza City. Israeli forces fired a warning just before.

Around 3 a.m., a loudspeaker atop a mosque in Gaza City blared a stark warning to residents of nearby apartment buildings: Evacuate immediately. Just minutes later, an Israeli airstrike reduced one nearby five-story building to ashes.

After one Israeli strike, a Hamas rocket barrage hit four cities, including Tel Aviv and a nearby suburb. Throughout the day, Hamas fired more than 3,500 rockets, the Israeli military said.

The strength, sophistication and timing of the Saturday morning attack shocked Israelis. Hamas fighters used explosives to break through the border fence enclosing Gaza, then crossed with motorcycles, pickup trucks, paragliders and speed boats on the coast.

In some towns, civilians’ bodies lay where they had encountered advancing gunmen. At least nine people gunned down at a bus shelter in the town of Sderot were laid out on stretchers on the street, their bags still on the curb nearby. One woman, screaming, embraced the body of a family member sprawled under a sheet next to a toppled motorcycle.

In amateur video, hundreds of terrified young people who had been dancing at a rave fled for their lives after Hamas militants entered the area and began firing at them. Israeli media said dozens of people were killed.

Among the dead was Col. Jonathan Steinberg, a senior officer who commanded the Israeli military’s Nahal Brigade, a prominent infantry unit.

The shadowy leader of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Deif, said the assault was in response to the 16-year blockade of Gaza, Israeli raids inside West Bank cities over the past year, violence at Al Aqsa — the disputed Jerusalem holy site sacred to Jews as the Temple Mount — increasing attacks by settlers on Palestinians and the growth of settlements.

“Enough is enough,” Deif, who does not appear in public, said in the recorded message. He said the attack was only the start of what he called “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm” and called on Palestinians from east Jerusalem to northern Israel to join the fight.

The Hamas incursion on Simchat Torah, a normally joyous day when Jews complete the annual cycle of reading the Torah scroll, revived painful memories of the 1973 Mideast war practically 50 years to the day, in which Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, aiming to take back Israeli-occupied territories.

Comparisons to one of the most traumatic moments in Israeli history sharpened criticism of Netanyahu and his far-right allies, who had campaigned on more aggressive action against threats from Gaza. Political commentators lambasted the government and military over its failure to anticipate what appeared to be a Hamas attack unseen in its level of planning and coordination.

Asked by reporters how Hamas had managed to catch the army off guard, Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli army spokesman, replied, “That’s a good question.”

The abduction of Israeli civilians and soldiers also raised a particularly thorny issue for Israel, which has a history of making heavily lopsided exchanges to bring captive Israelis home. Israel is holding thousands of Palestinians in its prisons. Hecht confirmed that “substantial” number of Israelis were abducted Saturday.

Associated Press photos showed an elderly Israeli woman being brought into Gaza on a golf cart by Hamas gunmen and another woman squeezed between two fighters on a motorcycle. AP journalists saw four people taken from the kibbutz of Kfar Azza, including two women.

In Gaza, a black jeep pulled to a stop and, when the rear door opened, a young Israeli woman stumbled out, bleeding from the head and with her hands tied behind her back. A man waving a gun in the air grabbed her by the hair and pushed her into the vehicle’s back seat. Israeli TV reported that workers from Thailand and the Philippines were also among the captives.

Netanyahu vowed that Hamas “will pay an unprecedented price.” A major question now was whether Israel will launch a ground assault into Gaza, a move that in the past has brought intensified casualties.

Israel’s military was bringing four divisions of troops as well as tanks to the Gaza border, joining 31 battalions already in the area, the spokesman Hagari said.

In Gaza, much of the population was thrown into darkness after nightfall as electrical supplies from Israel — which supplies almost all the territories’ power — were cut off. Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that Israel would stop supplying electricity, fuel and goods to Gaza.

Hamas said it had planned for a potentially long fight. “We are prepared for all options, including all-out war,” the deputy head of the Hamas political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri, told Al-Jazeera TV. “We are ready to do whatever is necessary for the dignity and freedom of our people.”

U.S. President Joe Biden said from the White House that he had spoken with Netanyahu to say the United States “stands with the people of Israel in the face of these terrorist assaults. Israel has the right to defend itself and its people, full stop.”

Saudi Arabia, which has been in talks with the U.S. about normalizing relations with Israel, called on both sides to exercise restraint. The kingdom said it had repeatedly warned about the danger of “the situation exploding as a result of the continued occupation (and) the Palestinian people being deprived of their legitimate rights.”

Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group congratulated Hamas, praising the attack as a response to “Israeli crimes.” The group said its command in Lebanon was in contact with Hamas about the operation.

The attack comes at a time of historic division within Israel over Netanyahu’s proposal to overhaul the judiciary. Mass protests over the plan have sent hundreds of thousands of Israeli demonstrators into the streets and prompted hundreds of military reservists to avoid volunteer duty — turmoil that has raised fears over the military’s battlefield readiness.

It also comes at a time of mounting tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, with the peace process effectively dead for years. Over the past year, Israel’s far-right government has ramped up settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, Israeli settler violence has displaced hundreds of Palestinians there and tensions have flared around a flashpoint Jerusalem holy site.

Palestinians demonstrated in towns and cities around the West Bank on Saturday night. Palestinian health officials said Israeli fire killed five there, but gave few details.

Adwan reported from Rafah, Gaza Strip. Associated Press writers Wafaa Shurafa in Gaza City and Isabel DeBre and Julia Frankel in Jerusalem contributed to this report.

Feeling Terrible After Your COVID Shot? Then It’s Probably Working.

The New York Times

Feeling Terrible After Your COVID Shot? Then It’s Probably Working.

Apoorva Mandavilli – October 7, 2023

A Maryland resident receives a COVID-19 booster shot at Meritus Medical Center in Hagerstown, Md. on Feb. 22, 2022. (Kenny Holston/The New York Times)

A new study has an encouraging message for Americans who shy away from COVID shots because of worries about side effects: The chills, fatigue, headache and malaise that can follow vaccination may be signs of a vigorous immune response.

People who had those side effects after the second dose of a COVID vaccine had more antibodies against the coronavirus at one month and six months after the shot, compared with those who did not have symptoms, according to the new study. Increases in skin temperature and heart rate also signaled higher antibody levels.

“We know that vaccine uptake can be challenging, and in some cases, it can be so because some people have strong reactions to the vaccine,” said Aric Prather, a clinical psychologist at the University of California, San Francisco, who led the study.

“My hope is that this actually helps assuage some of those concerns,” said Prather, who studies how behavioral factors affect the immune system. “In fact, those symptoms, though they may be unpleasant, may actually be working for you.”

The study was posted online last week. It has not been reviewed for publication in a scientific journal. But several experts said it was well done, and its results were consistent with those from other research.

The relative increase in antibody levels among those who experienced side effects was small and doesn’t mean that people without symptoms don’t muster a strong immune response, experts said.

“Lack of side effects should not be taken as a sign that the vaccine’s not working,” said Alessandro Sette, co-director of the La Jolla Institute of Immunology’s Center for Vaccine Innovation, who was not involved in the work.

An earlier study found that 98% of people who felt no ill effects still produced copious amounts of antibodies, compared with 99% of those who had localized symptoms or worse, Sette said.

Still, the new results suggest that people who have a rough time after vaccination are likely to be well protected from the virus. “If you’re feeling crappy, then odds are that you’re probably mounting a pretty reasonable immune response,” said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona who was not involved in the new study.

In research published last year, Bhattacharya and his colleagues looked at vaccine responses in 2,354 people, about half of whom took a painkiller to relieve side effects from the shot.

In mice, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, such as aspirin and ibuprofen, severely impair immune responses to the coronavirus. But Bhattacharya’s team found that in people, the medications did not mute the immune response to COVID vaccines.

Not only that, but those who took a painkiller seemed to have more antibodies than those who tolerated the symptoms without medication. The most likely explanation for that is not that the painkillers increase antibody levels, Bhattacharya said.

“It’s more that people who have symptoms tend to have a slightly greater antibody response than those who don’t, and of course the people who have symptoms are more likely to take painkillers,” he said.

Other studies have also found that people with self-reported side effects, including fever, chills, body aches and fatigue, had slightly more antibodies than those without the symptoms.

In the new study, Prather and his colleagues tracked people’s antibody levels over time. When the vaccines were introduced in December 2020, they scrambled to recruit study participants through ads placed in newspapers and on television and social media.

At the time, much of UCSF was still closed down, so they commandeered a Pilates studio in the university gym, moving equipment out of the way and bringing in phlebotomists to draw the participants’ blood. The scientists excluded anyone who had evidence of a coronavirus infection before or during the study.

“We knew we had this very finite period where people were rushing to get vaccinated,” Prather said. “It was just an intense time, but we had to do what we had to do.”

The team tracked symptoms among 363 participants who received the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID vaccines for six days after each dose, and gave some participants biometric devices to record their temperature, breathing and heart rate.

Those who had seven distinct side effects — including chills, tiredness, feeling unwell and headache — produced nearly double the levels of antibodies as those who reported no symptoms, the researchers found. And a change in skin temperature of just 1 degree Celsius predicted antibody levels three times higher six months after the second dose.

The study measured protection against the Wuhan variant, the original version of the coronavirus. The research would be difficult to perform now because people have already had multiple infections or shots that would influence their immune responses, Prather said.

The current COVID shots are designed to protect from the XBB.1.5 omicron subvariant, but the results should still be relevant to all iterations of the vaccines, experts said.

The rollout of COVID vaccines this fall has been bumpy, with canceled appointments and confusion about insurance coverage. But about 4 million Americans received the shots last month, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

3 Beginner-Friendly, At-Home Exercises To Blast Fat Over 40

She Finds

3 Beginner-Friendly, At-Home Exercises To Blast Fat Over 40

Mariam Qayum – October 6, 2023

As we age, staying fit and maintaining a healthy weight becomes increasingly important. Fat accumulation, especially around the midsection, can be a common concern for individuals over 40. Fortunately, there are effective ways to combat this issue. Whether you’re just starting your fitness journey or looking for new ways to stay active, these exercises can be a valuable addition to your routine, promoting not only fat loss but also overall well-being.

We spoke with Andrew White, certified personal trainer, who shared his insights on the three easy exercises that can be seamlessly incorporated into your home workout routine to help individuals over the age of 40 effectively tackle fat loss. According to White’s expertise, these workouts comprise squats, push-ups, and standing leg lifts. Read on to learn more.

Squats

Squats are a fantastic exercise that can be a powerful tool in your journey to blast fat. This simple yet highly effective movement engages multiple muscle groups, including your quadriceps, hamstrings, glutes, and even your core. By incorporating squats into your routine, you not only strengthen these essential muscle groups but also boost your metabolism, which is crucial for fat loss.

“Squats target the large muscle groups of the lower body, like the quads and glutes. As you engage these major muscles, your body burns more calories, aiding in fat loss. As we age, maintaining muscle mass becomes crucial, and squats help in preserving and building that essential muscle,” White says.

How to perform squats: White says to begin by standing with your feet shoulder-width apart. Keeping your chest up and back straight, bend your knees and push your hips back as if you are sitting in a chair. Lower down until your thighs are parallel with the ground, then push through your heels to return to the starting position.

Push-ups

Push-ups are a fantastic beginner-friendly, at-home exercise for individuals over 40 aiming to blast fat and enhance their overall fitness. This classic bodyweight exercise primarily targets the chest, shoulders, and triceps while engaging your core and stabilizing muscles.

White notes that “push-ups are fantastic for engaging the upper body and core muscles simultaneously. They target the chest, shoulders, and triceps while also challenging the abdominal muscles. This compound exercise promotes calorie burn and muscle strengthening, essential for metabolic health as we age.”

In order to effectively perform push-ups, White says to start in a plank position with your hands placed slightly wider than shoulder-width. Engage your core and keep a straight line from head to heels. Bend your elbows and lower your body towards the ground. Once your chest is just above the floor, push yourself back up to the starting position. If traditional push-ups are challenging initially, begin with knee push-ups.

Standing Leg Lifts

Standing leg lifts are a beginner-friendly, at-home exercise that can be a game-changer for those over 40. These simple yet effective leg lifts target your lower body, specifically the quadriceps, hamstrings, and glutes. They also engage your core muscles for stability, which is crucial for balance, especially as we age.

“This exercise targets the outer thighs and hips, strengthening and toning these areas. As a low-impact exercise, it’s excellent for those over 40 as it reduces strain on the joints while effectively engaging the muscles,” White states.

Follow these simple steps to effectively perform standing leg lifts: Stand straight next to a wall or chair for support. Keeping your leg straight, lift it out to the side as high as comfortably possible. Lower it back down slowly. Repeat on the other leg.

These exercises are easy to perform without any special equipment, making them an accessible choice for those looking to maintain or improve their fitness level from the comfort of their own home.

Forget squats and lunges—strengthen your body with this 20-minute knee-friendly workout

Fit & Well

Forget squats and lunges—strengthen your body with this 20-minute knee-friendly workout

Lois Mackenzie – October 6, 2023

Squats and lunges are a staple of many great workouts, but they aren’t gentle on the knees. If you’re looking to take some strain away from your lower-body joints, try this low-impact full-body routine instead. There’s not a squat or lunge in sight.

Certified personal trainer Roxanne Russell (Workout With Roxanne) leads you through each exercise via the follow-along video below. All you need to get started is a kettlebell and 20 minutes of free time.

You’ll be working for 60 seconds on a strength-based exercise, which is followed by 30 seconds of cardio and a 15-second break.

Pay close attention to Russell’s form during the workout, to help you hone your own technique (kettlebell swings can be hard to perfect) and don’t even think about skipping her thorough warm up.

Watch Roxanne Russell’s knee-friendly workout

Low-impact sessions place less strain on your joints, improving your fitness and strengthening your body without subjecting your knees, hips and ankles to the stresses of running and jumping.

This particular low-impact routine uses supersets, which means you perform one exercise straight after another with no rest in between. Russell has twinned strength-building exercises with cardio moves, which will help you build muscle and burn calories at the same time.

Burning calories with a sweaty cardio session is one way to create a calorie deficit for weight loss, if that’s your goal. But it’s worth bearing in mind that strength training can help with weight loss, too.

That’s because strength training helps you build muscle, which is a metabolically active tissue. This means that muscle (unlike fat) takes energy to maintain, so it burns more calories even when you’re resting.

How hot is too hot for humans? Local physician tells how climate change affects us

The Oak Ridger

How hot is too hot for humans? Local physician tells how climate change affects us

Carolyn Krause – October 6, 2023

As the Earth heats up owing to increased fossil fuel use and deforestation, Americans should be aware that heat waves are the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the country and that certain high temperature ranges can endanger our health and even the ability of our cellphones to work.

That was the message presented by Elaine Bunick, a retired endocrinologist who has traveled to Ghana, Haiti and other countries on medical mission trips. In her recent talk to Altrusa International of Oak Ridge, she presented extensive information on the effects of climate change on the environment, human health and healthcare facilities.

She provided advice on how to protect yourself from excessive heat. And she relayed predictions on impending health care worker shortages that likely made some audience members hot and bothered.

Physician Elaine Bunick, center, signed a book to be donated to the Oak Ridge Preschool.The title is National Geographic Kids’ “Little Kids First Big Book of Weather” by Karen de Seve. With her are Altrusa members Kari Iwanski, left, and Mary Jellison, right.

This summer in Oak Ridge, she said, residents experienced 33 days with temperatures greater than 90 degrees Fahrenheit. July was the hottest month. Bunick said people can expect to have to endure 20 to 30 more days a year of sizzling heat with peak temperatures over 90.

A check with Methodist Medical Center of Oak Ridge indicated that the emergency room reported more cardiac issues and interventions this year than in the past, but an increased death rate was not observed. Heat waves and air pollution from burning forests can cause heart problems.

Heat is greater risk for some

Bunick said people with chronic medical conditions, such as heart disease, respiratory disorders, diabetes, obesity and kidney ailments, have a greater risk for succumbing to heat illnesses.

“Medications such as antidepressants, beta blockers, calcium channel blockers, diuretics, antipsychotics and opioids alter your ability to handle the heat,” she added.

The increased heat, she said, will especially endanger the health of outdoor workers, such as farmers, police officers, firefighters, road workers, power line maintenance workers and transporters of supplies to stores and homes. The loss of labor hours, she added, will hurt the economy.

Others who are most susceptible to falling ill from excessive heat are persons older than 65, infants, children, pregnant women, people with pre-existing medical conditions and disabilities, athletes and people living in lower-income households or those who are homeless.

Take care of each other

“We have to be adaptable and protect each other to survive,” Bunick said. She cited statistics on the future of health care in the nation.

“The U.S. is predicted to have a shortage of 129,000 doctors and 200,000 nurse practitioners, physician assistants and technical personnel by 2034,” she said. “That’s scary. Our population has an increasing number of seniors – we’re almost 25% of the population. Who is going to care for us? We’re going to have to care for each other.”

Physician Elaine Bunick speaks on climate change and health to Altrusa International of Oak Ridge.

She noted that “in the early 2000s, the U.S. government put a cap on the number of doctors, nurses and physician assistants that can be trained. To this day they have not rescinded that order, so we have a growing shortage of trained medical staff. It takes 15 years to train a specialist like me and six years to train a nurse.”

The average temperature of the earth’s surface has been around 58 degrees Fahrenheit. This year, Bunick said, “the earth’s average surface temperature rose to 62.9 degrees and the oceans reached a peak of 69 degrees, almost the temperature of bath water. That was hottest ocean temperature ever recorded.”

Heat indexes, heat exhaustion and more

So, how hot is too hot? What are the dangerous temperatures and heat indexes for humans?

A normal adult body temperature, when taken orally, can range from 97.6 to 99.6 degrees Fahrenheit. According to Bunick, “The hottest air temperature for human survival is 123.8 degrees; beyond that you’re unlikely to survive. A body temperature over 108.14 degrees causes the body to become scrambled because the heat fries the proteins, denaturing them and causing dysfunction of enzymes and harm to the brain. Death can occur within six hours. Building heat tolerance and acclimatization takes about six weeks.”

According to one of her slides, a human body temperature of 103 to 104 degrees Fahrenheit can cause confusion and impaired judgment, and a temperature of 109 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit can cause brain damage, seizures, cardio-respiratory collapse, shock and death. The highest temperature recorded of a person surviving a heat stroke was 115.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

The heat index is a measure of the interaction of temperature and humidity. “Sweat cools the body by evaporation but if it’s too humid, you can’t add any more moisture to the air,” she said. A heat index of 95 degrees is considered the absolute limit of human tolerance above which the body cannot lose heat efficiently enough to maintain core temperature and avoid brain and organ damage within about six hours.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke are headache, nausea, dizziness, weakness, irritability, thirst, heavy sweating, elevated body temperature, confusion, altered mental status, slurred speech, loss of consciousness, profuse sweating, and seizures. Under these conditions, the body temperature is higher than 104 degrees Fahrenheit.

To protect yourself from heat exhaustion or heat stroke when you’re outdoors on hot days, the CDC recommends that you wear lightweight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing and a sun hat; take breaks to drink water and cool down in an air-conditioned or shady place; wear sunscreen and sunglasses when you’re outside; drink Gatorade or other drinks with electrolytes; avoid alcoholic beverages, splash yourself with water or use a cold, wet cloth to cool down and check your body temperature periodically.

To treat someone with heat exhaustion, move them to a cool area, give frequent sips of cool water, apply cold and wet compresses, remove unnecessary clothing, call 911 or take the individual to the ER for medical evaluation and treatment. If you and others are on a hike on a hot day, she warned, be sure you keep your cellphone cool and out of direct sunlight or a hot car (120 degrees). Between 96 and 109 degrees the battery will be so damaged that your phone will no longer allow you to make emergency calls.

Bunick noted that weather-related and climate-related events can threaten human health and safety in other ways. Wildfires and house fires can release cancer-causing and other irritating particles to the air, causing respiratory disease and heart issues. She advised checking on the EPA Air Quality Index (stay inside when the air is labeled Code Orange, Red, Purple or Maroon) and wearing N95 or KN95 masks if you must be outside when the air is unhealthy.

Wear insect repellant because ticks and mosquitoes migrating north as the climate warms carry Lyme disease, West Nile virus, dengue fever and malaria, according to one of her slides. Climate change can increase the probability that people get sick from disease-carrying organisms entering drinking water and from harmful algal blooms caused by algae and bacteria present in waters where people swim, causing eye irritation and respiratory illness especially in people with asthma.

“In 2022 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced there were 18 weather-related disasters costing over $1 billion each,” Bunick said.

Some of these disasters caused flooding, leading to drownings and homes destroyed by unhealthy mold. The disasters included heat waves, drought, flooding, hailstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes and winter storms. The death and destruction from these disasters cause mental health problems in victims.

Hospitals are preparing

Bunick said that administrators of hospitals, which use lots of electricity and produce 10% of U.S. greenhouse gases, as well as their healthcare workforce, are preparing for climate-related emergencies and extreme weather events that can disrupt operations, including hurricanes, floods and wildfires. Medicines in hospital pharmacies may be damaged by floods or by the heat, causing them to lose their potency. She gave an example close to home.

“Many hospitals keep their computers, medicines and other important supplies in the basement,” she said. “Recently, there was a water main break at Fort Sanders hospital in Knoxville. My son-in-law, who’s in charge of home infusion therapy at Fort Sanders, had to rush to save the medication in the hospital basement pharmacy from six inches of water!”

Global temperatures are off the charts for a reason: 4 factors driving 2023’s extreme heat and climate disasters

The Conversation

Global temperatures are off the charts for a reason: 4 factors driving 2023’s extreme heat and climate disasters

Michael Wysession, Professor of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis. October 6, 2023

2023's weather has been extreme in many ways. <a href= — 2023’s weather has been extreme in many ways. AP Photo/Michael Probst

Between the record-breaking global heat and extreme downpours, it’s hard to ignore that something unusual is going on with the weather in 2023.

People have been quick to blame climate change – and they’re right: Human-caused global warming does play the biggest role. For example, a study determined that the weekslong heat wave in Texas, the U.S. Southwest and Mexico that started in June 2023 would have been virtually impossible without it.

However, the extremes this year are sharper than anthropogenic global warming alone would be expected to cause. September temperatures were far above any previous September, and around 3.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.75 degrees Celsius) above the preindustrial average, according to the European Union’s earth observation program.

July was Earth’s hottest month on record, also by a large margin, with average global temperatures more than half a degree Fahrenheit (a third of a degree Celsius) above the previous record, set just a few years earlier in 2019.

September 2023’s temperatures were far above past Septembers. <a href= — September 2023’s temperatures were far above past Septembers. Copernicus

July 2023 was the hottest month on record and well above past Julys. <a href= — July 2023 was the hottest month on record and well above past Julys. Copernicus Climate Change ServiceMore

Human activities have been increasing temperatures at an average of about 0.2 F (0.1 C) per decade. But this year, three additional natural factors are also helping drive up global temperatures and fuel disasters: El Niño, solar fluctuations and a massive underwater volcanic eruption.

Unfortunately, these factors are combining in a way that is exacerbating global warming. Still worse, we can expect unusually high temperatures to continue, which means even more extreme weather in the near future.

An illustration by the author shows the typical relative impact on temperature rise driven by human activities compared with natural forces. El Niño/La Niña and solar energy cycles fluctuate. The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano’s underwater eruption exacerbated global warming. Michael Wysession

How El Niño is involved

El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs every few years when surface water in the tropical Pacific reverses direction and heats up. That warms the atmosphere above, which influences temperatures and weather patterns around the globe.

Essentially, the atmosphere borrows heat out of the Pacific, and global temperatures increase slightly. This happened in 2016, the time of the last strong El Niño. Global temperatures increased by about 0.25 F (0.14 C) on average, making 2016 the warmest year on record. A weak El Niño also occurred in 2019-2020, contributing to 2020 becoming the world’s second-warmest year.

El Niño’s opposite, La Niña, involves cooler-than-usual Pacific currents flowing westward, absorbing heat out of the atmosphere, which cools the globe. The world just came out of three straight years of La Niña, meaning we’re experiencing an even greater temperature swing.

Comparing global temperatures (top chart) with El Niño and La Niña events. <a href= — Comparing global temperatures (top chart) with El Niño and La Niña events. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Based on increasing Pacific sea surface temperatures in mid-2023, climate modeling now suggests a 90% chance that Earth is headed toward its first strong El Niño since 2016.

Combined with the steady human-induced warming, Earth may soon again be breaking its annual temperature records. June 2023 was the hottest in modern record. July saw global records for the hottest days and a large number of regional records, including an incomprehensible heat index of 152 F (67 C) in Iran.

Solar fluctuations

The Sun may seem to shine at a constant rate, but it is a seething, churning ball of plasma whose radiating energy changes over many different time scales.

The Sun is slowly heating up and in half a billion years will boil away Earth’s oceans. On human time scales, however, the Sun’s energy output varies only slightly, about 1 part in 1,000, over a repeating 11-year cycle. The peaks of this cycle are too small for us to notice at a daily level, but they affect Earth’s climate systems.

Rapid convection within the Sun both generates a strong magnetic field aligned with its spin axis and causes this field to fully flip and reverse every 11 years. This is what causes the 11-year cycle in emitted solar radiation.

Sunspot activity is considered a proxy for the Sun’s energy output. The last 11-year solar cycle was unusually weak. The current cycle isn’t yet at its maximum. <a href= — Sunspot activity is considered a proxy for the Sun’s energy output. The last 11-year solar cycle was unusually weak. The current cycle isn’t yet at its maximum. NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterMore

Earth’s temperature increase during a solar maximum, compared with average solar output, is only about 0.09 F (0.05 C), roughly a third of a large El Niño. The opposite happens during a solar minimum. However, unlike the variable and unpredictable El Niño changes, the 11-year solar cycle is comparatively regular, consistent and predictable.

The last solar cycle hit its minimum in 2020, reducing the effect of the modest 2020 El Niño. The current solar cycle has already surpassed the peak of the relatively weak previous cycle (which was in 2014) and will peak in 2025, with the Sun’s energy output increasing until then.

A massive volcanic eruption

Volcanic eruptions can also significantly affect global climates. They usually do this by lowering global temperatures when erupted sulfate aerosols shield and block a portion of incoming sunlight – but not always.

In an unusual twist, the largest volcanic eruption of the 21st century so far, the 2022 eruption of Tonga’s Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, is having a warming and not cooling effect.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano’s eruption was enormous, but underwater. It hurled large amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. <a href= — The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano’s eruption was enormous, but underwater. It hurled large amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens using GOES imagery courtesy of NOAA and NESDISMore

The eruption released an unusually small amount of cooling sulfate aerosols but an enormous amount of water vapor. The molten magma exploded underwater, vaporizing a huge volume of ocean water that erupted like a geyser high into the atmosphere.

Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, and the eruption may end up warming Earth’s surface by about 0.06 F (0.035 C), according to one estimate. Unlike the cooling sulfate aerosols, which are actually tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that fall out of the atmosphere within one to two years, water vapor is a gas that can stay in the atmosphere for many years. The warming impact of the Tonga volcano is expected to last for at least five years.

Underlying it all: Global warming

All of this comes on top of anthropogenic, or human-caused, global warming.

Humans have raised global average temperatures by about 2 F (1.1 C) since 1900 by releasing large volumes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is up 50%, primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels in vehicles and power plants. The warming from greenhouse gases is actually greater than 2 F (1.1 C), but it has been masked by other human factors that have a cooling effect, such as air pollution.

Sea surface temperatures in 2023 (bold black line) have been far above any temperature seen since satellite records began in the 1970s. <a href= — Sea surface temperatures in 2023 (bold black line) have been far above any temperature seen since satellite records began in the 1970s. University of Maine Climate Change Institute, CC BY-NDMore

If human impacts were the only factors, each successive year would set a new record as the hottest year ever, but that doesn’t happen. The year 2016 was the warmest in part because temperatures were boosted by the last large El Niño.

What does this mean for the future?

The next couple of years could be very rough.

If a strong El Niño develops over the coming months as forecasters expect, combined with the solar maximum and the effects of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, Earth’s temperatures will likely continue to soar.

As temperatures continue to increase, weather events can get more extreme. The excess heat can mean more heat waves, forest fires, flash floods and other extreme weather events, climate models show.

A heavy downpour flooded streets across the New York City region, shutting down subways, schools and businesses on Sept. 29, 2023. <a href= — A heavy downpour flooded streets across the New York City region, shutting down subways, schools and businesses on Sept. 29, 2023. AP Photo/Jake OffenhartzMore

In January 2023, scientists wrote that Earth’s temperature had a greater than 50% chance of reaching 2.7 F (1.5 C) above preindustrial era temperatures by the year 2028, at least temporarily, increasing the risk of triggering climate tipping points with even greater human impacts. Because of the unfortunate timing of several parts of the climate system, it seems the odds are not in our favor.

This article, originally published July 27, 2023, has been updated with September’s record heat.

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Michael Wysession does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.