NBC News

After 100 days of war, Ukraine is more resolved than ever to take its land back from Russia

Lauren Egan – June 3, 2022

KHARKIV, Ukraine — As Russia’s invasion grinds into its 100th day with no clear end in sight, Ukrainians seem more determined than ever to take back every lost inch of their battered land.

From officials in Kyiv to residents in Kharkiv, the message is clear: The country will not accept concessions of territory in order to reach a peace agreement with its invading neighbor.

In conversations with people around the Kharkiv region, just miles from the Russian border, many expressed frustration and anger at recent suggestions that their country should consider giving up some territory currently under occupation in order to achieve a cease-fire agreement that might avert a bloody war of attrition that could drag on for another 100 days — or longer.

The Kremlin’s forces are advancing in the east and now control 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, according to President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, while his Western allies have shown signs of wavering in their support.

Yet, Ukrainian public opinion illustrates just how challenging it could be to reach an acceptable diplomatic resolution with Russia.

“Of course, we want peace, but we also want our territories back,” said Anna Ockmanko, 57, whose house in a small village outside of Kharkiv was destroyed when the Russian forces invaded. “If not, then what are we suffering for?”

Olena Ruban, 53, said that conceding territory in exchange for peace “should not even be a discussion.”

“We will fight to the end. I will pick up a gun and fight myself if I need to,” she said, as she worked to clean up her house that was damaged when Russian forces occupied the region. Ukrainian troops pushed them out last month in a successful counterattack outside the country’s second-largest city of Kharkiv.

“I understand even more clearly now that compromise is not an option,” she said. “We still believe in victory.”

As the death toll increases, oil prices skyrocket and fears mount of a global food shortage, some Western officials have recently suggested that Ukraine should consider giving up land to Russia in exchange for peace.

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said Kyiv should accept ceding territory to bring an end to the invasion, while Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi called for a cease-fire in Ukraine “as soon as possible.” The New York Times’ editorial board argued in a recent piece that Ukraine would have to confront “painful territorial decisions.”

Ukrainian officials have slammed the idea.

Zelenskyy compared the suggestion to the 1938 Munich Pact — a failed European attempt to appease Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler by giving up territory in Czechoslovakia.

In a video address posted online, Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Zelenskyy, said that “no one is going to trade a gram of our sovereignty or a millimeter of our territory.”

“Our children are dying, soldiers are being blown apart by shells, and they tell us to sacrifice territory. Get lost. It’s never going to happen,” he said.

Since the war started Feb. 24, Ukrainian forces have successfully pushed Russia out of territory around the capital city of Kyiv, as well as Kharkiv in the northeast. But Russia controls the strategically important cities of Kherson and Mariupol in the south, and is gaining ground in the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, which together make up the Donbas region. Moscow may not be far off creating a much-desired land corridor to Crimea, which it invaded and annexed in 2014.

Zelenskyy has acknowledged that the war will only end through a diplomatic solution rather than a military victory. In a television address last month, he said the war “will be bloody, there will be fighting, but it will only definitively end through diplomacy.”

But peace negotiations have stalled, and Ukrainian public opinion could continue to harden as new allegations of Russian atrocities are uncovered.

A recent poll from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 82 percent of Ukrainian adults believe that “no territorial concessions should be allowed” in order to reach a peace agreement, compared to 10 percent who thought some territorial concessions should be made.

“Russia wants to establish control of all of Ukraine, and Ukrainians do not want this,” said Anton Grushetskyi, the deputy director of the institute. “When some politicians, experts in the West try to put pressure on Ukraine in this very complicated situation to concede some territory, they should understand that’s just not the real intentions of the population.”

The Kremlin seems determined to exert long-term control over areas it has seized, but Zelenskyy has said that any peace agreement would require Russia pulling back to its pre-invasion positions.

Some Ukrainians say that’s not enough.

Olena, 59, who asked not to use her last name out of fear that Russian troops could identify her son who is serving in the Ukrainian military, said that Russia’s brief occupation of her town changed how she felt about Crimea and other parts of the country’s east that have been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 2014. Any peace agreement should include those territories, she said.

“We think about the people who’ve been living under occupation for eight years. We’re crying for them,” she said. “I feel guilty that we didn’t do more earlier on, but now having lived under occupation for just one month, I understand so much better now what they are going through — the exhaustion, the fear.”

Serhii, 55, who also asked not to use his last name out of concern that Russian troops could return to the region and identify him, said that Ukrainians were clear eyed about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan “to conquer all of Ukraine.”

“The only option is to get everything back,” he said. “But we also need to accept that it might not happen soon.”

Associated Press

In Ukraine, broken lives in a broken house, just one of many

Oleksandr Stashevskyi and Natacha Pisarenko – June 2, 2022

POTASHNYA, Ukraine (AP) — In 100 days of war in Ukraine, countless lives have been forever shattered, ripped apart, upended. For tens of thousands, life has been brutally ended. Those who have survived sometimes barely know how to begin picking up the pieces.

When a house symbolizing a lifetime of labor and memories is destroyed, how does one rebuild?

Nila Zelinska and her husband, Eduard, returned for the first time this week what used to be their home in a village outside Kyiv. It was in ruins, reduced to charred walls with no roof by shelling in the days after Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.

“Rex! Rex!” she yelled, calling for the black Labrador they’d been forced to leave behind. Only later did the faithful hound finally reappear, tail wagging under its owner’s loving caresses.

But Rex aside, nothing was as it had been.

Instead of a home, their broken house is now a symbol of their broken lives.

Nila Zelinska recalled the terror of the bombardments that forced them to leave. They scooped up her 82-year-old mother and then escape the flames and explosions by fleeing with her through their garden.

“Everything was on fire,” she said. ”I didn’t think I could get her out of there, because she is very old. But we grabbed her by the arms and began to run.”

Much of what happened next is a hazy memory. The family evacuated westward, well away from the fighting that engulfed the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital and other cities to the north and east.

Repelled by Ukrainian defenders from capturing Kyiv, Russia has since redirected its troops and concentrated its attacks on the eastern industrial Donbas region, where the fighting is still fierce.

Reaching the 100-day milestone of war is both a tragedy for Ukraine but also an indication of how fiercely it has resisted: Some analysts thought its troops might quickly crumble against Russia’s larger and better-equipped military.

Nila Zelinska sobbed in the ruins of her home when she and her husband returned to their village, Potashnya. From the rubble, she recovered a doll that belonged to one of her grandchildren. She held it tightly, as though it was a real child.

Her husband gingerly picked his way through the piles of bricks and shattered glass.

“There is no place to live. If there was housing, we would return and plant a garden for ourselves, as we always did,” she said. “We had a garden here. Potatoes, cucumbers and tomatoes grew here. Everything was from the garden.”

Neither of them know right now what the future holds, but Nila knows what she wants.

“May there be peace on earth, peace so that our people are not suffering so much,” she said.

USA Today

German leader says Russian economy is collapsing; Putin fires 5 more generals: Live Ukraine updates

John Bacon, USA TODAY – June 2, 2022

Russia’s economy is falling apart and “time is working against Russia” and its president, Vladimir Putin, a top German official said Thursday.

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck made the remarks the same day Russian officials revealed that five more generals had been fired.

Since invading Ukraine more than three months ago, Russia has secured modest gains in its battle for control of the eastern Donbas region. Income from energy sales to Europe has played a major role in funding Russia’s war, and Habeck acknowledged that Russia has been aided by historically high energy prices and Europe’s inability to completely halt purchases.

“We can only be ashamed that we haven’t yet managed to reduce this dependence more significantly,” said Habeck, who is also Germany’s economy minister. But he added that “Putin is still getting money, but he can hardly spend it” because of Western sanctions.

“Time is not working for Russia. It is working against Russia, it is working against the Russian economy,” he said. “No one wants to invest in Russia any more.”

Major developments:

►Ukraine’s soccer team won at Scotland, setting up a fixture against Wales for a spot in the World Cup tournament that begins Nov. 21 in Qatar.

►Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said Thursday that he expects Denmark to join the European Union’s common defense on July 1. In a referendum on Wednesday, two-thirds of voters opted to abandon a 30-year-old waiver that kept the NATO member from full participation.

►Britain says it will send sophisticated medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine. The U.S. and Germany made similar pledges this week.

Putin fires 5 more generals

Russian President Vladimir Putin has fired five generals and a police colonel in what state-run media outlet Pravda described as “a standard employee reshuffle procedure.” All six had been assigned to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which is responsible for law enforcement across the nation of 145 million people.

Putin has fired several high-ranking military members amid the mixed results his troops have seen. Lt. Gen. Serhiy Kisel, a leader of the Russian Army’s failed effort to capture the northeastern city of Kharkiv was dismissed, as was Vice Adm. Igor Osipov, who led Russia’s Black Sea fleet when Ukrainian forces sank its flagship, the Moskva.

Lawmaker: Ukraine cities could vote on joining Russia this summer

Referendums to join Russia are likely to be organized this summer in the separatist Ukrainian territories of Donetsk and Luhansk along with the occupied cities of Kherson Zaporozhye, a high-ranking Russian lawmaker said Thursday. Leonid Slutsky, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and chairman of the Russian Duma’s Committee on International Affairs said it is “no secret that there is such sentiment in Donbas and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.”

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said such referendums would require “the will and the desire of the people living there” along with other conditions.

Russia gains in Luhansk, but struggles loom

Russian troops are making steady gains in separatist Luhansk Oblast, enabled by a heavy concentration of artillery, the British Ministry of Defense said Thursday. But the assessment adds that those gains “have not been without cost,” citing losses sustained by Russian forces.

Crossing the Siversky Donets River is vital for Russian forces as they secure Luhansk and switch focus to Donetsk Oblast, the assessment says. Potential crossing sites remain controlled by Ukrainian forces that have destroyed existing bridges.

“It is likely Russia will need at least a short tactical pause to re-set for opposed river crossings,” the assessment says. “To do so risks losing some of the momentum they have built over the last week.”

Impact of long-range rockets on war unclear

President Joe Biden’s decision to provide Ukraine with longer-range precision rockets unleashed angst in Moscow and applause in Kyiv. But it’s not clear yet how much of a difference the advanced weapons will make in what has become a stalemate with no clear end game. It also remains to be seen how Russia will respond to the U.S. move. As the U.S. has ramped up the flow of American-made weapons to Ukraine, the Kremlin has increasingly tried to frame its invasion of Ukraine as a proxy war between Washington and Moscow, although Biden has repeatedly said he would not send American troops to fight in the conflict.

“The Biden administration argues this most recent military aid package will help Kyiv target Russian artillery behind the front and give the Ukrainians more leverage when or if negotiations resume,” said Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank that advocates for military restraint. “Unfortunately, no negotiations are on the horizon.” Read more here.

– Tom Vanden Brook, Maureen Groppe and Deirdre Shesgreen

Contributing: The Associated Press

Reuters

Time is running out for Russia, German economy minister says

June 2, 2022

BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany must work harder to reduce its energy-dependence on Russia but Western sanctions in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine are still taking a heavy toll on the Russian war machine, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Thursday.

“The Russian economy is collapsing,” Habeck told lawmakers, adding that Germany had played its part here by reducing exports to Russia in March by 60%, with an even sharper fall expected in April.

Across the allied countries participating in the sanctions, exports to Russia fell by 53% over previous months, while the drop among neutral or pro-Russian states was 45%, according to the minister.

“Putin is still getting money but … time is not working for Russia, it is working against Russia,” he said.

As a result of the sanctions, Moscow had lost access to parts crucial to its ability to fight the war, Habeck said, such as “security updates for airplanes, with the result that the planes will soon be grounded”.

(Reporting by Rachel More; Editing by Madeline Chambers and Maria Sheahan)Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting.

Related: Bloomberg

Sanctions Will Break Russia’s Economy in the End, Germany Says

Iain Rogers – June 2, 2022

(Bloomberg) — Russia’s economy has been dealt a severe blow by international sanctions imposed following the invasion of Ukraine and that damage will become increasingly clear, according to Germany’s vice chancellor.

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The revenue Russia receives from commodities like oil and gas is “painful,” Robert Habeck, who is also the economy minister, said Thursday in a speech to parliament. But that doesn’t accurately reflect the pressure President Vladimir Putin is under because the country can “barely spend any of it,” he said.

Habeck said that a shortage of software security updates for aircraft will soon lead to planes being grounded while a lack of high-tech equipment will “lead to production processes being destroyed.”

“He can’t keep going much longer,” Habeck told lawmakers in the Bundestag in Berlin. “Time is not working in favor of Russia, it’s working against Russia, it’s working against the Russian economy.”

Even with Germany and other countries halting or phasing out Russian energy imports, Moscow’s oil-and-gas revenue will be about $285 billion this year, up by more than a fifth compared with 2021, according to estimates from Bloomberg Economics based on Economy Ministry projections. Including other commodities, it more than makes up for the $300 billion in foreign reserves frozen by sanctions.

With the war in Ukraine now into a fourth month, there is little evidence that sanctions are forcing Putin to abandon his military campaign.

“We’re not doing this for fun,” Habeck told lawmakers. “We’re doing it to hurt Putin’s economy and make our economic policy contribution to bringing an end to this war at some point. We’re looking to cut the Russian economy to the quick.”

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Yahoo! News

U.K. to send rocket systems to Ukraine after report that Boris Johnson sought U.S. approval

Niamh Cavanagh, Producer – June 2, 2022

LONDON — The U.K. is set to send multiple launch rocket systems to the Ukrainian military in a bid to help counter Russia’s brutal attacks.

According to a statement by the British Foreign Office, reports CNN, the U.K. will provide Ukraine with M270 launchers, which can strike targets over 49 miles away. The advanced medium-range rocket systems will offer “a significant boost in capability for the Ukrainian forces.”

Ukrainian soldiers will be trained in the U.K. on how to use the weapons system.

Ben Wallace, Britain’s defense secretary, said Wednesday: “The U.K. stands with Ukraine and has taken a leading role in supplying its heroic troops with the vital weapons they need to defend their country.

As Russia’s “tactics change, so must our support to Ukraine,” he added. “These highly capable multiple launch rocket systems will enable our Ukrainian friends to better protect themselves against Russia’s brutal use of long-range artillery, which [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s forces have used indiscriminately to flatten cities.”

The gift was “coordinated closely” with the U.S., the report said.

The weapons package comes as Russia’s war against its smaller neighbor has transformed into a city-by-city grind in Ukraine’s eastern region. Artillery has become a dominant weapon for both sides, and the range of more advanced rocket systems is a key advantage.

The U.K. reportedly asked the Biden administration to sign off on a plan to send the American-made launchers to Ukraine. According to a source cited by Politico, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke with President Biden about transferring the weapons.

Meanwhile, Washington confirmed that it would send similar advanced weapons as part of a new $700 million military assistance package for Ukraine. The package includes High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition, the Defense Department said.

As part of the announcement, Ukraine promised the Biden administration that it would not use those rocket systems to hit targets located inside Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Kyiv had “given us assurances that they will not use these systems against targets on Russian territory.”

The Kremlin said that the weapons would discourage Ukraine from rejoining peace talks that have been stalled. “We believe that the United States is purposefully and diligently adding fuel to the fire,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that the assistance would risk a “third country” being drawn into the war.

The New York Times

What Are ‘Artillery Rockets,’ and Why Is the U.S. Sending Them to Ukraine?

John Ismay – June 2, 2022

As the fighting in eastern Ukraine turns into an artillery duel, the Pentagon announced that it would send its most advanced artillery rocket launcher and munitions to the Ukrainian military in the hope of giving it an edge over Russia.

Here’s how the system works, and what it could potentially do, as the war stretches into a fourth month.

What is an artillery rocket?

An artillery rocket is a weapon that is typically propelled by a solid-fuel motor and can carry a variety of warheads. During the Cold War, most artillery rockets were unguided and imprecise when fired at greater distances.

In the 1970s, the United States invested in a new weapon it called MLRS, for Multiple Launch Rocket System, designed for use in the event that Russian armored vehicles massed for World War III on the border of Western Europe.

The M270 MLRS launcher was an armored vehicle that could carry two “pods” of munitions. Each pod held either six cluster-weapon rockets that could fly about 20 miles, or a single, larger guided missile, called ATACMS, for Army Tactical Missile System, that could fly about 100.

The 23-ton launcher moved on treads, at speeds up to 40 mph.

Years later, the Pentagon introduced a more easily transportable version called HIMARS, for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, which is based on a wheeled truck that is much lighter. Unlike its predecessor, the M142 HIMARS truck carries only one pod of munitions, but it can move much faster on and off-road, and can be shipped on a C-130 cargo plane.

Has the United States used these weapons?

Yes. During Operation Desert Storm, government records show that the U.S. Army fired more than 17,200 unguided MLRS rockets and 32 of the larger ATACMS guided missiles at Iraqi forces. The submunitions carried by those rockets had a high failure rate, and the duds left behind killed and wounded many U.S. troops.

In 2005, the Army fired a new guided rocket, known as a GMLRS, in combat in Iraq for the first time. That rocket has a range of more than 40 miles, more than twice that of the older rockets, and its navigation is aided by GPS signals.

Since the invasion, the Pentagon has provided Ukraine with 108 M777 howitzers, the most lethal weapons the West has delivered so far. But the range of the GMLRS is more than twice that of the 155 mm shells fired by howitzers.

The Pentagon has spent approximately $5.4 billion to buy more than 42,000 of the GMLRS since 1998, according to a report published by the Congressional Research Service last year, and commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan used them frequently.

What’s the difference between a rocket and a missile in this context?

The nomenclature can be confusing sometimes, but generally the word “rocket” is used in a military context to refer to relatively inexpensive unguided weapons powered by solid-fuel motors, while “missile” is generally shorthand for “guided missiles,” more expensive and complicated weapons that use movable fins to steer themselves to their targets and can fly much farther.

The Pentagon has already sent short-range, inexpensive and unguided anti-tank weapons that are classified as rockets to Ukraine, like the AT-4, and the longer-range Javelin, which is a guided missile.

That delineation worked well in the past with the MLRS and ATACMS weapons, but in more recent years the military has built weapons it calls “guided rockets” — like GMLRS — which are often older rocket designs upgraded to have guidance systems and movable fins on their nose to steer them.

The money part still holds true, though. GMLRS rockets remain far less expensive than the old ATACMS and the Precision Strike Missiles being developed to replace them.

How powerful are these rockets?

Using the HIMARS and GMLRS together can offer an amount of firepower that is similar to an airstrike — all from a mobile platform.

The upgrade in explosive power for the Ukrainian military will be profound. The warhead in each M31 GMLRS rocket contains a single charge of about 200 pounds of high explosives, while the 155 mm shells fired by howitzers contain about 18 pounds.

Howitzers like the M777 can fire at a rate of about two to three rounds per minute. The GMLRS rockets can be fired singly or in a ripple of all six in just seconds, rivaling the power of an airstrike dropping guided bombs.

Does Russia have anything similar?

The Russian military has primarily used three types of unguided artillery rockets during the war in Ukraine.

The largest, the 300 mm Smerch, can fire a guided rocket, which makes it more accurate, and has a range similar to the GMLRS, although few have been seen in photos of the war. Most Smerch launches in Ukraine are unguided rockets, many containing cluster weapon warheads.

Do the U.S. rockets have other advantages?

There’s one major advantage to the MLRS and HIMARS launchers: They can be fully reloaded within minutes.

Both vehicles have a winch that allows them to lower an empty pod to the ground, pick up a new, loaded pod, and pull it into place. The Russian launchers must be manually loaded, tube by tube.

Why hasn’t the U.S. sent longer-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine?

President Joe Biden said in an essay published Tuesday in The New York Times that the White House was “not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders.”

While reporting on the war, a senior defense official who served in field artillery and was not authorized to speak publicly about Pentagon war planning, told me that the Army has comparatively few ATACMS missiles remaining in its inventory, and those that it does have are earmarked for use in dire contingencies like a war with North Korea or an effort to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion.

Sometimes, though, the U.S. Army launches an ATACMS missile to send a message, as it did just more than a week ago during military exercises with South Korea, after North Korea had tested a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile.

Business Insider

Russian troops control about a fifth of Ukraine after nearly 100 days of war, Zelenskyy says

Jake Epstein – June 2, 2022

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russian troops control about a fifth of Ukraine.

In an address to the Luxembourgish parliament, Zelenskyy said Russia controls about 125,000 square kilometers.

Fighting has been concentrated in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region for weeks now.

After 99 days of war, Russian forces now control about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday.

In an address to the Luxembourgish parliament, Zelenskyy said about “20 percent of our territory is under the control of the occupiers,” or around 125,000 square kilometers — an area larger than Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands combined.

Russia’s occupation includes a stretch of land that goes as north and east as Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv, and as south as Mykolaiv. Zelenskyy said the war’s frontline, where “constant fighting” takes place, stretches for about 1,000 kilometers.

The occupied area Zelenskyy referred to also includes the Crimean region, which Russian forces invaded and annexed in 2014.

Major Russian advances in the first few weeks of the war — including a failed attempt to seize the capital city Kyiv — were answered with strong counter-resistance as Ukrainian forces slowly reclaimed the territory it lost.

Russia’s retreat revealed grisly scenes of civilian life under occupation, including evidence of mass executions and torture of innocent bystanders.

Fighting is now concentrated in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, where Russia has bombarded Ukrainian cities and attacked civilian areas as President Vladimir Putin’s troops try to progress deeper into Ukraine.

“The Russian army has already destroyed almost the entire Donbas,” Zelenskyy said, “city after city.”

But Zelenskyy recently vowed that Ukraine won’t cede any of its territory to Russia, and said there won’t be peace until Putin agrees to return areas seized by Russia back to 2014 — like the annexed Crimean peninsula or the Moscow-backed separatist-controlled regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Despite fighting being concentrated in eastern Ukraine, the impact of the war continues to be felt across the country. Zelenskyy said Ukraine “suffers” from Russian air strikes every day — weathering thousands of missiles since the war began in late February.

There are also about 300,000 square kilometers “bestrewn with mines and unexploded ordnance,” he added.

Reuters

Putin clings to semblance of normality as his war grinds on

Mark Trevelyan – June 2, 2022

* Kremlin leader projects image of business as usual

* No sign that Putin seeks exit from war he started

* Russia builds momentum in Donbas but U.S. steps up arms to Kyiv

* Putin may hope for growing splits and war fatigue in West

By Mark Trevelyan

LONDON, June 2 (Reuters) – Approaching the 100-day mark in a war that he refuses to call by its name, Russian President Vladimir Putin is a man intent on conveying the impression of business as usual.

As his army fought its way into the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk this week, Putin was making awkward small talk in a televised ceremony to honour parents of exceptionally large families.

Since the start of May, he has met – mostly online – with educators, oil and transport bosses, officials responsible for tackling forest fires, and the heads of at least a dozen Russian regions, many of them thousands of miles from Ukraine.

Along with several sessions of his Security Council and a series of calls with foreign leaders, he found time for a video address to players, trainers and spectators of the All-Russian Night Hockey League.

The appearance of solid, even boring routine is consistent with the Kremlin’s narrative that it is not fighting a war – merely waging a “special military operation” to bring a troublesome neighbour to heel.

For a man whose army has heavily underperformed in Ukraine and been beaten back from its two biggest cities, suffering untold thousands of casualties, Putin shows no visible sign of stress.

In contrast with the run-up to the Feb. 24 invasion, when he denounced Ukraine and the West in bitter, angry speeches, his rhetoric is restrained. The 69-year-old appears calm, focused and fully in command of data and details.

While acknowledging the impact of Western sanctions, he tells Russians their economy will emerge stronger and more self-sufficient, while the West will suffer a boomerang effect from spiralling food and fuel prices.

KEEPING UP APPEARANCES

But as the war grinds on with no end in sight, Putin faces an increasing challenge to maintain the semblance of normality.

Economically, the situation will worsen as sanctions bite harder and Russia heads towards recession.

Militarily, Putin’s forces have gradually advanced in eastern Ukraine but the United States and its allies are stepping up arms supplies to Kyiv, including a U.S. promise this week of advanced rocket systems.

Should Russia’s offensive falter, Putin could be forced into declaring a full-scale mobilisation of reserves to bolster his depleted forces, Western defence experts say.

“This would involve more than a million people in Russia, and then of course it will be visible for those whose who have not yet realised that Russia is in a full war,” said Gerhard Mangott, an Austrian academic who has met and observed Putin over many years.

That would be a hard sell to a Russian public which is mainly reliant on state media loyal to the Kremlin and has therefore been kept in ignorance of the scale of Russian setbacks and casualties.

Yet Russia is still not at that point, Mangott said, and Putin may draw some encouragement from signs of Western fatigue with the war. Divisions are emerging between Ukraine’s most hawkish backers – the United States, Britain, Poland and the Baltic states – and a group of countries including Italy, France and Germany which are pressing to bring an end to the war.

“Putin is counting that the longer this war drags on, the more conflicts and frictions within the Western camp will appear,” he said.

Meanwhile peace talks with Ukraine stalled weeks ago, and Putin shows absolutely no sign of seeking a diplomatic exit. “He still thinks there is a good military solution to this problem,” said Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia at Crisis Group.

Putin preserves the option to claim victory at any point because his stated objectives – what he called the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine – “were always goals that you could declare accomplished because they were never clearly defined and were always somewhat ridiculous”, Oliker said.

The words “war” and “Ukraine” were never spoken during Putin’s 40-minute video encounter on Wednesday with the prolific families, including Vadim and Larisa Kadzayev with their 15 children from Beslan in the North Caucausus region.

The closest he came to acknowledging the war was in a pair of references to the plight of children in Donbas and the “extraordinary situation” there.

Russia had many problems but that was always the case, he said as he wrapped up the online meeting. “Nothing unusual is actually happening here.” (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Nick Macfie)