Drought worsens in Southern California, with Ventura County in worst category

Drought worsens in Southern California, with Ventura County in worst category

Ojai, Calif. -- Tuesday, June 22, 2021: Aerial view of Lake Casitas near Ojai, Calif., on June 22, 2021. (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)
An aerial view of Lake Casitas near Ojai in Ventura County shows a receding waterline on June 22. (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

 

As sweltering drought conditions continue to worsen throughout California, Ventura and other Southern California counties have shifted from “extreme” to “exceptional” drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

Along with Ventura County, northwest Los Angeles County, most of Kern County and the eastern portion of San Bernardino County are also in the federal report’s highest range, signifying “exceptional drought.” Almost all of California is facing detrimental drought conditions, with 50 of the state’s 58 counties under a state of emergency amid excessive drought conditions.

In Ventura County, Calleguas Municipal Water District officials have declared a water shortage, continuing their call to residents to conserve water.

“The board’s action urges residents, businesses and agencies in Metropolitan’s 5,200-square-mile service area to lower the region’s water demand to stave off more severe actions in the future, which could include restricting water supplies to Metropolitan’s 26 member agencies,” officials said in a statement Tuesday.

Officials at the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which supplies imported water to Calleguas Municipal Water District, said the state’s water supply has been “increasingly stressed by the extreme drought.”

Last week, the MWD issued a supply alert, calling on all of Southern California to conserve water amid the continued drought, a move that brings the state’s largest population center closer to tough water restrictions that have been imposed on communities elsewhere.

The alert came one day after U.S. officials declared the first-ever water shortage on the Colorado River, a key source of water for the region and one that supplies the Calleguas Municipal Water District, which serves approximately 75% of Ventura County.

In a statement released by MWD, board member Gloria D. Gray said the water management district has needed to begin tapping into its stored reservoirs, and continued to urge residents to conserve water.

“We don’t know what next year will bring. We must all find ways we can save even more so we have the water we need if this drought continues,” Gray said.

Last month, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office called for all California residents to voluntarily reduce their water consumption by at least 15%.

Metropolitan General Manager Adel Hagekhalil echoed Newsom’s call to residents to save water, stressing the need for California to come together to solve its water crisis.

“We are working with the governor’s office and water agencies throughout California to maximize available supplies,” Hagekhalil said. “We encourage Southern California to step up again, just as we have in the past, to do our part to reduce our region’s water use.”

Climate change made catastrophic flood more likely, study finds

Climate change made catastrophic flood more likely, study finds

 

One of the worst disasters in a summer full of extreme weather events — the Western European flooding in July — was made significantly more likely and more intense due to the impact of human-caused climate change, new research shows. More than 200 people lost their lives when rivers overflowed and roared through towns in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, washing away structures that had been standing for hundreds of years.

A Belgian government minister described the flood as “one of the greatest natural disasters our country has ever known.” As much as two months’ worth of rainfall fell in just two days, with some locations picking up nearly 8 inches.

The new study from a team of international scientists at World Weather Attribution has found that the European flooding event — even in today’s heated climate — would only be expected to occur once every 400 years in that part of the world. The study also found that the flood event was between 1.2 times and 9 times more likely than it would have been without climate change, and our warmer climate made it up to 19% more intense.

And the researchers warn, “these changes will continue in a rapidly warming climate.”

Rainfall totals from the mid-July European flood event in millimeters. / Credit: World Weather Attribution
Rainfall totals from the mid-July European flood event in millimeters. / Credit: World Weather Attribution

 

The factors the study takes into account involve fairly straightforward science. For instance, it’s well understood that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and dump more rain. The relationship is simple: for every 2 degrees Fahrenheit increase in global temperature, atmospheric water vapor increases by 8%.

In addition, the attribution study uses climate models to analyze local effects like the impact on convection (downpours) due to a warmer atmosphere. The study can then use computer modeling to compare heavy precipitation in today’s heated atmosphere with what they call a counter-factual world — one with cooler, pre-industrial-level temperatures. The difference between the heated and not-heated world tells scientists how impactful climate change has become.

While these numbers are impressive in their own right, they don’t tell the whole story. That’s because assessments like these focus on statistical and climate model analysis, which do not take into account the climate change impact on large scale weather patterns, like atmospheric steering currents known as the jet stream.

Climate change and the jet stream

The jet stream is a narrow river of air in the upper atmosphere which is responsible for steering storms around the globe and also separating cold air masses from warm air masses. In the case of the European floods there’s no debate that a very abnormal jet stream was a significant factor.

The jet stream at the time, from July 12 to 15, was so elongated, wavy and unstable that a piece of it broke off, forming what is called a cut-off low. These type of lows move very slowly, often dumping heavy precipitation over the same areas for a prolonged period of time.

You often hear us talk about the wavy jet stream. Here’s a good illustration of how this manifests in extreme weather, connecting the Europe flooding to the Heat Dome in the US West. Some scientists have found a connection between climate change and a more amp’d – wavy jet 1/…. pic.twitter.com/4rEZNHL3mg

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 17, 2021

Cut-off lows like the one in Europe can and do happen naturally. But they are made more likely when the jet stream is slower and more wavy. Many climate scientists believe that a warmer climate is indeed making the jet stream slower.

In 2018, Penn State climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann published a paper about changes in persistent extreme summer weather events, coining the rather technical term quasi-resonant amplification (QRA), which refers to large scale weather patterns that are more likely to be semi-stationary due to a warmer climate.

In an email to CBS News, Mann says although he doesn’t see evidence that QRA contributed to this flood event, “There’s no question that the overall slowing down of the summer jet stream did play a role.”

Mann calls attribution studies like this one “extremely conservative” and says that since its modeling doesn’t appear to have taken this factor into account, “it is likely understating the role climate change likely played here.”

Why was the impact of warming on the jet stream not included in the World Weather Attribution analysis? Simply put, jet stream dynamics are extremely complicated and hard to replicate in climate models. The jet stream also exhibits tremendous day-to-day and year-to-year variability in terms of its location, speed and degree of waviness. This makes determining the impact of climate change on the jet stream extremely challenging, especially for a rapid study like this.

The extent to which climate change is causing the jet stream is become slower and more “wavy” is one of the hottest debates in the climate community. There’s one camp of scientists who buy into a concept called the wavy jet stream — the idea that because the temperature contrast from the poles to the tropics is lessening, the jet stream slows down and becomes more meandering and curvy. There’s another camp, just as big, who disagree.

Although there is still no clear winner in this climate debate yet, there is one study, coincidentally published just two weeks before the European floods, which seems to be especially applicable. In their research, the authors not only take into account changing rain rates due to increased moisture and convection, but also the change in steering currents in the atmosphere.

Using extremely high resolution climate simulations, the authors were able to show that a future increase in precipitation extremes across Europe happens not only because of more moisture, but also due to slower storm movement of storms, which increases their duration in a given location. What they describe bears a striking resemblance to what happen in mid-July.

“Our results suggest such slow-moving storms may be 14x more frequent across land [in Europe] by the end of the century,” the study concludes. The authors say the main reason seems to be a reduced temperature difference between the poles and tropics, which weakens upper-level winds, especially in the fall.

But this impact of a slower, more amplified jet stream reverberates all around the globe. This past weekend in the U.S., record-breaking rainfall occurred both near the path of Henri in the New York City area and to a much larger degree in western Tennessee, where more than 17 inches of rain fell in 24 hours — a new state record.

Following a weekend of record-breaking rain after #Henri made landfall, @WeatherProf breaks down how climate change is intensifying these naturally occurring weather patterns. pic.twitter.com/iDNtam1OA8

— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) August 23, 2021

The Tennessee flooding, which claimed at least 22 lives, was not caused by a large weather system. Rather, it was caused by a very narrow band of heavy rain which got stuck over one small area for an extended period of time.

The result was an extremely rare event — one that would be expected to happen less than once every 1,000 years.

As seen in the graphic below, this can be blamed on a blocked weather pattern — a bumper-to-bumper traffic jam in the atmosphere — which extended well into the Atlantic Ocean and even Greenland. When nothing can move, heavy rain bands persist in the same spot.

This summer has featured a very amplified and wavy jet stream across the globe. One aspect of this type of pattern is a blocked flow, in which systems get stuck for extended periods of time.  / Credit: CBS News
This summer has featured a very amplified and wavy jet stream across the globe. One aspect of this type of pattern is a blocked flow, in which systems get stuck for extended periods of time. / Credit: CBS News

 

While the connection between climate change and extreme weather is still hard for science to put an exact number on, what this summer has made abundantly clear is that greenhouse warming from the accumulation of carbon emissions is amplifying extreme weather all over the globe. These extremes will only increase at a faster rate as the climate continues to warm.

Climate change made catastrophic flood more likely, study finds

Climate change made catastrophic flood more likely, study finds

One of the worst disasters in a summer full of extreme weather events — the Western European flooding in July — was made significantly more likely and more intense due to the impact of human-caused climate change, new research shows. More than 200 people lost their lives when rivers overflowed and roared through towns in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, washing away structures that had been standing for hundreds of years.

A Belgian government minister described the flood as “one of the greatest natural disasters our country has ever known.” As much as two months’ worth of rainfall fell in just two days, with some locations picking up nearly 8 inches.

The new study from a team of international scientists at World Weather Attribution has found that the European flooding event — even in today’s heated climate — would only be expected to occur once every 400 years in that part of the world. The study also found that the flood event was between 1.2 times and 9 times more likely than it would have been without climate change, and our warmer climate made it up to 19% more intense.

And the researchers warn, “these changes will continue in a rapidly warming climate.”

Rainfall totals from the mid-July European flood event in millimeters. / Credit: World Weather Attribution
Rainfall totals from the mid-July European flood event in millimeters. / Credit: World Weather Attribution

 

The factors the study takes into account involve fairly straightforward science. For instance, it’s well understood that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and dump more rain. The relationship is simple: for every 2 degrees Fahrenheit increase in global temperature, atmospheric water vapor increases by 8%.

In addition, the attribution study uses climate models to analyze local effects like the impact on convection (downpours) due to a warmer atmosphere. The study can then use computer modeling to compare heavy precipitation in today’s heated atmosphere with what they call a counter-factual world — one with cooler, pre-industrial-level temperatures. The difference between the heated and not-heated world tells scientists how impactful climate change has become.

While these numbers are impressive in their own right, they don’t tell the whole story. That’s because assessments like these focus on statistical and climate model analysis, which do not take into account the climate change impact on large scale weather patterns, like atmospheric steering currents known as the jet stream.

Climate change and the jet stream

The jet stream is a narrow river of air in the upper atmosphere which is responsible for steering storms around the globe and also separating cold air masses from warm air masses. In the case of the European floods there’s no debate that a very abnormal jet stream was a significant factor.

The jet stream at the time, from July 12 to 15, was so elongated, wavy and unstable that a piece of it broke off, forming what is called a cut-off low. These type of lows move very slowly, often dumping heavy precipitation over the same areas for a prolonged period of time.

You often hear us talk about the wavy jet stream. Here’s a good illustration of how this manifests in extreme weather, connecting the Europe flooding to the Heat Dome in the US West. Some scientists have found a connection between climate change and a more amp’d – wavy jet 1/…. pic.twitter.com/4rEZNHL3mg

Cut-off lows like the one in Europe can and do happen naturally. But they are made more likely when the jet stream is slower and more wavy. Many climate scientists believe that a warmer climate is indeed making the jet stream slower.

In 2018, Penn State climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann published a paper about changes in persistent extreme summer weather events, coining the rather technical term quasi-resonant amplification (QRA), which refers to large scale weather patterns that are more likely to be semi-stationary due to a warmer climate.

In an email to CBS News, Mann says although he doesn’t see evidence that QRA contributed to this flood event, “There’s no question that the overall slowing down of the summer jet stream did play a role.”

Mann calls attribution studies like this one “extremely conservative” and says that since its modeling doesn’t appear to have taken this factor into account, “it is likely understating the role climate change likely played here.”

Why was the impact of warming on the jet stream not included in the World Weather Attribution analysis? Simply put, jet stream dynamics are extremely complicated and hard to replicate in climate models. The jet stream also exhibits tremendous day-to-day and year-to-year variability in terms of its location, speed and degree of waviness. This makes determining the impact of climate change on the jet stream extremely challenging, especially for a rapid study like this.

The extent to which climate change is causing the jet stream is become slower and more “wavy” is one of the hottest debates in the climate community. There’s one camp of scientists who buy into a concept called the wavy jet stream — the idea that because the temperature contrast from the poles to the tropics is lessening, the jet stream slows down and becomes more meandering and curvy. There’s another camp, just as big, who disagree.

Although there is still no clear winner in this climate debate yet, there is one study, coincidentally published just two weeks before the European floods, which seems to be especially applicable. In their research, the authors not only take into account changing rain rates due to increased moisture and convection, but also the change in steering currents in the atmosphere.

Using extremely high resolution climate simulations, the authors were able to show that a future increase in precipitation extremes across Europe happens not only because of more moisture, but also due to slower storm movement of storms, which increases their duration in a given location. What they describe bears a striking resemblance to what happen in mid-July.

“Our results suggest such slow-moving storms may be 14x more frequent across land [in Europe] by the end of the century,” the study concludes. The authors say the main reason seems to be a reduced temperature difference between the poles and tropics, which weakens upper-level winds, especially in the fall.

But this impact of a slower, more amplified jet stream reverberates all around the globe. This past weekend in the U.S., record-breaking rainfall occurred both near the path of Henri in the New York City area and to a much larger degree in western Tennessee, where more than 17 inches of rain fell in 24 hours — a new state record.

Following a weekend of record-breaking rain after #Henri made landfall, @WeatherProf breaks down how climate change is intensifying these naturally occurring weather patterns. pic.twitter.com/iDNtam1OA8

 

The Tennessee flooding, which claimed at least 22 lives, was not caused by a large weather system. Rather, it was caused by a very narrow band of heavy rain which got stuck over one small area for an extended period of time.

The result was an extremely rare event — one that would be expected to happen less than once every 1,000 years.

As seen in the graphic below, this can be blamed on a blocked weather pattern — a bumper-to-bumper traffic jam in the atmosphere — which extended well into the Atlantic Ocean and even Greenland. When nothing can move, heavy rain bands persist in the same spot.

This summer has featured a very amplified and wavy jet stream across the globe. One aspect of this type of pattern is a blocked flow, in which systems get stuck for extended periods of time.  / Credit: CBS News
This summer has featured a very amplified and wavy jet stream across the globe. One aspect of this type of pattern is a blocked flow, in which systems get stuck for extended periods of time. / Credit: CBS News

 

While the connection between climate change and extreme weather is still hard for science to put an exact number on, what this summer has made abundantly clear is that greenhouse warming from the accumulation of carbon emissions is amplifying extreme weather all over the globe. These extremes will only increase at a faster rate as the climate continues to warm.

Denmark, Costa Rica seek alliance to speed up the end of oil and gas

Reuters

Denmark, Costa Rica seek alliance to speed up the end of oil and gas

By Kate Abnett and Stine Jacobsen         August 25, 2021

A flame burning natural gas is seen at the Joint stock company "Mozyr oil refinery" near the town of Mozyr, Belarus January 4, 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko/File Photo

A flame burning natural gas is seen at the Joint stock company “Mozyr oil refinery” near the town of Mozyr, Belarus January 4, 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko/File Photo

BRUSSELS/COPENHAGEN, Aug 25 (Reuters) – Denmark and Costa Rica are trying to forge an alliance of countries willing to fix a date to phase out oil and gas production and to stop giving permits for new exploration, government ministers said and documents showed.

Burning fossil fuels is the main source of the greenhouse gas emissions heating the planet, but so far there has been no collective government action to end oil and gas production.

“Restricting domestic oil and gas production in line with what is required to live up to the Paris Agreement goals will be the core focus for BOGA,” a draft of the rules for the alliance said, referring to the group’s name – the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA).

Industry and governments are moving too slowly to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit), which scientists say requires the world to reach net zero emissions by 2050. read more

The International Energy Agency has said there should be no new investments in fossil fuel supply projects anywhere in the world if the Paris targets are to be met. read more

The draft document seen by Reuters said a core task for the BOGA would be to establish a deadline for developing and developed countries to phase out existing oil and gas production that would align them with the Paris goals.

To become a full member of the alliance, countries must promise to end new licensing rounds for oil and gas production on their territories, as well as to phase out existing production, the draft said. The draft could change before the expected launch of the BOGA at the U.N. climate summit in November in Glasgow, Scotland.

Countries could become second-tier members if they have taken some steps to limit oil and gas output, such as ending public financing of it abroad or reforming fossil fuel subsidies.

LEVEL OF SUPPORT UNCLEAR

Danish climate and energy minister Dan Jorgensen told Reuters Denmark, which is co-leading the initiative with Costa Rica, was talking to many countries, but it was too early to say how many would join the alliance.

One of the largest European oil and gas producers, Denmark last year banned new North Sea oil and gas exploration and committed to ending its existing production by 2050.

“Very few countries have taken such steps and we hope that this alliance will be something that will be noticed and hopefully inspire others to join,” Jorgensen said.

Costa Rica has never extracted oil, but is considering a bill to permanently ban fossil fuel exploration to ensure no future governments do so.

“Costa Rica represents the commitment and decision of a developing country that has the possibility to explore, makes a brave decision and decides to go for another development model and rides into the economy of the future,” Costa Rica’s environment minister Andrea Meza said.

New Zealand, which banned new permits for offshore oil in 2018, told Reuters it had been approached by Denmark and was “in the process of learning more about this initiative”.

Costa Rica’s Meza said the countries the alliance had approached included Portugal and Spain. Spain did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment, while Portugal said it had not applied for membership of the alliance yet.

The United Kingdom, which is hosting the U.N. climate summit December and has not committed to phase out its oil and gas production or halt exploration, declined to comment on its involvement.

A UK government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters the government is engaging with Denmark on the alliance.

However, some large producers – including Norway, western Europe’s top oil and gas producer, are not yet involved.

“We’ve not been contacted in this regard,” Norwegian deputy energy minister Tony Tiller told Reuters.

PARADOXIAL SITUATION

As a coalition of the willing, BOGA is unlikely to touch major oil and gas producers, such as Saudia Arabia or Russia, whose economies depend on fossil fuels, and which have shown no interest in curbing production.

But part of BOGA’s aim is to redefine what counts as climate leadership from governments. Large countries’ climate change targets tend to focus on reducing emissions from burning fossil fuels, but rarely limit the production of the fuels themselves.

“We are in a paradoxical situation right now where many countries have pledged to become carbon neutral but are actually still planning to produce oil and gas after that date,” Jorgensen said.

The United States, the world’s largest producer of both oil and gas, this year pledged to halve its emissions by 2030, from 2005 levels. The U.S. government did not respond to a request for comment on whether it is involved in BOGA.

Of the few countries that have taken action to ban fossil fuel exploration and production, France has committed to do so by 2040, and Spain by 2042.

‘Times have changed’: some Afghan women defiant as Taliban return

‘Times have changed’: some Afghan women defiant as Taliban return

Afghan women wait to receive free wheat donated by the Afghan government during a quarantine, amid concerns about the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Kabul.

 

(Reuters) – Afghan women and girls who have won freedoms they could not have dreamt of under the last Taliban rule that ended 20 years ago are desperate not to lose them now the Islamist militant movement is back in power.

Taliban leaders have made reassurances in the build-up up to and aftermath of their stunning conquest of Afghanistan that girls and women would have the right to work and education, although they have come with caveats.

Some women have already been ordered from their jobs during the chaos of Taliban advances across the country in recent days. Others are fearful that whatever the militants say, the reality may be different.

“Times have changed,” said Khadija, who runs a religious school for girls in Afghanistan.

“The Taliban are aware they can’t silence us, and if they shut down the internet the world will know in less than 5 minutes. They will have to accept who we are and what we have become.”

That defiance reflects a generation of women, mainly in urban centers, who have grown up being able to attend school and university and to find jobs.

When the Taliban first ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, their strict interpretation of sharia, or Islamic law – sometimes brutally enforced – dictated that women could not work and girls were not allowed to attend school.

Women had to cover their face and be accompanied by a male relative if they wanted to venture out of their homes. Those who broke the rules sometimes suffered humiliation and public beatings by the Taliban’s religious police.

During the past two years, when it became clear that foreign troops were planning to withdraw from Afghanistan, Taliban leaders made assurances to the West that women would enjoy equal rights in accordance with Islam, including access to employment and education.

On Tuesday, at the Taliban’s first press conference since seizing Kabul on Sunday, spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said women would have rights https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/evacuation-flights-resume-kabul-airport-biden-defends-us-withdrawal-2021-08-17 to education, health and employment and that they would be “happy” within the framework of sharia.

Specifically referring to women working in media, Mujahid said it would depend on what laws were introduced by the new government in Kabul.

On Tuesday, a female anchor for the private Afghan channel Tolo TV interviewed a Taliban spokesman live on air.

WOMEN FORCED FROM WORK

Afghan girls’ education activist Pashtana Durrani, 23, was wary of Taliban promises.

“They have to walk the talk. Right now they’re not doing that,” she told Reuters, referring to assurances that girls would be allowed to attend schools.

“If they limit the curriculum, I am going to upload more books to (an) online library. If they limit the internet … I will send books to homes. If they limit teachers I will start an underground school, so I have an answer for their solutions.”

Some women have said that one test of the Taliban’s commitment to equal rights would be whether they give them political and policy making jobs.

Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai, who survived being shot in the head by a Pakistani gunman in 2012 after she campaigned for girls’ rights to education, said she was deeply concerned https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malala-yousafzai-urges-world-leaders-take-urgent-action-afghanistan-2021-08-17 about the situation in Afghanistan.

“I had the opportunity to talk to a few activists in Afghanistan, including women’s rights activists, and they are sharing their concern that they are not sure what their life is going to be like,” Yousafzai told BBC Newsnight.

The United Nations’ children’s agency UNICEF expressed cautious optimism https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/unicef-says-some-taliban-support-education-afghan-girls-2021-08-17 about working with Taliban officials, citing their early expressions of support for girls’ education.

It is still delivering aid to most parts of the country and has held initial meetings with new Taliban representatives in recently seized cities like Kandahar, Herat and Jalalabad.

“We have ongoing discussions, we are quite optimistic based on those discussions,” UNICEF’s chief of field operations in Afghanistan, Mustapha Ben Messaoud, told a U.N. briefing.

But U.N. chief Antonio Guterres warned on Monday of “chilling” curbs on human rights under the Taliban and mounting violations against women and girls.

Reuters reported https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-women-bankers-forced-roles-taliban-takes-control-2021-08-13 last week that in early July, Taliban fighters walked into a commercial bank branch in Kandahar and ordered nine women working there to leave because their jobs were deemed inappropriate. They were allowed to be replaced by male relatives.

(Writing and editing by Mike Collett-White)

Climate change: Europe’s 2020 heat reached ‘troubling’ level

Climate change: Europe’s 2020 heat reached ‘troubling’ level

Fire
Fire. Last year was the warmest on record across Europe, breaking the previous high mark by a considerable distance, say scientists.

Temperatures across the region were more than 1.9C above the long-term average between 1981 and 2010.

The State of the Climate 2020 report from the American Meteorological Society says temperatures in the Arctic are also rising rapidly.

The temperature over land there was the highest since records began in 1900.

Reports earlier this year had confirmed that 2020 was Europe’s warmest on record and one of the three hottest globally.

This new data shows that Europe’s temperature margin over previous years was significantly greater than previously thought.

Not only was the year 1.9C above the long-term average, it was more than 0.5C greater than the previous high mark.

“This level of difference to the previous long-term average, which is a large difference, is something that is concerning,” said Dr. Robert Dunn, a senior climate scientist at the UK Met Office.

“It is something to sit up and take notice of, but it’s not just the temperatures that are increasing, the extreme events, the heat waves we’re seeing this year, and last year as well. We’re seeing these responses across the world.”

Other researchers agreed that the scale of the record-breaking heat in Europe was troubling.

“The amount by which the previous record has been exceeded should worry us all,” said Prof Gabi Hegerl, professor of climate system science at the University of Edinburgh, who was not involved with the study.

“European temperatures are well measured and can be tracked back to the beginning of industrialization and beyond, using documentary evidence and proxy records. This long-term context emphasizes how unusual this warmth is.”

river
River. The warmth across Europe brought huge temperature differences from the long-term average in some countries with Estonia, Finland and Latvia all recording anomalies of 2.4C.

 

Overall, Europe has seen its five warmest years on record all occur since 2014.

One other area of the world experiencing rapid warming is the Arctic.

Temperatures over land reached worrying new heights, getting to 2.1C above the 1981-2010 average. This was the highest since the series of records began 121 years ago.

It was also the seventh year in succession with an annual average temperature more than 1C above the average.

“The Arctic, we see warming incredibly rapidly. It was the warmest average surface temperature in the Arctic in a series going back 121 years, in 2020,” said Dr Dunn.

“That, of course feeds down into places nearby, which includes Europe to some level. But we’re seeing these effects throughout the world.”

Key findings from the State of the Climate 2020
  • Earth’s greenhouse gases were the highest on record. Despite the global pandemic that slowed economic activity, the major atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide rose to a new record high in 2020.
  • CO2 levels were the highest in both the modern 62-year record and in ice cores dating back as far as 800,000 years.
  • Global sea level was the highest on record. For the ninth consecutive year, global average sea level rose to a new record high and was about 91.3mm higher than when satellite observations began.
  • Earth’s warming trend continued. The year 2020 was among the three-warmest years since records began (around 1850) and was the warmest year on record without an El Niño event (a warming climate pattern in the Pacific).
  • The last seven years (2014-20) were the seven warmest years on record.

While rainfall around the world wasn’t exceptionally high during 2020, the authors say that there’s a clear response from the hydrological cycle to sustained heating.

Total atmospheric water vapor was well above average. The extra moisture adds to the impact of higher temperatures on humans.

Drought
Dry conditions were seen in many parts of Europe in 2020

 

Taken together, the indicators show what one of the study’s editors calls “our new normal”.

“This report follows closely on the latest [UN] IPCC [climate] report which could not be clearer in its messaging,” said Dr. Kate Willett, from the Met Office.

“Our climate has changed and is likely to continue changing unless the key driver, greenhouse gases, are curbed, and what we’re seeing now is already straining our society and our environment.”

The House seat of one of the GOP’s ‘most prominent’ Trump critics is on the chopping block

The House seat of one of the GOP’s ‘most prominent’ Trump critics is on the chopping block

Adam Kinzinger.
Adam Kinzinger. Andrew Harnik-Pool/Getty Images

 

A new congressional map in Illinois could spell trouble for the House tenure of “one of the GOP’s most prominent” critics of former President Donald Trump, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), Politico reports.

Democrats, having “total control” over redistricting in Illinois, will almost definitely “attempt to maximize party gains” with the updated map, especially as sure-to-be contentious midterms threaten the party’s razor-thin majority. That said, “thanks to declining population,” Kinzinger’s seat will very likely be cut, writes Politico.

Although no official proposed map has yet emerged, “few party operatives in D.C. or Illinois could envision a final plan that leaves much of Kinzinger’s seat intact,” Politico writes. “If I had to take a bet, I bet that we lose a Republican district,” said Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.).

Should Kinzinger lose his seat, he’d be forced to choose between running somewhere new, perhaps against another incumbent, or making a long shot bid for governor or Senate, assuming he could perform in a GOP primary after having repeatedly criticized Trump. Said Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), when asked if Kinzinger could win in a different seat: “It’d be hard.”

But maybe that’s counting him out too early. Some think Kinzinger could mount a successful 2024 presidential run. Others think he could shore up the vote from suburban moderates and democrat-skeptical independents. For his part, Kinzinger, who told Politico he isn’t “losing sleep” over the possibility of losing his seat, hasn’t counted himself out of the political conversation moving forward.

“I certainly wouldn’t rule out Senate or governor and anything else,” he said. “Maybe, who knows?” Read more at Politico.

Is climate change to blame for extreme weather events? Attribution science says yes, for some – here’s how it works

<span class="caption">Climate change made the devastating flooding in Belgium, Germany and other European countries in July 2021 more likely.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="link rapid-noclick-resp" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/picture-taken-on-july-15-2021-shows-a-view-of-a-flooded-news-photo/1233994855" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Anthony Dehez/Belga/AFP via Getty Images">Anthony Dehez/Belga/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
Climate change made the devastating flooding in Belgium, Germany and other European countries in July 2021 more likely.

Anthony Dehez/Belga/AFP via Getty Images

 

Extreme rainfall and flooding left paths of destruction through communities around the world this summer. The latest was in Tennessee, where preliminary data shows a record-shattering 17 inches of rain fell in 24 hours, turning creeks into rivers that flooded hundreds of homes and killed at least 18 people.

A lot of people are asking: Was it climate change? Answering that question isn’t so simple.

There has always been extreme weather, but human-caused global warming can increase extreme weather’s frequency and severity. For example, research shows that human activities such as burning fossil fuels are unequivocally warming the planet, and we know from basic physics that warm air can hold more moisture.

A decade ago, scientists weren’t able to confidently connect any individual weather event to climate change, even though the broader climate change trends were clear. Today, attribution studies can show whether extreme events were affected by climate change and whether they can be explained by natural variability alone. With rapid advances from research and increasing computing power, extreme event attribution has become a burgeoning new branch of climate science.

The latest attribution study, released Aug. 23, 2021, looked at the rainfall from the European storm that killed more than 220 people when floods swept through Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands in July 2021.

A team of climate scientists with the group World Weather Attribution analyzed the record-breaking storm, dubbed Bernd, focusing on two of the most severely affected areas. Their analysis found that human-induced climate change made a storm of that severity between 1.2 and 9 times more likely than it would have been in a world 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 F) cooler. The planet has warmed just over 1 C since the industrial era began.

An overturned trailer and flooded car were washed into a creek by flash flooding during heavy rainfall in Tennessee.
An overturned trailer and flooded car were washed into a creek by flash flooding during heavy rainfall in Tennessee.

Similar studies haven’t yet been conducted on the Tennessee storm, but they likely will be.

So, how do scientists figure this out? As an atmospheric scientist, I have been involved in attribution studies. Here’s how the process works:

How do attribution studies work?

Attribution studies usually involve four steps.

The first step is to define the event’s magnitude and frequency based on observational data. For example, the July rainfall in Germany and Belgium broke records by large margins. The scientists determined that in today’s climate, a storm like that would occur on average every 400 years in the wider region.

The second step is to use computers to run climate models and compare those models’ results with observational data. To have confidence in a climate model’s results, the model needs to be able to realistically simulate such extreme events in the past and accurately represent the physical factors that help these events occur.

The third step is to define the baseline environment without climate change – essentially create a virtual world of Earth as it would be if no human activities had warmed the planet. Then run the same climate models again.

The differences between the second and third steps represent the impact of human-caused climate change. The last step is to quantify these differences in the magnitude and frequency of the extreme event, using statistical methods.

For instance, we analyzed how Hurricane Harvey in August 2017 and a unique weather pattern interacted with each other to produce the record-breaking rainstorm in Texas. Two attribution studies found that human-caused climate change increased the probability of such an event by roughly a factor of three, and increased Harvey’s rainfall by 15%.

Another study determined that the western North American extreme heat in late June 2021 would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.

US Map showing strong temperature anomalies from Oregon through British Columbia.
US Map showing strong temperature anomalies from Oregon through British Columbia.
How good are attribution studies?

The accuracy of attribution studies is affected by uncertainties associated with each of the above four steps.

Some types of events lend themselves to attribution studies better than others. For instance, among long-term measurements, temperature data is most reliable. We understand how human-caused climate change affects heat waves better than other extreme events. Climate models are also usually skillful in simulating heat waves.

Even for heat waves, the impact of human-caused climate change on the magnitude and frequency could be quite different, such as the case of the extraordinary heat wave across western Russia in 2010. Climate change was found to have had minimal impact on the magnitude but substantial impact on the frequency.

There can also be legitimate differences in the methods underpinning different attribution studies.

However, people can make decisions for the future without knowing everything with certainty. Even when planning a backyard barbecue, one does not have to have all the weather information.

Read more: The water cycle is intensifying as the climate warms, IPCC report warns – that means more intense storms and flooding

[Get our best science, health and technology stories. Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter.]

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by: Xubin ZengUniversity of Arizona.

Read more:

Xubin Zeng receives funding from NASA, DOE, NOAA, the US Army Corps of Engineers and the California Department of Water Resources. He is a fellow of both the American Meteorological Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and is a member of the American Geophysical Union.

A Florida teacher who couldn’t get vaccinated because of her cancer treatment died of COVID-19.

A Florida teacher who couldn’t get vaccinated because of her cancer treatment died of COVID-19. Her union says she caught it from her classroom, which had no mask mandate.

Lake Shipp Elementary
Lake Shipp Elementary School in Florida Google Street View
 
  • Florida elementary school teacher Kelly Peterson died of COVID-19 complications on Monday.
  • She was advised not to get a COVID-19 vaccine by her doctor due to her leukemia treatment.
  • Her sister and union believes Peterson got infected in the classroom, where masks were not mandatory.

A 41-year-old Florida teacher whose doctor had advised her against getting vaccinated has died of COVID-19 complications after she was forced to return to in-person teaching where there was no mask mandate, local outlets say.

Kelly Peterson was not vaccinated against the coronavirus because she had leukemia and her doctor advised against getting the shot in her already weakened state, her sister, Christin, told KTVU.

Lake Shipp Elementary School announced Peterson’s death in a Facebook post on Monday, saying she “touched hundreds of students’ lives” and “made a lasting impression on us all.”

Both Peterson’s sister and the Polk County teacher’s union said that she contracted COVID-19 in the classroom, KTVU reported. However, it should be noted that it’s almost impossible to know how someone contracted COVID-19.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has banned mask mandates in the state, but several schools have defied the order.

Peterson’s sister told KTVU of the doctor’s warnings against the COVID-19 vaccination: “Because her leukemia was so bad at this point, their concern was by getting the vaccine that potentially could put too much stress on her body.”

Cancer patients and survivors are encouraged to get the vaccine, but to discuss the decision with their doctor first, according to the American Cancer Society. ACS said the main question about vaccines and cancer is not whether the vaccine is safe, but whether it is as effective in people with already compromised immune systems.

Last year, Peterson worked remotely, but her sister said she was forced to return to in-person learning this school year, even though she’s immunocompromised.

“With all the COVID cases this year and her medical situation, she should have been a virtual teacher this year. The school didn’t offer that,” Peterson’s sister told The Ledger.

Both the Polk County School District superintendent and the Lake Shipp principal did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment.

Lorinda Utter, one of Peterson’s coworkers, told The Ledger that Peterson took every precaution in the classroom, wearing a mask at all times and sanitizing surfaces regularly.

“She did everything she could to try to stay away from COVID,” Utter said.

Peterson was terrified of getting COVID-19, her sister said, and knew the effects it would have on her if she contracted it.

“She had voiced concerns many times that if she contracted COVID, she was afraid that it would kill her, and unfortunately that’s what happened,” Christin Peterson told KTVU.

Christin Peterson also said she hopes her sister’s story will encourage more people to get vaccinated.

Stephanie Yocum, president of the Polk County Teachers union, said she hopes parents “set good examples” for their kids by wearing masks.

“If wearing a mask can keep somebody from dying, that should be something that every person should do right now,” Yocum told KTVU.

How ‘America’s Frontline Doctors’ Sold Access to Bogus COVID-19 Treatments—and Left Patients in the Lurch

TIME

How ‘America’s Frontline Doctors’ Sold Access to Bogus COVID-19 Treatments—and Left Patients in the Lurch

Vera Bergengruen – August 26, 2021

Tablets of Ivermectin on May 19, 2021. Soumyabrata Roy—NurPhoto/Shutterstock

Mike says he was struggling with COVID-19 when he felt his breathing getting worse. He did not want to go to the Veterans Affairs hospital near his home, where he believed doctors might put him on a ventilator. And he knew they would not prescribe the treatment he really wanted: a drug called ivermectin.

So in late July, Mike, who says he is a 48-year-old teacher and disabled veteran from New York state, contacted America’s Frontline Doctors (AFLD), a group he had been following on social media. AFLD has been a leading promoter of ivermectin, a medication typically used to treat parasitic worms in livestock, as a “safe and effective treatment” for COVID-19. Through its website, Mike says, he paid the group $90 for a telemedicine appointment with a doctor willing to prescribe the drug.

A week later, he was still anxiously waiting for the consultation. Calls and emails to AFLD went unreturned, he says. Finally, he called his bank to report a fraudulent charge. “Not even an apology,” Mike, whom TIME is referring to using a pseudonym because of his concerns about his job, told TIME in an interview. “This is absolutely nuts. This organization is not helping anyone but their pocketbooks.”


Similar stories have flooded anti-vaccine forums and messaging apps in recent weeks as some customers and donors raise doubts about AFLD. The group describes itself as a “non-partisan” group of medical professionals. But it originated as a right-wing political organization, and since its founding has consistently spread medical misinformation. Its name implies the group consists of physicians on the frontlines of the pandemic, but it’s not clear how many of its members have spent any time treating patients with COVID-19.

Its followers aren’t the only ones with questions about AFLD. It’s hard to pin down how many people the group employs, how much money it’s taking in, or how that money has been spent, in part because the non-profit has failed to file required disclosures. After it failed to submit its annual report in Arizona, where the group is registered under the name “Free Speech Foundation,” the state recently downgraded the organization’s charitable status to “pending inactive.”

Over the past three months, a TIME investigation found, hundreds of AFLD customers and donors have accused the group of touting a service promising prescriptions for ivermectin, which medical authorities say should not be taken to treat or prevent COVID-19, and failing to deliver after a fee had been paid. Some customers described being charged for consultations that did not happen. Others said they were connected to digital pharmacies that quoted excessive prices of up to $700 for the cheap medication. In more than 3,000 messages reviewed by TIME, dozens of people described their or their family members’ COVID-19 symptoms worsening while they waited for an unproven “wonder drug” that didn’t arrive.

“My mom has now been admitted to the hospital with Covid,” one user wrote Aug. 12 on the group’s channel on the messaging app Telegram. “AFLDS has not returned a call or message to her and they’ve taken over $500 out of her account!”

Since its founding last year by Dr. Simone Gold, a Los Angeles physician who was later arrested during the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, America’s Frontline Doctors has nurtured medical conspiracies popular in right-wing circles. Created as a political project to support the Trump Administration’s economic reopening push, it ricocheted from promoting skepticism about COVID-19 to launching a national RV tour to denounce “medical censorship and cancel culture.” It promoted hydroxychloroquine as a miracle drug and billed itself as a provider of legal services for people who refuse to be vaccinated or to wear a mask, or who want to stop vaccinations for children.

The group’s profile has soared amid the rise of employer-imposed COVID-19 mandates and the emergence of ivermectin as an alternative treatment of choice for the broader anti-vaccine community. AFLD’s Telegram channels have rapidly grown to more than 160,000 users. Its website traffic has quadrupled since April, according to an analysis by the web-analytics company SemRush, which estimates it drew nearly half a million visitors in July. In the process, AFLD’s reach has spread beyond to mainstream sites like Instagram and TikTok, making it a leading purveyor of medical disinformation that erodes public confidence and hinders efforts to get the pandemic under control, experts say.

“They’re the 21st century, digital version of snake-oil salesmen,” says Irwin Redlener, a physician who directs the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University. “And in the case of ivermectin, it’s extremely dangerous.”

America’s Frontline Doctors declined repeated requests for comment on this story. On its Telegram channels, moderators have blamed user error and overwhelming demand for the ivermectin delays and promised refunds for customers who fail to receive the consultations with doctors that they paid for. Attempts to reach Dr. Gold, the group’s founder, through her lawyer were unsuccessful.

Federal authorities are cracking down on coronavirus-related telemedicine schemes. The Federal Trade Commission has sent nearly 400 warning letters to groups and individuals marketing false COVID-19 treatments, including one missive, in April, telling a Texas medical practice to “immediately cease” promoting ivermectin or face steep fines. It is illegal under the federal COVID-19 Consumer Protection Act, enacted earlier this year, to advertise that a product can prevent, treat or cure COVID-19 “unless you possess competent and reliable scientific evidence substantiating that the claims are true.” No such study exists for ivermectin, according to the FDA.

Yet despite the FDA’s warnings about the dangers of misusing ivermectin to treat or prevent COVID-19, the drug has become highly sought after in anti-vaccine circles. Doctors and pharmacists tell TIME they have noticed a surge in ivermectin prescriptions called in by telemedicine services, and a growing number of patients demanding it as an alternative to COVID-19 vaccines. Many who fail to obtain prescriptions through groups like AFLD or find it too expensive have resorted to buying an alternative from feed stores that is designed for use in livestock, according to Telegram chats, which reveal members advising each other on proper dosages. Mississippi health officials said Aug. 20 that 70% of recent calls to its poison control center were from people ingesting ivermectin meant for livestock.A nurse checks on a patient in the ICU Covid-19 ward at NEA Baptist Memorial Hospital in Jonesboro, Ark., on Aug. 4, 2021. Houston Cofield—Bloomberg/Getty Images

The ivermectin craze reflects some of the most damaging elements of the post-Trump conservative movement, with a mixture of political profiteering, disinformation, exploitation of social media and conspiratorial thinking combining at a critical point in the pandemic. AFLD has capitalized on “the perfect storm of everything that you needed to have a large population of people susceptible to vaccine misinformation,” says Kolina Koltai, a researcher who studies the anti-vaccine movement at the University of Washington. “America’s Frontline Doctors are really good at what they do. This idea of doctors fighting the system is a narrative that is really appealing to a lot of people.”

‘A coordinated political effort’

On July 27, 2020, a small group of doctors assembled on the steps of the Supreme Court for a news conference. At the time, President Donald Trump was pushing for governors to reopen their states and conservatives had grown increasingly frustrated with lockdown measures. The physicians, who wore white lab coats embroidered with the AFLD logo, had come to repeat a range of White House talking points. They claimed the mental toll of the lockdowns was worse than the virus itself, that hydroxychloroquine was an effective treatment for COVID-19 and that masks weren’t necessary—all of which had been contradicted by U.S. health officials.

To the extent that the mainstream medical community paid attention to the group at all, it was to point out that these doctors making misstatements lacked the expertise to comment. There was no evidence that any of the doctors who spoke that day had treated patients severely ill with the virus, according to MedPage Today, a peer-reviewed medical news site. None of them were infectious-disease experts or worked in intensive-care units during the pandemic. One was best known for promoting bizarre religious beliefs, including tweeting that America needed “deliverance from demon sperm” because people were falling ill from having sex with demons and witches in their dreams. Two of the “frontline” doctors were ophthalmologists, only one of whom was still licensed.

The emergence of AFLD was a coordinated political effort months in the making. The group was the brainchild of the Council for National Policy (CNP), a secretive network of conservative activists. During a May 11 call of CNP members that was leaked to the Center for Media and Democracy, a progressive watchdog group, members complained that Trump was being slammed for his handling of the pandemic, including failing to follow scientific guidelines. The group needed their own medical professionals to promote their message, they said, in the face of data showing two-thirds of Americans were wary of restarting the economy.

“There is a coalition of doctors who are extremely pro-Trump, that have been preparing and coming together for the war ahead in the campaign on health care,” Nancy Schulze, a Republican activist married to a former Pennsylvania congressman, said on the call. “And these doctors could be activated for this conversation now.”

Eight days later, conservative groups publicized a letter signed by more than 500 doctors calling the lockdowns a “mass casualty event.” The lead signatory was Dr. Simone Gold, a licensed emergency-room physician and Stanford-educated lawyer who was working as a part-time, independent contractor in a hospital in Bakersfield, Calif. Ten weeks after the letter’s release, Gold was standing on the steps of the Supreme Court as the founder of AFLD as Rep. Ralph Norman, a South Carolina Republican, thanked the white-coated physicians for coming to “tell us the truth.” The event was hosted and funded by the Tea Party Patriots, a pro-Trump right-wing group.

While few people attended the event, a video of the press conference went viral after it was retweeted by Trump, earning some members of the group an audience with Vice President Mike Pence. And though it was subsequently removed by social-media platforms for spreading misinformation, Gold and other members made the rounds on conservative media, from Fox News to Alex Jones and Pat Robertson.

Since then, the group has positioned itself as the leading alternative medical source for COVID-19 skeptics. Its message has changed to match the moment. At first, Gold downplayed the severity of the virus. “We’re all acting as though there’s a huge medical crisis,” she said in a May 2020 video, as the number of Americans dead from COVID-19 passed 100,000. “I’m not sure that it’s front-page news.” The real issue, Gold added, was that “our constitutional rights are being trampled on right and left.”

Soon after, the group argued there was a conspiracy to suppress an effective treatment for the pandemic ravaging the globe. “If all Americans had access to hydroxychloroquine, the pandemic would essentially end in about 30 days,” another member of AFLD, a child psychiatrist named Mark McDonald, said on a video picked up by Alex Jones’ NewsWars website. The group soon partnered with a telemedicine site set up by right-wing conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi to sell prescriptions for the medication, which Trump promoted and said he took as a preventive measure.

As it turned out, promoting fictions about COVID-19 could be profitable. AFLD built a slick website, whose domain was bought by the Tea Party Patriots, and an email list of loyal followers whom they urged to make donations. When Gold was arrested for participating in the Jan. 6 insurrection, emails to supporters requesting their “urgent and generous donations to withstand such aggressive assaults from the ruthless enemies of free speech” raised more than $400,000 for Gold’s legal defense.

In the spring of 2021, the group announced a national RV tour, which sold VIP tickets for a “meet-and-greet” with Gold for $1,000. According to AFLD Telegram channels, they frequently canceled scheduled appearances, leaving people who had taken the day off work or driven for hours in the lurch. “Hundreds of us registered and received no information or cancellation notice,” one disappointed supporter in Cleveland wrote on June 22 when the promised tour did not arrive. AFLD moderators, meanwhile, urged followers that such events could “continue only when everyone donates what they can monthly.”

By then, the group had pivoted from hydroxychloroquine and medical choice to anti-vaccine content. AFLD falsely claimed the Covid-19 vaccines were “not effective in treating or preventing” the virus and that they had killed 45,000 people in the U.S. “This is an experimental biological agent whose harms are well documented,” Gold said in a statement on the group’s website in May. The group compared lockdown measures to Communist tactics of the 1950s and urged supporters to call their lawmakers to demand they introduce a “Vaccine Bill of Rights”—versions of which soon cropped up in Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota and South Carolina, including boilerplate written by AFLD.

Then, as the Delta variant tore across the U.S. and people in AFLDs forums started to report themselves or their family members falling ill, the group started heavily promoting ivermectin.

‘I feel scammed.’

Ivermectin first gained prominence in December 2020, when Dr. Pierre Kory, then a pulmonary care specialist at a Wisconsin hospital, testified about the “wonder drug” to a Senate panel chaired by Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, a Trump ally known has touted alternative treatments to COVID-19.Dr. Pierre Kory testifies during the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing titled Early Outpatient Treatment: An Essential Part of a COVID-19 Solution, Part II, in Dirksen Building on Dec. 8, 2020. Tom Williams—CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images

The anti-parasite drug, which is commonly used for horses, is approved to treat certain parasitic worms in humans. It is not an antiviral medication and there is no evidence that it is effective in preventing or treating Covid-19, according to the FDA, which says overdoses of the drug can lead to vomiting, allergic reactions, seizures, coma, and even death.

Two pharmacists told TIME said they were alarmed when they noticed an odd surge in ivermectin prescriptions called in by telemedicine doctors in recent weeks. “We’re calling it the second coming of hydroxychloroquine,” one pharmacist in Maine says, noting he had seen prescriptions come in from “quack telehealth prescribers” in Texas, Florida, Illinois and California. “It’s wild to me and other pharmacists I’ve talked to how people won’t get a vaccine that is well-tolerated and effective because it’s ‘experimental’ but they’ll take a dose of ivermectin that’s been extrapolated based on weight from equine veterinary guidelines.”

On social media, AFLD is one of the top organizations steering customers to the de-worming medication as a coronavirus treatment. On its website, people looking for “Covid-19 medicine” are told to click on a button labeled “Contact a physician” and pay $90 for a consultation. The link takes customers to another website, “Speak With An MD,” where they’re asked to submit payment information and told that one of the “frontline doctors” will call them within a few days, with sick patients being prioritized. The group describes “Speak with an MD” as a “telemedicine service with hundreds of AFLDS-trained physicians.”

But the actual service is Encore Telemedicine, a company that connects patients to teledoctors willing to write prescriptions, according to the web portal and posts by AFLD staffers. Since 2015, it appears to have been run out of a home by a golf club in suburban Georgia, according to its business registration. (Encore’s CEO did not respond to requests for comment.)

The orders made through Encore Telemedicine then go to Ravkoo, a digital pharmacy in Auburndale, Florida, whose address listed online appears to be a dilapidated white structure by a strip mall. Ravkoo is supposed to either mail the medicine or call it into a local pharmacy. (The owner of Ravkoo did not respond to requests for comment). The cost of the medicine is applied on top of the consultation fee, and varies widely, from $70 to $700, according to AFLD customers’ comments.

It’s not clear how much America’s Frontline Doctors gets from each patient referral. The service is marketed on AFLD’s site for $90, while a direct telemedicine consultation through Speak With An MD is listed at just $59.99, a $30 difference. AFLD declined to comment on whether they receive any financial benefit from the referral.

AFLD has been using this system to sell hydroxychloroquine since at least last fall. But the network has been overwhelmed by a surge in demand for ivermectin in recent weeks, according to frustrated customers.

The group’s chaotic Telegram channels are filled with questions. Some say they paid for a consultation but never received a call from a doctor. Others say they were prescribed ivermectin but never received it; still others received the wrong medications or were charged inflated prices. Customers claimed to have paid for the non-refundable consultation and the drugs, only to have their local pharmacies refuse to fill the prescription because ivermectin is not approved to treat COVID-19. All of these people reported that repeated calls and emails sent to AFLD, Encore Telemedicine and Ravkoo went unanswered.

Many users call the arrangement a fraud. “Still no drugs as prescribed! Have not heard from their pharmacy. Very disappointing,” one user wrote on Telegram Aug. 1. “They took my money though. Definitely feels like a scam.” That same day, another frustrated customer wrote: “You tell us the vaccine producers are getting rich off us. Seems like you are doing very well yourselves?”

Another user told TIME she paid the $90 and never got the doctor consultation, but did get a call from a pharmacy that charged her another $100. “I have not heard a word. I feel scammed,” says the user, who would provide only her first name, Denise.

Other supporters, who had been promised they’d speak to “AFLDs-trained physicians,” were upset when the doctor pressed them to get the vaccine during the paid phone consultation. “Not happy at all with that!” wrote one woman who said her daughter’s telemedicine doctor had told her to get vaccinated in addition to prescribing ivermectin. “I felt like I could trust them not to push the vaccine…severely disappointed.”

Dozens of messages reviewed by TIME were from people with sick family members, who were begging for AFLDs to escalate their cases. A woman named Chynthia who had paid the fee—“$90 is a lot for us,” she said—wrote that she had never been called back. “Please help! My husband is sick. And looks like he does have a hard time breathing.”

As the confusion has mounted, some have questioned the group’s motives. A user named Vinod told TIME he had been a monthly donor to AFLD but had to call his credit-card company to stop repeated fraudulent charges and ask for a replacement card to prevent other fees from piling up.

Moderators for the AFLDs group on Telegram acknowledged to frustrated users that they were overwhelmed by the demand, although they said to “blame the CDC for the blockade” of ivermectin. But they insisted that once the physician fee is paid, “this is out of AFLDs hands operationally because of HIPPA [sic].”

‘The anti-vax movement as a whole is one big multi-level marketing scheme.’

The embrace of ivermectin by the broader anti-vaccine community has expanded AFLD’s reach. On TikTok, more than a dozen accounts reviewed by TIME show young people, some of them teenagers, touting ivermectin as a COVID-19 cure and promoting AFLD as the place to buy it. “It’s done wonders for me and it’s kicked Covid’s ass,” said one young user who documented her recovery over six videos, using the hashtag #novaccine and recommending others get ivermectin through AFLD.

Dr. Siyab Panhwar, a cardiology fellow at the University of Tulane, has been using his own TikTok account to refute misinformation about ivermectin. “The unfortunate reality is that there are some doctors that push this, and it harms the entire community,” says Dr. Panhwar. “[AFLD] say on their website that they will ‘review your history’ but I call B.S. There is no physical examination…How is this medically appropriate or safe? AFLD is dangerous and needs to be stopped.” The financial incentive to push products like ivermectin should be a massive red flag, Panhwar says. “The anti-vax movement as a whole is one big multi-level marketing scheme.”Protesters against COVID-19 vaccine and mask mandates demonstrate near the state Capitol in Santa Fe, N.M. on Aug. 20, 2021. Cedar Attanasio—AP

None of this is slowing AFLD’s movement. As fights over vaccine mandates and school-masking policies ramp up, AFLD has created “Citizen Corps” chapters in almost every state, with dedicated Telegrams channels and public events, like a Texas meeting that drew 80 people to hear lectures about vaccine side effects. At the group’s “White Coat Summit” in July to commemorate its first anniversary, it cut a video of children ceremonially burning their masks while singing “We Are The World.”

AFLD has meanwhile garnered significant publicity by touting itself as a legal resource for people who want to defy employers’ mandates to be vaccinated, tested or wear a mask. AFLD has used its “legal eagle dream team” to solicit funds, but according to some donors, that promised help has also failed to materialize. “Still waiting to hear back from legal eagle,” a user named Carlos, who said he had submitted multiple forms and emails for legal help, said on Telegram on Aug. 14. “I’m about to get fired and need legal help.”

Several supporters said they were defying employer vaccine mandates based on information and advice from AFLD. “I hope you guys are right,” a user named Jeffery posted on Aug. 20 in response to a video from the group promising to fight vaccine mandates in court. “I’m about to lose my career of over 20 years, my pension and my livelihood because I’m not taking the shot.” Others say their employers laughed off the vaccine-exemption forms they’ve printed off the AFLD website. “I am losing hope,” wrote one user named Cathy on July 6. “I just spoke with a lawyer that said the proof from Frontline Doctors is a conspiracy theory.”

The pleas of customers who trusted the group have often grown desperate. “Does anyone know how long it takes to hear back from America’s Frontline Doctors about getting Covid medicine?” asked a user who said she was pregnant and having chest pain and shortness of breath from the virus. “It seems like I’ll never hear back from them in my worst moment of need.”

On Aug. 17, one man posted in the group’s Telegram that he had waited on AFLD for weeks before they canceled his consultation for ivermectin. “Wish they hadn’t because my wife is in the ICU now,” he wrote. “Had I gotten the meds she would have been fine.”

With reporting by Alejandro de la Garza, Simmone Shah and Julia Zorthian