Mariupol evacuee fears for families still trapped under steel works
Alessandra Prentice and Joseph Campbell – May 4, 2022
Tetyana Trotsak walks with her dog in front a hotel used as temporary shelter in Zaporizhzhia
ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine (Reuters) – After two months in a bunker, Mariupol evacuee Tetyana Trotsak is feeling the sun on her face and staring up at the bright blue sky on her first day of freedom.
But she can’t forget the 42 people she believes are still stuck in a shelter they shared under Ukraine’s besieged Azovstal steel works.
The 25-year-old, her husband and parents were among the dozens of civilians who reached the Ukraine-controlled town of Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday after being evacuated from the plant in Russian-occupied Mariupol where other civilians and the city’s last defenders remain under siege.
Holding her lapdog Daisy to her chest, Trotsak looked around at the quiet street with wonder.
“To escape and be beneath the peaceful sky, look at it – blue and the bright sun. I think we’re all getting badly sunburnt because we got so little vitamin D,” she said on Wednesday after her first night above ground since early March.
“But I’m terribly worried about the civilians and wounded soldiers that are still there.”
Of the 56 people, including children, in their bunker, Trotsak knows of only 14 who were able to evacuate so far.
City authorities say around 200 civilians and more than 30 children are still trapped at the steel plant, whose vast network of underground bunkers has suffered repeated bombardment from encircling Russian troops.
LIFE UNDERGROUND
Trotsak, who works at a local power company, said her family decided to take refuge at Azovstal after a shell landed near their home, blew open the doors, and “made everything shake like jelly.”
They grabbed a few belongings and some bedding and moved into one of the plant’s shelters, pooling food with other families and making makeshift beds out of bits of wood. The cold, damp conditions made everything mouldy, she said.
As the weeks went by in March and sounds of fighting and explosions appeared to come closer, the group started losing hope they would soon be able to return to their homes.
“When the heavy shelling started and powerful strikes started landing near our shelter, we could feel the shaking just by sitting on the bed,” Trotsak said, recalling frantic efforts to find a way to light the pitch-black bunker after the attacks cut off power supplies.
Talking about their ordeal, she remained calm, tearing up only when she described how her family had to ask a Ukrainian soldier to kill their older dog Jerry, who was blind and suffering in the cramped shelter.
The soldier took the dog away and came back crying, Trotsak said.
A radio was their only connection to the outside world and in April they heard reports of international efforts to help trapped civilians in Mariupol. “This gave us more strength, it felt as if … we might get out and it would all be over,” she said.
But when the evacuation day arrived, there were not enough spaces for everyone. Trotsak’s family were encouraged to go in the first wave because her mother has asthma, she said.
“Go ahead, get to Zaporizhzhia and grab a table at a cafe and … we’ll join you for a pizza,” she recalled one of the people saying who remained behind.
“Of course it was terribly uncomfortable for us that we went first.”
The group picked their way through the rubble around the plant, escorted by three Ukrainian soldiers. There was so much debris that the walk to the waiting buses, which should have taken 15 minutes, took two and half hours.
“Walking past the plant the day before yesterday, we saw that everything was ablaze in black smoke,” she said. “God forbid more shells hit near the bunkers where the civilians are.”
The port city, which before the war had 400,000 inhabitants, has seen the heaviest fighting so far of the conflict, which Moscow calls a “special military operation” to disarm Ukraine and defend its Russian-speaking population from fascists.
Kyiv and its Western supporters say Moscow’s fascism claim is a baseless pretext for an unprovoked war of aggression that has driven more than five million Ukrainians to flee abroad.
Trotsak and her family are staying at a hotel that has been commandeered to house evacuees, but Trotsak does not want to stay long and take up space for the many Mariupol evacuees she hopes will soon arrive in the relative safety of Zaporizhzhia.
“It’s peaceful, no sounds of explosions thank god. And I hope there never will be here any kind of booms here, just fireworks and thunder.”
Two women killed by Russian bombs as massive assault on Azovstal continues
Valentyna Romanenko, Iryna Balachuk – May 3, 2022
ukrpravda@gmail.com (Ukrayinska Pravda) – May 3, 2022
Two women were killed and around ten people were injured in a massive aerial bombardment of the Azovstal steelworks by Russian occupation forces. As of 4:15 pm, the fierce assault on the plant continues. Source: Azov Regiment Details: In a video released on 3 May by the plant’s defenders, a man describes the effects of the Russian bombardment and says that the bodies of two women have been recovered from under the rubble.
The Azov Regiment has promised to help with excavations, as there may be more people under the rubble. Quote: “We are urgently calling for the swift imposition of a ceasefire and an extension of the evacuation of civilians to safe Ukrainian-controlled territories.” At 4:15 pm, Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment Sviatoslav “Kalyna” Palamar reported that the assault on the plant was continuing and the defenders were doing everything they could to repel it.
Quote from Palamar: “As of this minute, a massive assault on the Azovstal plant is underway, supported by armoured vehicles and tanks, with attempts to land using boats and a large number of infantry. We will do all we can to repel this assault, but we are calling for immediate action to evacuate civilians.”
Background: On the afternoon of 3 May, Russian invaders launched an assault on the Azovstal steelworks, which is being defended by the Ukrainian Defence Forces in besieged Mariupol.
U.S. relieved as China appears to heed warnings on Russia
Steve Holland, Trevor Hunnicutt and David Brunnstrom
May 3, 2022
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Two months after warning that Beijing appeared poised to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine, senior U.S. officials say they have not detected overt Chinese military and economic support, a welcome development in the tense U.S.-China relationship.
U.S. officials told Reuters in recent days they remain wary about China’s long-standing support for Russia in general, but that the military and economic support that they worried about has not come to pass, at least for now. The relief comes at a pivotal time.
President Joe Biden is preparing for a trip to Asia later this month dominated by how to deal with the rise of China and his administration is soon to release his first national security strategy about the emergence of China as a great power.
“We have not seen the PRC provide direct military support to Russia’s war on Ukraine or engage in systematic efforts to help Russia evade our sanctions,” a Biden administration official told Reuters, referring to the People’s Republic of China.
“We continue to monitor for the PRC and any other country that might provide support to Russia or otherwise evade U.S. and partner sanctions.”
As well as steering clear of directly backing Russia’s war effort, China has avoided entering new contracts between its state oil refiners and Russia, despite steep discounts. In March its state-run Sinopec Group suspended talks about a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia.
Last month, the U.S. envoy to the United Nations hailed China’s abstentions on U.N. votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “win,” underscoring how Beijing’s enforced balancing act between Russia and the West may be the best outcome for Washington.
Still, China has refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and has criticized the sweeping Western sanctions on Moscow.
Trade volume between Russia and China also jumped in the first quarter, and the two declared a “no limits” partnership in February.
On Monday, Beijing’s Washington embassy issued a 30-page newsletter accusing the United States of spreading “falsehoods” to discredit China over Ukraine, including through a March press leak saying Russia had sought Chinese military help. The embassy noted that U.S. officials had since said they had seen no evidence of China providing such support.
Biden himself has not spoken of China helping Russia since telling reporters in Brussels March 24 that in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he “made sure he understood the consequences.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week China is dealing with the “significant reputational risk” of being Russia’s ally and that “for now we’re not seeing significant support from China for Russia’s military actions.”
Biden is to visit Tokyo and Seoul in what will be his first trip to Asia as president – one that won’t include a stop in China. He’ll meet with Indian and Australian leaders too, during a ‘Quad’ meeting in Tokyo.
China has made Russia a key part of its foreign policy strategy to counter the West. Biden aides were worried Xi was planning to provide direct support to Russian President Vladimir Putin as his campaign in Ukraine faced fierce setbacks, one U.S. official said.
They were heartened this has not happened so far, but Washington and its allies are continuing to closely monitor the level of assistance, the official said.
Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said stark warnings by the U.S. and European Union have paid off so far.
“There has been consistent messaging that if China does so it will face severe consequences. It appears that so far, the Chinese have not. It is feasible that the Chinese planned to provide military assistance and changed their minds,” she said.
However U.S. officials remain concerned about China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and what they say is its continued parroting of Russian disinformation.
Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on April 21 that Beijing had “repeatedly drawn false equivalencies between Russia’s war of aggression and Ukraine’s self-defensive actions.”
She added: “Let’s be clear, China’s already doing things that do not help this situation.”
(Reporting By Steve Holland, David Brunnstrom and Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Heather Timmons, Richard Pullin, William Maclean)
Russian military is now storming Mariupol steel factory, Ukrainian forces say
Greg Norman – May 3, 2022
Ukrainian forces at the Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol said Tuesday that Russia’s military is now storming the complex.
The move comes almost two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military not to storm the plant, but rather block off the last pocket of resistance in the besieged Ukrainian city.
Asked about reports in Ukrainian media that the plant was being bombarded, Sviatoslav Palamar, the deputy commander of the Azov Regiment that is holed up there, said “it is true.”
Vadim Astafyev, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, said Tuesday that Ukrainian fighters holed up at the plant “came out of the basements, took up firing positions on the territory and in the buildings of the plant.” Astafyev said Russian forces along with rebel forces from Donetsk were using “artillery and aircraft… to destroy these firing positions.”-
Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said earlier Tuesday that more than 200 civilians are still at the Azovstal factory following United Nations-assisted evacuation efforts there in recent days, according to Reuters.
Mariupol patrol police chief Mykhailo Vershinin also was quoted by Ukrainian television on Tuesday as saying that the Russian military “have started to storm the plant in several places.”
Denys Shlega, a commander of a brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard at Azovstal, said “the enemy is trying to storm the Azovstal plant with significant forces using armored vehicles.”
In a statement Tuesday, the U.N. said “101 civilians have successfully been evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and other areas in a safe passage operation coordinated by the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross.”
“Thanks to the operation, 101 women, men, children, and older persons could finally leave the bunkers below the Azovstal steelworks and see the daylight after two months,” said Osnat Lubrani, the U.N. Resident & Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine. “Another 58 people joined us in Manhush, a town on the outskirts of Mariupol.
“We have accompanied 127 people today to Zaporizhzhia, about [143 miles] northwest of Mariupol, where they are receiving initial humanitarian assistance, including health and psychological care, from UN agencies, ICRC and our humanitarian partners,” she added. “Some evacuees decided not to proceed towards Zaporizhzhia with the convoy.”
Ukraine invasion made Russia’s military ‘significantly weaker’ despite its defense budget doubling in the past 20 years, UK says
Sophia Ankel – May 3, 2022
n abandoned damaged Russian tank in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 13, 2022.Leon Klein/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Russian defense expenditure has grown significantly over the years, the UK said.
But the invasion of Ukraine has made the Russian military “significantly weaker,” it said.
Russia’s military is falling short in Ukraine, with reports describing low morale and elite troop losses.
The invasion of Ukraine has made Russia’s military “significantly weaker” despite its defense budget doubling in the past 20 years, the UK said Tuesday.
“Russia’s military is now significantly weakened, both materially and conceptually, as a result of its invasion of Ukraine,” the British Ministry of Defence tweeted in its daily intelligence report on Russia’s invasion.
“Recovering from this will be exacerbated by sanctions. This will have a lasting impact on Russia’s ability to deploy conventional military force,” it said.
The ministry added that while Russia’s defense budget had doubled from 2005 to 2018 — with major investments made in air, land, and sea capabilities — its new equipment has not helped it to “dominate Ukraine.”
In 2008, Russia’s then-defense minister, Anatoliy Serdyukov, announced a major structural reorganization of the country’s armed forces, calling it the New Look military modernization process.
The reorganization came after Russia’s weeklong war with Georgia that same year showed that its military still lacked operational capacities, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
But since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, multiple reports have described how Russian forces were still falling short in the face of staunch Ukrainian resistance.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, told the Ukrainian news outlet The New Voice of Ukraine on Monday: “All they spent money on was to show the greatness of the Russian army in the world. Now we have seen that there is no greatness at all.”
Ukraine’s defense ministry also said last month that Russia was failing to recruit new troops because potential conscripts were too afraid of dying in battle.
Budanov, the intelligence chief, suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin could officially declare war on May 9 as a way to prepare for mass mobilization.
Putin is under pressure to demonstrate he can show a victory by May 9, a Russian holiday that commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 and is usually marked with a military parade in front of the Kremlin.
“I have never uttered these words before because my mom swore me to never tell anyone. I think she’d want me to tell it now because in the end, all secrets stink. I had two brothers who were never born. My mom and dad dated when they were teens and dad knocked mom all the way up, twice. My mom looked like Marilyn Monroe in her youth. Several men at her funeral mentioned that she was the most beautiful woman they’d ever seen.
I was surprised my dad told me that as a teen after they’d been to war with one another. Mom was 16 the first time she had an abortion. She was lucky because Granny saved her money and bought her the tickets to go to New York to get it. Aunt Mickey married a big shot there so it was all easy peasy. Though my Granny was an evangelical, she knew the realities of being a teen mother and she wanted a better life for my mom.
The second one was almost the same. She went to New York quietly and came back. I never asked my dad if he knew but I suspect my Granny always hated him because of those two pregnancies. Mom told me she was lucky because she knew another girl who got pregnant and tried to use some Lysol to terminate her pregnancy. When that didn’t work, she perforated her uterus with a coat hanger. She bled to death.
Granny knew about this too which is why she didn’t get all high and mighty about it. You have to understand that I was as close to my mom as any other human being. We trusted each other. She told me everything. It was about two weeks before the cancer took her when she saw how ugly and spiteful my sisters were towards me and said, ‘I’m sorry I didn’t keep your brothers but I wasn’t ready to have them.’
It was the most intimate moment because she’d never told me they were boys. It was the moment when the reality of her impending death hit me like a bomb. She’d lived ten years past the three months they gave her to live and in that moment I knew she was telling me her deepest secret. I could feel the burden she carried floating away. In the moment, I was grateful I got to say all the things that mattered to her and that she said those things to me. I know how lucky I am to have known unconditional love. There is truly nothing like it. I miss it more than words can convey.
Mom was always a fighter. My mom was the kind of feminist that made Gloria Steinem look like Phyllis Schlafly. She was a 5’4” category 5 hurricane. Captain of the cheerleaders, she was loud too. I remember in 1976 when we went out to Poplar Level Road to the Board of Education when teachers were on strike in Louisville. She had her bullhorn leading everyone around the building. I got a blister on my foot and she carried me around hollering like only she could. She was a pistol.
When I awoke this morning to the news that Alito has written the majority decision to strike down Roe vs. Wade, I thought about what her NSFW response would be. All them Republican senators are lucky that she’s dead. She did not like men telling her what she could or could not do much to the chagrin of my Grandpa.
I cannot remember a day since I ran into Mitch McConnell in 1986 at a cocktail party where I did not absolutely hate the man. When Robert Bork was justly voted down to be a Supreme Court Justice, Mitch McConnell swore a blood oath that night that he would never lose another Supreme Court appointment and to the full horror of American women and corpse worms, Mitch has kept his blood oath.
If you are a semi-conscious sentient human being, it is important for you to understand now, at this moment, you are at war with the Republican Party and it is a just cause. It is important that we recognize our enemy and to not grant them the comfort of our silence.
So let us first recognize what overturning Roe v. Wade means. It means in no uncertain terms that if your mom or sister or wife are violently beaten and raped in the 30-odd states run by Republicans and they get pregnant, they have to give birth to the rapists’ child. If that happens in Oklahoma and the rape victim goes to a sane state to have an abortion, she can be sued by the rapist’s family. She will have to pay them $20,000 if she terminates her pregnancy. If any teenage girl is raped by any family member, she must give birth. If she tries to abort an incest baby, she will be prosecuted for murder.
In Alabama they are currently drafting legislation to make abortion a capital offense. There are no exceptions after 15 weeks. If you have an ectopic pregnancy, well it was nice knowing you, you die. It is important for now and forever to understand that literally *everything* a Republican says is a lie and it is meant to deceive. When Republicans bemoan ‘activist judges’ it is specifically because they only want *their* activists judges.
Remember how Republicans kept talking about cutting down on the ‘frivolous lawsuits’ but do not give a damn about Devin Nunes suing an imaginary cow? Or Trump suing to try and keep the people from knowing what he did while in office?
It’s because Republicans lie about big things and small. There is nothing valid in anything they say because they lie constantly. Marjorie Traitor Greene talked about Trump implementing ‘Marshall law” multiple times and when she’s put under oath and asked about that, ‘she doesn’t remember’. When they are caught lying, they lie even more.
Do not tolerate some ‘both sides are the same’ imbecile either. Democrats protect rights and Republicans strip them away if they offend their religious beliefs because they don’t care about the constitution! It’s like the Bible to them, they only care about the parts they like and throw the rest out because they don’t care. If you are upset about Republicans granting more rights to an actual corpse than living and breathing women then you have to stop pretending like the forces of evil are not determined to make the United States into the Gileade Margaret Atwood warned us about.
We have extremists Supreme Court Justices now who are more than willing to toss out the constitution because to them biblical law supersedes the constitution and that is exactly why Leonard Leo started the Federalist Society to get these perfectly coached Christian dominionists on the court.
Neil Gorsuch, Bret Kavanaugh, Sam Alito, Amy Barret and Clarence Thomas all testified that Roe v. Wade was ‘settled law’ in their confirmation hearings and each and every single one of them said that because Leonard Leo coached them to say that and whenever they were asked about some other case they were coached to say, ‘that case could be revisited by the court and it would be inappropriate for me to comment’ which isn’t an option to avoid answering questions you don’t want to answer.
They lied, all of them. They are political actors as dirty as Mitch McConnell bemoaning how people are talking about justices being political when they’re not. It’s a lie. They are gaslighting you. It is the only thing Republicans know to do.
When was the last time you heard any Republican say, ‘oops sorry I was wrong about that.’? It doesn’t happen because all of these cold-blooded miscreants think they are warriors in God’s service trying to bring the prophecy of the book of revelations to pass. They WANT war. They want all of the worst things in that disgusting book of fiction to happen like a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Religious extremists have been on a crusade against Roe from the beginning and now they have succeeded in imposing their primitive religious beliefs on the entire nation under the moronic notion of ‘states rights.’ All women in the United States are now second class citizens who do not get to enjoy the bodily autonomy we grant a corpse because we still respect the right of a corpse to keep its organs. The reason our founders made the separation of church and state their very first amendment is because they fully understood that religion and civilizations cannot coexist for long.
It took 240 years for Republicans to forget this very bloody fact and here we are at war with religious zealots on the Supreme Court who have abrogated 240 years of constitutional law in lieu of Catholic doctrine. Every single one of the justices voting to overthrow Roe are Catholic. And make no mistake either that Catholics believe that any form of birth control is abortifacient and that will be next up on the agenda and it’s going to be outlawed by the Republican states because Republicans have never and will never give a damn about individual liberty. They care about fighting for their god who they believe is good and righteous; which god is Satan.
It is right that women should be terrified of losing their right to bodily autonomy. As a partisan man, I rejoice at this grievous mistake the Supreme Court will make. The storm that will come this November will change the body politic forever. Republicans will not retake the house now. Two senators keep Joe Biden from appointing the four additional justices to fix this injustice by the Supreme Court majority who were put there by a vast minority.
This can be fixed if women are angry enough to convert their anger into votes. The storm is taking form tonight and it will build into a Republican calamity of epic proportions come November. Let that passion and fury nourish us all until then.”
Mexico to reroute trade railway connection from Texas to New Mexico due to Abbot’s $4 billion stunt.
Gabe Ortiz, Daily Kos Staff – May 03, 2022
“A Texas Department of Public Safety trooper inspects a commercial truck near the Pharr-Reynosa International bridge on April 13, 2022 in Pharr, Texas.”
Mexico has been planning a trade railway that spans thousands of miles from Mazatlán to Winnipeg, with a connection in Texas. But while the T-MEC Corridor railway connecting the two nations is still happening, the stop in Texas is not.
Mexican officials have now decided to instead reroute the line through New Mexico, The Dallas Morning News reports. It’s a major loss for Texas, because border states thrive and depend on international trade. But the state has only one person to blame for this change: Greg Abbott.
Mexican Economy Minister Tatiana Clouthier said Abbott’s political stunt forcing commercial vehicles to undergo redundant inspections caused officials to rethink the Texas connection, all but calling the right-wing governor too volatile to deal with. Abbott shut down his $4 billion stunt just ten days after announcing it, following intense bipartisan opposition ranging from fellow state Republicans to the White House.
“We’re now not going to use Texas,” Clouthier said in the report. “We can’t leave all the eggs in one basket and be hostages to someone who wants to use trade as a political tool.”
But despite Texas’ own data showing that the governor’s redundant inspections turned up precisely zero migrants or drugs, he’s threatened to reinstate the policy. Not because of some new perceived threat—but because he didn’t like critical remarks by Mexico’s president. That threat probably didn’t help Abbott’s case when it came to the rail line—but why should Mexican officials further deal with a hostile actor when there are far friendlier neighbors?
“Jerry Pacheco, president of the Santa Teresa-based Border Industrial Association, called Clouthier’s announcement ‘a very positive step for New Mexico,’ but cautioned that such a project will take years to complete and ‘anything can happen in that time,’” The Dallas Morning News said. Pacheco told the outlet that they hope this fosters a continued relationship even if there’s a snag with the line.
“If this particular project doesn’t work out, there’ll be other projects that the Mexican government will have and they’ll speak favorably of New Mexico because they know we want to work with them in a constructive way,” Pacheco continued. He noted that Abbott’s stunt forcing massive commercial delays led to higher traffic numbers for his state.
Economists in Texas have said Texas’ now-rescinded policy “will cost the equivalent of 77,000 job years for the country and 36,300 for Texas’ economy,” The Dallas Morning Newsrecently reported. Nationally, Abbott caused us roughly $9 billion in lost gross domestic product. But he’s also going to have to grapple with the interpersonal damage he created with his neighbor to the south (that is, if he even cares). The Dallas Morning News in its newer report said that Mexican Foreign Minster Marcelo Ebrard called Abbott’s policy extortion.
“I close the border and you have to sign whatever I say,” he said is what Abbott was forcing on them. “That’s not a deal; a deal is when you and I are in agreement on something.”
Ukraine Update: Surprise Ukrainian gains north of Kharkiv could impact battle for Donbas
Mark Sumner, Daily Kos Staff – May 03, 2022
Ukrainian servicemen on an armored personnel carrier (APC) not far from Kharkiv, April 30, 2022.
The big story today is that something not small happened over the last week. Since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine moved to what is being called the Battle of the Donbas, most actions seem to have taken place at a rate that roughly approximates the growth of fingernails. Here and there Russian forces have managed to advance, but far more often attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from towns and villages have been repulsed.
Sadly, because the area of the battle is close to the Russian border, Russia is able to defend the airspace with both planes and anti-aircraft systems working from across the border. That makes it difficult for Ukrainian aircraft to operate in the area and give Ukraine the kind of air support that would allow them to make large-scale counter attacks. So Russia keeps shelling, then tries to move forward. Then it shells some more. Russian losses are terrible. Ukrainian losses are also painfully high. But Ukraine has multiple prepared positions against just this kind of attack, and Russia has nothing like the ratio of forces necessary to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.
So, in most of eastern Ukraine, the fields are getting heavily fertilized with blood, and the muddy roads are getting heavily strewn with wreckage, but not much else is happening that looks like progress for either side.
Which only serves to make what’s happening north of Kharkiv more exciting.
Approximate situation in area north and east of Kharkiv.
Over the last week, Ukraine has mounted a steady counteroffensive directed at troops north of Kharkiv and west of the Siverskyi Donets River. Starting with Russian forces right on the doorstep of the battered city, Ukraine has pushed back through the suburbs, then into outlying towns and villages along multiple roadways. On the west, they’ve pressed in to take the town of Udy, less than 5 miles from the Russian border.
In what may be one of the most impressive moves of the second phase of the war, Ukrainian forces bypassed Russian forces in multiple villages, took a series of small roads, and entered the town of Staryi Saltiv on Sunday—a move so unexpected that when I first got reports of Ukrainian forces in the town, I disregarded them. After all, there were several other areas with Russian occupation “in the way.”
But the Ukrainian move into Staryi Saltiv was real, and though fighting in the town continues, it seems that Russian forces that were south of that location, but on the west bank of the Donets, have gone missing. In other words, they’ve withdrawn north or south before they could be cut off and chopped up in an isolated position. As a result, a whole chain of villages appears to have come back into Ukrainian-controlled territory without the need for a step-by-step fight.
Reports have indicated that the troops assigned to this area by Russia just are not very good, or that some of them are forced conscripts put in place by the Luhansk “republic.” Whatever the case, Ukraine has been able to shift them roughly 40 kilometers (25 miles) since the counterattack out of Kharkiv began.
However, it’s not clear that this will continue. Russian forces may be falling back in chaos, with Ukrainian forces chasing them to the border. On the other hand, they may be falling back behind lines being held by more stalwart troops, where they can get their act together and be plugged back into the line.
For Russia, the threat is not so much that Ukrainian forces will march to the border and just keep going. The threat is right there in Staryi Saltiv. That’s because this town is the site of a highly strategic bridge crossing. [Correction: The Ukrainian army blew up that bridge back on Mar 5 during the early stages of the invasion]. If they could push 15 miles north from there, they could reach Vovchans’k, a critically important road and rail junction. All the men and material coming in from Belgorod (20 miles northwest) passes through this point. As it stands, occupying Staryi Saltiv puts Ukrainian forces within artillery range of Russia’s major entry point.
These actions seem improbable. Even laughable. But then, so did the possibility of Ukraine suddenly showing up in Staryi Saltiv in the first place. Right now, pro-Ukraine Twitter is full of tweets like this one:
Meanwhile, pro-Russian Twitter is full of claims that the territory taken by Ukraine had “no military value,” that Russia only fell back to more important positions, and that by doing so it freed up forces to be used elsewhere.
Right now, the fog of war over what’s happening at Staryi Saltiv is a real pea-souper. But as we go through today, maybe it will be possible to tell what’s happening. If Ukraine continues to advance along those other roads moving north of Kharkiv, it may signal a general Russian withdrawal from the area west of the Donets. If Ukraine reports that it has put forces on the east side of that bridge, it will be a genuinely big deal—one that’s likely to demand Russia turn some force around from other efforts to secure its rear.
One thing to watch for soon: Look for what happens in the town of Shestakove and village of Fredirivka north of Kharkiv. These towns are sitting on a much better roadway between Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv. If Ukraine really intends to move a lot of force in that direction, expect these towns to become the focus of some attention Real Soon Now.
Retired Marine colonel is teaching Ukrainians how to fight
Ken Dilanian and Didi Martinez – May 3, 2022
Andy Milburn commanded a special operations task force fighting the Islamic State in Iraq.
But the retired Marine colonel says he’s never seen atrocities like the ones committed by the Russians in Ukraine.
“I have seen a lot of devastation and depravity of mankind,” he said. He was in Bucha, outside Kyiv, where the bodies of hundreds of massacred civilians, including children, were found after Russian forces were driven from the city. “Bucha — Bucha was something that really…left me numb for several days … family vehicles, every occupant killed, not just one or two, not just because soldiers were trigger happy but clearly targeted all along that road,” he said. “It just left me with such a feeling of contempt and anger that I never felt for the Islamic State, [that] I never felt for al Qaeda.”
Milburn, who retired in 2019 as deputy commander of U.S. special operations forces in the Middle East, traveled to Ukraine in March intending to cover the conflict as a journalist. But he quickly decided he needed to get involved.
“Just writing about stuff wasn’t really at all satisfying,” said Milburn, who spoke to NBC News from Kyiv.
Ukrainian special operations troops train with the Mozart Group. (Courtesy Andrew Milburn)
He formed the Mozart Group, drawing in other former British and American commandos to create a team of special operations veterans that trains and equips Ukrainian soldiers. The name was intended as a counterpoint to the Wagner Group, a notorious Russian mercenary organization. But Milburn says his group does not fight.
“It’s really important that we get guys in who are not adventure-seekers,” he said. “They’re not here to get their gun on, because they have moral clarity. They see a purpose here, and they want to be here for that reason.”
He says he has about 10 to 15 trainers in the country at any one time, all vetted by his contacts in the British and American militaries. All are volunteers.
Although Washington says it is sending billions in military aid, and Ukrainian officials says it has made a critical difference, Milburn says he’s seen little evidence of any reaching the front lines, at least among the Ukrainian special operations forces he is trying to help. Pentagon officials say they don’t have a good handle on what happens to the aid once it reaches Ukraine.
“They’re short of individual first aid kits, they’re short of body armor, they don’t have gloves, they don’t have eye protection, they don’t have ear protection,” Milburn said. “We saw a unit the other day where they evacuated six guys who have ruptured eardrums in one day. You know, I mean, the fixes for these things are easy.”
He’s been impressed, though, by the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers.
Knocking out Russian tanks has become “almost passe here,” he said. “There are guys who will, with a handheld weapon like the Javelin or the NLAW (antitank weapon) or an RPG, knock out two or three T-72s in the course of the day and not even think of it as worth discussing. Things that would get you a silver star or a Navy Cross in the U.S.”
Ukrainian special operations troops train with the Mozart Group. (Courtesy Andrew Milburn )
Milburn believes his team has made a difference. In addition to basic tactics, the Mozart Group has trained Ukrainians how to be snipers and how to remove landmines, he says, and they have also removed landmines themselves.
“I can tell you without any proof that I am confident that we have probably saved Ukrainian lives,” he said. “And I hope inflicted more pain on the Russians because of the training that they’ve had.”
But he says the conflict is in a new phase, “a grinding war of attrition … and that’s why it’s so important to tip the balance back in favor of the Ukrainians,” he said. “On one side, you’ve got mass, just a never-ending supply of personnel. The Russians are taking heavy casualties, but they just don’t care.”
Biden administration officials have discouraged Americans from going to fight in Ukraine. In March, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said “we urge them not to go” and that people who wanted to help Ukraine should donate to relief agencies instead. That same month, when asked about would-be military volunteers, White House Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre referred reporters to a State Department travel advisory that said Americans should not go to Ukraine and those there should leave immediately.
Tetyana Trotsak walks with her dog in front a hotel used as temporary shelter in Zaporizhzhia
